2011 USL Season
139 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Harrisburg City Islanders
1st Title
Runner-Up
Orlando City SC
1st Appearance
Biggest Overachiever
Orlando City SC
17.27 points above expected
50 points · 32.73 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Dayton Dutch Lions
19.51 points below expected
12 points · 31.51 expected points
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando City SC Conference | 15 | 3 | 5 | 50 | .725 | 34 | 14 | +20 | 32.73 | +17.27 |
| 2 | Wilmington Hammerheads Playoffs | 14 | 7 | 3 | 45 | .625 | 42 | 30 | +12 | 33.79 | +11.21 |
| 3 | Richmond Kickers Playoffs | 12 | 7 | 5 | 41 | .569 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 34.50 | +6.50 |
| 4 | Charleston Battery Playoffs | 10 | 9 | 5 | 35 | .486 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 33.39 | +1.61 |
| 5 | Charlotte Eagles | 9 | 9 | 6 | 33 | .458 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 33.39 | -0.39 |
| 6 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 4 | 12 | 2 | 14 | .259 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 23.69 | -9.69 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochester Rhinos Conference | 12 | 8 | 4 | 40 | .556 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 33.79 | +6.21 |
| 2 | Harrisburg City Islanders Playoffs | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 | .514 | 37 | 30 | +7 | 33.61 | +3.39 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Playoffs | 7 | 11 | 6 | 27 | .375 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 32.70 | -5.70 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Blues Playoffs | 6 | 7 | 8 | 26 | .413 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 30.48 | -4.48 |
| 5 | FC New York | 6 | 11 | 7 | 25 | .347 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 32.69 | -7.69 |
| 6 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 2 | 16 | 6 | 12 | .167 | 21 | 54 | -33 | 31.51 | -19.51 |
Playoff Bracket
American Conference
Semifinals
Richmond Kickers
0
Wilmington Hammerheads
0
Orlando City SC
3
Charleston Battery
1
Conference Final
Orlando City SC
3
Richmond Kickers
0
National Conference
Semifinals
Harrisburg City Islanders
3
Los Angeles Blues
1
Rochester Rhinos
4
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0
Conference Final
Harrisburg City Islanders
2
Rochester Rhinos
1
USL Championship
Harrisburg City Islanders
2
Orlando City SC
2
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Points | Avg. Pts. | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | American | 1523 | 50 | 32.73 | +17.27 | 99.80% | 12 | 23 | 28 | 33 | 37 | 43 | 57 | |
| Richmond Kickers | American | 1516 | 41 | 34.50 | +6.50 | 85.89% | 11 | 24 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 45 | 59 | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | American | 1511 | 45 | 33.79 | +11.21 | 96.63% | 10 | 23 | 29 | 34 | 38 | 44 | 59 | |
| Rochester Rhinos | National | 1508 | 40 | 33.79 | +6.21 | 85.08% | 8 | 23 | 29 | 34 | 38 | 44 | 58 | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | National | 1506 | 37 | 33.61 | +3.39 | 72.97% | 11 | 23 | 29 | 34 | 38 | 44 | 59 | |
| Charlotte Eagles | American | 1504 | 33 | 33.39 | -0.39 | 51.10% | 12 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 44 | 57 | |
| Charleston Battery | American | 1499 | 35 | 33.39 | +1.61 | 62.95% | 10 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 44 | 60 | |
| Los Angeles Blues | National | 1499 | 26 | 30.48 | -4.48 | 25.75% | 10 | 21 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 41 | 53 | |
| FC New York | National | 1491 | 25 | 32.69 | -7.69 | 13.31% | 9 | 22 | 28 | 33 | 37 | 43 | 61 | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | National | 1490 | 27 | 32.70 | -5.70 | 21.48% | 10 | 22 | 28 | 33 | 37 | 43 | 58 | |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | American | 1488 | 14 | 23.69 | -9.69 | 4.75% | 3 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 27 | 33 | 43 | |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | National | 1463 | 12 | 31.51 | -19.51 | 0.12% | 8 | 21 | 27 | 31 | 36 | 42 | 57 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Within American
| Team | FC | Battery | Eagles | SC | Kickers | Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | — |
—
|
0
(1.1 exp.)
|
3
(4.2 exp.)
|
0
(1.0 exp.)
|
0
(3.2 exp.)
|
| Charleston Battery |
—
|
— |
9
(4.4 exp.)
|
3
(3.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
6
(3.9 exp.)
|
| Charlotte Eagles |
3
(1.6 exp.)
|
0
(3.9 exp.)
|
— |
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
6
(4.4 exp.)
|
| Orlando City SC |
6
(4.1 exp.)
|
6
(4.6 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
— |
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Richmond Kickers |
3
(1.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
— |
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Wilmington Hammerheads |
6
(2.4 exp.)
|
3
(4.5 exp.)
|
3
(3.9 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
— |
American vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Lions | York | Islanders | Blues | Riverhounds | Rhinos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC |
—
|
0
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
10
(7.5 exp.)
|
0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1
(4.4 exp.)
|
| Charleston Battery |
7
(4.1 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
1
(1.6 exp.)
|
2
(4.5 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
| Charlotte Eagles |
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
1
(4.4 exp.)
|
3
(2.2 exp.)
|
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
| Orlando City SC |
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
—
|
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
7
(4.0 exp.)
|
| Richmond Kickers |
9
(4.8 exp.)
|
5
(4.1 exp.)
|
1
(2.9 exp.)
|
2
(4.1 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Wilmington Hammerheads |
3
(1.3 exp.)
|
6
(2.9 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
6
(3.3 exp.)
|
7
(4.5 exp.)
|
4
(2.8 exp.)
|
Within National
| Team | Lions | York | Islanders | Blues | Riverhounds | Rhinos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Dutch Lions | — |
3
(4.3 exp.)
|
1
(3.6 exp.)
|
2
(3.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
| FC New York |
6
(4.0 exp.)
|
— |
2
(3.8 exp.)
|
—
|
1
(3.9 exp.)
|
6
(4.2 exp.)
|
| Harrisburg City Islanders |
7
(4.7 exp.)
|
5
(4.6 exp.)
|
— |
5
(3.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Blues |
5
(4.7 exp.)
|
—
|
2
(4.4 exp.)
|
— |
3
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
7
(4.4 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
0
(1.6 exp.)
|
— |
0
(3.7 exp.)
|
| Rochester Rhinos |
6
(2.9 exp.)
|
3
(4.1 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
—
|
9
(4.6 exp.)
|
— |
National vs. Outside Teams
| Team | FC | Battery | Eagles | SC | Kickers | Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Dutch Lions |
—
|
1
(4.2 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
0
(3.6 exp.)
|
0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| FC New York |
3
(1.7 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
0
(2.8 exp.)
|
2
(4.2 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
| Harrisburg City Islanders |
—
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
7
(3.9 exp.)
|
0
(2.7 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
0
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Blues |
7
(9.2 exp.)
|
1
(1.1 exp.)
|
3
(3.3 exp.)
|
—
|
5
(4.2 exp.)
|
0
(2.2 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
3
(1.6 exp.)
|
5
(3.8 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(3.8 exp.)
|
| Rochester Rhinos |
7
(3.9 exp.)
|
6
(2.8 exp.)
|
1
(2.9 exp.)
|
1
(4.3 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(2.7 exp.)
