1986 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New York Giants

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1956

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1977

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

3.81 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.19 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3.13 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.13 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	12	4	.750	—	391	310	+81	8.87	+3.13
2	Cincinnati Bengals	10	6	.625	2	409	394	+15	8.39	+1.61
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	10	.375	6	307	336	-29	7.10	-1.10
4	Houston Oilers	5	11	.312	7	274	329	-55	5.67	-0.67

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	11	5	.688	—	412	307	+105	10.52	+0.48
2	New York Jets Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	364	386	-22	9.51	+0.49
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	3	430	405	+25	8.88	-0.88
4	Buffalo Bills	4	12	.250	7	287	348	-61	5.75	-1.75
5	Indianapolis Colts	3	13	.188	8	229	400	-171	4.62	-1.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	11	5	.688	—	378	327	+51	9.78	+1.22
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	358	326	+32	8.39	+1.61
3	Seattle Seahawks	10	6	.625	1	366	293	+73	8.40	+1.60
4	Los Angeles Raiders	8	8	.500	3	323	346	-23	9.07	-1.07
5	San Diego Chargers	4	12	.250	7	335	396	-61	6.68	-2.68

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	14	2	.875	—	352	187	+165	12.89	+1.11
2	Minnesota Vikings	9	7	.562	5	398	273	+125	8.43	+0.57
3	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	9	277	326	-49	7.31	-2.31
4	Green Bay Packers	4	12	.250	10	254	418	-164	5.86	-1.86
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	14	.125	12	239	473	-234	5.13	-3.13

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	14	2	0	.875	—	371	236	+135	10.19	+3.81
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	12	4	0	.750	2	368	296	+72	9.57	+2.43
3	Dallas Cowboys	7	9	0	.438	7	346	337	+9	8.46	-1.46
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	10	1	.344	8.5	256	312	-56	6.45	-0.95
5	St. Louis Cardinals	4	11	1	.281	9.5	218	351	-133	5.21	-0.71

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	5	1	.656	—	374	247	+127	10.70	-0.20
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	6	0	.625	0.5	309	267	+42	8.85	+1.15
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	8	1	.469	3	280	280	0	6.85	+0.65
4	New Orleans Saints	7	9	0	.438	3.5	288	287	+1	6.46	+0.54

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 35

Kansas City Chiefs 15

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Cleveland Browns (1st) 23

New York Jets 20

Jan 3

Denver Broncos 22

New England Patriots 17

Jan 4

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 23

Cleveland Browns (1st) 20

Jan 11

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 19

Los Angeles Rams 7

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Washington Redskins 27

Chicago Bears 13

Jan 3

New York Giants 49

San Francisco 49ers 3

Jan 4

Conference Championship

New York Giants 17

Washington Redskins 0

Jan 11

Super Bowl

New York Giants 39

Denver Broncos 20

Jan 25

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1720	14	12.89	+1.11	86.86%	6	10	12	13	14	15	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1707	14	10.19	+3.81	99.52%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1658	10.5	10.70	-0.20	46.83%	3	8	9	11	12	14	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1625	12	9.57	+2.43	94.71%	3	6	8	9	11	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1621	10	8.40	+1.60	86.52%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1613	11	10.52	+0.48	71.26%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1601	12	8.87	+3.13	97.85%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1583	11	9.78	+1.22	82.66%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1571	10	8.85	+1.15	82.01%	2	6	7	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1563	8	8.88	-0.88	43.80%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1553	10	8.39	+1.61	87.18%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1542	9	8.43	+0.57	73.08%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1540	10	8.39	+1.61	87.22%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1508	8	9.07	-1.07	40.10%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1488	10	9.51	+0.49	72.00%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1483	6	7.10	-1.10	39.23%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1479	7	8.46	-1.46	32.61%	2	5	7	8	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1458	5.5	6.45	-0.95	32.78%	0	3	5	6	8	9	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1456	7	6.46	+0.54	73.15%	1	3	5	6	8	9	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1443	7.5	6.85	+0.65	65.18%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1434	4	6.68	-2.68	13.41%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1379	5	5.67	-0.67	49.29%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1374	5	7.31	-2.31	18.46%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1368	4	5.86	-1.86	24.34%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1363	4.5	5.21	-0.71	37.22%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1329	3	4.62	-1.62	28.77%	0	2	3	4	6	7	11
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1314	4	5.75	-1.75	27.00%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1225	2	5.13	-3.13	7.40%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	4-0 (3.1 exp.)	—	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—	2-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.45%	0.67%	1.79%	1.12%	1.56%	0.67%	0.22%	6.47%
7–13	0.67%	4.91%	4.91%	5.36%	3.79%	0.67%	0.67%	20.98%
14–20	1.79%	4.91%	6.25%	7.81%	2.68%	1.34%	0.67%	25.45%
21–27	1.12%	5.36%	7.81%	3.12%	3.12%	—	0.67%	21.21%
28–34	1.56%	3.79%	2.68%	3.12%	4.02%	1.34%	0.22%	16.74%
35–41	0.67%	0.67%	1.34%	—	1.34%	0.89%	0.67%	5.58%
42+	0.22%	0.67%	0.67%	0.67%	0.22%	0.67%	0.45%	3.57%
Total	6.47%	20.98%	25.45%	21.21%	16.74%	5.58%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.52	20.52	+0.00
SD	10.62	10.62	15.21
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	17.50	+0.00
SD	11.16	7.88	12.26
CV	0.64	0.45	—
Max	37	35	+21
Min	0	6	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	21.75	-3.81
SD	7.51	8.34	7.78
CV	0.42	0.38	—
Max	33	36	+11
Min	3	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	31.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	62.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	11.69	+10.31
SD	12.25	7.61	13.48
CV	0.56	0.65	—
Max	48	31	+37
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	18.75%	—	—	25.00%	—	—	43.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.56	24.62	+0.94
SD	12.41	10.28	19.30
CV	0.49	0.42	—
Max	52	44	+31
Min	3	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.44	19.38	+5.06
SD	9.40	9.81	13.19
CV	0.38	0.51	—
Max	47	41	+31
Min	13	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	21.06	+0.56
SD	9.50	11.16	17.40
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	37	41	+31
Min	10	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.62	20.44	+3.19
SD	10.64	10.87	15.04
CV	0.45	0.53	—
Max	38	41	+26
Min	3	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.31	20.38	-3.06
SD	10.08	8.88	10.62
CV	0.58	0.44	—
Max	40	44	+21
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.88	26.12	-10.25
SD	11.36	13.26	16.47
CV	0.72	0.51	—
Max	44	55	+24
Min	3	7	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	20.56	-3.44
SD	9.67	8.37	14.18
CV	0.56	0.41	—
Max	32	31	+28
Min	0	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	25.00%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.31	25.00	-10.69
SD	8.15	6.37	10.93
CV	0.57	0.25	—
Max	30	35	+10
Min	3	14	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	20.38	+2.00
SD	8.74	8.90	12.22
CV	0.39	0.44	—
Max	42	41	+27
Min	7	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.19	21.62	-1.44
SD	10.70	9.71	11.58
CV	0.53	0.45	—
Max	37	38	+13
Min	0	10	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.31	16.69	+2.62
SD	7.88	10.62	10.25
CV	0.41	0.64	—
Max	31	37	+19
Min	0	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.88	25.31	+1.56
SD	10.76	13.87	17.45
CV	0.40	0.55	—
Max	45	51	+42
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
42+	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	43.75%	6.25%	37.50%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.88	17.06	+7.81
SD	12.03	10.04	16.70
CV	0.48	0.59	—
Max	45	44	+35
Min	0	6	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.75	19.19	+6.56
SD	7.25	11.98	15.59
CV	0.28	0.62	—
Max	34	38	+34
Min	7	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	17.94	+0.06
SD	8.05	10.36	13.01
CV	0.45	0.58	—
Max	38	33	+31
Min	6	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	18.75%	56.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.19	14.75	+8.44
SD	10.45	7.26	10.73
CV	0.45	0.49	—
Max	55	31	+32
Min	12	3	-5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	25.00%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.75	24.12	-1.38
SD	13.08	14.68	19.56
CV	0.57	0.61	—
Max	51	52	+31
Min	3	7	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	25.00%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.00	19.50	-3.50
SD	8.66	10.75	14.34
CV	0.54	0.55	—
Max	34	41	+16
Min	3	0	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.19	21.00	-1.81
SD	12.09	9.62	17.35
CV	0.63	0.46	—
Max	45	37	+24
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	—	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	24.75	-3.81
SD	12.39	13.71	15.65
CV	0.59	0.55	—
Max	50	47	+27
Min	7	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	50.00%	25.00%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.38	15.44	+7.94
SD	10.18	6.72	12.04
CV	0.44	0.44	—
Max	43	27	+26
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.88	18.31	+4.56
SD	12.20	10.93	19.89
CV	0.53	0.60	—
Max	41	38	+37
Min	7	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.62	21.94	-8.31
SD	7.19	9.99	12.67
CV	0.53	0.46	—
Max	30	43	+11
Min	6	10	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	6.25%	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.94	29.56	-14.62
SD	8.05	8.62	12.54
CV	0.54	0.29	—
Max	34	48	+6
Min	3	20	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	18.50	+4.50
SD	11.55	10.11	12.28
CV	0.50	0.55	—
Max	44	38	+27
Min	6	6	-24

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	14	10.19	+3.81
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	12	8.87	+3.13
3	Washington Redskins	12	9.57	+2.43
4	Cincinnati Bengals	10	8.39	+1.61
5	Kansas City Chiefs	10	8.39	+1.61

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	5.13	-3.13
2	San Diego Chargers	4	6.68	-2.68
3	Detroit Lions	5	7.31	-2.31
4	Green Bay Packers	4	5.86	-1.86
5	Buffalo Bills	4	5.75	-1.75

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Jets	9	Sep 21 – Nov 16	1 in 119
2	New York Giants	9	Oct 27 – Dec 20	1 in 70
3	Indianapolis Colts	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 58
4	Seattle Seahawks	5	Nov 23 – Dec 20	1 in 32
5	Denver Broncos	6	Sep 7 – Oct 12	1 in 21

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Raiders	4	Nov 30 – Dec 21	1 in 118
2	Indianapolis Colts	13	Sep 7 – Nov 30	1 in 116
3	San Diego Chargers	8	Sep 14 – Nov 2	1 in 86
4	New York Jets	5	Nov 24 – Dec 21	1 in 81
5	Green Bay Packers	6	Sep 7 – Oct 12	1 in 45

