1985 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1963

Runner-Up

New England Patriots

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

4.08 wins above expected

15 wins · 10.92 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3.51 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.51 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	8	8	.500	—	287	294	-7	7.87	+0.13
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	9	.438	1	379	355	+24	8.71	-1.71
3	Cincinnati Bengals	7	9	.438	1	441	437	+4	7.74	-0.74
4	Houston Oilers	5	11	.312	3	284	412	-128	5.32	-0.32

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	12	4	.750	—	428	320	+108	10.67	+1.33
2	New York Jets Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	393	264	+129	8.83	+2.17
3	New England Patriots Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	362	290	+72	8.63	+2.37
4	Indianapolis Colts	5	11	.312	7	320	386	-66	5.77	-0.77
5	Buffalo Bills	2	14	.125	10	200	381	-181	5.10	-3.10

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	12	4	.750	—	354	308	+46	9.08	+2.92
2	Denver Broncos	11	5	.688	1	380	329	+51	9.56	+1.44
3	Seattle Seahawks	8	8	.500	4	349	303	+46	8.78	-0.78
4	San Diego Chargers	8	8	.500	4	467	435	+32	7.68	+0.32
5	Kansas City Chiefs	6	10	.375	6	317	360	-43	7.68	-1.68

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	15	1	.938	—	456	198	+258	10.92	+4.08
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	7	337	355	-18	8.16	-0.16
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	9	.438	8	346	359	-13	7.19	-0.19
4	Detroit Lions	7	9	.438	8	307	366	-59	6.65	+0.35
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	14	.125	13	294	448	-154	5.51	-3.51

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	10	6	.625	—	399	283	+116	9.43	+0.57
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	10	6	.625	—	357	333	+24	8.94	+1.06
3	Washington Redskins	10	6	.625	—	297	312	-15	8.63	+1.37
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	9	.438	3	286	310	-24	7.38	-0.38
5	St. Louis Cardinals	5	11	.312	5	278	414	-136	7.97	-2.97

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	11	5	.688	—	340	277	+63	9.67	+1.33
2	San Francisco 49ers Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	411	263	+148	11.03	-1.03
3	New Orleans Saints	5	11	.312	6	294	401	-107	6.29	-1.29
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	7	282	452	-170	4.80	-0.80

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

New England Patriots 26

New York Jets 14

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Miami Dolphins 24

Cleveland Browns (1st) 21

Jan 4

New England Patriots 27

Los Angeles Raiders 20

Jan 5

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 31

Miami Dolphins 14

Jan 12

NFC

Wild Card Round

New York Giants 17

San Francisco 49ers 3

Dec 29

Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams 20

Dallas Cowboys 0

Jan 4

Chicago Bears 21

New York Giants 0

Jan 5

Conference Championship

Chicago Bears 24

Los Angeles Rams 0

Jan 12

Super Bowl

Chicago Bears 46

New England Patriots 10

Jan 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1746	15	10.92	+4.08	99.87%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1701	10	11.03	-1.03	37.36%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1672	12	10.67	+1.33	84.74%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1644	12	9.08	+2.92	97.05%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1614	11	9.56	+1.44	85.08%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1607	10	9.43	+0.57	71.62%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1588	11	8.63	+2.37	94.22%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1580	11	8.83	+2.17	92.94%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1579	10	8.63	+1.37	84.14%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1564	8	8.78	-0.78	44.30%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1552	11	9.67	+1.33	85.01%	3	7	8	10	11	13	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1540	10	8.94	+1.06	79.79%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1509	8	7.68	+0.32	67.15%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1498	8	8.16	-0.16	57.50%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1496	7	7.74	-0.74	44.74%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1487	8	7.87	+0.13	63.61%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1487	7	8.71	-1.71	25.83%	2	6	7	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1466	6	7.68	-1.68	26.41%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1453	7	7.38	-0.38	53.71%	2	4	6	7	9	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1433	7	6.65	+0.35	68.14%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1406	7	7.19	-0.19	56.85%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1377	5	6.29	-1.29	33.46%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1376	5	7.97	-2.97	9.44%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1372	5	5.77	-0.77	45.47%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1361	4	4.80	-0.80	44.80%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1309	5	5.32	-0.32	56.13%	0	2	4	5	7	8	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1299	2	5.51	-3.51	3.81%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1282	2	5.10	-3.10	6.22%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—
Houston Oilers	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-4 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-3 (2.1 exp.)	3-0 (2.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.45%	2.90%	2.23%	1.56%	0.22%	0.67%	8.04%
7–13	0.45%	1.79%	5.58%	3.79%	2.46%	1.12%	0.67%	15.85%
14–20	2.90%	5.58%	4.91%	4.91%	3.57%	2.01%	0.67%	24.55%
21–27	2.23%	3.79%	4.91%	4.91%	5.36%	1.12%	0.89%	23.21%
28–34	1.56%	2.46%	3.57%	5.36%	0.89%	1.56%	0.67%	16.07%
35–41	0.22%	1.12%	2.01%	1.12%	1.56%	1.34%	0.45%	7.81%
42+	0.67%	0.67%	0.67%	0.89%	0.67%	0.45%	0.45%	4.46%
Total	8.04%	15.85%	24.55%	23.21%	16.07%	7.81%	4.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.53	21.53	+0.00
SD	10.93	10.93	15.51
CV	0.51	0.51	—
Max	62	62	+44
Min	0	0	-44

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.62	28.25	-10.62
SD	9.23	10.91	14.83
CV	0.52	0.39	—
Max	31	44	+16
Min	0	10	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.50	23.81	-11.31
SD	7.40	12.61	15.89
CV	0.59	0.53	—
Max	24	49	+20
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	25.00%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.50	12.38	+16.12
SD	9.25	10.42	13.75
CV	0.32	0.84	—
Max	45	38	+44
Min	16	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.56	27.31	+0.25
SD	12.08	9.94	13.26
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	50	44	+26
Min	6	10	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	18.38	-0.44
SD	8.15	10.56	13.12
CV	0.45	0.57	—
Max	35	37	+18
Min	7	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	20.81	+1.50
SD	10.85	12.55	18.55
CV	0.49	0.60	—
Max	44	50	+30
Min	0	7	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.75	20.56	+3.19
SD	9.69	7.32	9.42
CV	0.41	0.36	—
Max	44	31	+20
Min	10	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	56.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.19	22.88	-3.69
SD	11.65	8.12	15.55
CV	0.61	0.36	—
Max	41	43	+21
Min	3	9	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.06	22.19	-1.12
SD	10.57	10.90	17.00
CV	0.50	0.49	—
Max	43	43	+33
Min	3	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.75	25.75	-8.00
SD	12.23	8.99	12.27
CV	0.69	0.35	—
Max	44	45	+17
Min	0	10	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	24.12	-4.12
SD	12.82	10.90	18.85
CV	0.64	0.45	—
Max	49	45	+32
Min	3	6	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	22.50	-2.69
SD	14.82	9.59	18.17
CV	0.75	0.43	—
Max	47	36	+28
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.12	19.25	+2.88
SD	10.02	12.54	15.36
CV	0.45	0.65	—
Max	35	40	+31
Min	3	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	17.31	+3.94
SD	11.39	9.24	14.95
CV	0.54	0.53	—
Max	46	30	+32
Min	3	0	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	43.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.75	20.00	+6.75
SD	8.82	10.03	12.45
CV	0.33	0.50	—
Max	41	38	+31
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	22.44	-0.81
SD	7.52	9.45	10.65
CV	0.35	0.42	—
Max	35	41	+19
Min	9	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	18.12	+4.50
SD	8.62	8.79	10.09
CV	0.38	0.49	—
Max	38	35	+19
Min	7	3	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	25.06	-6.69
SD	7.58	10.46	13.18
CV	0.41	0.42	—
Max	30	47	+26
Min	3	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.94	17.69	+7.25
SD	6.02	11.01	11.08
CV	0.24	0.62	—
Max	35	35	+31
Min	16	0	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.56	16.50	+8.06
SD	14.81	9.03	18.67
CV	0.60	0.55	—
Max	62	31	+39
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.88	19.38	-1.50
SD	9.03	8.14	11.31
CV	0.51	0.42	—
Max	37	35	+23
Min	0	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.69	22.19	+1.50
SD	11.26	13.96	16.27
CV	0.48	0.63	—
Max	45	54	+42
Min	7	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
Total	—	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.19	27.19	+2.00
SD	12.33	13.17	12.68
CV	0.42	0.48	—
Max	54	49	+33
Min	7	7	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.69	16.44	+9.25
SD	8.26	7.39	13.53
CV	0.32	0.45	—
Max	38	28	+28
Min	10	3	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.81	18.94	+2.88
SD	12.15	10.10	14.50
CV	0.56	0.53	—
Max	49	35	+30
Min	3	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.38	25.88	-8.50
SD	12.21	8.48	15.30
CV	0.70	0.33	—
Max	43	46	+15
Min	0	10	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	28.00	-9.62
SD	9.26	13.21	11.68
CV	0.50	0.47	—
Max	38	62	+16
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.56	19.50	-0.94
SD	10.98	12.37	18.96
CV	0.59	0.63	—
Max	44	45	+34
Min	3	3	-35

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	15	10.92	+4.08
2	Los Angeles Raiders	12	9.08	+2.92
3	New England Patriots	11	8.63	+2.37
4	New York Jets	11	8.83	+2.17
5	Denver Broncos	11	9.56	+1.44

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	5.51	-3.51
2	Buffalo Bills	2	5.10	-3.10
3	St. Louis Cardinals	5	7.97	-2.97
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	8.71	-1.71
5	Kansas City Chiefs	6	7.68	-1.68

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	12	Sep 8 – Nov 24	1 in 168
2	Los Angeles Rams	7	Sep 8 – Oct 20	1 in 60
3	Los Angeles Raiders	6	Nov 17 – Dec 23	1 in 40
4	New York Jets	5	Sep 15 – Oct 14	1 in 36
5	New England Patriots	6	Oct 13 – Nov 17	1 in 36

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Chiefs	7	Oct 6 – Nov 17	1 in 93
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	Sep 8 – Nov 3	1 in 47
3	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 7 – Oct 27	1 in 30
4	Buffalo Bills	6	Sep 8 – Oct 13	1 in 22
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 24 – Dec 15	1 in 19

