1984 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1981

Runner-Up

Miami Dolphins

5th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1982

Biggest Overachiever

Denver Broncos

4.32 wins above expected

13 wins · 8.68 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Buffalo Bills

3.43 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.43 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	9	7	.562	—	387	310	+77	8.91	+0.09
2	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	.500	1	339	339	0	7.88	+0.12
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	11	.312	4	250	297	-47	7.45	-2.45
4	Houston Oilers	3	13	.188	6	240	437	-197	4.37	-1.37

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	14	2	.875	—	513	298	+215	11.69	+2.31
2	New England Patriots	9	7	.562	5	362	352	+10	8.30	+0.70
3	New York Jets	7	9	.438	7	332	364	-32	8.65	-1.65
4	Indianapolis Colts	4	12	.250	10	239	414	-175	5.55	-1.55
5	Buffalo Bills	2	14	.125	12	250	454	-204	5.43	-3.43

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	13	3	.812	—	353	241	+112	8.68	+4.32
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	12	4	.750	1	418	282	+136	9.87	+2.13
3	Los Angeles Raiders Playoffs	11	5	.688	2	368	278	+90	10.39	+0.61
4	Kansas City Chiefs	8	8	.500	5	314	324	-10	7.53	+0.47
5	San Diego Chargers	7	9	.438	6	394	413	-19	7.12	-0.12

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	10	6	0	.625	—	325	248	+77	8.91	+1.09
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	0	.500	2	390	309	+81	7.79	+0.21
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	0	.375	4	335	380	-45	6.08	-0.08
4	Detroit Lions	4	11	1	.281	5.5	283	408	-125	7.16	-2.66
5	Minnesota Vikings	3	13	0	.188	7	276	484	-208	5.75	-2.75

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	11	5	0	.688	—	426	310	+116	10.57	+0.43
2	New York Giants Playoffs	9	7	0	.562	2	299	301	-2	7.71	+1.29
3	St. Louis Cardinals	9	7	0	.562	2	423	345	+78	8.16	+0.84
4	Dallas Cowboys	9	7	0	.562	2	308	308	0	8.92	+0.08
5	Philadelphia Eagles	6	9	1	.406	4.5	278	320	-42	6.86	-0.36

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	15	1	.938	—	475	227	+248	11.70	+3.30
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	6	.625	5	346	316	+30	8.42	+1.58
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	8	298	361	-63	7.11	-0.11
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	11	281	382	-101	7.02	-3.02

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 13

Los Angeles Raiders 7

Dec 22

Divisional Round

Miami Dolphins 31

Seattle Seahawks 10

Dec 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Denver Broncos 17

Dec 30

Conference Championship

Miami Dolphins 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 28

Jan 6

NFC

Wild Card Round

New York Giants 16

Los Angeles Rams 13

Dec 23

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 21

New York Giants 10

Dec 29

Chicago Bears 23

Washington Redskins 19

Dec 30

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 23

Chicago Bears 0

Jan 6

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 38

Miami Dolphins 16

Jan 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1735	15	11.70	+3.30	99.53%	5	9	11	12	13	14	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1700	14	11.69	+2.31	96.49%	5	9	11	12	13	14	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1648	11	10.39	+0.61	72.70%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1637	13	8.68	+4.32	99.59%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1636	11	10.57	+0.43	69.67%	3	7	9	11	12	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1604	12	9.87	+2.13	92.48%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1581	9	8.16	+0.84	76.22%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1567	8	7.79	+0.21	65.32%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1559	9	8.91	+0.09	62.77%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1553	10	8.42	+1.58	86.63%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1552	8	7.53	+0.47	70.37%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1548	10	8.91	+1.09	79.51%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1538	9	8.92	+0.08	62.41%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1509	9	7.71	+1.29	83.16%	2	5	6	8	9	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1502	8	7.88	+0.12	63.45%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1497	9	8.30	+0.70	73.74%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1469	7	7.12	-0.12	58.66%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1441	5	7.45	-2.45	16.28%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1439	7	7.11	-0.11	59.30%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1433	6.5	6.86	-0.36	43.46%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1423	7	8.65	-1.65	28.04%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1413	6	6.08	-0.08	60.68%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1395	4.5	7.16	-2.66	8.48%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1359	4	7.02	-3.02	8.80%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1328	2	5.43	-3.43	5.01%	0	2	4	5	7	8	12
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1323	3	5.75	-2.75	10.93%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1321	4	5.55	-1.55	29.39%	0	3	4	5	7	9	12
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1290	3	4.37	-1.37	33.32%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-4 (2.1 exp.)	—
New York Jets	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	3-1 (3.2 exp.)	—	—	3-0 (2.3 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.12%	1.56%	0.89%	0.22%	0.22%	4.91%
7–13	0.89%	2.23%	4.69%	2.46%	3.57%	2.68%	1.12%	17.63%
14–20	1.12%	4.69%	9.38%	7.14%	3.79%	1.79%	0.45%	28.35%
21–27	1.56%	2.46%	7.14%	4.91%	3.12%	1.12%	1.34%	21.65%
28–34	0.89%	3.57%	3.79%	3.12%	4.46%	0.89%	0.22%	16.96%
35–41	0.22%	2.68%	1.79%	1.12%	0.89%	—	0.22%	6.92%
42+	0.22%	1.12%	0.45%	1.34%	0.22%	0.22%	—	3.57%
Total	4.91%	17.63%	28.35%	21.65%	16.96%	6.92%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.21	21.21	+0.00
SD	10.24	10.24	15.75
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	52	52	+45
Min	0	0	-45

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	23.88	-6.31
SD	11.21	8.12	14.85
CV	0.64	0.34	—
Max	42	35	+32
Min	5	10	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.62	28.38	-12.75
SD	6.43	12.36	14.51
CV	0.41	0.44	—
Max	28	52	+11
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	15.50	+4.81
SD	10.61	11.68	18.77
CV	0.52	0.75	—
Max	44	38	+35
Min	7	0	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.19	21.19	+0.00
SD	10.92	9.82	14.84
CV	0.52	0.46	—
Max	52	43	+31
Min	6	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	37.50%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.62	18.56	-2.94
SD	7.49	9.22	14.10
CV	0.48	0.50	—
Max	27	41	+17
Min	0	7	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.25	19.25	+0.00
SD	7.72	9.38	12.45
CV	0.40	0.49	—
Max	30	34	+19
Min	3	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.06	15.06	+7.00
SD	9.90	6.97	13.36
CV	0.45	0.46	—
Max	42	27	+30
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	25.50	-7.81
SD	8.19	8.43	11.41
CV	0.46	0.33	—
Max	31	41	+6
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.38	19.31	+5.06
SD	11.67	8.93	15.59
CV	0.48	0.46	—
Max	45	34	+32
Min	6	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	27.31	-12.31
SD	7.00	7.56	10.84
CV	0.47	0.28	—
Max	31	42	+11
Min	3	13	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.94	25.88	-10.94
SD	9.93	12.09	15.57
CV	0.66	0.47	—
Max	35	50	+14
Min	3	5	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.62	20.25	-0.62
SD	12.88	9.31	17.64
CV	0.66	0.46	—
Max	42	45	+27
Min	0	6	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	17.38	+5.62
SD	11.14	9.76	9.46
CV	0.48	0.56	—
Max	45	37	+21
Min	6	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	19.75	+1.88
SD	10.07	8.16	15.16
CV	0.47	0.41	—
Max	34	33	+21
Min	0	10	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	50.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.06	18.62	+13.44
SD	6.48	10.65	12.74
CV	0.20	0.57	—
Max	44	45	+37
Min	21	7	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	30.25	-13.00
SD	8.24	11.14	14.76
CV	0.48	0.37	—
Max	31	51	+7
Min	3	16	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	22.00	+0.62
SD	11.64	8.74	16.56
CV	0.51	0.40	—
Max	50	44	+33
Min	7	10	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.62	22.56	-3.94
SD	8.64	9.72	12.12
CV	0.46	0.43	—
Max	34	36	+17
Min	3	3	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.69	18.81	-0.12
SD	8.48	9.98	14.01
CV	0.45	0.53	—
Max	37	33	+24
Min	3	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.75	22.75	-2.00
SD	8.31	8.93	11.64
CV	0.40	0.39	—
Max	43	41	+21
Min	5	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.38	20.00	-2.62
SD	7.68	7.17	11.26
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	27	34	+14
Min	0	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.19	19.38	+4.81
SD	11.40	8.13	14.73
CV	0.47	0.42	—
Max	52	37	+28
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	—	18.75%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.62	25.81	-1.19
SD	11.52	12.91	17.39
CV	0.47	0.50	—
Max	42	52	+29
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.69	14.19	+15.50
SD	9.65	8.74	13.58
CV	0.33	0.62	—
Max	51	31	+44
Min	14	0	-3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.12	17.62	+8.50
SD	10.14	12.51	19.96
CV	0.39	0.71	—
Max	45	38	+45
Min	7	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.44	21.56	+4.88
SD	8.54	8.43	12.19
CV	0.32	0.39	—
Max	38	36	+30
Min	10	7	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	23.75	-2.81
SD	9.67	9.40	13.02
CV	0.46	0.40	—
Max	41	44	+20
Min	7	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.62	19.38	+7.25
SD	8.19	11.01	15.34
CV	0.31	0.57	—
Max	41	37	+28
Min	10	0	-24

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	13	8.68	+4.32
2	San Francisco 49ers	15	11.70	+3.30
3	Miami Dolphins	14	11.69	+2.31
4	Seattle Seahawks	12	9.87	+2.13
5	Los Angeles Rams	10	8.42	+1.58

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills	2	5.43	-3.43
2	Atlanta Falcons	4	7.02	-3.02
3	Minnesota Vikings	3	5.75	-2.75
4	Detroit Lions	4.5	7.16	-2.66
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	7.45	-2.45

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	10	Sep 16 – Nov 18	1 in 549
2	Miami Dolphins	11	Sep 2 – Nov 11	1 in 60
3	Seattle Seahawks	8	Oct 14 – Dec 2	1 in 32
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 7 – Oct 28	1 in 25
5	Houston Oilers	2	Nov 11 – Nov 18	1 in 22

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atlanta Falcons	9	Oct 14 – Dec 9	1 in 179
2	Buffalo Bills	11	Sep 2 – Nov 11	1 in 165
3	New York Jets	6	Oct 28 – Dec 2	1 in 112
4	Green Bay Packers	7	Sep 9 – Oct 21	1 in 37
5	Houston Oilers	10	Sep 2 – Nov 4	1 in 35

