1969 NFL Season
112 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Minnesota Vikings
1st Super Bowl
Runner-Up
Cleveland Browns (1st)
1st SB App.
Biggest Overachiever
Detroit Lions
2.49 wins above expected
9 wins · 7.01 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Chicago Bears
3.52 wins below expected
1 wins · 4.52 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 11 | 2 | 1 | .821 | — | 369 | 223 | +146 | 10.20 | +1.30 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 7 | 5 | 2 | .571 | 3.5 | 307 | 319 | -12 | 6.73 | +1.27 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 9 | 0 | .357 | 6.5 | 311 | 393 | -82 | 5.29 | -0.29 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 9 | 1 | .321 | 7 | 279 | 377 | -98 | 5.32 | -0.82 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings Division | 12 | 2 | 0 | .857 | — | 379 | 133 | +246 | 9.57 | +2.43 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 9 | 4 | 1 | .679 | 2.5 | 259 | 188 | +71 | 7.01 | +2.49 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 6 | 0 | .571 | 4 | 269 | 221 | +48 | 8.17 | -0.17 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 1 | 13 | 0 | .071 | 11 | 210 | 339 | -129 | 4.52 | -3.52 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns (1st) Division | 10 | 3 | 1 | .750 | — | 351 | 300 | +51 | 9.72 | +0.78 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 6 | 8 | 0 | .429 | 4.5 | 264 | 298 | -34 | 6.14 | -0.14 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 9 | 1 | .321 | 6 | 314 | 389 | -75 | 6.74 | -2.24 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 13 | 0 | .071 | 9.5 | 218 | 404 | -186 | 3.90 | -2.90 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 3 | 0 | .786 | — | 320 | 243 | +77 | 9.93 | +1.07 |
| 2 | Baltimore Colts | 8 | 5 | 1 | .607 | 2.5 | 279 | 268 | +11 | 9.12 | -0.62 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 8 | 0 | .429 | 5 | 276 | 268 | +8 | 4.30 | +1.70 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 8 | 2 | .357 | 6 | 277 | 319 | -42 | 5.34 | -0.34 |
Playoff Bracket
Eastern Conference
Western Conference
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | West | Central | 1794 | 12 | 9.57 | +2.43 | 97.97% | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| Dallas Cowboys | East | Capitol | 1716 | 11.5 | 10.20 | +1.30 | 84.78% | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Detroit Lions | West | Central | 1649 | 9.5 | 7.01 | +2.49 | 95.00% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Baltimore Colts | West | Coastal | 1628 | 8.5 | 9.12 | -0.62 | 43.29% | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| Los Angeles Rams | West | Coastal | 1626 | 11 | 9.93 | +1.07 | 87.91% | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | East | Century | 1617 | 10.5 | 9.72 | +0.78 | 74.93% | 2 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Green Bay Packers | West | Central | 1571 | 8 | 8.17 | -0.17 | 65.32% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| Atlanta Falcons | West | Coastal | 1530 | 6 | 4.30 | +1.70 | 93.96% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Washington Redskins | East | Capitol | 1494 | 8 | 6.73 | +1.27 | 89.24% | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| New York Giants | East | Century | 1480 | 6 | 6.14 | -0.14 | 66.45% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | Coastal | 1415 | 5 | 5.34 | -0.34 | 63.31% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| New Orleans Saints | East | Capitol | 1363 | 5 | 5.29 | -0.29 | 64.77% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | East | Century | 1331 | 4.5 | 6.74 | -2.24 | 14.00% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | Capitol | 1321 | 4.5 | 5.32 | -0.82 | 40.23% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| Chicago Bears | West | Central | 1268 | 1 | 4.52 | -3.52 | 3.78% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | Century | 1195 | 1 | 3.90 | -2.90 | 8.43% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Within Capitol
| Team | Cowboys | Saints | Eagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | — |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
Capitol vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Falcons | Colts | Bears | (1st) | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | Giants | Steelers | 49ers | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
Within Central
| Team | Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
Central vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Falcons | Colts | (1st) | Cowboys | Rams | Saints | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | 49ers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
0-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
Within Century
| Team | (1st) | Giants | Steelers | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | — |
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
0-1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
Century vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Falcons | Colts | Bears | Cowboys | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | Saints | Eagles | 49ers | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.0 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
Within Coastal
| Team | Falcons | Colts | Rams | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | — |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Baltimore Colts |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.5 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
— |
Coastal vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bears | (1st) | Cowboys | Lions | Packers | Vikings | Saints | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons |
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.1 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Baltimore Colts |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
0-0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 0.89% | 1.79% | 3.12% | 0.89% | 0.45% | 0.89% | 8.04% |
| 7–13 | 0.89% | 7.14% | 4.91% | 2.68% | 0.89% | 0.89% | 0.89% | 18.30% |
| 14–20 | 1.79% | 4.91% | 5.36% | 7.14% | 2.23% | 0.89% | 2.23% | 24.55% |
| 21–27 | 3.12% | 2.68% | 7.14% | 10.71% | 1.79% | 0.45% | 0.45% | 26.34% |
| 28–34 | 0.89% | 0.89% | 2.23% | 1.79% | 2.68% | 1.34% | 1.34% | 11.16% |
| 35–41 | 0.45% | 0.89% | 0.89% | 0.45% | 1.34% | — | 0.45% | 4.46% |
| 42+ | 0.89% | 0.89% | 2.23% | 0.45% | 1.34% | 0.45% | 0.89% | 7.14% |
| Total | 8.04% | 18.30% | 24.55% | 26.34% | 11.16% | 4.46% | 7.14% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.90 | 20.90 | +0.00 |
| SD | 11.56 | 11.56 | 16.30 |
| CV | 0.55 | 0.55 | — |
| Max | 52 | 52 | +48 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -48 |
Games Played: 112
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 21.43% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| Total | 14.29% | 21.43% | 14.29% | 28.57% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | 100% |
Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.71 | 19.14 | +0.57 |
| SD | 13.25 | 10.71 | 16.90 |
| CV | 0.67 | 0.56 | — |
| Max | 48 | 38 | +28 |
