1971 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Dallas Cowboys

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Miami Dolphins

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Philadelphia Eagles

2.37 wins above expected

6 wins · 4.13 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cincinnati Bengals

3.50 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.50 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	9	5	0	.643	—	285	273	+12	7.46	+1.54
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	8	0	.429	3	246	292	-46	5.57	+0.43
3	Houston Oilers	4	9	1	.321	4.5	251	330	-79	4.93	-0.43
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	10	0	.286	5	284	265	+19	7.50	-3.50

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	10	3	1	.750	—	315	174	+141	8.93	+1.57
2	Baltimore Colts Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	0.5	313	140	+173	9.73	+0.27
3	New York Jets	6	8	0	.429	4.5	212	299	-87	5.82	+0.18
4	New England Patriots	6	8	0	.429	4.5	238	325	-87	4.69	+1.31
5	Buffalo Bills	1	13	0	.071	9.5	184	394	-210	3.45	-2.45

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	10	3	1	.750	—	302	208	+94	8.77	+1.73
2	Oakland Raiders	8	4	2	.643	1.5	344	278	+66	9.01	-0.01
3	San Diego Chargers	6	8	0	.429	4.5	311	341	-30	7.25	-1.25
4	Denver Broncos	4	9	1	.321	6	203	275	-72	5.49	-0.99

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	11	3	0	.786	—	245	139	+106	10.29	+0.71
2	Detroit Lions	7	6	1	.536	3.5	341	286	+55	9.23	-1.73
3	Chicago Bears	6	8	0	.429	5	185	276	-91	6.04	-0.04
4	Green Bay Packers	4	8	2	.357	6	274	298	-24	5.37	-0.37

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	3	0	.786	—	406	222	+184	9.85	+1.15
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	9	4	1	.679	1.5	276	190	+86	8.15	+1.35
3	Philadelphia Eagles	6	7	1	.464	4.5	221	302	-81	4.13	+2.37
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	6.5	231	279	-48	7.22	-2.72
5	New York Giants	4	10	0	.286	7	228	362	-134	6.00	-2.00

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	9	5	0	.643	—	300	216	+84	8.70	+0.30
2	Los Angeles Rams	8	5	1	.607	0.5	313	260	+53	8.76	-0.26
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	6	1	.536	1.5	274	277	-3	5.88	+1.62
4	New Orleans Saints	4	8	2	.357	4	266	347	-81	3.76	+1.24

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Miami Dolphins 27

Kansas City Chiefs 24

Dec 25

Baltimore Colts 20

Cleveland Browns (1st) 3

Dec 26

Conference Championship

Miami Dolphins 21

Baltimore Colts 0

Jan 2

NFC

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 20

Minnesota Vikings 12

Dec 25

San Francisco 49ers 24

Washington Redskins 20

Dec 26

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 14

San Francisco 49ers 3

Jan 2

Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys 24

Miami Dolphins 3

Jan 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1708	11	10.29	+0.71	82.88%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1698	11	9.85	+1.15	88.77%	3	7	8	10	11	12	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1696	10	9.73	+0.27	74.71%	3	7	8	9	11	12	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1637	10.5	8.77	+1.73	88.91%	1	6	7	8	10	11	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1626	8.5	8.76	-0.26	51.43%	2	6	7	8	10	11	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1616	9	8.70	+0.30	74.54%	2	5	7	8	10	11	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1610	10.5	8.93	+1.57	87.67%	2	6	7	9	10	11	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1610	7.5	9.23	-1.73	21.75%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1593	9.5	8.15	+1.35	84.26%	2	5	7	8	9	11	13
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1570	9	9.01	-0.01	68.44%	2	6	8	9	10	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1514	9	7.46	+1.54	91.36%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1496	7.5	5.88	+1.62	87.37%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1471	6	7.25	-1.25	41.66%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1465	6.5	4.13	+2.37	94.89%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1445	6	5.82	+0.18	72.95%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1438	5	5.37	-0.37	62.11%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1435	4.5	7.22	-2.72	9.42%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1431	4	7.50	-3.50	7.36%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1416	6	6.04	-0.04	68.64%	0	3	5	6	7	9	11
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1403	4.5	5.49	-0.99	36.75%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1394	6	4.69	+1.31	90.76%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1388	6	5.57	+0.43	78.29%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1387	4.5	4.93	-0.43	49.92%	0	2	3	5	6	7	11
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1366	4	6.00	-2.00	26.48%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1357	5	3.76	+1.24	90.71%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1232	1	3.45	-2.45	14.12%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (2.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.2 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	3-0 (2.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.10%	1.92%	2.47%	1.65%	2.75%	0.27%	0.27%	10.44%
7–13	1.92%	3.30%	4.12%	5.77%	3.57%	—	0.55%	19.23%
14–20	2.47%	4.12%	10.44%	6.87%	1.92%	1.92%	0.55%	28.30%
21–27	1.65%	5.77%	6.87%	2.20%	2.75%	1.10%	0.55%	20.88%
28–34	2.75%	3.57%	1.92%	2.75%	1.10%	0.55%	0.55%	13.19%
35–41	0.27%	—	1.92%	1.10%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	4.95%
42+	0.27%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	—	3.02%
Total	10.44%	19.23%	28.30%	20.88%	13.19%	4.95%	3.02%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.36	19.36	+0.00
SD	10.50	10.50	15.32
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	52	52	+43
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.57	19.79	-0.21
SD	10.10	8.82	12.66
CV	0.52	0.45	—
Max	38	41	+22
Min	3	6	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	35.71%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.36	10.00	+12.36
SD	10.94	7.79	14.39
CV	0.49	0.78	—
Max	43	21	+43
Min	3	0	-7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	35.71%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.14	28.14	-15.00
SD	12.76	9.57	12.54
CV	0.97	0.34	—
Max	37	49	+7
Min	0	19	-43

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	28.57%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.21	19.71	-6.50
SD	10.64	7.83	14.15
CV	0.80	0.40	—
Max	35	34	+21
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.29	18.93	+1.36
SD	9.62	10.06	13.70
CV	0.47	0.53	—
Max	37	35	+31
Min	6	0	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.36	19.50	+0.86
SD	10.52	9.66	15.81
CV	0.52	0.50	—
Max	37	34	+31
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
Total	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.00	15.86	+13.14
SD	14.08	9.25	15.10
CV	0.49	0.58	—
Max	52	37	+42
Min	13	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.50	19.64	-5.14
SD	6.53	12.07	14.26
CV	0.45	0.61	—
Max	27	45	+27
Min	3	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.36	20.43	+3.93
SD	9.32	10.16	13.45
CV	0.38	0.50	—
Max	41	38	+27
Min	10	3	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	28.57%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.57	21.29	-1.71
SD	10.87	10.48	11.91
CV	0.56	0.49	—
Max	40	42	+21
Min	0	3	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.93	23.57	-5.64
SD	11.53	11.35	15.39
CV	0.64	0.48	—
Max	49	41	+26
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	14.86	+6.71
SD	7.75	7.23	10.08
CV	0.36	0.49	—
Max	38	32	+22
Min	10	3	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.36	18.57	+3.79
SD	7.61	9.36	9.99
CV	0.34	0.50	—
Max	45	38	+17
Min	14	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	12.43	+10.07
SD	10.91	8.47	17.09
CV	0.48	0.68	—
Max	41	34	+38
Min	3	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	28.57%	—	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	57.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	9.93	+7.57
SD	7.41	8.25	10.20
CV	0.42	0.83	—
Max	29	30	+19
Min	3	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	23.21	-6.21
SD	11.34	12.70	18.59
CV	0.67	0.55	—
Max	38	44	+21
Min	3	0	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	24.79	-5.79
SD	6.94	8.97	11.05
CV	0.37	0.36	—
Max	29	45	+10
Min	6	13	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	—	—	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.29	25.86	-9.57
SD	11.70	9.35	13.11
CV	0.72	0.36	—
Max	42	42	+18
Min	3	17	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	14.29%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.14	21.36	-6.21
SD	9.53	14.09	17.02
CV	0.63	0.66	—
Max	35	52	+14
Min	0	6	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.57	19.86	+4.71
SD	10.46	9.22	15.36
CV	0.43	0.46	—
Max	41	37	+34
Min	6	0	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	35.71%	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.79	21.57	-5.79
SD	12.06	11.41	17.32
CV	0.76	0.53	—
Max	41	42	+17
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.57	20.86	-3.29
SD	5.89	8.87	12.62
CV	0.34	0.43	—
Max	26	38	+17
Min	3	9	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	—	35.71%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.21	24.36	-2.14
SD	14.60	11.82	20.15
CV	0.66	0.49	—
Max	49	49	+28
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.43	15.43	+6.00
SD	8.84	9.09	12.35
CV	0.41	0.59	—
Max	38	27	+28
Min	6	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	19.93	-3.43
SD	7.37	8.30	12.07
CV	0.45	0.42	—
Max	28	37	+17
Min	0	7	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	35.71%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.71	13.57	+6.14
SD	9.24	7.53	11.15
CV	0.47	0.55	—
Max	38	27	+27
Min	0	0	-13

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	6.5	4.13	+2.37
2	Kansas City Chiefs	10.5	8.77	+1.73
3	Atlanta Falcons	7.5	5.88	+1.62
4	Miami Dolphins	10.5	8.93	+1.57
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	7.46	+1.54

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cincinnati Bengals	4	7.50	-3.50
2	St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	7.22	-2.72
3	Buffalo Bills	1	3.45	-2.45
4	New York Giants	4	6.00	-2.00
5	Detroit Lions	7.5	9.23	-1.73

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Miami Dolphins	8	Oct 10 – Nov 29	1 in 68
2	Washington Redskins	5	Sep 19 – Oct 17	1 in 59
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Nov 21 – Dec 19	1 in 46
4	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Dec 5 – Dec 19	1 in 38
5	Dallas Cowboys	7	Nov 7 – Dec 18	1 in 22

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	7	Sep 26 – Nov 7	1 in 190
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	Oct 24 – Nov 14	1 in 36
3	Detroit Lions	3	Dec 5 – Dec 19	1 in 28
4	San Diego Chargers	4	Sep 26 – Oct 17	1 in 25
5	Buffalo Bills	10	Sep 19 – Nov 21	1 in 24

