1990 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New York Giants

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1986

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Los Angeles Raiders

3.20 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.80 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New England Patriots

4.39 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.39 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	9	7	.562	—	360	352	+8	8.63	+0.37
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	9	7	.562	—	405	307	+98	8.28	+0.72
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	—	292	240	+52	8.47	+0.53
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	13	.188	6	228	462	-234	6.51	-3.51

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	13	3	.812	—	428	263	+165	10.07	+2.93
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	12	4	.750	1	336	242	+94	9.24	+2.76
3	Indianapolis Colts	7	9	.438	6	281	353	-72	7.08	-0.08
4	New York Jets	6	10	.375	7	295	345	-50	6.80	-0.80
5	New England Patriots	1	15	.062	12	181	446	-265	5.39	-4.39

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	12	4	.750	—	337	268	+69	8.80	+3.20
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	369	257	+112	8.96	+2.04
3	Seattle Seahawks	9	7	.562	3	306	286	+20	7.31	+1.69
4	San Diego Chargers	6	10	.375	6	315	281	+34	7.78	-1.78
5	Denver Broncos	5	11	.312	7	331	374	-43	7.87	-2.87

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	5	.688	—	348	280	+68	9.58	+1.42
2	Minnesota Vikings	6	10	.375	5	351	326	+25	8.12	-2.12
3	Detroit Lions	6	10	.375	5	373	413	-40	6.79	-0.79
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	.375	5	264	367	-103	6.85	-0.85
5	Green Bay Packers	6	10	.375	5	271	347	-76	7.38	-1.38

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	13	3	.812	—	335	211	+124	10.37	+2.63
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	381	301	+80	8.89	+1.11
3	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	396	299	+97	8.78	+1.22
4	Dallas Cowboys	7	9	.438	6	244	308	-64	6.15	+0.85
5	Phoenix Cardinals	5	11	.312	8	268	396	-128	5.89	-0.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	14	2	.875	—	353	239	+114	11.18	+2.82
2	New Orleans Saints Playoffs	8	8	.500	6	274	275	-1	8.39	-0.39
3	Los Angeles Rams	5	11	.312	9	345	412	-67	7.90	-2.90
4	Atlanta Falcons	5	11	.312	9	348	365	-17	6.51	-1.51

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 17

Kansas City Chiefs 16

Jan 5

Cincinnati Bengals 41

Houston Oilers 14

Jan 6

Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills 44

Miami Dolphins 34

Jan 12

Los Angeles Raiders 20

Cincinnati Bengals 10

Jan 13

Conference Championship

Buffalo Bills 51

Los Angeles Raiders 3

Jan 20

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 20

Philadelphia Eagles 6

Jan 5

Chicago Bears 16

New Orleans Saints 6

Jan 6

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 28

Washington Redskins 10

Jan 12

New York Giants 31

Chicago Bears 3

Jan 13

Conference Championship

New York Giants 15

San Francisco 49ers 13

Jan 20

Super Bowl

New York Giants 20

Buffalo Bills 19

Jan 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1669	14	11.18	+2.82	97.65%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1646	13	10.07	+2.93	97.11%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1632	13	10.37	+2.63	96.09%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1594	10	8.78	+1.22	82.39%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1590	12	8.80	+3.20	97.54%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1589	11	8.96	+2.04	90.97%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1584	12	9.24	+2.76	96.81%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1581	10	8.89	+1.11	79.71%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1566	9	8.28	+0.72	73.45%	0	5	7	8	10	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1542	11	9.58	+1.42	84.47%	1	6	8	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1528	9	8.47	+0.53	70.89%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1525	9	7.31	+1.69	86.90%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1524	8	8.39	-0.39	52.45%	2	5	7	8	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1516	9	8.63	+0.37	67.50%	2	5	7	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1509	6	8.12	-2.12	20.01%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1477	6	7.78	-1.78	26.41%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1466	7	7.08	-0.08	59.30%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1465	5	7.87	-2.87	11.50%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1464	6	6.79	-0.79	44.61%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1460	5	7.90	-2.90	10.33%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1423	6	7.38	-1.38	32.79%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1421	5	6.51	-1.51	30.82%	0	3	5	6	8	10	13
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1419	7	6.15	+0.85	76.02%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1402	6	6.85	-0.85	44.15%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1401	6	6.80	-0.80	44.47%	0	4	5	7	8	10	16
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1392	5	5.89	-0.89	42.28%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1343	3	6.51	-3.51	4.81%	0	4	5	6	8	10	13
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1272	1	5.39	-4.39	0.90%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	—
New York Jets	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	—	—	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (2.0 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.67%	2.01%	1.12%	1.12%	0.45%	0.22%	5.58%
7–13	0.67%	5.36%	4.91%	6.47%	2.68%	2.23%	0.22%	22.54%
14–20	2.01%	4.91%	6.70%	6.25%	3.12%	1.12%	1.12%	25.22%
21–27	1.12%	6.47%	6.25%	8.48%	2.01%	1.56%	0.67%	26.56%
28–34	1.12%	2.68%	3.12%	2.01%	1.79%	0.45%	—	11.16%
35–41	0.45%	2.23%	1.12%	1.56%	0.45%	0.45%	0.22%	6.47%
42+	0.22%	0.22%	1.12%	0.67%	—	0.22%	—	2.46%
Total	5.58%	22.54%	25.22%	26.56%	11.16%	6.47%	2.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	20.12	+0.00
SD	10.02	10.02	15.27
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	58	58	+44
Min	0	0	-44

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	12.50%	43.75%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	22.81	-1.06
SD	11.26	10.62	12.04
CV	0.52	0.47	—
Max	47	45	+21
Min	7	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.75	16.44	+10.31
SD	10.24	10.40	16.34
CV	0.38	0.63	—
Max	45	30	+42
Min	7	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	17.50	+4.25
SD	8.78	10.72	15.30
CV	0.40	0.61	—
Max	38	41	+29
Min	9	0	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	22.00	+0.50
SD	10.35	11.89	18.28
CV	0.46	0.54	—
Max	41	48	+34
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.25	28.88	-14.62
SD	8.58	12.81	16.45
CV	0.60	0.44	—
Max	30	58	+10
Min	0	3	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	19.25	-4.00
SD	9.92	6.32	13.95
CV	0.65	0.33	—
Max	41	31	+31
Min	3	10	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.69	23.38	-2.69
SD	7.60	8.66	8.14
CV	0.37	0.37	—
Max	34	40	+10
Min	7	10	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.31	25.81	-2.50
SD	11.41	9.88	12.80
CV	0.49	0.38	—
Max	40	43	+17
Min	0	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	56.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.94	21.69	-4.75
SD	9.38	6.16	12.97
CV	0.55	0.28	—
Max	36	31	+14
Min	0	10	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.31	19.19	+6.12
SD	13.45	10.88	17.48
CV	0.53	0.57	—
Max	58	47	+44
Min	9	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	50.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	22.06	-4.50
SD	9.16	5.51	11.21
CV	0.52	0.25	—
Max	35	31	+14
Min	7	10	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	43.75%	—	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.06	16.06	+7.00
SD	10.14	8.55	13.76
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	43	27	+34
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	50.00%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.06	16.75	+4.31
SD	7.13	10.21	9.23
CV	0.34	0.61	—
Max	38	38	+17
Min	7	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.56	25.75	-4.19
SD	11.09	8.35	15.98
CV	0.51	0.32	—
Max	44	41	+21
Min	7	13	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	15.12	+5.88
SD	7.45	9.93	13.65
CV	0.35	0.66	—
Max	30	42	+23
Min	3	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.94	20.38	+1.56
SD	7.70	8.83	13.09
CV	0.35	0.43	—
Max	41	34	+29
Min	10	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	18.75%	6.25%	56.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.31	27.88	-16.56
SD	6.35	11.48	11.70
CV	0.56	0.41	—
Max	24	48	+2
Min	0	13	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	17.19	-0.06
SD	8.96	9.03	14.17
CV	0.52	0.53	—
Max	35	32	+28
Min	3	7	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	37.50%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	13.19	+7.75
SD	7.46	8.12	11.12
CV	0.36	0.62	—
Max	31	31	+24
Min	3	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.44	21.56	-3.12
SD	11.01	9.75	17.85
CV	0.60	0.45	—
Max	42	39	+35
Min	3	7	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	50.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.75	18.69	+6.06
SD	8.74	8.19	11.91
CV	0.35	0.44	—
Max	48	30	+31
Min	7	0	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.75	24.75	-8.00
SD	8.76	10.86	17.19
CV	0.52	0.44	—
Max	34	45	+20
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.25	15.00	+3.25
SD	13.05	9.88	20.10
CV	0.72	0.66	—
Max	41	34	+35
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	—	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	17.56	+2.12
SD	11.56	7.99	17.19
CV	0.59	0.46	—
Max	41	36	+36
Min	7	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.06	14.94	+7.12
SD	8.85	8.33	9.12
CV	0.40	0.56	—
Max	45	35	+24
Min	7	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.12	17.88	+1.25
SD	8.64	7.80	10.66
CV	0.45	0.44	—
Max	33	34	+20
Min	0	7	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	50.00%	18.75%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	22.94	-6.44
SD	9.01	8.62	15.19
CV	0.55	0.38	—
Max	38	41	+17
Min	6	13	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	18.81	+5.00
SD	10.87	10.50	14.58
CV	0.46	0.56	—
Max	42	38	+31
Min	10	0	-14

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Raiders	12	8.80	+3.20
2	Buffalo Bills	13	10.07	+2.93
3	San Francisco 49ers	14	11.18	+2.82
4	Miami Dolphins	12	9.24	+2.76
5	New York Giants	13	10.37	+2.63

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	1	5.39	-4.39
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	6.51	-3.51
3	Los Angeles Rams	5	7.90	-2.90
4	Denver Broncos	5	7.87	-2.87
5	Minnesota Vikings	6	8.12	-2.12

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	10	Sep 9 – Nov 18	1 in 78
2	San Francisco 49ers	10	Sep 10 – Nov 18	1 in 39
3	Dallas Cowboys	4	Nov 18 – Dec 16	1 in 38
4	Minnesota Vikings	5	Nov 4 – Dec 2	1 in 33
5	Buffalo Bills	8	Sep 24 – Nov 18	1 in 26

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	14	Sep 23 – Dec 30	1 in 293
2	Minnesota Vikings	5	Sep 23 – Oct 28	1 in 63
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	Oct 14 – Dec 9	1 in 44
4	Atlanta Falcons	7	Nov 4 – Dec 16	1 in 43
5	Denver Broncos	6	Nov 4 – Dec 9	1 in 27

