1966 NFL Season

105 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Green Bay Packers

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1965

Runner-Up

Dallas Cowboys

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Green Bay Packers

2.60 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.40 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

3.72 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.22 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	10	3	1	.750	—	445	239	+206	9.24	+1.26
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	5	0	.643	1.5	403	259	+144	8.91	+0.09
3	Philadelphia Eagles	9	5	0	.643	1.5	326	340	-14	6.98	+2.02
4	St. Louis Cardinals	8	5	1	.607	2	264	265	-1	8.06	+0.44
5	Washington Redskins	7	7	0	.500	3.5	351	355	-4	6.78	+0.22
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	8	1	.393	5	316	347	-31	5.41	+0.09
7	Atlanta Falcons	3	11	0	.214	7.5	204	437	-233	2.71	+0.29
8	New York Giants	1	12	1	.107	9	263	501	-238	5.22	-3.72

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	12	2	0	.857	—	335	163	+172	9.40	+2.60
2	Baltimore Colts	9	5	0	.643	3	314	226	+88	8.54	+0.46
3	Los Angeles Rams	8	6	0	.571	4	289	212	+77	7.03	+0.97
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	6	2	.500	5	320	325	-5	6.73	+0.27
5	Chicago Bears	5	7	2	.429	6	234	272	-38	7.53	-1.53
6	Minnesota Vikings	4	9	1	.321	7.5	292	304	-12	6.73	-2.23
7	Detroit Lions	4	9	1	.321	7.5	206	317	-111	5.73	-1.23

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Green Bay Packers 34

Dallas Cowboys 27

Jan 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	West	1721	12	9.40	+2.60	98.26%	3	6	8	9	10	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	1635	10.5	9.24	+1.26	82.41%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
Baltimore Colts	West	1616	9	8.54	+0.46	76.95%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1602	9	8.91	+0.09	70.75%	1	6	7	9	10	11	14
Los Angeles Rams	West	1562	8	7.03	+0.97	85.14%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1533	9	6.98	+2.02	95.05%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Chicago Bears	West	1521	6	7.53	-1.53	35.55%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Francisco 49ers	West	1518	7	6.73	+0.27	74.50%	1	3	5	6	8	9	13
Washington Redskins	East	1493	7	6.78	+0.22	73.95%	1	4	5	6	8	9	12
Minnesota Vikings	West	1474	4.5	6.73	-2.23	14.06%	0	4	5	6	8	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1472	8.5	8.06	+0.44	67.88%	2	5	6	8	9	11	13
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1441	5.5	5.41	+0.09	61.54%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Detroit Lions	West	1392	4.5	5.73	-1.23	31.55%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
New York Giants	East	1268	1.5	5.22	-3.72	1.69%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Atlanta Falcons	East	1250	3	2.71	+0.29	81.01%	0	0	1	2	3	5	8

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Falcons	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
New York Giants	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	—
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	—
Minnesota Vikings	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.95%	0.48%	2.86%	1.90%	1.43%	—	0.48%	8.10%
7–13	0.48%	3.81%	4.76%	3.81%	1.90%	2.38%	1.43%	18.57%
14–20	2.86%	4.76%	5.71%	4.76%	3.81%	2.38%	1.90%	26.19%
21–27	1.90%	3.81%	4.76%	3.81%	1.43%	0.48%	0.48%	16.67%
28–34	1.43%	1.90%	3.81%	1.43%	5.71%	1.43%	0.95%	16.67%
35–41	—	2.38%	2.38%	0.48%	1.43%	—	0.95%	7.62%
42+	0.48%	1.43%	1.90%	0.48%	0.95%	0.95%	—	6.19%
Total	8.10%	18.57%	26.19%	16.67%	16.67%	7.62%	6.19%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.72	21.72	+0.00
SD	12.75	12.75	18.41
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	72	72	+53
Min	0	0	-53

Games Played: 105

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	35.71%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.57	31.21	-16.64
SD	8.44	16.33	18.22
CV	0.58	0.52	—
Max	33	57	+11
Min	3	10	-53

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	50.00%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.43	16.14	+6.29
SD	12.79	6.80	15.99
CV	0.57	0.42	—
Max	45	27	+31
Min	3	3	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.71	19.43	-2.71
SD	10.96	10.14	12.31
CV	0.66	0.52	—
Max	41	41	+17
Min	0	6	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.79	18.50	+10.29
SD	13.12	11.30	16.20
CV	0.46	0.61	—
Max	49	40	+32
Min	6	3	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
Total	—	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.79	17.07	+14.71
SD	14.44	9.44	18.12
CV	0.45	0.55	—
Max	56	34	+49
Min	10	7	-9

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.71	22.64	-7.93
SD	8.81	12.13	14.54
CV	0.60	0.54	—
Max	32	45	+18
Min	3	3	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.93	11.64	+12.29
SD	10.59	7.57	14.17
CV	0.44	0.65	—
Max	56	23	+53
Min	13	0	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.64	15.14	+5.50
SD	13.18	9.49	18.81
CV	0.64	0.63	—
Max	55	35	+41
Min	3	3	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.86	21.71	-0.86
SD	8.39	10.84	13.88
CV	0.40	0.50	—
Max	35	41	+28
Min	6	3	-15