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
Win
Loss
Same range
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.35% | 8.99% | 5.40% | 3.96% | 0.72% | 0.72% | 29.14% |
| 1 | 8.99% | 9.35% | 11.15% | 3.96% | 0.72% | 0.36% | 34.53% |
| 2 | 5.40% | 11.15% | 4.32% | 1.08% | 1.08% | — | 23.02% |
| 3 | 3.96% | 3.96% | 1.08% | — | 0.36% | — | 9.35% |
| 4 | 0.72% | 0.72% | 1.08% | 0.36% | — | — | 2.88% |
| 5+ | 0.72% | 0.36% | — | — | — | — | 1.08% |
| Total | 29.14% | 34.53% | 23.02% | 9.35% | 2.88% | 1.08% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.26 | 1.26 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.70 |
| CV | 0.90 | 0.90 | — |
| Max | 6 | 6 | +6 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -6 |
Games Played: 139
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 11.11% | 22.22% | — | — | — | 33.33% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 5.56% | 22.22% | 5.56% | — | — | 38.89% |
| 2 | — | 11.11% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 3 | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 11.11% | 27.78% | 50.00% | 11.11% | — | — | 100% |
Antigua Barracuda FC — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.61 | -0.61 |
| SD | 0.91 | 0.85 | 1.38 |
| CV | 0.91 | 0.53 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 18
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | 20.83% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | 41.67% |
| 1 | 12.50% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 20.83% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 29.17% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | 4.17% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 29.17% | 45.83% | 16.67% | 8.33% | — | — | 100% |
Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.04 | -0.04 |
| SD | 1.06 | 0.91 | 1.20 |
| CV | 1.06 | 0.87 | — |
| Max | 4 | 3 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.33% | 12.50% | — | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | 29.17% |
| 1 | 4.17% | 8.33% | 12.50% | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | 12.50% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 29.17% |
| 3 | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | — | 4.17% | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 33.33% | 33.33% | 20.83% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | 100% |
Charlotte Eagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.33 | 1.21 | +0.12 |
| SD | 1.09 | 1.22 | 1.73 |
| CV | 0.82 | 1.01 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.17% | 12.50% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | 8.33% | 37.50% |
| 1 | — | 12.50% | 8.33% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | 37.50% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 8.33% | 29.17% | 20.83% | 25.00% | 8.33% | 8.33% | 100% |
Dayton Dutch Lions — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.88 | 2.25 | -1.38 |
| SD | 0.80 | 1.51 | 1.81 |
| CV | 0.91 | 0.67 | — |
| Max | 2 | 6 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -6 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | — | 12.50% | 4.17% | — | — | 29.17% |
| 1 | 4.17% | 12.50% | 8.33% | 16.67% | — | 4.17% | 45.83% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 29.17% | 20.83% | 25.00% | 20.83% | — | 4.17% | 100% |
FC New York — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.12 | 1.54 | -0.42 |
| SD | 1.15 | 1.35 | 2.00 |
| CV | 1.03 | 0.88 | — |
| Max | 5 | 5 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | 4.17% | — | 16.67% |
| 1 | 16.67% | 20.83% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | 54.17% |
| 2 | — | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 3 | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 4 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 12.50% |
| 5+ | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 25.00% | 41.67% | 20.83% | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | 100% |
Harrisburg City Islanders — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.54 | 1.25 | +0.29 |
| SD | 1.41 | 1.07 | 1.83 |
| CV | 0.92 | 0.86 | — |
| Max | 5 | 4 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.29% | 4.76% | — | 4.76% | — | — | 23.81% |
| 1 | — | 23.81% | 19.05% | — | — | — | 42.86% |
| 2 | — | 19.05% | — | — | 4.76% | — | 23.81% |
| 3 | 4.76% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76% |
| 4 | — | 4.76% | — | — | — | — | 4.76% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 19.05% | 52.38% | 19.05% | 4.76% | 4.76% | — | 100% |
Los Angeles Blues — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.24 | 1.24 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.04 | 1.00 | 1.41 |
| CV | 0.84 | 0.80 | — |
| Max | 4 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 21
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.39% | 4.35% | 4.35% | — | — | — | 26.09% |
| 1 | 21.74% | 4.35% | 4.35% | — | — | — | 30.43% |
| 2 | 4.35% | 17.39% | — | — | — | — | 21.74% |
| 3 | 4.35% | 8.70% | — | — | — | — | 13.04% |
| 4 | 4.35% | — | 4.35% | — | — | — | 8.70% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 52.17% | 34.78% | 13.04% | — | — | — | 100% |
Orlando City SC — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.48 | 0.61 | +0.87 |
| SD | 1.27 | 0.72 | 1.32 |
| CV | 0.86 | 1.19 | — |
| Max | 4 | 2 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 23
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | 8.33% | 4.17% | 12.50% | — | — | 41.67% |
| 1 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | 16.67% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | 4.17% | — | 29.17% |
| 3 | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 37.50% | 20.83% | 16.67% | 20.83% | 4.17% | — | 100% |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.96 | 1.33 | -0.38 |
| SD | 0.95 | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| CV | 1.00 | 0.98 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.50% | 4.17% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 1 | 8.33% | 4.17% | 16.67% | — | — | — | 29.17% |
| 2 | 12.50% | 16.67% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 33.33% |
| 3 | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 4.17% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| Total | 41.67% | 29.17% | 29.17% | — | — | — | 100% |
Richmond Kickers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.46 | 0.88 | +0.58 |
| SD | 1.35 | 0.85 | 1.77 |
| CV | 0.93 | 0.97 | — |
| Max | 6 | 2 | +6 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.17% | 16.67% | — | 4.17% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 1 | 20.83% | 4.17% | 12.50% | — | — | — | 37.50% |
| 2 | 4.17% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 20.83% |
| 3 | 8.33% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 37.50% | 33.33% | 25.00% | 4.17% | — | — | 100% |
Rochester Rhinos — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.29 | 0.96 | +0.33 |
| SD | 1.04 | 0.91 | 1.43 |
| CV | 0.81 | 0.95 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.17% | 4.17% | 8.33% | 4.17% | — | — | 20.83% |
| 1 | 8.33% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 2 | — | 12.50% | — | — | 4.17% | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | 8.33% | 20.83% | 4.17% | — | — | — | 33.33% |
| 4 | — | — | 4.17% | — | — | — | 4.17% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.83% | 45.83% | 25.00% | 4.17% | 4.17% | — | 100% |
Wilmington Hammerheads — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.75 | 1.25 | +0.50 |
| SD | 1.26 | 0.99 | 1.69 |
| CV | 0.72 | 0.79 | — |
| Max | 4 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 24
Points Points vs. Goal Differential
Plot of points against goals differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando City SC | 50 | 32.73 | +17.27 |
| 2 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 45 | 33.79 | +11.21 |
| 3 | Richmond Kickers | 41 | 34.50 | +6.50 |
| 4 | Rochester Rhinos | 40 | 33.79 | +6.21 |
| 5 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 37 | 33.61 | +3.39 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 12 | 31.51 | -19.51 |
| 2 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 14 | 23.69 | -9.69 |
| 3 | FC New York | 25 | 32.69 | -7.69 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 32.70 | -5.70 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Blues | 26 | 30.48 | -4.48 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando City SC | 5 | Apr 9 – May 14 | 1 in 148 |
| 2 | Richmond Kickers | 6 | Apr 2 – May 7 | 1 in 125 |
| 3 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 4 | Jul 23 – Aug 5 | 1 in 45 |
| 4 | Rochester Rhinos | 4 | Jun 11 – Jul 1 | 1 in 27 |
| 5 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 3 | May 31 – Jun 8 | 1 in 9 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 7 | Jun 24 – Jul 16 | 1 in 836 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 5 | May 31 – Jun 24 | 1 in 57 |
| 3 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 6 | Jun 8 – Jul 4 | 1 in 56 |
| 4 | Charleston Battery | 3 | May 7 – May 21 | 1 in 15 |
| 5 | FC New York | 3 | Jul 4 – Jul 9 | 1 in 14 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando City SC | 10 | Apr 9 – Jun 4 | 1 in 173 |
| 2 | Charlotte Eagles | 7 | May 14 – Jun 24 | 1 in 29 |