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cincinnati Bengals	33.59%	28.60%	24.10%	13.71%
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.22%	29.28%	24.70%	14.80%
Houston Oilers	28.87%	27.73%	26.30%	17.10%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.32%	14.39%	24.90%	54.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	54.29%	27.82%	11.87%	4.73%	1.29%
Miami Dolphins	32.22%	36.47%	19.01%	9.21%	3.09%
Indianapolis Colts	7.04%	17.03%	28.55%	27.93%	19.45%
New York Jets	5.27%	13.85%	26.48%	30.81%	23.59%
New England Patriots	1.18%	4.83%	14.09%	27.32%	52.58%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Kansas City Chiefs	31.54%	24.18%	19.02%	14.43%	10.83%
Los Angeles Raiders	29.47%	24.40%	19.35%	15.68%	11.10%
Denver Broncos	15.10%	18.64%	20.93%	23.13%	22.20%
San Diego Chargers	14.16%	18.28%	20.86%	22.50%	24.20%
Seattle Seahawks	9.73%	14.50%	19.84%	24.26%	31.67%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	50.78%	24.16%	13.95%	7.54%	3.57%
Minnesota Vikings	22.06%	26.56%	22.24%	16.80%	12.34%
Green Bay Packers	12.31%	19.91%	22.89%	23.46%	21.43%
Detroit Lions	7.29%	15.28%	20.80%	25.97%	30.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.56%	14.09%	20.12%	26.23%	32.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	52.75%	27.36%	13.64%	5.04%	1.21%
Washington Redskins	23.24%	30.51%	27.28%	13.29%	5.68%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.06%	29.96%	29.15%	14.85%	5.98%
Dallas Cowboys	2.18%	6.86%	16.36%	34.01%	40.59%
Phoenix Cardinals	1.77%	5.31%	13.57%	32.81%	46.54%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	74.91%	18.13%	5.57%	1.39%
New Orleans Saints	13.25%	38.33%	30.83%	17.59%
Los Angeles Rams	8.99%	30.42%	36.00%	24.59%
Atlanta Falcons	2.85%	13.12%	27.60%	56.43%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Buffalo Bills	26.38%	17.72%	13.04%	9.63%	8.06%	6.59%	4.92%	4.09%	3.37%	2.20%	1.84%	1.02%	0.76%	0.38%
Miami Dolphins	13.52%	12.43%	11.26%	11.52%	10.48%	8.92%	7.61%	6.44%	5.30%	3.62%	3.50%	2.58%	1.58%	1.24%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.32%	11.69%	10.25%	9.68%	9.31%	7.82%	7.48%	6.86%	6.12%	5.88%	4.38%	4.17%	3.39%	1.65%
Los Angeles Raiders	10.61%	10.78%	9.53%	9.99%	8.64%	8.55%	7.74%	7.21%	5.90%	6.24%	4.94%	4.21%	3.69%	1.97%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.45%	9.68%	10.58%	9.21%	8.97%	9.75%	8.58%	8.37%	6.98%	6.05%	4.85%	4.15%	3.13%	1.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.21%	8.74%	10.31%	9.02%	9.28%	9.89%	8.30%	8.06%	7.26%	6.47%	5.85%	5.00%	3.24%	1.37%
Houston Oilers	6.61%	7.75%	9.11%	9.08%	9.22%	8.91%	8.22%	8.15%	8.26%	6.38%	6.08%	5.64%	4.42%	2.17%
Denver Broncos	4.70%	5.74%	5.98%	7.03%	7.21%	7.30%	8.47%	7.96%	8.32%	8.65%	8.03%	7.74%	7.58%	5.29%
San Diego Chargers	4.17%	5.28%	6.08%	7.23%	6.83%	7.07%	8.16%	8.46%	7.86%	8.48%	8.03%	7.72%	8.90%	5.73%
Seattle Seahawks	2.36%	3.86%	4.50%	5.02%	5.73%	6.59%	7.86%	7.23%	8.42%	9.58%	9.52%	10.03%	10.54%	8.76%
Indianapolis Colts	2.04%	2.62%	3.49%	4.84%	5.86%	6.15%	7.33%	8.25%	9.29%	9.29%	10.73%	10.03%	9.15%	10.93%
New York Jets	1.36%	1.79%	3.03%	3.52%	4.96%	5.48%	6.49%	8.14%	9.07%	9.94%	10.23%	10.94%	11.03%	14.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.05%	1.53%	2.28%	3.28%	4.02%	4.94%	6.03%	6.83%	8.73%	10.14%	11.92%	14.35%	14.70%	10.20%
New England Patriots	0.22%	0.39%	0.56%	0.95%	1.43%	2.04%	2.81%	3.95%	5.12%	7.08%	10.10%	12.42%	17.89%	35.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	38.78%	22.13%	14.00%	8.15%	5.68%	4.07%	2.73%	1.61%	1.19%	0.71%	0.45%	0.37%	0.11%	0.02%
New York Giants	22.19%	19.32%	14.92%	11.86%	8.60%	6.76%	5.04%	3.84%	2.87%	1.86%	1.36%	0.71%	0.38%	0.29%
Chicago Bears	11.26%	15.12%	16.02%	11.57%	10.17%	8.49%	6.57%	5.86%	4.46%	3.60%	2.74%	1.85%	1.57%	0.72%
Washington Redskins	7.66%	9.99%	10.15%	10.75%	10.03%	9.61%	8.88%	8.06%	7.02%	5.60%	4.71%	3.58%	2.19%	1.77%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.78%	8.53%	9.46%	10.86%	10.78%	10.20%	9.59%	8.44%	7.58%	5.78%	4.81%	3.64%	2.71%	1.84%
New Orleans Saints	4.08%	6.29%	7.55%	10.29%	10.62%	10.83%	9.27%	9.05%	8.77%	6.85%	5.73%	5.31%	3.57%	1.79%
Minnesota Vikings	3.31%	5.91%	8.17%	8.61%	9.40%	9.41%	9.15%	9.11%	8.61%	7.58%	6.29%	5.77%	4.92%	3.76%
Los Angeles Rams	2.91%	3.95%	5.47%	8.26%	8.35%	9.39%	9.73%	10.41%	10.04%	8.99%	7.95%	7.42%	4.63%	2.50%
Green Bay Packers	1.45%	3.17%	4.42%	5.58%	7.07%	7.98%	7.93%	9.27%	9.20%	9.28%	9.48%	8.83%	8.92%	7.42%
Detroit Lions	0.64%	1.33%	3.01%	3.76%	5.10%	6.22%	7.37%	7.98%	8.79%	10.05%	10.43%	10.99%	12.79%	11.54%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.76%	1.71%	2.93%	3.61%	4.76%	5.98%	7.33%	7.78%	8.64%	10.32%	10.52%	11.14%	12.88%	11.64%
Atlanta Falcons	0.55%	1.13%	1.66%	3.08%	4.28%	4.76%	6.33%	7.51%	9.17%	10.76%	12.47%	14.40%	13.19%	10.71%
Dallas Cowboys	0.33%	0.80%	1.34%	2.03%	3.10%	3.42%	5.60%	6.04%	7.59%	9.26%	11.49%	12.36%	14.92%	21.72%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.30%	0.62%	0.90%	1.59%	2.06%	2.88%	4.48%	5.04%	6.07%	9.36%	11.57%	13.63%	17.22%	24.28%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	27.63%	15.07%	11.90%	9.00%	7.37%	5.29%	4.23%	3.46%	2.84%	2.32%	2.29%	1.59%	1.45%	1.11%	0.88%	0.80%	0.59%	0.54%	0.47%	0.31%	0.20%	0.18%	0.18%	0.15%	0.08%	0.03%	0.04%	—
New York Giants	15.19%	10.97%	10.41%	8.02%	7.39%	6.60%	6.06%	5.15%	4.32%	3.77%	3.49%	3.24%	2.46%	2.27%	1.83%	1.93%	1.33%	1.15%	0.99%	0.76%	0.80%	0.51%	0.47%	0.25%	0.27%	0.12%	0.15%	0.10%
Buffalo Bills	10.98%	12.53%	9.39%	8.79%	7.15%	6.64%	5.18%	5.40%	4.44%	3.83%	3.17%	3.38%	2.72%	2.82%	2.04%	2.37%	1.55%	1.50%	1.33%	0.91%	1.07%	0.88%	0.47%	0.47%	0.42%	0.29%	0.20%	0.08%
Chicago Bears	7.15%	6.97%	8.07%	7.41%	7.37%	6.63%	5.58%	5.68%	5.07%	4.90%	4.31%	3.81%	3.19%	3.19%	3.25%	2.75%	2.38%	1.93%	2.14%	1.74%	1.19%	1.22%	1.07%	0.88%	0.80%	0.65%	0.44%	0.23%
Miami Dolphins	4.96%	6.79%	6.19%	6.39%	6.10%	6.04%	5.85%	5.81%	5.49%	4.97%	4.58%	4.60%	3.96%	3.70%	3.34%	3.16%	2.92%	2.59%	1.97%	1.83%	2.05%	1.66%	1.46%	0.93%	0.92%	0.64%	0.75%	0.35%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.98%	5.76%	5.17%	6.57%	5.02%	5.74%	4.75%	5.16%	5.08%	4.80%	4.35%	3.96%	4.01%	3.43%	3.52%	3.45%	3.52%	2.94%	3.26%	2.70%	2.17%	1.87%	2.34%	1.89%	1.66%	1.35%	1.01%	0.54%
Washington Redskins	4.37%	4.57%	5.56%	4.66%	5.51%	4.95%	5.40%	4.95%	5.05%	4.83%	4.46%	4.39%	4.55%	4.48%	3.68%	3.81%	3.55%	3.34%	2.75%	2.89%	2.32%	2.34%	2.04%	1.70%	1.13%	1.17%	0.87%	0.68%
Los Angeles Raiders	3.53%	5.18%	5.15%	5.55%	5.42%	4.81%	5.41%	4.87%	4.59%	4.57%	4.64%	4.12%	4.00%	3.86%	3.90%	3.61%	3.38%	3.11%	3.20%	2.66%	2.78%	2.41%	2.20%	2.00%	1.76%	1.58%	1.16%	0.55%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.11%	3.84%	4.32%	4.80%	5.16%	4.57%	5.33%	5.48%	4.75%	5.19%	5.14%	5.30%	4.31%	4.44%	4.28%	4.10%	3.87%	3.42%	2.79%	2.76%	2.49%	2.36%	1.81%	1.83%	1.67%	1.16%	1.03%	0.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.91%	4.04%	4.51%	5.19%	4.86%	5.51%	4.48%	5.36%	4.72%	4.53%	4.56%	5.07%	4.49%	4.68%	4.21%	3.90%	3.50%	3.79%	3.33%	2.88%	2.31%	2.36%	2.40%	1.84%	1.49%	1.57%	0.84%	0.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.38%	3.63%	3.89%	4.65%	4.50%	5.09%	4.72%	5.08%	4.71%	5.02%	4.70%	4.83%	4.39%	4.44%	4.14%	3.82%	3.90%	3.77%	3.34%	3.47%	3.10%	2.62%	2.75%	2.19%	1.78%	1.53%	0.99%	0.57%
New Orleans Saints	2.15%	2.82%	3.75%	3.23%	3.99%	4.28%	4.72%	4.88%	5.01%	5.22%	4.64%	5.22%	4.45%	4.64%	4.37%	4.36%	4.03%	4.33%	3.33%	3.44%	2.89%	2.93%	2.89%	2.52%	1.99%	1.88%	1.22%	0.82%
Houston Oilers	2.29%	3.27%	3.48%	3.93%	4.17%	4.74%	4.49%	4.72%	5.00%	4.57%	4.67%	4.15%	4.17%	4.22%	4.22%	4.11%	4.31%	3.91%	3.62%	3.40%	2.94%	3.09%	2.83%	2.85%	2.29%	2.22%	1.29%	1.05%
Minnesota Vikings	1.81%	2.21%	2.93%	3.17%	4.05%	3.71%	4.23%	4.29%	4.58%	4.45%	4.52%	4.89%	4.97%	4.27%	4.58%	4.05%	4.30%	4.42%	3.69%	3.63%	3.20%	3.44%	2.91%	3.19%	2.42%	2.37%	2.01%	1.71%
Los Angeles Rams	1.44%	1.81%	2.35%	2.23%	3.00%	2.95%	4.37%	3.53%	4.24%	3.92%	4.62%	4.57%	4.54%	4.76%	4.80%	4.91%	4.56%	5.08%	4.30%	4.45%	4.17%	4.01%	3.66%	3.46%	2.86%	2.35%	1.61%	1.45%
Denver Broncos	1.31%	2.39%	2.62%	2.83%	3.15%	3.33%	3.44%	3.62%	3.73%	3.72%	4.13%	3.71%	4.30%	4.26%	4.70%	3.93%	3.88%	4.36%	4.59%	4.07%	4.09%	4.20%	3.90%	3.93%	3.68%	3.16%	2.65%	2.32%
San Diego Chargers	1.18%	1.94%	2.32%	2.82%	2.80%	3.45%	3.35%	3.80%	3.59%	3.93%	3.81%	3.79%	3.96%	4.11%	4.35%	4.64%	4.17%	3.96%	4.49%	3.96%	4.24%	4.13%	3.74%	3.96%	4.36%	3.77%	3.04%	2.34%
Green Bay Packers	0.80%	0.97%	1.66%	1.70%	2.09%	2.39%	2.85%	2.58%	3.28%	3.62%	3.81%	3.80%	3.99%	4.43%	4.30%	4.42%	4.85%	4.35%	4.52%	4.51%	5.07%	5.14%	4.25%	4.29%	4.83%	4.05%	4.03%	3.42%
Seattle Seahawks	0.60%	1.25%	1.49%	2.21%	2.00%	2.48%	2.48%	2.65%	2.94%	3.06%	3.57%	3.41%	3.93%	3.46%	4.00%	4.15%	4.45%	4.31%	4.84%	4.59%	5.25%	4.66%	5.07%	4.98%	4.71%	5.33%	4.48%	3.65%
Indianapolis Colts	0.58%	1.05%	1.00%	1.49%	1.53%	1.91%	2.42%	2.35%	2.96%	3.16%	2.89%	3.64%	3.47%	3.64%	4.14%	4.19%	4.29%	5.09%	4.51%	5.40%	4.77%	5.39%	5.21%	5.20%	4.53%	4.93%	5.23%	5.03%
Detroit Lions	0.26%	0.49%	0.67%	0.79%	1.38%	1.52%	2.08%	1.98%	2.26%	2.46%	3.36%	3.11%	3.60%	3.51%	3.92%	3.69%	4.45%	4.24%	4.93%	5.16%	5.22%	4.99%	5.67%	5.92%	6.10%	6.61%	6.14%	5.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.37%	0.46%	0.68%	1.05%	1.34%	1.82%	1.77%	1.74%	2.00%	2.63%	2.84%	3.20%	3.47%	3.64%	3.99%	4.27%	4.13%	4.32%	4.97%	5.24%	5.23%	5.10%	5.93%	5.44%	6.45%	6.01%	6.53%	5.38%
New York Jets	0.25%	0.62%	0.69%	1.05%	1.42%	1.71%	1.74%	1.87%	2.16%	2.62%	2.74%	2.99%	3.07%	3.81%	3.71%	4.13%	4.53%	4.51%	5.25%	5.00%	5.21%	5.15%	5.65%	5.31%	6.28%	5.52%	6.61%	6.40%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.21%	0.49%	0.51%	0.87%	0.91%	1.26%	1.49%	1.62%	2.16%	2.05%	2.17%	2.38%	3.42%	3.13%	3.28%	3.54%	4.21%	4.45%	4.97%	5.37%	6.03%	6.00%	6.33%	7.26%	6.33%	7.86%	5.87%	5.83%
Atlanta Falcons	0.27%	0.38%	0.52%	0.65%	0.96%	1.00%	1.51%	1.57%	1.97%	2.04%	2.59%	2.33%	3.01%	3.18%	3.61%	3.61%	4.49%	4.86%	4.75%	5.03%	5.81%	6.29%	6.21%	6.92%	6.72%	6.77%	6.31%	6.64%
