1994 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

5th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1989

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Pittsburgh Steelers

3.21 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.79 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

5.49 wins below expected

2 wins · 7.49 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	4	.750	—	316	234	+82	8.79	+3.21
2	Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	340	204	+136	8.94	+2.06
3	Cincinnati Bengals	3	13	.188	9	276	406	-130	5.23	-2.23
4	Houston Oilers	2	14	.125	10	226	352	-126	7.49	-5.49

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	10	6	.625	—	389	327	+62	9.06	+0.94
2	New England Patriots Playoffs	10	6	.625	—	351	312	+39	6.98	+3.02
3	Indianapolis Colts	8	8	.500	2	307	320	-13	6.49	+1.51
4	Buffalo Bills	7	9	.438	3	340	356	-16	8.89	-1.89
5	New York Jets	6	10	.375	4	264	320	-56	7.86	-1.86

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	11	5	.688	—	381	306	+75	9.52	+1.48
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	9	7	.562	2	319	298	+21	8.75	+0.25
3	Los Angeles Raiders	9	7	.562	2	303	327	-24	7.81	+1.19
4	Denver Broncos	7	9	.438	4	347	396	-49	7.64	-0.64
5	Seattle Seahawks	6	10	.375	5	287	323	-36	7.79	-1.79

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	10	6	.625	—	356	314	+42	8.96	+1.04
2	Detroit Lions Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	357	342	+15	7.68	+1.32
3	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	382	287	+95	8.80	+0.20
4	Chicago Bears Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	271	307	-36	7.87	+1.13
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	.375	4	251	351	-100	6.34	-0.34

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	—	414	248	+166	11.36	+0.64
2	New York Giants	9	7	.562	3	279	305	-26	8.15	+0.85
3	Arizona Cardinals	8	8	.500	4	235	267	-32	7.68	+0.32
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	9	.438	5	308	308	0	8.71	-1.71
5	Washington Redskins	3	13	.188	9	320	412	-92	6.41	-3.41

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	3	.812	—	505	296	+209	10.74	+2.26
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	6	317	385	-68	6.94	+0.06
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	6	348	407	-59	6.65	+0.35
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	12	.250	9	286	365	-79	6.47	-2.47

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 27

Kansas City Chiefs 17

Dec 31

Cleveland Browns (1st) 20

New England Patriots 13

Jan 1

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 29

Cleveland Browns (1st) 9

Jan 7

San Diego Chargers 22

Miami Dolphins 21

Jan 8

Conference Championship

San Diego Chargers 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Jan 15

NFC

Wild Card Round

Green Bay Packers 16

Detroit Lions 12

Dec 31

Chicago Bears 35

Minnesota Vikings 18

Jan 1

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 44

Chicago Bears 15

Jan 7

Dallas Cowboys 35

Green Bay Packers 9

Jan 8

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 38

Dallas Cowboys 28

Jan 15

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 49

San Diego Chargers 26

Jan 29

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1687	13	10.74	+2.26	94.26%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1677	12	11.36	+0.64	73.30%	3	8	10	11	13	14	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1604	12	8.79	+3.21	97.57%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1577	11	8.94	+2.06	91.63%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1576	11	9.52	+1.48	85.43%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1575	9	8.80	+0.20	64.12%	2	6	7	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1553	10	9.06	+0.94	76.86%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1549	9	8.75	+0.25	65.16%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1548	10	8.96	+1.04	79.00%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1539	10	6.98	+3.02	96.43%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1527	9	7.68	+1.32	82.60%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1526	9	8.15	+0.85	76.89%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1511	9	7.81	+1.19	80.57%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1504	8	7.68	+0.32	66.79%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1496	7	8.89	-1.89	24.19%	0	6	8	9	10	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1489	7	8.71	-1.71	26.67%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1486	7	7.64	-0.64	47.79%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1476	9	7.87	+1.13	80.21%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1472	7	6.65	+0.35	68.02%	1	4	5	7	8	10	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1442	7	6.94	+0.06	62.14%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1438	8	6.49	+1.51	85.46%	0	3	5	6	8	10	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1426	6	7.86	-1.86	24.52%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1418	6	7.79	-1.79	25.30%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1402	2	7.49	-5.49	0.30%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1397	6	6.34	-0.34	54.23%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1391	3	6.41	-3.41	5.81%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1368	4	6.47	-2.47	15.21%	1	3	5	6	8	10	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1344	3	5.23	-2.23	17.37%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—
Houston Oilers	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	4-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cardinals	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Arizona Cardinals	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	3-0 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.01%	1.12%	1.12%	0.67%	0.45%	0.22%	5.58%
7–13	2.01%	4.91%	6.25%	3.79%	2.68%	1.34%	0.22%	21.21%
14–20	1.12%	6.25%	9.38%	6.70%	2.90%	1.56%	1.12%	29.02%
21–27	1.12%	3.79%	6.70%	4.02%	2.68%	1.34%	0.22%	19.87%
28–34	0.67%	2.68%	2.90%	2.68%	4.46%	0.89%	0.67%	14.96%
35–41	0.45%	1.34%	1.56%	1.34%	0.89%	1.34%	—	6.92%
42+	0.22%	0.22%	1.12%	0.22%	0.67%	—	—	2.46%
Total	5.58%	21.21%	29.02%	19.87%	14.96%	6.92%	2.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.26	20.26	+0.00
SD	9.81	9.81	13.46
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	50	50	+39
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.69	16.69	-2.00
SD	8.32	9.21	14.82
CV	0.57	0.55	—
Max	30	38	+21
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	24.06	-4.25
SD	9.96	12.85	16.55
CV	0.50	0.53	—
Max	34	50	+21
Min	3	5	-39

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	22.25	-1.00
SD	11.86	9.84	14.37
CV	0.56	0.44	—
Max	44	41	+34
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	56.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.94	19.19	-2.25
SD	7.30	12.29	16.27
CV	0.43	0.64	—
Max	27	42	+14
Min	3	6	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	31.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	25.38	-8.12
SD	8.43	7.37	9.23
CV	0.49	0.29	—
Max	34	38	+3
Min	7	14	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	37.50%	43.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	12.75	+8.50
SD	10.04	6.58	14.15
CV	0.47	0.52	—
Max	37	26	+32
Min	7	0	-12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.88	15.50	+10.38
SD	9.45	7.06	12.92
CV	0.37	0.46	—
Max	42	31	+35
Min	10	3	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.69	24.75	-3.06
SD	6.22	11.41	11.30
CV	0.29	0.46	—
Max	34	48	+12
Min	13	9	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	21.38	+0.94
SD	10.12	8.34	9.33
CV	0.45	0.39	—
Max	41	38	+22
Min	3	7	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.88	17.94	+5.94
SD	10.18	11.28	14.28
CV	0.43	0.63	—
Max	40	42	+37
Min	7	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	31.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.12	22.00	-7.88
SD	6.92	10.55	11.00
CV	0.49	0.48	—
Max	31	45	+14
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.19	20.00	-0.81
SD	10.32	8.77	10.73
CV	0.54	0.44	—
Max	45	41	+24
Min	6	6	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	18.62	+1.31
SD	10.87	11.81	15.20
CV	0.54	0.63	—
Max	38	45	+22
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	62.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.94	20.44	-1.50
SD	10.98	8.71	15.59
CV	0.58	0.43	—
Max	48	44	+32
Min	3	13	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.88	22.81	-4.94
SD	6.81	10.48	9.50
CV	0.38	0.46	—
Max	34	37	+16
Min	5	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.31	20.44	+3.88
SD	10.36	10.88	9.51
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	45	42	+20
Min	6	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	19.62	+2.62
SD	10.43	10.05	12.72
CV	0.47	0.51	—
Max	42	41	+28
Min	7	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.94	19.50	+2.44
SD	10.68	9.49	10.29
CV	0.49	0.49	—
Max	41	39	+24
Min	3	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	25.44	-3.69
SD	8.87	8.53	9.92
CV	0.41	0.34	—
Max	37	38	+16
Min	7	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	37.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.44	19.06	-1.62
SD	7.67	8.19	9.43
CV	0.44	0.43	—
Max	31	38	+8
Min	6	10	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	20.00	-3.50
SD	8.26	7.28	11.44
CV	0.50	0.36	—
Max	31	28	+20
Min	6	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.25	19.25	+0.00
SD	10.12	9.48	12.50
CV	0.53	0.49	—
Max	40	33	+32
Min	3	6	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	14.62	+5.12
SD	8.94	9.79	11.18
CV	0.45	0.67	—
Max	38	37	+23
Min	9	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	19.12	+4.69
SD	9.22	10.08	11.57
CV	0.39	0.53	—
Max	37	38	+20
Min	9	6	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%	31.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.56	18.50	+13.06
SD	11.99	8.00	18.08
CV	0.38	0.43	—
Max	50	40	+39
Min	8	3	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	20.19	-2.25
SD	8.43	9.83	14.72
CV	0.47	0.49	—
Max	38	38	+29
Min	9	7	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.69	21.94	-6.25
SD	7.34	10.03	13.50
CV	0.47	0.46	—
Max	26	41	+14
Min	3	9	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	18.75%	43.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	25.75	-5.75
SD	9.90	6.08	11.62
CV	0.49	0.24	—
Max	41	37	+14
Min	7	17	-27

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	12	8.79	+3.21
2	New England Patriots	10	6.98	+3.02
3	San Francisco 49ers	13	10.74	+2.26
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	8.94	+2.06
5	Indianapolis Colts	8	6.49	+1.51

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	2	7.49	-5.49
2	Washington Redskins	3	6.41	-3.41
3	Los Angeles Rams	4	6.47	-2.47
4	Cincinnati Bengals	3	5.23	-2.23
5	Buffalo Bills	7	8.89	-1.89

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	7	Nov 13 – Dec 24	1 in 319
2	New York Giants	6	Nov 21 – Dec 24	1 in 140
3	San Francisco 49ers	10	Oct 9 – Dec 17	1 in 56
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	Nov 6 – Dec 18	1 in 47
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 38

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	11	Oct 3 – Dec 18	1 in 729
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	Nov 13 – Dec 24	1 in 247
3	New York Giants	7	Oct 2 – Nov 13	1 in 209
4	Seattle Seahawks	6	Oct 2 – Nov 13	1 in 84
5	Los Angeles Rams	7	Nov 13 – Dec 24	1 in 46