| 3 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 6 | Jun 17 – Jul 15 | 1 in 28 |
| 4 | Richmond Kickers | 7 | Apr 2 – May 14 | 1 in 20 |
| 5 | Rochester Rhinos | 6 | Jun 3 – Jul 1 | 1 in 18 |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 13 | Jun 8 – Jul 27 | 1 in 122 |
| 2 | FC New York | 8 | Jul 4 – Aug 5 | 1 in 37 |
| 3 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 7 | Jun 24 – Jul 16 | 1 in 30 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 7 | May 22 – Jun 24 | 1 in 26 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Blues | 5 | Jun 24 – Jul 15 | 1 in 16 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Kickers | 23.93% | 20.94% | 18.92% | 16.69% | 13.50% | 6.02% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 20.46% | 20.41% | 19.05% | 17.86% | 14.29% | 7.93% |
| Charleston Battery | 19.61% | 18.82% | 19.02% | 18.02% | 17.01% | 7.52% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 19.23% | 19.26% | 18.88% | 18.30% | 16.73% | 7.60% |
| Orlando City SC | 16.01% | 18.25% | 19.53% | 19.38% | 17.21% | 9.62% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.76% | 2.32% | 4.60% | 9.75% | 21.26% | 61.31% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester Rhinos | 21.64% | 19.60% | 17.12% | 16.05% | 13.78% | 11.81% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 21.70% | 18.44% | 17.17% | 15.67% | 14.41% | 12.61% |
| FC New York | 17.40% | 17.12% | 17.09% | 16.46% | 16.37% | 15.56% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 17.69% | 16.73% | 17.16% | 15.84% | 17.05% | 15.53% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 12.60% | 15.66% | 15.84% | 17.33% | 17.61% | 20.96% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 8.97% | 12.45% | 15.62% | 18.65% | 20.78% | 23.53% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Kickers | 13.17% | 11.45% | 10.26% | 10.14% | 9.57% | 8.69% | 7.91% | 7.12% | 6.67% | 6.28% | 5.26% | 3.48% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 11.27% | 10.25% | 9.53% | 9.49% | 9.48% | 8.94% | 8.45% | 7.84% | 7.79% | 6.86% | 6.12% | 3.98% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 10.64% | 10.15% | 10.38% | 9.72% | 9.24% | 8.62% | 8.83% | 8.19% | 7.19% | 7.07% | 5.69% | 4.28% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 10.63% | 9.80% | 9.78% | 9.36% | 9.16% | 9.01% | 8.76% | 8.39% | 8.03% | 6.73% | 6.51% | 3.84% |
| Charleston Battery | 9.97% | 9.84% | 9.69% | 9.15% | 9.42% | 8.64% | 8.36% | 8.53% | 8.04% | 7.16% | 7.08% | 4.12% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 10.11% | 9.51% | 9.25% | 9.27% | 9.03% | 9.19% | 8.59% | 8.66% | 8.07% | 7.47% | 6.46% | 4.39% |
| Orlando City SC | 7.81% | 8.71% | 9.41% | 9.05% | 8.76% | 8.79% | 9.07% | 9.16% | 8.95% | 8.10% | 7.03% | 5.16% |
| FC New York | 8.32% | 8.78% | 8.72% | 8.95% | 8.68% | 8.90% | 8.71% | 8.65% | 8.94% | 8.08% | 7.97% | 5.30% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 8.57% | 8.69% | 8.87% | 8.81% | 8.34% | 8.60% | 8.72% | 8.81% | 8.82% | 8.69% | 7.74% | 5.34% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 5.76% | 7.23% | 7.34% | 8.09% | 8.12% | 8.90% | 9.08% | 9.32% | 8.85% | 9.90% | 9.99% | 7.42% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 3.53% | 5.17% | 5.87% | 6.73% | 8.16% | 9.10% | 9.46% | 9.69% | 10.63% | 11.10% | 10.36% | 10.20% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.22% | 0.42% | 0.90% | 1.24% | 2.04% | 2.62% | 4.06% | 5.64% | 8.02% | 12.56% | 19.79% | 42.49% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Kickers | 23.93% | 20.94% | 18.92% | 16.69% | 19.52% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 20.46% | 20.41% | 19.05% | 17.86% | 22.22% |
| Charleston Battery | 19.61% | 18.82% | 19.02% | 18.02% | 24.53% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 19.23% | 19.26% | 18.88% | 18.30% | 24.33% |
| Orlando City SC | 16.01% | 18.25% | 19.53% | 19.38% | 26.83% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.76% | 2.32% | 4.60% | 9.75% | 82.57% |
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 21.70% | 18.44% | 17.17% | 15.67% | 27.02% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 21.64% | 19.60% | 17.12% | 16.05% | 25.59% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 17.69% | 16.73% | 17.16% | 15.84% | 32.58% |
| FC New York | 17.40% | 17.12% | 17.09% | 16.46% | 31.93% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 12.60% | 15.66% | 15.84% | 17.33% | 38.57% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 8.97% | 12.45% | 15.62% | 18.65% | 44.31% |
Points Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of points. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median points for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to USL Championship | Won USL Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Kickers | 80.48% | 42.74% | 21.96% | 12.01% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 77.78% | 38.93% | 19.75% | 10.43% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 74.41% | 39.55% | 20.78% | 10.38% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 72.98% | 38.86% | 20.89% | 10.37% |
| Orlando City SC | 73.17% | 37.76% | 18.95% | 10.14% |
| Charleston Battery | 75.47% | 36.54% | 17.88% | 9.22% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 75.67% | 36.70% | 18.23% | 9.08% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 67.42% | 33.49% | 16.74% | 7.78% |
| FC New York | 68.07% | 33.44% | 16.39% | 7.72% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 55.69% | 27.37% | 13.25% | 6.08% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 61.43% | 27.29% | 11.95% | 5.26% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 17.43% | 7.33% | 3.23% | 1.53% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Orlando City SC | Richmond Kickers | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 1.72% | 1.61% | 1.04% | 1.71% | 1.25% | |
| Charleston Battery | 2.15% | 8.45% | 7.92% | 8.67% | 9.35% | |
| Charlotte Eagles | 2.04% | 8.78% | 8.40% | 8.61% | 8.87% | |
| Orlando City SC | 1.54% | 8.88% | 9.08% | 9.37% | 8.89% | |
| Richmond Kickers | 2.23% | 10.45% | 10.38% | 9.19% | 10.49% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 2.14% | 9.10% | 9.45% | 8.86% | 9.38% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Dayton Dutch Lions | FC New York | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rochester Rhinos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 5.63% | 6.09% | 4.22% | 5.24% | 6.11% | |
| FC New York | 6.87% | 7.34% | 5.27% | 6.67% | 7.29% | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 7.80% | 8.13% | 6.39% | 8.37% | 8.17% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 4.51% | 5.66% | 5.50% | 5.69% | 6.01% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6.84% | 6.73% | 7.01% | 5.63% | 7.28% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 8.12% | 8.48% | 8.18% | 6.81% | 7.96% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Orlando City SC | Richmond Kickers | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.46% | 0.52% | 0.67% | 0.78% | 0.80% | |
| Charleston Battery | 0.83% | 3.97% | 4.18% | 4.59% | 4.31% | |
| Charlotte Eagles | 0.68% | 4.45% | 4.16% | 4.80% | 4.14% | |
| Orlando City SC | 0.76% | 4.09% | 4.54% | 5.13% | 4.43% | |
| Richmond Kickers | 0.97% | 5.04% | 5.16% | 5.29% | 5.50% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 0.86% | 4.62% | 4.28% | 4.51% | 5.48% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Dayton Dutch Lions | FC New York | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rochester Rhinos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 2.38% | 2.79% | 1.72% | 2.26% | 2.80% | |
| FC New York | 2.80% | 3.67% | 2.63% | 3.50% | 3.79% | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 3.51% | 4.32% | 3.41% | 4.40% | 5.25% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 1.96% | 2.52% | 3.03% | 2.56% | 3.18% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 3.00% | 3.43% | 3.67% | 2.89% | 3.75% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 4.07% | 4.40% | 4.81% | 3.47% | 4.03% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | FC New York | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.31% | 0.20% | 0.46% | 0.14% | 0.20% | 0.22% | ||||||
| Charleston Battery | 1.27% | 1.52% | 1.65% | 1.26% | 1.63% | 1.89% | ||||||
| Charlotte Eagles | 1.23% | 1.38% | 1.73% | 1.20% | 1.54% | 2.00% | ||||||
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 0.22% | 0.85% | 1.13% | 0.92% | 1.09% | 1.05% | ||||||
| FC New York | 0.30% | 1.47% | 1.35% | 1.52% | 1.62% | 1.46% | ||||||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 0.33% | 1.78% | 2.00% | 1.86% | 2.28% | 2.12% | ||||||
| Los Angeles Blues | 0.09% | 1.14% | 1.27% | 1.18% | 1.24% | 1.16% | ||||||
| Orlando City SC | 1.26% | 1.81% | 1.97% | 1.47% | 1.83% | 1.80% | ||||||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.32% | 1.47% | 1.36% | 1.52% | 1.59% | 1.52% | ||||||
| Richmond Kickers | 1.38% | 1.84% | 2.64% | 1.65% | 1.90% | 2.60% | ||||||
| Rochester Rhinos | 0.44% | 1.95% | 2.04% | 1.81% | 2.13% | 2.01% | ||||||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 1.24% | 1.92% | 2.07% | 1.45% | 1.86% | 1.89% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to USL Championship | Won USL Championship | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 62.97% | 37.96% | 23.40% | Eliminated in USL Championship |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 59.21% | 28.79% | 11.53% | Won USL Championship |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Orlando City SC | Richmond Kickers | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 37.03% | |||
