2004 WNBA Season
221 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Seattle Storm
1st Title
Runner-Up
Connecticut Sun
1
Biggest Overachiever
Los Angeles Sparks
4.78 wins above expected
25 wins · 20.22 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Houston Comets
4.58 wins below expected
13 wins · 17.58 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | Pct | GB | PPG | OPP | DIFF | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Liberty League | 18 | 16 | .529 | — | 66.2 | 67.6 | -1.3 | 17.00 | +1.00 |
| 2 | Connecticut Sun Playoffs | 18 | 16 | .529 | — | 68.7 | 67.8 | +0.9 | 17.45 | +0.55 |
| 3 | Detroit Shock Playoffs | 17 | 17 | .500 | 1 | 69.6 | 70.0 | -0.4 | 18.97 | -1.97 |
| 4 | Washington Mystics Playoffs | 17 | 17 | .500 | 1 | 68.4 | 70.1 | -1.7 | 14.23 | +2.77 |
| 5 | Charlotte Sting | 16 | 18 | .471 | 2 | 61.5 | 63.8 | -2.2 | 16.35 | -0.35 |
| 6 | Indiana Fever | 15 | 19 | .441 | 3 | 64.6 | 66.0 | -1.4 | 16.66 | -1.66 |
| # | Team | W | L | Pct | GB | PPG | OPP | DIFF | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Sparks League | 25 | 9 | .735 | — | 73.4 | 69.4 | +3.9 | 20.22 | +4.78 |
| 2 | Seattle Storm Playoffs | 20 | 14 | .588 | 5 | 71.7 | 66.6 | +5.1 | 19.39 | +0.61 |
| 3 | Sacramento Monarchs Playoffs | 18 | 16 | .529 | 7 | 68.0 | 65.9 | +2.1 | 17.96 | +0.04 |
| 4 | Minnesota Lynx Playoffs | 18 | 16 | .529 | 7 | 63.7 | 64.4 | -0.7 | 16.64 | +1.36 |
| 5 | Phoenix Mercury | 17 | 17 | .500 | 8 | 67.6 | 65.7 | +1.9 | 15.75 | +1.25 |
| 6 | Houston Comets | 13 | 21 | .382 | 12 | 64.0 | 65.0 | -1.0 | 17.58 | -4.58 |
| 7 | San Antonio Silver Stars | 9 | 25 | .265 | 16 | 64.4 | 69.5 | -5.1 | 12.77 | -3.77 |
Playoff Bracket
Eastern Conference
Conference Semifinals
Conference Final
Western Conference
Conference Semifinals
Conference Final
WNBA Finals
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks | Western | 1603 | 25 | 20.22 | +4.78 | 97.52% | 9 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 32 | |
| Seattle Storm | Western | 1563 | 20 | 19.39 | +0.61 | 65.85% | 9 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 29 | |
| Sacramento Monarchs | Western | 1556 | 18 | 17.96 | +0.04 | 57.80% | 6 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 28 | |
| Detroit Shock | Eastern | 1527 | 17 | 18.97 | -1.97 | 29.87% | 9 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 29 | |
| Connecticut Sun | Eastern | 1522 | 18 | 17.45 | +0.55 | 64.07% | 7 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 28 | |
| Phoenix Mercury | Western | 1498 | 17 | 15.75 | +1.25 | 73.36% | 6 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 26 | |
| Minnesota Lynx | Western | 1495 | 18 | 16.64 | +1.36 | 74.42% | 7 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 28 | |
| New York Liberty | Eastern | 1485 | 18 | 17.00 | +1.00 | 69.83% | 7 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 27 | |
| Washington Mystics | Eastern | 1470 | 17 | 14.23 | +2.77 | 87.42% | 5 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 25 | |
| Houston Comets | Western | 1469 | 13 | 17.58 | -4.58 | 7.27% | 7 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 27 | |
| Charlotte Sting | Eastern | 1460 | 16 | 16.35 | -0.35 | 51.98% | 7 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 27 | |
| Indiana Fever | Eastern | 1460 | 15 | 16.66 | -1.66 | 34.11% | 6 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 28 | |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | Western | 1392 | 9 | 12.77 | -3.77 | 11.46% | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 24 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Within Eastern
| Team | Sting | Sun | Shock | Fever | Liberty | Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Sting | — |
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
|
0-4
(1.8 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.0 exp.)
|
0-4
(2.0 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
|
| Connecticut Sun |
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
|
— |
3-1
(1.8 exp.)
|
4-0
(2.1 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.0 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.3 exp.)
|
| Detroit Shock |
4-0
(2.2 exp.)
|
1-3
(2.2 exp.)
|
— |
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.6 exp.)
|
| Indiana Fever |
1-3
(2.0 exp.)
|
0-4
(1.9 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
|
— |
3-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
|
| New York Liberty |
4-0
(2.0 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.0 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
|
1-3
(2.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-3
(2.3 exp.)
|
| Washington Mystics |
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
|
3-1
(1.7 exp.)
|
— |
Eastern vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Comets | Sparks | Lynx | Mercury | Monarchs | Stars | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Sting |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Connecticut Sun |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Detroit Shock |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Indiana Fever |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| New York Liberty |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Washington Mystics |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
Within Western
| Team | Comets | Sparks | Lynx | Mercury | Monarchs | Stars | Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Comets | — |
1-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-3
(2.2 exp.)
|
0-3
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.5 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Sparks |
2-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
— |
2-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.5 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
|
4-0
(2.9 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Lynx |
3-1
(1.8 exp.)
|
1-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
|
1-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Phoenix Mercury |
3-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
|
— |
1-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.3 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
|
| Sacramento Monarchs |
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
|
2-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
|
| San Antonio Silver Stars |
2-2
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-4
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
|
1-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
0-3
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Seattle Storm |
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
|
2-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
|
3-0
(2.1 exp.)
|
— |
Western vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Sting | Sun | Shock | Fever | Liberty | Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Comets |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Sparks |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Lynx |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Phoenix Mercury |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Sacramento Monarchs |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
| San Antonio Silver Stars |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Seattle Storm |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | 0.45% | 0.68% | 1.36% | 0.68% | — | — | 3.17% |
| 50–59 | 0.68% | 3.62% | 8.14% | 3.62% | 0.90% | — | 16.97% |
| 60–69 | 1.36% | 8.14% | 16.29% | 12.22% | 2.71% | 0.45% | 41.18% |
| 70–79 | 0.68% | 3.62% | 12.22% | 7.24% | 3.62% | 0.45% | 27.83% |
| 80–89 | — | 0.90% | 2.71% | 3.62% | 2.71% | — | 9.95% |
| 90+ | — | — | 0.45% | 0.45% | — | — | 0.90% |
| Total | 3.17% | 16.97% | 41.18% | 27.83% | 9.95% | 0.90% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 67.07 | 67.07 | +0.00 |
| SD | 9.61 | 9.61 | 11.76 |
| CV | 0.14 | 0.14 | — |
| Max | 97 | 97 | +36 |
| Min | 37 | 37 | -36 |
Games Played: 221
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2.94% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94% |
| 50–59 | — | 8.82% | 17.65% | 8.82% | 2.94% | — | 38.24% |
| 60–69 | 2.94% | 14.71% | 11.76% | 2.94% | 8.82% | — | 41.18% |
| 70–79 | 2.94% | — | 11.76% | — | 2.94% | — | 17.65% |
| 80–89 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 8.82% | 23.53% | 41.18% | 11.76% | 14.71% | — | 100% |
Charlotte Sting — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 61.53 | 63.76 | -2.24 |
| SD | 6.95 | 11.92 | 12.17 |
| CV | 0.11 | 0.19 | — |
| Max | 74 | 87 | +29 |
| Min | 46 | 37 | -32 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 50–59 | — | — | 14.71% | 5.88% | — | — | 20.59% |
| 60–69 | 2.94% | 5.88% | 14.71% | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | 29.41% |
| 70–79 | — | — | 23.53% | 11.76% | 2.94% | — | 38.24% |
| 80–89 | — | — | 5.88% | 5.88% | — | — | 11.76% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 2.94% | 5.88% | 58.82% | 26.47% | 5.88% | — | 100% |
Connecticut Sun — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 68.68 | 67.76 | +0.91 |
| SD | 8.58 | 7.90 | 10.30 |
| CV | 0.12 | 0.12 | — |
| Max | 83 | 85 | +20 |
| Min | 52 | 43 | -16 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 50–59 | — | 2.94% | 8.82% | — | — | — | 11.76% |
| 60–69 | — | 8.82% | 11.76% | 8.82% | 5.88% | 2.94% | 38.24% |
| 70–79 | — | — | 14.71% | 14.71% | 2.94% | — | 32.35% |
| 80–89 | — | — | 2.94% | 14.71% | — | — | 17.65% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 11.76% | 38.24% | 38.24% | 8.82% | 2.94% | 100% |
Detroit Shock — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 69.59 | 70.03 | -0.44 |
| SD | 8.81 | 9.81 | 11.67 |
| CV | 0.13 | 0.14 | — |
| Max | 88 | 97 | +19 |
| Min | 51 | 53 | -36 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | 2.94% | — | — | — | 2.94% |
| 50–59 | 2.94% | 5.88% | 11.76% | — | — | — | 20.59% |
| 60–69 | — | 14.71% | 11.76% | 26.47% | 2.94% | — | 55.88% |
| 70–79 | — | 5.88% | 2.94% | 5.88% | — | — | 14.71% |
| 80–89 | — | 2.94% | — | — | — | — | 2.94% |
| 90+ | — | — | 2.94% | — | — | — | 2.94% |
| Total | 2.94% | 29.41% | 32.35% | 32.35% | 2.94% | — | 100% |
Houston Comets — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 64.03 | 65.03 | -1.00 |
| SD | 8.92 | 8.10 | 12.04 |
| CV | 0.14 | 0.12 | — |
| Max | 97 | 82 | +36 |
| Min | 48 | 47 | -20 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2.94% | — | 2.94% | — | — | — | 5.88% |
| 50–59 | — | 5.88% | 8.82% | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | 20.59% |
| 60–69 | 2.94% | 2.94% | 20.59% | 5.88% | 5.88% | — | 38.24% |
| 70–79 | — | 5.88% | 14.71% | 8.82% | 2.94% | — | 32.35% |
