2012 USL Season

132 regular-season games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

Orlando City SC

20.00% chance to win USL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

Orlando City SC

19.98 points above expected

57 points · 37.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

14.53 points below expected

17 points · 31.53 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Orlando City SC	17	1	6	57	.792	50	18	+32	37.02	+19.98
2	Rochester Rhinos	12	7	5	41	.569	27	23	+4	35.11	+5.89
3	Richmond Kickers	11	8	5	38	.528	31	27	+4	34.63	+3.37
4	Charleston Battery	12	10	2	38	.528	36	26	+10	34.11	+3.89
5	Wilmington Hammerheads	10	7	7	37	.514	34	32	+2	33.59	+3.41
6	Harrisburg City Islanders	10	7	7	37	.514	34	29	+5	34.07	+2.93
7	Charlotte Eagles	11	10	3	36	.500	34	26	+8	33.27	+2.73
8	Los Angeles Blues	9	12	3	30	.417	26	29	-3	33.47	-3.47
9	Dayton Dutch Lions	4	10	10	22	.306	20	29	-9	29.93	-7.93
10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	4	15	5	17	.236	20	39	-19	31.53	-14.53
11	Antigua Barracuda FC	5	18	1	16	.222	16	50	-34	30.34	-14.34

Playoff Bracket

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Orlando City SC	1557	57	37.02	+19.98	99.93%	13	26	33	37	41	48	61
Richmond Kickers	1512	38	34.63	+3.37	71.80%	11	24	30	35	39	45	57
Harrisburg City Islanders	1512	37	34.07	+2.93	69.85%	11	23	30	34	39	45	62
Charleston Battery	1511	38	34.11	+3.89	75.48%	10	24	30	34	38	45	61
Charlotte Eagles	1511	36	33.27	+2.73	69.34%	8	23	29	33	38	44	55
Rochester Rhinos	1510	41	35.11	+5.89	83.46%	13	24	31	35	40	46	58
Wilmington Hammerheads	1509	37	33.59	+3.41	72.70%	9	23	29	34	38	44	56
Los Angeles Blues	1495	30	33.47	-3.47	32.85%	11	23	29	33	38	44	57
Dayton Dutch Lions	1467	22	29.93	-7.93	12.62%	7	20	26	30	34	41	58
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1464	17	31.53	-14.53	1.21%	9	21	27	32	36	42	54
Antigua Barracuda FC	1451	16	30.34	-14.34	1.18%	10	20	26	30	35	41	57

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FC	Battery	Eagles	Lions	Islanders	Blues	SC	Riverhounds	Kickers	Rhinos	Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC	—	3 (5.0 exp.)	3 (4.2 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	1 (1.0 exp.)	3 (5.0 exp.)	0 (3.8 exp.)	3 (4.3 exp.)	3 (3.7 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)
Charleston Battery	9 (6.1 exp.)	—	3 (4.1 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	0 (3.6 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	4 (4.4 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles	6 (4.2 exp.)	6 (4.2 exp.)	—	2 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	6 (3.0 exp.)	6 (5.4 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	4 (3.9 exp.)
Dayton Dutch Lions	3 (1.6 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	2 (2.5 exp.)	—	4 (3.5 exp.)	0 (3.6 exp.)	2 (2.2 exp.)	4 (4.2 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	2 (4.9 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders	1 (1.8 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	4 (4.8 exp.)	—	7 (4.1 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	7 (4.3 exp.)	2 (4.0 exp.)	9 (4.3 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Blues	9 (6.1 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	9 (4.8 exp.)	1 (4.2 exp.)	—	1 (3.9 exp.)	6 (2.5 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	0 (4.2 exp.)	4 (4.2 exp.)
Orlando City SC	9 (4.6 exp.)	9 (4.7 exp.)	6 (3.0 exp.)	2 (3.4 exp.)	6 (3.0 exp.)	7 (4.4 exp.)	—	4 (3.1 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	6 (3.0 exp.)	4 (4.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	6 (4.0 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	4 (4.1 exp.)	1 (4.1 exp.)	0 (3.1 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	—	1 (2.6 exp.)	1 (3.5 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)
Richmond Kickers	6 (4.7 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	6 (5.7 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)	5 (4.4 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	—	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (3.9 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos	3 (1.8 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	8 (6.3 exp.)	0 (4.1 exp.)	9 (4.1 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	7 (4.9 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	—	2 (2.8 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads	3 (1.7 exp.)	4 (3.9 exp.)	4 (4.4 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	4 (2.7 exp.)	4 (4.1 exp.)	4 (3.6 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	6 (4.4 exp.)	2 (2.7 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.30%	11.74%	7.20%	3.03%	3.03%	—	30.30%
1	11.74%	9.85%	7.58%	3.03%	1.52%	—	33.71%
2	7.20%	7.58%	5.30%	1.89%	0.76%	—	22.73%
3	3.03%	3.03%	1.89%	—	—	—	7.95%
4	3.03%	1.52%	0.76%	—	—	—	5.30%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.30%	33.71%	22.73%	7.95%	5.30%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.24	1.24	+0.00
SD	1.13	1.13	1.76
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	20.83%	12.50%	8.33%	—	58.33%
1	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	—	25.00%
2	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	4.17%	33.33%	29.17%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Antigua Barracuda FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.67	2.08	-1.42
SD	0.96	1.18	1.69
CV	1.44	0.56	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	29.17%
1	12.50%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	29.17%
2	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	8.33%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	20.83%
4	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	29.17%	25.00%	4.17%	4.17%	—	100%

Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.08	+0.42
SD	1.35	1.10	2.10
CV	0.90	1.02	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
1	12.50%	4.17%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	25.00%	29.17%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Charlotte Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.08	+0.33
SD	1.21	1.02	1.74
CV	0.86	0.94	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	20.83%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	54.17%
1	4.17%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	20.83%
2	—	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
4	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.83%	45.83%	29.17%	—	4.17%	—	100%

Dayton Dutch Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.21	-0.38
SD	1.13	0.93	1.56
CV	1.36	0.77	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	20.83%
1	8.33%	8.33%	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	33.33%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	20.83%	29.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	100%

Harrisburg City Islanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.21	+0.21
SD	1.06	1.18	1.64
CV	0.75	0.98	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	37.50%
1	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	—	29.17%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	20.83%	4.17%	8.33%	—	100%

Los Angeles Blues — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.21	-0.12
SD	1.02	1.22	1.70
CV	0.94	1.01	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
1	12.50%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	—	33.33%
2	12.50%	16.67%	4.17%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	20.83%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.83%	37.50%	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	100%

Orlando City SC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	0.75	+1.33
SD	1.21	0.85	1.49
CV	0.58	1.13	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	45.83%
1	4.17%	16.67%	—	12.50%	—	—	33.33%
2	4.17%	4.17%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	41.67%	16.67%	29.17%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.62	-0.79
SD	1.01	1.06	1.50
CV	1.21	0.65	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	12.50%	12.50%	—	4.17%	—	45.83%
2	8.33%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	29.17%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	29.17%	41.67%	20.83%	4.17%	4.17%	—	100%