| Orlando City SC | 62.97% | |||
| Richmond Kickers | 41.84% | |||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 58.16% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rochester Rhinos |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 59.21% | |||
| Los Angeles Blues | 40.79% | |||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 38.64% | |||
| Rochester Rhinos | 61.36% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Orlando City SC | Richmond Kickers | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 5.63% | 8.59% | ||
| Orlando City SC | 15.80% | 22.16% | ||
| Richmond Kickers | 9.63% | 10.78% | ||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 13.18% | 14.23% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rochester Rhinos |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 13.93% | 14.86% | ||
| Los Angeles Blues | 9.58% | 9.90% | ||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 9.03% | 6.10% | ||
| Rochester Rhinos | 21.39% | 15.21% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 1.61% | 1.70% | 1.16% | 2.35% | ||||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 2.32% | 4.21% | 2.18% | 2.82% | ||||
| Los Angeles Blues | 1.02% | 2.92% | 1.66% | 2.24% | ||||
| Orlando City SC | 7.14% | 4.44% | 3.52% | 8.30% | ||||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.75% | 2.10% | 1.39% | 1.51% | ||||
| Richmond Kickers | 3.59% | 2.39% | 2.06% | 4.22% | ||||
| Rochester Rhinos | 3.31% | 5.33% | 2.92% | 4.28% | ||||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 4.92% | 3.11% | 2.64% | 5.89% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Orlando City SC
23.40% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
62.97%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Wilmington Hammerheads
Matchup
58.38%
Win Prob
60.90%
→
USL Championship
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
35.47%
Win Prob
60.90%
Wilmington Hammerheads
16.56% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
58.16%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
51.92%
Win Prob
39.10%
→
USL Championship
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
35.57%
Win Prob
57.92%
Rochester Rhinos
15.84% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
61.36%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
58.44%
Win Prob
59.01%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
33.65%
Win Prob
39.10%
Richmond Kickers
12.26% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Wilmington Hammerheads
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
41.84%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
52.82%
Win Prob
40.56%
→
USL Championship
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
34.42%
Win Prob
59.10%
Harrisburg City Islanders
11.53% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Los Angeles Blues
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
59.21%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
51.62%
Win Prob
40.99%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
36.51%
Win Prob
37.09%
Los Angeles Blues
7.84% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
40.79%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
50.82%
Win Prob
39.43%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
37.24%
Win Prob
39.67%
Charleston Battery
6.82% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
37.03%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Wilmington Hammerheads
Matchup
60.41%
Win Prob
39.46%
→
USL Championship
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
34.46%
Win Prob
41.52%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
5.75% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
38.64%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
59.68%
Win Prob
39.33%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
36.52%
Win Prob
37.37%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-04-17 | Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 47.48% | 22.30% | 30.22% | -1.52 | 0 |
| 2011-05-01 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1498.48 | 1501.52 | 29.99% | 21.97% | 48.04% | +1.62 | 3 |
| 2011-05-14 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-2 | 1500.10 | 1499.23 | 30.29% | 22.39% | 47.32% | -2.11 | 3 |
| 2011-05-20 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1497.99 | 1496.13 | 30.36% | 22.49% | 47.15% | -2.13 | 3 |
| 2011-06-03 | Rochester Rhinos | L 1-2 | 1495.86 | 1500.02 | 46.73% | 22.73% | 30.54% | -1.50 | 3 |
| 2011-06-05 | Rochester Rhinos | T 2-2 | 1494.36 | 1501.52 | 46.18% | 23.03% | 30.79% | -0.09 | 4 |
| 2011-06-10 | @ Orlando City SC | W 2-1 | 1494.27 | 1513.74 | 28.86% | 20.02% | 51.12% | +1.59 | 7 |
| 2011-06-24 | Orlando City SC | L 1-3 | 1495.86 | 1512.01 | 44.59% | 23.85% | 31.56% | -2.53 | 7 |
| 2011-06-26 | Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1493.33 | 1514.54 | 43.70% | 24.26% | 32.03% | -1.44 | 7 |
| 2011-07-01 | @ FC New York | L 0-2 | 1491.89 | 1494.20 | 30.04% | 22.05% | 47.91% | -2.10 | 7 |
| 2011-07-03 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-2 | 1489.79 | 1487.12 | 30.43% | 22.58% | 47.00% | -2.13 | 7 |
| 2011-07-08 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-1 | 1487.66 | 1501.98 | 44.91% | 23.69% | 31.40% | -1.55 | 7 |
| 2011-07-10 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 2-3 | 1486.11 | 1503.54 | 44.36% | 23.96% | 31.68% | -1.39 | 7 |
| 2011-07-16 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1484.72 | 1513.20 | 28.30% | 18.86% | 52.83% | -1.01 | 7 |
| 2011-07-29 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1483.71 | 1504.65 | 28.77% | 19.84% | 51.40% | +1.59 | 10 |
| 2011-07-31 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1485.30 | 1503.06 | 28.97% | 20.23% | 50.79% | -0.99 | 10 |
| 2011-08-02 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 1-1 | 1484.31 | 1504.05 | 28.84% | 19.99% | 51.17% | +0.17 | 11 |
| 2011-08-07 | Los Angeles Blues | W 3-0 | 1484.48 | 1502.86 | 44.19% | 24.04% | 31.77% | +3.26 | 14 |
| 2011-04-09 | Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 47.48% | 22.30% | 30.22% | +1.12 | 3 |
| 2011-04-16 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-1 | 1501.12 | 1500.00 | 30.31% | 22.41% | 47.28% | +1.52 | 6 |
| 2011-04-23 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1502.64 | 1504.27 | 30.10% | 22.12% | 47.78% | -1.06 | 6 |
| 2011-04-29 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 2-1 | 1501.58 | 1497.13 | 30.57% | 22.76% | 46.67% | +1.51 | 9 |
| 2011-04-30 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1503.09 | 1498.25 | 48.38% | 21.77% | 29.86% | -0.15 | 10 |
| 2011-05-06 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1502.94 | 1498.41 | 30.57% | 22.77% | 46.66% | +0.13 | 11 |
| 2011-05-07 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1503.07 | 1499.22 | 30.52% | 22.70% | 46.78% | -1.14 | 11 |
| 2011-05-13 | FC New York | L 0-1 | 1501.93 | 1495.43 | 48.68% | 21.58% | 29.74% | -1.63 | 11 |
| 2011-05-21 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-3 | 1500.30 | 1503.72 | 29.96% | 21.92% | 48.11% | -3.03 | 11 |
| 2011-05-24 | Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1497.27 | 1514.71 | 44.36% | 23.96% | 31.68% | +1.11 | 14 |
| 2011-05-28 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1498.38 | 1497.43 | 47.66% | 22.19% | 30.15% | +1.06 | 17 |
| 2011-06-03 | @ FC New York | T 1-1 | 1499.44 | 1494.38 | 30.62% | 22.82% | 46.56% | +0.11 | 18 |
| 2011-06-04 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-1 | 1499.55 | 1498.01 | 30.34% | 22.46% | 47.20% | -1.12 | 18 |
| 2011-06-17 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1498.43 | 1482.62 | 50.43% | 20.47% | 29.10% | +1.06 | 21 |
| 2011-06-24 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-0 | 1499.49 | 1503.40 | 29.93% | 21.87% | 48.20% | +3.06 | 24 |
| 2011-06-25 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-2 | 1502.55 | 1484.03 | 50.94% | 20.14% | 28.92% | -3.17 | 24 |
| 2011-07-01 | Los Angeles Blues | T 0-0 | 1499.38 | 1502.25 | 46.96% | 22.60% | 30.44% | -0.13 | 25 |
| 2011-07-09 | Orlando City SC | W 1-0 | 1499.25 | 1517.42 | 44.23% | 24.02% | 31.75% | +1.19 | 28 |
| 2011-07-14 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-1 | 1500.44 | 1504.92 | 46.67% | 22.76% | 30.57% | +1.07 | 31 |
| 2011-07-23 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 2-2 | 1501.51 | 1473.36 | 32.72% | 24.76% | 42.52% | +0.05 | 32 |
| 2011-07-30 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1501.56 | 1511.21 | 45.74% | 23.27% | 30.99% | -1.57 | 32 |
| 2011-08-03 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1499.99 | 1517.26 | 29.00% | 20.29% | 50.70% | -1.06 | 32 |
| 2011-08-06 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1498.93 | 1518.31 | 28.87% | 20.03% | 51.10% | -0.98 | 32 |
| 2011-08-12 | Charlotte Eagles | W 4-3 | 1497.95 | 1505.10 | 46.19% | 23.03% | 30.79% | +1.00 | 35 |
| 2011-04-09 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 30.22% | 22.30% | 47.48% | -1.12 | 0 |