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.71%	30.35%	17.31%	6.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	36.31%	33.31%	21.13%	9.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.78%	25.16%	36.33%	24.73%
Houston Oilers	4.20%	11.18%	25.23%	59.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New England Patriots	52.10%	29.03%	15.83%	2.69%	0.35%
New York Jets	28.29%	35.76%	27.90%	6.62%	1.43%
Miami Dolphins	18.54%	29.93%	37.02%	11.67%	2.84%
Buffalo Bills	0.86%	4.21%	13.37%	48.84%	32.72%
Indianapolis Colts	0.21%	1.07%	5.88%	30.18%	62.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	40.69%	25.99%	17.45%	10.65%	5.22%
Los Angeles Raiders	24.49%	25.70%	22.18%	17.67%	9.96%
Seattle Seahawks	17.05%	21.43%	22.58%	22.61%	16.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.30%	19.80%	23.34%	24.20%	18.36%
San Diego Chargers	3.47%	7.08%	14.45%	24.87%	50.13%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	93.73%	5.65%	0.53%	0.09%	—
Minnesota Vikings	4.40%	51.97%	27.21%	12.18%	4.24%
Detroit Lions	1.46%	28.22%	35.66%	22.70%	11.96%
Green Bay Packers	0.31%	9.37%	22.52%	36.34%	31.46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.10%	4.79%	14.08%	28.69%	52.34%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	48.29%	30.00%	15.46%	5.34%	0.91%
Washington Redskins	32.40%	33.74%	22.62%	9.07%	2.17%
Dallas Cowboys	16.01%	25.43%	34.31%	18.23%	6.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.84%	8.28%	19.68%	42.03%	27.17%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.46%	2.55%	7.93%	25.33%	63.73%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	69.45%	22.28%	6.60%	1.67%
Los Angeles Rams	22.49%	45.49%	22.03%	9.99%
Atlanta Falcons	4.75%	18.39%	36.87%	39.99%
New Orleans Saints	3.31%	13.84%	34.50%	48.35%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
New England Patriots	28.46%	17.95%	13.50%	10.26%	8.39%	6.59%	4.92%	4.12%	2.48%	1.38%	1.07%	0.55%	0.27%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	17.62%	15.07%	12.36%	10.99%	9.63%	7.75%	7.40%	5.38%	4.54%	3.79%	2.59%	1.45%	1.08%	0.35%
New York Jets	13.26%	12.08%	11.59%	11.81%	11.43%	9.41%	8.25%	7.46%	5.49%	3.67%	2.55%	1.55%	1.00%	0.45%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.53%	10.14%	12.24%	10.60%	9.76%	10.89%	9.04%	8.06%	6.91%	5.84%	4.34%	3.11%	1.68%	0.86%
Los Angeles Raiders	8.69%	10.56%	10.15%	10.51%	10.06%	9.23%	8.60%	7.97%	7.38%	6.13%	4.71%	3.37%	1.94%	0.70%
Miami Dolphins	7.94%	8.64%	9.02%	9.91%	10.39%	10.33%	9.76%	9.88%	7.49%	6.25%	4.39%	3.08%	1.75%	1.17%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.94%	7.43%	9.67%	9.25%	9.68%	9.64%	9.55%	8.97%	8.98%	7.04%	5.97%	4.75%	3.03%	1.10%
Seattle Seahawks	5.85%	7.08%	7.41%	8.52%	8.61%	9.03%	8.66%	9.40%	8.69%	8.79%	6.50%	5.60%	4.15%	1.71%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.57%	6.72%	6.87%	8.15%	8.41%	8.89%	9.83%	8.80%	8.82%	9.19%	7.96%	5.72%	4.34%	1.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.20%	2.28%	3.42%	4.41%	5.69%	7.53%	8.63%	9.40%	11.70%	11.53%	11.02%	10.35%	8.60%	4.24%
San Diego Chargers	0.68%	1.29%	1.93%	2.90%	3.77%	4.45%	6.42%	7.88%	9.42%	11.68%	12.29%	14.03%	14.56%	8.70%
Houston Oilers	0.09%	0.37%	0.99%	1.38%	1.91%	2.95%	3.80%	5.39%	7.76%	9.40%	13.29%	16.74%	20.60%	15.33%
Buffalo Bills	0.16%	0.33%	0.73%	1.01%	1.78%	2.62%	3.94%	5.06%	6.95%	9.95%	14.02%	15.92%	17.04%	20.49%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.30%	0.49%	0.69%	1.20%	2.23%	3.39%	5.36%	9.30%	13.78%	19.96%	43.11%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Chicago Bears	65.67%	20.71%	7.57%	3.05%	1.57%	0.77%	0.36%	0.15%	0.08%	0.05%	0.02%	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	12.92%	25.73%	22.29%	13.42%	9.32%	5.92%	3.87%	2.99%	1.52%	0.90%	0.66%	0.37%	0.06%	0.03%
New York Giants	8.60%	19.46%	19.76%	14.95%	11.04%	8.94%	6.38%	3.91%	2.89%	2.02%	1.03%	0.66%	0.25%	0.11%
Washington Redskins	5.23%	13.40%	14.61%	14.99%	13.12%	10.73%	8.94%	6.10%	4.75%	3.41%	2.45%	1.33%	0.65%	0.29%
Los Angeles Rams	2.83%	7.06%	10.87%	13.11%	13.92%	13.36%	10.15%	8.17%	7.06%	5.45%	3.63%	2.70%	1.23%	0.46%
Dallas Cowboys	1.89%	5.92%	8.20%	10.44%	11.04%	12.15%	12.15%	10.03%	8.68%	6.73%	5.46%	3.57%	2.40%	1.34%
Minnesota Vikings	1.79%	3.85%	7.16%	11.49%	13.76%	13.37%	11.03%	10.42%	8.81%	6.19%	4.95%	3.50%	2.45%	1.23%
Detroit Lions	0.42%	1.10%	2.89%	5.99%	7.83%	9.71%	10.80%	11.38%	11.58%	9.82%	8.87%	8.30%	6.65%	4.66%
Atlanta Falcons	0.29%	0.92%	2.44%	4.09%	5.85%	7.10%	8.90%	11.41%	11.85%	10.94%	12.38%	10.92%	8.03%	4.88%
New Orleans Saints	0.10%	0.74%	1.55%	2.83%	4.09%	5.53%	8.11%	10.27%	10.93%	12.89%	12.95%	12.73%	10.31%	6.97%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.17%	0.75%	1.74%	2.99%	3.65%	4.83%	7.69%	8.74%	10.37%	12.57%	12.97%	12.58%	11.78%	9.17%
Green Bay Packers	0.06%	0.17%	0.43%	1.36%	2.52%	3.73%	5.35%	7.25%	9.40%	11.60%	13.34%	14.82%	14.55%	15.42%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.02%	0.08%	0.37%	0.71%	1.18%	1.85%	2.86%	4.20%	6.15%	8.91%	10.47%	14.82%	22.43%	25.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.11%	0.12%	0.58%	1.11%	2.01%	3.41%	4.98%	5.93%	8.52%	10.82%	13.70%	19.21%	29.49%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Chicago Bears	52.76%	19.93%	10.10%	6.24%	3.33%	2.54%	1.51%	0.95%	0.74%	0.58%	0.37%	0.33%	0.16%	0.18%	0.08%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	9.32%	11.75%	12.67%	10.65%	10.04%	7.88%	6.35%	5.96%	4.68%	4.02%	3.05%	2.92%	1.96%	1.90%	1.47%	1.46%	0.99%	0.77%	0.62%	0.40%	0.33%	0.35%	0.18%	0.17%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%
New England Patriots	8.24%	13.66%	11.09%	9.89%	8.02%	7.56%	6.04%	5.48%	4.67%	4.05%	3.79%	3.34%	2.62%	2.26%	2.15%	1.83%	1.22%	0.96%	0.70%	0.74%	0.62%	0.34%	0.30%	0.19%	0.11%	0.11%	0.02%	—
New York Giants	6.19%	7.78%	10.35%	8.78%	8.72%	8.02%	7.27%	6.30%	5.55%	5.00%	4.31%	4.33%	3.05%	3.20%	2.04%	1.94%	1.53%	1.43%	1.00%	1.01%	0.69%	0.52%	0.30%	0.33%	0.17%	0.08%	0.04%	0.07%
Denver Broncos	4.58%	8.46%	7.97%	8.15%	7.32%	6.75%	6.38%	5.89%	5.25%	4.89%	4.94%	3.54%	4.07%	3.36%	3.24%	2.67%	2.43%	1.91%	1.83%	1.66%	1.27%	1.04%	0.75%	0.52%	0.51%	0.33%	0.19%	0.10%
Washington Redskins	3.36%	5.29%	6.79%	6.80%	7.00%	6.55%	6.94%	6.41%	6.37%	6.05%	5.17%	4.76%	4.65%	4.30%	3.12%	3.10%	2.24%	2.65%	1.77%	1.74%	1.30%	1.25%	0.77%	0.68%	0.45%	0.25%	0.20%	0.04%
New York Jets	2.81%	6.66%	6.30%	6.62%	6.97%	6.32%	6.69%	6.21%	6.07%	5.97%	5.37%	4.88%	4.34%	3.87%	3.69%	3.19%	3.09%	2.20%	2.09%	1.71%	1.32%	1.11%	0.77%	0.64%	0.47%	0.33%	0.17%	0.14%
Los Angeles Raiders	2.02%	4.31%	4.94%	5.81%	5.25%	5.90%	5.73%	5.61%	5.82%	5.21%	5.31%	4.49%	4.87%	4.16%	4.67%	3.71%	3.98%	3.30%	2.96%	2.90%	2.36%	1.71%	1.63%	1.15%	1.02%	0.69%	0.36%	0.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.49%	3.30%	3.91%	5.65%	5.20%	6.79%	5.68%	6.24%	5.50%	5.61%	5.42%	5.31%	4.83%	4.81%	4.27%	4.00%	3.71%	3.23%	3.00%	2.60%	2.27%	1.95%	1.65%	1.21%	0.89%	0.67%	0.47%	0.34%
Los Angeles Rams	1.82%	2.59%	3.69%	4.04%	5.65%	5.19%	5.78%	6.22%	6.09%	6.02%	5.99%	6.47%	5.24%	4.99%	4.08%	3.89%	3.97%	3.73%	2.68%	2.86%	2.20%	1.91%	1.66%	1.15%	0.89%	0.68%	0.29%	0.23%
Miami Dolphins	1.60%	3.95%	4.51%	4.41%	5.06%	5.32%	5.12%	5.59%	5.58%	5.33%	5.75%	5.26%	5.26%	4.67%	5.11%	4.52%	3.59%	3.71%	3.23%	2.69%	2.40%	2.06%	1.67%	1.06%	0.97%	0.63%	0.56%	0.39%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.95%	2.39%	2.99%	3.90%	4.26%	5.29%	4.55%	5.60%	5.17%	5.24%	5.01%	4.78%	4.88%	5.22%	4.84%	4.65%	4.47%	4.53%	3.43%	3.44%	2.95%	3.06%	2.45%	2.04%	1.55%	1.37%	0.53%	0.46%
Dallas Cowboys	1.13%	1.70%	3.22%	3.39%	4.19%	3.80%	5.09%	4.69%	5.48%	5.39%	5.66%	5.70%	5.67%	5.56%	4.94%	4.68%	4.09%	4.56%	3.76%	3.56%	3.35%	2.71%	1.97%	1.92%	1.49%	1.05%	0.74%	0.51%
Minnesota Vikings	1.12%	1.37%	2.18%	2.86%	3.74%	4.15%	5.61%	5.16%	5.68%	6.36%	5.32%	6.14%	5.23%	5.48%	5.21%	5.46%	4.46%	4.32%	3.49%	3.58%	2.93%	2.64%	2.02%	1.67%	1.49%	1.10%	0.85%	0.38%
Seattle Seahawks	0.99%	2.92%	3.07%	4.05%	4.12%	3.99%	4.60%	4.59%	4.90%	4.27%	5.14%	4.85%	5.22%	4.39%	5.16%	4.23%	4.74%	4.11%	4.42%	3.69%	3.44%	3.02%	2.54%	2.53%	1.92%	1.57%	1.00%	0.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.91%	1.98%	2.74%	3.92%	3.61%	4.21%	4.25%	4.64%	4.31%	4.82%	5.36%	4.82%	5.05%	5.06%	4.52%	4.51%	5.02%	4.12%	4.82%	4.21%	3.61%	3.22%	3.16%	2.18%	2.12%	1.41%	1.00%	0.42%
Detroit Lions	0.18%	0.44%	0.82%	0.83%	1.32%	1.85%	2.44%	2.92%	3.35%	3.91%	4.00%	5.16%	4.66%	5.53%	5.09%	5.95%	5.32%	5.53%	5.12%	4.96%	5.08%	4.96%	4.43%	4.05%	3.98%	3.32%	2.77%	2.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.17%	0.56%	0.69%	1.25%	1.38%	2.03%	1.95%	2.53%	3.32%	3.00%	3.56%	3.84%	4.78%	4.37%	5.10%	5.00%	6.04%	5.78%	5.92%	5.30%	5.53%	5.31%	4.68%	5.02%	4.31%	3.81%	2.81%	1.96%
Atlanta Falcons	0.14%	0.19%	0.51%	0.67%	1.13%	1.42%	1.70%	1.96%	2.42%	3.04%	3.10%	3.50%	4.04%	4.63%	4.84%	5.17%	5.24%	6.32%	5.38%	6.02%	6.07%	6.35%	5.78%	5.58%	4.48%	4.72%	3.15%	2.45%
