1992 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Dallas Cowboys

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1977

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1991

Biggest Overachiever

Indianapolis Colts

2.97 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.03 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Seattle Seahawks

3.17 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.17 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	11	5	.688	—	299	225	+74	9.66	+1.34
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	352	258	+94	9.62	+0.38
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	9	.438	4	272	275	-3	7.90	-0.90
4	Cincinnati Bengals	5	11	.312	6	274	364	-90	6.54	-1.54

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	11	5	.688	—	381	283	+98	10.41	+0.59
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	340	281	+59	9.42	+1.58
3	Indianapolis Colts	9	7	.562	2	216	302	-86	6.03	+2.97
4	New York Jets	4	12	.250	7	220	315	-95	6.47	-2.47
5	New England Patriots	2	14	.125	9	205	363	-158	4.77	-2.77

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	11	5	.688	—	335	241	+94	8.09	+2.91
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	348	282	+66	9.90	+0.10
3	Denver Broncos	8	8	.500	3	262	329	-67	8.75	-0.75
4	Los Angeles Raiders	7	9	.438	4	249	281	-32	7.10	-0.10
5	Seattle Seahawks	2	14	.125	9	140	312	-172	5.17	-3.17

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	11	5	.688	—	374	249	+125	8.80	+2.20
2	Green Bay Packers	9	7	.562	2	276	296	-20	6.98	+2.02
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	6	267	365	-98	5.95	-0.95
4	Chicago Bears	5	11	.312	6	295	361	-66	7.58	-2.58
5	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	6	273	332	-59	7.51	-2.51

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	13	3	.812	—	409	243	+166	10.26	+2.74
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	2	354	245	+109	9.51	+1.49
3	Washington Redskins Playoffs	9	7	.562	4	300	255	+45	10.13	-1.13
4	New York Giants	6	10	.375	7	306	367	-61	7.41	-1.41
5	Phoenix Cardinals	4	12	.250	9	243	332	-89	4.94	-0.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	14	2	.875	—	431	236	+195	11.69	+2.31
2	New Orleans Saints Playoffs	12	4	.750	2	330	202	+128	10.25	+1.75
3	Atlanta Falcons	6	10	.375	8	327	414	-87	7.51	-1.51
4	Los Angeles Rams	6	10	.375	8	313	383	-70	5.64	+0.36

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

San Diego Chargers 17

Kansas City Chiefs 0

Jan 2

Buffalo Bills 41

Houston Oilers 38

Jan 3

Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 3

Jan 9

Miami Dolphins 31

San Diego Chargers 0

Jan 10

Conference Championship

Buffalo Bills 29

Miami Dolphins 10

Jan 17

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 24

Minnesota Vikings 7

Jan 2

Philadelphia Eagles 36

New Orleans Saints 20

Jan 3

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 20

Washington Redskins 13

Jan 9

Dallas Cowboys 34

Philadelphia Eagles 10

Jan 10

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 30

San Francisco 49ers 20

Jan 17

Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys 52

Buffalo Bills 17

Jan 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1757	14	11.69	+2.31	96.33%	5	9	11	12	13	14	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1706	13	10.26	+2.74	96.88%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1674	12	10.25	+1.75	90.46%	4	7	9	10	11	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1656	11	9.51	+1.49	86.37%	2	6	8	10	11	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1628	11	8.80	+2.20	92.78%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1614	10	9.62	+0.38	68.16%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1611	9	10.13	-1.13	35.97%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1608	11	8.09	+2.91	96.82%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1580	11	10.41	+0.59	73.18%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1569	10	9.90	+0.10	62.22%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1560	11	9.42	+1.58	88.45%	3	6	8	9	11	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1551	11	9.66	+1.34	84.01%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1511	9	6.98	+2.02	91.56%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1484	7	7.10	-0.10	58.72%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1481	8	8.75	-0.75	45.14%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1463	5	7.51	-2.51	14.81%	0	4	6	7	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1450	7	7.90	-0.90	41.91%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1448	6	7.41	-1.41	32.42%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1446	6	7.51	-1.51	29.32%	1	5	6	7	9	11	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1417	5	7.58	-2.58	13.36%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1411	9	6.03	+2.97	97.04%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1409	6	5.64	+0.36	69.75%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1370	4	6.47	-2.47	14.80%	0	3	5	6	8	10	13
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1358	4	4.94	-0.94	41.57%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1351	5	6.54	-1.54	29.58%	1	3	5	7	8	10	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1310	5	5.95	-0.95	41.19%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1302	2	5.17	-3.17	6.38%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1276	2	4.77	-2.77	8.75%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.6 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.2 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.1 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-4 (0.9 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-4 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	3-1 (3.0 exp.)	—	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	—	3-0 (2.4 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.34%	1.34%	3.35%	2.68%	1.79%	0.89%	—	11.38%
7–13	1.34%	2.23%	5.36%	5.36%	1.79%	1.79%	0.22%	18.08%
14–20	3.35%	5.36%	9.38%	6.25%	3.79%	1.56%	0.45%	30.13%
21–27	2.68%	5.36%	6.25%	6.25%	1.34%	0.89%	—	22.77%
28–34	1.79%	1.79%	3.79%	1.34%	1.79%	0.45%	0.22%	11.16%
35–41	0.89%	1.79%	1.56%	0.89%	0.45%	—	—	5.58%
42+	—	0.22%	0.45%	—	0.22%	—	—	0.89%
Total	11.38%	18.08%	30.13%	22.77%	11.16%	5.58%	0.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.73	18.73	+0.00
SD	9.94	9.94	15.48
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	56	56	+39
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	12.50%	6.25%	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.44	25.88	-5.44
SD	9.20	15.71	20.52
CV	0.45	0.61	—
Max	35	56	+34
Min	3	0	-39

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	17.69	+6.12
SD	12.87	9.57	19.65
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	41	37	+38
Min	3	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.44	22.56	-4.12
SD	11.54	8.41	15.38
CV	0.63	0.37	—
Max	41	38	+24
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	22.75	-5.62
SD	8.62	10.47	14.52
CV	0.50	0.46	—
Max	31	42	+20
Min	0	3	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	50.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	17.19	-0.19
SD	9.35	6.41	10.85
CV	0.55	0.37	—
Max	37	30	+16
Min	0	6	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.56	15.19	+10.38
SD	8.78	9.61	14.12
CV	0.34	0.63	—
Max	41	31	+34
Min	7	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.38	20.56	-4.19
SD	9.34	10.81	14.99
CV	0.57	0.53	—
Max	27	42	+14
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.06	20.75	-3.69
SD	9.45	10.21	16.50
CV	0.55	0.49	—
Max	38	38	+31
Min	3	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	18.50	-1.25
SD	9.79	8.91	16.17
CV	0.57	0.48	—
Max	38	31	+28
Min	3	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	16.12	+5.88
SD	6.10	8.50	10.99
CV	0.28	0.53	—
Max	38	29	+27
Min	14	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.50	18.88	-5.38
SD	10.30	12.40	15.59
CV	0.76	0.66	—
Max	34	38	+11
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	17.62	+4.12
SD	9.75	8.04	14.74
CV	0.45	0.46	—
Max	42	35	+22
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.56	17.56	-2.00
SD	6.80	12.06	17.06
CV	0.44	0.69	—
Max	28	36	+24
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.56	23.94	-4.38
SD	10.11	10.08	14.58
CV	0.52	0.42	—
Max	38	40	+21
Min	7	0	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	17.56	+3.69
SD	8.68	8.33	14.65
CV	0.41	0.47	—
Max	38	31	+28
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	50.00%	—	12.50%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.38	15.56	+7.81
SD	10.06	7.72	14.42
CV	0.43	0.50	—
Max	42	31	+35
Min	6	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.81	22.69	-9.88
SD	9.93	11.49	13.29
CV	0.78	0.51	—
Max	37	41	+21
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.62	12.62	+8.00
SD	8.00	6.60	9.48
CV	0.39	0.52	—
Max	37	21	+23
Min	10	0	-6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.12	22.94	-3.81
SD	10.95	11.46	15.80
CV	0.57	0.50	—
Max	35	47	+20
Min	0	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%	37.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.75	19.69	-5.94
SD	8.75	6.54	10.43
CV	0.64	0.33	—
Max	30	31	+12
Min	0	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.12	15.31	+6.81
SD	10.37	8.70	11.86
CV	0.47	0.57	—
Max	47	34	+30
Min	7	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.19	20.75	-5.56
SD	7.87	10.99	12.71
CV	0.52	0.53	—
Max	27	41	+19
Min	3	0	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.69	14.06	+4.62
SD	8.85	8.54	13.40
CV	0.47	0.61	—
Max	30	30	+24
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	—	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	15.06	+5.88
SD	10.54	7.66	15.99
CV	0.50	0.51	—
Max	36	27	+26
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.94	14.75	+12.19
SD	10.21	8.11	13.54
CV	0.38	0.55	—
Max	56	34	+39
Min	14	3	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	8.75	19.50	-10.75
SD	6.03	6.32	8.77
CV	0.69	0.32	—
Max	17	31	+4
Min	0	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.69	22.81	-6.12
SD	7.79	10.95	15.82
CV	0.47	0.48	—
Max	31	38	+28
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.75	15.94	+2.81
SD	9.79	9.10	16.31
CV	0.52	0.57	—
Max	41	35	+38
Min	3	3	-19

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Indianapolis Colts	9	6.03	+2.97
2	San Diego Chargers	11	8.09	+2.91
3	Dallas Cowboys	13	10.26	+2.74
4	San Francisco 49ers	14	11.69	+2.31
5	Minnesota Vikings	11	8.80	+2.20

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Seattle Seahawks	2	5.17	-3.17
2	New England Patriots	2	4.77	-2.77
3	Chicago Bears	5	7.58	-2.58
4	Detroit Lions	5	7.51	-2.51
5	New York Jets	4	6.47	-2.47

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Indianapolis Colts	5	Nov 29 – Dec 27	1 in 136
2	Green Bay Packers	6	Nov 15 – Dec 20	1 in 88
3	Miami Dolphins	6	Sep 14 – Oct 18	1 in 38
4	San Diego Chargers	7	Nov 15 – Dec 27	1 in 34
5	Phoenix Cardinals	2	Nov 1 – Nov 8	1 in 20

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	6	Nov 2 – Dec 7	1 in 112
2	Seattle Seahawks	8	Sep 27 – Nov 22	1 in 31
3	New England Patriots	9	Sep 13 – Nov 8	1 in 23
4	Detroit Lions	4	Sep 20 – Oct 15	1 in 20
5	Miami Dolphins	2	Oct 25 – Nov 1	1 in 20