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	45.95%	29.89%	18.29%	5.87%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	26.46%	31.27%	29.93%	12.34%
Cincinnati Bengals	24.60%	30.20%	30.54%	14.66%
Houston Oilers	2.99%	8.64%	21.24%	67.13%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	61.20%	24.90%	11.27%	2.25%	0.38%
New York Jets	20.14%	34.75%	30.63%	11.05%	3.43%
New England Patriots	17.03%	32.31%	34.02%	12.49%	4.15%
Indianapolis Colts	1.17%	5.28%	14.65%	42.70%	36.20%
Buffalo Bills	0.46%	2.76%	9.43%	31.51%	55.84%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	36.60%	24.42%	18.62%	12.75%	7.61%
Los Angeles Raiders	25.77%	24.99%	20.49%	17.04%	11.71%
Seattle Seahawks	20.13%	22.70%	23.02%	19.43%	14.72%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.96%	14.87%	19.03%	25.97%	31.17%
San Diego Chargers	8.54%	13.02%	18.84%	24.81%	34.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	76.34%	16.91%	4.79%	1.43%	0.53%
Green Bay Packers	13.04%	36.91%	25.53%	16.44%	8.08%
Minnesota Vikings	5.63%	22.52%	28.62%	26.16%	17.07%
Detroit Lions	3.62%	17.05%	25.79%	30.01%	23.53%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.37%	6.61%	15.27%	25.96%	50.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	33.26%	25.81%	18.87%	13.65%	8.41%
Dallas Cowboys	25.65%	24.22%	21.20%	17.11%	11.82%
Washington Redskins	21.37%	22.08%	21.85%	19.67%	15.03%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.93%	16.01%	20.99%	24.84%	26.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.79%	11.88%	17.09%	24.73%	38.51%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	68.30%	28.04%	3.30%	0.36%
Los Angeles Rams	29.88%	58.69%	9.75%	1.68%
New Orleans Saints	1.49%	10.29%	59.94%	28.28%
Atlanta Falcons	0.33%	2.98%	27.01%	69.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Miami Dolphins	33.80%	19.78%	12.19%	9.63%	7.28%	5.69%	4.02%	2.73%	2.04%	1.25%	0.80%	0.43%	0.27%	0.09%
Denver Broncos	16.00%	14.71%	11.58%	10.24%	9.37%	8.01%	7.28%	5.96%	5.22%	4.42%	2.77%	2.07%	1.85%	0.52%
Los Angeles Raiders	10.07%	11.49%	10.42%	10.79%	9.21%	8.24%	8.70%	6.80%	6.79%	6.11%	4.59%	3.81%	2.18%	0.80%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.26%	9.28%	13.10%	11.18%	9.32%	10.58%	8.50%	8.78%	7.38%	5.53%	4.33%	3.00%	2.05%	0.71%
New York Jets	8.11%	9.01%	9.76%	10.56%	11.01%	9.11%	8.75%	9.28%	7.34%	5.67%	4.67%	3.50%	2.20%	1.03%
Seattle Seahawks	7.47%	9.00%	9.08%	9.40%	9.58%	9.14%	8.99%	8.36%	7.48%	7.71%	5.34%	4.75%	2.77%	0.93%
New England Patriots	6.87%	8.08%	7.70%	9.81%	10.44%	9.68%	9.61%	9.85%	8.40%	6.01%	5.66%	3.73%	2.55%	1.61%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.85%	5.09%	7.72%	7.20%	8.30%	10.08%	9.12%	9.55%	9.82%	9.59%	8.10%	6.38%	4.45%	1.75%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.76%	4.60%	7.24%	7.38%	7.78%	8.92%	9.42%	9.29%	10.14%	8.69%	8.53%	6.80%	5.77%	2.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.74%	4.02%	4.93%	5.50%	7.45%	7.15%	8.19%	8.45%	9.69%	10.78%	10.29%	8.87%	8.06%	3.88%
San Diego Chargers	2.71%	4.18%	4.58%	5.54%	6.12%	7.13%	8.64%	8.30%	9.11%	10.88%	9.87%	9.56%	8.91%	4.47%
Indianapolis Colts	0.21%	0.37%	0.65%	1.31%	1.83%	2.50%	3.50%	5.03%	6.41%	8.91%	14.19%	16.53%	16.34%	22.22%
Houston Oilers	0.08%	0.25%	0.74%	0.96%	1.44%	2.32%	2.89%	4.45%	6.03%	7.77%	11.01%	16.08%	23.37%	22.61%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.14%	0.31%	0.50%	0.87%	1.45%	2.39%	3.17%	4.15%	6.68%	9.85%	14.49%	19.23%	36.70%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	34.59%	20.63%	14.49%	10.80%	7.13%	5.58%	2.67%	1.84%	1.06%	0.52%	0.37%	0.19%	0.10%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	27.51%	23.65%	18.61%	9.84%	6.85%	5.30%	3.17%	2.10%	1.15%	0.84%	0.44%	0.38%	0.13%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	10.81%	12.16%	13.60%	15.49%	14.90%	10.92%	7.29%	5.54%	3.77%	2.14%	1.65%	0.96%	0.60%	0.17%
New York Giants	9.09%	11.93%	12.57%	12.21%	11.18%	9.33%	8.68%	6.91%	5.78%	4.67%	3.12%	2.39%	1.43%	0.71%
Dallas Cowboys	5.56%	9.46%	10.76%	10.84%	10.55%	9.76%	10.27%	7.86%	7.48%	6.30%	4.83%	3.20%	2.21%	0.92%
Washington Redskins	4.90%	6.98%	8.69%	10.38%	9.89%	9.74%	10.66%	8.34%	8.26%	7.38%	5.76%	4.59%	2.99%	1.44%
Green Bay Packers	2.53%	4.51%	6.24%	8.33%	10.11%	11.84%	10.24%	11.01%	8.69%	7.84%	6.76%	5.69%	3.66%	2.55%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.19%	4.38%	5.55%	6.55%	8.04%	8.21%	10.89%	9.53%	9.24%	10.27%	9.07%	7.45%	5.43%	3.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.20%	2.66%	3.26%	5.65%	5.62%	6.47%	8.92%	8.33%	10.93%	11.23%	10.34%	11.02%	9.02%	5.35%
Minnesota Vikings	0.74%	1.71%	2.88%	4.17%	6.28%	8.30%	8.79%	11.09%	10.42%	10.39%	10.57%	9.50%	8.05%	7.11%
Detroit Lions	0.54%	1.03%	1.84%	2.66%	4.50%	6.36%	6.94%	9.83%	9.62%	10.75%	12.27%	11.92%	10.79%	10.95%
New Orleans Saints	0.20%	0.59%	0.83%	1.92%	2.85%	4.24%	6.38%	9.14%	11.87%	12.95%	13.16%	13.04%	13.04%	9.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.12%	0.24%	0.54%	0.78%	1.46%	2.77%	3.48%	5.36%	6.47%	7.91%	11.14%	14.60%	18.39%	26.74%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%	0.07%	0.14%	0.38%	0.64%	1.18%	1.62%	3.12%	5.26%	6.81%	10.52%	15.07%	24.16%	31.01%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	22.61%	15.04%	10.88%	8.95%	7.42%	6.41%	5.35%	4.44%	3.66%	3.26%	2.57%	2.40%	1.66%	1.24%	0.93%	0.86%	0.49%	0.54%	0.30%	0.29%	0.21%	0.19%	0.09%	0.10%	0.02%	0.09%	—	—
Chicago Bears	18.10%	14.10%	12.19%	10.38%	8.21%	7.42%	5.22%	4.44%	3.46%	3.17%	2.91%	2.20%	1.70%	1.55%	1.15%	0.86%	0.55%	0.65%	0.43%	0.34%	0.29%	0.20%	0.20%	0.14%	0.08%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	16.11%	14.74%	10.58%	9.81%	6.66%	6.93%	4.92%	5.08%	3.89%	3.83%	2.97%	2.96%	1.83%	1.97%	1.52%	1.36%	1.23%	0.92%	0.74%	0.52%	0.43%	0.24%	0.28%	0.18%	0.19%	0.03%	0.06%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	6.09%	6.38%	6.96%	6.39%	7.49%	6.51%	7.11%	7.03%	6.36%	6.32%	5.20%	4.97%	3.55%	3.78%	3.01%	2.76%	2.10%	2.06%	1.19%	1.22%	0.85%	0.88%	0.59%	0.48%	0.28%	0.28%	0.11%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	6.81%	7.42%	7.25%	7.08%	6.39%	5.99%	5.62%	5.31%	4.77%	4.89%	4.34%	4.44%	4.12%	3.30%	3.28%	3.14%	2.59%	2.45%	2.23%	1.86%	1.50%	1.15%	1.25%	1.07%	0.77%	0.49%	0.39%	0.10%
New York Giants	4.92%	5.55%	6.71%	6.15%	6.55%	5.80%	6.44%	5.71%	5.61%	4.51%	5.48%	4.20%	4.52%	3.60%	3.72%	2.90%	3.08%	2.91%	2.27%	2.00%	1.61%	1.52%	1.41%	0.87%	0.77%	0.56%	0.34%	0.29%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.00%	5.08%	5.42%	5.63%	5.61%	5.35%	5.40%	5.23%	5.46%	4.54%	4.65%	4.02%	5.04%	4.01%	3.87%	3.49%	3.59%	3.10%	3.21%	2.72%	2.37%	2.13%	1.89%	1.52%	1.18%	0.75%	0.48%	0.26%
Dallas Cowboys	3.00%	3.47%	5.16%	4.81%	5.49%	5.49%	5.67%	5.00%	5.57%	4.45%	5.68%	4.19%	5.01%	4.60%	4.19%	3.79%	3.90%	3.41%	3.40%	3.04%	2.34%	2.29%	1.56%	1.43%	1.27%	0.91%	0.56%	0.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.13%	3.37%	3.63%	4.96%	4.98%	6.65%	5.26%	6.10%	5.37%	5.31%	4.76%	5.35%	4.93%	4.74%	4.24%	4.32%	4.14%	3.78%	3.16%	2.50%	2.42%	2.00%	1.75%	1.53%	1.02%	0.85%	0.48%	0.27%
New York Jets	3.00%	3.98%	4.17%	4.67%	5.12%	5.12%	5.28%	5.33%	5.33%	5.75%	4.49%	5.05%	4.20%	4.74%	4.77%	4.62%	3.53%	3.65%	3.06%	2.96%	2.56%	2.20%	1.92%	1.42%	1.28%	0.98%	0.61%	0.21%
Seattle Seahawks	2.40%	3.91%	3.89%	4.78%	5.14%	4.48%	4.95%	4.77%	4.80%	5.29%	4.91%	4.99%	4.82%	4.32%	4.40%	4.47%	3.79%	3.46%	4.16%	3.61%	2.86%	2.36%	2.18%	1.90%	1.59%	0.97%	0.52%	0.28%
New England Patriots	2.21%	3.60%	3.45%	4.10%	4.59%	4.04%	4.57%	5.37%	4.96%	5.43%	5.00%	5.15%	4.58%	5.16%	4.86%	4.92%	4.27%	4.04%	3.37%	3.10%	3.00%	2.51%	2.14%	1.72%	1.34%	1.13%	0.85%	0.54%
Washington Redskins	2.14%	3.17%	3.83%	3.85%	4.41%	4.54%	5.41%	4.75%	4.91%	4.81%	4.98%	4.86%	5.17%	4.82%	4.36%	4.20%	3.90%	4.01%	3.67%	3.78%	2.76%	2.68%	2.63%	2.18%	1.62%	1.29%	0.84%	0.43%
Green Bay Packers	1.43%	1.47%	2.53%	2.37%	3.42%	3.25%	4.37%	4.29%	5.03%	4.67%	4.80%	5.52%	5.26%	5.11%	5.09%	5.08%	4.69%	4.68%	4.03%	3.84%	3.50%	3.57%	3.16%	2.75%	2.07%	1.53%	1.69%	0.80%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.65%	1.51%	1.98%	2.57%	3.31%	3.87%	3.82%	3.75%	4.06%	4.55%	4.82%	4.95%	4.76%	5.06%	4.68%	4.59%	4.78%	5.16%	4.97%	4.61%	4.38%	4.31%	3.29%	3.10%	2.74%	1.85%	1.06%	0.82%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.67%	1.44%	2.16%	2.22%	2.77%	3.51%	3.48%	4.08%	4.34%	3.90%	4.20%	4.59%	4.88%	5.10%	4.89%	4.66%	4.85%	5.20%	4.11%	4.49%	4.27%	4.51%	3.64%	3.33%	3.06%	2.73%	1.79%	1.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.02%	1.47%	2.41%	2.47%	2.88%	2.73%	3.39%	3.44%	4.15%	3.80%	4.73%	4.01%	5.26%	4.50%	5.13%	4.51%	4.59%	4.55%	5.33%	4.69%	5.18%	4.00%	4.27%	3.11%	3.12%	2.14%	1.99%	1.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.75%	1.26%	1.70%	2.25%	2.39%	2.55%	2.76%	3.13%	3.74%	3.69%	3.88%	3.87%	4.26%	4.05%	4.37%	4.86%	5.14%	4.62%	5.69%	5.36%	5.29%	4.99%	4.03%	4.24%	3.89%	3.72%	2.21%	1.31%
San Diego Chargers	0.82%	1.20%	1.74%	2.30%	1.93%	2.83%	2.51%	3.17%	3.11%	3.59%	3.89%	4.06%	4.23%	4.12%	4.65%	4.52%	5.02%	4.42%	5.58%	4.96%	5.49%	4.54%	4.90%	4.44%	4.45%	3.64%	2.51%	1.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.46%	0.75%	1.36%	1.43%	1.59%	2.12%	2.66%	2.54%	2.81%	3.31%	3.19%	3.63%	3.82%	4.45%	4.08%	4.69%	5.39%	5.22%	5.57%	5.86%	5.22%	5.22%	5.50%	5.29%	4.79%	3.98%	3.23%	1.84%
Minnesota Vikings	0.27%	0.46%	0.75%	1.26%	1.62%	1.55%	1.95%	2.21%	2.73%	3.39%	3.45%	4.15%	4.13%	4.73%	4.96%	5.49%	5.38%	5.01%	5.21%	5.07%	5.71%	5.54%	5.02%	4.85%	4.40%	4.32%	3.62%	2.77%