| Min | 6 | 3 | -32 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | 35.71% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 14.29% | 14.29% | 35.71% | 28.57% | — | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.93 | 19.14 | +0.79 |
| SD | 8.15 | 11.91 | 15.17 |
| CV | 0.41 | 0.62 | — |
| Max | 41 | 52 | +24 |
| Min | 10 | 6 | -38 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 7–13 | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 21.43% | 21.43% | 14.29% | 28.57% | — | 14.29% | 100% |
Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 15.00 | 24.21 | -9.21 |
| SD | 12.06 | 11.62 | 14.53 |
| CV | 0.80 | 0.48 | — |
| Max | 38 | 48 | +31 |
| Min | 0 | 7 | -31 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| Total | 7.14% | 14.29% | 21.43% | 35.71% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 25.07 | 21.43 | +3.64 |
| SD | 9.90 | 11.67 | 18.46 |
| CV | 0.39 | 0.54 | — |
| Max | 42 | 51 | +32 |
| Min | 3 | 3 | -48 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 21–27 | 14.29% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 42+ | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 14.29% | 28.57% | 28.57% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 26.36 | 15.93 | +10.43 |
| SD | 10.89 | 10.84 | 16.41 |
| CV | 0.41 | 0.68 | — |
| Max | 49 | 42 | +35 |
| Min | 10 | 3 | -32 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 35.71% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 28.57% | 14.29% | 21.43% | 28.57% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 18.50 | 13.43 | +5.07 |
| SD | 7.99 | 10.17 | 15.30 |
| CV | 0.43 | 0.76 | — |
| Max | 28 | 28 | +28 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -27 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 21.43% | — | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 14.29% | 28.57% | 35.71% | — | 21.43% | — | — | 100% |
Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.21 | 15.79 | +3.43 |
| SD | 12.15 | 10.56 | 12.20 |
| CV | 0.63 | 0.67 | — |
| Max | 45 | 34 | +18 |
| Min | 6 | 0 | -13 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 35.71% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 28.57% | 28.57% | 21.43% | 14.29% | — | — | 100% |
Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 22.86 | 17.36 | +5.50 |
| SD | 12.37 | 7.48 | 13.78 |
| CV | 0.54 | 0.43 | — |
| Max | 41 | 30 | +32 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -28 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| Total | 21.43% | 50.00% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 100% |
Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 27.07 | 9.50 | +17.57 |
| SD | 15.65 | 6.36 | 16.62 |
| CV | 0.58 | 0.67 | — |
| Max | 52 | 24 | +48 |
| Min | 3 | 0 | -7 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | 21.43% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 50.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 35.71% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 100% |
New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 22.21 | 28.07 | -5.86 |
| SD | 11.81 | 9.73 | 11.39 |
| CV | 0.53 | 0.35 | — |
| Max | 51 | 45 | +9 |
| Min | 10 | 13 | -28 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 7.14% | 7.14% | 28.57% | 42.86% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
New York Giants — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 18.86 | 21.29 | -2.43 |
| SD | 12.13 | 8.92 | 17.39 |
| CV | 0.64 | 0.42 | — |
| Max | 49 | 42 | +43 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -25 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 28.57% | — | — | 7.14% | 35.71% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | 21.43% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 42.86% | 21.43% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 100% |
Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.93 | 26.93 | -7.00 |
| SD | 10.38 | 9.60 | 13.91 |
| CV | 0.52 | 0.36 | — |
| Max | 41 | 49 | +14 |
| Min | 3 | 10 | -35 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 35.71% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | — | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 21.43% | 7.14% | 28.57% | — | 21.43% | 21.43% | 100% |
Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 15.57 | 28.86 | -13.29 |
| SD | 9.88 | 14.22 | 13.44 |
| CV | 0.63 | 0.49 | — |
| Max | 34 | 52 | +3 |
| Min | 3 | 10 | -38 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 21.43% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | — | 14.29% | 21.43% | 50.00% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 100% |
San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.79 | 22.79 | -3.00 |
| SD | 11.07 | 9.54 | 9.02 |
| CV | 0.56 | 0.42 | — |
| Max | 42 | 43 | +21 |
| Min | 7 | 10 | -14 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | 21.43% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% | 21.43% |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 28.57% | 28.57% | 14.29% | — | 21.43% | 100% |
St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 22.43 | 27.79 | -5.36 |
| SD | 14.74 | 13.05 | 20.43 |
| CV | 0.66 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 47 | 51 | +37 |
| Min | 0 | 10 | -43 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | 21.43% | — | — | 7.14% | — | 35.71% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | 28.57% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 50.00% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | 100% |
Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.93 | 22.79 | -0.86 |
| SD | 7.58 | 9.78 | 10.49 |
| CV | 0.35 | 0.43 | — |
| Max | 34 | 41 | +16 |
| Min | 10 | 7 | -24 |
Games Played: 14
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 9.5 | 7.01 | +2.49 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 12 | 9.57 | +2.43 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 4.30 | +1.70 |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | 11.5 | 10.20 | +1.30 |
| 5 | Washington Redskins | 8 | 6.73 | +1.27 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 1 | 4.52 | -3.52 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 3.90 | -2.90 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.5 | 6.74 | -2.24 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4.5 | 5.32 | -0.82 |
| 5 | Baltimore Colts | 8.5 | 9.12 | -0.62 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 12 | Sep 28 – Dec 14 | 1 in 200 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 11 | Sep 21 – Nov 30 | 1 in 62 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 3 | Dec 7 – Dec 21 | 1 in 32 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 3 | Dec 7 – Dec 21 | 1 in 16 |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | 3 | Nov 16 – Nov 30 | 1 in 11 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 13 | Sep 28 – Dec 21 | 1 in 90 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 7 | Oct 19 – Nov 30 | 1 in 42 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 3 | Dec 7 – Dec 21 | 1 in 23 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 7 | Sep 21 – Nov 2 | 1 in 16 |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | 6 | Sep 21 – Oct 26 | 1 in 16 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 89.04% | 8.96% | 1.73% | 0.27% |
