2013 USL Season
156 regular-season games · 100,000 simulations
Season Status
In Progress
Awaiting final results
Title Favorite
Orlando City SC
17.83% chance to win USL Championship
Biggest Overachiever
Richmond Kickers
13.92 points above expected
51 points · 37.08 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Antigua Barracuda FC
18.60 points below expected
0 points · 18.60 expected points
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Kickers | 14 | 1 | 9 | 51 | .708 | 48 | 22 | +26 | 37.08 | +13.92 |
| 2 | Orlando City SC | 14 | 4 | 6 | 48 | .667 | 50 | 26 | +24 | 38.79 | +9.21 |
| 3 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 13 | 9 | 2 | 41 | .569 | 52 | 35 | +17 | 36.70 | +4.30 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Blues | 11 | 7 | 6 | 39 | .542 | 48 | 32 | +16 | 35.46 | +3.54 |
| 5 | Charleston Battery | 11 | 7 | 6 | 39 | .542 | 43 | 28 | +15 | 36.25 | +2.75 |
| 6 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 10 | 8 | 6 | 36 | .500 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 33.22 | +2.78 |
| 7 | Charlotte Eagles | 8 | 5 | 11 | 35 | .486 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 35.32 | -0.32 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 9 | 8 | 7 | 34 | .472 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 32.97 | +1.03 |
| 9 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | 9 | 11 | 4 | 31 | .431 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 35.17 | -4.17 |
| 10 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 9 | 11 | 4 | 31 | .431 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 34.13 | -3.13 |
| 11 | Rochester Rhinos | 6 | 10 | 8 | 26 | .361 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 34.36 | -8.36 |
| 12 | Phoenix FC | 5 | 14 | 5 | 20 | .278 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 34.05 | -14.05 |
| 13 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 10 | 82 | -72 | 18.60 | -18.60 |
Playoff Bracket
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Points | Avg. Pts. | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 1554 | 48 | 38.79 | +9.21 | 93.75% | 16 | 28 | 34 | 39 | 43 | 49 | 63 | ||
| Richmond Kickers | 1542 | 51 | 37.08 | +13.92 | 98.88% | 13 | 27 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 48 | 59 | ||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 1527 | 41 | 36.70 | +4.30 | 77.41% | 12 | 26 | 32 | 37 | 41 | 47 | 64 | ||
| Charleston Battery | 1524 | 39 | 36.25 | +2.75 | 69.26% | 12 | 26 | 32 | 36 | 41 | 47 | 59 | ||
| Los Angeles Blues | 1514 | 39 | 35.46 | +3.54 | 73.47% | 11 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 40 | 46 | 59 | ||
| Charlotte Eagles | 1502 | 35 | 35.32 | -0.32 | 51.53% | 13 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 40 | 46 | 59 | ||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 1497 | 31 | 34.13 | -3.13 | 34.63% | 12 | 24 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 45 | 59 | ||
| VSI Tampa Bay FC | 1495 | 31 | 35.17 | -4.17 | 28.69% | 9 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 46 | 59 | ||
| Rochester Rhinos | 1488 | 26 | 34.36 | -8.36 | 11.07% | 11 | 24 | 30 | 34 | 39 | 45 | 61 | ||
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 1484 | 36 | 33.22 | +2.78 | 69.87% | 11 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 44 | 57 | ||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1484 | 34 | 32.97 | +1.03 | 59.93% | 9 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 44 | 57 | ||
| Phoenix FC | 1483 | 20 | 34.05 | -14.05 | 1.41% | 10 | 24 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 45 | 58 | ||
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 1408 | 0 | 18.60 | -18.60 | 0.00% | 1 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 29 | 44 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
| Team | FC | Battery | Eagles | Lions | Islanders | Blues | SC | FC | Riverhounds | Kickers | Rhinos | FC | Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | — |
0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0
(1.6 exp.)
|
0
(1.7 exp.)
|
0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0
(1.4 exp.)
|
0
(1.4 exp.)
|
0
(1.6 exp.)
|
0
(1.7 exp.)
|
0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0
(1.6 exp.)
|
0
(1.6 exp.)
|
| Charleston Battery |
6
(4.3 exp.)
|
— |
1
(2.9 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
4
(3.1 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
2
(3.0 exp.)
|
1
(2.9 exp.)
|
3
(3.0 exp.)
|
| Charlotte Eagles |
6
(4.2 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
— |
2
(3.0 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
1
(3.0 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
2
(2.9 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
| Dayton Dutch Lions |
6
(4.1 exp.)
|
0
(2.6 exp.)
|
2
(2.7 exp.)
|
— |
3
(2.5 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.4 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
0
(2.5 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
6
(2.6 exp.)
|
0
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Harrisburg City Islanders |
6
(4.3 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(3.0 exp.)
|
3
(3.1 exp.)
|
— |
1
(2.9 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
6
(3.1 exp.)
|
3
(3.1 exp.)
|
0
(2.8 exp.)
|
6
(2.9 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
3
(3.1 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Blues |
6
(4.3 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
1
(3.0 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
— |
3
(2.6 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
0
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Orlando City SC |
6
(4.4 exp.)
|
4
(3.1 exp.)
|
4
(3.1 exp.)
|
4
(3.2 exp.)
|
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
3
(3.1 exp.)
|
— |
6
(3.2 exp.)
|
1
(3.3 exp.)
|
0
(3.0 exp.)
|
6
(3.1 exp.)
|
6
(3.2 exp.)
|
4
(3.2 exp.)
|
| Phoenix FC |
6
(4.2 exp.)
|
0
(2.6 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.9 exp.)
|
0
(2.6 exp.)
|
0
(2.8 exp.)
|
0
(2.5 exp.)
|
— |
1
(3.0 exp.)
|
1
(2.5 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
6
(4.0 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
0
(2.6 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.6 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
4
(2.3 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
— |
2
(2.5 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
6
(2.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Richmond Kickers |
6
(4.3 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
6
(3.2 exp.)
|
6
(2.9 exp.)
|
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
6
(2.7 exp.)
|
4
(3.1 exp.)
|
2
(3.1 exp.)
|
— |
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
2
(3.0 exp.)
|
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
| Rochester Rhinos |
6
(4.2 exp.)
|
2
(2.7 exp.)
|
2
(2.7 exp.)
|
0
(2.9 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
0
(2.5 exp.)
|
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
— |
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
| VSI Tampa Bay FC |
6
(4.1 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
0
(3.0 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
0
(2.5 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
0
(3.0 exp.)
|
2
(2.6 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
— |
6
(2.9 exp.)
|
| Wilmington Hammerheads |
6
(4.2 exp.)
|
3
(2.6 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.6 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
1
(2.4 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
— |
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
Win
Loss
Same range
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.97% | 8.01% | 4.49% | 1.92% | 2.56% | 0.96% | 26.92% |
| 1 | 8.01% | 5.77% | 7.05% | 4.49% | 2.24% | 0.96% | 28.53% |
| 2 | 4.49% | 7.05% | 6.41% | 2.24% | 0.96% | 0.96% | 22.12% |
| 3 | 1.92% | 4.49% | 2.24% | 2.56% | 1.28% | — | 12.50% |
| 4 | 2.56% | 2.24% | 0.96% | 1.28% | — | — | 7.05% |
| 5+ | 0.96% | 0.96% | 0.96% | — | — | — | 2.88% |
| Total | 26.92% | 28.53% | 22.12% | 12.50% | 7.05% | 2.88% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.55 | 1.55 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.41 | 1.41 | 2.03 |
| CV | 0.91 | 0.91 | — |
| Max | 8 | 8 | +8 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -8 |
Games Played: 156
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 12.50% | 16.67% | 4.17% | 16.67% | 12.50% | 62.50% |
| 1 | — | — | 4.17% | 16.67% | 12.50% | — | 33.33% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% | 4.17% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 12.50% | 20.83% | 20.83% | 29.17% | 16.67% | 100% |
Antigua Barracuda FC — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.42 | 3.42 | -3.00 |
| SD | 0.58 | 1.79 | 1.74 |
| CV | 1.40 | 0.52 | — |
| Max | 2 | 8 | -1 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -8 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | 12.50% |
| 1 | 12.50% | 12.50% | 16.67% | — | 4.17% | — | 45.83% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 5+ | — | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| Total | 37.50% | 25.00% | 29.17% | — | 8.33% | — | 100% |
Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.79 | 1.17 | +0.62 |
| SD | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.86 |
| CV | 0.82 | 1.03 | — |
| Max | 5 | 4 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | 8.33% | — | — | 8.33% | — | 29.17% |
| 1 | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | 12.50% |
| 2 | 8.33% | 4.17% | 16.67% | — | — | — | 29.17% |
| 3 | — | — | 8.33% | 12.50% | 4.17% | — | 25.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 33.33% | 16.67% | 25.00% | 12.50% | 12.50% | — | 100% |
Charlotte Eagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.67 | 1.54 | +0.12 |
| SD | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.78 |
| CV | 0.82 | 0.92 | — |