Detroit Lions	0.20%	0.33%	0.56%	0.67%	0.79%	1.07%	1.41%	1.48%	2.01%	2.31%	2.66%	3.14%	3.04%	3.96%	4.12%	4.77%	4.77%	5.25%	4.92%	5.75%	5.69%	6.39%	6.25%	6.26%	5.78%	5.63%	5.68%	5.11%
New Orleans Saints	0.09%	0.13%	0.26%	0.33%	0.44%	0.51%	1.04%	0.96%	1.28%	1.68%	2.02%	2.17%	2.86%	3.24%	4.18%	4.40%	4.78%	5.87%	5.27%	6.66%	6.42%	7.30%	6.42%	6.92%	6.61%	7.66%	5.48%	5.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.04%	0.06%	0.15%	0.15%	0.19%	0.45%	0.43%	0.80%	0.80%	1.05%	1.19%	1.38%	1.76%	1.82%	2.50%	2.77%	3.44%	3.46%	4.28%	5.18%	6.24%	7.17%	7.63%	8.26%	8.83%	8.58%	10.50%	10.89%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.04%	0.10%	0.17%	0.26%	0.21%	0.31%	0.56%	0.59%	0.94%	1.10%	1.21%	1.55%	1.91%	2.35%	2.53%	3.17%	3.26%	3.75%	4.30%	5.34%	5.62%	7.02%	8.32%	9.57%	9.66%	12.66%	13.45%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.05%	0.11%	0.12%	0.16%	0.39%	0.40%	0.50%	0.57%	0.70%	1.01%	1.24%	1.28%	1.71%	1.88%	2.46%	2.83%	3.07%	3.86%	4.14%	4.91%	5.80%	7.17%	8.71%	9.96%	12.27%	11.51%	13.18%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.08%	0.10%	0.18%	0.14%	0.28%	0.35%	0.54%	0.59%	0.68%	1.16%	1.43%	1.54%	1.56%	2.03%	2.49%	3.43%	3.50%	4.81%	5.02%	7.35%	7.38%	9.49%	10.95%	15.73%	19.10%
Atlanta Falcons	0.01%	—	0.01%	0.05%	0.09%	0.05%	0.13%	0.25%	0.28%	0.32%	0.53%	0.62%	0.62%	0.98%	1.28%	1.42%	1.98%	2.76%	2.81%	3.65%	4.35%	5.67%	6.46%	8.50%	9.83%	12.98%	15.08%	19.29%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	33.80%	19.54%	7.86%	11.61%	9.14%	18.05%
Denver Broncos	16.00%	14.59%	6.01%	13.01%	10.57%	39.82%
Los Angeles Raiders	10.07%	11.06%	4.64%	13.75%	10.64%	49.84%
New York Jets	8.11%	7.87%	4.16%	13.68%	13.17%	53.01%
Seattle Seahawks	7.47%	8.62%	4.04%	11.94%	10.47%	57.46%
New England Patriots	6.87%	6.72%	3.44%	12.18%	12.17%	58.62%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.26%	10.88%	28.81%	2.99%	5.16%	45.90%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.85%	5.92%	17.69%	2.93%	5.36%	65.25%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.76%	5.55%	16.29%	3.32%	5.15%	66.93%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.74%	4.08%	2.14%	6.49%	7.51%	77.04%
San Diego Chargers	2.71%	4.08%	1.75%	6.21%	6.93%	78.32%
Indianapolis Colts	0.21%	0.51%	0.45%	1.09%	1.87%	95.87%
Houston Oilers	0.08%	0.41%	2.50%	0.34%	1.01%	95.66%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.17%	0.22%	0.46%	0.85%	98.23%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	34.59%	19.64%	14.07%	12.92%	6.98%	11.80%
Chicago Bears	27.51%	25.31%	23.52%	5.33%	5.41%	12.92%
Los Angeles Rams	10.81%	10.14%	8.93%	21.54%	15.74%	32.84%
New York Giants	9.09%	12.37%	11.80%	11.60%	11.71%	43.43%
Dallas Cowboys	5.56%	9.78%	10.31%	10.25%	10.95%	53.15%
Washington Redskins	4.90%	7.36%	9.11%	9.04%	10.14%	59.45%
Green Bay Packers	2.53%	4.49%	6.02%	8.61%	10.12%	68.23%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.19%	4.36%	5.38%	6.29%	8.06%	73.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.20%	2.77%	3.82%	4.86%	5.49%	81.86%
Minnesota Vikings	0.74%	1.73%	3.16%	4.02%	6.20%	84.15%
Detroit Lions	0.54%	1.20%	1.88%	2.55%	4.48%	89.35%
New Orleans Saints	0.20%	0.51%	0.78%	2.03%	2.84%	93.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.12%	0.28%	0.97%	0.61%	1.30%	96.72%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%	0.06%	0.25%	0.35%	0.58%	98.74%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	83.96%	83.96%	60.47%	39.76%	26.67%
San Francisco 49ers	82.75%	82.75%	55.39%	32.40%	19.57%
Miami Dolphins	74.69%	74.69%	51.90%	33.85%	16.21%
Denver Broncos	49.96%	49.96%	29.08%	15.05%	6.31%
Los Angeles Raiders	40.87%	40.87%	24.39%	13.56%	5.85%
New York Giants	46.48%	46.48%	20.00%	8.13%	4.10%
New York Jets	34.14%	34.14%	18.21%	8.46%	3.44%
Los Angeles Rams	50.64%	50.64%	21.17%	6.93%	3.18%
New England Patriots	29.95%	29.95%	15.86%	7.75%	3.10%
Seattle Seahawks	31.07%	31.07%	15.48%	6.64%	2.46%
Washington Redskins	31.23%	31.23%	12.07%	4.43%	1.83%
Dallas Cowboys	36.06%	36.06%	13.05%	4.19%	1.79%
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.67%	48.67%	14.92%	4.95%	1.36%
Cincinnati Bengals	27.60%	27.60%	8.85%	2.86%	0.90%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	29.30%	29.30%	9.13%	2.86%	0.79%
Green Bay Packers	21.03%	21.03%	7.49%	1.98%	0.79%
San Diego Chargers	13.86%	13.86%	5.83%	2.18%	0.65%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.00%	13.98%	5.32%	1.65%	0.36%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.94%	11.94%	2.82%	0.67%	0.20%
St. Louis Cardinals	15.89%	15.89%	3.06%	0.70%	0.18%
Minnesota Vikings	10.22%	9.06%	2.19%	0.38%	0.09%
Detroit Lions	7.03%	5.72%	1.37%	0.25%	0.07%
Indianapolis Colts	2.96%	1.95%	0.49%	0.08%	0.03%
New Orleans Saints	4.87%	2.91%	0.53%	0.10%	0.02%
Houston Oilers	3.22%	3.22%	0.38%	0.06%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	0.93%	0.65%	0.14%	0.07%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.91%	1.68%	0.25%	0.01%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	1.31%	0.74%	0.16%	0.05%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.01%	0.02%	0.04%			0.07%	0.03%	0.01%		0.02%		0.04%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.08%		0.07%	0.39%	0.01%	0.13%	0.32%	0.25%	0.17%	0.35%	0.50%	0.07%	0.22%	0.44%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%	0.07%		0.38%		0.07%	0.30%	0.33%	0.21%	0.32%	0.33%	0.04%	0.30%	0.48%
Denver Broncos	0.23%	0.81%	0.86%		0.19%	0.32%	0.85%	0.81%	1.44%	2.36%	2.68%	0.82%	0.91%	1.08%
Houston Oilers			0.02%	0.03%			0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%		0.02%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts		0.05%	0.08%	0.08%	0.01%		0.13%	0.08%	0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%	0.08%	0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.07%	0.28%	0.28%	0.38%	0.09%	0.22%		0.23%	0.49%	0.84%	1.04%	0.39%	0.27%	0.44%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.25%	1.06%	0.94%	1.09%	0.21%	0.38%	0.67%		2.00%	2.46%	2.92%	0.92%	0.76%	1.44%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%	0.72%	0.67%	2.04%	0.13%	0.14%	1.64%	2.17%		0.81%	0.72%	0.68%	1.62%	2.13%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.80%	0.73%	1.91%	0.13%	0.14%	1.73%	1.90%	0.47%		1.20%	0.56%	1.26%	2.05%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.72%	0.78%	2.20%	0.10%	0.10%	1.95%	1.92%	0.35%	0.98%		0.93%	1.57%	2.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.08%	0.01%	0.39%	0.03%	0.03%	0.28%	0.29%	0.27%	0.29%	0.32%		0.17%	0.50%
San Diego Chargers	0.12%	0.22%	0.33%	0.46%	0.05%	0.19%	0.26%	0.37%	0.58%	1.01%	1.07%	0.31%		0.35%
Seattle Seahawks	0.10%	0.65%	0.66%	0.83%	0.17%	0.46%	0.75%	0.90%	1.22%	1.95%	1.97%	0.68%	0.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.03%		0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%		0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.07%
Chicago Bears	0.03%		1.04%	0.11%	0.10%	1.77%	0.12%	0.29%	1.05%	0.58%	0.76%	0.72%	0.06%	0.99%
Dallas Cowboys	0.07%	0.40%		0.67%	1.45%	2.91%	1.05%	0.53%	0.65%	0.26%	0.94%	0.77%	0.18%	0.53%
Detroit Lions	0.02%	0.01%	0.21%		0.06%	0.43%	0.06%	0.13%	0.25%	0.18%	0.15%	0.40%	0.03%	0.17%
Green Bay Packers	0.06%	0.06%	1.08%	0.21%		1.61%	0.22%	0.39%	1.03%	0.73%	0.53%	1.20%	0.05%	0.82%
Los Angeles Rams	0.05%	0.65%	3.19%	1.02%	2.82%		1.49%	0.33%	2.89%	1.77%	0.03%	3.18%	0.42%	2.92%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.02%	0.60%	0.02%	0.23%	0.69%		0.13%	0.37%	0.26%	0.16%	0.59%	0.03%	0.29%
New Orleans Saints		0.04%	0.14%	0.12%	0.12%	0.09%	0.11%		0.19%	0.21%	0.03%	0.14%	0.03%	0.20%
New York Giants	0.12%	0.63%	0.75%	0.68%	1.90%	4.00%	1.01%	0.60%		0.46%	1.21%	0.76%	0.28%	0.82%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.11%	0.20%	0.26%	0.58%	1.14%	0.43%	0.17%	0.26%		0.37%	0.25%	0.09%	0.27%
San Francisco 49ers	0.02%	0.69%	2.65%	0.75%	1.53%	0.06%	1.05%	0.23%	2.43%	1.10%		1.71%	0.17%	2.06%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.06%	0.11%	0.19%	0.35%	0.60%	1.09%	0.35%	0.22%	0.28%	0.16%	0.28%		0.12%	0.15%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.02%	0.02%		0.01%	0.08%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.06%		0.03%
Washington Redskins	0.12%	0.35%	0.72%	0.72%	1.31%	2.60%	0.88%	0.42%	0.65%	0.41%	0.97%	0.58%	0.13%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills			0.02%	0.05%			0.01%	0.01%				0.03%	0.01%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.05%			1.52%		0.16%	0.72%	1.07%	1.55%	0.99%	1.15%		0.57%	1.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.05%			1.61%		0.10%	0.65%	1.07%	1.80%	0.98%	1.13%		0.62%	1.12%
Denver Broncos	0.18%	3.63%	4.06%		0.48%	0.42%			5.98%	4.00%	4.07%	6.26%
Houston Oilers				0.10%		0.02%	0.06%	0.07%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%		0.04%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		0.09%	0.05%	0.05%			0.06%	0.04%				0.14%	0.01%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.04%	0.77%	0.61%		0.14%	0.05%			0.88%	0.79%	0.85%	1.19%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.09%	2.85%	3.19%		0.52%	0.29%			5.47%	3.03%	3.67%	5.28%
Miami Dolphins		5.36%	5.63%	9.08%	0.70%		3.66%	8.13%				8.74%	3.50%	7.10%
New England Patriots		1.74%	1.59%	2.95%	0.27%		1.08%	1.78%				3.41%	1.13%	1.91%
New York Jets		1.78%	2.08%	3.15%	0.29%		1.26%	2.65%				3.82%	1.11%	2.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%			2.37%		0.13%	1.16%	1.66%	2.34%	1.91%	2.03%		1.04%	2.23%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.67%	0.83%		0.13%	0.05%			1.29%	0.67%	0.69%	1.48%
