1993 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Dallas Cowboys

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1992

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1992

Biggest Overachiever

Houston Oilers

2.38 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.62 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Washington Redskins

3.71 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.71 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	12	4	.750	—	368	238	+130	9.62	+2.38
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	308	281	+27	8.63	+0.37
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	9	.438	5	304	307	-3	7.79	-0.79
4	Cincinnati Bengals	3	13	.188	9	187	319	-132	5.33	-2.33

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	12	4	.750	—	329	242	+87	10.24	+1.76
2	Miami Dolphins	9	7	.562	3	349	351	-2	9.15	-0.15
3	New York Jets	8	8	.500	4	270	247	+23	7.43	+0.57
4	New England Patriots	5	11	.312	7	238	286	-48	5.39	-0.39
5	Indianapolis Colts	4	12	.250	8	189	378	-189	5.94	-1.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	11	5	.688	—	328	291	+37	9.31	+1.69
2	Los Angeles Raiders Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	306	326	-20	8.35	+1.65
3	Denver Broncos Playoffs	9	7	.562	2	373	284	+89	8.98	+0.02
4	San Diego Chargers	8	8	.500	3	322	290	+32	8.33	-0.33
5	Seattle Seahawks	6	10	.375	5	280	314	-34	6.21	-0.21

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	10	6	.625	—	298	292	+6	8.35	+1.65
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	340	282	+58	8.51	+0.49
3	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	277	290	-13	8.21	+0.79
4	Chicago Bears	7	9	.438	3	234	230	+4	7.69	-0.69
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	5	237	376	-139	4.98	+0.02

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	—	376	229	+147	10.78	+1.22
2	New York Giants Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	288	205	+83	8.63	+2.37
3	Philadelphia Eagles	8	8	.500	4	293	315	-22	8.50	-0.50
4	Phoenix Cardinals	7	9	.438	5	326	269	+57	6.35	+0.65
5	Washington Redskins	4	12	.250	8	230	345	-115	7.71	-3.71

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	6	.625	—	473	295	+178	10.84	-0.84
2	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	2	317	343	-26	9.57	-1.57
3	Atlanta Falcons	6	10	.375	4	316	385	-69	6.78	-0.78
4	Los Angeles Rams	5	11	.312	5	221	367	-146	6.41	-1.41

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Kansas City Chiefs 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Jan 8

Los Angeles Raiders 42

Denver Broncos 24

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills 29

Los Angeles Raiders 23

Jan 15

Kansas City Chiefs 28

Houston Oilers 20

Jan 16

Conference Championship

Buffalo Bills 30

Kansas City Chiefs 13

Jan 23

NFC

Wild Card Round

Green Bay Packers 28

Detroit Lions 24

Jan 8

New York Giants 17

Minnesota Vikings 10

Jan 9

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 44

New York Giants 3

Jan 15

Dallas Cowboys 27

Green Bay Packers 17

Jan 16

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 38

San Francisco 49ers 21

Jan 23

Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys 30

Buffalo Bills 13

Jan 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1708	12	10.78	+1.22	82.62%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1656	10	10.84	-0.84	41.95%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1648	12	9.62	+2.38	93.84%	2	6	8	10	11	13	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1616	12	10.24	+1.76	89.54%	4	7	9	10	11	13	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1574	11	8.63	+2.37	93.53%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1570	11	9.31	+1.69	87.59%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1557	9	8.98	+0.02	60.44%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1547	8	8.33	-0.33	53.89%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1543	9	8.21	+0.79	75.20%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1542	8	8.50	-0.50	50.28%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1540	9	8.51	+0.49	69.27%	2	5	7	8	10	12	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1519	9	8.63	+0.37	67.71%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1513	7	6.35	+0.65	74.16%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1509	10	8.35	+1.65	87.15%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1507	9	9.15	-0.15	57.08%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1505	8	9.57	-1.57	28.65%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1493	10	8.35	+1.65	86.96%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1480	8	7.43	+0.57	72.10%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1455	7	7.79	-0.79	44.72%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1449	7	7.69	-0.69	46.34%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1443	4	7.71	-3.71	4.48%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1429	6	6.78	-0.78	45.04%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1404	6	6.21	-0.21	56.99%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1390	5	5.39	-0.39	53.77%	0	2	4	5	7	8	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1372	5	4.98	+0.02	62.58%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1372	5	6.41	-1.41	32.93%	0	3	5	6	8	10	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1341	3	5.33	-2.33	16.04%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1319	4	5.94	-1.94	22.14%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.2 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—
New York Jets	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.34%	2.46%	2.68%	1.79%	0.67%	1.34%	—	10.27%
7–13	2.46%	4.46%	5.80%	3.79%	2.23%	1.34%	0.45%	20.54%
14–20	2.68%	5.80%	11.16%	6.25%	3.57%	1.79%	1.12%	32.37%
21–27	1.79%	3.79%	6.25%	2.68%	2.68%	0.45%	0.22%	17.86%
28–34	0.67%	2.23%	3.57%	2.68%	1.34%	0.67%	0.22%	11.38%
35–41	1.34%	1.34%	1.79%	0.45%	0.67%	—	—	5.58%
42+	—	0.45%	1.12%	0.22%	0.22%	—	—	2.01%
Total	10.27%	20.54%	32.37%	17.86%	11.38%	5.58%	2.01%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.70	18.70	+0.00
SD	10.02	10.02	14.46
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	55	55	+38
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	24.06	-4.31
SD	8.61	11.86	12.00
CV	0.44	0.49	—
Max	31	45	+13
Min	0	0	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	50.00%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.56	15.12	+5.44
SD	12.26	7.87	13.75
CV	0.60	0.52	—
Max	47	34	+28
Min	0	7	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	50.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.62	14.38	+0.25
SD	11.16	6.44	11.22
CV	0.76	0.45	—
Max	47	26	+30
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.69	19.94	-8.25
SD	5.30	9.73	11.64
CV	0.45	0.49	—
Max	21	38	+12
Min	2	3	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	50.00%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	19.19	-0.19
SD	9.08	5.02	11.91
CV	0.48	0.26	—
Max	42	29	+28
Min	5	13	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	37.50%	37.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.50	14.31	+9.19
SD	8.85	8.24	14.28
CV	0.38	0.58	—
Max	38	35	+35
Min	10	3	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.31	17.75	+5.56
SD	9.48	7.66	10.31
CV	0.41	0.43	—
Max	37	33	+24
Min	7	3	-8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.62	18.25	+0.38
SD	9.78	12.06	15.46
CV	0.53	0.66	—
Max	30	55	+23
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	17.62	+3.62
SD	7.78	10.13	14.56
CV	0.37	0.57	—
Max	37	36	+30
Min	13	0	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	12.50%	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	12.50%	43.75%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	14.88	+8.12
SD	8.29	10.81	16.63
CV	0.36	0.73	—
Max	38	35	+35
Min	7	0	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
7–13	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.81	23.62	-11.81
SD	8.28	11.50	13.58
CV	0.70	0.49	—
Max	27	41	+13
Min	0	6	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.50	18.19	+2.31
SD	9.07	8.83	14.83
CV	0.44	0.49	—
Max	34	30	+24
Min	0	3	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.12	20.38	-1.25
SD	8.39	7.59	10.43
CV	0.44	0.37	—
Max	33	31	+17
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	—	6.25%	31.25%	6.25%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.81	22.94	-9.12
SD	8.57	13.83	18.04
CV	0.62	0.60	—
Max	28	42	+27
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.81	21.94	-0.12
SD	8.07	11.50	11.92
CV	0.37	0.52	—
Max	41	47	+20
Min	10	10	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.31	18.12	-0.81
SD	6.44	11.87	12.08
CV	0.37	0.65	—
Max	30	38	+20
Min	7	0	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.88	17.88	-3.00
SD	9.82	12.16	15.68
CV	0.66	0.68	—
Max	38	45	+38
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	62.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	21.44	-1.62
SD	8.46	11.11	15.04
CV	0.43	0.52	—
Max	37	42	+31
Min	7	3	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	43.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	12.81	+5.19
SD	8.97	6.97	12.69
CV	0.50	0.54	—
Max	41	31	+34
Min	6	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.88	15.44	+1.44
SD	12.25	10.12	14.76
CV	0.73	0.66	—
Max	45	35	+38
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.31	19.69	-1.38
SD	12.00	7.83	7.97
CV	0.66	0.40	—
Max	37	34	+11
Min	3	7	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	62.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.38	16.81	+3.56
SD	8.11	8.15	12.98
CV	0.40	0.48	—
Max	38	28	+30
Min	10	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.25	17.56	+1.69
SD	12.02	9.87	17.98
CV	0.62	0.56	—
Max	45	37	+28
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	50.00%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	18.12	+2.00
SD	10.95	8.29	13.82
CV	0.54	0.46	—
Max	45	34	+31
Min	3	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.56	18.44	+11.12
SD	13.36	8.48	15.34
CV	0.45	0.46	—
Max	55	37	+38
Min	7	7	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	19.62	-2.12
SD	6.43	9.59	10.90
CV	0.37	0.49	—
Max	31	34	+17
Min	9	5	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	6.25%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.81	23.50	-8.69
SD	9.05	12.13	14.76
CV	0.61	0.52	—
Max	31	47	+17
Min	0	10	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.38	21.56	-7.19
SD	11.41	10.63	15.52
CV	0.79	0.49	—
Max	35	41	+19
Min	0	3	-35

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	12	9.62	+2.38
2	New York Giants	11	8.63	+2.37
3	Buffalo Bills	12	10.24	+1.76
4	Kansas City Chiefs	11	9.31	+1.69
5	Los Angeles Raiders	10	8.35	+1.65

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	4	7.71	-3.71
2	Cincinnati Bengals	3	5.33	-2.33
3	Indianapolis Colts	4	5.94	-1.94
4	New Orleans Saints	8	9.57	-1.57
5	Los Angeles Rams	5	6.41	-1.41

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	11	Oct 17 – Jan 2	1 in 161
2	Chicago Bears	4	Nov 14 – Dec 5	1 in 45
3	New England Patriots	4	Dec 12 – Jan 2	1 in 38
4	New York Jets	5	Oct 31 – Nov 28	1 in 32
5	New York Giants	6	Nov 14 – Dec 20	1 in 27