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cincinnati Bengals	42.96%	32.86%	16.67%	7.51%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	42.12%	32.92%	17.09%	7.87%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.41%	21.10%	37.26%	32.23%
Houston Oilers	5.51%	13.12%	28.98%	52.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Baltimore Colts	61.50%	32.47%	5.26%	0.66%	0.11%
Miami Dolphins	35.60%	51.01%	10.92%	2.18%	0.29%
New York Jets	2.48%	11.80%	48.89%	27.00%	9.83%
New England Patriots	0.35%	3.85%	25.89%	43.96%	25.95%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.87%	9.04%	26.20%	63.82%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	45.24%	33.41%	16.60%	4.75%
Kansas City Chiefs	39.35%	34.73%	19.97%	5.95%
San Diego Chargers	13.00%	24.30%	40.80%	21.90%
Denver Broncos	2.41%	7.56%	22.63%	67.40%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	64.57%	30.16%	4.57%	0.70%
Detroit Lions	32.70%	53.29%	11.31%	2.70%
Chicago Bears	1.90%	10.63%	49.70%	37.77%
Green Bay Packers	0.83%	5.92%	34.42%	58.83%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	66.06%	23.16%	8.03%	2.46%	0.29%
Washington Redskins	20.19%	38.65%	26.32%	12.11%	2.73%
St. Louis Cardinals	9.90%	24.30%	33.84%	24.07%	7.89%
New York Giants	3.46%	11.92%	24.29%	39.63%	20.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.39%	1.97%	7.52%	21.73%	68.39%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	49.09%	39.25%	10.58%	1.08%
San Francisco 49ers	45.97%	41.27%	11.43%	1.33%
Atlanta Falcons	4.57%	16.84%	59.05%	19.54%
New Orleans Saints	0.37%	2.64%	18.94%	78.05%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Baltimore Colts	34.21%	21.50%	14.71%	11.36%	8.15%	4.49%	2.78%	1.47%	0.66%	0.34%	0.21%	0.09%	0.03%
Oakland Raiders	19.28%	18.49%	16.44%	13.13%	11.26%	7.37%	6.11%	3.56%	2.18%	1.32%	0.57%	0.27%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	17.17%	16.62%	16.26%	15.55%	12.75%	8.22%	5.59%	3.47%	2.06%	1.21%	0.71%	0.26%	0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.15%	17.78%	14.70%	13.69%	12.25%	9.10%	6.76%	4.76%	2.89%	1.71%	0.85%	0.29%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.53%	8.18%	11.62%	11.84%	11.92%	13.70%	10.36%	8.76%	7.51%	5.10%	3.34%	2.38%	0.76%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.48%	7.69%	10.72%	11.76%	12.17%	13.69%	11.58%	8.85%	7.35%	5.12%	3.57%	2.30%	0.72%
San Diego Chargers	3.47%	6.14%	7.52%	9.88%	11.91%	12.81%	13.18%	10.67%	9.03%	6.61%	4.91%	2.92%	0.95%
New York Jets	0.69%	1.08%	2.32%	3.81%	5.26%	7.56%	11.54%	13.93%	14.33%	12.81%	11.94%	8.41%	6.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.32%	0.86%	2.31%	3.46%	4.78%	7.95%	9.84%	12.40%	13.83%	14.42%	12.20%	12.52%	5.11%
Denver Broncos	0.52%	1.03%	1.76%	2.78%	4.27%	6.34%	8.67%	11.17%	12.89%	15.52%	15.37%	13.57%	6.11%
Houston Oilers	0.14%	0.44%	1.16%	1.76%	3.12%	4.76%	6.86%	9.05%	11.25%	13.99%	16.55%	19.03%	11.89%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.18%	0.44%	0.86%	1.86%	3.30%	5.26%	8.88%	11.05%	13.88%	17.78%	17.89%	18.58%
Buffalo Bills	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.12%	0.30%	0.71%	1.47%	3.03%	4.97%	7.97%	12.00%	20.07%	49.31%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Minnesota Vikings	35.17%	22.44%	15.39%	10.42%	7.03%	4.69%	2.42%	1.24%	0.79%	0.23%	0.12%	0.03%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	23.32%	22.91%	17.58%	12.17%	9.46%	5.91%	4.03%	2.42%	1.16%	0.67%	0.26%	0.05%	0.06%
Detroit Lions	15.90%	13.88%	15.88%	16.04%	13.46%	9.65%	6.35%	4.14%	2.48%	1.37%	0.56%	0.22%	0.07%
Los Angeles Rams	9.00%	13.93%	14.86%	15.00%	13.55%	12.34%	8.48%	5.46%	3.86%	1.94%	1.09%	0.39%	0.10%
San Francisco 49ers	8.97%	12.42%	14.84%	14.48%	14.16%	13.12%	8.44%	5.58%	4.10%	2.28%	1.01%	0.47%	0.13%
Washington Redskins	4.31%	7.60%	9.87%	13.17%	14.72%	14.11%	12.36%	9.11%	6.42%	4.50%	2.22%	1.05%	0.56%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.86%	3.75%	5.32%	7.45%	10.23%	12.73%	14.04%	12.73%	10.60%	9.14%	6.24%	3.91%	2.00%
Chicago Bears	0.47%	0.83%	1.80%	3.09%	4.60%	6.84%	10.97%	15.55%	14.86%	14.32%	13.64%	8.73%	4.30%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%	0.67%	1.86%	2.53%	4.39%	6.85%	10.26%	13.65%	16.51%	15.33%	12.29%	9.48%	5.80%
New York Giants	0.40%	1.06%	1.79%	3.37%	4.96%	6.92%	10.78%	11.92%	13.50%	14.65%	13.01%	10.37%	7.27%
Green Bay Packers	0.19%	0.42%	0.55%	1.67%	2.50%	4.73%	7.28%	11.08%	12.88%	16.04%	18.86%	14.93%	8.87%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.06%	0.14%	0.38%	0.68%	1.30%	2.70%	3.98%	6.98%	10.57%	15.10%	23.89%	34.19%
New Orleans Saints	—	0.03%	0.12%	0.23%	0.26%	0.81%	1.89%	3.14%	5.86%	8.96%	15.60%	26.48%	36.62%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Minnesota Vikings	24.21%	16.19%	12.71%	9.52%	7.79%	6.06%	5.31%	4.35%	3.56%	2.72%	2.18%	1.48%	1.24%	0.88%	0.59%	0.45%	0.27%	0.21%	0.10%	0.06%	0.07%	0.02%	—	0.02%	0.01%	—
Dallas Cowboys	15.47%	13.02%	12.49%	10.50%	9.19%	6.95%	6.95%	5.10%	4.62%	3.37%	2.74%	2.52%	2.17%	1.27%	1.26%	0.83%	0.47%	0.34%	0.35%	0.16%	0.13%	0.02%	0.02%	—	0.06%	—
Baltimore Colts	14.39%	14.29%	10.86%	11.00%	8.54%	7.79%	6.29%	5.74%	4.92%	4.29%	2.84%	2.58%	1.75%	1.46%	0.97%	0.74%	0.47%	0.43%	0.20%	0.14%	0.14%	0.10%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%	—
Detroit Lions	9.82%	8.45%	8.61%	8.01%	9.10%	7.72%	7.99%	6.51%	6.59%	5.38%	4.83%	3.77%	3.20%	2.51%	2.20%	1.42%	1.12%	0.97%	0.65%	0.45%	0.33%	0.15%	0.09%	0.08%	0.04%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	6.89%	8.77%	8.38%	8.88%	7.95%	8.93%	7.27%	6.95%	5.93%	6.05%	4.59%	3.98%	3.26%	3.06%	2.29%	1.97%	1.33%	1.18%	0.83%	0.58%	0.38%	0.25%	0.18%	0.09%	0.02%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	5.79%	8.12%	7.42%	8.81%	7.49%	8.49%	7.61%	8.03%	6.60%	6.40%	5.12%	4.62%	3.36%	3.01%	2.36%	1.99%	1.14%	1.07%	0.82%	0.61%	0.44%	0.35%	0.21%	0.09%	0.02%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.59%	6.90%	7.18%	8.66%	7.65%	7.49%	7.17%	7.04%	6.30%	6.59%	5.21%	4.88%	3.94%	3.72%	2.91%	2.36%	1.99%	1.33%	0.97%	0.86%	0.62%	0.35%	0.12%	0.07%	0.09%	0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	5.42%	6.16%	8.28%	7.00%	8.38%	6.47%	7.59%	7.49%	6.76%	6.53%	5.66%	4.92%	4.19%	3.63%	3.13%	2.17%	1.77%	1.38%	0.96%	0.76%	0.52%	0.40%	0.22%	0.13%	0.07%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	5.45%	5.81%	7.31%	6.54%	7.87%	7.37%	7.67%	6.68%	7.42%	6.31%	6.19%	5.58%	4.15%	3.45%	2.80%	2.37%	2.10%	1.45%	1.18%	0.90%	0.57%	0.39%	0.24%	0.07%	0.08%	0.05%
Washington Redskins	2.29%	3.12%	4.68%	4.54%	5.76%	5.95%	6.95%	6.65%	7.19%	6.94%	7.18%	6.56%	6.43%	4.90%	4.75%	3.62%	3.17%	2.67%	2.05%	1.50%	1.24%	0.64%	0.64%	0.27%	0.22%	0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.20%	2.21%	2.82%	3.75%	4.08%	5.89%	5.37%	6.38%	5.60%	6.51%	6.34%	7.16%	5.71%	5.72%	5.20%	4.65%	4.07%	4.14%	3.07%	2.84%	2.02%	1.94%	1.43%	1.14%	0.46%	0.30%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.05%	2.03%	2.69%	3.82%	4.01%	5.11%	5.19%	6.28%	5.76%	6.56%	6.37%	7.06%	6.17%	6.46%	5.03%	5.04%	4.26%	4.08%	3.03%	2.86%	2.25%	1.75%	1.19%	1.14%	0.50%	0.31%
