1983 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Los Angeles Raiders

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1980

Runner-Up

Washington Redskins

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1982

Biggest Overachiever

Washington Redskins

3.22 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.78 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4.38 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.38 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	6	.625	—	355	303	+52	10.03	-0.03
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	7	.562	1	356	342	+14	7.83	+1.17
3	Cincinnati Bengals	7	9	.438	3	346	302	+44	8.58	-1.58
4	Houston Oilers	2	14	.125	8	288	460	-172	5.20	-3.20

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	12	4	.750	—	389	250	+139	10.24	+1.76
2	New England Patriots	8	8	.500	4	274	289	-15	7.43	+0.57
3	Buffalo Bills	8	8	.500	4	283	351	-68	7.81	+0.19
4	Baltimore Colts	7	9	.438	5	264	354	-90	5.89	+1.11
5	New York Jets	7	9	.438	5	313	331	-18	8.96	-1.96

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	12	4	.750	—	442	338	+104	9.67	+2.33
2	Denver Broncos Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	302	327	-25	7.68	+1.32
3	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	403	397	+6	7.22	+1.78
4	San Diego Chargers	6	10	.375	6	358	462	-104	7.47	-1.47
5	Kansas City Chiefs	6	10	.375	6	386	367	+19	7.71	-1.71

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	9	7	.562	—	347	286	+61	8.51	+0.49
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	1	429	439	-10	8.64	-0.64
3	Chicago Bears	8	8	.500	1	311	301	+10	7.48	+0.52
4	Minnesota Vikings	8	8	.500	1	316	348	-32	7.95	+0.05
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	14	.125	7	241	380	-139	6.38	-4.38

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	14	2	0	.875	—	541	332	+209	10.78	+3.22
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	12	4	0	.750	2	479	360	+119	10.47	+1.53
3	St. Louis Cardinals	8	7	1	.531	5.5	374	428	-54	6.10	+2.40
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	11	0	.312	9	233	322	-89	7.72	-2.72
5	New York Giants	3	12	1	.219	10.5	267	347	-80	6.68	-3.18

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	6	.625	—	432	293	+139	9.51	+0.49
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	361	344	+17	7.55	+1.45
3	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	2	319	337	-18	7.43	+0.57
4	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	3	370	389	-19	7.08	-0.08

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 31

Denver Broncos 7

Dec 24

Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks 27

Miami Dolphins 20

Dec 31

Los Angeles Raiders 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 10

Jan 1

Conference Championship

Los Angeles Raiders 30

Seattle Seahawks 14

Jan 8

NFC

Wild Card Round

Los Angeles Rams 24

Dallas Cowboys 17

Dec 26

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 24

Detroit Lions 23

Dec 31

Washington Redskins 51

Los Angeles Rams 7

Jan 1

Conference Championship

Washington Redskins 24

San Francisco 49ers 21

Jan 8

Super Bowl

Los Angeles Raiders 38

Washington Redskins 9

Jan 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1718	14	10.78	+3.22	98.83%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1646	12	10.24	+1.76	89.41%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1629	12	10.47	+1.53	86.44%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1613	12	9.67	+2.33	93.67%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1607	10	9.51	+0.49	70.12%	3	6	8	9	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1547	10	10.03	-0.03	60.16%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1544	9	8.51	+0.49	70.68%	2	5	7	8	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1525	7	8.58	-1.58	29.44%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1519	9	7.22	+1.78	88.56%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1507	7	8.96	-1.96	22.71%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1507	8.5	6.10	+2.40	89.63%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1498	9	7.55	+1.45	84.25%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1496	6	7.71	-1.71	27.55%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1491	8	7.43	+0.57	71.52%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1491	8	8.64	-0.64	48.20%	2	5	7	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1487	9	7.83	+1.17	80.79%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1484	7	7.08	-0.08	59.95%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1481	8	7.48	+0.52	70.72%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1468	9	7.68	+1.32	82.51%	1	4	6	8	9	11	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1464	8	7.95	+0.05	62.01%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1464	8	7.43	+0.57	71.52%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1457	6	7.47	-1.47	32.12%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1450	8	7.81	+0.19	64.36%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1425	5	7.72	-2.72	12.65%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1424	3.5	6.68	-3.18	4.64%	1	4	5	7	8	10	15
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1386	7	5.89	+1.11	81.03%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1352	2	6.38	-4.38	1.76%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1319	2	5.20	-3.20	6.59%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Houston Oilers	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	4-0 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	4-0 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	—	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.01%	1.34%	1.79%	0.45%	0.22%	0.22%	6.03%
7–13	2.01%	3.12%	4.46%	3.57%	2.23%	0.89%	0.45%	16.74%
14–20	1.34%	4.46%	6.70%	5.13%	3.35%	2.23%	1.79%	25.00%
21–27	1.79%	3.57%	5.13%	7.59%	4.46%	1.79%	0.22%	24.55%
28–34	0.45%	2.23%	3.35%	4.46%	3.12%	0.89%	—	14.51%
35–41	0.22%	0.89%	2.23%	1.79%	0.89%	2.68%	0.45%	9.15%
42+	0.22%	0.45%	1.79%	0.22%	—	0.45%	0.89%	4.02%
Total	6.03%	16.74%	25.00%	24.55%	14.51%	9.15%	4.02%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.83	21.83	+0.00
SD	10.82	10.82	14.51
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.12	24.31	-1.19
SD	8.81	8.76	11.39
CV	0.38	0.36	—
Max	47	41	+17
Min	10	13	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	22.12	-5.62
SD	9.18	9.61	12.43
CV	0.56	0.43	—
Max	34	41	+10
Min	0	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	21.94	-4.25
SD	11.35	10.71	15.51
CV	0.64	0.49	—
Max	38	41	+23
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	56.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.44	18.81	+0.62
SD	6.81	11.14	11.59
CV	0.35	0.59	—
Max	31	38	+27
Min	7	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	18.88	+2.75
SD	12.97	8.34	16.48
CV	0.60	0.44	—
Max	55	38	+41
Min	6	9	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	21.38	+0.88
SD	9.28	12.53	15.73
CV	0.42	0.59	—
Max	41	44	+30
Min	6	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.94	22.50	+7.44
SD	8.70	9.63	15.28
CV	0.29	0.43	—
Max	41	42	+30
Min	10	7	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.88	20.44	-1.56
SD	8.25	11.05	14.11
CV	0.44	0.54	—
Max	38	48	+21
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.69	17.88	+3.81
SD	11.08	10.71	16.44
CV	0.51	0.60	—
Max	45	38	+42
Min	9	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.81	27.44	-0.62
SD	14.28	10.79	15.49
CV	0.53	0.39	—
Max	55	47	+41
Min	3	9	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	28.75	-10.75
SD	9.48	11.02	12.30
CV	0.53	0.38	—
Max	38	55	+10
Min	6	13	-41

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	—	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	22.94	+1.19
SD	13.56	12.05	13.71
CV	0.56	0.53	—
Max	48	51	+31
Min	6	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.62	21.12	+6.50
SD	7.17	11.62	11.19
CV	0.26	0.55	—
Max	42	38	+32
Min	20	6	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	37.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.56	21.50	+1.06
SD	9.93	11.39	12.87
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	41	45	+24
Min	7	6	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	6.25%	50.00%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.31	15.62	+8.69
SD	11.00	9.81	13.48
CV	0.45	0.63	—
Max	38	38	+37
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	37.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	62.50%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	21.75	-2.00
SD	7.59	10.93	11.55
CV	0.38	0.50	—
Max	34	48	+20
Min	2	13	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	18.75%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	—	31.25%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	18.06	-0.94
SD	10.67	11.58	16.98
CV	0.62	0.64	—
Max	37	34	+31
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	21.06	-1.12
SD	9.39	8.50	10.71
CV	0.47	0.40	—
Max	34	32	+17
Min	0	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.69	21.69	-5.00
SD	7.55	12.50	12.93
CV	0.45	0.58	—
Max	34	41	+24
Min	6	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.56	20.69	-1.12
SD	10.31	10.05	14.52
CV	0.53	0.49	—
Max	41	34	+24
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.56	20.12	-5.56
SD	7.43	8.38	10.91
CV	0.51	0.42	—
Max	28	37	+5
Min	0	7	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	18.94	+3.25
SD	10.95	10.35	17.25
CV	0.49	0.55	—
Max	44	45	+27
Min	3	3	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	28.88	-6.50
SD	11.24	10.90	14.71
CV	0.50	0.38	—
Max	41	44	+24
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.00	18.31	+8.69
SD	13.53	8.61	13.97
CV	0.50	0.47	—
Max	48	35	+31
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.19	24.81	+0.38
SD	10.39	12.01	11.10
CV	0.41	0.48	—
Max	51	48	+18
Min	10	6	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.38	26.75	-3.38
SD	11.46	12.23	18.53
CV	0.49	0.46	—
Max	44	45	+30
Min	7	6	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	23.75	-8.69
SD	9.66	10.95	12.19
CV	0.64	0.46	—
Max	33	55	+9
Min	0	11	-41

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	33.81	20.75	+13.06
SD	7.04	10.34	10.66
CV	0.21	0.50	—
Max	47	48	+38
Min	23	7	-1

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	14	10.78	+3.22
2	St. Louis Cardinals	8.5	6.10	+2.40
3	Los Angeles Raiders	12	9.67	+2.33
4	Seattle Seahawks	9	7.22	+1.78
5	Miami Dolphins	12	10.24	+1.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	6.38	-4.38
2	Houston Oilers	2	5.20	-3.20
3	New York Giants	3.5	6.68	-3.18
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	7.72	-2.72
5	New York Jets	7	8.96	-1.96