| Max | 5 | 4 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | 12.50% | — | — | 4.17% | — | 29.17% |
| 1 | 8.33% | — | 4.17% | — | — | 4.17% | 16.67% |
| 2 | — | 8.33% | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | 25.00% |
| 3 | — | 20.83% | — | 4.17% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | 4.17% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.83% | 41.67% | 12.50% | 12.50% | 4.17% | 8.33% | 100% |
Dayton Dutch Lions — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.58 | 1.62 | -0.04 |
| SD | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1.76 |
| CV | 0.81 | 0.92 | — |
| Max | 4 | 5 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 1 | 4.17% | — | 12.50% | 8.33% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | 8.33% | 12.50% | 8.33% | — | 4.17% | — | 33.33% |
| 3 | — | 12.50% | — | — | 4.17% | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 5+ | — | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| Total | 20.83% | 37.50% | 25.00% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | 100% |
Harrisburg City Islanders — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.17 | 1.46 | +0.71 |
| SD | 1.37 | 1.18 | 2.05 |
| CV | 0.63 | 0.81 | — |
| Max | 5 | 4 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | 4.17% | — | — | 20.83% |
| 1 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 12.50% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 3 | — | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | — | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | 8.33% | — | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | 16.67% |
| 5+ | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 29.17% | 29.17% | 20.83% | 20.83% | — | — | 100% |
Los Angeles Blues — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 1.33 | +0.67 |
| SD | 1.59 | 1.13 | 1.97 |
| CV | 0.79 | 0.85 | — |
| Max | 6 | 3 | +6 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.17% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 20.83% |
| 1 | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 2 | 8.33% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 20.83% |
| 3 | 4.17% | 12.50% | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | — | 29.17% |
| 4 | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 5+ | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 29.17% | 37.50% | 29.17% | 4.17% | — | — | 100% |
Orlando City SC — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.08 | 1.08 | +1.00 |
| SD | 1.67 | 0.88 | 1.74 |
| CV | 0.80 | 0.81 | — |
| Max | 7 | 3 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.33% | 12.50% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 29.17% |
| 1 | 12.50% | 4.17% | 12.50% | 12.50% | — | 4.17% | 45.83% |
| 2 | — | — | 8.33% | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 3 | — | 4.17% | — | — | 8.33% | — | 12.50% |
| 4 | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 25.00% | 20.83% | 29.17% | 12.50% | 8.33% | 4.17% | 100% |
Phoenix FC — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.17 | 1.71 | -0.54 |
| SD | 1.13 | 1.43 | 1.61 |
| CV | 0.97 | 0.84 | — |
| Max | 4 | 5 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 1 | 4.17% | 12.50% | 12.50% | — | 4.17% | — | 33.33% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 12.50% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | — | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | — | — | 8.33% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 25.00% | 33.33% | 29.17% | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | 100% |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.42 | 1.33 | +0.08 |
| SD | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.47 |
| CV | 0.86 | 0.82 | — |
| Max | 4 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | — | — | — | — | — | 12.50% |
| 1 | 12.50% | 16.67% | — | — | — | — | 29.17% |
| 2 | 16.67% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | 4.17% | 29.17% |
| 3 | — | — | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | 4.17% | 12.50% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 5+ | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 45.83% | 33.33% | 12.50% | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | 100% |
Richmond Kickers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 0.92 | +1.08 |
| SD | 1.41 | 1.21 | 1.53 |
| CV | 0.71 | 1.32 | — |
| Max | 5 | 5 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | 8.33% | — | 8.33% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 1 | 12.50% | 8.33% | 4.17% | 12.50% | 4.17% | 4.17% | 45.83% |
| 2 | — | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 12.50% |
| 3 | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 4 | — | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | 4.17% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 33.33% | 20.83% | 12.50% | 25.00% | 4.17% | 4.17% | 100% |
Rochester Rhinos — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.58 | -0.58 |
| SD | 1.02 | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| CV | 1.02 | 0.95 | — |
| Max | 4 | 5 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | 12.50% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | 37.50% |
| 1 | 12.50% | — | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | — | 4.17% | — | 8.33% | — | — | 12.50% |
| 3 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 5+ | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 33.33% | 20.83% | 20.83% | 25.00% | — | — | 100% |
VSI Tampa Bay FC — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.50 | 1.38 | +0.12 |
| SD | 1.87 | 1.21 | 2.27 |
| CV | 1.24 | 0.88 | — |
| Max | 8 | 3 | +8 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.33% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | 4.17% | — | 29.17% |
| 1 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 8.33% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 20.83% | 4.17% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | 37.50% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 16.67% | 41.67% | 20.83% | 8.33% | 12.50% | — | 100% |
Wilmington Hammerheads — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.33 | 1.58 | -0.25 |
| SD | 1.17 | 1.25 | 1.78 |
| CV | 0.88 | 0.79 | — |
| Max | 4 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
Points Points vs. Goal Differential
Plot of points against goals differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Kickers | 51 | 37.08 | +13.92 |
| 2 | Orlando City SC | 48 | 38.79 | +9.21 |
| 3 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 41 | 36.70 | +4.30 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Blues | 39 | 35.46 | +3.54 |
| 5 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 36 | 33.22 | +2.78 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 18.60 | -18.60 |
| 2 | Phoenix FC | 20 | 34.05 | -14.05 |
| 3 | Rochester Rhinos | 26 | 34.36 | -8.36 |
| 4 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | 31 | 35.17 | -4.17 |
| 5 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 31 | 34.13 | -3.13 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 5 | Apr 21 – May 12 | 1 in 57 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 3 | Jul 21 – Aug 4 | 1 in 35 |
| 3 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 5 | Aug 3 – Aug 18 | 1 in 33 |
| 4 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 4 | Jun 1 – Jun 16 | 1 in 33 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Blues | 4 | Jul 5 – Jul 14 | 1 in 29 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 24 | Apr 14 – Aug 18 | 1 in 19,766 |
| 2 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 5 | Apr 27 – May 12 | 1 in 80 |
| 3 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | 5 | Aug 3 – Aug 11 | 1 in 64 |
| 4 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 3 | Jul 7 – Jul 14 | 1 in 29 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | Apr 14 – Apr 28 | 1 in 16 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Kickers | 20 | Apr 7 – Aug 3 | 1 in 18,074 |
| 2 | Charlotte Eagles | 9 | Jun 6 – Jul 26 | 1 in 165 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 9 | May 4 – Jun 23 | 1 in 113 |
| 4 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 9 | May 12 – Jul 4 | 1 in 86 |
| 5 | Orlando City SC | 10 | Apr 15 – Jun 10 | 1 in 47 |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 24 | Apr 14 – Aug 18 | 1 in 372 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 10 | May 15 – Jul 14 | 1 in 313 |
| 3 | Phoenix FC | 11 | May 4 – Jun 30 | 1 in 121 |
| 4 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | 7 | Jul 29 – Aug 17 | 1 in 34 |
| 5 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 5 | Apr 27 – May 12 | 1 in 13 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 18.21% | 14.08% | 11.93% | 10.21% | 8.69% | 7.63% | 7.17% | 5.83% | 5.24% | 4.37% | 3.63% | 2.52% | 0.49% |
| Richmond Kickers | 12.56% | 10.79% | 10.37% | 9.49% | 8.97% | 8.28% | 8.21% | 7.81% | 6.79% | 6.12% | 5.64% | 4.09% | 0.88% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 11.24% | 10.29% | 9.98% | 9.71% | 8.87% | 8.41% | 8.46% | 7.75% | 7.40% | 6.32% | 5.60% | 4.85% | 1.12% |
| Charleston Battery | 10.11% | 9.81% | 9.06% | 9.54% | 8.74% | 8.24% | 8.36% | 8.35% | 7.43% | 7.10% | 6.54% | 5.58% | 1.14% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 8.28% | 8.53% | 8.41% | 8.66% | 9.13% | 8.39% | 8.53% | 8.03% | 8.08% | 7.92% | 7.54% | 6.80% | 1.70% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 7.53% | 8.11% | 8.84% | 8.45% | 8.67% | 8.25% | 8.10% | 8.79% | 8.34% | 8.58% | 8.07% | 6.79% | 1.48% |
| VSI Tampa Bay FC | 7.31% | 8.06% | 7.96% | 8.50% | 8.91% | 8.83% | 8.30% | 8.25% | 8.42% | 8.99% | 7.72% | 7.04% | 1.71% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 5.65% | 7.31% | 7.11% | 7.92% | 8.12% | 8.73% | 8.36% | 8.91% | 9.51% | 8.76% | 8.59% | 8.44% | 2.59% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 5.21% | 6.71% | 7.36% | 7.28% | 7.57% | 8.84% | 8.42% | 9.04% | 8.84% | 9.60% | 9.73% | 9.17% | 2.23% |