San Diego Chargers	0.79%	1.65%	2.21%	2.98%	3.27%	4.23%	4.06%	5.09%	5.64%	6.16%	5.92%	6.68%	6.28%	6.89%	5.81%	5.72%	5.15%	4.71%	4.30%	3.35%	2.63%	2.39%	1.72%	1.34%	0.67%	0.36%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.92%	1.51%	1.74%	2.35%	2.98%	3.59%	4.24%	4.51%	5.45%	5.75%	6.41%	6.59%	6.97%	5.87%	6.64%	5.86%	5.27%	4.67%	4.38%	3.73%	2.96%	2.62%	1.90%	1.63%	0.90%	0.56%
Chicago Bears	0.13%	0.23%	0.53%	0.63%	1.02%	1.20%	1.65%	2.03%	2.40%	2.89%	4.08%	4.15%	5.63%	6.05%	7.35%	7.07%	7.42%	6.44%	6.96%	6.94%	6.43%	5.76%	5.05%	3.89%	2.51%	1.56%
New York Giants	0.14%	0.32%	0.61%	0.63%	1.04%	1.23%	1.63%	1.90%	2.78%	2.78%	4.18%	4.12%	5.78%	5.51%	5.99%	5.95%	6.78%	6.80%	6.98%	6.46%	6.61%	5.86%	5.63%	4.06%	4.10%	2.13%
Atlanta Falcons	0.15%	0.31%	0.32%	0.51%	0.95%	1.08%	1.48%	1.66%	2.39%	2.70%	3.79%	3.88%	5.47%	5.28%	6.82%	6.91%	7.68%	7.19%	7.54%	7.38%	6.24%	5.55%	4.96%	4.31%	3.22%	2.23%
New York Jets	0.08%	0.36%	0.33%	0.55%	0.69%	1.10%	1.40%	1.99%	2.36%	2.71%	3.33%	3.95%	4.78%	5.91%	6.14%	7.42%	7.33%	7.00%	6.82%	7.08%	6.83%	5.98%	5.07%	4.55%	3.53%	2.71%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%	0.16%	0.17%	0.39%	0.60%	1.13%	1.03%	1.65%	2.05%	2.43%	3.01%	3.92%	4.40%	5.08%	5.21%	6.49%	6.55%	7.60%	7.44%	7.78%	7.41%	6.42%	6.33%	6.00%	4.09%	2.61%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.21%	0.31%	0.41%	0.65%	0.78%	1.10%	1.41%	1.81%	2.19%	2.81%	3.32%	3.74%	4.74%	4.90%	6.28%	6.44%	6.90%	7.48%	7.62%	6.93%	7.80%	7.21%	6.82%	4.83%	3.24%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.15%	0.18%	0.23%	0.39%	0.58%	0.83%	0.83%	1.59%	1.75%	2.59%	2.88%	3.70%	4.33%	5.50%	5.28%	6.95%	6.89%	7.64%	7.57%	8.42%	8.14%	7.42%	7.09%	5.08%	3.92%
Houston Oilers	0.02%	0.02%	0.10%	0.14%	0.34%	0.55%	0.59%	0.84%	1.09%	1.34%	1.94%	2.26%	2.88%	3.70%	4.13%	4.75%	5.07%	6.03%	6.73%	7.71%	8.37%	8.97%	9.45%	8.87%	7.30%	6.81%
New England Patriots	—	—	0.05%	0.06%	0.16%	0.10%	0.23%	0.43%	0.68%	0.95%	1.40%	1.61%	2.02%	3.08%	3.19%	4.44%	4.92%	6.15%	6.90%	7.81%	8.26%	9.82%	9.38%	9.34%	10.28%	8.74%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.04%	0.14%	0.22%	0.29%	0.26%	0.39%	0.64%	0.88%	1.27%	1.59%	2.12%	2.89%	3.57%	4.08%	4.86%	5.71%	7.56%	8.49%	11.08%	12.56%	15.10%	16.17%
New Orleans Saints	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%	0.13%	0.14%	0.13%	0.20%	0.49%	0.47%	0.92%	1.05%	1.67%	1.86%	2.81%	3.40%	4.16%	5.15%	7.22%	8.39%	10.90%	13.71%	17.29%	19.76%
Buffalo Bills	—	—	—	—	0.02%	—	0.05%	0.03%	0.12%	0.11%	0.16%	0.18%	0.59%	0.85%	1.04%	1.47%	1.90%	2.89%	3.60%	3.99%	5.42%	7.45%	9.54%	12.70%	19.51%	28.38%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	34.21%	20.47%	6.82%	16.68%	21.82%
Oakland Raiders	19.28%	18.67%	7.29%	17.08%	37.68%
Miami Dolphins	17.17%	13.42%	5.01%	24.09%	40.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.15%	17.71%	6.49%	16.97%	43.68%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.53%	9.86%	28.57%	3.28%	53.76%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.48%	9.27%	28.37%	3.37%	54.51%
San Diego Chargers	3.47%	6.45%	3.08%	9.67%	77.33%
New York Jets	0.69%	0.98%	0.81%	3.71%	93.81%
Denver Broncos	0.52%	1.13%	0.76%	2.55%	95.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.32%	1.24%	7.85%	1.16%	89.43%
Houston Oilers	0.14%	0.62%	4.75%	0.54%	93.95%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.17%	0.14%	0.82%	98.83%
Buffalo Bills	—	0.01%	0.06%	0.08%	99.85%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	35.17%	19.84%	9.56%	17.70%	17.73%
Dallas Cowboys	23.32%	25.38%	17.36%	9.16%	24.78%
Detroit Lions	15.90%	10.53%	6.27%	26.52%	40.78%
Los Angeles Rams	9.00%	15.23%	24.86%	8.14%	42.77%
San Francisco 49ers	8.97%	13.40%	23.60%	9.18%	44.85%
Washington Redskins	4.31%	8.16%	7.72%	12.39%	67.42%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.86%	4.19%	3.85%	7.07%	83.03%
Chicago Bears	0.47%	0.74%	0.69%	3.48%	94.62%
New York Giants	0.40%	1.23%	1.83%	2.73%	93.81%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%	0.85%	3.34%	1.64%	93.79%
Green Bay Packers	0.19%	0.32%	0.32%	1.62%	97.55%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.05%	0.31%	0.26%	99.35%
New Orleans Saints	—	0.08%	0.29%	0.11%	99.52%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	78.18%	53.96%	37.41%	19.45%
Minnesota Vikings	82.27%	50.17%	31.52%	19.15%
Dallas Cowboys	75.22%	41.10%	25.58%	15.67%
Kansas City Chiefs	56.32%	30.53%	17.21%	7.92%
Miami Dolphins	59.69%	35.49%	17.04%	7.37%
Los Angeles Rams	57.23%	31.27%	12.57%	6.62%
Detroit Lions	59.22%	26.93%	11.85%	5.86%
San Francisco 49ers	55.15%	29.18%	11.58%	5.78%
Oakland Raiders	62.32%	28.06%	13.50%	5.07%
Washington Redskins	32.58%	13.07%	5.15%	2.53%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.49%	19.81%	6.57%	2.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	46.24%	15.66%	3.61%	0.74%
San Diego Chargers	22.67%	7.74%	2.63%	0.62%
New York Jets	6.19%	2.25%	0.68%	0.22%
Atlanta Falcons	6.21%	2.27%	0.56%	0.22%
St. Louis Cardinals	16.97%	3.22%	0.64%	0.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.57%	3.04%	0.63%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	5.38%	1.13%	0.30%	0.12%
Houston Oilers	6.05%	1.68%	0.33%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	4.96%	1.39%	0.25%	0.06%
New York Giants	6.19%	0.95%	0.15%	0.04%
New England Patriots	1.17%	0.37%	0.12%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.65%	0.13%	0.04%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	2.45%	0.44%	0.04%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.48%	0.14%	0.02%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	0.02%	0.02%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			7.55%	6.75%	1.20%	0.97%	13.56%				16.71%	1.63%	5.59%
Buffalo Bills			0.01%								0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.88%	0.01%			0.73%		2.49%	3.57%	0.25%	1.02%	3.50%		2.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.82%	0.04%			0.81%		2.95%	4.74%	0.25%	1.09%	4.14%		2.97%
Denver Broncos	0.17%		0.44%	0.38%		0.08%		0.15%		0.03%		0.14%
Houston Oilers	0.19%	0.01%			0.11%		0.25%	0.45%	0.05%	0.10%	0.34%		0.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.01%	0.04%	6.16%	5.26%		1.01%		6.74%	0.09%	0.57%		1.65%
Miami Dolphins			7.98%	6.52%	0.47%	1.09%	5.86%				8.62%	1.69%	3.26%
New England Patriots			0.12%	0.08%		0.03%	0.06%				0.03%	0.03%	0.02%
New York Jets			0.64%	0.56%	0.05%	0.12%	0.19%				0.37%	0.21%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders	8.37%	0.02%	5.62%	4.39%		0.80%		6.58%	0.11%	0.72%		1.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.26%	0.01%			0.20%		0.43%	0.73%	0.04%	0.24%	0.54%		0.59%
San Diego Chargers	1.52%		2.06%	1.74%		0.27%		1.24%	0.01%	0.17%		0.73%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.17%	0.23%	0.63%	0.06%		0.54%		0.09%			0.27%	0.28%
Chicago Bears	0.06%		0.18%			0.31%			0.02%		0.30%	0.13%	0.13%
Dallas Cowboys	0.83%	0.82%		10.92%	0.39%	6.26%	15.99%	0.04%			5.85%
