1989 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1988

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1987

Biggest Overachiever

San Francisco 49ers

3.03 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.97 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Dallas Cowboys

4.14 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.14 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	9	6	1	.594	—	334	254	+80	9.42	+0.08
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	9	7	0	.562	0.5	365	412	-47	8.76	+0.24
3	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	9	7	0	.562	0.5	265	326	-61	7.02	+1.98
4	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	0	.500	1.5	404	285	+119	9.10	-1.10

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	9	7	.562	—	409	317	+92	9.10	-0.10
2	Indianapolis Colts	8	8	.500	1	298	301	-3	8.17	-0.17
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	1	331	379	-48	7.62	+0.38
4	New England Patriots	5	11	.312	4	297	391	-94	7.09	-2.09
5	New York Jets	4	12	.250	5	253	411	-158	6.94	-2.94

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	11	5	0	.688	—	362	226	+136	9.51	+1.49
2	Kansas City Chiefs	8	7	1	.531	2.5	318	286	+32	7.17	+1.33
3	Los Angeles Raiders	8	8	0	.500	3	315	297	+18	7.81	+0.19
4	Seattle Seahawks	7	9	0	.438	4	241	327	-86	7.43	-0.43
5	San Diego Chargers	6	10	0	.375	5	266	290	-24	6.52	-0.52

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	10	6	.625	—	351	275	+76	9.68	+0.32
2	Green Bay Packers	10	6	.625	—	362	356	+6	7.57	+2.43
3	Detroit Lions	7	9	.438	3	312	364	-52	5.82	+1.18
4	Chicago Bears	6	10	.375	4	358	377	-19	9.17	-3.17
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	5	320	419	-99	6.22	-1.22

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	12	4	.750	—	348	252	+96	9.42	+2.58
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	342	274	+68	9.04	+1.96
3	Washington Redskins	10	6	.625	2	386	308	+78	8.48	+1.52
4	Phoenix Cardinals	5	11	.312	7	258	377	-119	7.24	-2.24
5	Dallas Cowboys	1	15	.062	11	204	393	-189	5.14	-4.14

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	14	2	.875	—	442	253	+189	10.97	+3.03
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	11	5	.688	3	426	344	+82	9.10	+1.90
3	New Orleans Saints	9	7	.562	5	386	301	+85	8.77	+0.23
4	Atlanta Falcons	3	13	.188	11	279	437	-158	5.70	-2.70

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 26

Houston Oilers 23

Dec 31

Divisional Round

Cleveland Browns (1st) 34

Buffalo Bills 30

Jan 6

Denver Broncos 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Jan 7

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 37

Cleveland Browns (1st) 21

Jan 14

NFC

Wild Card Round

Los Angeles Rams 21

Philadelphia Eagles 7

Dec 31

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 41

Minnesota Vikings 13

Jan 6

Los Angeles Rams 19

New York Giants 13

Jan 7

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 30

Los Angeles Rams 3

Jan 14

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 55

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1689	14	10.97	+3.03	98.31%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1593	12	9.42	+2.58	95.49%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1587	10	9.68	+0.32	66.99%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1587	11	9.10	+1.90	89.70%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1585	11	9.51	+1.49	85.53%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1578	9	8.77	+0.23	65.25%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1569	11	9.04	+1.96	90.90%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1568	9	9.10	-0.10	59.00%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1563	9.5	9.42	+0.08	52.00%	3	6	8	9	11	12	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1562	10	8.48	+1.52	85.67%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1558	8	9.10	-1.10	38.33%	0	6	8	9	10	12	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1519	8	8.17	-0.17	57.52%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1503	9	8.76	+0.24	65.67%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1500	9	7.02	+1.98	90.60%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1496	8.5	7.17	+1.33	76.34%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1494	8	7.81	+0.19	64.32%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1481	10	7.57	+2.43	94.09%	1	4	6	8	9	11	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1480	6	9.17	-3.17	8.66%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1461	8	7.62	+0.38	68.67%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1461	7	7.43	-0.43	52.30%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1448	6	6.52	-0.52	50.85%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1448	7	5.82	+1.18	82.11%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1437	5	7.09	-2.09	21.34%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1393	5	7.24	-2.24	18.68%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1392	4	6.94	-2.94	10.68%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1382	5	6.22	-1.22	36.47%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1350	3	5.70	-2.70	12.31%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1316	1	5.14	-4.14	1.55%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-0-1 (1.9 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—
Houston Oilers	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	3-1 (1.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	0-3 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	2-1 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.34%	1.79%	0.89%	0.67%	0.45%	6.03%
7–13	0.89%	3.57%	6.03%	3.12%	3.12%	1.12%	0.67%	18.53%
14–20	1.34%	6.03%	8.93%	7.59%	2.68%	1.56%	0.22%	28.35%
21–27	1.79%	3.12%	7.59%	6.25%	3.35%	0.67%	0.45%	23.21%
28–34	0.89%	3.12%	2.68%	3.35%	2.68%	1.56%	0.22%	14.51%
35–41	0.67%	1.12%	1.56%	0.67%	1.56%	0.45%	0.67%	6.70%
42+	0.45%	0.67%	0.22%	0.45%	0.22%	0.67%	—	2.68%
Total	6.03%	18.53%	28.35%	23.21%	14.51%	6.70%	2.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.61	20.61	+0.00
SD	10.32	10.32	15.17
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	61	61	+54
Min	0	0	-54

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	31.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.44	27.31	-9.88
SD	8.00	8.70	11.92
CV	0.46	0.32	—
Max	30	45	+6
Min	3	13	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.56	19.81	+5.75
SD	9.67	12.19	16.83
CV	0.38	0.62	—
Max	47	41	+37
Min	10	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	23.56	-1.19
SD	12.04	12.49	16.61
CV	0.54	0.53	—
Max	47	42	+31
Min	0	0	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.25	17.81	+7.44
SD	16.36	8.42	21.51
CV	0.65	0.47	—
Max	61	29	+54
Min	7	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.88	15.88	+5.00
SD	13.74	7.69	16.01
CV	0.66	0.48	—
Max	51	31	+51
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.75	24.56	-11.81
SD	9.07	8.53	9.86
CV	0.71	0.35	—
Max	31	36	+10
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	14.12	+8.50
SD	10.38	7.13	12.77
CV	0.46	0.50	—
Max	41	28	+37
Min	7	0	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	—	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	22.75	-3.25
SD	9.68	10.75	14.54
CV	0.50	0.47	—
Max	33	47	+26
Min	3	7	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	22.25	+0.38
SD	9.50	8.25	8.83
CV	0.42	0.37	—
Max	40	41	+18
Min	3	10	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.81	25.75	-2.94
SD	12.01	15.28	22.10
CV	0.53	0.59	—
Max	41	61	+32
Min	0	0	-54

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.62	18.81	-0.19
SD	10.68	9.88	16.50
CV	0.57	0.53	—
Max	42	41	+29
Min	3	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.88	17.88	+2.00
SD	8.17	8.71	12.17
CV	0.41	0.49	—
Max	36	34	+34
Min	6	0	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	18.56	+1.12
SD	9.16	8.09	11.85
CV	0.47	0.44	—
Max	40	34	+26
Min	7	7	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.62	21.50	+5.12
SD	8.91	9.01	11.83
CV	0.33	0.42	—
Max	41	40	+24
Min	10	10	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.69	23.69	-3.00
SD	7.23	11.32	14.66
CV	0.35	0.48	—
Max	33	42	+21
Min	7	10	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.94	17.19	+4.75
SD	9.59	8.83	15.25
CV	0.44	0.51	—
Max	43	38	+31
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.56	24.44	-5.88
SD	8.06	6.16	11.13
CV	0.43	0.25	—
Max	33	37	+10
Min	3	13	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	18.81	+5.31
SD	9.46	8.42	13.91
CV	0.39	0.45	—
Max	41	35	+35
Min	10	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	15.75	+6.00
SD	7.14	9.40	11.87
CV	0.33	0.60	—
Max	35	34	+28
Min	10	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.81	25.69	-9.88
SD	11.22	9.67	14.20
CV	0.71	0.38	—
Max	40	38	+20
Min	0	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.38	17.12	+4.25
SD	9.82	11.48	11.85
CV	0.46	0.67	—
Max	42	38	+27
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.12	23.56	-7.44
SD	9.65	8.73	14.54
CV	0.60	0.37	—
Max	34	37	+14
Min	0	10	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.56	20.38	-3.81
SD	11.01	13.52	21.64
CV	0.66	0.66	—
Max	34	51	+20
Min	0	0	-51

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	31.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	50.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.62	18.12	-1.50
SD	5.81	8.88	9.17
CV	0.35	0.49	—
Max	27	40	+15
Min	6	6	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.62	15.81	+11.81
SD	8.52	8.18	11.14
CV	0.31	0.52	—
Max	45	28	+42
Min	12	0	-4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	56.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	20.44	-5.38
SD	8.09	9.64	13.43
CV	0.54	0.47	—
Max	24	41	+21
Min	0	3	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	26.19	-6.19
SD	9.95	11.95	11.39
CV	0.50	0.46	—
Max	42	56	+10
Min	3	10	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	19.25	+4.88
SD	10.16	11.99	12.53
CV	0.42	0.62	—
Max	38	42	+29
Min	3	0	-13

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	14	10.97	+3.03
2	New York Giants	12	9.42	+2.58
3	Green Bay Packers	10	7.57	+2.43
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7.02	+1.98
5	Philadelphia Eagles	11	9.04	+1.96

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dallas Cowboys	1	5.14	-4.14
2	Chicago Bears	6	9.17	-3.17
3	New York Jets	4	6.94	-2.94
4	Atlanta Falcons	3	5.70	-2.70
5	Phoenix Cardinals	5	7.24	-2.24

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	5	Nov 23 – Dec 24	1 in 140
2	Green Bay Packers	3	Nov 19 – Dec 3	1 in 28
3	Washington Redskins	5	Nov 26 – Dec 23	1 in 18
4	Seattle Seahawks	3	Dec 4 – Dec 17	1 in 17
5	Los Angeles Rams	5	Sep 10 – Oct 8	1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	6	Nov 19 – Dec 24	1 in 230
2	Dallas Cowboys	8	Sep 10 – Oct 29	1 in 42
3	New Orleans Saints	4	Sep 17 – Oct 8	1 in 24
4	Phoenix Cardinals	6	Nov 19 – Dec 24	1 in 22
5	New York Jets	5	Oct 1 – Oct 29	1 in 21