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	52.22%	29.34%	15.79%	2.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.39%	34.93%	30.68%	8.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	20.35%	31.02%	37.02%	11.61%
Houston Oilers	1.04%	4.71%	16.51%	77.74%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	79.46%	15.86%	4.05%	0.57%	0.06%
New York Jets	10.56%	40.18%	31.61%	12.84%	4.81%
New England Patriots	9.03%	33.94%	35.79%	14.93%	6.31%
Indianapolis Colts	0.57%	5.05%	14.33%	36.32%	43.73%
Buffalo Bills	0.38%	4.97%	14.22%	35.34%	45.09%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Los Angeles Raiders	44.95%	27.57%	15.72%	8.41%	3.35%
Seattle Seahawks	31.75%	29.63%	20.69%	11.85%	6.08%
Denver Broncos	13.98%	21.71%	27.25%	22.19%	14.87%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.24%	11.80%	19.97%	28.94%	34.05%
San Diego Chargers	4.08%	9.29%	16.37%	28.61%	41.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	48.92%	24.70%	14.32%	8.29%	3.77%
Green Bay Packers	24.65%	28.65%	22.78%	14.78%	9.14%
Detroit Lions	15.47%	23.15%	24.70%	21.68%	15.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.52%	12.87%	20.32%	26.90%	33.39%
Minnesota Vikings	4.44%	10.63%	17.88%	28.35%	38.70%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	56.55%	23.64%	11.60%	5.94%	2.27%
Dallas Cowboys	19.91%	28.82%	23.77%	17.16%	10.34%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.75%	21.64%	24.73%	23.67%	18.21%
New York Giants	7.89%	16.22%	22.43%	27.15%	26.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.90%	9.68%	17.47%	26.08%	42.87%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	83.09%	13.32%	2.89%	0.70%
Los Angeles Rams	10.46%	44.06%	29.03%	16.45%
New Orleans Saints	3.67%	21.84%	34.13%	40.36%
Atlanta Falcons	2.78%	20.78%	33.95%	42.49%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Miami Dolphins	47.04%	23.22%	11.91%	6.87%	4.44%	2.93%	1.45%	1.08%	0.50%	0.28%	0.20%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%
Los Angeles Raiders	19.07%	20.68%	14.58%	11.69%	9.13%	7.41%	5.67%	4.27%	2.78%	2.15%	1.53%	0.72%	0.29%	0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	12.33%	15.81%	14.30%	11.88%	10.47%	9.22%	7.04%	5.98%	4.56%	3.64%	2.28%	1.41%	0.85%	0.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.81%	9.42%	14.36%	12.47%	11.55%	10.70%	9.25%	7.61%	6.94%	5.41%	3.69%	2.10%	1.19%	0.50%
New York Jets	4.20%	6.20%	8.22%	11.31%	11.93%	10.80%	10.22%	10.16%	7.65%	6.18%	5.27%	3.96%	2.52%	1.38%
Denver Broncos	4.24%	7.48%	8.74%	9.82%	9.91%	10.22%	10.56%	8.94%	8.51%	7.71%	5.72%	4.45%	2.66%	1.04%
New England Patriots	3.18%	4.96%	6.93%	9.37%	10.49%	10.13%	10.55%	11.15%	9.39%	7.87%	6.45%	4.60%	3.29%	1.64%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.56%	4.21%	7.41%	7.85%	8.91%	11.03%	10.45%	10.64%	10.39%	9.28%	7.00%	5.86%	3.60%	1.81%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.03%	2.74%	5.54%	6.56%	8.37%	8.90%	8.99%	10.21%	11.32%	10.50%	9.35%	7.53%	5.79%	3.17%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.33%	2.85%	4.36%	5.75%	5.94%	7.30%	9.24%	9.58%	10.50%	11.52%	10.70%	9.97%	7.55%	3.41%
San Diego Chargers	1.06%	2.00%	2.81%	4.18%	5.18%	6.15%	8.17%	8.66%	10.50%	11.78%	12.02%	12.23%	9.62%	5.64%
Indianapolis Colts	0.07%	0.21%	0.48%	1.02%	1.93%	2.11%	3.42%	4.81%	6.76%	9.26%	13.93%	16.13%	18.27%	21.60%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.18%	0.24%	0.91%	1.35%	2.28%	3.25%	4.77%	6.71%	9.04%	12.87%	16.38%	18.68%	23.27%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.04%	0.12%	0.32%	0.40%	0.82%	1.74%	2.14%	3.49%	5.38%	8.99%	14.60%	25.68%	36.27%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	49.27%	24.78%	10.87%	5.99%	3.91%	2.00%	1.35%	0.82%	0.42%	0.28%	0.17%	0.09%	0.02%	0.03%
Washington Redskins	23.82%	23.83%	15.25%	11.03%	7.30%	5.30%	4.49%	2.54%	2.25%	1.55%	1.21%	0.83%	0.42%	0.18%
Chicago Bears	5.44%	11.14%	16.31%	11.44%	10.19%	9.23%	7.70%	6.93%	5.53%	5.01%	3.84%	3.32%	2.11%	1.81%
Dallas Cowboys	6.01%	10.54%	11.20%	11.83%	10.24%	9.75%	8.91%	7.33%	6.39%	5.71%	4.38%	3.43%	3.00%	1.28%
Los Angeles Rams	4.15%	5.90%	8.72%	11.21%	11.66%	10.43%	9.22%	9.41%	7.61%	6.57%	5.83%	4.93%	2.97%	1.39%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.38%	5.92%	7.50%	9.55%	8.81%	8.69%	9.38%	8.67%	8.06%	8.27%	7.02%	5.48%	5.99%	3.28%
Green Bay Packers	1.83%	4.57%	8.44%	8.31%	8.63%	9.77%	9.23%	8.52%	8.70%	7.75%	7.19%	6.35%	5.54%	5.17%
New York Giants	2.19%	3.87%	5.09%	7.13%	7.98%	7.83%	9.06%	8.70%	8.93%	9.50%	7.94%	7.88%	8.67%	5.23%
Detroit Lions	1.09%	2.58%	4.72%	5.47%	6.97%	8.25%	7.97%	8.75%	9.23%	8.96%	9.44%	9.11%	8.48%	8.98%
New Orleans Saints	1.14%	1.86%	3.34%	5.15%	6.70%	7.91%	8.13%	9.48%	9.63%	9.83%	10.16%	10.88%	9.83%	5.96%
Atlanta Falcons	0.77%	1.66%	2.89%	4.70%	6.21%	7.55%	7.83%	9.50%	9.77%	9.96%	11.50%	11.68%	9.42%	6.56%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.67%	2.01%	2.60%	4.06%	5.14%	5.50%	7.17%	7.65%	8.75%	9.93%	10.22%	11.25%	13.56%	11.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.20%	0.82%	1.80%	2.51%	3.64%	4.31%	5.16%	6.53%	7.59%	8.55%	10.35%	12.14%	14.45%	21.95%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.52%	1.27%	1.62%	2.62%	3.48%	4.40%	5.17%	7.14%	8.13%	10.75%	12.63%	15.54%	26.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	27.17%	20.96%	12.96%	11.08%	6.47%	5.22%	3.84%	3.00%	2.06%	1.84%	1.23%	1.08%	0.73%	0.51%	0.37%	0.46%	0.29%	0.17%	0.19%	0.11%	0.10%	0.04%	0.05%	0.02%	—	0.04%	0.01%	—
Miami Dolphins	26.94%	20.60%	13.62%	10.04%	6.53%	5.28%	3.60%	3.20%	2.16%	1.97%	1.55%	1.19%	0.75%	0.69%	0.52%	0.39%	0.26%	0.17%	0.17%	0.13%	0.07%	0.09%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	—	—	—
Washington Redskins	12.77%	10.94%	11.09%	11.28%	8.18%	7.46%	6.11%	5.29%	4.12%	3.66%	3.12%	2.67%	2.23%	2.18%	1.48%	1.42%	1.11%	1.10%	0.80%	0.81%	0.66%	0.45%	0.40%	0.24%	0.18%	0.16%	0.06%	0.03%
Los Angeles Raiders	9.91%	10.42%	11.14%	9.58%	7.99%	7.14%	6.14%	5.73%	4.66%	3.92%	3.95%	3.32%	2.98%	2.30%	1.95%	1.85%	1.46%	1.20%	1.29%	0.75%	0.68%	0.58%	0.42%	0.31%	0.23%	0.09%	0.01%	—
Seattle Seahawks	5.86%	7.40%	8.64%	8.14%	7.53%	6.52%	6.54%	5.67%	6.02%	4.69%	4.73%	3.90%	3.61%	3.05%	3.12%	2.48%	2.32%	1.91%	1.89%	1.53%	1.15%	0.83%	0.77%	0.68%	0.44%	0.30%	0.19%	0.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.27%	3.09%	4.53%	5.30%	7.14%	6.51%	6.02%	6.42%	5.55%	5.94%	5.37%	5.12%	4.29%	4.56%	3.70%	3.71%	3.42%	3.25%	2.45%	2.93%	2.12%	1.85%	1.28%	1.11%	0.78%	0.67%	0.38%	0.24%
Chicago Bears	2.02%	3.75%	4.88%	5.59%	6.77%	7.19%	5.62%	5.99%	5.65%	5.61%	4.46%	4.44%	4.17%	4.16%	3.66%	3.61%	3.03%	3.43%	2.80%	2.32%	2.42%	1.87%	1.94%	1.39%	1.21%	0.87%	0.81%	0.34%
Dallas Cowboys	2.10%	3.48%	4.54%	5.63%	5.57%	5.77%	6.24%	5.43%	5.34%	5.11%	5.05%	5.35%	4.60%	4.24%	3.99%	3.80%	3.66%	2.95%	3.27%	2.66%	2.45%	2.08%	1.76%	1.50%	1.66%	0.97%	0.54%	0.26%
New York Jets	1.87%	2.64%	3.19%	3.70%	4.24%	5.02%	5.40%	5.68%	5.85%	5.79%	5.31%	5.30%	5.00%	4.84%	4.52%	5.02%	3.42%	3.82%	2.98%	2.97%	2.62%	2.61%	2.08%	2.02%	1.48%	1.22%	0.77%	0.64%
Denver Broncos	1.63%	2.77%	3.95%	4.17%	4.94%	4.56%	5.43%	4.68%	5.37%	4.74%	5.58%	4.79%	4.86%	4.99%	4.37%	4.65%	4.07%	3.43%	3.93%	3.45%	3.06%	2.59%	2.13%	2.02%	1.56%	1.02%	0.89%	0.37%
Los Angeles Rams	1.44%	2.27%	2.82%	3.25%	3.96%	4.83%	5.30%	5.44%	4.88%	6.21%	5.16%	5.14%	4.93%	4.66%	4.72%	4.78%	4.41%	3.86%	3.85%	3.14%	3.12%	2.96%	2.68%	2.12%	1.64%	1.29%	0.72%	0.42%
New England Patriots	1.25%	1.98%	2.78%	2.73%	4.35%	3.45%	5.11%	4.37%	5.35%	4.86%	4.77%	4.88%	5.27%	5.28%	5.53%	5.17%	4.39%	4.57%	3.35%	4.08%	3.33%	3.02%	2.58%	2.28%	1.62%	1.85%	1.10%	0.70%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.24%	1.79%	2.80%	2.79%	3.83%	3.74%	4.49%	4.66%	4.46%	4.51%	4.69%	4.45%	4.67%	5.12%	4.94%	3.94%	4.31%	4.16%	4.51%	3.99%	3.84%	3.59%	2.90%	2.93%	2.97%	2.15%	1.73%	0.80%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.46%	1.04%	1.95%	2.69%	3.29%	3.61%	3.97%	4.26%	4.77%	4.57%	4.85%	5.29%	5.29%	4.92%	5.18%	4.97%	4.86%	5.17%	4.04%	4.56%	3.47%	3.94%	2.96%	3.14%	2.35%	2.14%	1.34%	0.92%
Green Bay Packers	0.58%	1.20%	1.87%	2.42%	3.08%	4.42%	3.60%	4.26%	4.17%	4.49%	4.42%	5.03%	4.59%	5.10%	4.38%	4.50%	4.60%	4.88%	4.25%	4.14%	4.07%	3.51%	3.45%	3.22%	3.28%	2.67%	2.28%	1.54%
New York Giants	0.52%	1.21%	1.68%	2.09%	2.60%	2.73%	3.10%	3.91%	4.00%	3.95%	4.24%	4.10%	4.42%	4.39%	4.81%	4.59%	5.08%	4.43%	5.17%	4.64%	4.71%	4.11%	4.01%	3.93%	4.50%	3.06%	2.45%	1.57%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.36%	0.73%	1.41%	1.64%	2.42%	2.99%	2.99%	3.46%	4.15%	4.00%	4.35%	4.24%	4.63%	4.75%	5.00%	4.62%	4.78%	5.60%	4.72%	5.09%	3.99%	5.37%	3.94%	4.18%	3.16%	3.26%	2.25%	1.92%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.39%	0.81%	1.34%	1.60%	2.54%	2.19%	3.13%	2.95%	3.18%	3.44%	4.23%	3.75%	4.45%	4.12%	5.17%	4.87%	5.15%	4.51%	5.39%	5.48%	5.19%	4.88%	4.79%	4.69%	4.25%	3.27%	2.47%	1.77%
Detroit Lions	0.28%	0.68%	0.90%	1.38%	1.65%	2.39%	2.22%	3.15%	3.30%	3.64%	3.53%	4.33%	3.98%	4.61%	4.22%	4.45%	4.80%	4.90%	4.78%	5.02%	5.30%	4.91%	4.68%	4.78%	4.76%	4.05%	4.59%	2.72%
New Orleans Saints	0.28%	0.64%	0.74%	1.07%	1.32%	1.98%	2.27%	2.62%	3.03%	3.27%	4.02%	3.85%	4.25%	4.14%	4.56%	4.86%	4.93%	5.08%	5.56%	4.83%	5.76%	5.25%	5.32%	5.21%	4.84%	4.68%	3.30%	2.34%
Atlanta Falcons	0.17%	0.40%	0.78%	0.95%	1.18%	1.56%	2.10%	2.40%	2.58%	3.25%	3.43%	4.09%	4.26%	3.91%	4.42%	4.82%	5.20%	5.18%	5.52%	5.27%	6.41%	5.43%	6.00%	5.28%	5.30%	4.15%	3.49%	2.47%