Richmond Kickers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.29	1.12	+0.17
SD	0.86	1.03	1.34
CV	0.66	0.92	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
1	29.17%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	—	50.00%
2	12.50%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
4	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.83%	29.17%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Rochester Rhinos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	0.96	+0.17
SD	0.99	1.20	1.69
CV	0.88	1.25	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
1	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	8.33%	4.17%	—	41.67%
2	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	—	29.17%
3	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	29.17%	33.33%	20.83%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Wilmington Hammerheads — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.33	+0.08
SD	1.02	1.24	1.69
CV	0.72	0.93	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

Points Points vs. Goal Differential

Plot of points against goals differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Orlando City SC	57	37.02	+19.98
2	Rochester Rhinos	41	35.11	+5.89
3	Charleston Battery	38	34.11	+3.89
4	Wilmington Hammerheads	37	33.59	+3.41
5	Richmond Kickers	38	34.63	+3.37

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	17	31.53	-14.53
2	Antigua Barracuda FC	16	30.34	-14.34
3	Dayton Dutch Lions	22	29.93	-7.93
4	Los Angeles Blues	30	33.47	-3.47
5	Charlotte Eagles	36	33.27	+2.73

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rochester Rhinos	6	Apr 14 – May 12	1 in 475
2	Charlotte Eagles	6	Jun 16 – Jul 27	1 in 185
3	Orlando City SC	4	Jul 6 – Jul 19	1 in 42
4	Richmond Kickers	4	Jul 28 – Aug 17	1 in 22
5	Charleston Battery	3	Apr 17 – May 4	1 in 14

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Antigua Barracuda FC	8	Apr 28 – Jun 29	1 in 919
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	6	Jul 4 – Jul 21	1 in 147
3	Los Angeles Blues	5	Jun 28 – Jul 8	1 in 77
4	Charlotte Eagles	3	Apr 17 – Apr 26	1 in 21
5	Charleston Battery	3	Jul 1 – Jul 7	1 in 20

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Orlando City SC	14	Jun 9 – Aug 17	1 in 320
2	Richmond Kickers	8	Apr 28 – Jun 9	1 in 63
3	Rochester Rhinos	7	Apr 14 – May 18	1 in 33
4	Los Angeles Blues	5	May 4 – May 24	1 in 14
5	Charlotte Eagles	6	Jun 16 – Jul 27	1 in 14

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dayton Dutch Lions	12	Apr 13 – Jun 17	1 in 175
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	9	Apr 27 – Jun 17	1 in 57
3	Rochester Rhinos	7	May 18 – Jun 17	1 in 42
4	Antigua Barracuda FC	8	Apr 28 – Jun 29	1 in 32
5	Charlotte Eagles	5	Apr 7 – Apr 26	1 in 17

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Orlando City SC	20.17%	15.07%	11.98%	10.14%	8.98%	8.11%	7.13%	6.06%	5.16%	4.29%	2.91%
Rochester Rhinos	12.66%	12.26%	10.45%	10.84%	9.77%	9.14%	8.26%	7.68%	7.31%	6.59%	5.04%
Richmond Kickers	10.96%	11.37%	11.22%	9.85%	9.54%	9.24%	8.63%	8.50%	8.00%	6.84%	5.85%
Harrisburg City Islanders	9.86%	10.35%	10.13%	10.09%	9.48%	8.91%	9.36%	8.41%	8.75%	7.72%	6.94%
Charleston Battery	9.98%	9.75%	9.95%	9.82%	9.81%	9.30%	9.66%	9.08%	8.47%	7.52%	6.66%
Wilmington Hammerheads	8.28%	9.15%	10.25%	9.14%	10.38%	8.80%	9.77%	9.45%	8.74%	8.51%	7.53%
Los Angeles Blues	8.53%	8.58%	9.42%	9.48%	9.21%	9.90%	9.51%	9.21%	8.96%	9.02%	8.18%
Charlotte Eagles	8.29%	8.54%	8.96%	9.05%	9.46%	10.24%	9.00%	9.89%	9.25%	8.70%	8.62%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	5.03%	5.75%	6.47%	8.31%	8.63%	9.48%	9.93%	10.55%	11.05%	12.00%	12.80%
Antigua Barracuda FC	3.28%	4.91%	5.75%	6.75%	7.62%	8.63%	9.33%	10.41%	12.35%	14.26%	16.71%
Dayton Dutch Lions	2.96%	4.27%	5.42%	6.53%	7.12%	8.25%	9.42%	10.76%	11.96%	14.55%	18.76%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Orlando City SC	20.17%	15.07%	11.98%	10.14%	8.98%	8.11%	25.55%
Rochester Rhinos	12.66%	12.26%	10.45%	10.84%	9.77%	9.14%	34.88%
Richmond Kickers	10.96%	11.37%	11.22%	9.85%	9.54%	9.24%	37.82%
Charleston Battery	9.98%	9.75%	9.95%	9.82%	9.81%	9.30%	41.39%
Harrisburg City Islanders	9.86%	10.35%	10.13%	10.09%	9.48%	8.91%	41.18%
Los Angeles Blues	8.53%	8.58%	9.42%	9.48%	9.21%	9.90%	44.88%
Charlotte Eagles	8.29%	8.54%	8.96%	9.05%	9.46%	10.24%	45.46%
Wilmington Hammerheads	8.28%	9.15%	10.25%	9.14%	10.38%	8.80%	44.00%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	5.03%	5.75%	6.47%	8.31%	8.63%	9.48%	56.33%
Antigua Barracuda FC	3.28%	4.91%	5.75%	6.75%	7.62%	8.63%	63.06%
Dayton Dutch Lions	2.96%	4.27%	5.42%	6.53%	7.12%	8.25%	65.45%