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	35.79	-17.00
SD	12.39	17.13	14.87
CV	0.66	0.48	—
Max	41	72	+3
Min	3	10	-45

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.29	24.29	-1.00
SD	11.12	13.32	21.05
CV	0.48	0.55	—
Max	37	56	+28
Min	7	3	-49

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
Total	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.57	24.79	-2.21
SD	15.39	14.49	18.06
CV	0.68	0.58	—
Max	57	52	+24
Min	3	3	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.86	23.21	-0.36
SD	13.89	9.21	20.37
CV	0.61	0.40	—
Max	44	36	+37
Min	3	7	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.86	18.93	-0.07
SD	10.01	10.27	14.80
CV	0.53	0.54	—
Max	41	38	+31
Min	6	3	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.07	25.36	-0.29
SD	17.18	10.65	16.11
CV	0.69	0.42	—
Max	72	41	+31
Min	3	10	-27

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	12	9.40	+2.60
2	Philadelphia Eagles	9	6.98	+2.02
3	Dallas Cowboys	10.5	9.24	+1.26
4	Los Angeles Rams	8	7.03	+0.97
5	Baltimore Colts	9	8.54	+0.46

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	1.5	5.22	-3.72
2	Minnesota Vikings	4.5	6.73	-2.23
3	Chicago Bears	6	7.53	-1.53
4	Detroit Lions	4.5	5.73	-1.23
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	8.91	+0.09