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Oilers	42.83%	32.80%	17.64%	6.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers	41.27%	33.75%	18.14%	6.84%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.48%	23.45%	38.45%	25.62%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.42%	10.00%	25.77%	60.81%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	61.29%	30.26%	6.51%	1.63%	0.31%
Miami Dolphins	33.23%	47.24%	14.40%	4.16%	0.97%
New York Jets	3.35%	12.20%	36.96%	30.06%	17.43%
Indianapolis Colts	1.75%	7.87%	28.43%	35.85%	26.10%
New England Patriots	0.38%	2.43%	13.70%	28.30%	55.19%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Kansas City Chiefs	51.12%	26.23%	14.00%	6.90%	1.75%
Denver Broncos	25.83%	31.66%	23.29%	14.44%	4.78%
San Diego Chargers	14.49%	23.82%	28.96%	22.70%	10.03%
Los Angeles Raiders	7.56%	15.07%	24.90%	33.56%	18.91%
Seattle Seahawks	1.00%	3.22%	8.85%	22.40%	64.53%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	42.32%	25.00%	16.49%	10.80%	5.39%
Chicago Bears	20.82%	23.33%	22.45%	19.38%	14.02%
Detroit Lions	20.15%	23.61%	22.31%	19.48%	14.45%
Green Bay Packers	11.96%	18.43%	22.83%	25.14%	21.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.75%	9.63%	15.92%	25.20%	44.50%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	36.20%	30.51%	22.34%	9.56%	1.39%
Washington Redskins	35.57%	30.31%	23.08%	9.69%	1.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	23.81%	28.23%	30.62%	14.75%	2.59%
New York Giants	4.24%	9.94%	20.02%	48.14%	17.66%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.18%	1.01%	3.94%	17.86%	77.01%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	68.46%	26.19%	4.90%	0.45%
New Orleans Saints	27.80%	55.51%	14.58%	2.11%
Atlanta Falcons	3.33%	14.90%	58.19%	23.58%
Los Angeles Rams	0.41%	3.40%	22.33%	73.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Buffalo Bills	25.35%	19.64%	15.30%	11.67%	9.12%	7.08%	4.34%	2.79%	2.27%	1.08%	0.71%	0.49%	0.10%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	18.06%	16.36%	14.69%	11.44%	9.55%	8.25%	6.63%	4.98%	3.74%	2.64%	1.61%	1.10%	0.70%	0.25%
Houston Oilers	15.65%	14.18%	13.04%	12.39%	10.90%	9.12%	7.43%	5.86%	4.35%	3.32%	1.98%	1.16%	0.53%	0.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.24%	14.28%	13.67%	12.41%	11.02%	9.86%	7.55%	6.06%	4.20%	2.91%	1.99%	1.27%	0.47%	0.07%
Miami Dolphins	10.65%	11.72%	13.33%	13.28%	13.24%	11.87%	8.25%	5.96%	4.61%	2.72%	2.05%	1.35%	0.60%	0.37%
Denver Broncos	7.11%	8.52%	9.91%	10.47%	11.63%	10.28%	9.75%	8.98%	6.82%	6.11%	4.76%	2.72%	1.91%	1.03%
San Diego Chargers	2.99%	5.32%	6.42%	8.00%	8.86%	9.74%	11.00%	10.58%	9.41%	8.96%	7.25%	5.42%	3.95%	2.10%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.11%	4.68%	5.64%	7.47%	7.96%	9.91%	11.05%	11.70%	10.29%	9.25%	7.89%	6.35%	3.30%	1.40%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.35%	2.34%	3.12%	4.84%	5.43%	6.87%	9.48%	9.97%	10.57%	11.48%	11.38%	9.61%	8.39%	5.17%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.48%	1.01%	1.75%	2.68%	3.98%	5.32%	7.09%	9.07%	10.44%	12.64%	14.24%	15.11%	10.24%	5.95%
New York Jets	0.57%	1.02%	1.53%	2.85%	3.94%	5.27%	6.92%	9.39%	12.68%	11.89%	12.32%	12.38%	9.91%	9.33%
Indianapolis Colts	0.27%	0.57%	1.04%	1.59%	2.64%	3.87%	5.70%	7.22%	10.18%	11.47%	12.95%	14.56%	14.57%	13.37%
Seattle Seahawks	0.14%	0.23%	0.44%	0.65%	1.12%	1.65%	2.83%	3.99%	5.14%	8.63%	10.62%	14.13%	23.44%	26.99%
New England Patriots	0.03%	0.13%	0.12%	0.26%	0.61%	0.91%	1.98%	3.45%	5.30%	6.90%	10.25%	14.35%	21.89%	33.82%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	42.05%	22.81%	12.85%	8.56%	5.67%	3.28%	2.03%	1.40%	0.71%	0.39%	0.18%	0.05%	0.02%	—
New Orleans Saints	14.92%	13.53%	15.92%	15.47%	12.83%	9.59%	5.96%	4.58%	3.36%	1.84%	1.00%	0.66%	0.23%	0.11%
Dallas Cowboys	13.98%	17.09%	14.17%	12.86%	11.40%	8.95%	7.09%	5.02%	3.60%	2.97%	1.50%	0.90%	0.33%	0.14%
Washington Redskins	13.20%	16.83%	13.45%	13.14%	11.08%	9.13%	7.88%	5.27%	3.73%	2.99%	1.71%	0.92%	0.47%	0.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.13%	11.67%	12.02%	11.85%	11.55%	10.49%	9.88%	7.86%	5.86%	4.55%	3.17%	1.70%	0.85%	0.42%
Minnesota Vikings	3.81%	7.54%	11.26%	11.29%	11.03%	11.22%	9.56%	8.75%	6.89%	6.45%	5.24%	3.36%	2.35%	1.25%
Chicago Bears	0.72%	2.31%	5.29%	5.98%	7.85%	9.80%	10.01%	10.01%	10.78%	9.48%	9.39%	7.66%	6.48%	4.24%
Detroit Lions	0.90%	2.61%	4.70%	6.37%	7.34%	9.16%	9.80%	10.34%	10.29%	9.20%	9.83%	8.07%	7.12%	4.27%
Atlanta Falcons	1.04%	1.85%	3.11%	3.99%	6.37%	7.63%	10.39%	13.85%	14.10%	11.81%	9.17%	8.53%	5.31%	2.85%
New York Giants	0.91%	2.10%	3.02%	4.28%	5.38%	6.47%	9.19%	9.76%	11.27%	12.69%	12.15%	9.68%	7.39%	5.71%
Green Bay Packers	0.26%	1.12%	2.87%	3.76%	5.18%	7.59%	8.39%	9.48%	10.57%	11.02%	11.55%	10.46%	10.25%	7.50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.31%	0.83%	1.56%	2.15%	3.75%	4.64%	5.99%	7.88%	10.13%	12.09%	14.06%	17.52%	19.08%
Los Angeles Rams	0.04%	0.18%	0.33%	0.64%	1.45%	2.02%	3.52%	5.57%	7.13%	9.89%	14.10%	20.52%	18.50%	16.11%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.03%	0.05%	0.18%	0.25%	0.72%	0.92%	1.66%	2.12%	3.83%	6.59%	8.92%	13.43%	23.18%	38.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	29.86%	16.88%	12.71%	8.81%	6.99%	4.86%	4.62%	3.14%	2.82%	2.14%	1.61%	1.26%	1.08%	0.91%	0.61%	0.51%	0.37%	0.32%	0.18%	0.11%	0.11%	0.06%	0.01%	0.03%	—	—	—	—
Buffalo Bills	9.83%	12.27%	8.95%	10.54%	7.37%	8.74%	5.98%	6.53%	4.65%	4.78%	3.66%	3.69%	2.50%	2.36%	1.57%	1.58%	1.11%	1.27%	0.68%	0.53%	0.49%	0.31%	0.27%	0.17%	0.07%	0.04%	0.04%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	9.63%	7.44%	8.88%	6.99%	9.31%	6.24%	7.80%	6.49%	6.37%	5.10%	4.86%	4.12%	3.29%	2.75%	2.15%	1.82%	1.74%	1.46%	0.95%	0.79%	0.50%	0.48%	0.34%	0.17%	0.15%	0.06%	0.09%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	9.15%	8.07%	9.54%	8.02%	7.76%	6.49%	6.60%	5.88%	5.66%	4.68%	4.77%	4.02%	3.46%	2.59%	2.56%	2.45%	1.72%	1.56%	1.56%	1.06%	0.78%	0.54%	0.50%	0.17%	0.23%	0.08%	0.07%	0.03%
Washington Redskins	8.55%	7.80%	8.87%	7.86%	7.45%	6.17%	7.04%	5.99%	5.75%	4.52%	4.68%	4.01%	4.06%	3.03%	2.77%	2.31%	2.03%	1.62%	1.55%	1.10%	0.84%	0.69%	0.47%	0.32%	0.18%	0.19%	0.12%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.02%	8.83%	7.76%	8.00%	7.05%	7.64%	6.44%	5.75%	5.25%	5.26%	4.40%	3.88%	3.67%	3.39%	2.76%	2.66%	1.86%	2.04%	1.40%	1.41%	0.78%	0.87%	0.56%	0.44%	0.39%	0.24%	0.20%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.83%	7.11%	6.19%	7.97%	6.16%	7.24%	6.69%	6.44%	5.78%	5.96%	4.96%	4.84%	4.12%	3.78%	3.36%	2.91%	2.49%	2.06%	1.70%	1.27%	1.21%	0.99%	0.69%	0.65%	0.29%	0.21%	0.05%	0.05%
Houston Oilers	5.21%	7.37%	6.63%	7.44%	6.66%	7.23%	6.06%	6.26%	5.51%	5.70%	4.88%	4.95%	3.83%	3.56%	3.28%	3.20%	2.40%	2.18%	1.71%	1.81%	1.07%	1.03%	0.63%	0.64%	0.36%	0.28%	0.08%	0.04%
Miami Dolphins	3.37%	5.37%	5.02%	6.36%	5.94%	7.30%	6.21%	7.13%	6.43%	7.45%	5.37%	6.06%	4.08%	4.93%	3.36%	3.16%	2.17%	2.52%	1.77%	1.46%	1.17%	1.09%	0.74%	0.57%	0.41%	0.25%	0.24%	0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.46%	5.28%	6.62%	5.59%	7.28%	5.46%	6.16%	5.49%	6.17%	4.92%	5.98%	4.85%	4.67%	4.26%	4.25%	3.66%	2.78%	2.51%	2.45%	1.84%	1.53%	1.20%	0.94%	0.60%	0.45%	0.32%	0.21%	0.07%
Minnesota Vikings	2.13%	2.70%	4.44%	3.46%	5.77%	5.08%	6.20%	5.29%	5.45%	5.55%	5.85%	4.84%	5.25%	4.86%	4.63%	3.77%	3.93%	3.07%	3.59%	3.06%	2.60%	2.24%	1.75%	1.52%	1.14%	0.92%	0.66%	0.25%
Denver Broncos	2.23%	3.47%	3.55%	4.30%	4.43%	5.62%	5.18%	5.41%	5.73%	5.62%	5.27%	5.09%	5.46%	4.71%	4.66%	4.64%	3.88%	3.89%	2.93%	3.20%	2.33%	2.52%	1.56%	1.42%	0.95%	1.00%	0.60%	0.35%
San Diego Chargers	0.64%	1.52%	2.02%	2.95%	2.58%	3.80%	3.48%	4.47%	3.96%	4.98%	4.65%	5.26%	5.41%	5.54%	5.20%	5.71%	4.88%	4.89%	4.41%	4.40%	3.78%	3.60%	3.26%	2.43%	2.39%	1.66%	1.29%	0.84%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.75%	1.65%	1.60%	2.37%	2.56%	3.28%	3.17%	3.87%	3.92%	4.63%	4.90%	5.10%	5.02%	5.42%	5.68%	5.68%	5.19%	5.63%	4.76%	4.39%	4.30%	4.09%	3.07%	3.18%	2.19%	1.80%	1.08%	0.72%
Chicago Bears	0.30%	0.71%	1.21%	1.47%	2.58%	2.30%	2.83%	3.54%	3.67%	4.25%	4.54%	4.67%	5.13%	5.09%	5.11%	5.26%	5.50%	4.70%	5.62%	4.51%	5.15%	4.12%	4.33%	3.74%	3.37%	2.70%	2.16%	1.44%
Detroit Lions	0.42%	0.69%	1.30%	1.56%	2.17%	2.10%	3.15%	3.23%	4.04%	3.67%	4.32%	4.80%	5.05%	4.69%	5.40%	5.01%	5.44%	4.84%	4.63%	4.85%	5.06%	4.53%	4.45%	4.39%	3.19%	3.19%	2.40%	1.43%
Atlanta Falcons	0.33%	0.76%	1.06%	1.17%	1.53%	1.76%	2.15%	2.62%	3.02%	3.52%	4.13%	4.20%	4.83%	5.59%	6.66%	6.33%	6.90%	6.54%	5.86%	5.45%	4.81%	4.45%	4.41%	4.01%	2.83%	2.17%	1.71%	1.20%
New York Giants	0.51%	0.60%	1.01%	1.28%	1.65%	1.89%	2.16%	2.48%	2.82%	2.82%	3.75%	3.65%	4.89%	4.41%	4.84%	5.02%	6.04%	5.31%	6.45%	5.97%	5.95%	5.18%	5.06%	4.28%	4.04%	3.20%	2.77%	1.97%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.31%	0.60%	0.93%	1.03%	1.23%	1.71%	2.19%	2.29%	2.61%	3.09%	3.71%	3.46%	4.27%	4.82%	4.78%	4.91%	5.37%	5.36%	5.35%	6.16%	5.27%	6.37%	4.96%	5.16%	4.26%	4.14%	3.08%	2.58%
Green Bay Packers	0.11%	0.25%	0.65%	0.82%	1.21%	1.52%	1.84%	2.14%	2.59%	2.58%	3.53%	3.82%	4.04%	4.67%	5.08%	4.79%	5.76%	4.98%	5.49%	5.64%	6.05%	5.27%	6.00%	4.90%	4.92%	4.85%	3.83%	2.67%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.10%	0.16%	0.27%	0.54%	0.66%	1.06%	1.05%	1.26%	2.10%	2.15%	2.46%	2.86%	3.23%	3.58%	4.23%	4.62%	5.25%	5.45%	5.92%	6.13%	6.85%	7.16%	6.40%	7.27%	5.51%	6.07%	4.09%	3.57%
New York Jets	0.16%	0.21%	0.40%	0.55%	0.50%	0.84%	1.15%	1.39%	1.82%	2.09%	2.07%	2.97%	3.29%	4.04%	3.55%	4.95%	5.02%	6.94%	5.28%	6.47%	5.58%	6.95%	5.88%	6.73%	5.77%	5.41%	5.20%	4.79%
Indianapolis Colts	0.05%	0.11%	0.13%	0.39%	0.35%	0.45%	0.61%	0.99%	1.02%	1.46%	1.57%	2.09%	2.49%	3.04%	3.33%	3.68%	3.91%	5.29%	5.22%	6.32%	6.25%	7.24%	6.48%	7.58%	7.32%	8.17%	7.03%	7.43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0.04%	0.09%	0.20%	0.42%	0.52%	0.49%	0.88%	1.15%	1.11%	1.56%	2.20%	2.26%	2.57%	3.15%	3.12%	4.21%	4.08%	5.32%	5.24%	6.38%	5.92%	7.95%	6.92%	9.46%	7.82%	9.70%	7.24%
Los Angeles Rams	0.04%	—	0.08%	0.08%	0.13%	0.30%	0.28%	0.48%	0.64%	0.78%	1.06%	1.24%	1.72%	2.00%	2.79%	3.02%	3.59%	3.69%	4.94%	5.14%	7.05%	7.22%	9.56%	8.88%	8.91%	8.98%	9.09%	8.31%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	0.09%	0.06%	0.09%	0.17%	0.21%	0.28%	0.32%	0.41%	0.57%	0.65%	0.87%	1.28%	1.53%	1.77%	2.30%	2.36%	2.83%	3.70%	4.15%	4.91%	5.90%	6.57%	7.97%	9.90%	12.67%	12.12%	16.31%
Phoenix Cardinals	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.07%	0.09%	0.12%	0.12%	0.41%	0.38%	0.54%	0.53%	0.76%	0.97%	1.10%	1.32%	1.89%	2.35%	3.57%	3.51%	4.71%	4.95%	6.88%	7.80%	11.30%	11.74%	16.68%	18.13%
New England Patriots	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.11%	0.02%	0.10%	0.07%	0.12%	0.25%	0.24%	0.27%	0.67%	0.86%	0.91%	1.37%	1.61%	2.21%	2.62%	3.01%	4.03%	4.49%	5.03%	6.28%	8.06%	10.02%	11.84%	15.41%	20.38%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	25.35%	20.13%	15.81%	11.54%	8.70%	6.78%	11.69%
Kansas City Chiefs	18.06%	16.97%	16.09%	10.00%	9.06%	8.15%	21.67%
Houston Oilers	15.65%	14.17%	13.01%	12.82%	10.59%	9.07%	24.69%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.24%	13.64%	13.39%	13.28%	11.31%	9.59%	24.55%
Miami Dolphins	10.65%	11.29%	11.29%	15.15%	13.95%	11.86%	25.81%
Denver Broncos	7.11%	8.87%	9.85%	10.03%	11.72%	10.34%	42.08%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.11%	4.13%	5.24%	7.94%	8.37%	9.94%	61.27%
San Diego Chargers	2.99%	5.30%	6.20%	7.80%	9.03%	9.99%	58.69%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.35%	2.51%	3.70%	4.22%	5.19%	6.98%	76.05%
New York Jets	0.57%	1.04%	1.74%	2.52%	3.89%	5.41%	84.83%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.48%	0.99%	1.95%	2.44%	3.92%	5.33%	84.89%
Indianapolis Colts	0.27%	0.56%	0.92%	1.48%	2.70%	3.99%	90.08%
Seattle Seahawks	0.14%	0.28%	0.58%	0.55%	1.00%	1.68%	95.77%
New England Patriots	0.03%	0.12%	0.23%	0.23%	0.57%	0.89%	97.93%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	42.05%	21.40%	5.01%	15.11%	7.82%	3.68%	4.93%
New Orleans Saints	14.92%	9.89%	2.99%	24.70%	18.73%	10.57%	18.20%
Dallas Cowboys	13.98%	17.79%	4.43%	15.64%	14.88%	11.17%	22.11%
Washington Redskins	13.20%	17.45%	4.92%	15.18%	14.51%	10.94%	23.80%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.13%	12.14%	3.54%	14.34%	13.98%	12.98%	34.89%
Minnesota Vikings	3.81%	9.17%	29.34%	2.08%	5.07%	8.09%	42.44%
Atlanta Falcons	1.04%	1.57%	0.72%	4.58%	6.82%	8.36%	76.91%
New York Giants	0.91%	2.29%	1.04%	4.01%	5.70%	7.43%	78.62%
Detroit Lions	0.90%	3.24%	16.01%	1.64%	3.33%	6.96%	67.92%
Chicago Bears	0.72%	2.96%	17.14%	1.07%	3.64%	7.41%	67.06%
Green Bay Packers	0.26%	1.40%	10.30%	0.71%	2.57%	6.23%	78.53%
Los Angeles Rams	0.04%	0.24%	0.13%	0.43%	1.32%	2.22%	95.62%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.03%	0.07%	0.08%	0.28%	0.57%	1.04%	97.93%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.39%	4.35%	0.23%	1.06%	2.92%	91.04%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	86.02%	86.02%	60.27%	40.12%	28.90%
Dallas Cowboys	59.68%	59.68%	34.55%	17.44%	11.64%
New Orleans Saints	58.02%	58.02%	28.21%	14.26%	8.82%
Houston Oilers	58.84%	58.84%	34.30%	19.66%	7.62%
Buffalo Bills	70.86%	70.86%	39.56%	21.64%	7.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	44.86%	44.86%	22.75%	9.62%	5.81%
Kansas City Chiefs	60.00%	60.00%	31.90%	16.68%	5.67%
Washington Redskins	52.53%	52.53%	24.65%	9.14%	5.42%
Pittsburgh Steelers	53.40%	53.40%	26.99%	12.76%	4.16%
Minnesota Vikings	44.58%	41.12%	16.96%	6.78%	4.16%
Miami Dolphins	52.25%	50.21%	24.64%	11.87%	3.91%
San Diego Chargers	33.02%	27.45%	14.61%	7.61%	2.95%
Denver Broncos	41.94%	33.58%	13.11%	5.10%	1.59%
Los Angeles Raiders	20.09%	12.17%	4.74%	1.76%	0.48%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.49%	18.70%	6.38%	2.02%	0.39%
Green Bay Packers	19.81%	9.93%	2.51%	0.69%	0.33%
Detroit Lions	27.94%	14.88%	3.17%	0.54%	0.22%
Chicago Bears	29.26%	12.83%	2.42%	0.41%	0.17%
New York Giants	18.18%	8.30%	2.04%	0.45%	0.15%
Atlanta Falcons	20.48%	7.99%	1.83%	0.38%	0.13%
New York Jets	13.56%	5.00%	1.43%	0.35%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	13.64%	4.87%	1.01%	0.18%	0.05%
Indianapolis Colts	9.09%	3.28%	1.04%	0.31%	0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	4.10%	1.27%	0.26%	0.07%	0.02%
Phoenix Cardinals	1.97%	0.51%	0.11%	0.04%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	3.81%	1.16%	0.21%	0.06%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.56%	2.06%	0.27%	0.06%	0.01%