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	7	Sep 5 – Oct 16	1 in 24
2	Washington Redskins	9	Oct 23 – Dec 17	1 in 22
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	Oct 2 – Nov 13	1 in 20
4	Denver Broncos	4	Oct 9 – Oct 30	1 in 16
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	Sep 11 – Sep 25	1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	Sep 4 – Oct 30	1 in 173
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 129
3	Houston Oilers	10	Sep 4 – Nov 6	1 in 67
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 20 – Dec 4	1 in 25
5	Detroit Lions	4	Sep 11 – Oct 2	1 in 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	57.79%	27.34%	12.30%	2.57%
Cincinnati Bengals	25.25%	37.50%	28.81%	8.44%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	15.34%	29.28%	40.40%	14.98%
Houston Oilers	1.62%	5.88%	18.49%	74.01%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	53.53%	25.23%	13.14%	6.16%	1.94%
New York Jets	24.64%	32.04%	23.02%	14.05%	6.25%
Buffalo Bills	11.40%	21.07%	26.23%	24.92%	16.38%
New England Patriots	8.57%	15.94%	24.36%	29.74%	21.39%
Baltimore Colts	1.86%	5.72%	13.25%	25.13%	54.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Los Angeles Raiders	51.07%	23.19%	13.41%	8.35%	3.98%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.80%	20.95%	22.62%	21.95%	20.68%
Denver Broncos	13.93%	19.64%	22.46%	22.00%	21.97%
San Diego Chargers	11.76%	19.06%	21.16%	23.44%	24.58%
Seattle Seahawks	9.44%	17.16%	20.35%	24.26%	28.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Green Bay Packers	31.10%	24.81%	19.55%	15.18%	9.36%
Detroit Lions	28.50%	24.35%	21.32%	15.44%	10.39%
Minnesota Vikings	19.94%	22.21%	21.88%	20.54%	15.43%
Chicago Bears	14.82%	18.43%	20.84%	23.97%	21.94%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.64%	10.20%	16.41%	24.87%	42.88%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	50.66%	34.13%	10.73%	3.56%	0.92%
Dallas Cowboys	40.82%	38.18%	14.13%	5.33%	1.54%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.09%	14.94%	35.24%	27.61%	17.12%
New York Giants	2.20%	7.46%	23.10%	33.31%	33.93%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.23%	5.29%	16.80%	30.19%	46.49%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	55.93%	24.30%	13.39%	6.38%
Los Angeles Rams	17.07%	26.51%	29.13%	27.29%
New Orleans Saints	15.12%	26.48%	28.52%	29.88%
Atlanta Falcons	11.88%	22.71%	28.96%	36.45%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Miami Dolphins	25.24%	18.42%	13.26%	10.14%	8.14%	6.87%	5.25%	4.16%	2.95%	2.03%	1.51%	1.08%	0.68%	0.27%
Pittsburgh Steelers	21.47%	17.55%	14.63%	10.55%	9.39%	7.33%	5.50%	4.07%	3.60%	2.30%	1.64%	1.21%	0.55%	0.21%
Los Angeles Raiders	16.61%	16.09%	14.54%	10.48%	8.92%	7.71%	6.13%	5.26%	4.35%	3.67%	2.41%	1.97%	1.32%	0.54%
New York Jets	9.45%	10.04%	9.96%	11.45%	10.52%	9.11%	8.70%	7.47%	5.95%	5.18%	5.00%	3.40%	2.43%	1.34%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.32%	8.38%	9.10%	9.67%	10.26%	10.87%	8.70%	8.43%	8.06%	6.05%	4.75%	3.93%	3.01%	1.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.38%	4.78%	6.67%	7.24%	7.89%	9.08%	8.95%	9.77%	10.93%	8.44%	7.34%	6.71%	5.21%	3.61%
Buffalo Bills	3.50%	4.69%	5.61%	7.34%	7.65%	7.82%	8.70%	9.11%	8.70%	8.80%	9.13%	7.30%	6.35%	5.30%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.08%	4.36%	5.63%	6.69%	7.43%	7.82%	8.82%	8.87%	8.50%	9.13%	8.89%	8.33%	7.16%	5.29%
Denver Broncos	2.84%	4.57%	5.73%	6.95%	6.81%	7.78%	8.53%	8.39%	8.66%	9.03%	8.57%	8.43%	7.64%	6.07%
San Diego Chargers	2.39%	3.49%	5.27%	5.95%	6.96%	7.28%	8.01%	8.10%	8.97%	9.50%	9.59%	9.44%	8.32%	6.73%
New England Patriots	2.45%	3.54%	4.07%	5.71%	6.23%	6.95%	8.03%	8.85%	8.88%	10.34%	10.59%	8.96%	8.40%	7.00%
Seattle Seahawks	1.71%	3.13%	3.92%	5.18%	6.38%	6.50%	7.45%	8.29%	8.77%	9.70%	10.30%	9.97%	10.10%	8.60%
Baltimore Colts	0.36%	0.68%	1.03%	1.89%	2.16%	2.89%	4.52%	5.22%	6.36%	9.13%	10.33%	13.22%	17.88%	24.33%
Houston Oilers	0.20%	0.28%	0.58%	0.76%	1.26%	1.99%	2.71%	4.01%	5.32%	6.70%	9.95%	16.05%	20.95%	29.24%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Washington Redskins	33.55%	19.51%	13.42%	10.81%	6.96%	5.14%	3.51%	2.59%	1.66%	1.16%	0.71%	0.59%	0.25%	0.14%
Dallas Cowboys	27.24%	17.35%	14.43%	11.87%	8.45%	5.62%	4.56%	3.15%	2.54%	1.86%	1.26%	1.05%	0.39%	0.23%
San Francisco 49ers	12.67%	16.77%	14.48%	11.39%	9.59%	8.37%	6.59%	5.14%	5.16%	3.43%	2.45%	2.27%	1.28%	0.41%
Green Bay Packers	6.05%	9.68%	10.45%	9.96%	9.87%	9.29%	7.88%	7.80%	6.77%	6.11%	5.33%	4.66%	3.43%	2.72%
Detroit Lions	5.10%	8.53%	9.92%	9.79%	9.67%	9.40%	8.61%	7.84%	7.72%	6.38%	5.83%	4.56%	3.83%	2.82%
Minnesota Vikings	3.39%	5.92%	6.84%	7.85%	8.52%	8.83%	8.29%	8.90%	8.27%	7.93%	7.29%	6.63%	6.18%	5.16%
Los Angeles Rams	2.52%	4.18%	5.46%	6.49%	8.45%	8.51%	8.55%	8.63%	9.12%	8.82%	8.53%	9.00%	6.77%	4.97%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.81%	3.22%	4.73%	6.36%	7.14%	8.48%	10.20%	9.62%	8.94%	9.26%	8.52%	7.49%	7.35%	5.88%
New Orleans Saints	1.87%	3.93%	5.27%	5.91%	7.65%	8.37%	8.77%	8.92%	9.03%	8.65%	8.51%	9.08%	8.07%	5.97%
Chicago Bears	1.89%	4.44%	5.39%	6.31%	7.28%	7.20%	7.98%	8.31%	8.39%	9.11%	8.67%	8.40%	8.66%	7.97%
Atlanta Falcons	1.38%	3.02%	4.15%	4.88%	6.01%	7.33%	7.89%	8.43%	9.28%	9.57%	9.87%	11.04%	10.15%	7.00%
New York Giants	0.72%	1.47%	2.20%	3.29%	3.78%	5.36%	6.69%	7.78%	8.35%	9.98%	11.18%	11.27%	12.81%	15.12%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.37%	1.14%	2.00%	3.01%	4.05%	4.48%	5.72%	6.79%	7.65%	8.71%	10.89%	11.67%	15.12%	18.40%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.44%	0.84%	1.26%	2.08%	2.58%	3.62%	4.76%	6.10%	7.12%	9.03%	10.96%	12.29%	15.71%	23.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Washington Redskins	20.85%	13.60%	10.96%	8.89%	7.25%	6.14%	5.28%	4.71%	3.43%	3.14%	2.44%	2.76%	1.80%	1.70%	1.39%	1.24%	0.93%	0.82%	0.66%	0.44%	0.40%	0.29%	0.38%	0.20%	0.13%	0.08%	0.08%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	16.10%	12.42%	9.58%	8.24%	7.51%	6.54%	5.93%	5.22%	4.28%	3.81%	2.96%	2.87%	2.41%	1.79%	1.81%	1.60%	1.31%	1.15%	0.96%	0.73%	0.76%	0.71%	0.41%	0.37%	0.24%	0.18%	0.10%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	12.33%	12.36%	9.83%	8.93%	7.32%	6.22%	5.70%	4.99%	4.10%	3.87%	3.73%	2.98%	2.77%	2.56%	2.27%	1.96%	1.61%	1.22%	1.01%	0.87%	0.80%	0.69%	0.51%	0.55%	0.34%	0.24%	0.19%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.55%	10.33%	8.98%	9.10%	7.15%	7.07%	5.46%	5.48%	4.81%	4.76%	3.84%	3.35%	2.93%	2.69%	1.98%	2.13%	1.64%	1.75%	1.21%	1.04%	1.03%	0.80%	0.55%	0.54%	0.36%	0.22%	0.15%	0.10%
Los Angeles Raiders	8.07%	8.34%	8.11%	8.12%	7.00%	6.64%	5.85%	5.10%	4.96%	4.78%	4.06%	3.64%	3.06%	3.13%	2.60%	2.73%	2.27%	2.06%	1.75%	1.82%	1.29%	0.98%	1.06%	0.83%	0.59%	0.58%	0.40%	0.18%
San Francisco 49ers	7.08%	7.14%	7.89%	7.45%	7.03%	6.73%	5.77%	5.46%	5.33%	4.48%	4.48%	3.32%	3.70%	3.65%	2.75%	2.46%	2.54%	2.52%	1.98%	1.87%	1.47%	1.16%	1.07%	1.17%	0.59%	0.45%	0.32%	0.14%
New York Jets	4.17%	4.86%	5.10%	5.50%	5.14%	5.48%	5.47%	5.60%	5.06%	5.33%	4.54%	4.98%	4.19%	4.07%	3.74%	3.79%	2.95%	3.01%	2.68%	2.46%	2.49%	2.38%	1.86%	1.48%	1.26%	1.10%	0.84%	0.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.88%	3.78%	4.41%	4.08%	4.69%	5.02%	4.84%	5.00%	5.21%	4.72%	5.24%	5.25%	4.43%	4.73%	3.75%	4.17%	3.76%	4.09%	2.99%	2.98%	2.42%	2.63%	2.11%	1.92%	1.73%	1.49%	0.94%	0.74%
Green Bay Packers	2.95%	3.80%	4.42%	4.57%	5.48%	5.18%	4.76%	4.92%	5.15%	4.66%	4.48%	4.55%	4.39%	3.67%	3.86%	4.03%	3.59%	3.36%	3.26%	3.12%	2.65%	2.81%	2.32%	2.19%	2.07%	1.37%	1.46%	0.93%
Detroit Lions	2.49%	2.97%	3.96%	4.56%	4.87%	4.73%	4.95%	4.83%	4.65%	4.86%	4.66%	4.56%	4.48%	4.51%	4.00%	3.81%	4.13%	3.53%	3.38%	3.33%	3.21%	2.73%	2.58%	1.92%	2.21%	1.74%	1.44%	0.91%
Minnesota Vikings	1.44%	1.95%	2.87%	3.06%	3.24%	3.46%	3.72%	4.04%	4.22%	4.20%	4.20%	4.54%	4.11%	4.36%	4.58%	4.25%	4.13%	4.26%	4.17%	4.02%	3.84%	3.94%	3.42%	3.18%	3.52%	2.72%	2.58%	1.98%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.04%	1.90%	2.45%	2.51%	3.36%	3.51%	3.69%	3.64%	3.94%	4.04%	4.33%	4.59%	4.30%	4.44%	4.61%	4.81%	4.79%	5.48%	4.11%	4.31%	3.82%	3.88%	3.23%	3.54%	2.80%	2.77%	2.23%	1.88%
Buffalo Bills	1.20%	2.02%	2.19%	2.42%	3.08%	3.01%	3.74%	3.60%	3.85%	4.30%	4.11%	3.97%	4.12%	4.34%	4.25%	4.64%	4.60%	3.81%	4.49%	4.28%	4.31%	4.45%	3.82%	3.44%	3.38%	3.16%	2.95%	2.47%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.05%	1.65%	1.92%	2.49%	2.93%	3.07%	3.25%	3.40%	3.56%	3.82%	4.14%	4.16%	4.49%	4.24%	4.22%	4.61%	4.24%	4.54%	4.42%	4.48%	4.36%	4.15%	4.40%	4.20%	3.33%	3.61%	2.82%	2.45%
Los Angeles Rams	0.98%	1.51%	2.01%	2.04%	2.59%	2.90%	3.01%	3.68%	3.94%	3.64%	3.89%	4.35%	4.84%	4.16%	4.11%	4.30%	4.58%	4.57%	4.47%	4.44%	4.24%	4.55%	4.36%	4.39%	3.89%	3.40%	2.92%	2.24%
Denver Broncos	0.95%	1.78%	1.88%	2.32%	2.67%	3.20%	3.58%	3.58%	3.45%	3.62%	3.79%	4.07%	4.13%	4.29%	4.44%	4.52%	4.42%	4.33%	4.28%	4.29%	4.16%	4.18%	4.32%	3.97%	4.08%	3.83%	3.24%	2.63%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.23%	1.42%	1.84%	1.74%	2.32%	2.57%	3.13%	3.50%	3.49%	3.76%	4.39%	4.35%	4.69%	4.84%	4.57%	4.90%	4.44%	4.45%	4.91%	4.32%	4.89%	4.20%	4.01%	3.59%	3.80%	3.27%	3.06%	2.32%
New Orleans Saints	0.81%	1.14%	1.92%	2.07%	2.28%	2.46%	2.89%	3.07%	3.85%	3.72%	3.92%	4.05%	4.19%	4.47%	4.69%	4.39%	4.51%	4.52%	4.62%	4.04%	4.45%	4.29%	4.86%	4.37%	3.93%	4.18%	3.23%	3.08%
Chicago Bears	0.77%	1.12%	1.99%	2.16%	2.34%	3.08%	2.86%	3.39%	3.37%	3.69%	3.69%	3.81%	3.83%	3.89%	4.41%	4.06%	4.33%	4.44%	4.77%	4.56%	4.84%	3.97%	4.48%	4.44%	4.37%	4.04%	4.08%	3.22%
San Diego Chargers	0.89%	1.21%	1.66%	1.95%	2.44%	2.87%	2.92%	3.05%	3.66%	3.52%	3.59%	3.79%	4.15%	3.73%	4.22%	4.20%	4.70%	4.07%	4.87%	4.70%	4.47%	4.91%	4.79%	4.41%	4.30%	4.27%	3.27%	3.39%