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atlanta Falcons	2	Dec 4 – Dec 11	1 in 44
2	St. Louis Cardinals	5	Sep 11 – Oct 9	1 in 33
3	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 20 – Dec 18	1 in 28
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	Nov 13 – Dec 4	1 in 16
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	Nov 6 – Nov 13	1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Minnesota Vikings	4	Nov 13 – Dec 4	1 in 116
2	New York Giants	8	Oct 23 – Dec 18	1 in 88
3	St. Louis Cardinals	3	Dec 4 – Dec 17	1 in 15
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Sep 25 – Oct 30	1 in 15
5	Baltimore Colts	2	Nov 20 – Nov 27	1 in 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Dallas Cowboys	40.41%	25.51%	16.15%	9.52%	5.29%	2.30%	0.71%	0.11%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.86%	27.00%	19.11%	11.58%	6.87%	3.18%	1.27%	0.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	16.16%	21.34%	22.72%	17.37%	11.21%	7.20%	3.49%	0.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.84%	11.75%	16.10%	20.19%	19.71%	14.99%	9.32%	2.10%
Washington Redskins	4.68%	9.28%	14.75%	19.74%	21.11%	17.54%	10.42%	2.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.18%	3.08%	5.98%	10.94%	17.85%	24.55%	25.92%	10.50%
New York Giants	0.87%	2.03%	5.06%	10.02%	16.03%	24.18%	29.68%	12.13%
Atlanta Falcons	—	0.01%	0.13%	0.64%	1.93%	6.06%	19.19%	72.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Green Bay Packers	44.56%	24.07%	13.76%	8.57%	4.83%	2.93%	1.28%
Baltimore Colts	25.91%	24.76%	17.82%	13.22%	9.10%	6.01%	3.18%
Chicago Bears	10.47%	15.57%	18.75%	17.48%	15.77%	12.89%	9.07%
Los Angeles Rams	7.14%	12.13%	15.28%	17.25%	17.20%	17.04%	13.96%
San Francisco 49ers	5.04%	9.68%	14.01%	16.20%	18.09%	19.19%	17.79%
Minnesota Vikings	5.09%	9.38%	13.04%	16.40%	18.94%	19.06%	18.09%
Detroit Lions	1.79%	4.41%	7.34%	10.88%	16.07%	22.88%	36.63%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Green Bay Packers	25.10%	19.12%	13.15%	11.09%	8.34%	6.36%	5.30%	3.60%	2.65%	1.90%	1.53%	0.93%	0.67%	0.25%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	22.26%	18.45%	13.88%	11.21%	8.97%	7.04%	5.23%	3.87%	3.32%	2.23%	1.68%	1.03%	0.53%	0.25%	0.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	17.36%	14.84%	13.97%	11.98%	9.86%	8.79%	6.23%	5.33%	3.97%	2.96%	1.94%	1.34%	0.92%	0.43%	0.08%
Baltimore Colts	12.10%	13.55%	12.80%	11.90%	10.32%	8.35%	7.30%	6.24%	5.36%	3.86%	3.33%	2.27%	1.76%	0.73%	0.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.56%	9.60%	10.22%	10.90%	10.99%	10.29%	8.34%	8.18%	6.33%	5.49%	4.27%	3.60%	2.41%	1.51%	0.31%
Chicago Bears	4.34%	6.02%	7.56%	9.02%	8.99%	9.47%	9.55%	8.87%	8.70%	7.47%	7.02%	5.32%	4.69%	2.50%	0.48%
Los Angeles Rams	2.64%	4.24%	5.71%	6.39%	7.69%	8.47%	9.49%	8.71%	9.09%	8.27%	8.95%	7.55%	6.95%	4.87%	0.98%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.35%	3.44%	5.73%	6.32%	7.38%	8.22%	8.85%	9.85%	9.14%	9.98%	8.11%	7.96%	6.15%	4.91%	1.61%
Washington Redskins	1.78%	2.88%	4.27%	5.38%	6.59%	7.56%	8.85%	9.62%	9.76%	10.68%	9.31%	9.21%	6.89%	5.46%	1.76%
San Francisco 49ers	1.66%	3.02%	4.47%	5.51%	7.06%	7.33%	8.49%	8.67%	9.54%	9.17%	9.89%	9.08%	8.45%	6.30%	1.36%
Minnesota Vikings	1.87%	2.78%	4.53%	5.16%	6.24%	7.54%	8.10%	8.90%	10.53%	9.58%	9.75%	9.18%	8.66%	6.03%	1.15%
Detroit Lions	0.45%	0.95%	1.72%	2.44%	3.29%	4.28%	5.68%	6.25%	8.01%	9.28%	11.54%	12.04%	15.44%	14.60%	4.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.33%	0.68%	1.21%	1.55%	2.23%	3.48%	4.23%	6.30%	6.79%	9.25%	11.09%	13.53%	13.72%	16.43%	9.18%
New York Giants	0.20%	0.43%	0.78%	1.14%	2.02%	2.77%	4.15%	5.30%	6.23%	8.90%	9.89%	13.42%	15.42%	18.67%	10.68%
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.21%	0.31%	0.58%	0.98%	1.70%	3.54%	7.34%	17.06%	68.19%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	40.41%	59.59%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.86%	69.14%
St. Louis Cardinals	16.16%	83.84%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.84%	94.16%
Washington Redskins	4.68%	95.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.18%	98.82%
New York Giants	0.87%	99.13%
Atlanta Falcons	—	100.00%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	44.56%	55.44%
Baltimore Colts	25.91%	74.09%
Chicago Bears	10.47%	89.53%
Los Angeles Rams	7.14%	92.86%
Minnesota Vikings	5.09%	94.91%
San Francisco 49ers	5.04%	94.96%
Detroit Lions	1.79%	98.21%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	44.56%	30.77%
Dallas Cowboys	40.41%	21.34%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.86%	14.49%
Baltimore Colts	25.91%	13.73%
St. Louis Cardinals	16.16%	4.78%
Chicago Bears	10.47%	3.85%
Los Angeles Rams	7.14%	3.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.84%	2.17%
San Francisco 49ers	5.04%	1.70%
Minnesota Vikings	5.09%	1.67%
Washington Redskins	4.68%	1.49%
Detroit Lions	1.79%	0.39%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.18%	0.29%
New York Giants	0.87%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			4.45%	4.17%					0.21%	0.87%	0.29%		3.14%	0.60%
Chicago Bears			1.23%	1.41%					0.08%	0.29%	0.09%		0.59%	0.16%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.17%	2.13%			0.42%	3.97%	1.27%	1.21%				1.32%
Dallas Cowboys	5.85%	3.18%			0.59%	7.23%	1.87%	1.32%				1.30%
Detroit Lions			0.14%	0.09%					0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.09%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers			8.62%	11.37%					0.36%	2.13%	0.41%		6.02%	1.86%
Los Angeles Rams			0.96%	1.02%					0.06%	0.19%	0.03%		0.74%	0.28%
Minnesota Vikings			0.48%	0.41%					0.04%	0.10%	0.04%		0.45%	0.15%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.01%				0.01%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.59%	0.31%			0.11%	0.59%	0.13%	0.28%				0.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%	0.07%			0.01%	0.09%	0.03%	0.03%				0.01%
San Francisco 49ers			0.49%	0.60%					0.06%	0.08%	0.02%		0.35%	0.10%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.20%	0.66%			0.23%	1.45%	0.39%	0.45%				0.40%
Washington Redskins	0.30%	0.26%			0.04%	0.45%	0.16%	0.13%				0.15%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	69.53%
Dallas Cowboys	30.47%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys		30.47%
Green Bay Packers	69.53%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 69.53% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.53%