New England Patriots	1.92%	0.48%	0.08%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		1.29%	2.81%	3.38%	2.39%	0.84%	2.45%	1.63%	3.48%	0.21%	1.38%	2.95%	2.15%	0.42%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.41%		0.26%	0.53%	0.34%	0.12%	0.40%	0.15%	0.36%	0.04%	0.17%	0.33%	0.22%	0.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.28%	0.38%		1.71%	1.04%	0.43%	1.09%	0.90%	1.72%	0.13%	0.56%	1.28%	0.74%	0.20%
Denver Broncos	1.74%	1.10%	2.19%		1.77%	0.69%	1.81%	0.85%	2.52%	0.12%	1.03%	2.33%	1.20%	0.25%
Houston Oilers	2.95%	1.29%	2.78%	4.01%		1.10%	2.80%	1.76%	4.04%	0.20%	1.42%	4.03%	2.20%	0.44%
Indianapolis Colts	0.23%	0.13%	0.24%	0.33%	0.22%		0.31%	0.11%	0.32%	0.02%	0.08%	0.32%	0.09%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.55%	1.41%	2.61%	3.39%	2.45%	0.87%		1.51%	3.54%	0.15%	1.30%	2.75%	2.11%	0.33%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.81%	0.50%	0.87%	0.77%	0.73%	0.34%	0.88%		1.12%	0.07%	0.66%	1.02%	0.42%	0.12%
Miami Dolphins	2.93%	1.71%	3.09%	4.04%	2.92%	0.71%	3.17%	1.97%		0.21%	0.96%	3.80%	2.26%	0.50%
New England Patriots	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%		0.01%	0.04%	0.04%
New York Jets	0.32%	0.13%	0.32%	0.40%	0.33%	0.10%	0.32%	0.33%	0.35%	0.01%		0.49%	0.22%	0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.40%	1.22%	2.82%	3.43%	2.32%	0.95%	2.58%	1.70%	3.79%	0.22%	1.43%		2.18%	0.48%
San Diego Chargers	1.75%	1.02%	1.92%	2.25%	1.83%	0.42%	2.38%	0.82%	2.68%	0.21%	1.12%	2.62%		0.14%
Seattle Seahawks	0.05%	0.03%	0.09%	0.06%	0.11%	0.05%	0.11%	0.03%	0.04%		0.05%	0.09%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.84%	0.45%	0.50%	0.45%	0.03%	0.59%	0.42%	0.42%	0.63%	0.04%	0.17%	0.18%	0.66%
Chicago Bears	0.94%		0.47%	1.25%	0.84%	0.20%	1.18%	0.66%	0.78%	0.94%	0.16%	0.26%	0.55%	0.92%
Dallas Cowboys	2.29%	2.71%		2.25%	1.29%	0.38%	2.59%	6.45%	1.36%	2.59%	0.13%	2.54%	0.74%	2.59%
Detroit Lions	1.10%	1.47%	0.57%		0.96%	0.25%	1.63%	0.79%	0.96%	0.85%	0.15%	0.29%	0.60%	1.12%
Green Bay Packers	0.69%	1.29%	0.57%	0.93%		0.25%	1.07%	0.59%	0.72%	0.84%	0.09%	0.17%	0.37%	0.69%
Los Angeles Rams	0.04%	0.13%	0.08%	0.12%	0.10%		0.12%	0.06%	0.07%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.10%	0.09%
Minnesota Vikings	2.36%	4.42%	2.37%	3.54%	2.45%	0.66%		2.38%	1.96%	2.84%	0.26%	0.68%	1.34%	2.88%
New Orleans Saints	1.70%	2.34%	5.60%	2.08%	1.54%	0.26%	2.32%		2.97%	5.35%	0.30%	0.84%	0.85%	7.06%
New York Giants	0.41%	0.66%	0.29%	0.72%	0.36%	0.05%	0.61%	0.83%		0.21%	0.02%	0.25%	0.17%	0.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.91%	2.43%	2.08%	2.28%	1.39%	0.35%	2.44%	5.24%	0.88%		0.10%	2.02%	0.82%	2.65%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.03%	0.09%		0.03%	0.05%		0.05%	0.06%		0.03%		0.03%	0.01%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	1.51%	1.13%	3.74%	1.56%	0.83%	0.28%	1.51%	1.42%	1.78%	3.84%	0.16%		0.45%	4.36%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.15%	0.30%	0.12%	0.17%	0.10%	0.06%	0.18%	0.07%	0.19%	0.13%	0.02%	0.07%		0.10%
Washington Redskins	1.97%	2.30%	1.87%	1.77%	1.18%	0.34%	2.15%	4.81%	0.99%	1.94%	0.12%	1.72%	0.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.87%	2.73%	4.27%	5.62%	0.55%	6.58%	1.62%	7.26%	0.07%	0.77%	5.83%	3.16%	0.23%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.28%		0.04%	0.09%	0.12%	0.01%	0.17%	0.03%	0.13%			0.08%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.18%	0.06%		0.77%	0.83%	0.06%	1.02%	0.16%	0.80%	0.01%	0.13%	0.98%	0.35%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	2.42%	0.32%	0.85%		1.75%	0.10%	2.47%	0.36%	1.82%	0.03%	0.29%	1.97%	0.70%	0.03%
Houston Oilers	6.18%	0.59%	1.95%	3.73%		0.33%	5.75%	1.62%	4.65%	0.10%	0.65%	6.09%	2.52%	0.14%
Indianapolis Colts	0.11%	0.06%	0.05%	0.14%	0.12%		0.21%	0.08%	0.05%		0.01%	0.15%	0.05%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.15%	0.69%	2.35%	3.86%	4.80%	0.49%		1.17%	4.57%	0.05%	0.65%	4.60%	2.27%	0.25%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.83%	0.10%	0.29%	0.31%	0.60%	0.11%	0.76%		0.63%	0.01%	0.10%	0.84%	0.15%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	5.97%	0.45%	1.38%	2.76%	3.63%	0.22%	3.94%	0.86%		0.04%	0.27%	3.39%	1.62%	0.11%
New England Patriots	0.01%			0.02%			0.04%						0.01%
New York Jets	0.31%		0.09%	0.12%	0.20%	0.01%	0.30%	0.04%	0.13%			0.15%	0.07%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.91%	0.52%	1.70%	3.18%	4.77%	0.23%	4.49%	1.17%	3.52%	0.07%	0.46%		1.87%	0.10%
San Diego Chargers	2.94%	0.20%	0.88%	1.19%	2.06%	0.12%	2.35%	0.31%	1.99%	0.02%	0.24%	2.28%		0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%		0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%			0.05%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.14%	0.19%	0.12%	0.07%		0.14%	0.29%	0.05%	0.13%	0.01%	0.37%	0.01%	0.31%
Chicago Bears	0.07%		0.36%	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	0.15%	0.21%	0.05%	0.40%		0.54%	0.04%	0.54%
Dallas Cowboys	0.73%	1.90%		2.40%	1.71%	0.12%	5.32%	4.80%	0.92%	4.63%	0.06%	5.17%	0.34%	6.45%
Detroit Lions	0.16%	0.11%	0.44%		0.05%		0.15%	0.37%	0.16%	0.46%		0.51%	0.02%	0.74%
Green Bay Packers	0.04%	0.05%	0.48%	0.03%			0.07%	0.40%	0.10%	0.31%	0.01%	0.51%		0.51%
Los Angeles Rams		0.01%		0.02%			0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%		0.06%		0.06%
Minnesota Vikings	0.59%	0.27%	2.82%	0.50%	0.28%	0.10%		2.32%	0.72%	2.56%	0.05%	3.12%	0.04%	3.59%
New Orleans Saints	0.85%	1.40%	4.02%	1.60%	0.90%	0.10%	3.21%		0.89%	2.87%	0.06%	8.26%	0.25%	3.80%
New York Giants	0.07%	0.16%	0.20%	0.11%	0.09%	0.01%	0.31%	0.23%		0.18%		0.32%	0.03%	0.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.63%	1.36%	3.69%	1.63%	0.72%	0.12%	3.13%	3.04%	0.59%		0.03%	3.61%	0.24%	3.96%
Phoenix Cardinals			0.01%	0.01%			0.02%	0.02%				0.02%		0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	2.35%	2.97%	8.39%	3.27%	2.31%	0.41%	8.16%	14.80%	1.95%	7.44%	0.14%		0.53%	7.55%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%		0.08%					0.04%	0.01%	0.02%		0.10%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.66%	2.04%	4.45%	2.00%	1.27%	0.13%	3.46%	3.26%	0.80%	3.09%	0.04%	3.16%	0.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.12%	1.19%	2.33%	4.44%	0.17%	4.24%	0.78%	2.04%		0.14%	4.18%	1.96%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%		0.01%		0.02%		0.03%		0.04%			0.01%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.57%	0.01%		0.13%	0.22%	0.01%	0.30%	0.08%	0.34%		0.01%	0.12%	0.23%
Denver Broncos	1.10%	0.07%	0.28%		1.01%	0.04%	0.51%	0.08%	0.90%		0.06%	0.80%	0.25%
Houston Oilers	4.72%	0.13%	0.65%	1.76%		0.26%	3.96%	0.65%	3.19%	0.05%	0.22%	2.28%	1.75%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.03%			0.05%	0.10%		0.03%		0.02%			0.07%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.34%	0.15%	0.77%	0.94%	3.23%	0.13%		0.48%	2.55%	0.01%	0.19%	3.06%	0.81%	0.02%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.41%	0.03%	0.09%	0.06%	0.37%	0.03%	0.15%		0.22%		0.05%	0.27%	0.08%
Miami Dolphins	1.71%	0.18%	0.59%	1.15%	2.36%	0.04%	2.38%	0.36%			0.05%	2.12%	0.93%
New York Jets	0.04%		0.03%	0.05%	0.05%		0.05%	0.01%	0.06%			0.02%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.26%	0.05%	0.34%	1.20%	1.51%	0.05%	2.59%	0.38%	2.22%	0.02%	0.19%		0.91%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers	1.67%	0.09%	0.41%	0.34%	1.33%		0.97%	0.16%	1.17%		0.17%	1.30%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%						0.01%		0.02%				0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.07%	0.01%		0.01%	0.04%	0.06%		0.08%		0.03%		0.08%
Chicago Bears			0.05%	0.01%			0.02%	0.09%	0.01%	0.06%		0.11%		0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	0.42%	0.41%		0.40%	0.28%	0.06%	1.83%	3.47%	0.11%	1.66%		7.04%	0.05%	1.71%
Detroit Lions	0.04%		0.07%		0.01%		0.01%	0.11%		0.13%	0.01%	0.10%		0.06%
Green Bay Packers			0.09%				0.02%	0.16%		0.10%		0.20%		0.12%
Los Angeles Rams		0.01%					0.02%			0.02%		0.01%		0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.07%	0.10%	1.27%	0.09%	0.04%			1.43%	0.12%	0.69%		2.07%	0.03%	0.87%
New Orleans Saints	0.13%	0.27%	3.06%	0.37%	0.30%	0.02%	1.83%		0.24%	2.20%		3.23%	0.04%	2.57%
New York Giants		0.01%	0.03%		0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.12%		0.02%		0.17%		0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.21%	0.14%	1.32%	0.31%	0.14%	0.03%	0.93%	1.65%	0.16%		0.02%	3.47%		1.24%
Phoenix Cardinals			0.01%									0.02%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.42%	0.94%	9.95%	1.26%	0.83%	0.05%	4.81%	5.01%	0.85%	7.18%	0.04%		0.04%	8.74%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.02%				0.01%			0.02%				0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.16%	0.13%	1.17%	0.18%	0.19%	0.01%	0.63%	1.85%	0.10%	0.97%		3.70%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons					0.01%		0.01%			0.02%		0.02%			0.02%							0.04%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%		0.07%			1.25%		0.11%	0.11%					0.03%		0.57%	1.22%	0.07%		0.67%				2.35%		0.01%	0.74%
Chicago Bears		0.04%					0.03%			0.02%		0.04%										0.03%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals																0.01%	0.02%							0.01%			0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)						0.08%		0.01%								0.02%	0.07%	0.01%		0.04%				0.12%			0.04%
Dallas Cowboys		2.64%		0.01%	0.22%		0.55%			2.28%	0.03%	1.94%	0.27%		1.33%				0.06%			1.55%	0.72%		0.04%
Denver Broncos	0.01%					0.25%		0.01%	0.01%							0.15%	0.27%			0.16%	0.01%			0.54%			0.18%
Detroit Lions		0.06%					0.01%			0.03%		0.04%			0.03%							0.05%
Green Bay Packers		0.11%					0.01%			0.02%		0.07%	0.01%		0.07%							0.01%	0.03%
Houston Oilers	0.05%		0.06%			1.25%		0.05%	0.07%							0.60%	1.27%	0.08%		0.93%	0.01%			2.33%		0.01%	0.91%
Indianapolis Colts						0.01%										0.01%				0.01%				0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%		0.06%			1.05%		0.04%	0.06%							0.42%	0.79%	0.04%		0.61%				2.01%		0.01%	0.57%
Los Angeles Raiders						0.07%										0.06%	0.06%			0.08%	0.01%			0.16%			0.04%
Los Angeles Rams		0.01%					0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%		0.02%			0.73%		0.06%	0.05%					0.01%		0.26%	0.50%	0.07%		0.49%				1.23%			0.44%
Minnesota Vikings		1.06%		0.01%	0.12%		0.19%			0.69%	0.02%	0.66%	0.12%		0.49%				0.02%			0.57%	0.21%
New Orleans Saints		2.06%		0.02%	0.22%		0.44%			1.67%	0.04%	1.40%	0.12%		1.12%				0.06%			1.11%	0.56%
New York Giants		0.04%								0.04%			0.01%		0.02%				0.01%			0.02%	0.01%
New York Jets														0.01%						0.01%				0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles		1.20%		0.01%	0.17%		0.31%			1.06%	0.03%	1.01%	0.15%		0.64%							0.80%	0.43%
Phoenix Cardinals		0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%		0.01%			0.60%		0.02%	0.03%							0.26%	0.74%	0.01%		0.48%				1.46%		0.02%	0.48%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%		0.02%			0.51%		0.02%	0.03%							0.26%	0.50%	0.02%		0.32%				0.95%			0.31%
San Francisco 49ers		6.02%		0.05%	0.75%		1.60%			5.28%	0.13%	4.94%	0.53%		3.50%				0.13%			3.69%	2.27%		0.01%
Seattle Seahawks																				0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers										0.01%
Washington Redskins		1.12%		0.03%	0.14%		0.35%			0.92%	0.02%	0.89%	0.07%		0.74%							0.73%	0.41%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	71.24%	48.42%	34.28%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	66.40%	27.54%	17.77%	Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	51.31%	27.64%	7.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	52.10%	24.32%	7.21%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Diego Chargers	65.93%	32.08%	18.30%	6.92%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New Orleans Saints	63.76%	21.06%	8.99%	5.77%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	44.08%	22.92%	11.55%	4.44%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Buffalo Bills	55.92%	25.51%	11.87%	4.41%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	62.53%	20.11%	7.08%	4.03%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles	36.24%	11.68%	5.14%	3.26%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	34.07%	16.08%	6.32%	2.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Washington Redskins	37.47%	9.51%	2.83%	1.73%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		55.92%
Houston Oilers	44.08%
Kansas City Chiefs				34.07%
San Diego Chargers			65.93%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings				62.53%
New Orleans Saints			63.76%
Philadelphia Eagles		36.24%
Washington Redskins	37.47%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills				8.29%	17.22%
Houston Oilers				7.53%	15.39%
Kansas City Chiefs					16.08%
Miami Dolphins	10.72%	7.53%				33.85%
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.69%	13.63%	17.99%
San Diego Chargers				32.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		42.42%	15.22%	8.76%
Minnesota Vikings	20.11%
New Orleans Saints	8.59%				12.47%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.90%				6.78%
San Francisco 49ers			27.48%	15.80%		27.96%
Washington Redskins					9.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills			2.57%	4.06%	2.11%	3.13%
Houston Oilers			2.35%	3.97%	2.26%	2.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.46%	1.05%		3.81%
Miami Dolphins	4.59%	3.85%	4.84%		11.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.15%	1.87%		15.94%		7.68%
San Diego Chargers	5.44%	4.60%			8.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			5.08%	2.64%	15.51%	4.31%
Minnesota Vikings			2.08%	1.10%	3.90%
New Orleans Saints	3.27%	2.04%			2.23%	1.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.96%	1.08%			1.18%	0.92%
San Francisco 49ers	31.83%	9.91%	4.26%	2.42%
Washington Redskins	1.80%		0.65%	0.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Buffalo Bills		1.44%				0.37%	0.37%	0.28%			1.85%	0.10%
Dallas Cowboys	2.15%		1.85%	1.07%	4.64%				5.11%	2.95%
Houston Oilers		1.35%				0.35%	0.52%	0.21%			1.86%	0.15%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.68%				0.23%	0.13%	0.16%			1.00%	0.05%
Miami Dolphins		1.96%				0.72%	0.80%	0.36%			3.02%	0.35%
Minnesota Vikings	0.48%		0.39%	0.24%	1.11%				1.12%	0.69%
New Orleans Saints	0.77%		0.66%	0.33%	1.46%				1.51%	1.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.31%		0.33%	0.17%	0.87%				0.98%	0.60%
Pittsburgh Steelers		2.43%				0.78%	0.79%	0.48%			3.25%	0.20%
San Diego Chargers		1.91%				0.60%	0.61%	0.39%			3.16%	0.25%
San Francisco 49ers	3.52%		3.77%	2.11%	8.58%				10.50%	5.80%
Washington Redskins	0.23%		0.11%	0.15%	0.45%				0.49%	0.30%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 34.28% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