| Washington Redskins | 7.52% | 50.43% | 27.12% | 14.93% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.88% | 20.91% | 35.37% | 41.84% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1.56% | 19.70% | 35.78% | 42.96% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 64.17% | 26.11% | 8.73% | 0.99% |
| Green Bay Packers | 25.25% | 42.75% | 26.43% | 5.57% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.06% | 27.41% | 48.87% | 13.66% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.52% | 3.73% | 15.97% | 79.78% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 84.47% | 12.41% | 2.81% | 0.31% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 9.56% | 48.32% | 32.59% | 9.53% |
| New York Giants | 5.49% | 33.86% | 44.88% | 15.77% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.48% | 5.41% | 19.72% | 74.39% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 61.75% | 34.98% | 2.91% | 0.36% |
| Baltimore Colts | 37.19% | 55.31% | 6.56% | 0.94% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.71% | 6.92% | 59.93% | 32.44% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.35% | 2.79% | 30.60% | 66.26% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 55.02% | 32.25% | 7.76% | 3.11% | 1.22% | 0.45% | 0.19% | — |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 37.69% | 42.81% | 11.77% | 4.81% | 1.80% | 0.78% | 0.23% | 0.11% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2.65% | 7.96% | 23.54% | 22.41% | 18.12% | 13.57% | 7.40% | 4.35% |
| Washington Redskins | 2.64% | 7.92% | 23.58% | 21.82% | 16.92% | 13.37% | 9.29% | 4.46% |
| New York Giants | 1.10% | 4.86% | 15.39% | 18.81% | 21.04% | 18.36% | 12.30% | 8.14% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.47% | 2.23% | 8.19% | 12.78% | 17.19% | 19.84% | 21.92% | 17.38% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.37% | 1.65% | 7.84% | 12.46% | 16.54% | 20.93% | 24.16% | 16.05% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.06% | 0.32% | 1.93% | 3.80% | 7.17% | 12.70% | 24.51% | 49.51% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 37.87% | 27.62% | 18.01% | 11.08% | 3.65% | 1.35% | 0.34% | 0.08% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 29.07% | 28.21% | 19.80% | 14.07% | 6.53% | 1.78% | 0.46% | 0.08% |
| Baltimore Colts | 21.22% | 22.22% | 25.30% | 19.18% | 7.66% | 3.32% | 0.78% | 0.32% |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.65% | 14.56% | 21.06% | 24.93% | 18.54% | 7.84% | 3.19% | 1.23% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.92% | 6.01% | 11.88% | 19.17% | 29.55% | 17.64% | 9.28% | 3.55% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.17% | 0.73% | 2.24% | 6.33% | 17.10% | 32.23% | 23.72% | 17.48% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.05% | 0.36% | 1.06% | 3.00% | 9.24% | 17.04% | 33.61% | 35.64% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.05% | 0.29% | 0.65% | 2.24% | 7.73% | 18.80% | 28.62% | 41.62% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 26.73% | 23.02% | 16.63% | 13.78% | 7.54% | 5.01% | 2.96% | 2.01% | 1.00% | 0.63% | 0.32% | 0.18% | 0.12% | 0.05% | 0.02% | — |
| Los Angeles Rams | 22.37% | 18.80% | 16.67% | 12.82% | 10.85% | 6.99% | 4.97% | 2.80% | 1.75% | 0.81% | 0.66% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.02% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 17.27% | 18.10% | 17.01% | 17.70% | 10.47% | 7.93% | 4.13% | 3.16% | 1.84% | 1.08% | 0.72% | 0.29% | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.04% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16.27% | 15.86% | 16.54% | 13.72% | 12.04% | 9.16% | 6.28% | 4.22% | 2.71% | 1.66% | 0.86% | 0.33% | 0.24% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| Baltimore Colts | 11.07% | 12.49% | 12.88% | 14.06% | 14.80% | 11.01% | 8.92% | 5.57% | 3.56% | 2.38% | 1.46% | 1.01% | 0.37% | 0.23% | 0.14% | 0.05% |
| Green Bay Packers | 3.70% | 5.84% | 8.98% | 9.52% | 14.02% | 12.05% | 13.34% | 8.88% | 8.52% | 5.28% | 3.91% | 2.38% | 1.77% | 0.94% | 0.66% | 0.21% |
| Detroit Lions | 1.12% | 1.97% | 3.47% | 4.91% | 7.51% | 8.87% | 11.38% | 11.22% | 12.74% | 10.29% | 8.38% | 6.62% | 4.99% | 3.53% | 1.73% | 1.27% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.56% | 1.35% | 2.43% | 4.15% | 6.29% | 10.08% | 11.33% | 12.63% | 10.81% | 10.56% | 8.17% | 7.86% | 5.34% | 3.94% | 2.72% | 1.78% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.63% | 1.37% | 2.44% | 3.94% | 6.28% | 10.38% | 10.80% | 12.49% | 10.80% | 10.14% | 8.32% | 7.47% | 5.79% | 4.54% | 2.86% | 1.75% |
| New York Giants | 0.15% | 0.62% | 1.35% | 2.32% | 3.97% | 6.85% | 7.89% | 10.46% | 11.03% | 11.41% | 10.27% | 10.91% | 7.75% | 6.44% | 5.19% | 3.39% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.52% | 1.00% | 1.85% | 3.46% | 4.68% | 7.11% | 7.89% | 9.85% | 9.87% | 11.73% | 11.03% | 11.82% | 10.21% | 8.71% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.36% | 0.72% | 1.35% | 2.28% | 4.51% | 5.77% | 8.54% | 9.97% | 13.74% | 12.72% | 12.71% | 10.31% | 9.68% | 7.20% |
| New Orleans Saints | — | 0.21% | 0.43% | 0.71% | 1.57% | 3.28% | 4.48% | 6.80% | 7.36% | 10.02% | 10.57% | 11.53% | 12.76% | 12.10% | 10.05% | 8.13% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.69% | 1.02% | 1.84% | 2.97% | 4.66% | 6.21% | 8.30% | 9.74% | 13.64% | 15.86% | 17.18% | 17.38% |
| Atlanta Falcons | — | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.23% | 0.46% | 0.85% | 1.45% | 2.25% | 3.95% | 5.37% | 8.77% | 9.15% | 12.67% | 15.03% | 19.41% | 20.27% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | — | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.31% | 0.78% | 1.04% | 1.66% | 2.84% | 4.34% | 5.68% | 7.89% | 10.46% | 15.02% | 20.05% | 29.78% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 55.02% | 32.25% | 12.73% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 37.69% | 42.81% | 19.50% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2.65% | 7.96% | 89.39% |
| Washington Redskins | 2.64% | 7.92% | 89.44% |
| New York Giants | 1.10% | 4.86% | 94.04% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.47% | 2.23% | 97.30% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.37% | 1.65% | 97.98% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.06% | 0.32% | 99.62% |
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 37.87% | 27.62% | 34.51% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 29.07% | 28.21% | 42.72% |
| Baltimore Colts | 21.22% | 22.22% | 56.56% |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.65% | 14.56% | 76.79% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.92% | 6.01% | 91.07% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.17% | 0.73% | 99.10% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.05% | 0.36% | 99.59% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.05% | 0.29% | 99.66% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 87.27% | 59.81% | 30.83% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 57.28% | 41.35% | 27.22% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 80.50% | 33.88% | 14.04% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 65.49% | 26.87% | 12.48% |
| Baltimore Colts | 43.44% | 18.47% | 8.62% |
| Green Bay Packers | 23.21% | 9.01% | 3.61% |
| Detroit Lions | 8.93% | 4.08% | 1.96% |
| Washington Redskins | 10.56% | 3.00% | 0.74% |