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC	57.56%	57.56%	34.29%	20.00%
Rochester Rhinos	45.69%	45.69%	23.84%	12.12%
Richmond Kickers	43.25%	43.25%	21.99%	11.12%
Harrisburg City Islanders	40.21%	40.21%	20.24%	9.98%
Charleston Battery	39.78%	39.78%	20.07%	9.56%
Wilmington Hammerheads	38.57%	37.14%	18.03%	9.43%
Charlotte Eagles	37.71%	35.82%	17.88%	8.76%
Los Angeles Blues	38.01%	35.84%	16.72%	7.89%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	32.89%	25.44%	10.66%	4.49%
Dayton Dutch Lions	27.32%	19.03%	8.21%	3.47%
Antigua Barracuda FC	28.75%	20.24%	8.07%	3.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		1.27%	1.30%	1.20%	1.29%	1.20%	1.20%	1.12%	1.21%	1.29%	0.97%
Charleston Battery	1.54%		2.03%	1.56%	1.94%	2.24%	1.98%	2.01%	2.22%	2.19%	2.34%
Charlotte Eagles	1.69%	2.17%		1.51%	2.01%	1.91%	1.81%	1.72%	2.06%	2.20%	1.91%
Dayton Dutch Lions	1.16%	1.32%	1.14%		1.22%	1.15%	1.00%	1.12%	1.17%	1.30%	1.22%
Harrisburg City Islanders	1.82%	2.14%	2.03%	1.53%		2.28%	1.95%	1.93%	2.31%	2.10%	1.91%
Los Angeles Blues	1.52%	1.96%	2.07%	1.53%	1.83%		1.65%	1.78%	2.07%	2.21%	2.11%
Orlando City SC	2.06%	2.13%	2.26%	2.17%	2.27%	2.42%		2.38%	2.23%	2.26%	2.14%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1.15%	1.51%	1.49%	0.95%	1.59%	1.60%	1.65%		1.73%	1.50%	1.49%
Richmond Kickers	2.12%	1.83%	2.47%	1.69%	2.20%	2.17%	1.77%	1.88%		2.21%	2.58%
Rochester Rhinos	2.04%	2.37%	2.02%	1.77%	2.27%	2.26%	1.82%	2.04%	1.99%		2.19%
Wilmington Hammerheads	1.60%	2.13%	1.91%	1.61%	1.99%	2.05%	2.06%	2.25%	1.94%	2.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		0.91%	0.69%	0.36%	0.90%	0.72%	1.26%	0.55%	0.90%	0.95%	0.83%
Charleston Battery	1.00%		2.05%	1.12%	2.45%	2.24%	2.80%	1.63%	2.49%	2.23%	2.06%
Charlotte Eagles	1.08%	1.86%		1.00%	1.79%	1.97%	2.69%	1.43%	1.95%	2.26%	1.85%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.56%	0.79%	0.72%		0.75%	0.75%	1.10%	0.64%	0.95%	1.12%	0.83%
Harrisburg City Islanders	1.45%	2.19%	2.08%	0.99%		2.19%	2.94%	1.30%	2.40%	2.58%	2.12%
Los Angeles Blues	0.88%	1.83%	1.53%	1.03%	1.96%		2.49%	1.35%	1.88%	1.89%	1.88%
Orlando City SC	2.40%	3.83%	3.62%	2.14%	3.95%	3.46%		2.54%	4.27%	4.22%	3.86%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.72%	1.05%	1.10%	0.56%	1.15%	1.17%	1.34%		1.30%	1.39%	0.88%
Richmond Kickers	1.39%	2.55%	1.97%	1.44%	2.24%	2.33%	3.19%	1.91%		2.82%	2.15%
Rochester Rhinos	1.64%	2.51%	2.25%	1.21%	2.80%	2.58%	3.17%	2.08%	2.95%		2.65%
Wilmington Hammerheads	1.05%	2.19%	1.93%	0.97%	1.98%	1.71%	2.29%	1.35%	2.17%	2.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		0.36%	0.31%	0.20%	0.34%	0.24%	0.52%	0.18%	0.36%	0.40%	0.27%
Charleston Battery	0.45%		1.10%	0.42%	1.09%	0.88%	1.67%	0.64%	1.23%	1.24%	0.84%
Charlotte Eagles	0.35%	1.06%		0.42%	1.01%	0.91%	1.58%	0.54%	0.89%	1.19%	0.81%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.11%	0.31%	0.48%		0.32%	0.37%	0.51%	0.22%	0.31%	0.40%	0.44%
Harrisburg City Islanders	0.71%	1.03%	1.06%	0.54%		0.94%	1.69%	0.52%	1.22%	1.32%	0.95%
Los Angeles Blues	0.33%	1.04%	0.79%	0.27%	0.71%		1.55%	0.45%	1.17%	0.87%	0.71%
Orlando City SC	1.03%	2.29%	1.88%	1.09%	2.56%	1.86%		1.51%	2.88%	2.93%	1.97%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.20%	0.54%	0.40%	0.22%	0.44%	0.41%	0.75%		0.47%	0.70%	0.36%
Richmond Kickers	0.56%	1.36%	0.98%	0.47%	1.34%	1.16%	2.21%	0.59%		1.38%	1.07%
Rochester Rhinos	0.63%	1.58%	1.15%	0.56%	1.33%	1.21%	2.23%	0.86%	1.39%		1.18%
Wilmington Hammerheads	0.52%	0.94%	0.97%	0.55%	1.12%	0.85%	1.58%	0.66%	0.95%	1.29%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC	100.00%	62.83%	39.84%
Rochester Rhinos	100.00%	56.86%	24.71%
Richmond Kickers	58.15%	21.53%	10.44%
Charleston Battery	56.99%	24.67%	10.38%
Harrisburg City Islanders	43.01%	18.47%	7.69%
Wilmington Hammerheads	41.85%	15.64%	6.94%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Harrisburg City Islanders	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery		56.99%
Harrisburg City Islanders	43.01%
Richmond Kickers				58.15%
Wilmington Hammerheads			41.85%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Harrisburg City Islanders	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery					24.67%
Harrisburg City Islanders					18.47%
Orlando City SC				36.62%		26.21%
Richmond Kickers			21.53%
Rochester Rhinos	32.32%	24.54%
Wilmington Hammerheads			15.64%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Harrisburg City Islanders	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery			5.80%	2.50%		2.08%
Harrisburg City Islanders			4.64%	1.60%		1.45%
Orlando City SC	9.99%	7.18%			22.67%
Richmond Kickers	2.65%	2.28%			5.51%
Rochester Rhinos			12.55%	6.99%		5.17%
Wilmington Hammerheads	1.65%	1.32%			3.97%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Orlando City SC 39.84% chance to win

Conference Finals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

58.28%

Win Prob

62.98%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

56.90%

Win Prob

64.37%

Rochester Rhinos 24.71% chance to win

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

56.84%

Win Prob

56.71%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

50.79%

Win Prob

35.63%

Richmond Kickers 10.44% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.15%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.02%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

52.78%

Win Prob

44.08%

Charleston Battery 10.38% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.99%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.29%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

55.88%

Win Prob

36.73%

Harrisburg City Islanders 7.69% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.01%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.94%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

60.34%

Win Prob

39.26%

Wilmington Hammerheads 6.94% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.85%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.37%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