39.25%

Win Prob

74.62%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

65.74%

Win Prob

67.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

30.63%

Win Prob

76.36%

Dallas Cowboys 17.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

63.89%

Win Prob

67.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.32%

Win Prob

32.76%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

28.76%

Win Prob

67.77%

Pittsburgh Steelers 7.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

38.37%

Win Prob

53.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

57.67%

Win Prob

59.08%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.98%

Win Prob

23.64%

Miami Dolphins 7.21% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

64.97%

Win Prob

51.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

45.39%

Win Prob

40.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.89%

Win Prob

26.03%

San Diego Chargers 6.92% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

45.14%

Win Prob

51.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

45.66%

Win Prob

35.27%

New Orleans Saints 5.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.76%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.21%

Win Prob

31.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

36.37%

Win Prob

39.16%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

26.17%

Win Prob

65.65%

Houston Oilers 4.44% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.08%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

67.15%

Win Prob

53.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

34.37%

Win Prob

50.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.89%

Win Prob

33.04%

Buffalo Bills 4.41% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.92%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

67.50%

Win Prob

46.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

34.20%

Win Prob

46.94%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.95%

Win Prob

34.45%

Minnesota Vikings 4.03% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.53%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

55.08%

Win Prob

28.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

27.79%

Win Prob

58.95%

Philadelphia Eagles 3.26% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.24%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.05%

Win Prob

30.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

38.13%

Win Prob

42.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

30.06%

Win Prob

67.12%

Kansas City Chiefs 2.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.20%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

60.28%

Win Prob

44.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

44.44%

Win Prob

32.15%

Washington Redskins 1.73% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.47%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