Dallas Cowboys	0.15%	0.17%	0.36%	0.48%	0.70%	0.76%	0.99%	1.06%	1.50%	1.66%	1.82%	1.87%	2.61%	2.62%	3.01%	3.23%	3.42%	4.02%	4.11%	4.88%	5.27%	5.76%	6.20%	6.27%	7.64%	8.12%	10.11%	11.21%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.11%	0.24%	0.29%	0.31%	0.45%	0.53%	0.69%	0.78%	0.93%	1.29%	1.36%	1.57%	2.01%	2.44%	2.19%	2.85%	2.93%	3.14%	4.06%	5.23%	5.24%	6.21%	6.27%	7.11%	8.57%	8.93%	11.04%	13.23%
New England Patriots	0.03%	0.09%	0.12%	0.16%	0.21%	0.29%	0.39%	0.56%	0.63%	0.87%	0.77%	1.08%	1.50%	1.46%	1.76%	2.22%	2.51%	2.57%	3.50%	3.73%	4.89%	5.10%	6.09%	7.26%	8.26%	10.03%	14.35%	19.57%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	26.38%	16.91%	11.00%	11.83%	8.76%	6.52%	18.60%
Miami Dolphins	13.52%	11.00%	7.70%	14.98%	11.74%	9.15%	31.91%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.32%	11.74%	8.48%	10.01%	10.20%	8.21%	40.04%
Los Angeles Raiders	10.61%	10.98%	7.88%	10.62%	9.05%	8.58%	42.28%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.45%	10.26%	14.88%	7.02%	7.50%	9.06%	42.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.21%	9.41%	14.60%	6.68%	7.86%	9.26%	44.98%
Houston Oilers	6.61%	8.65%	13.61%	6.23%	7.84%	8.22%	48.84%
Denver Broncos	4.70%	5.74%	4.66%	7.23%	7.79%	7.51%	62.37%
San Diego Chargers	4.17%	5.25%	4.74%	7.72%	7.20%	7.34%	63.58%
Seattle Seahawks	2.36%	3.74%	3.63%	5.29%	5.87%	6.92%	72.19%
Indianapolis Colts	2.04%	2.37%	2.63%	5.27%	6.04%	6.43%	75.22%
New York Jets	1.36%	1.82%	2.09%	3.76%	5.09%	5.89%	79.99%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.05%	1.73%	3.54%	2.58%	3.60%	4.78%	82.72%
New England Patriots	0.22%	0.40%	0.56%	0.78%	1.46%	2.13%	94.45%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	38.78%	22.85%	13.28%	8.45%	5.59%	3.91%	7.14%
New York Giants	22.19%	18.86%	11.70%	14.64%	9.17%	7.05%	16.39%
Chicago Bears	11.26%	16.49%	23.03%	6.23%	7.97%	7.82%	27.20%
Washington Redskins	7.66%	9.23%	6.35%	13.74%	11.17%	9.95%	41.90%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.78%	8.25%	6.03%	12.66%	12.29%	10.51%	44.48%
New Orleans Saints	4.08%	5.05%	4.12%	13.08%	12.17%	11.09%	50.41%
Minnesota Vikings	3.31%	6.44%	12.31%	5.89%	8.02%	8.93%	55.10%
Los Angeles Rams	2.91%	3.29%	2.79%	10.00%	9.37%	9.90%	61.74%
Green Bay Packers	1.45%	3.63%	7.23%	3.75%	6.06%	7.56%	70.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.76%	1.96%	4.84%	2.17%	4.32%	5.78%	80.17%
Detroit Lions	0.64%	1.63%	5.02%	2.55%	4.33%	6.01%	79.82%
Atlanta Falcons	0.55%	0.95%	1.35%	3.10%	4.53%	4.92%	84.60%
Dallas Cowboys	0.33%	0.73%	1.12%	2.25%	2.89%	3.65%	89.03%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.30%	0.64%	0.83%	1.49%	2.12%	2.92%	91.70%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	83.38%	83.38%	58.60%	37.74%	22.62%
Buffalo Bills	68.90%	68.90%	45.12%	28.35%	15.83%
New York Giants	69.62%	69.62%	41.90%	23.19%	13.03%
Miami Dolphins	49.30%	49.30%	25.78%	13.73%	6.69%
Kansas City Chiefs	44.13%	44.13%	24.00%	12.52%	5.96%
Los Angeles Raiders	42.29%	42.29%	23.26%	12.03%	5.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	41.49%	37.89%	18.67%	8.32%	4.39%
Washington Redskins	41.21%	40.38%	19.80%	8.68%	4.38%
Chicago Bears	52.54%	52.54%	22.94%	9.26%	4.03%
Houston Oilers	35.90%	35.47%	17.53%	8.25%	3.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.40%	35.27%	16.24%	7.21%	3.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	38.46%	38.03%	16.70%	6.85%	2.68%
New Orleans Saints	40.46%	27.28%	10.69%	4.36%	1.83%
Minnesota Vikings	35.15%	26.43%	9.90%	3.50%	1.51%
Seattle Seahawks	21.71%	16.49%	7.16%	2.82%	1.08%
San Diego Chargers	27.00%	20.93%	8.14%	2.94%	0.99%
Denver Broncos	27.19%	21.03%	7.59%	2.73%	0.75%
Los Angeles Rams	32.06%	18.01%	5.62%	1.71%	0.51%
Indianapolis Colts	20.37%	12.07%	4.66%	1.56%	0.43%
Green Bay Packers	24.60%	13.75%	3.54%	1.04%	0.37%
Detroit Lions	17.91%	9.22%	2.87%	0.92%	0.29%
New York Jets	16.83%	8.29%	2.33%	0.75%	0.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17.11%	8.16%	2.01%	0.52%	0.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	14.50%	6.37%	1.34%	0.24%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	13.90%	5.76%	1.53%	0.34%	0.07%
Dallas Cowboys	9.91%	4.39%	1.16%	0.25%	0.04%
Phoenix Cardinals	7.36%	3.19%	0.77%	0.17%	0.03%
New England Patriots	4.93%	1.43%	0.15%	0.02%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		2.26%	1.38%	2.58%	2.05%	1.52%	2.77%	2.50%	2.27%	0.40%	1.42%	2.40%	2.48%	1.58%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.37%		0.98%	1.66%	1.84%	1.26%	1.68%	1.50%	1.70%	0.50%	1.45%	2.46%	1.54%	1.38%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.23%	0.40%		0.30%	0.25%	0.28%	0.33%	0.33%	0.33%	0.15%	0.23%	0.29%	0.23%	0.24%
Denver Broncos	0.91%	1.29%	0.65%		0.93%	0.76%	0.72%	0.72%	1.06%	0.34%	0.59%	1.52%	0.64%	0.46%
Houston Oilers	1.25%	2.35%	1.21%	1.55%		1.28%	1.43%	1.69%	2.27%	0.49%	1.24%	2.36%	1.72%	1.37%
Indianapolis Colts	0.44%	0.82%	0.50%	0.80%	0.55%		0.69%	0.78%	0.59%	0.16%	0.24%	0.85%	0.71%	0.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.81%	2.00%	1.19%	1.62%	1.62%	1.48%		1.74%	2.79%	0.38%	1.61%	2.14%	1.50%	1.19%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.63%	2.08%	1.16%	1.47%	1.83%	1.47%	1.75%		2.79%	0.40%	1.31%	2.25%	1.59%	0.97%
Miami Dolphins	1.52%	2.60%	1.18%	2.64%	2.02%	1.32%	2.81%	2.57%		0.33%	1.13%	2.41%	2.58%	1.67%
New England Patriots	0.03%	0.13%	0.05%	0.05%	0.10%	0.02%	0.06%	0.06%	0.07%		0.04%	0.08%	0.06%	0.06%
New York Jets	0.30%	0.64%	0.32%	0.49%	0.57%	0.18%	0.51%	0.40%	0.38%	0.08%		0.59%	0.41%	0.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.26%	2.22%	0.99%	1.85%	1.72%	1.51%	1.52%	1.59%	1.83%	0.36%	1.20%		1.44%	1.16%
San Diego Chargers	0.92%	1.18%	0.62%	0.81%	1.33%	0.89%	0.79%	0.81%	1.40%	0.25%	0.63%	1.41%		0.47%
Seattle Seahawks	0.83%	1.17%	0.68%	0.78%	0.88%	0.74%	0.77%	0.74%	1.31%	0.28%	0.63%	0.99%	0.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.52%	0.13%	0.19%	0.47%	0.15%	0.49%	0.34%	0.37%	0.47%	0.07%	0.27%	0.24%	0.55%
Chicago Bears	1.24%		0.86%	1.71%	2.60%	2.77%	3.00%	2.69%	1.59%	2.13%	0.83%	0.86%	2.00%	2.51%
Dallas Cowboys	0.15%	0.41%		0.19%	0.32%	0.33%	0.38%	0.38%	0.20%	0.14%	0.01%	0.26%	0.28%	0.28%
Detroit Lions	0.28%	1.08%	0.31%		0.40%	0.58%	0.57%	0.84%	0.52%	0.67%	0.27%	0.39%	0.46%	0.58%
Green Bay Packers	0.57%	1.33%	0.36%	0.37%		1.00%	0.68%	1.06%	0.55%	0.86%	0.29%	0.31%	0.51%	0.78%
Los Angeles Rams	0.30%	1.42%	0.45%	0.68%	1.08%		1.27%	1.09%	1.12%	1.44%	0.44%	0.61%	0.67%	1.24%
Minnesota Vikings	0.83%	2.62%	0.68%	0.80%	1.47%	1.66%		1.83%	1.31%	1.57%	0.52%	0.84%	0.90%	1.65%
New Orleans Saints	0.72%	2.12%	0.78%	0.97%	1.37%	1.51%	1.94%		1.93%	2.17%	0.60%	0.98%	1.00%	2.06%
New York Giants	1.46%	2.69%	1.03%	1.67%	2.09%	3.35%	2.96%	4.00%		2.97%	0.55%	1.64%	1.50%	2.66%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.21%	2.67%	0.53%	1.42%	1.83%	2.87%	2.25%	3.67%	2.04%		0.37%	1.44%	1.35%	2.21%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.11%	0.30%	0.05%	0.21%	0.21%	0.25%	0.20%	0.25%	0.16%	0.10%		0.09%	0.15%	0.17%
San Francisco 49ers	1.05%	1.78%	0.74%	1.16%	1.59%	2.28%	1.93%	2.45%	1.90%	2.49%	0.56%		1.29%	2.53%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.30%	0.65%	0.19%	0.25%	0.51%	0.61%	0.50%	0.51%	0.40%	0.55%	0.23%	0.24%		0.50%
Washington Redskins	1.42%	2.67%	0.47%	1.34%	1.99%	2.89%	2.30%	3.20%	1.90%	2.07%	0.37%	1.55%	1.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		5.25%	1.05%	3.04%	4.67%	1.91%	4.98%	4.74%	7.96%	0.27%	1.42%	4.57%	3.01%	2.25%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.55%		0.35%	1.28%	1.33%	0.59%	2.06%	1.93%	1.93%	0.19%	0.58%	1.63%	1.48%	0.80%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.12%	0.12%		0.10%	0.08%	0.07%	0.12%	0.21%	0.15%		0.05%	0.07%	0.13%	0.12%
Denver Broncos	1.08%	0.77%	0.24%		0.85%	0.30%	0.74%	0.75%	0.90%	0.05%	0.27%	0.81%	0.48%	0.35%
Houston Oilers	2.80%	1.62%	0.30%	1.29%		0.57%	2.19%	1.90%	2.34%	0.09%	0.51%	1.73%	1.31%	0.88%
Indianapolis Colts	0.87%	0.50%	0.14%	0.27%	0.49%		0.37%	0.45%	0.44%		0.13%	0.51%	0.35%	0.14%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.23%	3.10%	0.82%	1.80%	2.51%	0.98%		3.04%	3.18%	0.10%	0.54%	2.44%	1.22%	1.04%
Los Angeles Raiders	2.89%	3.29%	0.63%	1.48%	2.47%	0.85%	3.05%		2.57%	0.21%	0.63%	2.63%	1.55%	1.01%
Miami Dolphins	5.40%	2.76%	0.58%	1.86%	2.63%	0.85%	2.76%	2.52%		0.15%	0.72%	2.56%	1.68%	1.31%
New England Patriots		0.02%		0.03%	0.02%		0.02%		0.02%		0.01%	0.03%
New York Jets	0.38%	0.31%	0.10%	0.12%	0.16%	0.06%	0.23%	0.22%	0.25%			0.22%	0.17%	0.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.48%	1.65%	0.39%	0.99%	1.20%	0.73%	2.04%	1.83%	2.08%	0.14%	0.51%		1.13%	1.07%
San Diego Chargers	0.98%	1.14%	0.21%	0.68%	0.94%	0.22%	0.90%	0.72%	0.82%	0.06%	0.34%	0.88%		0.25%
Seattle Seahawks	1.00%	0.80%	0.22%	0.50%	0.59%	0.28%	0.67%	0.72%	0.88%	0.02%	0.25%	0.95%	0.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.27%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.05%	0.14%	0.06%	0.24%	0.07%		0.40%	0.08%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	0.53%		0.44%	0.53%	1.00%	1.61%	1.62%	1.99%	4.61%	2.79%	0.41%	4.18%	0.51%	2.72%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.21%		0.05%	0.07%	0.05%	0.12%	0.08%	0.18%	0.07%	0.02%	0.16%	0.04%	0.09%
Detroit Lions	0.06%	0.42%	0.02%		0.05%	0.18%	0.10%	0.23%	0.53%	0.20%	0.02%	0.65%	0.06%	0.35%
Green Bay Packers	0.06%	0.39%	0.02%	0.06%		0.22%	0.17%	0.28%	0.75%	0.38%	0.04%	0.67%	0.07%	0.43%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	0.93%	0.05%	0.17%	0.31%		0.41%	0.33%	0.91%	0.44%	0.05%	1.31%	0.14%	0.50%
Minnesota Vikings	0.18%	1.21%	0.21%	0.15%	0.32%	0.68%		0.89%	1.75%	0.93%	0.11%	2.16%	0.16%	1.15%
New Orleans Saints	0.16%	1.75%	0.12%	0.29%	0.57%	0.46%	0.88%		1.67%	0.91%	0.10%	2.55%	0.34%	0.89%
New York Giants	0.94%	7.31%	0.74%	1.75%	2.63%	2.41%	4.35%	3.21%		4.99%	0.50%	6.07%	1.27%	5.73%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.31%	3.45%	0.22%	0.48%	1.01%	0.93%	1.53%	1.30%	3.79%		0.10%	3.25%	0.64%	1.66%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.02%	0.13%		0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	0.02%	0.11%	0.06%		0.18%	0.05%	0.05%