| Phoenix FC | 5.68% | 5.81% | 7.05% | 7.31% | 7.85% | 8.40% | 8.78% | 8.72% | 9.39% | 9.71% | 9.52% | 9.63% | 2.15% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 4.15% | 5.42% | 6.12% | 6.44% | 7.49% | 8.00% | 8.53% | 8.90% | 9.43% | 10.05% | 11.10% | 11.40% | 2.97% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4.04% | 5.05% | 5.69% | 6.40% | 6.78% | 7.71% | 8.17% | 8.92% | 10.04% | 10.59% | 11.64% | 11.98% | 2.99% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.61% | 0.70% | 1.09% | 1.89% | 4.68% | 11.71% | 78.55% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 18.21% | 14.08% | 11.93% | 10.21% | 8.69% | 7.63% | 7.17% | 5.83% | 16.25% |
| Richmond Kickers | 12.56% | 10.79% | 10.37% | 9.49% | 8.97% | 8.28% | 8.21% | 7.81% | 23.52% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 11.24% | 10.29% | 9.98% | 9.71% | 8.87% | 8.41% | 8.46% | 7.75% | 25.29% |
| Charleston Battery | 10.11% | 9.81% | 9.06% | 9.54% | 8.74% | 8.24% | 8.36% | 8.35% | 27.79% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 8.28% | 8.53% | 8.41% | 8.66% | 9.13% | 8.39% | 8.53% | 8.03% | 32.04% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 7.53% | 8.11% | 8.84% | 8.45% | 8.67% | 8.25% | 8.10% | 8.79% | 33.26% |
| VSI Tampa Bay FC | 7.31% | 8.06% | 7.96% | 8.50% | 8.91% | 8.83% | 8.30% | 8.25% | 33.88% |
| Phoenix FC | 5.68% | 5.81% | 7.05% | 7.31% | 7.85% | 8.40% | 8.78% | 8.72% | 40.40% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 5.65% | 7.31% | 7.11% | 7.92% | 8.12% | 8.73% | 8.36% | 8.91% | 37.89% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 5.21% | 6.71% | 7.36% | 7.28% | 7.57% | 8.84% | 8.42% | 9.04% | 39.57% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 4.15% | 5.42% | 6.12% | 6.44% | 7.49% | 8.00% | 8.53% | 8.90% | 44.95% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4.04% | 5.05% | 5.69% | 6.40% | 6.78% | 7.71% | 8.17% | 8.92% | 47.24% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.61% | 0.70% | 97.92% |
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to USL Championship | Won USL Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 83.75% | 51.43% | 30.72% | 17.83% |
| Richmond Kickers | 76.48% | 43.69% | 23.73% | 13.02% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 74.71% | 40.34% | 21.29% | 11.24% |
| Charleston Battery | 72.21% | 38.48% | 19.95% | 10.09% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 67.96% | 33.80% | 16.71% | 8.34% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 66.74% | 31.87% | 15.22% | 7.33% |
| VSI Tampa Bay FC | 66.12% | 30.81% | 14.35% | 6.56% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 60.43% | 27.99% | 13.16% | 5.91% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 62.11% | 28.16% | 13.22% | 5.89% |
| Phoenix FC | 59.60% | 26.22% | 11.34% | 4.99% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 52.76% | 22.65% | 9.93% | 4.40% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 55.05% | 24.01% | 10.25% | 4.37% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 2.08% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Phoenix FC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | VSI Tampa Bay FC | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.05% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.04% | ||
| Charleston Battery | 0.10% | 3.98% | 3.16% | 3.65% | 3.82% | 3.58% | 3.40% | 2.99% | 3.35% | 3.59% | 3.75% | 3.11% | |
| Charlotte Eagles | 0.10% | 3.00% | 2.48% | 3.21% | 3.03% | 2.74% | 2.94% | 2.62% | 2.97% | 3.15% | 3.06% | 2.57% | |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 0.08% | 2.42% | 2.29% | 2.35% | 2.24% | 2.26% | 2.00% | 1.81% | 2.31% | 2.14% | 2.15% | 1.96% | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 0.17% | 3.52% | 3.93% | 3.62% | 3.79% | 3.76% | 3.35% | 3.14% | 3.57% | 3.63% | 4.02% | 3.84% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 0.14% | 3.22% | 3.22% | 3.12% | 3.04% | 2.93% | 2.75% | 2.48% | 3.25% | 3.18% | 3.47% | 3.00% | |
| Orlando City SC | 0.24% | 4.78% | 4.76% | 4.01% | 4.70% | 4.58% | 4.91% | 4.48% | 4.34% | 4.85% | 4.82% | 4.96% | |
| Phoenix FC | 0.13% | 2.35% | 2.68% | 2.25% | 2.59% | 2.40% | 2.56% | 2.01% | 2.53% | 2.28% | 2.22% | 2.22% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.08% | 2.06% | 1.90% | 1.83% | 2.33% | 2.28% | 2.25% | 1.91% | 2.14% | 1.92% | 2.10% | 1.85% | |
| Richmond Kickers | 0.16% | 4.01% | 4.13% | 3.49% | 4.34% | 3.84% | 3.74% | 4.04% | 3.51% | 4.11% | 4.57% | 3.75% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 0.07% | 2.64% | 2.39% | 2.51% | 2.86% | 2.58% | 2.91% | 2.60% | 2.24% | 2.53% | 2.47% | 2.36% | |
| VSI Tampa Bay FC | 0.16% | 2.99% | 2.96% | 2.36% | 2.75% | 2.90% | 2.66% | 2.96% | 2.52% | 3.17% | 2.60% | 2.78% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 0.10% | 2.69% | 2.55% | 2.20% | 2.49% | 2.63% | 2.88% | 2.47% | 2.31% | 2.60% | 2.43% | 2.64% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Phoenix FC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | VSI Tampa Bay FC | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||
| Charleston Battery | 0.02% | 1.77% | 1.45% | 2.23% | 1.68% | 2.55% | 1.49% | 1.34% | 2.46% | 1.61% | 1.79% | 1.56% | |
| Charlotte Eagles | 0.04% | 1.67% | 0.99% | 1.40% | 1.43% | 1.96% | 1.24% | 0.98% | 1.82% | 1.31% | 1.27% | 1.11% | |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 0.04% | 0.91% | 1.03% | 0.92% | 0.86% | 1.45% | 0.83% | 0.60% | 1.12% | 0.66% | 1.00% | 0.83% | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 0.05% | 2.29% | 1.85% | 1.62% | 1.83% | 2.79% | 1.66% | 1.48% | 2.34% | 1.66% | 1.92% | 1.80% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 0.03% | 1.73% | 1.45% | 1.16% | 1.90% | 1.91% | 1.37% | 1.09% | 1.76% | 1.35% | 1.56% | 1.40% | |
| Orlando City SC | 0.04% | 3.08% | 2.84% | 2.04% | 3.39% | 2.97% | 2.62% | 2.28% | 3.75% | 2.52% | 2.74% | 2.45% | |
| Phoenix FC | 0.03% | 1.25% | 1.02% | 0.79% | 1.27% | 1.23% | 1.06% | 0.84% | 1.18% | 0.82% | 0.90% | 0.95% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.04% | 0.88% | 0.84% | 0.66% | 1.17% | 0.94% | 1.15% | 0.78% | 0.98% | 0.84% | 1.00% | 0.65% | |
| Richmond Kickers | 0.03% | 2.56% | 2.16% | 1.88% | 2.55% | 2.17% | 3.16% | 1.62% | 1.43% | 1.99% | 2.15% | 2.03% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 0.02% | 1.37% | 1.20% | 1.10% | 1.30% | 1.44% | 1.45% | 0.93% | 0.79% | 1.67% | 1.00% | 0.95% | |
| VSI Tampa Bay FC | 0.05% | 1.57% | 1.39% | 1.02% | 1.41% | 1.47% | 1.67% | 1.15% | 0.92% | 1.41% | 1.19% | 1.10% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 0.03% | 1.20% | 1.09% | 1.02% | 1.49% | 1.07% | 1.55% | 1.17% | 0.96% | 1.46% | 0.99% | 1.13% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Phoenix FC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | VSI Tampa Bay FC | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.01% | 0.02% | |||||||||||
| Charleston Battery | 0.80% | 0.74% | 1.12% | 1.06% | 1.68% | 0.64% | 0.59% | 1.36% | 0.57% | 0.70% | 0.83% | ||
| Charlotte Eagles | 0.80% | 0.44% | 0.89% | 0.71% | 0.98% | 0.53% | 0.42% | 0.82% | 0.51% | 0.62% | 0.61% | ||
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 0.38% | 0.31% | 0.45% | 0.38% | 0.66% | 0.28% | 0.26% | 0.55% | 0.34% | 0.39% | 0.37% | ||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 0.02% | 1.12% | 0.94% | 0.64% | 0.98% | 1.81% | 0.80% | 0.78% | 1.40% | 0.81% | 1.08% | 0.86% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 0.02% | 0.99% | 0.75% | 0.46% | 0.70% | 1.49% | 0.46% | 0.37% | 1.13% | 0.75% | 0.62% | 0.60% | |
| Orlando City SC | 2.06% | 1.62% | 1.10% | 2.14% | 1.55% | 1.26% | 1.04% | 2.45% | 1.67% | 1.55% | 1.39% | ||
| Phoenix FC | 0.50% | 0.53% | 0.22% | 0.46% | 0.40% | 0.78% | 0.33% | 0.67% | 0.45% | 0.35% | 0.30% | ||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.54% | 0.39% | 0.32% | 0.44% | 0.39% | 0.56% | 0.30% | 0.55% | 0.32% | 0.26% | 0.33% | ||
| Richmond Kickers | 0.04% | 1.38% | 1.00% | 0.81% | 1.61% | 1.22% | 2.16% | 0.88% | 0.71% | 0.98% | 1.19% | 1.04% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 0.65% | 0.41% | 0.37% | 0.76% | 0.57% | 0.89% | 0.41% | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.54% | 0.39% | ||
| VSI Tampa Bay FC | 0.02% | 0.79% | 0.58% | 0.46% | 0.85% | 0.52% | 0.97% | 0.44% | 0.34% | 0.62% | 0.44% | 0.53% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 0.65% | 0.56% | 0.32% | 0.63% | 0.58% | 0.91% | 0.35% | 0.35% | 0.60% | 0.49% | 0.47% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to USL Championship | Won USL Championship |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Kickers | 72.23% | 49.38% | 32.91% |
| Orlando City SC | 73.72% | 51.87% | 27.57% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 69.14% | 29.78% | 14.19% |
| Charleston Battery | 66.61% | 26.98% | 10.81% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 33.39% | 13.13% | 5.30% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 30.86% | 12.64% | 3.94% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 27.77% | 8.20% | 2.71% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26.28% | 8.02% | 2.57% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 66.61% | |||||||
| Charlotte Eagles | 30.86% | |||||||
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 27.77% | |||||||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 69.14% | |||||||
| Los Angeles Blues | 33.39% | |||||||
| Orlando City SC | 73.72% | |||||||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26.28% | |||||||
| Richmond Kickers | 72.23% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 15.11% | 11.87% | ||||||
| Charlotte Eagles | 5.89% | 6.75% | ||||||
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 2.71% | 5.49% | ||||||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 13.68% | 16.10% | ||||||
| Los Angeles Blues | 6.74% | 6.39% | ||||||