57.20%

Win Prob

43.44%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2012-04-06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1491.87	1490.59	45.97%	22.32%	31.70%	-1.80	0
2012-04-08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1490.07	1492.39	45.38%	22.55%	32.07%	+2.21	3
2012-04-26	Charlotte Eagles	W 3-2	1492.28	1492.07	45.80%	22.39%	31.81%	+1.21	6
2012-04-28	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1493.49	1490.86	46.19%	22.23%	31.57%	-3.42	6
2012-05-02	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-3	1490.07	1504.46	30.46%	21.38%	48.16%	-3.52	6
2012-05-04	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-4	1486.55	1503.90	30.20%	21.14%	48.66%	-4.54	6
2012-05-11	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1482.01	1527.79	38.63%	24.06%	37.31%	-1.60	6
2012-05-13	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1480.41	1529.38	38.16%	24.07%	37.76%	-1.49	6
2012-06-15	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-3	1478.92	1511.17	28.95%	19.84%	51.21%	-3.30	6
2012-06-17	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1475.62	1530.60	27.26%	17.58%	55.16%	-2.10	6
2012-06-29	Charleston Battery	L 0-2	1473.52	1516.61	39.02%	24.04%	36.94%	-3.03	6
2012-07-01	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1470.49	1519.64	38.14%	24.08%	37.79%	+1.57	9
2012-07-04	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 1-4	1472.06	1512.67	28.30%	19.04%	52.65%	-2.70	9
2012-07-07	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1469.36	1506.78	28.55%	19.35%	52.10%	+0.20	10
2012-07-12	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-3	1469.56	1489.98	42.48%	23.47%	34.05%	-4.68	10
2012-07-14	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-2	1464.88	1494.66	41.02%	23.79%	35.19%	-3.14	10
2012-07-27	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-4	1461.74	1470.22	31.01%	21.83%	47.17%	-3.03	10
2012-07-29	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-3	1458.71	1464.21	31.29%	22.04%	46.67%	-2.16	10
2012-08-03	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1456.55	1508.75	27.46%	17.87%	54.68%	-2.12	10
2012-08-04	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-4	1454.43	1502.82	27.73%	18.26%	54.01%	-4.07	10
2012-08-09	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1450.36	1497.31	27.83%	18.41%	53.76%	+1.89	13
2012-08-11	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1452.25	1495.42	28.11%	18.79%	53.10%	-1.16	13
2012-08-17	Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1451.09	1512.15	36.47%	24.00%	39.53%	-1.52	13
2012-08-19	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1449.57	1513.67	36.07%	23.95%	39.98%	+1.54	16
2012-04-07	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1497.58	1508.52	30.78%	21.64%	47.58%	+1.74	3
2012-04-14	Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1499.32	1506.78	44.54%	22.85%	32.60%	-1.66	3
2012-04-17	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 3-0	1497.66	1498.66	31.73%	22.34%	45.93%	+4.94	6
2012-04-27	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1502.60	1492.60	47.42%	21.71%	30.86%	+1.30	9
2012-05-04	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1503.90	1486.55	48.66%	21.14%	30.20%	+4.55	12
2012-05-12	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1508.45	1515.89	44.55%	22.85%	32.60%	-1.77	12
2012-05-26	Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1506.68	1500.81	46.73%	22.01%	31.26%	+1.32	15
2012-05-31	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1508.00	1484.21	34.45%	23.60%	41.95%	+2.77	18
2012-06-02	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1510.77	1466.17	37.15%	24.05%	38.80%	+1.60	21
2012-06-09	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1512.37	1529.40	30.23%	21.17%	48.61%	-1.20	21
2012-06-15	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-0	1511.17	1478.92	51.21%	19.84%	28.95%	+3.30	24
2012-06-23	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1514.47	1505.66	47.22%	21.80%	30.97%	+2.14	27
2012-06-29	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1516.61	1473.52	36.94%	24.04%	39.02%	+3.03	30
2012-07-01	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 0-1	1519.64	1470.49	37.79%	24.08%	38.14%	-1.57	30
2012-07-06	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1518.07	1495.35	49.57%	20.69%	29.73%	-3.58	30
2012-07-07	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1514.49	1498.93	33.49%	23.26%	43.24%	-1.42	30
2012-07-14	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-1	1513.07	1507.78	46.64%	22.05%	31.31%	+2.16	33
2012-07-19	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1515.23	1547.87	40.59%	23.86%	35.55%	-1.56	33
2012-07-27	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1513.67	1549.22	28.69%	19.53%	51.78%	-4.26	33
2012-08-03	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 2-2	1509.41	1508.07	45.98%	22.32%	31.70%	-0.09	34
2012-08-04	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1509.32	1508.16	31.95%	22.48%	45.57%	-1.28	34
2012-08-08	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-3	1508.04	1508.16	31.82%	22.40%	45.78%	-3.69	34
2012-08-11	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 4-0	1504.35	1515.08	30.80%	21.66%	47.54%	+6.62	37
2012-08-18	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1510.97	1466.67	53.30%	18.68%	28.03%	-0.25	38
2012-04-07	Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1502.11	1517.42	43.28%	23.25%	33.46%	-3.26	0
2012-04-13	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1498.85	1475.83	49.62%	20.67%	29.71%	-0.19	1
2012-04-17	Charleston Battery	L 0-3	1498.66	1497.66	45.93%	22.34%	31.73%	-4.94	1
2012-04-20	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1493.72	1505.76	43.81%	23.09%	33.10%	-1.65	1
2012-04-26	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 2-3	1492.07	1492.28	31.81%	22.39%	45.80%	-1.21	1
2012-04-28	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1490.86	1493.49	31.57%	22.23%	46.19%	+3.42	4
2012-05-04	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1494.28	1507.52	30.57%	21.47%	47.97%	+1.75	7
2012-05-05	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1496.03	1512.90	30.24%	21.18%	48.58%	-1.27	7
2012-05-11	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1494.76	1514.17	42.63%	23.43%	33.93%	-1.71	7
2012-05-19	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1493.05	1506.71	30.53%	21.44%	48.04%	+0.15	8
2012-05-26	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1493.20	1530.69	28.54%	19.35%	52.11%	-1.12	8
2012-06-09	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1492.08	1509.55	30.19%	21.13%	48.68%	-1.27	8
2012-06-16	Richmond Kickers	W 4-1	1490.81	1509.55	42.74%	23.40%	33.86%	+3.30	11
2012-06-28	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-2	1494.11	1501.87	44.50%	22.87%	32.64%	+1.24	14
2012-07-06	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-0	1495.35	1518.07	29.73%	20.69%	49.57%	+3.58	17
2012-07-07	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1498.93	1514.49	43.24%	23.26%	33.49%	+1.42	20
2012-07-14	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1500.35	1477.93	49.52%	20.72%	29.76%	+2.35	23