Detroit Lions	0.96%		6.76%			6.65%		0.07%	0.68%	0.12%	6.31%	2.35%	3.03%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%		0.07%			0.08%		0.01%	0.03%		0.18%	0.03%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams		1.54%	4.85%	9.08%	0.63%		5.68%		1.51%	0.18%		3.58%	4.22%
Minnesota Vikings	1.47%		17.78%			8.58%		0.17%	1.56%	0.13%	8.94%	4.22%	7.32%
New Orleans Saints		0.01%		0.05%	0.01%		0.01%					0.03%	0.03%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.04%		0.14%		0.25%	0.25%	0.01%			0.25%
Philadelphia Eagles				0.03%		0.03%	0.02%				0.05%
San Francisco 49ers		1.41%	4.25%	8.07%	0.81%		5.58%		1.35%	0.09%		3.14%	4.48%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.09%	0.07%		0.64%	0.03%	0.93%	0.83%	0.02%			0.61%
Washington Redskins	0.50%	0.19%		2.73%	0.08%	2.87%	3.20%	0.02%			3.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		5.20%	6.06%	0.53%	0.58%	5.41%	10.75%	0.08%	0.62%	5.16%	1.04%	1.98%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%		0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.22%		0.19%	0.03%	0.03%	0.57%	0.69%	0.04%	0.02%	0.57%	0.03%	0.22%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.03%	0.29%		0.05%	0.02%	1.13%	1.26%		0.03%	1.34%	0.05%	0.37%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.04%	0.02%			0.02%	0.06%			0.04%
Houston Oilers	0.10%					0.05%	0.08%	0.01%	0.01%	0.07%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.33%	2.31%	2.45%	0.19%	0.27%		2.79%	0.07%	0.26%	4.22%	0.45%	0.87%
Miami Dolphins	6.38%	1.94%	2.27%	0.19%	0.19%	2.13%		0.02%	0.36%	2.38%	0.32%	0.86%
New England Patriots	0.03%					0.02%	0.02%			0.05%
New York Jets	0.16%	0.06%	0.09%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.13%			0.11%	0.02%	0.02%
Oakland Raiders	2.45%	1.90%	1.85%	0.13%	0.17%	3.34%	2.22%	0.03%	0.22%		0.44%	0.75%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.20%	0.01%				0.15%	0.07%		0.01%	0.16%		0.03%
San Diego Chargers	0.57%	0.30%	0.30%	0.01%	0.07%	0.44%	0.38%		0.04%	0.46%	0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.09%	0.13%		0.11%	0.12%				0.05%	0.02%	0.04%
Chicago Bears			0.03%	0.07%		0.07%	0.06%		0.01%		0.03%	0.01%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.59%	0.17%		3.65%	0.10%	6.12%	5.43%	0.02%	0.23%	0.01%	5.98%	0.73%	2.55%
Detroit Lions	0.19%	0.11%	1.93%		0.04%	2.10%	4.40%		0.14%		1.84%	0.34%	0.76%
Green Bay Packers			0.02%	0.01%			0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	0.13%	3.38%	1.77%	0.09%		4.14%		0.08%	0.02%	1.48%	0.38%	1.03%
Minnesota Vikings	0.65%	0.28%	5.18%	6.86%	0.08%	7.83%		0.08%	0.22%	0.04%	7.19%	0.61%	2.50%
New Orleans Saints			0.02%
New York Giants			0.03%	0.01%		0.06%	0.01%				0.01%		0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.01%	0.02%			0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.08%	0.10%	3.30%	1.87%	0.07%	1.38%	3.33%		0.09%	0.02%		0.39%	0.95%
St. Louis Cardinals			0.17%	0.09%		0.13%	0.09%		0.01%		0.11%		0.04%
Washington Redskins	0.13%	0.04%	1.36%	0.60%	0.02%	0.90%	1.05%	0.02%	0.02%		0.91%	0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.07%				0.03%						0.03%		0.03%					0.05%		0.01%
Baltimore Colts	0.11%			0.06%			4.51%		2.67%	0.01%			2.64%		5.63%		0.06%						2.45%	0.13%	1.18%
Chicago Bears		0.04%				0.01%						0.01%		0.03%					0.02%			0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%			0.01%			0.18%		0.08%	0.01%			0.07%		0.20%								0.12%	0.03%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.03%			0.01%			0.46%		0.29%				0.22%		0.56%								0.32%	0.04%	0.13%
Dallas Cowboys		5.05%			0.78%	1.26%		0.07%			0.05%	2.64%		2.66%		0.01%		0.11%	2.38%		0.14%	0.52%
Denver Broncos									0.02%				0.01%		0.01%								0.02%
Detroit Lions		1.79%	0.01%		0.26%	0.40%		0.02%			0.03%	1.03%		1.08%				0.06%	0.87%		0.05%	0.26%
Green Bay Packers		0.01%																				0.01%
Houston Oilers									0.01%				0.01%		0.02%								0.01%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.07%			0.04%			1.83%		0.95%				1.06%		2.30%								1.16%	0.05%	0.46%
Los Angeles Rams		2.15%			0.38%	0.52%		0.01%			0.01%	1.05%		1.11%				0.03%	1.05%		0.03%	0.28%
Miami Dolphins	0.06%			0.04%			1.64%		1.02%				1.11%		2.08%		0.02%			0.01%			0.91%	0.09%	0.39%
Minnesota Vikings		6.09%			1.07%	1.49%		0.06%			0.13%	3.09%		3.31%		0.07%		0.12%	2.82%		0.20%	0.70%
New England Patriots							0.01%								0.01%								0.01%
New Orleans Saints		0.02%
New York Giants														0.02%					0.02%
New York Jets				0.01%			0.04%		0.05%				0.03%		0.04%								0.03%		0.02%
Oakland Raiders	0.05%			0.01%			1.03%		0.83%				0.73%		1.33%		0.01%						0.63%	0.07%	0.38%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.01%			0.01%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.01%						0.05%		0.01%						0.02%		0.01%						0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers							0.16%		0.06%				0.07%		0.17%		0.01%						0.13%	0.01%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		1.87%	0.01%		0.26%	0.53%		0.03%			0.04%	0.97%		1.02%		0.01%		0.09%	0.73%		0.05%	0.17%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.04%			0.02%	0.03%						0.06%		0.03%				0.01%	0.02%
Washington Redskins		0.82%			0.09%	0.23%					0.01%	0.41%		0.38%				0.04%	0.47%		0.02%	0.06%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Minnesota Vikings	57.54%	40.46%	23.16%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Colts	68.07%	35.35%	18.88%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	42.46%	26.08%	15.33%	Won Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs	60.64%	34.21%	14.90%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers	60.59%	21.62%	10.50%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	39.36%	19.77%	8.23%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	39.41%	11.84%	5.44%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.93%	10.67%	3.56%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Colts		68.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.93%
Kansas City Chiefs				60.64%
Miami Dolphins			39.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		42.46%
Minnesota Vikings	57.54%
San Francisco 49ers				60.59%
Washington Redskins			39.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Colts			20.80%	14.55%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			5.63%	5.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.26%	13.95%
Miami Dolphins	12.46%	7.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			14.74%	11.34%
Minnesota Vikings			24.23%	16.23%
San Francisco 49ers	11.37%	10.25%
Washington Redskins	5.01%	6.83%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			4.43%			7.28%	4.36%	2.81%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			0.78%			1.30%	0.93%	0.55%
Dallas Cowboys	4.93%	1.93%		5.34%	3.13%
Kansas City Chiefs			3.65%			5.52%	3.85%	1.88%
Miami Dolphins			1.89%			3.20%	1.98%	1.16%
Minnesota Vikings	6.91%	2.89%		8.47%	4.89%
San Francisco 49ers	2.96%	1.50%		3.66%	2.38%
Washington Redskins	1.67%	0.79%		1.84%	1.14%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Minnesota Vikings 23.16% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.89%