| 2011-04-16 | Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1498.88 | 1500.98 | 47.10% | 22.52% | 30.38% | -1.60 | 0 |
| 2011-04-23 | FC New York | T 0-0 | 1497.28 | 1496.91 | 47.55% | 22.26% | 30.19% | -0.15 | 1 |
| 2011-04-29 | Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1497.13 | 1501.58 | 46.67% | 22.76% | 30.57% | -1.50 | 1 |
| 2011-05-12 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1495.63 | 1499.90 | 29.90% | 21.83% | 48.27% | -1.04 | 1 |
| 2011-05-14 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1494.59 | 1500.94 | 29.75% | 21.60% | 48.66% | +1.54 | 4 |
| 2011-05-20 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1496.13 | 1497.99 | 47.15% | 22.49% | 30.36% | +2.13 | 7 |
| 2011-05-28 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 1-1 | 1498.26 | 1487.11 | 31.12% | 23.41% | 45.47% | +0.10 | 8 |
| 2011-06-02 | @ Orlando City SC | T 0-0 | 1498.36 | 1511.58 | 29.27% | 20.79% | 49.94% | +0.17 | 9 |
| 2011-06-11 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 3-0 | 1498.53 | 1506.40 | 46.06% | 23.10% | 30.85% | +3.15 | 12 |
| 2011-06-18 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-0 | 1501.68 | 1481.56 | 51.24% | 19.94% | 28.82% | +1.97 | 15 |
| 2011-06-24 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-0 | 1503.65 | 1486.02 | 50.77% | 20.25% | 28.98% | +1.99 | 18 |
| 2011-07-02 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-4 | 1505.64 | 1503.82 | 30.36% | 22.49% | 47.15% | -4.03 | 18 |
| 2011-07-04 | @ FC New York | W 3-1 | 1501.61 | 1496.30 | 30.64% | 22.85% | 46.52% | +2.59 | 21 |
| 2011-07-08 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1504.20 | 1513.25 | 29.56% | 21.28% | 49.16% | +1.56 | 24 |
| 2011-07-09 | Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1505.76 | 1511.70 | 46.40% | 22.91% | 30.69% | -1.50 | 24 |
| 2011-07-15 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 1-1 | 1504.26 | 1507.72 | 46.85% | 22.66% | 30.49% | -0.12 | 25 |
| 2011-07-22 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 1-0 | 1504.14 | 1505.70 | 47.20% | 22.46% | 30.34% | +1.12 | 28 |
| 2011-07-23 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-3 | 1505.26 | 1504.57 | 30.27% | 22.37% | 47.36% | -3.07 | 28 |
| 2011-07-29 | Rochester Rhinos | T 2-2 | 1502.19 | 1511.13 | 45.86% | 23.20% | 30.93% | -0.08 | 29 |
| 2011-08-05 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 3-0 | 1502.11 | 1512.78 | 29.44% | 21.09% | 49.46% | +4.52 | 32 |
| 2011-08-06 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 2-2 | 1506.63 | 1491.56 | 31.47% | 23.76% | 44.77% | +0.07 | 33 |
| 2011-08-10 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-1 | 1506.70 | 1508.61 | 47.14% | 22.50% | 30.37% | -1.60 | 33 |
| 2011-08-12 | @ Charleston Battery | L 3-4 | 1505.10 | 1497.95 | 30.79% | 23.03% | 46.19% | -1.00 | 33 |
| 2011-04-16 | Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1500.00 | 1501.12 | 47.28% | 22.41% | 30.31% | -1.52 | 0 |
| 2011-04-23 | Rochester Rhinos | L 2-3 | 1498.48 | 1497.78 | 47.61% | 22.22% | 30.17% | -1.44 | 0 |
| 2011-04-30 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-6 | 1497.04 | 1505.32 | 45.98% | 23.14% | 30.88% | -8.27 | 0 |
| 2011-05-07 | Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1488.77 | 1504.08 | 44.73% | 23.78% | 31.49% | -1.55 | 0 |
| 2011-05-20 | Los Angeles Blues | T 1-1 | 1487.22 | 1499.40 | 45.29% | 23.50% | 31.21% | -0.11 | 1 |
| 2011-05-28 | Charlotte Eagles | T 1-1 | 1487.11 | 1498.26 | 45.47% | 23.41% | 31.12% | -0.10 | 2 |
| 2011-06-04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-1 | 1487.01 | 1493.13 | 46.37% | 22.93% | 30.70% | +1.08 | 5 |
| 2011-06-08 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-4 | 1488.09 | 1499.13 | 29.42% | 21.05% | 49.53% | -2.49 | 5 |
| 2011-06-10 | @ FC New York | L 0-3 | 1485.60 | 1494.26 | 29.58% | 21.33% | 49.09% | -2.98 | 5 |
| 2011-06-17 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1482.62 | 1498.43 | 29.10% | 20.47% | 50.43% | -1.06 | 5 |
| 2011-06-18 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1481.56 | 1501.68 | 28.82% | 19.94% | 51.24% | -1.97 | 5 |
| 2011-06-25 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1479.59 | 1507.01 | 28.37% | 19.00% | 52.63% | -1.02 | 5 |
| 2011-07-04 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-3 | 1478.57 | 1511.63 | 28.03% | 18.26% | 53.71% | -1.63 | 5 |
| 2011-07-08 | @ Orlando City SC | T 0-0 | 1476.94 | 1517.64 | 27.59% | 17.23% | 55.18% | +0.23 | 6 |
| 2011-07-10 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 2-2 | 1477.17 | 1507.85 | 28.17% | 18.57% | 53.26% | +0.14 | 7 |
| 2011-07-15 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 1-1 | 1477.31 | 1500.74 | 28.61% | 19.52% | 51.87% | +0.17 | 8 |
| 2011-07-17 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 1-4 | 1477.48 | 1500.57 | 28.63% | 19.56% | 51.81% | -2.38 | 8 |
| 2011-07-20 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-3 | 1475.10 | 1490.45 | 29.13% | 20.53% | 50.34% | -1.74 | 8 |
| 2011-07-23 | Charleston Battery | T 2-2 | 1473.36 | 1501.51 | 42.52% | 24.76% | 32.72% | -0.05 | 9 |
| 2011-07-27 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 2-3 | 1473.31 | 1509.01 | 41.26% | 25.21% | 33.53% | -1.32 | 9 |
| 2011-07-31 | FC New York | W 2-0 | 1471.99 | 1485.09 | 45.12% | 23.59% | 31.29% | +2.21 | 12 |
| 2011-08-06 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-3 | 1474.20 | 1510.37 | 27.85% | 17.84% | 54.31% | -2.70 | 12 |
| 2011-08-10 | FC New York | L 0-5 | 1471.50 | 1484.23 | 45.19% | 23.55% | 31.26% | -6.89 | 12 |
| 2011-08-13 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1464.61 | 1509.67 | 39.76% | 25.62% | 34.62% | -1.35 | 12 |
| 2011-04-09 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-3 | 1500.00 | 1497.89 | 30.38% | 22.52% | 47.10% | -3.09 | 0 |
| 2011-04-23 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 0-0 | 1496.91 | 1497.28 | 30.19% | 22.26% | 47.55% | +0.14 | 1 |
| 2011-04-30 | Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1497.05 | 1502.58 | 46.48% | 22.87% | 30.65% | -1.50 | 1 |
| 2011-05-07 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 1-1 | 1495.55 | 1498.88 | 46.88% | 22.64% | 30.48% | -0.12 | 2 |
| 2011-05-13 | @ Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1495.43 | 1501.93 | 29.74% | 21.58% | 48.68% | +1.64 | 5 |
| 2011-05-14 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-3 | 1497.07 | 1501.92 | 29.86% | 21.76% | 48.38% | -1.80 | 5 |
| 2011-05-21 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-2 | 1495.27 | 1497.18 | 30.07% | 22.09% | 47.84% | -2.10 | 5 |
| 2011-05-28 | @ Richmond Kickers | T 2-2 | 1493.17 | 1511.45 | 28.94% | 20.17% | 50.89% | +0.12 | 6 |
| 2011-05-30 | Rochester Rhinos | W 2-1 | 1493.29 | 1501.10 | 46.07% | 23.09% | 30.84% | +1.09 | 9 |
| 2011-06-03 | Charleston Battery | T 1-1 | 1494.38 | 1499.44 | 46.56% | 22.82% | 30.62% | -0.12 | 10 |
| 2011-06-10 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 3-0 | 1494.26 | 1485.60 | 49.09% | 21.33% | 29.58% | +2.98 | 13 |
| 2011-06-12 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1497.24 | 1511.33 | 44.95% | 23.67% | 31.38% | -2.94 | 13 |
| 2011-06-24 | Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1494.30 | 1512.60 | 44.21% | 24.03% | 31.76% | -0.10 | 14 |
| 2011-07-01 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1494.20 | 1491.89 | 47.91% | 22.05% | 30.04% | +2.10 | 17 |
| 2011-07-04 | Charlotte Eagles | L 1-3 | 1496.30 | 1501.61 | 46.52% | 22.85% | 30.64% | -2.60 | 17 |
| 2011-07-08 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 1-3 | 1493.70 | 1507.51 | 29.23% | 20.72% | 50.05% | -1.75 | 17 |
| 2011-07-09 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-2 | 1491.95 | 1489.25 | 30.43% | 22.58% | 46.99% | -1.06 | 17 |
| 2011-07-16 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1490.89 | 1490.32 | 47.59% | 22.23% | 30.18% | -0.13 | 18 |
| 2011-07-20 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-5 | 1490.76 | 1505.98 | 29.14% | 20.55% | 50.32% | -3.17 | 18 |
| 2011-07-29 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-3 | 1487.59 | 1507.65 | 43.90% | 24.17% | 31.92% | -2.50 | 18 |
| 2011-07-31 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 0-2 | 1485.09 | 1471.99 | 31.29% | 23.59% | 45.12% | -2.21 | 18 |
| 2011-08-05 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 0-0 | 1482.88 | 1508.81 | 28.46% | 19.20% | 52.35% | +0.20 | 19 |
| 2011-08-07 | Rochester Rhinos | W 2-1 | 1483.08 | 1508.26 | 43.02% | 24.56% | 32.42% | +1.15 | 22 |
| 2011-08-10 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 5-0 | 1484.23 | 1471.50 | 31.26% | 23.55% | 45.19% | +6.89 | 25 |
| 2011-04-23 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-1 | 1500.00 | 1498.95 | 30.30% | 22.41% | 47.29% | -1.12 | 0 |
| 2011-05-07 | @ FC New York | T 1-1 | 1498.88 | 1495.55 | 30.48% | 22.64% | 46.88% | +0.12 | 1 |
| 2011-05-10 | Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1499.00 | 1500.35 | 47.24% | 22.44% | 30.32% | +1.12 | 4 |
| 2011-05-14 | Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1500.12 | 1514.61 | 44.88% | 23.71% | 31.41% | -0.10 | 5 |
| 2011-05-22 | Orlando City SC | L 1-3 | 1500.02 | 1506.85 | 46.24% | 23.00% | 30.76% | -2.59 | 5 |
| 2011-05-28 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1497.43 | 1498.38 | 30.15% | 22.19% | 47.66% | -1.05 | 5 |