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.48%	29.79%	21.43%	11.30%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.13%	28.92%	25.52%	14.43%
Houston Oilers	24.67%	28.02%	28.09%	19.22%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.72%	13.27%	24.96%	55.05%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	41.86%	24.89%	16.24%	10.89%	6.12%
Indianapolis Colts	23.50%	24.32%	21.23%	17.61%	13.34%
Miami Dolphins	15.03%	19.87%	22.44%	21.86%	20.80%
New England Patriots	10.78%	15.82%	20.58%	24.00%	28.82%
New York Jets	8.83%	15.10%	19.51%	25.64%	30.92%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	51.54%	24.09%	12.98%	7.53%	3.86%
Los Angeles Raiders	18.08%	24.20%	22.68%	19.32%	15.72%
Seattle Seahawks	13.77%	20.95%	23.91%	22.45%	18.92%
Kansas City Chiefs	10.42%	18.30%	21.81%	25.21%	24.26%
San Diego Chargers	6.19%	12.46%	18.62%	25.49%	37.24%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	46.67%	30.14%	14.61%	6.29%	2.29%
Chicago Bears	35.96%	32.95%	18.57%	8.89%	3.63%
Green Bay Packers	11.28%	20.61%	30.90%	23.16%	14.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.82%	9.68%	19.89%	32.23%	34.38%
Detroit Lions	2.27%	6.62%	16.03%	29.43%	45.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	38.74%	27.84%	20.09%	10.37%	2.96%
Philadelphia Eagles	31.59%	29.18%	21.94%	13.21%	4.08%
Washington Redskins	20.63%	25.30%	26.54%	20.27%	7.26%
Phoenix Cardinals	8.08%	14.38%	23.31%	35.39%	18.84%
Dallas Cowboys	0.96%	3.30%	8.12%	20.76%	66.86%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	62.73%	25.27%	10.48%	1.52%
Los Angeles Rams	20.43%	36.46%	33.49%	9.62%
New Orleans Saints	16.01%	32.87%	39.47%	11.65%
Atlanta Falcons	0.83%	5.40%	16.56%	77.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Denver Broncos	17.44%	16.20%	13.70%	10.05%	8.21%	7.47%	5.95%	4.87%	4.47%	3.73%	3.12%	2.13%	1.54%	1.12%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	17.94%	14.13%	10.66%	10.93%	9.26%	7.69%	6.61%	6.25%	4.71%	3.86%	3.19%	2.63%	1.45%	0.69%
Buffalo Bills	13.94%	12.38%	12.09%	10.36%	9.13%	8.03%	6.83%	5.96%	5.13%	4.42%	4.11%	3.50%	2.49%	1.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	14.02%	12.00%	10.63%	10.32%	9.10%	7.91%	7.94%	6.51%	6.04%	4.98%	4.02%	3.58%	2.09%	0.86%
Houston Oilers	10.66%	9.52%	9.27%	9.78%	9.78%	8.40%	8.43%	7.35%	6.60%	6.24%	5.18%	4.26%	3.02%	1.51%
Indianapolis Colts	6.27%	7.69%	8.52%	7.72%	8.33%	8.36%	7.65%	8.05%	7.57%	7.21%	6.30%	5.86%	5.71%	4.76%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.52%	5.82%	6.22%	7.11%	7.79%	8.12%	7.83%	8.23%	7.69%	7.75%	7.45%	7.50%	6.97%	7.00%
Miami Dolphins	3.74%	4.75%	5.49%	6.38%	6.94%	7.33%	7.54%	8.52%	7.80%	8.40%	8.22%	8.17%	8.96%	7.76%
Seattle Seahawks	2.93%	4.04%	4.97%	5.58%	6.71%	7.53%	7.97%	8.21%	9.13%	8.48%	8.57%	8.39%	8.55%	8.94%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.13%	3.20%	4.57%	5.03%	5.54%	6.55%	6.77%	7.31%	8.87%	8.99%	9.47%	9.51%	10.54%	11.52%
New England Patriots	1.97%	3.29%	4.18%	4.94%	5.44%	5.95%	6.72%	7.49%	8.19%	8.67%	9.52%	9.99%	11.12%	12.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.97%	2.72%	3.35%	4.33%	5.03%	5.77%	7.14%	7.36%	8.63%	9.98%	11.12%	12.83%	10.93%	8.84%
New York Jets	1.57%	2.68%	3.70%	4.12%	5.01%	5.80%	7.06%	7.17%	7.95%	9.09%	9.50%	10.11%	12.58%	13.66%
San Diego Chargers	0.90%	1.58%	2.65%	3.35%	3.73%	5.09%	5.56%	6.72%	7.22%	8.20%	10.23%	11.54%	14.05%	19.18%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	35.67%	19.37%	13.51%	9.53%	6.85%	4.97%	3.76%	2.60%	1.85%	1.03%	0.57%	0.21%	0.05%	0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	12.99%	14.78%	13.98%	11.24%	11.00%	9.21%	7.33%	5.78%	4.80%	3.41%	2.50%	1.65%	0.99%	0.34%
New York Giants	10.48%	13.25%	12.26%	11.49%	10.39%	9.30%	8.69%	7.16%	5.74%	4.59%	3.15%	1.83%	1.04%	0.63%
Chicago Bears	8.62%	11.57%	11.60%	11.51%	11.37%	9.88%	8.30%	7.10%	6.53%	4.75%	3.86%	2.62%	1.41%	0.88%
Los Angeles Rams	9.40%	9.19%	9.50%	10.91%	10.85%	10.39%	9.46%	8.95%	8.18%	5.35%	3.68%	2.46%	1.22%	0.46%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.33%	10.11%	10.66%	10.80%	10.47%	10.46%	9.16%	7.86%	6.95%	5.41%	4.28%	2.98%	1.72%	0.81%
New Orleans Saints	6.78%	7.48%	8.27%	10.30%	10.16%	10.04%	10.40%	9.75%	9.42%	6.57%	4.43%	3.57%	1.92%	0.91%
Washington Redskins	4.46%	6.80%	8.37%	9.01%	9.19%	9.60%	9.21%	9.62%	8.75%	8.45%	6.70%	4.94%	3.18%	1.72%
Green Bay Packers	1.55%	3.38%	4.73%	5.52%	6.81%	8.01%	8.80%	10.52%	11.63%	10.16%	9.57%	7.68%	6.98%	4.66%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.97%	2.36%	3.62%	4.41%	5.10%	6.84%	8.05%	10.00%	9.65%	11.87%	11.92%	10.27%	8.54%	6.40%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.48%	0.69%	1.66%	1.92%	3.21%	3.84%	5.65%	6.81%	8.55%	10.33%	13.70%	13.99%	14.21%	14.96%
Detroit Lions	0.17%	0.53%	0.75%	1.29%	1.84%	3.01%	4.28%	5.74%	7.12%	10.24%	12.40%	14.02%	18.39%	20.22%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%	0.30%	0.71%	1.25%	1.67%	2.80%	4.28%	4.74%	6.64%	10.28%	13.81%	19.98%	17.66%	15.80%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.19%	0.38%	0.82%	1.09%	1.65%	2.63%	3.37%	4.19%	7.56%	9.43%	13.80%	22.69%	32.18%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	25.37%	13.96%	11.26%	8.02%	7.21%	5.52%	4.91%	3.97%	3.21%	2.53%	2.72%	2.10%	1.94%	1.33%	1.14%	1.21%	0.82%	0.84%	0.51%	0.39%	0.38%	0.28%	0.10%	0.15%	0.05%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	8.75%	7.13%	8.10%	7.00%	7.28%	6.39%	6.08%	4.87%	5.48%	4.31%	4.29%	4.29%	3.79%	3.18%	2.83%	2.83%	2.41%	1.88%	1.71%	1.68%	1.29%	1.31%	0.78%	0.86%	0.62%	0.39%	0.37%	0.10%
Denver Broncos	7.11%	8.37%	7.38%	8.14%	6.56%	6.92%	5.21%	5.49%	4.37%	4.47%	3.91%	3.92%	3.43%	3.11%	2.86%	2.49%	2.51%	2.39%	1.95%	1.94%	1.85%	1.27%	1.35%	0.95%	0.79%	0.54%	0.46%	0.26%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.79%	8.46%	6.88%	7.29%	6.02%	5.32%	5.56%	5.44%	4.63%	5.01%	4.13%	4.19%	3.70%	3.40%	3.53%	2.93%	2.62%	2.50%	2.11%	1.95%	1.79%	1.45%	1.41%	1.07%	0.67%	0.59%	0.41%	0.15%
New York Giants	6.71%	6.11%	7.09%	6.16%	6.51%	6.03%	6.06%	5.41%	5.29%	4.33%	4.70%	4.33%	4.09%	3.81%	3.48%	3.27%	2.76%	2.62%	2.33%	2.03%	1.45%	1.71%	0.99%	0.83%	0.59%	0.66%	0.34%	0.31%
Chicago Bears	5.37%	5.09%	6.94%	5.34%	6.18%	5.28%	6.09%	5.52%	5.43%	4.84%	4.77%	4.74%	3.83%	3.95%	3.51%	3.15%	2.96%	3.08%	2.34%	2.46%	1.82%	1.81%	1.46%	1.34%	0.95%	0.78%	0.61%	0.36%
Buffalo Bills	5.25%	6.81%	5.18%	6.10%	5.83%	6.26%	5.14%	5.46%	5.32%	4.69%	4.19%	4.20%	3.91%	4.02%	3.38%	2.87%	2.81%	2.70%	2.62%	2.31%	2.31%	1.92%	1.96%	1.54%	1.31%	0.90%	0.72%	0.29%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.56%	7.02%	6.00%	6.33%	5.27%	5.47%	5.20%	5.12%	4.81%	5.01%	4.40%	4.12%	4.08%	4.33%	3.50%	3.02%	3.41%	2.79%	2.76%	2.64%	2.38%	1.89%	1.82%	1.41%	1.19%	0.70%	0.47%	0.30%
Los Angeles Rams	5.74%	5.29%	5.44%	4.36%	5.61%	4.42%	6.12%	4.98%	5.14%	5.15%	5.28%	4.80%	4.21%	3.96%	3.71%	4.36%	3.73%	3.78%	2.50%	2.64%	1.94%	2.08%	1.42%	1.18%	0.69%	0.89%	0.31%	0.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.96%	5.11%	5.40%	5.27%	5.97%	4.75%	5.47%	5.46%	5.43%	4.73%	4.88%	4.70%	4.21%	4.08%	3.66%	4.09%	3.27%	3.21%	2.57%	2.47%	2.04%	2.12%	1.73%	1.54%	1.16%	0.83%	0.52%	0.37%
Houston Oilers	3.80%	4.77%	4.14%	5.70%	4.37%	5.15%	4.44%	5.27%	4.80%	5.20%	4.53%	4.68%	4.38%	4.11%	4.06%	3.56%	3.41%	3.62%	3.36%	3.06%	3.17%	2.17%	2.13%	1.99%	1.73%	1.06%	0.79%	0.55%
New Orleans Saints	4.11%	3.95%	4.54%	3.88%	4.40%	4.59%	5.04%	5.00%	4.78%	4.83%	4.77%	4.78%	4.85%	4.61%	4.89%	4.17%	3.98%	4.56%	3.27%	3.15%	2.22%	2.28%	1.98%	1.71%	1.36%	1.02%	0.77%	0.51%
Washington Redskins	2.62%	2.76%	3.72%	3.92%	4.32%	4.59%	4.59%	4.42%	4.66%	4.31%	4.73%	4.32%	4.23%	4.60%	4.33%	4.77%	3.98%	4.55%	3.42%	3.92%	3.18%	3.35%	2.66%	2.63%	1.83%	1.58%	1.19%	0.82%
Indianapolis Colts	2.04%	3.14%	3.37%	3.61%	3.74%	4.38%	3.81%	3.96%	4.48%	4.39%	4.02%	4.63%	4.16%	4.23%	4.06%	4.22%	4.17%	4.00%	4.01%	3.48%	3.86%	3.05%	3.32%	2.91%	2.93%	2.45%	2.31%	1.27%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.29%	2.39%	2.17%	3.16%	2.71%	3.21%	3.14%	3.84%	3.70%	4.39%	4.31%	3.83%	4.12%	4.61%	4.35%	3.90%	4.56%	3.88%	4.56%	3.53%	4.41%	3.76%	4.34%	3.67%	3.72%	3.16%	3.45%	1.84%
Miami Dolphins	0.92%	1.83%	1.95%	2.46%	2.34%	3.08%	2.71%	3.46%	3.63%	3.66%	3.59%	3.74%	4.19%	4.05%	4.82%	4.18%	4.43%	4.13%	4.79%	3.98%	4.84%	4.15%	4.68%	4.24%	4.53%	3.47%	3.66%	2.49%
Green Bay Packers	0.81%	1.03%	1.78%	1.89%	2.33%	2.65%	3.15%	3.24%	2.95%	3.19%	3.97%	4.18%	4.22%	4.43%	4.45%	5.39%	4.92%	5.84%	4.48%	5.01%	4.46%	4.88%	4.04%	3.89%	3.65%	3.61%	2.96%	2.60%
Seattle Seahawks	0.91%	1.36%	1.72%	1.96%	2.11%	2.58%	2.58%	2.92%	3.29%	3.69%	3.44%	3.98%	4.11%	4.26%	4.37%	4.34%	4.61%	4.40%	5.21%	4.38%	4.68%	4.27%	4.92%	3.99%	4.78%	4.17%	4.15%	2.82%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.40%	0.78%	1.31%	1.43%	1.93%	1.99%	2.28%	2.14%	2.85%	2.86%	3.25%	3.38%	4.06%	3.89%	4.45%	4.93%	4.36%	4.70%	4.99%	5.76%	5.25%	6.00%	5.11%	5.19%	4.55%	4.68%	4.01%	3.47%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.50%	1.01%	1.23%	1.58%	1.67%	2.25%	2.47%	2.61%	2.89%	2.96%	3.12%	3.35%	3.69%	3.84%	3.94%	3.91%	4.72%	4.76%	4.76%	4.59%	5.33%	5.04%	5.38%	4.66%	5.75%	4.74%	5.38%	3.87%
New England Patriots	0.48%	1.10%	1.18%	1.66%	1.80%	2.27%	2.18%	2.21%	2.72%	2.93%	3.01%	3.23%	3.62%	3.57%	3.74%	4.06%	4.61%	4.12%	4.76%	4.85%	5.27%	4.82%	5.31%	5.34%	5.74%	5.33%	5.80%	4.29%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.53%	0.88%	0.90%	1.49%	1.70%	1.75%	1.78%	2.42%	2.26%	2.89%	3.45%	2.72%	3.37%	3.74%	3.63%	4.25%	4.43%	4.60%	5.37%	5.53%	5.60%	5.34%	6.44%	5.92%	5.65%	5.23%	4.41%	3.72%
New York Jets	0.48%	0.73%	0.96%	1.32%	1.49%	1.88%	1.71%	2.11%	2.34%	3.02%	2.75%	3.20%	3.32%	3.73%	4.08%	4.06%	4.43%	3.77%	5.03%	4.85%	5.47%	4.82%	5.66%	5.25%	6.71%	5.69%	6.39%	4.75%