Win Prob

70.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.57%

Win Prob

60.54%

Baltimore Colts 18.88% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

58.84%

Win Prob

50.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

38.56%

Win Prob

51.30%

Dallas Cowboys 15.33% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.46%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.52%

Win Prob

56.45%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.83%

Win Prob

59.40%

Kansas City Chiefs 14.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.64%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

59.22%

Win Prob

49.34%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

37.05%

Win Prob

39.46%

San Francisco 49ers 10.50% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.59%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

52.59%

Win Prob

43.55%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.86%

Win Prob

48.74%

Miami Dolphins 8.23% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.36%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

63.02%

Win Prob

46.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

38.88%

Win Prob

39.56%

Washington Redskins 5.44% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.41%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

57.69%

Win Prob

29.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

33.82%

Win Prob

49.46%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 3.56% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

52.76%

Win Prob

28.75%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

36.52%

Win Prob

31.03%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1971-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1443.69	1577.69	35.70%	59.13%	+15.46	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 20-20	1459.15	1589.29	24.19%	70.67%	+1.72	1-0
1971-10-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 38-41	1460.87	1638.19	19.56%	75.32%	-5.32	1-1
1971-10-10	St. Louis Cardinals	L 9-26	1455.55	1508.34	47.01%	47.81%	-29.50	1-2
1971-10-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-24	1426.05	1626.76	27.43%	67.42%	-12.07	1-3
1971-10-24	New Orleans Saints	W 28-6	1413.98	1369.16	60.54%	34.29%	+24.83	2-3
1971-10-31	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-14	1438.81	1489.51	33.52%	61.31%	+38.13	3-3
1971-11-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 9-6	1476.94	1430.47	46.90%	47.91%	+12.62	4-3
1971-11-14	New York Giants	L 17-21	1489.56	1456.43	59.01%	35.82%	-17.81	4-4
1971-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 28-21	1471.75	1465.53	55.36%	39.46%	+16.02	5-4
1971-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1487.77	1704.19	16.26%	78.64%	-10.55	5-5
1971-12-05	Oakland Raiders	W 24-13	1477.22	1595.47	37.81%	57.02%	+28.57	6-5
1971-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-24	1505.79	1580.99	30.45%	64.39%	-21.64	6-6
1971-12-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-20	1484.15	1368.35	56.68%	38.14%	+11.73	7-6
1971-09-19	New York Jets	W 22-0	1602.82	1484.33	69.41%	25.44%	+18.61	1-0
1971-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-14	1621.43	1539.91	65.15%	29.69%	-9.83	1-1
1971-10-03	@ New England Patriots	W 23-3	1611.60	1363.61	72.52%	22.35%	+15.64	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 43-0	1627.24	1321.64	77.78%	17.12%	+17.67	3-1
1971-10-17	@ New York Giants	W 31-7	1644.91	1494.59	61.26%	33.57%	+25.41	4-1
1971-10-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-10	1670.32	1686.74	38.06%	56.76%	-15.48	4-2
1971-10-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-21	1654.84	1417.48	80.23%	14.69%	+8.35	5-2
1971-11-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1663.19	1628.71	59.19%	35.64%	+14.54	6-2
1971-11-14	@ New York Jets	W 14-13	1677.73	1412.57	74.19%	20.68%	+3.24	7-2
1971-11-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1680.97	1630.58	47.47%	47.35%	-12.51	7-3
1971-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	W 37-14	1668.46	1631.36	45.56%	49.26%	+35.88	8-3
1971-12-05	Buffalo Bills	W 24-0	1704.34	1256.03	90.24%	4.88%	+3.80	9-3
1971-12-11	Miami Dolphins	W 14-3	1708.14	1606.99	67.47%	27.38%	+14.13	10-3
1971-12-19	New England Patriots	L 17-21	1722.27	1367.47	86.95%	8.06%	-26.30	10-4
1971-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 37-49	1357.63	1606.48	22.26%	72.60%	-12.07	0-1
1971-09-26	Miami Dolphins	L 14-29	1345.56	1531.53	29.15%	65.69%	-17.53	0-2
1971-10-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-19	1328.03	1656.73	9.24%	85.75%	-6.39	0-3
1971-10-10	Baltimore Colts	L 0-43	1321.64	1627.24	17.12%	77.78%	-17.67	0-4
1971-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 17-28	1303.97	1432.53	24.36%	70.50%	-12.61	0-5
1971-10-23	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-20	1291.36	1450.97	21.21%	73.66%	-13.70	0-6
1971-10-31	St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-28	1277.66	1491.59	25.94%	68.91%	-9.04	0-7
1971-11-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-34	1268.62	1617.82	8.30%	86.71%	-7.68	0-8
1971-11-14	@ New England Patriots	L 33-38	1260.94	1364.61	27.09%	67.75%	-9.43	0-9
1971-11-21	New York Jets	L 7-20	1251.51	1409.33	32.61%	62.22%	-18.19	0-10
1971-11-28	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1233.32	1350.01	38.02%	56.80%	+22.71	1-10
1971-12-05	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-24	1256.03	1704.34	4.88%	90.24%	-3.80	1-11
1971-12-12	Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1252.23	1333.19	42.98%	51.84%	-16.10	1-12
1971-12-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-22	1236.13	1632.88	6.45%	88.61%	-3.70	1-13
1971-09-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-15	1484.57	1393.71	66.27%	28.58%	+6.28	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1490.85	1676.61	18.81%	76.08%	+19.88	2-0
1971-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-17	1510.73	1587.57	30.25%	64.59%	-17.56	2-1
1971-10-10	New Orleans Saints	W 35-14	1493.17	1348.58	72.17%	22.70%	+16.27	3-1
1971-10-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-13	1509.44	1580.13	31.01%	63.83%	-17.33	3-2
1971-10-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-23	1492.11	1663.48	20.10%	74.77%	+25.22	4-2
1971-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-19	1517.33	1606.23	41.86%	52.96%	+16.04	5-2
1971-11-07	Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1533.37	1452.89	65.03%	29.81%	-16.99	5-3
1971-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 16-15	1516.38	1594.55	43.38%	51.44%	+7.80	6-3
1971-11-21	Detroit Lions	L 3-28	1524.18	1620.83	40.78%	54.04%	-31.25	6-4
1971-11-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-34	1492.93	1643.09	22.14%	72.73%	-19.29	6-5
1971-12-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-6	1473.64	1429.14	46.62%	48.20%	-12.30	6-6
1971-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-31	1461.34	1422.42	45.82%	49.00%	-32.02	6-7
1971-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1429.32	1694.29	20.70%	74.18%	-13.37	6-8
1971-09-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-14	1511.51	1405.27	68.05%	26.80%	+20.01	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1531.52	1387.43	60.46%	34.37%	-30.26	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1501.26	1473.01	44.30%	50.52%	-11.71	1-2
1971-10-10	Miami Dolphins	L 13-23	1489.55	1528.85	48.94%	45.88%	-23.52	1-3
1971-10-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1466.03	1534.11	44.81%	50.01%	-11.85	1-4
1971-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-31	1454.18	1616.04	21.00%	73.87%	-6.58	1-5
1971-10-31	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-10	1447.60	1331.84	56.68%	38.15%	-17.13	1-6
1971-11-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-9	1430.47	1476.94	47.91%	46.90%	-12.62	1-7
1971-11-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-10	1417.85	1441.62	37.07%	57.76%	+32.64	2-7
1971-11-21	Houston Oilers	W 28-13	1450.49	1323.31	70.35%	24.50%	+14.82	3-7
1971-11-28	San Diego Chargers	W 31-0	1465.31	1469.05	53.98%	40.84%	+34.85	4-7
1971-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-31	1500.16	1458.90	46.16%	48.66%	-14.07	4-8
1971-12-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-21	1486.09	1370.40	69.11%	25.75%	-29.46	4-9
1971-12-19	@ New York Jets	L 21-35	1456.63	1419.30	45.59%	49.23%	-26.01	4-10
1971-09-19	Houston Oilers	W 31-0	1517.71	1400.45	69.28%	25.58%	+22.20	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 14-13	1539.91	1621.43	29.69%	65.15%	+9.83	2-0
1971-10-04	Oakland Raiders	L 20-34	1549.74	1561.84	52.81%	42.01%	-29.93	2-1
1971-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-17	1519.81	1433.63	65.71%	29.13%	+14.30	3-1
1971-10-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1534.11	1466.03	50.01%	44.81%	+11.85	4-1
1971-10-24	Denver Broncos	L 0-27	1545.96	1402.43	72.06%	22.80%	-56.45	4-2
1971-10-31	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-31	1489.51	1438.81	61.31%	33.52%	-38.13	4-3
1971-11-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-26	1451.38	1409.12	46.30%	48.52%	-29.09	4-4
1971-11-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-13	1422.29	1599.67	19.55%	75.33%	-7.52	4-5
1971-11-21	New England Patriots	W 27-7	1414.77	1374.04	60.01%	34.82%	+24.03	5-5
1971-11-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 37-24	1438.80	1308.50	58.64%	36.19%	+20.10	6-5
1971-12-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-27	1458.90	1500.16	48.66%	46.16%	+14.07	7-5
1971-12-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-17	1472.97	1381.04	53.38%	41.44%	+12.70	8-5
1971-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-13	1485.67	1621.78	23.56%	71.30%	+28.43	9-5
1971-09-19	@ Buffalo Bills	W 49-37	1606.48	1357.63	72.60%	22.26%	+12.07	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-7	1618.55	1385.26	71.01%	23.85%	+22.05	2-0
1971-10-03	Washington Redskins	L 16-20	1640.60	1555.13	65.63%	29.22%	-19.79	2-1
1971-10-11	New York Giants	W 20-13	1620.81	1505.21	69.09%	25.76%	+10.62	3-1
1971-10-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-24	1631.43	1332.31	77.24%	17.66%	-36.85	3-2
1971-10-24	New England Patriots	W 44-21	1594.58	1367.00	79.51%	15.41%	+11.65	4-2
1971-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 19-23	1606.23	1517.33	52.96%	41.86%	-16.04	4-3
1971-11-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-13	1590.19	1500.63	53.05%	41.77%	+11.08	5-3
1971-11-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-7	1601.27	1370.82	79.72%	15.19%	+8.64	6-3
1971-11-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-0	1609.91	1586.75	43.57%	51.25%	+28.01	7-3