Dallas Cowboys 30.47% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.47%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1966-09-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-19	1275.00	1496.65	26.12%	68.50%	-7.94	0-1
1966-09-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-23	1267.06	1485.95	15.24%	79.47%	-7.55	0-2
1966-09-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-28	1259.51	1496.15	13.96%	80.75%	-8.16	0-3
1966-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-47	1251.35	1567.93	16.99%	77.69%	-13.40	0-4
1966-10-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-33	1237.95	1478.77	13.68%	81.04%	-6.79	0-5
1966-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-44	1231.16	1480.15	23.19%	71.44%	-19.24	0-6
1966-10-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-56	1211.92	1659.90	4.61%	90.37%	-4.65	0-7
1966-10-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-49	1207.27	1600.00	11.67%	83.08%	-9.11	0-8
1966-11-13	Baltimore Colts	L 7-19	1198.16	1644.83	8.84%	85.97%	-4.24	0-9
1966-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 27-16	1193.92	1351.09	20.40%	74.25%	+32.34	1-9
1966-11-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-23	1226.26	1535.99	9.64%	85.15%	-5.50	1-10
1966-12-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-13	1220.76	1499.38	11.31%	83.45%	+29.05	2-10
1966-12-11	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-10	1249.81	1528.79	20.26%	74.39%	+23.92	3-10
1966-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 33-57	1273.73	1417.72	35.61%	58.98%	-23.44	3-11
1966-09-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-24	1574.32	1591.48	36.48%	58.11%	-22.44	0-1
1966-09-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 38-23	1551.88	1526.76	42.29%	52.29%	+26.72	1-1
1966-09-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 36-14	1578.60	1518.90	63.60%	31.00%	+19.65	2-1
1966-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-27	1598.25	1555.42	44.81%	49.77%	-18.84	2-2
1966-10-16	Detroit Lions	W 45-14	1579.41	1477.67	68.55%	26.07%	+19.72	3-2
1966-10-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1599.13	1510.52	67.06%	27.56%	+6.48	4-2
1966-10-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 17-3	1605.61	1512.23	52.03%	42.55%	+21.22	5-2
1966-11-06	Washington Redskins	W 37-10	1626.83	1519.62	69.15%	25.47%	+18.00	6-2
1966-11-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-7	1644.83	1198.16	85.97%	8.84%	+4.24	7-2
1966-11-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-20	1649.07	1442.88	66.74%	27.87%	-21.46	7-3
1966-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-23	1627.61	1521.31	69.05%	25.57%	-36.26	7-4
1966-12-04	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1591.35	1541.49	62.37%	32.23%	+9.73	8-4
1966-12-10	Green Bay Packers	L 10-14	1601.08	1699.73	41.81%	52.78%	-11.16	8-5
1966-12-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-14	1589.92	1543.90	45.26%	49.32%	+26.10	9-5
1966-09-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-14	1590.81	1500.40	51.61%	42.97%	-22.60	0-1
1966-09-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-31	1568.21	1504.59	47.79%	46.79%	-23.70	0-2
1966-10-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1544.51	1485.82	47.08%	47.50%	+10.91	1-2
1966-10-09	Baltimore Colts	W 27-17	1555.42	1598.25	49.77%	44.81%	+18.84	2-2
1966-10-16	Green Bay Packers	L 0-17	1574.26	1634.02	47.35%	47.23%	-25.88	2-3
1966-10-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-10	1548.38	1524.90	58.95%	35.64%	+12.67	3-3
1966-10-31	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1561.05	1555.66	39.54%	55.04%	-14.00	3-4
1966-11-06	Detroit Lions	T 10-10	1547.05	1432.26	69.98%	24.65%	-1.46	3-4
1966-11-13	San Francisco 49ers	T 30-30	1545.59	1496.10	62.32%	32.28%	-0.95	3-4
1966-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-13	1544.64	1665.68	23.99%	70.64%	-8.65	3-5
1966-11-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-6	1535.99	1226.26	85.15%	9.64%	+5.50	4-5
1966-12-04	@ Baltimore Colts	L 16-21	1541.49	1591.35	32.23%	62.37%	-9.73	4-6
1966-12-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-41	1531.76	1515.41	41.06%	53.52%	-28.49	4-7
1966-12-18	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-28	1503.27	1492.32	57.28%	37.31%	+18.04	5-7
1966-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-14	1538.19	1495.48	44.79%	49.79%	+32.25	1-0
1966-09-18	Green Bay Packers	L 20-21	1570.44	1613.92	49.68%	44.90%	-6.57	1-1
1966-09-25	St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-34	1563.87	1506.97	63.25%	31.35%	-20.34	1-2
1966-10-02	@ New York Giants	W 28-7	1543.53	1433.09	54.42%	40.16%	+24.60	2-2
1966-10-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-10	1568.13	1404.55	74.85%	19.81%	+15.10	3-2
1966-10-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-21	1583.23	1605.72	52.66%	41.92%	+16.77	4-2
1966-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 49-17	1600.00	1207.27	83.08%	11.67%	+9.12	5-2
1966-11-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-16	1609.12	1352.24	72.25%	22.40%	-29.99	5-3
1966-11-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-7	1579.13	1486.73	67.49%	27.12%	+16.46	6-3
1966-11-20	Washington Redskins	W 14-3	1595.59	1495.91	68.32%	26.30%	+11.85	7-3