San Diego Chargers	0.06%	0.28%	0.52%	0.74%	0.95%	1.10%	1.47%	1.55%	2.02%	1.96%	2.51%	2.61%	3.83%	3.23%	4.63%	4.47%	5.16%	4.62%	6.21%	5.48%	6.34%	5.77%	6.80%	6.75%	6.74%	5.90%	4.74%	3.56%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.16%	0.29%	0.42%	0.82%	0.84%	1.23%	1.46%	1.58%	1.98%	2.64%	2.85%	3.06%	4.06%	4.47%	5.08%	5.10%	5.82%	5.70%	6.37%	6.27%	7.01%	5.98%	6.94%	5.67%	6.05%	4.32%	3.81%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.06%	0.17%	0.31%	0.43%	0.85%	0.98%	1.27%	1.21%	1.64%	2.15%	2.34%	2.65%	3.25%	3.72%	3.95%	4.46%	4.75%	5.34%	5.52%	6.41%	6.03%	6.65%	6.65%	7.01%	6.36%	6.16%	5.55%	4.13%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%	0.04%	0.09%	0.08%	0.26%	0.33%	0.65%	0.75%	0.89%	1.21%	1.38%	1.80%	2.38%	2.79%	2.85%	3.80%	4.30%	4.66%	5.50%	5.86%	6.04%	7.21%	7.36%	7.95%	7.95%	8.18%	7.93%	7.73%
Houston Oilers	0.02%	0.04%	0.10%	0.18%	0.28%	0.51%	0.59%	0.77%	0.87%	1.10%	1.34%	1.81%	1.81%	2.13%	2.64%	3.03%	3.97%	4.00%	4.91%	5.23%	6.40%	6.54%	8.10%	8.04%	8.71%	10.35%	8.34%	8.19%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.05%	0.07%	0.15%	0.29%	0.32%	0.46%	0.61%	0.83%	1.17%	1.24%	1.61%	2.13%	2.18%	2.72%	2.97%	3.61%	4.15%	5.18%	5.25%	6.58%	6.64%	8.01%	7.57%	8.34%	8.37%	9.45%	10.03%
St. Louis Cardinals	—	0.03%	—	0.05%	0.13%	0.20%	0.33%	0.30%	0.48%	0.71%	0.80%	0.93%	1.06%	1.40%	1.93%	2.21%	2.62%	3.41%	3.98%	4.58%	4.92%	5.77%	7.10%	8.34%	10.82%	11.28%	12.84%	13.78%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	—	0.08%	0.01%	0.06%	0.09%	0.22%	0.27%	0.50%	0.64%	0.76%	0.93%	1.32%	1.69%	1.90%	2.69%	2.67%	3.00%	3.69%	4.39%	5.22%	5.80%	6.83%	7.73%	9.75%	10.33%	13.75%	15.67%
Indianapolis Colts	—	—	—	0.03%	0.05%	0.07%	0.10%	0.13%	0.24%	0.32%	0.37%	0.39%	0.58%	0.86%	1.29%	1.26%	1.65%	1.81%	3.07%	3.34%	4.47%	5.09%	6.46%	7.58%	8.79%	11.23%	17.91%	22.91%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	28.46%	16.66%	6.98%	15.00%	10.33%	22.57%
Denver Broncos	17.62%	15.79%	7.28%	12.57%	10.67%	36.07%
New York Jets	13.26%	9.79%	5.24%	16.14%	13.95%	41.62%
Los Angeles Raiders	8.69%	10.83%	4.97%	12.21%	11.48%	51.82%
Miami Dolphins	7.94%	6.95%	3.65%	13.35%	12.01%	56.10%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.53%	11.88%	27.30%	3.56%	5.38%	45.35%
Seattle Seahawks	5.85%	7.32%	3.88%	9.16%	9.54%	64.25%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.94%	8.95%	22.42%	3.44%	5.72%	54.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.57%	6.39%	3.34%	8.60%	9.74%	67.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.20%	2.89%	9.69%	1.94%	3.92%	80.36%
San Diego Chargers	0.68%	1.53%	1.26%	2.40%	3.82%	90.31%
Buffalo Bills	0.16%	0.36%	0.34%	0.98%	1.78%	96.38%
Houston Oilers	0.09%	0.60%	3.51%	0.43%	1.22%	94.15%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.06%	0.14%	0.22%	0.44%	99.13%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	65.67%	20.64%	7.42%	3.48%	1.35%	1.44%
San Francisco 49ers	12.92%	26.86%	29.67%	7.77%	7.22%	15.56%
New York Giants	8.60%	20.20%	19.49%	14.52%	10.96%	26.23%
Washington Redskins	5.23%	13.96%	13.21%	15.42%	13.33%	38.85%
Los Angeles Rams	2.83%	7.28%	12.38%	12.38%	13.33%	51.80%
Dallas Cowboys	1.89%	6.15%	7.97%	10.02%	11.06%	62.91%
Minnesota Vikings	1.79%	1.50%	1.11%	17.88%	15.52%	62.20%
Detroit Lions	0.42%	0.52%	0.52%	7.62%	8.89%	82.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.29%	1.01%	3.45%	3.35%	5.58%	86.32%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.17%	0.83%	1.84%	2.66%	3.70%	90.80%
New Orleans Saints	0.10%	0.80%	2.41%	2.26%	3.97%	90.46%
Green Bay Packers	0.06%	0.10%	0.15%	1.41%	2.70%	95.58%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.02%	0.09%	0.35%	0.65%	1.22%	97.67%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.06%	0.03%	0.58%	1.17%	98.15%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	97.07%	97.07%	63.84%	39.54%	26.23%
New York Giants	66.86%	66.86%	38.94%	21.38%	14.08%
San Francisco 49ers	78.59%	78.59%	41.27%	19.42%	12.14%
New England Patriots	66.86%	66.86%	38.36%	22.80%	9.46%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	50.94%	50.94%	27.98%	15.07%	5.93%
Denver Broncos	53.55%	53.55%	29.20%	14.98%	5.77%
Washington Redskins	50.61%	50.61%	22.93%	9.60%	5.40%
Seattle Seahawks	28.34%	28.34%	16.50%	9.28%	4.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	40.97%	40.97%	19.56%	9.20%	2.99%
Miami Dolphins	31.30%	31.30%	16.12%	7.95%	2.83%
Los Angeles Rams	36.13%	36.13%	13.04%	4.75%	2.63%
Los Angeles Raiders	35.31%	35.31%	15.17%	6.20%	1.84%
Kansas City Chiefs	23.69%	23.69%	10.96%	5.05%	1.74%
New York Jets	40.59%	40.59%	16.42%	6.20%	1.55%
Minnesota Vikings	33.40%	19.56%	7.43%	2.29%	1.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.09%	16.09%	6.26%	2.35%	0.74%
Dallas Cowboys	24.43%	24.43%	6.54%	1.65%	0.63%
San Diego Chargers	6.22%	5.62%	1.91%	0.55%	0.19%
Atlanta Falcons	8.93%	7.64%	1.70%	0.49%	0.19%
New Orleans Saints	6.23%	5.48%	1.37%	0.29%	0.13%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.36%	5.20%	1.45%	0.38%	0.12%
Houston Oilers	4.74%	4.74%	1.13%	0.24%	0.07%
Detroit Lions	16.51%	5.63%	0.96%	0.12%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.66%	0.42%	0.11%	0.03%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	4.11%	1.42%	0.26%	0.04%	—
Buffalo Bills	2.76%	1.58%	0.32%	0.10%	—
St. Louis Cardinals	1.87%	1.03%	0.24%	0.04%	—
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.75%	0.35%	0.03%	0.01%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.04%	0.01%	0.08%	0.01%		0.08%	0.13%	0.03%	0.04%	0.10%	0.05%	0.10%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.11%			0.70%		0.01%	0.36%	0.83%	0.65%	0.46%	0.96%	0.10%	0.19%	0.29%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.12%	0.04%		0.56%	0.03%	0.01%	0.43%	0.68%	0.76%	0.70%	1.12%	0.09%	0.26%	0.43%
Denver Broncos	0.36%	0.56%	0.63%		0.19%	0.06%	0.79%	1.03%	2.18%	1.97%	3.51%	0.56%	0.36%	0.66%
Houston Oilers		0.01%	0.01%	0.03%			0.10%	0.09%	0.06%	0.05%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%
Indianapolis Colts		0.01%	0.01%	0.03%				0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.24%	0.47%	0.29%	0.64%	0.09%	0.10%		0.86%	1.70%	1.44%	2.52%	0.25%	0.30%	0.49%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.32%	0.52%	0.35%	0.65%	0.10%	0.09%	0.93%		1.79%	1.89%	2.77%	0.45%	0.30%	0.66%
Miami Dolphins	0.13%	0.64%	0.49%	2.00%	0.19%	0.03%	1.42%	2.11%		1.10%	1.97%	0.55%	0.69%	1.44%
New England Patriots	0.15%	0.80%	0.74%	2.56%	0.19%	0.03%	1.93%	2.93%	1.38%		1.14%	0.53%	0.66%	1.72%
New York Jets	0.22%	0.67%	0.50%	1.77%	0.19%	0.01%	1.83%	2.57%	1.35%	0.63%		0.47%	0.84%	1.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%	0.03%	0.04%	0.30%		0.02%	0.21%	0.41%	0.28%	0.19%	0.44%		0.09%	0.25%
San Diego Chargers	0.07%	0.14%	0.14%	0.20%	0.02%		0.14%	0.13%	0.30%	0.27%	0.51%	0.14%		0.09%
Seattle Seahawks	0.27%	0.57%	0.50%	0.86%	0.10%	0.09%	0.73%	1.03%	2.11%	1.82%	2.63%	0.33%	0.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.04%	0.58%	0.40%	0.08%	0.14%	0.61%	0.11%	0.24%	0.10%	0.08%	0.09%	0.02%	0.40%
Chicago Bears	0.23%		0.61%	0.18%	0.04%	0.54%	0.07%	0.10%	0.57%	0.16%	0.28%	0.06%		0.50%
Dallas Cowboys	0.56%	0.10%		1.53%	0.23%	1.22%	2.00%	0.49%	0.42%	0.15%	0.55%	0.01%	0.23%	0.93%
Detroit Lions	0.37%	0.03%	0.82%		0.05%	0.56%	0.43%	0.19%	0.39%	0.40%	0.19%	0.13%	0.06%	0.55%
Green Bay Packers	0.10%	0.01%	0.22%	0.03%		0.12%	0.13%	0.08%	0.10%	0.10%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%	0.12%
Los Angeles Rams	0.43%	0.26%	2.10%	1.97%	0.36%		3.17%	0.29%	1.63%	0.63%	0.10%	0.17%	0.17%	2.36%
Minnesota Vikings	1.26%	0.04%	2.78%	1.29%	0.30%	2.38%		0.66%	1.58%	1.05%	1.12%	0.24%	0.13%	2.33%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.02%	0.26%	0.30%	0.06%	0.20%	0.41%		0.22%	0.08%	0.07%	0.04%	0.07%	0.41%
New York Giants	1.32%	0.40%	1.65%	2.55%	0.62%	2.78%	4.52%	0.84%		0.52%	1.75%	0.23%	0.31%	1.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.14%	0.03%	0.16%	0.37%	0.08%	0.41%	0.59%	0.13%	0.12%		0.16%		0.04%	0.13%
San Francisco 49ers	0.24%	0.24%	1.50%	1.08%	0.36%	0.16%	2.06%	0.24%	0.92%	0.45%		0.14%	0.10%	1.65%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.03%	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.03%	0.11%	0.14%		0.01%	0.02%	0.04%			0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%		0.07%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%			0.04%	0.01%	0.01%			0.02%
Washington Redskins	1.31%	0.31%	1.87%	2.54%	0.78%	3.40%	4.11%	0.93%	0.67%	0.33%	1.43%	0.17%	0.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.03%	0.08%	0.09%			0.03%	0.05%				0.03%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.20%			3.64%		0.05%	1.73%	3.10%	2.09%	3.36%	3.31%		0.54%	1.54%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.18%			5.27%		0.03%	2.43%	4.02%	3.06%	5.17%	5.07%		0.64%	2.11%
Denver Broncos	0.41%	4.43%	4.83%		0.78%	0.09%			3.76%	6.82%	5.72%	2.36%
Houston Oilers	0.02%			0.21%			0.06%	0.14%	0.15%	0.19%	0.24%		0.03%	0.09%
Indianapolis Colts		0.03%	0.01%	0.02%			0.01%	0.03%						0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%	1.70%	1.68%		0.19%	0.03%			1.36%	2.98%	2.16%	0.78%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.16%	2.40%	2.35%		0.43%	0.04%			1.78%	3.82%	3.13%	1.06%
Miami Dolphins		2.16%	2.31%	3.52%	0.29%		1.85%	2.73%				1.00%	0.60%	1.66%
New England Patriots		5.58%	6.07%	7.34%	0.87%		4.47%	6.09%				2.40%	1.21%	4.33%
New York Jets		2.37%	2.59%	3.22%	0.50%		1.58%	2.84%				1.13%	0.51%	1.68%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.04%			1.04%		0.02%	0.57%	1.14%	0.67%	1.26%	0.93%		0.17%	0.42%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%	0.28%	0.36%		0.01%	0.01%			0.14%	0.54%	0.36%	0.18%