63.60%

Win Prob

29.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

28.32%

Win Prob

71.01%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1992-09-06	New York Jets	W 20-17	1533.70	1488.57	66.57%	33.18%	+8.52	1-0
1992-09-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-24	1542.22	1624.46	28.63%	71.13%	-11.23	1-1
1992-09-20	New Orleans Saints	L 7-10	1530.99	1570.20	55.10%	44.66%	-14.14	1-2
1992-09-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 31-41	1516.85	1472.81	45.35%	54.41%	-21.25	1-3
1992-10-04	Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1495.60	1452.11	66.37%	33.39%	+18.53	2-3
1992-10-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1514.13	1592.69	29.06%	70.70%	-8.63	2-4
1992-10-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-56	1505.50	1681.28	18.97%	80.79%	-17.57	2-5
1992-11-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-28	1487.93	1442.80	66.58%	33.18%	+6.96	3-5
1992-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-41	1494.89	1659.70	37.33%	62.43%	-34.11	3-6
1992-11-15	Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-17	1460.78	1401.86	68.31%	31.45%	+8.07	4-6
1992-11-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-41	1468.85	1612.37	21.99%	77.77%	-16.95	4-7
1992-11-29	New England Patriots	W 34-0	1451.90	1345.01	73.94%	25.82%	+22.33	5-7
1992-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-22	1474.23	1651.74	18.82%	80.94%	-7.90	5-8
1992-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1466.33	1322.28	59.60%	40.16%	+31.50	6-8
1992-12-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-41	1497.83	1673.98	35.81%	63.95%	-26.01	6-9
1992-12-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-38	1471.82	1383.65	51.68%	48.07%	-25.39	6-10
1992-09-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 40-7	1584.88	1405.12	81.14%	18.62%	+15.87	1-0
1992-09-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-31	1600.75	1644.76	33.33%	66.43%	+17.04	2-0
1992-09-20	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-0	1617.79	1364.88	86.70%	13.06%	+11.94	3-0
1992-09-27	@ New England Patriots	W 41-7	1629.73	1366.74	74.47%	25.29%	+21.87	4-0
1992-10-04	Miami Dolphins	L 10-37	1651.60	1534.97	75.00%	24.76%	-57.71	4-1
1992-10-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-20	1593.89	1449.19	59.69%	40.07%	-36.45	4-2
1992-10-26	@ New York Jets	W 24-20	1557.44	1418.99	58.82%	40.94%	+12.14	5-2
1992-11-01	New England Patriots	W 16-7	1569.58	1306.66	87.34%	12.42%	+5.52	6-2
1992-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-20	1575.10	1578.64	60.10%	39.66%	+16.63	7-2
1992-11-16	@ Miami Dolphins	W 26-20	1591.73	1565.11	42.88%	56.88%	+20.64	8-2
1992-11-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-14	1612.37	1468.85	77.77%	21.99%	+16.95	9-2
1992-11-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-16	1629.32	1322.38	78.95%	20.81%	-20.25	9-3
1992-12-06	New York Jets	L 17-24	1609.07	1377.25	85.26%	14.50%	-33.41	9-4
1992-12-12	Denver Broncos	W 27-17	1575.66	1513.45	68.72%	31.04%	+14.55	10-4
1992-12-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-16	1590.21	1679.28	27.83%	71.93%	+21.31	11-4
1992-12-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-27	1611.52	1582.29	43.24%	56.51%	-31.40	11-5
1992-09-06	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1522.82	1554.93	56.11%	43.65%	+11.20	1-0
1992-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-28	1534.02	1543.90	37.82%	61.93%	-26.30	1-1
1992-09-21	New York Giants	L 14-27	1507.72	1471.89	65.38%	34.38%	-34.91	1-2
1992-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-31	1472.81	1516.85	54.41%	45.35%	+21.25	2-2
1992-10-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-21	1494.06	1534.64	33.77%	65.99%	-5.00	2-3
1992-10-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-14	1489.06	1430.26	68.30%	31.46%	+19.23	3-3
1992-10-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-10	1508.29	1415.76	52.31%	47.45%	+31.44	4-3
1992-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-38	1539.73	1551.53	58.96%	40.80%	-46.20	4-4
1992-11-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-31	1493.53	1410.13	71.27%	28.49%	-18.28	4-5
1992-11-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1475.25	1344.48	57.75%	42.01%	-14.82	4-6
1992-11-22	Green Bay Packers	L 3-17	1460.43	1427.54	65.00%	34.76%	-36.02	4-7
1992-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-27	1424.41	1465.30	33.73%	66.03%	-18.03	4-8
1992-12-07	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-24	1406.38	1573.02	19.79%	79.97%	-12.10	4-9
1992-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-6	1394.28	1599.67	32.04%	67.72%	+49.13	5-9
1992-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-16	1443.41	1449.72	38.31%	61.45%	-20.48	5-10
1992-12-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-27	1422.93	1699.99	11.56%	88.20%	-6.18	5-11
1992-09-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 21-3	1427.95	1493.13	30.68%	69.08%	+43.40	1-0
1992-09-13	Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-21	1471.35	1498.59	56.80%	42.96%	+11.03	2-0
1992-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-24	1482.38	1412.14	49.11%	50.65%	-7.27	2-1
1992-09-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-42	1475.11	1482.44	59.58%	40.18%	-52.21	2-2
1992-10-11	Houston Oilers	L 24-38	1422.90	1579.62	38.42%	61.34%	-21.31	2-3
1992-10-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-20	1401.59	1504.50	26.26%	73.50%	-17.42	2-4
1992-10-25	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-26	1384.17	1583.88	16.94%	82.82%	-10.05	2-5
1992-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-10	1374.12	1480.99	45.39%	54.36%	+36.01	3-5
1992-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1410.13	1493.53	28.49%	71.27%	+18.28	4-5
1992-11-15	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1428.41	1425.98	39.50%	60.25%	-10.14	4-6
1992-11-22	Detroit Lions	L 13-19	1418.27	1447.23	56.55%	43.21%	-20.52	4-7
1992-11-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-21	1397.75	1576.96	35.41%	64.35%	-18.19	4-8
1992-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-37	1379.56	1483.33	26.16%	73.59%	-15.52	4-9
1992-12-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-27	1364.04	1544.26	18.58%	81.18%	-11.37	4-10
1992-12-20	New England Patriots	W 20-10	1352.67	1297.06	67.90%	31.86%	+14.94	5-10
1992-12-27	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-21	1367.61	1393.67	56.96%	42.80%	-16.87	5-11
1992-09-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-14	1465.45	1356.38	54.68%	45.08%	-26.86	0-1
1992-09-14	Miami Dolphins	L 23-27	1438.59	1492.77	52.96%	46.80%	-15.69	0-2
1992-09-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 28-16	1422.90	1487.56	30.74%	69.02%	+35.40	1-2
1992-09-27	Denver Broncos	L 0-12	1458.30	1540.57	48.92%	50.84%	-25.11	1-3
1992-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-9	1433.19	1526.46	47.34%	52.42%	+21.97	2-3
1992-10-18	Green Bay Packers	W 17-6	1455.16	1433.58	63.50%	36.25%	+17.82	3-3
1992-10-25	@ New England Patriots	W 19-17	1472.98	1314.67	61.55%	38.21%	+8.01	4-3
1992-11-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-30	1480.99	1374.12	54.36%	45.39%	-36.01	4-4
1992-11-08	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-14	1444.98	1587.68	22.07%	77.69%	+36.38	5-4
1992-11-15	San Diego Chargers	L 13-14	1481.36	1477.08	61.17%	38.59%	-9.06	5-5
1992-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-17	1472.30	1599.87	23.60%	76.15%	-7.00	5-6
1992-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 27-14	1465.30	1424.41	66.03%	33.73%	+18.03	6-6
1992-12-06	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-21	1483.33	1379.56	73.59%	26.16%	+15.52	7-6
1992-12-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-24	1498.85	1426.58	49.40%	50.36%	-23.14	7-7
1992-12-20	Houston Oilers	L 14-17	1475.71	1570.18	47.17%	52.59%	-12.11	7-8
1992-12-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-23	1463.60	1536.59	29.73%	70.03%	-13.94	7-9
1992-09-07	Washington Redskins	W 23-10	1532.93	1654.62	43.29%	56.47%	+30.16	1-0
1992-09-13	@ New York Giants	W 34-28	1563.09	1490.13	49.50%	50.26%	+18.24	2-0
1992-09-20	Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-20	1581.33	1352.34	85.06%	14.70%	+7.24	3-0
1992-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-31	1588.57	1608.16	36.52%	63.24%	-26.53	3-1
1992-10-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-0	1562.04	1416.56	77.96%	21.80%	+16.81	4-1
1992-10-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1578.85	1608.03	56.52%	43.24%	+16.95	5-1
1992-10-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 28-13	1595.80	1516.90	50.35%	49.41%	+28.35	6-1
1992-11-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1624.15	1610.23	62.48%	37.28%	+17.48	7-1
1992-11-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-3	1641.63	1487.32	61.01%	38.75%	+33.49	8-1
1992-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-27	1675.12	1411.07	87.41%	12.34%	-25.89	8-2
1992-11-22	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 16-10	1649.23	1393.78	73.64%	26.11%	+9.49	9-2
1992-11-26	New York Giants	W 30-3	1658.72	1501.92	79.05%	20.71%	+15.96	10-2
1992-12-06	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-27	1674.68	1525.13	60.36%	39.40%	+11.68	11-2
1992-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1686.36	1622.04	48.25%	51.50%	-12.38	11-3
1992-12-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 41-17	1673.98	1497.83	63.95%	35.81%	+26.01	12-3
1992-12-27	Chicago Bears	W 27-14	1699.99	1422.93	88.20%	11.56%	+6.18	13-3
1992-09-06	Los Angeles Raiders	W 17-13	1551.93	1508.49	66.36%	33.40%	+9.91	1-0
1992-09-13	San Diego Chargers	W 21-13	1561.84	1435.89	75.99%	23.77%	+9.97	2-0
1992-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-30	1571.81	1576.93	38.47%	61.29%	-31.24	2-1
1992-09-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 12-0	1540.57	1458.30	50.84%	48.92%	+25.11	3-1
1992-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-19	1565.68	1596.68	56.26%	43.49%	+6.45	4-1
1992-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-34	1572.13	1623.25	32.42%	67.34%	-26.77	4-2
1992-10-18	Houston Oilers	W 27-21	1545.36	1600.93	52.76%	47.00%	+17.06	5-2
1992-10-25	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-24	1562.42	1445.50	55.79%	43.96%	-14.31	5-3
1992-11-08	New York Jets	W 27-16	1548.11	1438.54	74.23%	25.52%	+12.55	6-3
1992-11-15	New York Giants	W 27-13	1560.66	1550.42	61.98%	37.78%	+20.96	7-3
1992-11-22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 0-24	1581.62	1485.09	52.88%	46.87%	-38.38	7-4
1992-11-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-16	1543.24	1314.33	70.59%	29.17%	-18.11	7-5
1992-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 27-31	1525.13	1674.68	39.40%	60.36%	-11.68	7-6
1992-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-27	1513.45	1575.66	31.04%	68.72%	-14.56	7-7
1992-12-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 10-6	1498.89	1322.48	80.85%	18.91%	+5.61	8-7
1992-12-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-42	1504.50	1545.04	33.77%	65.99%	-23.48	8-8
1992-09-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1554.93	1522.82	43.65%	56.11%	-11.20	0-1
1992-09-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-17	1543.73	1486.37	68.12%	31.64%	+17.55	1-1
1992-09-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-13	1561.28	1635.70	29.56%	70.20%	-7.59	1-2
1992-09-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-27	1553.69	1443.14	74.34%	25.42%	-22.02	1-3
1992-10-04	New Orleans Saints	L 7-13	1531.67	1565.73	55.83%	43.93%	-20.25	1-4
1992-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-31	1511.42	1539.65	35.37%	64.39%	-21.63	1-5
1992-10-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-7	1489.79	1411.02	50.33%	49.43%	+40.77	2-5
1992-11-01	Green Bay Packers	L 13-27	1530.56	1384.32	78.04%	21.72%	-43.24	2-6
1992-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-37	1487.32	1641.63	38.75%	61.01%	-33.50	2-7
1992-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-17	1453.82	1562.01	25.68%	74.08%	-6.59	2-8
1992-11-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-13	1447.23	1418.27	43.21%	56.55%	+20.52	3-8
1992-11-26	Houston Oilers	L 21-24	1467.75	1560.87	47.36%	52.40%	-12.16	3-9
1992-12-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-38	1455.59	1471.73	36.98%	62.78%	-29.01	3-10
1992-12-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-14	1426.58	1498.85	50.36%	49.40%	+23.14	4-10
1992-12-20	Chicago Bears	W 16-3	1449.72	1443.41	61.45%	38.31%	+20.48	5-10
1992-12-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-24	1470.20	1749.60	11.42%	88.34%	-7.19	5-11
1992-09-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1460.36	1471.21	59.09%	40.67%	-15.16	0-1