1971-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-21	1637.92	1658.30	51.64%	43.18%	+17.47	8-3
1971-12-04	New York Jets	W 52-10	1655.39	1419.18	80.15%	14.77%	+15.10	9-3
1971-12-12	@ New York Giants	W 42-14	1670.49	1410.11	73.74%	21.14%	+17.52	10-3
1971-12-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-12	1688.01	1444.49	80.68%	14.25%	+9.80	11-3
1971-09-19	Miami Dolphins	T 10-10	1451.01	1531.85	43.00%	51.82%	+0.32	0-0
1971-09-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-34	1451.33	1443.98	41.34%	53.48%	-29.03	0-1
1971-10-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-16	1422.30	1543.19	37.45%	57.37%	-20.78	0-2
1971-10-10	Oakland Raiders	L 16-27	1401.52	1591.77	28.64%	66.20%	-14.76	0-3
1971-10-17	San Diego Chargers	W 20-16	1386.76	1466.64	43.14%	51.68%	+15.67	1-3
1971-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-0	1402.43	1545.96	22.80%	72.06%	+56.45	2-3
1971-10-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-17	1458.88	1360.20	54.32%	40.50%	-8.22	2-4
1971-11-07	Detroit Lions	L 20-24	1450.66	1636.91	29.12%	65.73%	-9.04	2-5
1971-11-14	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1441.62	1417.85	57.76%	37.07%	-32.64	2-6
1971-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-28	1408.98	1607.19	17.74%	77.16%	-11.84	2-7
1971-11-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 22-10	1397.14	1447.19	33.61%	61.22%	+32.00	3-7
1971-12-05	Chicago Bears	W 6-3	1429.14	1473.64	48.20%	46.62%	+12.30	4-7
1971-12-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-45	1441.44	1479.82	35.13%	59.70%	-28.68	4-8
1971-12-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-21	1412.76	1559.79	22.45%	72.42%	-9.93	4-9
1971-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-16	1632.25	1663.44	50.10%	44.72%	-13.17	0-1
1971-09-26	@ New England Patriots	W 34-7	1619.08	1382.72	71.33%	23.53%	+19.11	1-1
1971-10-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-38	1638.19	1460.87	75.32%	19.56%	+5.32	2-1
1971-10-10	Green Bay Packers	W 31-28	1643.51	1484.72	73.58%	21.29%	+5.78	3-1
1971-10-17	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-7	1649.29	1359.32	76.45%	18.44%	+14.19	4-1
1971-10-24	Chicago Bears	L 23-28	1663.48	1492.11	74.77%	20.10%	-25.22	4-2
1971-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	T 14-14	1638.26	1451.54	65.78%	29.06%	-1.35	4-2
1971-11-07	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-20	1636.91	1450.66	65.73%	29.12%	+9.05	5-2
1971-11-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-21	1645.96	1614.18	58.83%	36.00%	-25.13	5-3
1971-11-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-3	1620.83	1524.18	54.04%	40.78%	+31.26	6-3
1971-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 32-21	1652.09	1619.03	59.00%	35.83%	+18.32	7-3
1971-12-05	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1670.41	1391.57	83.01%	11.94%	-21.72	7-4
1971-12-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-29	1648.69	1669.13	37.52%	57.31%	-25.16	7-5
1971-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1623.53	1602.63	43.25%	51.57%	-13.23	7-6
1971-09-19	New York Giants	L 40-42	1453.29	1533.64	43.07%	51.75%	-9.31	0-1
1971-09-26	Denver Broncos	W 34-13	1443.98	1451.33	53.48%	41.34%	+29.03	1-1
1971-10-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1473.01	1501.26	50.52%	44.30%	+11.71	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-31	1484.72	1643.51	21.29%	73.58%	-5.77	2-2
1971-10-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1478.95	1672.16	28.30%	66.55%	-14.59	2-3
1971-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-30	1464.36	1638.83	19.82%	75.06%	-12.82	2-4
1971-11-01	Detroit Lions	T 14-14	1451.54	1638.26	29.06%	65.78%	+1.35	2-4
1971-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1452.89	1533.37	29.81%	65.03%	+16.98	3-4
1971-11-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-3	1469.87	1690.97	15.90%	79.01%	-4.34	3-5
1971-11-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-28	1465.53	1471.75	39.46%	55.36%	-16.03	3-6
1971-11-28	New Orleans Saints	L 21-29	1449.50	1361.90	65.88%	28.96%	-28.09	3-7
1971-12-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 16-16	1421.41	1470.97	33.67%	61.16%	+1.01	3-7
1971-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 31-10	1422.42	1461.34	49.00%	45.82%	+32.01	4-7
1971-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-27	1454.43	1592.86	23.32%	71.54%	-16.71	4-8
1971-09-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-31	1400.45	1517.71	25.58%	69.28%	-22.20	0-1
1971-09-26	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-20	1378.25	1532.98	33.00%	61.83%	-10.21	0-2
1971-10-03	New Orleans Saints	T 13-13	1368.04	1347.86	57.27%	37.55%	-0.72	0-2
1971-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-22	1367.32	1574.92	16.96%	77.94%	-8.00	0-3
1971-10-17	Detroit Lions	L 7-31	1359.32	1649.29	18.44%	76.45%	-14.20	0-4
1971-10-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-23	1345.12	1404.19	32.46%	62.38%	-13.28	0-5
1971-10-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-6	1331.84	1447.60	38.15%	56.68%	+17.13	1-5
1971-11-07	@ New England Patriots	L 20-28	1348.97	1347.00	40.59%	54.23%	-17.61	1-6
1971-11-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-41	1331.36	1619.93	11.37%	83.59%	-8.05	1-7
1971-11-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-28	1323.31	1450.49	24.50%	70.35%	-14.81	1-8
1971-11-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-37	1308.50	1438.80	36.19%	58.64%	-20.10	1-9
1971-12-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-3	1288.40	1415.19	36.66%	58.17%	+44.79	2-9
1971-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1333.19	1252.23	51.84%	42.98%	+16.10	3-9
1971-12-19	San Diego Chargers	W 49-33	1349.29	1508.49	32.44%	62.40%	+37.65	4-9
1971-09-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1549.81	1541.21	41.52%	53.30%	-16.83	0-1
1971-09-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-16	1532.98	1378.25	61.83%	33.00%	+10.21	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-3	1543.19	1422.30	57.37%	37.45%	+20.78	2-1
1971-10-10	San Diego Chargers	W 31-10	1563.97	1488.23	64.45%	30.39%	+21.59	3-1
1971-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-16	1585.56	1419.32	74.29%	20.58%	+15.14	4-1
1971-10-24	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1600.70	1606.58	53.68%	41.14%	+16.68	5-1
1971-10-31	@ Oakland Raiders	T 20-20	1617.38	1622.62	39.59%	55.23%	+0.57	5-1
1971-11-07	@ New York Jets	L 10-13	1617.95	1394.30	69.98%	24.88%	-18.28	5-2
1971-11-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-7	1599.67	1422.29	75.33%	19.55%	+7.52	6-2
1971-11-21	Denver Broncos	W 28-10	1607.19	1408.98	77.16%	17.74%	+11.84	7-2
1971-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-32	1619.03	1652.09	35.83%	59.00%	-18.32	7-3
1971-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-17	1600.71	1606.06	39.58%	55.24%	+25.06	8-3
1971-12-12	Oakland Raiders	W 16-14	1625.77	1566.90	62.35%	32.48%	+7.11	9-3
1971-12-19	Buffalo Bills	W 22-9	1632.88	1236.13	88.61%	6.45%	+3.69	10-3
1971-09-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1611.74	1343.87	74.45%	20.43%	-22.45	0-1
1971-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	T 20-20	1589.29	1459.15	70.67%	24.19%	-1.72	0-1
1971-10-03	Chicago Bears	W 17-3	1587.57	1510.73	64.59%	30.25%	+17.56	1-1
1971-10-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-13	1605.13	1601.76	40.79%	54.03%	+21.63	2-1
1971-10-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-16	1626.76	1426.05	67.42%	27.43%	+12.07	3-1
1971-10-24	Green Bay Packers	W 30-13	1638.83	1464.36	75.06%	19.82%	+12.82	4-1
1971-10-31	Miami Dolphins	L 14-20	1651.65	1594.88	62.08%	32.75%	-22.94	4-2
1971-11-08	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-24	1628.71	1663.19	35.64%	59.19%	-14.53	4-3
1971-11-14	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-13	1614.18	1645.96	36.00%	58.83%	+25.12	5-3
1971-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-6	1639.30	1616.72	57.60%	37.23%	+19.00	6-3
1971-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-28	1658.30	1637.92	43.18%	51.64%	-17.46	6-4
1971-12-05	New Orleans Saints	W 45-28	1640.84	1389.99	81.19%	13.74%	+8.94	7-4
1971-12-13	Washington Redskins	L 24-38	1649.78	1586.27	62.94%	31.90%	-35.51	7-5
1971-12-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-14	1614.27	1399.86	68.97%	25.88%	+12.10	8-5
1971-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	T 10-10	1531.85	1451.01	51.82%	43.00%	-0.32	0-0
1971-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 29-14	1531.53	1345.56	65.69%	29.15%	+17.54	1-0
1971-10-03	New York Jets	L 10-14	1549.07	1451.31	67.07%	27.77%	-20.22	1-1
1971-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-13	1528.85	1489.55	45.88%	48.94%	+23.51	2-1
1971-10-17	New England Patriots	W 41-3	1552.36	1386.97	74.21%	20.66%	+19.97	3-1
1971-10-24	@ New York Jets	W 30-14	1572.33	1445.14	58.22%	36.61%	+22.55	4-1
1971-10-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1594.88	1651.65	32.75%	62.08%	+22.94	5-1
1971-11-07	Buffalo Bills	W 34-0	1617.82	1268.62	86.71%	8.30%	+7.68	6-1
1971-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-21	1625.50	1438.21	76.21%	18.67%	+5.08	7-1
1971-11-21	Baltimore Colts	W 17-14	1630.58	1680.97	47.35%	47.47%	+12.51	8-1
1971-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 34-3	1643.09	1492.93	72.73%	22.14%	+19.29	9-1
1971-12-05	@ New England Patriots	L 13-34	1662.38	1327.30	80.07%	14.85%	-55.39	9-2
1971-12-11	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-14	1606.99	1708.14	27.38%	67.47%	-14.13	9-3
1971-12-19	Green Bay Packers	W 27-6	1592.86	1454.43	71.54%	23.32%	+16.71	10-3
1971-09-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1663.44	1632.25	44.72%	50.10%	+13.17	1-0
1971-09-26	Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1676.61	1490.85	76.08%	18.81%	-19.88	1-1
1971-10-03	Buffalo Bills	W 19-0	1656.73	1328.03	85.75%	9.24%	+6.39	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-0	1663.12	1342.14	79.01%	15.90%	+9.04	3-1
1971-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-13	1672.16	1478.95	66.55%	28.30%	+14.58	4-1
1971-10-25	Baltimore Colts	W 10-3	1686.74	1670.32	56.76%	38.06%	+15.49	5-1
1971-10-31	@ New York Giants	W 17-10	1702.23	1432.57	74.62%	20.26%	+8.41	6-1
1971-11-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 9-13	1710.64	1628.42	65.24%	29.60%	-19.67	6-2
1971-11-14	Green Bay Packers	W 3-0	1690.97	1469.87	79.01%	15.90%	+4.33	7-2
1971-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1695.30	1370.78	79.28%	15.63%	+8.89	8-2
1971-11-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-7	1704.19	1487.77	78.64%	16.26%	+10.56	9-2
