1959 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Baltimore Colts

2nd Title

Last Title: 1958

Runner-Up

New York Giants

11th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1958

Biggest Overachiever

Green Bay Packers

2.69 wins above expected

7 wins · 4.31 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Los Angeles Rams

3.78 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.78 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	10	2	0	.833	—	284	170	+114	7.41	+2.59
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	5	0	.583	3	270	214	+56	7.15	-0.15
3	Philadelphia Eagles	7	5	0	.583	3	268	278	-10	5.60	+1.40
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5	1	.542	3.5	257	216	+41	6.43	+0.07
5	Washington Redskins	3	9	0	.250	7	185	350	-165	4.65	-1.65
6	Chicago Cardinals	2	10	0	.167	8	234	324	-90	4.51	-2.51

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	9	3	0	.750	—	374	251	+123	7.96	+1.04
2	Chicago Bears	8	4	0	.667	1	252	196	+56	6.54	+1.46
3	Green Bay Packers	7	5	0	.583	2	248	246	+2	4.31	+2.69
4	San Francisco 49ers	7	5	0	.583	2	255	237	+18	6.55	+0.45
5	Detroit Lions	3	8	1	.292	5.5	203	275	-72	5.10	-1.60
6	Los Angeles Rams	2	10	0	.167	7	242	315	-73	5.78	-3.78

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Baltimore Colts 31

New York Giants 16

Dec 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	1666	9	7.96	+1.04	84.68%	2	5	7	8	9	10	12
New York Giants	East	1630	10	7.41	+2.59	98.08%	1	5	6	7	8	10	12
Chicago Bears	West	1595	8	6.54	+1.46	89.43%	0	4	5	6	8	9	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1579	7	7.15	-0.15	59.70%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1539	6.5	6.43	+0.07	54.60%	1	4	5	6	7	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1494	7	6.55	+0.45	73.11%	1	4	5	6	8	9	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1483	7	4.31	+2.69	97.45%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1469	7	5.60	+1.40	88.27%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1434	3.5	5.10	-1.60	18.55%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Los Angeles Rams	West	1414	2	5.78	-3.78	2.37%	0	3	5	6	7	8	12
Chicago Cardinals	East	1349	2	4.51	-2.51	12.14%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Washington Redskins	East	1348	3	4.65	-1.65	26.53%	0	2	3	5	6	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Green Bay Packers	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.08%	1.39%	1.39%	1.39%	—	0.69%	6.94%
7–13	2.08%	1.39%	2.78%	2.78%	4.86%	—	0.69%	14.58%
14–20	1.39%	2.78%	1.39%	9.72%	3.47%	2.08%	1.39%	22.22%
21–27	1.39%	2.78%	9.72%	6.94%	4.86%	1.39%	3.47%	30.56%
28–34	1.39%	4.86%	3.47%	4.86%	—	0.69%	—	15.28%
35–41	—	—	2.08%	1.39%	0.69%	—	—	4.17%
42+	0.69%	0.69%	1.39%	3.47%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.94%	14.58%	22.22%	30.56%	15.28%	4.17%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.33	21.33	+0.00
SD	10.95	10.95	16.92
CV	0.51	0.51	—
Max	49	49	+41
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	58.33%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.17	20.92	+10.25
SD	8.65	8.69	11.42
CV	0.28	0.42	—
Max	45	38	+31
Min	21	7	-7

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	16.33	+4.67
SD	8.24	7.18	10.12
CV	0.39	0.44	—
Max	31	28	+24
Min	6	3	-14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	27.00	-7.50
SD	14.53	9.28	16.76
CV	0.74	0.34	—
Max	49	45	+28
Min	3	9	-27

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	41.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	41.67%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	17.83	+4.67
SD	11.41	12.23	18.66
CV	0.51	0.69	—
Max	38	48	+27
Min	6	7	-41

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	41.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	8.33%	41.67%	33.33%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.92	22.92	-6.00
SD	10.29	8.45	14.09
CV	0.61	0.37	—
Max	45	34	+24
Min	7	7	-26