San Francisco 49ers	1.47%	10.12%	1.14%	2.11%	3.03%	4.54%	5.52%	6.71%	7.96%	6.45%	0.83%		2.08%	6.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.08%	0.22%	0.07%	0.01%	0.05%	0.10%	0.08%	0.17%	0.39%	0.27%	0.01%	0.32%		0.24%
Washington Redskins	0.33%	3.19%	0.19%	0.72%	1.06%	1.11%	1.57%	1.32%	4.83%	1.66%	0.23%	2.88%	0.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		3.44%	0.38%	1.64%	3.32%	0.54%	4.62%	4.45%	2.81%	0.03%	0.42%	3.07%	2.00%	1.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.91%		0.04%	0.44%	0.37%	0.23%	1.01%	0.64%	1.14%	0.02%	0.08%	0.36%	0.35%	0.26%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.05%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.52%	0.31%			0.33%	0.16%	0.22%	0.19%	0.52%	0.01%	0.04%	0.23%	0.10%	0.10%
Houston Oilers	1.93%	0.50%	0.04%	0.51%		0.32%	1.04%	1.13%	1.36%	0.01%	0.21%	0.42%	0.41%	0.37%
Indianapolis Colts	0.14%	0.15%	0.03%	0.12%	0.17%		0.17%	0.30%	0.09%			0.23%	0.11%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.15%	1.37%	0.14%	0.45%	1.30%	0.55%		1.08%	2.11%	0.01%	0.20%	1.35%	0.39%	0.42%
Los Angeles Raiders	3.24%	1.34%	0.19%	0.40%	1.19%	0.48%	0.95%		1.95%	0.05%	0.29%	1.13%	0.42%	0.40%
Miami Dolphins	2.16%	1.67%	0.14%	0.68%	1.55%	0.31%	2.02%	1.93%			0.11%	1.56%	0.95%	0.65%
New England Patriots					0.01%							0.01%
New York Jets	0.10%	0.07%		0.09%	0.07%	0.01%	0.05%	0.09%	0.04%			0.11%	0.04%	0.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.04%	0.43%	0.08%	0.36%	0.43%	0.26%	1.01%	0.84%	1.04%		0.11%		0.33%	0.28%
San Diego Chargers	0.78%	0.24%	0.01%	0.07%	0.26%	0.14%	0.23%	0.24%	0.55%		0.04%	0.29%		0.09%
Seattle Seahawks	0.75%	0.31%	0.05%	0.09%	0.27%	0.08%	0.13%	0.30%	0.41%		0.07%	0.27%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.07%				0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.09%	0.05%		0.01%	0.01%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.06%		0.13%	0.11%	0.11%	0.33%	0.42%	0.69%	2.05%	1.02%	0.08%	3.06%	0.16%	1.04%
Dallas Cowboys		0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.06%		0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.02%	0.06%	0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.07%	0.19%	0.10%	0.02%	0.27%	0.01%	0.11%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%	0.08%	0.01%	0.02%		0.08%	0.05%	0.06%	0.23%	0.13%	0.01%	0.26%	0.01%	0.09%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	0.21%		0.06%	0.05%		0.12%	0.05%	0.41%	0.17%		0.31%	0.04%	0.27%
Minnesota Vikings	0.06%	0.42%	0.03%	0.07%	0.05%	0.18%		0.19%	0.74%	0.35%	0.01%	1.04%	0.04%	0.32%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.59%	0.01%	0.11%	0.07%	0.08%	0.23%		1.24%	0.58%	0.02%	0.74%	0.07%	0.59%
New York Giants	0.39%	3.34%	0.17%	0.51%	0.69%	1.37%	1.77%	2.03%		1.80%	0.12%	8.72%	0.35%	1.93%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.15%	1.26%	0.04%	0.10%	0.25%	0.39%	0.53%	0.62%	1.13%		0.06%	2.93%	0.14%	0.72%
Phoenix Cardinals		0.02%				0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%		0.07%	0.01%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	0.29%	6.57%	0.44%	0.78%	0.97%	1.06%	2.59%	1.83%	11.13%	5.43%	0.22%		0.51%	5.92%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.03%				0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.13%	0.09%		0.13%		0.06%
Washington Redskins	0.15%	1.01%	0.07%	0.18%	0.28%	0.37%	0.58%	0.70%	1.29%	0.60%	0.05%	3.26%	0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.02%		0.02%			0.01%					0.01%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.08%		1.64%			0.05%		0.23%	0.28%					0.34%		0.80%		0.73%	3.73%		1.33%	0.04%			4.79%		0.09%	1.70%
Chicago Bears		0.98%		0.21%	0.01%		0.19%			0.34%	0.12%	0.52%	0.61%		0.43%					0.07%			0.31%	0.17%		0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%		0.33%			0.02%		0.04%	0.04%					0.06%		0.16%		0.13%	0.54%		0.23%				0.82%			0.29%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			0.02%																		0.03%				0.01%			0.02%
Dallas Cowboys		0.01%		0.03%
Denver Broncos	0.01%		0.08%					0.02%						0.04%		0.01%		0.04%	0.10%		0.07%				0.31%		0.02%	0.05%
Detroit Lions		0.11%		0.04%						0.02%	0.01%	0.04%			0.03%								0.01%	0.02%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers		0.09%		0.01%			0.01%			0.04%		0.06%	0.05%		0.04%								0.04%	0.01%		0.02%
Houston Oilers	0.02%		0.47%			0.02%		0.06%	0.05%					0.12%		0.11%		0.11%	0.71%		0.33%	0.01%			1.12%		0.01%	0.30%
Indianapolis Colts			0.05%													0.01%		0.01%	0.07%		0.04%				0.19%			0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.02%		0.66%			0.03%		0.08%	0.04%					0.18%		0.19%		0.35%	1.36%		0.55%	0.02%			2.03%		0.06%	0.39%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.03%		0.65%			0.02%		0.05%	0.11%					0.10%		0.23%		0.38%	1.19%		0.28%	0.01%			1.93%		0.08%	0.45%
Los Angeles Rams		0.20%		0.03%			0.02%			0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%		0.06%								0.05%	0.03%		0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.07%		0.74%			0.02%		0.09%	0.07%					0.22%		0.16%		0.42%	1.36%		0.63%	0.02%			2.27%		0.07%	0.55%
Minnesota Vikings		0.37%		0.11%	0.01%		0.05%			0.19%	0.08%	0.14%	0.15%		0.19%		0.01%			0.02%			0.10%	0.02%		0.07%
New Orleans Saints		0.49%		0.11%	0.01%		0.04%			0.07%	0.05%	0.26%	0.30%		0.23%					0.03%			0.16%	0.06%		0.02%
New York Giants		2.97%		0.95%	0.03%		0.50%			1.20%	0.26%	1.55%	1.61%		1.82%					0.15%			1.13%	0.48%		0.38%
New York Jets			0.03%											0.03%					0.03%						0.07%			0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles		1.00%		0.37%	0.04%		0.16%			0.39%	0.08%	0.50%	0.53%		0.61%					0.06%			0.30%	0.20%		0.15%
Phoenix Cardinals				0.01%						0.01%																0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.01%		0.33%			0.02%		0.04%	0.04%					0.08%		0.19%		0.21%	0.66%		0.30%	0.03%			0.91%		0.03%	0.28%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%		0.12%			0.02%		0.02%	0.01%					0.02%		0.04%		0.08%	0.18%		0.10%				0.29%		0.01%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers		5.02%		1.91%	0.04%		0.89%			2.18%	0.42%	2.92%	2.81%		3.01%		0.01%			0.19%			1.59%	0.78%		0.85%
Seattle Seahawks			0.11%			0.01%			0.03%					0.01%		0.09%		0.07%	0.23%		0.04%	0.01%			0.38%		0.02%	0.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.05%		0.01%						0.01%		0.02%	0.01%		0.01%								0.01%			0.01%
Washington Redskins		1.21%		0.36%	0.02%		0.11%			0.34%	0.10%	0.51%	0.39%		0.61%					0.03%			0.38%	0.18%		0.14%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	69.62%	45.34%	26.11%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	65.96%	43.95%	22.18%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New York Giants	100.00%	65.62%	29.49%	14.93%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Raiders	100.00%	62.03%	25.17%	11.09%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	60.94%	22.16%	9.56%	5.02%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins	58.11%	22.38%	9.91%	4.39%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	41.89%	16.84%	8.12%	3.88%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	47.91%	15.51%	6.62%	3.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Washington Redskins	39.06%	13.28%	5.61%	2.96%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	60.54%	19.01%	6.75%	2.74%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	52.09%	17.28%	6.23%	2.33%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New Orleans Saints	39.46%	10.31%	3.25%	1.37%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals		52.09%
Houston Oilers	47.91%
Kansas City Chiefs				41.89%
Miami Dolphins			58.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		60.54%
New Orleans Saints	39.46%
Philadelphia Eagles				60.94%
Washington Redskins			39.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills			32.40%	13.84%		19.72%
Cincinnati Bengals					17.28%
Houston Oilers	15.51%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.02%				8.82%
Los Angeles Raiders		34.81%		11.21%		16.01%
Miami Dolphins	10.51%				11.87%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears			19.01%
New Orleans Saints					10.31%
New York Giants	41.53%			14.14%		9.95%
Philadelphia Eagles			9.84%		12.32%
San Francisco 49ers		29.15%		24.64%		15.83%
Washington Redskins			5.53%		7.75%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills		8.00%		3.51%	27.32%	5.12%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.11%			1.45%		1.67%
Houston Oilers				1.05%	3.79%	1.78%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.43%	1.32%	1.83%		2.54%
Los Angeles Raiders	13.51%		5.05%	2.71%		3.90%
Miami Dolphins	2.96%	1.73%	2.01%		3.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				1.83%	3.75%	1.17%
New Orleans Saints			2.00%	0.85%		0.40%
New York Giants		4.55%		4.97%	16.50%	3.47%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.77%	1.64%	3.75%		2.40%
San Francisco 49ers	9.25%		28.51%	4.95%		2.63%
Washington Redskins	1.24%	0.87%	1.87%		1.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Buffalo Bills		1.86%						0.95%	6.97%	2.10%	9.06%	1.24%
Chicago Bears	1.09%		0.16%	0.19%	0.17%	0.82%	0.31%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.19%						0.08%	0.66%	0.22%	1.02%	0.16%
Houston Oilers		0.27%						0.16%	0.92%	0.29%	1.21%	0.15%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.33%						0.14%	1.21%	0.46%	1.57%	0.17%
Los Angeles Raiders		0.90%						0.43%	3.38%	1.13%	4.59%	0.66%
Miami Dolphins		0.46%						0.12%	1.42%	0.34%	1.78%	0.27%
New Orleans Saints	0.51%		0.07%	0.14%	0.13%	0.38%	0.14%
New York Giants	6.28%		1.22%	0.94%	1.15%	3.83%	1.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.02%		0.41%	0.35%	0.46%	1.21%	0.57%
San Francisco 49ers	10.66%		1.80%	1.76%	2.09%	7.06%	2.74%
Washington Redskins	1.21%		0.24%	0.24%	0.24%	0.78%	0.25%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 26.11% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