San Diego Chargers	0.27%	0.54%	1.11%	1.07%	1.62%	1.72%	2.41%	2.05%	2.85%	2.67%	3.35%	3.35%	3.90%	3.92%	4.31%	4.89%	4.78%	4.99%	5.09%	5.79%	5.15%	5.64%	5.76%	5.84%	5.30%	4.83%	3.81%	2.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.18%	0.38%	0.74%	0.94%	1.14%	1.69%	1.77%	2.07%	2.22%	2.68%	2.79%	3.06%	3.68%	3.87%	3.83%	4.21%	4.65%	4.55%	5.45%	4.88%	5.59%	5.64%	6.39%	5.59%	6.76%	5.75%	5.54%	3.96%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.11%	0.28%	0.38%	0.65%	0.96%	0.95%	1.20%	1.52%	1.98%	1.80%	2.30%	2.75%	2.91%	2.88%	3.34%	4.07%	3.87%	4.65%	4.75%	5.74%	5.48%	6.80%	6.40%	7.89%	7.57%	11.13%	7.61%
Minnesota Vikings	—	0.05%	0.07%	0.26%	0.47%	0.53%	0.66%	0.96%	0.98%	1.30%	1.42%	2.01%	2.11%	2.33%	2.71%	2.75%	3.49%	3.98%	4.12%	4.43%	5.91%	5.55%	7.11%	6.54%	8.70%	9.39%	12.02%	10.15%
Indianapolis Colts	—	0.06%	0.11%	0.13%	0.32%	0.28%	0.52%	0.51%	0.87%	1.00%	1.10%	1.34%	1.52%	1.79%	2.31%	2.40%	2.95%	3.51%	3.93%	4.76%	5.30%	6.58%	7.25%	8.59%	8.40%	10.14%	10.51%	13.82%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.09%	0.15%	0.18%	0.37%	0.54%	0.72%	0.69%	1.18%	1.09%	1.44%	1.76%	2.42%	2.43%	2.95%	3.74%	3.74%	4.74%	4.69%	6.68%	7.16%	8.10%	8.15%	10.82%	11.16%	14.88%
Houston Oilers	—	0.02%	—	0.01%	0.07%	0.08%	0.10%	0.10%	0.19%	0.22%	0.32%	0.54%	0.64%	0.90%	0.93%	1.02%	1.56%	1.59%	2.11%	2.75%	3.10%	4.47%	5.36%	7.86%	8.57%	13.59%	16.45%	27.45%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	47.04%	24.57%	7.85%	8.05%	5.50%	6.99%
Los Angeles Raiders	19.07%	20.37%	5.51%	16.91%	11.35%	26.79%
Seattle Seahawks	12.33%	14.83%	4.59%	17.79%	12.93%	37.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.81%	11.20%	36.21%	2.42%	4.90%	40.46%
Denver Broncos	4.24%	6.95%	2.79%	12.32%	11.04%	62.66%
New York Jets	4.20%	4.64%	1.72%	13.42%	15.92%	60.10%
New England Patriots	3.18%	4.14%	1.71%	11.29%	12.70%	66.98%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.56%	4.91%	19.92%	2.65%	5.34%	65.62%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.33%	2.78%	1.13%	6.63%	6.71%	81.42%
San Diego Chargers	1.06%	1.94%	1.08%	4.52%	5.06%	86.34%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.03%	3.22%	16.10%	2.46%	4.99%	72.20%
Indianapolis Colts	0.07%	0.24%	0.26%	0.79%	1.87%	96.77%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.14%	0.17%	0.67%	1.46%	97.49%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.07%	0.96%	0.08%	0.23%	98.65%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	49.27%	25.66%	8.16%	7.07%	4.48%	5.36%
Washington Redskins	23.82%	23.94%	8.79%	14.97%	8.82%	19.66%
Dallas Cowboys	6.01%	9.78%	4.12%	16.03%	12.47%	51.59%
Chicago Bears	5.44%	12.33%	31.15%	3.40%	5.60%	42.08%
Los Angeles Rams	4.15%	4.27%	2.04%	15.75%	14.23%	59.56%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.38%	5.69%	2.68%	11.87%	10.05%	66.33%
New York Giants	2.19%	3.50%	2.20%	8.09%	8.83%	75.19%
Green Bay Packers	1.83%	5.25%	17.57%	3.31%	5.86%	66.18%
New Orleans Saints	1.14%	1.58%	0.95%	5.90%	7.78%	82.65%
Detroit Lions	1.09%	3.10%	11.28%	2.27%	5.03%	77.23%
Atlanta Falcons	0.77%	1.30%	0.71%	5.59%	6.99%	84.64%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.67%	1.96%	1.27%	4.25%	5.53%	86.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.20%	1.03%	5.29%	0.95%	2.47%	90.06%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.61%	3.79%	0.55%	1.86%	93.15%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	91.76%	91.76%	69.03%	49.84%	30.05%
Miami Dolphins	88.80%	88.80%	59.96%	40.00%	21.47%
Washington Redskins	72.18%	72.18%	42.90%	20.61%	10.64%
Los Angeles Raiders	64.40%	64.40%	39.46%	20.88%	9.90%
Seattle Seahawks	50.45%	50.45%	26.96%	11.57%	5.19%
Denver Broncos	28.86%	28.86%	15.63%	7.71%	3.82%
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.15%	55.15%	22.66%	9.01%	3.50%
Chicago Bears	53.60%	53.60%	21.29%	7.04%	2.97%
Dallas Cowboys	35.11%	35.11%	14.44%	5.15%	2.33%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.61%	24.61%	11.02%	4.43%	1.95%
Green Bay Packers	29.41%	29.41%	11.74%	4.48%	1.93%
Los Angeles Rams	29.98%	26.05%	12.08%	4.26%	1.70%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.46%	29.46%	8.78%	2.69%	0.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.34%	11.90%	5.20%	1.96%	0.75%
New England Patriots	23.99%	18.26%	7.04%	2.34%	0.65%
New York Giants	16.92%	15.58%	5.53%	1.79%	0.58%
New York Jets	29.34%	19.16%	5.86%	1.64%	0.51%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	22.92%	22.92%	5.32%	1.31%	0.35%
San Diego Chargers	9.58%	7.67%	2.69%	0.85%	0.25%
New Orleans Saints	13.68%	8.19%	2.43%	0.64%	0.18%
Detroit Lions	17.66%	17.66%	3.68%	0.66%	0.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.50%	7.50%	1.55%	0.30%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.78%	7.47%	2.20%	0.52%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	12.58%	6.06%	1.54%	0.19%	0.03%
Houston Oilers	1.06%	1.06%	0.15%	0.01%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	2.13%	0.75%	0.14%	0.01%	—
Indianapolis Colts	2.66%	1.16%	0.15%	0.02%	—
Minnesota Vikings	4.82%	4.82%	0.57%	0.09%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%		0.04%	0.08%		0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%		0.07%	0.31%	0.01%	0.05%	0.19%	0.42%	0.07%	0.46%	0.54%	0.04%	0.25%	0.59%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.06%	0.06%		0.25%	0.01%	0.06%	0.17%	0.27%	0.06%	0.42%	0.51%	0.05%	0.26%	0.39%
Denver Broncos	0.33%	0.66%	0.72%		0.04%	0.31%	0.88%	1.24%	0.94%	2.50%	3.89%	0.72%	0.57%	2.08%
Houston Oilers				0.01%						0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		0.03%	0.04%	0.04%	0.01%		0.04%	0.12%		0.05%	0.07%	0.03%	0.05%	0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.17%	0.31%	0.36%	0.66%	0.01%	0.19%		0.57%	0.34%	1.14%	1.69%	0.25%	0.22%	0.75%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.37%	1.20%	1.10%	1.59%	0.06%	0.58%	1.26%		1.10%	3.65%	5.25%	0.92%	0.93%	1.44%
Miami Dolphins	0.10%	0.48%	0.28%	1.27%		0.08%	0.84%	1.64%		0.59%	0.67%	0.38%	0.89%	2.12%
New England Patriots	0.05%	0.40%	0.50%	1.06%	0.04%	0.11%	1.03%	1.46%	0.12%		1.24%	0.53%	0.84%	1.85%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.43%	0.36%	1.17%	0.05%	0.09%	0.85%	1.42%	0.11%	0.79%		0.36%	1.04%	1.88%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.04%	0.06%	0.01%	0.29%		0.08%	0.16%	0.43%	0.12%	0.42%	0.59%		0.26%	0.47%
San Diego Chargers	0.10%	0.22%	0.25%	0.13%		0.06%	0.18%	0.25%	0.14%	0.74%	1.02%	0.20%		0.30%
Seattle Seahawks	0.42%	1.06%	1.17%	1.65%	0.05%	0.46%	1.04%	0.91%	1.21%	3.96%	5.23%	0.89%	0.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.09%	0.82%	0.23%	0.14%	0.26%	0.10%	0.13%	0.34%	0.26%	0.02%	0.38%	0.09%	0.42%
Chicago Bears	0.41%		0.82%	0.11%	0.02%	0.65%	0.03%	0.35%	0.65%	0.37%	0.17%	0.44%	0.06%	0.60%
Dallas Cowboys	1.96%	0.85%		0.85%	0.87%	2.86%	0.36%	2.03%	1.38%	0.83%	0.56%	1.43%	0.53%	0.69%
Detroit Lions	0.25%	0.02%	0.40%		0.08%	0.26%		0.23%	0.25%	0.19%	0.05%	0.21%	0.02%	0.23%
Green Bay Packers	0.43%	0.04%	0.89%	0.10%		0.86%	0.08%	0.43%	0.55%	0.28%	0.13%	0.50%	0.05%	0.42%
Los Angeles Rams	0.85%	0.79%	3.23%	0.82%	0.62%		0.34%	0.71%	1.89%	1.59%	0.10%	2.22%	0.37%	2.06%
Minnesota Vikings	0.09%		0.08%			0.09%		0.03%	0.03%	0.01%		0.02%		0.03%
New Orleans Saints	0.20%	0.10%	0.91%	0.27%	0.19%	0.52%	0.10%		0.55%	0.40%	0.12%	0.45%	0.18%	0.53%
New York Giants	0.84%	0.37%	0.91%	0.44%	0.54%	1.42%	0.17%	0.94%		0.36%	0.30%	0.60%	0.25%	0.55%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.59%	0.09%	0.37%	0.27%	0.21%	0.61%	0.06%	0.47%	0.21%		0.08%	0.26%	0.11%	0.24%
San Francisco 49ers	0.25%	0.32%	1.92%	0.32%	0.48%	0.22%	0.12%	0.36%	1.11%	0.69%		1.35%	0.15%	1.38%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.64%	0.77%	1.49%	0.72%	0.46%	2.94%	0.28%	1.49%	0.93%	0.40%	0.48%		0.33%	0.93%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.08%	0.03%	0.12%	0.01%	0.01%	0.13%		0.05%	0.15%	0.10%	0.04%	0.18%		0.08%
Washington Redskins	1.71%	0.85%	1.34%	0.97%	0.79%	3.57%	0.39%	1.94%	1.19%	0.73%	0.83%	1.02%	0.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%			0.04%				0.01%		0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%			0.72%		0.04%	0.42%	2.01%	1.58%	0.68%	0.83%		0.39%	2.08%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%			0.49%		0.05%	0.22%	1.27%	0.76%	0.38%	0.54%		0.37%	1.23%
Denver Broncos	0.05%	2.12%	1.67%		0.09%	0.12%			4.77%	1.29%	1.64%	3.88%
Houston Oilers				0.01%				0.02%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%			0.05%
Indianapolis Colts		0.02%	0.03%	0.02%				0.01%				0.02%	0.01%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.68%	0.61%		0.05%	0.07%			1.77%	0.43%	0.51%	1.07%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.23%	6.29%	5.19%		0.28%	0.34%			9.20%	3.77%	4.37%	9.79%
Miami Dolphins		5.44%	4.31%	8.87%	0.15%		4.25%	13.49%				7.91%	2.85%	12.69%
New England Patriots		0.92%	0.98%	0.49%	0.06%		0.45%	1.46%				1.28%	0.28%	1.12%
New York Jets		0.73%	0.76%	0.45%	0.05%		0.19%	1.08%				1.42%	0.19%	0.99%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.12%			2.16%		0.11%	1.17%	5.56%	3.07%	1.95%	2.37%		0.89%	5.26%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.47%	0.36%		0.01%	0.04%			0.79%	0.25%	0.24%	0.51%