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
21–27	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	41.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	8.33%	41.67%	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.67	20.50	+0.17
SD	10.82	12.85	18.75
CV	0.52	0.63	—
Max	38	45	+22
Min	3	0	-39

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	—	8.33%	50.00%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.17	26.25	-6.08
SD	10.96	10.38	17.58
CV	0.54	0.40	—
Max	45	45	+39
Min	0	6	-34

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	25.00%	25.00%	33.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.67	14.17	+9.50
SD	12.55	12.55	17.38
CV	0.53	0.89	—
Max	48	49	+41
Min	9	3	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	—	25.00%	50.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.33	23.17	-0.83
SD	13.59	4.75	17.07
CV	0.61	0.20	—
Max	49	31	+28
Min	0	14	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.42	18.00	+3.42
SD	7.23	12.38	14.04
CV	0.34	0.69	—
Max	35	45	+31
Min	10	0	-21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	19.75	+1.50
SD	9.40	12.76	19.97
CV	0.44	0.65	—
Max	34	45	+34
Min	3	0	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	—	16.67%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.42	29.17	-13.75
SD	8.37	10.43	13.67
CV	0.54	0.36	—
Max	27	49	+9
Min	0	14	-31

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	7	4.31	+2.69
2	New York Giants	10	7.41	+2.59
3	Chicago Bears	8	6.54	+1.46
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	5.60	+1.40
5	Baltimore Colts	9	7.96	+1.04

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Rams	2	5.78	-3.78
2	Chicago Cardinals	2	4.51	-2.51
3	Washington Redskins	3	4.65	-1.65
4	Detroit Lions	3.5	5.10	-1.60
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	7.15	-0.15

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	7	Nov 1 – Dec 13	1 in 54
2	Green Bay Packers	4	Nov 22 – Dec 13	1 in 38
3	New York Giants	5	Oct 11 – Nov 8	1 in 18
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 15 – Nov 29	1 in 17
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Oct 18 – Nov 15	1 in 13