1992-09-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-31	1445.20	1423.71	42.16%	57.60%	-33.06	0-2
1992-09-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-23	1412.14	1482.38	50.65%	49.11%	+7.27	1-2
1992-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-3	1419.41	1559.16	40.76%	59.00%	+32.70	2-2
1992-10-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-24	1452.11	1495.60	33.39%	66.37%	-18.53	2-3
1992-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-17	1433.58	1455.16	36.25%	63.50%	-17.82	2-4
1992-10-25	Chicago Bears	L 10-30	1415.76	1508.29	47.45%	52.31%	-31.44	2-5
1992-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-13	1384.32	1530.56	21.72%	78.04%	+43.24	3-5
1992-11-08	@ New York Giants	L 7-27	1427.56	1533.20	25.96%	73.80%	-17.22	3-6
1992-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1410.34	1610.51	32.70%	67.06%	+17.20	4-6
1992-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-3	1427.54	1460.43	34.76%	65.00%	+36.02	5-6
1992-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-14	1463.56	1345.69	75.13%	24.63%	+8.17	6-6
1992-12-06	Detroit Lions	W 38-10	1471.73	1455.59	62.78%	36.98%	+29.01	7-6
1992-12-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 16-14	1500.74	1585.13	28.37%	71.38%	+14.95	8-6
1992-12-20	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-13	1515.69	1397.80	75.13%	24.62%	+14.15	9-6
1992-12-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-27	1529.84	1608.95	29.00%	70.76%	-19.24	9-7
1992-09-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-29	1557.60	1486.68	69.78%	29.98%	-23.10	0-1
1992-09-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 20-10	1534.50	1383.25	60.59%	39.17%	+18.36	1-1
1992-09-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-20	1552.86	1592.59	55.02%	44.73%	+11.48	2-1
1992-09-27	San Diego Chargers	W 27-0	1564.34	1398.05	79.94%	19.82%	+15.28	3-1
1992-10-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-24	1579.62	1422.90	61.34%	38.42%	+21.31	4-1
1992-10-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1600.93	1545.36	47.00%	52.76%	-17.05	4-2
1992-10-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-10	1583.88	1384.17	82.82%	16.94%	+10.05	5-2
1992-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-21	1593.93	1572.39	42.16%	57.60%	-6.25	5-3
1992-11-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-24	1587.68	1444.98	77.69%	22.07%	-36.38	5-4
1992-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-13	1551.30	1620.48	30.19%	69.57%	+20.60	6-4
1992-11-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-19	1571.90	1544.47	42.99%	56.77%	-11.03	6-5
1992-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1560.87	1467.75	52.40%	47.36%	+12.15	7-5
1992-12-07	Chicago Bears	W 24-7	1573.02	1406.38	79.97%	19.79%	+12.11	8-5
1992-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1585.13	1500.74	71.38%	28.37%	-14.95	8-6
1992-12-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1570.18	1475.71	52.59%	47.17%	+12.11	9-6
1992-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 27-3	1582.29	1611.52	56.51%	43.24%	+31.40	10-6
1992-09-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-3	1356.38	1465.45	45.08%	54.68%	+26.87	1-0
1992-09-13	Houston Oilers	L 10-20	1383.25	1534.50	39.17%	60.59%	-18.37	1-1
1992-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-38	1364.88	1617.79	13.06%	86.70%	-11.94	1-2
1992-10-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-14	1352.94	1465.16	25.23%	74.52%	+34.90	2-2
1992-10-11	New York Jets	W 6-3	1387.84	1430.58	54.60%	45.16%	+11.59	3-2
1992-10-18	San Diego Chargers	L 14-34	1399.43	1405.96	59.69%	40.07%	-39.53	3-3
1992-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-20	1359.90	1609.10	13.30%	86.46%	+42.47	4-3
1992-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-26	1402.37	1459.81	31.63%	68.13%	-23.92	4-4
1992-11-08	Miami Dolphins	L 0-28	1378.45	1534.95	38.45%	61.31%	-30.16	4-5
1992-11-15	New England Patriots	L 34-37	1348.29	1288.31	68.44%	31.32%	-17.56	4-6
1992-11-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-30	1330.73	1568.61	14.07%	85.69%	-8.35	4-7
1992-11-29	Buffalo Bills	W 16-13	1322.38	1629.32	20.81%	78.95%	+20.25	5-7
1992-12-06	@ New England Patriots	W 6-0	1342.63	1322.68	41.94%	57.82%	+20.98	6-7
1992-12-13	@ New York Jets	W 10-6	1363.61	1410.66	32.94%	66.82%	+19.79	7-7
1992-12-20	Phoenix Cardinals	W 16-13	1383.40	1389.37	59.77%	39.99%	+10.27	8-7
1992-12-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-17	1393.67	1367.61	42.80%	56.96%	+16.87	9-7
1992-09-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-10	1550.68	1462.55	51.68%	48.08%	+26.65	1-0
1992-09-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 26-7	1577.33	1449.72	76.16%	23.60%	+15.26	2-0
1992-09-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-23	1592.59	1552.86	44.73%	55.02%	-11.48	2-1
1992-09-28	Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-7	1581.11	1452.15	76.30%	23.46%	+15.57	3-1
1992-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-20	1596.68	1565.68	43.49%	56.26%	-6.45	3-2
1992-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-17	1590.23	1634.69	54.35%	45.41%	+17.80	4-2
1992-10-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1608.03	1578.85	43.24%	56.52%	-16.95	4-3
1992-10-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1591.08	1521.92	69.57%	30.19%	-50.47	4-4
1992-11-08	San Diego Chargers	W 16-14	1540.61	1483.73	68.06%	31.70%	+6.64	5-4
1992-11-15	Washington Redskins	W 35-16	1547.25	1633.51	48.35%	51.41%	+33.20	6-4
1992-11-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-14	1580.45	1326.66	73.46%	26.30%	+12.34	7-4
1992-11-29	@ New York Jets	W 23-7	1592.79	1396.98	66.50%	33.25%	+19.72	8-4
1992-12-06	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-28	1612.51	1492.63	56.21%	43.55%	-38.16	8-5
1992-12-13	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1574.35	1301.71	87.94%	11.82%	+4.65	9-5
1992-12-19	@ New York Giants	L 21-35	1579.00	1422.75	61.27%	38.49%	-33.96	9-6
1992-12-27	Denver Broncos	W 42-20	1545.04	1504.50	65.99%	33.77%	+23.49	10-6
1992-09-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-17	1508.49	1551.93	33.40%	66.36%	-9.90	0-1
1992-09-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-24	1498.59	1471.35	42.96%	56.80%	-11.03	0-2
1992-09-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-28	1487.56	1422.90	69.02%	30.74%	-35.41	0-3
1992-09-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-27	1452.15	1581.11	23.46%	76.30%	-15.56	0-4
1992-10-04	New York Giants	W 13-10	1436.59	1506.80	50.66%	49.10%	+12.60	1-4
1992-10-11	Buffalo Bills	W 20-3	1449.19	1593.89	40.07%	59.69%	+36.45	2-4
1992-10-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-0	1485.64	1399.76	51.36%	48.40%	+31.26	3-4
1992-10-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-28	1516.90	1595.80	49.41%	50.35%	-28.35	3-5
1992-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-31	1488.55	1592.75	26.11%	73.64%	-17.75	3-6
1992-11-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-3	1470.80	1340.96	76.39%	23.37%	+14.29	4-6
1992-11-22	Denver Broncos	W 24-0	1485.09	1581.62	46.87%	52.88%	+38.38	5-6
1992-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-27	1523.47	1499.75	42.47%	57.29%	-30.84	5-7
1992-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-7	1492.63	1612.51	43.55%	56.21%	+38.16	6-7
1992-12-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-20	1530.79	1528.04	39.55%	60.21%	-21.14	6-8
1992-12-20	San Diego Chargers	L 14-36	1509.65	1555.63	54.13%	45.62%	-37.61	6-9
1992-12-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-20	1472.04	1622.90	21.27%	78.49%	+11.62	7-9
1992-09-06	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-40	1405.12	1584.88	18.62%	81.14%	-15.87	0-1
1992-09-13	New England Patriots	W 14-0	1389.25	1405.49	58.34%	41.42%	+22.97	1-1
1992-09-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-26	1412.22	1508.46	27.01%	72.75%	-16.02	1-2
1992-09-27	New York Jets	W 18-10	1396.20	1436.09	55.00%	44.76%	+18.76	2-2
1992-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-27	1414.96	1668.79	13.00%	86.76%	-3.34	2-3
1992-10-11	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-13	1411.62	1585.98	19.09%	80.66%	-4.91	2-4
1992-10-18	New York Giants	W 38-17	1406.71	1505.20	46.59%	53.16%	+36.09	3-4
1992-11-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1442.80	1487.93	33.18%	66.58%	-6.96	3-5
1992-11-08	Phoenix Cardinals	L 14-20	1435.84	1377.08	68.29%	31.47%	-24.77	3-6
1992-11-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-23	1411.07	1675.12	12.34%	87.41%	+25.89	4-6
1992-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-27	1436.96	1698.19	25.48%	74.28%	-15.58	4-7
1992-11-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-31	1421.38	1606.87	34.59%	65.17%	-19.19	4-8
1992-12-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-27	1402.19	1337.52	48.30%	51.45%	+15.25	5-8
1992-12-13	New Orleans Saints	L 14-37	1417.44	1659.64	27.61%	72.15%	-19.64	5-9
1992-12-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-28	1397.80	1515.69	24.62%	75.13%	-14.15	5-10
1992-12-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-27	1383.65	1471.82	48.07%	51.68%	+25.40	6-10
1992-09-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-23	1492.77	1438.59	46.80%	52.96%	+15.69	1-0
1992-09-20	Los Angeles Rams	W 26-10	1508.46	1412.22	72.75%	27.01%	+16.02	2-0
1992-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-17	1524.48	1450.25	49.68%	50.08%	+10.49	3-0
1992-10-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 37-10	1534.97	1651.60	24.76%	75.00%	+57.72	4-0
1992-10-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-17	1592.69	1514.13	70.70%	29.06%	+8.62	5-0
1992-10-18	New England Patriots	W 38-17	1601.31	1322.46	88.31%	11.45%	+7.79	6-0
1992-10-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-31	1609.10	1359.90	86.46%	13.30%	-42.47	6-1
1992-11-01	@ New York Jets	L 14-26	1566.63	1406.86	61.75%	38.01%	-31.68	6-2
1992-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 28-0	1534.95	1378.45	61.31%	38.45%	+30.16	7-2
1992-11-16	Buffalo Bills	L 20-26	1565.11	1591.73	56.88%	42.88%	-20.64	7-3
1992-11-22	Houston Oilers	W 19-16	1544.47	1571.90	56.77%	42.99%	+11.04	8-3
1992-11-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-24	1555.51	1637.65	28.64%	71.12%	-14.09	8-4
1992-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-27	1541.42	1723.72	18.40%	81.36%	-13.38	8-5
1992-12-14	Los Angeles Raiders	W 20-7	1528.04	1530.79	60.21%	39.55%	+21.14	9-5
1992-12-20	New York Jets	W 19-17	1549.18	1390.87	79.20%	20.56%	+4.32	10-5
1992-12-27	@ New England Patriots	W 16-13	1553.50	1282.12	75.37%	24.39%	+6.26	11-5
1992-09-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1471.21	1460.36	40.67%	59.09%	+15.16	1-0
1992-09-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-31	1486.37	1543.73	31.64%	68.12%	-17.56	1-1
1992-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-20	1468.81	1456.77	62.23%	37.53%	+13.63	2-1
1992-09-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 42-7	1482.44	1475.11	40.18%	59.58%	+52.20	3-1
1992-10-04	Chicago Bears	W 21-20	1534.64	1494.06	65.99%	33.77%	+5.01	4-1
1992-10-15	Detroit Lions	W 31-14	1539.65	1511.42	64.39%	35.37%	+21.62	5-1
1992-10-25	Washington Redskins	L 13-15	1561.27	1660.32	46.51%	53.25%	-9.74	5-2
1992-11-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-10	1551.53	1539.73	40.80%	58.96%	+46.20	6-2
1992-11-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1597.73	1367.23	70.78%	28.98%	+22.75	7-2
1992-11-15	Houston Oilers	L 13-17	1620.48	1551.30	69.57%	30.19%	-20.61	7-3
1992-11-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-13	1599.87	1472.30	76.15%	23.60%	+7.00	8-3
1992-11-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-17	1606.87	1421.38	65.17%	34.59%	+19.19	9-3
1992-12-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-28	1626.06	1610.90	41.27%	58.49%	-20.29	9-4
1992-12-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1605.77	1737.10	41.93%	57.82%	-10.76	9-5
1992-12-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 6-3	1595.01	1550.54	45.41%	54.35%	+13.94	10-5
1992-12-27	Green Bay Packers	W 27-7	1608.95	1529.84	70.76%	29.00%	+19.23	11-5
1992-09-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-14	1405.49	1389.25	41.42%	58.34%	-22.97	0-1
1992-09-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-10	1382.52	1434.46	53.28%	46.48%	-15.78	0-2
1992-09-27	Buffalo Bills	L 7-41	1366.74	1629.73	25.29%	74.47%	-21.87	0-3
1992-10-04	@ New York Jets	L 21-30	1344.87	1417.33	29.79%	69.97%	-13.26	0-4
1992-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-24	1331.61	1672.13	17.80%	81.95%	-9.15	0-5
1992-10-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-38	1322.46	1601.31	11.45%	88.31%	-7.79	0-6
1992-10-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-19	1314.67	1472.98	38.21%	61.55%	-8.01	0-7