| 2011-05-31 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 4-2 | 1496.38 | 1494.75 | 47.78% | 22.12% | 30.10% | +1.63 | 8 |
| 2011-06-04 | Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1498.01 | 1499.55 | 47.20% | 22.46% | 30.34% | +1.12 | 11 |
| 2011-06-08 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 4-1 | 1499.13 | 1488.09 | 49.53% | 21.05% | 29.42% | +2.49 | 14 |
| 2011-06-11 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1501.62 | 1501.61 | 30.22% | 22.30% | 47.48% | -1.12 | 14 |
| 2011-06-17 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 1-0 | 1500.50 | 1514.26 | 29.24% | 20.72% | 50.04% | +1.67 | 17 |
| 2011-06-24 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 1-1 | 1502.17 | 1503.91 | 30.09% | 22.11% | 47.80% | +0.13 | 18 |
| 2011-06-26 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1502.30 | 1503.78 | 30.11% | 22.14% | 47.76% | +1.52 | 21 |
| 2011-07-02 | Charlotte Eagles | W 4-0 | 1503.82 | 1505.64 | 47.15% | 22.49% | 30.36% | +4.03 | 24 |
| 2011-07-10 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 2-2 | 1507.85 | 1477.17 | 53.26% | 18.57% | 28.17% | -0.13 | 25 |
| 2011-07-15 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 1-1 | 1507.72 | 1504.26 | 30.49% | 22.66% | 46.85% | +0.12 | 26 |
| 2011-07-16 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-3 | 1507.84 | 1503.85 | 30.53% | 22.71% | 46.76% | -1.86 | 26 |
| 2011-07-20 | FC New York | W 5-1 | 1505.98 | 1490.76 | 50.32% | 20.55% | 29.14% | +3.17 | 29 |
| 2011-07-23 | Los Angeles Blues | T 1-1 | 1509.15 | 1504.52 | 48.34% | 21.79% | 29.87% | -0.14 | 30 |
| 2011-07-27 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 3-2 | 1509.01 | 1473.31 | 33.53% | 25.21% | 41.26% | +1.32 | 33 |
| 2011-07-30 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1510.33 | 1510.15 | 47.52% | 22.28% | 30.21% | -1.52 | 33 |
| 2011-08-05 | FC New York | T 0-0 | 1508.81 | 1482.88 | 52.35% | 19.20% | 28.46% | -0.20 | 34 |
| 2011-08-10 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1508.61 | 1506.70 | 30.37% | 22.50% | 47.14% | +1.61 | 37 |
| 2011-08-12 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-4 | 1510.22 | 1519.30 | 29.56% | 21.28% | 49.16% | -3.89 | 37 |
| 2011-04-17 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-1 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 30.22% | 22.30% | 47.48% | +1.52 | 3 |
| 2011-05-01 | Antigua Barracuda FC | L 0-1 | 1501.52 | 1498.48 | 48.04% | 21.97% | 29.99% | -1.62 | 3 |
| 2011-05-12 | Charlotte Eagles | W 2-1 | 1499.90 | 1495.63 | 48.27% | 21.83% | 29.90% | +1.04 | 6 |
| 2011-05-14 | Charlotte Eagles | L 1-2 | 1500.94 | 1494.59 | 48.66% | 21.60% | 29.75% | -1.54 | 6 |
| 2011-05-20 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 1-1 | 1499.40 | 1487.22 | 31.21% | 23.50% | 45.29% | +0.10 | 7 |
| 2011-05-22 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-0 | 1499.50 | 1499.28 | 30.24% | 22.32% | 47.44% | +4.41 | 10 |
| 2011-06-24 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 1-1 | 1503.91 | 1502.17 | 47.80% | 22.11% | 30.09% | -0.13 | 11 |
| 2011-06-26 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1503.78 | 1502.30 | 47.76% | 22.14% | 30.11% | -1.53 | 11 |
| 2011-07-01 | @ Charleston Battery | T 0-0 | 1502.25 | 1499.38 | 30.44% | 22.60% | 46.96% | +0.14 | 12 |
| 2011-07-02 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 2-4 | 1502.39 | 1500.33 | 30.38% | 22.51% | 47.11% | -1.65 | 12 |
| 2011-07-15 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 1-1 | 1500.74 | 1477.31 | 51.87% | 19.52% | 28.61% | -0.17 | 13 |
| 2011-07-17 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 4-1 | 1500.57 | 1477.48 | 51.81% | 19.56% | 28.63% | +2.39 | 16 |
| 2011-07-22 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1502.96 | 1514.21 | 29.40% | 21.02% | 49.57% | +1.56 | 19 |
| 2011-07-23 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 1-1 | 1504.52 | 1509.15 | 29.87% | 21.79% | 48.34% | +0.13 | 20 |
| 2011-07-29 | Antigua Barracuda FC | L 1-2 | 1504.65 | 1483.71 | 51.40% | 19.84% | 28.77% | -1.59 | 20 |
| 2011-07-31 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-1 | 1503.06 | 1485.30 | 50.79% | 20.23% | 28.97% | +0.99 | 23 |
| 2011-08-02 | Antigua Barracuda FC | T 1-1 | 1504.05 | 1484.31 | 51.17% | 19.99% | 28.84% | -0.16 | 24 |
| 2011-08-05 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1503.89 | 1511.67 | 29.65% | 21.43% | 48.92% | -1.03 | 24 |
| 2011-08-07 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | L 0-3 | 1502.86 | 1484.48 | 31.77% | 24.04% | 44.19% | -3.26 | 24 |
| 2011-08-12 | Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1499.60 | 1516.11 | 44.52% | 23.88% | 31.60% | -0.11 | 25 |
| 2011-08-14 | Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1499.49 | 1516.21 | 44.48% | 23.90% | 31.61% | -0.10 | 26 |
| 2011-04-02 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 30.22% | 22.30% | 47.48% | -2.11 | 0 |
| 2011-04-09 | FC New York | W 3-0 | 1497.89 | 1500.00 | 47.10% | 22.52% | 30.38% | +3.09 | 3 |
| 2011-04-16 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1500.98 | 1498.88 | 30.38% | 22.52% | 47.10% | +1.60 | 6 |
| 2011-04-30 | @ FC New York | W 2-1 | 1502.58 | 1497.05 | 30.65% | 22.87% | 46.48% | +1.50 | 9 |
| 2011-05-07 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1504.08 | 1488.77 | 31.49% | 23.78% | 44.73% | +1.55 | 12 |
| 2011-05-14 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 1-0 | 1505.63 | 1498.27 | 48.84% | 21.48% | 29.68% | +1.09 | 15 |
| 2011-05-20 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 0-0 | 1506.72 | 1501.35 | 30.64% | 22.85% | 46.51% | +0.13 | 16 |
| 2011-05-22 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 3-1 | 1506.85 | 1500.02 | 30.76% | 23.00% | 46.24% | +2.59 | 19 |
| 2011-05-25 | Richmond Kickers | W 2-0 | 1509.44 | 1513.59 | 46.73% | 22.73% | 30.54% | +2.14 | 22 |
| 2011-06-02 | Charlotte Eagles | T 0-0 | 1511.58 | 1498.36 | 49.94% | 20.79% | 29.27% | -0.17 | 23 |
| 2011-06-04 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | W 4-2 | 1511.41 | 1506.98 | 30.57% | 22.76% | 46.68% | +2.33 | 26 |
| 2011-06-10 | Antigua Barracuda FC | L 1-2 | 1513.74 | 1494.27 | 51.12% | 20.02% | 28.86% | -1.59 | 26 |
| 2011-06-18 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 1-1 | 1512.15 | 1503.25 | 49.13% | 21.30% | 29.57% | -0.14 | 27 |
| 2011-06-24 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-1 | 1512.01 | 1495.86 | 31.56% | 23.85% | 44.59% | +2.53 | 30 |
| 2011-06-26 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-1 | 1514.54 | 1493.33 | 32.03% | 24.26% | 43.70% | +1.44 | 33 |
| 2011-07-01 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1515.98 | 1487.20 | 32.79% | 24.80% | 42.41% | +0.08 | 34 |
| 2011-07-03 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1516.06 | 1509.10 | 30.77% | 23.01% | 46.22% | +1.58 | 37 |
| 2011-07-08 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 0-0 | 1517.64 | 1476.94 | 55.18% | 17.23% | 27.59% | -0.22 | 38 |
| 2011-07-09 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1517.42 | 1499.25 | 31.75% | 24.02% | 44.23% | -1.19 | 38 |
| 2011-07-16 | Rochester Rhinos | W 2-1 | 1516.23 | 1509.26 | 48.77% | 21.52% | 29.70% | +1.03 | 41 |
| 2011-08-03 | Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1517.26 | 1499.99 | 50.70% | 20.29% | 29.00% | +1.05 | 44 |
| 2011-08-06 | Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1518.31 | 1498.93 | 51.10% | 20.03% | 28.87% | +0.99 | 47 |
| 2011-08-12 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 4-0 | 1519.30 | 1510.22 | 49.16% | 21.28% | 29.56% | +3.88 | 50 |
| 2011-04-09 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1500.00 | 1502.11 | 30.06% | 22.07% | 47.87% | -1.05 | 0 |
| 2011-04-23 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 1-0 | 1498.95 | 1500.00 | 47.29% | 22.41% | 30.30% | +1.13 | 3 |
| 2011-04-29 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-3 | 1500.08 | 1501.12 | 30.14% | 22.18% | 47.68% | -1.83 | 3 |
| 2011-04-30 | @ Charleston Battery | T 0-0 | 1498.25 | 1503.09 | 29.86% | 21.77% | 48.38% | +0.16 | 4 |
| 2011-05-06 | Charleston Battery | T 0-0 | 1498.41 | 1502.94 | 46.66% | 22.77% | 30.57% | -0.14 | 5 |
| 2011-05-14 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1498.27 | 1505.63 | 29.68% | 21.48% | 48.84% | -1.09 | 5 |
| 2011-05-21 | FC New York | W 2-0 | 1497.18 | 1495.27 | 47.84% | 22.09% | 30.07% | +2.10 | 8 |
| 2011-05-22 | Los Angeles Blues | L 0-3 | 1499.28 | 1499.50 | 47.44% | 22.32% | 30.24% | -4.41 | 8 |
| 2011-05-28 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 0-0 | 1494.87 | 1506.87 | 45.32% | 23.49% | 31.20% | -0.12 | 9 |
| 2011-05-31 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 2-4 | 1494.75 | 1496.38 | 30.10% | 22.12% | 47.78% | -1.62 | 9 |
| 2011-06-04 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-2 | 1493.13 | 1487.01 | 30.70% | 22.93% | 46.37% | -1.08 | 9 |
| 2011-06-10 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-3 | 1492.05 | 1504.65 | 29.31% | 20.86% | 49.82% | -1.75 | 9 |
| 2011-06-17 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-3 | 1490.30 | 1502.73 | 45.24% | 23.53% | 31.23% | -4.28 | 9 |
| 2011-06-24 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1486.02 | 1503.65 | 28.98% | 20.25% | 50.77% | -1.99 | 9 |
