1968 NFL Season
112 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Baltimore Colts
1st Super Bowl
Runner-Up
Cleveland Browns (1st)
1st SB App.
Last Appearance: 1964
Biggest Overachiever
Baltimore Colts
2.80 wins above expected
13 wins · 10.20 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Philadelphia Eagles
2.86 wins below expected
2 wins · 4.86 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 2 | 0 | .857 | — | 431 | 186 | +245 | 10.26 | +1.74 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 5 | 9 | 0 | .357 | 7 | 249 | 358 | -109 | 5.77 | -0.77 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 9 | 1 | .321 | 7.5 | 246 | 327 | -81 | 5.66 | -1.16 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 12 | 0 | .143 | 10 | 202 | 351 | -149 | 4.86 | -2.86 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 6 | 0 | .571 | — | 282 | 242 | +40 | 6.65 | +1.35 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 7 | 7 | 0 | .500 | 1 | 250 | 333 | -83 | 6.47 | +0.53 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 7 | 1 | .464 | 1.5 | 281 | 227 | +54 | 8.81 | -2.31 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 4 | 8 | 2 | .357 | 3 | 207 | 241 | -34 | 6.70 | -1.70 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns (1st) Division | 10 | 4 | 0 | .714 | — | 394 | 273 | +121 | 8.54 | +1.46 |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 | 4 | 1 | .679 | 0.5 | 325 | 289 | +36 | 6.90 | +2.60 |
| 3 | New York Giants | 7 | 7 | 0 | .500 | 3 | 294 | 325 | -31 | 6.86 | +0.14 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 11 | 1 | .179 | 7.5 | 244 | 397 | -153 | 5.13 | -2.63 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Colts Division | 13 | 1 | 0 | .929 | — | 402 | 144 | +258 | 10.20 | +2.80 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 2.5 | 312 | 200 | +112 | 9.78 | +0.72 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 6 | 1 | .536 | 5.5 | 303 | 310 | -7 | 6.52 | +0.98 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 12 | 0 | .143 | 11 | 170 | 389 | -219 | 2.88 | -0.88 |
Playoff Bracket
Eastern Conference
Western Conference
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | West | Coastal | 1773 | 13 | 10.20 | +2.80 | 99.45% | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Dallas Cowboys | East | Capitol | 1699 | 12 | 10.26 | +1.74 | 94.61% | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| Los Angeles Rams | West | Coastal | 1674 | 10.5 | 9.78 | +0.72 | 72.76% | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | East | Century | 1611 | 10 | 8.54 | +1.46 | 91.08% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Green Bay Packers | West | Central | 1589 | 6.5 | 8.81 | -2.31 | 12.88% | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | East | Century | 1566 | 9.5 | 6.90 | +2.60 | 95.53% | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | West | Central | 1533 | 8 | 6.65 | +1.35 | 89.08% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | Coastal | 1502 | 7.5 | 6.52 | +0.98 | 77.39% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| Chicago Bears | West | Central | 1485 | 7 | 6.47 | +0.53 | 78.03% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| New York Giants | East | Century | 1457 | 7 | 6.86 | +0.14 | 71.27% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Detroit Lions | West | Central | 1420 | 5 | 6.70 | -1.70 | 31.97% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Washington Redskins | East | Capitol | 1400 | 5 | 5.77 | -0.77 | 52.60% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| New Orleans Saints | East | Capitol | 1367 | 4.5 | 5.66 | -1.16 | 32.80% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | Capitol | 1359 | 2 | 4.86 | -2.86 | 11.74% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | Century | 1321 | 2.5 | 5.13 | -2.63 | 8.88% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | West | Coastal | 1245 | 2 | 2.88 | -0.88 | 52.09% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Within Capitol
| Team | Cowboys | Saints | Eagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | — |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
— |
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
Capitol vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Falcons | Colts | Bears | (1st) | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | Giants | Steelers | 49ers | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
—
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
Within Central
| Team | Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
1-0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
Central vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Falcons | Colts | (1st) | Cowboys | Rams | Saints | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | 49ers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
0-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
Within Century
| Team | (1st) | Giants | Steelers | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | — |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
— |
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
0-1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
Century vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Falcons | Colts | Bears | Cowboys | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | Saints | Eagles | 49ers | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
0-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
Within Coastal
| Team | Falcons | Colts | Rams | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | — |
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Baltimore Colts |
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
1-0-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
Coastal vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bears | (1st) | Cowboys | Lions | Packers | Vikings | Saints | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons |
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
| Baltimore Colts |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 0.89% | 1.34% | 1.34% | 1.34% | 0.89% | — | 0.89% | 6.70% |
| 7–13 | 1.34% | 2.68% | 4.91% | 5.80% | 4.02% | 0.89% | 2.68% | 22.32% |
| 14–20 | 1.34% | 4.91% | 6.25% | 4.91% | 4.46% | 1.79% | 0.89% | 24.55% |
| 21–27 | 1.34% | 5.80% | 4.91% | 5.36% | 2.68% | 0.89% | 1.34% | 22.32% |
| 28–34 | 0.89% | 4.02% | 4.46% | 2.68% | 0.89% | 0.45% | 0.45% | 13.84% |
| 35–41 | — | 0.89% | 1.79% | 0.89% | 0.45% | — | — | 4.02% |
| 42+ | 0.89% | 2.68% | 0.89% | 1.34% | 0.45% | — | — | 6.25% |
| Total | 6.70% | 22.32% | 24.55% | 22.32% | 13.84% | 4.02% | 6.25% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.50 | 20.50 | +0.00 |
| SD | 11.07 | 11.07 | 17.56 |
| CV | 0.54 | 0.54 | — |
| Max | 59 | 59 | +46 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -46 |
Games Played: 112
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | 21.43% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 57.14% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 21.43% | 21.43% | 21.43% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 100% |
Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 12.14 | 27.79 | -15.64 |
| SD | 6.55 | 11.16 | 14.79 |
| CV | 0.54 | 0.40 | — |