Seattle Seahawks	0.10%	1.86%	2.11%		0.31%	0.24%			3.44%	1.71%	2.31%	3.40%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.02%	0.01%		0.01%		0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.21%		8.45%			13.21%		1.01%	10.27%	3.31%	11.85%	4.71%		7.45%
Dallas Cowboys	0.11%	2.43%		0.49%	1.61%	3.83%	0.88%	0.31%			3.20%		0.19%
Detroit Lions			0.18%			0.28%		0.02%	0.24%	0.14%	0.27%	0.12%		0.12%
Green Bay Packers			1.24%			1.27%		0.18%	1.25%	0.43%	1.61%	0.65%		0.86%
Los Angeles Rams		3.52%	3.69%	0.65%	1.81%		1.00%		3.82%	1.43%		2.20%	0.21%	2.84%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%		0.37%			0.38%		0.05%	0.38%	0.16%	0.38%	0.24%		0.22%
New Orleans Saints		0.07%	0.15%	0.03%	0.02%		0.02%		0.07%	0.03%		0.05%		0.09%
New York Giants	0.08%	4.09%		0.74%	2.27%	5.44%	1.33%	0.36%			5.42%		0.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.57%		0.14%	0.33%	0.74%	0.16%	0.09%			0.71%		0.05%
San Francisco 49ers		9.78%	8.85%	1.76%	5.62%		2.56%		10.40%	3.57%		4.82%	0.49%	7.54%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.02%	0.52%		0.13%	0.37%	0.85%	0.32%	0.08%			0.71%		0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.05%			0.04%			0.03%	0.04%	0.04%	0.03%		0.02%
Washington Redskins	0.05%	2.49%		0.40%	1.50%	3.43%	0.59%	0.28%			3.17%		0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.01%		0.01%				0.01%	0.01%			0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals			0.04%	0.51%			0.08%	0.37%	0.76%	0.36%	0.28%	0.11%	0.12%	0.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		0.10%		0.53%		0.01%	0.11%	0.31%	0.68%	0.24%	0.42%	0.14%	0.09%	0.23%
Denver Broncos		0.94%	0.98%		0.06%	0.06%	0.45%	2.00%	4.27%	1.21%	1.57%	1.59%	0.59%	1.33%
Houston Oilers								0.02%	0.01%		0.01%			0.02%
Indianapolis Colts		0.01%		0.01%			0.01%		0.03%			0.01%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.12%	0.12%	0.18%	0.01%			0.23%	0.44%	0.08%	0.17%	0.14%	0.05%	0.11%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.01%	0.71%	0.85%	2.20%	0.05%	0.07%	0.52%		3.74%	1.10%	1.24%	1.37%	0.51%	1.19%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%	2.55%	2.47%	6.16%	0.10%	0.16%	1.44%	4.75%		3.23%	4.19%	3.97%	1.24%	3.54%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.52%	0.52%	1.10%	0.03%	0.01%	0.28%	0.80%	2.20%		0.66%	0.76%	0.25%	0.60%
New York Jets		0.42%	0.47%	1.42%	0.02%	0.06%	0.24%	0.73%	2.26%	0.66%		0.97%	0.38%	0.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.15%	0.20%	0.62%	0.01%	0.03%	0.22%	0.60%	1.37%	0.42%	0.53%		0.22%	0.56%
San Diego Chargers		0.14%	0.17%	0.27%	0.01%		0.07%	0.21%	0.56%	0.19%	0.17%	0.19%		0.20%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	0.32%	0.45%	1.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.25%	0.80%	1.72%	0.62%	0.51%	0.71%	0.19%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.01%			0.02%				0.01%		0.02%			0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.02%		3.98%	0.48%	2.12%	6.61%	0.63%	0.21%	5.55%	0.95%	15.11%	0.92%	0.03%	3.15%
Dallas Cowboys	0.01%	1.08%		0.04%	0.24%	0.59%	0.09%		0.57%	0.07%	1.17%	0.13%		0.20%
Detroit Lions		0.06%	0.02%			0.05%			0.04%	0.01%	0.04%			0.03%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%	0.60%	0.14%	0.01%		0.22%			0.14%	0.05%	0.51%	0.05%	0.01%	0.24%
Los Angeles Rams		2.16%	0.55%	0.07%	0.30%		0.13%	0.02%	0.71%	0.11%	2.15%	0.15%	0.02%	0.56%
Minnesota Vikings		0.08%	0.05%		0.01%	0.05%		0.01%	0.02%		0.10%			0.06%
New Orleans Saints		0.01%				0.01%				0.01%	0.05%	0.01%		0.01%
New York Giants		2.70%	0.64%	0.07%	0.40%	0.88%	0.17%	0.03%		0.09%	2.42%	0.19%	0.04%	0.50%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.17%	0.05%	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%			0.06%		0.20%	0.02%		0.04%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	12.38%	2.93%	0.38%	2.09%	5.11%	0.68%	0.12%	4.19%	0.75%		0.83%	0.11%	2.80%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.13%	0.08%	0.02%	0.06%	0.08%	0.02%		0.09%		0.18%			0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers											0.01%
Washington Redskins		1.33%	0.42%	0.04%	0.22%	0.57%	0.09%	0.04%	0.49%	0.11%	1.03%	0.06%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons															0.01%					0.01%
Chicago Bears		0.01%		0.84%	1.00%		3.67%				0.01%	0.67%	3.82%		8.36%		2.19%			2.12%		1.50%	0.71%		1.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%		0.29%			0.02%		0.01%	0.04%					0.08%				0.01%	0.05%		0.03%			0.29%		0.02%	0.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			0.26%			0.05%		0.01%	0.02%					0.05%					0.12%		0.01%			0.19%			0.08%
Dallas Cowboys				0.09%	0.07%		0.26%					0.05%	0.19%		0.47%		0.12%			0.16%		0.17%	0.05%		0.16%
Denver Broncos			2.03%			0.41%			0.15%					0.63%		0.04%		0.01%	0.59%		0.08%			1.96%		0.03%	0.38%
Detroit Lions		0.01%					0.01%						0.02%		0.02%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers				0.05%	0.04%		0.10%					0.01%	0.11%		0.20%		0.05%			0.03%		0.06%	0.04%		0.10%
Houston Oilers			0.01%																					0.01%
Indianapolis Colts														0.02%										0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs			0.10%			0.02%								0.02%					0.05%					0.15%			0.02%
Los Angeles Raiders			1.96%			0.40%		0.01%	0.13%					0.54%		0.04%		0.02%	0.51%		0.03%			1.72%		0.09%	0.40%
Los Angeles Rams				0.11%	0.12%		0.40%			0.01%	0.01%	0.11%	0.37%		0.90%		0.28%			0.29%		0.27%	0.10%		0.21%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%		5.22%			0.86%		0.06%	0.46%					1.42%		0.12%		0.01%	1.64%		0.16%			5.08%		0.20%	0.96%
Minnesota Vikings							0.01%						0.01%		0.04%		0.01%					0.01%			0.01%
New England Patriots			0.88%			0.13%		0.02%	0.11%					0.32%		0.03%		0.03%	0.25%		0.04%			1.02%		0.06%	0.21%
New Orleans Saints																	0.01%			0.01%
New York Giants				0.14%	0.15%		0.62%			0.01%	0.01%	0.12%	0.48%		1.16%		0.34%			0.40%		0.30%	0.10%		0.27%
New York Jets	0.01%		1.11%			0.28%		0.01%	0.13%					0.35%		0.02%			0.32%		0.06%			0.87%		0.05%	0.23%
Philadelphia Eagles												0.01%	0.03%		0.10%		0.01%			0.01%		0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers			0.39%			0.07%		0.01%	0.04%					0.11%		0.01%			0.16%		0.02%			0.41%		0.03%	0.11%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%		0.20%			0.01%		0.01%	0.03%					0.04%					0.07%					0.27%			0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		0.03%		0.70%	0.61%		3.26%			0.02%	0.02%	0.28%	2.45%		5.83%		1.51%			1.87%		1.07%	0.46%		1.46%
Seattle Seahawks			0.64%			0.15%		0.04%	0.08%					0.17%		0.03%			0.27%		0.04%			0.85%		0.04%	0.15%
St. Louis Cardinals				0.01%			0.04%						0.02%		0.05%		0.01%			0.02%		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers							0.01%
Washington Redskins				0.02%	0.08%		0.36%					0.04%	0.21%		0.50%		0.11%			0.10%		0.16%	0.06%		0.19%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Chicago Bears	100.00%	72.68%	61.22%	37.42%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Raiders	100.00%	69.11%	44.40%	20.00%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	84.23%	40.28%	19.52%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	48.86%	16.21%	10.07%	6.10%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	100.00%	66.53%	15.64%	5.88%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New York Jets	63.03%	18.80%	6.35%	2.78%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	33.47%	7.72%	2.76%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Giants	51.14%	11.11%	5.35%	2.61%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	36.97%	12.09%	4.29%	1.73%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	15.77%	4.68%	1.20%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	New England Patriots	New York Jets
New England Patriots		36.97%
New York Jets	63.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants		51.14%
San Francisco 49ers	48.86%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)			15.77%
Los Angeles Raiders				24.88%	44.23%
Miami Dolphins	84.23%
New England Patriots		12.09%
New York Jets		18.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears				40.03%	32.65%
Dallas Cowboys			33.47%
Los Angeles Rams		66.53%
New York Giants	11.11%
San Francisco 49ers	16.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)		2.39%		0.85%	1.44%
Los Angeles Raiders	8.52%		35.88%
Miami Dolphins		22.32%		6.95%	11.01%
New England Patriots	0.97%		3.32%
New York Jets	1.60%		4.75%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears		20.40%	40.82%
Dallas Cowboys	3.85%			1.89%	1.98%
Los Angeles Rams	7.61%			3.87%	4.16%
New York Giants		1.84%	3.51%
San Francisco 49ers		3.51%	6.56%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Giants	New York Jets	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears		2.34%		16.48%		14.36%	1.82%		2.42%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.48%		0.21%		0.34%			0.06%		0.11%
Dallas Cowboys		0.20%		1.36%		1.02%	0.09%		0.09%
Los Angeles Raiders	10.59%		2.33%		4.27%			1.12%		1.69%
Los Angeles Rams		0.35%		2.71%		2.11%	0.31%		0.40%
Miami Dolphins	10.37%		1.92%		4.20%			1.26%		1.77%
New England Patriots	0.93%		0.18%		0.37%			0.12%		0.13%
New York Giants		0.22%		1.13%		0.94%	0.10%		0.22%
New York Jets	1.43%		0.32%		0.58%			0.18%		0.27%
San Francisco 49ers		0.37%		2.72%		2.33%	0.24%		0.44%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 37.42% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