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Philadelphia Eagles	6	Oct 10 – Nov 21	1 in 137
2	Washington Redskins	6	Sep 12 – Nov 1	1 in 122
3	Miami Dolphins	5	Dec 5 – Jan 2	1 in 84
4	Cincinnati Bengals	10	Sep 5 – Nov 21	1 in 76
5	New Orleans Saints	4	Dec 5 – Dec 26	1 in 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Oilers	53.43%	28.48%	14.54%	3.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	29.19%	36.07%	26.23%	8.51%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	15.53%	28.56%	39.35%	16.56%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.85%	6.89%	19.88%	71.38%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	57.56%	28.16%	10.07%	3.38%	0.83%
Miami Dolphins	30.95%	38.65%	19.30%	8.33%	2.77%
New York Jets	8.33%	20.89%	36.35%	23.11%	11.32%
Indianapolis Colts	1.95%	7.80%	20.21%	35.36%	34.68%
New England Patriots	1.21%	4.50%	14.07%	29.82%	50.40%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Kansas City Chiefs	34.13%	26.02%	19.69%	13.79%	6.37%
Denver Broncos	28.00%	25.11%	21.40%	16.85%	8.64%
Los Angeles Raiders	17.79%	21.27%	23.56%	23.36%	14.02%
San Diego Chargers	17.44%	21.40%	23.49%	23.31%	14.36%
Seattle Seahawks	2.64%	6.20%	11.86%	22.69%	56.61%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Green Bay Packers	30.86%	24.94%	21.87%	16.29%	6.04%
Detroit Lions	26.01%	25.03%	22.75%	19.25%	6.96%
Minnesota Vikings	24.70%	25.15%	23.52%	18.95%	7.68%
Chicago Bears	16.92%	21.19%	23.84%	25.42%	12.63%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.51%	3.69%	8.02%	20.09%	66.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	61.50%	22.29%	9.86%	4.88%	1.47%
New York Giants	15.01%	27.25%	25.97%	20.58%	11.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	14.05%	26.26%	26.22%	21.47%	12.00%
Washington Redskins	7.50%	17.88%	24.74%	28.85%	21.03%
Phoenix Cardinals	1.94%	6.32%	13.21%	24.22%	54.31%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	63.56%	28.18%	6.75%	1.51%
New Orleans Saints	30.66%	47.87%	15.99%	5.48%
Atlanta Falcons	3.27%	13.13%	41.27%	42.33%
Los Angeles Rams	2.51%	10.82%	35.99%	50.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Buffalo Bills	25.49%	18.34%	14.03%	10.80%	8.83%	6.39%	4.96%	3.73%	2.63%	2.12%	1.26%	0.79%	0.37%	0.26%
Houston Oilers	15.77%	15.75%	14.28%	11.12%	9.80%	8.85%	6.86%	5.87%	4.28%	2.97%	1.96%	1.46%	0.87%	0.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	12.79%	12.32%	11.73%	10.85%	10.02%	8.69%	8.32%	6.46%	5.43%	4.85%	3.75%	2.57%	1.57%	0.65%
Miami Dolphins	11.38%	10.90%	11.31%	11.58%	11.10%	10.19%	7.69%	7.19%	5.61%	4.52%	3.79%	2.42%	1.49%	0.83%
Denver Broncos	9.86%	10.78%	10.15%	10.11%	9.80%	9.02%	8.62%	7.23%	6.61%	6.11%	4.70%	3.58%	2.26%	1.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.58%	8.52%	9.56%	10.40%	9.43%	10.66%	9.40%	9.23%	7.81%	6.14%	4.56%	3.31%	2.47%	0.93%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.56%	6.79%	7.65%	8.47%	8.42%	9.59%	9.61%	9.00%	8.47%	8.46%	6.71%	5.00%	4.10%	2.17%
San Diego Chargers	5.57%	7.04%	7.78%	8.20%	8.87%	8.32%	9.52%	9.17%	8.85%	8.30%	6.71%	5.19%	4.05%	2.43%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.85%	4.69%	5.89%	7.09%	8.49%	8.98%	9.50%	9.91%	11.27%	9.62%	8.34%	6.16%	4.80%	2.41%
New York Jets	1.99%	2.74%	4.02%	5.54%	6.93%	8.02%	9.19%	10.70%	11.36%	10.58%	10.18%	8.17%	5.99%	4.59%
Seattle Seahawks	0.62%	0.96%	1.30%	2.31%	2.65%	3.59%	5.50%	5.99%	7.69%	9.73%	11.53%	14.97%	17.22%	15.94%
Indianapolis Colts	0.26%	0.60%	1.09%	1.69%	2.50%	3.41%	4.61%	6.33%	8.33%	9.44%	13.02%	14.86%	15.57%	18.29%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.13%	0.25%	0.61%	0.95%	1.68%	2.38%	3.11%	4.60%	5.86%	8.61%	11.86%	17.76%	21.07%	21.13%
New England Patriots	0.15%	0.32%	0.60%	0.89%	1.48%	1.91%	3.11%	4.59%	5.80%	8.55%	11.63%	13.76%	18.17%	29.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	30.51%	21.25%	14.99%	10.21%	7.43%	5.82%	3.25%	2.44%	1.69%	1.13%	0.65%	0.45%	0.14%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	30.43%	21.47%	13.01%	9.53%	7.28%	5.20%	4.28%	2.91%	2.22%	1.63%	1.05%	0.58%	0.29%	0.12%
New Orleans Saints	12.32%	12.65%	12.81%	12.92%	12.33%	9.67%	7.19%	5.76%	4.93%	3.40%	2.85%	1.80%	1.10%	0.27%
Green Bay Packers	4.36%	8.25%	10.46%	9.06%	9.26%	9.61%	8.83%	8.88%	8.07%	6.52%	6.05%	4.85%	3.52%	2.28%
New York Giants	5.22%	6.89%	7.88%	9.62%	10.09%	9.44%	9.60%	9.03%	8.10%	7.44%	6.10%	4.81%	3.75%	2.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.59%	6.45%	7.82%	10.04%	9.37%	9.06%	10.30%	8.21%	8.15%	8.21%	6.48%	4.97%	4.41%	1.94%
Detroit Lions	3.58%	6.61%	9.40%	8.44%	8.96%	10.23%	8.55%	9.29%	8.22%	7.07%	6.91%	6.14%	3.76%	2.84%
Minnesota Vikings	3.76%	5.89%	8.09%	8.76%	8.65%	9.73%	9.20%	9.65%	8.61%	7.96%	7.03%	5.68%	3.80%	3.19%
Chicago Bears	1.85%	3.80%	6.18%	6.81%	7.18%	8.51%	8.57%	9.29%	9.23%	8.65%	9.50%	7.81%	6.94%	5.68%
Washington Redskins	1.85%	3.37%	4.29%	6.12%	7.60%	8.13%	9.16%	9.27%	9.33%	9.97%	9.69%	8.51%	7.26%	5.45%
Atlanta Falcons	0.60%	1.43%	1.90%	2.96%	4.52%	5.25%	7.09%	9.29%	11.06%	11.12%	11.72%	13.59%	11.80%	7.67%
Los Angeles Rams	0.43%	0.90%	1.43%	2.55%	3.50%	4.41%	6.79%	7.28%	9.07%	10.88%	12.35%	14.95%	14.91%	10.55%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.45%	0.86%	1.33%	2.20%	2.88%	3.49%	5.15%	5.94%	7.28%	10.15%	11.37%	14.15%	19.18%	15.57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.18%	0.41%	0.78%	0.95%	1.45%	2.04%	2.76%	4.04%	5.87%	8.25%	11.71%	19.14%	42.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	19.73%	13.16%	10.89%	9.51%	8.19%	6.55%	5.00%	4.78%	3.89%	3.31%	2.87%	2.38%	1.82%	1.63%	1.20%	1.36%	0.78%	0.62%	0.62%	0.52%	0.37%	0.25%	0.19%	0.20%	0.10%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	19.70%	13.47%	11.14%	8.64%	7.26%	5.56%	5.35%	4.29%	3.88%	3.21%	2.93%	2.31%	2.24%	1.76%	1.56%	1.33%	1.11%	1.13%	0.85%	0.56%	0.37%	0.56%	0.22%	0.19%	0.19%	0.09%	0.07%	0.03%
Buffalo Bills	11.85%	12.08%	9.10%	9.08%	7.65%	6.86%	5.92%	5.39%	4.71%	4.15%	3.51%	3.02%	2.73%	2.58%	1.91%	1.70%	1.57%	1.13%	1.05%	1.12%	0.72%	0.73%	0.39%	0.39%	0.20%	0.25%	0.15%	0.06%
Houston Oilers	6.86%	7.85%	7.61%	7.87%	6.73%	7.17%	5.57%	5.66%	4.88%	5.24%	4.25%	4.38%	3.77%	3.81%	2.78%	2.98%	2.22%	2.32%	1.59%	1.56%	1.22%	0.98%	0.77%	0.81%	0.48%	0.39%	0.19%	0.06%
New Orleans Saints	6.81%	6.67%	6.95%	6.40%	6.83%	6.05%	6.48%	5.95%	6.01%	5.39%	4.46%	4.81%	3.66%	3.46%	3.32%	2.37%	2.68%	2.58%	1.75%	1.56%	1.48%	1.32%	0.97%	0.76%	0.61%	0.38%	0.20%	0.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.13%	6.58%	6.09%	6.23%	6.07%	6.06%	5.79%	5.30%	5.12%	5.02%	4.83%	4.07%	4.36%	3.79%	3.21%	3.19%	2.86%	2.95%	2.47%	2.43%	1.80%	1.84%	1.41%	1.12%	0.89%	0.77%	0.41%	0.21%
Miami Dolphins	4.50%	5.93%	5.43%	5.91%	5.58%	5.59%	5.51%	5.88%	5.47%	5.70%	5.07%	4.89%	3.62%	4.28%	3.77%	3.39%	2.86%	3.00%	2.29%	2.40%	1.99%	1.86%	1.53%	1.21%	0.81%	0.76%	0.48%	0.29%
Denver Broncos	4.00%	5.06%	5.20%	5.56%	5.03%	5.56%	4.80%	5.16%	4.91%	5.19%	4.69%	4.56%	4.44%	4.05%	3.70%	3.63%	3.47%	3.09%	2.96%	3.00%	2.54%	2.28%	1.93%	1.66%	1.35%	1.18%	0.62%	0.38%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.08%	3.67%	4.02%	4.57%	4.21%	5.03%	4.79%	5.39%	4.71%	5.32%	4.45%	5.29%	4.64%	5.29%	3.86%	4.56%	3.85%	4.49%	3.07%	3.47%	2.13%	2.64%	1.90%	1.81%	1.38%	1.31%	0.70%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	2.24%	2.76%	4.27%	4.11%	5.18%	4.60%	5.07%	4.20%	4.89%	4.57%	4.79%	4.51%	4.75%	4.23%	4.81%	4.27%	4.18%	3.90%	3.69%	2.92%	3.27%	2.69%	2.82%	2.03%	1.87%	1.54%	1.19%	0.65%
New York Giants	2.69%	3.14%	3.67%	3.53%	4.15%	4.39%	4.50%	5.01%	5.05%	5.07%	4.79%	4.76%	4.61%	4.63%	4.35%	4.78%	4.36%	3.68%	4.02%	3.46%	3.27%	2.63%	2.51%	1.98%	2.09%	1.36%	0.95%	0.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.34%	2.69%	3.50%	3.55%	4.15%	4.02%	5.20%	4.50%	4.95%	4.36%	4.74%	4.47%	5.39%	4.71%	4.48%	4.20%	4.25%	3.84%	3.96%	3.67%	3.45%	2.94%	2.73%	2.39%	2.36%	1.58%	0.98%	0.60%
Detroit Lions	1.63%	2.41%	3.35%	3.44%	4.06%	4.73%	4.33%	4.59%	4.28%	4.73%	4.74%	5.19%	4.34%	4.59%	4.67%	4.59%	4.43%	3.88%	3.90%	3.31%	3.91%	3.16%	3.10%	2.48%	2.11%	1.66%	1.67%	0.72%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.90%	2.79%	3.28%	3.69%	3.63%	4.04%	4.10%	4.40%	4.35%	4.36%	4.90%	5.25%	4.64%	4.62%	4.62%	4.72%	4.08%	3.95%	4.18%	4.23%	3.26%	3.61%	2.73%	2.39%	2.10%	2.06%	1.18%	0.94%
San Diego Chargers	1.81%	3.04%	2.97%	4.09%	3.82%	4.19%	4.36%	3.94%	4.42%	4.44%	4.63%	4.06%	4.38%	4.72%	4.63%	4.88%	4.43%	3.91%	4.40%	4.20%	3.35%	3.35%	2.73%	2.55%	2.08%	2.07%	1.57%	0.98%
Minnesota Vikings	1.78%	2.35%	3.02%	3.09%	3.91%	3.55%	4.78%	3.86%	4.97%	4.16%	4.88%	4.88%	4.95%	4.65%	4.84%	4.32%	4.70%	4.45%	4.01%	3.79%	3.31%	3.19%	3.18%	2.98%	1.79%	1.81%	1.65%	1.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.90%	1.65%	2.14%	2.33%	2.64%	3.22%	3.21%	3.79%	4.04%	4.24%	3.97%	4.49%	4.67%	4.93%	4.60%	5.43%	4.86%	5.59%	4.50%	4.91%	4.38%	4.59%	3.40%	3.43%	2.60%	2.48%	1.67%	1.34%
Chicago Bears	0.85%	1.29%	1.86%	2.07%	2.93%	3.11%	3.19%	3.72%	3.56%	3.47%	4.52%	4.12%	4.47%	4.19%	5.03%	4.47%	4.84%	4.40%	4.48%	4.40%	4.98%	4.54%	3.92%	4.02%	3.89%	3.02%	2.73%	1.93%
Washington Redskins	0.88%	1.08%	1.77%	1.77%	2.17%	2.36%	2.96%	3.58%	3.87%	3.83%	4.37%	4.12%	4.55%	4.30%	4.89%	4.74%	5.19%	4.38%	4.95%	4.86%	5.06%	4.48%	4.39%	3.89%	3.90%	3.14%	2.66%	1.86%
New York Jets	0.57%	0.93%	1.19%	1.66%	1.85%	2.29%	2.55%	2.94%	3.07%	3.62%	3.68%	4.07%	4.47%	4.85%	4.70%	5.38%	4.74%	6.28%	5.24%	5.29%	4.85%	5.56%	4.50%	4.20%	3.63%	3.30%	2.77%	1.82%
Atlanta Falcons	0.24%	0.39%	0.75%	0.63%	0.98%	1.28%	1.55%	1.57%	2.21%	2.30%	2.79%	2.83%	3.38%	3.74%	4.50%	4.53%	5.25%	5.62%	5.41%	5.75%	6.13%	5.51%	6.66%	6.27%	5.81%	5.87%	4.44%	3.61%
Los Angeles Rams	0.12%	0.25%	0.46%	0.60%	0.72%	1.00%	1.12%	1.19%	1.67%	1.90%	2.25%	2.40%	3.29%	3.16%	3.83%	3.82%	4.46%	4.54%	5.19%	5.62%	6.34%	6.11%	7.00%	6.82%	7.44%	7.39%	6.24%	5.07%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.18%	0.22%	0.49%	0.41%	0.64%	0.67%	1.12%	1.15%	1.33%	1.61%	2.03%	1.92%	2.39%	2.66%	3.46%	3.35%	3.66%	3.87%	5.27%	5.25%	6.19%	5.93%	7.15%	7.72%	8.74%	7.56%	8.56%	6.47%
Seattle Seahawks	0.13%	0.28%	0.32%	0.56%	0.58%	0.66%	1.08%	1.22%	1.24%	1.35%	1.80%	2.14%	2.52%	2.79%	3.28%	3.07%	3.61%	3.76%	5.02%	4.90%	5.57%	5.96%	7.25%	7.42%	8.21%	8.59%	8.33%	8.36%
Indianapolis Colts	0.04%	0.13%	0.21%	0.33%	0.45%	0.51%	0.64%	1.09%	1.02%	1.29%	1.59%	1.71%	2.16%	2.35%	2.97%	3.11%	4.08%	4.18%	4.06%	4.94%	5.70%	7.03%	6.83%	7.84%	7.95%	8.83%	9.27%	9.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.03%	0.11%	0.13%	0.17%	0.35%	0.34%	0.59%	0.56%	0.89%	0.97%	1.40%	1.53%	1.35%	1.87%	2.19%	2.44%	3.35%	3.95%	4.40%	4.94%	6.38%	7.24%	8.87%	9.27%	11.51%	11.21%	13.94%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.07%	0.15%	0.13%	0.29%	0.30%	0.36%	0.53%	0.54%	0.84%	0.81%	1.11%	1.21%	1.71%	1.88%	2.30%	2.77%	3.08%	3.88%	4.31%	5.12%	5.89%	6.49%	7.53%	9.17%	9.79%	12.96%	16.77%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.11%	0.13%	0.30%	0.33%	0.33%	0.40%	0.44%	0.69%	0.86%	1.02%	1.17%	1.28%	1.34%	2.27%	2.03%	3.24%	3.17%	4.30%	3.99%	6.06%	7.04%	8.98%	11.27%	17.12%	22.03%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	25.49%	18.37%	13.70%	11.38%	8.87%	6.17%	16.02%
Houston Oilers	15.77%	16.94%	20.72%	7.00%	7.77%	7.90%	23.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	12.79%	12.01%	9.33%	12.35%	10.68%	9.03%	33.81%
Miami Dolphins	11.38%	10.26%	9.31%	13.55%	11.87%	10.05%	33.58%
Denver Broncos	9.86%	10.41%	7.73%	11.78%	10.16%	9.47%	40.59%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.58%	8.85%	12.76%	8.50%	8.91%	10.00%	43.40%
San Diego Chargers	5.57%	6.61%	5.26%	9.82%	9.36%	8.94%	54.44%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.56%	6.54%	5.69%	9.30%	9.04%	10.17%	53.70%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.85%	4.99%	7.69%	6.01%	7.79%	8.86%	61.81%
New York Jets	1.99%	2.69%	3.65%	5.31%	7.31%	8.12%	70.93%
Seattle Seahawks	0.62%	0.96%	1.06%	2.16%	2.84%	3.63%	88.73%
Indianapolis Colts	0.26%	0.65%	1.04%	1.59%	2.42%	3.55%	90.49%
New England Patriots	0.15%	0.35%	0.71%	0.70%	1.48%	1.95%	94.66%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.13%	0.37%	1.35%	0.55%	1.50%	2.16%	93.94%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	30.51%	20.98%	12.07%	13.05%	7.97%	5.71%	9.71%
Dallas Cowboys	30.43%	21.51%	9.56%	11.74%	8.02%	5.58%	13.16%
New Orleans Saints	12.32%	11.11%	7.23%	18.07%	14.17%	9.85%	27.25%
New York Giants	5.22%	6.11%	3.68%	12.08%	11.74%	10.03%	51.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.59%	5.67%	3.79%	12.44%	10.78%	9.79%	52.94%
Green Bay Packers	4.36%	9.30%	17.20%	4.60%	7.17%	8.76%	48.61%
Minnesota Vikings	3.76%	6.73%	14.21%	4.81%	6.79%	8.97%	54.73%
Detroit Lions	3.58%	7.43%	15.00%	4.67%	7.25%	9.45%	52.62%
Chicago Bears	1.85%	4.43%	10.64%	3.80%	5.81%	7.99%	65.48%
Washington Redskins	1.85%	3.19%	2.46%	6.72%	8.12%	8.77%	68.89%
Atlanta Falcons	0.60%	1.45%	1.22%	3.03%	4.72%	5.51%	83.47%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.45%	0.84%	0.65%	2.37%	3.09%	3.65%	88.95%
Los Angeles Rams	0.43%	0.95%	1.13%	2.29%	3.71%	4.59%	86.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.30%	1.16%	0.33%	0.66%	1.35%	96.15%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	77.61%	77.61%	55.41%	37.16%	23.86%
San Francisco 49ers	77.34%	77.34%	49.86%	27.86%	16.01%
Houston Oilers	62.35%	62.35%	39.87%	24.92%	13.12%
Buffalo Bills	70.07%	70.07%	42.76%	24.82%	11.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	47.74%	47.74%	25.32%	12.39%	5.10%
Denver Broncos	41.09%	41.09%	20.06%	9.12%	3.85%
New York Giants	37.53%	32.08%	14.65%	6.70%	3.35%
Miami Dolphins	44.78%	42.12%	17.57%	6.92%	2.60%
San Diego Chargers	33.38%	29.39%	13.90%	6.20%	2.59%
Green Bay Packers	37.73%	33.77%	14.12%	5.41%	2.41%
Philadelphia Eagles	36.80%	28.97%	11.95%	4.90%	2.28%
Minnesota Vikings	34.78%	28.46%	12.09%	4.98%	2.27%
New Orleans Saints	49.32%	45.68%	17.26%	5.85%	2.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	40.17%	35.31%	14.98%	6.17%	2.19%
Los Angeles Raiders	34.20%	26.79%	10.91%	4.26%	1.55%
Detroit Lions	36.37%	27.75%	10.52%	3.45%	1.46%
New York Jets	24.39%	14.44%	5.41%	2.25%	0.80%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.35%	19.67%	6.42%	2.22%	0.79%
Chicago Bears	28.24%	16.41%	4.89%	1.25%	0.51%
Washington Redskins	26.07%	14.10%	4.26%	1.13%	0.36%
Phoenix Cardinals	9.76%	5.32%	1.82%	0.53%	0.24%
Atlanta Falcons	14.48%	6.91%	2.01%	0.52%	0.21%
Seattle Seahawks	9.69%	4.62%	1.31%	0.44%	0.13%
Los Angeles Rams	11.72%	4.40%	0.96%	0.21%	0.11%
New England Patriots	4.84%	1.86%	0.52%	0.09%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.56%	1.87%	0.51%	0.12%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.50%	1.20%	0.20%	0.05%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	8.60%	2.68%	0.46%	0.08%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.50%	2.34%	3.05%	1.50%	0.83%	3.14%	3.09%	3.45%	0.50%	1.85%	2.58%	2.43%	0.95%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.12%		0.06%	0.17%	0.08%	0.11%	0.09%	0.15%	0.14%	0.02%	0.09%	0.16%	0.14%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.80%	0.26%		1.26%	0.98%	0.40%	1.21%	1.21%	1.75%	0.16%	0.91%	1.38%	1.09%	0.42%