San Diego Chargers	0.14%	0.52%	0.51%	0.80%	0.94%	1.36%	1.60%	1.73%	1.70%	2.26%	2.33%	2.43%	2.95%	2.97%	3.41%	3.64%	3.87%	4.01%	4.63%	4.51%	5.52%	5.81%	6.11%	6.03%	6.76%	7.41%	9.15%	6.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.25%	0.19%	0.37%	0.43%	0.82%	0.90%	1.06%	1.09%	1.48%	1.81%	1.89%	2.04%	2.48%	2.84%	3.02%	3.23%	3.78%	4.49%	4.58%	5.17%	5.24%	6.79%	6.00%	7.30%	7.15%	7.93%	8.08%	9.59%
Detroit Lions	0.08%	0.12%	0.26%	0.28%	0.43%	0.44%	0.56%	0.79%	0.93%	1.00%	1.41%	1.65%	2.04%	2.27%	2.88%	2.74%	3.22%	3.32%	4.28%	5.14%	4.74%	6.33%	6.16%	7.55%	8.01%	9.93%	10.48%	12.96%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%	0.08%	0.14%	0.28%	0.27%	0.40%	0.67%	0.70%	0.85%	0.97%	1.42%	1.49%	1.95%	1.82%	2.31%	2.65%	3.01%	3.39%	3.83%	4.90%	5.57%	6.52%	7.22%	9.60%	8.43%	10.16%	9.50%	11.85%
Dallas Cowboys	0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.14%	0.19%	0.17%	0.39%	0.37%	0.58%	0.57%	0.74%	0.98%	1.07%	1.26%	1.61%	1.78%	2.21%	2.07%	3.27%	3.68%	3.94%	4.78%	5.52%	7.26%	8.70%	12.05%	13.29%	23.28%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	17.94%	12.10%	7.44%	14.93%	10.00%	37.59%
Denver Broncos	17.44%	17.53%	16.57%	7.32%	7.45%	33.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	14.02%	10.39%	6.72%	13.96%	10.47%	44.44%
Buffalo Bills	13.94%	13.76%	14.16%	8.25%	8.25%	41.64%
Houston Oilers	10.66%	7.98%	6.03%	13.06%	10.46%	51.81%
Indianapolis Colts	6.27%	8.31%	8.92%	7.08%	8.04%	61.38%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.52%	6.09%	7.47%	6.18%	7.39%	68.35%
Miami Dolphins	3.74%	4.97%	6.32%	5.23%	7.13%	72.61%
Seattle Seahawks	2.93%	4.39%	6.45%	4.51%	6.18%	75.54%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.13%	3.42%	4.87%	4.45%	5.70%	79.43%
New England Patriots	1.97%	3.83%	4.98%	4.01%	5.23%	79.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.97%	2.40%	2.35%	4.75%	5.42%	83.11%
New York Jets	1.57%	2.96%	4.30%	3.71%	4.64%	82.82%
San Diego Chargers	0.90%	1.87%	3.42%	2.56%	3.64%	87.61%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	35.67%	17.52%	9.54%	14.01%	8.05%	15.21%
Minnesota Vikings	12.99%	16.17%	17.51%	8.20%	9.82%	35.31%
New York Giants	10.48%	14.45%	13.81%	9.37%	9.68%	42.21%
Los Angeles Rams	9.40%	6.52%	4.51%	16.46%	12.34%	50.77%
Chicago Bears	8.62%	12.75%	14.59%	8.82%	10.31%	44.91%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.33%	11.29%	11.97%	9.12%	9.88%	49.41%
New Orleans Saints	6.78%	5.38%	3.85%	14.35%	11.94%	57.70%
Washington Redskins	4.46%	7.43%	8.74%	7.75%	9.30%	62.32%
Green Bay Packers	1.55%	3.65%	6.08%	4.30%	6.51%	77.91%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.97%	2.70%	4.41%	3.45%	4.96%	83.51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.48%	0.93%	2.41%	1.49%	2.75%	91.94%
Detroit Lions	0.17%	0.65%	1.45%	0.81%	1.69%	95.23%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%	0.32%	0.43%	1.27%	1.79%	96.11%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.24%	0.70%	0.60%	0.98%	97.46%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	78.21%	78.21%	55.05%	36.51%	25.58%
Denver Broncos	60.30%	60.30%	35.76%	20.78%	9.74%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	52.08%	52.08%	30.09%	16.47%	7.02%
New York Giants	49.09%	49.09%	24.81%	12.13%	6.93%
Buffalo Bills	51.69%	51.69%	28.30%	15.39%	6.85%
Minnesota Vikings	55.53%	55.53%	26.78%	12.54%	6.84%
Cincinnati Bengals	45.24%	45.24%	25.24%	13.09%	5.39%
Los Angeles Rams	36.83%	36.83%	20.24%	9.28%	5.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	41.21%	41.21%	19.44%	9.06%	4.95%
New Orleans Saints	30.58%	30.58%	16.61%	7.66%	4.22%
Houston Oilers	36.32%	36.32%	17.04%	7.45%	2.79%
Washington Redskins	29.19%	29.19%	12.40%	5.27%	2.77%
Indianapolis Colts	30.92%	30.92%	15.03%	7.24%	2.51%
Chicago Bears	43.00%	43.00%	15.04%	4.92%	2.09%
Los Angeles Raiders	24.43%	24.43%	10.63%	4.56%	1.45%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.95%	14.95%	6.33%	2.84%	0.93%
Seattle Seahawks	18.08%	18.08%	7.12%	2.64%	0.88%
Miami Dolphins	19.66%	19.66%	7.63%	2.96%	0.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.75%	11.75%	5.39%	2.31%	0.81%
Green Bay Packers	15.04%	15.04%	4.69%	1.48%	0.64%
New England Patriots	14.19%	14.19%	4.92%	1.90%	0.61%
New York Jets	11.56%	11.56%	3.41%	1.14%	0.32%
San Diego Chargers	8.83%	8.83%	3.11%	1.23%	0.31%
Phoenix Cardinals	10.42%	10.42%	2.40%	0.51%	0.14%
Detroit Lions	3.09%	3.09%	0.75%	0.25%	0.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.74%	4.74%	0.96%	0.19%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	1.58%	1.36%	0.32%	0.08%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	3.06%	1.71%	0.51%	0.12%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		1.46%	1.39%	0.80%	1.61%	0.37%	0.74%	0.87%	0.38%	0.25%	0.20%	0.73%	0.32%	0.71%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.23%		1.01%	1.02%	1.42%	1.23%	0.96%	1.41%	1.42%	0.92%	1.23%	0.56%	0.65%	1.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.31%	1.22%		1.18%	1.37%	1.37%	1.03%	1.23%	1.42%	1.25%	0.88%	0.51%	0.75%	1.08%
Denver Broncos	0.63%	1.40%	1.32%		1.36%	0.86%	0.28%	0.27%	0.71%	0.51%	0.52%	0.45%	0.15%	0.30%
Houston Oilers	1.03%	1.02%	0.78%	0.90%		1.33%	0.64%	1.13%	1.17%	0.80%	0.92%	0.45%	0.48%	1.00%
Indianapolis Colts	0.21%	1.01%	1.19%	0.63%	0.94%		0.49%	0.54%	0.43%	0.26%	0.21%	0.64%	0.25%	0.62%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.45%	0.57%	0.66%	0.15%	0.67%	0.48%		0.14%	0.32%	0.35%	0.32%	0.23%	0.07%	0.12%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.50%	0.91%	0.86%	0.10%	0.91%	0.64%	0.17%		0.64%	0.49%	0.23%	0.46%	0.18%	0.26%
Miami Dolphins	0.19%	0.62%	0.64%	0.36%	0.78%	0.19%	0.29%	0.35%		0.22%	0.14%	0.35%	0.16%	0.34%
New England Patriots	0.06%	0.58%	0.55%	0.20%	0.56%	0.12%	0.24%	0.21%	0.11%		0.15%	0.24%	0.18%	0.21%
New York Jets	0.07%	0.31%	0.51%	0.15%	0.44%	0.10%	0.24%	0.28%	0.05%	0.06%		0.18%	0.11%	0.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.42%	0.42%	0.43%	0.36%	0.55%	0.48%	0.31%	0.48%	0.47%	0.37%	0.24%		0.15%	0.35%
San Diego Chargers	0.22%	0.33%	0.30%	0.08%	0.51%	0.18%	0.08%	0.10%	0.27%	0.17%	0.17%	0.12%		0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	0.35%	0.47%	0.69%	0.08%	0.75%	0.35%	0.15%	0.21%	0.34%	0.18%	0.41%	0.22%	0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.15%	0.03%	0.03%	0.07%	0.04%	0.06%	0.09%	0.13%	0.08%	0.07%	0.03%	0.02%	0.08%
Chicago Bears	0.31%		0.15%	0.04%	0.37%	1.28%	0.19%	1.14%	0.70%	0.80%	0.47%	0.79%	0.13%	0.67%
Dallas Cowboys		0.06%		0.03%	0.03%	0.09%	0.04%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	0.04%		0.01%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%	0.18%	0.03%	0.14%	0.08%	0.10%	0.06%	0.10%		0.04%
Green Bay Packers	0.21%	0.25%	0.02%	0.01%		0.58%	0.15%	0.59%	0.41%	0.38%	0.35%	0.30%	0.09%	0.42%
Los Angeles Rams	0.22%	2.54%	0.25%	0.41%	1.34%		1.79%	1.65%	1.68%	2.11%	1.22%	0.58%	0.62%	1.99%
Minnesota Vikings	0.28%	0.16%	0.18%	0.02%	0.14%	1.69%		1.67%	0.97%	1.14%	0.62%	1.01%	0.14%	0.84%
New Orleans Saints	0.12%	2.40%	0.18%	0.25%	1.19%	1.50%	1.58%		1.74%	1.85%	1.09%	0.63%	0.55%	1.49%
New York Giants	0.24%	1.55%	0.05%	0.22%	0.81%	2.01%	1.13%	1.83%		0.39%	0.33%	1.08%	0.36%	0.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.20%	1.24%	0.06%	0.18%	0.78%	1.82%	1.05%	1.48%	0.41%		0.34%	0.98%	0.47%	0.61%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.13%	0.32%	0.02%	0.07%	0.14%	0.41%	0.25%	0.39%	0.12%	0.08%		0.23%	0.10%	0.08%
San Francisco 49ers	0.15%	2.23%	0.14%	0.27%	1.35%	0.95%	1.96%	1.28%	1.90%	1.91%	1.10%		0.46%	1.78%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.06%	0.17%	0.02%	0.10%	0.11%	0.08%	0.11%	0.02%		0.13%
Washington Redskins	0.27%	1.15%	0.04%	0.13%	0.73%	1.68%	0.91%	1.31%	0.42%	0.45%	0.27%	0.83%	0.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		4.39%	5.27%	4.37%	5.10%		1.62%	2.91%				1.48%	1.14%	2.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.29%			4.95%		3.18%	1.60%	2.39%	2.03%	1.93%	1.59%		1.07%	2.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	5.65%			6.18%		3.21%	2.02%	3.36%	2.49%	2.01%	1.70%		1.31%	2.16%
Denver Broncos	5.44%	5.98%	6.61%		5.19%	3.46%			2.93%	2.27%	1.90%	1.98%
Houston Oilers	3.08%			3.04%		2.24%	0.96%	1.57%	1.57%	1.20%	1.15%		0.85%	1.38%
Indianapolis Colts		2.64%	2.52%	2.37%	2.43%		0.96%	1.55%				0.71%	0.63%	1.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.87%	1.12%	1.09%		0.95%	0.77%			0.48%	0.38%	0.32%	0.35%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.71%	1.49%	1.96%		1.54%	1.11%			1.03%	0.54%	0.65%	0.60%
Miami Dolphins		1.37%	1.28%	1.37%	1.15%		0.44%	0.72%				0.34%	0.20%	0.76%
New England Patriots		0.79%	0.85%	0.75%	0.85%		0.42%	0.43%				0.29%	0.15%	0.39%
New York Jets		0.57%	0.55%	0.56%	0.49%		0.23%	0.37%				0.19%	0.15%	0.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.00%			0.95%		0.73%	0.37%	0.50%	0.53%	0.28%	0.29%		0.22%	0.52%
San Diego Chargers	0.45%	0.49%	0.63%		0.47%	0.33%			0.31%	0.17%	0.13%	0.13%
Seattle Seahawks	0.90%	1.16%	1.23%		1.11%	0.86%			0.66%	0.49%	0.42%	0.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.08%		0.01%	0.03%		0.10%		0.12%	0.06%	0.03%		0.02%	0.06%
Chicago Bears	0.27%		0.15%			2.23%		1.90%	2.46%	2.42%	1.12%	2.68%		1.81%
Dallas Cowboys	0.01%	0.07%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.11%	0.03%				0.06%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.01%					0.11%		0.04%	0.15%	0.10%	0.03%	0.21%		0.10%
Green Bay Packers	0.05%		0.01%			0.63%		0.67%	0.76%	0.68%	0.28%	0.93%		0.68%
Los Angeles Rams		3.82%	0.12%	0.34%	1.31%		4.02%		3.31%	3.36%	1.05%		0.50%	2.41%
