1961 NFL Season

98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Green Bay Packers

7th Title

Last Title: 1944

Runner-Up

New York Giants

12th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1959

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

2.33 wins above expected

10 wins · 8.17 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Minnesota Vikings

2.62 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.62 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	10	3	1	.750	—	368	220	+148	8.17	+2.33
2	Philadelphia Eagles	10	4	0	.714	0.5	361	297	+64	8.63	+1.37
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	5	1	.607	2	319	270	+49	8.52	-0.02
4	St. Louis Cardinals	7	7	0	.500	3.5	279	267	+12	7.31	-0.31
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	8	0	.429	4.5	295	287	+8	6.91	-0.91
6	Dallas Cowboys	4	9	1	.321	6	236	380	-144	5.26	-0.76
7	Washington Redskins	1	12	1	.107	9	174	392	-218	3.82	-2.32

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	11	3	0	.786	—	391	223	+168	9.20	+1.80
2	Detroit Lions	8	5	1	.607	2.5	270	258	+12	7.22	+1.28
3	Chicago Bears	8	6	0	.571	3	326	302	+24	6.35	+1.65
4	Baltimore Colts	8	6	0	.571	3	302	307	-5	7.38	+0.62
5	San Francisco 49ers	7	6	1	.536	3.5	346	272	+74	8.02	-0.52
6	Los Angeles Rams	4	10	0	.286	7	263	333	-70	5.60	-1.60
7	Minnesota Vikings	3	11	0	.214	8	285	407	-122	5.62	-2.62

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Green Bay Packers 37

New York Giants 0

Dec 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	West	1673	11	9.20	+1.80	93.61%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
New York Giants	East	1653	10.5	8.17	+2.33	93.07%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1603	10	8.63	+1.37	88.73%	2	5	7	8	10	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1586	8.5	8.52	-0.02	55.09%	2	5	7	8	10	11	14
Detroit Lions	West	1538	8.5	7.22	+1.28	80.52%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Chicago Bears	West	1529	8	6.35	+1.65	90.78%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
San Francisco 49ers	West	1527	7.5	8.02	-0.52	43.63%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Baltimore Colts	West	1522	8	7.38	+0.62	77.38%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1499	7	7.31	-0.31	59.55%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1473	6	6.91	-0.91	46.90%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Los Angeles Rams	West	1421	4	5.60	-1.60	32.46%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Minnesota Vikings	West	1381	3	5.62	-2.62	14.48%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Dallas Cowboys	East	1317	4.5	5.26	-0.76	39.54%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Washington Redskins	East	1277	1.5	3.82	-2.32	8.66%	0	1	2	3	5	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	—	—	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
New York Giants	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—
Philadelphia Eagles	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Chicago Bears	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
Minnesota Vikings	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	2.04%	1.53%	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	6.63%
7–13	—	2.04%	4.08%	3.06%	3.57%	2.04%	1.02%	15.82%
14–20	2.04%	4.08%	11.22%	3.57%	3.06%	1.02%	1.02%	26.02%
21–27	1.53%	3.06%	3.57%	7.14%	2.55%	2.55%	2.04%	22.45%
28–34	1.02%	3.57%	3.06%	2.55%	4.08%	1.02%	—	15.31%
35–41	1.02%	2.04%	1.02%	2.55%	1.02%	—	0.51%	8.16%
42+	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	2.04%	—	0.51%	—	5.61%
Total	6.63%	15.82%	26.02%	22.45%	15.31%	8.16%	5.61%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.51	21.51	+0.00
SD	11.32	11.32	17.60
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	53	53	+53
Min	0	0	-53

Games Played: 98

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	—	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	21.93	-0.36
SD	9.85	11.47	15.94
CV	0.46	0.52	—
Max	45	45	+24
Min	7	0	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.29	21.57	+1.71
SD	12.09	11.30	14.96
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	52	41	+31
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.79	19.29	+3.50
SD	10.23	12.68	15.74
CV	0.45	0.66	—
Max	45	49	+24
Min	7	6	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.86	27.14	-10.29
SD	7.78	12.09	17.57
CV	0.46	0.45	—
Max	28	43	+28
Min	7	0	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	35.71%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.29	18.43	+0.86
SD	11.36	10.91	19.09
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	45	49	+31
Min	0	7	-49