Seattle Seahawks	0.14%	2.43%	2.68%		0.54%	0.04%			2.17%	4.36%	3.25%	0.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.59%	0.23%	0.06%	0.01%		0.07%		0.35%	0.04%				0.35%
Chicago Bears	2.81%		8.16%			10.89%		2.08%	12.92%	1.92%	11.01%	0.44%		13.61%
Dallas Cowboys	0.35%	1.78%		0.17%	0.12%	1.00%	0.67%	0.23%			2.21%		0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.01%		0.10%			0.12%		0.02%	0.19%	0.06%	0.27%	0.01%		0.18%
Green Bay Packers			0.03%			0.03%			0.04%		0.05%			0.11%
Los Angeles Rams		4.50%	1.63%	0.38%	0.09%		0.95%		2.59%	0.32%		0.06%	0.02%	2.50%
Minnesota Vikings	0.28%		0.78%			0.75%		0.09%	1.52%	0.14%	2.55%	0.01%		1.31%
New Orleans Saints		0.50%	0.21%	0.03%			0.06%		0.28%	0.06%				0.23%
New York Giants	1.54%	11.23%		1.42%	0.33%	6.57%	3.80%	1.04%			12.94%		0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.04%	0.53%		0.03%		0.19%	0.11%	0.07%			0.48%
San Francisco 49ers		6.78%	6.75%	1.82%	0.45%		4.41%		10.02%	1.21%		0.27%	0.18%	9.38%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.01%	0.09%		0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%			0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers									0.01%		0.01%			0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.90%	7.23%		0.75%	0.15%	3.49%	2.04%	0.56%			7.77%		0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills			0.02%	0.01%			0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%		1.06%	1.47%	0.02%		0.66%	0.84%	0.86%	2.21%	0.99%	0.21%	0.15%	0.71%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.04%	1.16%		2.65%	0.05%	0.01%	1.07%	1.62%	1.49%	3.04%	1.83%	0.45%	0.15%	1.51%
Denver Broncos	0.04%	1.69%	2.60%		0.11%	0.01%	0.95%	1.73%	1.06%	3.05%	1.52%	0.62%	0.28%	1.32%
Houston Oilers		0.01%	0.01%	0.04%			0.03%	0.02%		0.09%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts				0.01%			0.01%					0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.67%	0.65%	0.79%	0.06%	0.01%		0.45%	0.36%	0.81%	0.45%	0.26%	0.09%	0.45%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.03%	0.80%	0.87%	1.10%	0.09%		0.39%		0.45%	1.06%	0.55%	0.25%	0.09%	0.52%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%	1.08%	1.30%	1.00%	0.09%		0.37%	0.60%		1.90%	0.69%	0.39%	0.07%	0.45%
New England Patriots	0.06%	3.12%	3.59%	3.96%	0.22%	0.04%	1.41%	1.87%	2.42%		3.12%	1.04%	0.28%	1.67%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.75%	0.98%	0.93%	0.14%		0.32%	0.59%	0.53%	1.22%		0.31%	0.06%	0.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.13%	0.12%	0.50%			0.21%	0.21%	0.29%	0.45%	0.23%		0.03%	0.18%
San Diego Chargers		0.06%	0.05%	0.09%	0.03%			0.05%	0.03%	0.13%	0.05%	0.01%		0.05%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	0.89%	1.66%	1.67%	0.08%	0.01%	0.48%	0.95%	0.67%	1.59%	0.77%	0.35%	0.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.13%	0.01%			0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.10%		0.14%			0.07%
Chicago Bears	0.53%		2.11%	0.43%	0.17%	3.50%	3.15%	0.47%	9.57%	0.48%	13.00%	0.08%	0.02%	6.03%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.58%		0.02%		0.09%	0.13%	0.03%	0.36%		0.29%			0.13%
Detroit Lions		0.07%				0.01%			0.01%		0.02%			0.01%
Green Bay Packers		0.02%	0.01%				0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	0.03%	1.36%	0.19%	0.02%			0.14%	0.03%	0.97%	0.09%	1.34%	0.01%		0.57%
Minnesota Vikings	0.02%	1.25%	0.07%	0.01%		0.06%		0.02%	0.29%	0.04%	0.33%			0.20%
New Orleans Saints		0.09%	0.03%			0.02%	0.03%		0.03%		0.04%			0.05%
New York Giants	0.22%	8.57%	1.06%	0.12%	0.01%	1.83%	0.64%	0.26%		0.27%	4.60%	0.05%		3.75%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.11%	0.03%			0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.05%		0.08%			0.05%
San Francisco 49ers	0.27%	8.68%	0.93%	0.17%	0.02%	2.04%	0.71%	0.14%	3.81%	0.16%		0.02%		2.47%
St. Louis Cardinals			0.01%			0.01%			0.01%		0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers											0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.12%	3.44%	0.44%	0.07%	0.02%	0.70%	0.28%	0.11%	2.36%	0.03%	1.99%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons				0.03%			0.02%					0.02%	0.01%		0.02%		0.05%			0.02%					0.02%
Chicago Bears		0.06%		2.63%	3.89%		3.89%			0.08%	0.01%	1.46%	1.63%		1.98%		5.47%			1.97%		0.75%	0.15%		2.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%		0.96%			0.12%		0.02%	0.01%					0.23%		0.05%		0.01%	0.60%		0.01%			0.57%				0.39%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.02%		2.23%			0.21%		0.01%						0.27%		0.20%		0.02%	1.17%		0.05%			1.05%				0.70%
Dallas Cowboys				0.05%	0.06%		0.08%					0.02%	0.06%		0.06%		0.15%			0.09%		0.01%			0.05%
Denver Broncos	0.05%		1.90%			0.18%								0.43%		0.23%		0.03%	1.21%		0.06%			1.06%		0.02%		0.60%
Detroit Lions				0.01%			0.01%										0.02%
Houston Oilers			0.02%											0.02%										0.02%				0.01%
Indianapolis Colts																			0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs			0.59%			0.05%		0.01%						0.08%					0.37%		0.01%			0.42%				0.21%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.01%		0.67%			0.04%								0.07%		0.09%		0.01%	0.40%		0.01%			0.39%				0.15%
Los Angeles Rams				0.39%	0.31%		0.39%				0.01%	0.13%	0.31%		0.13%		0.40%			0.25%		0.07%	0.01%		0.23%
Miami Dolphins	0.07%		0.96%			0.06%		0.01%						0.18%		0.04%		0.01%	0.55%		0.02%			0.60%				0.33%
Minnesota Vikings				0.05%	0.13%		0.25%					0.08%	0.12%		0.08%		0.24%			0.08%		0.03%	0.02%		0.10%
New England Patriots	0.06%		3.57%			0.25%		0.03%	0.03%					0.45%		0.30%		0.06%	1.73%		0.06%			1.81%		0.01%		1.10%
New Orleans Saints					0.04%		0.01%					0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.01%			0.03%		0.01%
New York Giants		0.01%		1.44%	2.11%		2.11%			0.04%		0.61%	0.95%		1.19%		3.12%			1.02%		0.26%	0.08%		1.14%
New York Jets	0.02%		0.58%			0.05%								0.07%		0.08%			0.33%					0.30%				0.12%
Philadelphia Eagles				0.01%	0.02%		0.01%						0.02%		0.01%		0.01%			0.02%		0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers			0.22%											0.08%		0.01%			0.16%		0.01%			0.19%				0.07%
San Diego Chargers			0.02%			0.01%								0.01%				0.01%	0.06%		0.01%			0.03%				0.04%
San Francisco 49ers		0.03%		1.08%	1.86%		1.72%			0.04%		0.67%	0.90%		1.11%		2.64%			0.77%		0.29%	0.10%		0.93%
Seattle Seahawks	0.05%		1.59%			0.05%								0.23%		0.11%		0.01%	0.71%		0.02%			0.84%		0.01%	0.01%	0.48%
Washington Redskins				0.52%	0.72%		0.72%			0.01%		0.31%	0.35%		0.53%		1.23%			0.40%		0.17%			0.44%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Chicago Bears	100.00%	62.74%	33.59%	22.67%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Giants	100.00%	62.56%	34.20%	22.44%	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	62.11%	33.27%	12.32%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	39.68%	18.47%	10.76%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	100.00%	51.02%	27.29%	10.19%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	100.00%	48.98%	24.42%	8.50%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	61.65%	22.71%	9.47%	5.96%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs	55.26%	22.65%	9.54%	3.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	38.35%	12.31%	4.27%	2.21%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	44.74%	15.24%	5.48%	1.70%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs		55.26%
New York Jets	44.74%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Rams		38.35%
Washington Redskins	61.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)			32.61%		29.50%
Denver Broncos				48.98%
Kansas City Chiefs	22.65%
New England Patriots		51.02%
New York Jets	15.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				23.80%	38.94%
Los Angeles Rams			12.31%
New York Giants		26.04%		36.52%
San Francisco 49ers	14.55%		25.13%
Washington Redskins	22.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)		17.16%		16.11%
Denver Broncos	13.84%		6.30%		4.28%
Kansas City Chiefs		4.60%		4.94%
New England Patriots	15.00%		6.81%		5.48%
New York Jets		2.80%		2.68%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		5.15%	18.77%	9.67%
Los Angeles Rams	2.49%			1.78%
New York Giants	20.18%			5.73%	8.29%
San Francisco 49ers	6.48%	2.89%	4.15%		4.95%
Washington Redskins			5.44%	4.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	New England Patriots	New York Giants	New York Jets	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		7.29%	5.79%	2.25%		6.07%		1.27%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.50%				0.75%		4.13%		2.61%	1.33%
Denver Broncos	2.71%				0.44%		2.72%		1.86%	0.77%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.03%				0.17%		1.06%		0.70%	0.29%
Los Angeles Rams		0.75%	0.57%	0.20%		0.58%		0.11%
New England Patriots	3.08%				0.58%		3.36%		2.18%	0.99%
New York Giants		7.39%	5.31%	2.22%		6.19%		1.33%
New York Jets	0.60%				0.12%		0.49%		0.36%	0.13%
San Francisco 49ers		3.39%	2.71%	1.12%		2.93%		0.61%
Washington Redskins		2.13%	1.54%	0.50%		1.33%		0.46%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 22.67% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