Seattle Seahawks	0.14%	4.00%	3.67%		0.21%	0.24%			6.86%	2.45%	2.79%	6.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.37%	0.22%	0.22%	0.12%		0.03%		0.08%	0.03%		0.10%	0.12%	0.25%
Chicago Bears	0.84%		3.62%			2.63%		1.09%	1.72%	1.11%	2.91%	1.85%		5.52%
Dallas Cowboys	0.57%	3.47%		1.71%	1.97%	1.32%	0.57%	0.63%			3.46%		0.74%
Detroit Lions	0.15%		0.83%			0.39%		0.20%	0.32%	0.12%	0.42%	0.40%		0.85%
Green Bay Packers	0.40%		1.94%			1.13%		0.43%	0.84%	0.48%	2.24%	0.89%		3.39%
Los Angeles Rams		2.19%	1.61%	1.13%	1.17%		0.27%		0.76%	0.46%		0.87%	0.31%	3.31%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%		0.13%			0.08%		0.03%	0.07%	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%		0.16%
New Orleans Saints		0.46%	0.20%	0.35%	0.31%		0.05%		0.18%	0.05%		0.17%	0.08%	0.58%
New York Giants	0.23%	1.37%		0.75%	0.58%	0.52%	0.20%	0.30%			1.41%		0.17%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.10%	0.55%		0.15%	0.21%	0.26%	0.10%	0.11%			0.62%		0.10%
San Francisco 49ers		10.74%	11.87%	4.09%	6.34%		1.28%		5.95%	2.94%		9.17%	1.87%	14.78%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.43%	2.48%		1.10%	1.36%	0.97%	0.30%	0.53%			3.35%		0.50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.08%		0.25%			0.17%		0.06%	0.13%	0.06%	0.24%	0.12%		0.44%
Washington Redskins	1.71%	10.68%		4.48%	5.61%	6.50%	1.45%	2.38%			8.03%		2.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills								0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals			0.07%	0.16%			0.15%	0.41%	1.10%	0.11%	0.12%	0.16%	0.03%	0.38%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		0.05%		0.07%		0.01%	0.05%	0.22%	0.35%	0.10%	0.06%	0.10%	0.05%	0.25%
Denver Broncos		0.57%	0.26%			0.02%	0.24%	1.97%	2.26%	0.14%	0.15%	0.86%	0.12%	1.12%
Houston Oilers							0.01%
Indianapolis Colts				0.01%						0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.13%	0.10%	0.06%	0.01%			0.41%	0.52%	0.07%	0.08%	0.27%	0.01%	0.30%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.02%	1.23%	0.71%	2.14%	0.04%	0.02%	0.72%		7.06%	0.87%	0.75%	2.68%	0.43%	4.21%
Miami Dolphins	0.06%	2.87%	2.14%	3.29%	0.06%	0.06%	1.34%	10.24%		2.34%	2.19%	7.39%	0.75%	7.27%
New England Patriots		0.18%	0.10%	0.17%			0.03%	0.34%	0.90%		0.05%	0.36%	0.02%	0.19%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.12%	0.06%	0.08%	0.01%		0.01%	0.24%	0.57%	0.08%		0.23%	0.02%	0.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.26%	0.17%	0.77%			0.27%	1.65%	3.55%	0.42%	0.38%		0.11%	1.41%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.10%	0.09%	0.03%			0.03%	0.15%	0.17%	0.06%	0.04%	0.12%		0.05%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	0.58%	0.31%	1.14%	0.02%	0.02%	0.39%	2.94%	3.48%	0.50%	0.40%	1.48%	0.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.02%			0.04%			0.01%	0.02%		0.08%			0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.07%		0.64%	0.06%	0.23%	0.47%	0.03%	0.15%	0.26%	0.12%	2.89%	0.51%	0.05%	1.56%
Dallas Cowboys	0.05%	0.53%		0.11%	0.36%	0.24%	0.01%	0.05%	0.23%	0.07%	1.64%	0.42%	0.07%	1.37%
Detroit Lions	0.01%	0.07%	0.05%		0.02%	0.06%		0.04%			0.23%	0.04%	0.01%	0.13%
Green Bay Packers	0.09%	0.43%	0.36%	0.06%		0.38%		0.08%	0.21%	0.18%	1.66%	0.28%	0.02%	0.73%
Los Angeles Rams	0.04%	0.54%	0.21%	0.14%	0.26%		0.01%	0.08%	0.14%	0.02%	1.82%	0.14%	0.08%	0.78%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%		0.03%			0.01%					0.02%			0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%		0.06%	0.01%	0.16%	0.05%	0.01%	0.12%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.27%	0.18%	0.04%	0.10%	0.04%		0.02%		0.06%	0.50%	0.12%	0.01%	0.44%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.09%	0.04%		0.01%	0.05%			0.04%		0.14%			0.14%
San Francisco 49ers	0.78%	8.98%	5.15%	1.85%	4.44%	5.14%	0.32%	0.97%	1.74%	0.74%		3.36%	0.72%	15.65%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.04%	0.48%	0.33%	0.10%	0.32%	0.19%	0.03%	0.06%	0.11%	0.05%	1.39%		0.08%	1.25%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.01%			0.07%	0.02%		0.08%
Washington Redskins	0.22%	2.77%	2.20%	0.61%	1.42%	1.20%	0.07%	0.32%	0.93%	0.43%	8.59%	1.65%	0.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons				0.01%							0.01%			0.01%
Chicago Bears				0.14%	0.08%		0.19%				0.05%	0.66%		0.92%		0.10%			0.12%		0.32%	0.02%		0.37%
Cincinnati Bengals			0.09%			0.08%		0.02%	0.03%				0.06%				0.02%	0.03%		0.02%			0.34%		0.02%		0.26%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			0.01%			0.02%		0.01%	0.03%				0.01%					0.02%		0.01%			0.14%		0.03%		0.07%
Dallas Cowboys				0.05%	0.09%		0.23%				0.05%	0.52%		0.63%		0.08%			0.03%		0.26%	0.04%		0.35%
Denver Broncos	0.02%		0.31%			0.17%		0.04%	0.15%				0.20%				0.04%	0.07%		0.01%			1.56%		0.21%	0.01%	1.03%
Detroit Lions				0.03%								0.03%		0.03%							0.02%
Green Bay Packers				0.09%	0.09%		0.11%				0.07%	0.43%		0.62%		0.07%			0.06%		0.16%	0.01%		0.22%
Houston Oilers						0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs			0.06%			0.04%		0.01%	0.05%								0.01%	0.03%		0.02%			0.39%		0.03%	0.01%	0.10%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.03%		0.74%			0.54%		0.10%	0.60%				0.67%		0.02%		0.09%	0.21%		0.07%			4.03%		0.51%	0.04%	2.25%
Los Angeles Rams				0.07%	0.02%		0.08%				0.03%	0.40%		0.58%		0.06%			0.02%		0.24%	0.02%		0.18%
Miami Dolphins	0.10%		1.82%			1.32%		0.24%	1.14%				1.04%		0.04%		0.15%	0.52%		0.21%			9.34%		1.20%	0.09%	4.26%
New England Patriots			0.05%			0.06%		0.01%	0.04%				0.02%					0.03%		0.01%			0.24%		0.01%	0.01%	0.17%
New Orleans Saints					0.01%		0.03%				0.01%	0.04%		0.04%							0.03%			0.02%
New York Giants				0.02%			0.05%				0.02%	0.12%		0.16%		0.03%			0.02%		0.07%	0.02%		0.07%
New York Jets			0.07%			0.03%			0.06%				0.02%				0.01%	0.01%					0.20%		0.01%	0.01%	0.09%
Philadelphia Eagles												0.02%		0.05%							0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers			0.40%			0.23%		0.01%	0.22%				0.23%		0.02%		0.07%	0.09%		0.04%			1.39%		0.17%	0.02%	0.61%
San Diego Chargers			0.01%			0.05%		0.01%															0.08%		0.01%	0.01%	0.08%
San Francisco 49ers		0.01%		0.87%	0.48%		2.16%			0.01%	0.69%	6.34%		10.97%		0.92%			0.53%		3.06%	0.31%		3.70%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%		0.51%			0.27%		0.10%	0.23%				0.31%		0.01%		0.07%	0.20%		0.05%			2.08%		0.28%	0.02%	1.05%
St. Louis Cardinals				0.09%	0.01%		0.11%				0.04%	0.33%		0.80%		0.06%			0.06%		0.21%	0.04%		0.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers							0.02%				0.01%	0.02%		0.02%							0.01%
Washington Redskins				0.35%	0.18%		0.91%			0.01%	0.23%	2.07%		3.70%		0.37%			0.29%		1.12%	0.14%		1.27%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	80.12%	57.43%	34.08%	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	64.23%	44.77%	23.51%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	68.38%	28.19%	12.55%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	100.00%	68.28%	25.76%	11.99%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Raiders	48.41%	18.72%	9.59%	4.86%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	31.62%	10.16%	3.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Seattle Seahawks	51.59%	17.05%	7.29%	3.10%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	100.00%	23.88%	8.44%	2.94%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Los Angeles Rams	64.19%	20.88%	5.99%	2.23%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	35.81%	6.84%	2.38%	0.97%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Raiders	Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Raiders		48.41%
Seattle Seahawks	51.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants
Los Angeles Rams		64.19%
New York Giants	35.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos				68.38%
Los Angeles Raiders			18.72%
Miami Dolphins		29.69%			34.54%
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.62%
Seattle Seahawks			17.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				13.04%	10.84%
Los Angeles Rams					20.88%
New York Giants				6.84%
San Francisco 49ers	51.15%		28.97%
Washington Redskins	24.97%	43.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos		6.54%	14.71%		6.94%
Los Angeles Raiders	6.10%			3.49%
Miami Dolphins	29.35%			15.42%
Pittsburgh Steelers		2.59%	4.75%		2.82%
Seattle Seahawks	4.74%			2.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		2.35%	1.30%	2.00%	2.79%
Los Angeles Rams	2.02%			3.97%
New York Giants	0.92%				1.46%
San Francisco 49ers	6.62%	12.54%			38.27%
Washington Redskins	5.88%		3.16%	16.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	New York Giants	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		0.82%	0.26%		1.15%		0.41%		0.30%
Denver Broncos	1.48%			0.87%		0.38%		6.05%		3.77%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.52%			0.38%		0.20%		2.42%		1.34%
Los Angeles Rams		0.63%	0.19%		0.96%		0.27%		0.18%
Miami Dolphins	2.68%			1.85%		0.61%		11.93%		6.44%
New York Giants		0.35%	0.06%		0.38%		0.13%		0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.45%			0.39%		0.10%		1.54%		1.29%
San Francisco 49ers		10.28%	2.98%		13.93%		4.04%		2.85%
Seattle Seahawks	0.37%			0.27%		0.12%		1.41%		0.93%
Washington Redskins		3.56%	1.24%		4.84%		1.54%		0.81%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 34.08% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