| Max | 24 | 47 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 13 | -44 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | 14.29% | 28.57% | — | — | — | — | — | 42.86% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| Total | 28.57% | 42.86% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 28.71 | 10.29 | +18.43 |
| SD | 8.22 | 9.11 | 13.38 |
| CV | 0.29 | 0.89 | — |
| Max | 44 | 30 | +44 |
| Min | 16 | 0 | -10 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 21.43% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 35.71% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 42.86% | 7.14% | 28.57% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 100% |
Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.86 | 23.79 | -5.93 |
| SD | 10.14 | 9.52 | 16.39 |
| CV | 0.57 | 0.40 | — |
| Max | 29 | 42 | +13 |
| Min | 0 | 10 | -42 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| Total | — | 28.57% | 14.29% | 50.00% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 28.14 | 19.50 | +8.64 |
| SD | 12.95 | 6.99 | 17.65 |
| CV | 0.46 | 0.36 | — |
| Max | 47 | 28 | +35 |
| Min | 6 | 7 | -21 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | 7.14% | 21.43% | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 42.86% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| Total | 14.29% | 50.00% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 30.79 | 13.29 | +17.50 |
| SD | 11.85 | 8.40 | 14.44 |
| CV | 0.39 | 0.63 | — |
| Max | 59 | 28 | +46 |
| Min | 17 | 3 | -11 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | 7.14% | 35.71% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 7.14% | 35.71% | 35.71% | 14.29% | — | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 14.79 | 17.21 | -2.43 |
| SD | 11.44 | 13.80 | 20.20 |
| CV | 0.77 | 0.80 | — |
| Max | 42 | 59 | +42 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -46 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 28–34 | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 35–41 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 35.71% | 35.71% | 28.57% | — | — | — | 100% |
Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.07 | 16.21 | +3.86 |
| SD | 10.00 | 7.13 | 13.87 |
| CV | 0.50 | 0.44 | — |
| Max | 38 | 27 | +31 |
| Min | 3 | 7 | -13 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | 21.43% | — | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 42.86% |
| 28–34 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 14.29% | 35.71% | 28.57% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 22.29 | 14.29 | +8.00 |
| SD | 8.96 | 7.55 | 13.30 |
| CV | 0.40 | 0.53 | — |
| Max | 45 | 28 | +35 |
| Min | 10 | 3 | -17 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | — | 14.29% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 35.71% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 7.14% | 28.57% | 35.71% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.14 | 17.29 | +2.86 |
| SD | 11.24 | 7.66 | 16.28 |
| CV | 0.56 | 0.44 | — |
| Max | 47 | 31 | +40 |
| Min | 3 | 6 | -28 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | 57.14% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 35.71% | 21.43% | 21.43% | 14.29% | — | 100% |
New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.57 | 23.36 | -5.79 |
| SD | 8.01 | 7.98 | 12.16 |
| CV | 0.46 | 0.34 | — |
| Max | 37 | 38 | +20 |
| Min | 3 | 12 | -22 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 35.71% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 57.14% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
New York Giants — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.00 | 23.21 | -2.21 |
| SD | 13.74 | 8.93 | 17.14 |
| CV | 0.65 | 0.38 | — |
| Max | 48 | 45 | +27 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -35 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | 35.71% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 35.71% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 14.29% | 7.14% | 21.43% | 7.14% | 28.57% | — | 21.43% | 100% |
Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 14.43 | 25.07 | -10.64 |
| SD | 6.64 | 15.21 | 14.44 |
| CV | 0.46 | 0.61 | — |
| Max | 29 | 47 | +12 |
| Min | 3 | 0 | -34 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | 21.43% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 42.86% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | — | 21.43% | 14.29% | 28.57% | 7.14% | 21.43% | 100% |
Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.43 | 28.36 | -10.93 |
| SD | 10.35 | 12.77 | 14.57 |
| CV | 0.59 | 0.45 | — |
| Max | 41 | 45 | +20 |
| Min | 6 | 3 | -35 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 42.86% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | — | 28.57% | 21.43% | 21.43% | 21.43% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.64 | 22.14 | -0.50 |
| SD | 9.89 | 9.84 | 14.60 |
| CV | 0.46 | 0.44 | — |
| Max | 45 | 42 | +18 |
| Min | 10 | 7 | -28 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | — | 14.29% | 35.71% | 35.71% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 100% |
St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 23.21 | 20.64 | +2.57 |
| SD | 11.89 | 6.98 | 16.20 |
| CV | 0.51 | 0.34 | — |
| Max | 45 | 35 | +28 |
| Min | 0 | 10 | -27 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | 57.14% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 21.43% | 7.14% | 21.43% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 100% |
Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.79 | 25.57 | -7.79 |
| SD | 7.34 | 13.69 | 13.45 |
| CV | 0.41 | 0.54 | — |
| Max | 38 | 48 | +11 |
| Min | 7 | 3 | -27 |
Games Played: 14
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Colts | 13 | 10.20 | +2.80 |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 9.5 | 6.90 | +2.60 |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 10.26 | +1.74 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 10 | 8.54 | +1.46 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 6.65 | +1.35 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 4.86 | -2.86 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.5 | 5.13 | -2.63 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 6.5 | 8.81 | -2.31 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 5 | 6.70 | -1.70 |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | 4.5 | 5.66 | -1.16 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 8 | Oct 20 – Dec 8 | 1 in 65 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 4 | Oct 20 – Nov 10 | 1 in 34 |
| 3 | Baltimore Colts | 8 | Oct 27 – Dec 15 | 1 in 24 |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | Oct 13 – Nov 3 | 1 in 19 |
| 5 | New York Giants | 4 | Sep 15 – Oct 6 | 1 in 13 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | Sep 15 – Nov 24 | 1 in 205 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | Sep 15 – Oct 20 | 1 in 19 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 2 | Sep 22 – Sep 29 | 1 in 13 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | Oct 13 – Oct 27 | 1 in 10 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 4 | Oct 27 – Nov 17 | 1 in 8 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 92.36% | 6.29% | 1.15% | 0.20% |