| Orlando City SC | 34.32% | 17.55% | ||||||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 5.31% | 2.71% | ||||||
| Richmond Kickers | 15.51% | 33.87% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 2.65% | 1.47% | 2.66% | 4.03% | ||||
| Charlotte Eagles | 1.20% | 0.45% | 1.67% | 0.62% | ||||
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 0.72% | 0.39% | 1.17% | 0.43% | ||||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 5.22% | 2.47% | 5.00% | 1.50% | ||||
| Los Angeles Blues | 1.05% | 0.78% | 1.40% | 2.07% | ||||
| Orlando City SC | 4.73% | 2.98% | 10.69% | 9.17% | ||||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.27% | 0.26% | 0.84% | 1.20% | ||||
| Richmond Kickers | 9.03% | 4.52% | 16.46% | 2.90% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Richmond Kickers
32.91% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Dayton Dutch Lions
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
72.23%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
68.59%
Win Prob
67.78%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
50.02%
Win Prob
64.22%
Orlando City SC
27.57% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
73.72%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
66.17%
Win Prob
69.43%
→
USL Championship
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
38.77%
Win Prob
68.13%
Harrisburg City Islanders
14.19% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Charlotte Eagles
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
69.14%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
54.06%
Win Prob
32.22%
→
USL Championship
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
36.79%
Win Prob
66.24%
Charleston Battery
10.81% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Los Angeles Blues
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
66.61%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
56.00%
Win Prob
30.57%
→
USL Championship
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
37.28%
Win Prob
30.86%
Los Angeles Blues
5.30% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
33.39%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
51.33%
Win Prob
27.75%
→
USL Championship
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
39.06%
Win Prob
31.41%
Charlotte Eagles
3.94% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
30.86%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
53.40%
Win Prob
30.32%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
42.39%
Win Prob
26.09%
Dayton Dutch Lions
2.71% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
27.77%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
66.95%
Win Prob
28.64%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
43.17%
Win Prob
28.19%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2.57% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
26.28%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
66.21%
Win Prob
30.91%
→
USL Championship
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
46.69%
Win Prob
29.27%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-14 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1470.10 | 1507.30 | 23.68% | 14.29% | 62.03% | -2.16 | 0 |
| 2013-04-20 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-2 | 1467.94 | 1506.64 | 23.58% | 14.15% | 62.27% | -2.14 | 0 |
| 2013-04-21 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-4 | 1465.80 | 1505.45 | 23.52% | 14.07% | 62.42% | -4.05 | 0 |
| 2013-05-04 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 1-3 | 1461.75 | 1503.40 | 23.38% | 13.89% | 62.73% | -1.84 | 0 |
| 2013-05-05 | @ Orlando City SC | L 2-7 | 1459.91 | 1541.13 | 20.77% | 10.42% | 68.81% | -2.90 | 0 |
| 2013-05-11 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-4 | 1457.01 | 1512.74 | 22.43% | 12.63% | 64.93% | -3.79 | 0 |
| 2013-05-12 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-4 | 1453.22 | 1516.37 | 21.95% | 11.98% | 66.08% | -2.37 | 0 |
| 2013-05-25 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-2 | 1450.85 | 1473.96 | 24.67% | 15.54% | 59.79% | -2.29 | 0 |
| 2013-05-27 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-3 | 1448.56 | 1479.75 | 24.10% | 14.82% | 61.08% | -1.91 | 0 |
| 2013-06-08 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 0-8 | 1446.65 | 1506.49 | 22.16% | 12.27% | 65.57% | -7.17 | 0 |
| 2013-06-10 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-2 | 1439.48 | 1550.91 | 18.85% | 8.01% | 73.14% | -1.57 | 0 |
| 2013-06-15 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-4 | 1437.91 | 1521.65 | 20.61% | 10.21% | 69.18% | -3.36 | 0 |
| 2013-06-16 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-3 | 1434.55 | 1527.45 | 20.03% | 9.45% | 70.52% | -1.48 | 0 |
| 2013-06-22 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 1-2 | 1433.07 | 1491.55 | 22.25% | 12.39% | 65.36% | -0.99 | 0 |
| 2013-06-23 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-4 | 1432.08 | 1482.27 | 22.80% | 13.13% | 64.07% | -2.50 | 0 |
| 2013-07-05 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-6 | 1429.58 | 1503.03 | 21.27% | 11.08% | 67.64% | -5.15 | 0 |
| 2013-07-07 | @ Phoenix FC | L 0-1 | 1424.43 | 1483.41 | 22.22% | 12.34% | 65.44% | -1.04 | 0 |
| 2013-07-12 | @ Phoenix FC | L 0-1 | 1423.39 | 1484.46 | 22.08% | 12.16% | 65.76% | -1.04 | 0 |
| 2013-07-14 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-4 | 1422.35 | 1514.26 | 20.09% | 9.53% | 70.38% | -3.25 | 0 |
| 2013-07-27 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-3 | 1419.10 | 1481.45 | 22.00% | 12.05% | 65.95% | -1.68 | 0 |
| 2013-07-28 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1417.42 | 1489.20 | 21.38% | 11.23% | 67.39% | -0.99 | 0 |
| 2013-08-11 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-5 | 1416.43 | 1498.30 | 20.73% | 10.36% | 68.90% | -4.18 | 0 |
| 2013-08-16 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-3 | 1412.25 | 1521.53 | 18.99% | 8.17% | 72.85% | -2.30 | 0 |
| 2013-08-18 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-4 | 1409.95 | 1494.44 | 20.56% | 10.15% | 69.29% | -2.16 | 0 |
| 2013-04-14 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-4 | 1508.54 | 1505.85 | 26.61% | 17.74% | 55.65% | -3.09 | 0 |
| 2013-04-21 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-0 | 1505.45 | 1465.80 | 62.42% | 14.07% | 23.52% | +4.05 | 3 |
| 2013-04-28 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-0 | 1509.50 | 1474.21 | 61.73% | 14.46% | 23.82% | +2.17 | 6 |
| 2013-05-02 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1511.67 | 1512.69 | 26.32% | 17.43% | 56.25% | +2.40 | 9 |
| 2013-05-04 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1514.07 | 1480.68 | 29.24% | 20.03% | 50.73% | +2.36 | 12 |
| 2013-05-12 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 4-2 | 1516.43 | 1494.38 | 59.62% | 15.63% | 24.75% | +1.78 | 15 |
| 2013-05-15 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-1 | 1518.21 | 1511.24 | 26.95% | 18.08% | 54.96% | -1.36 | 15 |
| 2013-05-26 | Rochester Rhinos | T 0-0 | 1516.85 | 1491.43 | 60.16% | 15.34% | 24.51% | -0.42 | 16 |
| 2013-06-01 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1516.43 | 1513.88 | 56.49% | 17.31% | 26.20% | -2.41 | 16 |
| 2013-06-06 | Charlotte Eagles | T 2-2 | 1514.02 | 1502.61 | 57.92% | 16.56% | 25.53% | -0.25 | 17 |
| 2013-06-16 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1513.77 | 1480.08 | 29.27% | 20.05% | 50.69% | +0.22 | 18 |
| 2013-06-16 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 1-1 | 1513.99 | 1491.81 | 28.23% | 19.25% | 52.52% | +0.26 | 19 |
| 2013-06-23 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | T 0-0 | 1514.25 | 1508.10 | 57.07% | 17.00% | 25.93% | -0.37 | 20 |
| 2013-07-06 | Orlando City SC | T 1-1 | 1513.88 | 1547.57 | 50.69% | 20.05% | 29.27% | -0.22 | 21 |
| 2013-07-12 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1513.66 | 1547.79 | 23.90% | 14.56% | 61.54% | -1.10 | 21 |
| 2013-07-14 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 2-4 | 1512.56 | 1508.18 | 26.75% | 17.88% | 55.38% | -1.96 | 21 |
| 2013-07-20 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1510.60 | 1485.63 | 60.08% | 15.38% | 24.54% | +1.20 | 24 |
| 2013-07-25 | Phoenix FC | W 5-1 | 1511.80 | 1485.36 | 60.32% | 15.24% | 24.44% | +3.56 | 27 |
| 2013-07-28 | Los Angeles Blues | W 3-0 | 1515.36 | 1515.38 | 56.08% | 17.52% | 26.40% | +3.62 | 30 |
| 2013-08-03 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1518.98 | 1486.28 | 29.18% | 19.98% | 50.84% | -1.40 | 30 |
| 2013-08-04 | Richmond Kickers | W 5-2 | 1517.58 | 1539.42 | 52.58% | 19.22% | 28.20% | +2.87 | 33 |
| 2013-08-09 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1520.45 | 1511.56 | 27.11% | 18.24% | 54.65% | -1.29 | 33 |
| 2013-08-11 | @ Phoenix FC | W 1-0 | 1519.16 | 1487.47 | 29.08% | 19.91% | 51.00% | +2.37 | 36 |
| 2013-08-16 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-0 | 1521.53 | 1412.25 | 72.85% | 8.17% | 18.99% | +2.30 | 39 |
| 2013-04-14 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1507.30 | 1470.10 | 62.03% | 14.29% | 23.68% | +2.15 | 3 |
| 2013-04-20 | Rochester Rhinos | T 0-0 | 1509.45 | 1499.94 | 57.61% | 16.72% | 25.67% | -0.37 | 4 |
| 2013-04-24 | Orlando City SC | T 1-1 | 1509.08 | 1537.05 | 51.60% | 19.66% | 28.75% | -0.24 | 5 |
| 2013-04-27 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-0 | 1508.84 | 1476.41 | 61.27% | 14.71% | 24.01% | +2.20 | 8 |
| 2013-05-05 | @ Richmond Kickers | T 3-3 | 1511.04 | 1516.57 | 25.97% | 17.06% | 56.97% | +0.20 | 9 |
| 2013-05-15 | Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1511.24 | 1518.21 | 54.96% | 18.08% | 26.95% | +1.36 | 12 |
| 2013-05-24 | @ Phoenix FC | T 2-2 | 1512.60 | 1490.19 | 28.25% | 19.26% | 52.49% | +0.19 | 13 |
| 2013-05-26 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 3-4 | 1512.79 | 1503.99 | 27.10% | 18.23% | 54.67% | -1.20 | 13 |
| 2013-06-02 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-4 | 1511.59 | 1516.28 | 55.33% | 17.90% | 26.77% | -8.98 | 13 |