41.87%

Win Prob

73.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

62.88%

Win Prob

63.34%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.83%

Win Prob

54.06%

Buffalo Bills 22.18% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

49.12%

Win Prob

67.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

62.16%

Win Prob

66.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.85%

Win Prob

45.94%

New York Giants 14.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

63.29%

Win Prob

68.60%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

55.95%

Win Prob

36.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

42.06%

Win Prob

47.40%

Los Angeles Raiders 11.09% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

56.12%

Win Prob

66.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

53.68%

Win Prob

33.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.39%

Win Prob

39.40%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.94%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

55.60%

Win Prob

33.33%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

39.23%

Win Prob

43.00%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.24%

Win Prob

49.03%

Miami Dolphins 4.39% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.11%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

53.04%

Win Prob

42.58%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

32.39%

Win Prob

45.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.55%

Win Prob

39.38%

Kansas City Chiefs 3.88% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.89%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

52.38%

Win Prob

44.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

31.28%

Win Prob

48.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.46%

Win Prob

42.90%

Houston Oilers 3.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.91%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

57.25%

Win Prob

42.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.33%

Win Prob

40.74%

Washington Redskins 2.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.06%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.36%

Win Prob

32.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

33.33%

Win Prob

35.02%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.88%

Win Prob

49.39%

Chicago Bears 2.74% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.54%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.40%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

55.56%

Win Prob

28.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

39.78%

Win Prob

36.95%

Cincinnati Bengals 2.33% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.09%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

49.92%

Win Prob

27.99%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.78%

Win Prob

36.17%

New Orleans Saints 1.37% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.46%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