| 80–89 | — | — | — | 2.94% | — | — | 2.94% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 5.88% | 14.71% | 47.06% | 20.59% | 11.76% | — | 100% |
Indiana Fever — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 64.65 | 66.03 | -1.38 |
| SD | 10.33 | 9.89 | 12.16 |
| CV | 0.16 | 0.15 | — |
| Max | 85 | 83 | +27 |
| Min | 37 | 42 | -31 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 50–59 | — | 2.94% | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | — | 8.82% |
| 60–69 | 2.94% | 5.88% | 11.76% | 5.88% | — | 2.94% | 29.41% |
| 70–79 | — | — | 11.76% | 17.65% | 2.94% | — | 32.35% |
| 80–89 | — | 2.94% | 8.82% | — | 11.76% | — | 23.53% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | 5.88% | — | — | 5.88% |
| Total | 2.94% | 11.76% | 35.29% | 32.35% | 14.71% | 2.94% | 100% |
Los Angeles Sparks — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 73.38 | 69.44 | +3.94 |
| SD | 10.12 | 10.08 | 11.75 |
| CV | 0.14 | 0.15 | — |
| Max | 96 | 93 | +31 |
| Min | 51 | 49 | -26 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | — | — | 5.88% |
| 50–59 | 2.94% | 8.82% | 8.82% | 8.82% | — | — | 29.41% |
| 60–69 | — | 11.76% | 23.53% | 5.88% | 2.94% | — | 44.12% |
| 70–79 | — | — | 11.76% | 2.94% | — | — | 14.71% |
| 80–89 | — | — | — | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | 5.88% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 2.94% | 23.53% | 47.06% | 20.59% | 5.88% | — | 100% |
Minnesota Lynx — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 63.68 | 64.41 | -0.74 |
| SD | 9.80 | 8.56 | 10.01 |
| CV | 0.15 | 0.13 | — |
| Max | 85 | 88 | +16 |
| Min | 44 | 47 | -23 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | 5.88% | 2.94% | — | — | 8.82% |
| 50–59 | — | 2.94% | — | 5.88% | — | — | 8.82% |
| 60–69 | — | 8.82% | 26.47% | 11.76% | 2.94% | — | 50.00% |
| 70–79 | — | 2.94% | 11.76% | 5.88% | 5.88% | — | 26.47% |
| 80–89 | — | — | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | — | 5.88% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 14.71% | 47.06% | 29.41% | 8.82% | — | 100% |
New York Liberty — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 66.24 | 67.56 | -1.32 |
| SD | 9.39 | 8.52 | 10.97 |
| CV | 0.14 | 0.13 | — |
| Max | 80 | 88 | +17 |
| Min | 43 | 52 | -26 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | — | 2.94% | — | — | 2.94% |
| 50–59 | — | 2.94% | 5.88% | 2.94% | — | — | 11.76% |
| 60–69 | 2.94% | 11.76% | 5.88% | 14.71% | 2.94% | — | 38.24% |
| 70–79 | — | 11.76% | 17.65% | 5.88% | 5.88% | — | 41.18% |
| 80–89 | — | 2.94% | — | 2.94% | — | — | 5.88% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 2.94% | 29.41% | 29.41% | 29.41% | 8.82% | — | 100% |
Phoenix Mercury — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 67.65 | 65.74 | +1.91 |
| SD | 8.57 | 8.95 | 12.56 |
| CV | 0.13 | 0.14 | — |
| Max | 87 | 82 | +32 |
| Min | 45 | 46 | -27 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 50–59 | — | — | 8.82% | — | — | — | 8.82% |
| 60–69 | 2.94% | 14.71% | 17.65% | 14.71% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 70–79 | 2.94% | — | 14.71% | 2.94% | 8.82% | — | 29.41% |
| 80–89 | — | — | — | 8.82% | 2.94% | — | 11.76% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 5.88% | 14.71% | 41.18% | 26.47% | 11.76% | — | 100% |
Sacramento Monarchs — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 68.00 | 65.91 | +2.09 |
| SD | 8.12 | 9.98 | 10.44 |
| CV | 0.12 | 0.15 | — |
| Max | 85 | 85 | +26 |
| Min | 50 | 47 | -14 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | 5.88% | — | — | — | — | 5.88% |
| 50–59 | 2.94% | 2.94% | 11.76% | 5.88% | 2.94% | — | 26.47% |
| 60–69 | — | 2.94% | 11.76% | 20.59% | — | — | 35.29% |
| 70–79 | — | 2.94% | 5.88% | 5.88% | 5.88% | — | 20.59% |
| 80–89 | — | — | 5.88% | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | 11.76% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 2.94% | 14.71% | 35.29% | 35.29% | 11.76% | — | 100% |
San Antonio Silver Stars — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 64.44 | 69.53 | -5.09 |
| SD | 9.71 | 9.70 | 11.78 |
| CV | 0.15 | 0.14 | — |
| Max | 82 | 87 | +17 |
| Min | 47 | 44 | -32 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 50–59 | — | 2.94% | 5.88% | — | 2.94% | — | 11.76% |
| 60–69 | — | — | 20.59% | 14.71% | — | — | 35.29% |
| 70–79 | 2.94% | 11.76% | 5.88% | 5.88% | 2.94% | — | 29.41% |
| 80–89 | — | 2.94% | 5.88% | — | 11.76% | — | 20.59% |
| 90+ | — | — | 2.94% | — | — | — | 2.94% |
| Total | 2.94% | 17.65% | 41.18% | 20.59% | 17.65% | — | 100% |
Seattle Storm — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 71.68 | 66.59 | +5.09 |
| SD | 9.89 | 9.82 | 12.67 |
| CV | 0.14 | 0.15 | — |
| Max | 93 | 85 | +32 |
| Min | 55 | 45 | -25 |
Games Played: 34
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | <50 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | — | — | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | — | 5.88% |
| 50–59 | — | — | — | 2.94% | — | — | 2.94% |
| 60–69 | — | 2.94% | 23.53% | 23.53% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 70–79 | — | 5.88% | 11.76% | 5.88% | 2.94% | 5.88% | 32.35% |
| 80–89 | — | — | 2.94% | 2.94% | 2.94% | — | 8.82% |
| 90+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 8.82% | 41.18% | 38.24% | 5.88% | 5.88% | 100% |
Washington Mystics — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 68.38 | 70.12 | -1.74 |
| SD | 9.40 | 9.68 | 12.22 |
| CV | 0.14 | 0.14 | — |
| Max | 84 | 96 | +20 |
| Min | 41 | 54 | -29 |
Games Played: 34
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Sparks | 25 | 20.22 | +4.78 |
| 2 | Washington Mystics | 17 | 14.23 | +2.77 |
| 3 | Minnesota Lynx | 18 | 16.64 | +1.36 |
| 4 | Phoenix Mercury | 17 | 15.75 | +1.25 |
| 5 | New York Liberty | 18 | 17.00 | +1.00 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Comets | 13 | 17.58 | -4.58 |
| 2 | San Antonio Silver Stars | 9 | 12.77 | -3.77 |
| 3 | Detroit Shock | 17 | 18.97 | -1.97 |
| 4 | Indiana Fever | 15 | 16.66 | -1.66 |
| 5 | Charlotte Sting | 16 | 16.35 | -0.35 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Liberty | 6 | May 23 – Jun 5 | 1 in 109 |
| 2 | Minnesota Lynx | 6 | Jul 9 – Jul 22 | 1 in 83 |
| 3 | Seattle Storm | 6 | Jun 3 – Jun 19 | 1 in 56 |
| 4 | Connecticut Sun | 6 | Jun 20 – Jul 6 | 1 in 53 |
| 5 | Washington Mystics | 5 | Sep 7 – Sep 17 | 1 in 49 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Liberty | 6 | Jun 11 – Jun 24 | 1 in 110 |
| 2 | Detroit Shock | 4 | Jun 25 – Jul 3 | 1 in 37 |
| 3 | Houston Comets | 5 | Jun 30 – Jul 14 | 1 in 29 |
| 4 | San Antonio Silver Stars | 9 | Jul 18 – Sep 4 | 1 in 24 |
| 5 | Indiana Fever | 6 | Jul 19 – Jul 31 | 1 in 21 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Shock | 38.36% | 23.04% | 16.00% | 11.45% | 7.32% | 3.83% |
| Connecticut Sun | 19.06% | 21.03% | 18.87% | 17.04% | 14.75% | 9.25% |
| New York Liberty | 15.67% | 18.80% | 18.48% | 18.29% | 16.86% | 11.90% |
| Indiana Fever | 12.99% | 16.51% | 18.69% | 18.88% | 18.71% | 14.22% |
| Charlotte Sting | 11.01% | 14.45% | 17.96% | 20.25% | 19.80% | 16.53% |
| Washington Mystics | 2.91% | 6.17% | 10.00% | 14.09% | 22.56% | 44.27% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks | 38.73% | 24.01% | 16.19% | 10.69% | 6.07% | 3.30% | 1.01% |
| Seattle Storm | 26.91% | 24.04% | 18.36% | 13.51% | 9.77% | 5.81% | 1.60% |
| Sacramento Monarchs | 13.31% | 17.36% | 19.65% | 18.16% | 15.80% | 11.33% | 4.39% |
| Houston Comets | 10.88% | 15.72% | 17.74% | 19.01% | 16.87% | 13.83% | 5.95% |
| Minnesota Lynx | 6.16% | 11.19% | 14.33% | 18.12% | 20.39% | 19.20% | 10.61% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 3.68% | 6.68% | 11.01% | 15.60% | 20.79% | 25.54% | 16.70% |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 0.33% | 1.00% | 2.72% | 4.91% | 10.31% | 20.99% | 59.74% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks | 27.95% | 17.78% | 13.33% | 9.92% | 8.37% | 6.37% | 5.03% | 3.80% | 2.82% | 1.90% | 1.54% | 0.72% | 0.47% |
| Seattle Storm | 18.84% | 15.31% | 12.74% | 11.53% | 9.25% | 7.62% | 6.78% | 5.26% | 4.39% | 3.73% | 2.40% | 1.52% | 0.63% |
| Detroit Shock | 14.47% | 14.33% | 12.77% | 10.97% | 9.82% | 8.63% | 7.20% | 6.30% | 5.19% | 4.14% | 3.00% | 2.14% | 1.04% |
| Sacramento Monarchs | 8.37% | 9.77% | 10.21% | 9.91% | 10.15% | 9.54% | 9.77% | 7.58% | 7.08% | 6.52% | 5.56% | 3.70% | 1.84% |
| Houston Comets | 6.94% | 8.37% | 9.19% | 9.33% | 9.55% | 9.39% | 8.53% | 8.71% | 8.56% | 7.35% | 6.61% | 4.59% | 2.88% |
| Connecticut Sun | 5.82% | 8.25% | 8.55% | 9.45% | 9.49% | 9.57% | 8.99% | 9.08% | 8.26% | 7.38% | 6.92% | 5.30% | 2.94% |
| New York Liberty | 4.39% | 6.73% | 7.56% | 8.48% | 8.65% | 8.95% | 9.20% | 9.24% | 9.64% | 8.71% | 7.57% | 6.60% | 4.28% |
| Indiana Fever | 3.87% | 5.12% | 6.71% | 7.47% | 8.27% | 8.38% | 9.09% | 9.72% | 9.63% | 9.83% | 8.83% | 7.94% | 5.14% |
| Minnesota Lynx | 3.79% | 5.01% | 6.74% | 7.50% | 8.01% | 8.78% | 9.09% | 9.71% | 9.10% | 9.73% | 9.59% | 7.44% | 5.51% |
| Charlotte Sting | 2.86% | 4.43% | 5.40% | 6.92% | 7.46% | 8.38% | 9.26% | 9.92% | 9.91% | 10.60% | 9.70% | 9.31% | 5.85% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 2.00% | 3.39% | 4.20% | 4.70% | 6.13% | 7.75% | 8.59% | 9.40% | 10.40% | 11.00% | 12.19% | 11.05% | 9.20% |
| Washington Mystics | 0.52% | 1.16% | 1.94% | 2.64% | 3.57% | 4.43% | 5.66% | 7.16% | 8.97% | 10.57% | 13.96% | 18.89% | 20.53% |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 0.18% | 0.35% | 0.66% | 1.18% | 1.28% | 2.21% | 2.81% | 4.12% | 6.05% | 8.54% | 12.13% | 20.80% | 39.69% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Shock | 38.36% | 23.04% | 16.00% | 11.45% | 11.15% |
| Connecticut Sun | 19.06% | 21.03% | 18.87% | 17.04% | 24.00% |
| New York Liberty | 15.67% | 18.80% | 18.48% | 18.29% | 28.76% |
| Indiana Fever | 12.99% | 16.51% | 18.69% | 18.88% | 32.93% |
| Charlotte Sting | 11.01% | 14.45% | 17.96% | 20.25% | 36.33% |
| Washington Mystics | 2.91% | 6.17% | 10.00% | 14.09% | 66.83% |
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks | 38.73% | 24.01% | 16.19% | 10.69% | 10.38% |
| Seattle Storm | 26.91% | 24.04% | 18.36% | 13.51% | 17.18% |
| Sacramento Monarchs | 13.31% | 17.36% | 19.65% | 18.16% | 31.52% |
| Houston Comets | 10.88% | 15.72% | 17.74% | 19.01% | 36.65% |
| Minnesota Lynx | 6.16% | 11.19% | 14.33% | 18.12% | 50.20% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 3.68% | 6.68% | 11.01% | 15.60% | 63.03% |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 0.33% | 1.00% | 2.72% | 4.91% | 91.04% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Semifinals | Advanced to Finals | Won Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks | 89.62% | 61.62% | 39.74% | 28.16% |