| New York Giants | 5.96% | 1.40% | 0.28% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 10.61% | 1.28% | 0.15% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.70% | 0.33% | 0.03% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.90% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2.02% | 0.29% | 0.01% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.41% | — | — |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.38% | 0.01% | — |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 24.81% | 0.84% | 1.17% | 1.06% | 0.05% | 2.52% | 3.43% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 44.10% | 0.77% | 3.22% | 1.15% | 0.30% | 6.39% | 3.88% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.16% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||
| New York Giants | 0.36% | 0.82% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.09% | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.18% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.04% | ||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.01% | |||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.37% | 0.65% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.10% | ||
| Washington Redskins | 1.45% | 1.03% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.32% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Colts | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.01% | ||||
| Baltimore Colts | 0.02% | 0.07% | 1.06% | 3.54% | 8.54% | 5.12% | 0.12% | |
| Detroit Lions | 1.10% | 0.01% | 0.37% | 2.15% | 0.45% | |||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.09% | 2.72% | 0.15% | 4.89% | 1.07% | 0.09% | ||
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.07% | 8.23% | 0.26% | 2.27% | 6.57% | 9.27% | 0.20% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.10% | 12.88% | 0.06% | 1.35% | 3.70% | 22.93% | 0.33% | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Colts | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||
| Baltimore Colts | 3.40% | 4.30% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.07% | 0.19% | 0.39% | ||||||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.02% | 3.00% | 0.60% | 1.85% | 4.55% | 3.96% | 0.06% | ||||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.03% | 6.58% | 1.45% | 3.44% | 9.40% | 9.85% | 0.08% | ||||||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.77% | 1.00% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.10% | |||||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 1.32% | 1.80% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.25% | ||||||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 4.83% | 6.38% | 0.07% | 0.25% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.30% | 0.52% | |||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 9.51% | 15.48% | 0.14% | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.55% | 1.00% | ||||||||
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||
| New York Giants | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.10% | ||||||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.02% | ||||||||||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.04% | ||||||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.31% | 0.17% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 78.57% | 54.79% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 72.22% | 28.53% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 21.43% | 8.67% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 27.78% | 8.01% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 27.78% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 72.22% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 21.43% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 78.57% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 2.49% | 5.52% | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.27% | 18.26% | ||
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.29% | 5.38% | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 16.48% | 38.31% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-09-21 | San Francisco 49ers | W 24-12 | 1360.33 | 1500.70 | 36.16% | 58.75% | +45.05 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 7-17 | 1405.38 | 1629.71 | 14.95% | 80.02% | -10.93 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | Baltimore Colts | L 14-21 | 1394.45 | 1546.44 | 34.63% | 60.29% | -20.72 | 1-2 |
| 1969-10-12 | Dallas Cowboys | L 17-24 | 1373.73 | 1674.48 | 18.35% | 76.60% | -11.19 | 1-3 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 21-7 | 1362.54 | 1425.63 | 30.80% | 64.12% | +53.03 | 2-3 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-28 | 1415.57 | 1577.80 | 20.09% | 74.85% | -19.59 | 2-4 |
| 1969-11-02 | Los Angeles Rams | L 6-38 | 1395.98 | 1699.39 | 18.12% | 76.83% | -23.61 | 2-5 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Detroit Lions | L 21-27 | 1372.37 | 1525.05 | 20.99% | 73.95% | -11.81 | 2-6 |
| 1969-11-16 | Chicago Bears | W 48-31 | 1360.56 | 1402.98 | 49.91% | 45.00% | +41.50 | 3-6 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Washington Redskins | L 20-27 | 1402.06 | 1473.78 | 29.75% | 65.17% | -17.91 | 3-7 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 6-13 | 1384.15 | 1616.52 | 14.38% | 80.60% | -8.79 | 3-8 |
| 1969-12-07 | New Orleans Saints | W 45-17 | 1375.36 | 1417.28 | 49.98% | 44.93% | +53.17 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 27-3 | 1428.53 | 1381.34 | 45.68% | 49.22% | +53.70 | 5-8 |
| 1969-12-21 | Minnesota Vikings | W 10-3 | 1482.23 | 1841.61 | 13.82% | 81.16% | +47.55 | 6-8 |
| 1969-09-21 | Los Angeles Rams | L 20-27 | 1660.85 | 1591.79 | 64.85% | 30.08% | -37.93 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 14-52 | 1622.92 | 1503.01 | 55.99% | 38.93% | -76.48 | 0-2 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 21-14 | 1546.44 | 1394.45 | 60.29% | 34.63% | +20.73 | 1-2 |
| 1969-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 24-20 | 1567.17 | 1404.82 | 74.87% | 20.08% | +9.23 | 2-2 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 30-10 | 1576.40 | 1352.57 | 69.00% | 25.93% | +26.48 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-26 | San Francisco 49ers | L 21-24 | 1602.88 | 1372.60 | 80.45% | 14.52% | -30.85 | 3-3 |
| 1969-11-02 | Washington Redskins | W 41-17 | 1572.03 | 1543.17 | 59.75% | 35.16% | +38.94 | 4-3 |
| 1969-11-09 | Green Bay Packers | W 14-6 | 1610.97 | 1606.79 | 56.44% | 38.47% | +24.51 | 5-3 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-20 | 1635.48 | 1363.81 | 73.95% | 20.99% | -28.31 | 5-4 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Chicago Bears | W 24-21 | 1607.17 | 1361.49 | 71.35% | 23.58% | +9.35 | 6-4 |
| 1969-11-30 | Atlanta Falcons | W 13-6 | 1616.52 | 1384.15 | 80.60% | 14.38% | +8.80 | 7-4 |
| 1969-12-07 | Detroit Lions | T 17-17 | 1625.32 | 1560.22 | 64.36% | 30.56% | -1.82 | 7-4 |
| 1969-12-13 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 10-27 | 1623.50 | 1673.72 | 32.41% | 62.51% | -30.30 | 7-5 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 13-7 | 1593.20 | 1660.72 | 30.26% | 64.66% | +35.01 | 8-5 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 0-17 | 1490.40 | 1554.41 | 30.69% | 64.23% | -28.75 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-20 | 1461.65 | 1499.13 | 34.04% | 60.88% | -13.34 | 0-2 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ New York Giants | L 24-28 | 1448.31 | 1435.18 | 40.86% | 54.05% | -18.36 | 0-3 |