1966-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-26	1607.44	1613.88	37.92%	56.66%	-17.61	7-4
1966-12-04	New York Giants	W 49-40	1589.83	1303.78	83.88%	10.89%	+4.52	8-4
1966-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-33	1594.35	1485.90	54.15%	40.44%	-24.72	8-5
1966-12-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-10	1569.63	1504.87	47.95%	46.63%	+32.73	9-5
1966-09-18	New York Giants	W 52-7	1523.60	1482.24	61.29%	33.31%	+30.11	1-0
1966-09-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-17	1553.71	1500.04	62.85%	31.75%	+14.22	2-0
1966-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 47-14	1567.93	1251.35	77.69%	16.99%	+13.40	3-0
1966-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 56-7	1581.33	1473.11	69.26%	25.36%	+24.14	4-0
1966-10-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 10-10	1605.47	1572.97	43.34%	51.24%	+0.25	4-0
1966-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-30	1605.72	1583.23	41.92%	52.66%	-16.78	4-1
1966-10-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 52-21	1588.94	1363.55	79.95%	14.76%	+11.31	5-1
1966-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1600.25	1479.38	55.86%	38.72%	-7.36	5-2
1966-11-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-30	1592.89	1501.62	51.74%	42.85%	+5.71	6-2
1966-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-7	1598.60	1421.55	63.23%	31.37%	+15.28	7-2
1966-11-24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-14	1613.88	1607.44	56.66%	37.92%	+17.61	8-2
1966-12-04	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-17	1631.49	1542.77	67.07%	27.55%	+13.98	9-2
1966-12-11	Washington Redskins	L 31-34	1645.47	1499.04	73.22%	21.43%	-16.65	9-3
1966-12-18	@ New York Giants	W 17-7	1628.82	1274.57	80.56%	14.15%	+6.16	10-3
1966-09-11	Chicago Bears	W 14-3	1500.40	1590.81	42.97%	51.61%	+22.60	1-0
1966-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-17	1523.00	1412.32	54.46%	40.13%	-26.85	1-1
1966-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-10	1496.15	1259.51	80.75%	13.96%	+8.16	2-1
1966-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-23	1504.31	1632.71	23.22%	71.41%	-9.50	2-2
1966-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-14	1494.81	1543.36	48.96%	45.62%	-17.14	2-3
1966-10-16	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-45	1477.67	1579.41	26.07%	68.55%	-19.73	2-4
1966-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-27	1457.94	1499.38	33.30%	61.30%	-7.77	2-5
1966-10-30	Green Bay Packers	L 7-31	1450.17	1664.55	26.93%	67.68%	-17.91	2-6
1966-11-06	@ Chicago Bears	T 10-10	1432.26	1547.05	24.65%	69.98%	+1.46	2-6
1966-11-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 32-31	1433.72	1547.07	24.80%	69.82%	+9.16	3-6
1966-11-20	Baltimore Colts	W 20-14	1442.88	1649.07	27.87%	66.74%	+21.46	4-6
1966-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-41	1464.34	1489.25	52.32%	42.26%	-35.87	4-7
1966-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-23	1428.47	1557.56	23.15%	71.48%	-14.12	4-8
1966-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-28	1414.35	1470.34	47.89%	46.69%	-21.98	4-9
1966-09-10	Baltimore Colts	W 24-3	1591.48	1574.32	58.11%	36.48%	+22.44	1-0
1966-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-20	1613.92	1570.44	44.90%	49.68%	+6.57	2-0
1966-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-13	1620.49	1528.28	67.47%	27.14%	+12.22	3-0
1966-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 23-14	1632.71	1504.31	71.41%	23.22%	+9.50	4-0
1966-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-21	1642.21	1471.95	62.38%	32.22%	-8.19	4-1
1966-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-0	1634.02	1574.26	47.23%	47.35%	+25.88	5-1
1966-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 56-3	1659.90	1211.92	90.37%	4.61%	+4.65	6-1
1966-10-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1664.55	1450.17	67.68%	26.93%	+17.91	7-1
1966-11-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1682.46	1530.29	73.78%	20.87%	-16.78	7-2
1966-11-20	Chicago Bears	W 13-6	1665.68	1544.64	70.64%	23.99%	+8.65	8-2
1966-11-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-16	1674.33	1515.07	60.98%	33.62%	+15.68	9-2
1966-12-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-7	1690.01	1525.13	74.97%	19.69%	+9.72	10-2
1966-12-10	@ Baltimore Colts	W 14-10	1699.73	1601.08	52.78%	41.81%	+11.16	11-2
1966-12-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-23	1710.89	1571.68	58.34%	36.24%	+9.73	12-2
1966-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-14	1496.65	1275.00	68.50%	26.12%	+7.94	1-0
1966-09-16	Chicago Bears	W 31-17	1504.59	1568.21	46.79%	47.79%	+23.69	2-0
1966-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-24	1528.28	1620.49	27.14%	67.47%	-12.22	2-1
1966-09-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-3	1516.06	1499.26	58.06%	36.53%	+27.30	3-1
1966-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1543.36	1494.81	45.62%	48.96%	+17.15	4-1
1966-10-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-35	1560.51	1474.92	50.93%	43.65%	-35.61	4-2
1966-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1524.90	1548.38	35.64%	58.95%	-12.67	4-3
1966-10-30	Baltimore Colts	L 3-17	1512.23	1605.61	42.55%	52.03%	-21.22	4-4
1966-11-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-21	1491.01	1480.91	40.19%	54.39%	-15.20	4-5