1992-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-16	1306.66	1569.58	12.42%	87.34%	-5.53	0-8
1992-11-08	New Orleans Saints	L 14-31	1301.13	1606.48	20.96%	78.80%	-12.82	0-9
1992-11-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 37-34	1288.31	1348.29	31.32%	68.44%	+17.56	1-9
1992-11-22	New York Jets	W 24-3	1305.87	1436.12	42.08%	57.68%	+39.14	2-9
1992-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-34	1345.01	1451.90	25.82%	73.94%	-22.33	2-10
1992-12-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 0-6	1322.68	1342.63	57.82%	41.94%	-20.97	2-11
1992-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1301.71	1574.35	11.82%	87.94%	-4.65	2-12
1992-12-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-20	1297.06	1352.67	31.86%	67.90%	-14.94	2-13
1992-12-27	Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1282.12	1553.50	24.39%	75.37%	-6.26	2-14
1992-09-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-15	1552.26	1547.12	39.88%	59.88%	-8.36	0-1
1992-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 28-6	1543.90	1534.02	61.93%	37.82%	+26.30	1-1
1992-09-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 10-7	1570.20	1530.99	44.66%	55.10%	+14.14	2-1
1992-09-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-16	1584.34	1650.18	51.29%	48.47%	-18.61	2-2
1992-10-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-7	1565.73	1531.67	43.93%	55.83%	+20.25	3-2
1992-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 13-10	1585.98	1411.62	80.66%	19.09%	+4.91	4-2
1992-10-18	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 30-21	1590.89	1354.14	71.51%	28.24%	+12.57	5-2
1992-11-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-21	1603.46	1370.25	85.36%	14.40%	+3.02	6-2
1992-11-08	@ New England Patriots	W 31-14	1606.48	1301.13	78.80%	20.96%	+12.82	7-2
1992-11-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-21	1619.30	1693.81	29.55%	70.21%	-4.38	7-3
1992-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 20-3	1614.92	1600.31	62.57%	37.19%	+22.73	8-3
1992-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 24-13	1637.65	1555.51	71.12%	28.64%	+14.09	9-3
1992-12-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-14	1651.74	1474.23	80.94%	18.82%	+7.90	10-3
1992-12-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-14	1659.64	1417.44	72.15%	27.61%	+19.64	11-3
1992-12-20	Buffalo Bills	L 16-20	1679.28	1590.21	71.93%	27.83%	-21.31	11-4
1992-12-26	@ New York Jets	W 20-0	1657.97	1386.56	75.38%	24.38%	+16.18	12-4
1992-09-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-31	1518.68	1616.21	46.73%	53.03%	-28.55	0-1
1992-09-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-34	1490.13	1563.09	50.26%	49.50%	-18.24	0-2
1992-09-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-14	1471.89	1507.72	34.38%	65.38%	+34.91	1-2
1992-10-04	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-13	1506.80	1436.59	49.10%	50.66%	-12.60	1-3
1992-10-11	Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-21	1494.20	1365.14	76.31%	23.45%	+11.00	2-3
1992-10-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-38	1505.20	1406.71	53.16%	46.59%	-36.09	2-4
1992-10-25	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-10	1469.11	1368.50	73.24%	26.52%	+14.18	3-4
1992-11-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-7	1483.29	1670.07	18.01%	81.74%	+49.91	4-4
1992-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 27-7	1533.20	1427.56	73.80%	25.96%	+17.22	5-4
1992-11-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-27	1550.42	1560.66	37.78%	61.98%	-20.95	5-5
1992-11-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 34-47	1529.47	1593.30	51.57%	48.18%	-27.55	5-6
1992-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-30	1501.92	1658.72	20.71%	79.05%	-15.96	5-7
1992-12-06	Washington Redskins	L 10-28	1485.96	1593.56	45.29%	54.47%	-28.48	5-8
1992-12-12	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 0-19	1457.48	1354.64	53.79%	45.97%	-34.73	5-9
1992-12-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-21	1422.75	1579.00	38.49%	61.27%	+33.96	6-9
1992-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-20	1456.71	1648.15	17.62%	82.14%	-8.27	6-10
1992-09-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1488.57	1533.70	33.18%	66.57%	-8.52	0-1
1992-09-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-27	1480.05	1509.79	35.18%	64.58%	-21.50	0-2
1992-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-31	1458.55	1627.72	36.74%	63.02%	-22.46	0-3
1992-09-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-18	1436.09	1396.20	44.76%	55.00%	-18.76	0-4
1992-10-04	New England Patriots	W 30-21	1417.33	1344.87	69.97%	29.79%	+13.25	1-4
1992-10-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-6	1430.58	1387.84	45.16%	54.60%	-11.59	1-5
1992-10-26	Buffalo Bills	L 20-24	1418.99	1557.44	40.94%	58.82%	-12.13	1-6
1992-11-01	Miami Dolphins	W 26-14	1406.86	1566.63	38.01%	61.75%	+31.68	2-6
1992-11-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-27	1438.54	1548.11	25.52%	74.23%	-12.56	2-7
1992-11-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-14	1425.98	1428.41	60.25%	39.50%	+10.14	3-7
1992-11-22	@ New England Patriots	L 3-24	1436.12	1305.87	57.68%	42.08%	-39.14	3-8
1992-11-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-23	1396.98	1592.79	33.25%	66.50%	-19.73	3-9
1992-12-06	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-17	1377.25	1609.07	14.50%	85.26%	+33.41	4-9
1992-12-13	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1410.66	1363.61	66.82%	32.94%	-19.79	4-10
1992-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-19	1390.87	1549.18	20.56%	79.20%	-4.31	4-11
1992-12-26	New Orleans Saints	L 0-20	1386.56	1657.97	24.38%	75.38%	-16.18	4-12
1992-09-06	New Orleans Saints	W 15-13	1547.12	1552.26	59.88%	39.88%	+8.36	1-0
1992-09-13	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-14	1555.48	1373.78	64.68%	35.08%	+21.45	2-0
1992-09-20	Denver Broncos	W 30-0	1576.93	1571.81	61.29%	38.47%	+31.23	3-0
1992-10-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-7	1608.16	1588.57	63.24%	36.52%	+26.53	4-0
1992-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-24	1634.69	1590.23	45.41%	54.35%	-17.81	4-1
1992-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 12-16	1616.88	1650.02	34.73%	65.03%	-10.30	4-2
1992-10-25	Phoenix Cardinals	W 7-3	1606.58	1341.57	87.47%	12.29%	+3.65	5-2
1992-11-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-20	1610.23	1624.15	37.28%	62.48%	-17.48	5-3
1992-11-08	Los Angeles Raiders	W 31-10	1592.75	1488.55	73.64%	26.11%	+17.76	6-3
1992-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-27	1610.51	1410.34	67.06%	32.70%	-17.21	6-4
1992-11-22	@ New York Giants	W 47-34	1593.30	1529.47	48.18%	51.57%	+27.55	7-4
1992-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-20	1620.85	1713.77	27.39%	72.37%	-9.95	7-5
1992-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-17	1610.90	1626.06	58.49%	41.27%	+20.29	8-5
1992-12-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1631.19	1327.91	78.60%	21.16%	+5.44	9-5
1992-12-20	Washington Redskins	W 17-13	1636.63	1634.42	60.89%	38.87%	+11.52	10-5
1992-12-27	New York Giants	W 20-10	1648.15	1456.71	82.14%	17.62%	+8.27	11-5
1992-09-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-23	1396.68	1400.81	38.60%	61.15%	-22.90	0-1
1992-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-31	1373.78	1555.48	35.08%	64.68%	-21.44	0-2
1992-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-31	1352.34	1581.33	14.70%	85.06%	-7.24	0-3
1992-10-04	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1345.10	1643.29	21.65%	78.11%	+20.04	1-3
1992-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 21-31	1365.14	1494.20	23.45%	76.31%	-11.00	1-4
1992-10-18	New Orleans Saints	L 21-30	1354.14	1590.89	28.24%	71.51%	-12.57	1-5
1992-10-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-7	1341.57	1606.58	12.29%	87.47%	-3.65	1-6
1992-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-14	1337.92	1698.86	16.15%	83.61%	+39.16	2-6
1992-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1377.08	1435.84	31.47%	68.29%	+24.78	3-6
1992-11-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1401.86	1460.78	31.45%	68.31%	-8.08	3-7
1992-11-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-16	1393.78	1649.23	26.11%	73.64%	-9.49	3-8
1992-11-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-41	1384.29	1577.58	17.47%	82.29%	-15.98	3-9
1992-12-06	San Diego Chargers	L 21-27	1368.31	1530.58	37.67%	62.09%	-13.67	3-10
1992-12-12	New York Giants	W 19-0	1354.64	1457.48	45.97%	53.79%	+34.73	4-10
1992-12-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-16	1389.37	1383.40	39.99%	59.77%	-10.27	4-11
1992-12-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-7	1379.10	1289.04	72.04%	27.72%	-21.34	4-12
1992-09-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 29-24	1486.68	1557.60	29.98%	69.78%	+23.11	1-0
1992-09-13	New York Jets	W 27-10	1509.79	1480.05	64.58%	35.18%	+21.50	2-0
1992-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-6	1531.29	1425.91	54.15%	45.61%	+27.87	3-0
1992-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-17	1559.16	1419.41	59.00%	40.76%	-32.70	3-1
1992-10-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-17	1526.46	1433.19	52.42%	47.34%	-21.96	3-2
1992-10-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-0	1504.50	1401.59	73.50%	26.26%	+17.42	4-2
1992-10-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-3	1521.92	1591.08	30.19%	69.57%	+50.47	5-2
1992-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 21-20	1572.39	1593.93	57.60%	42.16%	+6.25	6-2
1992-11-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-28	1578.64	1575.10	39.66%	60.10%	-16.63	6-3
1992-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1562.01	1453.82	74.08%	25.68%	+6.60	7-3
1992-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-14	1568.61	1330.73	85.69%	14.07%	+8.35	8-3
1992-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-9	1576.96	1397.75	64.35%	35.41%	+18.19	9-3
1992-12-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-14	1595.15	1332.43	87.33%	12.43%	+4.52	10-3
1992-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-30	1599.67	1394.28	67.72%	32.04%	-49.13	10-4
1992-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 3-6	1550.54	1595.01	54.35%	45.41%	-13.95	10-5
1992-12-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-13	1536.59	1463.60	70.03%	29.73%	+13.94	11-5
1992-09-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-24	1462.55	1550.68	48.08%	51.68%	-26.66	0-1
1992-09-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-21	1435.89	1561.84	23.77%	75.99%	-9.98	0-2
1992-09-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-23	1425.91	1531.29	45.61%	54.15%	-27.86	0-3
1992-09-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-27	1398.05	1564.34	19.82%	79.94%	-15.28	0-4
1992-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-6	1382.77	1439.76	52.56%	47.20%	+23.19	1-4
1992-10-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-14	1405.96	1399.43	40.07%	59.69%	+39.54	2-4
1992-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 24-21	1445.50	1562.42	43.96%	55.79%	+14.31	3-4
1992-11-01	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-0	1459.81	1402.37	68.13%	31.63%	+23.92	4-4
1992-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1483.73	1540.61	31.70%	68.06%	-6.65	4-5
1992-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-13	1477.08	1481.36	38.59%	61.17%	+9.06	5-5
1992-11-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 29-14	1486.14	1359.30	76.08%	23.68%	+13.61	6-5
1992-11-29	Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-3	1499.75	1523.47	57.29%	42.47%	+30.83	7-5
1992-12-06	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 27-21	1530.58	1368.31	62.09%	37.67%	+13.68	8-5
1992-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1544.26	1364.04	81.18%	18.58%	+11.37	9-5
1992-12-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 36-14	1555.63	1509.65	45.62%	54.13%	+37.61	10-5
1992-12-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-14	1593.24	1316.86	75.90%	23.86%	+14.59	11-5
1992-09-06	@ New York Giants	W 31-14	1616.21	1518.68	53.03%	46.73%	+28.55	1-0
1992-09-13	Buffalo Bills	L 31-34	1644.76	1600.75	66.43%	33.33%	-17.04	1-1
1992-09-20	@ New York Jets	W 31-14	1627.72	1458.55	63.02%	36.74%	+22.46	2-1
1992-09-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-10	1650.18	1584.34	48.47%	51.29%	+18.61	3-1
1992-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1668.79	1414.96	86.76%	13.00%	+3.34	4-1
1992-10-11	@ New England Patriots	W 24-12	1672.13	1331.61	81.95%	17.80%	+9.15	5-1
1992-10-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 56-17	1681.28	1505.50	80.79%	18.97%	+17.58	6-1
1992-11-01	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 14-24	1698.86	1337.92	83.61%	16.15%	-39.16	6-2