| 1969-10-12 | Minnesota Vikings | L 0-31 | 1429.95 | 1611.78 | 30.84% | 64.08% | -39.00 | 0-4 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-13 | 1390.95 | 1492.98 | 26.24% | 68.69% | -14.68 | 0-5 |
| 1969-10-26 | Los Angeles Rams | L 7-9 | 1376.27 | 1693.86 | 16.94% | 78.02% | -5.52 | 0-6 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 14-31 | 1370.75 | 1699.36 | 8.80% | 86.22% | -8.44 | 0-7 |
| 1969-11-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 38-7 | 1362.31 | 1310.55 | 62.70% | 32.21% | +40.67 | 1-7 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 31-48 | 1402.98 | 1360.56 | 45.00% | 49.91% | -41.49 | 1-8 |
| 1969-11-23 | Baltimore Colts | L 21-24 | 1361.49 | 1607.17 | 23.58% | 71.35% | -9.36 | 1-9 |
| 1969-11-30 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-28 | 1352.13 | 1631.63 | 20.26% | 74.69% | -9.31 | 1-10 |
| 1969-12-06 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 21-42 | 1342.82 | 1374.79 | 34.76% | 60.16% | -36.02 | 1-11 |
| 1969-12-14 | Green Bay Packers | L 3-21 | 1306.80 | 1530.92 | 25.90% | 69.03% | -25.09 | 1-12 |
| 1969-12-21 | Detroit Lions | L 3-20 | 1281.71 | 1635.62 | 14.20% | 80.78% | -13.55 | 1-13 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 27-20 | 1560.22 | 1428.91 | 57.54% | 37.38% | +22.30 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | Washington Redskins | W 27-23 | 1582.52 | 1472.25 | 69.60% | 25.33% | +11.57 | 2-0 |
| 1969-10-05 | Detroit Lions | L 21-28 | 1594.09 | 1490.33 | 68.89% | 26.04% | -40.27 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 27-17 | 1553.82 | 1374.97 | 63.71% | 31.21% | +22.41 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 42-31 | 1576.23 | 1349.45 | 80.20% | 14.78% | +11.33 | 4-1 |
| 1969-10-26 | St. Louis Cardinals | T 21-21 | 1587.56 | 1466.53 | 70.76% | 24.17% | -2.53 | 4-1 |
| 1969-11-02 | Dallas Cowboys | W 42-10 | 1585.03 | 1714.41 | 37.64% | 57.28% | +71.76 | 5-1 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 3-51 | 1656.79 | 1707.80 | 32.31% | 62.61% | -50.76 | 5-2 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-3 | 1606.03 | 1269.87 | 79.48% | 15.49% | +16.40 | 6-2 |
| 1969-11-23 | New York Giants | W 28-17 | 1622.43 | 1353.34 | 83.03% | 11.97% | +9.20 | 7-2 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ Chicago Bears | W 28-24 | 1631.63 | 1352.13 | 74.69% | 20.26% | +9.31 | 8-2 |
| 1969-12-07 | Green Bay Packers | W 20-7 | 1640.94 | 1553.87 | 66.99% | 27.94% | +22.95 | 9-2 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-21 | 1663.89 | 1356.73 | 77.15% | 17.80% | +10.05 | 10-2 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ New York Giants | L 14-27 | 1673.94 | 1423.18 | 71.88% | 23.06% | -57.28 | 10-3 |
| 1969-09-21 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 24-3 | 1593.65 | 1531.29 | 64.02% | 30.89% | +32.15 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 21-17 | 1625.80 | 1399.84 | 69.24% | 25.69% | +11.74 | 2-0 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-7 | 1637.54 | 1441.76 | 65.77% | 29.15% | +36.94 | 3-0 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 24-17 | 1674.48 | 1373.73 | 76.60% | 18.35% | +11.18 | 4-0 |
| 1969-10-19 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 49-14 | 1685.66 | 1395.59 | 84.25% | 10.75% | +14.77 | 5-0 |
| 1969-10-27 | New York Giants | W 25-3 | 1700.43 | 1445.74 | 82.12% | 12.87% | +13.98 | 6-0 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 10-42 | 1714.41 | 1585.03 | 57.28% | 37.64% | -71.76 | 6-1 |
| 1969-11-09 | New Orleans Saints | W 33-17 | 1642.65 | 1362.80 | 83.67% | 11.33% | +10.51 | 7-1 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Washington Redskins | W 41-28 | 1653.16 | 1502.12 | 60.16% | 34.75% | +28.34 | 8-1 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 23-24 | 1681.50 | 1738.88 | 31.51% | 63.41% | -7.15 | 8-2 |
| 1969-11-27 | San Francisco 49ers | T 24-24 | 1674.35 | 1370.66 | 84.99% | 10.02% | -4.13 | 8-2 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 10-7 | 1670.22 | 1220.13 | 86.34% | 8.69% | +3.50 | 9-2 |
| 1969-12-13 | Baltimore Colts | W 27-10 | 1673.72 | 1623.50 | 62.51% | 32.41% | +30.30 | 10-2 |
| 1969-12-21 | Washington Redskins | W 20-10 | 1704.02 | 1506.46 | 77.94% | 17.02% | +12.42 | 11-2 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 13-16 | 1458.61 | 1409.05 | 46.02% | 48.88% | -17.81 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | New York Giants | W 24-0 | 1440.80 | 1484.70 | 49.70% | 45.21% | +49.53 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 28-21 | 1490.33 | 1594.09 | 26.04% | 68.89% | +40.28 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-28 | 1530.61 | 1565.10 | 51.04% | 43.87% | -37.63 | 2-2 |
| 1969-10-19 | Chicago Bears | W 13-7 | 1492.98 | 1390.95 | 68.69% | 26.24% | +14.67 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 10-24 | 1507.65 | 1683.09 | 18.90% | 76.05% | -16.28 | 3-3 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 26-14 | 1491.37 | 1403.45 | 51.51% | 43.39% | +33.68 | 4-3 |
| 1969-11-09 | Atlanta Falcons | W 27-21 | 1525.05 | 1372.37 | 73.95% | 20.99% | +11.81 | 5-3 |
| 1969-11-16 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 20-0 | 1536.86 | 1462.09 | 65.53% | 29.39% | +29.90 | 6-3 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 16-10 | 1566.76 | 1572.16 | 38.31% | 56.60% | +30.71 | 7-3 |
| 1969-11-27 | Minnesota Vikings | L 0-27 | 1597.47 | 1773.29 | 31.59% | 63.33% | -37.25 | 7-4 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Baltimore Colts | T 17-17 | 1560.22 | 1625.32 | 30.56% | 64.36% | +1.82 | 7-4 |
| 1969-12-14 | Los Angeles Rams | W 28-0 | 1562.04 | 1734.30 | 32.03% | 62.89% | +73.58 | 8-4 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ Chicago Bears | W 20-3 | 1635.62 | 1281.71 | 80.78% | 14.20% | +13.54 | 9-4 |
| 1969-09-21 | Chicago Bears | W 17-0 | 1554.41 | 1490.40 | 64.23% | 30.69% | +28.75 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | San Francisco 49ers | W 14-7 | 1583.16 | 1455.65 | 71.44% | 23.49% | +14.23 | 2-0 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 7-19 | 1597.39 | 1579.49 | 41.53% | 53.38% | -32.29 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ Detroit Lions | W 28-17 | 1565.10 | 1530.61 | 43.87% | 51.04% | +37.63 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 21-34 | 1602.73 | 1668.94 | 30.42% | 64.50% | -24.93 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-26 | Atlanta Falcons | W 28-10 | 1577.80 | 1415.57 | 74.85% | 20.09% | +19.59 | 4-2 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 38-34 | 1597.39 | 1319.95 | 74.50% | 20.45% | +9.40 | 5-2 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 6-14 | 1606.79 | 1610.97 | 38.47% | 56.44% | -24.51 | 5-3 |
| 1969-11-16 | Minnesota Vikings | L 7-9 | 1582.28 | 1758.56 | 31.53% | 63.39% | -10.12 | 5-4 |
| 1969-11-23 | Detroit Lions | L 10-16 | 1572.16 | 1566.76 | 56.60% | 38.31% | -30.72 | 5-5 |