| Washington Redskins | 3.40% | 38.53% | 32.92% | 25.15% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2.78% | 34.91% | 34.83% | 27.48% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.46% | 20.27% | 31.10% | 47.17% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 61.57% | 22.76% | 10.92% | 4.75% |
| Detroit Lions | 13.68% | 26.66% | 29.34% | 30.32% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 13.13% | 26.89% | 29.95% | 30.03% |
| Chicago Bears | 11.62% | 23.69% | 29.79% | 34.90% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 58.89% | 25.07% | 12.23% | 3.81% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 19.56% | 32.22% | 31.14% | 17.08% |
| New York Giants | 17.32% | 31.31% | 33.07% | 18.30% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.23% | 11.40% | 23.56% | 60.81% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 54.84% | 39.04% | 6.05% | 0.07% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 42.34% | 48.69% | 8.83% | 0.14% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2.82% | 12.10% | 78.34% | 6.74% |
| Atlanta Falcons | — | 0.17% | 6.78% | 93.05% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 67.62% | 21.53% | 6.22% | 2.88% | 1.07% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.08% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 19.67% | 36.88% | 19.51% | 11.12% | 6.76% | 3.53% | 1.87% | 0.66% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 4.46% | 14.51% | 20.30% | 18.49% | 15.77% | 12.79% | 8.52% | 5.16% |
| New York Giants | 4.58% | 13.31% | 19.75% | 18.23% | 16.61% | 12.59% | 9.46% | 5.47% |
| Washington Redskins | 1.43% | 4.40% | 11.26% | 16.19% | 17.49% | 17.64% | 16.61% | 14.98% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1.20% | 4.47% | 10.66% | 14.65% | 16.33% | 18.35% | 17.46% | 16.88% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.49% | 3.15% | 6.85% | 9.50% | 13.42% | 16.84% | 23.85% | 25.90% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.55% | 1.75% | 5.45% | 8.94% | 12.55% | 17.76% | 22.13% | 30.87% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 44.98% | 25.96% | 16.99% | 7.77% | 2.80% | 1.21% | 0.27% | 0.02% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 33.86% | 27.45% | 21.45% | 10.03% | 4.55% | 1.90% | 0.73% | 0.03% |
| Green Bay Packers | 14.27% | 26.62% | 23.87% | 16.60% | 9.64% | 5.48% | 3.26% | 0.26% |
| Detroit Lions | 1.87% | 5.76% | 10.45% | 17.59% | 19.49% | 20.25% | 20.50% | 4.09% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.79% | 5.52% | 9.92% | 18.27% | 19.33% | 20.42% | 20.60% | 4.15% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1.72% | 3.92% | 8.29% | 13.85% | 24.06% | 25.88% | 17.36% | 4.92% |
| Chicago Bears | 1.51% | 4.75% | 8.98% | 15.57% | 19.03% | 21.54% | 24.21% | 4.41% |
| Atlanta Falcons | — | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.32% | 1.10% | 3.32% | 13.07% | 82.12% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 29.04% | 27.64% | 15.03% | 11.32% | 5.97% | 4.28% | 2.37% | 1.78% | 0.97% | 0.76% | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.05% | — |
| Baltimore Colts | 29.68% | 21.05% | 16.88% | 10.34% | 8.76% | 5.23% | 3.34% | 1.83% | 1.30% | 0.70% | 0.49% | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.02% | — |
| Los Angeles Rams | 20.94% | 18.65% | 17.62% | 12.44% | 10.70% | 6.94% | 4.89% | 2.88% | 2.04% | 1.12% | 0.65% | 0.66% | 0.21% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.71% | 10.63% | 15.42% | 14.28% | 13.03% | 9.64% | 8.17% | 6.16% | 4.34% | 2.88% | 2.65% | 1.74% | 1.28% | 0.71% | 0.30% | 0.06% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 6.07% | 10.11% | 11.97% | 16.36% | 12.58% | 11.58% | 8.15% | 7.06% | 4.68% | 4.09% | 2.54% | 2.09% | 1.37% | 0.77% | 0.45% | 0.13% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1.05% | 2.25% | 3.85% | 6.46% | 7.64% | 10.28% | 9.01% | 10.54% | 8.51% | 9.44% | 7.87% | 7.23% | 6.47% | 4.75% | 3.38% | 1.27% |
| New York Giants | 0.96% | 2.18% | 3.66% | 6.22% | 7.11% | 9.89% | 9.12% | 9.93% | 9.62% | 9.41% | 8.08% | 6.96% | 6.73% | 5.27% | 3.55% | 1.31% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.91% | 1.75% | 3.47% | 4.43% | 6.66% | 7.62% | 9.36% | 8.86% | 9.72% | 8.69% | 10.12% | 8.54% | 7.46% | 6.83% | 3.88% | 1.70% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.82% | 1.66% | 3.35% | 4.12% | 6.58% | 7.08% | 9.24% | 8.65% | 10.61% | 9.23% | 9.65% | 8.47% | 8.30% | 6.92% | 3.50% | 1.82% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.78% | 1.27% | 2.67% | 3.60% | 5.70% | 6.28% | 8.20% | 8.89% | 11.15% | 10.53% | 10.35% | 9.75% | 7.85% | 6.70% | 4.10% | 2.18% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.59% | 1.39% | 2.78% | 3.91% | 5.75% | 6.14% | 8.78% | 8.08% | 9.68% | 9.40% | 10.50% | 8.98% | 9.63% | 8.19% | 3.94% | 2.26% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.22% | 0.58% | 1.20% | 2.32% | 2.94% | 5.20% | 6.22% | 8.36% | 8.09% | 8.96% | 9.64% | 10.41% | 11.02% | 10.37% | 9.73% | 4.74% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.13% | 0.46% | 1.18% | 2.00% | 3.24% | 4.61% | 6.15% | 7.09% | 7.60% | 9.59% | 9.13% | 10.95% | 10.49% | 11.37% | 11.07% | 4.94% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.05% | 0.21% | 0.46% | 1.28% | 1.84% | 3.08% | 3.80% | 5.11% | 5.83% | 7.54% | 8.09% | 10.73% | 11.89% | 14.71% | 15.30% | 10.08% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.44% | 0.91% | 1.47% | 2.07% | 3.06% | 4.51% | 5.30% | 6.72% | 8.35% | 10.39% | 12.03% | 14.60% | 18.45% | 11.48% |
| Atlanta Falcons | — | — | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.56% | 0.94% | 1.52% | 2.56% | 5.09% | 8.51% | 22.25% | 58.02% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 67.62% | 21.53% | 10.85% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 19.67% | 36.88% | 43.45% |
| New York Giants | 4.58% | 13.31% | 82.11% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 4.46% | 14.51% | 81.03% |
| Washington Redskins | 1.43% | 4.40% | 94.17% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1.20% | 4.47% | 94.33% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.55% | 1.75% | 97.70% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.49% | 3.15% | 96.36% |
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 44.98% | 25.96% | 29.06% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 33.86% | 27.45% | 38.69% |
| Green Bay Packers | 14.27% | 26.62% | 59.11% |
| Detroit Lions | 1.87% | 5.76% | 92.37% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.79% | 5.52% | 92.69% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1.72% | 3.92% | 94.36% |
| Chicago Bears | 1.51% | 4.75% | 93.74% |
| Atlanta Falcons | — | 0.02% | 99.98% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 70.94% | 50.02% | 32.99% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 89.15% | 61.33% | 29.50% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 61.31% | 30.63% | 16.62% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 56.55% | 24.03% | 9.59% |
| Green Bay Packers | 40.89% | 12.91% | 5.56% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 18.97% | 7.00% | 2.40% |
| New York Giants | 17.89% | 4.45% | 0.84% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7.31% | 2.00% | 0.72% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5.64% | 1.66% | 0.53% |
| Chicago Bears | 6.26% | 1.50% | 0.49% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.63% | 1.28% | 0.30% |