| 2013-06-06 | @ Charleston Battery | T 2-2 | 1502.61 | 1514.02 | 25.53% | 16.56% | 57.92% | +0.25 | 14 |
| 2013-06-22 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 1-0 | 1502.86 | 1509.46 | 55.02% | 18.05% | 26.92% | +1.36 | 17 |
| 2013-06-23 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | T 0-0 | 1504.22 | 1489.63 | 27.58% | 18.68% | 53.74% | +0.31 | 18 |
| 2013-06-29 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 2-2 | 1504.53 | 1485.77 | 27.94% | 18.99% | 53.07% | +0.19 | 19 |
| 2013-07-05 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-2 | 1504.72 | 1484.78 | 28.04% | 19.08% | 52.88% | +2.18 | 22 |
| 2013-07-07 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 2-2 | 1506.90 | 1489.95 | 27.78% | 18.86% | 53.36% | +0.20 | 23 |
| 2013-07-14 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 3-2 | 1507.10 | 1490.64 | 58.72% | 16.12% | 25.15% | +1.11 | 26 |
| 2013-07-21 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 0-0 | 1508.21 | 1484.43 | 59.90% | 15.48% | 24.62% | -0.42 | 27 |
| 2013-07-26 | Los Angeles Blues | T 3-3 | 1507.79 | 1515.20 | 54.89% | 18.12% | 26.99% | -0.18 | 28 |
| 2013-07-28 | Phoenix FC | L 0-4 | 1507.61 | 1481.80 | 60.22% | 15.30% | 24.48% | -9.52 | 28 |
| 2013-08-03 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1498.09 | 1537.09 | 49.84% | 20.39% | 29.77% | -2.33 | 28 |
| 2013-08-08 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1495.76 | 1530.00 | 23.89% | 14.55% | 61.56% | +2.54 | 31 |
| 2013-08-11 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 5-0 | 1498.30 | 1416.43 | 68.90% | 10.36% | 20.73% | +4.19 | 34 |
| 2013-08-17 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | T 3-3 | 1502.49 | 1495.24 | 26.98% | 18.11% | 54.92% | +0.18 | 35 |
| 2013-08-18 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1502.67 | 1552.86 | 22.80% | 13.13% | 64.07% | -1.09 | 35 |
| 2013-04-21 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-1 | 1480.63 | 1477.64 | 56.56% | 17.27% | 26.17% | +1.23 | 3 |
| 2013-04-27 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 1-0 | 1481.86 | 1506.06 | 24.60% | 15.44% | 59.96% | +2.66 | 6 |
| 2013-04-28 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-4 | 1484.52 | 1537.29 | 22.63% | 12.90% | 64.47% | -3.84 | 6 |
| 2013-05-04 | Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1480.68 | 1514.07 | 50.73% | 20.03% | 29.24% | -2.36 | 6 |
| 2013-05-12 | Phoenix FC | W 4-3 | 1478.32 | 1491.40 | 53.98% | 18.56% | 27.46% | +1.21 | 9 |
| 2013-05-19 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 2-2 | 1479.53 | 1474.19 | 26.82% | 17.95% | 55.22% | +0.22 | 10 |
| 2013-05-27 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-1 | 1479.75 | 1448.56 | 61.08% | 14.82% | 24.10% | +1.91 | 13 |
| 2013-06-03 | Los Angeles Blues | T 0-0 | 1481.66 | 1505.39 | 52.27% | 19.36% | 28.37% | -0.28 | 14 |
| 2013-06-17 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 2-1 | 1481.38 | 1510.85 | 51.36% | 19.76% | 28.88% | +1.39 | 17 |
| 2013-06-22 | @ Phoenix FC | T 0-0 | 1482.77 | 1484.45 | 26.27% | 17.38% | 56.35% | +0.36 | 18 |
| 2013-06-24 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1483.13 | 1505.67 | 24.71% | 15.59% | 59.70% | +2.64 | 21 |
| 2013-06-29 | Charlotte Eagles | T 2-2 | 1485.77 | 1504.53 | 53.07% | 18.99% | 27.94% | -0.19 | 22 |
| 2013-07-04 | Rochester Rhinos | W 3-1 | 1485.58 | 1492.16 | 55.02% | 18.05% | 26.92% | +2.21 | 25 |
| 2013-07-07 | Richmond Kickers | L 2-3 | 1487.79 | 1530.33 | 49.28% | 20.61% | 30.11% | -2.07 | 25 |
| 2013-07-15 | Orlando City SC | T 3-3 | 1485.72 | 1548.88 | 46.05% | 21.70% | 32.25% | -0.09 | 26 |
| 2013-07-20 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1485.63 | 1510.60 | 24.54% | 15.38% | 60.08% | -1.20 | 26 |
| 2013-07-21 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 0-0 | 1484.43 | 1508.21 | 24.62% | 15.48% | 59.90% | +0.42 | 27 |
| 2013-07-25 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-5 | 1484.85 | 1522.56 | 23.65% | 14.24% | 62.11% | -3.40 | 27 |
| 2013-07-27 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-1 | 1481.45 | 1419.10 | 65.95% | 12.05% | 22.00% | +1.68 | 30 |
| 2013-08-03 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 3-1 | 1483.13 | 1490.19 | 25.86% | 16.93% | 57.22% | +4.20 | 33 |
| 2013-08-05 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-1 | 1487.33 | 1487.69 | 56.02% | 17.55% | 26.43% | -2.54 | 33 |
| 2013-08-10 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1484.79 | 1490.22 | 25.98% | 17.07% | 56.95% | -1.22 | 33 |
| 2013-08-11 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 2-5 | 1483.57 | 1536.55 | 22.62% | 12.88% | 64.51% | -2.14 | 33 |
| 2013-08-18 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 3-1 | 1481.43 | 1529.39 | 48.43% | 20.92% | 30.65% | +2.57 | 36 |
| 2013-04-14 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-1 | 1506.65 | 1479.90 | 28.64% | 19.57% | 51.79% | +2.26 | 3 |
| 2013-04-28 | Rochester Rhinos | W 5-1 | 1508.91 | 1497.36 | 57.94% | 16.54% | 25.52% | +3.78 | 6 |
| 2013-05-02 | Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1512.69 | 1511.67 | 56.25% | 17.43% | 26.32% | -2.40 | 6 |
| 2013-05-05 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1510.29 | 1493.59 | 27.76% | 18.84% | 53.40% | +2.45 | 9 |
| 2013-05-11 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-0 | 1512.74 | 1457.01 | 64.93% | 12.63% | 22.43% | +3.79 | 12 |
| 2013-05-18 | Orlando City SC | T 2-2 | 1516.53 | 1544.03 | 51.67% | 19.63% | 28.70% | -0.18 | 13 |
| 2013-05-25 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1516.35 | 1518.39 | 26.24% | 17.35% | 56.41% | -2.47 | 13 |
| 2013-06-01 | @ Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1513.88 | 1516.43 | 26.20% | 17.31% | 56.49% | +2.40 | 16 |
| 2013-06-02 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 4-0 | 1516.28 | 1511.59 | 26.77% | 17.90% | 55.33% | +8.98 | 19 |
| 2013-06-06 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-0 | 1525.26 | 1491.42 | 61.50% | 14.59% | 23.92% | +2.19 | 22 |
| 2013-06-16 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-1 | 1527.45 | 1434.55 | 70.52% | 9.45% | 20.03% | +1.48 | 25 |
| 2013-06-22 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 3-4 | 1528.93 | 1479.86 | 63.90% | 13.23% | 22.88% | -2.42 | 25 |
| 2013-06-29 | Phoenix FC | W 2-1 | 1526.51 | 1484.09 | 62.85% | 13.82% | 23.33% | +1.05 | 28 |
| 2013-07-07 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1527.56 | 1489.21 | 29.71% | 20.35% | 49.94% | -1.43 | 28 |
| 2013-07-11 | Los Angeles Blues | L 2-4 | 1526.13 | 1510.44 | 58.60% | 16.19% | 25.21% | -3.82 | 28 |
| 2013-07-14 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1522.31 | 1532.60 | 54.43% | 18.35% | 27.22% | -2.48 | 28 |
| 2013-07-20 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 2-0 | 1519.83 | 1510.15 | 27.18% | 18.30% | 54.53% | +4.69 | 31 |
| 2013-07-21 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-3 | 1524.52 | 1549.11 | 24.57% | 15.41% | 60.03% | -1.96 | 31 |
| 2013-07-25 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 5-1 | 1522.56 | 1484.85 | 62.11% | 14.24% | 23.65% | +3.40 | 34 |
| 2013-08-01 | @ Phoenix FC | W 3-1 | 1525.96 | 1491.32 | 29.36% | 20.11% | 50.53% | +3.85 | 37 |
| 2013-08-04 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 2-2 | 1529.81 | 1511.76 | 27.87% | 18.94% | 53.18% | +0.19 | 38 |
| 2013-08-08 | Charlotte Eagles | L 1-2 | 1530.00 | 1495.76 | 61.56% | 14.55% | 23.89% | -2.54 | 38 |
| 2013-08-11 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 3-1 | 1527.46 | 1498.40 | 60.74% | 15.01% | 24.25% | +1.93 | 41 |
| 2013-08-18 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-3 | 1529.39 | 1481.43 | 30.65% | 20.92% | 48.43% | -2.57 | 41 |
| 2013-03-24 | Phoenix FC | W 2-0 | 1497.11 | 1500.00 | 55.62% | 17.75% | 26.63% | +2.52 | 3 |
| 2013-04-03 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 0-1 | 1499.63 | 1498.66 | 56.24% | 17.44% | 26.32% | -2.54 | 3 |
| 2013-04-11 | Orlando City SC | W 1-0 | 1497.09 | 1535.63 | 49.91% | 20.36% | 29.73% | +1.52 | 6 |
| 2013-04-15 | @ Phoenix FC | W 3-1 | 1498.61 | 1494.95 | 26.69% | 17.82% | 55.49% | +4.11 | 9 |
| 2013-04-20 | @ Orlando City SC | L 2-3 | 1502.72 | 1536.01 | 23.95% | 14.64% | 61.41% | -1.04 | 9 |
| 2013-04-22 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 2-3 | 1501.68 | 1504.89 | 26.15% | 17.25% | 56.60% | -1.17 | 9 |
| 2013-04-27 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 4-0 | 1500.51 | 1508.78 | 54.75% | 18.19% | 27.06% | +4.89 | 12 |
| 2013-05-06 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1505.40 | 1472.40 | 61.36% | 14.66% | 23.98% | -0.45 | 13 |
| 2013-05-18 | @ Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1504.95 | 1518.74 | 25.35% | 16.35% | 58.30% | +0.35 | 14 |
| 2013-05-19 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1505.30 | 1492.61 | 27.42% | 18.53% | 54.04% | -1.31 | 14 |
| 2013-05-26 | Charlotte Eagles | W 4-3 | 1503.99 | 1512.79 | 54.67% | 18.23% | 27.10% | +1.20 | 17 |
| 2013-06-01 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 2-2 | 1505.19 | 1491.85 | 27.48% | 18.58% | 53.94% | +0.20 | 18 |
| 2013-06-03 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 0-0 | 1505.39 | 1481.66 | 28.37% | 19.36% | 52.27% | +0.28 | 19 |
| 2013-06-24 | Dayton Dutch Lions | L 0-1 | 1505.67 | 1483.13 | 59.70% | 15.59% | 24.71% | -2.64 | 19 |
| 2013-07-05 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 6-0 | 1503.03 | 1429.58 | 67.64% | 11.08% | 21.27% | +5.15 | 22 |
| 2013-07-07 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-1 | 1508.18 | 1482.60 | 28.53% | 19.49% | 51.98% | +2.26 | 25 |
| 2013-07-11 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 4-2 | 1510.44 | 1526.13 | 25.21% | 16.19% | 58.60% | +3.82 | 28 |
| 2013-07-14 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-0 | 1514.26 | 1422.35 | 70.38% | 9.53% | 20.09% | +3.25 | 31 |