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Rams	8	Oct 25 – Dec 12	1 in 256
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	Nov 22 – Dec 6	1 in 18
3	Chicago Cardinals	6	Nov 8 – Dec 13	1 in 13
4	Detroit Lions	4	Sep 27 – Oct 18	1 in 11
5	Baltimore Colts	2	Nov 1 – Nov 8	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
New York Giants	36.93%	26.72%	17.18%	10.72%	5.97%	2.48%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.25%	25.55%	19.40%	12.91%	7.99%	3.90%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.67%	21.44%	21.81%	18.19%	13.66%	7.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.15%	13.55%	18.83%	22.26%	20.47%	15.74%
Washington Redskins	3.03%	6.89%	12.20%	18.65%	26.26%	32.97%
Chicago Cardinals	2.97%	5.85%	10.58%	17.27%	25.65%	37.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Baltimore Colts	49.66%	23.44%	13.55%	7.70%	4.04%	1.61%
Chicago Bears	17.69%	23.16%	21.59%	18.79%	12.34%	6.43%
San Francisco 49ers	17.19%	22.59%	21.38%	17.81%	13.14%	7.89%
Los Angeles Rams	8.45%	15.55%	19.74%	21.92%	20.38%	13.96%
Detroit Lions	5.12%	10.10%	14.50%	19.39%	25.68%	25.21%
Green Bay Packers	1.89%	5.16%	9.24%	14.39%	24.42%	44.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Baltimore Colts	29.78%	20.17%	13.60%	10.21%	7.87%	5.66%	4.49%	3.29%	2.24%	1.32%	0.94%	0.43%
New York Giants	17.70%	18.59%	14.18%	12.55%	8.88%	8.77%	5.95%	5.10%	3.52%	2.35%	1.62%	0.79%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	16.03%	14.63%	13.12%	11.94%	10.28%	8.93%	7.25%	5.95%	4.58%	3.66%	2.47%	1.16%
Chicago Bears	8.94%	9.36%	11.65%	11.52%	11.39%	9.83%	9.71%	8.82%	7.19%	5.35%	3.76%	2.48%
San Francisco 49ers	8.70%	9.74%	11.42%	11.05%	11.11%	9.68%	9.72%	8.36%	6.82%	6.00%	4.40%	3.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.66%	9.58%	9.94%	11.18%	11.00%	10.78%	9.66%	9.06%	7.27%	6.52%	4.37%	2.98%
Los Angeles Rams	3.93%	5.16%	7.30%	8.19%	9.50%	10.23%	10.88%	10.91%	10.84%	9.57%	7.42%	6.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.16%	5.11%	6.76%	7.47%	8.53%	10.37%	10.01%	11.03%	10.55%	10.54%	9.32%	7.15%
Detroit Lions	1.80%	3.04%	4.68%	5.55%	7.17%	7.75%	9.44%	9.88%	12.39%	12.91%	13.26%	12.13%
Washington Redskins	0.96%	1.76%	2.58%	4.04%	5.19%	6.79%	8.52%	10.08%	12.36%	13.73%	15.70%	18.29%
Chicago Cardinals	0.81%	1.71%	2.51%	3.31%	5.01%	5.87%	7.57%	9.19%	11.56%	14.40%	17.13%	20.93%
Green Bay Packers	0.53%	1.15%	2.26%	2.99%	4.07%	5.34%	6.80%	8.33%	10.68%	13.65%	19.61%	24.59%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	36.93%	63.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.25%	69.75%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.67%	82.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.15%	90.85%
Washington Redskins	3.03%	96.97%
Chicago Cardinals	2.97%	97.03%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	49.66%	50.34%
Chicago Bears	17.69%	82.31%
San Francisco 49ers	17.19%	82.81%
Los Angeles Rams	8.45%	91.55%
Detroit Lions	5.12%	94.88%
Green Bay Packers	1.89%	98.11%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	49.66%	33.00%
New York Giants	36.93%	19.40%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.25%	14.03%
Chicago Bears	17.69%	9.80%
San Francisco 49ers	17.19%	7.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.67%	7.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.15%	2.82%
Los Angeles Rams	8.45%	2.70%
Detroit Lions	5.12%	1.75%
Green Bay Packers	1.89%	0.77%
Washington Redskins	3.03%	0.62%
Chicago Cardinals	2.97%	0.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			1.49%	9.17%				10.70%	3.73%	6.75%		1.16%
Chicago Bears			0.36%	3.22%				3.19%	1.32%	1.24%		0.47%
Chicago Cardinals	0.14%	0.05%			0.05%	0.02%	0.10%				0.19%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	5.02%	2.74%			1.20%	0.34%	2.05%				2.68%
Detroit Lions			0.04%	0.63%				0.51%	0.27%	0.18%		0.12%
Green Bay Packers			0.02%	0.21%				0.22%	0.09%	0.20%		0.03%
Los Angeles Rams			0.17%	0.88%				0.62%	0.28%	0.56%		0.19%
New York Giants	7.69%	3.59%			1.45%	0.43%	1.95%				4.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.04%	0.49%			0.26%	0.08%	0.41%				0.54%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.56%	0.89%			0.39%	0.23%	1.13%				1.86%
San Francisco 49ers			0.34%	2.11%				2.29%	0.64%	1.68%		0.44%
Washington Redskins	0.21%	0.13%			0.02%	0.02%	0.11%				0.13%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	58.55%
New York Giants	41.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	New York Giants
Baltimore Colts		58.55%
New York Giants	41.45%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Baltimore Colts 58.55% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.55%