| Washington Redskins | 5.83% | 1.32% | 0.26% |
| New Orleans Saints | 5.67% | 0.96% | 0.10% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.30% | 0.43% | 0.05% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.64% | 0.48% | 0.05% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.02% | — | — |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 18.37% | 0.81% | 1.97% | 0.45% | 0.27% | 1.16% | 1.00% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 30.13% | 3.43% | 10.59% | 1.21% | 2.72% | 10.33% | 2.92% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.22% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.04% | |
| New York Giants | 0.78% | 2.77% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.31% | 0.21% | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.03% | |||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.06% | 0.35% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | ||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.93% | 4.90% | 0.17% | 0.55% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.27% | |
| Washington Redskins | 0.32% | 0.76% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.08% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Colts | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 2.70% | 3.46% | 16.40% | 22.59% | 3.06% | 1.81% | ||
| Chicago Bears | 0.37% | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.80% | 0.01% | 0.07% | ||
| Detroit Lions | 0.46% | 0.02% | 0.16% | 0.50% | 0.03% | 0.11% | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 5.61% | 0.21% | 0.54% | 5.52% | 0.30% | 0.73% | ||
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.02% | 13.21% | 1.72% | 2.13% | 10.57% | 1.82% | 1.16% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.82% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.80% | 0.10% | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.45% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.48% | 0.47% | 0.09% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 8.46% | 18.78% | 0.50% | 1.72% | 0.27% | 0.17% | 2.54% | 0.55% | |||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.05% | ||||||||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 3.53% | 0.26% | 0.33% | 1.73% | 3.09% | 0.36% | 0.29% | ||||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 12.19% | 0.64% | 0.52% | 5.00% | 9.62% | 0.78% | 0.75% | ||||||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.04% | |||||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 1.49% | 2.84% | 0.09% | 0.44% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.53% | 0.12% | |||||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.94% | 9.25% | 0.25% | 1.17% | 0.09% | 0.20% | 1.36% | 0.36% | |||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.25% | 0.28% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.03% | ||||||||
| New Orleans Saints | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.02% | ||||||||||
| New York Giants | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.34% | 0.02% | 0.03% | ||||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.14% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.02% | |||||||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.92% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.42% | 0.78% | 0.11% | 0.03% | ||||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 64.31% | 41.55% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 62.71% | 27.90% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 35.69% | 18.23% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 37.29% | 12.32% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 37.29% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 62.71% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 64.31% | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 35.69% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 17.21% | 24.34% | ||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 6.73% | 5.59% | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 16.03% | 11.87% | ||
| Los Angeles Rams | 7.76% | 10.47% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1968-09-14 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 7-47 | 1335.78 | 1454.13 | 31.35% | 63.61% | -27.71 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | Baltimore Colts | L 20-28 | 1308.07 | 1632.05 | 12.27% | 82.81% | -4.94 | 0-2 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 13-28 | 1303.13 | 1485.52 | 24.00% | 70.99% | -13.10 | 0-3 |
| 1968-10-06 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-38 | 1290.03 | 1597.03 | 13.36% | 81.71% | -10.59 | 0-4 |
| 1968-10-13 | New York Giants | W 24-21 | 1279.44 | 1551.43 | 15.87% | 79.18% | +18.68 | 1-4 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 14-27 | 1298.12 | 1684.14 | 8.92% | 86.21% | -4.59 | 1-5 |
| 1968-10-27 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-30 | 1293.53 | 1525.53 | 19.18% | 75.84% | -13.03 | 1-6 |
| 1968-11-03 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 21-41 | 1280.50 | 1373.51 | 34.58% | 60.38% | -21.53 | 1-7 |
| 1968-11-10 | Los Angeles Rams | L 10-17 | 1258.97 | 1665.74 | 8.00% | 87.15% | -3.03 | 1-8 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ Chicago Bears | W 16-13 | 1255.94 | 1506.44 | 17.59% | 77.44% | +18.27 | 2-8 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 12-17 | 1274.21 | 1504.38 | 19.35% | 75.67% | -6.12 | 2-9 |
| 1968-12-01 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 0-44 | 1268.09 | 1743.17 | 5.55% | 89.67% | -5.28 | 2-10 |
| 1968-12-08 | Detroit Lions | L 7-24 | 1262.81 | 1431.40 | 25.48% | 69.51% | -14.77 | 2-11 |
| 1968-12-15 | San Francisco 49ers | L 12-14 | 1248.04 | 1498.89 | 17.56% | 77.47% | -3.52 | 2-12 |
| 1968-09-15 | San Francisco 49ers | W 27-10 | 1615.51 | 1474.58 | 66.35% | 28.62% | +16.54 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 28-20 | 1632.05 | 1308.07 | 82.81% | 12.27% | +4.95 | 2-0 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 41-7 | 1637.00 | 1409.65 | 75.41% | 19.60% | +16.17 | 3-0 |
| 1968-10-06 | Chicago Bears | W 28-7 | 1653.17 | 1483.24 | 69.65% | 25.33% | +16.33 | 4-0 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 42-14 | 1669.50 | 1484.97 | 71.22% | 23.78% | +17.73 | 5-0 |
| 1968-10-20 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-30 | 1687.23 | 1494.52 | 72.06% | 22.93% | -31.01 | 5-1 |
| 1968-10-27 | Los Angeles Rams | W 27-10 | 1656.22 | 1688.74 | 42.83% | 52.12% | +29.39 | 6-1 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ New York Giants | W 26-0 | 1685.61 | 1510.63 | 70.20% | 24.79% | +17.79 | 7-1 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ Detroit Lions | W 27-10 | 1703.40 | 1491.61 | 73.96% | 21.05% | +12.26 | 8-1 |
| 1968-11-17 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-0 | 1715.66 | 1521.04 | 72.26% | 22.74% | +16.66 | 9-1 |
| 1968-11-24 | Minnesota Vikings | W 21-9 | 1732.32 | 1532.20 | 72.81% | 22.19% | +10.85 | 10-1 |
| 1968-12-01 | Atlanta Falcons | W 44-0 | 1743.17 | 1268.09 | 89.67% | 5.55% | +5.27 | 11-1 |
| 1968-12-07 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 16-3 | 1748.44 | 1598.19 | 67.44% | 27.54% | +13.93 | 12-1 |
| 1968-12-15 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 28-24 | 1762.37 | 1684.05 | 58.44% | 36.52% | +10.15 | 13-1 |