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	35.71%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.93	15.93	+12.00
SD	10.22	10.97	16.35
CV	0.37	0.69	—
Max	49	45	+38
Min	13	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	23.79	-5.00
SD	8.62	9.62	14.78
CV	0.46	0.40	—
Max	34	42	+17
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.36	29.07	-8.71
SD	13.66	10.82	16.51
CV	0.67	0.37	—
Max	42	52	+24
Min	0	13	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	42.86%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.29	15.71	+10.57
SD	12.92	6.99	15.59
CV	0.49	0.44	—
Max	53	24	+53
Min	7	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	57.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.79	21.21	+4.57
SD	7.81	11.60	14.35
CV	0.30	0.55	—
Max	43	45	+36
Min	14	7	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.07	20.50	+0.57
SD	9.06	11.38	14.64
CV	0.43	0.56	—
Max	37	42	+30
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	—	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.71	19.43	+5.29
SD	14.85	10.97	21.90
CV	0.60	0.56	—
Max	49	31	+49
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.93	19.07	+0.86
SD	10.98	11.66	16.55
CV	0.55	0.61	—
Max	38	45	+24
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.43	28.00	-15.57
SD	11.59	9.68	15.62
CV	0.93	0.35	—
Max	34	53	+10
Min	0	14	-53

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	10.5	8.17	+2.33
2	Green Bay Packers	11	9.20	+1.80
3	Chicago Bears	8	6.35	+1.65
4	Philadelphia Eagles	10	8.63	+1.37
5	Detroit Lions	8.5	7.22	+1.28

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Minnesota Vikings	3	5.62	-2.62
2	Washington Redskins	1.5	3.82	-2.32
3	Los Angeles Rams	4	5.60	-1.60
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	6.91	-0.91
5	Dallas Cowboys	4.5	5.26	-0.76

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 8 – Oct 29	1 in 33
2	New York Giants	5	Sep 24 – Oct 22	1 in 24
3	Green Bay Packers	6	Sep 24 – Oct 29	1 in 17
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 29 – Nov 12	1 in 15
5	Philadelphia Eagles	5	Oct 8 – Nov 5	1 in 9