New England Patriots	0.73%	1.33%	1.54%	1.93%	2.35%	2.43%	2.80%	2.89%	3.04%	3.20%	3.72%	3.72%	3.98%	4.17%	4.25%	4.50%	4.48%	4.51%	5.02%	4.86%	4.69%	5.30%	4.55%	4.39%	4.21%	4.15%	3.99%	3.27%
Seattle Seahawks	0.53%	1.14%	1.37%	1.66%	1.77%	2.06%	2.57%	2.75%	3.31%	3.21%	3.18%	3.32%	3.78%	4.02%	4.10%	3.91%	4.44%	4.50%	4.89%	4.70%	4.79%	5.33%	4.89%	5.30%	4.94%	4.92%	4.31%	4.31%
Atlanta Falcons	0.43%	0.95%	1.21%	1.53%	2.02%	1.95%	2.38%	2.79%	2.84%	3.02%	3.40%	3.33%	3.78%	4.25%	4.28%	3.81%	4.76%	4.80%	4.31%	5.12%	4.98%	5.36%	5.18%	5.78%	4.79%	5.28%	4.28%	3.39%
New York Giants	0.17%	0.50%	0.60%	0.95%	1.13%	1.12%	1.71%	1.61%	1.75%	2.16%	3.06%	2.62%	3.02%	3.27%	4.14%	3.73%	4.32%	4.31%	4.92%	5.02%	5.51%	5.33%	5.54%	6.47%	6.68%	6.12%	7.53%	6.71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.14%	0.32%	0.38%	0.71%	0.79%	0.95%	1.34%	1.52%	1.88%	2.01%	2.26%	2.55%	2.64%	2.95%	3.36%	3.40%	3.66%	4.19%	4.43%	4.87%	5.55%	5.20%	6.16%	6.17%	7.51%	7.95%	8.74%	8.37%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.12%	0.18%	0.38%	0.47%	0.54%	0.87%	0.99%	0.99%	1.32%	1.60%	1.67%	1.99%	2.38%	2.26%	3.09%	3.09%	3.44%	3.41%	4.46%	5.21%	4.93%	5.44%	6.54%	6.66%	8.21%	7.95%	10.58%	11.23%
Baltimore Colts	0.04%	0.19%	0.37%	0.38%	0.52%	0.43%	1.02%	0.86%	0.93%	1.42%	1.44%	1.49%	2.12%	2.39%	2.52%	2.90%	3.00%	3.56%	4.15%	4.52%	5.12%	5.27%	6.06%	6.65%	8.16%	9.53%	11.20%	13.76%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.09%	0.18%	0.17%	0.19%	0.31%	0.39%	0.33%	0.62%	0.66%	0.79%	1.04%	1.29%	1.43%	2.01%	2.06%	2.43%	2.74%	2.83%	3.60%	4.53%	5.07%	6.54%	7.88%	8.58%	11.40%	13.07%	19.76%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	25.24%	17.40%	10.89%	12.47%	8.93%	25.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	21.47%	18.17%	18.15%	8.66%	8.26%	25.29%
Los Angeles Raiders	16.61%	17.08%	17.38%	8.16%	7.91%	32.86%
New York Jets	9.45%	8.83%	6.36%	14.26%	11.99%	49.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.32%	8.24%	9.69%	10.01%	10.06%	54.68%
Buffalo Bills	3.50%	4.28%	3.62%	8.49%	8.43%	71.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.38%	5.01%	6.95%	7.14%	7.69%	69.83%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.08%	4.77%	5.95%	6.04%	7.19%	72.97%
Denver Broncos	2.84%	4.86%	6.23%	6.05%	6.81%	73.21%
New England Patriots	2.45%	3.10%	3.02%	6.28%	6.65%	78.50%
San Diego Chargers	2.39%	3.83%	5.54%	5.51%	6.60%	76.13%
Seattle Seahawks	1.71%	3.44%	4.29%	4.50%	6.26%	79.80%
Baltimore Colts	0.36%	0.66%	0.84%	1.83%	2.26%	94.05%
Houston Oilers	0.20%	0.33%	1.09%	0.60%	0.96%	96.82%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	33.55%	12.79%	4.32%	23.43%	9.62%	16.29%
Dallas Cowboys	27.24%	10.05%	3.53%	26.44%	11.21%	21.53%
San Francisco 49ers	12.67%	20.75%	22.51%	4.37%	6.71%	32.99%
Green Bay Packers	6.05%	12.16%	12.89%	5.77%	9.08%	54.05%
Detroit Lions	5.10%	10.92%	12.48%	5.57%	9.04%	56.89%
Minnesota Vikings	3.39%	7.76%	8.79%	4.60%	7.94%	67.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.81%	1.53%	0.75%	8.63%	8.96%	77.32%
Los Angeles Rams	2.52%	5.79%	8.76%	3.67%	7.38%	71.88%
Chicago Bears	1.89%	5.79%	7.14%	3.33%	6.88%	74.97%
New Orleans Saints	1.87%	5.04%	8.21%	3.57%	6.77%	74.54%
Atlanta Falcons	1.38%	4.14%	6.36%	2.80%	5.54%	79.78%
New York Giants	0.72%	0.97%	0.51%	3.98%	4.38%	89.44%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.44%	0.48%	0.31%	2.42%	2.93%	93.42%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.37%	1.83%	3.44%	1.42%	3.56%	89.38%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	76.87%	76.87%	58.00%	39.76%	27.16%
Miami Dolphins	68.20%	68.20%	44.68%	29.00%	14.68%
Dallas Cowboys	66.38%	66.38%	43.48%	21.59%	12.45%
Los Angeles Raiders	61.04%	61.04%	36.60%	21.19%	9.89%
San Francisco 49ers	61.90%	61.90%	31.71%	15.82%	8.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.81%	66.81%	33.37%	15.86%	6.04%
Detroit Lions	34.77%	34.77%	13.62%	5.53%	2.53%
Cincinnati Bengals	35.47%	35.47%	15.91%	6.88%	2.46%
New York Jets	37.83%	37.83%	17.80%	7.27%	2.33%
Green Bay Packers	36.62%	36.62%	12.24%	4.31%	1.84%
Kansas City Chiefs	19.78%	19.78%	8.05%	3.25%	1.23%
Seattle Seahawks	14.71%	14.71%	6.72%	3.04%	1.18%
Los Angeles Rams	21.23%	21.23%	7.72%	2.77%	1.14%
Minnesota Vikings	24.14%	24.14%	7.26%	2.29%	1.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	21.92%	21.92%	8.82%	3.33%	0.96%
Denver Broncos	19.64%	19.64%	7.64%	2.63%	0.91%
New England Patriots	14.61%	14.61%	6.18%	2.51%	0.89%
Chicago Bears	18.06%	18.06%	5.83%	1.91%	0.76%
Atlanta Falcons	14.78%	14.78%	4.95%	1.66%	0.75%
New Orleans Saints	18.72%	18.72%	6.27%	1.96%	0.73%
Buffalo Bills	18.10%	18.10%	6.91%	2.68%	0.63%
San Diego Chargers	16.68%	16.68%	5.85%	1.97%	0.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.59%	11.00%	3.94%	1.03%	0.41%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.35%	3.62%	1.63%	0.52%	0.21%
New York Giants	8.36%	5.18%	1.98%	0.51%	0.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.73%	6.73%	1.37%	0.34%	0.11%
Baltimore Colts	4.09%	3.18%	0.97%	0.26%	0.07%
Houston Oilers	2.03%	2.03%	0.50%	0.13%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.08%	0.11%	0.11%	0.07%	0.01%	0.15%	0.13%	0.03%	0.07%	0.12%	0.17%	0.14%	0.13%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%		0.94%	0.77%	0.68%	0.10%	0.64%	0.40%	0.45%	0.27%	0.72%	0.65%	0.62%	0.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.32%	1.29%		0.66%	0.84%	0.03%	0.79%	0.61%	0.99%	0.84%	2.08%	0.26%	0.83%	0.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.11%	0.98%	0.53%		0.44%	0.04%	0.73%	0.42%	0.54%	0.49%	1.16%	0.29%	0.51%	0.34%
Denver Broncos	0.23%	0.72%	0.62%	0.52%		0.13%	0.27%	0.17%	0.51%	0.50%	1.10%	0.54%	0.20%	0.20%
Houston Oilers	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%		0.08%	0.05%	0.02%		0.07%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.22%	0.69%	0.75%	0.60%	0.27%	0.06%		0.20%	0.55%	0.63%	1.08%	0.55%	0.18%	0.20%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.53%	1.24%	1.20%	0.85%	0.37%	0.12%	0.24%		1.07%	0.91%	1.88%	0.90%	0.37%	0.29%
Miami Dolphins	0.22%	0.94%	1.96%	1.46%	1.40%	0.15%	1.24%	1.54%		0.71%	0.86%	1.53%	1.55%	1.11%
New England Patriots	0.10%	0.43%	0.56%	0.55%	0.65%	0.12%	0.68%	0.40%	0.31%		0.56%	0.66%	0.53%	0.49%
New York Jets	0.27%	0.95%	1.75%	1.38%	1.41%	0.19%	1.40%	1.20%	0.37%	0.70%		1.47%	1.26%	0.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.28%	1.34%	0.32%	0.38%	0.64%	0.05%	0.67%	0.72%	0.89%	0.79%	1.51%		0.85%	0.58%
San Diego Chargers	0.22%	0.80%	0.49%	0.44%	0.19%	0.09%	0.13%	0.07%	0.50%	0.48%	0.93%	0.37%		0.21%
Seattle Seahawks	0.19%	0.72%	0.60%	0.52%	0.16%	0.06%	0.23%	0.19%	0.50%	0.50%	0.99%	0.49%	0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.16%	0.65%	0.27%	0.21%	0.04%	0.22%	0.10%	0.15%	0.49%	0.03%	0.08%	0.11%	0.39%
Chicago Bears	0.17%		0.81%	0.17%	0.14%	0.17%	0.14%	0.11%	0.25%	0.44%	0.15%	0.11%	0.03%	0.55%
Dallas Cowboys	1.69%	2.35%		2.81%	3.07%	2.26%	2.81%	2.17%	1.17%	3.04%	1.61%	0.77%	1.20%	0.61%
Detroit Lions	0.35%	0.17%	1.55%		0.32%	0.34%	0.18%	0.33%	0.47%	0.83%	0.34%	0.26%	0.13%	1.00%
Green Bay Packers	0.24%	0.25%	1.45%	0.18%		0.33%	0.15%	0.35%	0.41%	0.91%	0.21%	0.11%	0.09%	0.84%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	0.22%	1.21%	0.26%	0.28%		0.25%	0.16%	0.28%	0.56%	0.04%	0.19%	0.17%	0.47%
Minnesota Vikings	0.21%	0.09%	0.97%	0.16%	0.18%	0.25%		0.30%	0.38%	0.69%	0.21%	0.17%	0.06%	0.53%
New Orleans Saints	0.08%	0.20%	0.82%	0.31%	0.27%	0.11%	0.18%		0.27%	0.62%	0.04%	0.10%	0.10%	0.50%
New York Giants	0.21%	0.23%	0.48%	0.20%	0.32%	0.15%	0.30%	0.33%		0.23%	0.15%	0.05%	0.16%	0.17%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.38%	0.28%	0.95%	0.62%	0.56%	0.50%	0.70%	0.47%	0.19%		0.34%	0.13%	0.29%	0.50%
San Francisco 49ers	0.12%	0.22%	1.44%	0.41%	0.53%	0.16%	0.39%	0.13%	0.31%	0.68%		0.29%	0.26%	1.03%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.13%	0.17%	0.31%	0.28%	0.22%	0.19%	0.28%	0.16%	0.11%	0.17%	0.13%		0.11%	0.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.01%	0.28%	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.03%	0.08%	0.11%	0.20%	0.07%	0.04%		0.12%
Washington Redskins	1.73%	2.62%	1.17%	2.65%	3.21%	2.34%	2.71%	2.05%	1.28%	2.82%	1.79%	0.66%	1.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.18%	0.06%	0.11%	0.02%	0.09%	0.19%				0.19%	0.09%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills			0.84%	0.79%	0.61%	0.06%	0.58%	1.11%				1.88%	0.59%	0.45%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.22%	1.28%			1.35%		1.16%	2.91%	3.28%	1.11%	2.52%		1.17%	0.91%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.17%	0.88%			0.72%		0.70%	1.52%	1.77%	0.55%	1.44%		0.64%	0.43%
Denver Broncos	0.10%	0.73%	0.91%	0.61%		0.09%			1.53%	0.40%	1.21%	2.06%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.02%			0.04%		0.03%	0.08%	0.04%	0.07%	0.11%		0.05%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.23%	0.64%	0.87%	0.67%		0.11%			1.44%	0.54%	1.50%	2.05%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.67%	3.01%	4.98%	3.46%		0.29%			6.92%	2.62%	6.30%	8.35%
Miami Dolphins			6.61%	4.25%	4.00%	0.41%	4.05%	8.72%				9.92%	3.78%	2.94%
New England Patriots			0.91%	0.60%	0.66%	0.08%	0.57%	1.17%				1.41%	0.43%	0.35%
New York Jets			2.54%	1.66%	1.69%	0.29%	1.60%	3.22%				4.47%	1.41%	0.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.58%	3.30%			2.82%		2.95%	5.52%	6.07%	2.42%	5.14%		2.67%	1.90%
San Diego Chargers	0.17%	0.71%	0.77%	0.54%		0.09%			1.05%	0.34%	0.77%	1.41%
Seattle Seahawks	0.06%	0.62%	0.95%	0.46%		0.09%			1.42%	0.38%	1.04%	1.70%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.34%	1.11%	0.58%	0.63%		0.39%		0.12%	0.32%		0.21%	0.15%	1.10%
Chicago Bears	0.25%		1.60%			0.46%		0.42%	0.15%	0.56%	1.00%	0.12%		1.27%
Dallas Cowboys	3.20%	3.61%		6.10%	7.14%	4.04%	4.65%	3.61%			9.47%		1.66%
Detroit Lions	0.79%		3.35%			1.10%		1.01%	0.47%	1.16%	2.33%	0.27%		3.14%