55.08%

Win Prob

78.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

66.68%

Win Prob

84.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

44.04%

Win Prob

60.88%

Los Angeles Raiders 20.00% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

64.00%

Win Prob

70.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

80.81%

Win Prob

61.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

52.95%

Win Prob

39.12%

Miami Dolphins 19.52% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

84.23%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

55.41%

Win Prob

38.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

53.12%

Win Prob

41.93%

San Francisco 49ers 6.10% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.86%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.14%

Win Prob

61.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

44.59%

Win Prob

61.68%

Los Angeles Rams 5.88% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.53%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

48.66%

Win Prob

15.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

46.09%

Win Prob

38.83%

New York Jets 2.78% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.03%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

74.80%

Win Prob

30.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

51.44%

Win Prob

37.14%

Dallas Cowboys 2.76% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

49.87%

Win Prob

15.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

49.28%

Win Prob

36.86%

New York Giants 2.61% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.14%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.61%

Win Prob

47.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

43.30%

Win Prob

50.22%

New England Patriots 1.73% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.97%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.70%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

77.39%

Win Prob

32.33%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

53.76%

Win Prob

33.82%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 1.20% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

15.77%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

51.07%

Win Prob

21.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

40.00%

Win Prob

17.02%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1985-09-08	Detroit Lions	L 27-28	1424.75	1440.87	62.01%	37.77%	-8.04	0-1
1985-09-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-35	1416.71	1626.87	14.16%	85.62%	-8.01	0-2
1985-09-22	Denver Broncos	L 28-44	1408.70	1559.16	42.98%	56.80%	-22.31	0-3
1985-09-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-17	1386.39	1584.06	15.06%	84.72%	-6.48	0-4
1985-10-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-38	1379.91	1650.36	27.42%	72.36%	-16.31	0-5
1985-10-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 26-30	1363.60	1553.12	15.67%	84.11%	-4.07	0-6
1985-10-20	New Orleans Saints	W 31-24	1359.53	1450.96	51.43%	48.35%	+16.59	1-6
1985-10-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1376.12	1575.22	14.95%	84.83%	-7.27	1-7
1985-11-03	Washington Redskins	L 10-44	1368.85	1532.02	41.19%	58.58%	-31.16	1-8
1985-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1337.69	1474.30	20.12%	79.66%	-6.40	1-9
1985-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-14	1331.29	1597.41	27.92%	71.86%	+37.26	2-9
1985-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-36	1368.55	1727.28	6.55%	93.22%	-5.11	2-10
1985-12-01	Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-34	1363.44	1577.49	34.33%	65.45%	-14.09	2-11
1985-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-38	1349.35	1439.69	24.75%	75.03%	-17.00	2-12
1985-12-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-13	1332.35	1423.71	51.44%	48.34%	+6.27	3-12
1985-12-22	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-10	1338.62	1400.00	27.98%	71.80%	+22.80	4-12
1985-09-08	San Diego Chargers	L 9-14	1407.13	1483.57	53.58%	46.20%	-15.53	0-1
1985-09-15	@ New York Jets	L 3-42	1391.60	1441.30	29.35%	70.43%	-23.80	0-2
1985-09-22	New England Patriots	L 14-17	1367.80	1497.22	45.97%	53.81%	-10.33	0-3
1985-09-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-27	1357.47	1438.15	52.97%	46.81%	-18.17	0-4
1985-10-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-49	1339.30	1381.90	30.21%	69.57%	-22.18	0-5
1985-10-13	@ New England Patriots	L 3-14	1317.12	1468.60	18.78%	81.00%	-8.09	0-6
1985-10-20	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-9	1309.03	1392.35	52.59%	47.19%	+21.20	1-6
1985-10-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-21	1330.23	1476.79	19.22%	80.56%	-4.99	1-7
1985-11-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-23	1325.24	1466.48	44.28%	55.49%	-14.07	1-8
1985-11-10	Houston Oilers	W 20-0	1311.17	1410.25	50.33%	49.45%	+28.68	2-8
1985-11-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1339.85	1473.11	20.44%	79.34%	-8.39	2-9
1985-11-24	Miami Dolphins	L 14-23	1331.46	1609.58	26.55%	73.23%	-10.34	2-10
1985-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-40	1321.12	1482.51	17.93%	81.85%	-13.37	2-11
1985-12-08	New York Jets	L 7-27	1307.75	1565.67	28.88%	70.90%	-16.77	2-12
1985-12-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-30	1290.98	1495.50	14.56%	85.22%	-4.63	2-13
1985-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-28	1286.35	1668.23	5.78%	93.99%	-3.98	2-14
1985-09-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-28	1531.53	1453.03	73.74%	26.04%	+10.68	1-0
1985-09-15	New England Patriots	W 20-7	1542.21	1512.08	68.04%	31.74%	+14.86	2-0
1985-09-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-24	1557.07	1457.71	49.49%	50.29%	+19.56	3-0
1985-09-29	Washington Redskins	W 45-10	1576.63	1505.95	72.87%	26.91%	+20.67	4-0
1985-10-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-19	1597.30	1379.76	65.90%	33.87%	+12.43	5-0
1985-10-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-10	1609.73	1666.67	28.50%	71.28%	+36.97	6-0
1985-10-21	Green Bay Packers	W 23-7	1646.70	1511.50	79.52%	20.25%	+10.52	7-0
1985-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-9	1657.22	1455.34	85.03%	14.75%	+8.13	8-0
1985-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1665.35	1464.68	63.70%	36.08%	+11.47	9-0
1985-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 24-3	1676.82	1451.16	86.67%	13.11%	+7.80	10-0
1985-11-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 44-0	1684.62	1580.45	50.19%	49.59%	+42.66	11-0
1985-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 36-0	1727.28	1368.55	93.22%	6.55%	+5.11	12-0
1985-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-38	1732.39	1619.92	51.38%	48.40%	-24.93	12-1
1985-12-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 17-10	1707.46	1332.78	93.76%	6.01%	+2.07	13-1
1985-12-14	@ New York Jets	W 19-6	1709.53	1582.43	53.48%	46.30%	+21.65	14-1
1985-12-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-17	1731.18	1448.01	73.79%	25.99%	+15.09	15-1
1985-09-08	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-28	1501.46	1556.98	56.55%	43.23%	-14.67	0-1
1985-09-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-41	1486.79	1560.55	26.57%	73.21%	-12.90	0-2
1985-09-22	San Diego Chargers	L 41-44	1473.89	1472.84	64.30%	35.47%	-14.44	0-3
1985-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-24	1459.45	1548.63	24.87%	74.91%	+35.02	1-3
1985-10-06	New York Jets	L 20-29	1494.47	1514.79	61.44%	38.34%	-23.90	1-4
1985-10-13	New York Giants	W 35-30	1470.57	1544.95	53.87%	45.91%	+13.31	2-4
1985-10-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 27-44	1483.88	1337.26	56.26%	43.52%	-30.07	2-5
1985-10-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-21	1453.81	1512.45	56.11%	43.67%	+12.67	3-5
1985-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-17	1466.48	1325.24	55.49%	44.28%	+14.07	4-5
1985-11-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-10	1480.55	1493.05	62.50%	37.28%	+19.94	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 6-13	1500.49	1558.74	28.34%	71.44%	-9.73	5-6
1985-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-24	1490.76	1481.50	36.84%	62.93%	-20.29	5-7
1985-12-01	Houston Oilers	W 45-27	1470.47	1364.42	76.68%	23.10%	+12.73	6-7
1985-12-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 50-24	1483.20	1564.77	52.84%	46.94%	+31.04	7-7
1985-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1514.24	1554.32	30.51%	69.26%	-6.86	7-8
1985-12-22	@ New England Patriots	L 23-34	1507.38	1576.80	27.05%	72.72%	-11.65	7-9
1985-09-08	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-27	1469.12	1548.61	53.14%	46.64%	-11.93	0-1
1985-09-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-7	1457.19	1557.87	50.09%	49.68%	+20.37	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1477.56	1536.07	28.31%	71.47%	-13.25	1-2
1985-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-7	1464.31	1487.28	32.64%	67.14%	+32.57	2-2
1985-10-06	New England Patriots	W 24-20	1496.88	1477.18	66.72%	33.06%	+8.58	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-6	1505.46	1359.14	56.21%	43.56%	+21.88	4-2
1985-10-20	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-21	1527.34	1588.85	55.70%	44.07%	-7.22	4-3
1985-10-27	Washington Redskins	L 7-14	1520.12	1509.54	65.55%	34.23%	-22.48	4-4
1985-11-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-10	1497.64	1499.78	35.33%	64.45%	-4.59	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1493.05	1480.55	37.28%	62.50%	-19.94	4-6
1985-11-17	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1473.11	1339.85	79.34%	20.44%	+8.39	5-6
1985-11-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-6	1481.50	1490.76	62.93%	36.84%	+20.28	6-6
1985-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 35-33	1501.78	1604.88	23.40%	76.38%	+14.01	7-6
1985-12-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-31	1515.79	1575.59	28.16%	71.62%	-15.51	7-7
1985-12-15	Houston Oilers	W 28-21	1500.28	1333.17	82.33%	17.45%	+5.99	8-7
1985-12-22	@ New York Jets	L 10-37	1506.27	1560.78	28.78%	71.00%	-19.41	8-8
1985-09-09	Washington Redskins	W 44-14	1520.62	1567.96	57.70%	42.07%	+29.90	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-26	1550.52	1448.91	49.82%	49.96%	-14.45	1-1
1985-09-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-7	1536.07	1477.56	71.47%	28.31%	+13.25	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-10	1549.32	1379.35	59.53%	40.25%	+13.82	3-1
1985-10-06	@ New York Giants	W 30-29	1563.14	1553.10	36.95%	62.83%	+8.14	4-1
1985-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-13	1571.28	1508.14	72.00%	27.77%	+13.49	5-1
1985-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-16	1584.77	1467.24	52.11%	47.67%	-9.55	5-2
1985-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1575.22	1376.12	84.83%	14.95%	+7.27	6-2
1985-11-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-21	1582.49	1462.73	52.43%	47.35%	-22.55	6-3
1985-11-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-7	1559.94	1563.18	35.18%	64.59%	+20.51	7-3
1985-11-17	Chicago Bears	L 0-44	1580.45	1684.62	49.59%	50.19%	-42.66	7-4
1985-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-17	1537.79	1505.62	68.29%	31.49%	+16.85	8-4
1985-11-28	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-17	1554.64	1398.66	81.39%	18.39%	+10.13	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-50	1564.77	1483.20	46.94%	52.84%	-31.04	9-5
1985-12-15	New York Giants	W 28-21	1533.73	1609.40	53.69%	46.09%	+15.82	10-5
1985-12-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-31	1549.55	1691.33	19.65%	80.13%	-9.89	10-6
1985-09-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-20	1560.35	1521.06	40.95%	58.83%	-10.62	0-1
1985-09-15	New Orleans Saints	W 34-23	1549.73	1431.81	77.87%	21.91%	+9.43	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-28	1559.16	1408.70	56.80%	42.98%	+22.30	2-1
1985-09-29	Miami Dolphins	L 26-30	1581.46	1624.82	58.26%	41.52%	-15.10	2-2
1985-10-06	Houston Oilers	W 31-20	1566.36	1365.53	84.95%	14.83%	+6.38	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 15-10	1572.74	1404.08	59.35%	40.43%	+11.73	4-2
1985-10-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-10	1584.47	1557.19	67.68%	32.10%	+7.22	5-2
1985-10-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-10	1591.69	1513.89	46.40%	53.38%	+30.95	6-2
1985-11-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-30	1622.64	1450.43	59.84%	39.94%	-34.69	6-3
1985-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-16	1587.95	1657.40	54.57%	45.20%	+5.86	7-3
1985-11-17	San Diego Chargers	W 30-24	1593.81	1500.37	75.36%	24.41%	+7.77	8-3
1985-11-24	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 28-31	1601.58	1568.48	40.09%	59.69%	-9.01	8-4
1985-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-23	1592.57	1531.39	44.03%	55.75%	+20.44	9-4
1985-12-08	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-17	1613.01	1591.57	66.94%	32.83%	-15.03	9-5
1985-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-13	1597.98	1456.69	80.08%	19.69%	+2.56	10-5