| 2013-07-22 | Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1517.51 | 1535.22 | 53.24% | 18.92% | 27.85% | -2.31 | 31 |
| 2013-07-26 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 3-3 | 1515.20 | 1507.79 | 26.99% | 18.12% | 54.89% | +0.18 | 32 |
| 2013-07-28 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-3 | 1515.38 | 1515.36 | 26.40% | 17.52% | 56.08% | -3.62 | 32 |
| 2013-08-04 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 2-2 | 1511.76 | 1529.81 | 53.18% | 18.94% | 27.87% | -0.20 | 33 |
| 2013-08-09 | Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1511.56 | 1520.45 | 54.65% | 18.24% | 27.11% | +1.29 | 36 |
| 2013-08-18 | Rochester Rhinos | W 2-1 | 1512.85 | 1489.53 | 59.82% | 15.52% | 24.66% | +1.14 | 39 |
| 2013-04-08 | @ Phoenix FC | W 3-1 | 1531.77 | 1498.81 | 29.20% | 20.00% | 50.80% | +3.86 | 3 |
| 2013-04-11 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-1 | 1535.63 | 1497.09 | 29.73% | 20.36% | 49.91% | -1.52 | 3 |
| 2013-04-15 | Rochester Rhinos | W 3-1 | 1534.11 | 1501.85 | 61.25% | 14.73% | 24.03% | +1.90 | 6 |
| 2013-04-20 | Los Angeles Blues | W 3-2 | 1536.01 | 1502.72 | 61.41% | 14.64% | 23.95% | +1.04 | 9 |
| 2013-04-24 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 1-1 | 1537.05 | 1509.08 | 28.75% | 19.66% | 51.60% | +0.24 | 10 |
| 2013-04-28 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 4-0 | 1537.29 | 1484.52 | 64.47% | 12.90% | 22.63% | +3.84 | 13 |
| 2013-05-05 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 7-2 | 1541.13 | 1459.91 | 68.81% | 10.42% | 20.77% | +2.90 | 16 |
| 2013-05-18 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 2-2 | 1544.03 | 1516.53 | 28.70% | 19.63% | 51.67% | +0.18 | 17 |
| 2013-05-19 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1544.21 | 1493.70 | 30.91% | 21.07% | 48.02% | +2.27 | 20 |
| 2013-05-26 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 4-1 | 1546.48 | 1493.92 | 64.44% | 12.91% | 22.64% | +2.48 | 23 |
| 2013-06-08 | Phoenix FC | W 2-0 | 1548.96 | 1487.58 | 65.80% | 12.13% | 22.06% | +1.95 | 26 |
| 2013-06-10 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1550.91 | 1439.48 | 73.14% | 8.01% | 18.85% | +1.57 | 29 |
| 2013-06-30 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1552.48 | 1525.01 | 60.48% | 15.15% | 24.36% | -5.03 | 29 |
| 2013-07-04 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | T 2-2 | 1547.45 | 1489.33 | 31.71% | 21.46% | 46.83% | +0.12 | 30 |
| 2013-07-06 | @ Charleston Battery | T 1-1 | 1547.57 | 1513.88 | 29.27% | 20.05% | 50.69% | +0.22 | 31 |
| 2013-07-12 | Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1547.79 | 1513.66 | 61.54% | 14.56% | 23.90% | +1.09 | 34 |
| 2013-07-15 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 3-3 | 1548.88 | 1485.72 | 32.25% | 21.70% | 46.05% | +0.09 | 35 |
| 2013-07-18 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1548.97 | 1480.34 | 32.87% | 21.93% | 45.20% | +0.14 | 36 |
| 2013-07-21 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 3-1 | 1549.11 | 1524.52 | 60.03% | 15.41% | 24.57% | +1.97 | 39 |
| 2013-08-04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-1 | 1551.08 | 1484.00 | 66.68% | 11.63% | 21.69% | -2.85 | 39 |
| 2013-08-05 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 3-0 | 1548.23 | 1505.69 | 30.11% | 20.61% | 49.28% | +6.34 | 42 |
| 2013-08-07 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 3-2 | 1554.57 | 1499.35 | 64.85% | 12.68% | 22.47% | +0.95 | 45 |
| 2013-08-15 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1555.52 | 1538.70 | 27.77% | 18.85% | 53.38% | -2.66 | 45 |
| 2013-08-18 | Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1552.86 | 1502.67 | 64.07% | 13.13% | 22.80% | +1.08 | 48 |
| 2013-03-24 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-2 | 1500.00 | 1497.11 | 26.63% | 17.75% | 55.62% | -2.52 | 0 |
| 2013-03-31 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 1-0 | 1497.48 | 1500.00 | 55.68% | 17.72% | 26.60% | +1.33 | 3 |
| 2013-04-08 | Orlando City SC | L 1-3 | 1498.81 | 1531.77 | 50.80% | 20.00% | 29.20% | -3.86 | 3 |
| 2013-04-15 | Los Angeles Blues | L 1-3 | 1494.95 | 1498.61 | 55.49% | 17.82% | 26.69% | -4.11 | 3 |
| 2013-04-29 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 3-1 | 1490.84 | 1503.90 | 53.98% | 18.56% | 27.45% | +2.27 | 6 |
| 2013-05-04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1493.11 | 1472.03 | 59.46% | 15.72% | 24.82% | -0.37 | 7 |
| 2013-05-10 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-2 | 1492.74 | 1472.84 | 28.03% | 19.08% | 52.89% | -1.34 | 7 |
| 2013-05-12 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 3-4 | 1491.40 | 1478.32 | 27.46% | 18.56% | 53.98% | -1.21 | 7 |
| 2013-05-24 | Charlotte Eagles | T 2-2 | 1490.19 | 1512.60 | 52.49% | 19.26% | 28.25% | -0.19 | 8 |
| 2013-06-01 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1490.00 | 1520.87 | 24.12% | 14.85% | 61.03% | -1.17 | 8 |
| 2013-06-02 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1488.83 | 1490.18 | 26.29% | 17.41% | 56.30% | -1.25 | 8 |
| 2013-06-08 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-2 | 1487.58 | 1548.96 | 22.06% | 12.13% | 65.80% | -1.95 | 8 |
| 2013-06-10 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 0-1 | 1485.63 | 1513.66 | 24.32% | 15.10% | 60.57% | -1.18 | 8 |
| 2013-06-22 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 0-0 | 1484.45 | 1482.77 | 56.35% | 17.38% | 26.27% | -0.36 | 9 |
| 2013-06-29 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1484.09 | 1526.51 | 23.33% | 13.82% | 62.85% | -1.05 | 9 |
| 2013-06-30 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 0-0 | 1483.04 | 1492.54 | 25.67% | 16.72% | 57.61% | +0.37 | 10 |
| 2013-07-07 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1483.41 | 1424.43 | 65.44% | 12.34% | 22.22% | +1.05 | 13 |
| 2013-07-12 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1484.46 | 1423.39 | 65.76% | 12.16% | 22.08% | +1.04 | 16 |
| 2013-07-20 | Richmond Kickers | T 2-2 | 1485.50 | 1535.08 | 48.17% | 21.02% | 30.81% | -0.14 | 17 |
| 2013-07-25 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-5 | 1485.36 | 1511.80 | 24.44% | 15.24% | 60.32% | -3.56 | 17 |
| 2013-07-28 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 4-0 | 1481.80 | 1507.61 | 24.48% | 15.30% | 60.22% | +9.52 | 20 |
| 2013-08-01 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-3 | 1491.32 | 1525.96 | 50.53% | 20.11% | 29.36% | -3.85 | 20 |
| 2013-08-11 | Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1487.47 | 1519.16 | 51.00% | 19.91% | 29.08% | -2.37 | 20 |
| 2013-08-17 | Rochester Rhinos | L 3-4 | 1485.10 | 1487.32 | 55.73% | 17.70% | 26.57% | -2.20 | 20 |
| 2013-04-07 | @ Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1479.48 | 1506.27 | 24.41% | 15.21% | 60.38% | +0.42 | 1 |
| 2013-04-14 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1479.90 | 1506.65 | 51.79% | 19.57% | 28.64% | -2.26 | 1 |
| 2013-04-21 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-2 | 1477.64 | 1480.63 | 26.17% | 17.27% | 56.56% | -1.23 | 1 |
| 2013-04-27 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1476.41 | 1508.84 | 24.01% | 14.71% | 61.27% | -2.20 | 1 |
| 2013-04-28 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-2 | 1474.21 | 1509.50 | 23.82% | 14.46% | 61.73% | -2.18 | 1 |
| 2013-05-04 | @ Phoenix FC | T 1-1 | 1472.03 | 1493.11 | 24.82% | 15.72% | 59.46% | +0.37 | 2 |
| 2013-05-06 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 0-0 | 1472.40 | 1505.40 | 23.98% | 14.66% | 61.36% | +0.44 | 3 |
| 2013-05-10 | Phoenix FC | W 2-1 | 1472.84 | 1492.74 | 52.89% | 19.08% | 28.03% | +1.35 | 6 |
| 2013-05-19 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 2-2 | 1474.19 | 1479.53 | 55.22% | 17.95% | 26.82% | -0.23 | 7 |
| 2013-05-25 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1473.96 | 1450.85 | 59.79% | 15.54% | 24.67% | +2.28 | 10 |
| 2013-06-02 | Rochester Rhinos | W 3-0 | 1476.24 | 1491.64 | 53.61% | 18.74% | 27.65% | +3.84 | 13 |
| 2013-06-16 | Charleston Battery | T 1-1 | 1480.08 | 1513.77 | 50.69% | 20.05% | 29.27% | -0.22 | 14 |
| 2013-06-22 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 4-3 | 1479.86 | 1528.93 | 22.88% | 13.23% | 63.90% | +2.41 | 17 |
| 2013-06-23 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-1 | 1482.27 | 1432.08 | 64.07% | 13.13% | 22.80% | +2.51 | 20 |
| 2013-07-05 | Charlotte Eagles | L 2-3 | 1484.78 | 1504.72 | 52.88% | 19.08% | 28.04% | -2.18 | 20 |
| 2013-07-07 | Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1482.60 | 1508.18 | 51.98% | 19.49% | 28.53% | -2.26 | 20 |
| 2013-07-18 | Orlando City SC | T 0-0 | 1480.34 | 1548.97 | 45.20% | 21.93% | 32.87% | -0.15 | 21 |
| 2013-07-21 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-1 | 1480.19 | 1489.88 | 54.53% | 18.30% | 27.18% | +1.30 | 24 |
| 2013-08-03 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 2-1 | 1481.49 | 1508.20 | 24.42% | 15.22% | 60.36% | +2.51 | 27 |
| 2013-08-04 | @ Orlando City SC | W 1-0 | 1484.00 | 1551.08 | 21.69% | 11.63% | 66.68% | +2.85 | 30 |
| 2013-08-10 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1486.85 | 1485.99 | 26.47% | 17.59% | 55.95% | -1.33 | 30 |
| 2013-08-11 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 3-2 | 1485.52 | 1496.47 | 54.32% | 18.40% | 27.28% | +1.23 | 33 |
| 2013-08-15 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-4 | 1486.75 | 1491.44 | 26.04% | 17.13% | 56.84% | -3.00 | 33 |
| 2013-08-18 | Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1483.75 | 1541.35 | 46.91% | 21.44% | 31.65% | -0.15 | 34 |
| 2013-04-07 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1506.27 | 1479.48 | 60.38% | 15.21% | 24.41% | -0.42 | 1 |
| 2013-04-14 | Charleston Battery | W 4-1 | 1505.85 | 1508.54 | 55.65% | 17.74% | 26.61% | +3.08 | 4 |
| 2013-04-21 | Rochester Rhinos | W 4-1 | 1508.93 | 1500.32 | 57.47% | 16.80% | 25.74% | +2.96 | 7 |
| 2013-05-04 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-0 | 1511.89 | 1501.63 | 27.22% | 18.34% | 54.43% | +4.68 | 10 |