1966-11-13	New York Giants	W 55-14	1475.81	1373.75	68.58%	26.04%	+22.66	5-5
1966-11-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-6	1498.47	1537.91	50.26%	44.32%	+22.84	6-5
1966-11-27	@ Baltimore Colts	W 23-7	1521.31	1627.61	25.57%	69.05%	+36.25	7-5
1966-12-04	Detroit Lions	W 23-3	1557.56	1428.47	71.48%	23.15%	+14.12	8-5
1966-12-18	Green Bay Packers	L 23-27	1571.68	1710.89	36.24%	58.34%	-9.74	8-6
1966-09-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 20-20	1526.29	1519.38	39.75%	54.83%	+0.47	0-0
1966-09-18	Baltimore Colts	L 23-38	1526.76	1551.88	52.29%	42.29%	-26.72	0-1
1966-09-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-28	1500.04	1553.71	31.75%	62.85%	-14.22	0-2
1966-10-02	Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1485.82	1544.51	47.50%	47.08%	-10.90	0-3
1966-10-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-7	1474.92	1560.51	43.65%	50.93%	+35.60	1-3
1966-10-23	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-20	1510.52	1599.13	27.56%	67.06%	-6.48	1-4
1966-10-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-3	1504.04	1507.15	55.36%	39.23%	+26.25	2-4
1966-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1530.29	1682.46	20.87%	73.78%	+16.78	3-4
1966-11-13	Detroit Lions	L 31-32	1547.07	1433.72	69.82%	24.80%	-9.16	3-5
1966-11-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-21	1537.91	1498.47	44.32%	50.26%	-22.84	3-6
1966-11-27	Green Bay Packers	L 16-28	1515.07	1674.33	33.62%	60.98%	-15.69	3-7
1966-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-20	1499.38	1220.76	83.45%	11.31%	-29.04	3-8
1966-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-16	1470.34	1414.35	46.69%	47.89%	+21.98	4-8
1966-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 28-41	1492.32	1503.27	37.31%	57.28%	-18.05	4-9
1966-09-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 34-34	1482.33	1412.23	48.72%	45.86%	-0.09	0-0
1966-09-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-52	1482.24	1523.60	33.31%	61.29%	-30.11	0-1
1966-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-35	1452.13	1493.51	33.31%	61.29%	-19.04	0-2
1966-10-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-28	1433.09	1543.53	40.16%	54.42%	-24.61	0-3
1966-10-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 19-24	1408.48	1566.76	20.30%	74.36%	-6.21	0-4
1966-10-16	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1402.27	1485.56	43.98%	50.60%	+11.59	1-4
1966-10-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-31	1413.86	1474.86	47.17%	47.41%	-33.10	1-5
1966-11-06	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-20	1380.76	1569.66	29.92%	64.69%	-7.01	1-6
1966-11-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-55	1373.75	1475.81	26.04%	68.58%	-22.66	1-7
1966-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 16-27	1351.09	1193.92	74.25%	20.40%	-32.33	1-8
1966-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	L 41-72	1318.76	1484.06	19.65%	75.01%	-14.98	1-9
1966-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 40-49	1303.78	1589.83	10.89%	83.88%	-4.51	1-10
1966-12-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-47	1299.27	1393.03	42.49%	52.09%	-24.70	1-11
1966-12-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-17	1274.57	1628.82	14.15%	80.56%	-6.16	1-12
1966-09-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-16	1495.47	1478.38	41.17%	53.41%	-9.52	0-1
1966-09-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-10	1485.95	1267.06	79.47%	15.24%	+7.56	1-1
1966-09-25	New York Giants	W 35-17	1493.51	1452.13	61.29%	33.31%	+19.04	2-1
1966-10-02	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-41	1512.55	1527.32	53.74%	40.84%	-39.44	2-2
1966-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-56	1473.11	1581.33	25.36%	69.26%	-24.15	2-3
1966-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-14	1448.96	1389.45	47.20%	47.38%	+25.90	3-3
1966-10-23	@ New York Giants	W 31-3	1474.86	1413.86	47.41%	47.17%	+33.10	4-3
1966-10-30	Washington Redskins	L 13-27	1507.96	1491.04	58.08%	36.51%	-28.58	4-4
1966-11-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-23	1479.38	1600.25	38.72%	55.86%	+7.35	5-4
1966-11-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1486.73	1579.13	27.12%	67.49%	-16.46	5-5
1966-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 35-34	1470.27	1497.06	35.20%	59.39%	+7.81	6-5
1966-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-23	1478.08	1400.86	65.72%	28.89%	+7.82	7-5
1966-12-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-21	1485.90	1594.35	40.44%	54.15%	+24.72	8-5
1966-12-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-28	1510.62	1515.69	38.11%	56.48%	+22.30	9-5
1966-09-11	New York Giants	T 34-34	1412.23	1482.33	45.86%	48.72%	+0.09	0-0
1966-09-18	Detroit Lions	W 17-3	1412.32	1523.00	40.13%	54.46%	+26.85	1-0
1966-09-25	Washington Redskins	L 27-33	1439.17	1444.15	55.10%	39.49%	-17.78	1-1
1966-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-24	1421.39	1461.92	33.42%	61.18%	-16.84	1-2
1966-10-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-41	1404.55	1568.13	19.81%	74.85%	-15.10	1-3
1966-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-31	1389.45	1448.96	47.38%	47.20%	-25.90	1-4
1966-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-52	1363.55	1588.94	14.76%	79.95%	-11.31	1-5