1985-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1600.54	1577.31	38.73%	61.04%	+13.71	11-5
1985-09-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-27	1440.87	1424.75	37.77%	62.01%	+8.04	1-0
1985-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-21	1448.91	1550.52	49.96%	49.82%	+14.45	2-0
1985-09-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-14	1463.36	1370.38	48.58%	51.20%	-17.82	2-1
1985-09-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-9	1445.54	1397.32	70.25%	29.53%	+17.56	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-43	1463.10	1480.09	33.40%	66.38%	-24.90	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-24	1438.20	1510.61	26.72%	73.06%	-15.89	3-3
1985-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-21	1422.31	1629.71	35.19%	64.58%	+11.84	4-3
1985-10-27	Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1434.15	1621.66	37.85%	61.93%	+25.39	5-3
1985-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-16	1459.54	1447.22	37.25%	62.52%	-8.38	5-4
1985-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-24	1451.16	1676.82	13.11%	86.67%	-7.80	5-5
1985-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-21	1443.36	1429.15	66.02%	33.76%	+19.59	6-5
1985-11-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-19	1462.95	1348.59	51.65%	48.13%	-11.60	6-6
1985-11-28	New York Jets	W 31-20	1451.35	1589.33	44.75%	55.03%	+23.67	7-6
1985-12-08	@ New England Patriots	L 6-23	1475.02	1569.62	24.29%	75.49%	-13.00	7-7
1985-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 23-26	1462.02	1475.51	62.36%	37.41%	-14.01	7-8
1985-12-22	Chicago Bears	L 17-37	1448.01	1731.18	25.99%	73.79%	-15.09	7-9
1985-09-08	@ New England Patriots	L 20-26	1542.87	1498.85	41.61%	58.17%	-13.22	0-1
1985-09-15	New York Giants	W 23-20	1529.65	1526.32	64.60%	35.17%	+7.90	1-1
1985-09-22	New York Jets	L 3-24	1537.55	1465.09	73.07%	26.71%	-43.41	1-2
1985-09-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-43	1494.14	1555.75	27.95%	71.83%	-14.05	1-3
1985-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 43-10	1480.09	1463.10	66.38%	33.40%	+24.90	2-3
1985-10-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1504.99	1451.74	70.85%	28.93%	+6.51	3-3
1985-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-23	1511.50	1646.70	20.25%	79.52%	-10.52	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-37	1500.98	1371.15	53.87%	45.91%	-36.30	3-5
1985-11-03	Chicago Bears	L 10-16	1464.68	1665.35	36.08%	63.70%	-11.47	3-6
1985-11-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-17	1453.21	1455.59	35.30%	64.48%	+26.44	4-6
1985-11-17	New Orleans Saints	W 38-14	1479.65	1381.86	75.82%	23.95%	+15.23	5-6
1985-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-34	1494.88	1560.14	27.53%	72.25%	-14.73	5-7
1985-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-0	1480.15	1360.19	78.07%	21.71%	+12.92	6-7
1985-12-08	Miami Dolphins	L 24-34	1493.07	1644.85	42.79%	56.99%	-17.56	6-8
1985-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 26-23	1475.51	1462.02	37.41%	62.36%	+14.01	7-8
1985-12-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1489.52	1307.83	61.14%	38.64%	+8.68	8-8
1985-09-08	Miami Dolphins	W 26-23	1379.75	1608.62	32.43%	67.35%	+15.13	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1394.88	1538.06	19.52%	80.26%	-4.39	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-20	1390.49	1537.50	19.18%	80.60%	-11.14	1-2
1985-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1379.35	1549.32	40.25%	59.53%	-13.82	1-3
1985-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-31	1365.53	1566.36	14.83%	84.95%	-6.39	1-4
1985-10-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-21	1359.14	1505.46	43.56%	56.21%	-21.88	1-5
1985-10-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-27	1337.26	1483.88	43.52%	56.26%	+30.07	2-5
1985-10-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1367.33	1495.04	20.96%	78.82%	+32.32	3-5
1985-11-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-20	1399.65	1482.93	52.59%	47.18%	+10.60	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-20	1410.25	1311.17	49.45%	50.33%	-28.69	4-6
1985-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-30	1381.56	1526.31	43.79%	55.99%	-27.24	4-7
1985-11-24	San Diego Chargers	W 37-35	1354.32	1492.61	44.70%	55.07%	+10.10	5-7
1985-12-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-45	1364.42	1470.47	23.10%	76.68%	-12.72	5-8
1985-12-08	New York Giants	L 14-35	1351.70	1590.88	31.14%	68.64%	-18.53	5-9
1985-12-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-28	1333.17	1500.28	17.45%	82.33%	-5.99	5-10
1985-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-34	1327.18	1354.28	32.12%	67.66%	-17.69	5-11
1985-09-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-45	1393.82	1541.80	19.09%	80.69%	-16.07	0-1
1985-09-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-30	1377.75	1593.49	13.77%	86.00%	-7.37	0-2
1985-09-22	Detroit Lions	W 14-6	1370.38	1463.36	51.20%	48.58%	+17.81	1-2
1985-09-29	@ New York Jets	L 20-25	1388.19	1508.50	21.67%	78.10%	-6.29	1-3
1985-10-06	Buffalo Bills	W 49-17	1381.90	1339.30	69.57%	30.21%	+22.18	2-3
1985-10-13	Denver Broncos	L 10-15	1404.08	1572.74	40.43%	59.35%	-11.73	2-4
1985-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-21	1392.35	1309.03	47.19%	52.59%	-21.20	2-5
1985-10-27	Green Bay Packers	W 37-10	1371.15	1500.98	45.91%	53.87%	+36.30	3-5
1985-11-03	New York Jets	L 17-35	1407.45	1556.53	43.17%	56.61%	-23.77	3-6
1985-11-10	@ New England Patriots	L 15-34	1383.68	1529.91	19.25%	80.53%	-10.89	3-7
1985-11-17	Miami Dolphins	L 20-34	1372.79	1593.32	33.49%	66.29%	-16.26	3-8
1985-11-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-20	1356.53	1440.22	25.46%	74.31%	-11.92	3-9
1985-12-01	New England Patriots	L 31-38	1344.61	1557.80	34.44%	65.34%	-11.83	3-10
1985-12-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1332.78	1707.46	6.01%	93.76%	-2.07	3-11
1985-12-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1330.71	1331.39	35.52%	64.26%	+23.57	4-11
1985-12-22	Houston Oilers	W 34-16	1354.28	1327.18	67.66%	32.12%	+17.68	5-11
1985-09-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 47-27	1529.36	1463.77	44.65%	55.12%	+31.97	1-0
1985-09-12	Los Angeles Raiders	W 36-20	1561.33	1590.57	60.22%	39.56%	+20.53	2-0
1985-09-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-31	1581.86	1600.87	33.14%	66.63%	-23.95	2-1
1985-09-29	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-7	1557.91	1567.94	62.83%	36.95%	+21.97	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-19	1579.88	1565.32	37.56%	62.22%	-14.62	3-2
1985-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-31	1565.26	1447.56	52.13%	47.65%	-22.42	3-3
1985-10-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-16	1542.84	1603.57	55.81%	43.96%	-28.95	3-4
1985-10-27	Denver Broncos	L 10-30	1513.89	1591.69	53.38%	46.40%	-30.96	3-5
1985-11-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-23	1482.93	1399.65	47.18%	52.59%	-10.60	3-6
1985-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-36	1472.33	1504.37	59.83%	39.94%	-21.94	3-7
1985-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1450.39	1651.54	14.80%	84.97%	-10.17	3-8
1985-11-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-7	1440.22	1356.53	74.31%	25.46%	+11.92	4-8
1985-12-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-24	1452.14	1563.14	22.60%	77.18%	-12.45	4-9
1985-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-10	1439.69	1349.35	75.03%	24.75%	+17.00	5-9
1985-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-14	1456.69	1597.98	19.69%	80.08%	-2.56	5-10
1985-12-22	San Diego Chargers	W 38-34	1454.13	1520.25	55.05%	44.73%	+11.61	6-10
1985-09-08	New York Jets	W 31-0	1574.70	1457.16	77.83%	21.95%	+15.87	1-0
1985-09-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-36	1590.57	1561.33	39.56%	60.22%	-20.53	1-1
1985-09-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-34	1570.04	1634.89	55.23%	44.55%	-35.08	1-2
1985-09-29	@ New England Patriots	W 35-20	1534.96	1507.55	39.31%	60.47%	+30.36	2-2
1985-10-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-10	1565.32	1579.88	62.22%	37.56%	+14.62	3-2
1985-10-13	New Orleans Saints	W 23-13	1579.94	1459.86	78.08%	21.70%	+8.91	4-2
1985-10-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-20	1588.85	1527.34	44.07%	55.70%	+7.22	5-2
1985-10-28	San Diego Chargers	W 34-21	1596.07	1459.87	79.62%	20.16%	+9.44	6-2
1985-11-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-33	1605.51	1541.93	44.37%	55.41%	-31.52	6-3
1985-11-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 34-40	1573.99	1485.13	47.98%	51.79%	-15.25	6-4
1985-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-6	1558.74	1500.49	71.44%	28.34%	+9.74	7-4
1985-11-24	Denver Broncos	W 31-28	1568.48	1601.58	59.69%	40.09%	+9.01	8-4
1985-12-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-24	1577.49	1363.44	65.45%	34.33%	+14.08	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1591.57	1613.01	32.83%	66.94%	+15.04	10-4
1985-12-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-3	1606.61	1591.10	66.19%	33.59%	+13.78	11-4
1985-12-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-6	1620.39	1576.16	41.64%	58.14%	+23.84	12-4
1985-09-08	Denver Broncos	W 20-16	1521.06	1560.35	58.83%	40.95%	+10.62	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-6	1531.68	1444.73	47.71%	52.07%	+22.40	2-0
1985-09-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 35-24	1554.08	1597.91	30.06%	69.72%	+29.98	3-0
1985-09-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-6	1584.06	1386.39	84.72%	15.06%	+6.48	4-0
1985-10-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1590.54	1456.32	79.43%	20.34%	+4.58	5-0
1985-10-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-27	1595.12	1367.32	67.21%	32.56%	+8.45	6-0
1985-10-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-0	1603.57	1542.84	43.96%	55.81%	+28.95	7-0
1985-10-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-28	1632.52	1617.87	66.08%	33.70%	-32.05	7-1
1985-11-03	New Orleans Saints	W 28-10	1600.47	1416.70	83.67%	16.11%	+8.87	8-1
1985-11-10	@ New York Giants	L 19-24	1609.34	1568.56	41.16%	58.62%	-11.93	8-2
1985-11-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-30	1597.41	1331.29	71.86%	27.92%	-37.27	8-3
1985-11-24	Green Bay Packers	W 34-17	1560.14	1494.88	72.25%	27.53%	+14.74	9-3
1985-12-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-29	1574.88	1390.50	61.51%	38.27%	-40.66	9-4
1985-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-20	1534.22	1707.18	16.97%	82.81%	+28.40	10-4
1985-12-15	St. Louis Cardinals	W 46-14	1562.62	1407.14	81.35%	18.43%	+13.54	11-4
1985-12-23	Los Angeles Raiders	L 6-16	1576.16	1620.39	58.14%	41.64%	-23.83	11-5
1985-09-08	@ Houston Oilers	L 23-26	1608.62	1379.75	67.35%	32.43%	-15.13	0-1
1985-09-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-13	1593.49	1377.75	86.00%	13.77%	+7.38	1-1
1985-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-0	1600.87	1581.86	66.63%	33.14%	+23.95	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-26	1624.82	1581.46	41.52%	58.26%	+15.11	3-1
1985-10-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1639.93	1513.62	78.68%	21.09%	+5.48	4-1
1985-10-14	@ New York Jets	L 7-23	1645.41	1538.69	50.55%	49.23%	-26.23	4-2
1985-10-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-38	1619.18	1358.87	88.78%	11.00%	+2.48	5-2
1985-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-31	1621.66	1434.15	61.93%	37.85%	-25.39	5-3
1985-11-03	@ New England Patriots	L 13-17	1596.27	1517.85	46.49%	53.29%	-12.06	5-4
1985-11-10	New York Jets	W 21-17	1584.21	1580.29	64.68%	35.10%	+9.11	6-4
1985-11-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-20	1593.32	1372.79	66.29%	33.49%	+16.26	7-4
1985-11-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-14	1609.58	1331.46	73.23%	26.55%	+10.34	8-4
1985-12-02	Chicago Bears	W 38-24	1619.92	1732.39	48.40%	51.38%	+24.93	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-24	1644.85	1493.07	56.99%	42.79%	+17.56	10-4
1985-12-16	New England Patriots	W 30-27	1662.41	1582.63	73.88%	25.89%	+5.82	11-4
1985-12-22	Buffalo Bills	W 28-0	1668.23	1286.35	93.99%	5.78%	+3.98	12-4
1985-09-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-21	1400.30	1650.89	29.75%	70.03%	+24.02	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-16	1424.32	1442.34	33.27%	66.51%	+33.39	2-0
1985-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 24-33	1457.71	1557.07	50.29%	49.49%	-19.56	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-20	1438.15	1357.47	46.81%	52.97%	+18.17	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-13	1456.32	1590.54	20.34%	79.43%	-4.58	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1451.74	1504.99	28.93%	70.85%	-6.50	3-3
1985-10-20	San Diego Chargers	W 21-17	1445.24	1469.98	60.84%	38.94%	+10.10	4-3
1985-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-27	1455.34	1657.22	14.75%	85.03%	-8.12	4-4
1985-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1447.22	1459.54	62.52%	37.25%	+8.37	5-4