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	41.79%	33.05%	19.53%	5.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.91%	32.62%	21.80%	6.67%
Houston Oilers	17.00%	26.89%	38.09%	18.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.30%	7.44%	20.58%	69.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	36.34%	26.66%	18.84%	11.63%	6.53%
Buffalo Bills	33.17%	27.08%	19.44%	13.16%	7.15%
New York Jets	16.86%	21.28%	24.04%	21.82%	16.00%
New England Patriots	8.60%	14.81%	21.02%	26.88%	28.69%
Indianapolis Colts	5.03%	10.17%	16.66%	26.51%	41.63%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	39.63%	25.04%	16.82%	12.00%	6.51%
Kansas City Chiefs	24.93%	24.22%	20.52%	17.19%	13.14%
Los Angeles Raiders	13.02%	17.37%	20.99%	22.38%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	11.40%	17.01%	20.83%	24.69%	26.07%
Denver Broncos	11.02%	16.36%	20.84%	23.74%	28.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	33.28%	26.92%	19.06%	13.55%	7.19%
Green Bay Packers	30.75%	25.77%	20.15%	14.72%	8.61%
Chicago Bears	17.02%	20.01%	23.20%	22.43%	17.34%
Detroit Lions	14.47%	19.28%	22.50%	24.64%	19.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.48%	8.02%	15.09%	24.66%	47.75%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	71.63%	18.37%	6.65%	2.64%	0.71%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.17%	32.28%	26.30%	18.64%	9.61%
New York Giants	8.01%	23.62%	27.96%	24.30%	16.11%
Arizona Cardinals	5.43%	18.63%	24.19%	29.14%	22.61%
Washington Redskins	1.76%	7.10%	14.90%	25.28%	50.96%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	81.98%	13.35%	3.74%	0.93%
Atlanta Falcons	7.13%	33.50%	31.50%	27.87%
New Orleans Saints	5.88%	27.69%	32.59%	33.84%
Los Angeles Rams	5.01%	25.46%	32.17%	37.36%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Diego Chargers	18.54%	14.56%	11.28%	10.16%	8.93%	7.47%	6.55%	5.32%	4.88%	4.04%	3.31%	2.48%	1.64%	0.84%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	11.42%	12.08%	11.95%	10.04%	9.93%	9.13%	7.29%	6.99%	6.42%	4.60%	4.18%	2.83%	2.18%	0.96%
Miami Dolphins	13.31%	12.39%	10.81%	9.32%	9.14%	8.22%	7.29%	6.69%	6.26%	4.78%	4.20%	3.30%	2.51%	1.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.65%	11.05%	11.05%	10.13%	9.18%	9.19%	7.63%	6.97%	6.77%	5.52%	4.54%	3.62%	2.37%	1.33%
Buffalo Bills	11.85%	10.90%	10.48%	9.56%	9.13%	8.39%	7.33%	6.88%	6.19%	5.86%	4.85%	3.90%	2.72%	1.96%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.03%	9.33%	8.91%	10.11%	8.63%	7.89%	8.18%	7.18%	6.23%	6.14%	5.73%	4.45%	3.99%	2.20%
New York Jets	4.45%	5.82%	6.41%	6.79%	8.04%	7.72%	8.37%	8.55%	8.14%	8.28%	7.74%	7.83%	6.58%	5.28%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.85%	5.09%	6.08%	6.46%	6.81%	7.27%	8.41%	7.75%	8.25%	8.31%	8.31%	8.42%	8.05%	5.94%
Seattle Seahawks	4.11%	4.81%	5.65%	6.71%	6.55%	7.57%	8.06%	8.22%	8.10%	9.01%	9.32%	8.40%	7.71%	5.78%
Houston Oilers	3.15%	4.21%	5.67%	6.26%	7.12%	7.91%	8.12%	8.92%	10.04%	9.17%	8.54%	8.51%	7.35%	5.03%
Denver Broncos	3.45%	4.65%	5.35%	6.48%	6.21%	6.78%	8.29%	8.22%	8.01%	9.37%	9.16%	8.71%	8.64%	6.68%
New England Patriots	1.89%	2.86%	3.56%	4.34%	4.91%	5.91%	6.77%	7.61%	8.00%	10.07%	10.15%	10.83%	10.92%	12.18%
Indianapolis Colts	1.14%	1.82%	2.17%	2.52%	3.85%	4.45%	5.27%	6.68%	7.43%	8.29%	11.01%	12.42%	14.53%	18.42%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.16%	0.43%	0.63%	1.12%	1.57%	2.10%	2.44%	4.02%	5.28%	6.56%	8.96%	14.30%	20.81%	31.62%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	42.75%	21.87%	12.35%	8.02%	4.82%	3.34%	2.28%	1.72%	1.36%	0.62%	0.38%	0.29%	0.14%	0.06%
San Francisco 49ers	27.85%	25.70%	17.27%	9.17%	6.38%	4.74%	3.15%	1.87%	1.41%	1.03%	0.67%	0.43%	0.19%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	6.23%	11.13%	13.23%	11.53%	10.17%	9.91%	7.87%	7.00%	5.69%	5.22%	4.26%	3.40%	2.73%	1.63%
Green Bay Packers	5.36%	10.50%	12.02%	10.52%	10.94%	9.15%	8.34%	7.37%	6.63%	5.35%	4.94%	3.85%	2.91%	2.12%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.81%	6.91%	9.52%	12.19%	10.86%	9.64%	9.33%	8.00%	7.15%	6.28%	5.47%	4.00%	2.95%	1.89%
New York Giants	3.24%	4.19%	6.43%	9.61%	9.08%	9.62%	10.01%	9.26%	8.20%	8.13%	7.14%	6.36%	5.02%	3.71%
Chicago Bears	2.22%	5.14%	7.32%	7.58%	8.92%	8.07%	8.51%	9.24%	8.20%	7.95%	8.04%	7.11%	6.20%	5.50%
Detroit Lions	1.99%	4.59%	6.11%	7.05%	8.05%	7.99%	7.94%	9.06%	8.98%	8.40%	8.78%	7.37%	7.13%	6.56%
Arizona Cardinals	1.86%	3.18%	4.99%	7.15%	7.84%	7.77%	8.89%	9.06%	9.06%	9.24%	9.39%	7.82%	7.33%	6.42%
Atlanta Falcons	0.75%	1.89%	2.89%	4.82%	6.49%	7.55%	8.82%	8.71%	9.91%	9.45%	9.33%	10.60%	10.41%	8.38%
New Orleans Saints	0.76%	1.57%	2.24%	3.74%	4.97%	7.16%	7.11%	8.02%	9.44%	9.93%	10.13%	11.85%	12.10%	10.98%
Los Angeles Rams	0.38%	1.29%	1.99%	2.96%	4.95%	6.08%	7.06%	7.22%	9.31%	10.15%	10.27%	12.48%	13.14%	12.72%
Washington Redskins	0.41%	0.91%	1.69%	2.80%	3.04%	4.67%	5.67%	6.73%	7.43%	9.51%	10.25%	12.93%	14.64%	19.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.39%	1.13%	1.95%	2.86%	3.49%	4.31%	5.02%	6.74%	7.23%	8.74%	10.95%	11.51%	15.11%	20.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Dallas Cowboys	31.57%	16.36%	11.94%	7.83%	6.24%	4.49%	4.13%	3.31%	2.32%	2.13%	1.79%	1.34%	1.14%	1.12%	0.95%	0.64%	0.71%	0.63%	0.33%	0.27%	0.18%	0.19%	0.15%	0.07%	0.06%	0.05%	0.04%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	19.98%	13.90%	12.80%	9.58%	7.96%	7.01%	4.52%	4.23%	2.99%	3.21%	2.26%	2.30%	1.63%	1.54%	0.96%	1.01%	0.76%	0.79%	0.58%	0.42%	0.38%	0.41%	0.27%	0.19%	0.07%	0.13%	0.08%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers	6.87%	8.75%	7.25%	7.96%	6.16%	6.37%	5.32%	5.42%	4.99%	4.73%	4.02%	4.01%	3.42%	2.85%	2.82%	2.71%	2.50%	2.13%	2.18%	1.82%	1.73%	1.60%	1.25%	0.91%	0.86%	0.67%	0.44%	0.26%
Miami Dolphins	4.43%	6.65%	6.18%	6.57%	5.55%	5.93%	4.86%	4.95%	4.55%	4.91%	4.38%	3.85%	3.94%	3.72%	3.84%	3.43%	3.16%	2.88%	2.56%	2.23%	2.43%	1.90%	1.83%	1.30%	1.29%	1.15%	0.88%	0.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.49%	5.90%	5.74%	6.28%	5.96%	6.06%	5.21%	5.59%	5.16%	5.03%	4.32%	4.55%	4.32%	3.81%	3.73%	2.96%	3.22%	3.52%	2.54%	2.39%	2.19%	1.91%	1.64%	1.59%	0.94%	0.88%	0.67%	0.40%
Minnesota Vikings	3.64%	4.98%	5.59%	5.68%	6.39%	5.70%	5.69%	4.99%	5.06%	4.83%	5.23%	4.30%	4.12%	3.84%	3.50%	3.47%	3.00%	2.94%	2.38%	2.61%	2.41%	2.13%	1.96%	1.38%	1.58%	1.20%	0.80%	0.60%
Buffalo Bills	3.81%	6.25%	5.11%	6.22%	5.00%	5.40%	5.28%	4.88%	5.02%	4.73%	4.44%	4.17%	4.06%	3.64%	3.85%	3.34%	3.14%	2.83%	2.86%	2.88%	2.56%	2.38%	1.84%	1.71%	1.66%	1.36%	0.85%	0.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.76%	5.01%	5.21%	5.70%	5.54%	5.87%	5.20%	5.43%	5.17%	4.51%	4.06%	4.59%	4.42%	4.17%	3.29%	3.45%	3.13%	3.58%	2.99%	2.69%	2.57%	2.24%	1.72%	1.76%	1.43%	1.15%	0.83%	0.53%
Green Bay Packers	3.22%	3.87%	5.87%	5.00%	5.92%	5.73%	5.26%	4.86%	4.89%	5.02%	4.52%	4.37%	4.33%	3.82%	3.93%	3.69%	3.29%	2.99%	3.01%	2.79%	2.18%	2.67%	2.09%	1.80%	1.65%	1.35%	1.12%	0.76%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.60%	5.26%	5.18%	4.84%	4.82%	4.86%	5.13%	5.09%	4.74%	4.36%	4.65%	4.22%	4.32%	3.51%	3.73%	3.43%	3.36%	3.18%	3.25%	2.80%	3.03%	2.49%	2.33%	2.23%	1.97%	1.55%	1.25%	0.82%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.43%	3.23%	4.08%	4.20%	5.04%	4.84%	5.99%	5.48%	4.81%	5.04%	4.94%	4.49%	4.19%	4.43%	3.91%	4.30%	3.47%	3.36%	3.33%	2.95%	2.80%	2.77%	2.35%	1.99%	1.60%	1.19%	1.09%	0.70%
New York Giants	1.70%	2.14%	2.46%	2.83%	3.13%	3.43%	4.61%	4.37%	4.37%	4.26%	5.00%	4.78%	4.84%	4.67%	4.29%	4.76%	4.12%	4.13%	4.15%	4.08%	3.59%	3.31%	3.24%	3.05%	2.71%	2.44%	2.16%	1.38%
New York Jets	1.29%	2.15%	2.48%	2.94%	3.26%	3.44%	3.73%	3.59%	3.94%	4.03%	4.25%	4.14%	4.41%	4.08%	4.71%	3.95%	4.32%	3.93%	4.26%	4.29%	3.97%	3.78%	3.81%	3.74%	3.55%	2.96%	2.75%	2.25%
Chicago Bears	1.29%	1.63%	2.45%	2.91%	3.54%	3.57%	3.69%	3.71%	4.54%	4.02%	3.98%	4.12%	3.72%	4.52%	4.47%	4.46%	4.09%	4.39%	4.11%	3.89%	4.08%	3.73%	3.81%	3.63%	3.39%	3.17%	3.15%	1.94%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.26%	2.42%	2.63%	2.71%	3.16%	2.97%	3.18%	3.77%	3.54%	3.76%	3.94%	3.57%	4.60%	3.81%	4.05%	4.30%	4.36%	3.90%	4.20%	4.25%	4.06%	3.88%	4.07%	4.34%	4.03%	3.51%	3.05%	2.68%
Seattle Seahawks	0.87%	2.27%	2.08%	2.55%	2.91%	3.11%	3.29%	3.78%	3.65%	3.94%	3.86%	3.82%	4.11%	3.83%	4.44%	4.62%	4.38%	3.63%	4.62%	4.26%	4.72%	4.31%	4.34%	4.08%	3.91%	3.18%	3.17%	2.27%
Detroit Lions	1.16%	1.32%	2.31%	2.47%	3.16%	2.85%	3.54%	3.37%	3.88%	3.72%	4.21%	3.82%	4.02%	4.12%	4.26%	4.37%	4.40%	4.49%	4.15%	4.31%	4.26%	4.38%	3.99%	3.90%	3.70%	3.43%	3.56%	2.85%
Houston Oilers	0.76%	1.49%	1.74%	2.39%	2.66%	2.89%	3.06%	3.42%	3.68%	3.56%	4.09%	4.05%	3.87%	4.50%	4.53%	4.35%	4.90%	4.76%	4.38%	4.49%	4.15%	4.63%	4.11%	4.20%	3.95%	3.90%	3.10%	2.39%
Arizona Cardinals	1.03%	1.23%	1.83%	2.14%	2.34%	2.70%	3.62%	3.32%	3.65%	3.96%	3.96%	4.00%	4.27%	4.25%	4.45%	4.48%	4.36%	4.54%	4.52%	4.76%	4.37%	4.34%	4.43%	3.78%	4.20%	3.23%	3.66%	2.58%
Denver Broncos	0.85%	1.77%	2.01%	2.37%	2.90%	3.03%	3.13%	3.31%	3.28%	3.32%	3.79%	3.77%	4.13%	3.98%	4.43%	4.16%	4.25%	4.05%	4.56%	4.73%	4.79%	4.50%	4.10%	4.36%	4.22%	3.94%	3.47%	2.80%
Atlanta Falcons	0.37%	0.56%	0.86%	1.25%	1.29%	1.74%	2.24%	2.63%	2.97%	3.02%	3.25%	3.55%	3.80%	4.49%	4.02%	4.51%	4.52%	5.10%	4.34%	4.60%	4.80%	5.02%	5.17%	5.86%	5.27%	5.28%	4.95%	4.54%
New England Patriots	0.40%	0.95%	1.21%	1.47%	1.67%	2.05%	1.96%	2.26%	2.83%	2.75%	2.90%	2.81%	3.74%	3.32%	3.83%	3.69%	4.52%	4.18%	4.56%	5.02%	4.91%	5.36%	5.35%	5.50%	5.67%	5.13%	6.22%	5.74%
New Orleans Saints	0.44%	0.48%	0.65%	0.81%	1.19%	1.22%	1.96%	1.75%	2.27%	2.38%	2.72%	3.56%	3.34%	3.99%	3.39%	3.91%	4.29%	4.96%	4.71%	4.95%	4.60%	5.86%	5.50%	6.48%	5.93%	6.69%	5.75%	6.22%
Los Angeles Rams	0.16%	0.31%	0.58%	0.66%	1.12%	1.18%	1.21%	1.72%	1.97%	2.46%	2.39%	3.25%	2.94%	3.61%	3.38%	3.75%	4.17%	4.86%	4.54%	5.09%	5.25%	5.69%	5.95%	5.93%	6.68%	7.29%	6.57%	7.29%
Indianapolis Colts	0.23%	0.51%	0.57%	1.14%	1.10%	1.20%	1.16%	1.32%	1.91%	2.14%	2.26%	2.37%	2.43%	2.90%	3.13%	3.69%	3.99%	3.56%	4.59%	4.43%	5.33%	5.51%	6.21%	6.31%	6.90%	7.35%	8.48%	9.28%
Washington Redskins	0.17%	0.28%	0.53%	0.48%	0.94%	1.03%	1.17%	1.38%	1.60%	1.63%	2.04%	2.57%	2.43%	3.15%	3.33%	3.32%	3.81%	3.79%	4.80%	4.87%	5.20%	5.11%	6.14%	6.86%	6.91%	7.99%	9.20%	9.27%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.21%	0.27%	0.54%	0.77%	0.83%	0.99%	1.39%	1.49%	1.49%	1.82%	1.91%	2.34%	2.23%	2.92%	3.11%	3.14%	3.32%	4.11%	4.48%	4.71%	5.46%	5.04%	6.19%	5.89%	7.56%	8.07%	9.38%	10.34%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.25%	0.22%	0.34%	0.47%	0.58%	0.73%	0.73%	0.84%	1.29%	1.23%	1.41%	1.67%	2.11%	2.46%	2.79%	3.02%	3.42%	4.00%	4.86%	6.16%	7.16%	8.31%	11.76%	13.33%	20.67%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	18.54%	13.54%	7.55%	12.86%	10.05%	8.07%	29.39%
Miami Dolphins	13.31%	12.63%	10.40%	9.60%	9.11%	8.01%	36.94%
Buffalo Bills	11.85%	11.21%	10.11%	9.41%	9.27%	8.43%	39.72%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	11.42%	12.83%	17.54%	7.32%	8.41%	8.10%	34.38%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.03%	8.38%	5.52%	12.24%	9.70%	8.63%	44.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.65%	11.93%	16.33%	7.35%	7.81%	8.16%	37.77%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.85%	4.57%	3.60%	7.98%	7.47%	7.69%	63.84%
New York Jets	4.45%	6.10%	6.31%	6.36%	7.86%	7.91%	61.01%
Seattle Seahawks	4.11%	4.19%	3.10%	7.93%	7.43%	8.21%	65.03%
Denver Broncos	3.45%	4.32%	3.25%	7.45%	6.80%	7.21%	67.52%
Houston Oilers	3.15%	4.69%	9.16%	4.71%	5.93%	7.32%	65.04%
New England Patriots	1.89%	3.19%	3.52%	3.76%	5.00%	5.84%	76.80%
Indianapolis Colts	1.14%	1.92%	1.97%	2.39%	3.77%	4.55%	84.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.16%	0.50%	1.64%	0.64%	1.39%	1.87%	93.80%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	42.75%	20.34%	8.54%	12.36%	5.56%	3.55%	6.90%
San Francisco 49ers	27.85%	28.52%	25.61%	3.15%	3.41%	3.41%	8.05%
Minnesota Vikings	6.23%	12.06%	14.99%	9.03%	10.22%	9.60%	37.87%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.81%	4.38%	2.98%	18.71%	12.51%	10.31%	45.30%
Green Bay Packers	5.36%	11.50%	13.89%	7.75%	10.65%	9.19%	41.66%
New York Giants	3.24%	2.88%	1.89%	13.26%	10.45%	10.20%	58.08%
Chicago Bears	2.22%	5.87%	8.93%	5.76%	8.30%	8.12%	60.80%
Detroit Lions	1.99%	5.02%	7.46%	5.45%	7.81%	7.88%	64.39%
Arizona Cardinals	1.86%	2.15%	1.42%	9.85%	8.86%	8.38%	67.48%
New Orleans Saints	0.76%	1.71%	3.41%	3.14%	4.73%	6.87%	79.38%
Atlanta Falcons	0.75%	2.14%	4.24%	3.84%	6.54%	7.23%	75.26%
Washington Redskins	0.41%	0.72%	0.63%	3.43%	3.13%	4.97%	86.71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.39%	1.31%	2.78%	1.82%	3.41%	4.32%	85.97%
Los Angeles Rams	0.38%	1.40%	3.23%	2.45%	4.42%	5.97%	82.15%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	83.86%	83.86%	58.13%	35.73%	24.41%
Dallas Cowboys	85.18%	85.18%	58.96%	35.24%	23.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.46%	48.46%	29.33%	17.74%	7.89%
San Diego Chargers	54.51%	54.51%	31.82%	17.93%	7.55%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	49.88%	49.88%	27.65%	15.11%	6.27%
Miami Dolphins	46.50%	46.50%	25.40%	12.64%	5.08%
Green Bay Packers	41.48%	40.65%	18.33%	7.43%	4.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	38.75%	38.75%	19.99%	9.87%	3.56%
Minnesota Vikings	43.84%	41.89%	17.05%	6.83%	3.28%
Buffalo Bills	40.34%	40.34%	17.98%	7.88%	2.64%
Los Angeles Raiders	26.74%	22.81%	10.48%	4.67%	1.77%
New York Giants	35.80%	23.22%	8.30%	2.83%	1.35%
New England Patriots	18.12%	14.48%	7.04%	3.12%	1.22%
Detroit Lions	28.60%	21.42%	7.73%	2.62%	1.17%
Philadelphia Eagles	44.51%	30.00%	9.66%	3.11%	1.16%
Denver Broncos	24.71%	18.73%	7.80%	3.22%	1.05%
Chicago Bears	31.11%	20.97%	6.55%	1.95%	0.87%
Arizona Cardinals	28.51%	17.12%	5.67%	1.91%	0.86%
New York Jets	28.44%	20.55%	7.79%	2.52%	0.66%
Seattle Seahawks	26.67%	17.87%	6.02%	2.23%	0.51%
Houston Oilers	27.12%	17.24%	5.40%	1.75%	0.47%
Indianapolis Colts	12.68%	7.66%	2.73%	1.11%	0.38%
New Orleans Saints	18.15%	9.38%	3.05%	0.84%	0.29%
Atlanta Falcons	21.85%	10.48%	3.07%	0.81%	0.25%
Washington Redskins	12.16%	4.75%	1.12%	0.28%	0.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12.33%	5.58%	1.24%	0.22%	0.05%
Los Angeles Rams	16.07%	5.50%	1.14%	0.20%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.54%	2.22%	0.57%	0.21%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.42%	1.45%	1.47%	1.57%	0.74%	1.60%	1.50%	1.55%	0.67%	1.48%	1.24%	1.96%	1.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.16%		0.20%	0.08%	0.12%	0.09%	0.14%	0.08%	0.15%	0.04%	0.16%	0.11%	0.14%	0.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.47%	0.38%		1.99%	2.58%	1.04%	2.63%	1.87%	2.16%	1.25%	2.43%	2.45%	2.36%	2.02%
Denver Broncos	1.21%	0.22%	0.81%		1.16%	0.60%	0.85%	0.61%	1.15%	0.57%	1.13%	1.04%	0.88%	0.73%
Houston Oilers	0.95%	0.22%	0.91%	0.70%		0.42%	0.91%	0.57%	0.74%	0.56%	0.93%	0.67%	0.82%	1.00%
Indianapolis Colts	0.49%	0.10%	0.40%	0.36%	0.37%		0.42%	0.33%	0.36%	0.16%	0.28%	0.38%	0.49%	0.46%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.49%	0.54%	1.93%	1.29%	1.53%	0.91%		1.04%	2.03%	1.03%	2.12%	1.54%	1.42%	1.47%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.85%	0.24%	1.11%	0.77%	1.10%	0.62%	1.00%		1.33%	0.58%	1.48%	1.16%	1.16%	0.99%