New York Giants 41.45% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.45%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1959-09-27	Detroit Lions	W 21-9	1584.10	1509.56	62.87%	35.34%	+14.31	1-0
1959-10-03	Chicago Bears	L 21-26	1598.41	1518.95	63.51%	34.69%	-16.47	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1581.94	1466.85	61.84%	36.37%	+11.24	2-1
1959-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-7	1593.18	1517.47	56.45%	41.76%	+18.22	3-1
1959-10-25	Green Bay Packers	W 38-21	1611.40	1414.44	76.95%	21.26%	+10.30	4-1
1959-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-38	1621.70	1569.16	59.92%	38.28%	-18.39	4-2
1959-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1603.31	1419.36	70.44%	27.77%	-14.14	4-3
1959-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-24	1589.17	1379.78	73.28%	24.93%	+5.85	5-3
1959-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 45-14	1595.02	1570.22	56.09%	42.12%	+27.34	6-3
1959-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-21	1622.36	1465.55	72.82%	25.39%	+11.14	7-3
1959-12-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-14	1633.50	1550.04	57.53%	40.68%	+21.22	8-3
1959-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 45-26	1654.72	1426.10	75.29%	22.92%	+11.73	9-3
1959-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-9	1531.87	1397.67	64.34%	33.86%	-12.92	0-1
1959-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 26-21	1518.95	1598.41	34.69%	63.51%	+16.47	1-1
1959-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-28	1535.42	1493.43	58.48%	39.73%	-17.95	1-2
1959-10-18	Baltimore Colts	L 7-21	1517.47	1593.18	41.76%	56.45%	-18.22	1-3
1959-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1499.25	1551.23	38.36%	59.85%	-7.76	1-4
1959-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 26-21	1491.49	1518.12	41.86%	56.34%	+14.62	2-4
1959-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 28-17	1506.11	1391.53	67.94%	30.26%	+11.76	3-4
1959-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-3	1517.87	1591.85	42.00%	56.21%	+21.63	4-4
1959-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1539.50	1454.39	57.76%	40.45%	+14.92	5-4
1959-11-29	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 31-7	1554.42	1400.54	66.83%	31.37%	+17.99	6-4
1959-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-21	1572.41	1539.93	57.16%	41.04%	+11.73	7-4
1959-12-13	Detroit Lions	W 25-14	1584.14	1444.63	70.89%	27.32%	+10.62	8-4
1959-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 49-21	1434.23	1475.23	46.68%	51.52%	+31.67	1-0
1959-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-34	1465.90	1525.20	44.07%	54.13%	-26.68	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-23	1439.22	1462.24	42.37%	55.84%	-14.82	1-2
1959-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1424.40	1538.28	30.35%	67.86%	-11.23	1-3
1959-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1413.17	1457.07	46.27%	51.94%	-10.78	1-4
1959-11-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-24	1402.39	1521.78	35.80%	62.41%	+33.17	2-4
1959-11-08	@ New York Giants	L 3-9	1435.56	1567.32	28.22%	69.99%	-8.10	2-5
1959-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1427.46	1463.64	40.53%	57.68%	-14.95	2-6
1959-11-22	New York Giants	L 20-30	1412.51	1558.69	32.33%	65.87%	-11.97	2-7
1959-11-29	Chicago Bears	L 7-31	1400.54	1554.42	31.37%	66.83%	-17.99	2-8
1959-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-45	1382.55	1421.70	40.12%	58.09%	-22.93	2-9
1959-12-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-35	1359.62	1528.20	24.13%	74.08%	-10.96	2-10
1959-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1543.03	1523.09	48.49%	49.71%	-17.83	0-1
1959-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-7	1525.20	1465.90	54.13%	44.07%	+26.68	1-1
1959-10-11	New York Giants	L 6-10	1551.88	1508.86	58.62%	39.59%	-13.60	1-2
1959-10-18	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-7	1538.28	1424.40	67.86%	30.35%	+11.23	2-2
1959-10-25	Washington Redskins	W 34-7	1549.51	1451.53	65.89%	32.32%	+19.65	3-2
1959-11-01	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-31	1569.16	1621.70	38.28%	59.92%	+18.39	4-2