Green Bay Packers	0.67%		2.86%			1.05%		1.08%	0.39%	1.19%	2.09%	0.26%		2.65%
Los Angeles Rams		0.42%	1.89%	0.75%	0.95%		0.87%		0.24%	0.64%		0.24%	0.34%	1.38%
Minnesota Vikings	0.47%		1.92%			0.73%		0.61%	0.30%	0.61%	1.04%	0.08%		1.50%
New Orleans Saints		0.42%	1.67%	0.84%	0.82%		0.58%		0.19%	0.35%		0.07%	0.23%	1.10%
New York Giants	0.15%	0.13%		0.30%	0.34%	0.14%	0.27%	0.13%			0.46%		0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.24%	0.29%		0.58%	0.70%	0.33%	0.49%	0.29%			0.85%		0.17%
San Francisco 49ers		2.16%	8.16%	3.18%	3.81%		3.08%		1.29%	2.08%		0.71%	0.78%	6.46%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.16%	0.11%		0.19%	0.34%	0.15%	0.20%	0.09%			0.34%		0.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.10%		0.34%			0.17%		0.11%	0.05%	0.15%	0.15%	0.03%		0.27%
Washington Redskins	3.80%	4.75%		8.63%	9.65%	5.34%	6.35%	5.10%			12.46%		1.92%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%			0.03%	0.04%	0.05%		0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills			0.18%	0.14%	0.16%	0.01%	0.09%	0.51%	0.54%	0.07%	0.27%	0.51%	0.05%	0.15%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.04%	0.27%		0.33%	0.36%	0.02%	0.38%	1.37%	1.27%	0.32%	0.67%	1.41%	0.23%	0.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.03%	0.14%	0.21%		0.16%	0.01%	0.16%	0.74%	0.72%	0.14%	0.30%	0.54%	0.10%	0.08%
Denver Broncos	0.02%	0.11%	0.22%	0.13%		0.02%	0.14%	0.37%	0.57%	0.11%	0.27%	0.46%	0.13%	0.08%
Houston Oilers		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.03%		0.01%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.17%	0.37%	0.22%	0.13%	0.02%		0.55%	0.62%	0.09%	0.32%	0.59%	0.06%	0.10%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.20%	0.91%	2.00%	1.29%	1.09%	0.09%	1.09%		4.48%	0.89%	2.25%	5.11%	0.99%	0.80%
Miami Dolphins	0.20%	1.40%	2.88%	1.67%	1.55%	0.12%	1.35%	6.04%		1.14%	4.06%	6.20%	1.26%	1.13%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.07%	0.21%	0.13%	0.12%		0.12%	0.48%	0.52%		0.32%	0.42%	0.06%	0.05%
New York Jets	0.03%	0.28%	0.56%	0.40%	0.24%	0.03%	0.43%	1.35%	1.97%	0.24%		1.26%	0.25%	0.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.13%	0.68%	1.71%	0.90%	0.98%	0.03%	0.77%	3.21%	3.90%	0.55%	1.54%		0.68%	0.78%
San Diego Chargers		0.04%	0.39%	0.07%	0.08%	0.01%	0.14%	0.25%	0.41%	0.02%	0.13%	0.38%		0.05%
Seattle Seahawks	0.04%	0.13%	0.26%	0.19%	0.12%	0.01%	0.09%	0.49%	0.60%	0.10%	0.36%	0.59%	0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.04%	0.41%	0.14%	0.09%	0.09%	0.19%	0.03%	0.03%	0.06%	0.20%	0.02%	0.02%	0.34%
Chicago Bears	0.07%		0.41%	0.07%	0.17%	0.10%	0.09%	0.07%	0.03%	0.04%	0.40%	0.03%		0.43%
Dallas Cowboys	0.77%	0.88%		1.69%	1.83%	1.33%	0.72%	0.84%	0.34%	0.71%	3.93%	0.19%	0.20%	8.16%
Detroit Lions	0.16%	0.13%	1.14%		0.49%	0.26%	0.25%	0.30%	0.06%	0.14%	1.10%	0.05%	0.03%	1.42%
Green Bay Packers	0.25%	0.20%	0.86%	0.38%		0.19%	0.18%	0.23%	0.04%	0.13%	0.84%	0.04%	0.04%	0.93%
Los Angeles Rams	0.06%	0.11%	0.35%	0.37%	0.18%		0.15%	0.08%	0.08%	0.10%	0.33%	0.04%	0.11%	0.81%
Minnesota Vikings	0.10%	0.08%	0.33%	0.14%	0.12%	0.16%		0.13%	0.05%	0.03%	0.59%	0.02%	0.01%	0.53%
New Orleans Saints	0.06%	0.08%	0.41%	0.19%	0.22%	0.06%	0.11%			0.09%	0.29%	0.03%		0.42%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.02%	0.13%	0.04%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%				0.08%	0.01%		0.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.05%	0.04%	0.16%	0.08%	0.08%	0.05%	0.10%	0.03%			0.14%	0.03%	0.01%	0.26%
San Francisco 49ers	0.49%	0.82%	3.28%	1.68%	1.78%	0.74%	0.94%	0.51%	0.20%	0.38%		0.12%	0.29%	4.59%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.02%	0.10%	0.05%	0.07%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%		0.01%	0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%		0.05%		0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.10%			0.10%
Washington Redskins	1.24%	1.50%	14.26%	3.26%	2.87%	1.91%	2.20%	2.04%	0.62%	1.20%	7.82%	0.53%	0.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.02%		0.03%	0.01%		0.03%				0.04%	0.10%		0.19%		0.07%			0.04%		0.18%	0.01%		0.03%
Baltimore Colts							0.02%			0.01%				0.01%										0.01%				0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%			0.02%			0.13%		0.02%	0.03%				0.03%		0.01%		0.05%			0.01%			0.12%				0.19%
Chicago Bears			0.04%		0.05%	0.02%		0.03%				0.02%	0.12%		0.16%		0.02%			0.08%		0.13%	0.05%		0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.05%			0.07%			0.46%		0.16%	0.22%				0.13%		0.13%		0.08%	0.01%		0.04%			0.41%		0.01%	0.03%	0.66%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.03%			0.04%			0.24%		0.10%	0.05%				0.04%				0.01%	0.03%		0.01%			0.12%			0.01%	0.28%
Dallas Cowboys		0.03%	0.43%		0.93%	0.55%		0.39%			0.03%	0.39%	2.67%		2.92%		0.27%			1.04%		2.13%	0.26%		0.41%
Denver Broncos	0.03%			0.03%			0.20%		0.09%	0.04%				0.07%		0.04%		0.01%						0.22%				0.18%
Detroit Lions		0.02%	0.10%		0.21%	0.10%		0.09%			0.01%	0.08%	0.38%		0.63%		0.09%			0.26%		0.49%	0.02%		0.05%
Green Bay Packers			0.08%		0.22%	0.08%		0.05%				0.09%	0.31%		0.49%		0.07%			0.16%		0.20%	0.02%		0.07%
Houston Oilers										0.01%																		0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%			0.02%			0.31%		0.10%	0.08%				0.05%		0.03%		0.05%	0.02%		0.02%			0.11%		0.01%	0.02%	0.38%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.22%			0.25%			2.10%		0.77%	0.59%				0.44%		0.26%		0.29%	0.04%		0.14%			1.74%		0.12%	0.02%	2.91%
Los Angeles Rams			0.04%		0.11%	0.08%		0.04%				0.03%	0.23%		0.20%		0.01%			0.12%		0.15%	0.03%		0.10%
Miami Dolphins	0.28%			0.42%			3.27%		1.05%	0.83%				0.48%		0.47%		0.41%	0.10%		0.24%			2.39%		0.08%	0.08%	4.58%
Minnesota Vikings			0.01%		0.07%	0.08%		0.03%				0.04%	0.15%		0.23%		0.04%			0.10%		0.16%	0.05%		0.05%
New England Patriots	0.03%			0.04%			0.16%		0.03%	0.07%				0.04%		0.03%		0.02%			0.04%			0.11%		0.01%	0.02%	0.29%
New Orleans Saints			0.01%		0.06%	0.02%		0.03%				0.02%	0.20%		0.14%		0.02%			0.05%		0.13%	0.02%		0.03%
New York Giants					0.03%	0.01%							0.05%		0.03%					0.03%		0.05%
New York Jets	0.04%			0.06%			0.51%		0.21%	0.15%				0.09%		0.07%		0.08%	0.01%		0.01%			0.43%		0.02%	0.02%	0.63%
Philadelphia Eagles					0.03%	0.02%		0.04%				0.01%	0.06%		0.12%		0.04%			0.02%		0.05%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.12%			0.16%			1.42%		0.40%	0.26%				0.20%		0.15%		0.16%	0.09%		0.09%			0.98%		0.03%	0.02%	1.96%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%			0.02%			0.06%		0.04%	0.03%				0.01%		0.02%		0.03%			0.01%			0.10%		0.01%		0.12%
San Francisco 49ers		0.06%	0.36%		0.61%	0.38%		0.24%			0.03%	0.35%	1.94%		2.03%		0.27%			0.63%		1.43%	0.29%		0.30%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%			0.02%			0.26%		0.03%	0.10%				0.04%		0.07%		0.04%	0.01%		0.01%			0.16%		0.02%	0.01%	0.38%
St. Louis Cardinals			0.01%		0.02%	0.01%		0.01%				0.02%	0.03%		0.04%		0.02%			0.01%		0.02%			0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers					0.04%								0.02%		0.01%							0.03%			0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.08%	0.95%		2.01%	1.01%		0.74%			0.03%	0.93%	5.04%		7.13%		0.70%			2.40%		4.67%	0.72%		0.75%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Washington Redskins	100.00%	76.33%	51.41%	32.42%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	71.83%	39.94%	18.77%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Raiders	100.00%	63.10%	33.72%	15.24%	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	52.51%	20.50%	10.47%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	70.92%	36.16%	14.96%	8.03%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	36.90%	15.18%	5.68%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Detroit Lions	100.00%	28.35%	10.59%	4.62%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	60.57%	18.12%	7.24%	2.64%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Los Angeles Rams	29.08%	6.65%	2.54%	1.08%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	39.43%	10.05%	3.92%	1.05%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos		39.43%
Seattle Seahawks	60.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Cowboys		70.92%
Los Angeles Rams	29.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos			10.05%
Los Angeles Raiders				63.10%
Miami Dolphins	29.38%				42.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers		36.90%
Seattle Seahawks			18.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys				36.16%
Detroit Lions				11.33%	17.02%
Los Angeles Rams					6.65%
San Francisco 49ers	34.76%	17.75%
Washington Redskins		53.90%	22.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos		2.26%		1.66%
Los Angeles Raiders	3.86%		22.60%		7.26%
Miami Dolphins		23.17%		16.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.27%		9.29%		3.62%
Seattle Seahawks		3.95%		3.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		4.90%			10.06%
Detroit Lions	3.69%		1.39%	3.45%	2.06%
Los Angeles Rams		1.06%		1.48%
San Francisco 49ers		4.98%	2.72%		12.80%
Washington Redskins	17.51%	6.82%		27.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		0.45%		2.66%		2.95%	1.31%		0.66%
Denver Broncos	0.18%		0.15%		0.06%			0.30%		0.36%
Detroit Lions		0.24%		1.55%		1.67%	0.81%		0.35%
Los Angeles Raiders	2.46%		1.94%		0.46%			3.45%		6.93%
Los Angeles Rams		0.04%		0.33%		0.41%	0.23%		0.07%
Miami Dolphins	3.05%		2.76%		0.68%			4.16%		8.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.91%		0.63%		0.22%			1.52%		2.40%
San Francisco 49ers		0.51%		3.30%		3.85%	1.78%		1.03%
Seattle Seahawks	0.33%		0.49%		0.04%			0.60%		1.18%
Washington Redskins		1.63%		10.64%		12.29%	5.37%		2.49%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Washington Redskins 32.42% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