| Seattle Storm | 82.82% | 47.27% | 24.23% | 15.47% |
| Detroit Shock | 88.85% | 53.45% | 31.20% | 12.88% |
| Sacramento Monarchs | 68.48% | 36.31% | 17.56% | 10.74% |
| Connecticut Sun | 76.00% | 44.56% | 24.84% | 9.70% |
| New York Liberty | 71.24% | 34.54% | 15.91% | 5.37% |
| Charlotte Sting | 63.67% | 26.18% | 11.27% | 3.58% |
| Indiana Fever | 67.07% | 27.56% | 11.22% | 3.58% |
| Minnesota Lynx | 49.80% | 18.21% | 6.41% | 3.22% |
| Houston Comets | 63.35% | 20.96% | 6.66% | 2.91% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 36.97% | 13.88% | 5.10% | 2.53% |
| Washington Mystics | 33.17% | 13.71% | 5.56% | 1.75% |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 8.96% | 1.75% | 0.30% | 0.11% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charlotte Sting | Connecticut Sun | Detroit Shock | Indiana Fever | New York Liberty | Washington Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Sting | 5.13% | 6.91% | 6.10% | 5.94% | 2.10% | |
| Connecticut Sun | 9.26% | 10.27% | 10.60% | 10.08% | 4.35% | |
| Detroit Shock | 12.55% | 10.59% | 12.17% | 11.54% | 6.60% | |
| Indiana Fever | 5.92% | 5.84% | 6.62% | 6.42% | 2.76% | |
| New York Liberty | 7.41% | 7.46% | 7.88% | 8.14% | 3.65% | |
| Washington Mystics | 2.35% | 2.42% | 3.72% | 2.50% | 2.72% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Houston Comets | Los Angeles Sparks | Minnesota Lynx | Phoenix Mercury | Sacramento Monarchs | San Antonio Silver Stars | Seattle Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Comets | 4.58% | 3.44% | 2.24% | 4.24% | 0.73% | 5.73% | |
| Los Angeles Sparks | 14.29% | 11.82% | 8.49% | 12.34% | 2.63% | 12.05% | |
| Minnesota Lynx | 3.92% | 4.00% | 1.97% | 3.26% | 0.39% | 4.67% | |
| Phoenix Mercury | 3.15% | 2.94% | 1.92% | 2.22% | 0.27% | 3.38% | |
| Sacramento Monarchs | 8.47% | 7.78% | 5.71% | 3.89% | 1.24% | 9.22% | |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 0.33% | 0.30% | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.30% | 0.50% | |
| Seattle Storm | 12.23% | 8.40% | 8.56% | 6.32% | 9.81% | 1.95% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charlotte Sting | Connecticut Sun | Detroit Shock | Indiana Fever | New York Liberty | Washington Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Sting | 2.71% | 3.63% | 1.88% | 2.17% | 0.88% | |
| Connecticut Sun | 4.24% | 8.43% | 4.69% | 5.11% | 2.37% | |
| Detroit Shock | 5.43% | 8.74% | 5.97% | 8.09% | 2.97% | |
| Indiana Fever | 1.99% | 2.72% | 3.57% | 2.19% | 0.75% | |
| New York Liberty | 2.43% | 4.26% | 5.21% | 2.83% | 1.18% | |
| Washington Mystics | 0.82% | 1.29% | 1.41% | 0.97% | 1.07% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Houston Comets | Los Angeles Sparks | Minnesota Lynx | Phoenix Mercury | Sacramento Monarchs | San Antonio Silver Stars | Seattle Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Comets | 2.17% | 0.84% | 0.72% | 1.20% | 0.07% | 1.66% | |
| Los Angeles Sparks | 6.29% | 5.10% | 3.87% | 10.15% | 0.64% | 13.69% | |
| Minnesota Lynx | 1.04% | 1.98% | 0.52% | 1.09% | 0.09% | 1.69% | |
| Phoenix Mercury | 0.76% | 1.54% | 0.40% | 1.03% | 0.13% | 1.24% | |
| Sacramento Monarchs | 2.43% | 6.50% | 2.23% | 1.51% | 0.18% | 4.71% | |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.05% | |
| Seattle Storm | 3.73% | 9.58% | 3.20% | 2.12% | 5.26% | 0.34% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charlotte Sting | Connecticut Sun | Detroit Shock | Houston Comets | Indiana Fever | Los Angeles Sparks | Minnesota Lynx | New York Liberty | Phoenix Mercury | Sacramento Monarchs | San Antonio Silver Stars | Seattle Storm | Washington Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Sting | 0.35% | 1.22% | 0.33% | 0.27% | 0.56% | 0.03% | 0.82% | ||||||
| Connecticut Sun | 0.84% | 3.08% | 0.90% | 0.70% | 1.76% | 0.04% | 2.38% | ||||||
| Detroit Shock | 1.48% | 3.91% | 1.12% | 0.92% | 2.43% | 0.05% | 2.97% | ||||||
| Houston Comets | 0.27% | 0.66% | 0.83% | 0.41% | 0.55% | 0.19% | |||||||
| Indiana Fever | 0.34% | 1.06% | 0.27% | 0.21% | 0.77% | 0.02% | 0.91% | ||||||
| Los Angeles Sparks | 3.42% | 6.66% | 8.58% | 3.27% | 4.54% | 1.69% | |||||||
| Minnesota Lynx | 0.33% | 0.72% | 0.98% | 0.47% | 0.56% | 0.16% | |||||||
| New York Liberty | 0.55% | 1.76% | 0.41% | 0.35% | 1.03% | 0.02% | 1.25% | ||||||
| Phoenix Mercury | 0.26% | 0.66% | 0.59% | 0.41% | 0.43% | 0.18% | |||||||
| Sacramento Monarchs | 1.37% | 2.38% | 3.23% | 1.39% | 1.74% | 0.63% | |||||||
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | ||||||||
| Seattle Storm | 2.03% | 4.02% | 4.08% | 1.69% | 2.70% | 0.95% | |||||||
| Washington Mystics | 0.19% | 0.55% | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.43% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Advanced to Semifinals | Advanced to Finals | Won Finals | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Storm | 68.25% | 29.50% | 19.10% | Won Finals |
| Connecticut Sun | 53.36% | 31.08% | 11.19% | Eliminated in Finals |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Connecticut Sun | Detroit Shock | New York Liberty | Washington Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut Sun | 53.36% | |||
| Detroit Shock | 46.64% | |||
| New York Liberty | 58.14% | |||
| Washington Mystics | 41.86% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Los Angeles Sparks | Minnesota Lynx | Sacramento Monarchs | Seattle Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks | 64.47% | |||
| Minnesota Lynx | 31.75% | |||
| Sacramento Monarchs | 35.53% | |||
| Seattle Storm | 68.25% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Connecticut Sun | Detroit Shock | New York Liberty | Washington Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut Sun | 16.14% | 14.94% | ||
| Detroit Shock | 14.81% | 12.64% | ||
| New York Liberty | 14.58% | 12.61% | ||
| Washington Mystics | 7.70% | 6.58% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Los Angeles Sparks | Minnesota Lynx | Sacramento Monarchs | Seattle Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks | 15.31% | 27.82% | ||
| Minnesota Lynx | 5.55% | 4.95% | ||
| Sacramento Monarchs | 5.94% | 10.93% | ||
| Seattle Storm | 15.79% | 13.71% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Connecticut Sun | Detroit Shock | Los Angeles Sparks | Minnesota Lynx | New York Liberty | Sacramento Monarchs | Seattle Storm | Washington Mystics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut Sun | 3.93% | 1.77% | 2.12% | 3.37% | ||||
| Detroit Shock | 3.84% | 1.23% | 1.75% | 3.39% | ||||
| Los Angeles Sparks | 9.89% | 8.06% | 8.63% | 4.58% | ||||
| Minnesota Lynx | 1.59% | 1.39% | 1.58% | 0.94% | ||||
| New York Liberty | 2.77% | 1.44% | 1.49% | 2.33% | ||||
| Sacramento Monarchs | 3.02% | 2.89% | 3.11% | 1.76% | ||||
| Seattle Storm | 5.39% | 4.90% | 5.84% | 2.97% | ||||
| Washington Mystics | 1.43% | 0.56% | 0.73% | 1.31% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-05-21 | Houston Comets | L 53-60 | 1494.71 | 1521.69 | 56.87% | 43.13% | -8.77 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-22 | @ Washington Mystics | W 71-68 | 1485.94 | 1454.48 | 43.76% | 56.24% | +5.68 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-28 | Indiana Fever | W 63-41 | 1491.62 | 1490.16 | 60.83% | 39.17% | +10.71 | 2-1 |
| 2004-06-01 | New York Liberty | L 53-63 | 1502.33 | 1513.09 | 59.14% | 40.86% | -10.91 | 2-2 |
| 2004-06-03 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 62-71 | 1491.42 | 1493.53 | 39.08% | 60.92% | -6.83 | 2-3 |
| 2004-06-05 | @ Indiana Fever | L 57-70 | 1484.59 | 1494.79 | 37.97% | 62.03% | -7.98 | 2-4 |
| 2004-06-09 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 68-82 | 1476.61 | 1525.15 | 32.93% | 67.07% | -7.19 | 2-5 |
| 2004-06-11 | @ Phoenix Mercury | W 59-51 | 1469.42 | 1465.24 | 39.94% | 60.06% | +9.91 | 3-5 |
| 2004-06-15 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 59-57 | 1479.33 | 1439.04 | 66.01% | 33.99% | +2.80 | 4-5 |
| 2004-06-18 | @ Connecticut Sun | W 63-58 | 1482.13 | 1497.84 | 37.23% | 62.77% | +8.18 | 5-5 |
| 2004-06-20 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 68-63 | 1490.31 | 1546.80 | 52.67% | 47.33% | +6.17 | 6-5 |
| 2004-06-23 | Detroit Shock | L 60-65 | 1496.48 | 1558.40 | 51.89% | 48.11% | -6.76 | 6-6 |
| 2004-06-26 | Indiana Fever | W 46-37 | 1489.72 | 1510.99 | 57.67% | 42.33% | +7.40 | 7-6 |
| 2004-07-01 | Phoenix Mercury | L 59-71 | 1497.12 | 1468.62 | 64.47% | 35.53% | -13.02 | 7-7 |
| 2004-07-03 | @ Houston Comets | W 62-55 | 1484.10 | 1518.85 | 34.71% | 65.29% | +10.07 | 8-7 |
| 2004-07-08 | Seattle Storm | W 70-67 | 1494.17 | 1560.70 | 51.22% | 48.78% | +4.93 | 9-7 |
| 2004-07-10 | Washington Mystics | W 67-65 | 1499.10 | 1460.47 | 65.80% | 34.20% | +2.82 | 10-7 |
| 2004-07-15 | @ Washington Mystics | L 54-68 | 1501.92 | 1457.65 | 45.58% | 54.42% | -9.95 | 10-8 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ New York Liberty | L 58-75 | 1491.97 | 1470.91 | 42.30% | 57.70% | -10.16 | 10-9 |
| 2004-07-20 | New York Liberty | L 74-80 | 1481.81 | 1481.08 | 60.73% | 39.27% | -8.68 | 10-10 |
| 2004-07-23 | @ Detroit Shock | L 53-63 | 1473.13 | 1507.28 | 34.79% | 65.21% | -6.41 | 10-11 |
| 2004-07-24 | Washington Mystics | W 70-41 | 1466.72 | 1458.79 | 61.72% | 38.28% | +12.02 | 11-11 |
| 2004-07-28 | @ Indiana Fever | W 63-53 | 1478.74 | 1481.32 | 39.01% | 60.99% | +11.24 | 12-11 |
| 2004-07-31 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 61-62 | 1489.98 | 1530.99 | 33.89% | 66.11% | -1.97 | 12-12 |
| 2004-08-01 | @ Seattle Storm | L 55-87 | 1488.01 | 1569.67 | 28.86% | 71.14% | -9.52 | 12-13 |
| 2004-09-01 | Connecticut Sun | W 62-55 | 1478.49 | 1484.14 | 59.85% | 40.15% | +6.19 | 13-13 |
| 2004-09-02 | @ New York Liberty | L 52-56 | 1484.68 | 1499.40 | 37.36% | 62.64% | -4.36 | 13-14 |
| 2004-09-04 | Detroit Shock | L 58-66 | 1480.32 | 1509.10 | 56.62% | 43.38% | -9.33 | 13-15 |
| 2004-09-08 | @ Minnesota Lynx | W 72-68 | 1470.99 | 1503.21 | 35.04% | 64.96% | +7.57 | 14-15 |
| 2004-09-09 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 74-69 | 1478.56 | 1545.64 | 51.14% | 48.86% | +6.37 | 15-15 |
| 2004-09-11 | Minnesota Lynx | W 60-50 | 1484.93 | 1500.63 | 58.46% | 41.54% | +7.66 | 16-15 |
| 2004-09-15 | Connecticut Sun | L 67-81 | 1492.59 | 1507.58 | 58.55% | 41.45% | -12.77 | 16-16 |
| 2004-09-17 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | L 65-82 | 1479.82 | 1379.25 | 53.67% | 46.33% | -12.90 | 16-17 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ Detroit Shock | L 54-68 | 1466.92 | 1519.77 | 32.38% | 67.62% | -7.07 | 16-18 |
| 2004-05-22 | Phoenix Mercury | L 58-65 | 1506.98 | 1441.77 | 69.15% | 30.85% | -10.66 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-25 | Houston Comets | L 57-68 | 1496.32 | 1524.03 | 56.77% | 43.23% | -10.98 | 0-2 |