Miami Dolphins	2.20%	0.39%	1.57%	1.84%	1.69%	0.74%	2.15%	1.63%		0.80%	1.98%	1.29%	2.00%	2.28%
New England Patriots	0.86%	0.12%	0.78%	0.72%	0.86%	0.24%	0.98%	0.75%	0.72%		0.72%	0.75%	0.80%	1.10%
New York Jets	1.10%	0.23%	0.87%	0.69%	1.08%	0.24%	1.12%	0.75%	0.63%	0.48%		0.56%	1.06%	1.19%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.38%	0.44%	2.79%	1.95%	2.62%	1.08%	2.22%	2.19%	2.09%	1.14%	2.43%		2.21%	2.34%
San Diego Chargers	2.53%	0.40%	2.15%	1.34%	2.01%	0.99%	1.99%	1.51%	2.50%	1.11%	2.25%	1.85%		1.80%
Seattle Seahawks	1.25%	0.28%	0.77%	0.55%	1.03%	0.37%	0.74%	0.52%	1.15%	0.33%	1.05%	0.73%	0.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.94%	1.50%	0.42%	1.19%	1.37%	0.86%	1.82%	0.75%	1.04%	1.42%	0.63%	0.79%	0.38%
Atlanta Falcons	0.62%		0.81%	0.42%	0.47%	0.64%	0.15%	0.74%	0.24%	0.93%	1.14%	0.63%	0.45%	0.35%
Chicago Bears	1.00%	0.85%		0.57%	0.92%	1.22%	0.81%	1.44%	0.64%	1.50%	2.14%	0.50%	0.55%	0.74%
Dallas Cowboys	1.70%	1.79%	1.90%		1.92%	2.59%	1.29%	2.61%	1.42%	2.26%	2.40%	0.69%	0.65%	0.87%
Detroit Lions	1.37%	1.06%	1.12%	0.86%		1.22%	0.85%	1.60%	0.60%	1.56%	2.16%	0.64%	0.54%	0.83%
Green Bay Packers	2.25%	1.47%	2.34%	1.12%	1.72%		1.53%	2.66%	1.32%	2.67%	3.89%	0.85%	0.96%	1.01%
Los Angeles Rams	0.50%	0.16%	0.34%	0.19%	0.26%	0.34%		0.35%	0.15%	0.34%	0.52%	0.24%	0.13%	0.20%
Minnesota Vikings	2.20%	1.70%	2.08%	1.18%	1.73%	2.29%	1.34%		1.48%	2.55%	3.85%	1.13%	0.94%	1.13%
New Orleans Saints	0.58%	0.22%	0.77%	0.39%	0.44%	0.75%	0.23%	0.81%		0.70%	0.79%	0.58%	0.34%	0.31%
New York Giants	0.95%	1.31%	1.82%	0.84%	1.43%	2.05%	0.99%	2.42%	0.97%		2.19%	0.85%	0.84%	0.44%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.43%	1.62%	2.31%	0.75%	1.82%	2.48%	1.33%	2.46%	1.18%	1.89%		0.94%	0.99%	0.61%
San Francisco 49ers	2.29%	2.60%	2.48%	0.88%	1.71%	2.11%	2.49%	2.27%	2.09%	2.66%	3.28%		1.14%	1.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.36%	0.27%	0.33%	0.14%	0.28%	0.27%	0.28%	0.51%	0.18%	0.33%	0.56%	0.19%		0.18%
Washington Redskins	0.15%	0.27%	0.43%	0.16%	0.30%	0.36%	0.20%	0.55%	0.22%	0.27%	0.36%	0.22%	0.13%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.27%	2.65%	0.97%	1.22%	0.47%	1.75%	1.24%	2.34%	0.63%	1.25%	1.91%	2.09%	1.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.08%			0.05%	0.03%		0.10%	0.04%	0.07%	0.02%	0.04%	0.01%	0.09%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.67%	0.17%		1.51%	1.22%	0.81%	2.85%	1.84%	3.84%	1.09%	1.93%	3.18%	3.75%	1.79%
Denver Broncos	0.83%	0.06%	0.89%		0.58%	0.12%	0.73%	0.50%	1.01%	0.33%	0.49%	0.96%	0.99%	0.31%
Houston Oilers	0.65%	0.04%	0.51%	0.29%		0.18%	0.45%	0.36%	0.72%	0.21%	0.46%	0.42%	0.74%	0.37%
Indianapolis Colts	0.27%	0.02%	0.34%	0.12%	0.25%		0.24%	0.13%	0.32%	0.08%	0.16%	0.31%	0.41%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.95%	0.17%	2.42%	1.04%	1.14%	0.55%		1.39%	2.03%	0.90%	1.08%	2.50%	3.42%	1.40%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.47%	0.09%	1.32%	0.39%	0.55%	0.31%	1.09%		1.14%	0.16%	0.59%	1.10%	1.61%	0.66%
Miami Dolphins	3.62%	0.26%	3.51%	1.48%	1.76%	0.46%	2.21%	1.67%		0.92%	1.89%	3.00%	3.16%	1.46%
New England Patriots	0.80%	0.07%	0.84%	0.47%	0.52%	0.14%	0.66%	0.40%	0.67%		0.38%	0.91%	0.82%	0.36%
New York Jets	0.99%	0.07%	0.88%	0.38%	0.57%	0.09%	0.76%	0.51%	0.87%	0.21%		1.04%	0.87%	0.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.85%	0.17%	3.97%	1.90%	1.35%	0.81%	3.07%	1.53%	3.95%	1.43%	2.11%		3.71%	1.48%
San Diego Chargers	3.43%	0.18%	4.25%	2.03%	2.16%	0.83%	4.25%	2.48%	3.56%	1.28%	1.95%	3.26%		2.16%
Seattle Seahawks	0.75%	0.08%	0.65%	0.30%	0.49%	0.16%	0.60%	0.24%	0.58%	0.18%	0.43%	0.53%	1.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.11%	0.38%	1.79%	0.30%	0.44%	0.08%	0.67%	0.06%	0.25%	0.43%	1.07%	0.06%	0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.09%		0.20%	0.64%	0.26%	0.34%	0.03%	0.43%	0.05%	0.23%	0.28%	0.39%	0.09%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.33%	0.33%		1.13%	0.27%	0.64%	0.18%	0.66%	0.36%	0.46%	0.60%	1.46%	0.03%	0.10%
Dallas Cowboys	4.77%	2.25%	4.76%		4.57%	7.00%	1.13%	8.01%	1.96%	6.42%	8.45%	6.69%	1.58%	1.37%
Detroit Lions	0.30%	0.36%	0.26%	1.59%		0.43%	0.26%	0.94%	0.34%	0.36%	0.69%	2.05%	0.07%	0.08%
Green Bay Packers	0.93%	0.76%	1.00%	3.97%	0.89%		0.58%	1.66%	0.75%	1.02%	1.57%	4.80%	0.12%	0.28%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%		0.10%	0.21%	0.07%	0.14%		0.19%		0.06%	0.07%	0.23%	0.04%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.81%	0.90%	0.91%	3.03%	0.79%	1.63%	0.51%		0.60%	1.01%	1.60%	4.73%	0.24%	0.29%
New Orleans Saints	0.09%	0.05%	0.16%	0.57%	0.15%	0.36%	0.03%	0.47%		0.20%	0.33%	0.56%	0.07%	0.01%
New York Giants	0.25%	0.20%	0.44%	2.63%	0.47%	0.74%	0.13%	0.94%	0.14%		0.52%	1.55%	0.19%	0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.37%	0.23%	0.66%	2.94%	0.58%	1.03%	0.15%	1.10%	0.20%	0.58%		1.51%	0.17%	0.14%
San Francisco 49ers	3.42%	2.13%	5.50%	7.36%	5.28%	9.33%	1.16%	9.48%	1.80%	4.21%	5.64%		1.64%	1.18%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.07%	0.01%	0.15%	0.02%	0.09%	0.09%	0.13%	0.01%	0.07%	0.11%	0.43%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.21%	0.04%	0.15%	0.03%	0.16%	0.06%	0.05%	0.05%	0.26%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.02%	1.17%	0.33%	0.42%	0.08%	1.13%	0.57%	0.65%	0.17%	0.21%	1.11%	1.60%	0.42%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%			0.01%			0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.53%	0.07%		0.83%	0.47%	0.24%	1.83%	1.04%	2.37%	0.77%	0.88%	1.40%	2.95%	0.73%
Denver Broncos	0.36%	0.02%	0.47%		0.10%	0.06%	0.27%	0.15%	0.58%	0.16%	0.14%	0.47%	0.37%	0.07%
Houston Oilers	0.13%		0.18%	0.13%		0.03%	0.20%	0.15%	0.22%	0.04%	0.08%	0.18%	0.30%	0.11%
Indianapolis Colts	0.06%	0.01%	0.13%	0.08%	0.03%		0.12%	0.05%	0.14%	0.01%	0.02%	0.15%	0.26%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.37%	0.05%	1.55%	0.30%	0.43%	0.27%		0.43%	1.37%	0.50%	0.68%	1.74%	0.97%	0.21%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.62%	0.02%	0.84%	0.15%	0.18%	0.08%	0.34%		0.63%	0.23%	0.33%	0.67%	0.51%	0.07%
Miami Dolphins	0.95%	0.07%	1.98%	0.65%	0.48%	0.12%	1.80%	0.86%		0.36%	0.35%	1.77%	2.47%	0.78%
New England Patriots	0.16%	0.01%	0.47%	0.21%	0.13%		0.45%	0.23%	0.34%		0.09%	0.47%	0.46%	0.10%
New York Jets	0.17%	0.01%	0.43%	0.24%	0.06%	0.05%	0.33%	0.11%	0.19%	0.08%		0.35%	0.38%	0.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.29%	0.01%	1.85%	1.03%	0.40%	0.34%	2.24%	1.21%	2.53%	0.77%	1.04%		3.35%	0.68%
San Diego Chargers	2.28%	0.07%	3.08%	0.53%	0.91%	0.32%	1.28%	0.82%	3.32%	0.69%	1.27%	2.93%		0.43%
Seattle Seahawks	0.17%		0.39%	0.09%	0.04%	0.03%	0.12%	0.16%	0.39%	0.13%	0.17%	0.31%	0.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.02%	0.06%	0.35%	0.12%	0.24%	0.01%	0.21%	0.03%	0.07%	0.12%	0.61%	0.06%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%		0.05%	0.25%	0.04%	0.06%		0.05%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.27%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.08%	0.05%		0.63%	0.07%	0.10%	0.01%	0.11%	0.05%	0.15%	0.14%	0.52%	0.01%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	1.09%	0.84%	1.82%		2.16%	4.77%	0.45%	4.74%	0.87%	1.39%	1.77%	14.67%	0.45%	0.22%
Detroit Lions	0.12%	0.07%	0.10%	0.80%		0.14%	0.06%	0.21%	0.07%	0.20%	0.21%	0.62%	0.01%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.29%	0.13%	0.19%	2.52%	0.35%		0.05%	0.49%	0.20%	0.49%	0.55%	2.05%	0.04%	0.08%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%		0.06%		0.02%	0.01%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	0.31%	0.23%	0.28%	2.23%	0.28%	0.60%	0.05%		0.19%	0.46%	0.56%	1.50%	0.04%	0.10%
New Orleans Saints	0.05%	0.02%	0.06%	0.22%	0.03%	0.06%	0.01%	0.03%		0.07%	0.08%	0.19%	0.01%	0.01%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.10%	0.14%	0.52%	0.16%	0.31%	0.01%	0.37%	0.09%		0.14%	0.83%	0.07%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.11%	0.09%	0.24%	0.55%	0.14%	0.45%	0.05%	0.22%	0.08%	0.10%		0.98%	0.09%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	1.61%	0.71%	1.61%	15.49%	1.75%	4.12%	0.24%	3.66%	0.60%	2.49%	2.88%		0.23%	0.34%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.02%	0.07%		0.01%		0.03%		0.01%	0.03%	0.05%
Washington Redskins	0.01%		0.02%	0.07%		0.02%		0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.05%			0.11%		0.04%			0.03%		0.10%	0.08%		0.10%		0.05%			0.04%		0.14%	0.10%		0.02%
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%			0.02%							0.05%	0.01%		0.04%		0.03%			0.02%		0.03%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.03%		0.07%			0.71%		0.11%	0.20%							0.30%		0.04%	0.15%		0.16%			0.78%			0.02%
Chicago Bears			0.04%			0.14%		0.04%			0.01%		0.10%			0.18%		0.02%			0.02%		0.15%	0.16%		0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals										0.01%															0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.21%	0.12%		0.21%			1.78%		0.21%	0.51%					0.04%		0.52%		0.05%	0.29%		0.32%			1.93%		0.05%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys			2.02%		0.06%	3.33%		0.70%			0.48%	0.31%	2.51%	1.02%		2.83%		0.68%			0.72%		3.77%	3.94%		0.63%
Denver Broncos	0.01%			0.01%			0.26%		0.05%	0.10%							0.12%		0.02%	0.08%		0.04%			0.35%			0.01%
Detroit Lions			0.11%		0.01%	0.21%		0.06%					0.09%	0.05%		0.09%		0.06%			0.04%		0.22%	0.16%		0.07%
Green Bay Packers			0.33%		0.01%	0.66%		0.20%			0.08%	0.05%	0.45%	0.25%		0.38%		0.17%			0.14%		0.52%	0.72%		0.13%
Houston Oilers				0.02%			0.15%		0.01%	0.09%							0.08%			0.02%		0.06%			0.03%		0.01%
Indianapolis Colts				0.01%			0.11%		0.02%	0.04%							0.06%		0.02%	0.01%		0.02%			0.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%	0.07%		0.16%			1.26%		0.10%	0.33%					0.01%		0.35%		0.02%	0.09%		0.14%			0.94%			0.01%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.07%	0.04%		0.09%			0.63%		0.08%	0.12%					0.01%		0.10%		0.03%	0.11%		0.09%			0.39%			0.01%
Los Angeles Rams						0.01%										0.01%								0.01%		0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.20%	0.05%		0.12%			1.70%		0.20%	0.45%					0.05%		0.40%		0.08%	0.15%		0.29%			1.34%		0.03%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings			0.37%			0.47%		0.08%			0.08%	0.03%	0.35%	0.15%		0.36%		0.08%			0.11%		0.52%	0.58%		0.10%
New England Patriots	0.05%	0.01%		0.03%			0.40%		0.08%	0.06%					0.01%		0.10%		0.02%	0.02%		0.08%			0.34%			0.02%
New Orleans Saints			0.03%			0.05%					0.01%		0.03%	0.01%		0.04%					0.01%		0.08%	0.02%		0.01%
New York Giants			0.09%			0.13%		0.06%			0.03%	0.02%	0.13%	0.08%		0.23%		0.04%			0.07%		0.19%	0.25%		0.03%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.03%		0.02%			0.18%		0.01%	0.05%							0.08%		0.02%	0.01%		0.05%			0.18%		0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.09%			0.16%		0.03%			0.02%	0.02%	0.15%	0.04%		0.15%		0.07%			0.02%		0.22%	0.17%		0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.16%	0.11%		0.14%			2.47%		0.31%	0.71%					0.03%		0.78%		0.13%	0.32%		0.37%			2.31%		0.03%	0.02%
San Diego Chargers	0.18%	0.08%		0.19%			2.41%		0.26%	0.59%					0.01%		0.66%		0.11%	0.21%		0.30%			2.49%		0.03%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers			2.09%		0.11%	3.54%		0.96%			0.54%	0.30%	2.33%	1.21%		3.11%		0.70%			0.66%		3.99%	4.18%		0.69%
Seattle Seahawks		0.02%		0.01%			0.18%		0.01%	0.08%									0.01%	0.02%		0.03%			0.14%		0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers						0.01%										0.02%							0.01%	0.01%
Washington Redskins			0.01%										0.02%			0.02%					0.01%		0.01%	0.04%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	75.04%	46.52%	29.10%	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	71.49%	35.37%	21.81%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	61.60%	37.02%	15.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	58.23%	27.02%	10.49%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.37%	25.94%	12.51%	5.54%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	56.92%	23.47%	10.73%	3.70%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	63.93%	19.31%	6.90%	3.69%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	66.90%	18.82%	6.74%	3.09%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New England Patriots	37.63%	14.98%	6.63%	2.48%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Kansas City Chiefs	43.08%	15.78%	6.09%	2.35%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Detroit Lions	36.07%	9.18%	2.98%	1.41%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Chicago Bears	33.10%	6.16%	1.49%	0.57%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots
Cleveland Browns (1st)				62.37%
Kansas City Chiefs			43.08%
Miami Dolphins		56.92%
New England Patriots	37.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears				33.10%
Detroit Lions			36.07%
Green Bay Packers		63.93%
Minnesota Vikings	66.90%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns (1st)					14.41%	11.53%
Kansas City Chiefs					15.78%
Miami Dolphins						23.47%
New England Patriots					8.21%	6.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	21.07%	27.30%		13.23%
San Diego Chargers	15.36%		33.45%	9.42%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears						6.16%
Dallas Cowboys			8.94%	14.47%	48.08%
Detroit Lions		3.31%				5.87%
Green Bay Packers		6.38%				12.93%
Minnesota Vikings		18.82%
San Francisco 49ers	26.94%		17.95%	30.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns (1st)		2.71%	2.50%		3.07%	4.23%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.69%			0.93%		3.47%
Miami Dolphins	3.07%			2.00%	5.66%
New England Patriots		1.55%	1.41%		1.63%	2.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.06%		8.83%	2.66%		21.47%
San Diego Chargers	4.61%	5.43%		2.76%	14.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears		0.90%	0.24%	0.35%
Dallas Cowboys	3.29%		2.88%	6.79%		22.41%
Detroit Lions	0.46%	1.19%			0.69%	0.64%
Green Bay Packers	0.92%	2.57%			1.77%	1.64%
Minnesota Vikings			1.11%	1.80%		3.83%
San Francisco 49ers		31.46%	1.97%	3.47%	9.62%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears		0.07%				0.03%	0.05%		0.04%	0.18%	0.20%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.12%		1.82%	0.22%	0.49%			0.35%				2.54%
Dallas Cowboys		2.52%				1.51%	2.51%		1.39%	7.91%	5.97%
Detroit Lions		0.17%				0.08%	0.21%		0.11%	0.46%	0.38%
Green Bay Packers		0.37%				0.20%	0.50%		0.29%	1.29%	1.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.05%		0.78%	0.12%	0.16%			0.23%				1.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.04%		1.35%	0.11%	0.31%			0.23%				1.66%
Minnesota Vikings		0.37%				0.18%	0.33%		0.29%	1.12%	0.80%
New England Patriots	0.05%		0.83%	0.09%	0.15%			0.23%				1.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.36%		5.29%	0.73%	1.32%			1.48%				6.59%
San Diego Chargers	0.30%		3.49%	0.30%	0.78%			1.13%				4.49%
San Francisco 49ers		3.47%				1.74%	3.43%		2.03%	10.29%	8.14%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 29.10% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