63.84%

Win Prob

79.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

66.64%

Win Prob

69.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

40.87%

Win Prob

53.87%

Miami Dolphins 23.51% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

53.78%

Win Prob

66.95%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

65.56%

Win Prob

66.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

50.74%

Win Prob

46.13%

Denver Broncos 12.55% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

52.18%

Win Prob

33.39%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

48.21%

Win Prob

37.05%

Washington Redskins 11.99% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

63.43%

Win Prob

67.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

64.91%

Win Prob

30.41%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

40.37%

Win Prob

42.91%

Los Angeles Raiders 4.86% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.41%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.67%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

63.61%

Win Prob

48.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

49.79%

Win Prob

44.81%

Pittsburgh Steelers 3.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.62%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

46.75%

Win Prob

23.55%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.85%

Win Prob

27.60%

Seattle Seahawks 3.10% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.59%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

65.02%

Win Prob

40.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

45.48%

Win Prob

33.10%

Chicago Bears 2.94% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

54.61%

Win Prob

20.31%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

33.06%

Win Prob

32.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

39.12%

Win Prob

30.03%

Los Angeles Rams 2.23% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.19%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.53%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

66.28%

Win Prob

24.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

43.05%

Win Prob

34.16%

New York Giants 0.97% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.81%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

19.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

61.34%

Win Prob

31.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

39.18%

Win Prob

38.38%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1984-09-02	@ New Orleans Saints	W 36-28	1491.46	1479.41	43.63%	55.85%	+19.91	1-0
1984-09-09	Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1511.37	1512.45	57.40%	42.09%	-12.53	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-27	1498.84	1432.47	51.41%	48.07%	-17.14	1-2
1984-09-23	Houston Oilers	W 42-10	1481.70	1357.06	73.42%	26.06%	+18.63	2-2
1984-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 5-14	1500.33	1615.00	27.18%	72.30%	-10.31	2-3
1984-10-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-28	1490.02	1523.55	37.32%	62.16%	+11.08	3-3
1984-10-14	New York Giants	L 7-19	1501.10	1446.73	64.92%	34.56%	-28.33	3-4
1984-10-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1472.77	1540.69	47.85%	51.64%	-22.57	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-35	1450.20	1509.30	33.95%	65.54%	-21.43	3-6
1984-11-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1428.77	1600.14	21.22%	78.27%	-9.67	3-7
1984-11-11	New Orleans Saints	L 13-17	1419.10	1430.70	55.91%	43.57%	-14.09	3-8
1984-11-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-23	1405.01	1403.24	57.80%	41.69%	-29.12	3-9
1984-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-35	1375.89	1442.58	32.97%	66.51%	-19.08	3-10
1984-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-35	1356.81	1715.65	14.67%	84.82%	-7.88	3-11
1984-12-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-23	1348.93	1362.84	40.00%	59.48%	-20.81	3-12
1984-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-10	1328.12	1463.49	38.36%	61.13%	+30.80	4-12
1984-09-02	New England Patriots	L 17-21	1469.00	1495.01	53.86%	45.62%	-13.58	0-1
1984-09-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-37	1455.42	1498.09	36.10%	63.38%	-24.95	0-2
1984-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1430.47	1622.11	31.04%	68.45%	-7.84	0-3
1984-09-23	New York Jets	L 26-28	1422.63	1525.81	42.82%	56.66%	-7.64	0-4
1984-09-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-31	1414.99	1418.28	41.47%	58.01%	-19.58	0-5
1984-10-07	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1395.41	1422.24	53.75%	45.73%	-21.42	0-6
1984-10-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 28-31	1373.99	1567.72	19.14%	80.34%	-4.19	0-7
1984-10-21	Denver Broncos	L 7-37	1369.80	1556.59	31.64%	67.85%	-21.88	0-8
1984-10-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-38	1347.92	1706.07	8.42%	91.07%	-5.94	0-9
1984-11-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1341.98	1410.30	47.79%	51.69%	-10.43	0-10
1984-11-11	@ New England Patriots	L 10-38	1331.55	1517.40	19.86%	79.63%	-13.29	0-11
1984-11-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 14-3	1318.26	1550.37	26.28%	73.20%	+30.58	1-11
1984-11-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-41	1348.84	1599.93	14.54%	84.94%	-9.56	1-12
1984-12-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-15	1339.28	1349.52	56.11%	43.38%	+13.40	2-12
1984-12-08	@ New York Jets	L 17-21	1352.68	1444.91	29.81%	69.67%	-7.53	2-13
1984-12-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-52	1345.15	1484.79	24.43%	75.05%	-17.19	2-14
1984-09-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-14	1490.10	1426.55	66.11%	33.37%	+18.85	1-0
1984-09-09	Denver Broncos	W 27-0	1508.95	1479.88	61.56%	37.92%	+24.87	2-0
1984-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 9-7	1533.82	1484.42	48.97%	50.51%	+9.00	3-0
1984-09-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-38	1542.82	1541.65	42.10%	57.38%	-28.60	3-1
1984-09-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-23	1514.22	1565.69	50.21%	49.27%	-18.99	3-2
1984-10-07	New Orleans Saints	W 20-7	1495.23	1498.09	57.15%	42.34%	+19.26	4-2
1984-10-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-38	1514.49	1523.38	40.69%	58.79%	-21.17	4-3
1984-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 44-9	1493.32	1417.56	52.76%	46.72%	+34.85	5-3
1984-10-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-7	1528.17	1418.57	71.72%	27.76%	+10.52	6-3
1984-11-04	Los Angeles Raiders	W 17-6	1538.69	1641.95	42.81%	56.67%	+23.68	7-3
1984-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-29	1562.37	1543.31	44.63%	54.85%	-22.51	7-4
1984-11-18	Detroit Lions	W 16-14	1539.86	1434.94	71.18%	28.30%	+5.06	8-4
1984-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-3	1544.92	1383.88	64.56%	34.93%	+24.55	9-4
1984-12-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-20	1569.47	1482.87	54.31%	45.17%	-24.68	9-5
1984-12-09	Green Bay Packers	L 14-20	1544.79	1530.13	59.59%	39.89%	-18.38	9-6
1984-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-13	1526.41	1417.03	57.53%	41.95%	+21.82	10-6
1984-09-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1515.99	1469.27	48.59%	50.89%	-10.61	0-1
1984-09-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-27	1505.38	1522.04	55.20%	44.29%	-15.55	0-2
1984-09-16	@ New York Jets	L 23-43	1489.83	1503.20	40.07%	59.41%	-22.61	0-3
1984-09-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-24	1467.22	1477.73	56.07%	43.41%	-22.34	0-4
1984-10-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-38	1444.88	1504.35	33.90%	65.58%	-19.62	0-5
1984-10-07	Houston Oilers	W 13-3	1425.26	1318.81	71.36%	28.12%	+11.24	1-5
1984-10-14	@ New England Patriots	L 14-20	1436.50	1519.63	30.92%	68.57%	-9.57	1-6
1984-10-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 12-9	1426.93	1429.18	57.23%	42.25%	+9.24	2-6
1984-10-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-13	1436.17	1295.57	61.84%	37.65%	+20.15	3-6
1984-11-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-23	1456.32	1671.11	17.34%	82.15%	-5.37	3-7
1984-11-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 22-20	1450.95	1540.26	44.79%	54.70%	+9.75	4-7
1984-11-18	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-26	1460.70	1643.97	32.08%	67.41%	-18.12	4-8
1984-11-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-14	1442.58	1375.89	66.51%	32.97%	+19.08	5-8
1984-12-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1461.66	1445.87	44.16%	55.32%	+12.08	6-8
1984-12-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-21	1473.74	1425.33	48.83%	50.65%	+11.05	7-8
1984-12-16	Buffalo Bills	W 52-21	1484.79	1345.15	75.05%	24.43%	+17.19	8-8
1984-09-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-33	1493.06	1522.39	37.89%	61.59%	-27.47	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1465.59	1484.94	39.25%	60.23%	-8.58	0-2
1984-09-16	Denver Broncos	L 14-24	1457.01	1455.01	57.83%	41.65%	-23.03	0-3
1984-09-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1433.98	1526.31	44.36%	55.13%	+21.96	1-3
1984-09-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-10	1455.94	1501.03	35.78%	63.70%	-9.03	1-4
1984-10-07	New England Patriots	L 16-17	1446.91	1513.57	48.03%	51.46%	-6.06	1-5
1984-10-14	New York Jets	L 20-24	1440.85	1519.61	46.29%	53.19%	-11.67	1-6
1984-10-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 9-12	1429.18	1426.93	42.25%	57.23%	-9.23	1-7
1984-10-28	New Orleans Saints	L 14-16	1419.95	1443.97	54.15%	45.33%	-9.65	1-8
1984-11-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1410.30	1341.98	51.69%	47.79%	+10.43	2-8
1984-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-41	1420.73	1676.49	23.73%	75.75%	-17.49	2-9
1984-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1403.24	1405.01	41.69%	57.80%	+29.13	3-9
1984-11-25	Houston Oilers	W 27-10	1432.37	1306.50	73.56%	25.92%	+13.50	4-9
1984-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1445.87	1461.66	55.32%	44.16%	-12.07	4-10
1984-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1433.80	1529.42	29.40%	70.08%	-6.43	4-11
1984-12-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-20	1427.37	1303.06	59.61%	39.87%	+13.31	5-11
1984-09-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-13	1557.37	1501.47	49.91%	49.57%	+16.53	1-0
1984-09-09	@ New York Giants	L 7-28	1573.90	1467.84	57.07%	42.41%	-32.94	1-1
1984-09-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1540.96	1460.21	68.27%	31.21%	+9.65	2-1
1984-09-23	Green Bay Packers	W 20-6	1550.61	1475.42	67.58%	31.90%	+15.08	3-1
1984-09-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-14	1565.69	1514.22	49.27%	50.21%	+18.98	4-1
1984-10-07	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-31	1584.67	1494.38	69.44%	30.04%	-29.00	4-2
1984-10-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-34	1555.67	1634.53	31.44%	68.04%	-17.76	4-3
1984-10-21	New Orleans Saints	W 30-27	1537.91	1450.62	69.07%	30.41%	+6.65	5-3
1984-10-28	Indianapolis Colts	W 22-3	1544.56	1408.62	74.66%	24.82%	+13.68	6-3
1984-11-04	New York Giants	L 7-19	1558.24	1496.08	65.93%	33.55%	-28.77	6-4
1984-11-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-17	1529.47	1567.02	36.78%	62.70%	+20.90	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-14	1550.37	1318.26	73.20%	26.28%	-30.58	7-5
1984-11-22	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1519.79	1557.25	52.23%	47.26%	+10.32	8-5
1984-12-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-10	1530.11	1467.39	50.89%	48.59%	+24.51	9-5
1984-12-09	Washington Redskins	L 28-30	1554.62	1620.99	48.07%	51.42%	-8.57	9-6
1984-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-28	1546.05	1692.36	23.73%	75.76%	-7.94	9-7
1984-09-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1469.27	1515.99	50.89%	48.59%	+10.61	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-27	1479.88	1508.95	37.92%	61.56%	-24.87	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-14	1455.01	1457.01	41.65%	57.83%	+23.03	2-1
1984-09-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-0	1478.04	1529.49	50.22%	49.27%	+28.46	3-1
1984-09-30	Los Angeles Raiders	W 16-13	1506.50	1636.06	39.15%	60.33%	+13.17	4-1
1984-10-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1519.67	1492.56	45.77%	53.71%	+31.01	5-1
1984-10-15	Green Bay Packers	W 17-14	1550.68	1434.61	72.46%	27.02%	+5.91	6-1
1984-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 37-7	1556.59	1369.80	67.85%	31.64%	+21.89	7-1
1984-10-28	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 22-19	1578.48	1656.78	31.51%	67.97%	+14.82	8-1
1984-11-04	New England Patriots	W 26-19	1593.30	1528.49	66.27%	33.21%	+11.10	9-1
1984-11-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1604.40	1496.35	57.35%	42.13%	+9.21	10-1
1984-11-18	Minnesota Vikings	W 42-21	1613.61	1393.68	82.56%	16.92%	+9.80	11-1
1984-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1623.41	1662.08	52.05%	47.43%	-11.36	11-2
1984-12-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-16	1612.05	1461.01	63.24%	36.25%	-13.80	11-3