| 2004-05-27 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 82-73 | 1485.34 | 1538.51 | 53.14% | 46.86% | +8.19 | 1-2 |
| 2004-06-03 | Charlotte Sting | W 71-62 | 1493.53 | 1491.42 | 60.92% | 39.08% | +6.84 | 2-2 |
| 2004-06-04 | @ Washington Mystics | W 72-63 | 1500.37 | 1440.77 | 47.78% | 52.22% | +9.13 | 3-2 |
| 2004-06-06 | Detroit Shock | L 73-74 | 1509.50 | 1536.42 | 56.88% | 43.12% | -3.31 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-09 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 59-75 | 1506.19 | 1454.36 | 46.67% | 53.33% | -10.89 | 3-4 |
| 2004-06-11 | @ Seattle Storm | L 63-68 | 1495.30 | 1532.58 | 34.38% | 65.62% | -4.48 | 3-5 |
| 2004-06-12 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | W 83-76 | 1490.82 | 1513.49 | 36.30% | 63.70% | +9.83 | 4-5 |
| 2004-06-14 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 74-76 | 1500.65 | 1540.02 | 34.11% | 65.89% | -2.81 | 4-6 |
| 2004-06-18 | Charlotte Sting | L 58-63 | 1497.84 | 1482.13 | 62.77% | 37.23% | -8.19 | 4-7 |
| 2004-06-20 | Washington Mystics | W 75-65 | 1489.65 | 1436.01 | 67.72% | 32.28% | +5.96 | 5-7 |
| 2004-06-22 | @ Indiana Fever | W 63-58 | 1495.61 | 1513.84 | 36.89% | 63.11% | +8.22 | 6-7 |
| 2004-06-25 | Detroit Shock | W 71-67 | 1503.83 | 1565.16 | 51.97% | 48.03% | +5.60 | 7-7 |
| 2004-06-27 | @ Detroit Shock | W 74-72 | 1509.43 | 1559.56 | 32.73% | 67.27% | +5.55 | 8-7 |
| 2004-06-30 | Washington Mystics | W 78-69 | 1514.98 | 1437.36 | 70.66% | 29.34% | +5.13 | 9-7 |
| 2004-07-06 | Indiana Fever | W 79-77 | 1520.11 | 1503.13 | 62.94% | 37.06% | +3.06 | 10-7 |
| 2004-07-09 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 70-85 | 1523.17 | 1504.59 | 63.15% | 36.85% | -14.26 | 10-8 |
| 2004-07-11 | @ Indiana Fever | W 65-61 | 1508.91 | 1503.02 | 40.18% | 59.82% | +6.97 | 11-8 |
| 2004-07-14 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 63-66 | 1515.88 | 1481.64 | 44.16% | 55.84% | -4.46 | 11-9 |
| 2004-07-15 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | L 67-78 | 1511.42 | 1406.67 | 54.27% | 45.73% | -10.49 | 11-10 |
| 2004-07-17 | @ Houston Comets | L 56-72 | 1500.93 | 1504.69 | 38.85% | 61.15% | -9.06 | 11-11 |
| 2004-07-21 | @ Detroit Shock | W 78-68 | 1491.87 | 1519.14 | 35.69% | 64.31% | +11.86 | 12-11 |
| 2004-07-22 | Minnesota Lynx | L 52-68 | 1503.73 | 1497.87 | 61.43% | 38.57% | -14.33 | 12-12 |
| 2004-07-24 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 69-55 | 1489.40 | 1402.43 | 71.76% | 28.24% | +6.16 | 13-12 |
| 2004-07-30 | @ Washington Mystics | L 68-69 | 1495.56 | 1438.16 | 47.47% | 52.53% | -2.77 | 13-13 |
| 2004-07-31 | @ New York Liberty | L 66-80 | 1492.79 | 1490.75 | 39.65% | 60.35% | -8.65 | 13-14 |
| 2004-09-01 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 55-62 | 1484.14 | 1478.49 | 40.15% | 59.85% | -6.19 | 13-15 |
| 2004-09-03 | New York Liberty | W 61-43 | 1477.95 | 1503.76 | 57.04% | 42.96% | +10.63 | 14-15 |
| 2004-09-10 | @ New York Liberty | W 77-66 | 1488.58 | 1483.55 | 40.06% | 59.94% | +11.59 | 15-15 |
| 2004-09-12 | Seattle Storm | W 71-64 | 1500.17 | 1561.87 | 51.92% | 48.08% | +7.41 | 16-15 |
| 2004-09-15 | @ Charlotte Sting | W 81-67 | 1507.58 | 1492.59 | 41.45% | 58.55% | +12.78 | 17-15 |
| 2004-09-17 | New York Liberty | L 66-69 | 1520.36 | 1473.49 | 66.86% | 33.14% | -6.75 | 17-16 |
| 2004-09-19 | Indiana Fever | W 80-60 | 1513.61 | 1468.34 | 66.65% | 33.35% | +8.69 | 18-16 |
| 2004-05-22 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 73-60 | 1548.19 | 1470.80 | 50.34% | 49.66% | +10.44 | 1-0 |
| 2004-05-26 | @ New York Liberty | L 52-64 | 1558.63 | 1496.44 | 48.15% | 51.85% | -9.72 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-29 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 60-63 | 1548.91 | 1530.31 | 63.16% | 36.84% | -6.38 | 1-2 |
| 2004-06-02 | Washington Mystics | L 63-65 | 1542.53 | 1434.65 | 74.13% | 25.87% | -6.11 | 1-3 |
| 2004-06-06 | @ Connecticut Sun | W 74-73 | 1536.42 | 1509.50 | 43.12% | 56.88% | +3.31 | 2-3 |
| 2004-06-09 | @ Indiana Fever | W 83-79 | 1539.73 | 1502.77 | 44.54% | 55.46% | +6.47 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-11 | @ Washington Mystics | W 74-60 | 1546.20 | 1431.63 | 55.67% | 44.33% | +9.67 | 4-3 |
| 2004-06-12 | Indiana Fever | W 72-68 | 1555.87 | 1504.07 | 67.48% | 32.52% | +3.79 | 5-3 |
| 2004-06-19 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | W 84-74 | 1559.66 | 1506.44 | 46.87% | 53.13% | +9.80 | 6-3 |
| 2004-06-22 | Washington Mystics | L 72-78 | 1569.46 | 1430.06 | 77.46% | 22.54% | -11.06 | 6-4 |
| 2004-06-23 | @ Charlotte Sting | W 65-60 | 1558.40 | 1496.48 | 48.11% | 51.89% | +6.76 | 7-4 |
| 2004-06-25 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 67-71 | 1565.16 | 1503.83 | 48.03% | 51.97% | -5.60 | 7-5 |
| 2004-06-27 | Connecticut Sun | L 72-74 | 1559.56 | 1509.43 | 67.27% | 32.73% | -5.55 | 7-6 |
| 2004-06-29 | Indiana Fever | L 68-69 | 1554.01 | 1503.59 | 67.31% | 32.69% | -3.92 | 7-7 |
| 2004-07-03 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 70-78 | 1550.09 | 1464.32 | 51.55% | 48.45% | -8.50 | 7-8 |
| 2004-07-06 | Houston Comets | W 82-63 | 1541.59 | 1508.78 | 65.04% | 34.96% | +8.88 | 8-8 |
| 2004-07-10 | Seattle Storm | W 70-65 | 1550.47 | 1555.77 | 59.90% | 40.10% | +5.23 | 9-8 |
| 2004-07-12 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 51-67 | 1555.70 | 1510.41 | 66.66% | 33.34% | -15.54 | 9-9 |
| 2004-07-15 | @ Houston Comets | L 61-97 | 1540.16 | 1488.37 | 46.66% | 53.34% | -16.32 | 9-10 |
| 2004-07-16 | @ Indiana Fever | L 73-85 | 1523.84 | 1502.51 | 42.33% | 57.67% | -8.55 | 9-11 |
| 2004-07-18 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 77-71 | 1515.29 | 1417.16 | 73.04% | 26.96% | +3.85 | 10-11 |
| 2004-07-21 | Connecticut Sun | L 68-78 | 1519.14 | 1491.87 | 64.31% | 35.69% | -11.86 | 10-12 |
| 2004-07-23 | Charlotte Sting | W 63-53 | 1507.28 | 1473.13 | 65.21% | 34.79% | +6.41 | 11-12 |
| 2004-07-24 | @ New York Liberty | L 69-78 | 1513.69 | 1489.75 | 42.70% | 57.30% | -7.47 | 11-13 |
| 2004-07-28 | @ Washington Mystics | W 73-65 | 1506.22 | 1446.77 | 47.76% | 52.24% | +8.62 | 12-13 |
| 2004-07-30 | New York Liberty | W 88-79 | 1514.84 | 1497.22 | 63.03% | 36.97% | +6.47 | 13-13 |
| 2004-08-01 | Minnesota Lynx | L 58-59 | 1521.31 | 1499.77 | 63.55% | 36.45% | -3.71 | 13-14 |
| 2004-09-01 | Phoenix Mercury | L 58-63 | 1517.60 | 1483.47 | 65.21% | 34.79% | -8.50 | 13-15 |
| 2004-09-04 | @ Charlotte Sting | W 66-58 | 1509.10 | 1480.32 | 43.38% | 56.62% | +9.34 | 14-15 |
| 2004-09-08 | @ Seattle Storm | L 67-86 | 1518.44 | 1558.21 | 34.05% | 65.95% | -8.66 | 14-16 |
| 2004-09-09 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 63-81 | 1509.78 | 1593.54 | 28.62% | 71.38% | -7.08 | 14-17 |
| 2004-09-11 | @ Phoenix Mercury | W 80-72 | 1502.70 | 1523.17 | 36.59% | 63.41% | +10.46 | 15-17 |
| 2004-09-14 | New York Liberty | W 82-71 | 1513.16 | 1474.35 | 65.82% | 34.18% | +6.61 | 16-17 |
| 2004-09-19 | Charlotte Sting | W 68-54 | 1519.77 | 1466.92 | 67.62% | 32.38% | +7.06 | 17-17 |
| 2004-05-20 | San Antonio Silver Stars | L 55-64 | 1534.00 | 1458.49 | 70.40% | 29.60% | -12.31 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-21 | @ Charlotte Sting | W 60-53 | 1521.69 | 1494.71 | 43.13% | 56.87% | +8.77 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-23 | @ New York Liberty | L 62-68 | 1530.46 | 1490.01 | 45.04% | 54.96% | -6.43 | 1-2 |
| 2004-05-25 | @ Connecticut Sun | W 68-57 | 1524.03 | 1496.32 | 43.23% | 56.77% | +10.98 | 2-2 |
| 2004-05-30 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 63-57 | 1535.01 | 1513.02 | 63.61% | 36.39% | +5.19 | 3-2 |
| 2004-06-01 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 63-73 | 1540.20 | 1460.74 | 50.64% | 49.36% | -9.33 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-03 | New York Liberty | L 62-71 | 1530.87 | 1523.99 | 61.57% | 38.43% | -10.77 | 3-4 |
| 2004-06-05 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 75-71 | 1520.10 | 1529.90 | 59.28% | 40.72% | +4.75 | 4-4 |
| 2004-06-09 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 59-47 | 1524.85 | 1449.91 | 70.33% | 29.67% | +5.99 | 5-4 |
| 2004-06-12 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 69-66 | 1530.84 | 1443.92 | 51.71% | 48.29% | +4.87 | 6-4 |
| 2004-06-18 | Seattle Storm | L 63-69 | 1535.71 | 1554.06 | 58.09% | 41.91% | -8.29 | 6-5 |
| 2004-06-19 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 58-66 | 1527.42 | 1482.69 | 45.65% | 54.35% | -7.53 | 6-6 |
| 2004-06-22 | @ Seattle Storm | W 63-57 | 1519.89 | 1571.05 | 32.60% | 67.40% | +9.63 | 7-6 |
| 2004-06-25 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 55-61 | 1529.52 | 1496.64 | 43.96% | 56.04% | -6.28 | 7-7 |
| 2004-06-27 | Washington Mystics | W 72-67 | 1523.24 | 1441.12 | 71.19% | 28.81% | +3.75 | 8-7 |
| 2004-06-30 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 50-58 | 1526.99 | 1456.17 | 49.39% | 50.61% | -8.14 | 8-8 |
| 2004-07-03 | Charlotte Sting | L 55-62 | 1518.85 | 1484.10 | 65.29% | 34.71% | -10.07 | 8-9 |
| 2004-07-06 | @ Detroit Shock | L 63-82 | 1508.78 | 1541.59 | 34.96% | 65.04% | -8.89 | 8-10 |
| 2004-07-10 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 56-59 | 1499.89 | 1574.19 | 50.10% | 49.90% | -5.06 | 8-11 |
| 2004-07-14 | @ Indiana Fever | L 62-70 | 1494.83 | 1496.05 | 39.20% | 60.80% | -6.46 | 8-12 |
| 2004-07-15 | Detroit Shock | W 97-61 | 1488.37 | 1540.16 | 53.34% | 46.66% | +16.32 | 9-12 |
| 2004-07-17 | Connecticut Sun | W 72-56 | 1504.69 | 1500.93 | 61.15% | 38.85% | +9.06 | 10-12 |
| 2004-07-23 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 67-70 | 1513.75 | 1584.12 | 30.22% | 69.78% | -3.05 | 10-13 |
| 2004-07-24 | @ Seattle Storm | L 63-67 | 1510.70 | 1567.84 | 31.85% | 68.15% | -3.71 | 10-14 |
| 2004-07-27 | Seattle Storm | W 80-55 | 1506.99 | 1571.55 | 51.51% | 48.49% | +14.13 | 11-14 |
| 2004-07-31 | Indiana Fever | W 62-54 | 1521.12 | 1470.08 | 67.39% | 32.61% | +5.38 | 12-14 |
| 2004-09-01 | Minnesota Lynx | L 64-72 | 1526.50 | 1503.47 | 63.75% | 36.25% | -10.51 | 12-15 |
| 2004-09-03 | Phoenix Mercury | L 60-70 | 1515.99 | 1491.97 | 63.88% | 36.12% | -11.78 | 12-16 |
| 2004-09-09 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | L 72-77 | 1504.21 | 1365.58 | 59.05% | 40.95% | -7.70 | 12-17 |
| 2004-09-12 | @ Washington Mystics | L 63-75 | 1496.51 | 1445.33 | 46.57% | 53.43% | -9.40 | 12-18 |
| 2004-09-14 | Minnesota Lynx | W 70-59 | 1487.11 | 1492.97 | 59.82% | 40.18% | +7.77 | 13-18 |
| 2004-09-16 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 62-71 | 1494.88 | 1532.69 | 55.34% | 44.66% | -9.68 | 13-19 |