70.61%

Win Prob

76.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

52.67%

Win Prob

67.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

37.91%

Win Prob

60.22%

Miami Dolphins 18.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

59.10%

Win Prob

70.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

58.01%

Win Prob

50.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

43.26%

Win Prob

39.78%

Los Angeles Raiders 15.24% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

67.02%

Win Prob

49.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

45.47%

Win Prob

39.44%

San Francisco 49ers 10.47% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

66.20%

Win Prob

49.01%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

62.44%

Win Prob

32.10%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

36.77%

Win Prob

48.06%

Dallas Cowboys 8.03% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.92%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

67.25%

Win Prob

36.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

36.74%

Win Prob

49.17%

Pittsburgh Steelers 5.68% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

61.20%

Win Prob

35.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

42.25%

Win Prob

30.89%

Detroit Lions 4.62% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

60.04%

Win Prob

24.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

34.84%

Win Prob

42.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

36.15%

Win Prob

37.70%

Seattle Seahawks 2.64% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

54.56%

Win Prob

35.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

44.70%

Win Prob

32.15%

Los Angeles Rams 1.08% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.08%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.27%

Win Prob

35.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

37.96%

Win Prob

37.61%

Denver Broncos 1.05% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

57.65%

Win Prob

36.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

34.29%

Win Prob

18.09%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1983-09-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1481.98	1465.71	48.70%	50.72%	+8.77	1-0
1983-09-11	New York Giants	L 13-16	1490.75	1487.07	53.58%	45.84%	-9.26	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-14	1481.49	1500.64	43.64%	55.79%	+22.25	2-1
1983-09-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1503.74	1554.12	39.28%	60.14%	-7.84	2-2
1983-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1495.90	1502.86	52.06%	47.36%	-10.39	2-3
1983-10-09	New Orleans Saints	L 17-19	1485.51	1490.82	52.30%	47.12%	-7.38	2-4
1983-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1478.13	1497.66	43.58%	55.84%	-10.66	2-5
1983-10-23	@ New York Jets	W 27-21	1467.47	1533.63	37.13%	62.29%	+15.21	3-5
1983-10-30	New England Patriots	W 24-13	1482.68	1512.61	48.76%	50.66%	+16.77	4-5
1983-11-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-27	1499.45	1475.55	49.80%	49.62%	-20.49	4-6
1983-11-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-36	1478.96	1491.83	51.21%	48.21%	-24.50	4-7
1983-11-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-24	1454.46	1587.48	34.45%	64.97%	+12.95	5-7
1983-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 47-41	1467.41	1497.04	48.80%	50.62%	+12.37	6-7
1983-12-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-37	1479.78	1681.92	21.26%	78.16%	-8.51	6-8
1983-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-31	1471.27	1625.43	26.25%	73.17%	-6.95	6-9
1983-12-18	Buffalo Bills	W 31-14	1464.32	1469.13	52.37%	47.05%	+19.37	7-9
1983-09-04	@ New England Patriots	W 29-23	1406.64	1478.96	36.31%	63.11%	+15.41	1-0
1983-09-11	Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1422.05	1472.30	45.84%	53.58%	-12.10	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-28	1409.95	1496.47	34.44%	64.98%	-7.70	1-2
1983-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 22-19	1402.25	1461.70	44.53%	54.89%	+9.48	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-31	1411.73	1501.97	33.96%	65.46%	+11.30	3-2
1983-10-09	New England Patriots	W 12-7	1423.03	1468.32	46.55%	52.87%	+11.80	4-2
1983-10-16	Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1434.83	1504.31	43.11%	56.31%	-20.65	4-3
1983-10-23	Miami Dolphins	L 7-21	1414.18	1575.82	30.83%	68.59%	-11.54	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-21	1402.64	1498.96	33.18%	66.24%	+6.61	5-4
1983-11-06	@ New York Jets	W 17-14	1409.25	1542.48	28.65%	70.78%	+12.22	6-4
1983-11-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1421.47	1605.67	28.13%	71.29%	-9.34	6-5
1983-11-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-37	1412.13	1589.58	23.74%	75.69%	-14.45	6-6
1983-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-41	1397.68	1493.50	33.24%	66.18%	-14.09	6-7
1983-12-04	New York Jets	L 6-10	1383.59	1543.40	31.06%	68.36%	-6.22	6-8
1983-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-21	1377.37	1492.20	30.86%	68.56%	-4.36	6-9
1983-12-18	Houston Oilers	W 20-10	1373.01	1331.84	58.87%	40.55%	+12.81	7-9
1983-09-04	Miami Dolphins	L 0-12	1499.94	1567.45	43.39%	56.03%	-15.01	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-6	1484.93	1518.71	41.58%	57.84%	+11.54	1-1
1983-09-18	Baltimore Colts	W 28-23	1496.47	1409.95	64.98%	34.44%	+7.70	2-1
1983-09-25	Houston Oilers	W 30-13	1504.17	1404.09	66.72%	32.70%	+13.47	3-1
1983-10-03	New York Jets	L 10-34	1517.64	1542.47	49.49%	49.93%	-24.19	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Miami Dolphins	W 38-35	1493.45	1564.04	36.54%	62.88%	+10.86	4-2
1983-10-16	@ Baltimore Colts	W 30-7	1504.31	1434.83	56.31%	43.11%	+20.64	5-2
1983-10-23	New England Patriots	L 0-31	1524.95	1479.60	59.45%	39.97%	-33.00	5-3
1983-10-30	New Orleans Saints	W 27-21	1491.95	1486.70	53.81%	45.61%	+11.15	6-3
1983-11-06	@ New England Patriots	L 7-21	1503.10	1495.84	47.40%	52.02%	-17.70	6-4
1983-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1485.40	1530.26	40.04%	59.39%	+15.67	7-4
1983-11-20	Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-27	1501.07	1586.87	40.82%	58.60%	-7.06	7-5
1983-11-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-41	1494.01	1500.99	45.37%	54.06%	-22.19	7-6
1983-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-9	1471.82	1488.29	44.02%	55.41%	+12.35	8-6
1983-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1484.17	1563.01	41.79%	57.63%	-15.04	8-7
1983-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-31	1469.13	1464.32	47.05%	52.37%	-19.37	8-8
1983-09-04	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1465.71	1481.98	50.72%	48.70%	-8.76	0-1
1983-09-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1456.95	1473.38	50.70%	48.72%	+12.86	1-1
1983-09-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 31-34	1469.81	1466.04	46.90%	52.52%	-8.11	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 19-22	1461.70	1402.25	54.89%	44.53%	-9.48	1-3
1983-10-02	Denver Broncos	W 31-14	1452.22	1461.06	51.79%	47.63%	+19.60	2-3
1983-10-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-23	1471.82	1477.50	52.24%	47.18%	-15.63	2-4
1983-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-31	1456.19	1482.93	42.56%	56.86%	-15.91	2-5
1983-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-6	1440.28	1505.16	37.30%	62.12%	+6.20	3-5
1983-10-30	Detroit Lions	L 17-38	1446.48	1485.06	47.51%	51.91%	-21.73	3-6
1983-11-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-21	1424.75	1481.69	38.38%	61.04%	-10.15	3-7
1983-11-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1414.60	1483.82	43.15%	56.28%	+9.72	4-7
1983-11-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-0	1424.32	1382.77	52.33%	47.09%	+24.42	5-7
1983-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 13-3	1448.74	1574.53	35.40%	64.02%	+20.18	6-7
1983-12-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-31	1468.92	1484.67	44.12%	55.30%	-7.63	6-8
1983-12-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 19-13	1461.29	1462.15	46.24%	53.18%	+13.00	7-8
1983-12-18	Green Bay Packers	W 23-21	1474.29	1498.33	49.60%	49.82%	+7.03	8-8
1983-09-04	Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-20	1535.41	1536.23	52.94%	46.48%	-16.70	0-1
1983-09-11	Buffalo Bills	L 6-10	1518.71	1484.93	57.84%	41.58%	-11.53	0-2
1983-09-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1507.18	1458.76	53.32%	46.10%	-16.82	0-3
1983-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-17	1490.36	1451.69	51.92%	47.50%	+11.61	1-3
1983-10-02	Baltimore Colts	L 31-34	1501.97	1411.73	65.46%	33.96%	-11.30	1-4
1983-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1490.67	1541.41	45.77%	53.65%	-14.45	1-5
1983-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1476.22	1456.93	49.13%	50.29%	-12.97	1-6
1983-10-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-21	1463.25	1461.16	53.36%	46.06%	+12.17	2-6
1983-10-30	Green Bay Packers	W 34-14	1475.42	1497.79	49.84%	49.58%	+22.12	3-6
1983-11-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 55-14	1497.54	1341.24	67.93%	31.49%	+20.16	4-6
1983-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 15-20	1517.70	1498.07	49.18%	50.24%	-10.97	4-7
1983-11-20	Houston Oilers	W 38-10	1506.73	1343.94	74.12%	25.30%	+13.39	5-7
1983-11-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-38	1520.12	1604.03	34.78%	64.64%	-17.03	5-8
1983-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-10	1503.09	1563.39	37.92%	61.50%	+22.11	6-8
1983-12-11	Detroit Lions	W 17-9	1525.20	1554.20	48.89%	50.53%	+14.26	7-8
1983-12-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-20	1539.46	1449.16	59.22%	40.20%	-14.47	7-9
1983-09-04	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-27	1456.51	1491.33	48.05%	51.37%	-11.75	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-26	1444.76	1514.64	36.63%	62.79%	+14.00	1-1
1983-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-7	1458.76	1507.18	46.10%	53.32%	+16.81	2-1
1983-09-25	@ San Diego Chargers	W 30-24	1475.57	1526.38	39.22%	60.20%	+14.70	3-1
1983-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-24	1490.27	1482.56	54.16%	45.26%	-20.92	3-2
1983-10-09	New York Jets	W 10-7	1469.35	1566.67	39.23%	60.19%	+10.40	4-2
1983-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-44	1479.75	1555.86	35.80%	63.62%	-18.59	4-3
1983-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-28	1461.16	1463.25	46.06%	53.36%	-12.17	4-4
1983-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 25-19	1448.99	1349.26	66.68%	32.74%	+8.02	5-4
1983-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-35	1457.01	1475.66	43.71%	55.72%	-16.33	5-5
1983-11-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-0	1440.68	1400.97	58.67%	40.75%	+18.20	6-5
1983-11-20	@ New England Patriots	W 30-0	1458.88	1533.38	36.02%	63.40%	+34.62	7-5
1983-11-27	Baltimore Colts	W 41-23	1493.50	1397.68	66.18%	33.24%	+14.10	8-5
1983-12-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-27	1507.60	1468.44	51.99%	47.43%	-23.77	8-6
1983-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 27-34	1483.83	1313.47	69.65%	29.77%	-18.36	8-7
1983-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-17	1465.47	1569.40	38.33%	61.10%	+21.96	9-7
1983-09-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-30	1566.40	1572.58	45.48%	53.94%	+5.38	1-0
1983-09-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-17	1571.78	1448.31	63.72%	35.70%	+14.72	2-0
1983-09-18	New York Giants	W 28-13	1586.50	1496.32	65.46%	33.97%	+13.15	3-0
1983-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1599.65	1474.15	69.86%	29.56%	+2.95	4-0
1983-10-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-24	1602.60	1490.93	62.14%	37.28%	+13.43	5-0
1983-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1616.03	1416.17	77.94%	21.48%	+3.73	6-0
1983-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-7	1619.76	1523.31	66.26%	33.16%	+18.16	7-0
1983-10-23	Los Angeles Raiders	L 38-40	1637.92	1585.29	60.45%	38.97%	-8.53	7-1
1983-10-30	@ New York Giants	W 38-20	1629.39	1464.30	69.01%	30.41%	+12.90	8-1
1983-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1642.29	1492.36	67.13%	32.29%	+8.55	9-1
1983-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-24	1650.84	1477.26	70.03%	29.39%	-6.99	9-2
1983-11-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-21	1643.85	1509.05	70.96%	28.46%	+12.74	10-2
1983-11-24	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-17	1656.59	1462.35	77.39%	22.03%	+9.35	11-2
1983-12-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 35-10	1665.94	1503.89	68.64%	30.78%	+15.39	12-2
1983-12-11	Washington Redskins	L 10-31	1681.33	1690.44	51.75%	47.67%	-23.65	12-3
1983-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-42	1657.68	1578.06	57.74%	41.68%	-28.79	12-4
1983-09-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-10	1459.56	1537.62	35.55%	63.87%	+12.74	1-0
1983-09-11	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-10	1472.30	1422.05	53.58%	45.84%	+12.11	2-0
1983-09-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1484.41	1505.63	50.01%	49.41%	-8.65	2-1
1983-09-25	Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-22	1475.76	1582.14	37.99%	61.43%	-14.70	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-31	1461.06	1452.22	47.63%	51.79%	-19.60	2-3
1983-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	W 26-14	1441.46	1383.35	54.70%	44.72%	+15.47	3-3
1983-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-17	1456.93	1476.22	50.29%	49.13%	+12.97	4-3
1983-10-23	San Diego Chargers	W 14-6	1469.90	1513.93	46.73%	52.69%	+14.86	5-3
1983-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1484.76	1519.54	48.06%	51.36%	+8.88	6-3
1983-11-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-27	1493.64	1514.38	43.41%	56.01%	-12.26	6-4
1983-11-13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-22	1481.38	1582.27	32.60%	66.82%	-4.61	6-5
1983-11-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-27	1476.77	1512.92	47.86%	51.56%	+17.06	7-5
1983-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-31	1493.83	1454.89	51.96%	47.46%	-25.39	7-6
1983-12-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-6	1468.44	1507.60	47.43%	51.99%	+23.76	8-6
1983-12-11	Baltimore Colts	W 21-19	1492.20	1377.37	68.56%	30.86%	+4.37	9-6
1983-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-48	1496.57	1467.53	50.54%	48.89%	-28.08	9-7
1983-09-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 11-0	1497.41	1490.62	47.34%	52.08%	+17.23	1-0
1983-09-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 26-31	1514.64	1444.76	62.79%	36.63%	-14.00	1-1
1983-09-18	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-30	1500.64	1481.49	55.79%	43.64%	-22.25	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1478.39	1483.03	45.70%	53.72%	-7.90	1-3
1983-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-21	1470.49	1470.93	46.30%	53.12%	-15.33	1-4
1983-10-09	Green Bay Packers	W 38-14	1455.16	1528.34	42.59%	56.83%	+27.77	2-4
1983-10-16	Chicago Bears	W 31-17	1482.93	1456.19	56.86%	42.56%	+15.90	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-38	1498.83	1620.35	30.04%	69.38%	-13.77	3-5
1983-10-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-17	1485.06	1446.48	51.91%	47.51%	+21.73	4-5
1983-11-07	New York Giants	W 15-9	1506.79	1451.39	60.83%	38.59%	+9.45	5-5
1983-11-13	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-27	1516.24	1321.08	72.55%	26.88%	-22.87	5-6
1983-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1493.37	1506.53	44.49%	54.93%	+9.49	6-6
1983-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-3	1502.86	1602.48	38.91%	60.51%	+39.09	7-6
1983-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-2	1541.95	1474.40	62.48%	36.94%	+12.25	8-6
1983-12-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 9-17	1554.20	1525.20	50.53%	48.89%	-14.26	8-7
1983-12-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1539.94	1356.36	76.32%	23.10%	+4.00	9-7
1983-09-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 41-38	1527.28	1434.63	59.55%	39.87%	+6.89	1-0
1983-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-25	1534.17	1524.89	54.38%	45.04%	-10.84	1-1
1983-09-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1523.33	1484.62	58.53%	40.89%	+7.07	2-1
1983-09-26	@ New York Giants	L 3-27	1530.40	1483.17	53.15%	46.27%	-25.97	2-2
1983-10-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 55-14	1504.43	1440.08	62.05%	37.38%	+23.91	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-38	1528.34	1455.16	56.83%	42.59%	-27.76	3-3