1985-11-10	Green Bay Packers	L 17-27	1455.59	1453.21	64.48%	35.30%	-26.44	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-41	1429.15	1443.36	33.76%	66.02%	-19.59	5-6
1985-11-24	New Orleans Saints	L 23-30	1409.56	1366.62	69.61%	30.17%	-23.88	5-7
1985-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-23	1385.68	1488.77	23.40%	76.37%	+22.14	6-7
1985-12-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-7	1407.82	1347.28	71.70%	28.07%	+15.89	7-7
1985-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-14	1423.71	1332.35	48.34%	51.44%	-6.27	7-8
1985-12-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 35-37	1417.44	1441.98	60.87%	38.91%	-11.16	7-9
1985-09-08	Green Bay Packers	W 26-20	1498.85	1542.87	58.17%	41.61%	+13.23	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1512.08	1542.21	31.74%	68.04%	-14.86	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1497.22	1367.80	53.81%	45.97%	+10.33	2-1
1985-09-29	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-35	1507.55	1534.96	60.47%	39.31%	-30.37	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-24	1477.18	1496.88	33.06%	66.72%	-8.58	2-3
1985-10-13	Buffalo Bills	W 14-3	1468.60	1317.12	81.00%	18.78%	+8.09	3-3
1985-10-20	New York Jets	W 20-13	1476.69	1564.91	51.89%	47.89%	+16.44	4-3
1985-10-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-14	1493.13	1356.40	54.85%	44.92%	+24.72	5-3
1985-11-03	Miami Dolphins	W 17-13	1517.85	1596.27	53.29%	46.49%	+12.06	6-3
1985-11-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-15	1529.91	1383.68	80.53%	19.25%	+10.90	7-3
1985-11-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-13	1540.81	1599.42	28.30%	71.48%	+24.51	8-3
1985-11-24	@ New York Jets	L 13-16	1565.32	1581.81	33.47%	66.31%	-7.52	8-4
1985-12-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-31	1557.80	1344.61	65.34%	34.44%	+11.82	9-4
1985-12-08	Detroit Lions	W 23-6	1569.62	1475.02	75.49%	24.29%	+13.01	10-4
1985-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-30	1582.63	1662.41	25.89%	73.88%	-5.83	10-5
1985-12-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-23	1576.80	1507.38	72.72%	27.05%	+11.65	11-5
1985-09-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-47	1463.77	1529.36	55.12%	44.65%	-31.96	0-1
1985-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-34	1431.81	1549.73	21.91%	77.87%	-9.44	0-2
1985-09-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-13	1422.37	1408.95	65.92%	33.86%	+11.63	1-2
1985-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1434.00	1669.97	12.45%	87.33%	+19.61	2-2
1985-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1453.61	1441.86	65.70%	34.08%	+6.25	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-23	1459.86	1579.94	21.70%	78.08%	-8.90	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-31	1450.96	1359.53	48.35%	51.43%	-16.60	3-4
1985-10-27	New York Giants	L 13-21	1434.36	1548.60	48.14%	51.63%	-17.66	3-5
1985-11-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-28	1416.70	1600.47	16.11%	83.67%	-8.88	3-6
1985-11-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-27	1407.82	1573.45	40.85%	58.93%	-25.96	3-7
1985-11-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-38	1381.86	1479.65	23.95%	75.82%	-15.24	3-8
1985-11-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-23	1366.62	1409.56	30.17%	69.61%	+23.88	4-8
1985-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 29-3	1390.50	1574.88	38.27%	61.51%	+40.66	5-8
1985-12-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-28	1431.16	1388.52	41.42%	58.36%	-18.61	5-9
1985-12-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-31	1412.55	1678.78	27.90%	71.87%	-12.55	5-10
1985-12-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-16	1400.00	1338.62	71.80%	27.98%	-22.80	5-11
1985-09-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-0	1508.61	1462.44	70.00%	29.78%	+17.71	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1526.32	1529.65	35.17%	64.60%	-7.91	1-1
1985-09-22	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-17	1518.41	1573.45	56.62%	43.16%	+17.71	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1536.12	1458.84	46.32%	53.46%	+16.98	3-1
1985-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 29-30	1553.10	1563.14	62.83%	36.95%	-8.15	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-35	1544.95	1470.57	45.91%	53.87%	-13.32	3-3
1985-10-20	Washington Redskins	W 17-3	1531.63	1526.50	64.84%	34.94%	+16.97	4-3
1985-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-13	1548.60	1434.36	51.63%	48.14%	+17.66	5-3
1985-11-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 22-20	1566.26	1331.67	87.24%	12.54%	+2.30	6-3
1985-11-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-19	1568.56	1609.34	58.62%	41.16%	+11.94	7-3
1985-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-23	1580.50	1542.67	40.75%	59.03%	-7.47	7-4
1985-11-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-3	1573.03	1430.51	55.68%	44.10%	+31.85	8-4
1985-12-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 33-35	1604.88	1501.78	76.38%	23.40%	-14.00	8-5
1985-12-08	@ Houston Oilers	W 35-14	1590.88	1351.70	68.64%	31.14%	+18.52	9-5
1985-12-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-28	1609.40	1533.73	46.09%	53.69%	-15.82	9-6
1985-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-10	1593.58	1500.14	75.36%	24.41%	+13.45	10-6
1985-09-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 0-31	1457.16	1574.70	21.95%	77.83%	-15.86	0-1
1985-09-15	Buffalo Bills	W 42-3	1441.30	1391.60	70.43%	29.35%	+23.79	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1465.09	1537.55	26.71%	73.07%	+43.41	2-1
1985-09-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 25-20	1508.50	1388.19	78.10%	21.67%	+6.29	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-20	1514.79	1494.47	38.34%	61.44%	+23.90	4-1
1985-10-14	Miami Dolphins	W 23-7	1538.69	1645.41	49.23%	50.55%	+26.22	5-1
1985-10-20	@ New England Patriots	L 13-20	1564.91	1476.69	47.89%	51.89%	-16.43	5-2
1985-10-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-14	1548.48	1549.97	63.97%	35.81%	+8.05	6-2
1985-11-03	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 35-17	1556.53	1407.45	56.61%	43.17%	+23.76	7-2
1985-11-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1580.29	1584.21	35.10%	64.68%	-9.11	7-3
1985-11-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 62-28	1571.18	1359.22	85.74%	14.04%	+10.63	8-3
1985-11-24	New England Patriots	W 16-13	1581.81	1565.32	66.31%	33.47%	+7.52	9-3
1985-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-31	1589.33	1451.35	55.03%	44.75%	-23.66	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-7	1565.67	1307.75	70.90%	28.88%	+16.76	10-4
1985-12-14	Chicago Bears	L 6-19	1582.43	1709.53	46.30%	53.48%	-21.65	10-5
1985-12-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-10	1560.78	1506.27	71.00%	28.78%	+19.41	11-5
1985-09-08	@ New York Giants	L 0-21	1462.44	1508.61	29.78%	70.00%	-17.71	0-1
1985-09-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-17	1444.73	1531.68	52.07%	47.71%	-22.39	0-2
1985-09-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-6	1422.34	1542.45	21.69%	78.09%	+36.50	1-2
1985-09-29	New York Giants	L 10-16	1458.84	1536.12	53.46%	46.32%	-16.98	1-3
1985-10-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-23	1441.86	1453.61	34.08%	65.70%	-6.26	1-4
1985-10-13	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-7	1435.60	1544.47	48.92%	50.86%	+31.64	2-4
1985-10-20	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-14	1467.24	1584.77	47.67%	52.11%	+9.55	3-4
1985-10-27	Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1476.79	1330.23	80.56%	19.22%	+4.99	4-4
1985-11-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-24	1481.78	1649.92	17.36%	82.41%	-7.48	4-5
1985-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-17	1474.30	1337.69	79.66%	20.12%	+6.41	5-5
1985-11-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-14	1480.71	1455.42	39.02%	60.76%	+24.91	6-5
1985-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-34	1505.62	1537.79	31.49%	68.29%	-16.85	6-6
1985-12-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 23-28	1488.77	1385.68	76.37%	23.40%	-22.14	6-7
1985-12-08	Washington Redskins	L 12-17	1466.63	1538.60	54.21%	45.56%	-15.72	6-8
1985-12-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1450.91	1511.32	28.09%	71.69%	-8.93	6-9
1985-12-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-35	1441.98	1417.44	38.91%	60.87%	+11.16	7-9
1985-09-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-3	1541.80	1393.82	80.69%	19.09%	+16.07	1-0
1985-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1557.87	1457.19	49.68%	50.09%	-20.37	1-1
1985-09-22	Houston Oilers	W 20-0	1537.50	1390.49	80.60%	19.18%	+11.13	2-1
1985-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-37	1548.63	1459.45	74.91%	24.87%	-35.01	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1513.62	1639.93	21.09%	78.68%	-5.48	2-3
1985-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-27	1508.14	1571.28	27.77%	72.00%	-13.49	2-4
1985-10-20	St. Louis Cardinals	W 23-10	1494.65	1512.84	61.73%	38.05%	+17.80	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-26	1512.45	1453.81	43.67%	56.11%	-12.67	3-5
1985-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-9	1499.78	1497.64	64.45%	35.33%	+4.59	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 36-28	1504.37	1472.33	39.94%	59.83%	+21.94	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Houston Oilers	W 30-7	1526.31	1381.56	55.99%	43.79%	+27.24	6-5
1985-11-24	Washington Redskins	L 23-30	1553.55	1550.15	64.61%	35.16%	-22.16	6-6
1985-12-01	Denver Broncos	L 23-31	1531.39	1592.57	55.75%	44.03%	-20.45	6-7
1985-12-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 44-54	1510.94	1495.88	37.62%	62.15%	-15.44	6-8
1985-12-15	Buffalo Bills	W 30-24	1495.50	1290.98	85.22%	14.56%	+4.64	7-8
1985-12-21	@ New York Giants	L 10-28	1500.14	1593.58	24.41%	75.36%	-13.45	7-9
1985-09-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 14-9	1483.57	1407.13	46.20%	53.58%	+15.53	1-0
1985-09-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 35-49	1499.10	1571.65	54.13%	45.65%	-26.26	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-41	1472.84	1473.89	35.47%	64.30%	+14.44	2-1
1985-09-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1487.28	1464.31	67.14%	32.64%	-32.57	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-26	1454.71	1545.97	24.65%	75.13%	-7.15	2-3
1985-10-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-20	1447.56	1565.26	47.65%	52.13%	+22.42	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-21	1469.98	1445.24	38.94%	60.84%	-10.11	3-4
1985-10-28	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 21-34	1459.87	1596.07	20.16%	79.62%	-9.44	3-5
1985-11-03	Denver Broncos	W 30-10	1450.43	1622.64	39.94%	59.84%	+34.70	4-5
1985-11-10	Los Angeles Raiders	W 40-34	1485.13	1573.99	51.79%	47.98%	+15.24	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-30	1500.37	1593.81	24.41%	75.36%	-7.76	5-6
1985-11-24	@ Houston Oilers	L 35-37	1492.61	1354.32	55.07%	44.70%	-10.10	5-7
1985-12-01	Buffalo Bills	W 40-7	1482.51	1321.12	81.85%	17.93%	+13.37	6-7
1985-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 54-44	1495.88	1510.94	62.15%	37.62%	+15.44	7-7
1985-12-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1511.32	1450.91	71.69%	28.09%	+8.93	8-7
1985-12-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-38	1520.25	1454.13	44.73%	55.05%	-11.60	8-8
1985-09-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-28	1650.89	1400.30	70.03%	29.75%	-24.02	0-1
1985-09-15	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-16	1626.87	1416.71	85.62%	14.16%	+8.02	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-10	1634.89	1570.04	44.55%	55.23%	+35.08	2-1
1985-09-29	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1669.97	1434.00	87.33%	12.45%	-19.61	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-17	1650.36	1379.91	72.36%	27.42%	+16.31	3-2
1985-10-13	Chicago Bears	L 10-26	1666.67	1609.73	71.28%	28.50%	-36.96	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-23	1629.71	1422.31	64.58%	35.19%	-11.84	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-14	1617.87	1632.52	33.70%	66.08%	+32.05	4-4
1985-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-13	1649.92	1481.78	82.41%	17.36%	+7.48	5-4
1985-11-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-17	1657.40	1587.95	45.20%	54.57%	-5.86	5-5
1985-11-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-3	1651.54	1450.39	84.97%	14.80%	+10.17	6-5
1985-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-6	1661.71	1574.90	74.65%	25.12%	+11.76	7-5
1985-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-8	1673.47	1572.31	49.75%	50.03%	+33.71	8-5
1985-12-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-27	1707.18	1534.22	82.81%	16.97%	-28.40	8-6
1985-12-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-19	1678.78	1412.55	71.87%	27.90%	+12.55	9-6
1985-12-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-16	1691.33	1549.55	80.13%	19.65%	+9.88	10-6
1985-09-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-24	1556.98	1501.46	43.23%	56.55%	+14.67	1-0