1971-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-30	1714.75	1434.19	75.62%	19.27%	-45.62	9-3
1971-12-11	Detroit Lions	W 29-10	1669.13	1648.69	57.31%	37.52%	+25.16	10-3
1971-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-10	1694.29	1429.32	74.18%	20.70%	+13.38	11-3
1971-09-19	Oakland Raiders	W 20-6	1344.65	1546.05	27.35%	67.50%	+38.07	1-0
1971-09-26	Detroit Lions	L 7-34	1382.72	1619.08	23.53%	71.33%	-19.11	1-1
1971-10-03	Baltimore Colts	L 3-23	1363.61	1611.60	22.35%	72.52%	-15.64	1-2
1971-10-10	New York Jets	W 20-0	1347.97	1471.53	37.09%	57.73%	+39.00	2-2
1971-10-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-41	1386.97	1552.36	20.66%	74.21%	-19.97	2-3
1971-10-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-44	1367.00	1594.58	15.41%	79.51%	-11.64	2-4
1971-10-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-27	1355.36	1620.06	12.82%	82.11%	-8.36	2-5
1971-11-07	Houston Oilers	W 28-20	1347.00	1348.97	54.23%	40.59%	+17.61	3-5
1971-11-14	Buffalo Bills	W 38-33	1364.61	1260.94	67.75%	27.09%	+9.43	4-5
1971-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1374.04	1414.77	34.82%	60.01%	-24.03	4-6
1971-11-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-27	1350.01	1233.32	56.80%	38.02%	-22.71	4-7
1971-12-05	Miami Dolphins	W 34-13	1327.30	1662.38	14.85%	80.07%	+55.39	5-7
1971-12-12	@ New York Jets	L 6-13	1382.69	1404.08	37.39%	57.44%	-15.22	5-8
1971-12-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-17	1367.47	1722.27	8.06%	86.95%	+26.30	6-8
1971-09-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-20	1343.87	1611.74	20.43%	74.45%	+22.45	1-0
1971-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-38	1366.32	1562.23	27.98%	66.86%	-18.46	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Houston Oilers	T 13-13	1347.86	1368.04	37.55%	57.27%	+0.72	1-1
1971-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-35	1348.58	1493.17	22.70%	72.17%	-16.27	1-2
1971-10-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-14	1332.31	1631.43	17.66%	77.24%	+36.85	2-2
1971-10-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-28	1369.16	1413.98	34.29%	60.54%	-24.83	2-3
1971-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1344.33	1589.90	14.10%	80.82%	-7.04	2-4
1971-11-07	Oakland Raiders	T 21-21	1337.29	1622.05	18.89%	75.99%	+2.13	2-4
1971-11-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-20	1339.42	1648.09	10.25%	84.72%	+31.36	3-4
1971-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1370.78	1695.30	15.63%	79.28%	-8.88	3-5
1971-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 29-21	1361.90	1449.50	28.96%	65.88%	+28.09	4-5
1971-12-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 28-45	1389.99	1640.84	13.74%	81.19%	-8.95	4-6
1971-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1381.04	1472.97	41.44%	53.38%	-12.69	4-7
1971-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-24	1368.35	1484.15	38.14%	56.68%	-11.73	4-8
1971-09-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 42-40	1533.64	1453.29	51.75%	43.07%	+9.32	1-0
1971-09-26	Washington Redskins	L 3-30	1542.96	1508.73	59.15%	35.67%	-46.41	1-1
1971-10-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-20	1496.55	1517.00	37.52%	57.31%	+8.66	2-1
1971-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-20	1505.21	1620.81	25.76%	69.09%	-10.62	2-2
1971-10-17	Baltimore Colts	L 7-31	1494.59	1644.91	33.57%	61.26%	-25.41	2-3
1971-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1469.18	1323.59	60.65%	34.18%	-36.61	2-4
1971-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-17	1432.57	1702.23	20.26%	74.62%	-8.41	2-5
1971-11-07	San Diego Chargers	W 35-17	1424.16	1492.96	44.71%	50.11%	+32.27	3-5
1971-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-17	1456.43	1489.56	35.82%	59.01%	+17.82	4-5
1971-11-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1474.25	1433.13	46.14%	48.68%	-14.06	4-6
1971-11-28	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-24	1460.19	1434.87	57.96%	36.86%	-36.10	4-7
1971-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1424.09	1572.29	22.33%	72.53%	-13.98	4-8
1971-12-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-42	1410.11	1670.49	21.14%	73.74%	-17.52	4-9
1971-12-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-41	1392.59	1438.76	47.96%	46.86%	-26.30	4-10
1971-09-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-22	1484.33	1602.82	25.44%	69.41%	-18.61	0-1
1971-09-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-17	1465.72	1502.59	35.33%	59.50%	-14.41	0-2
1971-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 14-10	1451.31	1549.07	27.77%	67.07%	+20.22	1-2
1971-10-10	@ New England Patriots	L 0-20	1471.53	1347.97	57.73%	37.09%	-39.00	1-3
1971-10-17	Buffalo Bills	W 28-17	1432.53	1303.97	70.50%	24.36%	+12.61	2-3
1971-10-24	Miami Dolphins	L 14-30	1445.14	1572.33	36.61%	58.22%	-22.55	2-4
1971-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-49	1422.59	1464.67	34.64%	60.19%	-28.29	2-5
1971-11-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1394.30	1617.95	24.88%	69.98%	+18.27	3-5
1971-11-14	Baltimore Colts	L 13-14	1412.57	1677.73	20.68%	74.19%	-3.24	3-6
1971-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-7	1409.33	1251.51	62.22%	32.61%	+18.19	4-6
1971-11-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1427.52	1597.72	31.06%	63.77%	-8.34	4-7
1971-12-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-52	1419.18	1655.39	14.77%	80.15%	-15.10	4-8
1971-12-12	New England Patriots	W 13-6	1404.08	1382.69	57.44%	37.39%	+15.22	5-8
1971-12-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-21	1419.30	1456.63	49.23%	45.59%	+26.02	6-8
1971-09-19	@ New England Patriots	L 6-20	1546.05	1344.65	67.50%	27.35%	-38.07	0-1
1971-09-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-0	1507.98	1558.03	33.61%	61.22%	+53.86	1-1
1971-10-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-20	1561.84	1549.74	42.01%	52.81%	+29.93	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-16	1591.77	1401.52	66.20%	28.64%	+14.76	3-1
1971-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-10	1606.53	1333.10	82.67%	12.27%	+9.51	4-1
1971-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-27	1616.04	1454.18	73.87%	21.00%	+6.58	5-1
1971-10-31	Kansas City Chiefs	T 20-20	1622.62	1617.38	55.23%	39.59%	-0.57	5-1
1971-11-07	@ New Orleans Saints	T 21-21	1622.05	1337.29	75.99%	18.89%	-2.12	5-1
1971-11-14	Houston Oilers	W 41-21	1619.93	1331.36	83.59%	11.37%	+8.04	6-1
1971-11-21	San Diego Chargers	W 34-33	1627.97	1472.43	73.26%	21.61%	+3.39	7-1
1971-11-28	Baltimore Colts	L 14-37	1631.36	1668.46	49.26%	45.56%	-35.89	7-2
1971-12-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-24	1595.47	1477.22	57.02%	37.81%	-28.57	7-3
1971-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1566.90	1625.77	32.48%	62.35%	-7.11	7-4
1971-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 21-13	1559.79	1412.76	72.42%	22.45%	+9.94	8-4
1971-09-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-37	1405.27	1511.51	26.80%	68.05%	-20.01	0-1
1971-09-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-42	1385.26	1618.55	23.85%	71.01%	-22.05	0-2
1971-10-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1363.21	1580.69	25.55%	69.31%	-21.07	0-3
1971-10-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-13	1342.14	1663.12	15.90%	79.01%	-9.04	0-4
1971-10-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-34	1333.10	1606.53	12.27%	82.67%	-9.51	0-5
1971-10-24	New York Giants	W 23-7	1323.59	1469.18	34.18%	60.65%	+36.61	1-5
1971-10-31	Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1360.20	1458.88	40.50%	54.32%	+8.22	2-5
1971-11-07	@ Washington Redskins	T 7-7	1368.42	1596.94	15.33%	79.58%	+2.40	2-5
1971-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1370.82	1601.27	15.19%	79.72%	-8.64	2-6
1971-11-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 37-20	1362.18	1477.81	25.75%	69.10%	+42.95	3-6
1971-11-28	Washington Redskins	L 13-20	1405.13	1558.73	33.15%	61.68%	-13.56	3-7
1971-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1391.57	1670.41	11.94%	83.01%	+21.72	4-7
1971-12-12	St. Louis Cardinals	W 19-7	1413.29	1469.96	46.45%	48.37%	+25.47	5-7
1971-12-19	@ New York Giants	W 41-28	1438.76	1392.59	46.86%	47.96%	+26.30	6-7
1971-09-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 15-17	1393.71	1484.57	28.58%	66.27%	-6.28	0-1
1971-09-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-10	1387.43	1531.52	34.37%	60.46%	+30.26	1-1
1971-10-03	San Diego Chargers	W 21-17	1417.69	1504.17	42.20%	52.62%	+15.94	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-27	1433.63	1519.81	29.13%	65.71%	-14.31	2-2
1971-10-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-38	1419.32	1585.56	20.58%	74.29%	-15.13	2-3
1971-10-24	Houston Oilers	W 23-16	1404.19	1345.12	62.38%	32.46%	+13.29	3-3
1971-10-31	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-34	1417.48	1654.84	14.69%	80.23%	-8.36	3-4
1971-11-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-9	1409.12	1451.38	48.52%	46.30%	+29.09	4-4
1971-11-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-24	1438.21	1625.50	18.67%	76.21%	-5.08	4-5
1971-11-21	New York Giants	W 17-13	1433.13	1474.25	48.68%	46.14%	+14.06	5-5
1971-11-28	Denver Broncos	L 10-22	1447.19	1397.14	61.22%	33.61%	-32.00	5-6
1971-12-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-29	1415.19	1288.40	58.17%	36.66%	-44.79	5-7
1971-12-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-13	1370.40	1486.09	25.75%	69.11%	+29.46	6-7
1971-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-23	1399.86	1614.27	25.88%	68.97%	-12.10	6-8
1971-09-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-14	1541.21	1549.81	53.30%	41.52%	+16.82	1-0
1971-09-26	Oakland Raiders	L 0-34	1558.03	1507.98	61.22%	33.61%	-53.86	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1504.17	1417.69	52.62%	42.20%	-15.94	1-2
1971-10-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-31	1488.23	1563.97	30.39%	64.45%	-21.59	1-3
1971-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-20	1466.64	1386.76	51.68%	43.14%	-15.67	1-4
1971-10-23	Buffalo Bills	W 20-3	1450.97	1291.36	73.66%	21.21%	+13.70	2-4
1971-10-31	New York Jets	W 49-21	1464.67	1422.59	60.19%	34.64%	+28.29	3-4
1971-11-07	@ New York Giants	L 17-35	1492.96	1424.16	50.11%	44.71%	-32.26	3-5
1971-11-15	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-17	1460.70	1489.55	50.44%	44.38%	+11.73	4-5
1971-11-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 33-34	1472.43	1627.97	21.61%	73.26%	-3.38	4-6
1971-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-31	1469.05	1465.31	40.84%	53.98%	-34.86	4-7