2012-07-27	Richmond Kickers	W 1-0	1502.70	1508.87	44.75%	22.78%	32.47%	+1.38	26
2012-07-28	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1504.08	1507.50	31.49%	22.18%	46.33%	-1.26	26
2012-08-04	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1502.82	1454.43	54.01%	18.26%	27.73%	+4.07	29
2012-08-10	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1506.89	1470.03	36.10%	23.95%	39.95%	+4.48	32
2012-08-11	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1511.37	1466.37	37.20%	24.06%	38.74%	+0.01	33
2012-08-18	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1511.38	1509.43	32.03%	22.53%	45.44%	+1.79	36
2012-08-19	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1513.17	1507.64	46.68%	22.04%	31.29%	-1.72	36
2012-04-13	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1475.83	1498.85	29.71%	20.67%	49.62%	+0.19	1
2012-04-21	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1476.02	1490.18	30.48%	21.40%	48.12%	-2.43	1
2012-04-28	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1473.59	1511.27	39.83%	23.97%	36.21%	-1.63	1
2012-05-05	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1471.96	1505.36	40.47%	23.88%	35.65%	-0.04	2
2012-05-11	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1471.92	1494.08	42.20%	23.54%	34.26%	-1.70	2
2012-05-18	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1470.22	1517.65	27.80%	18.36%	53.84%	+0.22	3
2012-05-19	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-4	1470.44	1505.67	28.72%	19.56%	51.72%	-4.27	3
2012-05-26	Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1466.17	1516.05	38.03%	24.08%	37.89%	+0.00	4
2012-06-02	Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1466.17	1510.77	38.80%	24.05%	37.15%	-1.60	4
2012-06-09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1464.57	1481.44	43.04%	23.32%	33.64%	-0.08	5
2012-06-15	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1464.49	1499.49	28.73%	19.58%	51.68%	-1.19	5
2012-06-17	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1463.30	1500.69	28.55%	19.36%	52.10%	-1.19	5
2012-06-23	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-0	1462.11	1510.19	38.29%	24.07%	37.64%	+5.60	8
2012-06-29	Orlando City SC	T 2-2	1467.71	1536.10	35.51%	23.86%	40.63%	+0.03	9
2012-07-04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1467.74	1482.88	43.31%	23.24%	33.45%	+1.41	12
2012-07-07	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1469.15	1515.37	27.89%	18.48%	53.63%	-2.16	12
2012-07-13	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1466.99	1506.58	28.38%	19.14%	52.48%	+0.23	13
2012-07-18	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1467.22	1506.35	39.61%	23.99%	36.40%	+1.44	16
2012-07-20	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-2	1468.66	1505.62	28.58%	19.40%	52.02%	-2.24	16
2012-07-21	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1466.42	1506.66	28.33%	19.08%	52.59%	-2.21	16
2012-07-29	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1464.21	1458.71	46.67%	22.04%	31.29%	+2.16	19
2012-08-11	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1466.37	1511.37	38.74%	24.06%	37.20%	-0.01	20
2012-08-17	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1466.36	1557.46	24.89%	13.65%	61.46%	+0.31	21
2012-08-18	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1466.67	1510.97	28.03%	18.68%	53.30%	+0.25	22
2012-04-20	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1505.76	1493.72	33.10%	23.09%	43.81%	+1.64	3
2012-04-21	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1507.40	1503.29	32.25%	22.66%	45.09%	+0.12	4
2012-05-04	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1507.52	1494.28	47.97%	21.47%	30.57%	-1.75	4
2012-05-12	@ Richmond Kickers	T 2-2	1505.77	1505.40	31.87%	22.43%	45.70%	+0.09	5
2012-05-16	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1505.86	1484.09	49.41%	20.78%	29.81%	-0.19	6
2012-05-19	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 4-0	1505.67	1470.44	51.72%	19.56%	28.72%	+4.27	9
2012-05-25	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1509.94	1517.43	44.54%	22.85%	32.61%	+1.38	12
2012-06-01	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1511.32	1507.59	46.38%	22.16%	31.46%	-0.12	13
2012-06-09	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-2	1511.20	1506.89	46.47%	22.12%	31.41%	-3.43	13
2012-06-15	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1507.77	1514.08	44.73%	22.79%	32.48%	+1.29	16
2012-06-22	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-3	1509.06	1532.70	29.66%	20.62%	49.73%	-3.40	16
2012-06-23	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1505.66	1514.47	30.97%	21.80%	47.22%	-2.14	16
2012-06-30	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1503.52	1514.41	30.78%	21.65%	47.57%	+1.74	19
2012-07-06	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-2	1505.26	1481.47	34.45%	23.60%	41.95%	+1.52	22
2012-07-07	Antigua Barracuda FC	T 1-1	1506.78	1469.36	52.10%	19.35%	28.55%	-0.20	23
2012-07-13	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1506.58	1466.99	52.48%	19.14%	28.38%	-0.23	24
2012-07-18	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-2	1506.35	1467.22	36.40%	23.99%	39.61%	-1.44	24
2012-07-20	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1504.91	1475.57	35.13%	23.78%	41.09%	+3.15	27
2012-07-28	Los Angeles Blues	W 2-0	1508.06	1496.53	47.68%	21.60%	30.72%	+2.44	30
2012-08-01	Orlando City SC	L 2-4	1510.50	1553.49	39.04%	24.04%	36.93%	-2.34	30
2012-08-08	Charleston Battery	W 3-0	1508.16	1508.04	45.78%	22.40%	31.82%	+3.68	33
2012-08-11	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1511.84	1510.87	31.93%	22.47%	45.60%	-1.27	33
2012-08-17	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 2-2	1510.57	1496.58	33.32%	23.19%	43.49%	+0.06	34
2012-08-19	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1510.63	1496.52	33.33%	23.20%	43.47%	+1.74	37
2012-04-14	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1497.87	1506.21	44.40%	22.90%	32.70%	-1.76	0
2012-04-20	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1496.11	1507.97	43.83%	23.09%	33.08%	-3.30	0
2012-05-04	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1492.81	1507.98	43.31%	23.25%	33.45%	+1.34	3
2012-05-06	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 2-2	1494.15	1506.64	43.73%	23.12%	33.15%	-0.07	4
2012-05-11	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1494.08	1471.92	34.26%	23.54%	42.20%	+1.70	7
2012-05-12	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1495.78	1488.94	32.54%	22.82%	44.64%	+4.85	10
2012-05-24	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1500.63	1530.87	29.11%	20.03%	50.86%	+0.18	11
2012-05-26	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1500.81	1506.68	31.26%	22.01%	46.73%	-1.32	11
2012-06-15	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1499.49	1464.49	51.68%	19.58%	28.73%	+1.20	14
2012-06-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1500.69	1463.30	52.10%	19.36%	28.55%	+1.18	17
2012-06-28	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 2-3	1501.87	1494.11	32.64%	22.87%	44.50%	-1.23	17
2012-06-30	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-4	1500.64	1504.60	31.44%	22.14%	46.42%	-1.95	17