62.07%

Win Prob

63.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

55.88%

Win Prob

48.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

32.16%

Win Prob

67.56%

New York Giants 22.44% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.38%

Win Prob

59.24%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

59.01%

Win Prob

51.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

32.93%

Win Prob

64.15%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 12.32% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

52.50%

Win Prob

59.01%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

51.58%

Win Prob

55.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

33.52%

Win Prob

35.85%

San Francisco 49ers 10.76% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

63.33%

Win Prob

40.76%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

35.08%

Win Prob

40.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

31.51%

Win Prob

56.50%

New England Patriots 10.19% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.02%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

54.97%

Win Prob

48.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

32.97%

Win Prob

35.18%

Denver Broncos 8.50% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

56.67%

Win Prob

44.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

32.00%

Win Prob

33.87%

Washington Redskins 5.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.65%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

57.44%

Win Prob

39.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

35.74%

Win Prob

61.56%

Kansas City Chiefs 3.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.26%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

51.78%

Win Prob

42.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

32.62%

Win Prob

32.32%

Los Angeles Rams 2.21% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.35%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

58.31%

Win Prob

32.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

33.94%

Win Prob

50.00%

New York Jets 1.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.74%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

51.09%

Win Prob

39.55%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

35.29%

Win Prob

32.09%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1986-09-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-10	1418.24	1428.74	44.80%	54.04%	+31.39	1-0
1986-09-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-13	1449.63	1413.66	57.63%	41.20%	+23.43	2-0
1986-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 37-35	1473.06	1551.01	35.50%	63.34%	+11.34	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1484.40	1377.15	61.45%	37.39%	+8.24	4-0
1986-10-05	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-16	1492.64	1454.92	57.88%	40.96%	-29.33	4-1
1986-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	W 26-14	1463.31	1550.15	40.18%	58.66%	+25.74	5-1
1986-10-19	San Francisco 49ers	T 10-10	1489.05	1638.21	31.93%	66.90%	+1.10	5-1
1986-10-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-14	1490.15	1533.57	40.17%	58.67%	-13.51	5-2
1986-11-02	@ New England Patriots	L 17-25	1476.64	1625.35	26.80%	72.03%	-9.67	5-3
1986-11-09	New York Jets	L 14-28	1466.97	1643.53	28.61%	70.23%	-13.65	5-4
1986-11-16	Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1453.32	1689.73	22.11%	76.73%	-4.89	5-5
1986-11-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-20	1448.43	1605.22	25.90%	72.94%	-14.78	5-6
1986-11-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-14	1433.65	1573.53	27.81%	71.02%	+22.03	6-6
1986-12-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-28	1455.68	1259.83	77.01%	21.82%	-21.81	6-7
1986-12-14	New Orleans Saints	L 9-14	1433.87	1461.96	48.50%	50.33%	-13.76	6-8
1986-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-6	1420.11	1396.91	49.63%	49.21%	+23.36	7-8
1986-09-07	New York Jets	L 24-28	1377.62	1531.45	31.35%	67.48%	-7.99	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 33-36	1369.63	1478.23	31.57%	67.27%	-6.96	0-2
1986-09-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-10	1362.67	1390.23	48.58%	50.26%	+16.86	1-2
1986-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1379.53	1506.59	34.76%	64.08%	-7.66	1-3
1986-10-05	@ New York Jets	L 13-14	1371.87	1552.12	23.39%	75.44%	-2.99	1-4
1986-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-27	1368.88	1497.88	29.09%	69.75%	-13.37	1-5
1986-10-19	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-13	1355.51	1343.61	54.24%	44.60%	+18.79	2-5
1986-10-26	New England Patriots	L 3-23	1374.30	1612.84	21.90%	76.94%	-12.51	2-6
1986-11-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 28-34	1361.79	1304.38	54.53%	44.31%	-16.93	2-7
1986-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-12	1344.86	1457.88	36.61%	62.22%	+15.76	3-7
1986-11-16	Miami Dolphins	L 24-34	1360.62	1506.24	32.38%	66.46%	-13.04	3-8
1986-11-23	@ New England Patriots	L 19-22	1347.58	1647.44	13.30%	85.54%	-2.95	3-9
1986-11-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1344.63	1481.96	28.11%	70.73%	+15.51	4-9
1986-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1360.14	1534.14	28.91%	69.93%	-7.37	4-10
1986-12-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-24	1352.77	1281.64	56.47%	42.37%	-22.63	4-11
1986-12-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-16	1330.14	1363.49	41.57%	57.27%	-15.85	4-12
1986-09-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-31	1666.83	1490.28	75.06%	23.78%	+9.60	1-0
1986-09-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1676.43	1448.70	79.98%	18.85%	+4.17	2-0
1986-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 25-12	1680.60	1427.83	78.31%	20.53%	+9.46	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-7	1690.06	1513.07	70.28%	28.56%	+22.15	4-0
1986-10-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-0	1712.21	1512.91	77.35%	21.49%	+13.16	5-0
1986-10-12	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-7	1725.37	1370.74	86.27%	12.57%	+5.80	6-0
1986-10-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-23	1731.17	1515.68	74.58%	24.26%	-37.78	6-1
1986-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 13-7	1693.39	1441.04	82.06%	16.78%	+5.26	7-1
1986-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1698.65	1547.09	72.35%	26.48%	-15.87	7-2
1986-11-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-3	1682.78	1321.31	86.70%	12.14%	+6.95	8-2
1986-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-10	1689.73	1453.32	76.73%	22.11%	+4.89	9-2
1986-11-23	Green Bay Packers	W 12-10	1694.62	1364.62	87.42%	11.42%	+2.07	10-2
1986-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1696.69	1444.62	82.03%	16.80%	+3.72	11-2
1986-12-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-14	1700.41	1255.40	92.60%	6.24%	+4.66	12-2
1986-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1705.07	1400.47	82.75%	16.09%	+3.57	13-2
1986-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-10	1708.64	1490.56	74.85%	23.98%	+11.45	14-2
1986-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-24	1497.78	1481.00	48.70%	50.13%	-19.55	0-1
1986-09-14	Buffalo Bills	W 36-33	1478.23	1369.63	67.27%	31.57%	+6.97	1-1
1986-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-13	1485.20	1490.69	45.51%	53.33%	+27.87	2-1
1986-09-28	Chicago Bears	L 7-44	1513.07	1690.06	28.56%	70.28%	-22.14	2-2
1986-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-28	1490.93	1390.52	60.52%	38.32%	+11.94	3-2
1986-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-22	1502.87	1426.43	63.14%	35.70%	+6.42	4-2
1986-10-19	Houston Oilers	W 31-28	1509.29	1364.94	71.54%	27.30%	+6.03	5-2
1986-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-30	1515.32	1398.25	62.76%	36.08%	-36.42	5-3
1986-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1478.90	1435.78	52.49%	46.35%	+15.57	6-3
1986-11-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 28-32	1494.47	1333.92	68.31%	30.52%	-17.30	6-4
1986-11-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1477.17	1526.65	45.44%	53.40%	+35.17	7-4
1986-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1512.34	1537.64	48.91%	49.93%	+12.67	8-4
1986-11-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 28-34	1525.01	1646.52	29.99%	68.85%	-9.36	8-5
1986-12-07	@ New England Patriots	W 31-7	1515.65	1654.07	27.98%	70.85%	+43.95	9-5
1986-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-34	1559.60	1541.51	55.12%	43.72%	-38.89	9-6
1986-12-21	New York Jets	W 52-21	1520.71	1520.87	52.52%	46.32%	+32.74	10-6
1986-09-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 31-41	1490.28	1666.83	23.78%	75.06%	-9.60	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Houston Oilers	W 23-20	1480.68	1431.66	53.33%	45.50%	+10.01	1-1
1986-09-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-30	1490.69	1485.20	53.33%	45.51%	-27.87	1-2
1986-09-28	Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1462.82	1426.56	57.67%	41.16%	+9.06	2-2
1986-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1471.88	1436.87	51.33%	47.51%	+10.44	3-2
1986-10-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-7	1482.32	1497.80	50.32%	48.52%	+22.20	4-2
1986-10-19	Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1504.52	1363.65	71.14%	27.70%	-15.60	4-3
1986-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1488.92	1553.46	37.29%	61.55%	+13.50	5-3
1986-11-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-9	1502.42	1317.59	71.19%	27.64%	+13.66	6-3
1986-11-10	Miami Dolphins	W 26-16	1516.08	1525.36	51.21%	47.63%	+19.11	7-3
1986-11-16	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-27	1535.19	1582.27	39.66%	59.17%	-18.18	7-4
1986-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-31	1517.01	1456.40	61.02%	37.82%	+11.78	8-4
1986-11-30	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1528.79	1356.05	74.66%	24.18%	+5.35	9-4
1986-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1534.14	1360.14	69.93%	28.91%	+7.37	10-4
1986-12-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-3	1541.51	1559.60	43.72%	55.12%	+38.89	11-4
1986-12-21	San Diego Chargers	W 47-17	1580.40	1454.42	69.39%	29.45%	+20.57	12-4
1986-09-08	New York Giants	W 31-28	1510.86	1573.13	43.62%	55.22%	+12.12	1-0
1986-09-14	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1522.98	1470.75	53.79%	45.05%	+28.03	2-0
1986-09-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 35-37	1551.01	1473.06	63.34%	35.50%	-11.34	2-1
1986-09-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-7	1539.67	1373.37	69.01%	29.83%	+18.62	3-1
1986-10-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-29	1558.29	1621.91	37.41%	61.43%	-18.43	3-2
1986-10-12	Washington Redskins	W 30-6	1539.86	1608.57	42.71%	56.13%	+34.84	4-2
1986-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1574.70	1462.69	62.09%	36.75%	+8.10	5-2
1986-10-26	St. Louis Cardinals	W 37-6	1582.80	1363.32	79.25%	19.59%	+13.94	6-2
1986-11-02	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1596.74	1627.50	41.93%	56.90%	-9.23	6-3
1986-11-09	Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-17	1587.51	1568.26	55.28%	43.55%	-14.01	6-4
1986-11-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-21	1573.50	1450.47	63.55%	35.29%	+7.78	7-4
1986-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-41	1581.28	1607.05	42.63%	56.20%	-28.15	7-5
1986-11-27	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-31	1553.13	1501.64	59.78%	39.06%	-31.22	7-6
1986-12-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-29	1521.91	1584.03	37.61%	61.23%	-20.86	7-7
1986-12-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-23	1501.05	1458.74	58.51%	40.32%	-10.49	7-8
1986-12-21	Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1490.56	1708.64	23.98%	74.85%	-11.45	7-9
1986-09-07	Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-36	1560.85	1560.47	52.59%	46.24%	+8.30	1-0
1986-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-10	1569.15	1465.43	60.97%	37.87%	+15.98	2-0
1986-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-7	1585.13	1444.53	65.82%	33.01%	+21.44	3-0
1986-09-28	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1606.57	1601.99	53.20%	45.64%	+15.34	4-0
1986-10-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 29-14	1621.91	1558.29	61.43%	37.41%	+18.43	5-0
1986-10-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-14	1640.34	1475.87	68.79%	30.05%	+15.79	6-0
1986-10-20	@ New York Jets	L 10-22	1656.13	1575.36	57.82%	41.02%	-25.37	6-1
1986-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-13	1630.76	1608.14	55.76%	43.08%	+14.48	7-1
1986-11-02	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 21-10	1645.24	1586.87	54.66%	44.17%	+18.61	8-1
1986-11-09	San Diego Chargers	L 3-9	1663.85	1425.37	80.91%	17.93%	-25.10	8-2
1986-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-17	1638.75	1526.47	67.72%	31.11%	+18.16	9-2
1986-11-23	@ New York Giants	L 16-19	1656.91	1650.08	47.28%	51.56%	-10.39	9-3
1986-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-28	1646.52	1525.01	68.85%	29.99%	+9.36	10-3
1986-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-37	1655.88	1466.44	71.72%	27.12%	-47.19	10-4
1986-12-13	Washington Redskins	W 31-30	1608.69	1620.22	50.89%	47.95%	+6.09	11-4
1986-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-41	1614.78	1589.71	49.90%	48.94%	-31.65	11-5
1986-09-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1459.59	1447.63	48.01%	50.83%	+11.16	1-0
1986-09-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1470.75	1522.98	45.05%	53.79%	-28.03	1-1
1986-09-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-24	1442.72	1360.99	63.84%	35.00%	-16.16	1-2
1986-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-24	1426.56	1462.82	41.16%	57.67%	-9.07	1-3
1986-10-05	Houston Oilers	W 24-13	1417.49	1388.52	56.65%	42.18%	+17.78	2-3
1986-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-14	1435.27	1378.58	54.43%	44.41%	+14.93	3-3
1986-10-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-14	1450.20	1524.41	35.99%	62.84%	-9.16	3-4
1986-10-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-13	1441.04	1693.39	16.78%	82.06%	-5.26	3-5
1986-11-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1435.78	1478.90	46.35%	52.49%	-15.57	3-6
1986-11-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1420.21	1526.73	37.49%	61.35%	-17.84	3-7
1986-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-11	1402.37	1457.58	38.55%	60.29%	+10.79	4-7
1986-11-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-17	1413.16	1287.62	63.88%	34.96%	+20.40	5-7
1986-11-27	Green Bay Packers	L 40-44	1433.56	1362.55	62.42%	36.42%	-15.81	5-8
1986-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-27	1417.75	1440.89	43.00%	55.83%	-17.28	5-9
1986-12-15	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1400.47	1705.07	16.09%	82.75%	-3.56	5-10
1986-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-20	1396.91	1420.11	49.21%	49.63%	-23.37	5-11
1986-09-07	Houston Oilers	L 3-31	1499.03	1386.24	67.79%	31.05%	-45.42	0-1
1986-09-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-24	1453.61	1397.35	54.36%	44.47%	-25.78	0-2
1986-09-22	Chicago Bears	L 12-25	1427.83	1680.60	20.53%	78.31%	-9.46	0-3
1986-09-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-42	1418.37	1485.05	37.00%	61.84%	-27.85	0-4
1986-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-34	1390.52	1490.93	38.32%	60.52%	-11.94	0-5
1986-10-12	Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1378.58	1435.27	44.41%	54.43%	-14.93	0-6
1986-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1363.65	1504.52	27.70%	71.14%	+15.61	1-6
1986-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-31	1379.26	1637.11	20.06%	78.78%	-9.59	1-7
1986-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1369.67	1434.68	37.22%	61.61%	-23.21	1-8
1986-11-09	Washington Redskins	L 7-16	1346.46	1580.07	22.39%	76.45%	-8.57	1-9
1986-11-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-7	1337.89	1314.36	55.89%	42.95%	+26.73	2-9
1986-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-12	1364.62	1694.62	11.42%	87.42%	-2.07	2-10
1986-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 44-40	1362.55	1433.56	36.42%	62.42%	+15.81	3-10
1986-12-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-32	1378.36	1536.80	30.78%	68.05%	-20.00	3-11
1986-12-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-7	1358.36	1250.74	61.50%	37.34%	+17.78	4-11
1986-12-20	@ New York Giants	L 24-55	1376.14	1698.10	11.90%	86.94%	-8.48	4-12
1986-09-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-3	1386.24	1499.03	31.05%	67.79%	+45.42	1-0
1986-09-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-23	1431.66	1480.68	45.50%	53.33%	-10.01	1-1