| 2004-09-18 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 48-68 | 1485.20 | 1542.37 | 31.84% | 68.16% | -8.30 | 13-20 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 64-78 | 1476.90 | 1489.63 | 37.63% | 62.37% | -8.21 | 13-21 |
| 2004-05-21 | New York Liberty | W 69-67 | 1490.77 | 1493.29 | 60.29% | 39.71% | +3.27 | 1-0 |
| 2004-05-23 | Washington Mystics | L 67-68 | 1494.04 | 1448.80 | 66.65% | 33.35% | -3.88 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-28 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 41-63 | 1490.16 | 1491.62 | 39.17% | 60.83% | -10.71 | 1-2 |
| 2004-06-01 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 79-60 | 1479.45 | 1477.58 | 39.62% | 60.38% | +15.34 | 2-2 |
| 2004-06-05 | Charlotte Sting | W 70-57 | 1494.79 | 1484.59 | 62.03% | 37.97% | +7.98 | 3-2 |
| 2004-06-09 | Detroit Shock | L 79-83 | 1502.77 | 1539.73 | 55.46% | 44.54% | -6.47 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-11 | @ New York Liberty | W 72-68 | 1496.30 | 1541.22 | 33.39% | 66.61% | +7.77 | 4-3 |
| 2004-06-12 | @ Detroit Shock | L 68-72 | 1504.07 | 1555.87 | 32.52% | 67.48% | -3.79 | 4-4 |
| 2004-06-16 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 63-50 | 1500.28 | 1503.67 | 60.17% | 39.83% | +8.37 | 5-4 |
| 2004-06-19 | New York Liberty | W 70-65 | 1508.65 | 1511.90 | 60.19% | 39.81% | +5.19 | 6-4 |
| 2004-06-22 | Connecticut Sun | L 58-63 | 1513.84 | 1495.61 | 63.11% | 36.89% | -8.22 | 6-5 |
| 2004-06-25 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 71-67 | 1505.62 | 1553.67 | 53.87% | 46.13% | +5.37 | 7-5 |
| 2004-06-26 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 37-46 | 1510.99 | 1489.72 | 42.33% | 57.67% | -7.40 | 7-6 |
| 2004-06-29 | @ Detroit Shock | W 69-68 | 1503.59 | 1554.01 | 32.69% | 67.31% | +3.93 | 8-6 |
| 2004-07-01 | @ Washington Mystics | L 64-69 | 1507.52 | 1432.23 | 50.04% | 49.96% | -6.53 | 8-7 |
| 2004-07-03 | Phoenix Mercury | W 61-60 | 1500.99 | 1481.64 | 63.26% | 36.74% | +2.14 | 9-7 |
| 2004-07-06 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 77-79 | 1503.13 | 1520.11 | 37.06% | 62.94% | -3.05 | 9-8 |
| 2004-07-08 | Minnesota Lynx | W 58-56 | 1500.08 | 1472.82 | 64.31% | 35.69% | +2.94 | 10-8 |
| 2004-07-11 | Connecticut Sun | L 61-65 | 1503.02 | 1508.91 | 59.82% | 40.18% | -6.97 | 10-9 |
| 2004-07-14 | Houston Comets | W 70-62 | 1496.05 | 1494.83 | 60.80% | 39.20% | +6.46 | 11-9 |
| 2004-07-16 | Detroit Shock | W 85-73 | 1502.51 | 1523.84 | 57.67% | 42.33% | +8.55 | 12-9 |
| 2004-07-19 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 51-82 | 1511.06 | 1567.29 | 31.96% | 68.04% | -10.37 | 12-10 |
| 2004-07-22 | @ Seattle Storm | L 54-59 | 1500.69 | 1563.78 | 31.11% | 68.89% | -4.06 | 12-11 |
| 2004-07-24 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 56-71 | 1496.63 | 1478.08 | 41.94% | 58.06% | -9.47 | 12-12 |
| 2004-07-25 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 62-71 | 1487.16 | 1532.16 | 33.38% | 66.62% | -5.84 | 12-13 |
| 2004-07-28 | Charlotte Sting | L 53-63 | 1481.32 | 1478.74 | 60.99% | 39.01% | -11.24 | 12-14 |
| 2004-07-31 | @ Houston Comets | L 54-62 | 1470.08 | 1521.12 | 32.61% | 67.39% | -5.38 | 12-15 |
| 2004-09-01 | @ Washington Mystics | W 75-58 | 1464.70 | 1453.20 | 40.96% | 59.04% | +14.19 | 13-15 |
| 2004-09-03 | @ Minnesota Lynx | W 69-61 | 1478.89 | 1513.98 | 34.66% | 65.34% | +10.78 | 14-15 |
| 2004-09-04 | Washington Mystics | W 69-42 | 1489.67 | 1439.01 | 67.34% | 32.66% | +9.89 | 15-15 |
| 2004-09-10 | San Antonio Silver Stars | L 65-82 | 1499.56 | 1373.27 | 76.11% | 23.89% | -18.30 | 15-16 |
| 2004-09-13 | Seattle Storm | L 70-76 | 1481.26 | 1554.45 | 50.27% | 49.73% | -7.17 | 15-17 |
| 2004-09-16 | @ New York Liberty | L 71-77 | 1474.09 | 1467.74 | 40.24% | 59.76% | -5.75 | 15-18 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 60-80 | 1468.34 | 1513.61 | 33.35% | 66.65% | -8.69 | 15-19 |
| 2004-05-22 | @ Seattle Storm | L 67-93 | 1539.45 | 1517.11 | 42.47% | 57.53% | -12.63 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-25 | @ Washington Mystics | W 95-79 | 1526.82 | 1452.69 | 49.87% | 50.13% | +11.69 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-27 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 73-82 | 1538.51 | 1485.34 | 46.86% | 53.14% | -8.20 | 1-2 |
| 2004-05-29 | @ Detroit Shock | W 63-60 | 1530.31 | 1548.91 | 36.84% | 63.16% | +6.38 | 2-2 |
| 2004-06-01 | Seattle Storm | W 73-70 | 1536.69 | 1521.44 | 62.71% | 37.29% | +3.77 | 3-2 |
| 2004-06-03 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 51-68 | 1540.46 | 1507.83 | 43.93% | 56.07% | -10.56 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-05 | @ Houston Comets | L 71-75 | 1529.90 | 1520.10 | 40.72% | 59.28% | -4.75 | 3-4 |
| 2004-06-09 | Charlotte Sting | W 82-68 | 1525.15 | 1476.61 | 67.07% | 32.93% | +7.18 | 4-4 |
| 2004-06-11 | Minnesota Lynx | W 69-55 | 1532.33 | 1501.52 | 64.78% | 35.22% | +7.69 | 5-4 |
| 2004-06-14 | Connecticut Sun | W 76-74 | 1540.02 | 1500.65 | 65.89% | 34.11% | +2.81 | 6-4 |
| 2004-06-18 | @ Phoenix Mercury | W 76-74 | 1542.83 | 1455.34 | 51.79% | 48.21% | +3.97 | 7-4 |
| 2004-06-20 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 63-68 | 1546.80 | 1490.31 | 47.33% | 52.67% | -6.17 | 7-5 |
| 2004-06-22 | @ New York Liberty | W 65-49 | 1540.63 | 1506.71 | 44.11% | 55.89% | +13.04 | 8-5 |
| 2004-06-25 | @ Indiana Fever | L 67-71 | 1553.67 | 1505.62 | 46.13% | 53.87% | -5.38 | 8-6 |
| 2004-06-27 | @ Minnesota Lynx | W 83-67 | 1548.29 | 1467.65 | 50.81% | 49.19% | +11.47 | 9-6 |
| 2004-06-29 | New York Liberty | W 69-65 | 1559.76 | 1494.08 | 69.21% | 30.79% | +3.59 | 10-6 |
| 2004-07-02 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 87-80 | 1563.35 | 1420.46 | 77.81% | 22.19% | +3.42 | 11-6 |
| 2004-07-07 | Phoenix Mercury | W 73-71 | 1566.77 | 1479.50 | 71.79% | 28.21% | +2.33 | 12-6 |
| 2004-07-09 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 66-61 | 1569.10 | 1417.04 | 60.91% | 39.09% | +5.09 | 13-6 |
| 2004-07-10 | @ Houston Comets | W 59-56 | 1574.19 | 1499.89 | 49.90% | 50.10% | +5.06 | 14-6 |
| 2004-07-17 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 70-79 | 1579.25 | 1520.25 | 68.39% | 31.61% | -11.96 | 14-7 |
| 2004-07-19 | Indiana Fever | W 82-51 | 1567.29 | 1511.06 | 68.04% | 31.96% | +10.38 | 15-7 |
| 2004-07-21 | Washington Mystics | W 96-76 | 1577.67 | 1459.69 | 75.23% | 24.77% | +6.45 | 16-7 |
| 2004-07-23 | Houston Comets | W 70-67 | 1584.12 | 1513.75 | 69.78% | 30.22% | +3.06 | 17-7 |
| 2004-07-29 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | W 85-80 | 1587.18 | 1538.00 | 46.29% | 53.71% | +7.00 | 18-7 |
| 2004-07-31 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 79-67 | 1594.18 | 1382.69 | 68.69% | 31.31% | +6.32 | 19-7 |
| 2004-09-01 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 77-69 | 1600.50 | 1376.37 | 84.84% | 15.16% | +2.50 | 20-7 |
| 2004-09-03 | Seattle Storm | W 82-81 | 1603.00 | 1568.17 | 65.30% | 34.70% | +2.02 | 21-7 |
| 2004-09-08 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 58-72 | 1605.02 | 1511.69 | 52.63% | 47.37% | -11.48 | 21-8 |
| 2004-09-09 | Detroit Shock | W 81-63 | 1593.54 | 1509.78 | 71.38% | 28.62% | +7.08 | 22-8 |
| 2004-09-12 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 65-52 | 1600.62 | 1539.27 | 68.68% | 31.32% | +6.59 | 23-8 |
| 2004-09-14 | Phoenix Mercury | W 73-60 | 1607.21 | 1512.72 | 72.63% | 27.37% | +5.75 | 24-8 |
| 2004-09-17 | Minnesota Lynx | L 66-78 | 1612.96 | 1485.20 | 76.27% | 23.73% | -15.40 | 24-9 |
| 2004-09-18 | @ Seattle Storm | W 83-80 | 1597.56 | 1568.89 | 43.37% | 56.63% | +5.72 | 25-9 |
| 2004-05-20 | @ Seattle Storm | L 85-88 | 1492.31 | 1513.43 | 36.51% | 63.49% | -3.69 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-22 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | W 69-61 | 1488.62 | 1532.14 | 33.57% | 66.43% | +10.96 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-26 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | L 44-56 | 1499.58 | 1460.36 | 44.86% | 55.14% | -9.06 | 1-2 |
| 2004-05-28 | Washington Mystics | W 73-62 | 1490.52 | 1441.00 | 67.19% | 32.81% | +6.34 | 2-2 |
| 2004-05-30 | New York Liberty | L 64-68 | 1496.86 | 1506.17 | 59.35% | 40.65% | -6.92 | 2-3 |
| 2004-06-03 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 55-47 | 1489.94 | 1462.24 | 64.37% | 35.63% | +5.88 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-05 | Phoenix Mercury | W 76-68 | 1495.82 | 1460.06 | 65.42% | 34.58% | +5.70 | 4-3 |
| 2004-06-11 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 55-69 | 1501.52 | 1532.33 | 35.22% | 64.78% | -7.69 | 4-4 |
| 2004-06-17 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 50-60 | 1493.83 | 1495.29 | 60.43% | 39.57% | -11.14 | 4-5 |
| 2004-06-19 | Houston Comets | W 66-58 | 1482.69 | 1527.42 | 54.35% | 45.65% | +7.53 | 5-5 |
| 2004-06-22 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 46-69 | 1490.22 | 1451.36 | 44.81% | 55.19% | -12.53 | 5-6 |
| 2004-06-24 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | L 57-70 | 1477.69 | 1418.05 | 47.79% | 52.21% | -10.04 | 5-7 |
| 2004-06-27 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 67-83 | 1467.65 | 1548.29 | 49.19% | 50.81% | -11.48 | 5-8 |
| 2004-06-30 | Houston Comets | W 58-50 | 1456.17 | 1526.99 | 50.61% | 49.39% | +8.15 | 6-8 |
| 2004-07-03 | Detroit Shock | W 78-70 | 1464.32 | 1550.09 | 48.45% | 51.55% | +8.50 | 7-8 |
| 2004-07-08 | @ Indiana Fever | L 56-58 | 1472.82 | 1500.08 | 35.69% | 64.31% | -2.94 | 7-9 |
| 2004-07-09 | Phoenix Mercury | W 61-59 | 1469.88 | 1477.17 | 59.63% | 40.37% | +3.32 | 8-9 |
| 2004-07-11 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 83-73 | 1473.20 | 1518.85 | 54.22% | 45.78% | +8.44 | 9-9 |
| 2004-07-14 | Connecticut Sun | W 66-63 | 1481.64 | 1515.88 | 55.84% | 44.16% | +4.46 | 10-9 |
| 2004-07-15 | @ New York Liberty | W 69-66 | 1486.10 | 1476.91 | 40.64% | 59.36% | +6.00 | 11-9 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ Phoenix Mercury | W 63-60 | 1492.10 | 1467.27 | 42.83% | 57.17% | +5.77 | 12-9 |
| 2004-07-22 | @ Connecticut Sun | W 68-52 | 1497.87 | 1503.73 | 38.57% | 61.43% | +14.33 | 13-9 |
| 2004-07-23 | @ Washington Mystics | L 61-65 | 1512.20 | 1453.23 | 47.69% | 52.31% | -5.56 | 13-10 |
| 2004-07-28 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 66-53 | 1506.64 | 1396.27 | 74.41% | 25.59% | +5.38 | 14-10 |
| 2004-07-30 | Seattle Storm | L 55-70 | 1512.02 | 1557.41 | 54.25% | 45.75% | -12.25 | 14-11 |
| 2004-08-01 | @ Detroit Shock | W 59-58 | 1499.77 | 1521.31 | 36.45% | 63.55% | +3.70 | 15-11 |
| 2004-09-01 | @ Houston Comets | W 72-64 | 1503.47 | 1526.50 | 36.25% | 63.75% | +10.51 | 16-11 |
| 2004-09-03 | Indiana Fever | L 61-69 | 1513.98 | 1478.89 | 65.34% | 34.66% | -10.77 | 16-12 |