Minnesota Vikings	0.23%		0.21%			4.13%		3.82%	4.06%	4.10%	1.49%	5.75%		2.99%
New Orleans Saints		3.38%	0.09%	0.16%	0.93%		3.51%		3.18%	2.36%	0.88%		0.28%	1.84%
New York Giants	0.32%	4.50%		0.40%	1.79%	4.03%	4.53%	3.14%				5.58%	0.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.19%	3.74%		0.29%	1.24%	3.09%	3.39%	2.46%				4.39%	0.65%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.01%	0.61%		0.02%	0.18%	0.29%	0.37%	0.39%				0.43%	0.10%
San Francisco 49ers		9.50%	0.45%	0.98%	3.80%		10.46%		10.08%	8.53%	3.07%		1.39%	6.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%		0.01%			0.14%		0.09%	0.16%	0.16%	0.07%	0.19%		0.11%
Washington Redskins	0.08%	2.26%		0.13%	1.06%	1.93%	2.26%	1.43%				2.94%	0.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		2.12%	2.60%	3.14%	1.65%	1.26%	0.63%	1.08%	0.63%	0.35%	0.29%	0.51%	0.42%	0.71%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.83%		2.53%	2.55%	1.39%	0.94%	0.55%	0.65%	0.74%	0.37%	0.34%	0.30%	0.25%	0.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.57%	2.56%		3.10%	1.90%	1.35%	0.52%	1.02%	0.75%	0.56%	0.40%	0.51%	0.29%	0.94%
Denver Broncos	3.77%	3.05%	3.35%		2.27%	2.00%	0.62%	1.36%	1.03%	0.95%	0.51%	0.75%	0.39%	0.73%
Houston Oilers	0.96%	1.15%	1.16%	1.38%		0.58%	0.25%	0.43%	0.43%	0.16%	0.18%	0.21%	0.13%	0.43%
Indianapolis Colts	1.04%	0.72%	1.13%	1.36%	0.62%		0.33%	0.63%	0.26%	0.14%	0.24%	0.27%	0.13%	0.37%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.42%	0.39%	0.46%	0.50%	0.20%	0.20%		0.17%	0.11%	0.08%	0.02%	0.10%	0.07%	0.12%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.74%	0.54%	0.69%	0.71%	0.46%	0.48%	0.15%		0.26%	0.14%	0.09%	0.14%	0.05%	0.11%
Miami Dolphins	0.46%	0.38%	0.29%	0.53%	0.27%	0.24%	0.11%	0.21%		0.05%	0.05%	0.12%	0.07%	0.18%
New England Patriots	0.20%	0.27%	0.35%	0.26%	0.13%	0.12%	0.10%	0.16%	0.05%		0.06%	0.09%	0.03%	0.08%
New York Jets	0.09%	0.18%	0.11%	0.34%	0.12%	0.08%	0.06%	0.07%	0.02%			0.01%		0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.20%	0.36%	0.33%	0.50%	0.21%	0.21%	0.07%	0.15%	0.11%	0.03%	0.03%		0.04%	0.07%
San Diego Chargers	0.17%	0.16%	0.18%	0.17%	0.13%	0.11%	0.01%	0.05%	0.12%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%		0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	0.46%	0.27%	0.44%	0.44%	0.24%	0.22%	0.09%	0.09%	0.16%	0.14%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.02%					0.02%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.02%		0.01%	0.04%	0.14%	0.50%	0.68%	0.41%	0.73%	0.51%	0.14%	1.33%	0.06%	0.35%
Dallas Cowboys		0.02%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.02%	0.01%			0.01%		0.03%	0.04%	0.04%		0.06%		0.04%
Green Bay Packers		0.13%		0.01%		0.14%	0.12%	0.09%	0.23%	0.15%	0.05%	0.41%		0.15%
Los Angeles Rams	0.04%	0.92%	0.03%	0.04%	0.31%		1.28%	0.74%	1.06%	0.90%	0.14%	3.10%	0.11%	0.61%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	1.28%	0.01%	0.06%	0.35%	1.14%		1.09%	2.02%	1.47%	0.27%	3.60%	0.06%	1.15%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.75%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.69%	1.00%		0.90%	0.64%	0.16%	2.63%	0.06%	0.57%
New York Giants	0.03%	1.22%	0.04%	0.05%	0.51%	1.34%	1.88%	1.07%		1.34%	0.18%	3.56%	0.06%	0.85%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.86%	0.03%	0.04%	0.36%	1.01%	1.46%	0.71%	1.34%		0.15%	2.27%	0.11%	0.69%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.01%	0.05%			0.02%	0.08%	0.09%	0.05%	0.03%	0.03%		0.11%	0.01%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	0.18%	4.27%	0.10%	0.16%	1.15%	5.50%	6.76%	4.43%	5.65%	4.70%	0.70%		0.25%	2.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers					0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.03%	0.58%		0.03%	0.17%	0.52%	0.92%	0.31%	0.64%	0.57%	0.04%	1.41%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons											0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%		0.49%			0.02%		0.03%	0.13%					0.68%		0.88%		0.69%	0.79%		0.57%	0.07%			1.99%			0.50%
Chicago Bears		0.35%		0.25%	0.27%		0.47%			0.13%	0.15%	0.05%	0.09%		0.04%		0.08%			0.02%			0.04%	0.06%		0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%		0.50%			0.01%		0.01%	0.06%					0.54%		0.67%		0.51%	0.72%		0.66%	0.06%			1.40%		0.01%	0.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.04%		0.38%			0.01%		0.08%	0.15%					0.72%		1.08%		0.68%	0.78%		0.70%	0.01%			1.96%		0.03%	0.40%
Dallas Cowboys										0.01%							0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.03%		0.63%			0.02%		0.02%	0.18%					1.02%		1.28%		0.74%	1.28%		1.06%	0.10%			2.75%		0.08%	0.55%
Detroit Lions				0.01%	0.01%		0.03%				0.01%									0.02%
Green Bay Packers		0.10%		0.09%	0.09%		0.09%			0.07%	0.06%	0.03%	0.04%		0.02%		0.01%			0.01%			0.01%			0.02%
Houston Oilers	0.01%		0.26%						0.12%					0.27%		0.39%		0.12%	0.34%		0.27%	0.02%			0.77%			0.22%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%		0.14%					0.01%	0.05%					0.23%		0.41%		0.21%	0.38%		0.36%	0.02%			0.53%			0.16%
Kansas City Chiefs			0.04%					0.01%	0.07%					0.10%		0.13%		0.07%	0.16%		0.14%				0.15%			0.06%
Los Angeles Raiders			0.08%					0.01%	0.02%					0.19%		0.18%		0.12%	0.24%		0.15%	0.01%			0.38%			0.07%
Los Angeles Rams		0.74%		0.62%	0.92%		1.00%			0.28%	0.42%	0.14%	0.32%		0.24%		0.09%			0.09%			0.14%	0.07%		0.15%
Miami Dolphins			0.06%						0.01%					0.08%		0.16%		0.04%	0.15%		0.03%	0.04%			0.20%			0.07%
Minnesota Vikings		0.92%		0.88%	1.10%		1.20%			0.63%	0.63%	0.26%	0.31%		0.16%		0.14%			0.08%			0.13%	0.12%		0.28%
New England Patriots			0.08%						0.02%					0.06%		0.12%		0.05%	0.10%		0.03%	0.01%			0.08%			0.06%
New Orleans Saints		0.59%		0.41%	0.66%		0.72%			0.51%	0.31%	0.15%	0.29%		0.14%		0.10%			0.02%			0.12%	0.08%		0.12%
New York Giants		0.96%		0.86%	1.19%		1.18%			0.53%	0.56%	0.27%	0.30%		0.28%		0.15%			0.11%			0.18%	0.06%		0.30%
New York Jets			0.01%						0.01%					0.01%		0.07%		0.02%	0.04%		0.01%				0.12%			0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.67%		0.55%	0.75%		0.94%			0.40%	0.46%	0.13%	0.29%		0.20%		0.10%			0.08%			0.21%	0.07%		0.10%
Phoenix Cardinals		0.02%		0.04%			0.04%			0.02%					0.01%								0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers			0.06%											0.07%		0.12%		0.11%	0.10%		0.07%	0.01%			0.22%		0.01%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers			0.02%						0.01%					0.02%		0.11%		0.03%	0.04%		0.01%				0.06%			0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		3.65%		3.73%	4.07%		4.85%			1.85%	1.95%	0.80%	1.28%		0.90%		0.50%			0.34%			0.60%	0.39%		0.67%
Seattle Seahawks			0.08%						0.01%					0.07%		0.10%		0.05%	0.08%		0.05%	0.02%			0.32%			0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.01%					0.01%			0.01%	0.01%		0.01%										0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.53%		0.26%	0.39%		0.51%			0.22%	0.16%	0.08%	0.18%		0.13%		0.11%			0.05%			0.05%	0.07%		0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	70.47%	48.90%	31.64%	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	66.52%	39.87%	16.57%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New York Giants	100.00%	57.38%	22.54%	11.83%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	55.72%	26.57%	11.05%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	44.28%	21.20%	8.82%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	36.10%	14.88%	8.03%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	45.33%	19.66%	6.89%	3.81%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	54.67%	16.39%	6.79%	3.65%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	57.61%	19.63%	7.15%	2.55%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	42.39%	13.85%	5.21%	2.05%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Oilers		57.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers	42.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles Rams		45.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	54.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		44.28%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	55.72%
Denver Broncos				37.98%	28.54%
Houston Oilers			19.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers			13.85%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams			19.66%
Minnesota Vikings			22.96%		13.14%
New York Giants	25.67%	31.71%
Philadelphia Eagles					16.39%
San Francisco 49ers		32.19%		38.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills			11.70%	5.63%	3.87%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			14.95%	6.85%	4.77%
Denver Broncos	17.70%	22.17%
Houston Oilers	3.13%	4.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.25%	2.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams		2.56%			4.33%
Minnesota Vikings	2.92%		3.17%	3.79%	5.00%
New York Giants		4.49%		5.81%	12.24%
Philadelphia Eagles		2.93%	3.86%
San Francisco 49ers	9.85%	11.24%	27.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills					0.56%	1.46%	2.27%	0.72%		3.81%
Cleveland Browns (1st)					0.88%	1.63%	3.13%	0.76%		4.65%
Denver Broncos					1.26%	2.81%	4.18%	1.27%		7.05%
Houston Oilers					0.27%	0.49%	0.62%	0.21%		0.96%
Los Angeles Rams	0.80%	0.98%	1.46%	0.29%					0.28%
Minnesota Vikings	1.92%	2.00%	3.02%	0.67%					0.42%
New York Giants	2.29%	3.22%	4.71%	0.92%					0.69%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.93%	0.87%	1.47%	0.22%					0.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers					0.11%	0.46%	0.51%	0.18%		0.79%
San Francisco 49ers	6.44%	8.45%	12.64%	2.50%					1.61%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 31.64% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.32%