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Minnesota Vikings	7	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 76
2	Washington Redskins	9	Sep 17 – Nov 12	1 in 18
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	Sep 17 – Oct 8	1 in 16
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	Oct 8 – Oct 29	1 in 8
5	St. Louis Cardinals	3	Nov 12 – Nov 26	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Philadelphia Eagles	30.53%	23.28%	18.97%	13.65%	9.00%	3.57%	1.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	28.32%	22.97%	18.93%	14.70%	9.97%	4.02%	1.09%
New York Giants	21.59%	22.69%	19.98%	16.49%	11.99%	5.77%	1.49%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.04%	15.14%	18.57%	20.07%	18.71%	11.99%	4.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.97%	12.13%	15.86%	20.31%	23.23%	15.54%	5.96%
Dallas Cowboys	1.39%	3.29%	6.34%	11.23%	18.53%	35.58%	23.64%
Washington Redskins	0.16%	0.50%	1.35%	3.55%	8.57%	23.53%	62.34%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Green Bay Packers	45.49%	23.34%	14.21%	8.50%	4.91%	2.67%	0.88%
San Francisco 49ers	21.53%	23.45%	18.70%	14.19%	10.93%	7.14%	4.06%
Baltimore Colts	12.96%	18.52%	18.61%	17.01%	14.73%	10.95%	7.22%
Detroit Lions	10.52%	15.56%	18.29%	17.85%	16.14%	12.86%	8.78%
Chicago Bears	4.70%	9.34%	12.51%	16.40%	18.41%	19.35%	19.29%
Minnesota Vikings	2.47%	5.24%	8.97%	13.27%	17.74%	23.57%	28.74%
Los Angeles Rams	2.33%	4.55%	8.71%	12.78%	17.14%	23.46%	31.03%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Green Bay Packers	25.99%	18.55%	13.03%	10.60%	8.50%	6.38%	4.97%	3.82%	3.09%	2.13%	1.49%	0.93%	0.44%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	16.35%	14.84%	12.95%	11.27%	9.98%	8.34%	7.11%	5.98%	4.66%	3.73%	2.12%	1.31%	0.95%	0.41%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	16.12%	13.47%	12.12%	10.73%	10.45%	8.65%	7.79%	5.98%	5.28%	3.92%	2.54%	1.62%	0.92%	0.41%
New York Giants	11.07%	11.52%	11.91%	11.35%	10.12%	9.24%	8.25%	7.27%	6.19%	5.48%	3.39%	2.38%	1.22%	0.61%
San Francisco 49ers	9.54%	11.12%	11.45%	11.70%	9.67%	9.10%	7.78%	7.20%	6.47%	5.21%	4.55%	3.31%	2.10%	0.80%
Baltimore Colts	5.42%	7.22%	8.11%	9.18%	8.55%	9.96%	9.25%	9.22%	8.08%	7.23%	6.65%	5.18%	4.03%	1.92%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.64%	6.59%	7.76%	8.45%	9.63%	9.05%	9.24%	9.65%	8.45%	8.50%	6.64%	5.62%	3.73%	2.05%
Detroit Lions	4.30%	6.04%	7.43%	7.66%	8.86%	9.69%	9.13%	8.81%	9.02%	8.52%	7.64%	6.33%	4.60%	1.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.03%	4.21%	6.17%	6.68%	7.91%	8.31%	9.10%	10.51%	9.89%	10.43%	8.27%	7.72%	4.42%	3.35%
Chicago Bears	1.92%	2.87%	3.87%	4.61%	5.89%	6.68%	8.13%	8.78%	10.06%	10.34%	10.84%	10.11%	10.37%	5.53%
Minnesota Vikings	0.71%	1.26%	1.78%	2.92%	3.64%	4.95%	6.21%	7.87%	9.25%	10.27%	12.19%	12.93%	15.08%	10.94%
Los Angeles Rams	0.53%	1.39%	1.88%	2.52%	3.52%	4.95%	6.46%	7.04%	8.81%	9.87%	12.68%	13.55%	16.34%	10.46%
Dallas Cowboys	0.36%	0.83%	1.33%	2.06%	2.72%	3.85%	5.22%	5.87%	7.70%	9.60%	13.20%	16.24%	14.86%	16.16%
Washington Redskins	0.02%	0.09%	0.21%	0.27%	0.56%	0.85%	1.36%	2.00%	3.05%	4.77%	7.80%	12.77%	20.94%	45.31%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	30.53%	69.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	28.32%	71.68%
New York Giants	21.59%	78.41%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.04%	88.96%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.97%	93.03%
Dallas Cowboys	1.39%	98.61%
Washington Redskins	0.16%	99.84%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	45.49%	54.51%
San Francisco 49ers	21.53%	78.47%
Baltimore Colts	12.96%	87.04%
Detroit Lions	10.52%	89.48%
Chicago Bears	4.70%	95.30%
Minnesota Vikings	2.47%	97.53%
Los Angeles Rams	2.33%	97.67%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	45.49%	28.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	30.53%	15.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	28.32%	14.37%
New York Giants	21.59%	12.93%
San Francisco 49ers	21.53%	8.97%
Baltimore Colts	12.96%	5.38%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.04%	4.27%
Detroit Lions	10.52%	4.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.97%	2.44%
Chicago Bears	4.70%	1.94%
Los Angeles Rams	2.33%	0.64%
Minnesota Vikings	2.47%	0.58%
Dallas Cowboys	1.39%	0.21%
Washington Redskins	0.16%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			1.56%	0.13%					0.82%	1.61%	0.53%		0.72%	0.01%
Chicago Bears			0.44%	0.04%					0.36%	0.62%	0.23%		0.25%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.32%	0.66%			1.97%	4.52%	0.60%	0.55%				3.75%
Dallas Cowboys		0.02%			0.02%	0.10%	0.03%	0.01%				0.03%
Detroit Lions			1.40%	0.13%					0.92%	0.89%	0.46%		0.44%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers			7.35%	0.62%					4.90%	8.98%	2.52%		3.90%	0.10%
Los Angeles Rams			0.23%	0.03%					0.09%	0.17%	0.03%		0.09%
Minnesota Vikings			0.15%						0.10%	0.16%	0.09%		0.08%
New York Giants	1.93%	0.90%			1.71%	4.58%	0.37%	0.32%				3.12%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.49%	0.84%			1.67%	5.56%	0.50%	0.64%				3.95%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.36%	0.15%			0.41%	0.81%	0.04%	0.11%				0.56%
San Francisco 49ers			2.82%	0.23%					1.47%	2.45%	0.67%		1.29%	0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.48%	0.19%			0.49%	1.55%	0.15%	0.26%				1.15%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	59.05%
New York Giants	40.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants
Green Bay Packers		59.05%
New York Giants	40.95%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 59.05% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.05%

