1958 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Baltimore Colts

1st Title

Runner-Up

New York Giants

10th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1956

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

2.31 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.69 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Green Bay Packers

2.60 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.10 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	9	3	0	.750	—	302	217	+85	7.57	+1.43
2	New York Giants Playoffs	9	3	0	.750	—	246	183	+63	6.69	+2.31
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	4	1	.625	1.5	261	230	+31	6.02	+1.48
4	Washington Redskins	4	7	1	.375	4.5	214	268	-54	5.76	-1.26
5	Philadelphia Eagles	2	9	1	.208	6.5	235	306	-71	4.89	-2.39
6	Chicago Cardinals	2	9	1	.208	6.5	261	356	-95	4.69	-2.19

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	9	3	0	.750	—	381	203	+178	7.46	+1.54
2	Chicago Bears	8	4	0	.667	1	298	230	+68	6.57	+1.43
3	Los Angeles Rams	8	4	0	.667	1	344	278	+66	6.50	+1.50
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	6	0	.500	3	257	324	-67	5.40	+0.60
5	Detroit Lions	4	7	1	.375	4.5	261	276	-15	6.36	-1.86
6	Green Bay Packers	1	10	1	.125	7.5	193	382	-189	4.10	-2.60

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

New York Giants 10

Cleveland Browns (1st) 0

Dec 21

NFL Championship Game

Baltimore Colts 23

New York Giants 17

Dec 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	1627	9	7.46	+1.54	92.28%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1597	9	7.57	+1.43	91.75%	1	5	6	7	8	10	12
New York Giants	East	1576	9	6.69	+2.31	96.98%	0	4	5	6	8	9	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1568	8	6.50	+1.50	91.79%	0	4	5	6	7	9	12
Chicago Bears	West	1560	8	6.57	+1.43	90.86%	1	4	5	6	7	9	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1546	7.5	6.02	+1.48	85.64%	1	3	5	6	7	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1518	4.5	6.36	-1.86	16.86%	1	3	5	6	7	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1483	6	5.40	+0.60	80.40%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Washington Redskins	East	1458	4.5	5.76	-1.26	27.38%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1379	2.5	4.89	-2.39	9.13%	0	2	4	5	6	7	11
Chicago Cardinals	East	1373	2.5	4.69	-2.19	11.38%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1316	1.5	4.10	-2.60	5.91%	0	1	3	4	5	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—
New York Giants	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Detroit Lions	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	2.08%	1.39%	2.08%	—	0.69%	6.25%
7–13	—	2.78%	2.08%	3.47%	3.47%	2.08%	1.39%	15.28%
14–20	2.08%	2.08%	4.17%	8.33%	3.47%	0.69%	—	20.83%
21–27	1.39%	3.47%	8.33%	5.56%	2.08%	4.17%	1.39%	26.39%
28–34	2.08%	3.47%	3.47%	2.08%	1.39%	0.69%	1.39%	14.58%
35–41	—	2.08%	0.69%	4.17%	0.69%	2.78%	0.69%	11.11%
42+	0.69%	1.39%	—	1.39%	1.39%	0.69%	—	5.56%
Total	6.25%	15.28%	20.83%	26.39%	14.58%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.59	22.59	+0.00
SD	11.61	11.61	17.78
CV	0.51	0.51	—
Max	56	56	+56
Min	0	0	-56

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.75	16.92	+14.83
SD	13.02	11.74	17.48
CV	0.41	0.69	—
Max	56	38	+56
Min	12	0	-9

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	25.00%	41.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.83	19.17	+5.67
SD	10.94	13.72	14.27
CV	0.44	0.72	—
Max	38	51	+22
Min	0	6	-17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	33.33%	16.67%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	29.67	-7.92
SD	8.01	13.32	16.57
CV	0.37	0.45	—
Max	37	49	+27
Min	7	6	-30