Win Prob

70.02%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

56.87%

Win Prob

69.44%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

39.95%

Win Prob

64.20%

Denver Broncos 16.57% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

57.10%

Win Prob

65.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

55.61%

Win Prob

59.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.55%

Win Prob

35.80%

New York Giants 11.83% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.26%

Win Prob

58.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

54.30%

Win Prob

30.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

39.81%

Win Prob

52.98%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 11.05% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

56.27%

Win Prob

40.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.08%

Win Prob

35.50%

Buffalo Bills 8.82% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

55.19%

Win Prob

39.80%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.20%

Win Prob

37.17%

Minnesota Vikings 8.03% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

63.60%

Win Prob

42.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

33.60%

Win Prob

30.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

37.61%

Win Prob

51.80%

Los Angeles Rams 3.81% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

62.84%

Win Prob

30.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.32%

Win Prob

53.68%

Philadelphia Eagles 3.65% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

56.85%

Win Prob

39.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

40.27%

Win Prob

53.65%

Houston Oilers 2.55% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.61%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

56.22%

Win Prob

36.98%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

37.65%

Win Prob

27.75%

Pittsburgh Steelers 2.05% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.39%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.67%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

56.81%

Win Prob

38.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

38.54%

Win Prob

32.92%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1989-09-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-31	1443.02	1534.57	44.01%	55.47%	-12.45	0-1
1989-09-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-21	1430.57	1430.59	57.10%	42.38%	+9.29	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 9-13	1439.86	1495.47	34.81%	64.67%	-6.23	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-23	1433.63	1449.90	40.11%	59.37%	-5.08	1-3
1989-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-26	1428.55	1569.55	24.62%	74.86%	-7.64	1-4
1989-10-15	New England Patriots	W 16-15	1420.91	1471.74	49.84%	49.63%	+4.43	2-4
1989-10-22	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 20-34	1425.34	1440.69	40.24%	59.24%	-13.46	2-5
1989-10-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1411.88	1546.21	25.34%	74.14%	-6.01	2-6
1989-11-05	Buffalo Bills	W 30-28	1405.87	1562.94	35.03%	64.45%	+8.14	3-6
1989-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-45	1414.01	1654.51	15.55%	83.92%	-9.04	3-7
1989-11-19	New Orleans Saints	L 17-26	1404.97	1548.93	36.76%	62.71%	-9.87	3-8
1989-11-26	@ New York Jets	L 7-27	1395.10	1415.69	39.51%	59.96%	-15.81	3-9
1989-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1379.29	1658.46	21.07%	78.41%	-6.81	3-10
1989-12-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-43	1372.48	1578.43	18.35%	81.13%	-8.39	3-11
1989-12-17	Washington Redskins	L 30-31	1364.09	1535.28	33.20%	66.28%	-2.97	3-12
1989-12-24	Detroit Lions	L 24-31	1361.12	1436.82	46.27%	53.21%	-10.95	3-13
1989-09-10	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1534.38	1473.29	51.11%	48.37%	+7.49	1-0
1989-09-18	Denver Broncos	L 14-28	1541.87	1518.29	60.37%	39.10%	-20.18	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 47-41	1521.69	1522.17	42.31%	57.17%	+12.51	2-1
1989-10-01	New England Patriots	W 31-10	1534.20	1470.73	65.69%	33.79%	+13.86	3-1
1989-10-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-37	1548.06	1515.19	47.05%	52.43%	-20.17	3-2
1989-10-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1527.89	1577.19	50.06%	49.41%	+7.65	4-2
1989-10-22	New York Jets	W 34-3	1535.54	1460.95	67.10%	32.37%	+16.14	5-2
1989-10-29	Miami Dolphins	W 31-17	1551.68	1486.95	65.85%	33.63%	+11.26	6-2
1989-11-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1562.94	1405.87	64.45%	35.03%	-8.14	6-3
1989-11-12	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-7	1554.80	1520.36	61.85%	37.62%	+16.15	7-3
1989-11-19	@ New England Patriots	L 24-33	1570.95	1455.60	58.81%	40.67%	-15.76	7-4
1989-11-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-7	1555.19	1546.52	58.31%	41.16%	+15.18	8-4
1989-12-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1570.37	1452.84	59.11%	40.37%	-5.28	8-5
1989-12-10	New Orleans Saints	L 19-22	1565.09	1534.46	61.34%	38.14%	-9.48	8-6
1989-12-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-21	1555.61	1672.13	27.33%	72.15%	-8.12	8-7
1989-12-23	@ New York Jets	W 37-0	1547.49	1412.20	61.55%	37.93%	+20.64	9-7
1989-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-14	1538.61	1543.30	56.44%	43.04%	+6.67	1-0
1989-09-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-7	1545.28	1577.38	52.53%	46.94%	+23.36	2-0
1989-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 47-27	1568.64	1422.13	63.05%	36.42%	+14.58	3-0
1989-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-13	1583.22	1537.36	63.38%	36.09%	+12.09	4-0
1989-10-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 35-42	1595.31	1444.97	63.56%	35.91%	-15.02	4-1
1989-10-15	Houston Oilers	L 28-33	1580.29	1513.74	66.08%	33.39%	-13.19	4-2
1989-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1567.10	1537.49	46.58%	52.89%	-18.63	4-3
1989-10-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-10	1548.47	1544.75	57.62%	41.86%	+11.84	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-14	1560.31	1456.84	57.15%	42.33%	-5.10	5-4
1989-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-0	1555.21	1450.88	57.27%	42.21%	+16.88	6-4
1989-11-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-32	1572.09	1408.93	77.15%	22.33%	-6.89	6-5
1989-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1565.20	1487.58	53.48%	46.00%	-23.41	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-27	1541.79	1566.89	38.89%	60.58%	-11.54	6-7
1989-12-10	Detroit Lions	L 17-27	1530.25	1396.92	74.03%	25.45%	-20.90	6-8
1989-12-17	Green Bay Packers	L 28-40	1509.35	1450.28	65.12%	34.36%	-20.14	6-9
1989-12-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-26	1489.21	1680.25	19.67%	79.81%	-8.99	6-10
1989-09-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1543.30	1538.61	43.04%	56.44%	-6.66	0-1
1989-09-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-10	1536.64	1438.52	70.00%	29.48%	+14.70	1-1
1989-09-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-14	1551.34	1570.88	54.33%	45.15%	+10.68	2-1
1989-10-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1562.02	1436.95	60.15%	39.33%	+7.03	3-1
1989-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-16	1569.05	1464.19	57.34%	42.13%	+11.92	4-1
1989-10-15	Miami Dolphins	L 13-20	1580.97	1463.81	72.22%	27.26%	-17.06	4-2
1989-10-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 12-23	1563.91	1523.36	62.67%	36.80%	-18.56	4-3
1989-10-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 56-23	1545.35	1447.74	69.93%	29.54%	+15.20	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-28	1560.55	1497.15	51.44%	48.04%	-21.07	5-4
1989-11-13	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-26	1539.48	1535.21	42.98%	56.50%	-5.43	5-5
1989-11-19	Detroit Lions	W 42-7	1534.05	1382.64	75.95%	23.53%	+12.47	6-5
1989-11-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1546.52	1555.19	41.16%	58.31%	-15.18	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-0	1531.34	1579.46	35.79%	63.68%	+26.06	7-6
1989-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1557.40	1458.12	70.13%	29.34%	-16.57	7-7
1989-12-17	Houston Oilers	W 61-7	1540.83	1539.83	57.24%	42.24%	+27.76	8-7
1989-12-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-29	1568.59	1576.17	41.32%	58.16%	-10.45	8-8
1989-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 51-0	1528.30	1469.61	50.76%	48.71%	+31.09	1-0
1989-09-17	New York Jets	W 38-24	1559.39	1499.77	65.19%	34.29%	+11.49	2-0
1989-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1570.88	1551.34	45.15%	54.33%	-10.68	2-1
1989-10-01	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1560.20	1548.37	58.75%	40.72%	+6.31	3-1
1989-10-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1566.51	1454.79	58.30%	41.17%	-9.02	3-2
1989-10-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1557.49	1452.27	70.84%	28.64%	-20.00	3-3
1989-10-23	Chicago Bears	W 27-7	1537.49	1567.10	52.89%	46.58%	+18.62	4-3
1989-10-29	Houston Oilers	W 28-17	1556.11	1543.18	58.91%	40.57%	+12.04	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-31	1568.15	1432.54	61.59%	37.89%	+11.24	6-3
1989-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-7	1579.39	1486.74	55.62%	43.86%	+12.41	7-3
1989-11-19	Kansas City Chiefs	T 10-10	1591.80	1442.01	75.78%	23.69%	-1.17	7-3
1989-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1590.63	1370.17	72.24%	27.23%	-11.17	7-4
1989-12-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-21	1579.46	1531.34	63.68%	35.79%	-26.06	7-5
1989-12-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-23	1553.40	1510.86	48.44%	51.03%	-10.60	7-6
1989-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-17	1542.80	1586.82	50.82%	48.65%	+10.65	8-6
1989-12-23	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-20	1553.45	1512.07	48.27%	51.20%	+9.15	9-6
1989-09-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-28	1445.32	1530.11	31.10%	68.37%	-14.73	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1430.59	1430.57	42.38%	57.10%	-9.29	0-2
1989-09-24	Washington Redskins	L 7-30	1421.30	1483.43	48.22%	51.26%	-20.67	0-3
1989-10-01	New York Giants	L 13-30	1400.63	1554.37	35.46%	64.01%	-13.09	0-4
1989-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-31	1387.54	1454.98	33.28%	66.20%	-12.64	0-5
1989-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-31	1374.90	1615.21	25.03%	74.45%	-9.24	0-6
1989-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-36	1365.66	1433.87	33.18%	66.30%	-8.41	0-7
1989-10-29	Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-19	1357.25	1454.16	43.25%	56.22%	-11.60	0-8
1989-11-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-3	1345.65	1501.47	23.07%	76.40%	+21.57	1-8
1989-11-12	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 20-24	1367.22	1456.37	30.57%	68.91%	-5.47	1-9
1989-11-19	Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1361.75	1499.46	37.60%	61.87%	-5.83	1-10
1989-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-27	1355.92	1540.81	31.48%	68.00%	-14.64	1-11
1989-12-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 31-35	1341.28	1571.40	26.15%	73.33%	-4.69	1-12
1989-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-20	1336.59	1569.61	16.13%	83.35%	-4.57	1-13
1989-12-16	@ New York Giants	L 0-15	1332.02	1575.93	15.30%	84.18%	-5.32	1-14
1989-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1326.70	1470.42	36.80%	62.68%	-10.41	1-15
1989-09-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-20	1506.46	1454.86	64.14%	35.34%	+11.83	1-0
1989-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-14	1518.29	1541.87	39.10%	60.37%	+20.17	2-0
1989-09-24	Los Angeles Raiders	W 31-21	1538.46	1484.22	64.49%	34.99%	+9.91	3-0
1989-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-16	1548.37	1560.20	40.72%	58.75%	-6.31	3-1
1989-10-08	San Diego Chargers	W 16-10	1542.06	1460.21	68.01%	31.47%	+6.90	4-1
1989-10-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 14-3	1548.96	1535.37	59.00%	40.48%	+12.01	5-1
1989-10-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-21	1560.97	1503.67	50.56%	48.91%	+7.57	6-1
1989-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1568.54	1551.02	59.54%	39.94%	-10.63	6-2
1989-11-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-7	1557.91	1464.89	69.38%	30.10%	+14.00	7-2
1989-11-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1571.91	1448.13	59.97%	39.50%	+6.12	8-2
1989-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1578.03	1495.68	54.16%	45.32%	+8.11	9-2
1989-11-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 41-14	1586.14	1465.33	72.64%	26.84%	+12.49	10-2
1989-12-03	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-16	1598.63	1503.78	55.93%	43.55%	-8.65	10-3
1989-12-10	New York Giants	L 7-14	1589.98	1561.51	61.04%	38.43%	-14.42	10-4
1989-12-16	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 37-0	1575.56	1420.77	64.15%	35.33%	+19.23	11-4
1989-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-19	1594.79	1438.46	64.35%	35.12%	-9.95	11-5
1989-09-10	Phoenix Cardinals	L 13-16	1438.62	1470.29	52.60%	46.88%	-8.14	0-1
1989-09-17	@ New York Giants	L 14-24	1430.48	1528.68	29.47%	70.00%	-8.35	0-2
1989-09-24	Chicago Bears	L 27-47	1422.13	1568.64	36.42%	63.05%	-14.57	0-3
1989-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-23	1407.56	1443.41	52.00%	47.48%	-20.78	0-4
1989-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1386.78	1545.09	22.82%	76.66%	-5.41	0-5
1989-10-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-16	1381.37	1459.98	31.87%	67.61%	+6.04	1-5
1989-10-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-20	1387.41	1560.22	32.99%	66.48%	-10.65	1-6
1989-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1376.76	1451.83	32.31%	67.16%	-5.01	1-7
1989-11-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 31-35	1371.75	1531.14	22.71%	76.77%	-4.07	1-8
1989-11-12	Green Bay Packers	W 31-22	1367.68	1461.94	43.63%	55.85%	+14.96	2-8
1989-11-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-42	1382.64	1534.05	23.53%	75.95%	-12.47	2-9
1989-11-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-10	1370.17	1590.63	27.23%	72.24%	+11.17	3-9
1989-12-03	New Orleans Saints	W 21-14	1381.34	1550.05	33.52%	65.96%	+15.58	4-9
1989-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-17	1396.92	1530.25	25.45%	74.03%	+20.90	5-9
1989-12-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-7	1417.82	1412.60	57.83%	41.65%	+19.00	6-9
1989-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-24	1436.82	1361.12	53.21%	46.27%	+10.94	7-9
1989-09-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-23	1456.88	1438.62	59.64%	39.83%	-7.53	0-1
1989-09-17	New Orleans Saints	W 35-34	1449.35	1544.84	43.45%	56.02%	+5.00	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 38-41	1454.35	1559.40	28.66%	70.82%	-4.45	1-2
1989-10-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-21	1449.90	1433.63	59.37%	40.11%	+5.08	2-2
1989-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-13	1454.98	1387.54	66.20%	33.28%	+12.64	3-2
1989-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-26	1467.62	1550.50	31.34%	68.14%	-9.72	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-23	1457.90	1480.87	39.19%	60.29%	-6.07	3-4
1989-10-29	Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1451.83	1376.76	67.16%	32.31%	+5.01	4-4
1989-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 14-13	1456.84	1560.31	42.33%	57.15%	+5.10	5-4
1989-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 22-31	1461.94	1367.68	55.85%	43.63%	-14.96	5-5
1989-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-17	1446.98	1663.55	17.45%	82.03%	+14.65	6-5
1989-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-19	1461.63	1572.08	41.35%	58.13%	+5.19	7-5
1989-12-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-16	1466.82	1421.32	48.87%	50.61%	+4.52	8-5
1989-12-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-21	1471.34	1482.13	55.58%	43.90%	-21.06	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 40-28	1450.28	1509.35	34.36%	65.12%	+20.14	9-6
1989-12-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-10	1470.42	1326.70	62.68%	36.80%	+10.41	10-6
1989-09-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-38	1530.38	1558.19	38.52%	60.95%	-19.19	0-1
1989-09-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-27	1511.19	1436.82	53.02%	46.46%	+10.98	1-1
1989-09-24	Buffalo Bills	L 41-47	1522.17	1521.69	57.17%	42.31%	-12.50	1-2
1989-10-01	Miami Dolphins	W 39-7	1509.67	1473.74	62.05%	37.42%	+18.94	2-2