1984-12-09	San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1598.25	1507.54	69.49%	29.99%	+6.57	12-3
1984-12-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-14	1604.82	1636.65	37.55%	61.93%	+32.16	13-3
1984-09-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-30	1523.75	1564.34	51.78%	47.71%	-11.30	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1512.45	1511.37	42.09%	57.40%	+12.52	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-21	1524.97	1398.89	59.86%	39.63%	-15.08	1-2
1984-09-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-29	1509.89	1449.62	65.69%	33.79%	-8.27	1-3
1984-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1501.62	1505.16	41.44%	58.04%	-9.06	1-4
1984-10-07	Denver Broncos	L 7-28	1492.56	1519.67	53.71%	45.77%	-31.01	1-5
1984-10-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-7	1461.55	1429.14	62.01%	37.47%	+11.58	2-5
1984-10-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 16-14	1473.13	1427.68	48.41%	51.08%	+9.11	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-41	1482.24	1417.16	51.23%	48.25%	-36.52	3-6
1984-11-04	Philadelphia Eagles	T 23-23	1445.72	1452.65	56.57%	42.91%	-0.43	3-6
1984-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-28	1445.29	1609.81	21.88%	77.60%	-10.35	3-7
1984-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-16	1434.94	1539.86	28.30%	71.18%	-5.06	3-8
1984-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 31-28	1429.88	1531.60	43.03%	56.46%	+12.32	4-8
1984-12-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-38	1442.20	1673.45	16.02%	83.46%	-9.29	4-9
1984-12-10	Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-24	1432.91	1654.91	27.42%	72.06%	-15.88	4-10
1984-12-16	Chicago Bears	L 13-30	1417.03	1526.41	41.95%	57.53%	-21.82	4-11
1984-09-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-23	1495.37	1503.52	56.40%	43.08%	+5.44	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-28	1500.81	1605.73	28.30%	71.18%	-16.39	1-1
1984-09-16	Chicago Bears	L 7-9	1484.42	1533.82	50.51%	48.97%	-9.00	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-20	1475.42	1550.61	31.90%	67.58%	-15.07	1-3
1984-09-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-30	1460.35	1406.84	49.56%	49.92%	-10.83	1-4
1984-10-07	San Diego Chargers	L 28-34	1449.52	1514.22	48.31%	51.17%	-14.91	1-5
1984-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1434.61	1550.68	27.02%	72.46%	-5.92	1-6
1984-10-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-30	1428.69	1571.91	37.29%	62.19%	-11.53	1-7
1984-10-28	Detroit Lions	W 41-9	1417.16	1482.24	48.25%	51.23%	+36.53	2-7
1984-11-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-13	1453.69	1453.62	41.94%	57.54%	+22.92	3-7
1984-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-17	1476.61	1416.25	65.70%	33.78%	+22.57	4-7
1984-11-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-6	1499.18	1565.83	48.03%	51.45%	+32.42	5-7
1984-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-31	1531.60	1429.88	56.46%	43.03%	-12.32	5-8
1984-12-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1519.28	1373.69	75.68%	23.80%	+10.85	6-8
1984-12-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-14	1530.13	1544.79	39.89%	59.59%	+18.39	7-8
1984-12-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 38-14	1548.52	1341.38	70.32%	29.16%	+18.04	8-8
1984-09-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-24	1409.37	1592.93	32.04%	67.44%	-12.79	0-1
1984-09-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-35	1396.58	1412.43	55.31%	44.17%	-26.08	0-2
1984-09-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1370.50	1497.56	25.79%	73.69%	-13.44	0-3
1984-09-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-42	1357.06	1481.70	26.06%	73.42%	-18.62	0-4
1984-09-30	New Orleans Saints	L 10-27	1338.44	1478.46	37.72%	61.76%	-19.63	0-5
1984-10-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-13	1318.81	1425.26	28.12%	71.36%	-11.24	0-6
1984-10-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-28	1307.57	1681.90	7.73%	91.76%	-4.15	0-7
1984-10-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-34	1303.42	1629.22	17.21%	82.27%	-7.85	0-8
1984-10-28	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-31	1295.57	1436.17	37.65%	61.84%	-20.16	0-9
1984-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-35	1275.41	1530.73	14.24%	85.24%	-9.53	0-10
1984-11-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1265.88	1485.67	16.93%	82.55%	+10.40	1-10
1984-11-18	New York Jets	W 31-20	1276.28	1500.93	27.12%	72.36%	+30.22	2-10
1984-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-27	1306.50	1432.37	25.92%	73.56%	-13.50	2-11
1984-12-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1293.00	1545.88	24.03%	75.45%	+16.46	3-11
1984-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-27	1309.46	1551.10	15.23%	84.25%	-6.40	3-12
1984-12-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-27	1303.06	1427.37	39.87%	59.61%	-13.31	3-13
1984-09-02	New York Jets	L 14-23	1430.18	1504.51	46.93%	52.56%	-17.75	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Houston Oilers	W 35-21	1412.43	1396.58	44.17%	55.31%	+26.08	1-1
1984-09-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 33-34	1438.51	1523.04	45.47%	54.02%	-5.74	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-44	1432.77	1629.95	18.84%	80.64%	-14.49	1-3
1984-09-30	Buffalo Bills	W 31-17	1418.28	1414.99	58.01%	41.47%	+19.58	2-3
1984-10-07	Washington Redskins	L 7-35	1437.86	1612.36	33.19%	66.30%	-22.17	2-4
1984-10-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-16	1415.69	1443.66	38.07%	61.41%	-14.42	2-5
1984-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-16	1401.27	1516.65	41.11%	58.37%	+7.35	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-22	1408.62	1544.56	24.82%	74.66%	-13.67	3-6
1984-11-04	San Diego Chargers	L 10-38	1394.95	1464.59	47.60%	51.88%	-31.76	3-7
1984-11-11	@ New York Jets	W 9-5	1363.19	1520.29	22.62%	76.86%	+19.36	4-7
1984-11-18	New England Patriots	L 17-50	1382.55	1530.68	36.63%	62.85%	-26.56	4-8
1984-11-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-21	1355.99	1619.61	13.67%	85.81%	-6.47	4-9
1984-12-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 15-21	1349.52	1339.28	43.38%	56.11%	-13.40	4-10
1984-12-09	Miami Dolphins	L 17-35	1336.12	1684.06	15.47%	84.01%	-8.31	4-11
1984-12-16	@ New England Patriots	L 10-16	1327.81	1490.63	22.05%	77.43%	-6.82	4-12
1984-09-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-27	1498.17	1515.33	39.55%	59.93%	+23.87	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-22	1522.04	1505.38	44.29%	55.20%	+15.55	2-0
1984-09-16	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-22	1537.59	1622.11	45.47%	54.01%	-8.10	2-1
1984-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-21	1529.49	1478.04	49.27%	50.22%	-28.46	2-2
1984-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-6	1501.03	1455.94	63.70%	35.78%	+9.03	3-2
1984-10-07	New York Jets	L 16-17	1510.06	1512.40	57.22%	42.26%	-7.21	3-3
1984-10-14	San Diego Chargers	W 31-13	1502.85	1529.13	53.83%	45.66%	+24.43	4-3
1984-10-21	@ New York Jets	L 7-28	1527.28	1531.29	41.37%	58.11%	-23.92	4-4
1984-10-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-20	1503.36	1382.71	72.98%	26.50%	+6.70	5-4
1984-11-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-45	1510.06	1610.93	28.78%	70.70%	-24.39	5-5
1984-11-11	Houston Oilers	L 16-17	1485.67	1265.88	82.55%	16.93%	-10.40	5-6
1984-11-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-17	1475.27	1609.63	24.99%	74.49%	-9.99	5-7
1984-11-25	@ New York Giants	L 27-28	1465.28	1525.38	33.82%	65.66%	-4.27	5-8
1984-12-02	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1461.01	1612.05	36.25%	63.24%	+13.80	6-8
1984-12-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1474.81	1682.73	29.07%	70.42%	+46.08	7-8
1984-12-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 42-21	1520.89	1500.98	44.75%	54.74%	+31.60	8-8
1984-09-02	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-14	1592.93	1409.37	67.44%	32.04%	+12.80	1-0
1984-09-09	Green Bay Packers	W 28-7	1605.73	1500.81	71.18%	28.30%	+16.38	2-0
1984-09-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-20	1622.11	1537.59	54.01%	45.47%	+8.11	3-0
1984-09-24	San Diego Chargers	W 33-30	1630.22	1511.00	72.82%	26.66%	+5.84	4-0
1984-09-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1636.06	1506.50	60.33%	39.15%	-13.17	4-1
1984-10-07	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-14	1622.89	1585.07	62.74%	36.74%	+17.36	5-1
1984-10-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1640.25	1431.59	81.63%	17.85%	+3.91	6-1
1984-10-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 44-37	1644.16	1504.71	61.68%	37.80%	+12.62	7-1
1984-10-28	Denver Broncos	L 19-22	1656.78	1578.48	67.97%	31.51%	-14.83	7-2
1984-11-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-17	1641.95	1538.69	56.67%	42.81%	-23.68	7-3
1984-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-17	1618.27	1635.32	39.57%	59.92%	-8.64	7-4
1984-11-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-7	1609.63	1475.27	74.49%	24.99%	+9.98	8-4
1984-11-25	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-7	1619.61	1355.99	85.81%	13.67%	+6.48	9-4
1984-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 45-34	1626.09	1712.89	30.47%	69.02%	+28.82	10-4
1984-12-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-3	1654.91	1432.91	72.06%	27.42%	+15.88	11-4
1984-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1670.79	1535.86	74.55%	24.93%	-23.00	11-5
1984-09-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-20	1501.47	1557.37	49.57%	49.91%	-16.53	0-1
1984-09-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1484.94	1465.59	60.23%	39.25%	+8.58	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1493.52	1510.52	39.57%	59.91%	-15.79	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1477.73	1467.22	43.41%	56.07%	+22.34	2-2
1984-09-30	New York Giants	W 33-12	1500.07	1490.64	58.86%	40.62%	+23.48	3-2
1984-10-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1523.55	1490.02	62.16%	37.32%	-11.07	3-3
1984-10-14	@ New Orleans Saints	W 28-10	1512.48	1478.83	46.71%	52.77%	+28.21	4-3
1984-10-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1540.69	1472.77	51.64%	47.85%	+22.57	5-3
1984-10-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-33	1563.26	1637.07	47.00%	52.48%	-34.04	5-4
1984-11-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-13	1529.22	1581.11	34.88%	64.60%	+14.09	6-4
1984-11-11	Chicago Bears	W 29-13	1543.31	1562.37	54.85%	44.63%	+22.52	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-31	1565.83	1499.18	51.45%	48.03%	-32.43	7-5
1984-11-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-33	1533.40	1378.20	63.79%	35.69%	+4.51	8-5
1984-12-02	New Orleans Saints	W 34-21	1537.91	1438.52	70.53%	28.95%	+13.19	9-5
1984-12-09	Houston Oilers	W 27-16	1551.10	1309.46	84.25%	15.23%	+6.39	10-5
1984-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-19	1557.49	1729.96	21.11%	78.37%	-4.63	10-6
1984-09-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-17	1572.07	1603.74	37.57%	61.91%	+33.08	1-0
1984-09-09	New England Patriots	W 28-7	1605.15	1508.59	70.19%	29.29%	+16.96	2-0
1984-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1622.11	1430.47	68.45%	31.04%	+7.84	3-0
1984-09-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 44-7	1629.95	1432.77	80.64%	18.84%	+14.49	4-0
1984-09-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 36-28	1644.44	1508.02	61.27%	38.21%	+13.64	5-0
1984-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-7	1658.08	1523.96	60.96%	38.53%	+23.82	6-0
1984-10-14	Houston Oilers	W 28-10	1681.90	1307.57	91.76%	7.73%	+4.15	7-0
1984-10-21	@ New England Patriots	W 44-24	1686.05	1529.19	64.01%	35.48%	+20.02	8-0
1984-10-28	Buffalo Bills	W 38-7	1706.07	1347.92	91.07%	8.42%	+5.94	9-0
1984-11-04	@ New York Jets	W 31-17	1712.01	1535.87	66.50%	32.98%	+15.58	10-0
1984-11-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1727.59	1453.08	86.54%	12.95%	+1.63	11-0
1984-11-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-34	1729.22	1487.14	74.30%	25.18%	-22.92	11-1
1984-11-26	New York Jets	W 28-17	1706.30	1470.71	83.80%	15.69%	+6.59	12-1
1984-12-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 34-45	1712.89	1626.09	69.02%	30.47%	-28.83	12-2
1984-12-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 35-17	1684.06	1336.12	84.01%	15.47%	+8.30	13-2
1984-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-21	1692.36	1546.05	75.76%	23.73%	+7.94	14-2
1984-09-02	San Diego Chargers	L 13-42	1478.97	1475.76	58.00%	41.49%	-39.35	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-19	1439.62	1453.06	40.06%	59.42%	-7.15	0-2
1984-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1432.47	1498.84	48.07%	51.41%	+17.15	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-28	1449.62	1509.89	33.79%	65.69%	+8.27	2-2
1984-09-30	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-20	1457.89	1570.25	41.53%	57.95%	-14.82	2-3
1984-10-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-35	1443.07	1417.66	45.53%	53.95%	-11.48	2-4