| 2013-05-05 | Charlotte Eagles | T 3-3 | 1516.57 | 1511.04 | 56.97% | 17.06% | 25.97% | -0.20 | 11 |
| 2013-05-12 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-1 | 1516.37 | 1453.22 | 66.08% | 11.98% | 21.95% | +2.37 | 14 |
| 2013-05-18 | Los Angeles Blues | T 1-1 | 1518.74 | 1504.95 | 58.30% | 16.35% | 25.35% | -0.35 | 15 |
| 2013-05-25 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-0 | 1518.39 | 1516.35 | 56.41% | 17.35% | 26.24% | +2.48 | 18 |
| 2013-06-01 | Phoenix FC | W 1-0 | 1520.87 | 1490.00 | 61.03% | 14.85% | 24.12% | +1.17 | 21 |
| 2013-06-09 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 1-1 | 1522.04 | 1489.24 | 61.33% | 14.68% | 23.99% | -0.39 | 22 |
| 2013-06-15 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-0 | 1521.65 | 1437.91 | 69.18% | 10.21% | 20.61% | +3.36 | 25 |
| 2013-06-30 | @ Orlando City SC | W 2-0 | 1525.01 | 1552.48 | 24.36% | 15.15% | 60.48% | +5.03 | 28 |
| 2013-07-01 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | T 0-0 | 1530.04 | 1508.47 | 28.18% | 19.20% | 52.62% | +0.29 | 29 |
| 2013-07-07 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 3-2 | 1530.33 | 1487.79 | 30.11% | 20.61% | 49.28% | +2.07 | 32 |
| 2013-07-13 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 1-1 | 1532.40 | 1489.75 | 30.12% | 20.61% | 49.26% | +0.20 | 33 |
| 2013-07-14 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 1-0 | 1532.60 | 1522.31 | 27.22% | 18.35% | 54.43% | +2.48 | 36 |
| 2013-07-20 | @ Phoenix FC | T 2-2 | 1535.08 | 1485.50 | 30.81% | 21.02% | 48.17% | +0.14 | 37 |
| 2013-07-22 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1535.22 | 1517.51 | 27.85% | 18.92% | 53.24% | +2.30 | 40 |
| 2013-07-29 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | T 0-0 | 1537.52 | 1507.77 | 60.85% | 14.95% | 24.20% | -0.43 | 41 |
| 2013-08-03 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1537.09 | 1498.09 | 29.77% | 20.39% | 49.84% | +2.33 | 44 |
| 2013-08-04 | @ Charleston Battery | L 2-5 | 1539.42 | 1517.58 | 28.20% | 19.22% | 52.58% | -2.87 | 44 |
| 2013-08-11 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 5-2 | 1536.55 | 1483.57 | 64.51% | 12.88% | 22.62% | +2.15 | 47 |
| 2013-08-15 | Orlando City SC | W 2-0 | 1538.70 | 1555.52 | 53.38% | 18.85% | 27.77% | +2.65 | 50 |
| 2013-08-18 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1541.35 | 1483.75 | 31.65% | 21.44% | 46.91% | +0.16 | 51 |
| 2013-04-14 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 0-3 | 1505.53 | 1501.20 | 26.74% | 17.87% | 55.39% | -3.68 | 0 |
| 2013-04-15 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-3 | 1501.85 | 1534.11 | 24.03% | 14.73% | 61.25% | -1.91 | 0 |
| 2013-04-20 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 0-0 | 1499.94 | 1509.45 | 25.67% | 16.72% | 57.61% | +0.38 | 1 |
| 2013-04-21 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-4 | 1500.32 | 1508.93 | 25.74% | 16.80% | 57.47% | -2.96 | 1 |
| 2013-04-28 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-5 | 1497.36 | 1508.91 | 25.52% | 16.54% | 57.94% | -3.77 | 1 |
| 2013-05-05 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-1 | 1493.59 | 1510.29 | 53.40% | 18.84% | 27.76% | -2.45 | 1 |
| 2013-05-11 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | W 1-0 | 1491.14 | 1496.95 | 25.95% | 17.03% | 57.02% | +2.56 | 4 |
| 2013-05-19 | Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1493.70 | 1544.21 | 48.02% | 21.07% | 30.91% | -2.27 | 4 |
| 2013-05-26 | @ Charleston Battery | T 0-0 | 1491.43 | 1516.85 | 24.51% | 15.34% | 60.16% | +0.42 | 5 |
| 2013-06-01 | Los Angeles Blues | T 2-2 | 1491.85 | 1505.19 | 53.94% | 18.58% | 27.48% | -0.21 | 6 |
| 2013-06-02 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-3 | 1491.64 | 1476.24 | 27.65% | 18.74% | 53.61% | -3.83 | 6 |
| 2013-06-15 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | W 3-0 | 1487.81 | 1514.85 | 51.74% | 19.59% | 28.66% | +4.00 | 9 |
| 2013-06-16 | Charleston Battery | T 1-1 | 1491.81 | 1513.99 | 52.52% | 19.25% | 28.23% | -0.26 | 10 |
| 2013-06-22 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-1 | 1491.55 | 1433.07 | 65.36% | 12.39% | 22.25% | +0.99 | 13 |
| 2013-06-30 | Phoenix FC | T 0-0 | 1492.54 | 1483.04 | 57.61% | 16.72% | 25.67% | -0.38 | 14 |
| 2013-07-04 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-3 | 1492.16 | 1485.58 | 26.92% | 18.05% | 55.02% | -2.21 | 14 |
| 2013-07-07 | Charlotte Eagles | T 2-2 | 1489.95 | 1506.90 | 53.36% | 18.86% | 27.78% | -0.20 | 15 |
| 2013-07-13 | Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1489.75 | 1532.40 | 49.26% | 20.61% | 30.12% | -0.20 | 16 |
| 2013-07-20 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 0-0 | 1489.55 | 1489.53 | 56.09% | 17.52% | 26.40% | -0.35 | 17 |
| 2013-07-28 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1489.20 | 1417.42 | 67.39% | 11.23% | 21.38% | +0.99 | 20 |
| 2013-08-03 | Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-3 | 1490.19 | 1483.13 | 57.22% | 16.93% | 25.86% | -4.20 | 20 |
| 2013-08-10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 1-0 | 1485.99 | 1486.85 | 55.95% | 17.59% | 26.47% | +1.33 | 23 |
| 2013-08-17 | @ Phoenix FC | W 4-3 | 1487.32 | 1485.10 | 26.57% | 17.70% | 55.73% | +2.21 | 26 |
| 2013-08-18 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1489.53 | 1512.85 | 24.66% | 15.52% | 59.82% | -1.14 | 26 |
| 2013-03-31 | @ Phoenix FC | L 0-1 | 1500.00 | 1497.48 | 26.60% | 17.72% | 55.68% | -1.34 | 0 |
| 2013-04-03 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1498.66 | 1499.63 | 26.32% | 17.44% | 56.24% | +2.54 | 3 |
| 2013-04-14 | Rochester Rhinos | W 3-0 | 1501.20 | 1505.53 | 55.39% | 17.87% | 26.74% | +3.69 | 6 |
| 2013-04-22 | Los Angeles Blues | W 3-2 | 1504.89 | 1501.68 | 56.60% | 17.25% | 26.15% | +1.17 | 9 |
| 2013-04-27 | Dayton Dutch Lions | L 0-1 | 1506.06 | 1481.86 | 59.96% | 15.44% | 24.60% | -2.66 | 9 |
| 2013-05-04 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-1 | 1503.40 | 1461.75 | 62.73% | 13.89% | 23.38% | +1.84 | 12 |
| 2013-05-27 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 1-0 | 1505.24 | 1491.44 | 58.30% | 16.35% | 25.35% | +1.25 | 15 |
| 2013-06-08 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 8-0 | 1506.49 | 1446.65 | 65.57% | 12.27% | 22.16% | +7.17 | 18 |
| 2013-06-10 | Phoenix FC | W 1-0 | 1513.66 | 1485.63 | 60.57% | 15.10% | 24.32% | +1.19 | 21 |
| 2013-06-15 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-3 | 1514.85 | 1487.81 | 28.66% | 19.59% | 51.74% | -4.00 | 21 |
| 2013-06-17 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-2 | 1510.85 | 1481.38 | 28.88% | 19.76% | 51.36% | -1.39 | 21 |
| 2013-06-22 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-1 | 1509.46 | 1502.86 | 26.92% | 18.05% | 55.02% | -1.36 | 21 |
| 2013-06-23 | @ Charleston Battery | T 0-0 | 1508.10 | 1514.25 | 25.93% | 17.00% | 57.07% | +0.37 | 22 |
| 2013-07-01 | Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1508.47 | 1530.04 | 52.62% | 19.20% | 28.18% | -0.29 | 23 |
| 2013-07-14 | Charleston Battery | W 4-2 | 1508.18 | 1512.56 | 55.38% | 17.88% | 26.75% | +1.97 | 26 |
| 2013-07-20 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-2 | 1510.15 | 1519.83 | 54.53% | 18.30% | 27.18% | -4.69 | 26 |
| 2013-07-27 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-1 | 1505.46 | 1488.59 | 27.77% | 18.85% | 53.37% | +2.31 | 29 |
| 2013-07-29 | @ Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1507.77 | 1537.52 | 24.20% | 14.95% | 60.85% | +0.43 | 30 |
| 2013-08-03 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-2 | 1508.20 | 1481.49 | 60.36% | 15.22% | 24.42% | -2.51 | 30 |
| 2013-08-05 | Orlando City SC | L 0-3 | 1505.69 | 1548.23 | 49.28% | 20.61% | 30.11% | -6.34 | 30 |
| 2013-08-07 | @ Orlando City SC | L 2-3 | 1499.35 | 1554.57 | 22.47% | 12.68% | 64.85% | -0.95 | 30 |
| 2013-08-11 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-3 | 1498.40 | 1527.46 | 24.25% | 15.01% | 60.74% | -1.93 | 30 |
| 2013-08-11 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 2-3 | 1496.47 | 1485.52 | 27.28% | 18.40% | 54.32% | -1.23 | 30 |
| 2013-08-17 | Charlotte Eagles | T 3-3 | 1495.24 | 1502.49 | 54.92% | 18.11% | 26.98% | -0.18 | 31 |
| 2013-04-20 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1506.64 | 1467.94 | 62.27% | 14.15% | 23.58% | +2.14 | 3 |
| 2013-04-27 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-4 | 1508.78 | 1500.51 | 27.06% | 18.19% | 54.75% | -4.88 | 3 |
| 2013-04-29 | @ Phoenix FC | L 1-3 | 1503.90 | 1490.84 | 27.45% | 18.56% | 53.98% | -2.27 | 3 |
| 2013-05-04 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1501.63 | 1511.89 | 54.43% | 18.34% | 27.22% | -4.68 | 3 |
| 2013-05-11 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1496.95 | 1491.14 | 57.02% | 17.03% | 25.95% | -2.57 | 3 |
| 2013-05-12 | @ Charleston Battery | L 2-4 | 1494.38 | 1516.43 | 24.75% | 15.63% | 59.62% | -1.77 | 3 |
| 2013-05-19 | Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1492.61 | 1505.30 | 54.04% | 18.53% | 27.42% | +1.31 | 6 |
| 2013-05-26 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-4 | 1493.92 | 1546.48 | 22.64% | 12.91% | 64.44% | -2.48 | 6 |
| 2013-05-27 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 0-1 | 1491.44 | 1505.24 | 25.35% | 16.35% | 58.30% | -1.26 | 6 |
| 2013-06-02 | Phoenix FC | W 2-1 | 1490.18 | 1488.83 | 56.30% | 17.41% | 26.29% | +1.24 | 9 |
| 2013-06-06 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-2 | 1491.42 | 1525.26 | 23.92% | 14.59% | 61.50% | -2.18 | 9 |
| 2013-06-09 | @ Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1489.24 | 1522.04 | 23.99% | 14.68% | 61.33% | +0.39 | 10 |
| 2013-06-23 | Charlotte Eagles | T 0-0 | 1489.63 | 1504.22 | 53.74% | 18.68% | 27.58% | -0.30 | 11 |
| 2013-07-04 | Orlando City SC | T 2-2 | 1489.33 | 1547.45 | 46.83% | 21.46% | 31.71% | -0.12 | 12 |
| 2013-07-07 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1489.21 | 1527.56 | 49.94% | 20.35% | 29.71% | +1.43 | 15 |