| 1969-11-30 | New York Giants | W 20-10 | 1541.44 | 1344.13 | 77.92% | 17.04% | +12.43 | 6-5 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-20 | 1553.87 | 1640.94 | 27.94% | 66.99% | -22.95 | 6-6 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Chicago Bears | W 21-3 | 1530.92 | 1306.80 | 69.03% | 25.90% | +25.09 | 7-6 |
| 1969-12-21 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 45-28 | 1556.01 | 1346.68 | 78.88% | 16.09% | +15.31 | 8-6 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 27-20 | 1591.79 | 1660.85 | 30.08% | 64.85% | +37.92 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | Atlanta Falcons | W 17-7 | 1629.71 | 1405.38 | 80.02% | 14.95% | +10.93 | 2-0 |
| 1969-10-05 | New Orleans Saints | W 36-17 | 1640.64 | 1388.10 | 81.98% | 13.01% | +13.13 | 3-0 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 27-21 | 1653.77 | 1440.80 | 67.78% | 27.15% | +15.17 | 4-0 |
| 1969-10-19 | Green Bay Packers | W 34-21 | 1668.94 | 1602.73 | 64.50% | 30.42% | +24.92 | 5-0 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Chicago Bears | W 9-7 | 1693.86 | 1376.27 | 78.02% | 16.94% | +5.53 | 6-0 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 38-6 | 1699.39 | 1395.98 | 76.83% | 18.12% | +23.61 | 7-0 |
| 1969-11-09 | San Francisco 49ers | W 41-30 | 1723.00 | 1369.78 | 87.31% | 7.73% | +5.97 | 8-0 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 23-17 | 1728.97 | 1418.82 | 77.40% | 17.55% | +9.91 | 9-0 |
| 1969-11-23 | Dallas Cowboys | W 24-23 | 1738.88 | 1681.50 | 63.41% | 31.51% | +7.16 | 10-0 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ Washington Redskins | W 24-13 | 1746.04 | 1491.68 | 72.24% | 22.70% | +17.25 | 11-0 |
| 1969-12-07 | Minnesota Vikings | L 13-20 | 1763.29 | 1810.54 | 49.22% | 45.69% | -28.99 | 11-1 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-28 | 1734.30 | 1562.04 | 62.89% | 32.03% | -73.58 | 11-2 |
| 1969-12-21 | Baltimore Colts | L 7-13 | 1660.72 | 1593.20 | 64.66% | 30.26% | -35.00 | 11-3 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ New York Giants | L 23-24 | 1512.94 | 1474.77 | 44.40% | 50.51% | -9.93 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | Baltimore Colts | W 52-14 | 1503.01 | 1622.92 | 38.93% | 55.99% | +76.48 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | Green Bay Packers | W 19-7 | 1579.49 | 1597.39 | 53.38% | 41.53% | +32.29 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ Chicago Bears | W 31-0 | 1611.78 | 1429.95 | 64.08% | 30.84% | +39.01 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-10 | 1650.79 | 1498.82 | 60.28% | 34.63% | +32.30 | 4-1 |
| 1969-10-26 | Detroit Lions | W 24-10 | 1683.09 | 1507.65 | 76.05% | 18.90% | +16.27 | 5-1 |
| 1969-11-02 | Chicago Bears | W 31-14 | 1699.36 | 1370.75 | 86.22% | 8.80% | +8.44 | 6-1 |
| 1969-11-09 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 51-3 | 1707.80 | 1656.79 | 62.61% | 32.31% | +50.76 | 7-1 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 9-7 | 1758.56 | 1582.28 | 63.39% | 31.53% | +10.12 | 8-1 |
| 1969-11-23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 52-14 | 1768.68 | 1253.47 | 91.96% | 3.20% | +4.61 | 9-1 |
| 1969-11-27 | @ Detroit Lions | W 27-0 | 1773.29 | 1597.47 | 63.33% | 31.59% | +37.25 | 10-1 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 20-13 | 1810.54 | 1763.29 | 45.69% | 49.22% | +28.99 | 11-1 |
| 1969-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers | W 10-7 | 1839.53 | 1410.81 | 89.94% | 5.15% | +2.08 | 12-1 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 3-10 | 1841.61 | 1482.23 | 81.16% | 13.82% | -47.55 | 12-2 |
| 1969-09-21 | Washington Redskins | L 20-26 | 1429.17 | 1442.93 | 53.96% | 40.95% | -29.33 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | Dallas Cowboys | L 17-21 | 1399.84 | 1625.80 | 25.69% | 69.24% | -11.74 | 0-2 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 17-36 | 1388.10 | 1640.64 | 13.01% | 81.98% | -13.13 | 0-3 |
| 1969-10-12 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-27 | 1374.97 | 1553.82 | 31.21% | 63.71% | -22.40 | 0-4 |
| 1969-10-19 | Baltimore Colts | L 10-30 | 1352.57 | 1576.40 | 25.93% | 69.00% | -26.49 | 0-5 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 10-13 | 1326.08 | 1380.82 | 31.84% | 63.08% | -12.51 | 0-6 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 51-42 | 1313.57 | 1469.05 | 20.72% | 74.22% | +49.23 | 1-6 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 17-33 | 1362.80 | 1642.65 | 11.33% | 83.67% | -10.51 | 1-7 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ New York Giants | W 25-24 | 1352.29 | 1366.12 | 37.16% | 57.75% | +12.78 | 2-7 |
| 1969-11-23 | San Francisco 49ers | W 43-38 | 1365.07 | 1392.13 | 52.09% | 42.82% | +21.47 | 3-7 |
| 1969-11-30 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 26-17 | 1386.54 | 1435.03 | 49.04% | 45.87% | +30.74 | 4-7 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 17-45 | 1417.28 | 1375.36 | 44.93% | 49.98% | -53.17 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-17 | 1364.11 | 1497.37 | 22.90% | 72.03% | -9.09 | 4-9 |
| 1969-12-21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 27-24 | 1355.02 | 1203.22 | 73.87% | 21.07% | +8.38 | 5-9 |
| 1969-09-21 | Minnesota Vikings | W 24-23 | 1474.77 | 1512.94 | 50.51% | 44.40% | +9.93 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-24 | 1484.70 | 1440.80 | 45.21% | 49.70% | -49.52 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | Chicago Bears | W 28-24 | 1435.18 | 1448.31 | 54.05% | 40.86% | +18.36 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 10-7 | 1453.54 | 1360.20 | 67.71% | 27.22% | +10.75 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-20 | 1464.29 | 1506.45 | 33.43% | 61.48% | -18.55 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-27 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 3-25 | 1445.74 | 1700.43 | 12.87% | 82.12% | -13.98 | 3-3 |
| 1969-11-02 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 20-23 | 1431.76 | 1393.34 | 61.00% | 33.92% | -23.37 | 3-4 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-42 | 1408.39 | 1419.82 | 37.49% | 57.42% | -42.27 | 3-5 |
| 1969-11-16 | New Orleans Saints | L 24-25 | 1366.12 | 1352.29 | 57.75% | 37.16% | -12.78 | 3-6 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-28 | 1353.34 | 1622.43 | 11.97% | 83.03% | -9.21 | 3-7 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-20 | 1344.13 | 1541.44 | 17.04% | 77.92% | -12.42 | 3-8 |
| 1969-12-07 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 49-6 | 1331.71 | 1434.80 | 41.26% | 53.65% | +78.07 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 21-17 | 1409.78 | 1216.63 | 65.45% | 29.47% | +13.40 | 5-8 |
| 1969-12-21 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-14 | 1423.18 | 1673.94 | 23.06% | 71.88% | +57.28 | 6-8 |
| 1969-09-21 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-27 | 1428.91 | 1560.22 | 37.38% | 57.54% | -22.30 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 41-27 | 1406.61 | 1426.85 | 53.05% | 41.86% | +35.15 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | Dallas Cowboys | L 7-38 | 1441.76 | 1637.54 | 29.15% | 65.77% | -36.94 | 1-2 |