1984-10-14	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-23	1431.59	1640.25	17.85%	81.63%	-3.91	2-5
1984-10-21	Detroit Lions	L 14-16	1427.68	1473.13	51.08%	48.41%	-9.11	2-6
1984-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-16	1418.57	1528.17	27.76%	71.72%	-10.52	2-7
1984-11-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1408.05	1376.01	61.96%	37.52%	+8.20	3-7
1984-11-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-45	1416.25	1476.61	33.78%	65.70%	-22.57	3-8
1984-11-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-42	1393.68	1613.61	16.92%	82.56%	-9.80	3-9
1984-11-25	Chicago Bears	L 3-34	1383.88	1544.92	34.93%	64.56%	-24.55	3-10
1984-11-29	Washington Redskins	L 17-31	1359.33	1609.50	24.32%	75.17%	-11.50	3-11
1984-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-51	1347.83	1723.52	7.67%	91.81%	-6.45	3-12
1984-12-16	Green Bay Packers	L 14-38	1341.38	1548.52	29.16%	70.32%	-18.04	3-13
1984-09-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1495.01	1469.00	45.62%	53.86%	+13.58	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-28	1508.59	1605.15	29.29%	70.19%	-16.96	1-1
1984-09-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-23	1491.63	1567.41	46.72%	52.76%	+25.76	2-1
1984-09-23	Washington Redskins	L 10-26	1517.39	1575.18	49.30%	50.18%	-24.86	2-2
1984-09-30	@ New York Jets	W 28-21	1492.53	1533.45	36.33%	63.15%	+21.04	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-16	1513.57	1446.91	51.46%	48.03%	+6.06	4-2
1984-10-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1519.63	1436.50	68.57%	30.92%	+9.56	5-2
1984-10-21	Miami Dolphins	L 24-44	1529.19	1686.05	35.48%	64.01%	-20.03	5-3
1984-10-28	New York Jets	W 30-20	1509.16	1555.21	50.99%	48.49%	+19.33	6-3
1984-11-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-26	1528.49	1593.30	33.21%	66.27%	-11.09	6-4
1984-11-11	Buffalo Bills	W 38-10	1517.40	1331.55	79.63%	19.86%	+13.28	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 50-17	1530.68	1382.55	62.85%	36.63%	+26.57	8-4
1984-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1557.25	1519.79	47.26%	52.23%	-10.32	8-5
1984-12-02	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-33	1546.93	1535.90	59.09%	40.40%	-35.70	8-6
1984-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1511.23	1442.89	51.70%	47.78%	-20.60	8-7
1984-12-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-10	1490.63	1327.81	77.43%	22.05%	+6.83	9-7
1984-09-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-36	1479.41	1491.46	55.85%	43.63%	-19.90	0-1
1984-09-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-13	1459.51	1407.70	64.59%	34.89%	+8.81	1-1
1984-09-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-30	1468.32	1588.39	26.57%	72.91%	-10.62	1-2
1984-09-23	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-24	1457.70	1528.78	47.39%	52.09%	+20.76	2-2
1984-09-30	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-10	1478.46	1338.44	61.76%	37.72%	+19.63	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1498.09	1495.23	42.34%	57.15%	-19.26	3-3
1984-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-28	1478.83	1512.48	52.77%	46.71%	-28.21	3-4
1984-10-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-30	1450.62	1537.91	30.41%	69.07%	-6.65	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-14	1443.97	1419.95	45.33%	54.15%	+9.65	4-5
1984-11-04	Green Bay Packers	L 13-23	1453.62	1453.69	57.54%	41.94%	-22.92	4-6
1984-11-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1430.70	1419.10	43.57%	55.91%	+14.08	5-6
1984-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1444.78	1530.52	45.29%	54.19%	+11.83	6-6
1984-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-35	1456.61	1697.56	25.31%	74.17%	-18.09	6-7
1984-12-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-34	1438.52	1537.91	28.95%	70.53%	-13.19	6-8
1984-12-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-24	1425.33	1473.74	50.65%	48.83%	-11.06	6-9
1984-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 10-3	1414.27	1533.38	26.68%	72.81%	+24.26	7-9
1984-09-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-27	1462.62	1458.28	58.16%	41.33%	+5.22	1-0
1984-09-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-7	1467.84	1573.90	42.41%	57.07%	+32.94	2-0
1984-09-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-30	1500.78	1557.91	34.20%	65.28%	-17.27	2-1
1984-09-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1483.51	1413.97	66.87%	32.61%	+7.13	3-1
1984-09-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-33	1490.64	1500.07	40.62%	58.86%	-23.48	3-2
1984-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-31	1467.16	1625.31	35.31%	64.18%	-20.43	3-3
1984-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-7	1446.73	1501.10	34.56%	64.92%	+28.33	4-3
1984-10-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-24	1475.06	1458.07	44.33%	55.15%	-20.92	4-4
1984-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 37-13	1454.14	1642.08	31.49%	67.99%	+41.94	5-4
1984-11-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-7	1496.08	1558.24	33.55%	65.93%	+28.77	6-4
1984-11-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1524.85	1367.81	64.03%	35.45%	-13.97	6-5
1984-11-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-10	1510.88	1546.12	52.54%	46.94%	+14.50	7-5
1984-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-27	1525.38	1465.28	65.66%	33.82%	+4.27	8-5
1984-12-02	@ New York Jets	W 20-10	1529.65	1464.13	51.29%	48.19%	+19.21	9-5
1984-12-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-31	1548.86	1571.59	38.79%	60.70%	-15.48	9-6
1984-12-15	New Orleans Saints	L 3-10	1533.38	1414.27	72.81%	26.68%	-24.26	9-7
1984-09-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-14	1504.51	1430.18	52.56%	46.93%	+17.75	1-0
1984-09-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1522.26	1491.45	61.79%	37.69%	-19.06	1-1
1984-09-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 43-23	1503.20	1489.83	59.41%	40.07%	+22.61	2-1
1984-09-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-26	1525.81	1422.63	56.66%	42.82%	+7.64	3-1
1984-09-30	New England Patriots	L 21-28	1533.45	1492.53	63.15%	36.33%	-21.05	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1512.40	1510.06	42.26%	57.22%	+7.21	4-2
1984-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-20	1519.61	1440.85	53.19%	46.29%	+11.68	5-2
1984-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-7	1531.29	1527.28	58.11%	41.37%	+23.92	6-2
1984-10-28	@ New England Patriots	L 20-30	1555.21	1509.16	48.49%	50.99%	-19.34	6-3
1984-11-04	Miami Dolphins	L 17-31	1535.87	1712.01	32.98%	66.50%	-15.58	6-4
1984-11-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 5-9	1520.29	1363.19	76.86%	22.62%	-19.36	6-5
1984-11-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-31	1500.93	1276.28	72.36%	27.12%	-30.22	6-6
1984-11-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-28	1470.71	1706.30	15.69%	83.80%	-6.58	6-7
1984-12-02	New York Giants	L 10-20	1464.13	1529.65	48.19%	51.29%	-19.22	6-8
1984-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1444.91	1352.68	69.67%	29.81%	+7.53	7-8
1984-12-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-41	1452.44	1383.65	51.76%	47.72%	-29.17	7-9
1984-09-02	@ New York Giants	L 27-28	1458.28	1462.62	41.33%	58.16%	-5.22	0-1
1984-09-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-17	1453.06	1439.62	59.42%	40.06%	+7.15	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-23	1460.21	1540.96	31.21%	68.27%	-9.65	1-2
1984-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 9-21	1450.56	1599.00	36.59%	62.89%	-16.00	1-3
1984-09-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1434.56	1600.04	21.79%	77.70%	-12.32	1-4
1984-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-17	1422.24	1395.41	45.73%	53.75%	+21.42	2-4
1984-10-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-7	1443.66	1415.69	61.41%	38.07%	+14.41	3-4
1984-10-21	New York Giants	W 24-10	1458.07	1475.06	55.15%	44.33%	+20.92	4-4
1984-10-28	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-34	1478.99	1554.76	46.72%	52.76%	-26.34	4-5
1984-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	T 23-23	1452.65	1445.72	42.91%	56.57%	+0.43	4-5
1984-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-24	1453.08	1727.59	12.95%	86.54%	-1.64	4-6
1984-11-18	Washington Redskins	W 16-10	1451.44	1620.16	33.93%	65.55%	+20.22	5-6
1984-11-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-17	1471.66	1531.62	33.84%	65.65%	-4.27	5-7
1984-12-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-26	1467.39	1530.11	48.59%	50.89%	-24.50	5-8
1984-12-09	New England Patriots	W 27-17	1442.89	1511.23	47.78%	51.70%	+20.60	6-8
1984-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-26	1463.49	1328.12	61.13%	38.36%	-30.80	6-9
1984-09-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-37	1515.33	1498.17	59.93%	39.55%	-23.88	0-1
1984-09-06	@ New York Jets	W 23-17	1491.45	1522.26	37.69%	61.79%	+19.07	1-1
1984-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1510.52	1493.52	59.91%	39.57%	+15.79	2-1
1984-09-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-20	1526.31	1433.98	55.13%	44.36%	-21.96	2-2
1984-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-17	1504.35	1444.88	65.58%	33.90%	+19.61	3-2
1984-10-07	Miami Dolphins	L 7-31	1523.96	1658.08	38.53%	60.96%	-23.82	3-3
1984-10-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1500.14	1645.73	23.80%	75.68%	+16.51	4-3
1984-10-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-17	1516.65	1401.27	58.37%	41.11%	-7.35	4-4
1984-10-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-10	1509.30	1450.20	65.54%	33.95%	+21.43	5-4
1984-11-04	Houston Oilers	W 35-7	1530.73	1275.41	85.24%	14.24%	+9.53	6-4
1984-11-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-22	1540.26	1450.95	54.70%	44.79%	-9.74	6-5
1984-11-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1530.52	1444.78	54.19%	45.29%	-11.83	6-6
1984-11-25	San Diego Chargers	W 52-24	1518.69	1510.06	58.75%	40.73%	+27.19	7-6
1984-12-02	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-23	1545.88	1293.00	75.45%	24.03%	-16.46	7-7
1984-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-20	1529.42	1433.80	70.08%	29.40%	+6.44	8-7
1984-12-16	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 13-7	1535.86	1670.79	24.93%	74.55%	+23.00	9-7
1984-09-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-13	1475.76	1478.97	41.49%	58.00%	+39.35	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-31	1515.11	1549.86	37.16%	62.33%	-17.55	1-1
1984-09-16	Houston Oilers	W 31-14	1497.56	1370.50	73.69%	25.79%	+13.44	2-1
1984-09-24	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 30-33	1511.00	1630.22	26.66%	72.82%	-5.84	2-2
1984-09-30	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1505.16	1501.62	58.04%	41.44%	+9.06	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-28	1514.22	1449.52	51.17%	48.31%	+14.91	4-2
1984-10-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-31	1529.13	1502.85	45.66%	53.83%	-24.42	4-3
1984-10-21	Los Angeles Raiders	L 37-44	1504.71	1644.16	37.80%	61.68%	-12.63	4-4
1984-10-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-24	1492.08	1583.44	44.49%	54.99%	-27.49	4-5
1984-11-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-10	1464.59	1394.95	51.88%	47.60%	+31.76	5-5
1984-11-11	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1496.35	1604.40	42.13%	57.35%	-9.21	5-6
1984-11-18	Miami Dolphins	W 34-28	1487.14	1729.22	25.18%	74.30%	+22.92	6-6
1984-11-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-52	1510.06	1518.69	40.73%	58.75%	-27.19	6-7
1984-12-03	Chicago Bears	W 20-7	1482.87	1569.47	45.17%	54.31%	+24.67	7-7
1984-12-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1507.54	1598.25	29.99%	69.49%	-6.56	7-8
1984-12-16	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-42	1500.98	1520.89	54.74%	44.75%	-31.60	7-9
1984-09-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-27	1564.34	1523.75	47.71%	51.78%	+11.30	1-0
1984-09-10	Washington Redskins	W 37-31	1575.64	1570.65	58.25%	41.24%	+12.75	2-0
1984-09-16	New Orleans Saints	W 30-20	1588.39	1468.32	72.91%	26.57%	+10.61	3-0
1984-09-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-9	1599.00	1450.56	62.89%	36.59%	+16.00	4-0
1984-09-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-5	1615.00	1500.33	72.30%	27.18%	+10.31	5-0
1984-10-08	@ New York Giants	W 31-10	1625.31	1467.16	64.18%	35.31%	+20.42	6-0
1984-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1645.73	1500.14	75.68%	23.80%	-16.51	6-1
1984-10-21	@ Houston Oilers	W 34-21	1629.22	1303.42	82.27%	17.21%	+7.85	7-1
1984-10-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 33-0	1637.07	1563.26	52.48%	47.00%	+34.04	8-1
1984-11-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-17	1671.11	1456.32	82.15%	17.34%	+5.38	9-1
1984-11-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-7	1676.49	1420.73	75.75%	23.73%	+17.49	10-1
1984-11-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-17	1693.98	1381.78	88.79%	10.69%	+3.58	11-1
1984-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-3	1697.56	1456.61	74.17%	25.31%	+18.09	12-1