Denver Broncos	1.69%	0.47%	2.02%		1.59%	0.78%	2.12%	1.94%	3.08%	0.42%	1.89%	2.63%	1.66%	0.53%
Houston Oilers	1.98%	0.64%	3.38%	2.82%		1.09%	2.88%	3.13%	3.32%	0.59%	2.11%	3.97%	2.61%	1.12%
Indianapolis Colts	0.18%	0.04%	0.18%	0.20%	0.18%		0.16%	0.19%	0.16%	0.02%	0.09%	0.12%	0.15%	0.10%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.99%	0.53%	2.21%	2.31%	1.94%	0.85%		2.04%	3.26%	0.46%	2.04%	2.57%	2.12%	0.62%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.39%	0.27%	1.63%	1.18%	1.13%	0.49%	1.27%		2.50%	0.24%	1.10%	1.86%	1.16%	0.47%
Miami Dolphins	1.50%	0.48%	2.01%	2.61%	1.51%	0.56%	2.29%	2.93%		0.29%	1.10%	2.41%	1.96%	0.83%
New England Patriots	0.17%	0.04%	0.20%	0.10%	0.12%	0.02%	0.18%	0.15%	0.09%		0.04%	0.11%	0.08%	0.06%
New York Jets	0.85%	0.21%	0.89%	1.09%	0.76%	0.25%	1.12%	1.10%	0.99%	0.08%		1.07%	0.99%	0.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.37%	0.37%	1.79%	1.75%	2.20%	0.81%	2.02%	1.94%	2.40%	0.31%	1.62%		1.60%	0.70%
San Diego Chargers	1.58%	0.32%	1.52%	1.56%	1.48%	0.57%	1.71%	1.39%	2.65%	0.34%	1.56%	2.08%		0.45%
Seattle Seahawks	0.29%	0.06%	0.29%	0.22%	0.28%	0.07%	0.26%	0.25%	0.51%	0.05%	0.23%	0.35%	0.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.52%	0.26%	0.55%	0.45%	0.13%	0.44%	0.57%	0.47%	0.45%	0.11%	0.32%	0.11%	0.48%
Chicago Bears	0.50%		0.48%	1.03%	1.19%	0.57%	1.06%	1.48%	0.86%	1.03%	0.23%	0.49%	0.08%	1.13%
Dallas Cowboys	1.47%	1.91%		2.54%	2.10%	1.15%	2.23%	4.70%	1.94%	2.40%	0.61%	2.34%	0.24%	2.04%
Detroit Lions	0.78%	1.91%	0.71%		2.12%	0.97%	1.90%	2.29%	1.37%	1.55%	0.38%	0.94%	0.25%	1.57%
Green Bay Packers	0.90%	2.20%	0.85%	2.70%		0.98%	2.27%	2.48%	1.82%	1.91%	0.71%	1.17%	0.43%	1.69%
Los Angeles Rams	0.03%	0.36%	0.12%	0.38%	0.42%		0.28%	0.30%	0.22%	0.30%	0.09%	0.20%	0.02%	0.30%
Minnesota Vikings	0.94%	2.07%	0.90%	2.11%	2.07%	0.73%		1.91%	1.63%	1.83%	0.58%	1.25%	0.31%	1.64%
New Orleans Saints	0.97%	1.82%	1.59%	2.40%	1.76%	0.75%	1.87%		2.91%	2.84%	0.92%	1.19%	0.27%	2.96%
New York Giants	1.01%	1.95%	1.14%	2.11%	1.98%	0.91%	1.90%	4.19%		1.49%	0.41%	2.17%	0.29%	1.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.10%	1.72%	0.94%	2.00%	1.78%	0.87%	1.78%	3.51%	1.41%		0.50%	1.74%	0.20%	1.16%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.18%	0.63%	0.12%	0.47%	0.48%	0.12%	0.40%	0.61%	0.20%	0.23%		0.37%	0.05%	0.17%
San Francisco 49ers	1.25%	1.95%	1.69%	2.07%	2.28%	1.01%	1.95%	2.95%	3.39%	3.42%	1.02%		0.29%	2.58%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.06%	0.03%	0.11%	0.11%	0.04%	0.06%	0.07%	0.07%	0.08%	0.02%	0.05%		0.09%
Washington Redskins	0.43%	1.01%	0.40%	1.16%	0.88%	0.47%	0.67%	2.01%	0.49%	0.56%	0.15%	0.72%	0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.33%	3.27%	5.06%	5.96%	0.45%	5.24%	3.57%	7.24%	0.21%	2.45%	4.58%	3.72%	0.68%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%		0.01%	0.09%	0.04%	0.01%	0.04%	0.07%	0.08%		0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.14%	0.03%		0.59%	0.88%	0.08%	0.82%	0.60%	0.95%	0.03%	0.19%	0.54%	0.48%	0.09%
Denver Broncos	3.44%	0.14%	1.26%		3.04%	0.25%	2.73%	1.77%	2.74%	0.12%	0.76%	2.12%	1.37%	0.32%
Houston Oilers	6.94%	0.13%	2.47%	5.39%		0.48%	5.14%	3.39%	4.68%	0.39%	1.88%	4.48%	3.73%	0.77%
Indianapolis Colts	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%		0.04%	0.07%	0.03%		0.02%	0.07%	0.04%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.73%	0.22%	2.03%	3.31%	3.67%	0.29%		2.01%	3.12%	0.16%	1.09%	2.85%	2.39%	0.45%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.83%	0.08%	0.84%	1.20%	1.45%	0.13%	1.48%		1.32%	0.06%	0.35%	1.30%	0.74%	0.13%
Miami Dolphins	3.89%	0.18%	1.05%	1.81%	2.16%	0.13%	2.28%	1.47%		0.12%	0.89%	1.99%	1.27%	0.33%
New England Patriots	0.08%		0.03%	0.03%	0.11%		0.05%	0.06%	0.06%			0.06%	0.03%	0.01%
New York Jets	1.17%	0.02%	0.36%	0.37%	0.76%	0.02%	0.72%	0.31%	0.65%	0.01%		0.61%	0.37%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.54%	0.09%	0.80%	1.63%	2.11%	0.23%	1.83%	1.39%	1.90%	0.12%	0.81%		1.20%	0.33%
San Diego Chargers	2.23%	0.12%	0.99%	1.35%	2.10%	0.13%	1.89%	1.08%	1.65%	0.12%	0.52%	1.58%		0.14%
Seattle Seahawks	0.23%		0.13%	0.15%	0.13%	0.02%	0.16%	0.09%	0.13%		0.05%	0.12%	0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.12%	0.27%	0.20%	0.22%	0.03%	0.19%	0.29%	0.15%	0.17%		0.33%		0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.12%		0.96%	0.24%	0.27%	0.11%	0.19%	0.78%	0.44%	0.47%	0.07%	0.99%		0.25%
Dallas Cowboys	1.38%	3.79%		5.57%	6.32%	0.97%	5.19%	6.55%	6.61%	6.30%	1.10%	8.05%	0.34%	3.24%
Detroit Lions	0.27%	0.42%	1.92%		0.66%	0.23%	0.65%	1.77%	0.85%	0.91%	0.21%	2.06%	0.02%	0.55%
Green Bay Packers	0.51%	0.37%	2.60%	0.78%		0.19%	0.87%	2.35%	1.39%	1.11%	0.30%	2.87%	0.01%	0.77%
Los Angeles Rams		0.09%	0.10%	0.09%	0.10%		0.10%	0.15%	0.04%	0.08%	0.01%	0.17%		0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	0.26%	0.40%	2.07%	0.85%	0.65%	0.30%		2.02%	0.92%	1.02%	0.24%	2.65%	0.03%	0.68%
New Orleans Saints	0.41%	1.29%	1.99%	1.71%	2.03%	0.30%	1.41%		1.41%	1.18%	0.37%	4.19%	0.14%	0.83%
New York Giants	0.28%	0.68%	2.88%	1.28%	1.62%	0.14%	1.44%	1.77%		1.10%	0.14%	2.79%	0.04%	0.49%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.22%	0.65%	2.61%	1.11%	1.23%	0.14%	0.99%	1.49%	0.79%		0.10%	2.11%	0.10%	0.41%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.02%	0.11%	0.35%	0.12%	0.10%	0.01%	0.12%	0.19%	0.10%	0.17%		0.45%	0.02%	0.06%
San Francisco 49ers	1.35%	3.29%	5.89%	4.98%	5.99%	0.92%	4.82%	10.31%	4.50%	4.14%	0.89%		0.29%	2.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.06%		0.04%		0.03%
Washington Redskins	0.08%	0.31%	0.54%	0.29%	0.44%	0.09%	0.39%	0.69%	0.23%	0.33%	0.07%	0.79%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.18%	1.21%	3.16%	5.93%	0.09%	4.17%	2.03%	1.92%	0.05%	0.71%	2.53%	2.58%	0.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.03%	0.02%				0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.54%			0.31%	0.24%	0.01%	0.29%	0.13%	0.23%		0.11%	0.21%	0.15%
Denver Broncos	2.49%	0.02%	0.42%		1.93%	0.08%	0.96%	0.32%	1.16%	0.05%	0.26%	0.91%	0.45%	0.07%
Houston Oilers	6.36%	0.06%	0.67%	3.36%		0.08%	3.98%	1.97%	3.65%	0.11%	0.81%	1.47%	2.17%	0.23%
Indianapolis Colts			0.03%		0.02%							0.02%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.01%	0.08%	0.70%	1.16%	2.25%	0.02%		0.66%	1.54%	0.09%	0.46%	1.40%	0.93%	0.09%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.96%	0.02%	0.17%	0.35%	0.97%	0.04%	0.41%		0.45%	0.04%	0.16%	0.47%	0.18%	0.04%
Miami Dolphins	1.15%		0.33%	0.85%	1.43%	0.02%	1.07%	0.53%		0.02%	0.10%	0.84%	0.55%	0.03%
New England Patriots							0.01%		0.04%			0.03%	0.01%
New York Jets	0.23%		0.17%	0.19%	0.38%		0.37%	0.24%	0.17%	0.01%		0.29%	0.17%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.40%	0.01%	0.14%	0.93%	0.78%	0.02%	1.01%	0.42%	0.68%	0.01%	0.22%		0.48%	0.07%
San Diego Chargers	1.67%	0.02%	0.34%	0.59%	0.93%	0.02%	0.59%	0.31%	0.72%	0.05%	0.32%	0.59%		0.05%
Seattle Seahawks	0.11%		0.01%	0.03%	0.08%		0.06%	0.01%	0.07%		0.01%	0.05%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.01%	0.09%	0.05%	0.05%		0.02%	0.05%	0.05%	0.06%	0.01%	0.10%		0.03%
Chicago Bears	0.04%		0.25%	0.01%	0.06%		0.07%	0.11%	0.12%	0.16%	0.03%	0.36%		0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	0.66%	1.41%		2.88%	3.55%	0.23%	3.12%	5.41%	2.56%	2.34%	0.38%	13.55%	0.08%	0.99%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.11%	0.88%		0.17%	0.04%	0.19%	0.36%	0.31%	0.32%	0.04%	0.88%		0.12%
Green Bay Packers	0.08%	0.09%	1.48%	0.40%		0.01%	0.18%	0.54%	0.46%	0.43%	0.09%	1.34%	0.01%	0.30%
Los Angeles Rams			0.07%	0.01%	0.02%		0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	0.05%	0.10%	1.43%	0.23%	0.29%	0.07%		0.65%	0.55%	0.38%	0.06%	1.04%		0.13%
New Orleans Saints	0.07%	0.21%	1.69%	0.51%	0.57%		0.49%		0.54%	0.46%	0.11%	0.95%		0.25%
New York Giants	0.10%	0.25%	1.43%	0.42%	0.56%	0.11%	0.52%	0.92%		0.28%	0.05%	1.90%	0.01%	0.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.08%	0.26%	0.93%	0.28%	0.39%	0.06%	0.30%	0.71%	0.26%		0.05%	1.41%		0.17%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.04%	0.06%		0.04%	0.07%	0.01%	0.07%		0.12%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.35%	1.15%	9.68%	2.16%	2.92%	0.22%	2.08%	2.39%	3.01%	2.46%	0.45%		0.04%	0.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.02%					0.02%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.02%	0.03%	0.22%	0.08%	0.07%	0.01%	0.07%	0.15%	0.07%	0.07%	0.02%	0.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.02%			0.01%		0.03%			0.06%		0.02%	0.01%		0.02%					0.01%			0.01%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%		0.18%			3.59%		0.55%	0.77%					0.03%		0.62%		0.82%	0.86%		0.76%	0.11%			3.35%			0.20%
Chicago Bears		0.11%			0.03%		0.08%			0.06%		0.06%	0.01%		0.04%					0.03%			0.05%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals						0.01%																			0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)						0.21%		0.08%	0.05%							0.08%		0.04%			0.08%				0.24%			0.01%
Dallas Cowboys		5.76%		0.04%	0.48%		2.14%			5.19%	0.03%	3.32%	1.12%		1.77%		0.03%			0.53%			1.72%	1.61%		0.12%
Denver Broncos	0.05%		0.08%			1.15%		0.15%	0.28%					0.01%		0.22%		0.30%	0.36%		0.25%	0.01%			0.90%			0.09%
Detroit Lions		0.29%			0.08%		0.15%			0.30%	0.01%	0.13%	0.07%		0.19%					0.01%			0.11%	0.11%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers		0.47%			0.14%		0.24%			0.42%	0.01%	0.27%	0.15%		0.23%					0.08%			0.23%	0.15%		0.02%
Houston Oilers	0.07%		0.20%			3.96%		0.51%	0.92%					0.04%		0.83%		1.03%	1.14%		0.72%	0.05%			3.45%		0.01%	0.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.04%		0.07%			1.70%		0.15%	0.29%					0.01%		0.36%		0.37%	0.28%		0.34%	0.03%			1.36%			0.10%
Los Angeles Raiders			0.02%			0.34%		0.09%	0.14%					0.01%		0.07%		0.17%	0.11%		0.06%	0.01%			0.46%		0.02%	0.05%
Los Angeles Rams		0.02%					0.02%			0.03%			0.01%		0.01%								0.02%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%		0.07%			0.73%		0.10%	0.14%							0.19%		0.28%	0.22%		0.11%	0.03%			0.71%			0.01%
Minnesota Vikings		0.47%		0.01%	0.08%		0.19%			0.44%		0.36%	0.18%		0.15%		0.01%			0.06%			0.13%	0.15%		0.04%
New England Patriots						0.01%												0.01%
New Orleans Saints		0.52%			0.12%		0.25%			0.41%		0.33%	0.10%		0.16%					0.10%			0.10%	0.15%		0.01%
New York Giants		0.67%		0.02%	0.13%		0.35%			0.78%		0.46%	0.18%		0.23%		0.01%			0.05%			0.22%	0.23%		0.02%
New York Jets						0.23%		0.06%	0.08%							0.04%		0.10%	0.06%			0.02%			0.18%			0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.58%			0.03%		0.17%			0.46%		0.25%	0.16%		0.23%					0.05%			0.19%	0.16%
Phoenix Cardinals		0.07%			0.02%		0.01%			0.03%		0.04%	0.01%		0.02%					0.01%			0.01%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%		0.06%			0.57%		0.16%	0.13%							0.16%		0.16%	0.15%		0.13%	0.02%			0.54%			0.05%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%		0.06%			0.74%		0.13%	0.18%							0.14%		0.31%	0.17%		0.15%	0.01%			0.64%			0.04%
San Francisco 49ers		3.85%		0.03%	0.31%		1.61%			3.54%	0.02%	1.99%	0.71%		1.24%		0.02%			0.49%			1.16%	0.95%		0.09%
Seattle Seahawks						0.06%		0.01%	0.02%									0.01%			0.02%				0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers										0.01%	0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.09%					0.03%			0.07%		0.06%			0.03%					0.03%			0.03%	0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	72.37%	46.63%	28.99%	Won Super Bowl
Houston Oilers	100.00%	65.82%	37.02%	17.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	67.81%	31.59%	17.41%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	64.00%	33.94%	15.09%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs	61.78%	22.45%	10.78%	4.62%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New York Giants	60.09%	20.01%	8.01%	3.88%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	55.02%	20.47%	8.72%	3.19%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	49.93%	13.24%	5.02%	2.23%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Detroit Lions	50.07%	14.48%	4.49%	1.80%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	39.91%	12.09%	4.26%	1.74%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.22%	13.57%	4.85%	1.73%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Raiders	44.98%	13.69%	4.69%	1.39%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos			55.02%
Kansas City Chiefs				61.78%
Los Angeles Raiders	44.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers		38.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants
Detroit Lions		50.07%
Green Bay Packers	49.93%
Minnesota Vikings				39.91%
New York Giants			60.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		20.55%			18.80%	24.65%
Denver Broncos	13.29%		7.18%
Houston Oilers		14.00%		39.33%	12.49%
Kansas City Chiefs			22.45%
Los Angeles Raiders	9.14%		4.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys			36.69%	14.50%	21.18%
Detroit Lions						14.48%
Green Bay Packers	13.24%
Minnesota Vikings	5.54%					6.55%
New York Giants	8.85%					11.16%
San Francisco 49ers		35.59%		13.32%	18.90%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		2.78%	20.97%	8.27%	1.92%
Denver Broncos	1.81%		3.18%	2.22%		1.51%
Houston Oilers	20.96%	5.48%			4.29%	6.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.36%	2.41%			2.01%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.93%		1.66%	1.18%		0.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers		1.08%	2.99%		0.78%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys		7.80%		3.60%	5.87%	29.36%
Detroit Lions	2.50%			0.75%	1.24%
Green Bay Packers				0.78%	1.09%	3.15%
Minnesota Vikings	1.24%	0.81%	0.93%			1.28%
New York Giants	2.50%	1.38%	1.70%			2.43%
San Francisco 49ers	19.50%		5.59%	2.70%	3.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills		5.91%		0.86%	0.88%				0.85%	1.53%		5.06%
Dallas Cowboys	9.60%		2.78%			10.29%	3.15%	1.54%			1.63%
Denver Broncos		1.30%		0.23%	0.26%				0.27%	0.31%		0.82%
Detroit Lions	0.59%		0.12%			0.68%	0.19%	0.12%			0.10%
Green Bay Packers	0.69%		0.25%			0.71%	0.32%	0.10%			0.16%
Houston Oilers		7.55%		1.05%	1.23%				0.94%	1.50%		5.66%
Kansas City Chiefs		1.77%		0.33%	0.22%				0.29%	0.47%		1.54%
Los Angeles Raiders		0.57%		0.06%	0.12%				0.07%	0.16%		0.41%
Minnesota Vikings	0.64%		0.20%			0.58%	0.11%	0.13%			0.08%
New York Giants	1.46%		0.28%			1.34%	0.35%	0.28%			0.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.54%		0.16%	0.08%				0.10%	0.16%		0.69%
San Francisco 49ers	5.87%		1.90%			5.49%	2.04%	1.13%			0.98%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Dallas Cowboys 28.99% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