| 2004-09-08 | Charlotte Sting | L 68-72 | 1503.21 | 1470.99 | 64.96% | 35.04% | -7.58 | 16-13 |
| 2004-09-10 | Seattle Storm | W 64-61 | 1495.63 | 1566.86 | 50.55% | 49.45% | +5.00 | 17-13 |
| 2004-09-11 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 50-60 | 1500.63 | 1484.93 | 41.54% | 58.46% | -7.66 | 17-14 |
| 2004-09-14 | @ Houston Comets | L 59-70 | 1492.97 | 1487.11 | 40.18% | 59.82% | -7.77 | 17-15 |
| 2004-09-17 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | W 78-66 | 1485.20 | 1612.96 | 23.73% | 76.27% | +15.40 | 18-15 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 63-72 | 1500.60 | 1550.67 | 32.74% | 67.26% | -5.72 | 18-16 |
| 2004-05-21 | @ Indiana Fever | L 67-69 | 1493.29 | 1490.77 | 39.71% | 60.29% | -3.28 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-23 | Houston Comets | W 68-62 | 1490.01 | 1530.46 | 54.96% | 45.04% | +6.43 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-26 | Detroit Shock | W 64-52 | 1496.44 | 1558.63 | 51.85% | 48.15% | +9.73 | 2-1 |
| 2004-05-30 | @ Minnesota Lynx | W 68-64 | 1506.17 | 1496.86 | 40.65% | 59.35% | +6.92 | 3-1 |
| 2004-06-01 | @ Charlotte Sting | W 63-53 | 1513.09 | 1502.33 | 40.86% | 59.14% | +10.90 | 4-1 |
| 2004-06-03 | @ Houston Comets | W 71-62 | 1523.99 | 1530.87 | 38.43% | 61.57% | +10.77 | 5-1 |
| 2004-06-05 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 62-57 | 1534.76 | 1456.36 | 50.48% | 49.52% | +6.46 | 6-1 |
| 2004-06-11 | Indiana Fever | L 68-72 | 1541.22 | 1496.30 | 66.61% | 33.39% | -7.77 | 6-2 |
| 2004-06-13 | @ Washington Mystics | L 60-62 | 1533.45 | 1421.96 | 55.23% | 44.77% | -4.55 | 6-3 |
| 2004-06-15 | Seattle Storm | L 62-86 | 1528.90 | 1537.06 | 59.51% | 40.49% | -17.00 | 6-4 |
| 2004-06-19 | @ Indiana Fever | L 65-70 | 1511.90 | 1508.65 | 39.81% | 60.19% | -5.19 | 6-5 |
| 2004-06-22 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 49-65 | 1506.71 | 1540.63 | 55.89% | 44.11% | -13.03 | 6-6 |
| 2004-06-24 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 60-72 | 1493.68 | 1463.89 | 43.53% | 56.47% | -8.79 | 6-7 |
| 2004-06-26 | @ Seattle Storm | W 67-62 | 1484.89 | 1561.42 | 29.47% | 70.53% | +9.19 | 7-7 |
| 2004-06-29 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 65-69 | 1494.08 | 1559.76 | 30.79% | 69.21% | -3.59 | 7-8 |
| 2004-07-01 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 47-73 | 1490.49 | 1507.76 | 37.02% | 62.98% | -11.00 | 7-9 |
| 2004-07-06 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 73-66 | 1479.49 | 1511.35 | 56.18% | 43.82% | +6.76 | 8-9 |
| 2004-07-08 | Washington Mystics | L 54-71 | 1486.25 | 1444.56 | 66.19% | 33.81% | -15.92 | 8-10 |
| 2004-07-11 | Phoenix Mercury | W 77-69 | 1470.33 | 1473.84 | 60.15% | 39.85% | +6.58 | 9-10 |
| 2004-07-15 | Minnesota Lynx | L 66-69 | 1476.91 | 1486.10 | 59.36% | 40.64% | -6.00 | 9-11 |
| 2004-07-18 | Charlotte Sting | W 75-58 | 1470.91 | 1491.97 | 57.70% | 42.30% | +10.17 | 10-11 |
| 2004-07-20 | @ Charlotte Sting | W 80-74 | 1481.08 | 1481.81 | 39.27% | 60.73% | +8.67 | 11-11 |
| 2004-07-24 | Detroit Shock | W 78-69 | 1489.75 | 1513.69 | 57.30% | 42.70% | +7.47 | 12-11 |
| 2004-07-30 | @ Detroit Shock | L 79-88 | 1497.22 | 1514.84 | 36.97% | 63.03% | -6.47 | 12-12 |
| 2004-07-31 | Connecticut Sun | W 80-66 | 1490.75 | 1492.79 | 60.35% | 39.65% | +8.65 | 13-12 |
| 2004-09-02 | Charlotte Sting | W 56-52 | 1499.40 | 1484.68 | 62.64% | 37.36% | +4.36 | 14-12 |
| 2004-09-03 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 43-61 | 1503.76 | 1477.95 | 42.96% | 57.04% | -10.63 | 14-13 |
| 2004-09-09 | @ Washington Mystics | L 59-71 | 1493.13 | 1435.75 | 47.46% | 52.54% | -9.58 | 14-14 |
| 2004-09-10 | Connecticut Sun | L 66-77 | 1483.55 | 1488.58 | 59.94% | 40.06% | -11.59 | 14-15 |
| 2004-09-12 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 64-62 | 1471.96 | 1391.57 | 70.98% | 29.02% | +2.39 | 15-15 |
| 2004-09-14 | @ Detroit Shock | L 71-82 | 1474.35 | 1513.16 | 34.18% | 65.82% | -6.61 | 15-16 |
| 2004-09-16 | Indiana Fever | W 77-71 | 1467.74 | 1474.09 | 59.76% | 40.24% | +5.75 | 16-16 |
| 2004-09-17 | @ Connecticut Sun | W 69-66 | 1473.49 | 1520.36 | 33.14% | 66.86% | +6.75 | 17-16 |
| 2004-09-19 | Washington Mystics | W 79-75 | 1480.24 | 1474.75 | 61.38% | 38.62% | +4.50 | 18-16 |
| 2004-05-20 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 66-72 | 1448.89 | 1525.02 | 49.84% | 50.16% | -7.12 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-22 | @ Connecticut Sun | W 65-58 | 1441.77 | 1506.98 | 30.85% | 69.15% | +10.67 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-28 | Seattle Storm | W 84-76 | 1452.44 | 1529.74 | 49.67% | 50.33% | +8.30 | 2-1 |
| 2004-06-01 | Houston Comets | W 73-63 | 1460.74 | 1540.20 | 49.36% | 50.64% | +9.33 | 3-1 |
| 2004-06-03 | @ Seattle Storm | L 45-72 | 1470.07 | 1517.67 | 33.05% | 66.95% | -10.01 | 3-2 |
| 2004-06-05 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 68-76 | 1460.06 | 1495.82 | 34.58% | 65.42% | -5.70 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-09 | Connecticut Sun | W 75-59 | 1454.36 | 1506.19 | 53.33% | 46.67% | +10.88 | 4-3 |
| 2004-06-11 | Charlotte Sting | L 51-59 | 1465.24 | 1469.42 | 60.06% | 39.94% | -9.90 | 4-4 |
| 2004-06-18 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 74-76 | 1455.34 | 1542.83 | 48.21% | 51.79% | -3.98 | 4-5 |
| 2004-06-22 | Minnesota Lynx | W 69-46 | 1451.36 | 1490.22 | 55.19% | 44.81% | +12.53 | 5-5 |
| 2004-06-24 | New York Liberty | W 72-60 | 1463.89 | 1493.68 | 56.47% | 43.53% | +8.79 | 6-5 |
| 2004-06-26 | San Antonio Silver Stars | L 72-80 | 1472.68 | 1428.10 | 66.57% | 33.43% | -10.97 | 6-6 |
| 2004-06-27 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 57-63 | 1461.71 | 1502.92 | 33.87% | 66.13% | -4.84 | 6-7 |
| 2004-06-29 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 77-65 | 1456.87 | 1439.07 | 41.84% | 58.16% | +11.75 | 7-7 |
| 2004-07-01 | @ Charlotte Sting | W 71-59 | 1468.62 | 1497.12 | 35.53% | 64.47% | +13.02 | 8-7 |
| 2004-07-03 | @ Indiana Fever | L 60-61 | 1481.64 | 1500.99 | 36.74% | 63.26% | -2.14 | 8-8 |
| 2004-07-07 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 71-73 | 1479.50 | 1566.77 | 28.21% | 71.79% | -2.33 | 8-9 |
| 2004-07-09 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 59-61 | 1477.17 | 1469.88 | 40.37% | 59.63% | -3.33 | 8-10 |
| 2004-07-11 | @ New York Liberty | L 69-77 | 1473.84 | 1470.33 | 39.85% | 60.15% | -6.57 | 8-11 |
| 2004-07-18 | Minnesota Lynx | L 60-63 | 1467.27 | 1492.10 | 57.17% | 42.83% | -5.77 | 8-12 |
| 2004-07-21 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 87-55 | 1461.50 | 1413.31 | 67.02% | 32.98% | +10.87 | 9-12 |
| 2004-07-22 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | W 71-69 | 1472.37 | 1537.86 | 30.81% | 69.19% | +5.71 | 10-12 |
| 2004-07-24 | Indiana Fever | W 71-56 | 1478.08 | 1496.63 | 58.06% | 41.94% | +9.47 | 11-12 |
| 2004-07-30 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 68-59 | 1487.55 | 1390.89 | 53.11% | 46.89% | +8.20 | 12-12 |
| 2004-08-01 | @ Washington Mystics | L 62-82 | 1495.75 | 1440.92 | 47.10% | 52.90% | -12.28 | 12-13 |
| 2004-09-01 | @ Detroit Shock | W 63-58 | 1483.47 | 1517.60 | 34.79% | 65.21% | +8.50 | 13-13 |
| 2004-09-03 | @ Houston Comets | W 70-60 | 1491.97 | 1515.99 | 36.12% | 63.88% | +11.78 | 14-13 |
| 2004-09-04 | Seattle Storm | W 63-55 | 1503.75 | 1566.15 | 51.82% | 48.18% | +7.94 | 15-13 |
| 2004-09-08 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 72-58 | 1511.69 | 1605.02 | 47.37% | 52.63% | +11.48 | 16-13 |
| 2004-09-11 | Detroit Shock | L 72-80 | 1523.17 | 1502.70 | 63.41% | 36.59% | -10.45 | 16-14 |
| 2004-09-14 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 60-73 | 1512.72 | 1607.21 | 27.37% | 72.63% | -5.76 | 16-15 |
| 2004-09-15 | @ Seattle Storm | L 58-73 | 1506.96 | 1561.63 | 32.16% | 67.84% | -7.26 | 16-16 |
| 2004-09-17 | Washington Mystics | L 67-74 | 1499.70 | 1464.67 | 65.33% | 34.67% | -10.07 | 16-17 |
| 2004-09-19 | Houston Comets | W 78-64 | 1489.63 | 1476.90 | 62.37% | 37.63% | +8.21 | 17-17 |
| 2004-05-20 | @ Phoenix Mercury | W 72-66 | 1525.02 | 1448.89 | 50.16% | 49.84% | +7.12 | 1-0 |
| 2004-05-22 | Minnesota Lynx | L 61-69 | 1532.14 | 1488.62 | 66.43% | 33.57% | -10.96 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-28 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | L 63-72 | 1521.18 | 1469.42 | 46.66% | 53.34% | -8.16 | 1-2 |
| 2004-05-30 | @ Houston Comets | L 57-63 | 1513.02 | 1535.01 | 36.39% | 63.61% | -5.19 | 1-3 |
| 2004-06-03 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 68-51 | 1507.83 | 1540.46 | 56.07% | 43.93% | +10.56 | 2-3 |
| 2004-06-05 | Seattle Storm | L 63-65 | 1518.39 | 1527.69 | 59.35% | 40.65% | -4.90 | 2-4 |
| 2004-06-12 | Connecticut Sun | L 76-83 | 1513.49 | 1490.82 | 63.70% | 36.30% | -9.82 | 2-5 |
| 2004-06-16 | @ Indiana Fever | L 50-63 | 1503.67 | 1500.28 | 39.83% | 60.17% | -8.38 | 2-6 |
| 2004-06-17 | @ Minnesota Lynx | W 60-50 | 1495.29 | 1493.83 | 39.57% | 60.43% | +11.15 | 3-6 |
| 2004-06-19 | Detroit Shock | L 74-84 | 1506.44 | 1559.66 | 53.13% | 46.87% | -9.80 | 3-7 |
| 2004-06-25 | Houston Comets | W 61-55 | 1496.64 | 1529.52 | 56.04% | 43.96% | +6.28 | 4-7 |
| 2004-06-27 | Phoenix Mercury | W 63-57 | 1502.92 | 1461.71 | 66.13% | 33.87% | +4.84 | 5-7 |
| 2004-07-01 | New York Liberty | W 73-47 | 1507.76 | 1490.49 | 62.98% | 37.02% | +11.00 | 6-7 |
| 2004-07-03 | @ Seattle Storm | L 61-75 | 1518.76 | 1559.09 | 33.98% | 66.02% | -7.41 | 6-8 |
| 2004-07-06 | @ New York Liberty | L 66-73 | 1511.35 | 1479.49 | 43.82% | 56.18% | -6.76 | 6-9 |
| 2004-07-09 | @ Connecticut Sun | W 85-70 | 1504.59 | 1523.17 | 36.85% | 63.15% | +14.26 | 7-9 |
| 2004-07-11 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 73-83 | 1518.85 | 1473.20 | 45.78% | 54.22% | -8.44 | 7-10 |
| 2004-07-12 | @ Detroit Shock | W 67-51 | 1510.41 | 1555.70 | 33.34% | 66.66% | +15.54 | 8-10 |
| 2004-07-15 | Seattle Storm | L 63-66 | 1525.95 | 1555.82 | 56.46% | 43.54% | -5.70 | 8-11 |
| 2004-07-17 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | W 79-70 | 1520.25 | 1579.25 | 31.61% | 68.39% | +11.96 | 9-11 |
| 2004-07-18 | Washington Mystics | W 81-71 | 1532.21 | 1465.33 | 69.36% | 30.64% | +5.65 | 10-11 |
| 2004-07-22 | Phoenix Mercury | L 69-71 | 1537.86 | 1472.37 | 69.19% | 30.81% | -5.70 | 10-12 |
| 2004-07-25 | Indiana Fever | W 71-62 | 1532.16 | 1487.16 | 66.62% | 33.38% | +5.84 | 11-12 |
| 2004-07-29 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 80-85 | 1538.00 | 1587.18 | 53.71% | 46.29% | -7.01 | 11-13 |
| 2004-07-31 | Charlotte Sting | W 62-61 | 1530.99 | 1489.98 | 66.11% | 33.89% | +1.98 | 12-13 |
| 2004-09-01 | @ Seattle Storm | W 73-65 | 1532.97 | 1579.18 | 33.23% | 66.77% | +11.01 | 13-13 |