1986-09-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-27	1421.65	1489.02	36.90%	61.93%	-17.57	1-2
1986-09-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-22	1404.08	1421.31	50.07%	48.77%	-15.56	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-24	1388.52	1417.49	42.18%	56.65%	-17.78	1-4
1986-10-12	Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1370.74	1725.37	12.57%	86.27%	-5.80	1-5
1986-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-31	1364.94	1509.29	27.30%	71.54%	-6.03	1-6
1986-10-26	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-28	1358.91	1576.71	24.01%	74.82%	-10.17	1-7
1986-11-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-28	1348.74	1510.53	25.35%	73.48%	-14.82	1-8
1986-11-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 32-28	1333.92	1494.47	30.52%	68.31%	+17.30	2-8
1986-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1351.22	1442.12	33.81%	65.03%	-14.28	2-9
1986-11-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1336.94	1293.62	58.65%	40.18%	+19.11	3-9
1986-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1356.05	1528.79	24.18%	74.66%	-5.34	3-10
1986-12-07	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-27	1350.71	1447.73	33.03%	65.81%	-21.86	3-11
1986-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-10	1328.85	1556.81	22.96%	75.88%	+34.64	4-11
1986-12-21	Buffalo Bills	W 16-7	1363.49	1330.14	57.27%	41.57%	+15.86	5-11
1986-09-07	@ New England Patriots	L 3-33	1430.30	1582.35	26.43%	72.41%	-18.46	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-30	1411.84	1542.30	28.91%	69.92%	-16.49	0-2
1986-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-24	1395.35	1558.59	30.20%	68.64%	-15.87	0-3
1986-09-28	New York Jets	L 7-26	1379.48	1534.81	31.17%	67.67%	-17.31	0-4
1986-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-35	1362.17	1645.69	14.42%	84.42%	-8.45	0-5
1986-10-12	New Orleans Saints	L 14-17	1353.72	1399.72	45.93%	52.90%	-10.11	0-6
1986-10-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-24	1343.61	1355.51	44.60%	54.24%	-18.79	0-7
1986-10-26	Miami Dolphins	L 13-17	1324.82	1503.29	28.38%	70.45%	-7.23	0-8
1986-11-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-24	1317.59	1502.42	27.64%	71.19%	-13.66	0-9
1986-11-09	New England Patriots	L 21-30	1303.93	1635.02	14.13%	84.70%	-5.42	0-10
1986-11-16	@ New York Jets	L 16-31	1298.51	1657.18	9.86%	88.98%	-4.89	0-11
1986-11-23	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-31	1293.62	1336.94	40.18%	58.65%	-19.12	0-12
1986-11-30	San Diego Chargers	L 3-17	1274.50	1433.06	30.77%	68.07%	-14.67	0-13
1986-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-23	1259.83	1455.68	21.82%	77.01%	+21.81	1-13
1986-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 24-14	1281.64	1352.77	42.37%	56.47%	+22.62	2-13
1986-12-21	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 30-24	1304.26	1532.72	18.79%	80.05%	+24.84	3-13
1986-09-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1481.00	1497.78	50.13%	48.70%	+19.54	1-0
1986-09-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1500.54	1567.49	36.96%	61.87%	-11.52	1-1
1986-09-21	Houston Oilers	W 27-13	1489.02	1421.65	61.93%	36.90%	+17.57	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-17	1506.59	1379.53	64.08%	34.76%	+7.67	3-1
1986-10-05	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-24	1514.26	1538.65	49.04%	49.80%	-16.46	3-2
1986-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-20	1497.80	1482.32	48.52%	50.32%	-22.20	3-3
1986-10-19	San Diego Chargers	W 42-41	1475.60	1460.08	54.75%	44.08%	+5.60	4-3
1986-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1481.20	1312.70	74.21%	24.63%	+8.31	5-3
1986-11-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-23	1489.51	1430.98	54.69%	44.15%	+5.61	6-3
1986-11-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-7	1495.12	1557.99	43.53%	55.30%	+31.35	7-3
1986-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-38	1526.47	1638.75	31.11%	67.72%	-18.17	7-4
1986-11-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-23	1508.30	1339.19	69.35%	29.49%	-26.34	7-5
1986-11-30	Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1481.96	1344.63	70.73%	28.11%	-15.52	7-6
1986-12-07	Denver Broncos	W 37-10	1466.44	1655.88	27.12%	71.72%	+47.19	8-6
1986-12-14	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 20-17	1513.63	1545.24	41.81%	57.02%	+12.52	9-6
1986-12-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-19	1526.15	1496.67	50.53%	48.31%	+13.71	10-6
1986-09-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 36-38	1560.47	1560.85	46.24%	52.59%	-8.30	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-10	1552.17	1563.97	44.61%	54.23%	-11.33	0-2
1986-09-21	New York Giants	L 9-14	1540.84	1580.77	46.80%	52.03%	-13.29	0-3
1986-09-28	San Diego Chargers	W 17-13	1527.55	1509.27	55.14%	43.69%	+11.10	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-17	1538.65	1514.26	49.80%	49.04%	+16.47	2-3
1986-10-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 14-10	1555.12	1607.24	45.06%	53.78%	+13.63	3-3
1986-10-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-28	1568.75	1511.25	54.54%	44.30%	+7.96	4-3
1986-10-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 28-17	1576.71	1358.91	74.82%	24.01%	+10.16	5-3
1986-11-02	Denver Broncos	L 10-21	1586.87	1645.24	44.17%	54.66%	-18.61	5-4
1986-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-13	1568.26	1587.51	43.55%	55.28%	+14.01	6-4
1986-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-14	1582.27	1535.19	59.17%	39.66%	+18.19	7-4
1986-11-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-31	1600.46	1442.69	67.97%	30.87%	+9.64	8-4
1986-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-33	1610.10	1436.60	74.74%	24.10%	-23.19	8-5
1986-12-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-37	1586.91	1532.86	54.05%	44.79%	-41.67	8-6
1986-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1545.24	1513.63	57.02%	41.81%	-12.52	8-7
1986-12-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-30	1532.72	1304.26	80.05%	18.79%	-24.83	8-8
1986-09-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-10	1534.21	1425.24	61.68%	37.16%	+11.58	1-0
1986-09-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1545.79	1630.01	40.54%	58.30%	+12.80	2-0
1986-09-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-7	1558.59	1395.35	68.64%	30.20%	+15.86	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-34	1574.45	1423.09	67.18%	31.66%	-31.82	3-1
1986-10-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-20	1542.63	1368.91	74.76%	24.08%	+7.52	4-1
1986-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-26	1550.15	1463.31	58.66%	40.18%	-25.74	4-2
1986-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 14-10	1524.41	1450.20	62.84%	35.99%	+9.16	5-2
1986-10-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-7	1533.57	1490.15	58.67%	40.17%	+13.52	6-2
1986-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1547.09	1698.65	26.48%	72.35%	+15.87	7-2
1986-11-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-6	1562.96	1462.65	60.51%	38.33%	-18.78	7-3
1986-11-16	New England Patriots	L 28-30	1544.18	1640.44	38.88%	59.96%	-6.99	7-4
1986-11-23	New Orleans Saints	W 26-13	1537.19	1494.60	58.55%	40.28%	+18.47	8-4
1986-11-30	@ New York Jets	W 17-3	1555.66	1607.82	38.97%	59.87%	+28.37	9-4
1986-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 29-10	1584.03	1521.91	61.23%	37.61%	+20.86	10-4
1986-12-14	Miami Dolphins	L 31-37	1604.89	1561.99	58.60%	40.24%	-18.18	10-5
1986-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1586.71	1642.38	38.49%	60.35%	-15.48	10-6
1986-09-07	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-50	1575.81	1505.31	56.38%	42.46%	-33.51	0-1
1986-09-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-10	1542.30	1411.84	69.92%	28.91%	+16.49	1-1
1986-09-21	@ New York Jets	L 45-51	1558.79	1518.64	52.06%	46.77%	-16.18	1-2
1986-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-31	1542.61	1625.65	40.71%	58.13%	-20.04	1-3
1986-10-05	@ New England Patriots	L 7-34	1522.57	1586.65	37.35%	61.49%	-24.69	1-4
1986-10-12	Buffalo Bills	W 27-14	1497.88	1368.88	69.75%	29.09%	+13.37	2-4
1986-10-19	Los Angeles Raiders	L 28-30	1511.25	1568.75	44.30%	54.54%	-7.96	2-5
1986-10-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-13	1503.29	1324.82	70.45%	28.38%	+7.24	3-5
1986-11-02	Houston Oilers	W 28-7	1510.53	1348.74	73.48%	25.35%	+14.83	4-5
1986-11-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-26	1525.36	1516.08	47.63%	51.21%	-19.12	4-6
1986-11-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-24	1506.24	1360.62	66.46%	32.38%	+13.04	5-6
1986-11-24	New York Jets	W 45-3	1519.28	1662.07	32.74%	66.10%	+54.25	6-6
1986-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1573.53	1433.65	71.02%	27.81%	-22.03	6-7
1986-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-27	1551.50	1472.45	57.58%	41.26%	+10.49	7-7
1986-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-31	1561.99	1604.89	40.24%	58.60%	+18.18	8-7
1986-12-22	New England Patriots	L 27-34	1580.17	1595.95	50.28%	48.56%	-16.87	8-8
1986-09-07	Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1447.63	1459.59	50.83%	48.01%	-11.17	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-10	1436.46	1381.43	54.19%	44.65%	+20.45	1-1
1986-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-7	1456.91	1449.46	53.61%	45.23%	+28.14	2-1
1986-09-28	Green Bay Packers	W 42-7	1485.05	1418.37	61.84%	37.00%	+27.86	3-1
1986-10-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-23	1512.91	1712.21	21.49%	77.35%	-13.17	3-2
1986-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1499.74	1654.14	26.17%	72.67%	+15.94	4-2
1986-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 23-7	1515.68	1731.17	24.26%	74.58%	+37.78	5-2
1986-10-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-23	1553.46	1488.92	61.55%	37.29%	-13.50	5-3
1986-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 38-44	1539.96	1566.84	42.48%	56.36%	-13.23	5-4
1986-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1526.73	1420.21	61.35%	37.49%	+17.85	6-4
1986-11-16	New York Giants	L 20-22	1544.58	1643.15	38.57%	60.27%	-6.94	6-5
1986-11-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-24	1537.64	1512.34	49.93%	48.91%	-12.67	6-6
1986-11-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 45-13	1524.97	1267.23	82.49%	16.35%	+11.83	7-6
1986-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 32-6	1536.80	1378.36	68.05%	30.78%	+20.01	8-6
1986-12-14	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-23	1556.81	1328.85	75.88%	22.96%	-34.65	8-7
1986-12-21	New Orleans Saints	W 33-17	1522.16	1475.72	59.08%	39.75%	+20.22	9-7
1986-09-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 33-3	1582.35	1430.30	72.41%	26.43%	+18.47	1-0
1986-09-11	@ New York Jets	W 20-6	1600.82	1539.44	55.09%	43.75%	+20.79	2-0
1986-09-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 31-38	1621.61	1579.01	58.55%	40.28%	-19.62	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-27	1601.99	1606.57	45.64%	53.20%	-15.34	2-2
1986-10-05	Miami Dolphins	W 34-7	1586.65	1522.57	61.49%	37.35%	+24.69	3-2
1986-10-12	New York Jets	L 24-31	1611.34	1555.11	60.43%	38.41%	-20.25	3-3
1986-10-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-0	1591.09	1420.00	69.58%	29.25%	+21.75	4-3
1986-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-3	1612.84	1374.30	76.94%	21.90%	+12.51	5-3
1986-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 25-17	1625.35	1476.64	72.03%	26.80%	+9.67	6-3
1986-11-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-21	1635.02	1303.93	84.70%	14.13%	+5.42	7-3
1986-11-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-28	1640.44	1544.18	59.96%	38.88%	+7.00	8-3
1986-11-23	Buffalo Bills	W 22-19	1647.44	1347.58	85.54%	13.30%	+2.95	9-3
1986-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1650.39	1476.13	69.96%	28.88%	+3.68	10-3
1986-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-31	1654.07	1515.65	70.85%	27.98%	-43.95	10-4
1986-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-29	1610.12	1628.21	49.94%	48.89%	-14.17	10-5
1986-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-27	1595.95	1580.17	48.56%	50.28%	+16.87	11-5
1986-09-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-31	1428.74	1418.24	54.04%	44.80%	-31.39	0-1
1986-09-14	Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1397.35	1453.61	44.47%	54.36%	+25.78	1-1
1986-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-26	1423.13	1617.22	22.00%	76.84%	-8.43	1-2
1986-09-28	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1414.70	1594.06	23.49%	75.35%	-5.19	1-3
1986-10-05	Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1409.51	1598.78	27.13%	71.70%	-9.79	1-4
1986-10-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-14	1399.72	1353.72	52.90%	45.93%	+10.10	2-4
1986-10-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-7	1409.82	1338.47	62.46%	36.37%	+25.78	3-4
1986-10-26	@ New York Jets	L 23-28	1435.60	1600.74	24.99%	73.85%	-7.14	3-5
1986-11-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-10	1428.46	1646.70	23.97%	74.87%	+34.19	4-5
1986-11-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 6-0	1462.65	1562.96	38.33%	60.51%	+18.77	5-5
1986-11-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-7	1481.42	1352.37	64.34%	34.50%	+13.18	6-5
1986-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-26	1494.60	1537.19	40.28%	58.55%	-18.47	6-6
1986-11-30	New England Patriots	L 20-21	1476.13	1650.39	28.88%	69.96%	-3.68	6-7
1986-12-07	Miami Dolphins	L 27-31	1472.45	1551.50	41.26%	57.58%	-10.49	6-8
1986-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-9	1461.96	1433.87	50.33%	48.50%	+13.76	7-8
1986-12-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-33	1475.72	1522.16	39.75%	59.08%	-20.22	7-9
1986-09-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 28-31	1573.13	1510.86	55.22%	43.62%	-12.12	0-1
1986-09-14	San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1561.01	1538.82	55.70%	43.14%	+19.76	1-1
1986-09-21	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 14-9	1580.77	1540.84	52.03%	46.80%	+13.29	2-1
1986-09-28	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1594.06	1414.70	75.35%	23.49%	+5.19	3-1
1986-10-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 13-6	1599.25	1354.74	77.52%	21.32%	+7.20	4-1
1986-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-3	1606.45	1484.25	68.94%	29.90%	+21.56	5-1
1986-10-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 12-17	1628.01	1593.61	51.24%	47.60%	-14.53	5-2
1986-10-27	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1613.48	1580.86	57.16%	41.67%	+14.02	6-2
1986-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-14	1627.50	1596.74	56.90%	41.93%	+9.23	7-2
1986-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1636.73	1463.99	69.78%	29.06%	+6.42	8-2
1986-11-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 22-20	1643.15	1544.58	60.27%	38.57%	+6.93	9-2
1986-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1650.08	1656.91	51.56%	47.28%	+10.40	10-2
1986-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-17	1660.48	1620.00	52.11%	46.73%	+11.86	11-2
1986-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1672.34	1639.41	51.03%	47.81%	+19.19	12-2
1986-12-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-7	1691.53	1362.37	87.37%	11.47%	+6.57	13-2
1986-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 55-24	1698.10	1376.14	86.94%	11.90%	+8.48	14-2
1986-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-24	1531.45	1377.62	67.48%	31.35%	+7.99	1-0
1986-09-11	New England Patriots	L 6-20	1539.44	1600.82	43.75%	55.09%	-20.80	1-1
1986-09-21	Miami Dolphins	W 51-45	1518.64	1558.79	46.77%	52.06%	+16.17	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 26-7	1534.81	1379.48	67.67%	31.17%	+17.31	3-1
1986-10-05	Buffalo Bills	W 14-13	1552.12	1371.87	75.44%	23.39%	+2.99	4-1
1986-10-12	@ New England Patriots	W 31-24	1555.11	1611.34	38.41%	60.43%	+20.25	5-1
1986-10-20	Denver Broncos	W 22-10	1575.36	1656.13	41.02%	57.82%	+25.38	6-1
1986-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 28-23	1600.74	1435.60	73.85%	24.99%	+7.13	7-1
1986-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 38-7	1607.87	1593.66	48.33%	50.50%	+35.66	8-1
1986-11-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-14	1643.53	1466.97	70.23%	28.61%	+13.65	9-1
1986-11-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-16	1657.18	1298.51	88.98%	9.86%	+4.89	10-1
1986-11-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-45	1662.07	1519.28	66.10%	32.74%	-54.25	10-2
1986-11-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-17	1607.82	1555.66	59.87%	38.97%	-28.37	10-3