1984-12-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 35-17	1715.65	1356.81	84.82%	14.67%	+7.87	13-1
1984-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 51-7	1723.52	1347.83	91.81%	7.67%	+6.44	14-1
1984-12-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-16	1729.96	1557.49	78.37%	21.11%	+4.62	15-1
1984-09-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-0	1522.39	1493.06	61.59%	37.89%	+27.47	1-0
1984-09-09	San Diego Chargers	W 31-17	1549.86	1515.11	62.33%	37.16%	+17.55	2-0
1984-09-16	@ New England Patriots	L 23-38	1567.41	1491.63	52.76%	46.72%	-25.76	2-1
1984-09-23	Chicago Bears	W 38-9	1541.65	1542.82	57.38%	42.10%	+28.60	3-1
1984-09-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-12	1570.25	1457.89	57.95%	41.53%	+14.82	4-1
1984-10-07	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-28	1585.07	1622.89	36.74%	62.74%	-17.35	4-2
1984-10-14	Buffalo Bills	W 31-28	1567.72	1373.99	80.34%	19.14%	+4.19	5-2
1984-10-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-24	1571.91	1428.69	62.19%	37.29%	+11.53	6-2
1984-10-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-0	1583.44	1492.08	54.99%	44.49%	+27.49	7-2
1984-11-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-0	1610.93	1510.06	70.70%	28.78%	+24.39	8-2
1984-11-12	Los Angeles Raiders	W 17-14	1635.32	1618.27	59.92%	39.57%	+8.65	9-2
1984-11-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-6	1643.97	1460.70	67.41%	32.08%	+18.11	10-2
1984-11-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-24	1662.08	1623.41	47.43%	52.05%	+11.37	11-2
1984-12-02	Detroit Lions	W 38-17	1673.45	1442.20	83.46%	16.02%	+9.28	12-2
1984-12-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-34	1682.73	1474.81	70.42%	29.07%	-46.08	12-3
1984-12-15	Denver Broncos	L 14-31	1636.65	1604.82	61.93%	37.55%	-32.16	12-4
1984-09-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-24	1503.52	1495.37	43.08%	56.40%	-5.43	0-1
1984-09-09	Buffalo Bills	W 37-7	1498.09	1455.42	63.38%	36.10%	+24.95	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-33	1523.04	1438.51	54.02%	45.47%	+5.74	2-1
1984-09-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-34	1528.78	1457.70	52.09%	47.39%	-20.76	2-2
1984-09-30	Miami Dolphins	L 28-36	1508.02	1644.44	38.21%	61.27%	-13.64	2-3
1984-10-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-20	1494.38	1584.67	30.04%	69.44%	+29.00	3-3
1984-10-14	Chicago Bears	W 38-21	1523.38	1514.49	58.79%	40.69%	+21.17	4-3
1984-10-21	Washington Redskins	W 26-24	1544.55	1652.29	42.18%	57.30%	+10.21	5-3
1984-10-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-14	1554.76	1478.99	52.76%	46.72%	+26.35	6-3
1984-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-16	1581.11	1529.22	64.60%	34.88%	-14.09	6-4
1984-11-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1567.02	1529.47	62.70%	36.78%	-20.90	6-5
1984-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 10-16	1546.12	1510.88	46.94%	52.54%	-14.50	6-6
1984-11-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-16	1531.62	1471.66	65.65%	33.84%	+4.28	7-6
1984-12-02	@ New England Patriots	W 33-10	1535.90	1546.93	40.40%	59.09%	+35.69	8-6
1984-12-09	New York Giants	W 31-21	1571.59	1548.86	60.70%	38.79%	+15.48	9-6
1984-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 27-29	1587.07	1629.56	36.12%	63.36%	-6.45	9-7
1984-09-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-34	1426.55	1490.10	33.37%	66.11%	-18.85	0-1
1984-09-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-17	1407.70	1459.51	34.89%	64.59%	-8.81	0-2
1984-09-16	Detroit Lions	W 21-17	1398.89	1524.97	39.63%	59.86%	+15.08	1-2
1984-09-23	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1413.97	1483.51	32.61%	66.87%	-7.13	1-3
1984-09-30	Green Bay Packers	W 30-27	1406.84	1460.35	49.92%	49.56%	+10.82	2-3
1984-10-07	Minnesota Vikings	W 35-31	1417.66	1443.07	53.95%	45.53%	+11.48	3-3
1984-10-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1429.14	1461.55	37.47%	62.01%	-11.58	3-4
1984-10-21	Chicago Bears	L 9-44	1417.56	1493.32	46.72%	52.76%	-34.85	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-24	1382.71	1503.36	26.50%	72.98%	-6.70	3-6
1984-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1376.01	1408.05	37.52%	61.96%	-8.20	3-7
1984-11-11	New York Giants	W 20-17	1367.81	1524.85	35.45%	64.03%	+13.97	4-7
1984-11-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-24	1381.78	1693.98	10.69%	88.79%	-3.58	4-8
1984-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 33-34	1378.20	1533.40	35.69%	63.79%	-4.51	4-9
1984-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1373.69	1519.28	23.80%	75.68%	-10.85	4-10
1984-12-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-6	1362.84	1348.93	59.48%	40.00%	+20.81	5-10
1984-12-16	New York Jets	W 41-21	1383.65	1452.44	47.72%	51.76%	+29.18	6-10
1984-09-02	Miami Dolphins	L 17-35	1603.74	1572.07	61.91%	37.57%	-33.09	0-1
1984-09-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-37	1570.65	1575.64	41.24%	58.25%	-12.74	0-2
1984-09-16	New York Giants	W 30-14	1557.91	1500.78	65.28%	34.20%	+17.27	1-2
1984-09-23	@ New England Patriots	W 26-10	1575.18	1517.39	50.18%	49.30%	+24.86	2-2
1984-09-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-0	1600.04	1434.56	77.70%	21.79%	+12.32	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 35-7	1612.36	1437.86	66.30%	33.19%	+22.17	4-2
1984-10-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-14	1634.53	1555.67	68.04%	31.44%	+17.76	5-2
1984-10-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-26	1652.29	1544.55	57.30%	42.18%	-10.21	5-3
1984-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 13-37	1642.08	1454.14	67.99%	31.49%	-41.94	5-4
1984-11-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-14	1600.14	1428.77	78.27%	21.22%	+9.67	6-4
1984-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 28-14	1609.81	1445.29	77.60%	21.88%	+10.35	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-16	1620.16	1451.44	65.55%	33.93%	-20.23	7-5
1984-11-25	Buffalo Bills	W 41-14	1599.93	1348.84	84.94%	14.54%	+9.57	8-5
1984-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-17	1609.50	1359.33	75.17%	24.32%	+11.49	9-5
1984-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-28	1620.99	1554.62	51.42%	48.07%	+8.57	10-5
1984-12-16	St. Louis Cardinals	W 29-27	1629.56	1587.07	63.36%	36.12%	+6.45	11-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1984-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-19	1548.23	1636.01	30.57%	69.43%	+17.41	1-0
1985-01-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-23	1565.64	1741.97	20.91%	79.09%	-12.58	1-1
1984-12-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1636.98	1558.86	68.24%	31.76%	-22.64	0-1
1984-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-13	1647.79	1604.49	48.35%	51.65%	-14.85	0-1
1984-12-23	New York Giants	L 13-16	1552.86	1509.12	63.81%	36.19%	-13.85	0-1
1984-12-29	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-10	1700.30	1619.34	68.59%	31.41%	+18.04	1-0
1985-01-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-28	1718.34	1581.50	75.08%	24.92%	+12.89	2-0
1985-01-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-38	1731.23	1754.54	46.65%	53.35%	-27.44	2-1
1984-12-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-13	1509.12	1552.86	36.19%	63.81%	+13.86	1-0
1984-12-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-21	1522.98	1734.58	17.75%	82.25%	-7.38	1-1
1984-12-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-17	1558.86	1636.98	31.76%	68.24%	+22.64	1-0
1985-01-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-45	1581.50	1718.34	24.92%	75.08%	-12.89	1-1
1984-12-29	New York Giants	W 21-10	1734.58	1522.98	82.25%	17.75%	+7.39	1-0
1985-01-06	Chicago Bears	W 23-0	1741.97	1565.64	79.09%	20.91%	+12.57	2-0
1985-01-20	Miami Dolphins	W 38-16	1754.54	1731.23	53.35%	46.65%	+27.44	3-0
1984-12-22	Los Angeles Raiders	W 13-7	1604.49	1647.79	51.65%	48.35%	+14.85	1-0
1984-12-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-31	1619.34	1700.30	31.41%	68.59%	-18.05	1-1
1984-12-30	Chicago Bears	L 19-23	1636.01	1548.23	69.43%	30.57%	-17.41	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1984-11-11	16.93%	Houston Oilers	1265.88	17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1485.67	16
2	1984-11-11	22.62%	Indianapolis Colts	1363.19	9	@ New York Jets	1520.29	5
3	1984-10-14	23.80%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1500.14	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1645.73	17
4	1984-12-02	24.03%	@ Houston Oilers	1293.00	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1545.88	20
5	1984-12-16	24.93%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1535.86	13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1670.79	7
6	1984-11-18	25.18%	@ San Diego Chargers	1487.14	34	Miami Dolphins	1729.22	28
7	1984-11-18	26.28%	@ Buffalo Bills	1318.26	14	Dallas Cowboys	1550.37	3
8	1984-12-15	26.68%	New Orleans Saints	1414.27	10	@ New York Giants	1533.38	3
9	1984-11-18	27.12%	@ Houston Oilers	1276.28	31	New York Jets	1500.93	20
10	1984-12-09	29.07%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1474.81	34	Seattle Seahawks	1682.73	7
11	1984-10-07	30.04%	St. Louis Cardinals	1494.38	31	@ Dallas Cowboys	1584.67	20
12	1984-12-02	30.47%	Los Angeles Raiders	1626.09	45	@ Miami Dolphins	1712.89	34
13	1984-12-30 *	30.57%	Chicago Bears	1548.23	23	@ Washington Redskins	1636.01	19
14	1984-10-28	31.49%	@ New York Giants	1454.14	37	Washington Redskins	1642.08	13
15	1984-10-28	31.51%	Denver Broncos	1578.48	22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1656.78	19
16	1984-12-30 *	31.76%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1558.86	24	@ Denver Broncos	1636.98	17
17	1984-11-04	33.55%	New York Giants	1496.08	19	@ Dallas Cowboys	1558.24	7
18	1984-09-23	33.79%	Minnesota Vikings	1449.62	29	@ Detroit Lions	1509.89	28
19	1984-11-18	33.93%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1451.44	16	Washington Redskins	1620.16	10
20	1984-10-14	34.56%	New York Giants	1446.73	19	@ Atlanta Falcons	1501.10	7
21	1984-11-04	34.88%	Los Angeles Rams	1529.22	16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1581.11	13
22	1984-11-11	35.45%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1367.81	20	New York Giants	1524.85	17
23	1984-12-23 *	36.19%	New York Giants	1509.12	16	@ Los Angeles Rams	1552.86	13
24	1984-12-02	36.25%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1461.01	16	Denver Broncos	1612.05	13
25	1984-09-30	36.33%	New England Patriots	1492.53	28	@ New York Jets	1533.45	21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1984-12-09	46.08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	34	1474.81	29.07%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1682.73	70.42%
2	1984-10-28	41.94	@ New York Giants	37	1454.14	31.49%	Washington Redskins	13	1642.08	67.99%
3	1984-09-02	39.35	San Diego Chargers	42	1475.76	41.49%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1478.97	58.00%
4	1984-10-28	36.53	@ Green Bay Packers	41	1417.16	48.25%	Detroit Lions	9	1482.24	51.23%
5	1984-12-02	35.70	St. Louis Cardinals	33	1535.90	40.40%	@ New England Patriots	10	1546.93	59.09%
6	1984-10-21	34.85	Chicago Bears	44	1493.32	52.76%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	1417.56	46.72%
7	1984-10-28	34.04	San Francisco 49ers	33	1637.07	52.48%	@ Los Angeles Rams	0	1563.26	47.00%
8	1984-09-02	33.09	Miami Dolphins	35	1572.07	37.57%	@ Washington Redskins	17	1603.74	61.91%
9	1984-09-09	32.94	@ New York Giants	28	1467.84	42.41%	Dallas Cowboys	7	1573.90	57.07%
10	1984-11-18	32.43	@ Green Bay Packers	31	1499.18	48.03%	Los Angeles Rams	6	1565.83	51.45%
11	1984-12-15	32.16	Denver Broncos	31	1604.82	37.55%	@ Seattle Seahawks	14	1636.65	61.93%
12	1984-11-04	31.76	San Diego Chargers	38	1464.59	51.88%	@ Indianapolis Colts	10	1394.95	47.60%
13	1984-12-16	31.60	Kansas City Chiefs	42	1520.89	44.75%	@ San Diego Chargers	21	1500.98	54.74%
14	1984-10-07	31.01	Denver Broncos	28	1519.67	45.77%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1492.56	53.71%
15	1984-12-16	30.80	@ Atlanta Falcons	26	1328.12	38.36%	Philadelphia Eagles	10	1463.49	61.13%
16	1984-11-18	30.58	@ Buffalo Bills	14	1318.26	26.28%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1550.37	73.20%
17	1984-11-18	30.22	@ Houston Oilers	31	1276.28	27.12%	New York Jets	20	1500.93	72.36%
18	1984-12-16	29.18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	41	1383.65	47.72%	New York Jets	21	1452.44	51.76%
19	1984-11-18	29.13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	23	1403.24	41.69%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1405.01	57.80%
20	1984-10-07	29.00	St. Louis Cardinals	31	1494.38	30.04%	@ Dallas Cowboys	20	1584.67	69.44%
21	1984-12-02	28.83	Los Angeles Raiders	45	1626.09	30.47%	@ Miami Dolphins	34	1712.89	69.02%
22	1984-11-04	28.77	New York Giants	19	1496.08	33.55%	@ Dallas Cowboys	7	1558.24	65.93%
23	1984-09-23	28.60	@ Seattle Seahawks	38	1541.65	57.38%	Chicago Bears	9	1542.82	42.10%
24	1984-09-23	28.46	@ Denver Broncos	21	1478.04	50.22%	Kansas City Chiefs	0	1529.49	49.27%
25	1984-10-14	28.33	New York Giants	19	1446.73	34.56%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1501.10	64.92%