40.18%

Win Prob

69.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

67.63%

Win Prob

58.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

35.36%

Win Prob

60.96%

Dallas Cowboys 21.81% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

67.25%

Win Prob

71.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

63.36%

Win Prob

41.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

36.27%

Win Prob

59.92%

Pittsburgh Steelers 15.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

44.32%

Win Prob

63.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

58.00%

Win Prob

60.16%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.79%

Win Prob

39.04%

San Diego Chargers 10.49% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

57.44%

Win Prob

58.77%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

52.63%

Win Prob

39.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.80%

Win Prob

35.55%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 5.54% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.37%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

55.55%

Win Prob

40.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

33.81%

Win Prob

47.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

45.85%

Win Prob

42.26%

Miami Dolphins 3.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.92%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.23%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

52.75%

Win Prob

39.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

44.86%

Win Prob

32.61%

Green Bay Packers 3.69% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

66.96%

Win Prob

30.01%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

37.25%

Win Prob

27.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

34.96%

Win Prob

49.43%

Minnesota Vikings 3.09% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.82%

Win Prob

28.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

36.25%

Win Prob

43.08%

New England Patriots 2.48% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.63%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

54.81%

Win Prob

38.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

30.77%

Win Prob

42.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

45.56%

Win Prob

35.76%

Kansas City Chiefs 2.35% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.08%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