1959-11-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-7	1587.55	1480.36	67.04%	31.17%	+16.72	5-2
1959-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-17	1604.27	1433.50	68.89%	29.32%	+12.85	6-2
1959-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-21	1617.12	1504.75	67.68%	30.53%	-7.84	6-3
1959-11-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-21	1609.28	1542.88	61.79%	36.41%	-7.17	6-4
1959-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 7-48	1602.11	1585.79	47.97%	50.23%	-35.74	6-5
1959-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-21	1566.37	1481.63	57.71%	40.50%	+12.50	7-5
1959-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 9-21	1509.56	1584.10	35.34%	62.87%	-14.31	0-1
1959-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1495.25	1410.59	57.69%	40.51%	-28.40	0-2
1959-10-11	Baltimore Colts	L 24-31	1466.85	1581.94	36.37%	61.84%	-11.24	0-3
1959-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-34	1455.61	1528.72	42.12%	56.08%	-22.51	0-4
1959-10-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 17-7	1433.10	1542.81	30.86%	67.35%	+24.69	1-4
1959-11-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-33	1457.79	1558.98	31.91%	66.29%	-19.04	1-5
1959-11-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 10-10	1438.75	1488.62	38.65%	59.56%	+0.60	1-5
1959-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-17	1439.35	1489.68	45.35%	52.86%	+15.04	2-5
1959-11-22	Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1454.39	1539.50	40.45%	57.76%	-14.92	2-6
1959-11-26	Green Bay Packers	L 17-24	1439.47	1401.79	57.88%	40.32%	-17.77	2-7
1959-12-06	Chicago Cardinals	W 45-21	1421.70	1382.55	58.09%	40.12%	+22.93	3-7
1959-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-25	1444.63	1584.14	27.32%	70.89%	-10.62	3-8
1959-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 9-6	1397.67	1531.87	33.86%	64.34%	+12.92	1-0
1959-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 28-10	1410.59	1495.25	40.51%	57.69%	+28.40	2-0
1959-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-20	1438.99	1535.60	38.86%	59.34%	+6.89	3-0
1959-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-45	1445.88	1511.38	43.20%	55.01%	-31.44	3-1
1959-10-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-38	1414.44	1611.40	21.26%	76.95%	-10.30	3-2
1959-11-01	@ New York Giants	L 3-20	1404.14	1554.71	26.08%	72.13%	-12.61	3-3
1959-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-28	1391.53	1506.11	30.26%	67.94%	-11.75	3-4
1959-11-15	Baltimore Colts	L 24-28	1379.78	1589.17	24.93%	73.28%	-5.85	3-5
1959-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 21-0	1373.93	1420.65	45.87%	52.34%	+27.86	4-5
1959-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1401.79	1439.47	40.32%	57.88%	+17.77	5-5
1959-12-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-20	1419.56	1454.40	40.72%	57.49%	+28.30	6-5
1959-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 36-14	1447.86	1528.82	34.50%	63.71%	+34.65	7-5
1959-09-26	New York Giants	L 21-23	1535.30	1538.87	52.06%	46.14%	-8.55	0-1
1959-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-34	1526.75	1502.28	49.15%	49.06%	-33.32	0-2
1959-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1493.43	1535.42	39.73%	58.48%	+17.95	1-2
1959-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 45-6	1511.38	1445.88	55.01%	43.20%	+31.43	2-2
1959-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1542.81	1433.10	67.35%	30.86%	-24.69	2-3
1959-11-01	Chicago Bears	L 21-26	1518.12	1491.49	56.34%	41.86%	-14.62	2-4
1959-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-24	1503.50	1578.03	41.93%	56.28%	-13.82	2-5
1959-11-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-23	1489.68	1439.35	52.86%	45.35%	-15.04	2-6
1959-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1474.64	1478.59	45.07%	53.14%	-9.09	2-7
1959-11-29	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-35	1465.55	1622.36	25.39%	72.82%	-11.15	2-8
1959-12-06	Green Bay Packers	L 20-38	1454.40	1419.56	57.49%	40.72%	-28.30	2-9
1959-12-12	Baltimore Colts	L 26-45	1426.10	1654.72	22.92%	75.29%	-11.73	2-10
1959-09-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-21	1538.87	1535.30	46.14%	52.06%	+8.55	1-0