1971-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-14	1434.19	1714.75	19.27%	75.62%	+45.63	5-7
1971-12-12	Denver Broncos	W 45-17	1479.82	1441.44	59.70%	35.13%	+28.67	6-7
1971-12-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 33-49	1508.49	1349.29	62.40%	32.44%	-37.65	6-8
1971-09-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1577.69	1443.69	59.13%	35.70%	-15.46	0-1
1971-09-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-20	1562.23	1366.32	66.86%	27.98%	+18.46	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-3	1580.69	1363.21	69.31%	25.55%	+21.07	2-1
1971-10-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-20	1601.76	1605.13	54.03%	40.79%	-21.63	2-2
1971-10-17	Chicago Bears	W 13-0	1580.13	1509.44	63.83%	31.01%	+17.32	3-2
1971-10-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 26-14	1597.45	1514.20	52.16%	42.66%	+22.61	4-2
1971-10-31	New England Patriots	W 27-10	1620.06	1355.36	82.11%	12.82%	+8.36	5-2
1971-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-9	1628.42	1710.64	29.60%	65.24%	+19.67	6-2
1971-11-14	New Orleans Saints	L 20-26	1648.09	1339.42	84.72%	10.25%	-31.37	6-3
1971-11-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-17	1616.72	1639.30	37.23%	57.60%	-19.00	6-4
1971-11-28	@ New York Jets	W 24-21	1597.72	1427.52	63.77%	31.06%	+8.34	7-4
1971-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-26	1606.06	1600.71	55.24%	39.58%	-25.07	7-5
1971-12-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-3	1580.99	1505.79	64.39%	30.45%	+21.64	8-5
1971-12-19	Detroit Lions	W 31-27	1602.63	1623.53	51.57%	43.25%	+13.23	9-5
1971-09-19	Washington Redskins	L 17-24	1526.61	1484.71	60.17%	34.66%	-24.02	0-1
1971-09-27	New York Jets	W 17-10	1502.59	1465.72	59.50%	35.33%	+14.41	1-1
1971-10-03	New York Giants	L 20-21	1517.00	1496.55	57.31%	37.52%	-8.66	1-2
1971-10-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-9	1508.34	1455.55	47.81%	47.01%	+29.51	2-2
1971-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1537.85	1582.93	34.25%	60.58%	-23.65	2-3
1971-10-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-26	1514.20	1597.45	42.66%	52.16%	-22.61	2-4
1971-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-23	1491.59	1277.66	68.91%	25.94%	+9.04	3-4
1971-11-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-16	1500.63	1590.19	41.77%	53.05%	-11.08	3-5
1971-11-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1489.55	1460.70	44.38%	50.44%	-11.74	3-6
1971-11-21	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-37	1477.81	1362.18	69.10%	25.75%	-42.94	3-7
1971-11-28	@ New York Giants	W 24-7	1434.87	1460.19	36.86%	57.96%	+36.10	4-7
1971-12-05	Green Bay Packers	T 16-16	1470.97	1421.41	61.16%	33.67%	-1.01	4-7
1971-12-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-19	1469.96	1413.29	48.37%	46.45%	-25.47	4-8
1971-12-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 12-31	1444.49	1688.01	14.25%	80.68%	-9.81	4-9
1971-09-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-17	1484.71	1526.61	34.66%	60.17%	+24.02	1-0
1971-09-26	@ New York Giants	W 30-3	1508.73	1542.96	35.67%	59.15%	+46.40	2-0
1971-10-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-16	1555.13	1640.60	29.22%	65.63%	+19.79	3-0
1971-10-10	Houston Oilers	W 22-13	1574.92	1367.32	77.94%	16.96%	+8.01	4-0
1971-10-17	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-0	1582.93	1537.85	60.58%	34.25%	+23.65	5-0
1971-10-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1606.58	1600.70	41.14%	53.68%	-16.68	5-1
1971-10-31	New Orleans Saints	W 24-14	1589.90	1344.33	80.82%	14.10%	+7.04	6-1
1971-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	T 7-7	1596.94	1368.42	79.58%	15.33%	-2.39	6-1
1971-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 15-16	1594.55	1516.38	51.44%	43.38%	-7.80	6-2
1971-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-13	1586.75	1609.91	51.25%	43.57%	-28.02	6-3
1971-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-13	1558.73	1405.13	61.68%	33.15%	+13.56	7-3
1971-12-05	New York Giants	W 23-7	1572.29	1424.09	72.53%	22.33%	+13.98	8-3
1971-12-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-24	1586.27	1649.78	31.90%	62.94%	+35.51	9-3
1971-12-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-20	1621.78	1485.67	71.30%	23.56%	-28.44	9-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1971-12-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-3	1695.97	1514.10	68.12%	31.88%	+18.97	1-0
1972-01-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1714.94	1624.79	55.76%	44.24%	-36.87	1-1
1971-12-26	Baltimore Colts	L 3-20	1514.10	1695.97	31.88%	68.12%	-18.96	0-1
1971-12-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-12	1697.81	1707.67	41.47%	58.53%	+23.89	1-0
1972-01-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-3	1721.70	1627.32	69.66%	30.34%	+14.52	2-0
1972-01-16	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-3	1736.22	1661.66	60.57%	39.43%	+26.08	3-0
1971-12-25	Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1636.57	1609.57	60.90%	39.10%	-15.22	0-1
1971-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1609.57	1636.57	39.10%	60.90%	+15.22	1-0
1972-01-02	Baltimore Colts	W 21-0	1624.79	1714.94	44.24%	55.76%	+36.87	2-0
1972-01-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1661.66	1736.22	39.43%	60.57%	-26.08	2-1
1971-12-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 12-20	1707.67	1697.81	58.53%	41.47%	-23.89	0-1
1971-12-26	Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1615.86	1593.34	60.28%	39.72%	+11.46	1-0
1972-01-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-14	1627.32	1721.70	30.34%	69.66%	-14.52	1-1
1971-12-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1593.34	1615.86	39.72%	60.28%	-11.46	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1971-12-19	8.06%	New England Patriots	1367.47	21	@ Baltimore Colts	1722.27	17
2	1971-11-14	10.25%	New Orleans Saints	1339.42	26	@ San Francisco 49ers	1648.09	20
3	1971-12-05	11.94%	Philadelphia Eagles	1391.57	23	@ Detroit Lions	1670.41	20
4	1971-12-05	14.85%	@ New England Patriots	1327.30	34	Miami Dolphins	1662.38	13
5	1971-10-17	17.66%	@ New Orleans Saints	1332.31	24	Dallas Cowboys	1631.43	14
6	1971-09-26	18.81%	Chicago Bears	1490.85	20	@ Minnesota Vikings	1676.61	17
7	1971-12-05	19.27%	@ San Diego Chargers	1434.19	30	Minnesota Vikings	1714.75	14
8	1971-10-24	20.10%	Chicago Bears	1492.11	28	@ Detroit Lions	1663.48	23
9	1971-09-19	20.43%	@ New Orleans Saints	1343.87	24	Los Angeles Rams	1611.74	20
10	1971-10-24	22.80%	Denver Broncos	1402.43	27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1545.96	0
11	1971-12-19	23.56%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1485.67	20	@ Washington Redskins	1621.78	13
12	1971-11-07	24.88%	@ New York Jets	1394.30	13	Kansas City Chiefs	1617.95	10
13	1971-11-21	25.75%	Philadelphia Eagles	1362.18	37	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1477.81	20
14	1971-12-12	25.75%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1370.40	21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1486.09	13
15	1971-09-19	27.35%	@ New England Patriots	1344.65	20	Oakland Raiders	1546.05	6
16	1971-10-03	27.77%	New York Jets	1451.31	14	@ Miami Dolphins	1549.07	10
17	1971-11-28	28.96%	New Orleans Saints	1361.90	29	@ Green Bay Packers	1449.50	21
18	1971-10-03	29.22%	Washington Redskins	1555.13	20	@ Dallas Cowboys	1640.60	16
19	1971-11-07	29.60%	San Francisco 49ers	1628.42	13	@ Minnesota Vikings	1710.64	9
20	1971-09-26	29.69%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1539.91	14	@ Baltimore Colts	1621.43	13
21	1971-11-07	29.81%	Green Bay Packers	1452.89	17	@ Chicago Bears	1533.37	14
22	1971-12-13	31.90%	Washington Redskins	1586.27	38	@ Los Angeles Rams	1649.78	24
23	1971-12-19	32.44%	@ Houston Oilers	1349.29	49	San Diego Chargers	1508.49	33
24	1971-10-31	32.75%	Miami Dolphins	1594.88	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1651.65	14
25	1971-10-31	33.52%	Atlanta Falcons	1438.81	31	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1489.51	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1971-10-24	56.45	Denver Broncos	27	1402.43	22.80%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	0	1545.96	72.06%
2	1971-12-05	55.39	@ New England Patriots	34	1327.30	14.85%	Miami Dolphins	13	1662.38	80.07%
3	1971-09-26	53.86	Oakland Raiders	34	1507.98	33.61%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1558.03	61.22%
4	1971-09-26	46.41	Washington Redskins	30	1508.73	35.67%	@ New York Giants	3	1542.96	59.15%
5	1971-12-05	45.63	@ San Diego Chargers	30	1434.19	19.27%	Minnesota Vikings	14	1714.75	75.62%
6	1971-12-05	44.79	@ Houston Oilers	29	1288.40	36.66%	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1415.19	58.17%
7	1971-11-21	42.95	Philadelphia Eagles	37	1362.18	25.75%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	20	1477.81	69.10%
8	1971-10-10	39.00	@ New England Patriots	20	1347.97	37.09%	New York Jets	0	1471.53	57.73%
9	1971-10-31	38.13	Atlanta Falcons	31	1438.81	33.52%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1489.51	61.31%
10	1971-09-19	38.07	@ New England Patriots	20	1344.65	27.35%	Oakland Raiders	6	1546.05	67.50%
11	1971-12-19	37.65	@ Houston Oilers	49	1349.29	32.44%	San Diego Chargers	33	1508.49	62.40%
12	1972-01-02 *	36.87	@ Miami Dolphins	21	1624.79	44.24%	Baltimore Colts	0	1714.94	55.76%
13	1971-10-17	36.85	@ New Orleans Saints	24	1332.31	17.66%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1631.43	77.24%
14	1971-10-24	36.61	@ Philadelphia Eagles	23	1323.59	34.18%	New York Giants	7	1469.18	60.65%
15	1971-11-28	36.10	St. Louis Cardinals	24	1434.87	36.86%	@ New York Giants	7	1460.19	57.96%
16	1971-11-28	35.89	Baltimore Colts	37	1668.46	45.56%	@ Oakland Raiders	14	1631.36	49.26%
17	1971-12-13	35.51	Washington Redskins	38	1586.27	31.90%	@ Los Angeles Rams	24	1649.78	62.94%
18	1971-11-28	34.86	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1465.31	53.98%	San Diego Chargers	0	1469.05	40.84%
19	1971-11-14	32.64	Cincinnati Bengals	24	1417.85	37.07%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1441.62	57.76%
20	1971-11-07	32.27	@ New York Giants	35	1424.16	44.71%	San Diego Chargers	17	1492.96	50.11%
21	1971-12-12	32.02	@ Green Bay Packers	31	1422.42	49.00%	Chicago Bears	10	1461.34	45.82%
22	1971-11-28	32.00	Denver Broncos	22	1397.14	33.61%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1447.19	61.22%
23	1971-11-14	31.37	New Orleans Saints	26	1339.42	10.25%	@ San Francisco 49ers	20	1648.09	84.72%
24	1971-11-21	31.26	Detroit Lions	28	1620.83	54.04%	@ Chicago Bears	3	1524.18	40.78%
25	1971-09-26	30.26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	21	1387.43	34.37%	Cincinnati Bengals	10	1531.52	60.46%