1966-11-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-6	1352.24	1609.12	22.40%	72.25%	+30.00	2-5
1966-11-13	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-9	1382.24	1576.67	29.25%	65.36%	+39.31	3-5
1966-11-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1421.55	1598.60	31.37%	63.23%	-15.27	3-6
1966-11-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-6	1406.28	1537.35	22.95%	71.69%	-5.42	3-7
1966-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-27	1400.86	1478.08	28.89%	65.72%	-7.83	3-8
1966-12-11	@ New York Giants	W 47-28	1393.03	1299.27	52.09%	42.49%	+24.69	4-8
1966-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 57-33	1417.72	1273.73	58.98%	35.61%	+23.45	5-8
1966-09-11	Minnesota Vikings	T 20-20	1519.38	1526.29	54.83%	39.75%	-0.48	0-0
1966-09-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-36	1518.90	1578.60	31.00%	63.60%	-19.64	0-1
1966-09-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-34	1499.26	1516.06	36.53%	58.06%	-27.31	0-2
1966-10-09	Green Bay Packers	W 21-20	1471.95	1642.21	32.22%	62.38%	+8.20	1-2
1966-10-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-7	1480.15	1231.16	71.44%	23.19%	+19.23	2-2
1966-10-23	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1499.38	1457.94	61.30%	33.30%	+7.77	3-2
1966-10-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-28	1507.15	1504.04	39.23%	55.36%	-26.24	3-3
1966-11-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 21-13	1480.91	1491.01	54.39%	40.19%	+15.19	4-3
1966-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	T 30-30	1496.10	1545.59	32.28%	62.32%	+0.96	4-3
1966-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 34-35	1497.06	1470.27	59.39%	35.20%	-7.81	4-4
1966-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-14	1489.25	1464.34	42.26%	52.32%	+35.88	5-4
1966-12-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-20	1525.13	1690.01	19.69%	74.97%	-9.72	5-5
1966-12-11	Chicago Bears	W 41-14	1515.41	1531.76	53.52%	41.06%	+28.49	6-5
1966-12-18	Baltimore Colts	L 14-30	1543.90	1589.92	49.32%	45.26%	-26.10	6-6
1966-09-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-13	1478.38	1495.47	53.41%	41.17%	+9.52	1-0
1966-09-18	Washington Redskins	W 23-7	1487.90	1463.22	59.11%	35.48%	+19.07	2-0
1966-09-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-28	1506.97	1563.87	31.35%	63.25%	+20.35	3-0
1966-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-10	1527.32	1512.55	40.84%	53.74%	+39.44	4-0
1966-10-09	New York Giants	W 24-19	1566.76	1408.48	74.36%	20.30%	+6.21	5-0
1966-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	T 10-10	1572.97	1605.47	51.24%	43.34%	-0.25	5-0
1966-10-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-26	1572.72	1473.98	52.79%	41.79%	-17.06	5-1
1966-10-31	Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1555.66	1561.05	55.04%	39.54%	+14.00	6-1
1966-11-06	@ New York Giants	W 20-17	1569.66	1380.76	64.69%	29.92%	+7.01	7-1
1966-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-30	1576.67	1382.24	65.36%	29.25%	-39.32	7-2
1966-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 6-3	1537.35	1406.28	71.69%	22.95%	+5.42	8-2
1966-12-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-31	1542.77	1631.49	27.55%	67.07%	-13.98	8-3
1966-12-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-16	1528.79	1249.81	74.39%	20.26%	-23.92	8-4
1966-12-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-38	1504.87	1569.63	46.63%	47.95%	-32.74	8-5
1966-09-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-38	1495.48	1538.19	49.79%	44.79%	-32.26	0-1
1966-09-18	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-23	1463.22	1487.90	35.48%	59.11%	-19.07	0-2
1966-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-27	1444.15	1439.17	39.49%	55.10%	+17.77	1-2
1966-10-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-10	1461.92	1421.39	61.18%	33.42%	+16.85	2-2
1966-10-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 33-20	1478.77	1237.95	81.04%	13.68%	+6.79	3-2
1966-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1485.56	1402.27	50.60%	43.98%	-11.58	3-3
1966-10-23	St. Louis Cardinals	W 26-20	1473.98	1572.72	41.79%	52.79%	+17.06	4-3
1966-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-13	1491.04	1507.96	36.51%	58.08%	+28.58	5-3
1966-11-06	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-37	1519.62	1626.83	25.47%	69.15%	-18.00	5-4
1966-11-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 30-31	1501.62	1592.89	42.85%	51.74%	-5.71	5-5
1966-11-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-14	1495.91	1595.59	26.30%	68.32%	-11.85	5-6
1966-11-27	New York Giants	W 72-41	1484.06	1318.76	75.01%	19.65%	+14.98	6-6
1966-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-31	1499.04	1645.47	21.43%	73.22%	+16.65	7-6
1966-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-37	1515.69	1510.62	56.48%	38.11%	-22.30	7-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1967-01-01	Green Bay Packers	L 27-34	1634.98	1720.62	46.34%	53.66%	-15.37	0-1
1967-01-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-27	1720.62	1634.98	53.66%	46.34%	+15.38	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1966-12-04	11.31%	Atlanta Falcons	1220.76	20	@ Minnesota Vikings	1499.38	13