50.70%

Win Prob

73.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

62.96%

Win Prob

60.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

35.49%

Win Prob

57.68%

Houston Oilers 17.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

59.75%

Win Prob

63.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

56.62%

Win Prob

49.99%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

42.11%

Win Prob

42.32%

San Francisco 49ers 17.41% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

52.48%

Win Prob

71.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

61.73%

Win Prob

39.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

33.72%

Win Prob

53.71%

Buffalo Bills 15.09% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

38.52%

Win Prob

64.50%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

61.79%

Win Prob

50.01%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

39.17%

Win Prob

38.10%

Kansas City Chiefs 4.62% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.78%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

59.00%

Win Prob

43.47%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

38.31%

Win Prob

35.98%

New York Giants 3.88% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.09%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

55.77%

Win Prob

37.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

31.21%

Win Prob

29.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

37.63%

Win Prob

48.83%

Denver Broncos 3.19% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.02%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

64.92%

Win Prob

39.27%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

36.47%

Win Prob

36.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.75%

Win Prob

31.86%

Green Bay Packers 2.23% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

62.75%

Win Prob

36.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

31.84%

Win Prob

36.60%

Detroit Lions 1.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

55.68%

Win Prob

24.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

37.78%

Win Prob

39.31%

Minnesota Vikings 1.74% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.91%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

54.18%

Win Prob

32.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

30.05%

Win Prob

32.16%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

36.78%

Win Prob

42.95%

Pittsburgh Steelers 1.73% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.22%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.50%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