2012-07-03	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1498.69	1504.66	31.25%	22.01%	46.75%	-1.32	17
2012-07-06	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1497.37	1536.07	39.67%	23.98%	36.34%	-1.62	17
2012-07-08	Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1495.75	1537.69	39.19%	24.03%	36.78%	-5.77	17
2012-07-12	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-0	1489.98	1469.56	34.05%	23.47%	42.48%	+4.68	20
2012-07-14	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1494.66	1464.88	35.19%	23.79%	41.02%	+3.14	23
2012-07-27	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1497.80	1515.43	30.17%	21.12%	48.71%	-1.27	23
2012-07-28	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-2	1496.53	1508.06	30.72%	21.60%	47.68%	-2.44	23
2012-07-31	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1494.09	1473.25	34.10%	23.49%	42.41%	+3.22	26
2012-08-09	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1497.31	1450.36	53.76%	18.41%	27.83%	-1.89	26
2012-08-11	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1495.42	1452.25	53.10%	18.79%	28.11%	+1.16	29
2012-08-17	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1496.58	1510.57	43.49%	23.19%	33.32%	-0.06	30
2012-08-19	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1496.52	1510.63	43.47%	23.20%	33.33%	-1.74	30
2012-04-07	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-0	1517.42	1502.11	33.46%	23.25%	43.28%	+3.26	3
2012-04-15	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-1	1520.68	1506.25	48.17%	21.38%	30.46%	+2.97	6
2012-04-21	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-0	1523.65	1508.44	33.45%	23.25%	43.30%	+3.26	9
2012-04-28	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1526.91	1505.18	49.41%	20.78%	29.82%	-0.18	10
2012-05-05	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-2	1526.73	1490.00	51.98%	19.42%	28.60%	+1.06	13
2012-05-11	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1527.79	1482.01	37.31%	24.06%	38.63%	+1.59	16
2012-05-13	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1529.38	1480.41	37.76%	24.07%	38.16%	+1.49	19
2012-05-24	Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1530.87	1500.63	50.86%	20.03%	29.11%	-0.18	20
2012-05-26	Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1530.69	1493.20	52.11%	19.35%	28.54%	+1.12	23
2012-06-02	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1531.81	1504.35	34.90%	23.72%	41.38%	-2.41	23
2012-06-09	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1529.40	1512.37	48.61%	21.17%	30.23%	+1.20	26
2012-06-17	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1530.60	1475.62	55.16%	17.58%	27.26%	+2.10	29
2012-06-22	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-0	1532.70	1509.06	49.73%	20.62%	29.66%	+3.40	32
2012-06-29	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1536.10	1467.71	40.63%	23.86%	35.51%	-0.03	33
2012-06-30	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1536.07	1482.88	38.37%	24.07%	37.56%	+0.00	34
2012-07-06	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1536.07	1497.37	36.34%	23.98%	39.67%	+1.62	37
2012-07-08	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 4-0	1537.69	1495.75	36.78%	24.03%	39.19%	+5.77	40
2012-07-14	Rochester Rhinos	W 4-0	1543.46	1517.64	50.10%	20.42%	29.47%	+4.41	43
2012-07-19	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1547.87	1515.23	35.55%	23.86%	40.59%	+1.56	46
2012-07-25	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1549.43	1507.86	52.82%	18.95%	28.23%	-0.21	47
2012-07-27	Charleston Battery	W 4-0	1549.22	1513.67	51.78%	19.53%	28.69%	+4.27	50
2012-08-01	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 4-2	1553.49	1510.50	36.93%	24.04%	39.04%	+2.35	53
2012-08-03	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1555.84	1516.70	36.40%	23.99%	39.61%	+1.62	56
2012-08-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1557.46	1466.36	61.46%	13.65%	24.89%	-0.31	57
2012-04-06	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1490.59	1491.87	31.70%	22.32%	45.97%	+1.80	3
2012-04-08	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-3	1492.39	1490.07	32.07%	22.55%	45.38%	-2.21	3
2012-04-21	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1490.18	1476.02	48.12%	21.40%	30.48%	+2.42	6
2012-04-27	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1492.60	1502.60	30.86%	21.71%	47.42%	-1.30	6
2012-04-28	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1491.30	1503.17	30.69%	21.57%	47.74%	-1.30	6
2012-05-05	@ Orlando City SC	L 2-3	1490.00	1526.73	28.60%	19.42%	51.98%	-1.06	6
2012-05-12	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-3	1488.94	1495.78	44.64%	22.82%	32.54%	-4.85	6
2012-05-16	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1484.09	1505.86	29.81%	20.78%	49.41%	+0.19	7
2012-05-18	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1484.28	1505.31	42.38%	23.50%	34.12%	-0.07	8
2012-05-31	Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1484.21	1508.00	41.95%	23.60%	34.45%	-2.77	8
2012-06-09	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1481.44	1464.57	33.64%	23.32%	43.04%	+0.08	9
2012-06-17	Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1481.52	1512.78	40.80%	23.83%	35.38%	-0.04	10
2012-06-22	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1481.48	1511.59	40.97%	23.80%	35.23%	+1.40	13
2012-06-30	Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1482.88	1536.07	37.56%	24.07%	38.37%	+0.00	14
2012-07-04	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-1	1482.88	1467.74	33.45%	23.24%	43.31%	-1.41	14
2012-07-06	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 2-3	1481.47	1505.26	41.95%	23.60%	34.45%	-1.52	14
2012-07-13	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-3	1479.95	1504.64	29.57%	20.52%	49.91%	-2.02	14
2012-07-14	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1477.93	1500.35	29.76%	20.72%	49.52%	-2.36	14
2012-07-20	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-2	1475.57	1504.91	41.09%	23.78%	35.13%	-3.14	14
2012-07-21	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1472.43	1513.23	28.29%	19.02%	52.69%	-2.21	14
2012-07-27	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-1	1470.22	1461.74	47.17%	21.83%	31.01%	+3.03	17
2012-07-31	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-2	1473.25	1494.09	42.41%	23.49%	34.10%	-3.22	17
2012-08-10	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-3	1470.03	1506.89	39.95%	23.95%	36.10%	-4.48	17
2012-08-18	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1465.55	1508.47	28.13%	18.81%	53.06%	-1.16	17
2012-04-07	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1508.52	1497.58	47.58%	21.64%	30.78%	-1.74	0
2012-04-14	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1506.78	1499.32	32.60%	22.85%	44.54%	+1.66	3
2012-04-21	Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1508.44	1523.65	43.30%	23.25%	33.45%	-3.26	3
2012-04-28	@ Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1505.18	1526.91	29.82%	20.78%	49.41%	+0.18	4
2012-05-05	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1505.36	1471.96	35.65%	23.88%	40.47%	+0.04	5