| 1969-10-13 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 20-24 | 1404.82 | 1567.17 | 20.08% | 74.87% | -9.23 | 1-3 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 14-49 | 1395.59 | 1685.66 | 10.75% | 84.25% | -14.77 | 1-4 |
| 1969-10-26 | New Orleans Saints | W 13-10 | 1380.82 | 1326.08 | 63.08% | 31.84% | +12.52 | 2-4 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ New York Giants | W 23-20 | 1393.34 | 1431.76 | 33.92% | 61.00% | +23.37 | 3-4 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Washington Redskins | T 28-28 | 1416.71 | 1504.23 | 27.89% | 67.04% | +2.11 | 3-4 |
| 1969-11-16 | Los Angeles Rams | L 17-23 | 1418.82 | 1728.97 | 17.55% | 77.40% | -9.91 | 3-5 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 34-30 | 1408.91 | 1432.19 | 35.90% | 59.01% | +26.12 | 4-5 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 17-26 | 1435.03 | 1386.54 | 45.87% | 49.04% | -30.75 | 4-6 |
| 1969-12-07 | Washington Redskins | L 29-34 | 1404.28 | 1474.43 | 45.93% | 48.98% | -22.94 | 4-7 |
| 1969-12-14 | Atlanta Falcons | L 3-27 | 1381.34 | 1428.53 | 49.22% | 45.68% | -53.70 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 13-14 | 1327.64 | 1408.73 | 28.64% | 66.29% | -6.52 | 4-9 |
| 1969-09-21 | Detroit Lions | W 16-13 | 1409.05 | 1458.61 | 48.88% | 46.02% | +17.80 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 27-41 | 1426.85 | 1406.61 | 41.86% | 53.05% | -35.14 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 14-27 | 1391.71 | 1512.48 | 38.81% | 56.10% | -31.51 | 1-2 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ New York Giants | L 7-10 | 1360.20 | 1453.54 | 27.22% | 67.71% | -10.75 | 1-3 |
| 1969-10-18 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 31-42 | 1349.45 | 1576.23 | 14.78% | 80.20% | -11.33 | 1-4 |
| 1969-10-26 | Washington Redskins | L 7-14 | 1338.12 | 1525.00 | 30.22% | 64.70% | -18.17 | 1-5 |
| 1969-11-02 | Green Bay Packers | L 34-38 | 1319.95 | 1597.39 | 20.45% | 74.50% | -9.40 | 1-6 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-38 | 1310.55 | 1362.31 | 32.21% | 62.70% | -40.68 | 1-7 |
| 1969-11-16 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 3-24 | 1269.87 | 1606.03 | 15.49% | 79.48% | -16.40 | 1-8 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 14-52 | 1253.47 | 1768.68 | 3.20% | 91.96% | -4.60 | 1-9 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 10-47 | 1248.87 | 1406.06 | 20.56% | 74.38% | -28.74 | 1-10 |
| 1969-12-07 | Dallas Cowboys | L 7-10 | 1220.13 | 1670.22 | 8.69% | 86.34% | -3.50 | 1-11 |
| 1969-12-14 | New York Giants | L 17-21 | 1216.63 | 1409.78 | 29.47% | 65.45% | -13.41 | 1-12 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 24-27 | 1203.22 | 1355.02 | 21.07% | 73.87% | -8.38 | 1-13 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 12-24 | 1500.70 | 1360.33 | 58.75% | 36.16% | -45.05 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-14 | 1455.65 | 1583.16 | 23.49% | 71.44% | -14.24 | 0-2 |
| 1969-10-05 | Washington Redskins | T 17-17 | 1441.41 | 1460.68 | 53.19% | 41.72% | -0.61 | 0-2 |
| 1969-10-12 | Los Angeles Rams | L 21-27 | 1440.80 | 1653.77 | 27.15% | 67.78% | -15.17 | 0-3 |
| 1969-10-19 | Atlanta Falcons | L 7-21 | 1425.63 | 1362.54 | 64.12% | 30.80% | -53.03 | 0-4 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 24-21 | 1372.60 | 1602.88 | 14.52% | 80.45% | +30.85 | 1-4 |
| 1969-11-02 | Detroit Lions | L 14-26 | 1403.45 | 1491.37 | 43.39% | 51.51% | -33.67 | 1-5 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 30-41 | 1369.78 | 1723.00 | 7.73% | 87.31% | -5.97 | 1-6 |
| 1969-11-16 | Baltimore Colts | W 20-17 | 1363.81 | 1635.48 | 20.99% | 73.95% | +28.32 | 2-6 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 38-43 | 1392.13 | 1365.07 | 42.82% | 52.09% | -21.47 | 2-7 |
| 1969-11-27 | @ Dallas Cowboys | T 24-24 | 1370.66 | 1674.35 | 10.02% | 84.99% | +4.13 | 2-7 |
| 1969-12-06 | Chicago Bears | W 42-21 | 1374.79 | 1342.82 | 60.16% | 34.76% | +36.02 | 3-7 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 7-10 | 1410.81 | 1839.53 | 5.15% | 89.94% | -2.08 | 3-8 |
| 1969-12-21 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 14-13 | 1408.73 | 1327.64 | 66.29% | 28.64% | +6.52 | 4-8 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 3-24 | 1531.29 | 1593.65 | 30.89% | 64.02% | -32.16 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | Chicago Bears | W 20-17 | 1499.13 | 1461.65 | 60.88% | 34.04% | +13.35 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 27-14 | 1512.48 | 1391.71 | 56.10% | 38.81% | +31.50 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ Washington Redskins | L 17-33 | 1543.98 | 1461.29 | 50.77% | 44.14% | -45.16 | 2-2 |
| 1969-10-19 | Minnesota Vikings | L 10-27 | 1498.82 | 1650.79 | 34.63% | 60.28% | -32.29 | 2-3 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | T 21-21 | 1466.53 | 1587.56 | 24.17% | 70.76% | +2.52 | 2-3 |
| 1969-11-02 | New Orleans Saints | L 42-51 | 1469.05 | 1313.57 | 74.22% | 20.72% | -49.23 | 2-4 |
| 1969-11-09 | New York Giants | W 42-17 | 1419.82 | 1408.39 | 57.42% | 37.49% | +42.27 | 3-4 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-20 | 1462.09 | 1536.86 | 29.39% | 65.53% | -29.90 | 3-5 |
| 1969-11-23 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 30-34 | 1432.19 | 1408.91 | 59.01% | 35.90% | -26.13 | 3-6 |
| 1969-11-30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 47-10 | 1406.06 | 1248.87 | 74.38% | 20.56% | +28.74 | 4-6 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ New York Giants | L 6-49 | 1434.80 | 1331.71 | 53.65% | 41.26% | -78.07 | 4-7 |
| 1969-12-14 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 21-27 | 1356.73 | 1663.89 | 17.80% | 77.15% | -10.05 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 28-45 | 1346.68 | 1556.01 | 16.09% | 78.88% | -15.31 | 4-9 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 26-20 | 1442.93 | 1429.17 | 40.95% | 53.96% | +29.32 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 23-27 | 1472.25 | 1582.52 | 25.33% | 69.60% | -11.57 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ San Francisco 49ers | T 17-17 | 1460.68 | 1441.41 | 41.72% | 53.19% | +0.61 | 1-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 33-17 | 1461.29 | 1543.98 | 44.14% | 50.77% | +45.16 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-19 | New York Giants | W 20-14 | 1506.45 | 1464.29 | 61.48% | 33.43% | +18.55 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 14-7 | 1525.00 | 1338.12 | 64.70% | 30.22% | +18.17 | 4-1 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 17-41 | 1543.17 | 1572.03 | 35.16% | 59.75% | -38.94 | 4-2 |
| 1969-11-09 | Philadelphia Eagles | T 28-28 | 1504.23 | 1416.71 | 67.04% | 27.89% | -2.11 | 4-2 |
| 1969-11-16 | Dallas Cowboys | L 28-41 | 1502.12 | 1653.16 | 34.75% | 60.16% | -28.34 | 4-3 |
| 1969-11-23 | Atlanta Falcons | W 27-20 | 1473.78 | 1402.06 | 65.17% | 29.75% | +17.90 | 5-3 |
| 1969-11-30 | Los Angeles Rams | L 13-24 | 1491.68 | 1746.04 | 22.70% | 72.24% | -17.25 | 5-4 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 34-29 | 1474.43 | 1404.28 | 48.98% | 45.93% | +22.94 | 6-4 |
| 1969-12-14 | New Orleans Saints | W 17-14 | 1497.37 | 1364.11 | 72.03% | 22.90% | +9.09 | 7-4 |