1985-09-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 49-35	1571.65	1499.10	45.65%	54.13%	+26.26	2-0
1985-09-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-35	1597.91	1554.08	69.72%	30.06%	-29.97	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-28	1567.94	1557.91	36.95%	62.83%	-21.97	2-2
1985-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 26-21	1545.97	1454.71	75.13%	24.65%	+7.15	3-2
1985-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-26	1553.12	1363.60	84.11%	15.67%	+4.07	4-2
1985-10-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1557.19	1584.47	32.10%	67.68%	-7.22	4-3
1985-10-27	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1549.97	1548.48	35.81%	63.97%	-8.04	4-4
1985-11-03	Los Angeles Raiders	W 33-3	1541.93	1605.51	55.41%	44.37%	+31.52	5-4
1985-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-3	1573.45	1407.82	58.93%	40.85%	+25.97	6-4
1985-11-17	New England Patriots	L 13-20	1599.42	1540.81	71.48%	28.30%	-24.52	6-5
1985-11-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-19	1574.90	1661.71	25.12%	74.65%	-11.76	6-6
1985-12-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-6	1563.14	1452.14	77.18%	22.60%	+12.45	7-6
1985-12-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-13	1575.59	1515.79	71.62%	28.16%	+15.51	8-6
1985-12-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-13	1591.10	1606.61	33.59%	66.19%	-13.79	8-7
1985-12-20	Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1577.31	1600.54	61.04%	38.73%	-13.71	8-8
1985-09-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-24	1548.61	1469.12	46.64%	53.14%	+11.94	1-0
1985-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-27	1560.55	1486.79	73.21%	26.57%	+12.90	2-0
1985-09-22	@ New York Giants	L 17-27	1573.45	1518.41	43.16%	56.62%	-17.70	2-1
1985-09-29	Green Bay Packers	W 43-28	1555.75	1494.14	71.83%	27.95%	+14.05	3-1
1985-10-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-27	1569.80	1485.28	47.36%	52.42%	-25.33	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-30	1544.47	1435.60	50.86%	48.92%	-31.63	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1512.84	1494.65	38.05%	61.73%	-17.80	3-4
1985-10-27	Houston Oilers	L 10-20	1495.04	1367.33	78.82%	20.96%	-32.31	3-5
1985-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-10	1462.73	1582.49	47.35%	52.43%	+22.55	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-16	1485.28	1329.37	57.57%	42.21%	-29.86	4-6
1985-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1455.42	1480.71	60.76%	39.02%	-24.91	4-7
1985-11-24	New York Giants	L 3-34	1430.51	1573.03	44.10%	55.68%	-31.85	4-8
1985-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-35	1398.66	1554.64	18.39%	81.39%	-10.14	4-9
1985-12-08	New Orleans Saints	W 28-16	1388.52	1431.16	58.36%	41.42%	+18.62	5-9
1985-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-46	1407.14	1562.62	18.43%	81.35%	-13.55	5-10
1985-12-21	Washington Redskins	L 16-27	1393.59	1561.18	40.58%	59.20%	-17.46	5-11
1985-09-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 28-38	1453.03	1531.53	26.04%	73.74%	-10.69	0-1
1985-09-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-31	1442.34	1424.32	66.51%	33.27%	-33.39	0-2
1985-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1408.95	1422.37	33.86%	65.92%	-11.63	0-3
1985-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-30	1397.32	1445.54	29.53%	70.25%	-17.56	0-4
1985-10-06	Chicago Bears	L 19-27	1379.76	1597.30	33.87%	65.90%	-12.44	0-5
1985-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 27-31	1367.32	1595.12	32.56%	67.21%	-8.45	0-6
1985-10-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 38-41	1358.87	1619.18	11.00%	88.78%	-2.47	0-7
1985-10-27	New England Patriots	L 14-32	1356.40	1493.13	44.92%	54.85%	-24.73	0-8
1985-11-03	@ New York Giants	L 20-22	1331.67	1566.26	12.54%	87.24%	-2.30	0-9
1985-11-10	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-0	1329.37	1485.28	42.21%	57.57%	+29.85	1-9
1985-11-17	@ New York Jets	L 28-62	1359.22	1571.18	14.04%	85.74%	-10.63	1-10
1985-11-24	Detroit Lions	W 19-16	1348.59	1462.95	48.13%	51.65%	+11.60	2-10
1985-12-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-21	1360.19	1480.15	21.71%	78.07%	-12.91	2-11
1985-12-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-26	1347.28	1407.82	28.07%	71.70%	-15.89	2-12
1985-12-15	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-31	1331.39	1330.71	64.26%	35.52%	-23.56	2-13
1985-12-22	Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1307.83	1489.52	38.64%	61.14%	-8.68	2-14
1985-09-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-44	1567.96	1520.62	42.07%	57.70%	-29.90	0-1
1985-09-15	Houston Oilers	W 16-13	1538.06	1394.88	80.26%	19.52%	+4.39	1-1
1985-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-19	1542.45	1422.34	78.09%	21.69%	-36.50	1-2
1985-09-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-45	1505.95	1576.63	26.91%	72.87%	-20.67	1-3
1985-10-07	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-10	1485.28	1569.80	52.42%	47.36%	+25.33	2-3
1985-10-13	Detroit Lions	W 24-3	1510.61	1438.20	73.06%	26.72%	+15.89	3-3
1985-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 3-17	1526.50	1531.63	34.94%	64.84%	-16.96	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-7	1509.54	1520.12	34.23%	65.55%	+22.48	4-4
1985-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-10	1532.02	1368.85	58.58%	41.19%	+31.16	5-4
1985-11-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-13	1563.18	1559.94	64.59%	35.18%	-20.51	5-5
1985-11-18	New York Giants	W 23-21	1542.67	1580.50	59.03%	40.75%	+7.48	6-5
1985-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-23	1550.15	1553.55	35.16%	64.61%	+22.16	7-5
1985-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 8-35	1572.31	1673.47	50.03%	49.75%	-33.71	7-6
1985-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-12	1538.60	1466.63	45.56%	54.21%	+15.72	8-6
1985-12-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1554.32	1514.24	69.26%	30.51%	+6.86	9-6
1985-12-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-16	1561.18	1393.59	59.20%	40.58%	+17.46	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1986-01-05	New York Giants	W 21-0	1746.27	1630.69	77.78%	22.22%	+13.17	1-0
1986-01-12	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-0	1759.44	1572.04	84.11%	15.89%	+10.08	2-0
1986-01-26	@ New England Patriots	W 46-10	1769.52	1676.74	63.04%	36.96%	+28.69	3-0
1986-01-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-24	1486.86	1672.21	16.05%	83.95%	-3.60	0-1
1986-01-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-20	1539.66	1552.33	34.06%	65.94%	-19.71	0-1
1986-01-05	New England Patriots	L 20-27	1644.23	1616.78	67.83%	32.17%	-23.22	0-1
1986-01-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-0	1552.33	1539.66	65.94%	34.06%	+19.71	1-0
1986-01-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-24	1572.04	1759.44	15.89%	84.11%	-10.08	1-1
1986-01-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-21	1672.21	1486.86	83.95%	16.05%	+3.59	1-0
1986-01-12	New England Patriots	L 14-31	1675.80	1640.00	68.87%	31.13%	-36.74	1-1
1985-12-28	@ New York Jets	W 26-14	1588.45	1580.19	36.81%	63.19%	+28.33	1-0
1986-01-05	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-20	1616.78	1644.23	32.17%	67.83%	+23.22	2-0
1986-01-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-14	1640.00	1675.80	31.13%	68.87%	+36.74	3-0
1986-01-26	Chicago Bears	L 10-46	1676.74	1769.52	36.96%	63.04%	-28.69	3-1
1985-12-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-3	1607.03	1701.21	51.14%	48.86%	+23.66	1-0
1986-01-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-21	1630.69	1746.27	22.22%	77.78%	-13.18	1-1
1985-12-28	New England Patriots	L 14-26	1580.19	1588.45	63.19%	36.81%	-28.32	0-1
1985-12-29	@ New York Giants	L 3-17	1701.21	1607.03	48.86%	51.14%	-23.66	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1985-09-29	12.45%	New Orleans Saints	1434.00	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1669.97	17
2	1985-12-09	16.97%	Los Angeles Rams	1534.22	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1707.18	20
3	1985-10-27	20.96%	Houston Oilers	1367.33	20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1495.04	10
4	1985-09-22	21.69%	Philadelphia Eagles	1422.34	19	@ Washington Redskins	1542.45	6
5	1985-12-01	23.40%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1501.78	35	@ New York Giants	1604.88	33
6	1985-12-01	23.40%	Minnesota Vikings	1385.68	28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1488.77	23
7	1985-09-30	24.87%	Cincinnati Bengals	1459.45	37	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1548.63	24
8	1985-09-22	26.71%	New York Jets	1465.09	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1537.55	3
9	1985-11-17	27.92%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1331.29	30	Los Angeles Rams	1597.41	14
10	1985-12-22	27.98%	Atlanta Falcons	1338.62	16	@ New Orleans Saints	1400.00	10
11	1985-11-17	28.30%	New England Patriots	1540.81	20	@ Seattle Seahawks	1599.42	13
12	1985-10-13	28.50%	Chicago Bears	1609.73	26	@ San Francisco 49ers	1666.67	10
13	1985-09-08	29.75%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1400.30	28	San Francisco 49ers	1650.89	21
14	1985-09-23	30.06%	Los Angeles Rams	1554.08	35	@ Seattle Seahawks	1597.91	24
15	1985-11-24	30.17%	New Orleans Saints	1366.62	30	@ Minnesota Vikings	1409.56	23
16	1986-01-12 *	31.13%	New England Patriots	1640.00	31	@ Miami Dolphins	1675.80	14
17	1986-01-05 *	32.17%	New England Patriots	1616.78	27	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1644.23	20
18	1985-09-08	32.43%	@ Houston Oilers	1379.75	26	Miami Dolphins	1608.62	23
19	1985-09-29	32.64%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1464.31	21	@ San Diego Chargers	1487.28	7
20	1985-12-08	32.83%	Los Angeles Raiders	1591.57	17	@ Denver Broncos	1613.01	14
21	1985-09-15	33.27%	Minnesota Vikings	1424.32	31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1442.34	16
22	1985-10-27	33.70%	San Francisco 49ers	1617.87	28	@ Los Angeles Rams	1632.52	14
23	1985-10-27	34.23%	Washington Redskins	1509.54	14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1520.12	7
24	1985-11-24	35.16%	Washington Redskins	1550.15	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1553.55	23
25	1985-11-10	35.18%	Dallas Cowboys	1559.94	13	@ Washington Redskins	1563.18	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1985-09-22	43.41	New York Jets	24	1465.09	26.71%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1537.55	73.07%
2	1985-11-17	42.66	Chicago Bears	44	1684.62	50.19%	@ Dallas Cowboys	0	1580.45	49.59%
3	1985-12-01	40.66	@ New Orleans Saints	29	1390.50	38.27%	Los Angeles Rams	3	1574.88	61.51%
4	1985-11-17	37.27	@ Atlanta Falcons	30	1331.29	27.92%	Los Angeles Rams	14	1597.41	71.86%
5	1985-10-13	36.97	Chicago Bears	26	1609.73	28.50%	@ San Francisco 49ers	10	1666.67	71.28%
6	1986-01-12 *	36.74	New England Patriots	31	1640.00	31.13%	@ Miami Dolphins	14	1675.80	68.87%
7	1985-09-22	36.50	Philadelphia Eagles	19	1422.34	21.69%	@ Washington Redskins	6	1542.45	78.09%
8	1985-10-27	36.30	@ Indianapolis Colts	37	1371.15	45.91%	Green Bay Packers	10	1500.98	53.87%
9	1985-09-22	35.08	San Francisco 49ers	34	1634.89	44.55%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	10	1570.04	55.23%
10	1985-09-30	35.02	Cincinnati Bengals	37	1459.45	24.87%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1548.63	74.91%
11	1985-11-03	34.70	@ San Diego Chargers	30	1450.43	39.94%	Denver Broncos	10	1622.64	59.84%
12	1985-12-01	33.71	San Francisco 49ers	35	1673.47	49.75%	@ Washington Redskins	8	1572.31	50.03%
13	1985-09-15	33.39	Minnesota Vikings	31	1424.32	33.27%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	1442.34	66.51%
14	1985-09-29	32.57	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1464.31	32.64%	@ San Diego Chargers	7	1487.28	67.14%
15	1985-10-27	32.32	Houston Oilers	20	1367.33	20.96%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	10	1495.04	78.82%
16	1985-10-27	32.05	San Francisco 49ers	28	1617.87	33.70%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1632.52	66.08%
17	1985-09-08	31.97	Kansas City Chiefs	47	1529.36	44.65%	@ New Orleans Saints	27	1463.77	55.12%
18	1985-11-24	31.85	New York Giants	34	1573.03	55.68%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	3	1430.51	44.10%
19	1985-10-13	31.64	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1435.60	48.92%	St. Louis Cardinals	7	1544.47	50.86%
20	1985-11-03	31.52	@ Seattle Seahawks	33	1541.93	55.41%	Los Angeles Raiders	3	1605.51	44.37%
21	1985-11-03	31.16	Washington Redskins	44	1532.02	58.58%	@ Atlanta Falcons	10	1368.85	41.19%
22	1985-12-08	31.04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	50	1483.20	52.84%	Dallas Cowboys	24	1564.77	46.94%
23	1985-10-27	30.96	Denver Broncos	30	1591.69	46.40%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	10	1513.89	53.38%
24	1985-09-29	30.37	Los Angeles Raiders	35	1534.96	39.31%	@ New England Patriots	20	1507.55	60.47%
25	1985-10-20	30.07	@ Houston Oilers	44	1337.26	43.52%	Cincinnati Bengals	27	1483.88	56.26%