1986-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-24	1579.45	1608.13	42.22%	56.61%	-20.08	10-4
1986-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-45	1559.37	1458.17	66.34%	32.50%	-38.50	10-5
1986-12-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-52	1520.87	1520.71	46.32%	52.52%	-32.74	10-6
1986-09-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-41	1473.20	1539.48	37.05%	61.78%	-24.50	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1448.70	1676.43	18.85%	79.98%	-4.17	0-2
1986-09-21	Denver Broncos	L 7-33	1444.53	1585.13	33.01%	65.82%	-21.44	0-3
1986-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-20	1423.09	1574.45	31.66%	67.18%	+31.83	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-0	1454.92	1492.64	40.96%	57.88%	+29.33	2-3
1986-10-12	@ New York Giants	L 3-35	1484.25	1606.45	29.90%	68.94%	-21.56	2-4
1986-10-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1462.69	1574.70	36.75%	62.09%	-8.10	2-5
1986-10-26	San Diego Chargers	W 23-7	1454.59	1454.48	52.56%	46.28%	+23.50	3-5
1986-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-13	1478.09	1349.38	64.29%	34.54%	-14.10	3-6
1986-11-09	New York Giants	L 14-17	1463.99	1636.73	29.06%	69.78%	-6.41	3-7
1986-11-16	Detroit Lions	L 11-13	1457.58	1402.37	60.29%	38.55%	-10.80	3-8
1986-11-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-24	1446.78	1491.47	39.99%	58.84%	-10.18	3-9
1986-11-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 33-27	1436.60	1610.10	24.10%	74.74%	+23.19	4-9
1986-12-07	St. Louis Cardinals	T 10-10	1459.79	1361.33	65.99%	32.84%	-1.05	4-9
1986-12-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-21	1458.74	1501.05	40.32%	58.51%	+10.49	5-9
1986-12-21	Washington Redskins	L 14-21	1469.23	1614.14	32.47%	66.37%	-10.95	5-10
1986-09-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-30	1493.09	1539.83	39.71%	59.13%	-27.66	0-1
1986-09-15	Denver Broncos	L 10-21	1465.43	1569.15	37.87%	60.97%	-15.97	0-2
1986-09-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1449.46	1456.91	45.23%	53.61%	-28.15	0-3
1986-09-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 22-16	1421.31	1404.08	48.77%	50.07%	+15.56	1-3
1986-10-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1436.87	1471.88	47.51%	51.33%	-10.44	1-4
1986-10-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 22-24	1426.43	1502.87	35.70%	63.14%	-6.43	1-5
1986-10-19	New England Patriots	L 0-34	1420.00	1591.09	29.25%	69.58%	-21.75	1-6
1986-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-9	1398.25	1515.32	36.08%	62.76%	+36.43	2-6
1986-11-02	Green Bay Packers	W 27-3	1434.68	1369.67	61.61%	37.22%	+23.20	3-6
1986-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-16	1457.88	1344.86	62.22%	36.61%	-15.76	3-7
1986-11-16	Houston Oilers	W 21-10	1442.12	1351.22	65.03%	33.81%	+14.28	4-7
1986-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-37	1456.40	1517.01	37.82%	61.02%	-11.78	4-8
1986-11-30	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1444.62	1696.69	16.80%	82.03%	-3.73	4-9
1986-12-07	Detroit Lions	W 27-17	1440.89	1417.75	55.83%	43.00%	+17.28	5-9
1986-12-13	@ New York Jets	W 45-24	1458.17	1559.37	32.50%	66.34%	+38.50	6-9
1986-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-24	1496.67	1526.15	48.31%	50.53%	-13.71	6-10
1986-09-07	Miami Dolphins	W 50-28	1505.31	1575.81	42.46%	56.38%	+33.51	1-0
1986-09-14	@ New York Giants	L 7-20	1538.82	1561.01	43.14%	55.70%	-19.76	1-1
1986-09-21	Washington Redskins	L 27-30	1519.06	1575.31	44.47%	54.36%	-9.79	1-2
1986-09-28	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-17	1509.27	1527.55	43.69%	55.14%	-11.10	1-3
1986-10-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-33	1498.17	1584.95	34.34%	64.49%	-22.30	1-4
1986-10-12	Denver Broncos	L 14-31	1475.87	1640.34	30.05%	68.79%	-15.79	1-5
1986-10-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 41-42	1460.08	1475.60	44.08%	54.75%	-5.60	1-6
1986-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1454.48	1454.59	46.28%	52.56%	-23.50	1-7
1986-11-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-24	1430.98	1489.51	44.15%	54.69%	-5.61	1-8
1986-11-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 9-3	1425.37	1663.85	17.93%	80.91%	+25.10	2-8
1986-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1450.47	1573.50	35.29%	63.55%	-7.78	2-9
1986-11-20	Los Angeles Raiders	L 31-37	1442.69	1600.46	30.87%	67.97%	-9.63	2-10
1986-11-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-3	1433.06	1274.50	68.07%	30.77%	+14.67	3-10
1986-12-07	Houston Oilers	W 27-0	1447.73	1350.71	65.81%	33.03%	+21.86	4-10
1986-12-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-34	1469.59	1574.54	37.70%	61.14%	-15.17	4-11
1986-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-47	1454.42	1580.40	29.45%	69.39%	-20.56	4-12
1986-09-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-7	1615.05	1396.39	74.91%	23.92%	+14.96	1-0
1986-09-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-16	1630.01	1545.79	58.30%	40.54%	-12.79	1-1
1986-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 26-17	1617.22	1423.13	76.84%	22.00%	+8.43	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-16	1625.65	1542.61	58.13%	40.71%	+20.04	3-1
1986-10-05	Indianapolis Colts	W 35-14	1645.69	1362.17	84.42%	14.42%	+8.45	4-1
1986-10-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1654.14	1499.74	72.67%	26.17%	-15.93	4-2
1986-10-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	T 10-10	1638.21	1489.05	66.90%	31.93%	-1.10	4-2
1986-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1637.11	1379.26	78.78%	20.06%	+9.59	5-2
1986-11-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-23	1646.70	1428.46	74.87%	23.97%	-34.19	5-3
1986-11-09	St. Louis Cardinals	W 43-17	1612.51	1363.48	81.79%	17.05%	+11.12	6-3
1986-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1623.63	1588.64	51.32%	47.51%	-18.41	6-4
1986-11-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-0	1605.22	1448.43	72.94%	25.90%	+14.78	7-4
1986-12-01	New York Giants	L 17-21	1620.00	1660.48	46.73%	52.11%	-11.87	7-5
1986-12-07	New York Jets	W 24-10	1608.13	1579.45	56.61%	42.22%	+20.08	8-5
1986-12-14	@ New England Patriots	W 29-24	1628.21	1610.12	48.89%	49.94%	+14.17	9-5
1986-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1642.38	1586.71	60.35%	38.49%	+15.48	10-5
1986-09-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-0	1539.83	1493.09	59.13%	39.71%	+27.66	1-0
1986-09-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-17	1567.49	1500.54	61.87%	36.96%	+11.52	2-0
1986-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 38-31	1579.01	1621.61	40.28%	58.55%	+19.63	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-19	1598.64	1585.09	48.24%	50.60%	-13.69	3-1
1986-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 33-7	1584.95	1498.17	64.49%	34.34%	+22.29	4-1
1986-10-12	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-14	1607.24	1555.12	53.78%	45.06%	-13.63	4-2
1986-10-19	New York Giants	W 17-12	1593.61	1628.01	47.60%	51.24%	+14.53	5-2
1986-10-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1608.14	1630.76	43.08%	55.76%	-14.48	5-3
1986-11-02	New York Jets	L 7-38	1593.66	1607.87	50.50%	48.33%	-35.67	5-4
1986-11-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-27	1557.99	1495.12	55.30%	43.53%	-31.34	5-5
1986-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-34	1526.65	1477.17	53.40%	45.44%	-35.18	5-6
1986-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1491.47	1446.78	58.84%	39.99%	+10.17	6-6
1986-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-14	1501.64	1553.13	39.06%	59.78%	+31.22	7-6
1986-12-08	Los Angeles Raiders	W 37-0	1532.86	1586.91	44.79%	54.05%	+41.68	8-6
1986-12-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-24	1574.54	1469.59	61.14%	37.70%	+15.17	9-6
1986-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 41-16	1589.71	1614.78	48.94%	49.90%	+31.65	10-6
1986-09-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-16	1425.24	1534.21	37.16%	61.68%	-11.58	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-33	1413.66	1449.63	41.20%	57.63%	-23.43	0-2
1986-09-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-17	1390.23	1362.67	50.26%	48.58%	-16.86	0-3
1986-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1373.37	1539.67	29.83%	69.01%	-18.63	0-4
1986-10-05	New York Giants	L 6-13	1354.74	1599.25	21.32%	77.52%	-7.21	0-5
1986-10-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-19	1347.53	1361.39	44.32%	54.52%	+22.92	1-5
1986-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1370.45	1573.73	21.10%	77.73%	-7.13	1-6
1986-10-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-37	1363.32	1582.80	19.59%	79.25%	-13.94	1-7
1986-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1349.38	1478.09	34.54%	64.29%	+14.10	2-7
1986-11-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-43	1363.48	1612.51	17.05%	81.79%	-11.11	2-8
1986-11-16	New Orleans Saints	L 7-16	1352.37	1481.42	34.50%	64.34%	-13.18	2-9
1986-11-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-14	1339.19	1508.30	29.49%	69.35%	+26.34	3-9
1986-11-30	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1365.53	1635.21	18.99%	79.85%	-4.20	3-10
1986-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 10-10	1361.33	1459.79	32.84%	65.99%	+1.04	3-10
1986-12-14	@ New York Giants	L 7-27	1362.37	1691.53	11.47%	87.37%	-6.57	3-11
1986-12-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-17	1355.80	1232.96	69.01%	29.82%	+7.61	4-11
1986-09-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-31	1396.39	1615.05	23.92%	74.91%	-14.96	0-1
1986-09-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1381.43	1436.46	44.65%	54.19%	-20.44	0-2
1986-09-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1360.99	1442.72	35.00%	63.84%	+16.16	1-2
1986-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1377.15	1484.40	37.39%	61.45%	-8.24	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1368.91	1542.63	24.08%	74.76%	-7.52	1-4
1986-10-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 19-30	1361.39	1347.53	54.52%	44.32%	-22.92	1-5
1986-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-38	1338.47	1409.82	36.37%	62.46%	-25.77	1-6
1986-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1312.70	1481.20	24.63%	74.21%	-8.32	1-7
1986-11-02	Buffalo Bills	W 34-28	1304.38	1361.79	44.31%	54.53%	+16.93	2-7
1986-11-09	Chicago Bears	L 3-23	1321.31	1682.78	12.14%	86.70%	-6.95	2-8
1986-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-31	1314.36	1337.89	42.95%	55.89%	-26.74	2-9
1986-11-23	Detroit Lions	L 17-38	1287.62	1413.16	34.96%	63.88%	-20.39	2-10
1986-11-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-45	1267.23	1524.97	16.35%	82.49%	-11.83	2-11
1986-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-48	1255.40	1700.41	6.24%	92.60%	-4.66	2-12
1986-12-14	Green Bay Packers	L 7-21	1250.74	1358.36	37.34%	61.50%	-17.78	2-13
1986-12-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-21	1232.96	1355.80	29.82%	69.01%	-7.60	2-14
1986-09-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-14	1539.48	1473.20	61.78%	37.05%	+24.49	1-0
1986-09-14	Los Angeles Raiders	W 10-6	1563.97	1552.17	54.23%	44.61%	+11.34	2-0
1986-09-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 30-27	1575.31	1519.06	54.36%	44.47%	+9.78	3-0
1986-09-28	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-14	1585.09	1598.64	50.60%	48.24%	+13.69	4-0
1986-10-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-6	1598.78	1409.51	71.70%	27.13%	+9.79	5-0
1986-10-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-30	1608.57	1539.86	56.13%	42.71%	-34.84	5-1
1986-10-19	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-21	1573.73	1370.45	77.73%	21.10%	+7.13	6-1
1986-10-27	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1580.86	1613.48	41.67%	57.16%	-14.02	6-2
1986-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 44-38	1566.84	1539.96	56.36%	42.48%	+13.23	7-2
1986-11-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-7	1580.07	1346.46	76.45%	22.39%	+8.57	8-2
1986-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-6	1588.64	1623.63	47.51%	51.32%	+18.41	9-2
1986-11-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-14	1607.05	1581.28	56.20%	42.63%	+28.16	10-2
1986-11-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-17	1635.21	1365.53	79.85%	18.99%	+4.20	11-2
1986-12-07	New York Giants	L 14-24	1639.41	1672.34	47.81%	51.03%	-19.19	11-3
1986-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 30-31	1620.22	1608.69	47.95%	50.89%	-6.08	11-4
1986-12-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-14	1614.14	1469.23	66.37%	32.47%	+10.94	12-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1987-01-03	Washington Redskins	L 13-27	1720.09	1642.15	63.96%	36.04%	-30.01	0-1
1987-01-03	New York Jets	W 23-20	1600.97	1518.58	64.55%	35.45%	+7.69	1-0
1987-01-11	Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1608.66	1597.47	54.73%	45.27%	-11.88	1-1
1987-01-04	New England Patriots	W 22-17	1583.13	1612.82	48.86%	51.14%	+14.34	1-0
1987-01-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-20	1597.47	1608.66	45.27%	54.73%	+11.89	2-0
1987-01-25	@ New York Giants	L 20-39	1609.36	1759.89	29.60%	70.40%	-16.18	2-1
1986-12-28	@ New York Jets	L 15-35	1539.86	1488.13	54.30%	45.70%	-30.46	0-1
1986-12-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-19	1571.23	1625.08	39.29%	60.71%	-17.07	0-1
1987-01-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-22	1612.82	1583.13	51.14%	48.86%	-14.34	0-1
1987-01-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 49-3	1706.58	1657.86	60.00%	40.00%	+34.02	1-0
1987-01-11	Washington Redskins	W 17-0	1740.60	1672.16	62.69%	37.31%	+19.29	2-0
1987-01-25	Denver Broncos	W 39-20	1759.89	1609.36	70.40%	29.60%	+16.17	3-0
1986-12-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-15	1488.13	1539.86	45.70%	54.30%	+30.45	1-0
1987-01-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-23	1518.58	1600.97	35.45%	64.55%	-7.70	1-1
1987-01-04	@ New York Giants	L 3-49	1657.86	1706.58	40.00%	60.00%	-34.02	0-1
1986-12-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-7	1625.08	1571.23	60.71%	39.29%	+17.07	1-0
1987-01-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-13	1642.15	1720.09	36.04%	63.96%	+30.01	2-0
1987-01-11	@ New York Giants	L 0-17	1672.16	1740.60	37.31%	62.69%	-19.29	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1986-11-09	17.93%	San Diego Chargers	1425.37	9	@ Denver Broncos	1663.85	3
2	1986-12-21	18.79%	Indianapolis Colts	1304.26	30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1532.72	24
3	1986-12-07	21.82%	Indianapolis Colts	1259.83	28	@ Atlanta Falcons	1455.68	23
4	1986-12-14	22.96%	@ Houston Oilers	1328.85	23	Minnesota Vikings	1556.81	10
5	1986-11-02	23.97%	@ New Orleans Saints	1428.46	23	San Francisco 49ers	1646.70	10
6	1986-11-30	24.10%	Philadelphia Eagles	1436.60	33	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1610.10	27
7	1986-10-19	24.26%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1515.68	23	Chicago Bears	1731.17	7
8	1986-10-12	26.17%	Minnesota Vikings	1499.74	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1654.14	24
9	1986-11-03	26.48%	Los Angeles Rams	1547.09	20	@ Chicago Bears	1698.65	17
10	1986-12-07	27.12%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1466.44	37	Denver Broncos	1655.88	10
11	1986-10-19	27.70%	Green Bay Packers	1363.65	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1504.52	14
12	1986-11-30	27.81%	Atlanta Falcons	1433.65	20	@ Miami Dolphins	1573.53	14
13	1986-12-07	27.98%	Cincinnati Bengals	1515.65	31	@ New England Patriots	1654.07	7
14	1986-11-30	28.11%	Buffalo Bills	1344.63	17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1481.96	14
15	1986-11-23	29.49%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1339.19	23	Kansas City Chiefs	1508.30	14
16	1986-11-09	30.52%	@ Houston Oilers	1333.92	32	Cincinnati Bengals	1494.47	28
17	1986-09-07	31.05%	Houston Oilers	1386.24	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1499.03	3
18	1986-09-28	31.66%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1423.09	34	Los Angeles Rams	1574.45	20
19	1986-12-13	32.50%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1458.17	45	@ New York Jets	1559.37	24
20	1986-11-24	32.74%	@ Miami Dolphins	1519.28	45	New York Jets	1662.07	3
21	1986-11-02	34.54%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1349.38	13	Philadelphia Eagles	1478.09	10
22	1986-09-21	35.00%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1360.99	24	@ Detroit Lions	1442.72	20
23	1986-09-21	35.50%	Atlanta Falcons	1473.06	37	@ Dallas Cowboys	1551.01	35
24	1987-01-03 *	36.04%	Washington Redskins	1642.15	27	@ Chicago Bears	1720.09	13
25	1986-10-26	36.08%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1398.25	30	Cincinnati Bengals	1515.32	9