| 1968-09-15 | Washington Redskins | L 28-38 | 1532.82 | 1485.25 | 54.23% | 40.72% | -23.42 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-42 | 1509.40 | 1443.96 | 56.70% | 38.26% | -50.12 | 0-2 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 27-17 | 1459.28 | 1516.06 | 39.44% | 55.51% | +23.96 | 1-2 |
| 1968-10-06 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 7-28 | 1483.24 | 1653.17 | 25.33% | 69.65% | -16.33 | 1-3 |
| 1968-10-13 | Detroit Lions | L 10-28 | 1466.91 | 1489.50 | 44.24% | 50.71% | -25.87 | 1-4 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 29-16 | 1441.04 | 1397.30 | 53.70% | 41.25% | +20.57 | 2-4 |
| 1968-10-27 | Minnesota Vikings | W 26-24 | 1461.61 | 1490.58 | 43.33% | 51.62% | +9.98 | 3-4 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 13-10 | 1471.59 | 1626.00 | 27.06% | 67.92% | +16.01 | 4-4 |
| 1968-11-10 | San Francisco 49ers | W 27-19 | 1487.60 | 1495.18 | 46.38% | 48.56% | +18.84 | 5-4 |
| 1968-11-17 | Atlanta Falcons | L 13-16 | 1506.44 | 1255.94 | 77.44% | 17.59% | -18.26 | 5-5 |
| 1968-11-24 | Dallas Cowboys | L 3-34 | 1488.18 | 1652.99 | 25.90% | 69.09% | -20.27 | 5-6 |
| 1968-12-01 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 23-17 | 1467.91 | 1383.18 | 59.29% | 35.67% | +12.15 | 6-6 |
| 1968-12-08 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 17-16 | 1480.06 | 1694.15 | 20.83% | 74.18% | +10.10 | 7-6 |
| 1968-12-15 | Green Bay Packers | L 27-28 | 1490.16 | 1584.26 | 34.44% | 60.52% | -4.80 | 7-7 |
| 1968-09-15 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 24-10 | 1528.57 | 1429.00 | 61.23% | 33.73% | +17.59 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 7-28 | 1546.16 | 1599.18 | 39.96% | 54.99% | -25.35 | 1-1 |
| 1968-09-29 | Los Angeles Rams | L 6-24 | 1520.81 | 1644.91 | 30.64% | 64.33% | -18.19 | 1-2 |
| 1968-10-05 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 31-24 | 1502.62 | 1393.47 | 62.46% | 32.50% | +12.01 | 2-2 |
| 1968-10-13 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 21-27 | 1514.63 | 1422.65 | 60.25% | 34.71% | -20.11 | 2-3 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 30-20 | 1494.52 | 1687.23 | 22.93% | 72.06% | +31.01 | 3-3 |
| 1968-10-27 | Atlanta Falcons | W 30-7 | 1525.53 | 1293.53 | 75.84% | 19.18% | +13.03 | 4-3 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 33-21 | 1538.56 | 1516.33 | 50.66% | 44.29% | +21.14 | 5-3 |
| 1968-11-10 | New Orleans Saints | W 35-17 | 1559.70 | 1414.12 | 66.90% | 28.08% | +16.70 | 6-3 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 45-24 | 1576.40 | 1396.18 | 70.76% | 24.23% | +15.64 | 7-3 |
| 1968-11-24 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 47-13 | 1592.04 | 1326.41 | 78.68% | 16.36% | +13.54 | 8-3 |
| 1968-12-01 | New York Giants | W 45-10 | 1605.58 | 1512.66 | 60.37% | 34.59% | +28.50 | 9-3 |
| 1968-12-08 | @ Washington Redskins | W 24-21 | 1634.08 | 1378.25 | 77.88% | 17.15% | +4.21 | 10-3 |
| 1968-12-14 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 16-27 | 1638.29 | 1538.10 | 61.31% | 33.65% | -27.69 | 10-4 |
| 1968-09-15 | Detroit Lions | W 59-13 | 1566.03 | 1477.10 | 59.85% | 35.11% | +33.15 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 28-7 | 1599.18 | 1546.16 | 54.99% | 39.96% | +25.35 | 2-0 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 45-13 | 1624.53 | 1438.02 | 71.42% | 23.57% | +18.79 | 3-0 |
| 1968-10-06 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-10 | 1643.32 | 1435.11 | 73.61% | 21.39% | +12.46 | 4-0 |
| 1968-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 34-14 | 1655.78 | 1408.63 | 77.16% | 17.87% | +11.33 | 5-0 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 20-7 | 1667.11 | 1503.78 | 68.92% | 26.06% | +13.20 | 6-0 |
| 1968-10-28 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-28 | 1680.31 | 1599.43 | 58.78% | 36.18% | -26.57 | 6-1 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 17-3 | 1653.74 | 1424.40 | 75.59% | 19.42% | +10.29 | 7-1 |
| 1968-11-10 | New York Giants | L 21-27 | 1664.03 | 1492.84 | 69.79% | 25.20% | -23.26 | 7-2 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ Washington Redskins | W 44-24 | 1640.77 | 1410.11 | 75.71% | 19.30% | +12.22 | 8-2 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ Chicago Bears | W 34-3 | 1652.99 | 1488.18 | 69.09% | 25.90% | +20.26 | 9-2 |
| 1968-11-28 | Washington Redskins | W 29-20 | 1673.25 | 1384.48 | 80.43% | 14.62% | +6.24 | 10-2 |
| 1968-12-08 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 28-7 | 1679.49 | 1348.76 | 83.23% | 11.86% | +7.75 | 11-2 |
| 1968-12-15 | @ New York Giants | W 28-10 | 1687.24 | 1468.82 | 74.59% | 20.42% | +12.25 | 12-2 |
| 1968-09-15 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 13-59 | 1477.10 | 1566.03 | 35.11% | 59.85% | -33.14 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | Chicago Bears | W 42-0 | 1443.96 | 1509.40 | 38.26% | 56.70% | +50.12 | 1-1 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 23-17 | 1494.08 | 1618.49 | 30.61% | 64.36% | +21.46 | 2-1 |
| 1968-10-06 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 10-24 | 1515.54 | 1492.10 | 50.83% | 44.12% | -26.04 | 2-2 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ Chicago Bears | W 28-10 | 1489.50 | 1466.91 | 50.71% | 44.24% | +25.86 | 3-2 |
| 1968-10-20 | Green Bay Packers | T 14-14 | 1515.36 | 1600.21 | 35.65% | 59.31% | +0.79 | 3-2 |
| 1968-10-27 | San Francisco 49ers | L 7-14 | 1516.15 | 1498.18 | 50.05% | 44.90% | -18.15 | 3-3 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 7-10 | 1498.00 | 1659.35 | 26.28% | 68.70% | -6.39 | 3-4 |
| 1968-11-10 | Baltimore Colts | L 10-27 | 1491.61 | 1703.40 | 21.05% | 73.96% | -12.27 | 3-5 |
| 1968-11-17 | Minnesota Vikings | L 6-13 | 1479.34 | 1516.81 | 42.13% | 52.82% | -15.39 | 3-6 |
| 1968-11-24 | New Orleans Saints | T 20-20 | 1463.95 | 1382.43 | 58.87% | 36.09% | -0.75 | 3-6 |
| 1968-11-28 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-12 | 1463.20 | 1312.86 | 67.45% | 27.53% | -31.80 | 3-7 |
| 1968-12-08 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 24-7 | 1431.40 | 1262.81 | 69.51% | 25.48% | +14.78 | 4-7 |
| 1968-12-15 | @ Washington Redskins | L 3-14 | 1446.18 | 1374.03 | 57.61% | 37.35% | -26.05 | 4-8 |
| 1968-09-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 30-13 | 1637.83 | 1471.00 | 69.31% | 25.67% | +14.88 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | Minnesota Vikings | L 13-26 | 1652.71 | 1481.84 | 69.75% | 25.23% | -34.22 | 1-1 |
| 1968-09-29 | Detroit Lions | L 17-23 | 1618.49 | 1494.08 | 64.36% | 30.61% | -21.46 | 1-2 |
| 1968-10-06 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 38-7 | 1597.03 | 1290.03 | 81.71% | 13.36% | +10.60 | 2-2 |
| 1968-10-13 | Los Angeles Rams | L 14-16 | 1607.63 | 1676.73 | 37.76% | 57.20% | -7.42 | 2-3 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ Detroit Lions | T 14-14 | 1600.21 | 1515.36 | 59.31% | 35.65% | -0.78 | 2-3 |
| 1968-10-28 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 28-17 | 1599.43 | 1680.31 | 36.18% | 58.78% | +26.57 | 3-3 |
| 1968-11-03 | Chicago Bears | L 10-13 | 1626.00 | 1471.59 | 67.92% | 27.06% | -16.00 | 3-4 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 10-14 | 1610.00 | 1499.76 | 62.60% | 32.37% | -17.05 | 3-5 |