2012-05-12	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1505.40	1505.77	45.70%	22.43%	31.87%	-0.09	6
2012-05-18	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1505.31	1484.28	34.12%	23.50%	42.38%	+0.07	7
2012-05-26	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-1	1505.38	1506.56	45.57%	22.48%	31.95%	+2.21	10
2012-06-01	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1507.59	1511.32	31.46%	22.16%	46.38%	+0.13	11
2012-06-02	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1507.72	1516.05	31.02%	21.84%	47.14%	+1.83	14
2012-06-09	Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1509.55	1492.08	48.68%	21.13%	30.19%	+1.27	17
2012-06-15	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1510.82	1510.32	31.88%	22.44%	45.68%	-1.27	17
2012-06-16	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 1-4	1509.55	1490.81	33.86%	23.40%	42.74%	-3.30	17
2012-06-23	Rochester Rhinos	L 2-3	1506.25	1512.83	44.69%	22.80%	32.51%	-1.59	17
2012-07-03	Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1504.66	1498.69	46.75%	22.01%	31.25%	+1.32	20
2012-07-07	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1505.98	1506.54	31.78%	22.37%	45.85%	-1.34	20
2012-07-13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1504.64	1479.95	49.91%	20.52%	29.57%	+2.02	23
2012-07-21	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1506.66	1466.42	52.59%	19.08%	28.33%	+2.21	26
2012-07-27	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1508.87	1502.70	32.47%	22.78%	44.75%	-1.37	26
2012-07-28	Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1507.50	1504.08	46.33%	22.18%	31.49%	+1.25	29
2012-08-03	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1508.75	1456.55	54.68%	17.87%	27.46%	+2.12	32
2012-08-11	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1510.87	1511.84	45.60%	22.47%	31.93%	+1.28	35
2012-08-17	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1512.15	1451.09	39.53%	24.00%	36.47%	+1.52	38
2012-08-19	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1513.67	1449.57	39.98%	23.95%	36.07%	-1.54	38
2012-04-14	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1506.21	1497.87	32.70%	22.90%	44.40%	+1.76	3
2012-04-20	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-0	1507.97	1496.11	33.08%	23.09%	43.83%	+3.30	6
2012-04-28	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1511.27	1473.59	36.21%	23.97%	39.83%	+1.63	9
2012-05-05	Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1512.90	1496.03	48.58%	21.18%	30.24%	+1.27	12
2012-05-11	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1514.17	1494.76	33.93%	23.43%	42.63%	+1.72	15
2012-05-12	@ Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1515.89	1508.45	32.60%	22.85%	44.55%	+1.76	18
2012-05-18	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1517.65	1470.22	53.84%	18.36%	27.80%	-0.22	19
2012-05-25	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1517.43	1509.94	32.61%	22.85%	44.54%	-1.38	19
2012-05-26	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1516.05	1466.17	37.89%	24.08%	38.03%	+0.00	20
2012-06-02	Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1516.05	1507.72	47.14%	21.84%	31.02%	-1.84	20
2012-06-08	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1514.21	1506.75	47.00%	21.90%	31.10%	-0.13	21
2012-06-15	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1514.08	1507.77	32.48%	22.79%	44.73%	-1.30	21
2012-06-17	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1512.78	1481.52	35.38%	23.83%	40.80%	+0.05	22
2012-06-23	@ Richmond Kickers	W 3-2	1512.83	1506.25	32.51%	22.80%	44.69%	+1.58	25
2012-06-30	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1514.41	1503.52	47.57%	21.65%	30.78%	-1.74	25
2012-07-04	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-1	1512.67	1472.06	52.65%	19.04%	28.30%	+2.70	28
2012-07-07	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1515.37	1469.15	53.63%	18.48%	27.89%	+2.17	31
2012-07-12	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1517.54	1507.89	32.84%	22.97%	44.19%	+0.10	32
2012-07-14	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1517.64	1543.46	29.47%	20.42%	50.10%	-4.41	32
2012-07-21	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1513.23	1472.43	52.69%	19.02%	28.29%	+2.20	35
2012-07-27	Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1515.43	1497.80	48.71%	21.12%	30.17%	+1.27	38
2012-08-03	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1516.70	1555.84	39.61%	23.99%	36.40%	-1.62	38
2012-08-11	Charleston Battery	L 0-4	1515.08	1504.35	47.54%	21.66%	30.80%	-6.61	38
2012-08-18	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1508.47	1465.55	53.06%	18.81%	28.13%	+1.16	41
2012-04-15	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-4	1506.25	1520.68	30.46%	21.38%	48.17%	-2.96	0
2012-04-21	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1503.29	1507.40	45.09%	22.66%	32.25%	-0.12	1
2012-04-28	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1503.17	1491.30	47.74%	21.57%	30.69%	+1.29	4
2012-05-02	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-0	1504.46	1490.07	48.16%	21.38%	30.46%	+3.52	7
2012-05-04	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1507.98	1492.81	33.45%	23.25%	43.31%	-1.34	7
2012-05-06	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 2-2	1506.64	1494.15	33.15%	23.12%	43.73%	+0.07	8
2012-05-19	Charlotte Eagles	T 1-1	1506.71	1493.05	48.04%	21.44%	30.53%	-0.15	9
2012-05-26	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-3	1506.56	1505.38	31.95%	22.48%	45.57%	-2.21	9
2012-06-02	Orlando City SC	W 3-1	1504.35	1531.81	41.38%	23.72%	34.90%	+2.40	12
2012-06-08	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1506.75	1514.21	31.10%	21.90%	47.00%	+0.14	13
2012-06-09	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-0	1506.89	1511.20	31.41%	22.12%	46.47%	+3.43	16
2012-06-15	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1510.32	1510.82	45.68%	22.44%	31.88%	+1.27	19
2012-06-22	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1511.59	1481.48	35.23%	23.80%	40.97%	-1.40	19
2012-06-23	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-4	1510.19	1462.11	37.64%	24.07%	38.29%	-5.59	19
2012-06-30	Los Angeles Blues	W 4-2	1504.60	1500.64	46.42%	22.14%	31.44%	+1.94	22
2012-07-07	Richmond Kickers	W 1-0	1506.54	1505.98	45.85%	22.37%	31.78%	+1.35	25
2012-07-12	Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1507.89	1517.54	44.19%	22.97%	32.84%	-0.11	26
2012-07-14	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1507.78	1513.07	31.31%	22.05%	46.64%	-2.16	26
2012-07-20	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1505.62	1468.66	52.02%	19.40%	28.58%	+2.24	29
2012-07-25	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1507.86	1549.43	28.23%	18.95%	52.82%	+0.21	30
2012-08-03	@ Charleston Battery	T 2-2	1508.07	1509.41	31.70%	22.32%	45.98%	+0.09	31
2012-08-04	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1508.16	1509.32	45.57%	22.48%	31.95%	+1.27	34
2012-08-18	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1509.43	1511.38	45.44%	22.53%	32.03%	-1.79	34
2012-08-19	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1507.64	1513.17	31.29%	22.04%	46.68%	+1.72	37