1959-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-49	1547.42	1424.77	62.84%	35.37%	-38.56	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-6	1508.86	1551.88	39.59%	58.62%	+13.60	2-1
1959-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-7	1522.46	1475.88	59.11%	39.10%	+18.82	3-1
1959-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-16	1541.28	1535.21	46.50%	51.70%	+13.43	4-1
1959-11-01	Green Bay Packers	W 20-3	1554.71	1404.14	72.13%	26.08%	+12.61	5-1
1959-11-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 9-3	1567.32	1435.56	69.99%	28.22%	+8.10	6-1
1959-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-14	1575.42	1488.02	64.54%	33.66%	-16.73	6-2
1959-11-22	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 30-20	1558.69	1412.51	65.87%	32.33%	+11.96	7-2
1959-11-29	Washington Redskins	W 45-14	1570.65	1392.79	75.05%	23.16%	+15.14	8-2
1959-12-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 48-7	1585.79	1602.11	50.23%	47.97%	+35.74	9-2
1959-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1621.53	1356.38	78.80%	19.41%	+8.54	10-2
1959-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1439.08	1487.97	38.78%	59.43%	-14.31	0-1
1959-10-04	New York Giants	W 49-21	1424.77	1547.42	35.37%	62.84%	+38.55	1-1
1959-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-24	1463.32	1522.24	44.13%	54.08%	+12.56	2-1
1959-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 7-24	1475.88	1522.46	39.10%	59.11%	-18.81	2-2
1959-10-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-24	1457.07	1413.17	51.94%	46.27%	+10.77	3-2
1959-11-01	Washington Redskins	W 30-23	1467.84	1431.88	57.64%	40.56%	+12.52	4-2
1959-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-28	1480.36	1587.55	31.17%	67.04%	-16.72	4-3
1959-11-15	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-17	1463.64	1427.46	57.68%	40.53%	+14.95	5-3
1959-11-22	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1478.59	1474.64	53.14%	45.07%	+9.09	6-3
1959-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-31	1487.68	1512.60	42.10%	56.10%	-27.33	6-4
1959-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-14	1460.35	1377.65	57.42%	40.78%	+21.28	7-4
1959-12-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-28	1481.63	1566.37	40.50%	57.71%	-12.50	7-5
1959-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1523.09	1543.03	49.71%	48.49%	+17.84	1-0
1959-10-04	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1540.93	1443.55	65.81%	32.39%	-18.69	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1522.24	1463.32	54.08%	44.13%	-12.56	1-2
1959-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-6	1509.68	1477.06	50.32%	47.89%	+25.53	2-2
1959-10-25	New York Giants	L 16-21	1535.21	1541.28	51.70%	46.50%	-13.43	2-3
1959-11-01	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 24-45	1521.78	1402.39	62.41%	35.80%	-33.16	2-4
1959-11-08	Detroit Lions	T 10-10	1488.62	1438.75	59.56%	38.65%	-0.60	2-4
1959-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 14-9	1488.02	1575.42	33.66%	64.54%	+16.73	3-4
1959-11-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-20	1504.75	1617.12	30.53%	67.68%	+7.85	4-4
1959-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-0	1512.60	1487.68	56.10%	42.10%	+27.33	5-4
1959-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-27	1539.93	1572.41	41.04%	57.16%	-11.73	5-5
1959-12-13	Chicago Cardinals	W 35-20	1528.20	1359.62	74.08%	24.13%	+10.97	6-5
1959-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1487.97	1439.08	59.43%	38.78%	+14.31	1-0
1959-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-0	1502.28	1526.75	49.06%	49.15%	+33.32	2-0
1959-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-21	1535.60	1438.99	59.34%	38.86%	-6.88	2-1
1959-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-13	1528.72	1455.61	56.08%	42.12%	+22.51	3-1
1959-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1551.23	1499.25	59.85%	38.36%	+7.75	4-1
1959-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 33-7	1558.98	1457.79	66.29%	31.91%	+19.05	5-1
1959-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-16	1578.03	1503.50	56.28%	41.93%	+13.82	6-1
1959-11-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-14	1591.85	1517.87	56.21%	42.00%	-21.63	6-2