61.54%

Win Prob

30.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

37.23%

Win Prob

34.93%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1990-09-09	Houston Oilers	W 47-27	1440.95	1496.59	50.43%	49.31%	+24.08	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1465.03	1448.52	43.72%	56.03%	-12.63	1-1
1990-09-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-19	1452.40	1609.55	22.23%	77.52%	-5.95	1-2
1990-10-07	New Orleans Saints	W 28-27	1446.45	1522.32	47.52%	52.22%	+5.70	2-2
1990-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 35-45	1452.15	1623.35	34.34%	65.40%	-11.87	2-3
1990-10-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-44	1440.28	1497.40	33.70%	66.04%	-16.47	2-4
1990-10-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-17	1423.81	1550.19	40.37%	59.37%	+29.70	3-4
1990-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-21	1453.51	1521.59	32.31%	67.44%	-12.23	3-5
1990-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-30	1441.28	1595.90	22.48%	77.26%	-6.02	3-6
1990-11-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1435.26	1548.20	42.25%	57.50%	-4.62	3-7
1990-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-10	1430.64	1506.59	31.33%	68.42%	-5.93	3-8
1990-12-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-23	1424.71	1384.07	47.16%	52.59%	-12.61	3-9
1990-12-09	Phoenix Cardinals	L 13-24	1412.10	1405.68	59.25%	40.50%	-21.45	3-10
1990-12-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1390.65	1354.21	46.56%	53.19%	-8.80	3-11
1990-12-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-13	1381.85	1482.48	43.99%	55.76%	+16.10	4-11
1990-12-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-7	1397.95	1441.97	52.10%	47.64%	+22.68	5-11
1990-09-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-10	1527.99	1507.55	61.17%	38.57%	+16.86	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-30	1544.85	1492.23	48.88%	50.87%	-25.60	1-1
1990-09-24	@ New York Jets	W 30-7	1519.25	1455.64	50.46%	49.28%	+25.81	2-1
1990-09-30	Denver Broncos	W 29-28	1545.06	1535.66	59.66%	40.09%	+4.38	3-1
1990-10-07	Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-24	1549.44	1554.74	57.61%	42.14%	+17.22	4-1
1990-10-21	New York Jets	W 30-27	1566.66	1415.96	76.87%	22.88%	+4.33	5-1
1990-10-28	@ New England Patriots	W 27-10	1570.99	1392.38	66.36%	33.39%	+15.04	6-1
1990-11-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-0	1586.03	1448.74	60.88%	38.87%	+27.52	7-1
1990-11-11	Phoenix Cardinals	W 45-14	1613.55	1396.27	82.93%	16.82%	+10.24	8-1
1990-11-18	New England Patriots	W 14-0	1623.79	1353.97	86.74%	13.00%	+5.32	9-1
1990-11-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-27	1629.11	1525.85	56.13%	43.61%	-10.61	9-2
1990-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-23	1618.50	1579.15	63.72%	36.03%	+10.41	10-2
1990-12-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-7	1628.91	1459.55	65.16%	34.58%	+18.51	11-2
1990-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 17-13	1647.42	1636.35	42.95%	56.80%	+12.40	12-2
1990-12-23	Miami Dolphins	W 24-14	1659.82	1587.91	67.92%	31.83%	+11.00	13-2
1990-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-29	1670.82	1556.55	57.68%	42.06%	-24.38	13-3
1990-09-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-0	1491.94	1480.93	59.88%	39.87%	+17.95	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-13	1509.89	1508.49	41.59%	58.16%	+26.93	2-0
1990-09-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-16	1536.82	1547.67	56.83%	42.92%	+8.12	3-0
1990-09-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-24	1544.94	1537.40	42.45%	57.29%	-17.35	3-1
1990-10-07	Green Bay Packers	W 27-13	1527.59	1469.80	66.13%	33.62%	+13.75	4-1
1990-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-9	1541.34	1520.02	61.29%	38.45%	+22.62	5-1
1990-10-28	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-21	1563.96	1420.10	61.77%	37.98%	+13.12	6-1
1990-11-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-6	1577.08	1437.24	61.22%	38.52%	+18.82	7-1
1990-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1595.90	1441.28	77.26%	22.48%	+6.02	8-1
1990-11-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1601.92	1487.84	57.66%	42.09%	+7.96	9-1
1990-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-41	1609.88	1515.00	54.94%	44.80%	-31.74	9-2
1990-12-02	Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1578.14	1458.61	73.55%	26.20%	+7.02	10-2
1990-12-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-10	1585.16	1558.16	45.21%	54.54%	-4.94	10-3
1990-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-38	1580.22	1438.53	61.48%	38.27%	-27.66	10-4
1990-12-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1552.56	1421.60	74.80%	24.94%	+9.83	11-4
1990-12-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-21	1562.39	1567.92	57.58%	42.17%	-20.84	11-5
1990-09-09	New York Jets	W 25-20	1530.08	1452.91	68.57%	31.18%	+7.61	1-0
1990-09-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-16	1537.69	1470.09	51.04%	48.71%	+11.90	2-0
1990-09-23	New England Patriots	W 41-7	1549.59	1472.17	68.60%	31.14%	+19.84	3-0
1990-10-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-31	1569.43	1445.77	59.00%	40.75%	-24.94	3-1
1990-10-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-31	1544.49	1530.68	43.33%	56.41%	+10.67	4-1
1990-10-14	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-48	1555.16	1489.08	50.82%	48.93%	-30.89	4-2
1990-10-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-13	1524.27	1478.19	47.94%	51.81%	+25.92	5-2
1990-10-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-38	1550.19	1423.81	59.37%	40.37%	-29.70	5-3
1990-11-04	New Orleans Saints	L 7-21	1520.49	1479.14	63.98%	35.76%	-26.13	5-4
1990-11-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-3	1494.36	1533.82	52.76%	46.99%	+25.14	6-4
1990-11-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-34	1519.50	1441.31	68.70%	31.05%	-28.05	6-5
1990-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-12	1491.45	1529.38	36.21%	63.53%	+13.87	7-5
1990-12-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1505.32	1654.63	37.24%	62.51%	-7.05	7-6
1990-12-16	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-24	1498.27	1556.52	33.56%	66.19%	-15.12	7-7
1990-12-23	Houston Oilers	W 40-20	1483.15	1572.28	45.62%	54.12%	+26.42	8-7
1990-12-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-14	1509.57	1349.59	77.80%	21.95%	+6.35	9-7
1990-09-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-3	1525.32	1501.75	61.60%	38.15%	+13.17	1-0
1990-09-16	@ New York Jets	L 21-24	1538.49	1445.29	54.70%	45.04%	-10.34	1-1
1990-09-23	San Diego Chargers	L 14-24	1528.15	1458.20	67.67%	32.07%	-23.35	1-2
1990-09-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-34	1504.80	1524.86	38.62%	61.12%	-24.60	1-3
1990-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-29	1480.20	1531.28	34.48%	65.26%	+7.12	2-3
1990-10-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-25	1487.32	1516.62	37.37%	62.38%	-9.13	2-4
1990-10-22	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-34	1478.19	1524.27	51.81%	47.94%	-25.92	2-5
1990-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1452.27	1647.56	18.67%	81.08%	-3.53	2-6
1990-11-04	Buffalo Bills	L 0-42	1448.74	1586.03	38.87%	60.88%	-27.52	2-7
1990-11-18	Houston Oilers	L 23-35	1421.22	1508.49	45.89%	53.86%	-17.36	2-8
1990-11-25	Miami Dolphins	L 13-30	1403.86	1581.77	33.48%	66.27%	-15.08	2-9
1990-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-38	1388.78	1492.56	43.54%	56.21%	-18.42	2-10
1990-12-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-58	1370.36	1527.16	22.26%	77.48%	-16.15	2-11
1990-12-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-10	1354.21	1390.65	53.19%	46.56%	+8.81	3-11
1990-12-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-35	1363.02	1535.35	20.76%	78.99%	-13.43	3-12
1990-12-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1349.59	1509.57	21.95%	77.80%	-6.35	3-13
1990-09-09	San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1431.83	1479.19	51.62%	48.12%	+9.10	1-0
1990-09-16	New York Giants	L 7-28	1440.93	1542.95	43.79%	55.96%	-21.91	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 15-19	1419.02	1531.99	26.93%	72.81%	-5.89	1-2
1990-09-30	@ New York Giants	L 17-31	1413.13	1580.64	21.22%	78.53%	-8.68	1-3
1990-10-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-10	1404.45	1473.72	48.47%	51.27%	+11.20	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 3-20	1415.65	1402.85	43.19%	56.55%	-19.45	2-4
1990-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-13	1396.20	1477.84	30.62%	69.12%	+15.08	3-4
1990-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-21	1411.28	1510.94	44.12%	55.62%	-4.82	3-5
1990-11-04	@ New York Jets	L 9-24	1406.46	1429.73	38.19%	61.56%	-16.15	3-6
1990-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-24	1390.31	1658.07	23.08%	76.67%	-10.71	3-7
1990-11-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1379.60	1476.06	28.84%	70.90%	+13.40	4-7
1990-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1393.00	1554.38	35.63%	64.11%	+22.13	5-7
1990-12-02	New Orleans Saints	W 17-13	1415.13	1512.52	44.45%	55.30%	+12.07	6-7
1990-12-16	Phoenix Cardinals	W 41-10	1427.20	1427.13	58.36%	41.38%	+25.17	7-7
1990-12-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1452.37	1578.90	25.42%	74.32%	-10.40	7-8
1990-12-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-26	1441.97	1397.95	47.64%	52.10%	-22.68	7-9
1990-09-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 9-14	1537.04	1496.99	47.07%	52.67%	-11.49	0-1
1990-09-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-23	1525.55	1506.45	60.99%	38.75%	+4.23	1-1
1990-09-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-31	1529.78	1451.65	68.69%	31.06%	+5.88	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-29	1535.66	1545.06	40.09%	59.66%	-4.38	2-2
1990-10-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 29-30	1531.28	1480.20	65.26%	34.48%	-7.12	2-3
1990-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-34	1524.16	1478.07	64.61%	35.14%	-29.07	2-4
1990-10-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-17	1495.09	1481.53	43.30%	56.45%	+19.48	3-4
1990-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-27	1514.57	1473.79	47.18%	52.57%	-11.52	3-5
1990-11-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-19	1503.05	1511.51	40.22%	59.53%	-15.21	3-6
1990-11-18	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1487.84	1601.92	42.09%	57.66%	-7.97	3-7
1990-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-40	1479.87	1440.09	47.04%	52.71%	-18.51	3-8
1990-12-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-23	1461.36	1534.38	47.93%	51.82%	-9.07	3-9
1990-12-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-31	1452.29	1578.38	25.47%	74.27%	-9.23	3-10
1990-12-16	San Diego Chargers	W 20-10	1443.06	1510.98	48.66%	51.08%	+17.63	4-10
1990-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 12-17	1460.69	1497.44	36.37%	63.37%	-8.88	4-11
1990-12-30	Green Bay Packers	W 22-13	1451.81	1435.62	60.59%	39.15%	+12.83	5-11
1990-09-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-38	1476.35	1450.96	61.85%	37.90%	-27.83	0-1
1990-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-14	1448.52	1465.03	56.03%	43.72%	+12.63	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1461.15	1452.66	42.58%	57.16%	-8.05	1-2
1990-09-30	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1453.10	1458.92	57.54%	42.21%	-10.88	1-3
1990-10-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-27	1442.22	1526.55	30.30%	69.45%	+20.05	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-43	1462.27	1537.95	31.36%	68.39%	-14.94	2-4
1990-10-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1447.33	1509.13	33.11%	66.64%	+29.99	3-4
1990-11-04	Washington Redskins	L 38-41	1477.32	1547.69	48.31%	51.43%	-9.14	3-5
1990-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-17	1468.18	1485.31	55.94%	43.80%	-19.31	3-6
1990-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 0-20	1448.87	1652.47	17.95%	81.80%	-8.78	3-7
1990-11-22	Denver Broncos	W 40-27	1440.09	1479.87	52.71%	47.04%	+18.52	4-7
1990-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-23	1458.61	1578.14	26.20%	73.55%	-7.01	4-8
1990-12-10	Los Angeles Raiders	L 31-38	1451.60	1543.45	45.23%	54.51%	-13.07	4-9
1990-12-16	Chicago Bears	W 38-21	1438.53	1580.22	38.27%	61.48%	+27.66	5-9
1990-12-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1466.19	1451.89	43.40%	56.34%	+16.27	6-9
1990-12-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-30	1482.46	1506.32	38.11%	61.64%	-18.61	6-10
1990-09-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 36-24	1490.14	1540.33	51.21%	48.53%	+18.35	1-0
1990-09-16	Chicago Bears	L 13-31	1508.49	1509.89	58.16%	41.59%	-26.93	1-1
1990-09-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-17	1481.56	1502.22	55.44%	44.30%	-22.64	1-2
1990-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1458.92	1453.10	42.21%	57.54%	+10.88	2-2
1990-10-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1469.80	1527.59	33.62%	66.13%	-13.75	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-26	1456.05	1462.52	40.49%	59.25%	-15.32	2-4
1990-10-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-10	1440.73	1493.79	50.80%	48.94%	+19.99	3-4
1990-11-04	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1460.72	1651.10	31.90%	67.85%	-6.97	3-5
1990-11-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 29-16	1453.75	1561.05	27.58%	72.17%	+28.40	4-5
1990-11-18	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 24-21	1482.15	1386.03	55.12%	44.63%	+8.44	5-5
1990-11-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1490.59	1394.04	70.91%	28.83%	+9.96	6-5
1990-12-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-23	1500.55	1546.74	35.12%	64.62%	-15.35	6-6
1990-12-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-20	1485.20	1491.26	57.50%	42.24%	-15.37	6-7
1990-12-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-31	1469.83	1560.96	29.48%	70.27%	-17.94	6-8
1990-12-22	Detroit Lions	L 17-24	1451.89	1466.19	56.34%	43.40%	-16.27	6-9
1990-12-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-22	1435.62	1451.81	39.15%	60.59%	-12.83	6-10
1990-09-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 27-47	1496.59	1440.95	49.31%	50.43%	-24.08	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-20	1472.51	1488.58	39.17%	60.58%	-14.19	0-2
1990-09-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-10	1458.32	1481.10	55.14%	44.61%	+18.23	1-2
1990-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-7	1476.55	1481.55	40.70%	59.05%	+20.38	2-2
1990-10-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1496.93	1615.51	41.46%	58.29%	-7.85	2-3
1990-10-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 48-17	1489.08	1555.16	48.93%	50.82%	+30.89	3-3
1990-10-21	New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1519.97	1525.75	57.54%	42.20%	+16.62	4-3
1990-10-28	New York Jets	L 12-17	1536.59	1411.63	74.15%	25.60%	-18.09	4-4
1990-11-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-17	1518.50	1487.07	45.84%	53.91%	-10.01	4-5
1990-11-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-23	1508.49	1421.22	53.86%	45.89%	+17.36	5-5
1990-11-26	Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1525.85	1629.11	43.61%	56.13%	+10.61	6-5
1990-12-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1536.46	1481.97	49.15%	50.60%	-9.30	6-6
1990-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 58-14	1527.16	1370.36	77.48%	22.26%	+16.15	7-6
1990-12-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-10	1543.31	1587.62	35.37%	64.37%	+28.97	8-6
1990-12-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-40	1572.28	1483.15	54.12%	45.62%	-26.42	8-7
1990-12-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-14	1545.86	1548.77	57.94%	41.80%	+20.41	9-7
1990-09-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-26	1507.55	1527.99	38.57%	61.17%	-16.85	0-1
1990-09-16	New England Patriots	L 14-16	1490.70	1462.57	62.22%	37.53%	-9.60	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-24	1481.10	1458.32	44.61%	55.14%	-18.23	0-3
1990-09-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1462.87	1515.35	34.30%	65.44%	+7.14	1-3
1990-10-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-19	1470.01	1549.46	47.01%	52.74%	+11.52	2-3
1990-10-21	Denver Broncos	L 17-27	1481.53	1495.09	56.45%	43.30%	-19.49	2-4
1990-10-28	Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1462.04	1544.76	46.54%	53.21%	-22.72	2-5
1990-11-05	New York Giants	L 7-24	1439.32	1616.32	33.59%	66.15%	-15.14	2-6
1990-11-11	@ New England Patriots	W 13-10	1424.18	1363.37	50.06%	49.69%	+9.40	3-6
1990-11-18	New York Jets	W 17-14	1433.58	1429.72	58.89%	40.86%	+7.73	4-6
1990-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-20	1441.31	1519.50	31.05%	68.70%	+28.05	5-6
1990-12-02	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 17-20	1469.36	1395.87	51.88%	47.86%	-9.81	5-7
1990-12-09	Buffalo Bills	L 7-31	1459.55	1628.91	34.58%	65.16%	-18.51	5-8