1983-10-17	Washington Redskins	W 48-47	1500.58	1626.74	35.35%	64.07%	+6.39	4-3
1983-10-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1506.97	1506.37	53.14%	46.28%	-9.18	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-34	1497.79	1475.42	49.58%	49.84%	-22.13	4-5
1983-11-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-21	1475.66	1457.01	55.72%	43.71%	+16.33	5-5
1983-11-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 29-21	1491.99	1481.18	47.91%	51.51%	+14.54	6-5
1983-11-20	Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1506.53	1493.37	54.93%	44.49%	-9.49	6-6
1983-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 41-47	1497.04	1467.41	50.62%	48.80%	-12.37	6-7
1983-12-04	Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1484.67	1468.92	55.30%	44.12%	+7.63	7-7
1983-12-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 12-9	1492.30	1362.39	64.56%	34.86%	+6.03	8-7
1983-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-23	1498.33	1474.29	49.82%	49.60%	-7.03	8-8
1983-09-04	Green Bay Packers	L 38-41	1434.63	1527.28	39.87%	59.55%	-6.90	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 6-20	1427.73	1552.93	29.60%	69.82%	-11.08	0-2
1983-09-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-40	1416.65	1535.74	36.29%	63.14%	-12.56	0-3
1983-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-30	1404.09	1504.17	32.70%	66.72%	-13.48	0-4
1983-10-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1390.61	1534.14	27.45%	71.97%	-7.26	0-5
1983-10-09	Denver Broncos	L 14-26	1383.35	1441.46	44.72%	54.70%	-15.47	0-6
1983-10-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-34	1367.88	1493.14	29.59%	69.83%	-13.24	0-7
1983-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-13	1354.64	1514.16	31.09%	68.33%	-5.38	0-8
1983-10-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 19-25	1349.26	1448.99	32.74%	66.68%	-8.02	0-9
1983-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-55	1341.24	1497.54	31.49%	67.93%	-20.16	0-10
1983-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 27-17	1321.08	1516.24	26.88%	72.55%	+22.86	1-10
1983-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-38	1343.94	1506.73	25.30%	74.12%	-13.39	1-11
1983-11-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-33	1330.55	1358.35	42.42%	57.01%	-12.71	1-12
1983-12-04	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1317.84	1621.06	16.48%	82.94%	-4.37	1-13
1983-12-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-27	1313.47	1483.83	29.77%	69.65%	+18.37	2-13
1983-12-18	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-20	1331.84	1373.01	40.55%	58.87%	-12.80	2-14
1983-09-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1500.90	1476.37	56.55%	42.87%	+8.57	1-0
1983-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 14-17	1509.47	1526.90	50.56%	48.87%	-8.74	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 12-27	1500.73	1581.82	35.15%	64.27%	-13.60	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-14	1487.13	1573.93	34.40%	65.02%	-9.73	1-3
1983-10-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-14	1477.40	1430.28	59.70%	39.72%	+19.44	2-3
1983-10-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-21	1496.84	1590.51	33.52%	65.91%	-3.35	2-4
1983-10-16	New York Giants	W 38-17	1493.49	1485.17	54.25%	45.17%	+20.67	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1514.16	1354.64	68.33%	31.09%	+5.38	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1519.54	1484.76	51.36%	48.06%	-8.87	4-5
1983-11-06	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-28	1510.67	1569.67	44.59%	54.83%	-12.60	4-6
1983-11-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-15	1498.07	1517.70	50.24%	49.18%	+10.98	5-6
1983-11-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-41	1509.05	1643.85	28.46%	70.96%	-12.73	5-7
1983-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 48-51	1496.32	1495.86	46.43%	52.99%	-8.03	5-8
1983-12-04	Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1488.29	1471.82	55.41%	44.02%	-12.36	5-9
1983-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 38-41	1475.93	1460.19	48.62%	50.80%	-8.40	5-10
1983-12-18	Denver Broncos	W 48-17	1467.53	1496.57	48.89%	50.54%	+28.07	6-10
1983-09-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-10	1536.23	1535.41	46.48%	52.94%	+16.70	1-0
1983-09-11	Houston Oilers	W 20-6	1552.93	1427.73	69.82%	29.60%	+11.08	2-0
1983-09-19	Miami Dolphins	W 27-14	1564.01	1592.06	49.03%	50.39%	+18.13	3-0
1983-09-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 22-7	1582.14	1475.76	61.43%	37.99%	+14.70	4-0
1983-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 35-37	1596.84	1607.68	44.82%	54.61%	-6.33	4-1
1983-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-20	1590.51	1496.84	65.91%	33.52%	+3.35	5-1
1983-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 36-38	1593.86	1492.06	60.80%	38.62%	-8.57	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 40-38	1585.29	1637.92	38.97%	60.45%	+8.52	6-2
1983-10-30	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-34	1593.81	1490.24	67.16%	32.26%	-24.14	6-3
1983-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-20	1569.67	1510.67	54.83%	44.59%	+12.60	7-3
1983-11-13	Denver Broncos	W 22-20	1582.27	1481.38	66.82%	32.60%	+4.60	8-3
1983-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1586.87	1501.07	58.60%	40.82%	+7.07	9-3
1983-11-27	New York Giants	W 27-12	1593.94	1460.11	70.85%	28.58%	+11.07	10-3
1983-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	W 42-10	1605.01	1480.28	63.88%	35.54%	+20.09	11-3
1983-12-11	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-34	1625.10	1463.46	74.00%	25.42%	-23.33	11-4
1983-12-18	San Diego Chargers	W 30-14	1601.77	1468.59	70.77%	28.65%	+11.47	12-4
1983-09-04	@ New York Giants	W 16-6	1457.80	1505.93	39.59%	59.84%	+18.87	1-0
1983-09-11	New Orleans Saints	W 30-27	1476.67	1473.99	53.44%	45.98%	+7.95	2-0
1983-09-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-27	1484.62	1523.33	40.89%	58.53%	-7.08	2-1
1983-09-25	@ New York Jets	L 24-27	1477.54	1535.87	38.19%	61.23%	-6.61	2-2
1983-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 21-10	1470.93	1470.49	53.12%	46.30%	+15.33	3-2
1983-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 10-7	1486.26	1580.89	33.39%	66.03%	+11.40	4-2
1983-10-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-21	1497.66	1478.13	55.84%	43.58%	+10.66	5-2
1983-10-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 35-45	1508.32	1588.14	41.66%	57.77%	-13.16	5-3
1983-10-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-30	1495.16	1587.35	33.71%	65.71%	-13.47	5-4
1983-11-06	Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1481.69	1424.75	61.04%	38.38%	+10.14	6-4
1983-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 36-13	1491.83	1478.96	48.21%	51.21%	+24.50	7-4
1983-11-20	Washington Redskins	L 20-42	1516.33	1662.88	32.72%	66.71%	-15.34	7-5
1983-11-27	Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1500.99	1494.01	54.06%	45.37%	+22.19	8-5
1983-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-13	1523.18	1442.18	57.93%	41.49%	-11.55	8-6
1983-12-11	New England Patriots	L 7-21	1511.63	1490.28	56.10%	43.33%	-20.94	8-7
1983-12-18	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-24	1490.69	1470.63	49.25%	50.18%	+7.08	9-7
1983-09-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 12-0	1567.45	1499.94	56.03%	43.39%	+15.01	1-0
1983-09-11	New England Patriots	W 34-24	1582.46	1463.55	69.06%	30.36%	+9.60	2-0
1983-09-19	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-27	1592.06	1564.01	50.39%	49.03%	-18.13	2-1
1983-09-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-6	1573.93	1487.13	65.02%	34.40%	+9.73	3-1
1983-10-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-17	1583.66	1471.19	62.25%	37.17%	-19.62	3-2
1983-10-09	Buffalo Bills	L 35-38	1564.04	1493.45	62.88%	36.54%	-10.86	3-3
1983-10-16	@ New York Jets	W 32-14	1553.18	1556.27	45.92%	53.50%	+22.64	4-3
1983-10-23	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-7	1575.82	1414.18	68.59%	30.83%	+11.53	5-3
1983-10-30	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-14	1587.35	1495.16	65.71%	33.71%	+13.48	6-3
1983-11-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1600.83	1577.23	49.75%	49.67%	+8.59	7-3
1983-11-13	@ New England Patriots	L 6-17	1609.42	1513.55	59.99%	39.43%	-19.84	7-4
1983-11-20	Baltimore Colts	W 37-0	1589.58	1412.13	75.69%	23.74%	+14.45	8-4
1983-11-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-14	1604.03	1520.12	64.64%	34.78%	+17.03	9-4
1983-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-17	1621.06	1317.84	82.94%	16.48%	+4.37	10-4
1983-12-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-24	1625.43	1471.27	73.17%	26.25%	+6.94	11-4
1983-12-16	New York Jets	W 34-14	1632.37	1521.50	68.07%	31.35%	+14.02	12-4
1983-09-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-21	1491.33	1456.51	51.37%	48.05%	+11.75	1-0
1983-09-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-48	1503.08	1510.51	51.99%	47.43%	-28.88	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-16	1474.20	1460.52	48.33%	51.09%	+8.83	2-1
1983-09-25	Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1483.03	1478.39	53.72%	45.70%	+7.90	3-1
1983-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-37	1490.93	1602.60	37.28%	62.14%	-13.43	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-14	1477.50	1471.82	47.18%	52.24%	+15.64	4-2
1983-10-16	Houston Oilers	W 34-14	1493.14	1367.88	69.83%	29.59%	+13.23	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1506.37	1506.97	46.28%	53.14%	+9.18	6-2
1983-10-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 31-41	1515.55	1412.85	60.93%	38.49%	-19.21	6-3
1983-11-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 12-17	1496.34	1385.81	68.03%	31.39%	-15.16	6-4
1983-11-13	Green Bay Packers	L 21-29	1481.18	1491.99	51.51%	47.91%	-14.53	6-5
1983-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1466.65	1615.00	26.90%	72.52%	+12.52	7-5
1983-11-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-17	1479.17	1468.96	47.83%	51.59%	-4.77	7-6
1983-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 2-13	1474.40	1541.95	36.94%	62.48%	-12.25	7-7
1983-12-11	Chicago Bears	L 13-19	1462.15	1461.29	53.18%	46.24%	-12.99	7-8
1983-12-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1449.16	1539.46	40.20%	59.22%	+14.46	8-8
1983-09-04	Baltimore Colts	L 23-29	1478.96	1406.64	63.11%	36.31%	-15.41	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-34	1463.55	1582.46	30.36%	69.06%	-9.60	0-2
1983-09-18	New York Jets	W 23-13	1453.95	1555.00	38.72%	60.70%	+19.14	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-23	1473.09	1548.30	35.92%	63.50%	+14.15	2-2
1983-10-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-33	1487.24	1561.96	42.37%	57.05%	-18.92	2-3
1983-10-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-12	1468.32	1423.03	52.87%	46.55%	-11.79	2-4
1983-10-16	San Diego Chargers	W 37-21	1456.53	1537.00	41.56%	57.86%	+23.07	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-0	1479.60	1524.95	39.97%	59.45%	+33.01	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-24	1512.61	1482.68	50.66%	48.76%	-16.77	4-5
1983-11-06	Buffalo Bills	W 21-7	1495.84	1503.10	52.02%	47.40%	+17.71	5-5
1983-11-13	Miami Dolphins	W 17-6	1513.55	1609.42	39.43%	59.99%	+19.83	6-5
1983-11-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-30	1533.38	1458.88	63.40%	36.02%	-34.62	6-6
1983-11-27	@ New York Jets	L 3-26	1498.76	1522.84	42.94%	56.48%	-20.56	6-7
1983-12-04	New Orleans Saints	W 7-0	1478.20	1473.73	53.70%	45.73%	+12.08	7-7
1983-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-7	1490.28	1511.63	43.33%	56.10%	+20.93	8-7
1983-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-24	1511.21	1498.74	48.15%	51.27%	-20.39	8-8
1983-09-04	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-17	1458.38	1463.92	52.26%	47.16%	+15.61	1-0
1983-09-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-30	1473.99	1476.67	45.98%	53.44%	-7.95	1-1
1983-09-18	Chicago Bears	W 34-31	1466.04	1469.81	52.52%	46.90%	+8.11	2-1
1983-09-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-21	1474.15	1599.65	29.56%	69.86%	-2.96	2-2
1983-10-02	Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1471.19	1583.66	37.17%	62.25%	+19.63	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-17	1490.82	1485.51	47.12%	52.30%	+7.37	4-2
1983-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-32	1498.19	1569.49	42.85%	56.57%	-18.65	4-3
1983-10-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-21	1479.54	1397.90	58.02%	41.40%	+7.16	5-3
1983-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-27	1486.70	1491.95	45.61%	53.81%	-11.15	5-4
1983-11-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-10	1475.55	1499.45	49.62%	49.80%	+20.49	6-4
1983-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-27	1496.04	1568.65	36.27%	63.15%	-18.84	6-5
1983-11-21	New York Jets	L 28-31	1477.20	1514.60	47.68%	51.74%	-8.24	6-6
1983-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-16	1468.96	1479.17	51.59%	47.83%	+4.77	7-6
1983-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 0-7	1473.73	1478.20	45.73%	53.70%	-12.07	7-7
1983-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1461.66	1453.73	47.50%	51.92%	+8.97	8-7
1983-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-26	1470.63	1490.69	50.18%	49.25%	-7.08	8-8
1983-09-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-16	1505.93	1457.80	59.84%	39.59%	-18.86	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-13	1487.07	1490.75	45.84%	53.58%	+9.25	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-28	1496.32	1586.50	33.97%	65.46%	-13.15	1-2
1983-09-26	Green Bay Packers	W 27-3	1483.17	1530.40	46.27%	53.15%	+25.97	2-2
1983-10-02	San Diego Chargers	L 34-41	1509.14	1511.68	52.69%	46.73%	-13.90	2-3
1983-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-17	1495.24	1513.24	50.47%	48.95%	-10.07	2-4
1983-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-38	1485.17	1493.49	45.17%	54.25%	-20.67	2-5
1983-10-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 20-20	1464.50	1412.64	53.81%	45.61%	-0.20	2-5
1983-10-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-38	1464.30	1629.39	30.41%	69.01%	-12.91	2-6
1983-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-15	1451.39	1506.79	38.59%	60.83%	-9.44	2-7
1983-11-13	Washington Redskins	L 17-33	1441.95	1652.82	25.14%	74.28%	-10.06	2-8
1983-11-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-0	1431.89	1474.10	40.40%	59.02%	+28.22	3-8
1983-11-27	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 12-27	1460.11	1593.94	28.58%	70.85%	-11.07	3-9
1983-12-04	St. Louis Cardinals	L 6-10	1449.04	1452.99	52.49%	46.93%	-10.47	3-10
1983-12-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-17	1438.57	1488.50	45.89%	53.53%	-10.25	3-11
1983-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 22-31	1428.32	1714.10	14.30%	85.12%	-4.29	3-12
1983-09-04	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-29	1554.93	1544.73	47.83%	51.59%	+17.83	1-0
1983-09-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-17	1572.76	1467.80	67.34%	32.08%	-17.76	1-1
1983-09-18	@ New England Patriots	L 13-23	1555.00	1453.95	60.70%	38.72%	-19.13	1-2
1983-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1535.87	1477.54	61.23%	38.19%	+6.60	2-2
1983-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-10	1542.47	1517.64	49.93%	49.49%	+24.20	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-10	1566.67	1469.35	60.19%	39.23%	-10.40	3-3
1983-10-16	Miami Dolphins	L 14-32	1556.27	1553.18	53.50%	45.92%	-22.64	3-4
1983-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1533.63	1467.47	62.29%	37.13%	-15.21	3-5
1983-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1518.42	1601.29	34.92%	64.51%	+24.06	4-5
1983-11-06	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1542.48	1409.25	70.78%	28.65%	-12.22	4-6
1983-11-13	Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1530.26	1485.40	59.39%	40.04%	-15.66	4-7
1983-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-28	1514.60	1477.20	51.74%	47.68%	+8.24	5-7
1983-11-27	New England Patriots	W 26-3	1522.84	1498.76	56.48%	42.94%	+20.56	6-7
1983-12-04	@ Baltimore Colts	W 10-6	1543.40	1383.59	68.36%	31.06%	+6.22	7-7
1983-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-34	1549.62	1541.28	54.25%	45.17%	-28.12	7-8
1983-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-34	1521.50	1632.37	31.35%	68.07%	-14.01	7-9
1983-09-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 22-17	1507.95	1522.81	44.24%	55.18%	+12.30	1-0