| 1968-11-17 | New Orleans Saints | W 29-7 | 1592.95 | 1397.41 | 72.35% | 22.65% | +14.99 | 4-5 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ Washington Redskins | W 27-7 | 1607.94 | 1397.89 | 73.79% | 21.22% | +13.40 | 5-5 |
| 1968-12-01 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 20-27 | 1621.34 | 1497.52 | 64.29% | 30.68% | -23.15 | 5-6 |
| 1968-12-07 | Baltimore Colts | L 3-16 | 1598.19 | 1748.44 | 27.54% | 67.44% | -13.93 | 5-7 |
| 1968-12-15 | @ Chicago Bears | W 28-27 | 1584.26 | 1490.16 | 60.52% | 34.44% | +4.79 | 6-7 |
| 1968-09-16 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 24-13 | 1613.07 | 1468.81 | 66.74% | 28.23% | +13.13 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 45-10 | 1626.20 | 1428.36 | 72.58% | 22.41% | +18.71 | 2-0 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 24-6 | 1644.91 | 1520.81 | 64.33% | 30.64% | +18.18 | 3-0 |
| 1968-10-06 | San Francisco 49ers | W 24-10 | 1663.09 | 1498.61 | 69.05% | 25.93% | +13.64 | 4-0 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 16-14 | 1676.73 | 1607.63 | 57.20% | 37.76% | +7.41 | 5-0 |
| 1968-10-20 | Atlanta Falcons | W 27-14 | 1684.14 | 1298.12 | 86.21% | 8.92% | +4.60 | 6-0 |
| 1968-10-27 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 10-27 | 1688.74 | 1656.22 | 52.12% | 42.83% | -29.39 | 6-1 |
| 1968-11-03 | Detroit Lions | W 10-7 | 1659.35 | 1498.00 | 68.70% | 26.28% | +6.39 | 7-1 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 17-10 | 1665.74 | 1258.97 | 87.15% | 8.00% | +3.03 | 8-1 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ San Francisco 49ers | T 20-20 | 1668.77 | 1476.34 | 72.03% | 22.96% | -1.64 | 8-1 |
| 1968-11-24 | New York Giants | W 24-21 | 1667.13 | 1519.42 | 67.15% | 27.83% | +6.76 | 9-1 |
| 1968-12-01 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 31-3 | 1673.89 | 1521.36 | 67.70% | 27.28% | +20.26 | 10-1 |
| 1968-12-08 | Chicago Bears | L 16-17 | 1694.15 | 1480.06 | 74.18% | 20.83% | -10.10 | 10-2 |
| 1968-12-15 | Baltimore Colts | L 24-28 | 1684.05 | 1762.37 | 36.52% | 58.44% | -10.15 | 10-3 |
| 1968-09-14 | Atlanta Falcons | W 47-7 | 1454.13 | 1335.78 | 63.61% | 31.35% | +27.71 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 26-13 | 1481.84 | 1652.71 | 25.23% | 69.75% | +34.22 | 2-0 |
| 1968-09-29 | Chicago Bears | L 17-27 | 1516.06 | 1459.28 | 55.51% | 39.44% | -23.96 | 2-1 |
| 1968-10-06 | Detroit Lions | W 24-10 | 1492.10 | 1515.54 | 44.12% | 50.83% | +26.04 | 3-1 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 17-20 | 1518.14 | 1421.53 | 60.85% | 34.11% | -14.36 | 3-2 |
| 1968-10-20 | Dallas Cowboys | L 7-20 | 1503.78 | 1667.11 | 26.06% | 68.92% | -13.20 | 3-3 |
| 1968-10-27 | @ Chicago Bears | L 24-26 | 1490.58 | 1461.61 | 51.62% | 43.33% | -9.99 | 3-4 |
| 1968-11-03 | Washington Redskins | W 27-14 | 1480.59 | 1415.74 | 56.62% | 38.34% | +19.17 | 4-4 |
| 1968-11-10 | Green Bay Packers | W 14-10 | 1499.76 | 1610.00 | 32.37% | 62.60% | +17.05 | 5-4 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ Detroit Lions | W 13-6 | 1516.81 | 1479.34 | 52.82% | 42.13% | +15.39 | 6-4 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 9-21 | 1532.20 | 1732.32 | 22.19% | 72.81% | -10.84 | 6-5 |
| 1968-12-01 | Los Angeles Rams | L 3-31 | 1521.36 | 1673.89 | 27.28% | 67.70% | -20.26 | 6-6 |
| 1968-12-08 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 30-20 | 1501.10 | 1520.67 | 44.67% | 50.28% | +21.78 | 7-6 |
| 1968-12-15 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 24-17 | 1522.88 | 1368.95 | 67.86% | 27.12% | +10.07 | 8-6 |
| 1968-09-15 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 10-24 | 1429.00 | 1528.57 | 33.73% | 61.23% | -17.59 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | Washington Redskins | W 37-17 | 1411.41 | 1508.67 | 34.03% | 60.94% | +37.12 | 1-1 |
| 1968-09-29 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 20-21 | 1448.53 | 1428.21 | 50.39% | 44.56% | -6.90 | 1-2 |
| 1968-10-06 | @ New York Giants | L 21-38 | 1441.63 | 1531.34 | 35.01% | 59.95% | -20.10 | 1-3 |
| 1968-10-13 | Minnesota Vikings | W 20-17 | 1421.53 | 1518.14 | 34.11% | 60.85% | +14.36 | 2-3 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 16-12 | 1435.89 | 1372.41 | 56.43% | 38.52% | +10.68 | 3-3 |
| 1968-10-27 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-31 | 1446.57 | 1478.33 | 42.94% | 52.01% | -22.17 | 3-4 |
| 1968-11-03 | Dallas Cowboys | L 3-17 | 1424.40 | 1653.74 | 19.42% | 75.59% | -10.28 | 3-5 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-35 | 1414.12 | 1559.70 | 28.08% | 66.90% | -16.71 | 3-6 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-29 | 1397.41 | 1592.95 | 22.65% | 72.35% | -14.98 | 3-7 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ Detroit Lions | T 20-20 | 1382.43 | 1463.95 | 36.09% | 58.87% | +0.75 | 3-7 |
| 1968-12-01 | Chicago Bears | L 17-23 | 1383.18 | 1467.91 | 35.67% | 59.29% | -12.15 | 3-8 |
| 1968-12-08 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 17-29 | 1371.03 | 1344.66 | 51.25% | 43.70% | -24.30 | 3-9 |
| 1968-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-14 | 1346.73 | 1341.01 | 48.30% | 46.65% | +20.28 | 4-9 |
| 1968-09-15 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 34-20 | 1458.16 | 1452.34 | 48.31% | 46.64% | +23.99 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 34-25 | 1482.15 | 1456.12 | 51.20% | 43.75% | +18.10 | 2-0 |
| 1968-09-29 | Washington Redskins | W 48-21 | 1500.25 | 1471.56 | 51.58% | 43.37% | +31.09 | 3-0 |
| 1968-10-06 | New Orleans Saints | W 38-21 | 1531.34 | 1441.63 | 59.95% | 35.01% | +20.09 | 4-0 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 21-24 | 1551.43 | 1279.44 | 79.18% | 15.87% | -18.69 | 4-1 |
| 1968-10-20 | San Francisco 49ers | L 10-26 | 1532.74 | 1467.24 | 56.71% | 38.25% | -30.93 | 4-2 |
| 1968-10-27 | @ Washington Redskins | W 13-10 | 1501.81 | 1424.56 | 58.29% | 36.66% | +8.82 | 5-2 |
| 1968-11-03 | Baltimore Colts | L 0-26 | 1510.63 | 1685.61 | 24.79% | 70.20% | -17.79 | 5-3 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 27-21 | 1492.84 | 1664.03 | 25.20% | 69.79% | +23.26 | 6-3 |
| 1968-11-17 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 7-6 | 1516.10 | 1329.73 | 71.41% | 23.58% | +3.32 | 7-3 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 21-24 | 1519.42 | 1667.13 | 27.83% | 67.15% | -6.76 | 7-4 |
| 1968-12-01 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 10-45 | 1512.66 | 1605.58 | 34.59% | 60.37% | -28.49 | 7-5 |
| 1968-12-08 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 21-28 | 1484.17 | 1522.76 | 41.98% | 52.98% | -15.35 | 7-6 |
| 1968-12-15 | Dallas Cowboys | L 10-28 | 1468.82 | 1687.24 | 20.42% | 74.59% | -12.25 | 7-7 |
| 1968-09-15 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 13-30 | 1471.00 | 1637.83 | 25.67% | 69.31% | -14.88 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | New York Giants | L 25-34 | 1456.12 | 1482.15 | 43.75% | 51.20% | -18.10 | 0-2 |
| 1968-09-29 | Dallas Cowboys | L 13-45 | 1438.02 | 1624.53 | 23.57% | 71.42% | -18.79 | 0-3 |
| 1968-10-06 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-17 | 1419.23 | 1440.47 | 44.43% | 50.52% | -10.60 | 0-4 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 14-34 | 1408.63 | 1655.78 | 17.87% | 77.16% | -11.33 | 0-5 |