| 2013-07-14 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 2-3 | 1490.64 | 1507.10 | 25.15% | 16.12% | 58.72% | -1.11 | 15 |
| 2013-07-20 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 0-0 | 1489.53 | 1489.55 | 26.40% | 17.52% | 56.09% | +0.35 | 16 |
| 2013-07-21 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-2 | 1489.88 | 1480.19 | 27.18% | 18.30% | 54.53% | -1.29 | 16 |
| 2013-07-27 | VSI Tampa Bay FC | L 1-2 | 1488.59 | 1505.46 | 53.37% | 18.85% | 27.77% | -2.31 | 16 |
| 2013-08-03 | Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1486.28 | 1518.98 | 50.84% | 19.98% | 29.18% | +1.41 | 19 |
| 2013-08-05 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1487.69 | 1487.33 | 26.43% | 17.55% | 56.02% | +2.53 | 22 |
| 2013-08-10 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-1 | 1490.22 | 1484.79 | 56.95% | 17.07% | 25.98% | +1.22 | 25 |
| 2013-08-15 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 4-1 | 1491.44 | 1486.75 | 56.84% | 17.13% | 26.04% | +3.00 | 28 |
| 2013-08-18 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-1 | 1494.44 | 1409.95 | 69.29% | 10.15% | 20.56% | +2.17 | 31 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-08-24 | Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1523.83 | 1513.99 | 66.97% | 0.00% | 33.03% | +1.20 | 1-0 |
| 2013-08-30 | @ Orlando City SC | L 2-3 | 1525.03 | 1558.34 | 30.11% | 0.00% | 69.89% | -1.04 | 1-1 |
| 2013-08-24 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 3-1 | 1501.58 | 1526.82 | 31.10% | 0.00% | 68.90% | +4.34 | 1-0 |
| 2013-08-31 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1505.92 | 1542.56 | 29.71% | 0.00% | 70.29% | +2.56 | 2-0 |
| 2013-09-07 | @ Orlando City SC | L 4-7 | 1508.48 | 1559.38 | 28.03% | 0.00% | 71.97% | -1.91 | 2-1 |
| 2013-08-24 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1484.00 | 1541.51 | 27.26% | 0.00% | 72.74% | -1.06 | 0-1 |
| 2013-08-24 | Charlotte Eagles | L 1-3 | 1526.82 | 1501.58 | 68.90% | 0.00% | 31.10% | -4.34 | 0-1 |
| 2013-08-24 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1513.99 | 1523.83 | 33.03% | 0.00% | 66.97% | -1.20 | 0-1 |
| 2013-08-24 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 5-0 | 1553.94 | 1483.60 | 74.18% | 0.00% | 25.82% | +4.40 | 1-0 |
| 2013-08-30 | Charleston Battery | W 3-2 | 1558.34 | 1525.03 | 69.89% | 0.00% | 30.11% | +1.04 | 2-0 |
| 2013-09-07 | Charlotte Eagles | W 7-4 | 1559.38 | 1508.48 | 71.97% | 0.00% | 28.03% | +1.90 | 3-0 |
| 2013-08-24 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-5 | 1483.60 | 1553.94 | 25.82% | 0.00% | 74.18% | -4.40 | 0-1 |
| 2013-08-24 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1541.51 | 1484.00 | 72.74% | 0.00% | 27.26% | +1.05 | 1-0 |
| 2013-08-31 | Charlotte Eagles | L 1-2 | 1542.56 | 1505.92 | 70.29% | 0.00% | 29.71% | -2.56 | 1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2013-08-04 | 21.69% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1484.00 | 1 | @ Orlando City SC | 1551.08 | 0 |
| 2 | 2013-06-22 | 22.88% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1479.86 | 4 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1528.93 | 3 |
| 3 | 2013-08-08 | 23.89% | Charlotte Eagles | 1495.76 | 2 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1530.00 | 1 |
| 4 | 2013-06-30 | 24.36% | Richmond Kickers | 1525.01 | 2 | @ Orlando City SC | 1552.48 | 0 |
| 5 | 2013-08-03 | 24.42% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1481.49 | 2 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | 1508.20 | 1 |
| 6 | 2013-07-28 | 24.48% | Phoenix FC | 1481.80 | 4 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1507.61 | 0 |
| 7 | 2013-04-27 | 24.60% | Dayton Dutch Lions | 1481.86 | 1 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | 1506.06 | 0 |
| 8 | 2013-06-24 | 24.71% | Dayton Dutch Lions | 1483.13 | 1 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1505.67 | 0 |
| 9 | 2013-07-11 | 25.21% | Los Angeles Blues | 1510.44 | 4 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1526.13 | 2 |
| 10 | 2013-08-03 | 25.86% | Dayton Dutch Lions | 1483.13 | 3 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 1490.19 | 1 |
| 11 | 2013-05-11 | 25.95% | Rochester Rhinos | 1491.14 | 1 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 1496.95 | 0 |
| 12 | 2013-06-01 | 26.20% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1513.88 | 2 | @ Charleston Battery | 1516.43 | 1 |
| 13 | 2013-04-03 | 26.32% | VSI Tampa Bay FC | 1498.66 | 1 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1499.63 | 0 |
| 14 | 2013-05-02 | 26.32% | Charleston Battery | 1511.67 | 2 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1512.69 | 1 |
| 15 | 2013-08-05 | 26.43% | Wilmington Hammerheads | 1487.69 | 1 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | 1487.33 | 0 |
| 16 | 2013-08-17 | 26.57% | Rochester Rhinos | 1487.32 | 4 | @ Phoenix FC | 1485.10 | 3 |
| 17 | 2013-04-15 | 26.69% | Los Angeles Blues | 1498.61 | 3 | @ Phoenix FC | 1494.95 | 1 |
| 18 | 2013-06-02 | 26.77% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1516.28 | 4 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1511.59 | 0 |
| 19 | 2013-07-20 | 27.18% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1519.83 | 2 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | 1510.15 | 0 |
| 20 | 2013-05-04 | 27.22% | Richmond Kickers | 1511.89 | 2 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 1501.63 | 0 |
| 21 | 2013-07-14 | 27.22% | Richmond Kickers | 1532.60 | 1 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1522.31 | 0 |
| 22 | 2013-05-05 | 27.76% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1510.29 | 1 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 1493.59 | 0 |
| 23 | 2013-07-27 | 27.77% | VSI Tampa Bay FC | 1505.46 | 2 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 1488.59 | 1 |
| 24 | 2013-07-22 | 27.85% | Richmond Kickers | 1535.22 | 2 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1517.51 | 1 |
| 25 | 2013-07-05 | 28.04% | Charlotte Eagles | 1504.72 | 3 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1484.78 | 2 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2013-07-28 | 9.52 | Phoenix FC | 4 | 1481.80 | 24.48% | @ Charlotte Eagles | 0 | 1507.61 | 60.22% | 15.30% |
| 2 | 2013-06-02 | 8.98 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 4 | 1516.28 | 26.77% | @ Charlotte Eagles | 0 | 1511.59 | 55.33% | 17.90% |
| 3 | 2013-06-08 | 7.17 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | 8 | 1506.49 | 65.57% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1446.65 | 22.16% | 12.27% |
| 4 | 2013-08-05 | 6.34 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1548.23 | 30.11% | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | 0 | 1505.69 | 49.28% | 20.61% |
| 5 | 2013-07-05 | 5.15 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 6 | 1503.03 | 67.64% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1429.58 | 21.27% | 11.08% |
| 6 | 2013-06-30 | 5.03 | Richmond Kickers | 2 | 1525.01 | 24.36% | @ Orlando City SC | 0 | 1552.48 | 60.48% | 15.15% |
| 7 | 2013-04-27 | 4.89 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 4 | 1500.51 | 54.75% | Wilmington Hammerheads | 0 | 1508.78 | 27.06% | 18.19% |
| 8 | 2013-07-20 | 4.69 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 2 | 1519.83 | 27.18% | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | 0 | 1510.15 | 54.53% | 18.30% |
| 9 | 2013-05-04 | 4.68 | Richmond Kickers | 2 | 1511.89 | 27.22% | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 0 | 1501.63 | 54.43% | 18.34% |
| 10 | 2013-08-24 * | 4.40 | @ Orlando City SC | 5 | 1553.94 | 74.18% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1483.60 | 25.82% | 0.00% |
| 11 | 2013-08-24 * | 4.34 | Charlotte Eagles | 3 | 1501.58 | 31.10% | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1 | 1526.82 | 68.90% | 0.00% |
| 12 | 2013-08-03 | 4.20 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 3 | 1483.13 | 25.86% | @ Rochester Rhinos | 1 | 1490.19 | 57.22% | 16.93% |
| 13 | 2013-08-11 | 4.19 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 5 | 1498.30 | 68.90% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1416.43 | 20.73% | 10.36% |
| 14 | 2013-04-15 | 4.11 | Los Angeles Blues | 3 | 1498.61 | 26.69% | @ Phoenix FC | 1 | 1494.95 | 55.49% | 17.82% |
| 15 | 2013-04-21 | 4.05 | @ Charleston Battery | 4 | 1505.45 | 62.42% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1465.80 | 23.52% | 14.07% |
| 16 | 2013-06-15 | 4.00 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 3 | 1487.81 | 51.74% | VSI Tampa Bay FC | 0 | 1514.85 | 28.66% | 19.59% |
| 17 | 2013-04-08 | 3.86 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1531.77 | 29.20% | @ Phoenix FC | 1 | 1498.81 | 50.80% | 20.00% |
| 18 | 2013-08-01 | 3.85 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 3 | 1525.96 | 29.36% | @ Phoenix FC | 1 | 1491.32 | 50.53% | 20.11% |
| 19 | 2013-04-28 | 3.84 | @ Orlando City SC | 4 | 1537.29 | 64.47% | Dayton Dutch Lions | 0 | 1484.52 | 22.63% | 12.90% |
| 20 | 2013-06-02 | 3.84 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 3 | 1476.24 | 53.61% | Rochester Rhinos | 0 | 1491.64 | 27.65% | 18.74% |
| 21 | 2013-07-11 | 3.82 | Los Angeles Blues | 4 | 1510.44 | 25.21% | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 2 | 1526.13 | 58.60% | 16.19% |
| 22 | 2013-05-11 | 3.79 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 4 | 1512.74 | 64.93% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1457.01 | 22.43% | 12.63% |
| 23 | 2013-04-28 | 3.78 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 5 | 1508.91 | 57.94% | Rochester Rhinos | 1 | 1497.36 | 25.52% | 16.54% |
| 24 | 2013-04-14 | 3.69 | @ VSI Tampa Bay FC | 3 | 1501.20 | 55.39% | Rochester Rhinos | 0 | 1505.53 | 26.74% | 17.87% |
| 25 | 2013-07-28 | 3.62 | @ Charleston Battery | 3 | 1515.36 | 56.08% | Los Angeles Blues | 0 | 1515.38 | 26.40% | 17.52% |