1990-12-16	@ New York Jets	W 29-21	1441.04	1386.77	49.12%	50.63%	+15.63	6-8
1990-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 35-28	1456.67	1573.30	41.73%	58.02%	+16.75	7-8
1990-12-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-23	1473.42	1576.91	28.02%	71.72%	-7.50	7-9
1990-09-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-21	1497.72	1531.39	53.59%	46.16%	+8.73	1-0
1990-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-24	1506.45	1525.55	38.75%	60.99%	-4.23	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-3	1502.22	1481.56	44.30%	55.44%	+22.64	2-1
1990-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-0	1524.86	1504.80	61.12%	38.62%	+24.60	3-1
1990-10-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 19-23	1549.46	1470.01	52.74%	47.01%	-11.51	3-2
1990-10-14	Detroit Lions	W 43-24	1537.95	1462.27	68.39%	31.36%	+14.93	4-2
1990-10-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-19	1552.88	1480.68	51.70%	48.05%	-19.55	4-3
1990-11-04	Los Angeles Raiders	W 9-7	1533.33	1568.21	53.41%	46.33%	+7.16	5-3
1990-11-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1540.49	1472.97	67.37%	32.38%	-7.35	5-4
1990-11-18	San Diego Chargers	W 27-10	1533.14	1526.73	59.24%	40.50%	+18.24	6-4
1990-11-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-24	1551.38	1545.25	42.25%	57.49%	+10.87	7-4
1990-12-02	@ New England Patriots	W 37-7	1562.25	1330.37	72.80%	26.95%	+16.13	8-4
1990-12-09	Denver Broncos	W 31-20	1578.38	1452.29	74.27%	25.47%	+9.24	9-4
1990-12-16	Houston Oilers	L 10-27	1587.62	1543.31	64.37%	35.37%	-28.97	9-5
1990-12-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-21	1558.65	1493.35	50.70%	49.04%	+9.27	10-5
1990-12-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-10	1567.92	1562.39	42.17%	57.58%	+20.85	11-5
1990-09-09	Denver Broncos	W 14-9	1496.99	1537.04	52.67%	47.07%	+11.50	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1508.49	1462.98	47.86%	51.89%	+11.33	2-0
1990-09-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-3	1519.82	1502.77	60.71%	39.03%	+17.58	3-0
1990-09-30	Chicago Bears	W 24-10	1537.40	1544.94	57.29%	42.45%	+17.34	4-0
1990-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-38	1554.74	1549.44	42.14%	57.61%	-17.22	4-1
1990-10-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-17	1537.52	1490.81	64.69%	35.05%	+10.14	5-1
1990-10-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-9	1547.66	1479.29	51.15%	48.60%	+20.55	6-1
1990-11-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-9	1568.21	1533.33	46.33%	53.41%	-7.16	6-2
1990-11-11	Green Bay Packers	L 16-29	1561.05	1453.75	72.17%	27.58%	-28.39	6-3
1990-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 13-10	1532.66	1594.36	33.12%	66.63%	+12.59	7-3
1990-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1545.25	1551.38	57.49%	42.25%	-10.87	7-4
1990-12-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1534.38	1461.36	51.82%	47.93%	+9.07	8-4
1990-12-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-31	1543.45	1451.60	54.51%	45.23%	+13.07	9-4
1990-12-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-7	1556.52	1498.27	66.19%	33.56%	+15.12	10-4
1990-12-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-24	1571.64	1527.04	47.73%	52.02%	+11.35	11-4
1990-12-30	San Diego Chargers	W 17-12	1582.99	1484.07	71.19%	28.55%	+6.98	12-4
1990-09-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-36	1540.33	1490.14	48.53%	51.21%	-18.36	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-14	1521.97	1478.79	47.52%	52.22%	+26.13	1-1
1990-09-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-27	1548.10	1497.94	65.14%	34.60%	-17.42	1-2
1990-10-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-34	1530.68	1544.49	56.41%	43.33%	-10.66	1-3
1990-10-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-38	1520.02	1541.34	38.45%	61.29%	-22.62	1-4
1990-10-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 44-24	1497.40	1440.28	66.04%	33.70%	+16.47	2-4
1990-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-41	1513.87	1494.79	44.08%	55.66%	-26.80	2-5
1990-11-04	Houston Oilers	W 17-13	1487.07	1518.50	53.91%	45.84%	+10.01	3-5
1990-11-11	New York Giants	L 7-31	1497.08	1631.46	39.27%	60.48%	-21.02	3-6
1990-11-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1476.06	1379.60	70.90%	28.84%	-13.40	3-7
1990-11-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-17	1462.66	1675.82	17.15%	82.59%	+29.90	4-7
1990-12-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-23	1492.56	1388.78	56.21%	43.54%	+18.41	5-7
1990-12-09	New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1510.97	1500.44	59.81%	39.93%	-13.05	5-8
1990-12-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-26	1497.92	1661.68	35.32%	64.43%	-15.44	5-9
1990-12-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-20	1482.48	1381.85	55.76%	43.99%	-16.10	5-10
1990-12-31	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1466.38	1517.73	34.45%	65.30%	-6.52	5-11
1990-09-09	@ New England Patriots	W 27-24	1481.42	1473.39	42.52%	57.23%	+10.81	1-0
1990-09-16	Buffalo Bills	W 30-7	1492.23	1544.85	50.87%	48.88%	+25.60	2-0
1990-09-23	@ New York Giants	L 3-20	1517.83	1564.87	35.01%	64.73%	-15.77	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-6	1502.06	1485.19	43.77%	55.98%	+28.65	3-1
1990-10-07	New York Jets	W 20-16	1530.71	1462.69	67.43%	32.32%	+7.07	4-1
1990-10-18	New England Patriots	W 17-10	1537.78	1399.37	75.60%	24.15%	+6.98	5-1
1990-10-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-7	1544.76	1462.04	53.21%	46.54%	+22.73	6-1
1990-11-04	Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-3	1567.49	1406.98	77.85%	21.90%	+10.71	7-1
1990-11-11	@ New York Jets	W 17-3	1578.20	1445.88	60.19%	39.55%	+16.16	8-1
1990-11-19	Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-13	1594.36	1532.66	66.63%	33.12%	-12.59	8-2
1990-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-13	1581.77	1403.86	66.27%	33.48%	+15.08	9-2
1990-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-42	1596.85	1532.25	50.60%	49.14%	-25.91	9-3
1990-12-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-20	1570.94	1568.74	58.66%	41.09%	+7.77	10-3
1990-12-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-17	1578.71	1506.63	67.94%	31.81%	+9.20	11-3
1990-12-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-24	1587.91	1659.82	31.83%	67.92%	-11.00	11-4
1990-12-30	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-17	1576.91	1473.42	71.72%	28.02%	+7.50	12-4
1990-09-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1531.39	1497.72	46.16%	53.59%	-8.73	0-1
1990-09-16	New Orleans Saints	W 32-3	1522.66	1530.75	57.22%	42.53%	+25.01	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-19	1547.67	1536.82	42.92%	56.83%	-8.12	1-2
1990-09-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1539.55	1460.72	68.78%	30.97%	-13.00	1-3
1990-10-07	Detroit Lions	L 27-34	1526.55	1442.22	69.45%	30.30%	-20.05	1-4
1990-10-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-32	1506.50	1508.21	41.15%	58.59%	-12.71	1-5
1990-10-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-24	1493.79	1440.73	48.94%	50.80%	-20.00	1-6
1990-11-04	Denver Broncos	W 27-22	1473.79	1514.57	52.57%	47.18%	+11.52	2-6
1990-11-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-7	1485.31	1468.18	43.80%	55.94%	+19.31	3-6
1990-11-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-21	1504.62	1480.33	44.82%	54.92%	+10.38	4-6
1990-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 41-13	1515.00	1609.88	44.80%	54.94%	+31.74	5-6
1990-12-02	Green Bay Packers	W 23-7	1546.74	1500.55	64.62%	35.12%	+15.35	6-6
1990-12-09	@ New York Giants	L 15-23	1562.09	1626.21	32.81%	66.94%	-10.14	6-7
1990-12-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-26	1551.95	1396.69	63.30%	36.44%	-24.91	6-8
1990-12-22	Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-28	1527.04	1571.64	52.02%	47.73%	-11.36	6-9
1990-12-30	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1515.68	1662.14	37.62%	62.12%	-7.12	6-10
1990-09-09	Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1473.39	1481.42	57.23%	42.52%	-10.82	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-14	1462.57	1490.70	37.53%	62.22%	+9.60	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-41	1472.17	1549.59	31.14%	68.60%	-19.85	1-2
1990-09-30	New York Jets	L 13-37	1452.32	1429.83	61.45%	38.29%	-32.85	1-3
1990-10-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-33	1419.47	1470.71	51.06%	48.68%	-20.10	1-4
1990-10-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-17	1399.37	1537.78	24.15%	75.60%	-6.99	1-5
1990-10-28	Buffalo Bills	L 10-27	1392.38	1570.99	33.39%	66.36%	-15.04	1-6
1990-11-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-48	1377.34	1515.76	24.15%	75.60%	-13.97	1-7
1990-11-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-13	1363.37	1424.18	49.69%	50.06%	-9.40	1-8
1990-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-14	1353.97	1623.79	13.00%	86.74%	-5.32	1-9
1990-11-25	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 14-34	1348.65	1377.59	37.42%	62.33%	-18.28	1-10
1990-12-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-37	1330.37	1562.25	26.95%	72.80%	-16.13	1-11
1990-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-24	1314.24	1515.52	18.15%	81.60%	-9.10	1-12
1990-12-15	Washington Redskins	L 10-25	1305.14	1563.10	24.10%	75.65%	-10.20	1-13
1990-12-23	@ New York Jets	L 7-42	1294.94	1371.13	31.30%	68.45%	-20.23	1-14
1990-12-30	New York Giants	L 10-13	1274.71	1629.27	15.40%	84.34%	-2.92	1-15
1990-09-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-13	1536.28	1590.40	50.65%	49.10%	-5.53	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-32	1530.75	1522.66	42.53%	57.22%	-25.02	0-2
1990-09-23	Phoenix Cardinals	W 28-7	1505.73	1444.05	66.63%	33.12%	+16.59	1-2
1990-10-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 27-28	1522.32	1446.45	52.22%	47.52%	-5.70	1-3
1990-10-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 25-20	1516.62	1487.32	62.38%	37.37%	+9.13	2-3
1990-10-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-23	1525.75	1519.97	42.20%	57.54%	-16.62	2-4
1990-10-28	Detroit Lions	L 10-27	1509.13	1447.33	66.64%	33.11%	-29.99	2-5
1990-11-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-7	1479.14	1520.49	35.76%	63.98%	+26.13	3-5
1990-11-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1505.27	1418.42	69.75%	29.99%	+17.34	4-5
1990-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-31	1522.61	1538.35	39.21%	60.53%	-16.02	4-6
1990-11-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 10-7	1506.59	1430.64	68.42%	31.33%	+5.93	5-6
1990-12-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-17	1512.52	1415.13	55.30%	44.45%	-12.08	5-7
1990-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-20	1500.44	1510.97	39.93%	59.81%	+13.06	6-7
1990-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-9	1513.50	1524.61	56.79%	42.95%	-10.74	6-8
1990-12-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-10	1502.76	1677.11	20.56%	79.18%	+14.97	7-8
1990-12-31	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1517.73	1466.38	65.30%	34.45%	+6.52	8-8
1990-09-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1531.45	1519.98	59.94%	39.80%	+11.50	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-7	1542.95	1440.93	55.96%	43.79%	+21.92	2-0
1990-09-23	Miami Dolphins	W 20-3	1564.87	1517.83	64.73%	35.01%	+15.77	3-0
1990-09-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1580.64	1413.13	78.53%	21.22%	+8.68	4-0
1990-10-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1589.32	1562.50	45.18%	54.56%	+11.91	5-0
1990-10-21	Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-19	1601.23	1422.30	79.61%	20.14%	+2.20	6-0
1990-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 21-10	1603.43	1560.58	64.18%	35.56%	+12.89	7-0
1990-11-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-7	1616.32	1439.32	66.15%	33.59%	+15.14	8-0
1990-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-7	1631.46	1497.08	60.48%	39.27%	+21.01	9-0
1990-11-18	Detroit Lions	W 20-0	1652.47	1448.87	81.80%	17.95%	+8.78	10-0
1990-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-31	1661.25	1552.82	56.86%	42.88%	-26.33	10-1
1990-12-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-7	1634.92	1645.92	39.87%	59.88%	-8.71	10-2
1990-12-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-15	1626.21	1562.09	66.94%	32.81%	+10.14	11-2
1990-12-15	Buffalo Bills	L 13-17	1636.35	1647.42	56.80%	42.95%	-12.40	11-3
1990-12-23	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 24-21	1623.95	1401.96	71.66%	28.08%	+5.32	12-3
1990-12-30	@ New England Patriots	W 13-10	1629.27	1274.71	84.34%	15.40%	+2.91	13-3
1990-09-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-25	1452.91	1530.08	31.18%	68.57%	-7.62	0-1
1990-09-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-21	1445.29	1538.49	45.04%	54.70%	+10.35	1-1
1990-09-24	Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1455.64	1519.25	49.28%	50.46%	-25.81	1-2
1990-09-30	@ New England Patriots	W 37-13	1429.83	1452.32	38.29%	61.45%	+32.86	2-2
1990-10-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-20	1462.69	1530.71	32.32%	67.43%	-7.06	2-3
1990-10-14	San Diego Chargers	L 3-39	1455.63	1439.63	60.57%	39.18%	-39.67	2-4
1990-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 27-30	1415.96	1566.66	22.88%	76.87%	-4.33	2-5
1990-10-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-12	1411.63	1536.59	25.60%	74.15%	+18.10	3-5
1990-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-9	1429.73	1406.46	61.56%	38.19%	+16.15	4-5
1990-11-11	Miami Dolphins	L 3-17	1445.88	1578.20	39.55%	60.19%	-16.16	4-6
1990-11-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-17	1429.72	1433.58	40.86%	58.89%	-7.73	4-7
1990-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-24	1421.99	1508.69	45.97%	53.78%	-20.70	4-8
1990-12-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-38	1401.29	1496.46	29.00%	70.75%	-14.52	4-9
1990-12-16	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-29	1386.77	1441.04	50.63%	49.12%	-15.64	4-10
1990-12-23	New England Patriots	W 42-7	1371.13	1294.94	68.45%	31.30%	+20.24	5-10
1990-12-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-14	1391.37	1411.76	38.58%	61.17%	+9.44	6-10
1990-09-09	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1519.98	1531.45	39.80%	59.94%	-11.50	0-1
1990-09-16	Phoenix Cardinals	L 21-23	1508.48	1433.51	68.30%	31.45%	-10.54	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-21	1497.94	1548.10	34.60%	65.14%	+17.41	1-2
1990-09-30	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-24	1515.35	1462.87	65.44%	34.30%	-7.14	1-3
1990-10-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 32-24	1508.21	1506.50	58.59%	41.15%	+12.72	2-3
1990-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-13	1520.93	1550.59	37.32%	62.42%	-9.99	2-4
1990-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-20	1510.94	1411.28	55.62%	44.12%	+4.82	3-4
1990-11-04	New England Patriots	W 48-20	1515.76	1377.34	75.60%	24.15%	+13.97	4-4
1990-11-12	Washington Redskins	W 28-14	1529.73	1556.83	54.52%	45.22%	+18.47	5-4
1990-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1548.20	1435.26	57.50%	42.25%	+4.62	6-4
1990-11-25	New York Giants	W 31-13	1552.82	1661.25	42.88%	56.86%	+26.33	7-4
1990-12-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-30	1579.15	1618.50	36.03%	63.72%	-10.41	7-5
1990-12-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-23	1568.74	1570.94	41.09%	58.66%	-7.78	7-6
1990-12-16	Green Bay Packers	W 31-0	1560.96	1469.83	70.27%	29.48%	+17.94	8-6
1990-12-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-3	1578.90	1452.37	74.32%	25.42%	+10.40	9-6
1990-12-29	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-21	1589.30	1396.64	68.13%	31.62%	+4.89	10-6
1990-09-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-31	1452.75	1526.38	31.61%	68.13%	-19.24	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1433.51	1508.48	31.45%	68.30%	+10.54	1-1
1990-09-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-28	1444.05	1505.73	33.12%	66.63%	-16.58	1-2
1990-09-30	Washington Redskins	L 10-38	1427.47	1537.88	42.60%	57.14%	-24.62	1-3
1990-10-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-3	1402.85	1415.65	56.55%	43.19%	+19.45	2-3
1990-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 19-20	1422.30	1601.23	20.14%	79.61%	-2.20	2-4
1990-10-28	Chicago Bears	L 21-31	1420.10	1563.96	37.98%	61.77%	-13.12	2-5
1990-11-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-23	1406.98	1567.49	21.90%	77.85%	-10.71	2-6
1990-11-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-45	1396.27	1613.55	16.82%	82.93%	-10.24	2-7
1990-11-18	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1386.03	1482.15	44.63%	55.12%	-8.44	2-8
1990-11-25	New England Patriots	W 34-14	1377.59	1348.65	62.33%	37.42%	+18.28	3-8
1990-12-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-17	1395.87	1469.36	47.86%	51.88%	+9.81	4-8