1959-11-22	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-45	1570.22	1595.02	42.12%	56.09%	-27.34	6-3
1959-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-20	1542.88	1609.28	36.41%	61.79%	+7.16	7-3
1959-12-05	Baltimore Colts	L 14-34	1550.04	1633.50	40.68%	57.53%	-21.22	7-4
1959-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-36	1528.82	1447.86	63.71%	34.50%	-34.65	7-5
1959-09-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 21-49	1475.23	1434.23	51.52%	46.68%	-31.68	0-1
1959-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-17	1443.55	1540.93	32.39%	65.81%	+18.69	1-1
1959-10-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 23-14	1462.24	1439.22	55.84%	42.37%	+14.82	2-1
1959-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-27	1477.06	1509.68	47.89%	50.32%	-25.53	2-2
1959-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-34	1451.53	1549.51	32.32%	65.89%	-19.65	2-3
1959-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-30	1431.88	1467.84	40.56%	57.64%	-12.52	2-4
1959-11-08	Baltimore Colts	W 27-24	1419.36	1603.31	27.77%	70.44%	+14.14	3-4
1959-11-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-31	1433.50	1604.27	29.32%	68.89%	-12.85	3-5
1959-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-21	1420.65	1373.93	52.34%	45.87%	-27.86	3-6
1959-11-29	@ New York Giants	L 14-45	1392.79	1570.65	23.16%	75.05%	-15.14	3-7
1959-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-34	1377.65	1460.35	40.78%	57.42%	-21.27	3-8
1959-12-13	New York Giants	L 10-24	1356.38	1621.53	19.41%	78.80%	-8.54	3-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1959-12-27	New York Giants	W 31-16	1666.45	1630.07	58.63%	41.37%	+18.30	1-0
1959-12-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 16-31	1630.07	1666.45	41.37%	58.63%	-18.30	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1959-11-08	27.77%	@ Washington Redskins	1419.36	27	Baltimore Colts	1603.31	24
2	1959-11-22	30.53%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1504.75	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1617.12	20
3	1959-10-25	30.86%	Detroit Lions	1433.10	17	@ Los Angeles Rams	1542.81	7
4	1959-10-04	32.39%	Washington Redskins	1443.55	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1540.93	17
5	1959-11-15	33.66%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1488.02	14	@ New York Giants	1575.42	9
6	1959-09-27	33.86%	@ Green Bay Packers	1397.67	9	Chicago Bears	1531.87	6
7	1959-12-13	34.50%	Green Bay Packers	1447.86	36	@ San Francisco 49ers	1528.82	14
8	1959-10-03	34.69%	Chicago Bears	1518.95	26	@ Baltimore Colts	1598.41	21
9	1959-10-04	35.37%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1424.77	49	New York Giants	1547.42	21
10	1959-11-01	35.80%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1402.39	45	Pittsburgh Steelers	1521.78	24
11	1959-11-29	36.41%	San Francisco 49ers	1542.88	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1609.28	20
12	1959-11-01	38.28%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1569.16	38	@ Baltimore Colts	1621.70	31
13	1959-10-11	38.86%	@ Green Bay Packers	1438.99	21	San Francisco 49ers	1535.60	20
14	1959-10-11	39.59%	New York Giants	1508.86	10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1551.88	6
15	1959-10-11	39.73%	Los Angeles Rams	1493.43	28	@ Chicago Bears	1535.42	21
16	1959-11-26	40.32%	Green Bay Packers	1401.79	24	@ Detroit Lions	1439.47	17
17	1959-10-04	40.51%	@ Green Bay Packers	1410.59	28	Detroit Lions	1495.25	10
18	1959-12-06	40.72%	Green Bay Packers	1419.56	38	@ Los Angeles Rams	1454.40	20
19	1959-11-01	41.86%	Chicago Bears	1491.49	26	@ Los Angeles Rams	1518.12	21
20	1959-11-15	42.00%	@ Chicago Bears	1517.87	14	San Francisco 49ers	1591.85	3
21	1959-10-11	44.13%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1463.32	28	Pittsburgh Steelers	1522.24	24
22	1959-11-15	45.35%	@ Detroit Lions	1439.35	23	Los Angeles Rams	1489.68	17
23	1959-11-22	45.87%	@ Green Bay Packers	1373.93	21	Washington Redskins	1420.65	0
24	1959-09-26	46.14%	New York Giants	1538.87	23	@ Los Angeles Rams	1535.30	21
25	1959-10-25	46.50%	New York Giants	1541.28	21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1535.21	16