61.65%

Win Prob

32.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

39.88%

Win Prob

41.32%

Los Angeles Raiders 1.39% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.98%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

66.76%

Win Prob

32.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

35.39%

Win Prob

27.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

41.01%

Win Prob

27.01%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1993-09-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-30	1473.83	1483.45	43.59%	56.14%	-19.35	0-1
1993-09-12	New Orleans Saints	L 31-34	1454.48	1582.32	36.72%	63.01%	-6.85	0-2
1993-09-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 30-37	1447.63	1598.37	25.53%	74.19%	-7.27	0-3
1993-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-45	1440.36	1482.55	48.71%	51.01%	-27.74	0-4
1993-10-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-6	1412.62	1463.45	37.87%	61.85%	-9.99	0-5
1993-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-24	1402.63	1457.32	46.92%	52.80%	+13.92	1-5
1993-10-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-15	1416.55	1600.78	22.04%	77.68%	+27.70	2-5
1993-10-31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-31	1444.25	1354.00	67.03%	32.69%	-19.07	2-6
1993-11-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 13-0	1425.18	1422.87	45.28%	54.44%	+21.12	3-6
1993-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-14	1446.30	1690.09	22.94%	76.79%	+29.77	4-6
1993-11-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1476.07	1452.82	58.05%	41.67%	+7.77	5-6
1993-12-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-33	1483.84	1590.00	30.71%	69.01%	-13.23	5-7
1993-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1470.61	1673.67	27.34%	72.38%	+13.48	6-7
1993-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-30	1484.09	1445.69	50.46%	49.26%	-19.57	6-8
1993-12-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-21	1464.52	1334.92	63.24%	36.48%	-13.61	6-9
1994-01-02	Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-27	1450.91	1490.78	49.05%	50.67%	-21.76	6-10
1993-09-05	New England Patriots	W 38-14	1562.65	1401.13	75.35%	24.37%	+12.87	1-0
1993-09-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1575.52	1610.53	40.03%	59.69%	+11.12	2-0
1993-09-26	Miami Dolphins	L 13-22	1586.64	1513.51	64.83%	34.90%	-20.92	2-1
1993-10-03	New York Giants	W 17-14	1565.72	1516.52	61.63%	38.09%	+7.11	3-1
1993-10-11	Houston Oilers	W 35-7	1572.83	1528.53	60.97%	38.76%	+22.07	4-1
1993-10-24	@ New York Jets	W 19-10	1594.90	1456.76	64.37%	35.35%	+11.42	5-1
1993-11-01	Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1606.32	1478.99	71.54%	28.18%	+11.36	6-1
1993-11-07	@ New England Patriots	W 13-10	1617.68	1334.91	80.51%	19.21%	+3.59	7-1
1993-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-23	1621.27	1553.69	54.64%	45.08%	-28.19	7-2
1993-11-21	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-9	1593.08	1399.07	78.63%	21.09%	+8.50	8-2
1993-11-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-23	1601.58	1558.83	51.09%	48.63%	-21.98	8-3
1993-12-05	Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-25	1579.60	1483.31	67.79%	31.93%	-7.29	8-4
1993-12-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-7	1572.31	1507.86	54.20%	45.53%	+8.48	9-4
1993-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 47-34	1580.79	1572.74	46.10%	53.62%	+20.80	10-4
1993-12-26	New York Jets	W 16-14	1601.59	1498.57	68.63%	31.10%	+4.74	11-4
1994-01-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-10	1606.33	1327.99	80.11%	19.61%	+9.45	12-4
1993-09-05	New York Giants	L 20-26	1462.83	1475.59	52.95%	46.78%	-13.95	0-1
1993-09-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-10	1448.88	1521.26	34.99%	64.73%	-6.53	0-2
1993-09-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 47-17	1442.35	1375.83	63.96%	35.77%	+21.10	1-2
1993-10-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 6-0	1463.45	1412.62	61.85%	37.87%	+9.98	2-2
1993-10-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-6	1473.43	1613.22	26.75%	72.97%	+26.03	3-2
1993-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 12-19	1499.46	1528.87	50.55%	49.17%	-14.39	3-3
1993-10-31	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-17	1485.07	1523.60	39.55%	60.18%	-15.93	3-4
1993-11-07	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-16	1469.14	1497.65	50.68%	49.04%	-7.71	3-5
1993-11-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1461.43	1519.12	36.94%	62.78%	+11.69	4-5
1993-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-17	1473.12	1569.14	31.97%	67.76%	+10.31	5-5
1993-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 10-6	1483.43	1516.74	40.27%	59.46%	+12.79	6-5
1993-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 30-17	1496.22	1554.73	46.37%	53.35%	+20.69	7-5
1993-12-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-13	1516.91	1359.06	66.92%	32.80%	-12.46	7-6
1993-12-18	Denver Broncos	L 3-13	1504.45	1575.37	44.60%	55.12%	-15.19	7-7
1993-12-26	Detroit Lions	L 14-20	1489.26	1475.62	56.70%	43.02%	-14.94	7-8
1994-01-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-20	1474.32	1346.96	62.94%	36.78%	-25.33	7-9
1993-09-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-27	1430.11	1477.15	38.38%	61.34%	-14.90	0-1
1993-09-12	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-9	1415.21	1436.39	51.74%	47.98%	-9.64	0-2
1993-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-34	1405.57	1461.77	37.14%	62.58%	-20.78	0-3
1993-09-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-19	1384.79	1399.95	52.60%	47.12%	-16.98	0-4
1993-10-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 15-17	1367.81	1547.76	22.47%	77.25%	-3.43	0-5
1993-10-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-28	1364.38	1485.81	37.58%	62.14%	-13.42	0-6
1993-10-24	@ Houston Oilers	L 12-28	1350.96	1520.19	23.56%	76.16%	-10.15	0-7
1993-11-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-24	1340.81	1545.41	27.16%	72.56%	-8.28	0-8
1993-11-14	Houston Oilers	L 3-38	1332.53	1540.48	26.78%	72.94%	-17.07	0-9
1993-11-21	@ New York Jets	L 12-17	1315.46	1506.86	21.34%	78.38%	-5.14	0-10
1993-11-28	Los Angeles Raiders	W 16-10	1310.32	1502.03	28.66%	71.07%	+18.72	1-10
1993-12-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 8-21	1329.04	1669.66	10.31%	89.41%	-4.01	1-11
1993-12-12	@ New England Patriots	L 2-7	1325.03	1316.41	46.18%	53.54%	-11.12	1-12
1993-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 15-3	1313.91	1393.58	43.36%	56.36%	+21.01	2-12
1993-12-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-17	1334.92	1464.52	36.48%	63.24%	+13.60	3-12
1994-01-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1348.52	1497.21	25.76%	73.96%	-7.34	3-13
1993-09-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-14	1477.15	1430.11	61.34%	38.38%	+14.90	1-0
1993-09-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-13	1492.05	1619.80	36.73%	62.99%	+21.43	2-0
1993-09-19	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 19-16	1513.48	1523.43	43.54%	56.18%	+10.47	3-0
1993-09-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-23	1523.95	1446.03	56.11%	43.61%	-21.77	3-1
1993-10-10	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1502.18	1548.48	48.13%	51.60%	-16.37	3-2
1993-10-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1485.81	1364.38	62.14%	37.58%	+13.42	4-2
1993-10-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-23	1499.23	1558.26	46.30%	53.42%	+12.85	5-2
1993-11-07	Denver Broncos	L 14-29	1512.08	1522.65	53.26%	46.46%	-22.19	5-3
1993-11-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 5-22	1489.89	1406.23	56.92%	42.80%	-25.25	5-4
1993-11-21	Houston Oilers	L 20-27	1464.64	1557.56	41.50%	58.22%	-11.82	5-5
1993-11-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-17	1452.82	1476.07	41.67%	58.05%	-7.77	5-6
1993-12-05	New Orleans Saints	W 17-13	1445.05	1556.22	38.97%	60.75%	+13.07	6-6
1993-12-12	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-19	1458.12	1603.23	26.15%	73.57%	-3.99	6-7
1993-12-19	New England Patriots	L 17-20	1454.13	1327.52	71.46%	28.26%	-13.31	6-8
1993-12-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 42-14	1440.82	1372.58	54.74%	44.98%	+25.62	7-8
1994-01-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-16	1466.44	1507.37	39.22%	60.51%	-11.17	7-9
1993-09-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-35	1636.12	1568.94	54.59%	45.13%	-25.59	0-1
1993-09-12	Buffalo Bills	L 10-13	1610.53	1575.52	59.69%	40.03%	-11.12	0-2
1993-09-19	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 17-10	1599.41	1451.38	65.66%	34.06%	+9.70	1-2
1993-10-03	Green Bay Packers	W 36-14	1609.11	1511.69	67.93%	31.79%	+16.06	2-2
1993-10-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-3	1625.17	1448.14	69.31%	30.42%	+16.05	3-2
1993-10-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 26-17	1641.22	1614.18	58.58%	41.14%	+13.29	4-2
1993-10-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-10	1654.51	1569.12	57.17%	42.55%	+16.51	5-2
1993-11-07	New York Giants	W 31-9	1671.02	1550.31	70.77%	28.96%	+14.63	6-2
1993-11-14	Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-15	1685.65	1462.30	81.31%	18.42%	+4.44	7-2
1993-11-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-27	1690.09	1446.30	76.79%	22.94%	-29.77	7-3
1993-11-25	Miami Dolphins	L 14-16	1660.32	1583.42	65.32%	34.41%	-9.94	7-4
1993-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1650.38	1515.06	72.46%	27.26%	+7.20	8-4
1993-12-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-20	1657.58	1506.95	66.00%	33.72%	+14.97	9-4
1993-12-18	@ New York Jets	W 28-7	1672.55	1514.77	66.91%	32.81%	+16.19	10-4
1993-12-26	Washington Redskins	W 38-3	1688.74	1465.27	81.32%	18.41%	+11.74	11-4
1994-01-02	@ New York Giants	W 16-13	1700.48	1581.29	61.84%	37.88%	+7.07	12-4
1993-09-05	@ New York Jets	W 26-20	1489.46	1440.80	51.94%	47.79%	+12.60	1-0
1993-09-12	San Diego Chargers	W 34-17	1502.06	1549.22	48.00%	51.72%	+22.94	2-0
1993-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-15	1525.00	1515.95	46.24%	53.48%	-14.08	2-1
1993-10-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 35-13	1510.92	1467.80	60.81%	38.92%	+19.66	3-1
1993-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 27-30	1530.58	1495.63	49.96%	49.76%	-9.32	3-2
1993-10-18	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-23	1521.26	1504.01	57.21%	42.51%	-10.66	3-3
1993-10-31	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-17	1510.60	1428.42	66.00%	33.72%	+12.05	4-3
1993-11-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 29-14	1522.65	1512.08	46.46%	53.26%	+22.19	5-3
1993-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 23-26	1544.84	1508.88	59.82%	39.90%	-11.14	5-4
1993-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-13	1533.70	1581.88	47.85%	51.87%	+27.33	6-4
1993-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-9	1561.03	1431.48	63.24%	36.49%	+11.12	7-4
1993-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-13	1572.15	1517.63	52.78%	46.94%	-9.84	7-5
1993-12-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-21	1562.31	1594.36	50.17%	49.55%	+13.06	8-5
1993-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-3	1575.37	1504.45	55.12%	44.60%	+15.18	9-5
1993-12-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-17	1590.55	1363.46	81.63%	18.10%	-23.23	9-6
1994-01-02	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 30-33	1567.32	1482.68	57.06%	42.66%	-10.63	9-7
1993-09-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-13	1483.45	1473.83	56.14%	43.59%	+19.34	1-0
1993-09-12	@ New England Patriots	W 19-16	1502.79	1388.27	61.21%	38.51%	+7.18	2-0
1993-09-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-14	1509.97	1589.17	34.11%	65.61%	-12.18	2-1
1993-09-26	Phoenix Cardinals	W 26-20	1497.79	1441.68	62.57%	37.15%	+9.80	3-1
1993-10-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-27	1507.59	1354.73	66.28%	33.44%	-29.39	3-2
1993-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-10	1478.20	1444.09	59.57%	40.16%	+19.33	4-2
1993-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-13	1497.53	1443.41	52.72%	47.00%	+8.76	5-2
1993-10-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-27	1506.29	1543.26	39.76%	59.96%	+11.17	6-2
1993-11-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-0	1517.46	1373.07	73.49%	26.24%	+13.56	7-2
1993-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-26	1531.02	1536.17	44.22%	55.50%	-14.28	7-3
1993-11-25	Chicago Bears	L 6-10	1516.74	1483.43	59.46%	40.27%	-12.79	7-4
1993-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-13	1503.95	1484.65	57.50%	42.22%	-22.30	7-5
1993-12-12	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 21-14	1481.65	1474.60	45.96%	53.76%	+15.30	8-5
1993-12-19	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-55	1496.95	1660.18	32.12%	67.60%	-21.33	8-6
1993-12-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-14	1475.62	1489.26	43.02%	56.70%	+14.94	9-6
1994-01-02	Green Bay Packers	W 30-20	1490.56	1559.06	44.95%	54.78%	+18.64	10-6
1993-09-05	Los Angeles Rams	W 36-6	1504.33	1456.57	61.44%	38.28%	+22.57	1-0
1993-09-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-20	1526.90	1588.13	45.98%	53.74%	-8.57	1-1
1993-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-15	1518.33	1527.79	43.61%	56.11%	-6.64	1-2
1993-10-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-36	1511.69	1609.11	31.79%	67.93%	-16.06	1-3
1993-10-10	Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1495.63	1530.58	49.76%	49.96%	+9.31	2-3
1993-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-14	1504.94	1372.66	63.60%	36.12%	+18.66	3-3
1993-10-31	Chicago Bears	W 17-3	1523.60	1485.07	60.18%	39.55%	+15.93	4-3
1993-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-23	1539.53	1539.16	45.00%	54.72%	-12.82	4-4
1993-11-14	@ New Orleans Saints	W 19-17	1526.71	1579.93	37.54%	62.18%	+9.46	5-4
1993-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 26-17	1536.17	1531.02	55.50%	44.22%	+14.28	6-4
1993-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-10	1550.45	1375.06	76.79%	22.93%	+4.28	7-4
1993-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-30	1554.73	1496.22	53.35%	46.37%	-20.69	7-5
1993-12-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1534.04	1527.46	45.89%	53.83%	+15.32	8-5
1993-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-21	1549.36	1491.97	62.74%	36.98%	-13.50	8-6
1993-12-26	Los Angeles Raiders	W 28-0	1535.86	1505.89	58.99%	40.73%	+23.20	9-6
1994-01-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-30	1559.06	1490.56	54.78%	44.95%	-18.63	9-7
1993-09-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-33	1551.57	1566.34	42.86%	56.86%	-15.98	0-1
1993-09-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-0	1535.59	1543.08	53.70%	46.02%	+27.13	1-1
1993-09-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-18	1562.72	1526.28	50.18%	49.54%	-5.40	1-2
1993-09-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-28	1557.32	1450.31	69.12%	30.61%	-28.79	1-3
1993-10-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-35	1528.53	1572.83	38.76%	60.97%	-22.08	1-4
1993-10-17	@ New England Patriots	W 28-14	1506.45	1358.66	65.63%	34.09%	+13.74	2-4
1993-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-12	1520.19	1350.96	76.16%	23.56%	+10.16	3-4
1993-11-07	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-14	1530.35	1416.37	69.96%	29.76%	+10.13	4-4
1993-11-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-3	1540.48	1332.53	72.94%	26.78%	+17.08	5-4
1993-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-20	1557.56	1464.64	58.22%	41.50%	+11.81	6-4
1993-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-3	1569.37	1554.54	56.87%	42.85%	+20.63	7-4
1993-12-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 33-17	1590.00	1483.84	69.01%	30.71%	+13.23	8-4
1993-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-17	1603.23	1458.12	73.57%	26.15%	+3.99	9-4
1993-12-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-17	1607.22	1544.03	54.02%	45.70%	+14.75	10-4
1993-12-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 10-7	1621.97	1681.51	36.69%	63.03%	+11.75	11-4
1994-01-02	New York Jets	W 24-0	1633.72	1493.84	72.98%	26.74%	+14.11	12-4