2	1966-12-11	20.26%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1249.81	16	St. Louis Cardinals	1528.79	10
3	1966-11-20	20.40%	Atlanta Falcons	1193.92	27	@ New York Giants	1351.09	16
4	1966-11-06	20.87%	Minnesota Vikings	1530.29	20	@ Green Bay Packers	1682.46	17
5	1966-12-11	21.43%	Washington Redskins	1499.04	34	@ Dallas Cowboys	1645.47	31
6	1966-11-06	22.40%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1352.24	16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1609.12	6
7	1966-11-13	24.80%	Detroit Lions	1433.72	32	@ Minnesota Vikings	1547.07	31
8	1966-11-27	25.57%	Los Angeles Rams	1521.31	23	@ Baltimore Colts	1627.61	7
9	1966-11-20	27.87%	@ Detroit Lions	1442.88	20	Baltimore Colts	1649.07	14
10	1966-11-13	29.25%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1382.24	30	St. Louis Cardinals	1576.67	9
11	1966-09-25	31.35%	St. Louis Cardinals	1506.97	34	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1563.87	28
12	1966-10-09	32.22%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1471.95	21	Green Bay Packers	1642.21	20
13	1966-11-20	35.20%	Philadelphia Eagles	1470.27	35	@ San Francisco 49ers	1497.06	34
14	1966-10-30	36.51%	Washington Redskins	1491.04	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1507.96	13
15	1966-12-18	38.11%	Philadelphia Eagles	1510.62	37	@ Washington Redskins	1515.69	28
16	1966-11-06	38.72%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1479.38	24	Dallas Cowboys	1600.25	23
17	1966-09-25	39.49%	Washington Redskins	1444.15	33	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1439.17	27
18	1966-09-18	40.13%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1412.32	17	Detroit Lions	1523.00	3
19	1966-12-11	40.44%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1485.90	33	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1594.35	21
20	1966-10-02	40.84%	St. Louis Cardinals	1527.32	41	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1512.55	10
21	1966-10-23	41.79%	@ Washington Redskins	1473.98	26	St. Louis Cardinals	1572.72	20
22	1966-11-24	42.26%	San Francisco 49ers	1489.25	41	@ Detroit Lions	1464.34	14
23	1966-09-18	42.29%	Baltimore Colts	1551.88	38	@ Minnesota Vikings	1526.76	23
24	1966-09-11	42.97%	@ Detroit Lions	1500.40	14	Chicago Bears	1590.81	3
25	1966-10-16	43.65%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1474.92	35	Los Angeles Rams	1560.51	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1966-10-02	39.44	St. Louis Cardinals	41	1527.32	40.84%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1512.55	53.74%
2	1966-11-13	39.32	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	30	1382.24	29.25%	St. Louis Cardinals	9	1576.67	65.36%
3	1966-11-27	36.26	Los Angeles Rams	23	1521.31	25.57%	@ Baltimore Colts	7	1627.61	69.05%
4	1966-11-24	35.88	San Francisco 49ers	41	1489.25	42.26%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1464.34	52.32%
5	1966-10-16	35.61	@ Minnesota Vikings	35	1474.92	43.65%	Los Angeles Rams	7	1560.51	50.93%
6	1966-10-23	33.10	Philadelphia Eagles	31	1474.86	47.41%	@ New York Giants	3	1413.86	47.17%
7	1966-12-17	32.74	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1569.63	47.95%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	10	1504.87	46.63%
8	1966-11-20	32.34	Atlanta Falcons	27	1193.92	20.40%	@ New York Giants	16	1351.09	74.25%
9	1966-09-11	32.26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1538.19	44.79%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1495.48	49.79%
10	1966-09-18	30.11	@ Dallas Cowboys	52	1523.60	61.29%	New York Giants	7	1482.24	33.31%
11	1966-11-06	30.00	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	16	1352.24	22.40%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	1609.12	72.25%
12	1966-12-04	29.05	Atlanta Falcons	20	1220.76	11.31%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1499.38	83.45%
13	1966-10-30	28.58	Washington Redskins	27	1491.04	36.51%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1507.96	58.08%
14	1966-12-11	28.49	@ San Francisco 49ers	41	1515.41	53.52%	Chicago Bears	14	1531.76	41.06%
15	1966-09-30	27.31	@ Los Angeles Rams	34	1516.06	58.06%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1499.26	36.53%
16	1966-09-18	26.85	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	17	1412.32	40.13%	Detroit Lions	3	1523.00	54.46%
17	1966-09-18	26.72	Baltimore Colts	38	1551.88	42.29%	@ Minnesota Vikings	23	1526.76	52.29%
18	1966-10-30	26.25	@ Minnesota Vikings	28	1504.04	55.36%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1507.15	39.23%
19	1966-12-18	26.10	Baltimore Colts	30	1589.92	45.26%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1543.90	49.32%
20	1966-10-16	25.90	Philadelphia Eagles	31	1448.96	47.20%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1389.45	47.38%
21	1966-10-16	25.88	Green Bay Packers	17	1634.02	47.23%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1574.26	47.35%
22	1966-12-11	24.72	@ Philadelphia Eagles	33	1485.90	40.44%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1594.35	54.15%
23	1966-12-11	24.70	Pittsburgh Steelers	47	1393.03	52.09%	@ New York Giants	28	1299.27	42.49%
24	1966-10-02	24.61	Cleveland Browns (1st)	28	1543.53	54.42%	@ New York Giants	7	1433.09	40.16%
25	1966-10-09	24.15	@ Dallas Cowboys	56	1581.33	69.26%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1473.11	25.36%