| 1968-10-20 | Chicago Bears | L 16-29 | 1397.30 | 1441.04 | 41.25% | 53.70% | -20.56 | 0-6 |
| 1968-10-27 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 3-6 | 1376.74 | 1361.73 | 49.63% | 45.32% | -11.78 | 0-7 |
| 1968-11-03 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-45 | 1364.96 | 1500.50 | 29.26% | 65.71% | -21.69 | 0-8 |
| 1968-11-10 | Washington Redskins | L 10-16 | 1343.27 | 1396.57 | 39.92% | 55.03% | -13.54 | 0-9 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ New York Giants | L 6-7 | 1329.73 | 1516.10 | 23.58% | 71.41% | -3.32 | 0-10 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 13-47 | 1326.41 | 1592.04 | 16.36% | 78.68% | -13.55 | 0-11 |
| 1968-11-28 | @ Detroit Lions | W 12-0 | 1312.86 | 1463.20 | 27.53% | 67.45% | +31.80 | 1-11 |
| 1968-12-08 | New Orleans Saints | W 29-17 | 1344.66 | 1371.03 | 43.70% | 51.25% | +24.29 | 2-11 |
| 1968-12-15 | Minnesota Vikings | L 17-24 | 1368.95 | 1522.88 | 27.12% | 67.86% | -10.07 | 2-12 |
| 1968-09-15 | New York Giants | L 20-34 | 1452.34 | 1458.16 | 46.64% | 48.31% | -23.98 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 10-45 | 1428.36 | 1626.20 | 22.41% | 72.58% | -18.71 | 0-2 |
| 1968-09-29 | Baltimore Colts | L 7-41 | 1409.65 | 1637.00 | 19.60% | 75.41% | -16.18 | 0-3 |
| 1968-10-05 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-31 | 1393.47 | 1502.62 | 32.50% | 62.46% | -12.00 | 0-4 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ Washington Redskins | L 13-16 | 1381.47 | 1451.07 | 37.69% | 57.26% | -9.06 | 0-5 |
| 1968-10-20 | New Orleans Saints | L 12-16 | 1372.41 | 1435.89 | 38.52% | 56.43% | -10.68 | 0-6 |
| 1968-10-27 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 6-3 | 1361.73 | 1376.74 | 45.32% | 49.63% | +11.78 | 1-6 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 41-21 | 1373.51 | 1280.50 | 60.38% | 34.58% | +21.53 | 2-6 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | T 28-28 | 1395.04 | 1522.18 | 30.27% | 64.70% | +1.14 | 2-6 |
| 1968-11-17 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-45 | 1396.18 | 1576.40 | 24.23% | 70.76% | -15.63 | 2-7 |
| 1968-11-24 | San Francisco 49ers | L 28-45 | 1380.55 | 1477.98 | 34.00% | 60.96% | -19.54 | 2-8 |
| 1968-12-01 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 10-20 | 1361.01 | 1510.50 | 27.62% | 67.35% | -12.25 | 2-9 |
| 1968-12-08 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 7-28 | 1348.76 | 1679.49 | 11.86% | 83.23% | -7.75 | 2-10 |
| 1968-12-15 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 14-24 | 1341.01 | 1346.73 | 46.65% | 48.30% | -20.28 | 2-11 |
| 1968-09-15 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 10-27 | 1474.58 | 1615.51 | 28.62% | 66.35% | -16.54 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 35-17 | 1458.04 | 1455.68 | 47.81% | 47.14% | +27.48 | 1-1 |
| 1968-09-29 | Atlanta Falcons | W 28-13 | 1485.52 | 1303.13 | 70.99% | 24.00% | +13.09 | 2-1 |
| 1968-10-06 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 10-24 | 1498.61 | 1663.09 | 25.93% | 69.05% | -13.64 | 2-2 |
| 1968-10-13 | Baltimore Colts | L 14-42 | 1484.97 | 1669.50 | 23.78% | 71.22% | -17.73 | 2-3 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ New York Giants | W 26-10 | 1467.24 | 1532.74 | 38.25% | 56.71% | +30.94 | 3-3 |
| 1968-10-27 | @ Detroit Lions | W 14-7 | 1498.18 | 1516.15 | 44.90% | 50.05% | +18.15 | 4-3 |
| 1968-11-03 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 21-33 | 1516.33 | 1538.56 | 44.29% | 50.66% | -21.15 | 4-4 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ Chicago Bears | L 19-27 | 1495.18 | 1487.60 | 48.56% | 46.38% | -18.84 | 4-5 |
| 1968-11-17 | Los Angeles Rams | T 20-20 | 1476.34 | 1668.77 | 22.96% | 72.03% | +1.64 | 4-5 |
| 1968-11-24 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 45-28 | 1477.98 | 1380.55 | 60.96% | 34.00% | +19.54 | 5-5 |
| 1968-12-01 | Green Bay Packers | W 27-20 | 1497.52 | 1621.34 | 30.68% | 64.29% | +23.15 | 6-5 |
| 1968-12-08 | Minnesota Vikings | L 20-30 | 1520.67 | 1501.10 | 50.28% | 44.67% | -21.78 | 6-6 |
| 1968-12-15 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 14-12 | 1498.89 | 1248.04 | 77.47% | 17.56% | +3.52 | 7-6 |
| 1968-09-16 | Los Angeles Rams | L 13-24 | 1468.81 | 1613.07 | 28.23% | 66.74% | -13.13 | 0-1 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-35 | 1455.68 | 1458.04 | 47.14% | 47.81% | -27.47 | 0-2 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 21-20 | 1428.21 | 1448.53 | 44.56% | 50.39% | +6.90 | 1-2 |
| 1968-10-06 | Dallas Cowboys | L 10-27 | 1435.11 | 1643.32 | 21.39% | 73.61% | -12.46 | 1-3 |
| 1968-10-13 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-21 | 1422.65 | 1514.63 | 34.71% | 60.25% | +20.10 | 2-3 |
| 1968-10-20 | Washington Redskins | W 41-14 | 1442.75 | 1460.13 | 44.98% | 49.97% | +35.58 | 3-3 |
| 1968-10-27 | New Orleans Saints | W 31-17 | 1478.33 | 1446.57 | 52.01% | 42.94% | +22.17 | 4-3 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 45-17 | 1500.50 | 1364.96 | 65.71% | 29.26% | +21.68 | 5-3 |
| 1968-11-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | T 28-28 | 1522.18 | 1395.04 | 64.70% | 30.27% | -1.14 | 5-3 |
| 1968-11-17 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 0-27 | 1521.04 | 1715.66 | 22.74% | 72.26% | -16.66 | 5-4 |
| 1968-11-24 | Atlanta Falcons | W 17-12 | 1504.38 | 1274.21 | 75.67% | 19.35% | +6.12 | 6-4 |
| 1968-12-01 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 20-10 | 1510.50 | 1361.01 | 67.35% | 27.62% | +12.26 | 7-4 |
| 1968-12-08 | @ New York Giants | W 28-21 | 1522.76 | 1484.17 | 52.98% | 41.98% | +15.34 | 8-4 |
| 1968-12-14 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-16 | 1538.10 | 1638.29 | 33.65% | 61.31% | +27.69 | 9-4 |
| 1968-09-15 | @ Chicago Bears | W 38-28 | 1485.25 | 1532.82 | 40.72% | 54.23% | +23.42 | 1-0 |
| 1968-09-22 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 17-37 | 1508.67 | 1411.41 | 60.94% | 34.03% | -37.11 | 1-1 |
| 1968-09-29 | @ New York Giants | L 21-48 | 1471.56 | 1500.25 | 43.37% | 51.58% | -31.09 | 1-2 |
| 1968-10-06 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 17-14 | 1440.47 | 1419.23 | 50.52% | 44.43% | +10.60 | 2-2 |
| 1968-10-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 16-13 | 1451.07 | 1381.47 | 57.26% | 37.69% | +9.06 | 3-2 |
| 1968-10-20 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 14-41 | 1460.13 | 1442.75 | 49.97% | 44.98% | -35.57 | 3-3 |
| 1968-10-27 | New York Giants | L 10-13 | 1424.56 | 1501.81 | 36.66% | 58.29% | -8.82 | 3-4 |
| 1968-11-03 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 14-27 | 1415.74 | 1480.59 | 38.34% | 56.62% | -19.17 | 3-5 |
| 1968-11-10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 16-10 | 1396.57 | 1343.27 | 55.03% | 39.92% | +13.54 | 4-5 |
| 1968-11-17 | Dallas Cowboys | L 24-44 | 1410.11 | 1640.77 | 19.30% | 75.71% | -12.22 | 4-6 |
| 1968-11-24 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-27 | 1397.89 | 1607.94 | 21.22% | 73.79% | -13.41 | 4-7 |
| 1968-11-28 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 20-29 | 1384.48 | 1673.25 | 14.62% | 80.43% | -6.23 | 4-8 |
| 1968-12-08 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 21-24 | 1378.25 | 1634.08 | 17.15% | 77.88% | -4.22 | 4-9 |