56.98%

Win Prob

38.99%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.98%

Win Prob

36.73%

Detroit Lions 1.41% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

63.94%

Win Prob

24.64%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

39.93%

Win Prob

29.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

32.62%

Win Prob

38.66%

Chicago Bears 0.57% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

18.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

60.40%

Win Prob

21.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

35.09%

Win Prob

40.00%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1994-09-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-14	1506.79	1437.43	52.65%	47.08%	-7.53	0-1
1994-09-11	New York Giants	L 17-20	1499.26	1537.26	51.59%	48.15%	-9.03	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-32	1490.23	1479.11	44.30%	55.44%	-25.33	0-3
1994-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-7	1464.90	1549.99	44.83%	54.90%	+17.54	1-3
1994-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-38	1482.44	1640.29	23.12%	76.62%	-13.84	1-4
1994-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-16	1468.60	1424.19	49.07%	50.67%	+8.87	2-4
1994-10-23	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-28	1477.47	1664.90	31.08%	68.66%	-8.32	2-5
1994-10-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1469.15	1529.36	48.40%	51.34%	+8.99	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-17	1478.14	1581.91	29.10%	70.63%	-9.32	3-6
1994-11-13	@ New York Giants	W 10-9	1468.82	1471.56	42.34%	57.39%	+5.80	4-6
1994-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 12-6	1474.62	1563.18	44.34%	55.40%	+13.71	5-6
1994-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 16-19	1488.33	1505.69	54.55%	45.19%	-9.54	5-7
1994-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 30-12	1478.79	1424.34	50.51%	49.23%	+21.10	6-7
1994-12-11	Washington Redskins	W 17-15	1499.89	1395.12	70.75%	28.99%	+4.15	7-7
1994-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-7	1504.04	1342.97	76.95%	22.79%	+10.57	8-7
1994-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-10	1514.61	1431.28	54.65%	45.08%	-11.04	8-8
1994-09-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-31	1467.82	1499.09	38.39%	61.34%	-6.72	0-1
1994-09-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-13	1461.10	1444.96	59.27%	40.47%	+17.36	1-1
1994-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-30	1478.46	1564.28	44.73%	55.01%	-20.22	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1458.24	1461.62	42.25%	57.49%	+15.37	2-2
1994-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 8-5	1473.61	1445.55	46.72%	53.02%	+9.27	3-2
1994-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-13	1482.88	1434.13	63.70%	36.04%	+16.71	4-2
1994-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-42	1499.59	1582.10	45.20%	54.54%	-28.54	4-3
1994-10-23	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-30	1471.05	1488.95	40.23%	59.51%	-14.66	4-4
1994-11-06	San Diego Chargers	W 10-9	1456.39	1597.11	37.11%	62.63%	+6.32	5-4
1994-11-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 32-33	1462.71	1448.58	44.73%	55.01%	-4.52	5-5
1994-11-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 28-32	1458.19	1496.17	37.48%	62.25%	-7.58	5-6
1994-11-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-21	1450.61	1549.47	42.88%	56.85%	+15.20	6-6
1994-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-50	1465.81	1663.39	19.30%	80.43%	-11.73	6-7
1994-12-11	New Orleans Saints	L 20-29	1454.08	1454.38	56.97%	42.77%	-17.26	6-8
1994-12-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1436.82	1555.48	27.37%	72.37%	-5.54	6-9
1994-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 10-6	1431.28	1514.61	45.08%	54.65%	+11.04	7-9
1994-09-04	New York Jets	L 3-23	1552.36	1490.90	65.37%	34.37%	-29.53	0-1
1994-09-11	@ New England Patriots	W 38-35	1522.83	1446.53	53.65%	46.09%	+8.07	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	W 15-7	1530.90	1520.45	44.21%	55.53%	+15.87	2-1
1994-09-26	Denver Broncos	W 27-20	1546.77	1463.03	68.20%	31.54%	+8.44	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-20	1555.21	1474.47	54.28%	45.45%	-14.51	3-2
1994-10-09	Miami Dolphins	W 21-11	1540.70	1552.34	55.36%	44.37%	+14.19	4-2
1994-10-16	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-27	1554.89	1400.32	76.28%	23.46%	-24.37	4-3
1994-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-10	1530.52	1559.88	52.83%	46.91%	+27.64	5-3
1994-11-06	@ New York Jets	L 17-22	1558.16	1482.96	53.49%	46.25%	-12.08	5-4
1994-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1546.08	1528.99	45.15%	54.59%	-16.46	5-5
1994-11-20	Green Bay Packers	W 29-20	1529.62	1563.31	52.21%	47.53%	+14.41	6-5
1994-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-35	1544.03	1468.40	53.55%	46.18%	-20.24	6-6
1994-12-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 42-31	1523.79	1557.20	38.10%	61.64%	+20.65	7-6
1994-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-21	1544.44	1541.41	57.44%	42.30%	-11.61	7-7
1994-12-18	New England Patriots	L 17-41	1532.83	1490.54	62.84%	36.90%	-31.10	7-8
1994-12-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 9-10	1501.73	1432.76	52.60%	47.14%	-5.31	7-9
1994-09-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-9	1477.89	1438.62	62.43%	37.31%	+13.07	1-0
1994-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-30	1490.96	1509.32	40.16%	59.57%	-11.48	1-1
1994-09-18	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-42	1479.48	1514.63	52.00%	47.74%	-27.81	1-2
1994-09-25	@ New York Jets	W 19-7	1451.67	1511.49	34.58%	65.15%	+22.80	2-2
1994-10-02	Buffalo Bills	W 20-13	1474.47	1555.21	45.45%	54.28%	+14.51	3-2
1994-10-09	New Orleans Saints	W 17-7	1488.98	1471.36	59.47%	40.27%	+12.88	4-2
1994-10-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-21	1501.86	1463.55	48.19%	51.55%	-10.90	4-3
1994-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 6-33	1490.96	1516.05	53.44%	46.29%	-28.06	4-4
1994-11-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-6	1462.90	1390.44	53.10%	46.64%	+17.64	5-4
1994-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1480.54	1566.50	31.26%	68.47%	+11.98	6-4
1994-11-20	Detroit Lions	W 20-10	1492.52	1481.57	58.54%	41.19%	+13.17	7-4
1994-11-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 19-16	1505.69	1488.33	45.19%	54.55%	+9.55	8-4
1994-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-33	1515.24	1531.38	40.47%	59.27%	-10.02	8-5
1994-12-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-40	1505.22	1531.44	39.08%	60.66%	-24.04	8-6
1994-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-13	1481.18	1389.03	69.23%	30.50%	+11.55	9-6
1994-12-24	New England Patriots	L 3-13	1492.73	1521.63	52.90%	46.84%	-16.91	9-7
1994-09-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-28	1431.31	1480.31	50.01%	49.73%	-14.29	0-1
1994-09-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-27	1417.02	1532.78	27.70%	72.04%	-11.56	0-2
1994-09-18	New England Patriots	L 28-31	1405.46	1438.46	52.31%	47.43%	-9.16	0-3
1994-09-25	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-20	1396.30	1504.58	28.57%	71.17%	-7.64	0-4
1994-10-02	Miami Dolphins	L 7-23	1388.66	1537.78	35.99%	63.75%	-14.56	0-5
1994-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-14	1374.10	1513.18	25.09%	74.64%	-5.08	0-6
1994-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-37	1369.02	1542.84	21.52%	78.21%	-10.67	0-7
1994-10-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-23	1358.35	1673.21	17.80%	81.94%	-3.13	0-8
1994-11-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1355.22	1463.36	28.59%	71.15%	+12.45	1-8
1994-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 34-31	1367.67	1457.05	44.22%	55.51%	+9.72	2-8
1994-11-20	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-17	1377.39	1409.97	52.37%	47.37%	-10.59	2-9
1994-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-15	1366.80	1503.75	25.33%	74.41%	-3.62	2-10
1994-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-38	1363.18	1575.22	28.13%	71.61%	-13.65	2-11
1994-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1349.53	1494.20	24.49%	75.24%	-6.56	2-12
1994-12-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-28	1342.97	1504.04	22.79%	76.95%	-10.57	2-13
1994-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-30	1332.40	1500.43	33.52%	66.22%	+11.59	3-13
1994-09-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-20	1480.31	1431.31	49.73%	50.01%	+14.29	1-0
1994-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1494.60	1487.93	57.95%	41.79%	-15.49	1-1
1994-09-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 32-0	1479.11	1490.23	55.44%	44.30%	+25.34	2-1
1994-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 21-14	1504.45	1414.81	55.55%	44.19%	+11.82	3-1
1994-10-02	New York Jets	W 27-7	1516.27	1488.69	60.84%	38.90%	+17.59	4-1
1994-10-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 11-8	1533.86	1493.96	48.42%	51.32%	+8.98	5-1
1994-10-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-13	1542.84	1369.02	78.21%	21.52%	+10.67	6-1
1994-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-26	1553.51	1480.25	53.21%	46.52%	-18.62	6-2
1994-11-06	New England Patriots	W 13-6	1534.89	1427.77	71.03%	28.71%	+7.68	7-2
1994-11-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1542.57	1591.22	36.05%	63.68%	+28.04	8-2
1994-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-20	1570.61	1539.82	47.11%	52.63%	-12.59	8-3
1994-11-27	Houston Oilers	W 34-10	1558.02	1437.82	72.54%	27.19%	+13.48	9-3
1994-12-04	New York Giants	L 13-16	1571.50	1482.15	68.89%	30.85%	-12.06	9-4
1994-12-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-14	1559.44	1701.70	24.75%	74.98%	+16.94	10-4
1994-12-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1576.38	1600.17	39.41%	60.32%	-12.60	10-5
1994-12-24	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-9	1563.78	1431.39	73.91%	25.83%	+13.32	11-5
1994-09-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-9	1614.03	1505.22	58.25%	41.49%	+17.30	1-0
1994-09-11	Houston Oilers	W 20-17	1631.33	1525.51	70.88%	28.86%	+5.06	2-0
1994-09-19	Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1636.39	1494.28	74.97%	24.77%	-13.12	2-1
1994-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-7	1623.27	1446.26	67.36%	32.38%	+17.02	3-1
1994-10-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-3	1640.29	1482.44	76.62%	23.12%	+13.84	4-1
1994-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-13	1654.13	1574.75	67.65%	32.08%	+10.77	5-1
1994-10-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 28-21	1664.90	1477.47	68.66%	31.08%	+8.31	6-1
1994-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1673.21	1358.35	81.94%	17.80%	+3.12	7-1
1994-11-07	New York Giants	W 38-10	1676.33	1482.06	80.13%	19.60%	+10.50	8-1
1994-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-21	1686.83	1632.73	50.46%	49.27%	-13.49	8-2
1994-11-20	Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1673.34	1419.91	84.96%	14.78%	+7.33	9-2
1994-11-24	Green Bay Packers	W 42-31	1680.67	1548.90	73.84%	25.89%	+8.69	10-2
1994-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-19	1689.36	1534.27	64.54%	35.20%	+12.34	11-2
1994-12-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-19	1701.70	1559.44	74.98%	24.75%	-16.94	11-3
1994-12-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-16	1684.76	1471.65	71.73%	28.00%	+8.01	12-3
1994-12-24	@ New York Giants	L 10-15	1692.77	1510.98	67.96%	31.78%	-15.35	12-4
1994-09-04	San Diego Chargers	L 34-37	1516.02	1522.98	56.03%	43.71%	-9.81	0-1
1994-09-11	@ New York Jets	L 22-25	1506.21	1520.43	40.74%	59.00%	-7.13	0-2
1994-09-18	Los Angeles Raiders	L 16-48	1499.08	1454.91	63.09%	36.65%	-36.05	0-3
1994-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-27	1463.03	1546.77	31.54%	68.20%	-8.45	0-4
1994-10-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 16-9	1454.58	1507.21	35.53%	64.21%	+17.17	1-4
1994-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-31	1471.75	1537.82	47.55%	52.18%	-8.33	1-5
1994-10-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-15	1463.42	1600.98	25.26%	74.48%	+16.83	2-5
1994-10-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-14	1480.25	1553.51	46.52%	53.21%	+18.62	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1498.87	1435.07	51.86%	47.88%	-12.83	3-6
1994-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-10	1486.04	1450.91	61.87%	37.87%	+10.13	4-6
1994-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 32-28	1496.17	1458.19	62.25%	37.48%	+7.58	5-6
1994-11-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 15-13	1503.75	1366.80	74.41%	25.33%	+3.62	6-6
1994-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1507.37	1546.54	37.32%	62.42%	+10.93	7-6
1994-12-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-23	1518.30	1510.98	43.76%	55.98%	-13.99	7-7
1994-12-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-42	1504.31	1695.51	19.88%	79.85%	-9.66	7-8
1994-12-24	New Orleans Saints	L 28-30	1494.65	1463.64	61.31%	38.43%	-8.76	7-9
1994-09-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-28	1499.09	1467.82	61.34%	38.39%	+6.72	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-10	1505.81	1503.09	43.11%	56.63%	-11.53	1-1
1994-09-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1494.28	1636.39	24.77%	74.97%	+13.12	2-1
1994-09-25	New England Patriots	L 17-23	1507.40	1447.62	65.15%	34.59%	-16.12	2-2
1994-10-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-24	1491.28	1417.08	53.35%	46.39%	-17.05	2-3
1994-10-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-27	1474.23	1571.42	43.12%	56.62%	-10.68	2-4
1994-10-23	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1463.55	1501.86	51.55%	48.19%	+10.89	3-4
1994-10-30	@ New York Giants	W 28-25	1474.44	1492.48	40.21%	59.53%	+10.42	4-4
1994-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 30-38	1484.86	1544.11	34.66%	65.08%	-9.92	4-5
1994-11-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-9	1474.94	1372.80	70.44%	29.30%	+6.63	5-5
1994-11-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-20	1481.57	1492.52	41.19%	58.54%	-13.17	5-6
1994-11-24	Buffalo Bills	W 35-21	1468.40	1544.03	46.18%	53.55%	+20.25	6-6
1994-12-04	Green Bay Packers	W 34-31	1488.65	1540.21	49.64%	50.10%	+8.77	7-6
1994-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 18-7	1497.42	1480.96	45.06%	54.68%	+18.32	8-6
1994-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-19	1515.74	1553.01	51.70%	48.04%	+22.78	9-6
1994-12-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-27	1538.52	1541.83	42.26%	57.48%	-11.31	9-7
1994-09-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-10	1520.55	1513.43	58.01%	41.73%	+10.34	1-0
1994-09-11	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1530.89	1510.13	59.91%	39.83%	-19.14	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-13	1511.75	1520.80	41.46%	58.28%	-10.27	1-2
1994-09-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-3	1501.48	1434.80	66.04%	33.70%	+17.71	2-2
1994-10-02	@ New England Patriots	L 16-17	1519.19	1463.74	50.66%	49.08%	-5.12	2-3
1994-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1514.07	1436.27	67.46%	32.28%	+8.64	3-3
1994-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-13	1522.71	1556.80	38.01%	61.73%	-6.66	3-4
1994-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-6	1516.05	1490.96	46.29%	53.44%	+28.06	4-4
1994-11-06	Detroit Lions	W 38-30	1544.11	1484.86	65.08%	34.66%	+9.92	5-4
1994-11-13	New York Jets	W 17-10	1554.03	1495.05	65.04%	34.69%	+9.28	6-4
1994-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-29	1563.31	1529.62	47.53%	52.21%	-14.41	6-5
1994-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-42	1548.90	1680.67	25.89%	73.84%	-8.69	6-6
1994-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 31-34	1540.21	1488.65	50.10%	49.64%	-8.77	6-7
1994-12-11	Chicago Bears	W 40-3	1531.44	1505.22	60.66%	39.08%	+24.04	7-7
1994-12-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-17	1555.48	1436.82	72.37%	27.37%	+5.54	8-7
1994-12-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-19	1561.02	1411.39	63.82%	35.92%	+14.07	9-7
1994-09-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-45	1556.86	1410.82	63.34%	36.40%	-31.35	0-1
1994-09-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1525.51	1631.33	28.86%	70.88%	-5.06	0-2
1994-09-18	Buffalo Bills	L 7-15	1520.45	1530.90	55.53%	44.21%	-15.87	0-3
1994-09-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1504.58	1396.30	71.17%	28.57%	+7.65	1-3
1994-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-30	1512.23	1494.91	45.18%	54.55%	-18.27	1-4
1994-10-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 8-11	1493.96	1533.86	51.32%	48.42%	-8.98	1-5
1994-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-21	1484.98	1563.99	32.13%	67.61%	-12.59	1-6
1994-10-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-17	1472.39	1503.61	38.40%	61.34%	-6.72	1-7
1994-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-12	1465.67	1520.38	49.19%	50.55%	-8.62	1-8
1994-11-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-34	1457.05	1367.67	55.51%	44.22%	-9.71	1-9
1994-11-21	New York Giants	L 10-13	1447.34	1465.76	54.40%	45.34%	-9.52	1-10
1994-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-34	1437.82	1558.02	27.19%	72.54%	-13.48	1-11
1994-12-04	Arizona Cardinals	L 12-30	1424.34	1478.79	49.23%	50.51%	-21.11	1-12
1994-12-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-16	1403.23	1428.23	53.46%	46.28%	-7.64	1-13
1994-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-31	1395.59	1517.86	26.96%	72.78%	-12.79	1-14
1994-12-24	New York Jets	W 24-10	1382.80	1445.21	48.08%	51.66%	+19.53	2-14
1994-09-04	Houston Oilers	W 45-21	1410.82	1556.86	36.40%	63.34%	+31.35	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-24	1442.17	1425.55	45.08%	54.65%	-17.05	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-31	1425.12	1503.42	32.22%	67.52%	-10.31	1-2
1994-09-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-21	1414.81	1504.45	44.19%	55.55%	-11.82	1-3
1994-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-15	1402.99	1515.61	40.95%	58.78%	+8.40	2-3
1994-10-09	@ New York Jets	L 6-16	1411.39	1471.10	34.60%	65.14%	-11.07	2-4
1994-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-17	1400.32	1554.89	23.46%	76.28%	+24.37	3-4
1994-10-23	Washington Redskins	L 27-41	1424.69	1415.32	58.32%	41.41%	-22.05	3-5
1994-10-30	New York Jets	W 28-25	1402.64	1492.69	44.13%	55.61%	+9.74	4-5
1994-11-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-22	1412.38	1564.09	23.75%	75.99%	-2.41	4-6
1994-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-13	1409.97	1377.39	47.37%	52.37%	+10.59	5-6
1994-11-27	New England Patriots	L 10-12	1420.56	1452.43	52.47%	47.27%	-7.50	5-7
1994-12-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-19	1413.06	1449.97	37.63%	62.11%	+21.73	6-7
1994-12-11	@ New England Patriots	L 13-28	1434.79	1476.03	37.04%	62.69%	-14.51	6-8
1994-12-18	Miami Dolphins	W 10-6	1420.28	1554.30	38.01%	61.72%	+12.48	7-8
1994-12-24	Buffalo Bills	W 10-9	1432.76	1501.73	47.14%	52.60%	+5.31	8-8
1994-09-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-17	1531.70	1501.98	46.96%	52.78%	+19.23	1-0
1994-09-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1550.93	1601.29	49.81%	49.92%	+13.35	2-0
1994-09-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-10	1564.28	1478.46	55.01%	44.73%	+20.22	3-0
1994-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-16	1584.50	1414.07	77.88%	21.86%	-31.47	3-1
1994-10-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-20	1553.03	1571.07	40.21%	59.53%	-15.21	3-2
1994-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-28	1537.82	1471.75	52.18%	47.55%	+8.32	4-2
1994-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-23	1546.14	1490.05	64.66%	35.07%	+13.74	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-44	1559.88	1530.52	46.91%	52.83%	-27.64	5-3
1994-11-06	Los Angeles Raiders	W 13-3	1532.24	1510.34	60.06%	39.67%	+12.68	6-3
1994-11-13	San Diego Chargers	L 13-14	1544.92	1590.78	50.46%	49.28%	-5.10	6-4
1994-11-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-13	1539.82	1570.61	52.63%	47.11%	+12.60	7-4
1994-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-10	1552.42	1444.09	58.18%	41.55%	-5.88	7-5
1994-12-04	Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1546.54	1507.37	62.42%	37.32%	-10.92	7-6
1994-12-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-45	1535.62	1536.55	42.60%	57.14%	-17.76	7-7
1994-12-18	Houston Oilers	W 31-9	1517.86	1395.59	72.78%	26.96%	+12.80	8-7
1994-12-24	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 19-9	1530.66	1529.45	42.90%	56.84%	+18.16	9-7
1994-09-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-44	1503.68	1583.54	32.02%	67.71%	-17.74	0-1
1994-09-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-38	1485.94	1485.86	57.02%	42.72%	-31.03	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 48-16	1454.91	1499.08	36.65%	63.09%	+36.06	1-2
1994-09-25	San Diego Chargers	L 24-26	1490.97	1564.42	46.50%	53.24%	-6.65	1-3
1994-10-09	@ New England Patriots	W 21-17	1484.32	1468.86	44.92%	54.82%	+11.08	2-3
1994-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1495.40	1538.16	36.84%	62.90%	-6.45	2-4
1994-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-17	1488.95	1471.05	59.51%	40.23%	+14.66	3-4
1994-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 17-14	1503.61	1472.39	61.34%	38.40%	+6.73	4-4
1994-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-13	1510.34	1532.24	39.67%	60.06%	-12.69	4-5
1994-11-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1497.65	1447.91	49.83%	49.90%	+8.74	5-5
1994-11-20	New Orleans Saints	W 24-19	1506.39	1453.10	64.30%	35.44%	+8.01	6-5
1994-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-21	1514.40	1553.15	51.48%	48.25%	-22.07	6-6
1994-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-17	1492.33	1589.06	29.95%	69.79%	+18.65	7-6