1983-09-11	Washington Redskins	L 13-23	1520.25	1567.20	46.31%	53.11%	-14.62	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1505.63	1484.41	49.41%	50.01%	+8.64	2-1
1983-09-25	St. Louis Cardinals	L 11-14	1514.27	1418.86	66.13%	33.29%	-11.41	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-24	1502.86	1495.90	47.36%	52.06%	+10.38	3-2
1983-10-09	@ New York Giants	W 17-13	1513.24	1495.24	48.95%	50.47%	+10.07	4-2
1983-10-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1523.31	1619.76	33.16%	66.26%	-18.15	4-3
1983-10-23	Chicago Bears	L 6-7	1505.16	1440.28	62.12%	37.30%	-6.20	4-4
1983-10-30	Baltimore Colts	L 21-22	1498.96	1402.64	66.24%	33.18%	-6.60	4-5
1983-11-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1492.36	1642.29	32.29%	67.13%	-8.54	4-6
1983-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1483.82	1414.60	56.28%	43.15%	-9.72	4-7
1983-11-20	New York Giants	L 0-23	1474.10	1431.89	59.02%	40.40%	-28.22	4-8
1983-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-28	1445.88	1678.22	18.49%	80.93%	-3.70	4-9
1983-12-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 13-9	1442.18	1523.18	41.49%	57.93%	+11.55	5-9
1983-12-11	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1453.73	1461.66	51.92%	47.50%	-8.97	5-10
1983-12-18	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-31	1444.76	1486.79	40.43%	58.99%	-19.79	5-11
1983-09-04	Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1537.62	1459.56	63.87%	35.55%	-12.73	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 25-21	1524.89	1534.17	45.04%	54.38%	+10.85	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	W 40-28	1535.74	1416.65	63.14%	36.29%	+12.56	2-1
1983-09-25	New England Patriots	L 23-28	1548.30	1473.09	63.50%	35.92%	-14.16	2-2
1983-10-02	Houston Oilers	W 17-10	1534.14	1390.61	71.97%	27.45%	+7.27	3-2
1983-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1541.41	1490.67	53.65%	45.77%	+14.45	4-2
1983-10-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 44-17	1555.86	1479.75	63.62%	35.80%	+18.59	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1574.45	1500.64	56.92%	42.50%	+10.40	6-2
1983-10-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-12	1584.85	1390.74	77.38%	22.04%	+4.93	7-2
1983-11-06	San Diego Chargers	W 26-3	1589.78	1493.14	66.28%	33.14%	+15.89	8-2
1983-11-13	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-13	1605.67	1421.47	71.29%	28.13%	+9.33	9-2
1983-11-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1615.00	1466.65	72.52%	26.90%	-12.52	9-3
1983-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-45	1602.48	1502.86	60.51%	38.91%	-39.09	9-4
1983-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1563.39	1503.09	61.50%	37.92%	-22.11	9-5
1983-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 34-7	1541.28	1549.62	45.17%	54.25%	+28.12	10-5
1983-12-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-30	1569.40	1465.47	61.10%	38.33%	-21.97	10-6
1983-09-04	New York Jets	L 29-41	1544.73	1554.93	51.59%	47.83%	-17.83	0-1
1983-09-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1526.90	1509.47	48.87%	50.56%	+8.73	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 31-34	1535.63	1485.56	53.55%	45.87%	-9.25	1-2
1983-09-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-30	1526.38	1475.57	60.20%	39.22%	-14.70	1-3
1983-10-02	@ New York Giants	W 41-34	1511.68	1509.14	46.73%	52.69%	+13.90	2-3
1983-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-21	1525.58	1503.48	56.20%	43.22%	+11.42	3-3
1983-10-16	@ New England Patriots	L 21-37	1537.00	1456.53	57.86%	41.56%	-23.07	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-14	1513.93	1469.90	52.69%	46.73%	-14.87	3-5
1983-10-31	Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1499.06	1634.12	34.19%	65.23%	-5.92	3-6
1983-11-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-26	1493.14	1589.78	33.14%	66.28%	-15.88	3-7
1983-11-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-23	1477.26	1650.84	29.39%	70.03%	+6.98	4-7
1983-11-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-44	1484.24	1433.00	53.72%	45.70%	-29.35	4-8
1983-11-27	Denver Broncos	W 31-7	1454.89	1493.83	47.46%	51.96%	+25.39	5-8
1983-12-01	Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-42	1480.28	1605.01	35.54%	63.88%	-20.09	5-9
1983-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-38	1460.19	1475.93	50.80%	48.62%	+8.40	6-9
1983-12-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-30	1468.59	1601.77	28.65%	70.77%	-11.46	6-10
1983-09-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-22	1522.81	1507.95	55.18%	44.24%	-12.30	0-1
1983-09-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 48-17	1510.51	1503.08	47.43%	51.99%	+28.87	1-1
1983-09-18	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 42-27	1539.38	1433.60	61.35%	38.07%	+14.74	2-1
1983-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-20	1554.12	1503.74	60.14%	39.28%	+7.84	3-1
1983-10-02	@ New England Patriots	W 33-13	1561.96	1487.24	57.05%	42.37%	+18.93	4-1
1983-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-10	1580.89	1486.26	66.03%	33.39%	-11.40	4-2
1983-10-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 32-13	1569.49	1498.19	56.57%	42.85%	+18.65	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 45-35	1588.14	1508.32	57.77%	41.66%	+13.15	6-2
1983-10-30	New York Jets	L 13-27	1601.29	1518.42	64.51%	34.92%	-24.06	6-3
1983-11-06	Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1577.23	1600.83	49.67%	49.75%	-8.58	6-4
1983-11-13	New Orleans Saints	W 27-0	1568.65	1496.04	63.15%	36.27%	+18.83	7-4
1983-11-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-28	1587.48	1454.46	64.97%	34.45%	-12.95	7-5
1983-11-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-13	1574.53	1448.74	64.02%	35.40%	-20.18	7-6
1983-12-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-21	1554.35	1371.06	76.29%	23.13%	+8.66	8-6
1983-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-10	1563.01	1484.17	57.63%	41.79%	+15.05	9-6
1983-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-17	1578.06	1657.68	41.68%	57.74%	+28.79	10-6
1983-09-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-17	1476.37	1500.90	42.87%	56.55%	-8.57	0-1
1983-09-11	@ New York Jets	W 17-10	1467.80	1572.76	32.08%	67.34%	+17.76	1-1
1983-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 34-31	1485.56	1535.63	45.87%	53.55%	+9.25	2-1
1983-09-25	Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1494.81	1595.43	38.78%	60.64%	-12.25	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-9	1482.56	1490.27	45.26%	54.16%	+20.92	3-2
1983-10-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-28	1503.48	1525.58	43.22%	56.20%	-11.42	3-3
1983-10-16	Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-36	1492.06	1593.86	38.62%	60.80%	+8.58	4-3
1983-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-27	1500.64	1574.45	42.50%	56.92%	-10.40	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-21	1490.24	1593.81	32.26%	67.16%	+24.14	5-4
1983-11-06	Denver Broncos	W 27-19	1514.38	1493.64	56.01%	43.41%	+12.26	6-4
1983-11-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-33	1526.64	1419.28	61.56%	37.86%	-13.72	6-5
1983-11-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 27-38	1512.92	1476.77	51.56%	47.86%	-17.06	6-6
1983-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 51-48	1495.86	1496.32	52.99%	46.43%	+8.03	7-6
1983-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-35	1503.89	1665.94	30.78%	68.64%	-15.39	7-7
1983-12-11	@ New York Giants	W 17-12	1488.50	1438.57	53.53%	45.89%	+10.24	8-7
1983-12-18	New England Patriots	W 24-6	1498.74	1511.21	51.27%	48.15%	+20.39	9-7
1983-09-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-28	1463.92	1458.38	47.16%	52.26%	-15.61	0-1
1983-09-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-34	1448.31	1571.78	35.70%	63.72%	-14.71	0-2
1983-09-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-42	1433.60	1539.38	38.07%	61.35%	-14.74	0-3
1983-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-11	1418.86	1514.27	33.29%	66.13%	+11.42	1-3
1983-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-38	1430.28	1477.40	39.72%	59.70%	-19.44	1-4
1983-10-09	Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1410.84	1614.01	25.98%	73.44%	-12.74	1-5
1983-10-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-27	1398.10	1412.44	44.32%	55.10%	+14.54	2-5
1983-10-24	New York Giants	T 20-20	1412.64	1464.50	45.61%	53.81%	+0.21	2-5
1983-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-31	1412.85	1515.55	38.49%	60.93%	+19.21	3-5
1983-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-45	1432.06	1640.04	20.70%	78.72%	-12.78	3-6
1983-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-28	1419.28	1526.64	37.86%	61.56%	+13.72	4-6
1983-11-20	San Diego Chargers	W 44-14	1433.00	1484.24	45.70%	53.72%	+29.35	5-6
1983-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-35	1462.35	1656.59	22.03%	77.39%	-9.36	5-7
1983-12-04	@ New York Giants	W 10-6	1452.99	1449.04	46.93%	52.49%	+10.47	6-7
1983-12-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-24	1463.46	1625.10	25.42%	74.00%	+23.33	7-7
1983-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-7	1486.79	1444.76	58.99%	40.43%	+19.78	8-7
1983-09-04	Detroit Lions	L 0-11	1490.62	1497.41	52.08%	47.34%	-17.24	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1473.38	1456.95	48.72%	50.70%	-12.86	0-2
1983-09-18	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-19	1460.52	1474.20	51.09%	48.33%	-8.83	0-3
1983-09-25	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-23	1451.69	1490.36	47.50%	51.92%	-11.61	0-4
1983-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-55	1440.08	1504.43	37.38%	62.05%	-23.91	0-5
1983-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1416.17	1616.03	21.48%	77.94%	-3.73	0-6
1983-10-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-34	1412.44	1398.10	55.10%	44.32%	-14.54	0-7
1983-10-23	New Orleans Saints	L 21-24	1397.90	1479.54	41.40%	58.02%	-7.16	0-8
1983-10-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-17	1390.74	1584.85	22.04%	77.38%	-4.93	0-9
1983-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-12	1385.81	1496.34	31.39%	68.03%	+15.16	1-9
1983-11-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-20	1400.97	1440.68	40.75%	58.67%	-18.20	1-10
1983-11-20	Chicago Bears	L 0-27	1382.77	1424.32	47.09%	52.33%	-24.42	1-11
1983-11-27	Houston Oilers	W 33-24	1358.35	1330.55	57.01%	42.42%	+12.71	2-11
1983-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-35	1371.06	1554.35	23.13%	76.29%	-8.67	2-12
1983-12-12	Green Bay Packers	L 9-12	1362.39	1492.30	34.86%	64.56%	-6.03	2-13
1983-12-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1356.36	1539.94	23.10%	76.32%	-4.01	2-14
1983-09-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 30-31	1572.58	1566.40	53.94%	45.48%	-5.38	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-13	1567.20	1520.25	53.11%	46.31%	+14.62	1-1
1983-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-12	1581.82	1500.73	64.27%	35.15%	+13.61	2-1
1983-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-17	1595.43	1494.81	60.64%	38.78%	+12.25	3-1
1983-10-02	Los Angeles Raiders	W 37-35	1607.68	1596.84	54.61%	44.82%	+6.33	4-1
1983-10-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-14	1614.01	1410.84	73.44%	25.98%	+12.73	5-1
1983-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 47-48	1626.74	1500.58	64.07%	35.35%	-6.39	5-2
1983-10-23	Detroit Lions	W 38-17	1620.35	1498.83	69.38%	30.04%	+13.77	6-2
1983-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-24	1634.12	1499.06	65.23%	34.19%	+5.92	7-2
1983-11-06	St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-7	1640.04	1432.06	78.72%	20.70%	+12.78	8-2
1983-11-13	@ New York Giants	W 33-17	1652.82	1441.95	74.28%	25.14%	+10.06	9-2
1983-11-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 42-20	1662.88	1516.33	66.71%	32.72%	+15.34	10-2
1983-11-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1678.22	1445.88	80.93%	18.49%	+3.70	11-2
1983-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-21	1681.92	1479.78	78.16%	21.26%	+8.52	12-2
1983-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-10	1690.44	1681.33	47.67%	51.75%	+23.66	13-2
1983-12-17	New York Giants	W 31-22	1714.10	1428.32	85.12%	14.30%	+4.29	14-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1983-12-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-24	1628.89	1497.77	70.87%	29.13%	-18.60	0-1
1983-12-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-31	1468.49	1519.13	39.52%	60.48%	-19.20	0-1
1983-12-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 23-24	1543.94	1606.85	37.84%	62.16%	-3.75	0-1
1984-01-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-10	1613.24	1547.43	62.55%	37.45%	+19.65	1-0
1984-01-08	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-14	1632.89	1556.19	64.01%	35.99%	+14.29	2-0
1984-01-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-9	1647.18	1737.71	37.26%	62.74%	+33.51	3-0
1983-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-17	1497.77	1628.89	29.13%	70.87%	+18.60	1-0
1984-01-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-51	1516.37	1718.39	21.47%	78.53%	-14.12	1-1
1983-12-31	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-27	1646.39	1538.33	68.05%	31.95%	-17.86	0-1
1984-01-01	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-38	1547.43	1613.24	37.45%	62.55%	-19.65	0-1
1983-12-31	Detroit Lions	W 24-23	1606.85	1543.94	62.16%	37.84%	+3.75	1-0
1984-01-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1610.60	1732.52	30.24%	69.76%	-5.20	1-1
1983-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 31-7	1519.13	1468.49	60.48%	39.52%	+19.20	1-0
1983-12-31	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-20	1538.33	1646.39	31.95%	68.05%	+17.86	2-0
1984-01-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-30	1556.19	1632.89	35.99%	64.01%	-14.28	2-1
1984-01-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 51-7	1718.39	1516.37	78.53%	21.47%	+14.13	1-0
1984-01-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1732.52	1610.60	69.76%	30.24%	+5.19	2-0
1984-01-22	Los Angeles Raiders	L 9-38	1737.71	1647.18	62.74%	37.26%	-33.51	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1983-12-11	25.42%	St. Louis Cardinals	1463.46	34	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1625.10	24
2	1983-11-13	26.88%	@ Houston Oilers	1321.08	27	Detroit Lions	1516.24	17
3	1983-11-20	26.90%	Minnesota Vikings	1466.65	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1615.00	14
4	1983-11-06	28.65%	Baltimore Colts	1409.25	17	@ New York Jets	1542.48	14
5	1983-12-26 *	29.13%	Los Angeles Rams	1497.77	24	@ Dallas Cowboys	1628.89	17
6	1983-11-13	29.39%	@ San Diego Chargers	1477.26	24	Dallas Cowboys	1650.84	23
7	1983-12-11	29.77%	@ Houston Oilers	1313.47	34	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1483.83	27
8	1983-11-06	31.39%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1385.81	17	@ Minnesota Vikings	1496.34	12
9	1983-12-31 *	31.95%	Seattle Seahawks	1538.33	27	@ Miami Dolphins	1646.39	20
10	1983-09-11	32.08%	Seattle Seahawks	1467.80	17	@ New York Jets	1572.76	10
11	1983-10-30	32.26%	Seattle Seahawks	1490.24	34	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1593.81	21
12	1983-10-30	33.18%	Baltimore Colts	1402.64	22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1498.96	21
13	1983-09-25	33.29%	St. Louis Cardinals	1418.86	14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1514.27	11
14	1983-10-09	33.39%	Los Angeles Rams	1486.26	10	@ San Francisco 49ers	1580.89	7
15	1983-10-02	33.96%	Baltimore Colts	1411.73	34	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1501.97	31
16	1983-11-20	34.45%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1454.46	28	San Francisco 49ers	1587.48	24
17	1983-10-30	34.92%	New York Jets	1518.42	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1601.29	13
18	1983-10-17	35.35%	@ Green Bay Packers	1500.58	48	Washington Redskins	1626.74	47
19	1983-11-27	35.40%	@ Chicago Bears	1448.74	13	San Francisco 49ers	1574.53	3
20	1983-09-04	35.55%	Denver Broncos	1459.56	14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1537.62	10
21	1983-09-25	35.92%	New England Patriots	1473.09	28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1548.30	23
22	1983-11-20	36.02%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1458.88	30	@ New England Patriots	1533.38	0
23	1983-09-04	36.31%	Baltimore Colts	1406.64	29	@ New England Patriots	1478.96	23
24	1983-10-09	36.54%	Buffalo Bills	1493.45	38	@ Miami Dolphins	1564.04	35
25	1983-09-11	36.63%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1444.76	31	@ Detroit Lions	1514.64	26