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	33.33%	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.17	18.08	+7.08
SD	10.78	7.43	12.96
CV	0.43	0.41	—
Max	45	30	+33
Min	10	10	-20

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	25.00%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	23.00	-1.25
SD	10.06	9.82	14.19
CV	0.46	0.43	—
Max	41	42	+20
Min	7	10	-26

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	—	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.08	31.83	-15.75
SD	9.39	11.95	15.08
CV	0.58	0.38	—
Max	38	56	+3
Min	0	13	-56

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	16.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
Total	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	41.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.67	23.17	+5.50
SD	13.88	12.63	21.41
CV	0.48	0.55	—
Max	56	41	+49
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	41.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.50	15.25	+5.25
SD	8.48	9.19	15.41
CV	0.41	0.60	—
Max	37	31	+30
Min	6	0	-21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	—	8.33%	58.33%	25.00%	8.33%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.58	25.50	-5.92
SD	13.63	5.33	12.96
CV	0.70	0.21	—
Max	49	38	+28
Min	0	20	-21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	—	—	8.33%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	19.17	+2.58
SD	9.64	10.62	16.40
CV	0.44	0.55	—
Max	38	45	+21
Min	6	3	-33

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	41.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	8.33%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.42	27.00	-5.58
SD	12.77	12.01	21.63
CV	0.60	0.44	—
Max	48	56	+27
Min	3	12	-49

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	—	25.00%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	—	25.00%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.83	22.33	-4.50
SD	12.42	10.27	17.12
CV	0.70	0.46	—
Max	45	37	+20
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	9	6.69	+2.31
2	Baltimore Colts	9	7.46	+1.54
3	Los Angeles Rams	8	6.50	+1.50
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	7.5	6.02	+1.48
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	7.57	+1.43

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	1.5	4.10	-2.60
2	Philadelphia Eagles	2.5	4.89	-2.39
3	Chicago Cardinals	2.5	4.69	-2.19
4	Detroit Lions	4.5	6.36	-1.86
5	Washington Redskins	4.5	5.76	-1.26

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Nov 2 – Nov 30	1 in 32
2	Baltimore Colts	6	Sep 28 – Nov 2	1 in 22
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Sep 28 – Oct 26	1 in 19
4	New York Giants	4	Nov 23 – Dec 14	1 in 9
5	Chicago Bears	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 6