New York Giants 40.95% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.95%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-09-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1513.68	1467.60	60.05%	36.21%	+7.93	1-0
1961-09-24	Detroit Lions	L 15-16	1521.61	1535.92	51.69%	44.56%	-6.46	1-1
1961-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-33	1515.15	1495.48	56.46%	39.79%	+5.02	2-1
1961-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-45	1520.17	1585.55	33.68%	62.58%	-26.31	2-2
1961-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1493.86	1462.84	46.96%	49.30%	-22.03	2-3
1961-10-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1471.83	1468.38	43.03%	53.23%	+11.51	3-3
1961-10-29	Chicago Bears	L 20-21	1483.34	1525.95	47.63%	48.62%	-5.97	3-4
1961-11-05	Green Bay Packers	W 45-21	1477.37	1673.39	27.31%	68.96%	+42.04	4-4
1961-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-28	1519.41	1387.57	61.03%	35.23%	-21.50	4-5
1961-11-19	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-0	1497.91	1474.38	56.99%	39.26%	+19.81	5-5
1961-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-6	1517.72	1292.48	72.17%	24.10%	+14.11	6-5
1961-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1531.83	1541.70	52.32%	43.94%	+9.56	7-5
1961-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-34	1541.39	1396.37	62.75%	33.51%	-32.21	7-6
1961-12-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1509.18	1539.89	38.28%	57.98%	+12.52	8-6
1961-09-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-37	1459.93	1500.00	37.01%	59.24%	-22.92	0-1
1961-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-17	1437.01	1459.67	39.38%	56.87%	+14.19	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-24	1451.20	1568.48	27.36%	68.91%	-17.07	1-2
1961-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-17	1434.13	1492.11	34.64%	61.62%	+28.71	2-2
1961-10-15	Baltimore Colts	W 24-10	1462.84	1493.86	49.30%	46.96%	+22.03	3-2
1961-10-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-0	1484.87	1602.98	37.05%	59.21%	+41.08	4-2
1961-10-29	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-20	1525.95	1483.34	48.62%	47.63%	+5.97	5-2
1961-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-16	1531.92	1621.36	30.66%	65.60%	-5.51	5-3
1961-11-12	Green Bay Packers	L 28-31	1526.41	1631.35	38.84%	57.42%	-8.49	5-4
1961-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-41	1517.92	1514.91	42.96%	53.29%	-17.09	5-5
1961-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-24	1500.83	1433.35	62.85%	33.41%	+8.47	6-5
1961-12-03	Detroit Lions	L 15-16	1509.30	1534.69	50.10%	46.15%	-6.27	6-6
1961-12-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1503.03	1597.56	40.27%	55.98%	+12.09	7-6
1961-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 52-35	1515.12	1395.43	69.18%	27.08%	+14.23	8-6
1961-09-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-27	1586.24	1555.38	46.93%	49.32%	-15.57	0-1
1961-09-24	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-17	1570.67	1536.34	58.47%	37.79%	+8.27	1-1
1961-10-01	Dallas Cowboys	W 25-7	1578.94	1434.87	71.87%	24.40%	+13.21	2-1
1961-10-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1592.15	1365.06	79.61%	16.68%	+10.50	3-1
1961-10-15	Green Bay Packers	L 17-49	1602.65	1611.86	52.41%	43.84%	-37.05	3-2
1961-10-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-28	1565.60	1459.03	57.64%	38.61%	+6.90	4-2
1961-10-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-10	1572.50	1512.93	51.05%	45.20%	+18.82	5-2
1961-11-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1591.32	1475.03	68.79%	27.47%	-17.12	5-3
1961-11-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1574.20	1299.61	76.99%	19.29%	+8.20	6-3
1961-11-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-24	1582.40	1601.62	50.99%	45.27%	+26.05	7-3
1961-11-26	New York Giants	L 21-37	1608.45	1625.12	51.35%	44.90%	-25.68	7-4
1961-12-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-17	1582.77	1368.76	70.97%	25.30%	+14.79	8-4
1961-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1597.56	1503.03	55.98%	40.27%	-12.09	8-5
1961-12-17	@ New York Giants	T 7-7	1585.47	1654.05	33.27%	62.99%	+0.90	8-5
1961-09-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1395.31	1490.60	40.17%	56.09%	+12.12	1-0
1961-09-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-7	1407.43	1522.92	37.40%	58.85%	+27.44	2-0
1961-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-25	1434.87	1578.94	24.40%	71.87%	-13.21	2-1
1961-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-0	1421.66	1490.46	33.24%	63.02%	+41.51	3-1
1961-10-15	New York Giants	L 10-31	1463.17	1543.13	42.31%	53.95%	-24.40	3-2
1961-10-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-43	1438.77	1592.94	32.35%	63.91%	-24.62	3-3
1961-10-29	@ New York Giants	W 17-16	1414.15	1577.95	22.37%	73.91%	+9.20	4-3
1961-11-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-31	1423.35	1494.10	43.61%	52.65%	-20.52	4-4