1993-09-05	Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1445.65	1527.83	43.01%	56.72%	-9.26	0-1
1993-09-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 9-6	1436.39	1415.21	47.98%	51.74%	+9.64	1-1
1993-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-10	1446.03	1523.95	43.61%	56.11%	+21.77	2-1
1993-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-35	1467.80	1510.92	38.92%	60.81%	-19.66	2-2
1993-10-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-27	1448.14	1625.17	30.42%	69.31%	-16.05	2-3
1993-10-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-41	1432.09	1564.85	27.55%	72.17%	-11.10	2-4
1993-10-31	New England Patriots	W 9-6	1420.99	1341.26	65.68%	34.04%	+6.35	3-4
1993-11-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-30	1427.34	1467.63	39.30%	60.42%	-10.37	3-5
1993-11-14	New York Jets	L 17-31	1416.97	1488.96	44.45%	55.27%	-17.90	3-6
1993-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-23	1399.07	1593.08	21.09%	78.63%	-8.50	3-7
1993-11-29	San Diego Chargers	L 0-31	1390.57	1493.60	40.09%	59.63%	-24.04	3-8
1993-12-05	@ New York Jets	W 9-6	1366.53	1519.80	25.26%	74.46%	+13.88	4-8
1993-12-12	@ New York Giants	L 6-20	1380.41	1580.14	20.55%	79.17%	-8.29	4-9
1993-12-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-20	1372.12	1499.38	36.79%	62.93%	-12.53	4-10
1993-12-26	@ New England Patriots	L 0-38	1359.59	1340.84	47.64%	52.09%	-31.60	4-11
1994-01-02	Buffalo Bills	L 10-30	1327.99	1606.33	19.61%	80.11%	-9.45	4-12
1993-09-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-3	1522.65	1409.82	60.98%	38.75%	+20.43	1-0
1993-09-12	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-30	1543.08	1535.59	46.02%	53.70%	-27.13	1-1
1993-09-20	Denver Broncos	W 15-7	1515.95	1525.00	53.48%	46.24%	+14.08	2-1
1993-10-03	Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-9	1530.03	1512.96	57.19%	42.53%	+17.73	3-1
1993-10-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-15	1547.76	1367.81	77.25%	22.47%	+3.43	4-1
1993-10-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1551.19	1487.39	54.10%	45.62%	+8.50	5-1
1993-10-31	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-30	1559.69	1575.96	42.65%	57.07%	-20.53	5-2
1993-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 23-16	1539.16	1539.53	54.72%	45.00%	+12.82	6-2
1993-11-14	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 31-20	1551.98	1505.36	51.64%	48.08%	+17.16	7-2
1993-11-21	Chicago Bears	L 17-19	1569.14	1473.12	67.76%	31.97%	-10.31	7-3
1993-11-28	Buffalo Bills	W 23-7	1558.83	1601.58	48.63%	51.09%	+21.99	8-3
1993-12-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-16	1580.82	1420.37	67.25%	32.47%	+13.54	9-3
1993-12-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1594.36	1562.31	49.55%	50.17%	-13.06	9-4
1993-12-19	San Diego Chargers	W 28-24	1581.30	1512.14	64.30%	35.42%	+7.63	10-4
1993-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-30	1588.93	1505.47	56.90%	42.83%	-27.37	10-5
1994-01-02	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-24	1561.56	1412.89	73.96%	25.76%	+8.78	11-5
1993-09-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-7	1491.92	1544.55	47.22%	52.51%	+23.29	1-0
1993-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1515.21	1398.20	61.55%	38.18%	+8.22	2-0
1993-09-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-19	1523.43	1513.48	56.18%	43.54%	-10.47	2-1
1993-10-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-24	1512.96	1530.03	42.53%	57.19%	-17.73	2-2
1993-10-10	New York Jets	W 24-20	1495.23	1465.54	58.95%	40.77%	+8.78	3-2
1993-10-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1504.01	1521.26	42.51%	57.21%	+10.66	4-2
1993-10-31	San Diego Chargers	L 23-30	1514.67	1478.89	59.80%	39.93%	-17.02	4-3
1993-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-14	1497.65	1469.14	49.04%	50.68%	+7.71	5-3
1993-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-31	1505.36	1551.98	48.08%	51.64%	-17.16	5-4
1993-11-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 12-7	1488.20	1507.42	42.23%	57.49%	+13.83	6-4
1993-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-16	1502.03	1310.32	71.07%	28.66%	-18.72	6-5
1993-12-05	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-24	1483.31	1579.60	31.93%	67.79%	+7.29	7-5
1993-12-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-23	1490.60	1406.82	66.20%	33.52%	+7.22	8-5
1993-12-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1497.82	1371.53	71.42%	28.30%	+8.07	9-5
1993-12-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-28	1505.89	1535.86	40.73%	58.99%	-23.21	9-6
1994-01-02	Denver Broncos	W 33-30	1482.68	1567.32	42.66%	57.06%	+10.64	10-6
1993-09-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-36	1456.57	1504.33	38.28%	61.44%	-22.58	0-1
1993-09-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-0	1433.99	1491.52	46.51%	53.21%	+29.75	1-1
1993-09-19	@ New York Giants	L 10-20	1463.74	1503.10	39.43%	60.29%	-13.43	1-2
1993-09-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 28-13	1450.31	1557.32	30.61%	69.12%	+28.79	2-2
1993-10-03	New Orleans Saints	L 6-37	1479.10	1609.84	36.33%	63.39%	-21.78	2-3
1993-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-30	1457.32	1402.63	52.80%	46.92%	-13.91	2-4
1993-10-24	Detroit Lions	L 13-16	1443.41	1497.53	47.00%	52.72%	-8.76	2-5
1993-10-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-40	1434.65	1611.45	22.79%	76.93%	-11.78	2-6
1993-11-14	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-13	1422.87	1425.18	54.44%	45.28%	-21.12	2-7
1993-11-21	Washington Redskins	W 10-6	1401.75	1463.12	45.97%	53.76%	+11.57	3-7
1993-11-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-35	1413.32	1657.31	22.92%	76.81%	-12.35	3-8
1993-12-05	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-38	1400.97	1453.13	37.69%	62.03%	-21.47	3-9
1993-12-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1379.50	1543.15	24.15%	75.58%	+14.08	4-9
1993-12-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-15	1393.58	1313.91	56.36%	43.36%	-21.00	4-10
1993-12-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-42	1372.58	1440.82	44.98%	54.74%	-25.62	4-11
1994-01-02	Chicago Bears	W 20-6	1346.96	1474.32	36.78%	62.94%	+25.33	5-11
1993-09-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-20	1527.83	1445.65	56.72%	43.01%	+9.26	1-0
1993-09-12	New York Jets	L 14-24	1537.09	1428.20	69.35%	30.38%	-23.58	1-1
1993-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 22-13	1513.51	1586.64	34.90%	64.83%	+20.91	2-1
1993-10-04	Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1534.42	1565.24	50.35%	49.37%	+14.06	3-1
1993-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-14	1548.48	1502.18	51.60%	48.13%	+16.37	4-1
1993-10-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 41-27	1564.85	1432.09	72.17%	27.55%	+11.11	5-1
1993-10-31	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-10	1575.96	1559.69	57.07%	42.65%	+20.53	6-1
1993-11-07	@ New York Jets	L 10-27	1596.49	1460.55	64.08%	35.64%	-28.42	6-2
1993-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-14	1568.07	1528.89	50.57%	49.15%	+11.83	7-2
1993-11-21	New England Patriots	W 17-13	1579.90	1331.32	83.39%	16.33%	+3.52	8-2
1993-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 16-14	1583.42	1660.32	34.41%	65.32%	+9.94	9-2
1993-12-05	New York Giants	L 14-19	1593.36	1566.04	58.62%	41.10%	-14.10	9-3
1993-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-21	1579.26	1537.51	60.62%	39.10%	-6.52	9-4
1993-12-19	Buffalo Bills	L 34-47	1572.74	1580.79	53.62%	46.10%	-20.80	9-5
1993-12-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-45	1551.94	1504.51	51.76%	47.96%	-27.85	9-6
1994-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 27-33	1524.09	1372.44	66.13%	33.59%	-17.42	9-7
1993-09-05	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-24	1544.55	1491.92	52.51%	47.22%	-23.29	0-1
1993-09-12	Chicago Bears	W 10-7	1521.26	1448.88	64.73%	34.99%	+6.53	1-1
1993-09-26	Green Bay Packers	W 15-13	1527.79	1518.33	56.11%	43.61%	+6.64	2-1
1993-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-38	1534.43	1597.16	36.27%	63.45%	-17.03	2-2
1993-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 15-0	1517.40	1384.13	72.23%	27.49%	+11.47	3-2
1993-10-25	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-12	1528.87	1499.46	49.17%	50.55%	+14.39	4-2
1993-10-31	Detroit Lions	L 27-30	1543.26	1506.29	59.96%	39.76%	-11.17	4-3
1993-11-07	San Diego Chargers	L 17-30	1532.09	1495.91	59.85%	39.87%	-23.21	4-4
1993-11-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-23	1508.88	1544.84	39.90%	59.82%	+11.15	5-4
1993-11-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-23	1520.03	1348.45	68.64%	31.08%	-26.62	5-5
1993-11-28	New Orleans Saints	L 14-17	1493.41	1547.46	47.01%	52.71%	-8.76	5-6
1993-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-0	1484.65	1503.95	42.22%	57.50%	+22.30	6-6
1993-12-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-37	1506.95	1657.58	33.72%	66.00%	-14.98	6-7
1993-12-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-17	1491.97	1549.36	36.98%	62.74%	+13.50	7-7
1993-12-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-10	1505.47	1588.93	42.83%	56.90%	+27.37	8-7
1993-12-31	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-9	1532.84	1453.53	56.31%	43.41%	+10.45	9-7
1993-09-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1401.13	1562.65	24.37%	75.35%	-12.86	0-1
1993-09-12	Detroit Lions	L 16-19	1388.27	1502.79	38.51%	61.21%	-7.18	0-2
1993-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-17	1381.09	1389.98	53.50%	46.22%	-9.97	0-3
1993-09-26	@ New York Jets	L 7-45	1371.12	1451.78	33.92%	65.80%	-22.52	0-4
1993-10-10	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-21	1348.60	1431.88	33.58%	66.14%	+10.06	1-4
1993-10-17	Houston Oilers	L 14-28	1358.66	1506.45	34.09%	65.63%	-13.74	1-5
1993-10-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-10	1344.92	1424.75	34.03%	65.70%	-3.66	1-6
1993-10-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-9	1341.26	1420.99	34.04%	65.68%	-6.35	1-7
1993-11-07	Buffalo Bills	L 10-13	1334.91	1617.68	19.21%	80.51%	-3.59	1-8
1993-11-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-17	1331.32	1579.90	16.33%	83.39%	-3.52	1-9
1993-11-28	New York Jets	L 0-6	1327.80	1512.01	29.55%	70.17%	-7.80	1-10
1993-12-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-17	1320.00	1533.91	19.25%	80.47%	-3.59	1-11
1993-12-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 7-2	1316.41	1325.03	53.54%	46.18%	+11.11	2-11
1993-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1327.52	1454.13	28.26%	71.46%	+13.32	3-11
1993-12-26	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-0	1340.84	1359.59	52.09%	47.64%	+31.60	4-11
1994-01-02	Miami Dolphins	W 33-27	1372.44	1524.09	33.59%	66.13%	+17.42	5-11
1993-09-05	Houston Oilers	W 33-21	1566.34	1551.57	56.86%	42.86%	+15.98	1-0
1993-09-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-31	1582.32	1454.48	63.01%	36.72%	+6.85	2-0
1993-09-19	Detroit Lions	W 14-3	1589.17	1509.97	65.61%	34.11%	+12.18	3-0
1993-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1601.35	1605.65	54.16%	45.57%	+8.49	4-0
1993-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-6	1609.84	1479.10	63.39%	36.33%	+21.78	5-0
1993-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-37	1631.62	1527.42	59.79%	39.93%	-30.84	5-1
1993-10-24	Atlanta Falcons	L 15-26	1600.78	1416.55	77.68%	22.04%	-27.71	5-2
1993-10-31	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-17	1573.07	1445.44	62.98%	36.74%	+6.86	6-2
1993-11-14	Green Bay Packers	L 17-19	1579.93	1526.71	62.18%	37.54%	-9.46	6-3
1993-11-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-42	1570.47	1634.30	36.12%	63.60%	-23.01	6-4
1993-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1547.46	1493.41	52.71%	47.01%	+8.76	7-4
1993-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-17	1556.22	1445.05	60.75%	38.97%	-13.07	7-5
1993-12-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-23	1543.15	1379.50	75.58%	24.15%	-14.08	7-6
1993-12-20	New York Giants	L 14-24	1529.07	1588.43	46.25%	53.47%	-15.74	7-7
1993-12-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 26-37	1513.33	1511.91	45.16%	54.57%	-16.12	7-8
1994-01-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1497.21	1348.52	73.96%	25.76%	+7.35	8-8
1993-09-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-20	1475.59	1462.83	46.78%	52.95%	+13.96	1-0
1993-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-7	1489.55	1389.38	68.27%	31.45%	+13.55	2-0
1993-09-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-10	1503.10	1463.74	60.29%	39.43%	+13.42	3-0
1993-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1516.52	1565.72	38.09%	61.63%	-7.10	3-1
1993-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 41-7	1509.42	1551.19	39.10%	60.62%	+38.02	4-1
1993-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-10	1547.44	1587.19	49.07%	50.66%	+18.07	5-1
1993-10-31	New York Jets	L 6-10	1565.51	1445.34	70.70%	29.02%	-15.20	5-2
1993-11-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-31	1550.31	1671.02	28.96%	70.77%	-14.63	5-3
1993-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 20-6	1535.68	1478.00	62.78%	36.94%	+14.88	6-3
1993-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-3	1550.56	1517.07	49.75%	49.97%	+10.75	7-3
1993-11-28	Phoenix Cardinals	W 19-17	1561.31	1457.86	68.68%	31.04%	+4.73	8-3
1993-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 19-14	1566.04	1593.36	41.10%	58.62%	+14.10	9-3
1993-12-12	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-6	1580.14	1380.41	79.17%	20.55%	+8.29	10-3
1993-12-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-14	1588.43	1529.07	53.47%	46.25%	+15.74	11-3
1993-12-26	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 6-17	1604.17	1467.91	64.12%	35.60%	-22.88	11-4
1994-01-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-16	1581.29	1700.48	37.88%	61.84%	-7.06	11-5
1993-09-05	Denver Broncos	L 20-26	1440.80	1489.46	47.79%	51.94%	-12.60	0-1
1993-09-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-14	1428.20	1537.09	30.38%	69.35%	+23.58	1-1
1993-09-26	New England Patriots	W 45-7	1451.78	1371.12	65.80%	33.92%	+22.52	2-1
1993-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 30-35	1474.30	1604.46	36.41%	63.32%	-8.76	2-2
1993-10-10	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-24	1465.54	1495.23	40.77%	58.95%	-8.78	2-3
1993-10-24	Buffalo Bills	L 10-19	1456.76	1594.90	35.35%	64.37%	-11.42	2-4
1993-10-31	@ New York Giants	W 10-6	1445.34	1565.51	29.02%	70.70%	+15.21	3-4
1993-11-07	Miami Dolphins	W 27-10	1460.55	1596.49	35.64%	64.08%	+28.41	4-4
1993-11-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1488.96	1416.97	55.27%	44.45%	+17.90	5-4
1993-11-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-12	1506.86	1315.46	78.38%	21.34%	+5.15	6-4
1993-11-28	@ New England Patriots	W 6-0	1512.01	1327.80	70.17%	29.55%	+7.79	7-4
1993-12-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-9	1519.80	1366.53	74.46%	25.26%	-13.87	7-5
1993-12-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 3-0	1505.93	1454.52	52.33%	47.39%	+8.84	8-5
1993-12-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1514.77	1672.55	32.81%	66.91%	-16.20	8-6
1993-12-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-16	1498.57	1601.59	31.10%	68.63%	-4.73	8-7
1994-01-02	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-24	1493.84	1633.72	26.74%	72.98%	-14.12	8-8
1993-09-05	Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-17	1581.20	1436.77	73.49%	26.23%	+6.93	1-0
1993-09-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1588.13	1526.90	53.74%	45.98%	+8.57	2-0
1993-09-19	Washington Redskins	W 34-31	1596.70	1573.00	58.12%	41.60%	+7.76	3-0
1993-10-03	@ New York Jets	W 35-30	1604.46	1474.30	63.32%	36.41%	+8.76	4-0
1993-10-10	Chicago Bears	L 6-17	1613.22	1473.43	72.97%	26.75%	-26.03	4-1
1993-10-17	@ New York Giants	L 10-21	1587.19	1547.44	50.66%	49.07%	-18.07	4-2
1993-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-23	1569.12	1654.51	42.55%	57.17%	-16.52	4-3
1993-11-07	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 3-16	1552.60	1438.59	61.14%	38.58%	-23.71	4-4
1993-11-14	Miami Dolphins	L 14-19	1528.89	1568.07	49.15%	50.57%	-11.82	4-5