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2012-08-25	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1510.72	1512.37	56.96%	0.00%	43.04%	+1.28	1-0
2012-08-31	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1512.00	1509.63	43.14%	0.00%	56.86%	+0.11	1-0
2012-09-08	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1512.11	1512.73	57.11%	0.00%	42.89%	+1.35	2-0
2012-08-25	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1512.37	1510.72	43.04%	0.00%	56.96%	-1.28	0-1
2012-08-31	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 3-4	1557.15	1510.98	63.54%	0.00%	36.46%	-1.75	0-1
2012-08-25	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-3	1512.13	1509.36	57.59%	0.00%	42.41%	-1.62	0-1
2012-08-31	Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1509.63	1512.00	56.86%	0.00%	43.14%	-0.11	0-0
2012-08-25	@ Richmond Kickers	W 3-2	1509.36	1512.13	42.41%	0.00%	57.59%	+1.62	1-0
2012-08-31	@ Orlando City SC	W 4-3	1510.98	1557.15	36.46%	0.00%	63.54%	+1.75	2-0
2012-09-08	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1512.73	1512.11	42.89%	0.00%	57.11%	-1.35	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2012-08-09	27.83%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1450.36	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1497.31	1
2	2012-07-06	29.73%	Charlotte Eagles	1495.35	2	@ Charleston Battery	1518.07	0
3	2012-05-04	30.57%	Charlotte Eagles	1494.28	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1507.52	1
4	2012-04-07	30.78%	Charleston Battery	1497.58	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1508.52	1
5	2012-06-30	30.78%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1503.52	2	@ Rochester Rhinos	1514.41	1
6	2012-08-11	30.80%	Charleston Battery	1504.35	4	@ Rochester Rhinos	1515.08	0
7	2012-06-02	31.02%	Richmond Kickers	1507.72	1	@ Rochester Rhinos	1516.05	0
8	2012-08-19	31.29%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1507.64	2	@ Charlotte Eagles	1513.17	1
9	2012-06-09	31.41%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1506.89	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1511.20	0
10	2012-04-28	31.57%	Charlotte Eagles	1490.86	2	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1493.49	0
11	2012-04-06	31.70%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1490.59	1	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1491.87	0
12	2012-04-17	31.73%	Charleston Battery	1497.66	3	@ Charlotte Eagles	1498.66	0
13	2012-08-18	32.03%	Charlotte Eagles	1511.38	1	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1509.43	0
14	2012-06-23	32.51%	Rochester Rhinos	1512.83	3	@ Richmond Kickers	1506.25	2
15	2012-05-12	32.54%	Los Angeles Blues	1495.78	3	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1488.94	0
16	2012-04-14	32.60%	Richmond Kickers	1506.78	2	@ Charleston Battery	1499.32	1
17	2012-05-12	32.60%	Rochester Rhinos	1515.89	1	@ Charleston Battery	1508.45	0
18	2012-04-14	32.70%	Rochester Rhinos	1506.21	1	@ Los Angeles Blues	1497.87	0
19	2012-04-20	33.08%	Rochester Rhinos	1507.97	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1496.11	0
20	2012-04-20	33.10%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1505.76	2	@ Charlotte Eagles	1493.72	1
21	2012-08-19	33.33%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1510.63	1	@ Los Angeles Blues	1496.52	0
22	2012-04-21	33.45%	Orlando City SC	1523.65	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1508.44	0
23	2012-04-07	33.46%	Orlando City SC	1517.42	2	@ Charlotte Eagles	1502.11	0
24	2012-05-11	33.93%	Rochester Rhinos	1514.17	1	@ Charlotte Eagles	1494.76	0
25	2012-07-12	34.05%	Los Angeles Blues	1489.98	3	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1469.56	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-08-11	6.62	Charleston Battery	4	1504.35	30.80%	@ Rochester Rhinos	0	1515.08	47.54%	21.66%
2	2012-07-08	5.77	Orlando City SC	4	1537.69	36.78%	@ Los Angeles Blues	0	1495.75	39.19%	24.03%
3	2012-06-23	5.60	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	4	1462.11	38.29%	Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1510.19	37.64%	24.07%
4	2012-04-17	4.94	Charleston Battery	3	1497.66	31.73%	@ Charlotte Eagles	0	1498.66	45.93%	22.34%
5	2012-05-12	4.85	Los Angeles Blues	3	1495.78	32.54%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1488.94	44.64%	22.82%
6	2012-07-12	4.68	Los Angeles Blues	3	1489.98	34.05%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1469.56	42.48%	23.47%
7	2012-05-04	4.55	@ Charleston Battery	4	1503.90	48.66%	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1486.55	30.20%	21.14%
8	2012-08-10	4.48	Charlotte Eagles	3	1506.89	36.10%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1470.03	39.95%	23.95%
9	2012-07-14	4.41	@ Orlando City SC	4	1543.46	50.10%	Rochester Rhinos	0	1517.64	29.47%	20.42%
10	2012-05-19	4.27	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	4	1505.67	51.72%	Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1470.44	28.72%	19.56%
11	2012-07-27	4.27	@ Orlando City SC	4	1549.22	51.78%	Charleston Battery	0	1513.67	28.69%	19.53%
12	2012-08-04	4.07	@ Charlotte Eagles	4	1502.82	54.01%	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1454.43	27.73%	18.26%
13	2012-08-08	3.69	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	3	1508.16	45.78%	Charleston Battery	0	1508.04	31.82%	22.40%
14	2012-07-06	3.58	Charlotte Eagles	2	1495.35	29.73%	@ Charleston Battery	0	1518.07	49.57%	20.69%
15	2012-05-02	3.52	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	3	1504.46	48.16%	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1490.07	30.46%	21.38%
16	2012-06-09	3.43	Wilmington Hammerheads	2	1506.89	31.41%	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	0	1511.20	46.47%	22.12%
17	2012-04-28	3.42	Charlotte Eagles	2	1490.86	31.57%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1493.49	46.19%	22.23%
18	2012-06-22	3.40	@ Orlando City SC	3	1532.70	49.73%	Harrisburg City Islanders	0	1509.06	29.66%	20.62%
19	2012-06-15	3.30	@ Charleston Battery	3	1511.17	51.21%	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1478.92	28.95%	19.84%
20	2012-04-20	3.30	Rochester Rhinos	2	1507.97	33.08%	@ Los Angeles Blues	0	1496.11	43.83%	23.09%
21	2012-06-16	3.30	@ Charlotte Eagles	4	1490.81	42.74%	Richmond Kickers	1	1509.55	33.86%	23.40%
22	2012-04-07	3.26	Orlando City SC	2	1517.42	33.46%	@ Charlotte Eagles	0	1502.11	43.28%	23.25%
23	2012-04-21	3.26	Orlando City SC	2	1523.65	33.45%	@ Richmond Kickers	0	1508.44	43.30%	23.25%
24	2012-07-31	3.22	Los Angeles Blues	2	1494.09	34.10%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1473.25	42.41%	23.49%
25	2012-07-20	3.15	Harrisburg City Islanders	2	1504.91	35.13%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1475.57	41.09%	23.78%