| 2011-06-25 | @ Charleston Battery | W 2-0 | 1484.03 | 1502.55 | 28.92% | 20.14% | 50.94% | +3.17 | 12 |
| 2011-07-01 | Orlando City SC | T 0-0 | 1487.20 | 1515.98 | 42.41% | 24.80% | 32.79% | -0.08 | 13 |
| 2011-07-03 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1487.12 | 1489.79 | 47.00% | 22.58% | 30.43% | +2.13 | 16 |
| 2011-07-09 | FC New York | W 2-1 | 1489.25 | 1491.95 | 46.99% | 22.58% | 30.43% | +1.07 | 19 |
| 2011-07-16 | @ FC New York | T 1-1 | 1490.32 | 1490.89 | 30.18% | 22.23% | 47.59% | +0.13 | 20 |
| 2011-07-20 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 3-1 | 1490.45 | 1475.10 | 50.34% | 20.53% | 29.13% | +1.73 | 23 |
| 2011-07-22 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-3 | 1492.18 | 1508.23 | 29.08% | 20.45% | 50.47% | -2.90 | 23 |
| 2011-07-30 | Richmond Kickers | W 2-0 | 1489.28 | 1512.66 | 43.33% | 24.43% | 32.24% | +2.28 | 26 |
| 2011-08-06 | Charlotte Eagles | T 2-2 | 1491.56 | 1506.63 | 44.77% | 23.76% | 31.47% | -0.07 | 27 |
| 2011-08-13 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1491.49 | 1507.11 | 29.11% | 20.50% | 50.39% | -1.06 | 27 |
| 2011-04-02 | Orlando City SC | W 2-0 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 47.48% | 22.30% | 30.22% | +2.11 | 3 |
| 2011-04-09 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-1 | 1502.11 | 1500.00 | 47.87% | 22.07% | 30.06% | +1.05 | 6 |
| 2011-04-15 | Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1503.16 | 1500.00 | 48.07% | 21.95% | 29.98% | +1.11 | 9 |
| 2011-04-23 | Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1504.27 | 1502.64 | 47.78% | 22.12% | 30.10% | +1.05 | 12 |
| 2011-04-30 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 6-0 | 1505.32 | 1497.04 | 30.88% | 23.14% | 45.98% | +8.27 | 15 |
| 2011-05-07 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-1 | 1513.59 | 1502.94 | 49.46% | 21.10% | 29.45% | +1.02 | 18 |
| 2011-05-14 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 1-1 | 1514.61 | 1500.12 | 31.41% | 23.71% | 44.88% | +0.10 | 19 |
| 2011-05-24 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1514.71 | 1497.27 | 31.68% | 23.96% | 44.36% | -1.12 | 19 |
| 2011-05-25 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-2 | 1513.59 | 1509.44 | 30.54% | 22.73% | 46.73% | -2.14 | 19 |
| 2011-05-28 | FC New York | T 2-2 | 1511.45 | 1493.17 | 50.89% | 20.17% | 28.94% | -0.12 | 20 |
| 2011-06-12 | @ FC New York | W 2-0 | 1511.33 | 1497.24 | 31.38% | 23.67% | 44.95% | +2.93 | 23 |
| 2011-06-17 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-1 | 1514.26 | 1500.50 | 50.04% | 20.72% | 29.24% | -1.66 | 23 |
| 2011-06-24 | @ FC New York | T 0-0 | 1512.60 | 1494.30 | 31.76% | 24.03% | 44.21% | +0.10 | 24 |
| 2011-07-01 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 1-2 | 1512.70 | 1508.03 | 30.59% | 22.78% | 46.63% | -1.07 | 24 |
| 2011-07-04 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 3-1 | 1511.63 | 1478.57 | 53.71% | 18.26% | 28.03% | +1.62 | 27 |
| 2011-07-08 | Charlotte Eagles | L 1-2 | 1513.25 | 1504.20 | 49.16% | 21.28% | 29.56% | -1.55 | 27 |
| 2011-07-09 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 2-1 | 1511.70 | 1505.76 | 30.69% | 22.91% | 46.40% | +1.50 | 30 |
| 2011-07-16 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1513.20 | 1484.72 | 52.83% | 18.86% | 28.30% | +1.01 | 33 |
| 2011-07-22 | Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1514.21 | 1502.96 | 49.57% | 21.02% | 29.40% | -1.55 | 33 |
| 2011-07-30 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-2 | 1512.66 | 1489.28 | 32.24% | 24.43% | 43.33% | -2.29 | 33 |
| 2011-08-06 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 3-0 | 1510.37 | 1474.20 | 54.31% | 17.84% | 27.85% | +2.70 | 36 |
| 2011-08-10 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-0 | 1513.07 | 1512.70 | 30.25% | 22.34% | 47.42% | +3.04 | 39 |
| 2011-08-12 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 0-0 | 1516.11 | 1499.60 | 31.60% | 23.88% | 44.52% | +0.10 | 40 |
| 2011-08-14 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 0-0 | 1516.21 | 1499.49 | 31.61% | 23.90% | 44.48% | +0.11 | 41 |
| 2011-04-15 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1500.00 | 1503.16 | 29.98% | 21.95% | 48.07% | -1.11 | 0 |
| 2011-04-17 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-1 | 1498.89 | 1500.00 | 30.14% | 22.18% | 47.69% | -1.11 | 0 |
| 2011-04-23 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 3-2 | 1497.78 | 1498.48 | 30.17% | 22.22% | 47.61% | +1.44 | 3 |
| 2011-05-07 | Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1499.22 | 1503.07 | 46.78% | 22.70% | 30.52% | +1.13 | 6 |
| 2011-05-10 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-1 | 1500.35 | 1499.00 | 30.32% | 22.44% | 47.24% | -1.12 | 6 |
| 2011-05-14 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1499.23 | 1500.10 | 47.32% | 22.39% | 30.29% | +2.12 | 9 |
| 2011-05-20 | Orlando City SC | T 0-0 | 1501.35 | 1506.72 | 46.51% | 22.85% | 30.64% | -0.13 | 10 |
| 2011-05-27 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 1-1 | 1501.22 | 1506.75 | 46.48% | 22.87% | 30.65% | -0.12 | 11 |
| 2011-05-30 | @ FC New York | L 1-2 | 1501.10 | 1493.29 | 30.84% | 23.09% | 46.07% | -1.08 | 11 |
| 2011-06-03 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-1 | 1500.02 | 1495.86 | 30.54% | 22.73% | 46.73% | +1.50 | 14 |
| 2011-06-05 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | T 2-2 | 1501.52 | 1494.36 | 30.79% | 23.03% | 46.18% | +0.09 | 15 |
| 2011-06-11 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 1-0 | 1501.61 | 1501.62 | 47.48% | 22.30% | 30.22% | +1.12 | 18 |
| 2011-06-17 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-0 | 1502.73 | 1490.30 | 31.23% | 23.53% | 45.24% | +4.28 | 21 |
| 2011-06-25 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1507.01 | 1479.59 | 52.63% | 19.00% | 28.37% | +1.02 | 24 |
| 2011-07-01 | Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1508.03 | 1512.70 | 46.63% | 22.78% | 30.59% | +1.07 | 27 |
| 2011-07-03 | Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1509.10 | 1516.06 | 46.22% | 23.01% | 30.77% | -1.59 | 27 |
| 2011-07-08 | FC New York | W 3-1 | 1507.51 | 1493.70 | 50.05% | 20.72% | 29.23% | +1.75 | 30 |
| 2011-07-16 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1509.26 | 1516.23 | 29.70% | 21.52% | 48.77% | -1.03 | 30 |
| 2011-07-22 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-0 | 1508.23 | 1492.18 | 50.47% | 20.45% | 29.08% | +2.90 | 33 |
| 2011-07-29 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 2-2 | 1511.13 | 1502.19 | 30.93% | 23.20% | 45.86% | +0.08 | 34 |
| 2011-07-30 | @ Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1511.21 | 1501.56 | 30.99% | 23.27% | 45.74% | +1.57 | 37 |
| 2011-08-05 | Charlotte Eagles | L 0-3 | 1512.78 | 1502.11 | 49.46% | 21.09% | 29.44% | -4.52 | 37 |
| 2011-08-07 | @ FC New York | L 1-2 | 1508.26 | 1483.08 | 32.42% | 24.56% | 43.02% | -1.15 | 37 |
| 2011-08-13 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 1-0 | 1507.11 | 1491.49 | 50.39% | 20.50% | 29.11% | +1.06 | 40 |
| 2011-04-17 | Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1500.00 | 1498.89 | 47.69% | 22.18% | 30.14% | +1.12 | 3 |
| 2011-04-29 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-1 | 1501.12 | 1500.08 | 47.68% | 22.18% | 30.14% | +1.82 | 6 |
| 2011-05-07 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1502.94 | 1513.59 | 29.45% | 21.10% | 49.46% | -1.02 | 6 |
| 2011-05-14 | FC New York | W 3-1 | 1501.92 | 1497.07 | 48.38% | 21.76% | 29.86% | +1.80 | 9 |
| 2011-05-21 | Charleston Battery | W 3-0 | 1503.72 | 1500.30 | 48.11% | 21.92% | 29.96% | +3.03 | 12 |
| 2011-05-27 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 1-1 | 1506.75 | 1501.22 | 30.65% | 22.87% | 46.48% | +0.12 | 13 |
| 2011-05-28 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1506.87 | 1494.87 | 31.20% | 23.49% | 45.32% | +0.11 | 14 |
| 2011-06-04 | Orlando City SC | L 2-4 | 1506.98 | 1511.41 | 46.68% | 22.76% | 30.57% | -2.33 | 14 |
| 2011-06-10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-1 | 1504.65 | 1492.05 | 49.82% | 20.86% | 29.31% | +1.75 | 17 |
| 2011-06-11 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-3 | 1506.40 | 1498.53 | 30.85% | 23.10% | 46.06% | -3.15 | 17 |
| 2011-06-18 | @ Orlando City SC | T 1-1 | 1503.25 | 1512.15 | 29.57% | 21.30% | 49.13% | +0.15 | 18 |
| 2011-06-24 | Charleston Battery | L 0-2 | 1503.40 | 1499.49 | 48.20% | 21.87% | 29.93% | -3.07 | 18 |
| 2011-07-02 | Los Angeles Blues | W 4-2 | 1500.33 | 1502.39 | 47.11% | 22.51% | 30.38% | +1.65 | 21 |
| 2011-07-08 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1501.98 | 1487.66 | 31.40% | 23.69% | 44.91% | +1.56 | 24 |
| 2011-07-10 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-2 | 1503.54 | 1486.11 | 31.68% | 23.96% | 44.36% | +1.38 | 27 |
| 2011-07-14 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1504.92 | 1500.44 | 30.57% | 22.76% | 46.67% | -1.07 | 27 |
| 2011-07-16 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 3-1 | 1503.85 | 1507.84 | 46.76% | 22.71% | 30.53% | +1.85 | 30 |
| 2011-07-22 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-1 | 1505.70 | 1504.14 | 30.34% | 22.46% | 47.20% | -1.13 | 30 |
| 2011-07-23 | Charlotte Eagles | W 3-0 | 1504.57 | 1505.26 | 47.36% | 22.37% | 30.27% | +3.08 | 33 |