1994-12-11	Denver Broncos	W 23-13	1510.98	1518.30	55.98%	43.76%	+13.99	8-6
1994-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-16	1524.97	1435.87	55.47%	44.26%	+4.48	9-6
1994-12-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-19	1529.45	1530.66	56.84%	42.90%	-18.16	9-7
1994-09-04	Arizona Cardinals	W 14-12	1437.43	1506.79	47.08%	52.65%	+7.53	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-31	1444.96	1461.10	40.47%	59.27%	-17.37	1-1
1994-09-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-34	1427.59	1587.94	34.51%	65.23%	-13.52	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-0	1414.07	1584.50	21.86%	77.88%	+31.48	2-2
1994-10-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 5-8	1445.55	1473.61	53.02%	46.72%	-9.28	2-3
1994-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-24	1436.27	1514.07	32.28%	67.46%	-8.64	2-4
1994-10-16	New York Giants	W 17-10	1427.63	1518.48	44.02%	55.72%	+14.89	3-4
1994-10-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 34-37	1442.52	1443.78	42.55%	57.19%	-7.45	3-5
1994-11-06	Denver Broncos	W 27-21	1435.07	1498.87	47.88%	51.86%	+12.84	4-5
1994-11-13	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-20	1447.91	1497.65	49.90%	49.83%	-8.74	4-6
1994-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1439.17	1646.22	18.47%	81.27%	-3.74	4-7
1994-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-31	1435.43	1579.77	24.53%	75.21%	-9.29	4-8
1994-12-04	New Orleans Saints	L 15-31	1426.14	1431.66	56.23%	43.51%	-22.72	4-9
1994-12-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-24	1403.42	1387.29	45.01%	54.72%	-14.39	4-10
1994-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1389.03	1481.18	30.50%	69.23%	-11.55	4-11
1994-12-24	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1377.48	1381.26	56.48%	43.26%	-9.88	4-12
1994-09-04	New England Patriots	W 39-35	1502.84	1453.82	63.73%	36.00%	+7.29	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1510.13	1530.89	39.83%	59.91%	+19.13	2-0
1994-09-18	New York Jets	W 28-14	1529.26	1527.56	57.25%	42.49%	+16.08	3-0
1994-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 35-38	1545.34	1542.43	43.14%	56.60%	-7.56	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-7	1537.78	1388.66	63.75%	35.99%	+14.56	4-1
1994-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 11-21	1552.34	1540.70	44.37%	55.36%	-14.18	4-2
1994-10-16	Los Angeles Raiders	W 20-17	1538.16	1495.40	62.90%	36.84%	+6.45	5-2
1994-10-30	@ New England Patriots	W 23-3	1544.61	1447.26	56.64%	43.10%	+19.48	6-2
1994-11-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 22-21	1564.09	1412.38	75.99%	23.75%	+2.41	7-2
1994-11-13	Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1566.50	1480.54	68.47%	31.26%	-11.98	7-3
1994-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1554.52	1545.44	44.01%	55.73%	-7.71	7-4
1994-11-27	@ New York Jets	W 28-24	1546.81	1507.44	48.34%	51.40%	+10.39	8-4
1994-12-04	Buffalo Bills	L 31-42	1557.20	1523.79	61.64%	38.10%	-20.65	8-5
1994-12-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-28	1536.55	1535.62	57.14%	42.60%	+17.75	9-5
1994-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1554.30	1420.28	61.72%	38.01%	-12.47	9-6
1994-12-25	Detroit Lions	W 27-20	1541.83	1538.52	57.48%	42.26%	+11.31	10-6
1994-09-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-16	1513.43	1520.55	41.73%	58.01%	-10.34	0-1
1994-09-11	Detroit Lions	W 10-3	1503.09	1505.81	56.63%	43.11%	+11.54	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 42-14	1514.63	1479.48	47.74%	52.00%	+27.80	2-1
1994-09-25	Miami Dolphins	W 38-35	1542.43	1545.34	56.60%	43.14%	+7.56	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-17	1549.99	1464.90	54.90%	44.83%	-17.55	3-2
1994-10-10	@ New York Giants	W 27-10	1532.44	1542.83	41.27%	58.47%	+24.36	4-2
1994-10-20	Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1556.80	1522.71	61.73%	38.01%	+6.66	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 36-13	1563.46	1407.46	64.66%	35.08%	+17.01	6-2
1994-11-06	New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1580.47	1451.23	73.56%	26.17%	+2.65	7-2
1994-11-13	@ New England Patriots	L 20-26	1583.12	1420.09	65.57%	34.16%	-16.23	7-3
1994-11-20	New York Jets	L 21-31	1566.89	1485.76	67.87%	31.86%	-21.68	7-4
1994-11-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1545.21	1362.87	79.03%	20.71%	-13.83	7-5
1994-12-01	Chicago Bears	W 33-27	1531.38	1515.24	59.27%	40.47%	+10.03	8-5
1994-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1541.41	1544.44	42.30%	57.44%	+11.60	9-5
1994-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-41	1553.01	1515.74	48.04%	51.70%	-22.77	9-6
1994-12-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-14	1530.24	1705.16	32.64%	67.10%	+17.93	10-6
1994-09-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 35-39	1453.82	1502.84	36.00%	63.73%	-7.29	0-1
1994-09-11	Buffalo Bills	L 35-38	1446.53	1522.83	46.09%	53.65%	-8.07	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-28	1438.46	1405.46	47.43%	52.31%	+9.16	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1447.62	1507.40	34.59%	65.15%	+16.12	2-2
1994-10-02	Green Bay Packers	W 17-16	1463.74	1519.19	49.08%	50.66%	+5.12	3-2
1994-10-09	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-21	1468.86	1484.32	54.82%	44.92%	-11.08	3-3
1994-10-16	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1457.78	1482.17	39.33%	60.40%	-10.52	3-4
1994-10-30	Miami Dolphins	L 3-23	1447.26	1544.61	43.10%	56.64%	-19.49	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-13	1427.77	1534.89	28.71%	71.03%	-7.68	3-6
1994-11-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-20	1420.09	1583.12	34.16%	65.57%	+16.22	4-6
1994-11-20	San Diego Chargers	W 23-17	1436.31	1595.88	34.61%	65.12%	+16.12	5-6
1994-11-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 12-10	1452.43	1420.56	47.27%	52.47%	+7.50	6-6
1994-12-04	New York Jets	W 24-13	1459.93	1497.06	51.72%	48.02%	+16.10	7-6
1994-12-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-13	1476.03	1434.79	62.69%	37.04%	+14.51	8-6
1994-12-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1490.54	1532.83	36.90%	62.84%	+31.09	9-6
1994-12-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-3	1521.63	1492.73	46.84%	52.90%	+16.91	10-6
1994-09-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-30	1501.98	1531.70	52.78%	46.96%	-19.23	0-1
1994-09-11	Washington Redskins	L 24-38	1482.75	1447.56	61.88%	37.86%	-23.39	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-7	1459.36	1442.60	45.10%	54.63%	+7.81	1-2
1994-09-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-24	1467.17	1601.46	25.62%	74.12%	-8.60	1-3
1994-10-02	New York Giants	W 27-22	1458.57	1555.62	43.14%	56.60%	+12.79	2-3
1994-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-17	1471.36	1488.98	40.27%	59.47%	-12.88	2-4
1994-10-16	San Diego Chargers	L 22-36	1458.48	1586.28	38.86%	60.88%	-14.70	2-5
1994-10-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-34	1443.78	1442.52	57.19%	42.55%	+7.45	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-21	1451.23	1580.47	26.17%	73.56%	-2.65	3-6
1994-11-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 33-32	1448.58	1462.71	55.01%	44.73%	+4.52	4-6
1994-11-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 19-24	1453.10	1506.39	35.44%	64.30%	-8.01	4-7
1994-11-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-35	1445.09	1649.96	28.97%	70.77%	-13.43	4-8
1994-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-15	1431.66	1426.14	43.51%	56.23%	+22.72	5-8
1994-12-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 29-20	1454.38	1454.08	42.77%	56.97%	+17.27	6-8
1994-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-24	1471.65	1684.76	28.00%	71.73%	-8.01	6-9
1994-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-28	1463.64	1494.65	38.43%	61.31%	+8.76	7-9
1994-09-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-23	1527.89	1518.68	58.30%	41.44%	+9.37	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1537.26	1499.26	48.15%	51.59%	+9.03	2-0
1994-09-18	Washington Redskins	W 31-23	1546.29	1470.95	67.14%	32.59%	+9.33	3-0
1994-10-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 22-27	1555.62	1458.57	56.60%	43.14%	-12.79	3-1
1994-10-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1542.83	1532.44	58.47%	41.27%	-24.35	3-2
1994-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-17	1518.48	1427.63	55.72%	44.02%	-14.90	3-3
1994-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-10	1503.58	1518.26	54.93%	44.81%	-11.10	3-4
1994-10-30	Detroit Lions	L 25-28	1492.48	1474.44	59.53%	40.21%	-10.42	3-5
1994-11-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1482.06	1676.33	19.60%	80.13%	-10.50	3-6
1994-11-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 9-10	1471.56	1468.82	57.39%	42.34%	-5.80	3-7
1994-11-21	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1465.76	1447.34	45.34%	54.40%	+9.52	4-7
1994-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-19	1475.28	1412.58	51.70%	48.04%	+6.87	5-7
1994-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-13	1482.15	1571.50	30.85%	68.89%	+12.05	6-7
1994-12-11	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-20	1494.20	1349.53	75.24%	24.49%	+6.56	7-7
1994-12-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-13	1500.76	1510.65	41.34%	58.40%	+10.22	8-7
1994-12-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 15-10	1510.98	1692.77	31.78%	67.96%	+15.35	9-7
1994-09-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-3	1490.90	1552.36	34.37%	65.37%	+29.53	1-0
1994-09-11	Denver Broncos	W 25-22	1520.43	1506.21	59.00%	40.74%	+7.13	2-0
1994-09-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-28	1527.56	1529.26	42.49%	57.25%	-16.07	2-1
1994-09-25	Chicago Bears	L 7-19	1511.49	1451.67	65.15%	34.58%	-22.80	2-2
1994-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1488.69	1516.27	38.90%	60.84%	-17.59	2-3
1994-10-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-6	1471.10	1411.39	65.14%	34.60%	+11.07	3-3
1994-10-16	New England Patriots	W 24-17	1482.17	1457.78	60.40%	39.33%	+10.52	4-3
1994-10-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 25-28	1492.69	1402.64	55.61%	44.13%	-9.73	4-4
1994-11-06	Buffalo Bills	W 22-17	1482.96	1558.16	46.25%	53.49%	+12.09	5-4
1994-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-17	1495.05	1554.03	34.69%	65.04%	-9.29	5-5
1994-11-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-21	1485.76	1566.89	31.86%	67.87%	+21.68	6-5
1994-11-27	Miami Dolphins	L 24-28	1507.44	1546.81	51.40%	48.34%	-10.38	6-6
1994-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 13-24	1497.06	1459.93	48.02%	51.72%	-16.10	6-7
1994-12-10	Detroit Lions	L 7-18	1480.96	1497.42	54.68%	45.06%	-18.33	6-8
1994-12-18	San Diego Chargers	L 6-21	1462.63	1550.01	44.51%	55.23%	-17.42	6-9
1994-12-24	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-24	1445.21	1382.80	51.66%	48.08%	-19.54	6-10
1994-09-04	@ New York Giants	L 23-28	1518.68	1527.89	41.44%	58.30%	-9.36	0-1
1994-09-12	Chicago Bears	W 30-22	1509.32	1490.96	59.57%	40.16%	+11.48	1-1
1994-09-18	Green Bay Packers	W 13-7	1520.80	1511.75	58.28%	41.46%	+10.27	2-1
1994-10-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-8	1531.07	1610.06	32.13%	67.60%	+38.63	3-1
1994-10-09	Washington Redskins	W 21-17	1569.70	1429.24	74.79%	24.94%	+5.05	4-1
1994-10-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-24	1574.75	1654.13	32.08%	67.65%	-10.76	4-2
1994-10-24	Houston Oilers	W 21-6	1563.99	1484.98	67.61%	32.13%	+12.59	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-29	1576.58	1437.37	62.43%	37.31%	+5.33	6-2
1994-11-06	Arizona Cardinals	W 17-7	1581.91	1478.14	70.63%	29.10%	+9.31	7-2
1994-11-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-26	1591.22	1542.57	63.68%	36.05%	-28.04	7-3
1994-11-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-12	1563.18	1474.62	55.40%	44.34%	-13.71	7-4
1994-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-28	1549.47	1450.61	56.85%	42.88%	-15.20	7-5
1994-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 19-31	1534.27	1689.36	35.20%	64.54%	-12.33	7-6
1994-12-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-14	1521.94	1588.87	33.66%	66.07%	-11.29	7-7
1994-12-18	New York Giants	L 13-16	1510.65	1500.76	58.40%	41.34%	-10.22	7-8
1994-12-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-33	1500.43	1332.40	66.22%	33.52%	-11.59	7-9
1994-09-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 9-26	1505.22	1614.03	41.49%	58.25%	-17.29	0-1
1994-09-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-10	1487.93	1494.60	41.79%	57.95%	+15.49	1-1
1994-09-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-21	1503.42	1425.12	67.52%	32.22%	+10.30	2-1
1994-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-30	1513.72	1496.80	45.13%	54.61%	-18.81	2-2
1994-10-03	Houston Oilers	W 30-14	1494.91	1512.23	54.55%	45.18%	+18.27	3-2
1994-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-10	1513.18	1374.10	74.64%	25.09%	+5.08	4-2
1994-10-23	@ New York Giants	W 10-6	1518.26	1503.58	44.81%	54.93%	+11.10	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-20	1529.36	1469.15	51.34%	48.40%	-8.98	5-3
1994-11-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 12-9	1520.38	1465.67	50.55%	49.19%	+8.61	6-3
1994-11-14	Buffalo Bills	W 23-10	1528.99	1546.08	54.59%	45.15%	+16.45	7-3
1994-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 16-13	1545.44	1554.52	55.73%	44.01%	+7.71	8-3
1994-11-27	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 21-3	1553.15	1514.40	48.25%	51.48%	+22.07	9-3
1994-12-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-15	1575.22	1363.18	71.61%	28.13%	+13.65	10-3
1994-12-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-3	1588.87	1521.94	66.07%	33.66%	+11.30	11-3
1994-12-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1600.17	1576.38	60.32%	39.41%	+12.60	12-3
1994-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 34-37	1612.77	1567.44	49.20%	50.54%	-8.61	12-4
1994-09-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 37-34	1522.98	1516.02	43.71%	56.03%	+9.80	1-0
1994-09-11	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1532.78	1417.02	72.04%	27.70%	+11.56	2-0
1994-09-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-10	1544.34	1516.88	46.63%	53.10%	+20.08	3-0
1994-09-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 26-24	1564.42	1490.97	53.24%	46.50%	+6.65	4-0
1994-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-6	1571.07	1553.03	59.53%	40.21%	+15.21	5-0
1994-10-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 36-22	1586.28	1458.48	60.88%	38.86%	+14.70	6-0
1994-10-23	Denver Broncos	L 15-20	1600.98	1463.42	74.48%	25.26%	-16.82	6-1
1994-10-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-15	1584.16	1476.31	71.11%	28.62%	+12.95	7-1
1994-11-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 9-10	1597.11	1456.39	62.63%	37.11%	-6.33	7-2
1994-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-13	1590.78	1544.92	49.28%	50.46%	+5.10	8-2
1994-11-20	@ New England Patriots	L 17-23	1595.88	1436.31	65.12%	34.61%	-16.11	8-3
1994-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-17	1579.77	1435.43	75.21%	24.53%	+9.29	9-3
1994-12-05	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-24	1589.06	1492.33	69.79%	29.95%	-18.66	9-4
1994-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 15-38	1570.40	1675.12	42.06%	57.68%	-20.39	9-5
1994-12-18	@ New York Jets	W 21-6	1550.01	1462.63	55.23%	44.51%	+17.43	10-5
1994-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-34	1567.44	1612.77	50.54%	49.20%	+8.61	11-5
1994-09-05	Los Angeles Raiders	W 44-14	1583.54	1503.68	67.71%	32.02%	+17.75	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-24	1601.29	1550.93	49.92%	49.81%	-13.35	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-19	1587.94	1427.59	65.23%	34.51%	+13.52	2-1
1994-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 24-13	1601.46	1467.17	74.12%	25.62%	+8.60	3-1
1994-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 8-40	1610.06	1531.07	67.60%	32.13%	-38.64	3-2
1994-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-21	1571.42	1474.23	56.62%	43.12%	+10.68	4-2
1994-10-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 42-3	1582.10	1499.59	54.54%	45.20%	+28.54	5-2
1994-10-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-16	1610.64	1417.43	80.04%	19.70%	+9.97	6-2
1994-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-22	1620.61	1432.03	68.80%	30.94%	+12.12	7-2
1994-11-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-14	1632.73	1686.83	49.27%	50.46%	+13.49	8-2
1994-11-20	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1646.22	1439.17	81.27%	18.47%	+3.74	9-2
1994-11-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-14	1649.96	1445.09	70.77%	28.97%	+13.43	10-2
1994-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 50-14	1663.39	1465.81	80.43%	19.30%	+11.73	11-2
1994-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 38-15	1675.12	1570.40	57.68%	42.06%	+20.39	12-2
1994-12-17	Denver Broncos	W 42-19	1695.51	1504.31	79.85%	19.88%	+9.65	13-2
1994-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-21	1705.16	1530.24	67.10%	32.64%	-17.93	13-3
1994-09-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 28-7	1458.39	1475.03	40.40%	59.34%	+27.47	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-9	1485.86	1485.94	42.72%	57.02%	+31.02	2-0
1994-09-18	San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1516.88	1544.34	53.10%	46.63%	-20.08	2-1
1994-09-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1496.80	1513.72	54.61%	45.13%	+18.81	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 15-17	1515.61	1402.99	58.78%	40.95%	-8.40	3-2
1994-10-09	Denver Broncos	L 9-16	1507.21	1454.58	64.21%	35.53%	-17.16	3-3
1994-10-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-38	1490.05	1546.14	35.07%	64.66%	-13.74	3-4
1994-10-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 15-35	1476.31	1584.16	28.62%	71.11%	-12.95	3-5
1994-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1463.36	1355.22	71.15%	28.59%	-12.45	3-6
1994-11-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1450.91	1486.04	37.87%	61.87%	-10.13	3-7
1994-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 22-21	1440.78	1366.17	67.05%	32.69%	+3.31	4-7
1994-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 10-9	1444.09	1552.42	41.55%	58.18%	+5.88	5-7
1994-12-04	Indianapolis Colts	L 19-31	1449.97	1413.06	62.11%	37.63%	-21.74	5-8
1994-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 16-14	1428.23	1403.23	46.28%	53.46%	+7.64	6-8
1994-12-18	Los Angeles Raiders	L 16-17	1435.87	1524.97	44.26%	55.47%	-4.48	6-9
1994-12-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-35	1431.39	1563.78	25.83%	73.91%	-13.32	6-10
1994-09-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-21	1438.62	1477.89	37.31%	62.43%	-13.07	0-1
1994-09-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-10	1425.55	1442.17	54.65%	45.08%	+17.05	1-1
1994-09-18	New Orleans Saints	L 7-9	1442.60	1459.36	54.63%	45.10%	-7.80	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-30	1434.80	1501.48	33.70%	66.04%	-17.72	1-3
1994-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1417.08	1491.28	46.39%	53.35%	+17.05	2-3
1994-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-34	1434.13	1482.88	36.04%	63.70%	-16.70	2-4
1994-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-41	1417.43	1610.64	19.70%	80.04%	-9.97	2-5
1994-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-36	1407.46	1563.46	35.08%	64.66%	-17.02	2-6
1994-11-06	Chicago Bears	L 6-20	1390.44	1462.90	46.64%	53.10%	-17.64	2-7
1994-11-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-14	1372.80	1474.94	29.30%	70.44%	-6.63	2-8
1994-11-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-22	1366.17	1440.78	32.69%	67.05%	-3.30	2-9
1994-11-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1362.87	1545.21	20.71%	79.03%	+13.83	3-9
1994-12-04	Washington Redskins	W 26-21	1376.70	1405.71	52.88%	46.86%	+10.59	4-9
1994-12-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1387.29	1403.42	54.72%	45.01%	+14.39	5-9
1994-12-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-14	1401.68	1390.97	44.24%	55.50%	+9.71	6-9
1994-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 19-34	1411.39	1561.02	35.92%	63.82%	-14.07	6-10
1994-09-04	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-28	1475.03	1458.39	59.34%	40.40%	-27.47	0-1
1994-09-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-24	1447.56	1482.75	37.86%	61.88%	+23.39	1-1
1994-09-18	@ New York Giants	L 23-31	1470.95	1546.29	32.59%	67.14%	-9.33	1-2
1994-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-27	1461.62	1458.24	57.49%	42.25%	-15.36	1-3
1994-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-34	1446.26	1623.27	32.38%	67.36%	-17.02	1-4
1994-10-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-21	1429.24	1569.70	24.94%	74.79%	-5.05	1-5
1994-10-16	Arizona Cardinals	L 16-19	1424.19	1468.60	50.67%	49.07%	-8.87	1-6
1994-10-23	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 41-27	1415.32	1424.69	41.41%	58.32%	+22.05	2-6
1994-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 29-31	1437.37	1576.58	37.31%	62.43%	-5.34	2-7
1994-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 22-37	1432.03	1620.61	30.94%	68.80%	-12.12	2-8
1994-11-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1419.91	1673.34	14.78%	84.96%	-7.33	2-9
1994-11-27	New York Giants	L 19-21	1412.58	1475.28	48.04%	51.70%	-6.87	2-10
1994-12-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-26	1405.71	1376.70	46.86%	52.88%	-10.59	2-11
1994-12-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-17	1395.12	1499.89	28.99%	70.75%	-4.15	2-12
1994-12-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-17	1390.97	1401.68	55.50%	44.24%	-9.71	2-13
1994-12-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1381.26	1377.48	43.26%	56.48%	+9.89	3-13