1989-10-08	@ New England Patriots	L 13-23	1528.61	1456.87	52.64%	46.84%	-14.87	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-28	1513.74	1580.29	33.39%	66.08%	+13.19	3-3
1989-10-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-0	1526.93	1472.27	64.54%	34.93%	+16.25	4-3
1989-10-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-28	1543.18	1556.11	40.57%	58.91%	-12.04	4-4
1989-11-05	Detroit Lions	W 35-31	1531.14	1371.75	76.77%	22.71%	+4.07	5-4
1989-11-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-24	1535.21	1539.48	56.50%	42.98%	+5.44	6-4
1989-11-19	Los Angeles Raiders	W 23-7	1540.65	1511.51	61.13%	38.34%	+13.72	7-4
1989-11-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-34	1554.37	1443.17	58.23%	41.25%	-30.32	7-5
1989-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-16	1524.05	1467.19	50.50%	48.98%	+11.58	8-5
1989-12-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1535.63	1416.80	72.41%	27.06%	+4.20	9-5
1989-12-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-61	1539.83	1540.83	42.24%	57.24%	-27.76	9-6
1989-12-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-24	1512.07	1553.45	51.20%	48.27%	-9.15	9-7
1989-09-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-30	1518.37	1581.75	48.04%	51.44%	-10.52	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-31	1507.85	1547.02	36.99%	62.49%	-12.38	0-2
1989-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-9	1495.47	1439.86	64.67%	34.81%	+6.23	1-2
1989-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 17-10	1501.70	1501.74	42.37%	57.10%	+13.49	2-2
1989-10-08	Buffalo Bills	W 37-14	1515.19	1548.06	52.43%	47.05%	+20.18	3-2
1989-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-14	1535.37	1548.96	40.48%	59.00%	-12.01	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-12	1523.36	1563.91	36.80%	62.67%	+18.56	4-3
1989-10-29	New England Patriots	L 20-23	1541.92	1458.83	68.17%	31.31%	-10.54	4-4
1989-11-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-19	1531.38	1475.68	50.33%	49.14%	-11.02	4-5
1989-11-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1520.36	1554.80	37.62%	61.85%	-16.15	4-6
1989-11-19	New York Jets	W 27-10	1504.21	1427.54	67.36%	32.11%	+11.86	5-6
1989-11-26	San Diego Chargers	W 10-6	1516.07	1443.05	66.91%	32.57%	+5.83	6-6
1989-12-03	@ New England Patriots	L 16-22	1521.90	1465.36	50.46%	49.02%	-11.04	6-7
1989-12-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-17	1510.86	1553.40	51.03%	48.44%	+10.60	7-7
1989-12-17	Miami Dolphins	W 42-13	1521.46	1488.10	61.71%	37.77%	+18.20	8-7
1989-12-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-41	1539.66	1557.15	39.94%	59.54%	-21.14	8-8
1989-09-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-34	1454.86	1506.46	35.34%	64.14%	-11.83	0-1
1989-09-17	Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-19	1443.03	1494.14	49.80%	49.67%	+9.92	1-1
1989-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-21	1452.95	1425.83	46.23%	53.25%	-16.00	1-2
1989-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-21	1436.95	1562.02	39.33%	60.15%	-7.04	1-3
1989-10-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-16	1429.91	1511.28	31.52%	67.95%	+12.13	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-20	1442.04	1479.07	37.28%	62.20%	-8.17	2-4
1989-10-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 36-28	1433.87	1365.66	66.30%	33.18%	+8.41	3-4
1989-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1442.28	1456.02	40.46%	59.02%	-8.87	3-5
1989-11-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-10	1433.41	1501.47	47.37%	52.11%	+14.72	4-5
1989-11-12	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1448.13	1571.91	39.50%	59.97%	-6.12	4-6
1989-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 10-10	1442.01	1591.80	23.69%	75.78%	+1.16	4-6
1989-11-26	Houston Oilers	W 34-0	1443.17	1554.37	41.25%	58.23%	+30.33	5-6
1989-12-03	Miami Dolphins	W 26-21	1473.50	1479.01	56.32%	43.15%	+8.63	6-6
1989-12-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-3	1482.13	1471.34	43.90%	55.58%	+21.06	7-6
1989-12-17	San Diego Chargers	L 13-20	1503.19	1422.43	67.88%	31.60%	-16.04	7-7
1989-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1487.15	1469.90	44.82%	54.66%	+8.46	8-7
1989-09-10	San Diego Chargers	W 40-14	1476.17	1454.79	60.07%	39.40%	+17.97	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-24	1494.14	1443.03	49.67%	49.80%	-9.92	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-31	1484.22	1538.46	34.99%	64.49%	-9.91	1-2
1989-10-01	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-24	1474.31	1501.78	53.20%	46.28%	-9.50	1-3
1989-10-09	@ New York Jets	W 14-7	1464.81	1488.25	39.12%	60.36%	+14.26	2-3
1989-10-15	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-14	1479.07	1442.04	62.20%	37.28%	+8.17	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1487.24	1545.68	34.44%	65.04%	-5.34	3-4
1989-10-29	Washington Redskins	W 37-24	1481.90	1516.72	52.14%	47.33%	+15.25	4-4
1989-11-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-7	1497.15	1560.55	48.04%	51.44%	+21.07	5-4
1989-11-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 12-14	1518.22	1443.25	53.10%	46.38%	-6.71	5-5
1989-11-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-23	1511.51	1540.65	38.34%	61.13%	-13.72	5-6
1989-11-26	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1497.79	1471.36	60.76%	38.71%	+5.99	6-6
1989-12-03	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1503.78	1598.63	43.55%	55.93%	+8.66	7-6
1989-12-10	Phoenix Cardinals	W 16-14	1512.44	1424.66	68.74%	30.73%	+3.89	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1516.33	1474.69	48.31%	51.16%	-10.58	8-7
1989-12-24	@ New York Giants	L 17-34	1505.75	1581.24	32.26%	67.22%	-11.91	8-8
1989-09-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-21	1534.57	1443.02	55.47%	44.01%	+12.45	1-0
1989-09-17	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1547.02	1507.85	62.49%	36.99%	+12.38	2-0
1989-09-24	Green Bay Packers	W 41-38	1559.40	1454.35	70.82%	28.66%	+4.45	3-0
1989-10-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-12	1563.85	1613.03	35.65%	63.82%	+5.70	4-0
1989-10-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-14	1569.55	1428.55	74.86%	24.62%	+7.64	5-0
1989-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1577.19	1527.89	49.41%	50.06%	-7.65	5-1
1989-10-22	New Orleans Saints	L 21-40	1569.54	1521.43	63.68%	35.80%	-24.79	5-2
1989-10-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-20	1544.75	1548.47	41.86%	57.62%	-11.83	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-23	1532.92	1559.11	38.74%	60.73%	-4.91	5-4
1989-11-12	New York Giants	W 31-10	1528.01	1597.64	47.14%	52.34%	+21.43	6-4
1989-11-19	Phoenix Cardinals	W 37-14	1549.44	1461.84	68.72%	30.76%	+13.21	7-4
1989-11-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1562.65	1558.80	42.92%	56.56%	+8.75	8-4
1989-12-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 35-31	1571.40	1341.28	73.33%	26.15%	+4.68	9-4
1989-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-30	1576.08	1665.27	44.35%	55.13%	-6.87	9-5
1989-12-17	New York Jets	W 38-14	1569.21	1422.75	75.44%	24.04%	+10.56	10-5
1989-12-24	@ New England Patriots	W 24-20	1579.77	1443.38	61.69%	37.78%	+6.76	11-5
1989-09-10	Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1473.29	1534.38	48.37%	51.11%	-7.49	0-1
1989-09-17	@ New England Patriots	W 24-10	1465.80	1516.50	35.46%	64.02%	+21.39	1-1
1989-09-24	New York Jets	L 33-40	1487.19	1488.29	56.95%	42.53%	-13.45	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-39	1473.74	1509.67	37.42%	62.05%	-18.95	1-3
1989-10-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-10	1454.79	1566.51	41.17%	58.30%	+9.02	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1463.81	1580.97	27.26%	72.22%	+17.06	3-3
1989-10-22	Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1480.87	1457.90	60.29%	39.19%	+6.08	4-3
1989-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-31	1486.95	1551.68	33.63%	65.85%	-11.27	4-4
1989-11-05	Indianapolis Colts	W 19-13	1475.68	1531.38	49.14%	50.33%	+11.02	5-4
1989-11-12	@ New York Jets	W 31-23	1486.70	1440.30	49.00%	50.48%	+12.76	6-4
1989-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-14	1499.46	1361.75	61.87%	37.60%	+5.83	7-4
1989-11-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-34	1505.29	1440.91	65.80%	33.67%	-26.28	7-5
1989-12-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-26	1479.01	1473.50	43.15%	56.32%	-8.63	7-6
1989-12-10	New England Patriots	W 31-10	1470.38	1476.40	56.25%	43.23%	+17.72	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-42	1488.10	1521.46	37.77%	61.71%	-18.20	8-7
1989-12-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1469.90	1487.15	54.66%	44.82%	-8.46	8-8
1989-09-10	Houston Oilers	W 38-7	1558.19	1530.38	60.95%	38.52%	+19.19	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-38	1577.38	1545.28	46.94%	52.53%	-23.36	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1554.02	1423.82	60.85%	38.62%	-19.60	1-2
1989-10-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-3	1534.42	1455.63	67.63%	31.85%	+10.67	2-2
1989-10-08	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1545.09	1386.78	76.66%	22.82%	+5.41	3-2
1989-10-15	Green Bay Packers	W 26-14	1550.50	1467.62	68.14%	31.34%	+9.72	4-2
1989-10-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-7	1560.22	1387.41	66.48%	32.99%	+10.65	5-2
1989-10-30	@ New York Giants	L 14-24	1570.87	1576.48	41.59%	57.89%	-11.76	5-3
1989-11-05	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-21	1559.11	1532.92	60.73%	38.74%	+4.90	6-3
1989-11-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-10	1564.01	1421.29	62.55%	36.93%	+12.37	7-3
1989-11-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-10	1576.38	1536.51	48.06%	51.42%	-4.30	7-4
1989-11-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-20	1572.08	1461.63	58.13%	41.35%	-5.19	7-5
1989-12-03	Chicago Bears	W 27-16	1566.89	1541.79	60.58%	38.89%	+11.54	8-5
1989-12-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 43-17	1578.43	1372.48	81.13%	18.35%	+8.39	9-5
1989-12-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-23	1586.82	1542.80	48.65%	50.82%	-10.65	9-6
1989-12-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-21	1576.17	1568.59	58.16%	41.32%	+10.45	10-6
1989-09-10	@ New York Jets	W 27-24	1507.64	1508.63	42.24%	57.24%	+8.86	1-0
1989-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1516.50	1465.80	64.02%	35.46%	-21.39	1-1
1989-09-24	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-24	1495.11	1477.40	59.57%	39.91%	-24.38	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1470.73	1534.20	33.79%	65.69%	-13.86	1-3
1989-10-08	Houston Oilers	W 23-13	1456.87	1528.61	46.84%	52.64%	+14.87	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 15-16	1471.74	1420.91	49.63%	49.84%	-4.44	2-4
1989-10-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-37	1467.30	1624.46	22.94%	76.54%	-8.47	2-5
1989-10-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1458.83	1541.92	31.31%	68.17%	+10.54	3-5
1989-11-05	New York Jets	L 26-27	1469.37	1434.78	61.87%	37.60%	-5.53	3-6
1989-11-12	New Orleans Saints	L 24-28	1463.84	1540.68	46.11%	53.37%	-8.24	3-7
1989-11-19	Buffalo Bills	W 33-24	1455.60	1570.95	40.67%	58.81%	+15.76	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 21-24	1471.36	1497.79	38.71%	60.76%	-6.00	4-8
1989-12-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 22-16	1465.36	1521.90	49.02%	50.46%	+11.04	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-31	1476.40	1470.38	43.23%	56.25%	-17.71	5-9
1989-12-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1458.69	1473.31	40.34%	59.14%	-15.31	5-10
1989-12-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-24	1443.38	1579.77	37.78%	61.69%	-6.76	5-11
1989-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-0	1530.11	1445.32	68.37%	31.10%	+14.73	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 34-35	1544.84	1449.35	56.02%	43.45%	-5.00	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1539.84	1439.62	56.69%	42.79%	-16.01	1-2
1989-10-01	Washington Redskins	L 14-16	1523.83	1504.10	59.85%	39.63%	-7.56	1-3
1989-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1516.27	1607.33	44.08%	55.40%	-7.88	1-4
1989-10-15	New York Jets	W 29-14	1508.39	1473.99	61.85%	37.63%	+13.04	2-4
1989-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 40-21	1521.43	1569.54	35.80%	63.68%	+24.78	3-4
1989-10-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-13	1546.21	1411.88	74.14%	25.34%	+6.01	4-4
1989-11-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-31	1552.22	1642.97	30.37%	69.11%	-11.54	4-5
1989-11-12	@ New England Patriots	W 28-24	1540.68	1463.84	53.37%	46.11%	+8.25	5-5
1989-11-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-17	1548.93	1404.97	62.71%	36.76%	+9.87	6-5
1989-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1558.80	1562.65	56.56%	42.92%	-8.75	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1550.05	1381.34	65.96%	33.52%	-15.59	6-7
1989-12-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 22-19	1534.46	1565.09	38.14%	61.34%	+9.49	7-7
1989-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-20	1543.95	1574.18	52.80%	46.67%	+13.20	8-7
1989-12-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 41-6	1557.15	1539.66	59.54%	39.94%	+21.13	9-7
1989-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1520.25	1501.90	44.98%	54.50%	+8.43	1-0
1989-09-17	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1528.68	1430.48	70.00%	29.47%	+8.35	2-0
1989-09-24	Phoenix Cardinals	W 35-7	1537.03	1495.18	62.85%	36.63%	+17.34	3-0
1989-10-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-13	1554.37	1400.63	64.01%	35.46%	+13.09	4-0
1989-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-21	1567.46	1525.27	48.39%	51.09%	-6.12	4-1
1989-10-15	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1561.34	1516.12	63.30%	36.18%	+5.61	5-1
1989-10-22	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1566.95	1448.79	59.20%	40.28%	+9.53	6-1
1989-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1576.48	1570.87	57.89%	41.59%	+11.77	7-1
1989-11-05	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-13	1588.25	1465.76	59.80%	39.68%	+9.39	8-1
1989-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-31	1597.64	1528.01	52.34%	47.14%	-21.43	8-2
1989-11-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 15-3	1576.21	1474.34	70.44%	29.03%	+9.01	9-2
1989-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-34	1585.22	1648.90	33.76%	65.71%	-9.56	9-3
1989-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1575.66	1555.45	59.91%	39.56%	-14.15	9-4
1989-12-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 14-7	1561.51	1589.98	38.43%	61.04%	+14.42	10-4
1989-12-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 15-0	1575.93	1332.02	84.18%	15.30%	+5.31	11-4
1989-12-24	Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-17	1581.24	1505.75	67.22%	32.26%	+11.91	12-4
1989-09-10	New England Patriots	L 24-27	1508.63	1507.64	57.24%	42.24%	-8.86	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-38	1499.77	1559.39	34.29%	65.19%	-11.48	0-2
1989-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 40-33	1488.29	1487.19	42.53%	56.95%	+13.45	1-2
1989-10-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-17	1501.74	1501.70	57.10%	42.37%	-13.49	1-3
1989-10-09	Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-14	1488.25	1464.81	60.36%	39.12%	-14.26	1-4
1989-10-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-29	1473.99	1508.39	37.63%	61.85%	-13.04	1-5
1989-10-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-34	1460.95	1535.54	32.37%	67.10%	-16.14	1-6
1989-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1444.81	1632.93	31.07%	68.40%	-10.03	1-7
1989-11-05	@ New England Patriots	W 27-26	1434.78	1469.37	37.60%	61.87%	+5.52	2-7
1989-11-12	Miami Dolphins	L 23-31	1440.30	1486.70	50.48%	49.00%	-12.76	2-8
1989-11-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-27	1427.54	1504.21	32.11%	67.36%	-11.85	2-9
1989-11-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-7	1415.69	1395.10	59.96%	39.51%	+15.81	3-9
1989-12-03	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1431.50	1437.21	41.58%	57.90%	+8.95	4-9
1989-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-13	1440.45	1455.61	54.96%	44.52%	-17.70	4-10
1989-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-38	1422.75	1569.21	24.04%	75.44%	-10.55	4-11
1989-12-23	Buffalo Bills	L 0-37	1412.20	1547.49	37.93%	61.55%	-20.65	4-12