1961-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-37	1402.83	1492.15	30.67%	65.59%	-21.34	4-5
1961-11-19	Washington Redskins	T 28-28	1381.49	1291.41	65.68%	30.58%	-1.08	4-5
1961-11-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-35	1380.41	1575.57	19.39%	76.89%	-11.65	4-6
1961-12-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-38	1368.76	1582.77	25.30%	70.97%	-14.79	4-7
1961-12-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-31	1353.97	1457.00	29.02%	67.24%	-15.66	4-8
1961-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-34	1338.31	1255.22	54.39%	41.87%	-21.47	4-9
1961-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1521.20	1559.81	37.21%	59.05%	+14.72	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 16-15	1535.92	1521.61	44.56%	51.69%	+6.46	2-0
1961-10-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-49	1542.38	1514.37	57.61%	38.65%	-50.27	2-1
1961-10-08	Chicago Bears	L 17-31	1492.11	1434.13	61.62%	34.64%	-28.72	2-2
1961-10-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 14-13	1463.39	1441.60	56.75%	39.50%	+4.99	3-2
1961-10-22	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1468.38	1471.83	53.23%	43.03%	-11.52	3-3
1961-10-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-10	1456.86	1426.20	46.91%	49.35%	+26.21	4-3
1961-11-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 20-20	1483.07	1539.02	34.91%	61.35%	+0.81	4-3
1961-11-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-14	1483.88	1514.62	38.28%	57.98%	+40.24	5-3
1961-11-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-10	1524.12	1409.07	58.79%	37.46%	+24.59	6-3
1961-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 9-17	1548.71	1650.35	39.29%	56.96%	-14.02	6-4
1961-12-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-15	1534.69	1509.30	46.15%	50.10%	+6.27	7-4
1961-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-7	1540.96	1403.27	71.18%	25.09%	+7.84	8-4
1961-12-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1548.80	1592.58	47.46%	48.79%	-10.30	8-5
1961-09-17	Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1559.81	1521.20	59.05%	37.21%	-14.71	0-1
1961-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-10	1545.10	1537.75	54.75%	41.51%	+23.38	1-1
1961-10-01	Chicago Bears	W 24-0	1568.48	1451.20	68.91%	27.36%	+17.07	2-1
1961-10-08	Baltimore Colts	W 45-7	1585.55	1520.17	62.58%	33.68%	+26.31	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 49-17	1611.86	1602.65	43.84%	52.41%	+37.04	4-1
1961-10-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-7	1648.90	1432.62	71.21%	25.06%	+16.31	5-1
1961-10-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-10	1665.21	1416.31	81.29%	15.01%	+8.18	6-1
1961-11-05	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-45	1673.39	1477.37	68.96%	27.31%	-42.04	6-2
1961-11-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1631.35	1526.41	57.42%	38.84%	+8.49	7-2
1961-11-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-17	1639.84	1443.85	76.97%	19.31%	+10.51	8-2
1961-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-9	1650.35	1548.71	56.96%	39.29%	+14.02	9-2
1961-12-03	New York Giants	W 20-17	1664.37	1650.80	55.62%	40.64%	+8.87	10-2
1961-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-22	1673.24	1532.14	62.24%	34.02%	-7.75	10-3
1961-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1665.49	1428.59	73.38%	22.89%	+7.74	11-3
1961-09-17	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-27	1467.60	1513.68	36.21%	60.05%	-7.93	0-1
1961-09-23	Chicago Bears	L 17-21	1459.67	1437.01	56.87%	39.38%	-14.18	0-2
1961-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-14	1445.49	1467.41	50.60%	45.65%	+18.12	1-2
1961-10-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-35	1463.61	1564.64	29.26%	67.00%	-22.01	1-3
1961-10-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-14	1441.60	1463.39	39.50%	56.75%	-4.98	1-4
1961-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 14-24	1436.62	1567.53	25.83%	70.44%	-10.42	1-5
1961-10-29	Detroit Lions	L 10-28	1426.20	1456.86	49.35%	46.91%	-26.21	1-6
1961-11-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-17	1399.99	1408.13	52.57%	43.69%	+20.56	2-6
1961-11-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-7	1420.55	1538.21	37.11%	59.15%	+23.30	3-6
1961-11-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-35	1443.85	1639.84	19.31%	76.97%	-10.50	3-7
1961-11-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-28	1433.35	1500.83	33.41%	62.85%	-8.47	3-8
1961-12-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-42	1424.88	1374.77	49.70%	46.55%	-28.51	3-9
1961-12-09	Baltimore Colts	W 34-17	1396.37	1541.39	33.51%	62.75%	+32.22	4-9
1961-12-17	Green Bay Packers	L 17-24	1428.59	1665.49	22.89%	73.38%	-7.75	4-10
1961-09-17	Chicago Bears	W 37-13	1500.00	1459.93	59.24%	37.01%	+22.92	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1522.92	1407.43	58.85%	37.40%	-27.44	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 33-34	1495.48	1515.15	39.79%	56.46%	-5.02	1-2