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1995-01-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-18	1475.82	1548.17	33.09%	66.91%	+27.81	1-0
1995-01-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 15-44	1503.63	1687.23	20.68%	79.32%	-11.22	1-1
1995-01-01	New England Patriots	W 20-13	1577.10	1538.54	62.47%	37.53%	+10.01	1-0
1995-01-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-29	1587.11	1604.16	40.47%	59.53%	-18.24	1-1
1995-01-08	Green Bay Packers	W 35-9	1677.42	1582.40	69.73%	30.27%	+15.56	1-0
1995-01-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1692.98	1698.45	42.09%	57.91%	-13.42	1-1
1994-12-31	@ Green Bay Packers	L 12-16	1527.21	1575.09	36.28%	63.72%	-7.31	0-1
1994-12-31	Detroit Lions	W 16-12	1575.09	1527.21	63.72%	36.28%	+7.31	1-0
1995-01-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-35	1582.40	1677.42	30.27%	69.73%	-15.55	1-1
1994-12-31	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-27	1548.82	1553.14	42.25%	57.75%	-13.47	0-1
1994-12-31	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1553.14	1548.82	57.75%	42.25%	+13.46	1-0
1995-01-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-22	1566.60	1576.05	41.53%	58.47%	-4.18	1-1
1995-01-01	Chicago Bears	L 18-35	1548.17	1475.82	66.91%	33.09%	-27.81	0-1
1995-01-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-20	1538.54	1577.10	37.53%	62.47%	-10.01	0-1
1995-01-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 29-9	1604.16	1587.11	59.53%	40.47%	+18.24	1-0
1995-01-15	San Diego Chargers	L 13-17	1622.40	1580.23	62.96%	37.04%	-12.69	1-1
1995-01-08	Miami Dolphins	W 22-21	1576.05	1566.60	58.47%	41.53%	+4.18	1-0
1995-01-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-13	1580.23	1622.40	37.04%	62.96%	+12.70	2-0
1995-01-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 26-49	1592.93	1711.87	33.52%	66.48%	-16.21	2-1
1995-01-07	Chicago Bears	W 44-15	1687.23	1503.63	79.32%	20.68%	+11.22	1-0
1995-01-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-28	1698.45	1692.98	57.91%	42.09%	+13.42	2-0
1995-01-29	San Diego Chargers	W 49-26	1711.87	1592.93	66.48%	33.52%	+16.20	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1994-11-27	20.71%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1362.87	20	@ Minnesota Vikings	1545.21	17
2	1994-09-25	21.86%	Los Angeles Rams	1414.07	16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1584.50	0
3	1994-10-16	23.46%	Indianapolis Colts	1400.32	27	@ Buffalo Bills	1554.89	17
4	1994-12-10	24.75%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1559.44	19	@ Dallas Cowboys	1701.70	14
5	1994-09-19	24.77%	Detroit Lions	1494.28	20	@ Dallas Cowboys	1636.39	17
6	1994-10-23	25.26%	Denver Broncos	1463.42	20	@ San Diego Chargers	1600.98	15
7	1994-11-06	28.59%	Cincinnati Bengals	1355.22	20	@ Seattle Seahawks	1463.36	17
8	1994-12-05	29.95%	Los Angeles Raiders	1492.33	24	@ San Diego Chargers	1589.06	17
9	1994-12-04	30.85%	New York Giants	1482.15	16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1571.50	13
10	1994-11-13	31.26%	Chicago Bears	1480.54	17	@ Miami Dolphins	1566.50	14
11	1994-12-24	31.78%	@ New York Giants	1510.98	15	Dallas Cowboys	1692.77	10
12	1994-11-20	31.86%	New York Jets	1485.76	31	@ Minnesota Vikings	1566.89	21
13	1994-10-02	32.13%	Philadelphia Eagles	1531.07	40	@ San Francisco 49ers	1610.06	8
14	1994-12-26	32.64%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1530.24	21	San Francisco 49ers	1705.16	14
15	1995-01-01 *	33.09%	Chicago Bears	1475.82	35	@ Minnesota Vikings	1548.17	18
16	1994-12-24	33.52%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1332.40	33	Philadelphia Eagles	1500.43	30
17	1994-11-13	34.16%	@ New England Patriots	1420.09	26	Minnesota Vikings	1583.12	20
18	1994-09-04	34.37%	New York Jets	1490.90	23	@ Buffalo Bills	1552.36	3
19	1994-09-25	34.58%	Chicago Bears	1451.67	19	@ New York Jets	1511.49	7
20	1994-09-25	34.59%	New England Patriots	1447.62	23	@ Detroit Lions	1507.40	17
21	1994-11-20	34.61%	@ New England Patriots	1436.31	23	San Diego Chargers	1595.88	17
22	1994-10-09	35.53%	Denver Broncos	1454.58	16	@ Seattle Seahawks	1507.21	9
23	1994-11-13	36.05%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1542.57	26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1591.22	7
24	1994-09-04	36.40%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1410.82	45	Houston Oilers	1556.86	21
25	1994-09-18	36.65%	Los Angeles Raiders	1454.91	48	@ Denver Broncos	1499.08	16