| 2004-09-02 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 66-64 | 1543.98 | 1373.87 | 80.39% | 19.61% | +1.62 | 14-13 |
| 2004-09-04 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 80-70 | 1545.60 | 1372.25 | 63.78% | 36.22% | +6.67 | 15-13 |
| 2004-09-07 | @ Washington Mystics | L 63-67 | 1552.27 | 1429.11 | 56.88% | 43.12% | -6.63 | 15-14 |
| 2004-09-09 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 69-74 | 1545.64 | 1478.56 | 48.86% | 51.14% | -6.37 | 15-15 |
| 2004-09-12 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 52-65 | 1539.27 | 1600.62 | 31.32% | 68.68% | -6.58 | 15-16 |
| 2004-09-16 | @ Houston Comets | W 71-62 | 1532.69 | 1494.88 | 44.66% | 55.34% | +9.68 | 16-16 |
| 2004-09-18 | Houston Comets | W 68-48 | 1542.37 | 1485.20 | 68.16% | 31.84% | +8.30 | 17-16 |
| 2004-09-19 | Minnesota Lynx | W 72-63 | 1550.67 | 1500.60 | 67.26% | 32.74% | +5.72 | 18-16 |
| 2004-05-20 | @ Houston Comets | W 64-55 | 1458.49 | 1534.00 | 29.60% | 70.40% | +12.31 | 1-0 |
| 2004-05-22 | Detroit Shock | L 60-73 | 1470.80 | 1548.19 | 49.66% | 50.34% | -10.44 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-26 | Minnesota Lynx | W 56-44 | 1460.36 | 1499.58 | 55.14% | 44.86% | +9.06 | 2-1 |
| 2004-05-28 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 72-63 | 1469.42 | 1521.18 | 53.34% | 46.66% | +8.16 | 3-1 |
| 2004-06-01 | Indiana Fever | L 60-79 | 1477.58 | 1479.45 | 60.38% | 39.62% | -15.34 | 3-2 |
| 2004-06-03 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 47-55 | 1462.24 | 1489.94 | 35.63% | 64.37% | -5.88 | 3-3 |
| 2004-06-05 | New York Liberty | L 57-62 | 1456.36 | 1534.76 | 49.52% | 50.48% | -6.45 | 3-4 |
| 2004-06-09 | @ Houston Comets | L 47-59 | 1449.91 | 1524.85 | 29.67% | 70.33% | -5.99 | 3-5 |
| 2004-06-12 | Houston Comets | L 66-69 | 1443.92 | 1530.84 | 48.29% | 51.71% | -4.88 | 3-6 |
| 2004-06-15 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 57-59 | 1439.04 | 1479.33 | 33.99% | 66.01% | -2.80 | 3-7 |
| 2004-06-17 | @ Washington Mystics | L 60-76 | 1436.24 | 1426.51 | 40.71% | 59.29% | -9.49 | 3-8 |
| 2004-06-19 | Seattle Storm | L 61-74 | 1426.75 | 1562.35 | 41.37% | 58.63% | -8.70 | 3-9 |
| 2004-06-24 | Minnesota Lynx | W 70-57 | 1418.05 | 1477.69 | 52.21% | 47.79% | +10.05 | 4-9 |
| 2004-06-26 | @ Phoenix Mercury | W 80-72 | 1428.10 | 1472.68 | 33.43% | 66.57% | +10.97 | 5-9 |
| 2004-06-29 | Phoenix Mercury | L 65-77 | 1439.07 | 1456.87 | 58.16% | 41.84% | -11.74 | 5-10 |
| 2004-07-01 | @ Seattle Storm | L 52-76 | 1427.33 | 1552.23 | 24.03% | 75.97% | -6.87 | 5-11 |
| 2004-07-02 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 80-87 | 1420.46 | 1563.35 | 22.19% | 77.81% | -3.42 | 5-12 |
| 2004-07-09 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 61-66 | 1417.04 | 1569.10 | 39.09% | 60.91% | -5.10 | 5-13 |
| 2004-07-12 | @ Seattle Storm | L 59-75 | 1411.94 | 1550.54 | 22.62% | 77.38% | -5.27 | 5-14 |
| 2004-07-15 | Connecticut Sun | W 78-67 | 1406.67 | 1511.42 | 45.73% | 54.27% | +10.49 | 6-14 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ Detroit Shock | L 71-77 | 1417.16 | 1515.29 | 26.96% | 73.04% | -3.85 | 6-15 |
| 2004-07-21 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 55-87 | 1413.31 | 1461.50 | 32.98% | 67.02% | -10.88 | 6-16 |
| 2004-07-24 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 55-69 | 1402.43 | 1489.40 | 28.24% | 71.76% | -6.16 | 6-17 |
| 2004-07-28 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 53-66 | 1396.27 | 1506.64 | 25.59% | 74.41% | -5.38 | 6-18 |
| 2004-07-30 | Phoenix Mercury | L 59-68 | 1390.89 | 1487.55 | 46.89% | 53.11% | -8.20 | 6-19 |
| 2004-07-31 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 67-79 | 1382.69 | 1594.18 | 31.31% | 68.69% | -6.32 | 6-20 |
| 2004-09-01 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 69-77 | 1376.37 | 1600.50 | 15.16% | 84.84% | -2.50 | 6-21 |
| 2004-09-02 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 64-66 | 1373.87 | 1543.98 | 19.61% | 80.39% | -1.62 | 6-22 |
| 2004-09-04 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 70-80 | 1372.25 | 1545.60 | 36.22% | 63.78% | -6.67 | 6-23 |
| 2004-09-09 | Houston Comets | W 77-72 | 1365.58 | 1504.21 | 40.95% | 59.05% | +7.69 | 7-23 |
| 2004-09-10 | @ Indiana Fever | W 82-65 | 1373.27 | 1499.56 | 23.89% | 76.11% | +18.30 | 8-23 |
| 2004-09-12 | @ New York Liberty | L 62-64 | 1391.57 | 1471.96 | 29.02% | 70.98% | -2.39 | 8-24 |
| 2004-09-15 | Washington Mystics | L 73-84 | 1389.18 | 1454.74 | 51.36% | 48.64% | -9.93 | 8-25 |
| 2004-09-17 | Charlotte Sting | W 82-65 | 1379.25 | 1479.82 | 46.33% | 53.67% | +12.90 | 9-25 |
| 2004-05-20 | Minnesota Lynx | W 88-85 | 1513.43 | 1492.31 | 63.49% | 36.51% | +3.68 | 1-0 |
| 2004-05-22 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 93-67 | 1517.11 | 1539.45 | 57.53% | 42.47% | +12.63 | 2-0 |
| 2004-05-28 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 76-84 | 1529.74 | 1452.44 | 50.33% | 49.67% | -8.30 | 2-1 |
| 2004-06-01 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 70-73 | 1521.44 | 1536.69 | 37.29% | 62.71% | -3.77 | 2-2 |
| 2004-06-03 | Phoenix Mercury | W 72-45 | 1517.67 | 1470.07 | 66.95% | 33.05% | +10.02 | 3-2 |
| 2004-06-05 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | W 65-63 | 1527.69 | 1518.39 | 40.65% | 59.35% | +4.89 | 4-2 |
| 2004-06-11 | Connecticut Sun | W 68-63 | 1532.58 | 1495.30 | 65.62% | 34.38% | +4.48 | 5-2 |
| 2004-06-15 | @ New York Liberty | W 86-62 | 1537.06 | 1528.90 | 40.49% | 59.51% | +17.00 | 6-2 |
| 2004-06-18 | @ Houston Comets | W 69-63 | 1554.06 | 1535.71 | 41.91% | 58.09% | +8.29 | 7-2 |
| 2004-06-19 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 74-61 | 1562.35 | 1426.75 | 58.63% | 41.37% | +8.70 | 8-2 |
| 2004-06-22 | Houston Comets | L 57-63 | 1571.05 | 1519.89 | 67.40% | 32.60% | -9.63 | 8-3 |
| 2004-06-26 | New York Liberty | L 62-67 | 1561.42 | 1484.89 | 70.53% | 29.47% | -9.19 | 8-4 |
| 2004-07-01 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 76-52 | 1552.23 | 1427.33 | 75.97% | 24.03% | +6.86 | 9-4 |
| 2004-07-03 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 75-61 | 1559.09 | 1518.76 | 66.02% | 33.98% | +7.42 | 10-4 |
| 2004-07-07 | @ Washington Mystics | L 69-72 | 1566.51 | 1438.75 | 57.53% | 42.47% | -5.81 | 10-5 |
| 2004-07-08 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 67-70 | 1560.70 | 1494.17 | 48.78% | 51.22% | -4.93 | 10-6 |
| 2004-07-10 | @ Detroit Shock | L 65-70 | 1555.77 | 1550.47 | 40.10% | 59.90% | -5.23 | 10-7 |
| 2004-07-12 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 75-59 | 1550.54 | 1411.94 | 77.38% | 22.62% | +5.28 | 11-7 |
| 2004-07-15 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | W 66-63 | 1555.82 | 1525.95 | 43.54% | 56.46% | +5.70 | 12-7 |
| 2004-07-17 | Washington Mystics | W 85-83 | 1561.52 | 1467.60 | 72.56% | 27.44% | +2.26 | 13-7 |
| 2004-07-22 | Indiana Fever | W 59-54 | 1563.78 | 1500.69 | 68.89% | 31.11% | +4.06 | 14-7 |
| 2004-07-24 | Houston Comets | W 67-63 | 1567.84 | 1510.70 | 68.15% | 31.85% | +3.71 | 15-7 |
| 2004-07-27 | @ Houston Comets | L 55-80 | 1571.55 | 1506.99 | 48.49% | 51.51% | -14.14 | 15-8 |
| 2004-07-30 | @ Minnesota Lynx | W 70-55 | 1557.41 | 1512.02 | 45.75% | 54.25% | +12.26 | 16-8 |
| 2004-08-01 | Charlotte Sting | W 87-55 | 1569.67 | 1488.01 | 71.14% | 28.86% | +9.51 | 17-8 |
| 2004-09-01 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 65-73 | 1579.18 | 1532.97 | 66.77% | 33.23% | -11.01 | 17-9 |
| 2004-09-03 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 81-82 | 1568.17 | 1603.00 | 34.70% | 65.30% | -2.02 | 17-10 |
| 2004-09-04 | @ Phoenix Mercury | L 55-63 | 1566.15 | 1503.75 | 48.18% | 51.82% | -7.94 | 17-11 |
| 2004-09-08 | Detroit Shock | W 86-67 | 1558.21 | 1518.44 | 65.95% | 34.05% | +8.65 | 18-11 |
| 2004-09-10 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 61-64 | 1566.86 | 1495.63 | 49.45% | 50.55% | -4.99 | 18-12 |
| 2004-09-12 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 64-71 | 1561.87 | 1500.17 | 48.08% | 51.92% | -7.42 | 18-13 |
| 2004-09-13 | @ Indiana Fever | W 76-70 | 1554.45 | 1481.26 | 49.73% | 50.27% | +7.18 | 19-13 |
| 2004-09-15 | Phoenix Mercury | W 73-58 | 1561.63 | 1506.96 | 67.84% | 32.16% | +7.26 | 20-13 |
| 2004-09-18 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 80-83 | 1568.89 | 1597.56 | 56.63% | 43.37% | -5.72 | 20-14 |
| 2004-05-22 | Charlotte Sting | L 68-71 | 1454.48 | 1485.94 | 56.24% | 43.76% | -5.68 | 0-1 |
| 2004-05-23 | @ Indiana Fever | W 68-67 | 1448.80 | 1494.04 | 33.35% | 66.65% | +3.89 | 1-1 |
| 2004-05-25 | Los Angeles Sparks | L 79-95 | 1452.69 | 1526.82 | 50.13% | 49.87% | -11.69 | 1-2 |
| 2004-05-28 | @ Minnesota Lynx | L 62-73 | 1441.00 | 1490.52 | 32.81% | 67.19% | -6.35 | 1-3 |
| 2004-06-02 | @ Detroit Shock | W 65-63 | 1434.65 | 1542.53 | 25.87% | 74.13% | +6.12 | 2-3 |
| 2004-06-04 | Connecticut Sun | L 63-72 | 1440.77 | 1500.37 | 52.22% | 47.78% | -9.14 | 2-4 |
| 2004-06-11 | Detroit Shock | L 60-74 | 1431.63 | 1546.20 | 44.33% | 55.67% | -9.67 | 2-5 |
| 2004-06-13 | New York Liberty | W 62-60 | 1421.96 | 1533.45 | 44.77% | 55.23% | +4.55 | 3-5 |
| 2004-06-17 | San Antonio Silver Stars | W 76-60 | 1426.51 | 1436.24 | 59.29% | 40.71% | +9.50 | 4-5 |
| 2004-06-20 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 65-75 | 1436.01 | 1489.65 | 32.28% | 67.72% | -5.95 | 4-6 |
| 2004-06-22 | @ Detroit Shock | W 78-72 | 1430.06 | 1569.46 | 22.54% | 77.46% | +11.06 | 5-6 |
| 2004-06-27 | @ Houston Comets | L 67-72 | 1441.12 | 1523.24 | 28.81% | 71.19% | -3.76 | 5-7 |
| 2004-06-30 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 69-78 | 1437.36 | 1514.98 | 29.34% | 70.66% | -5.13 | 5-8 |
| 2004-07-01 | Indiana Fever | W 69-64 | 1432.23 | 1507.52 | 49.96% | 50.04% | +6.52 | 6-8 |
| 2004-07-07 | Seattle Storm | W 72-69 | 1438.75 | 1566.51 | 42.47% | 57.53% | +5.81 | 7-8 |
| 2004-07-08 | @ New York Liberty | W 71-54 | 1444.56 | 1486.25 | 33.81% | 66.19% | +15.91 | 8-8 |
| 2004-07-10 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 65-67 | 1460.47 | 1499.10 | 34.20% | 65.80% | -2.82 | 8-9 |
| 2004-07-15 | Charlotte Sting | W 68-54 | 1457.65 | 1501.92 | 54.42% | 45.58% | +9.95 | 9-9 |
| 2004-07-17 | @ Seattle Storm | L 83-85 | 1467.60 | 1561.52 | 27.44% | 72.56% | -2.27 | 9-10 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 71-81 | 1465.33 | 1532.21 | 30.64% | 69.36% | -5.64 | 9-11 |
| 2004-07-21 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 76-96 | 1459.69 | 1577.67 | 24.77% | 75.23% | -6.46 | 9-12 |
| 2004-07-23 | Minnesota Lynx | W 65-61 | 1453.23 | 1512.20 | 52.31% | 47.69% | +5.56 | 10-12 |
| 2004-07-24 | @ Charlotte Sting | L 41-70 | 1458.79 | 1466.72 | 38.28% | 61.72% | -12.02 | 10-13 |