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1959-10-04	38.56	@ Philadelphia Eagles	49	1424.77	35.37%	New York Giants	21	1547.42	62.84%
2	1959-12-06	35.74	@ New York Giants	48	1585.79	50.23%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1602.11	47.97%
3	1959-12-13	34.65	Green Bay Packers	36	1447.86	34.50%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1528.82	63.71%
4	1959-10-04	33.32	@ San Francisco 49ers	34	1502.28	49.06%	Los Angeles Rams	0	1526.75	49.15%
5	1959-11-01	33.17	@ Chicago Cardinals	45	1402.39	35.80%	Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1521.78	62.41%
6	1959-09-27	31.68	@ Chicago Cardinals	49	1434.23	46.68%	Washington Redskins	21	1475.23	51.52%
7	1959-10-18	31.44	Los Angeles Rams	45	1511.38	55.01%	@ Green Bay Packers	6	1445.88	43.20%
8	1959-10-04	28.40	@ Green Bay Packers	28	1410.59	40.51%	Detroit Lions	10	1495.25	57.69%
9	1959-12-06	28.30	Green Bay Packers	38	1419.56	40.72%	@ Los Angeles Rams	20	1454.40	57.49%
10	1959-11-22	27.86	@ Green Bay Packers	21	1373.93	45.87%	Washington Redskins	0	1420.65	52.34%
11	1959-11-22	27.34	@ Baltimore Colts	45	1595.02	56.09%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1570.22	42.12%
12	1959-11-29	27.33	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1512.60	56.10%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1487.68	42.10%
13	1959-10-04	26.68	Cleveland Browns (1st)	34	1525.20	54.13%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1465.90	44.07%
14	1959-10-18	25.53	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1509.68	50.32%	@ Washington Redskins	6	1477.06	47.89%
15	1959-10-25	24.69	Detroit Lions	17	1433.10	30.86%	@ Los Angeles Rams	7	1542.81	67.35%
16	1959-12-06	22.93	@ Detroit Lions	45	1421.70	58.09%	Chicago Cardinals	21	1382.55	40.12%
17	1959-10-18	22.51	San Francisco 49ers	34	1528.72	56.08%	@ Detroit Lions	13	1455.61	42.12%
18	1959-11-15	21.63	@ Chicago Bears	14	1517.87	42.00%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1591.85	56.21%
19	1959-12-06	21.28	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1460.35	57.42%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1377.65	40.78%
20	1959-12-05	21.22	Baltimore Colts	34	1633.50	57.53%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1550.04	40.68%
21	1959-10-25	19.65	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	34	1549.51	65.89%	Washington Redskins	7	1451.53	32.32%
22	1959-11-01	19.05	@ San Francisco 49ers	33	1558.98	66.29%	Detroit Lions	7	1457.79	31.91%
23	1959-10-18	18.82	@ New York Giants	24	1522.46	59.11%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1475.88	39.10%
24	1959-10-04	18.69	Washington Redskins	23	1443.55	32.39%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	17	1540.93	65.81%
25	1959-11-01	18.39	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1569.16	38.28%	@ Baltimore Colts	31	1621.70	59.92%