1993-11-21	New York Giants	L 3-7	1517.07	1550.56	49.97%	49.75%	-10.76	4-6
1993-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-14	1506.31	1451.55	52.81%	46.91%	+8.75	5-6
1993-12-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-23	1515.06	1650.38	27.26%	72.46%	-7.20	5-7
1993-12-12	Buffalo Bills	L 7-10	1507.86	1572.31	45.53%	54.20%	-8.48	5-8
1993-12-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 20-10	1499.38	1372.12	62.93%	36.79%	+12.53	6-8
1993-12-26	New Orleans Saints	W 37-26	1511.91	1513.33	54.57%	45.16%	+16.11	7-8
1994-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 37-34	1528.02	1669.77	26.53%	73.19%	+13.64	8-8
1993-09-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1436.77	1581.20	26.23%	73.49%	-6.92	0-1
1993-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1429.85	1594.53	24.04%	75.68%	+21.53	1-1
1993-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1451.38	1599.41	34.06%	65.66%	-9.70	1-2
1993-09-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-26	1441.68	1497.79	37.15%	62.57%	-9.80	1-3
1993-10-10	New England Patriots	L 21-23	1431.88	1348.60	66.14%	33.58%	-10.06	1-4
1993-10-17	Washington Redskins	W 36-6	1421.82	1513.17	41.72%	58.00%	+34.17	2-4
1993-10-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-28	1455.99	1600.90	26.18%	73.54%	-10.55	2-5
1993-10-31	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1445.44	1573.07	36.74%	62.98%	-6.85	2-6
1993-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-3	1438.59	1552.60	38.58%	61.14%	+23.71	3-6
1993-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 15-20	1462.30	1685.65	18.42%	81.31%	-4.44	3-7
1993-11-28	@ New York Giants	L 17-19	1457.86	1561.31	31.04%	68.68%	-4.73	3-8
1993-12-05	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-10	1453.13	1400.97	62.03%	37.69%	+21.47	4-8
1993-12-12	Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1474.60	1481.65	53.76%	45.96%	-15.30	4-9
1993-12-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-27	1459.30	1399.60	53.52%	46.20%	+8.61	5-9
1993-12-26	New York Giants	W 17-6	1467.91	1604.17	35.60%	64.12%	+22.87	6-9
1994-01-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-10	1490.78	1450.91	50.67%	49.05%	+21.77	7-9
1993-09-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-24	1506.02	1605.30	40.61%	59.11%	-14.50	0-1
1993-09-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-27	1491.52	1433.99	53.21%	46.51%	-29.75	0-2
1993-09-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-7	1461.77	1405.57	62.58%	37.14%	+20.78	1-2
1993-09-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 45-17	1482.55	1440.36	51.01%	48.71%	+27.74	2-2
1993-10-10	San Diego Chargers	W 16-3	1510.29	1504.52	55.59%	44.13%	+17.13	3-2
1993-10-17	New Orleans Saints	W 37-14	1527.42	1631.62	39.93%	59.79%	+30.84	4-2
1993-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-28	1558.26	1499.23	53.42%	46.30%	-12.85	4-3
1993-11-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-16	1545.41	1340.81	72.56%	27.16%	+8.28	5-3
1993-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 23-0	1553.69	1621.27	45.08%	54.64%	+28.19	6-3
1993-11-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-37	1581.88	1533.70	51.87%	47.85%	-27.34	6-4
1993-11-28	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-23	1554.54	1569.37	42.85%	56.87%	-20.63	6-5
1993-12-05	New England Patriots	W 17-14	1533.91	1320.00	80.47%	19.25%	+3.60	7-5
1993-12-13	@ Miami Dolphins	W 21-20	1537.51	1579.26	39.10%	60.62%	+6.52	8-5
1993-12-19	Houston Oilers	L 17-26	1544.03	1607.22	45.70%	54.02%	-14.76	8-6
1993-12-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-16	1529.27	1390.99	64.39%	35.33%	-21.90	8-7
1994-01-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-9	1507.37	1466.44	60.51%	39.22%	+11.17	9-7
1993-09-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 18-12	1542.07	1405.36	72.62%	27.10%	+7.15	1-0
1993-09-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-34	1549.22	1502.06	51.72%	48.00%	-22.94	1-1
1993-09-19	Houston Oilers	W 18-17	1526.28	1562.72	49.54%	50.18%	+5.40	2-1
1993-10-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-31	1531.68	1416.93	61.24%	38.48%	-27.16	2-2
1993-10-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-16	1504.52	1510.29	44.13%	55.59%	-17.13	2-3
1993-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-17	1487.39	1551.19	45.62%	54.10%	-8.50	2-4
1993-10-31	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 30-23	1478.89	1514.67	39.93%	59.80%	+17.02	3-4
1993-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-17	1495.91	1532.09	39.87%	59.85%	+23.21	4-4
1993-11-14	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1519.12	1461.43	62.78%	36.94%	-11.70	4-5
1993-11-21	Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-12	1507.42	1488.20	57.49%	42.23%	-13.82	4-6
1993-11-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-0	1493.60	1390.57	59.63%	40.09%	+24.03	5-6
1993-12-05	Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1517.63	1572.15	46.94%	52.78%	+9.83	6-6
1993-12-12	Green Bay Packers	L 13-20	1527.46	1534.04	53.83%	45.89%	-15.32	6-7
1993-12-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-28	1512.14	1581.30	35.42%	64.30%	-7.63	6-8
1993-12-27	Miami Dolphins	W 45-20	1504.51	1551.94	47.96%	51.76%	+27.85	7-8
1994-01-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-17	1532.36	1386.69	65.36%	34.37%	+14.33	8-8
1993-09-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-13	1605.30	1506.02	59.11%	40.61%	+14.50	1-0
1993-09-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-23	1619.80	1492.05	62.99%	36.73%	-21.43	1-1
1993-09-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-30	1598.37	1447.63	74.19%	25.53%	+7.28	2-1
1993-09-26	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-16	1605.65	1601.35	45.57%	54.16%	-8.49	2-2
1993-10-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-19	1597.16	1534.43	63.45%	36.27%	+17.02	3-2
1993-10-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-26	1614.18	1641.22	41.14%	58.58%	-13.28	3-3
1993-10-24	Phoenix Cardinals	W 28-14	1600.90	1455.99	73.54%	26.18%	+10.55	4-3
1993-10-31	Los Angeles Rams	W 40-17	1611.45	1434.65	76.93%	22.79%	+11.78	5-3
1993-11-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 45-21	1623.23	1359.52	78.75%	20.97%	+11.07	6-3
1993-11-22	New Orleans Saints	W 42-7	1634.30	1570.47	63.60%	36.12%	+23.01	7-3
1993-11-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 35-10	1657.31	1413.32	76.81%	22.92%	+12.35	8-3
1993-12-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-8	1669.66	1329.04	89.41%	10.31%	+4.01	9-3
1993-12-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-27	1673.67	1470.61	72.38%	27.34%	-13.49	9-4
1993-12-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 55-17	1660.18	1496.95	67.60%	32.12%	+21.33	10-4
1993-12-25	Houston Oilers	L 7-10	1681.51	1621.97	63.03%	36.69%	-11.74	10-5
1994-01-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 34-37	1669.77	1528.02	73.19%	26.53%	-13.63	10-6
1993-09-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 12-18	1405.36	1542.07	27.10%	72.62%	-7.16	0-1
1993-09-12	Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-17	1398.20	1515.21	38.18%	61.55%	-8.22	0-2
1993-09-19	@ New England Patriots	W 17-14	1389.98	1381.09	46.22%	53.50%	+9.97	1-2
1993-09-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-10	1399.95	1384.79	47.12%	52.60%	+16.98	2-2
1993-10-03	San Diego Chargers	W 31-14	1416.93	1531.68	38.48%	61.24%	+27.16	3-2
1993-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-30	1444.09	1478.20	40.16%	59.57%	-19.34	3-3
1993-10-24	New England Patriots	W 10-9	1424.75	1344.92	65.70%	34.03%	+3.67	4-3
1993-10-31	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-28	1428.42	1510.60	33.72%	66.00%	-12.05	4-4
1993-11-07	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-24	1416.37	1530.35	29.76%	69.96%	-10.14	4-5
1993-11-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 22-5	1406.23	1489.89	42.80%	56.92%	+25.25	5-5
1993-11-28	Denver Broncos	L 9-17	1431.48	1561.03	36.49%	63.24%	-11.11	5-6
1993-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-31	1420.37	1580.82	32.47%	67.25%	-13.55	5-7
1993-12-12	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 23-27	1406.82	1490.60	33.52%	66.20%	-7.22	5-8
1993-12-19	Phoenix Cardinals	L 27-30	1399.60	1459.30	46.20%	53.52%	-8.61	5-9
1993-12-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-6	1390.99	1529.27	35.33%	64.39%	+21.90	6-9
1994-01-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-34	1412.89	1561.56	25.76%	73.96%	-8.78	6-10
1993-09-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-27	1409.82	1522.65	38.75%	60.98%	-20.44	0-1
1993-09-12	@ New York Giants	L 7-23	1389.38	1489.55	31.45%	68.27%	-13.55	0-2
1993-09-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-47	1375.83	1442.35	35.77%	63.96%	-21.10	0-3
1993-10-03	Detroit Lions	W 27-10	1354.73	1507.59	33.44%	66.28%	+29.40	1-3
1993-10-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-15	1384.13	1517.40	27.49%	72.23%	-11.47	1-4
1993-10-24	Green Bay Packers	L 14-37	1372.66	1504.94	36.12%	63.60%	-18.66	1-5
1993-10-31	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-24	1354.00	1444.25	32.69%	67.03%	+19.07	2-5
1993-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-23	1373.07	1517.46	26.24%	73.49%	-13.55	2-6
1993-11-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-45	1359.52	1623.23	20.97%	78.75%	-11.07	2-7
1993-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-10	1348.45	1520.03	31.08%	68.64%	+26.61	3-7
1993-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-13	1375.06	1550.45	22.93%	76.79%	-4.28	3-8
1993-12-05	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1370.78	1442.81	44.45%	55.28%	-11.72	3-9
1993-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1359.06	1516.91	32.80%	66.92%	+12.47	4-9
1993-12-19	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-27	1371.53	1497.82	28.30%	71.42%	-8.07	4-10
1993-12-26	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1363.46	1590.55	18.10%	81.63%	+23.23	5-10
1994-01-02	San Diego Chargers	L 17-32	1386.69	1532.36	34.37%	65.36%	-14.33	5-11
1993-09-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-16	1568.94	1636.12	45.13%	54.59%	+25.59	1-0
1993-09-12	Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-17	1594.53	1429.85	75.68%	24.04%	-21.53	1-1
1993-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-34	1573.00	1596.70	41.60%	58.12%	-7.76	1-2
1993-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-17	1565.24	1534.42	49.37%	50.35%	-14.05	1-3
1993-10-10	New York Giants	L 7-41	1551.19	1509.42	60.62%	39.10%	-38.02	1-4
1993-10-17	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 6-36	1513.17	1421.82	58.00%	41.72%	-34.18	1-5
1993-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-24	1478.99	1606.32	28.18%	71.54%	-11.36	1-6
1993-11-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-24	1467.63	1427.34	60.42%	39.30%	+10.37	2-6
1993-11-14	@ New York Giants	L 6-20	1478.00	1535.68	36.94%	62.78%	-14.88	2-7
1993-11-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-10	1463.12	1401.75	53.76%	45.97%	-11.57	2-8
1993-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1451.55	1506.31	46.91%	52.81%	-8.74	2-9
1993-12-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-17	1442.81	1370.78	55.28%	44.45%	+11.71	3-9
1993-12-11	New York Jets	L 0-3	1454.52	1505.93	47.39%	52.33%	-8.83	3-10
1993-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-17	1445.69	1484.09	49.26%	50.46%	+19.58	4-10
1993-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-38	1465.27	1688.74	18.41%	81.32%	-11.74	4-11
1993-12-31	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-14	1453.53	1532.84	43.41%	56.31%	-10.45	4-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1994-01-15	Los Angeles Raiders	W 29-23	1615.78	1517.98	68.14%	31.86%	+8.38	1-0
1994-01-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-13	1624.16	1596.99	58.74%	41.26%	+18.25	2-0
1994-01-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-30	1642.41	1733.77	37.15%	62.85%	-16.44	2-1
1994-01-16	Green Bay Packers	W 27-17	1707.55	1551.25	74.96%	25.04%	+8.49	1-0
1994-01-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 38-21	1716.04	1680.45	59.91%	40.09%	+17.73	2-0
1994-01-30	Buffalo Bills	W 30-13	1733.77	1642.41	62.85%	37.15%	+16.44	3-0
1994-01-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-42	1556.69	1493.32	54.18%	45.82%	-24.66	0-1
1994-01-08	Green Bay Packers	L 24-28	1509.20	1540.43	50.43%	49.57%	-10.82	0-1
1994-01-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-24	1540.43	1509.20	49.57%	50.43%	+10.82	1-0
1994-01-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1551.25	1707.55	25.04%	74.96%	-8.49	1-1
1994-01-16	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-28	1647.83	1577.38	64.63%	35.37%	-19.61	0-1
1994-01-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1570.34	1518.54	62.13%	37.87%	+7.04	1-0
1994-01-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 28-20	1577.38	1647.83	35.37%	64.63%	+19.61	2-0
1994-01-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-30	1596.99	1624.16	41.26%	58.74%	-18.25	2-1
1994-01-09	Denver Broncos	W 42-24	1493.32	1556.69	45.82%	54.18%	+24.66	1-0
1994-01-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-29	1517.98	1615.78	31.86%	68.14%	-8.37	1-1
1994-01-09	@ New York Giants	L 10-17	1543.29	1574.23	40.73%	59.27%	-11.56	0-1
1994-01-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-10	1574.23	1543.29	59.27%	40.73%	+11.56	1-0
1994-01-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-44	1585.79	1656.14	35.39%	64.61%	-24.31	1-1
1994-01-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1518.54	1570.34	37.87%	62.13%	-7.04	0-1
1994-01-15	New York Giants	W 44-3	1656.14	1585.79	64.61%	35.39%	+24.31	1-0
1994-01-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-38	1680.45	1716.04	40.09%	59.91%	-17.73	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1993-12-26	18.10%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1363.46	17	@ Denver Broncos	1590.55	10
2	1993-10-24	22.04%	Atlanta Falcons	1416.55	26	@ New Orleans Saints	1600.78	15
3	1993-11-21	22.94%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1446.30	27	Dallas Cowboys	1690.09	14
4	1993-09-12	24.04%	Phoenix Cardinals	1429.85	17	@ Washington Redskins	1594.53	10
5	1993-12-12	24.15%	Los Angeles Rams	1379.50	23	@ New Orleans Saints	1543.15	20
6	1993-12-05	25.26%	Indianapolis Colts	1366.53	9	@ New York Jets	1519.80	6
7	1994-01-03	26.53%	Philadelphia Eagles	1528.02	37	@ San Francisco 49ers	1669.77	34
8	1993-10-10	26.75%	Chicago Bears	1473.43	17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1613.22	6
9	1993-12-11	27.34%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1470.61	27	San Francisco 49ers	1673.67	24
10	1993-12-19	28.26%	New England Patriots	1327.52	20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1454.13	17
11	1993-11-28	28.66%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1310.32	16	Los Angeles Raiders	1502.03	10
12	1993-10-31	29.02%	New York Jets	1445.34	10	@ New York Giants	1565.51	6
13	1993-09-12	30.38%	New York Jets	1428.20	24	@ Miami Dolphins	1537.09	14
14	1993-09-26	30.61%	Los Angeles Rams	1450.31	28	@ Houston Oilers	1557.32	13
15	1993-11-21	31.08%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1348.45	23	Minnesota Vikings	1520.03	10
16	1993-12-05	31.93%	Los Angeles Raiders	1483.31	25	@ Buffalo Bills	1579.60	24
17	1993-11-21	31.97%	Chicago Bears	1473.12	19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1569.14	17
18	1993-10-31	32.69%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1354.00	31	@ Atlanta Falcons	1444.25	24
19	1993-12-12	32.80%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1359.06	13	Chicago Bears	1516.91	10
20	1993-10-03	33.44%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1354.73	27	Detroit Lions	1507.59	10
21	1993-10-10	33.58%	New England Patriots	1348.60	23	@ Phoenix Cardinals	1431.88	21
22	1994-01-02	33.59%	@ New England Patriots	1372.44	33	Miami Dolphins	1524.09	27
23	1993-11-25	34.41%	Miami Dolphins	1583.42	16	@ Dallas Cowboys	1660.32	14
24	1993-09-26	34.90%	Miami Dolphins	1513.51	22	@ Buffalo Bills	1586.64	13
25	1993-12-26	35.33%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1390.99	16	Pittsburgh Steelers	1529.27	6