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1983-11-24	39.09	@ Detroit Lions	45	1502.86	38.91%	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1602.48	60.51%
2	1983-11-20	34.62	Cleveland Browns (1st)	30	1458.88	36.02%	@ New England Patriots	0	1533.38	63.40%
3	1984-01-22 *	33.51	Los Angeles Raiders	38	1647.18	37.26%	@ Washington Redskins	9	1737.71	62.74%
4	1983-10-23	33.01	New England Patriots	31	1479.60	39.97%	@ Buffalo Bills	0	1524.95	59.45%
5	1983-11-20	29.35	@ St. Louis Cardinals	44	1433.00	45.70%	San Diego Chargers	14	1484.24	53.72%
6	1983-09-08	28.88	San Francisco 49ers	48	1510.51	47.43%	@ Minnesota Vikings	17	1503.08	51.99%
7	1983-12-19	28.79	@ San Francisco 49ers	42	1578.06	41.68%	Dallas Cowboys	17	1657.68	57.74%
8	1983-11-20	28.22	New York Giants	23	1431.89	40.40%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1474.10	59.02%
9	1983-12-10	28.12	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1541.28	45.17%	@ New York Jets	7	1549.62	54.25%
10	1983-12-18	28.08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	48	1467.53	48.89%	Denver Broncos	17	1496.57	50.54%
11	1983-10-09	27.77	@ Detroit Lions	38	1455.16	42.59%	Green Bay Packers	14	1528.34	56.83%
12	1983-09-26	25.97	@ New York Giants	27	1483.17	46.27%	Green Bay Packers	3	1530.40	53.15%
13	1983-11-27	25.39	@ San Diego Chargers	31	1454.89	47.46%	Denver Broncos	7	1493.83	51.96%
14	1983-11-14	24.50	Los Angeles Rams	36	1491.83	48.21%	@ Atlanta Falcons	13	1478.96	51.21%
15	1983-11-20	24.42	Chicago Bears	27	1424.32	52.33%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	1382.77	47.09%
16	1983-10-03	24.20	New York Jets	34	1542.47	49.93%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1517.64	49.49%
17	1983-10-30	24.14	Seattle Seahawks	34	1490.24	32.26%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	21	1593.81	67.16%
18	1983-10-30	24.06	New York Jets	27	1518.42	34.92%	@ San Francisco 49ers	13	1601.29	64.51%
19	1983-10-02	23.91	@ Green Bay Packers	55	1504.43	62.05%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1440.08	37.38%
20	1983-12-04	23.77	@ Denver Broncos	27	1468.44	47.43%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	1507.60	51.99%
21	1983-12-11	23.66	Washington Redskins	31	1690.44	47.67%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1681.33	51.75%
22	1983-12-11	23.33	St. Louis Cardinals	34	1463.46	25.42%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	24	1625.10	74.00%
23	1983-10-16	23.07	@ New England Patriots	37	1456.53	41.56%	San Diego Chargers	21	1537.00	57.86%
24	1983-11-13	22.87	@ Houston Oilers	27	1321.08	26.88%	Detroit Lions	17	1516.24	72.55%
25	1983-10-16	22.64	Miami Dolphins	32	1553.18	45.92%	@ New York Jets	14	1556.27	53.50%