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1994-10-02	38.64	Philadelphia Eagles	40	1531.07	32.13%	@ San Francisco 49ers	8	1610.06	67.60%
2	1994-09-18	36.06	Los Angeles Raiders	48	1454.91	36.65%	@ Denver Broncos	16	1499.08	63.09%
3	1994-09-25	31.48	Los Angeles Rams	16	1414.07	21.86%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	0	1584.50	77.88%
4	1994-09-04	31.35	@ Indianapolis Colts	45	1410.82	36.40%	Houston Oilers	21	1556.86	63.34%
5	1994-12-18	31.10	New England Patriots	41	1490.54	36.90%	@ Buffalo Bills	17	1532.83	62.84%
6	1994-09-11	31.03	Seattle Seahawks	38	1485.86	42.72%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	9	1485.94	57.02%
7	1994-09-04	29.53	New York Jets	23	1490.90	34.37%	@ Buffalo Bills	3	1552.36	65.37%
8	1994-10-16	28.54	San Francisco 49ers	42	1582.10	54.54%	@ Atlanta Falcons	3	1499.59	45.20%
9	1994-10-31	28.06	Green Bay Packers	33	1516.05	46.29%	@ Chicago Bears	6	1490.96	53.44%
10	1994-11-13	28.04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	26	1542.57	36.05%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1591.22	63.68%
11	1995-01-01 *	27.81	Chicago Bears	35	1475.82	33.09%	@ Minnesota Vikings	18	1548.17	66.91%
12	1994-09-18	27.81	Minnesota Vikings	42	1514.63	47.74%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1479.48	52.00%
13	1994-10-30	27.64	@ Buffalo Bills	44	1530.52	52.83%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1559.88	46.91%
14	1994-09-04	27.47	Seattle Seahawks	28	1458.39	40.40%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1475.03	59.34%
15	1994-09-18	25.34	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	32	1479.11	55.44%	Arizona Cardinals	0	1490.23	44.30%
16	1994-10-16	24.37	Indianapolis Colts	27	1400.32	23.46%	@ Buffalo Bills	17	1554.89	76.28%
17	1994-10-10	24.36	Minnesota Vikings	27	1532.44	41.27%	@ New York Giants	10	1542.83	58.47%
18	1994-12-11	24.04	@ Green Bay Packers	40	1531.44	60.66%	Chicago Bears	3	1505.22	39.08%
19	1994-09-11	23.39	Washington Redskins	38	1447.56	37.86%	@ New Orleans Saints	24	1482.75	61.88%
20	1994-09-25	22.80	Chicago Bears	19	1451.67	34.58%	@ New York Jets	7	1511.49	65.15%
21	1994-12-17	22.78	@ Detroit Lions	41	1515.74	51.70%	Minnesota Vikings	19	1553.01	48.04%
22	1994-12-04	22.72	New Orleans Saints	31	1431.66	43.51%	@ Los Angeles Rams	15	1426.14	56.23%
23	1994-11-27	22.07	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	1553.15	48.25%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	3	1514.40	51.48%
24	1994-10-23	22.05	Washington Redskins	41	1415.32	41.41%	@ Indianapolis Colts	27	1424.69	58.32%
25	1994-12-04	21.74	Indianapolis Colts	31	1413.06	37.63%	@ Seattle Seahawks	19	1449.97	62.11%