1992-11-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 41-3	1659.70	1494.89	62.43%	37.33%	+34.11	7-2
1992-11-15	New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1693.81	1619.30	70.21%	29.55%	+4.38	8-2
1992-11-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-10	1698.19	1436.96	74.28%	25.48%	+15.58	9-2
1992-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1713.77	1620.85	72.37%	27.39%	+9.95	10-2
1992-12-06	Miami Dolphins	W 27-3	1723.72	1541.42	81.36%	18.40%	+13.38	11-2
1992-12-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1737.10	1605.77	57.82%	41.93%	+10.76	12-2
1992-12-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-14	1747.86	1290.78	95.33%	4.43%	+1.74	13-2
1992-12-28	Detroit Lions	W 24-6	1749.60	1470.20	88.34%	11.42%	+7.20	14-2
1992-09-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-21	1493.13	1427.95	69.08%	30.68%	-43.41	0-1
1992-09-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-26	1449.72	1577.33	23.60%	76.16%	-15.26	0-2
1992-09-20	@ New England Patriots	W 10-6	1434.46	1382.52	46.48%	53.28%	+15.79	1-2
1992-09-27	Miami Dolphins	L 17-19	1450.25	1524.48	50.08%	49.68%	-10.49	1-3
1992-10-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-17	1439.76	1382.77	47.20%	52.56%	-23.20	1-4
1992-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-27	1416.56	1562.04	21.80%	77.96%	-16.80	1-5
1992-10-18	Los Angeles Raiders	L 0-19	1399.76	1485.64	48.40%	51.36%	-31.26	1-6
1992-10-25	@ New York Giants	L 10-23	1368.50	1469.11	26.52%	73.24%	-14.19	1-7
1992-11-08	Washington Redskins	L 3-16	1354.31	1620.15	24.98%	74.78%	-13.35	1-8
1992-11-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-20	1340.96	1470.80	23.37%	76.39%	-14.30	1-9
1992-11-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-24	1326.66	1580.45	26.30%	73.46%	-12.33	1-10
1992-11-30	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1314.33	1543.24	29.17%	70.59%	+18.10	2-10
1992-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-20	1332.43	1595.15	12.43%	87.33%	-4.52	2-11
1992-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-20	1327.91	1631.19	21.16%	78.60%	-5.43	2-12
1992-12-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-10	1322.48	1498.89	18.91%	80.85%	-5.62	2-13
1992-12-27	San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1316.86	1593.24	23.86%	75.90%	-14.59	2-14
1992-09-06	Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-7	1400.81	1396.68	61.15%	38.60%	+22.90	1-0
1992-09-13	Green Bay Packers	W 31-3	1423.71	1445.20	57.60%	42.16%	+33.06	2-0
1992-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-26	1456.77	1468.81	37.53%	62.23%	-13.63	2-1
1992-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-23	1443.14	1553.69	25.42%	74.34%	+22.02	3-1
1992-10-04	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-24	1465.16	1352.94	74.52%	25.23%	-34.90	3-2
1992-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-31	1430.26	1489.06	31.46%	68.30%	-19.24	3-3
1992-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 7-38	1411.02	1489.79	49.43%	50.33%	-40.77	3-4
1992-11-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-23	1370.25	1603.46	14.40%	85.36%	-3.02	3-5
1992-11-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-35	1367.23	1597.73	28.98%	70.78%	-22.75	3-6
1992-11-15	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1344.48	1475.25	42.01%	57.75%	+14.82	4-6
1992-11-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-29	1359.30	1486.14	23.68%	76.08%	-13.61	4-7
1992-11-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-19	1345.69	1463.56	24.63%	75.13%	-8.17	4-8
1992-12-06	Los Angeles Rams	L 27-31	1337.52	1402.19	51.45%	48.30%	-15.24	4-9
1992-12-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-35	1322.28	1466.33	40.16%	59.60%	-31.50	4-10
1992-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-21	1290.78	1747.86	4.43%	95.33%	-1.74	4-11
1992-12-27	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 7-3	1289.04	1379.10	27.72%	72.04%	+21.34	5-11
1992-09-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-23	1654.62	1532.93	56.47%	43.29%	-30.16	0-1
1992-09-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-17	1624.46	1542.22	71.13%	28.63%	+11.24	1-1
1992-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 13-10	1635.70	1561.28	70.20%	29.56%	+7.59	2-1
1992-10-04	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 24-27	1643.29	1345.10	78.11%	21.65%	-20.04	2-2
1992-10-12	Denver Broncos	W 34-3	1623.25	1572.13	67.34%	32.42%	+26.77	3-2
1992-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-12	1650.02	1616.88	65.03%	34.73%	+10.30	4-2
1992-10-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 15-13	1660.32	1561.27	53.25%	46.51%	+9.75	5-2
1992-11-01	New York Giants	L 7-24	1670.07	1483.29	81.74%	18.01%	-49.92	5-3
1992-11-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 16-3	1620.15	1354.31	74.78%	24.98%	+13.36	6-3
1992-11-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-35	1633.51	1547.25	51.41%	48.35%	-33.20	6-4
1992-11-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-20	1600.31	1614.92	37.19%	62.57%	-22.73	6-5
1992-11-29	Phoenix Cardinals	W 41-3	1577.58	1384.29	82.29%	17.47%	+15.98	7-5
1992-12-06	@ New York Giants	W 28-10	1593.56	1485.96	54.47%	45.29%	+28.48	8-5
1992-12-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1622.04	1686.36	51.50%	48.25%	+12.38	9-5
1992-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-17	1634.42	1636.63	38.87%	60.89%	-11.52	9-6
1992-12-26	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-21	1622.90	1472.04	78.49%	21.27%	-11.63	9-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1993-01-03	Houston Oilers	W 41-38	1580.12	1613.69	56.02%	43.98%	+11.26	1-0
1993-01-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-3	1591.38	1550.53	45.01%	54.99%	+37.24	2-0
1993-01-17	@ Miami Dolphins	W 29-10	1628.62	1600.10	43.26%	56.74%	+36.55	3-0
1993-01-31	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-52	1665.17	1763.87	36.17%	63.83%	-31.62	3-1
1993-01-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-10	1706.17	1693.74	62.41%	37.59%	+27.22	1-0
1993-01-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-20	1733.39	1766.92	34.79%	65.21%	+30.48	2-0
1993-01-31	Buffalo Bills	W 52-17	1763.87	1665.17	63.83%	36.17%	+31.63	3-0
1993-01-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 38-41	1613.69	1580.12	43.98%	56.02%	-11.26	0-1
1993-01-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-17	1568.53	1607.83	34.04%	65.96%	-20.74	0-1
1993-01-10	San Diego Chargers	W 31-0	1559.76	1628.58	50.98%	49.02%	+40.34	1-0
1993-01-17	Buffalo Bills	L 10-29	1600.10	1628.62	56.74%	43.26%	-36.55	1-1
1993-01-02	Washington Redskins	L 7-24	1628.18	1611.27	63.01%	36.99%	-38.39	0-1
1993-01-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-36	1674.15	1656.42	63.12%	36.88%	-37.32	0-1
1993-01-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 36-20	1656.42	1674.15	36.88%	63.12%	+37.32	1-0
1993-01-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-34	1693.74	1706.17	37.59%	62.41%	-27.22	1-1
1993-01-09	Buffalo Bills	L 3-24	1550.53	1591.38	54.99%	45.01%	-37.24	0-1
1993-01-02	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-0	1607.83	1568.53	65.96%	34.04%	+20.75	1-0
1993-01-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-31	1628.58	1559.76	49.02%	50.98%	-40.34	1-1
1993-01-09	Washington Redskins	W 20-13	1756.80	1649.67	74.12%	25.88%	+10.12	1-0
1993-01-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-30	1766.92	1733.39	65.21%	34.79%	-30.48	1-1
1993-01-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-7	1611.27	1628.18	36.99%	63.01%	+38.40	1-0
1993-01-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-20	1649.67	1756.80	25.88%	74.12%	-10.12	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1992-11-15	12.34%	Los Angeles Rams	1411.07	27	@ Dallas Cowboys	1675.12	23
2	1992-10-25	13.30%	Indianapolis Colts	1359.90	31	@ Miami Dolphins	1609.10	20
3	1992-12-06	14.50%	New York Jets	1377.25	24	@ Buffalo Bills	1609.07	17
4	1992-11-01	16.15%	@ Phoenix Cardinals	1337.92	24	San Francisco 49ers	1698.86	14
5	1992-11-01	18.01%	New York Giants	1483.29	24	@ Washington Redskins	1670.07	7
6	1992-11-29	20.81%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1322.38	16	Buffalo Bills	1629.32	13
7	1992-12-26	21.27%	Los Angeles Raiders	1472.04	21	@ Washington Redskins	1622.90	20
8	1992-10-04	21.65%	@ Phoenix Cardinals	1345.10	27	Washington Redskins	1643.29	24
9	1992-11-01	21.72%	Green Bay Packers	1384.32	27	@ Detroit Lions	1530.56	13
10	1992-11-08	22.07%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1444.98	24	@ Houston Oilers	1587.68	14
11	1992-10-04	24.76%	Miami Dolphins	1534.97	37	@ Buffalo Bills	1651.60	10
12	1992-10-04	25.23%	Indianapolis Colts	1352.94	24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1465.16	14
13	1992-09-27	25.42%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1443.14	27	@ Detroit Lions	1553.69	23
14	1992-12-27	27.72%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1289.04	7	@ Phoenix Cardinals	1379.10	3
15	1992-12-20	27.83%	Buffalo Bills	1590.21	20	@ New Orleans Saints	1679.28	16
16	1992-12-13	28.37%	Green Bay Packers	1500.74	16	@ Houston Oilers	1585.13	14
17	1992-11-08	28.49%	Cincinnati Bengals	1410.13	31	@ Chicago Bears	1493.53	28
18	1992-11-30	29.17%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1314.33	16	Denver Broncos	1543.24	13
19	1992-09-06	29.98%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1486.68	29	@ Houston Oilers	1557.60	24
20	1992-10-25	30.19%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1521.92	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1591.08	3
21	1992-11-15	30.19%	Houston Oilers	1551.30	17	@ Minnesota Vikings	1620.48	13
22	1992-09-06	30.68%	Cincinnati Bengals	1427.95	21	@ Seattle Seahawks	1493.13	3
23	1992-09-20	30.74%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1422.90	28	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1487.56	16
24	1992-11-15	31.32%	New England Patriots	1288.31	37	@ Indianapolis Colts	1348.29	34
25	1992-11-08	31.47%	Phoenix Cardinals	1377.08	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1435.84	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1992-10-04	57.72	Miami Dolphins	37	1534.97	24.76%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1651.60	75.00%
2	1992-09-27	52.21	Minnesota Vikings	42	1482.44	40.18%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	7	1475.11	59.58%
3	1992-10-25	50.47	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1521.92	30.19%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	3	1591.08	69.57%
4	1992-11-01	49.92	New York Giants	24	1483.29	18.01%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1670.07	81.74%
5	1992-12-13	49.13	@ Chicago Bears	30	1394.28	32.04%	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1599.67	67.72%
6	1992-11-02	46.20	Minnesota Vikings	38	1551.53	40.80%	@ Chicago Bears	10	1539.73	58.96%
7	1992-09-06	43.41	Cincinnati Bengals	21	1427.95	30.68%	@ Seattle Seahawks	3	1493.13	69.08%
8	1992-11-01	43.24	Green Bay Packers	27	1384.32	21.72%	@ Detroit Lions	13	1530.56	78.04%
9	1992-10-25	42.47	Indianapolis Colts	31	1359.90	13.30%	@ Miami Dolphins	20	1609.10	86.46%
10	1992-10-25	40.77	Detroit Lions	38	1489.79	50.33%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	1411.02	49.43%
11	1993-01-10 *	40.34	@ Miami Dolphins	31	1559.76	50.98%	San Diego Chargers	0	1628.58	49.02%
12	1992-10-18	39.54	San Diego Chargers	34	1405.96	40.07%	@ Indianapolis Colts	14	1399.43	59.69%
13	1992-11-01	39.16	@ Phoenix Cardinals	24	1337.92	16.15%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1698.86	83.61%
14	1992-11-22	39.14	@ New England Patriots	24	1305.87	42.08%	New York Jets	3	1436.12	57.68%
15	1993-01-02 *	38.40	Washington Redskins	24	1611.27	36.99%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1628.18	63.01%
16	1992-11-22	38.38	@ Los Angeles Raiders	24	1485.09	46.87%	Denver Broncos	0	1581.62	52.88%
17	1992-12-06	38.16	@ Los Angeles Raiders	28	1492.63	43.55%	Kansas City Chiefs	7	1612.51	56.21%
18	1992-12-20	37.61	San Diego Chargers	36	1555.63	45.62%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	14	1509.65	54.13%
19	1993-01-03 *	37.32	Philadelphia Eagles	36	1656.42	36.88%	@ New Orleans Saints	20	1674.15	63.12%
20	1993-01-09 *	37.24	Buffalo Bills	24	1591.38	45.01%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1550.53	54.99%
21	1993-01-17 *	36.55	Buffalo Bills	29	1628.62	43.26%	@ Miami Dolphins	10	1600.10	56.74%
22	1992-10-11	36.45	@ Los Angeles Raiders	20	1449.19	40.07%	Buffalo Bills	3	1593.89	59.69%
23	1992-11-08	36.38	Cleveland Browns (1st)	24	1444.98	22.07%	@ Houston Oilers	14	1587.68	77.69%
24	1992-10-18	36.09	@ Los Angeles Rams	38	1406.71	46.59%	New York Giants	17	1505.20	53.16%
25	1992-11-22	36.02	Green Bay Packers	17	1427.54	34.76%	@ Chicago Bears	3	1460.43	65.00%