| 1969-12-21 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 10-20 | 1506.46 | 1704.02 | 17.02% | 77.94% | -12.41 | 7-5 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-12-28 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 38-14 | 1616.66 | 1716.44 | 28.56% | 71.44% | +74.10 | 1-0 |
| 1970-01-04 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 7-27 | 1690.76 | 1801.84 | 27.25% | 72.75% | -25.80 | 1-1 |
| 1969-12-28 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 14-38 | 1716.44 | 1616.66 | 71.44% | 28.56% | -74.10 | 0-1 |
| 1969-12-27 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 20-23 | 1625.72 | 1794.06 | 21.22% | 78.78% | -7.79 | 0-1 |
| 1969-12-27 | Los Angeles Rams | W 23-20 | 1794.06 | 1625.72 | 78.78% | 21.22% | +7.78 | 1-0 |
| 1970-01-04 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-7 | 1801.84 | 1690.76 | 72.75% | 27.25% | +25.80 | 2-0 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1969-12-21 | 13.82% | @ Atlanta Falcons | 1482.23 | 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 1841.61 | 3 |
| 2 | 1969-10-26 | 14.52% | San Francisco 49ers | 1372.60 | 24 | @ Baltimore Colts | 1602.88 | 21 |
| 3 | 1969-11-02 | 20.72% | New Orleans Saints | 1313.57 | 51 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1469.05 | 42 |
| 4 | 1969-11-16 | 20.99% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1363.81 | 20 | Baltimore Colts | 1635.48 | 17 |
| 5 | 1969-12-21 | 23.06% | @ New York Giants | 1423.18 | 27 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1673.94 | 14 |
| 6 | 1969-10-05 | 26.04% | Detroit Lions | 1490.33 | 28 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1594.09 | 21 |
| 7 | 1969-12-28 * | 28.56% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1616.66 | 38 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1716.44 | 14 |
| 8 | 1969-09-21 | 30.08% | Los Angeles Rams | 1591.79 | 27 | @ Baltimore Colts | 1660.85 | 20 |
| 9 | 1969-12-21 | 30.26% | Baltimore Colts | 1593.20 | 13 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1660.72 | 7 |
| 10 | 1969-10-19 | 30.80% | Atlanta Falcons | 1362.54 | 21 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1425.63 | 7 |
| 11 | 1969-12-14 | 32.03% | @ Detroit Lions | 1562.04 | 28 | Los Angeles Rams | 1734.30 | 0 |
| 12 | 1969-11-02 | 33.92% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1393.34 | 23 | @ New York Giants | 1431.76 | 20 |
| 13 | 1969-11-23 | 35.90% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1408.91 | 34 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1432.19 | 30 |
| 14 | 1969-09-21 | 36.16% | @ Atlanta Falcons | 1360.33 | 24 | San Francisco 49ers | 1500.70 | 12 |
| 15 | 1969-11-16 | 37.16% | New Orleans Saints | 1352.29 | 25 | @ New York Giants | 1366.12 | 24 |
| 16 | 1969-11-02 | 37.64% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1585.03 | 42 | Dallas Cowboys | 1714.41 | 10 |
| 17 | 1969-11-23 | 38.31% | Detroit Lions | 1566.76 | 16 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1572.16 | 10 |
| 18 | 1969-09-28 | 38.93% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1503.01 | 52 | Baltimore Colts | 1622.92 | 14 |
| 19 | 1969-09-21 | 40.95% | Washington Redskins | 1442.93 | 26 | @ New Orleans Saints | 1429.17 | 20 |
| 20 | 1969-12-07 | 41.26% | @ New York Giants | 1331.71 | 49 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1434.80 | 6 |
| 21 | 1969-10-12 | 43.87% | Green Bay Packers | 1565.10 | 28 | @ Detroit Lions | 1530.61 | 17 |
| 22 | 1969-10-12 | 44.14% | @ Washington Redskins | 1461.29 | 33 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1543.98 | 17 |
| 23 | 1969-12-14 | 45.68% | Atlanta Falcons | 1428.53 | 27 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1381.34 | 3 |
| 24 | 1969-12-07 | 45.69% | Minnesota Vikings | 1810.54 | 20 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1763.29 | 13 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1969-12-07 | 78.07 | @ New York Giants | 49 | 1331.71 | 41.26% | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 1434.80 | 53.65% |
| 2 | 1969-09-28 | 76.48 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 52 | 1503.01 | 38.93% | Baltimore Colts | 14 | 1622.92 | 55.99% |
| 3 | 1969-12-28 * | 74.10 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 38 | 1616.66 | 28.56% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 14 | 1716.44 | 71.44% |
| 4 | 1969-12-14 | 73.58 | @ Detroit Lions | 28 | 1562.04 | 32.03% | Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 1734.30 | 62.89% |
| 5 | 1969-11-02 | 71.76 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 42 | 1585.03 | 37.64% | Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 1714.41 | 57.28% |
| 6 | 1969-12-21 | 57.28 | @ New York Giants | 27 | 1423.18 | 23.06% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 14 | 1673.94 | 71.88% |
| 7 | 1969-12-14 | 53.70 | Atlanta Falcons | 27 | 1428.53 | 45.68% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 1381.34 | 49.22% |
| 8 | 1969-12-07 | 53.17 | @ Atlanta Falcons | 45 | 1375.36 | 49.98% | New Orleans Saints | 17 | 1417.28 | 44.93% |
| 9 | 1969-10-19 | 53.03 | Atlanta Falcons | 21 | 1362.54 | 30.80% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 1425.63 | 64.12% |
| 10 | 1969-11-09 | 50.76 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 51 | 1707.80 | 62.61% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 3 | 1656.79 | 32.31% |
| 11 | 1969-09-28 | 49.53 | @ Detroit Lions | 24 | 1440.80 | 49.70% | New York Giants | 0 | 1484.70 | 45.21% |
| 12 | 1969-11-02 | 49.23 | New Orleans Saints | 51 | 1313.57 | 20.72% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 42 | 1469.05 | 74.22% |
| 13 | 1969-12-21 | 47.55 | @ Atlanta Falcons | 10 | 1482.23 | 13.82% | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 1841.61 | 81.16% |
| 14 | 1969-10-12 | 45.16 | @ Washington Redskins | 33 | 1461.29 | 44.14% | St. Louis Cardinals | 17 | 1543.98 | 50.77% |
| 15 | 1969-09-21 | 45.05 | @ Atlanta Falcons | 24 | 1360.33 | 36.16% | San Francisco 49ers | 12 | 1500.70 | 58.75% |
| 16 | 1969-11-09 | 42.27 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 42 | 1419.82 | 57.42% | New York Giants | 17 | 1408.39 | 37.49% |
| 17 | 1969-11-16 | 41.50 | @ Atlanta Falcons | 48 | 1360.56 | 49.91% | Chicago Bears | 31 | 1402.98 | 45.00% |
| 18 | 1969-11-09 | 40.68 | @ Chicago Bears | 38 | 1362.31 | 62.70% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 1310.55 | 32.21% |
| 19 | 1969-10-05 | 40.28 | Detroit Lions | 28 | 1490.33 | 26.04% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 21 | 1594.09 | 68.89% |
| 20 | 1969-10-12 | 39.01 | Minnesota Vikings | 31 | 1611.78 | 64.08% | @ Chicago Bears | 0 | 1429.95 | 30.84% |
| 21 | 1969-11-02 | 38.94 | @ Baltimore Colts | 41 | 1572.03 | 59.75% | Washington Redskins | 17 | 1543.17 | 35.16% |
| 22 | 1969-09-21 | 37.93 | Los Angeles Rams | 27 | 1591.79 | 30.08% | @ Baltimore Colts | 20 | 1660.85 | 64.85% |
| 23 | 1969-10-12 | 37.63 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1565.10 | 43.87% | @ Detroit Lions | 17 | 1530.61 | 51.04% |
| 24 | 1969-11-27 | 37.25 | Minnesota Vikings | 27 | 1773.29 | 63.33% | @ Detroit Lions | 0 | 1597.47 | 31.59% |
| 25 | 1969-10-05 | 36.94 | Dallas Cowboys | 38 | 1637.54 | 65.77% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 1441.76 | 29.15% |