1961-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-28	1490.46	1421.66	63.02%	33.24%	-41.52	1-3
1961-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-38	1448.94	1586.65	34.46%	61.80%	-16.32	1-4
1961-10-22	Green Bay Packers	L 7-33	1432.62	1648.90	25.06%	71.21%	-16.31	1-5
1961-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1416.31	1665.21	15.01%	81.29%	-8.18	1-6
1961-11-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-31	1408.13	1399.99	43.69%	52.57%	-20.56	1-7
1961-11-12	Baltimore Colts	W 28-20	1387.57	1519.41	35.23%	61.03%	+21.50	2-7
1961-11-19	Detroit Lions	L 10-37	1409.07	1524.12	37.46%	58.79%	-24.59	2-8
1961-11-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1384.48	1532.00	24.04%	72.23%	-9.71	2-9
1961-12-03	Los Angeles Rams	W 42-21	1374.77	1424.88	46.55%	49.70%	+28.50	3-9
1961-12-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1403.27	1540.96	25.09%	71.18%	-7.84	3-10
1961-12-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 35-52	1395.43	1515.12	27.08%	69.18%	-14.22	3-11
1961-09-17	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-21	1519.32	1513.78	54.49%	41.76%	-22.55	0-1
1961-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1496.77	1478.49	45.13%	51.12%	+11.07	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1507.84	1372.69	61.47%	34.79%	+7.63	2-1
1961-10-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-9	1515.47	1541.13	38.97%	57.29%	+27.66	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-10	1543.13	1463.17	53.95%	42.31%	+24.40	4-1
1961-10-22	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1567.53	1436.62	70.44%	25.83%	+10.42	5-1
1961-10-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-17	1577.95	1414.15	73.91%	22.37%	-9.20	5-2
1961-11-05	Washington Redskins	W 53-0	1568.75	1313.21	81.78%	14.53%	+13.60	6-2
1961-11-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-21	1582.35	1626.86	47.36%	48.90%	+25.24	7-2
1961-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-21	1607.59	1513.49	66.17%	30.09%	+17.53	8-2
1961-11-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-21	1625.12	1608.45	44.90%	51.35%	+25.68	9-2
1961-12-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1650.80	1664.37	40.64%	55.62%	-8.87	9-3
1961-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1641.93	1604.70	47.85%	48.41%	+12.12	10-3
1961-12-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 7-7	1654.05	1585.47	62.99%	33.27%	-0.90	10-3
1961-09-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-20	1555.38	1586.24	49.32%	46.93%	+15.57	1-0
1961-09-24	Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1570.95	1379.37	76.57%	19.71%	+6.68	2-0
1961-10-01	St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-30	1577.63	1528.07	60.51%	35.75%	-13.05	2-1
1961-10-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-16	1564.58	1449.29	68.68%	27.59%	+7.85	3-1
1961-10-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-7	1572.43	1513.47	50.97%	45.29%	+20.51	4-1
1961-10-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 43-7	1592.94	1438.77	63.91%	32.35%	+24.62	5-1
1961-10-29	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1617.56	1317.01	79.22%	17.07%	+3.80	6-1
1961-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 16-14	1621.36	1531.92	65.60%	30.66%	+5.50	7-1
1961-11-12	@ New York Giants	L 21-38	1626.86	1582.35	48.90%	47.36%	-25.24	7-2
1961-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-45	1601.62	1582.40	45.27%	50.99%	-26.05	7-3
1961-11-26	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-13	1575.57	1380.41	76.89%	19.39%	+11.66	8-3
1961-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-24	1587.23	1504.03	54.40%	41.85%	+17.47	9-3
1961-12-10	New York Giants	L 24-28	1604.70	1641.93	48.41%	47.85%	-12.12	9-4
1961-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1592.58	1548.80	48.79%	47.46%	+10.30	10-4
1961-09-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1490.60	1395.31	56.09%	40.17%	-12.11	0-1
1961-09-24	New York Giants	L 14-17	1478.49	1496.77	51.12%	45.13%	-11.08	0-2
1961-10-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-24	1467.41	1445.49	45.65%	50.60%	-18.12	0-3
1961-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-21	1449.29	1564.58	27.59%	68.68%	-7.85	0-4
1961-10-15	Washington Redskins	W 20-0	1441.44	1354.57	65.29%	30.98%	+17.59	1-4
1961-10-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-30	1459.03	1565.60	38.61%	57.64%	-6.90	1-5
1961-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-10	1452.13	1561.91	38.18%	58.08%	+22.90	2-5
1961-11-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-13	1475.03	1591.32	27.47%	68.79%	+17.12	3-5
1961-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 37-7	1492.15	1402.83	65.59%	30.67%	+21.34	4-5
1961-11-19	@ New York Giants	L 21-42	1513.49	1607.59	30.09%	66.17%	-17.52	4-6
1961-11-26	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-27	1495.97	1454.57	59.42%	36.84%	+8.06	5-6