1989-09-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-7	1523.69	1512.00	58.73%	40.74%	+17.86	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 42-37	1541.55	1493.47	49.24%	50.24%	+10.04	2-0
1989-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1551.59	1598.80	50.36%	49.11%	-14.23	2-1
1989-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1537.36	1583.22	36.09%	63.38%	-12.09	2-2
1989-10-08	New York Giants	W 21-19	1525.27	1567.46	51.09%	48.39%	+6.12	3-2
1989-10-15	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 17-5	1531.39	1454.99	53.31%	46.17%	+14.29	4-2
1989-10-22	Los Angeles Raiders	W 10-7	1545.68	1487.24	65.04%	34.44%	+5.34	5-2
1989-10-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-24	1551.02	1568.54	39.94%	59.54%	+10.64	6-2
1989-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1561.66	1433.89	60.52%	38.96%	-9.36	6-3
1989-11-12	Washington Redskins	L 3-10	1552.30	1479.89	66.83%	32.65%	-15.79	6-4
1989-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-9	1536.51	1576.38	51.42%	48.06%	+4.30	7-4
1989-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-0	1540.81	1355.92	68.00%	31.48%	+14.64	8-4
1989-12-03	@ New York Giants	W 24-17	1555.45	1575.66	39.56%	59.91%	+14.16	9-4
1989-12-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-10	1569.61	1336.59	83.35%	16.13%	+4.57	10-4
1989-12-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1574.18	1543.95	46.67%	52.80%	-13.19	10-5
1989-12-24	Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-14	1560.99	1401.54	76.77%	22.70%	+8.39	11-5
1989-09-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1470.29	1438.62	46.88%	52.60%	+8.14	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-24	1478.43	1494.14	40.19%	59.29%	+16.75	2-0
1989-09-24	@ New York Giants	L 7-35	1495.18	1537.03	36.63%	62.85%	-17.35	2-1
1989-10-01	San Diego Chargers	L 13-24	1477.83	1441.83	62.06%	37.41%	-18.38	2-2
1989-10-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 28-30	1459.45	1511.66	35.26%	64.22%	-4.46	2-3
1989-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 5-17	1454.99	1531.39	46.17%	53.31%	-14.30	2-4
1989-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-20	1440.69	1425.34	59.24%	40.24%	+13.47	3-4
1989-10-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-10	1454.16	1357.25	56.22%	43.25%	+11.60	4-4
1989-11-05	New York Giants	L 13-20	1465.76	1588.25	39.68%	59.80%	-9.39	4-5
1989-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1456.37	1367.22	68.91%	30.57%	+5.47	5-5
1989-11-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-37	1461.84	1549.44	30.76%	68.72%	-13.20	5-6
1989-11-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-14	1448.64	1415.82	61.63%	37.84%	-5.51	5-7
1989-12-03	Washington Redskins	L 10-29	1443.13	1510.98	47.40%	52.08%	-18.47	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-16	1424.66	1512.44	30.73%	68.74%	-3.89	5-9
1989-12-16	Denver Broncos	L 0-37	1420.77	1575.56	35.33%	64.15%	-19.23	5-10
1989-12-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-31	1401.54	1560.99	22.70%	76.77%	-8.39	5-11
1989-09-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-51	1469.61	1528.30	48.71%	50.76%	-31.09	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-41	1438.52	1536.64	29.48%	70.00%	-14.70	0-2
1989-09-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-14	1423.82	1554.02	38.62%	60.85%	+19.59	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-3	1443.41	1407.56	47.48%	52.00%	+20.78	2-2
1989-10-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-26	1464.19	1569.05	42.13%	57.34%	-11.92	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1452.27	1557.49	28.64%	70.84%	+20.00	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-27	1472.27	1526.93	34.93%	64.54%	-16.25	3-4
1989-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-17	1456.02	1442.28	59.02%	40.46%	+8.87	4-4
1989-11-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-34	1464.89	1557.91	30.10%	69.38%	-14.01	4-5
1989-11-12	Chicago Bears	L 0-20	1450.88	1555.21	42.21%	57.27%	-16.88	4-6
1989-11-19	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1434.00	1449.96	54.84%	44.64%	+6.91	5-6
1989-11-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-14	1440.91	1505.29	33.67%	65.80%	+26.28	6-6
1989-12-03	Houston Oilers	L 16-23	1467.19	1524.05	48.98%	50.50%	-11.58	6-7
1989-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 13-0	1455.61	1440.45	44.52%	54.96%	+17.70	7-7
1989-12-17	New England Patriots	W 28-10	1473.31	1458.69	59.14%	40.34%	+15.31	8-7
1989-12-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-22	1488.62	1393.61	55.96%	43.52%	+11.67	9-7
1989-09-10	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-40	1454.79	1476.17	39.40%	60.07%	-17.97	0-1
1989-09-17	Houston Oilers	L 27-34	1436.82	1511.19	46.46%	53.02%	-10.99	0-2
1989-09-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-6	1425.83	1452.95	53.25%	46.23%	+16.00	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 24-13	1441.83	1477.83	37.41%	62.06%	+18.38	2-2
1989-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-16	1460.21	1542.06	31.47%	68.01%	-6.90	2-3
1989-10-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1453.31	1499.15	50.56%	48.91%	-4.52	2-4
1989-10-22	New York Giants	L 13-20	1448.79	1566.95	40.28%	59.20%	-9.53	2-5
1989-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-10	1439.26	1496.09	34.65%	64.83%	-5.37	2-6
1989-11-05	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1433.89	1561.66	38.96%	60.52%	+9.36	3-6
1989-11-12	Los Angeles Raiders	W 14-12	1443.25	1518.22	46.38%	53.10%	+6.71	4-6
1989-11-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1449.96	1434.00	44.64%	54.84%	-6.91	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1443.05	1516.07	32.57%	66.91%	-5.84	4-8
1989-12-03	New York Jets	L 17-20	1437.21	1431.50	57.90%	41.58%	-8.95	4-9
1989-12-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-26	1428.26	1529.45	29.11%	70.36%	-5.83	4-10
1989-12-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-13	1422.43	1503.19	31.60%	67.88%	+16.03	5-10
1989-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1438.46	1594.79	35.12%	64.35%	+9.95	6-10
1989-09-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-24	1581.75	1518.37	51.44%	48.04%	+10.52	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-16	1592.27	1446.15	63.00%	36.48%	+6.53	2-0
1989-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-28	1598.80	1551.59	49.11%	50.36%	+14.23	3-0
1989-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 12-13	1613.03	1563.85	63.82%	35.65%	-5.70	3-1
1989-10-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-20	1607.33	1516.27	55.40%	44.08%	+7.88	4-1
1989-10-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-14	1615.21	1374.90	74.45%	25.03%	+9.25	5-1
1989-10-22	New England Patriots	W 37-20	1624.46	1467.30	76.54%	22.94%	+8.47	6-1
1989-10-29	@ New York Jets	W 23-10	1632.93	1444.81	68.40%	31.07%	+10.04	7-1
1989-11-06	New Orleans Saints	W 31-13	1642.97	1552.22	69.11%	30.37%	+11.54	8-1
1989-11-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 45-3	1654.51	1414.01	83.92%	15.55%	+9.04	9-1
1989-11-19	Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1663.55	1446.98	82.03%	17.45%	-14.65	9-2
1989-11-27	New York Giants	W 34-24	1648.90	1585.22	65.71%	33.76%	+9.56	10-2
1989-12-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-10	1658.46	1379.29	78.41%	21.07%	+6.81	11-2
1989-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-27	1665.27	1576.08	55.13%	44.35%	+6.86	12-2
1989-12-17	Buffalo Bills	W 21-10	1672.13	1555.61	72.15%	27.33%	+8.12	13-2
1989-12-24	Chicago Bears	W 26-0	1680.25	1489.21	79.81%	19.67%	+9.00	14-2
1989-09-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-31	1512.00	1523.69	40.74%	58.73%	-17.86	0-1
1989-09-17	Phoenix Cardinals	L 24-34	1494.14	1478.43	59.29%	40.19%	-16.74	0-2
1989-09-24	@ New England Patriots	W 24-3	1477.40	1495.11	39.91%	59.57%	+24.38	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-20	1501.78	1474.31	46.28%	53.20%	+9.50	2-2
1989-10-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-20	1511.28	1429.91	67.95%	31.52%	-12.13	2-3
1989-10-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-16	1499.15	1453.31	48.91%	50.56%	+4.52	3-3
1989-10-22	Denver Broncos	L 21-24	1503.67	1560.97	48.91%	50.56%	-7.58	3-4
1989-10-29	San Diego Chargers	W 10-7	1496.09	1439.26	64.83%	34.65%	+5.38	4-4
1989-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-20	1501.47	1433.41	52.11%	47.37%	-14.73	4-5
1989-11-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1486.74	1579.39	43.86%	55.62%	-12.40	4-6
1989-11-19	@ New York Giants	L 3-15	1474.34	1576.21	29.03%	70.44%	-9.01	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-41	1465.33	1586.14	26.84%	72.64%	-12.49	4-8
1989-12-04	Buffalo Bills	W 17-16	1452.84	1570.37	40.37%	59.11%	+5.28	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-17	1458.12	1557.40	29.34%	70.13%	+16.57	6-8
1989-12-17	Los Angeles Raiders	W 23-17	1474.69	1516.33	51.16%	48.31%	+10.57	7-8
1989-12-23	Washington Redskins	L 0-29	1485.26	1538.25	49.53%	49.94%	-23.84	7-9
1989-09-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-21	1438.62	1456.88	39.83%	59.64%	+7.53	1-0
1989-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1446.15	1592.27	36.48%	63.00%	-6.53	1-1
1989-09-24	New Orleans Saints	W 20-10	1439.62	1539.84	42.79%	56.69%	+16.01	2-1
1989-10-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-17	1455.63	1534.42	31.85%	67.63%	-10.66	2-2
1989-10-08	Chicago Bears	W 42-35	1444.97	1595.31	35.91%	63.56%	+15.01	3-2
1989-10-15	Detroit Lions	L 16-17	1459.98	1381.37	67.61%	31.87%	-6.03	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 28-32	1453.95	1510.51	34.68%	64.79%	-6.21	3-4
1989-10-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-56	1447.74	1545.35	29.54%	69.93%	-15.20	3-5
1989-11-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-42	1432.54	1568.15	37.89%	61.59%	-11.25	3-6
1989-11-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1421.29	1564.01	36.93%	62.55%	-12.36	3-7
1989-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 32-31	1408.93	1572.09	22.33%	77.15%	+6.89	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 14-13	1415.82	1448.64	37.84%	61.63%	+5.50	5-7
1989-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 16-17	1421.32	1466.82	50.61%	48.87%	-4.52	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-20	1416.80	1535.63	27.06%	72.41%	-4.20	5-9
1989-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-33	1412.60	1417.82	41.65%	57.83%	-18.99	5-10
1989-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 22-31	1393.61	1488.62	43.52%	55.96%	-11.68	5-11
1989-09-11	New York Giants	L 24-27	1501.90	1520.25	54.50%	44.98%	-8.43	0-1
1989-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 37-42	1493.47	1541.55	50.24%	49.24%	-10.04	0-2
1989-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-7	1483.43	1421.30	51.26%	48.22%	+20.67	1-2
1989-10-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-14	1504.10	1523.83	39.63%	59.85%	+7.56	2-2
1989-10-08	Phoenix Cardinals	W 30-28	1511.66	1459.45	64.22%	35.26%	+4.46	3-2
1989-10-15	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1516.12	1561.34	36.18%	63.30%	-5.61	3-3
1989-10-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-28	1510.51	1453.95	64.79%	34.68%	+6.21	4-3
1989-10-29	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-37	1516.72	1481.90	47.33%	52.14%	-15.25	4-4
1989-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-13	1501.47	1345.65	76.40%	23.07%	-21.58	4-5
1989-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-3	1479.89	1552.30	32.65%	66.83%	+15.79	5-5
1989-11-20	Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1495.68	1578.03	45.32%	54.16%	-8.10	5-6
1989-11-26	Chicago Bears	W 38-14	1487.58	1565.20	46.00%	53.48%	+23.40	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 29-10	1510.98	1443.13	52.08%	47.40%	+18.47	7-6
1989-12-10	San Diego Chargers	W 26-21	1529.45	1428.26	70.36%	29.11%	+5.83	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-30	1535.28	1364.09	66.28%	33.20%	+2.97	9-6
1989-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 29-0	1538.25	1485.26	49.94%	49.53%	+23.84	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1990-01-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 30-34	1568.13	1562.60	43.41%	56.59%	-7.72	0-1
1990-01-06	Buffalo Bills	W 34-30	1562.60	1568.13	56.59%	43.41%	+7.72	1-0
1990-01-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-37	1570.32	1587.72	40.20%	59.80%	-14.30	1-1
1990-01-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-23	1584.84	1509.18	67.53%	32.47%	+2.88	1-0
1990-01-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-21	1587.72	1570.32	59.80%	40.20%	+14.30	2-0
1990-01-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-55	1602.02	1717.36	33.98%	66.02%	-20.27	2-1
1989-12-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-26	1502.92	1500.29	57.74%	42.26%	-8.89	0-1
1989-12-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-7	1586.53	1569.38	45.06%	54.94%	+18.27	1-0
1990-01-07	@ New York Giants	W 19-13	1604.80	1593.15	44.28%	55.72%	+12.14	2-0
1990-01-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-30	1616.94	1702.96	31.17%	68.83%	-14.40	2-1
1990-01-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-41	1586.62	1689.25	29.16%	70.84%	-13.72	0-1
1990-01-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-19	1593.15	1604.80	55.72%	44.28%	-12.13	0-1
1989-12-31	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-21	1569.38	1586.53	54.94%	45.06%	-18.28	0-1
1989-12-31	@ Houston Oilers	W 26-23	1500.29	1502.92	42.26%	57.74%	+8.89	1-0
1990-01-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-24	1509.18	1584.84	32.47%	67.53%	-2.88	1-1
1990-01-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-13	1689.25	1586.62	70.84%	29.16%	+13.71	1-0
1990-01-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-3	1702.96	1616.94	68.83%	31.17%	+14.40	2-0
1990-01-28	Denver Broncos	W 55-10	1717.36	1602.02	66.02%	33.98%	+20.27	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1989-11-19	17.45%	Green Bay Packers	1446.98	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1663.55	17
2	1989-11-19	22.33%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1408.93	32	@ Chicago Bears	1572.09	31
3	1989-11-05	23.07%	Dallas Cowboys	1345.65	13	@ Washington Redskins	1501.47	3
4	1989-12-10	25.45%	Detroit Lions	1396.92	27	@ Chicago Bears	1530.25	17
5	1989-11-23	27.23%	@ Detroit Lions	1370.17	13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1590.63	10
6	1989-10-15	27.26%	Miami Dolphins	1463.81	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1580.97	13
7	1989-10-15	28.64%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1452.27	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1557.49	7
8	1989-12-10	29.34%	Seattle Seahawks	1458.12	24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1557.40	17
9	1989-10-29	31.31%	New England Patriots	1458.83	23	@ Indianapolis Colts	1541.92	20
10	1989-10-08	31.52%	Kansas City Chiefs	1429.91	20	@ Seattle Seahawks	1511.28	16
11	1989-12-17	31.60%	San Diego Chargers	1422.43	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1503.19	13
12	1989-10-15	31.87%	Detroit Lions	1381.37	17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1459.98	16
13	1989-11-12	32.65%	Washington Redskins	1479.89	10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1552.30	3
14	1989-10-15	33.39%	Houston Oilers	1513.74	33	@ Chicago Bears	1580.29	28
15	1989-12-03	33.52%	@ Detroit Lions	1381.34	21	New Orleans Saints	1550.05	14
16	1989-11-26	33.67%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1440.91	34	@ Miami Dolphins	1505.29	14
17	1989-12-17	34.36%	Green Bay Packers	1450.28	40	@ Chicago Bears	1509.35	28
18	1989-11-05	35.03%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1405.87	30	Buffalo Bills	1562.94	28
19	1989-12-24	35.12%	@ San Diego Chargers	1438.46	19	Denver Broncos	1594.79	16
20	1989-09-17	35.46%	Miami Dolphins	1465.80	24	@ New England Patriots	1516.50	10
21	1989-10-01	35.65%	Los Angeles Rams	1563.85	13	@ San Francisco 49ers	1613.03	12
22	1989-12-03	35.79%	Cincinnati Bengals	1531.34	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1579.46	0
23	1989-10-22	35.80%	New Orleans Saints	1521.43	40	@ Los Angeles Rams	1569.54	21
24	1989-10-08	35.91%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1444.97	42	Chicago Bears	1595.31	35
25	1989-10-22	36.80%	Indianapolis Colts	1523.36	23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1563.91	12