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1993-10-10	38.02	New York Giants	41	1509.42	39.10%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1551.19	60.62%
2	1993-10-17	34.18	@ Phoenix Cardinals	36	1421.82	41.72%	Washington Redskins	6	1513.17	58.00%
3	1993-12-26	31.60	@ New England Patriots	38	1340.84	52.09%	Indianapolis Colts	0	1359.59	47.64%
4	1993-10-17	30.84	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	37	1527.42	39.93%	New Orleans Saints	14	1631.62	59.79%
5	1993-11-21	29.77	@ Atlanta Falcons	27	1446.30	22.94%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1690.09	76.79%
6	1993-09-12	29.75	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1433.99	46.51%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1491.52	53.21%
7	1993-10-03	29.40	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	1354.73	33.44%	Detroit Lions	10	1507.59	66.28%
8	1993-09-26	28.79	Los Angeles Rams	28	1450.31	30.61%	@ Houston Oilers	13	1557.32	69.12%
9	1993-11-07	28.42	@ New York Jets	27	1460.55	35.64%	Miami Dolphins	10	1596.49	64.08%
10	1993-11-15	28.19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	23	1553.69	45.08%	Buffalo Bills	0	1621.27	54.64%
11	1993-12-27	27.85	@ San Diego Chargers	45	1504.51	47.96%	Miami Dolphins	20	1551.94	51.76%
12	1993-09-27	27.74	Pittsburgh Steelers	45	1482.55	51.01%	@ Atlanta Falcons	17	1440.36	48.71%
13	1993-10-24	27.71	Atlanta Falcons	26	1416.55	22.04%	@ New Orleans Saints	15	1600.78	77.68%
14	1993-12-26	27.37	@ Minnesota Vikings	30	1505.47	42.83%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1588.93	56.90%
15	1993-11-21	27.34	@ Denver Broncos	37	1533.70	47.85%	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1581.88	51.87%
16	1993-10-03	27.16	@ Seattle Seahawks	31	1416.93	38.48%	San Diego Chargers	14	1531.68	61.24%
17	1993-09-12	27.13	@ Houston Oilers	30	1535.59	53.70%	Kansas City Chiefs	0	1543.08	46.02%
18	1993-11-21	26.62	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	1348.45	31.08%	Minnesota Vikings	10	1520.03	68.64%
19	1993-10-10	26.03	Chicago Bears	17	1473.43	26.75%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	6	1613.22	72.97%
20	1993-12-26	25.62	Cleveland Browns (1st)	42	1440.82	54.74%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1372.58	44.98%
21	1993-09-06	25.59	@ Washington Redskins	35	1568.94	45.13%	Dallas Cowboys	16	1636.12	54.59%
22	1994-01-02	25.33	@ Los Angeles Rams	20	1346.96	36.78%	Chicago Bears	6	1474.32	62.94%
23	1993-11-14	25.25	@ Seattle Seahawks	22	1406.23	42.80%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	1489.89	56.92%
24	1994-01-09 *	24.66	@ Los Angeles Raiders	42	1493.32	45.82%	Denver Broncos	24	1556.69	54.18%
25	1994-01-15 *	24.31	@ San Francisco 49ers	44	1656.14	64.61%	New York Giants	3	1585.79	35.39%