1961-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-35	1504.03	1587.23	41.85%	54.40%	-17.48	5-7
1961-12-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-14	1486.55	1267.88	71.47%	24.80%	+12.66	6-7
1961-12-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-20	1499.21	1472.66	46.32%	49.94%	-25.99	6-8
1961-09-17	Washington Redskins	W 35-3	1518.20	1398.93	69.13%	27.13%	+19.55	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-30	1537.75	1545.10	41.51%	54.75%	-23.38	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 49-0	1514.37	1542.38	38.65%	57.61%	+50.27	2-1
1961-10-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-0	1564.64	1463.61	67.00%	29.26%	+22.01	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 38-24	1586.65	1448.94	61.80%	34.46%	+16.33	4-1
1961-10-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-31	1602.98	1484.87	59.21%	37.05%	-41.07	4-2
1961-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-20	1561.91	1452.13	58.08%	38.18%	-22.89	4-3
1961-11-05	Detroit Lions	T 20-20	1539.02	1483.07	61.35%	34.91%	-0.81	4-3
1961-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-17	1538.21	1420.55	59.15%	37.11%	-23.30	4-4
1961-11-19	Chicago Bears	W 41-31	1514.91	1517.92	53.29%	42.96%	+17.09	5-4
1961-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-28	1532.00	1384.48	72.23%	24.04%	+9.70	6-4
1961-12-03	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-20	1541.70	1531.83	43.94%	52.32%	-9.56	6-5
1961-12-10	Green Bay Packers	W 22-21	1532.14	1673.24	34.02%	62.24%	+7.75	7-5
1961-12-16	Baltimore Colts	L 24-27	1539.89	1509.18	57.98%	38.28%	-12.52	7-6
1961-09-17	@ New York Giants	W 21-10	1513.78	1519.32	41.76%	54.49%	+22.56	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1536.34	1570.67	37.79%	58.47%	-8.27	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-27	1528.07	1577.63	35.75%	60.51%	+13.06	2-1
1961-10-08	New York Giants	L 9-24	1541.13	1515.47	57.29%	38.97%	-27.66	2-2
1961-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1513.47	1572.43	45.29%	50.97%	-20.51	2-3
1961-10-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-0	1492.96	1336.98	64.14%	32.12%	+19.97	3-3
1961-10-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-21	1512.93	1572.50	45.20%	51.05%	-18.83	3-4
1961-11-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1494.10	1423.35	52.65%	43.61%	+20.52	4-4
1961-11-12	Detroit Lions	L 14-45	1514.62	1483.88	57.98%	38.28%	-40.24	4-5
1961-11-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-16	1474.38	1497.91	39.26%	56.99%	-19.81	4-6
1961-11-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-30	1454.57	1495.97	36.84%	59.42%	-8.07	4-7
1961-12-03	Washington Redskins	W 38-24	1446.50	1278.38	74.34%	21.94%	+10.50	5-7
1961-12-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-13	1457.00	1353.97	67.24%	29.02%	+15.66	6-7
1961-12-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-0	1472.66	1499.21	49.94%	46.32%	+25.99	7-7
1961-09-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-35	1398.93	1518.20	27.13%	69.13%	-19.56	0-1
1961-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-14	1379.37	1570.95	19.71%	76.57%	-6.68	0-2
1961-10-01	New York Giants	L 21-24	1372.69	1507.84	34.79%	61.47%	-7.63	0-3
1961-10-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-31	1365.06	1592.15	16.68%	79.61%	-10.49	0-4
1961-10-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-20	1354.57	1441.44	30.98%	65.29%	-17.59	0-5
1961-10-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-24	1336.98	1492.96	32.12%	64.14%	-19.97	0-6
1961-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1317.01	1617.56	17.07%	79.22%	-3.80	0-7
1961-11-05	@ New York Giants	L 0-53	1313.21	1568.75	14.53%	81.78%	-13.60	0-8
1961-11-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-17	1299.61	1574.20	19.29%	76.99%	-8.20	0-9
1961-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 28-28	1291.41	1381.49	30.58%	65.68%	+1.07	0-9
1961-11-26	Baltimore Colts	L 6-27	1292.48	1517.72	24.10%	72.17%	-14.10	0-10
1961-12-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-38	1278.38	1446.50	21.94%	74.34%	-10.50	0-11
1961-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-30	1267.88	1486.55	24.80%	71.47%	-12.66	0-12
1961-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-24	1255.22	1338.31	41.87%	54.39%	+21.47	1-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-12-31	New York Giants	W 37-0	1673.23	1653.15	58.44%	41.56%	+30.49	1-0
1961-12-31	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-37	1653.15	1673.23	41.56%	58.44%	-30.49	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1961-10-29	22.37%	Dallas Cowboys	1414.15	17	@ New York Giants	1577.95	16
2	1961-11-05	27.31%	@ Baltimore Colts	1477.37	45	Green Bay Packers	1673.39	21
3	1961-11-05	27.47%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1475.03	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1591.32	13
4	1961-10-08	33.24%	Dallas Cowboys	1421.66	28	@ Minnesota Vikings	1490.46	0