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1989-09-10	31.09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	51	1528.30	50.76%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1469.61	48.71%
2	1989-11-26	30.33	@ Kansas City Chiefs	34	1443.17	41.25%	Houston Oilers	0	1554.37	58.23%
3	1989-12-17	27.76	@ Cincinnati Bengals	61	1540.83	57.24%	Houston Oilers	7	1539.83	42.24%
4	1989-11-26	26.28	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1440.91	33.67%	@ Miami Dolphins	14	1505.29	65.80%
5	1989-12-03	26.06	Cincinnati Bengals	21	1531.34	35.79%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	0	1579.46	63.68%
6	1989-10-22	24.79	New Orleans Saints	40	1521.43	35.80%	@ Los Angeles Rams	21	1569.54	63.68%
7	1989-09-24	24.38	Seattle Seahawks	24	1477.40	39.91%	@ New England Patriots	3	1495.11	59.57%
8	1989-12-23	23.84	Washington Redskins	29	1538.25	49.94%	@ Seattle Seahawks	0	1485.26	49.53%
9	1989-11-26	23.41	@ Washington Redskins	38	1487.58	46.00%	Chicago Bears	14	1565.20	53.48%
10	1989-09-17	23.36	@ Chicago Bears	38	1545.28	52.53%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1577.38	46.94%
11	1989-11-05	21.58	Dallas Cowboys	13	1345.65	23.07%	@ Washington Redskins	3	1501.47	76.40%
12	1989-11-12	21.43	@ Los Angeles Rams	31	1528.01	47.14%	New York Giants	10	1597.64	52.34%
13	1989-09-17	21.39	Miami Dolphins	24	1465.80	35.46%	@ New England Patriots	10	1516.50	64.02%
14	1989-12-24	21.14	@ New Orleans Saints	41	1557.15	59.54%	Indianapolis Colts	6	1539.66	39.94%
15	1989-11-05	21.07	@ Los Angeles Raiders	28	1497.15	48.04%	Cincinnati Bengals	7	1560.55	51.44%
16	1989-12-10	21.06	Kansas City Chiefs	21	1482.13	43.90%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1471.34	55.58%
17	1989-12-10	20.90	Detroit Lions	27	1396.92	25.45%	@ Chicago Bears	17	1530.25	74.03%
18	1989-10-01	20.78	Pittsburgh Steelers	23	1443.41	47.48%	@ Detroit Lions	3	1407.56	52.00%
19	1989-09-24	20.67	Washington Redskins	30	1483.43	51.26%	@ Dallas Cowboys	7	1421.30	48.22%
20	1989-12-23	20.65	Buffalo Bills	37	1547.49	61.55%	@ New York Jets	0	1412.20	37.93%
21	1990-01-28 *	20.27	@ San Francisco 49ers	55	1717.36	66.02%	Denver Broncos	10	1602.02	33.98%
22	1989-09-18	20.18	Denver Broncos	28	1518.29	39.10%	@ Buffalo Bills	14	1541.87	60.37%
23	1989-10-08	20.18	@ Indianapolis Colts	37	1515.19	52.43%	Buffalo Bills	14	1548.06	47.05%
24	1989-12-17	20.14	Green Bay Packers	40	1450.28	34.36%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1509.35	65.12%
25	1989-10-15	20.00	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	1452.27	28.64%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1557.49	70.84%