| 2011-07-29 | @ FC New York | W 3-1 | 1507.65 | 1487.59 | 31.92% | 24.17% | 43.90% | +2.50 | 36 |
| 2011-07-30 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1510.15 | 1510.33 | 30.21% | 22.28% | 47.52% | +1.52 | 39 |
| 2011-08-05 | Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1511.67 | 1503.89 | 48.92% | 21.43% | 29.65% | +1.03 | 42 |
| 2011-08-10 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1512.70 | 1513.07 | 47.42% | 22.34% | 30.25% | -3.03 | 42 |
| 2011-08-13 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-1 | 1509.67 | 1464.61 | 34.62% | 25.62% | 39.76% | +1.35 | 45 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-08-20 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-3 | 1498.95 | 1523.18 | 37.68% | 0.00% | 62.32% | -1.68 | 0-1 |
| 2011-08-19 | Los Angeles Blues | W 3-1 | 1506.33 | 1499.39 | 59.96% | 0.00% | 40.04% | +1.79 | 1-0 |
| 2011-08-26 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 2-1 | 1508.12 | 1511.94 | 40.48% | 0.00% | 59.52% | +1.53 | 2-0 |
| 2011-09-03 | @ Orlando City SC | T 2-2 | 1509.65 | 1527.84 | 38.50% | 0.00% | 61.50% | +0.12 | 2-0 |
| 2011-08-19 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-3 | 1499.39 | 1506.33 | 40.04% | 0.00% | 59.96% | -1.79 | 0-1 |
| 2011-08-20 | Charleston Battery | W 3-1 | 1523.18 | 1498.95 | 62.32% | 0.00% | 37.68% | +1.68 | 1-0 |
| 2011-08-27 | Richmond Kickers | W 3-0 | 1524.86 | 1516.45 | 60.16% | 0.00% | 39.84% | +2.98 | 2-0 |
| 2011-09-03 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 2-2 | 1527.84 | 1509.65 | 61.50% | 0.00% | 38.50% | -0.12 | 2-0 |
| 2011-08-19 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-4 | 1490.43 | 1508.17 | 38.56% | 0.00% | 61.44% | -3.77 | 0-1 |
| 2011-08-19 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | T 0-0 | 1516.32 | 1511.02 | 41.75% | 0.00% | 58.25% | +0.13 | 0-0 |
| 2011-08-27 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-3 | 1516.45 | 1524.86 | 39.84% | 0.00% | 60.16% | -2.98 | 0-1 |
| 2011-08-19 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 4-0 | 1508.17 | 1490.43 | 61.44% | 0.00% | 38.56% | +3.77 | 1-0 |
| 2011-08-26 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1511.94 | 1508.12 | 59.52% | 0.00% | 40.48% | -1.53 | 1-1 |
| 2011-08-19 | Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1511.02 | 1516.32 | 58.25% | 0.00% | 41.75% | -0.13 | 0-0 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2011-07-29 | 28.77% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 1483.71 | 2 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1504.65 | 1 |
| 2 | 2011-06-10 | 28.86% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 1494.27 | 2 | @ Orlando City SC | 1513.74 | 1 |
| 3 | 2011-06-25 | 28.92% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1484.03 | 2 | @ Charleston Battery | 1502.55 | 0 |
| 4 | 2011-06-17 | 29.24% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1500.50 | 1 | @ Richmond Kickers | 1514.26 | 0 |
| 5 | 2011-07-22 | 29.40% | Los Angeles Blues | 1502.96 | 2 | @ Richmond Kickers | 1514.21 | 1 |
| 6 | 2011-08-05 | 29.44% | Charlotte Eagles | 1502.11 | 3 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 1512.78 | 0 |
| 7 | 2011-07-08 | 29.56% | Charlotte Eagles | 1504.20 | 2 | @ Richmond Kickers | 1513.25 | 1 |
| 8 | 2011-05-13 | 29.74% | FC New York | 1495.43 | 1 | @ Charleston Battery | 1501.93 | 0 |
| 9 | 2011-05-14 | 29.75% | Charlotte Eagles | 1494.59 | 2 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1500.94 | 1 |
| 10 | 2011-06-24 | 29.93% | Charleston Battery | 1499.49 | 2 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 1503.40 | 0 |
| 11 | 2011-05-01 | 29.99% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 1498.48 | 1 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1501.52 | 0 |
| 12 | 2011-06-26 | 30.11% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1502.30 | 2 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1503.78 | 1 |
| 13 | 2011-04-23 | 30.17% | Rochester Rhinos | 1497.78 | 3 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | 1498.48 | 2 |
| 14 | 2011-07-30 | 30.21% | Wilmington Hammerheads | 1510.15 | 2 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1510.33 | 1 |
| 15 | 2011-04-17 | 30.22% | Los Angeles Blues | 1500.00 | 2 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 1500.00 | 1 |
| 16 | 2011-05-22 | 30.24% | Los Angeles Blues | 1499.50 | 3 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1499.28 | 0 |
| 17 | 2011-08-10 | 30.25% | Richmond Kickers | 1513.07 | 2 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 1512.70 | 0 |
| 18 | 2011-04-16 | 30.31% | Charleston Battery | 1501.12 | 2 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | 1500.00 | 1 |
| 19 | 2011-08-10 | 30.37% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1508.61 | 1 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1506.70 | 0 |
| 20 | 2011-04-16 | 30.38% | Orlando City SC | 1500.98 | 1 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1498.88 | 0 |
| 21 | 2011-06-03 | 30.54% | Rochester Rhinos | 1500.02 | 2 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 1495.86 | 1 |
| 22 | 2011-04-29 | 30.57% | Charleston Battery | 1501.58 | 2 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1497.13 | 1 |
| 23 | 2011-06-04 | 30.57% | Orlando City SC | 1511.41 | 4 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 1506.98 | 2 |
| 24 | 2011-07-04 | 30.64% | Charlotte Eagles | 1501.61 | 3 | @ FC New York | 1496.30 | 1 |
| 25 | 2011-04-30 | 30.65% | Orlando City SC | 1502.58 | 2 | @ FC New York | 1497.05 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2011-04-30 | 8.27 | Richmond Kickers | 6 | 1505.32 | 30.88% | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | 0 | 1497.04 | 45.98% | 23.14% |
| 2 | 2011-08-10 | 6.89 | FC New York | 5 | 1484.23 | 31.26% | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | 0 | 1471.50 | 45.19% | 23.55% |
| 3 | 2011-08-05 | 4.52 | Charlotte Eagles | 3 | 1502.11 | 29.44% | @ Rochester Rhinos | 0 | 1512.78 | 49.46% | 21.09% |
| 4 | 2011-05-22 | 4.41 | Los Angeles Blues | 3 | 1499.50 | 30.24% | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1499.28 | 47.44% | 22.32% |
| 5 | 2011-06-17 | 4.28 | Rochester Rhinos | 3 | 1502.73 | 31.23% | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1490.30 | 45.24% | 23.53% |
| 6 | 2011-07-02 | 4.03 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 4 | 1503.82 | 47.15% | Charlotte Eagles | 0 | 1505.64 | 30.36% | 22.49% |
| 7 | 2011-08-12 | 3.89 | @ Orlando City SC | 4 | 1519.30 | 49.16% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 0 | 1510.22 | 29.56% | 21.28% |
| 8 | 2011-08-19 * | 3.77 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 4 | 1508.17 | 61.44% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1490.43 | 38.56% | 0.00% |
| 9 | 2011-08-07 | 3.26 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 3 | 1484.48 | 44.19% | Los Angeles Blues | 0 | 1502.86 | 31.77% | 24.04% |
| 10 | 2011-06-25 | 3.17 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2 | 1484.03 | 28.92% | @ Charleston Battery | 0 | 1502.55 | 50.94% | 20.14% |
| 11 | 2011-07-20 | 3.17 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 5 | 1505.98 | 50.32% | FC New York | 1 | 1490.76 | 29.14% | 20.55% |
| 12 | 2011-06-11 | 3.15 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 3 | 1498.53 | 46.06% | Wilmington Hammerheads | 0 | 1506.40 | 30.85% | 23.10% |
| 13 | 2011-04-09 | 3.09 | @ Orlando City SC | 3 | 1497.89 | 47.10% | FC New York | 0 | 1500.00 | 30.38% | 22.52% |
| 14 | 2011-07-23 | 3.08 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 3 | 1504.57 | 47.36% | Charlotte Eagles | 0 | 1505.26 | 30.27% | 22.37% |
| 15 | 2011-06-24 | 3.07 | Charleston Battery | 2 | 1499.49 | 29.93% | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 0 | 1503.40 | 48.20% | 21.87% |
| 16 | 2011-08-10 | 3.04 | Richmond Kickers | 2 | 1513.07 | 30.25% | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 0 | 1512.70 | 47.42% | 22.34% |
| 17 | 2011-05-21 | 3.03 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 3 | 1503.72 | 48.11% | Charleston Battery | 0 | 1500.30 | 29.96% | 21.92% |
| 18 | 2011-06-10 | 2.98 | @ FC New York | 3 | 1494.26 | 49.09% | Dayton Dutch Lions | 0 | 1485.60 | 29.58% | 21.33% |
| 19 | 2011-08-27 * | 2.98 | @ Orlando City SC | 3 | 1524.86 | 60.16% | Richmond Kickers | 0 | 1516.45 | 39.84% | 0.00% |
| 20 | 2011-06-12 | 2.94 | Richmond Kickers | 2 | 1511.33 | 31.38% | @ FC New York | 0 | 1497.24 | 44.95% | 23.67% |
| 21 | 2011-07-22 | 2.90 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 3 | 1508.23 | 50.47% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1492.18 | 29.08% | 20.45% |
| 22 | 2011-08-06 | 2.70 | @ Richmond Kickers | 3 | 1510.37 | 54.31% | Dayton Dutch Lions | 0 | 1474.20 | 27.85% | 17.84% |
| 23 | 2011-07-04 | 2.60 | Charlotte Eagles | 3 | 1501.61 | 30.64% | @ FC New York | 1 | 1496.30 | 46.52% | 22.85% |
| 24 | 2011-05-22 | 2.59 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1506.85 | 30.76% | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1 | 1500.02 | 46.24% | 23.00% |
| 25 | 2011-06-24 | 2.53 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1512.01 | 31.56% | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 1 | 1495.86 | 44.59% | 23.85% |