5	1961-12-09	33.51%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1396.37	34	Baltimore Colts	1541.39	17
6	1961-12-10	34.02%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1532.14	22	Green Bay Packers	1673.24	21
7	1961-10-08	34.64%	Chicago Bears	1434.13	31	@ Detroit Lions	1492.11	17
8	1961-11-12	35.23%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1387.57	28	Baltimore Colts	1519.41	20
9	1961-10-01	35.75%	St. Louis Cardinals	1528.07	30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1577.63	27
10	1961-10-22	37.05%	@ Chicago Bears	1484.87	31	San Francisco 49ers	1602.98	0
11	1961-11-12	37.11%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1420.55	17	San Francisco 49ers	1538.21	7
12	1961-09-17	37.21%	Detroit Lions	1521.20	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1559.81	13
13	1961-09-24	37.40%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1407.43	21	Minnesota Vikings	1522.92	7
14	1961-10-29	38.18%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1452.13	20	San Francisco 49ers	1561.91	10
15	1961-11-12	38.28%	Detroit Lions	1483.88	45	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1514.62	14
16	1961-12-16	38.28%	Baltimore Colts	1509.18	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1539.89	24
17	1961-10-01	38.65%	San Francisco 49ers	1514.37	49	@ Detroit Lions	1542.38	0
18	1961-10-08	38.97%	New York Giants	1515.47	24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1541.13	9
19	1961-09-23	39.38%	Chicago Bears	1437.01	21	@ Los Angeles Rams	1459.67	17
20	1961-09-17	40.17%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1395.31	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1490.60	24
21	1961-12-10	40.27%	@ Chicago Bears	1503.03	17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1597.56	14
22	1961-09-17	41.76%	St. Louis Cardinals	1513.78	21	@ New York Giants	1519.32	10
23	1961-12-17	41.87%	@ Washington Redskins	1255.22	34	Dallas Cowboys	1338.31	24
24	1961-10-22	43.03%	Baltimore Colts	1471.83	17	@ Detroit Lions	1468.38	14
25	1961-10-15	43.84%	Green Bay Packers	1611.86	49	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1602.65	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1961-10-01	50.27	San Francisco 49ers	49	1514.37	38.65%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1542.38	57.61%
2	1961-11-05	42.04	@ Baltimore Colts	45	1477.37	27.31%	Green Bay Packers	21	1673.39	68.96%
3	1961-10-08	41.52	Dallas Cowboys	28	1421.66	33.24%	@ Minnesota Vikings	0	1490.46	63.02%
4	1961-10-22	41.08	@ Chicago Bears	31	1484.87	37.05%	San Francisco 49ers	0	1602.98	59.21%
5	1961-11-12	40.24	Detroit Lions	45	1483.88	38.28%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	14	1514.62	57.98%
6	1961-10-15	37.05	Green Bay Packers	49	1611.86	43.84%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	17	1602.65	52.41%
7	1961-12-09	32.22	@ Los Angeles Rams	34	1396.37	33.51%	Baltimore Colts	17	1541.39	62.75%
8	1961-12-31 *	30.49	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1673.23	58.44%	New York Giants	0	1653.15	41.56%
9	1961-10-08	28.72	Chicago Bears	31	1434.13	34.64%	@ Detroit Lions	17	1492.11	61.62%
10	1961-12-03	28.51	@ Minnesota Vikings	42	1374.77	46.55%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1424.88	49.70%
11	1961-10-08	27.66	New York Giants	24	1515.47	38.97%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	9	1541.13	57.29%
12	1961-09-24	27.44	@ Dallas Cowboys	21	1407.43	37.40%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1522.92	58.85%
13	1961-10-08	26.31	@ Green Bay Packers	45	1585.55	62.58%	Baltimore Colts	7	1520.17	33.68%
14	1961-10-29	26.21	Detroit Lions	28	1456.86	46.91%	@ Los Angeles Rams	10	1426.20	49.35%
15	1961-11-19	26.05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	45	1582.40	50.99%	Philadelphia Eagles	24	1601.62	45.27%
16	1961-12-17	25.99	@ St. Louis Cardinals	20	1472.66	49.94%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1499.21	46.32%
17	1961-11-26	25.68	New York Giants	37	1625.12	44.90%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1608.45	51.35%
18	1961-11-12	25.24	@ New York Giants	38	1582.35	47.36%	Philadelphia Eagles	21	1626.86	48.90%
19	1961-10-22	24.62	Philadelphia Eagles	43	1592.94	63.91%	@ Dallas Cowboys	7	1438.77	32.35%
20	1961-11-19	24.59	Detroit Lions	37	1524.12	58.79%	@ Minnesota Vikings	10	1409.07	37.46%
21	1961-10-15	24.40	New York Giants	31	1543.13	53.95%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1463.17	42.31%
22	1961-09-24	23.38	@ Green Bay Packers	30	1545.10	54.75%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1537.75	41.51%
23	1961-11-12	23.30	@ Los Angeles Rams	17	1420.55	37.11%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1538.21	59.15%
24	1961-09-17	22.92	@ Minnesota Vikings	37	1500.00	59.24%	Chicago Bears	13	1459.93	37.01%
25	1961-10-29	22.90	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	20	1452.13	38.18%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1561.91	58.08%