1990-12-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-13	1405.68	1412.10	40.50%	59.25%	+21.45	5-8
1990-12-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-41	1427.13	1427.20	41.38%	58.36%	-25.17	5-9
1990-12-23	New York Giants	L 21-24	1401.96	1623.95	28.08%	71.66%	-5.32	5-10
1990-12-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-23	1396.64	1589.30	31.62%	68.13%	-4.88	5-11
1990-09-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-13	1501.75	1525.32	38.15%	61.60%	-13.17	0-1
1990-09-16	Houston Oilers	W 20-9	1488.58	1472.51	60.58%	39.17%	+14.19	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-20	1502.77	1519.82	39.03%	60.71%	-17.58	1-2
1990-09-30	Miami Dolphins	L 6-28	1485.19	1502.06	55.98%	43.77%	-28.66	1-3
1990-10-07	San Diego Chargers	W 36-14	1456.53	1461.17	57.70%	42.04%	+21.54	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-17	1478.07	1524.16	35.14%	64.61%	+29.07	3-3
1990-10-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-27	1507.14	1635.22	25.26%	74.49%	-12.35	3-4
1990-10-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 41-10	1494.79	1513.87	55.66%	44.08%	+26.80	4-4
1990-11-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-9	1521.59	1453.51	67.44%	32.31%	+12.23	5-4
1990-11-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-27	1533.82	1494.36	46.99%	52.76%	-25.13	5-5
1990-11-25	@ New York Jets	W 24-7	1508.69	1421.99	53.78%	45.97%	+20.69	6-5
1990-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-16	1529.38	1491.45	63.53%	36.21%	-13.86	6-6
1990-12-09	New England Patriots	W 24-3	1515.52	1314.24	81.60%	18.15%	+9.09	7-6
1990-12-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 9-6	1524.61	1513.50	42.95%	56.79%	+10.74	8-6
1990-12-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-0	1535.35	1363.02	78.99%	20.76%	+13.42	9-6
1990-12-30	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-34	1548.77	1545.86	41.80%	57.94%	-20.41	9-7
1990-09-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1479.19	1431.83	48.12%	51.62%	-9.10	0-1
1990-09-16	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-21	1470.09	1537.69	48.71%	51.04%	-11.89	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-14	1458.20	1528.15	32.07%	67.67%	+23.35	1-2
1990-09-30	Houston Oilers	L 7-17	1481.55	1476.55	59.05%	40.70%	-20.38	1-3
1990-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-36	1461.17	1456.53	42.04%	57.70%	-21.54	1-4
1990-10-14	@ New York Jets	W 39-3	1439.63	1455.63	39.18%	60.57%	+39.66	2-4
1990-10-21	Los Angeles Raiders	L 9-24	1479.29	1547.66	48.60%	51.15%	-20.55	2-5
1990-10-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-10	1458.74	1462.76	57.79%	41.96%	+25.52	3-5
1990-11-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-14	1484.26	1500.23	39.18%	60.56%	+27.25	4-5
1990-11-11	Denver Broncos	W 19-7	1511.51	1503.05	59.53%	40.22%	+15.22	5-5
1990-11-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-27	1526.73	1533.14	40.50%	59.24%	-18.24	5-6
1990-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1508.49	1469.94	63.61%	36.13%	-12.03	5-7
1990-12-02	New York Jets	W 38-17	1496.46	1401.29	70.75%	29.00%	+14.52	6-7
1990-12-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-20	1510.98	1443.06	51.08%	48.66%	-17.63	6-8
1990-12-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1493.35	1558.65	49.04%	50.70%	-9.28	6-9
1990-12-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 12-17	1484.07	1582.99	28.55%	71.19%	-6.97	6-10
1990-09-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 13-12	1590.40	1536.28	49.10%	50.65%	+5.53	1-0
1990-09-16	Washington Redskins	W 26-13	1595.93	1545.62	65.16%	34.58%	+13.62	2-0
1990-09-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 19-13	1609.55	1452.40	77.52%	22.23%	+5.96	3-0
1990-10-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-21	1615.51	1496.93	58.29%	41.46%	+7.84	4-0
1990-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 45-35	1623.35	1452.15	65.40%	34.34%	+11.87	5-0
1990-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-7	1635.22	1507.14	74.49%	25.26%	+12.34	6-0
1990-10-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1647.56	1452.27	81.08%	18.67%	+3.54	7-0
1990-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-20	1651.10	1460.72	67.85%	31.90%	+6.97	8-0
1990-11-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-6	1658.07	1390.31	76.67%	23.08%	+10.71	9-0
1990-11-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-7	1668.78	1401.08	86.61%	13.14%	+7.04	10-0
1990-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-28	1675.82	1462.66	82.59%	17.15%	-29.90	10-1
1990-12-03	New York Giants	W 7-3	1645.92	1634.92	59.88%	39.87%	+8.71	11-1
1990-12-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1654.63	1505.32	62.51%	37.24%	+7.05	12-1
1990-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 26-10	1661.68	1497.92	64.43%	35.32%	+15.43	13-1
1990-12-23	New Orleans Saints	L 10-13	1677.11	1502.76	79.18%	20.56%	-14.97	13-2
1990-12-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1662.14	1515.68	62.12%	37.62%	+7.12	14-2
1990-09-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-17	1480.93	1491.94	39.87%	59.88%	-17.95	0-1
1990-09-16	Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-17	1462.98	1508.49	51.89%	47.86%	-11.33	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 31-34	1451.65	1529.78	31.06%	68.69%	-5.88	0-3
1990-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-16	1445.77	1569.43	40.75%	59.00%	+24.94	1-3
1990-10-07	@ New England Patriots	W 33-20	1470.71	1419.47	48.68%	51.06%	+20.10	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-24	1490.81	1537.52	35.05%	64.69%	-10.13	2-4
1990-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-7	1480.68	1552.88	48.05%	51.70%	+19.55	3-4
1990-11-04	San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1500.23	1484.26	60.56%	39.18%	-27.26	3-5
1990-11-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1472.97	1540.49	32.38%	67.37%	+7.36	4-5
1990-11-18	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1480.33	1504.62	54.92%	44.82%	-10.39	4-6
1990-11-25	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-10	1469.94	1508.49	36.13%	63.61%	+12.03	5-6
1990-12-02	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1481.97	1536.46	50.60%	49.15%	+9.29	6-6
1990-12-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-14	1491.26	1485.20	42.24%	57.50%	+15.37	7-6
1990-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1506.63	1578.71	31.81%	67.94%	-9.19	7-7
1990-12-23	Denver Broncos	W 17-12	1497.44	1460.69	63.37%	36.37%	+8.88	8-7
1990-12-30	Detroit Lions	W 30-10	1506.32	1482.46	61.64%	38.11%	+18.62	9-7
1990-09-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-21	1450.96	1476.35	37.90%	61.85%	+27.83	1-0
1990-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-35	1478.79	1521.97	52.22%	47.52%	-26.13	1-1
1990-09-23	Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1452.66	1461.15	57.16%	42.58%	+8.06	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1460.72	1539.55	30.97%	68.78%	+13.00	3-1
1990-10-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-14	1473.72	1404.45	51.27%	48.47%	-11.20	3-2
1990-10-14	Green Bay Packers	W 26-14	1462.52	1456.05	59.25%	40.49%	+15.32	4-2
1990-10-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-17	1477.84	1396.20	69.12%	30.62%	-15.08	4-3
1990-10-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-41	1462.76	1458.74	41.96%	57.79%	-25.52	4-4
1990-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 6-26	1437.24	1577.08	38.52%	61.22%	-18.82	4-5
1990-11-11	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-35	1418.42	1505.27	29.99%	69.75%	-17.34	4-6
1990-11-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-31	1401.08	1668.78	13.14%	86.61%	-7.04	4-7
1990-11-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1394.04	1490.59	28.83%	70.91%	-9.97	4-8
1990-12-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-17	1384.07	1424.71	52.59%	47.16%	+12.62	5-8
1990-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-13	1396.69	1551.95	36.44%	63.30%	+24.91	6-8
1990-12-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-27	1421.60	1552.56	24.94%	74.80%	-9.84	6-9
1990-12-30	New York Jets	L 14-16	1411.76	1391.37	61.17%	38.58%	-9.44	6-10
1990-09-09	Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-0	1526.38	1452.75	68.13%	31.61%	+19.24	1-0
1990-09-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-26	1545.62	1595.93	34.58%	65.16%	-13.63	1-1
1990-09-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-15	1531.99	1419.02	72.81%	26.93%	+5.89	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 38-10	1537.88	1427.47	57.14%	42.60%	+24.62	3-1
1990-10-14	New York Giants	L 20-24	1562.50	1589.32	54.56%	45.18%	-11.91	3-2
1990-10-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-7	1550.59	1520.93	62.42%	37.32%	+9.99	4-2
1990-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 10-21	1560.58	1603.43	35.56%	64.18%	-12.89	4-3
1990-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-38	1547.69	1477.32	51.43%	48.31%	+9.14	5-3
1990-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-28	1556.83	1529.73	45.22%	54.52%	-18.48	5-4
1990-11-18	New Orleans Saints	W 31-17	1538.35	1522.61	60.53%	39.21%	+16.03	6-4
1990-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1554.38	1393.00	64.11%	35.63%	-22.13	6-5
1990-12-02	Miami Dolphins	W 42-20	1532.25	1596.85	49.14%	50.60%	+25.91	7-5
1990-12-09	Chicago Bears	W 10-9	1558.16	1585.16	54.54%	45.21%	+4.94	8-5
1990-12-15	@ New England Patriots	W 25-10	1563.10	1305.14	75.65%	24.10%	+10.20	9-5
1990-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-35	1573.30	1456.67	58.02%	41.73%	-16.75	9-6
1990-12-30	Buffalo Bills	W 29-14	1556.55	1670.82	42.06%	57.68%	+24.38	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1991-01-12	Miami Dolphins	W 44-34	1646.44	1589.00	66.22%	33.78%	+11.63	1-0
1991-01-20	Los Angeles Raiders	W 51-3	1658.07	1602.09	66.03%	33.97%	+25.63	2-0
1991-01-27	@ New York Giants	L 19-20	1683.70	1659.94	53.41%	46.59%	-5.82	2-1
1991-01-06	New Orleans Saints	W 16-6	1541.55	1524.25	60.88%	39.12%	+13.47	1-0
1991-01-13	@ New York Giants	L 3-31	1555.02	1632.18	31.29%	68.71%	-18.03	1-1
1991-01-06	Houston Oilers	W 41-14	1515.92	1566.27	51.32%	48.68%	+27.55	1-0
1991-01-13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-20	1543.47	1589.97	35.20%	64.80%	-12.12	1-1
1991-01-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-41	1566.27	1515.92	48.68%	51.32%	-27.54	0-1
1991-01-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1588.77	1584.41	42.13%	57.87%	-4.59	0-1
1991-01-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-10	1589.97	1543.47	64.80%	35.20%	+12.12	1-0
1991-01-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-51	1602.09	1658.07	33.97%	66.03%	-25.62	1-1
1991-01-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1584.41	1588.77	57.87%	42.13%	+4.59	1-0
1991-01-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 34-44	1589.00	1646.44	33.78%	66.22%	-11.63	1-1
1991-01-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-16	1524.25	1541.55	39.12%	60.88%	-13.47	0-1
1991-01-13	Chicago Bears	W 31-3	1632.18	1555.02	68.71%	31.29%	+18.03	1-0
1991-01-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 15-13	1650.21	1684.50	36.82%	63.18%	+9.73	2-0
1991-01-27	Buffalo Bills	W 20-19	1659.94	1683.70	46.59%	53.41%	+5.82	3-0
1991-01-05	Washington Redskins	L 6-20	1594.19	1580.93	60.32%	39.68%	-24.58	0-1
1991-01-12	Washington Redskins	W 28-10	1669.26	1605.51	67.03%	32.97%	+15.24	1-0
1991-01-20	New York Giants	L 13-15	1684.50	1650.21	63.18%	36.82%	-9.73	1-1
1991-01-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-6	1580.93	1594.19	39.68%	60.32%	+24.58	1-0
1991-01-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-28	1605.51	1669.26	32.97%	67.03%	-15.23	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1990-11-25	17.15%	Los Angeles Rams	1462.66	28	@ San Francisco 49ers	1675.82	17
2	1990-12-23	20.56%	New Orleans Saints	1502.76	13	@ San Francisco 49ers	1677.11	10
3	1990-10-28	25.60%	New York Jets	1411.63	17	@ Houston Oilers	1536.59	12
4	1990-11-11	27.58%	Green Bay Packers	1453.75	29	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1561.05	16
5	1990-11-18	28.84%	Dallas Cowboys	1379.60	24	@ Los Angeles Rams	1476.06	21
6	1990-10-07	30.30%	Detroit Lions	1442.22	34	@ Minnesota Vikings	1526.55	27
7	1990-10-21	30.62%	Dallas Cowboys	1396.20	17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1477.84	13
8	1990-09-30	30.97%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1460.72	23	@ Minnesota Vikings	1539.55	20
9	1990-11-25	31.05%	Indianapolis Colts	1441.31	34	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1519.50	20
10	1990-09-16	31.45%	Phoenix Cardinals	1433.51	23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1508.48	21
11	1990-09-23	32.07%	San Diego Chargers	1458.20	24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1528.15	14
12	1990-11-11	32.38%	Seattle Seahawks	1472.97	17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1540.49	16
13	1990-10-28	33.11%	Detroit Lions	1447.33	27	@ New Orleans Saints	1509.13	10
14	1990-11-19	33.12%	Los Angeles Raiders	1532.66	13	@ Miami Dolphins	1594.36	10
15	1990-09-30	34.30%	Indianapolis Colts	1462.87	24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1515.35	23
16	1990-10-08	34.48%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1480.20	30	@ Denver Broncos	1531.28	29
17	1990-09-23	34.60%	Philadelphia Eagles	1497.94	27	@ Los Angeles Rams	1548.10	21
18	1990-10-14	35.14%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1478.07	34	@ Denver Broncos	1524.16	17
19	1990-12-16	35.37%	Houston Oilers	1543.31	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1587.62	10
20	1990-11-22	35.63%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1393.00	27	Washington Redskins	1554.38	17
21	1990-11-04	35.76%	New Orleans Saints	1479.14	21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1520.49	7
22	1990-11-25	36.13%	Seattle Seahawks	1469.94	13	@ San Diego Chargers	1508.49	10
23	1990-12-02	36.21%	Cincinnati Bengals	1491.45	16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1529.38	12
24	1990-12-16	36.44%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1396.69	26	Minnesota Vikings	1551.95	13
25	1991-01-20 *	36.82%	New York Giants	1650.21	15	@ San Francisco 49ers	1684.50	13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1990-10-14	39.67	San Diego Chargers	39	1439.63	39.18%	@ New York Jets	3	1455.63	60.57%
2	1990-09-30	32.86	New York Jets	37	1429.83	38.29%	@ New England Patriots	13	1452.32	61.45%
3	1990-11-25	31.74	@ Minnesota Vikings	41	1515.00	44.80%	Chicago Bears	13	1609.88	54.94%
4	1990-10-14	30.89	@ Houston Oilers	48	1489.08	48.93%	Cincinnati Bengals	17	1555.16	50.82%
5	1990-10-28	29.99	Detroit Lions	27	1447.33	33.11%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1509.13	66.64%
6	1990-11-25	29.90	Los Angeles Rams	28	1462.66	17.15%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1675.82	82.59%
7	1990-10-28	29.70	@ Atlanta Falcons	38	1423.81	40.37%	Cincinnati Bengals	17	1550.19	59.37%
8	1990-10-14	29.07	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1478.07	35.14%	@ Denver Broncos	17	1524.16	64.61%
9	1990-12-16	28.97	Houston Oilers	27	1543.31	35.37%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	10	1587.62	64.37%
10	1990-09-30	28.66	Miami Dolphins	28	1502.06	43.77%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1485.19	55.98%
11	1990-11-11	28.40	Green Bay Packers	29	1453.75	27.58%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	16	1561.05	72.17%
12	1990-11-25	28.05	Indianapolis Colts	34	1441.31	31.05%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	20	1519.50	68.70%
13	1990-09-09	27.83	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38	1450.96	37.90%	@ Detroit Lions	21	1476.35	61.85%
14	1990-12-16	27.66	@ Detroit Lions	38	1438.53	38.27%	Chicago Bears	21	1580.22	61.48%
15	1991-01-06 *	27.55	@ Cincinnati Bengals	41	1515.92	51.32%	Houston Oilers	14	1566.27	48.68%
16	1990-11-04	27.52	Buffalo Bills	42	1586.03	60.88%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	0	1448.74	38.87%
17	1990-11-04	27.26	San Diego Chargers	31	1484.26	39.18%	@ Seattle Seahawks	14	1500.23	60.56%
18	1990-09-16	26.93	Chicago Bears	31	1509.89	41.59%	@ Green Bay Packers	13	1508.49	58.16%
19	1990-10-29	26.80	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	41	1494.79	55.66%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1513.87	44.08%
20	1990-12-23	26.42	@ Cincinnati Bengals	40	1483.15	45.62%	Houston Oilers	20	1572.28	54.12%
21	1990-11-25	26.33	@ Philadelphia Eagles	31	1552.82	42.88%	New York Giants	13	1661.25	56.86%
22	1990-11-04	26.13	New Orleans Saints	21	1479.14	35.76%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	7	1520.49	63.98%
23	1990-09-16	26.13	Los Angeles Rams	35	1521.97	47.52%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1478.79	52.22%
24	1990-10-22	25.92	Cincinnati Bengals	34	1524.27	47.94%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	13	1478.19	51.81%
25	1990-12-02	25.91	@ Washington Redskins	42	1532.25	49.14%	Miami Dolphins	20	1596.85	50.60%