| 2004-07-28 | Detroit Shock | L 65-73 | 1446.77 | 1506.22 | 52.24% | 47.76% | -8.61 | 10-14 |
| 2004-07-30 | Connecticut Sun | W 69-68 | 1438.16 | 1495.56 | 52.53% | 47.47% | +2.76 | 11-14 |
| 2004-08-01 | Phoenix Mercury | W 82-62 | 1440.92 | 1495.75 | 52.90% | 47.10% | +12.28 | 12-14 |
| 2004-09-01 | Indiana Fever | L 58-75 | 1453.20 | 1464.70 | 59.04% | 40.96% | -14.19 | 12-15 |
| 2004-09-04 | @ Indiana Fever | L 42-69 | 1439.01 | 1489.67 | 32.66% | 67.34% | -9.90 | 12-16 |
| 2004-09-07 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 67-63 | 1429.11 | 1552.27 | 43.12% | 56.88% | +6.64 | 13-16 |
| 2004-09-09 | New York Liberty | W 71-59 | 1435.75 | 1493.13 | 52.54% | 47.46% | +9.58 | 14-16 |
| 2004-09-12 | Houston Comets | W 75-63 | 1445.33 | 1496.51 | 53.43% | 46.57% | +9.41 | 15-16 |
| 2004-09-15 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | W 84-73 | 1454.74 | 1389.18 | 48.64% | 51.36% | +9.93 | 16-16 |
| 2004-09-17 | @ Phoenix Mercury | W 74-67 | 1464.67 | 1499.70 | 34.67% | 65.33% | +10.08 | 17-16 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ New York Liberty | L 75-79 | 1474.75 | 1480.24 | 38.62% | 61.38% | -4.51 | 17-17 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-09-25 | @ Washington Mystics | L 59-67 | 1522.30 | 1470.24 | 46.70% | 53.30% | -7.70 | 0-1 |
| 2004-09-27 | Washington Mystics | W 80-70 | 1514.60 | 1477.94 | 65.54% | 34.46% | +6.35 | 1-1 |
| 2004-09-29 | Washington Mystics | W 76-56 | 1520.95 | 1471.59 | 67.17% | 32.83% | +8.56 | 2-1 |
| 2004-10-01 | @ New York Liberty | W 61-51 | 1529.51 | 1491.51 | 44.69% | 55.31% | +10.20 | 3-1 |
| 2004-10-03 | New York Liberty | W 60-57 | 1539.71 | 1481.31 | 68.31% | 31.69% | +3.20 | 4-1 |
| 2004-10-08 | Seattle Storm | W 68-64 | 1542.91 | 1593.20 | 53.55% | 46.45% | +5.41 | 5-1 |
| 2004-10-10 | @ Seattle Storm | L 65-67 | 1548.32 | 1587.78 | 34.10% | 65.90% | -2.81 | 5-2 |
| 2004-10-12 | @ Seattle Storm | L 60-74 | 1545.51 | 1590.59 | 33.37% | 66.63% | -7.28 | 5-3 |
| 2004-09-24 | New York Liberty | L 62-75 | 1526.83 | 1484.74 | 66.24% | 33.76% | -13.92 | 0-1 |
| 2004-09-26 | @ New York Liberty | W 76-66 | 1512.91 | 1498.66 | 41.34% | 58.66% | +10.81 | 1-1 |
| 2004-09-28 | @ New York Liberty | L 64-66 | 1523.72 | 1487.85 | 44.39% | 55.61% | -3.66 | 1-2 |
| 2004-09-24 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 52-72 | 1603.28 | 1556.39 | 45.96% | 54.04% | -11.99 | 0-1 |
| 2004-09-26 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 71-57 | 1591.29 | 1568.38 | 63.73% | 36.27% | +7.91 | 1-1 |
| 2004-09-28 | Sacramento Monarchs | L 58-73 | 1599.20 | 1560.47 | 65.81% | 34.19% | -14.86 | 1-2 |
| 2004-09-25 | Seattle Storm | L 58-70 | 1494.88 | 1563.17 | 50.97% | 49.03% | -10.30 | 0-1 |
| 2004-09-27 | @ Seattle Storm | L 54-64 | 1484.58 | 1573.46 | 28.02% | 71.98% | -5.16 | 0-2 |
| 2004-09-24 | @ Detroit Shock | W 75-62 | 1484.74 | 1526.83 | 33.76% | 66.24% | +13.92 | 1-0 |
| 2004-09-26 | Detroit Shock | L 66-76 | 1498.66 | 1512.91 | 58.66% | 41.34% | -10.81 | 1-1 |
| 2004-09-28 | Detroit Shock | W 66-64 | 1487.85 | 1523.72 | 55.61% | 44.39% | +3.66 | 2-1 |
| 2004-10-01 | Connecticut Sun | L 51-61 | 1491.51 | 1529.51 | 55.31% | 44.69% | -10.20 | 2-2 |
| 2004-10-03 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 57-60 | 1481.31 | 1539.71 | 31.69% | 68.31% | -3.20 | 2-3 |
| 2004-09-24 | Los Angeles Sparks | W 72-52 | 1556.39 | 1603.28 | 54.04% | 45.96% | +11.99 | 1-0 |
| 2004-09-26 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | L 57-71 | 1568.38 | 1591.29 | 36.27% | 63.73% | -7.91 | 1-1 |
| 2004-09-28 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | W 73-58 | 1560.47 | 1599.20 | 34.19% | 65.81% | +14.86 | 2-1 |
| 2004-10-01 | Seattle Storm | W 74-72 | 1575.33 | 1578.63 | 60.18% | 39.82% | +3.28 | 3-1 |
| 2004-10-03 | @ Seattle Storm | L 54-66 | 1578.61 | 1575.35 | 39.82% | 60.18% | -8.04 | 3-2 |
| 2004-10-05 | @ Seattle Storm | L 62-82 | 1570.57 | 1583.39 | 37.62% | 62.38% | -9.81 | 3-3 |
| 2004-09-25 | @ Minnesota Lynx | W 70-58 | 1563.17 | 1494.88 | 49.03% | 50.97% | +10.29 | 1-0 |
| 2004-09-27 | Minnesota Lynx | W 64-54 | 1573.46 | 1484.58 | 71.98% | 28.02% | +5.17 | 2-0 |
| 2004-10-01 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | L 72-74 | 1578.63 | 1575.33 | 39.82% | 60.18% | -3.28 | 2-1 |
| 2004-10-03 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 66-54 | 1575.35 | 1578.61 | 60.18% | 39.82% | +8.04 | 3-1 |
| 2004-10-05 | Sacramento Monarchs | W 82-62 | 1583.39 | 1570.57 | 62.38% | 37.62% | +9.81 | 4-1 |
| 2004-10-08 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 64-68 | 1593.20 | 1542.91 | 46.45% | 53.55% | -5.42 | 4-2 |
| 2004-10-10 | Connecticut Sun | W 67-65 | 1587.78 | 1548.32 | 65.90% | 34.10% | +2.81 | 5-2 |
| 2004-10-12 | Connecticut Sun | W 74-60 | 1590.59 | 1545.51 | 66.63% | 33.37% | +7.28 | 6-2 |
| 2004-09-25 | Connecticut Sun | W 67-59 | 1470.24 | 1522.30 | 53.30% | 46.70% | +7.70 | 1-0 |
| 2004-09-27 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 70-80 | 1477.94 | 1514.60 | 34.46% | 65.54% | -6.35 | 1-1 |
| 2004-09-29 | @ Connecticut Sun | L 56-76 | 1471.59 | 1520.95 | 32.83% | 67.17% | -8.56 | 1-2 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2004-06-22 | 22.54% | Washington Mystics | 1430.06 | 78 | @ Detroit Shock | 1569.46 | 72 |
| 2 | 2004-09-17 | 23.73% | Minnesota Lynx | 1485.20 | 78 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | 1612.96 | 66 |
| 3 | 2004-09-10 | 23.89% | San Antonio Silver Stars | 1373.27 | 82 | @ Indiana Fever | 1499.56 | 65 |
| 4 | 2004-06-02 | 25.87% | Washington Mystics | 1434.65 | 65 | @ Detroit Shock | 1542.53 | 63 |
| 5 | 2004-06-26 | 29.47% | New York Liberty | 1484.89 | 67 | @ Seattle Storm | 1561.42 | 62 |
| 6 | 2004-05-20 | 29.60% | San Antonio Silver Stars | 1458.49 | 64 | @ Houston Comets | 1534.00 | 55 |
| 7 | 2004-07-22 | 30.81% | Phoenix Mercury | 1472.37 | 71 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | 1537.86 | 69 |
| 8 | 2004-05-22 | 30.85% | Phoenix Mercury | 1441.77 | 65 | @ Connecticut Sun | 1506.98 | 58 |
| 9 | 2004-07-17 | 31.61% | Sacramento Monarchs | 1520.25 | 79 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | 1579.25 | 70 |
| 10 | 2004-06-22 | 32.60% | Houston Comets | 1519.89 | 63 | @ Seattle Storm | 1571.05 | 57 |
| 11 | 2004-06-29 | 32.69% | Indiana Fever | 1503.59 | 69 | @ Detroit Shock | 1554.01 | 68 |
| 12 | 2004-06-27 | 32.73% | Connecticut Sun | 1509.43 | 74 | @ Detroit Shock | 1559.56 | 72 |
| 13 | 2004-09-17 | 33.14% | New York Liberty | 1473.49 | 69 | @ Connecticut Sun | 1520.36 | 66 |
| 14 | 2004-09-01 | 33.23% | Sacramento Monarchs | 1532.97 | 73 | @ Seattle Storm | 1579.18 | 65 |
| 15 | 2004-07-12 | 33.34% | Sacramento Monarchs | 1510.41 | 67 | @ Detroit Shock | 1555.70 | 51 |
| 16 | 2004-05-23 | 33.35% | Washington Mystics | 1448.80 | 68 | @ Indiana Fever | 1494.04 | 67 |
| 17 | 2004-06-11 | 33.39% | Indiana Fever | 1496.30 | 72 | @ New York Liberty | 1541.22 | 68 |
| 18 | 2004-06-26 | 33.43% | San Antonio Silver Stars | 1428.10 | 80 | @ Phoenix Mercury | 1472.68 | 72 |
| 19 | 2004-05-22 | 33.57% | Minnesota Lynx | 1488.62 | 69 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | 1532.14 | 61 |
| 20 | 2004-09-24 * | 33.76% | New York Liberty | 1484.74 | 75 | @ Detroit Shock | 1526.83 | 62 |
| 21 | 2004-07-08 | 33.81% | Washington Mystics | 1444.56 | 71 | @ New York Liberty | 1486.25 | 54 |
| 22 | 2004-09-28 * | 34.19% | Sacramento Monarchs | 1560.47 | 73 | @ Los Angeles Sparks | 1599.20 | 58 |
| 23 | 2004-09-03 | 34.66% | Indiana Fever | 1478.89 | 69 | @ Minnesota Lynx | 1513.98 | 61 |
| 24 | 2004-09-17 | 34.67% | Washington Mystics | 1464.67 | 74 | @ Phoenix Mercury | 1499.70 | 67 |
| 25 | 2004-07-03 | 34.71% | Charlotte Sting | 1484.10 | 62 | @ Houston Comets | 1518.85 | 55 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 2004-09-10 | 18.30 | San Antonio Silver Stars | 82 | 1373.27 | 23.89% | @ Indiana Fever | 65 | 1499.56 | 76.11% |
| 2 | 2004-06-15 | 17.00 | Seattle Storm | 86 | 1537.06 | 40.49% | @ New York Liberty | 62 | 1528.90 | 59.51% |
| 3 | 2004-07-15 | 16.32 | @ Houston Comets | 97 | 1488.37 | 53.34% | Detroit Shock | 61 | 1540.16 | 46.66% |
| 4 | 2004-07-08 | 15.92 | Washington Mystics | 71 | 1444.56 | 33.81% | @ New York Liberty | 54 | 1486.25 | 66.19% |
| 5 | 2004-07-12 | 15.54 | Sacramento Monarchs | 67 | 1510.41 | 33.34% | @ Detroit Shock | 51 | 1555.70 | 66.66% |
| 6 | 2004-09-17 | 15.40 | Minnesota Lynx | 78 | 1485.20 | 23.73% | @ Los Angeles Sparks | 66 | 1612.96 | 76.27% |
| 7 | 2004-06-01 | 15.34 | Indiana Fever | 79 | 1479.45 | 39.62% | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | 60 | 1477.58 | 60.38% |
| 8 | 2004-09-28 * | 14.86 | Sacramento Monarchs | 73 | 1560.47 | 34.19% | @ Los Angeles Sparks | 58 | 1599.20 | 65.81% |
| 9 | 2004-07-22 | 14.33 | Minnesota Lynx | 68 | 1497.87 | 38.57% | @ Connecticut Sun | 52 | 1503.73 | 61.43% |
| 10 | 2004-07-09 | 14.26 | Sacramento Monarchs | 85 | 1504.59 | 36.85% | @ Connecticut Sun | 70 | 1523.17 | 63.15% |
| 11 | 2004-09-01 | 14.19 | Indiana Fever | 75 | 1464.70 | 40.96% | @ Washington Mystics | 58 | 1453.20 | 59.04% |
| 12 | 2004-07-27 | 14.14 | @ Houston Comets | 80 | 1506.99 | 51.51% | Seattle Storm | 55 | 1571.55 | 48.49% |
| 13 | 2004-09-24 * | 13.92 | New York Liberty | 75 | 1484.74 | 33.76% | @ Detroit Shock | 62 | 1526.83 | 66.24% |
| 14 | 2004-06-22 | 13.04 | Los Angeles Sparks | 65 | 1540.63 | 44.11% | @ New York Liberty | 49 | 1506.71 | 55.89% |
| 15 | 2004-07-01 | 13.02 | Phoenix Mercury | 71 | 1468.62 | 35.53% | @ Charlotte Sting | 59 | 1497.12 | 64.47% |
| 16 | 2004-09-17 | 12.90 | @ San Antonio Silver Stars | 82 | 1379.25 | 46.33% | Charlotte Sting | 65 | 1479.82 | 53.67% |
| 17 | 2004-09-15 | 12.78 | Connecticut Sun | 81 | 1507.58 | 41.45% | @ Charlotte Sting | 67 | 1492.59 | 58.55% |
| 18 | 2004-05-22 | 12.63 | @ Seattle Storm | 93 | 1517.11 | 57.53% | Los Angeles Sparks | 67 | 1539.45 | 42.47% |
| 19 | 2004-06-22 | 12.53 | @ Phoenix Mercury | 69 | 1451.36 | 55.19% | Minnesota Lynx | 46 | 1490.22 | 44.81% |
| 20 | 2004-05-20 | 12.31 | San Antonio Silver Stars | 64 | 1458.49 | 29.60% | @ Houston Comets | 55 | 1534.00 | 70.40% |
| 21 | 2004-08-01 | 12.28 | @ Washington Mystics | 82 | 1440.92 | 52.90% | Phoenix Mercury | 62 | 1495.75 | 47.10% |
| 22 | 2004-07-30 | 12.26 | Seattle Storm | 70 | 1557.41 | 45.75% | @ Minnesota Lynx | 55 | 1512.02 | 54.25% |
| 23 | 2004-07-24 | 12.02 | @ Charlotte Sting | 70 | 1466.72 | 61.72% | Washington Mystics | 41 | 1458.79 | 38.28% |
| 24 | 2004-09-24 * | 11.99 | @ Sacramento Monarchs | 72 | 1556.39 | 54.04% | Los Angeles Sparks | 52 | 1603.28 | 45.96% |
| 25 | 2004-07-17 | 11.96 | Sacramento Monarchs | 79 | 1520.25 | 31.61% | @ Los Angeles Sparks | 70 | 1579.25 | 68.39% |