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1986-11-24	54.25	@ Miami Dolphins	45	1519.28	32.74%	New York Jets	3	1662.07	66.10%
2	1986-12-07	47.19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	37	1466.44	27.12%	Denver Broncos	10	1655.88	71.72%
3	1986-09-07	45.42	Houston Oilers	31	1386.24	31.05%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1499.03	67.79%
4	1986-12-07	43.95	Cincinnati Bengals	31	1515.65	27.98%	@ New England Patriots	7	1654.07	70.85%
5	1986-12-08	41.68	@ Seattle Seahawks	37	1532.86	44.79%	Los Angeles Raiders	0	1586.91	54.05%
6	1986-12-14	38.89	Cleveland Browns (1st)	34	1541.51	43.72%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1559.60	55.12%
7	1986-12-13	38.50	Pittsburgh Steelers	45	1458.17	32.50%	@ New York Jets	24	1559.37	66.34%
8	1986-10-19	37.78	@ Minnesota Vikings	23	1515.68	24.26%	Chicago Bears	7	1731.17	74.58%
9	1986-10-26	36.43	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	30	1398.25	36.08%	Cincinnati Bengals	9	1515.32	62.76%
10	1986-11-02	35.67	New York Jets	38	1607.87	48.33%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1593.66	50.50%
11	1986-11-16	35.18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	34	1477.17	45.44%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1526.65	53.40%
12	1986-10-12	34.84	@ Dallas Cowboys	30	1539.86	42.71%	Washington Redskins	6	1608.57	56.13%
13	1986-12-14	34.65	@ Houston Oilers	23	1328.85	22.96%	Minnesota Vikings	10	1556.81	75.88%
14	1986-11-02	34.19	@ New Orleans Saints	23	1428.46	23.97%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1646.70	74.87%
15	1987-01-04 *	34.02	@ New York Giants	49	1706.58	60.00%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1657.86	40.00%
16	1986-09-07	33.51	@ San Diego Chargers	50	1505.31	42.46%	Miami Dolphins	28	1575.81	56.38%
17	1986-12-21	32.74	@ Cincinnati Bengals	52	1520.71	52.52%	New York Jets	21	1520.87	46.32%
18	1986-09-28	31.83	@ Philadelphia Eagles	34	1423.09	31.66%	Los Angeles Rams	20	1574.45	67.18%
19	1986-12-20	31.65	@ Seattle Seahawks	41	1589.71	48.94%	Denver Broncos	16	1614.78	49.90%
20	1986-09-07	31.39	Atlanta Falcons	31	1418.24	44.80%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1428.74	54.04%
21	1986-11-09	31.35	@ Kansas City Chiefs	27	1495.12	43.53%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1557.99	55.30%
22	1986-11-27	31.22	Seattle Seahawks	31	1501.64	39.06%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1553.13	59.78%
23	1986-12-28 *	30.46	@ New York Jets	35	1488.13	45.70%	Kansas City Chiefs	15	1539.86	54.30%
24	1987-01-03 *	30.01	Washington Redskins	27	1642.15	36.04%	@ Chicago Bears	13	1720.09	63.96%
25	1986-10-05	29.33	Philadelphia Eagles	16	1454.92	40.96%	@ Atlanta Falcons	0	1492.64	57.88%