| 1968-12-15 | Detroit Lions | W 14-3 | 1374.03 | 1446.18 | 37.35% | 57.61% | +26.05 | 5-9 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1968-12-22 | Minnesota Vikings | W 24-14 | 1772.52 | 1532.95 | 79.88% | 20.12% | +8.30 | 1-0 |
| 1968-12-29 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 34-0 | 1780.82 | 1637.64 | 69.51% | 30.49% | +23.18 | 2-0 |
| 1968-12-21 | Dallas Cowboys | W 31-20 | 1610.60 | 1699.49 | 37.48% | 62.52% | +27.04 | 1-0 |
| 1968-12-29 | Baltimore Colts | L 0-34 | 1637.64 | 1780.82 | 30.49% | 69.51% | -23.18 | 1-1 |
| 1968-12-21 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-31 | 1699.49 | 1610.60 | 62.52% | 37.48% | -27.04 | 0-1 |
| 1968-12-22 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 14-24 | 1532.95 | 1772.52 | 20.12% | 79.88% | -8.30 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1968-10-13 | 15.87% | @ Atlanta Falcons | 1279.44 | 24 | New York Giants | 1551.43 | 21 |
| 2 | 1968-11-17 | 17.59% | Atlanta Falcons | 1255.94 | 16 | @ Chicago Bears | 1506.44 | 13 |
| 3 | 1968-12-08 | 20.83% | Chicago Bears | 1480.06 | 17 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1694.15 | 16 |
| 4 | 1968-10-20 | 22.93% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1494.52 | 30 | @ Baltimore Colts | 1687.23 | 20 |
| 5 | 1968-11-10 | 25.20% | New York Giants | 1492.84 | 27 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1664.03 | 21 |
| 6 | 1968-09-22 | 25.23% | Minnesota Vikings | 1481.84 | 26 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1652.71 | 13 |
| 7 | 1968-11-03 | 27.06% | Chicago Bears | 1471.59 | 13 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1626.00 | 10 |
| 8 | 1968-11-28 | 27.53% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1312.86 | 12 | @ Detroit Lions | 1463.20 | 0 |
| 9 | 1968-09-29 | 30.61% | Detroit Lions | 1494.08 | 23 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1618.49 | 17 |
| 10 | 1968-12-01 | 30.68% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1497.52 | 27 | Green Bay Packers | 1621.34 | 20 |
| 11 | 1968-11-10 | 32.37% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1499.76 | 14 | Green Bay Packers | 1610.00 | 10 |
| 12 | 1968-12-14 | 33.65% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1538.10 | 27 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1638.29 | 16 |
| 13 | 1968-09-22 | 34.03% | @ New Orleans Saints | 1411.41 | 37 | Washington Redskins | 1508.67 | 17 |
| 14 | 1968-10-13 | 34.11% | @ New Orleans Saints | 1421.53 | 20 | Minnesota Vikings | 1518.14 | 17 |
| 15 | 1968-10-13 | 34.71% | St. Louis Cardinals | 1422.65 | 27 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1514.63 | 21 |
| 16 | 1968-10-28 | 36.18% | Green Bay Packers | 1599.43 | 28 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1680.31 | 17 |
| 17 | 1968-12-15 | 37.35% | @ Washington Redskins | 1374.03 | 14 | Detroit Lions | 1446.18 | 3 |
| 18 | 1968-12-21 * | 37.48% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1610.60 | 31 | Dallas Cowboys | 1699.49 | 20 |
| 19 | 1968-10-20 | 38.25% | San Francisco 49ers | 1467.24 | 26 | @ New York Giants | 1532.74 | 10 |
| 20 | 1968-09-22 | 38.26% | @ Detroit Lions | 1443.96 | 42 | Chicago Bears | 1509.40 | 0 |
| 21 | 1968-09-29 | 39.44% | Chicago Bears | 1459.28 | 27 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1516.06 | 17 |
| 22 | 1968-09-15 | 40.72% | Washington Redskins | 1485.25 | 38 | @ Chicago Bears | 1532.82 | 28 |
| 23 | 1968-10-27 | 42.83% | @ Baltimore Colts | 1656.22 | 27 | Los Angeles Rams | 1688.74 | 10 |
| 24 | 1968-10-27 | 43.33% | @ Chicago Bears | 1461.61 | 26 | Minnesota Vikings | 1490.58 | 24 |
| 25 | 1968-12-08 | 43.70% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1344.66 | 29 | New Orleans Saints | 1371.03 | 17 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1968-09-22 | 50.12 | @ Detroit Lions | 42 | 1443.96 | 38.26% | Chicago Bears | 0 | 1509.40 | 56.70% |
| 2 | 1968-09-22 | 37.12 | @ New Orleans Saints | 37 | 1411.41 | 34.03% | Washington Redskins | 17 | 1508.67 | 60.94% |
| 3 | 1968-10-20 | 35.58 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 41 | 1442.75 | 44.98% | Washington Redskins | 14 | 1460.13 | 49.97% |
| 4 | 1968-09-22 | 34.22 | Minnesota Vikings | 26 | 1481.84 | 25.23% | @ Green Bay Packers | 13 | 1652.71 | 69.75% |
| 5 | 1968-09-15 | 33.15 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 59 | 1566.03 | 59.85% | Detroit Lions | 13 | 1477.10 | 35.11% |
| 6 | 1968-11-28 | 31.80 | Philadelphia Eagles | 12 | 1312.86 | 27.53% | @ Detroit Lions | 0 | 1463.20 | 67.45% |
| 7 | 1968-09-29 | 31.09 | @ New York Giants | 48 | 1500.25 | 51.58% | Washington Redskins | 21 | 1471.56 | 43.37% |
| 8 | 1968-10-20 | 31.01 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 30 | 1494.52 | 22.93% | @ Baltimore Colts | 20 | 1687.23 | 72.06% |
| 9 | 1968-10-20 | 30.94 | San Francisco 49ers | 26 | 1467.24 | 38.25% | @ New York Giants | 10 | 1532.74 | 56.71% |
| 10 | 1968-10-27 | 29.39 | @ Baltimore Colts | 27 | 1656.22 | 42.83% | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 1688.74 | 52.12% |
| 11 | 1968-12-01 | 28.50 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 45 | 1605.58 | 60.37% | New York Giants | 10 | 1512.66 | 34.59% |
| 12 | 1968-09-14 | 27.71 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 47 | 1454.13 | 63.61% | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 1335.78 | 31.35% |
| 13 | 1968-12-14 | 27.69 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 27 | 1538.10 | 33.65% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 16 | 1638.29 | 61.31% |
| 14 | 1968-09-22 | 27.48 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 35 | 1458.04 | 47.81% | St. Louis Cardinals | 17 | 1455.68 | 47.14% |
| 15 | 1968-12-21 * | 27.04 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 31 | 1610.60 | 37.48% | Dallas Cowboys | 20 | 1699.49 | 62.52% |
| 16 | 1968-10-28 | 26.57 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1599.43 | 36.18% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 17 | 1680.31 | 58.78% |
| 17 | 1968-12-15 | 26.05 | @ Washington Redskins | 14 | 1374.03 | 37.35% | Detroit Lions | 3 | 1446.18 | 57.61% |
| 18 | 1968-10-06 | 26.04 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 24 | 1492.10 | 44.12% | Detroit Lions | 10 | 1515.54 | 50.83% |
| 19 | 1968-10-13 | 25.87 | Detroit Lions | 28 | 1489.50 | 50.71% | @ Chicago Bears | 10 | 1466.91 | 44.24% |
| 20 | 1968-09-22 | 25.35 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 28 | 1599.18 | 54.99% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 7 | 1546.16 | 39.96% |
| 21 | 1968-12-08 | 24.30 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 29 | 1344.66 | 43.70% | New Orleans Saints | 17 | 1371.03 | 51.25% |
| 22 | 1968-09-15 | 23.99 | New York Giants | 34 | 1458.16 | 48.31% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 | 1452.34 | 46.64% |
| 23 | 1968-09-29 | 23.96 | Chicago Bears | 27 | 1459.28 | 39.44% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 17 | 1516.06 | 55.51% |
| 24 | 1968-09-15 | 23.42 | Washington Redskins | 38 | 1485.25 | 40.72% | @ Chicago Bears | 28 | 1532.82 | 54.23% |
| 25 | 1968-11-10 | 23.26 | New York Giants | 27 | 1492.84 | 25.20% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 21 | 1664.03 | 69.79% |