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	6	Nov 9 – Dec 13	1 in 20
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	2	Nov 2 – Nov 9	1 in 14
3	Green Bay Packers	7	Nov 2 – Dec 14	1 in 13
4	Baltimore Colts	2	Dec 6 – Dec 14	1 in 7
5	Los Angeles Rams	2	Oct 19 – Oct 26	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.34%	23.88%	14.46%	9.12%	5.01%	2.19%
New York Giants	22.65%	25.14%	20.03%	15.24%	10.76%	6.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.10%	18.79%	20.84%	18.93%	16.81%	11.53%
Washington Redskins	10.92%	15.81%	19.49%	21.04%	17.94%	14.80%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.77%	9.21%	13.59%	18.17%	24.48%	29.78%
Chicago Cardinals	3.22%	7.17%	11.59%	17.50%	25.00%	35.52%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Baltimore Colts	38.14%	24.64%	16.44%	11.33%	6.68%	2.77%
Chicago Bears	19.95%	21.54%	20.17%	18.09%	13.50%	6.75%
Los Angeles Rams	18.28%	20.74%	21.01%	17.94%	14.52%	7.51%
Detroit Lions	15.60%	19.15%	19.89%	19.33%	16.74%	9.29%
San Francisco 49ers	6.62%	10.52%	15.92%	20.58%	26.05%	20.31%
Green Bay Packers	1.41%	3.41%	6.57%	12.73%	22.51%	53.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	24.13%	19.81%	13.08%	10.94%	8.12%	6.86%	5.03%	4.47%	3.32%	2.19%	1.41%	0.64%
Baltimore Colts	22.26%	17.22%	13.54%	11.07%	9.46%	6.95%	6.07%	4.73%	3.76%	2.55%	1.72%	0.67%
New York Giants	11.15%	11.69%	11.52%	11.30%	10.70%	10.01%	8.15%	7.76%	6.43%	5.16%	4.05%	2.08%
Chicago Bears	9.85%	11.00%	11.18%	10.78%	10.96%	9.63%	9.17%	8.20%	7.13%	5.56%	3.92%	2.62%
Los Angeles Rams	9.70%	9.46%	11.21%	10.50%	10.73%	9.95%	9.36%	8.79%	7.15%	6.06%	4.30%	2.79%
Detroit Lions	7.96%	8.56%	10.57%	9.78%	10.23%	9.88%	9.73%	9.10%	8.38%	6.93%	5.62%	3.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.20%	7.41%	8.69%	9.74%	9.74%	10.35%	9.42%	9.70%	9.04%	8.80%	6.65%	5.26%
Washington Redskins	4.38%	5.65%	6.80%	8.74%	8.68%	10.29%	10.09%	10.72%	9.49%	9.70%	8.38%	7.08%
San Francisco 49ers	2.55%	4.16%	5.26%	6.20%	8.03%	8.20%	10.65%	10.14%	12.05%	12.31%	11.22%	9.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.47%	2.48%	3.79%	4.87%	5.71%	7.58%	8.46%	9.68%	10.98%	13.27%	15.14%	16.57%
Chicago Cardinals	1.00%	1.83%	2.90%	3.93%	4.53%	6.37%	7.93%	9.63%	11.65%	13.71%	17.38%	19.14%
Green Bay Packers	0.35%	0.73%	1.46%	2.15%	3.11%	3.93%	5.94%	7.08%	10.62%	13.76%	20.21%	30.66%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.34%	54.66%
New York Giants	22.65%	77.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.10%	86.90%
Washington Redskins	10.92%	89.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.77%	95.23%
Chicago Cardinals	3.22%	96.78%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	38.14%	61.86%
Chicago Bears	19.95%	80.05%
Los Angeles Rams	18.28%	81.72%
Detroit Lions	15.60%	84.40%
San Francisco 49ers	6.62%	93.38%
Green Bay Packers	1.41%	98.59%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.34%	28.57%
Baltimore Colts	38.14%	19.49%
New York Giants	22.65%	13.82%
Chicago Bears	19.95%	8.22%
Los Angeles Rams	18.28%	7.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.10%	7.41%
Detroit Lions	15.60%	5.57%
Washington Redskins	10.92%	4.73%
San Francisco 49ers	6.62%	2.13%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.77%	1.45%
Chicago Cardinals	3.22%	1.01%
Green Bay Packers	1.41%	0.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			1.05%	8.23%				3.52%	1.40%	2.84%		2.45%
Chicago Bears			0.41%	3.35%				1.88%	0.67%	0.64%		1.27%
Chicago Cardinals	0.37%	0.17%			0.30%	0.02%	0.08%				0.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	9.89%	6.28%			4.63%	0.56%	4.91%				2.30%
Detroit Lions			0.32%	1.87%				1.12%	0.48%	0.83%		0.95%
Green Bay Packers			0.02%	0.04%				0.07%		0.02%		0.02%
Los Angeles Rams			0.31%	2.46%				1.78%	0.62%	1.11%		1.15%
New York Giants	3.94%	2.93%			2.32%	0.32%	3.02%				1.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.51%	0.29%			0.27%	0.01%	0.30%				0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.62%	1.10%			1.46%	0.21%	1.57%				0.45%
San Francisco 49ers			0.10%	0.82%				0.46%	0.15%	0.25%		0.35%
Washington Redskins	1.32%	0.96%			1.05%	0.12%	0.97%				0.31%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	54.93%
Baltimore Colts	45.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	New York Giants
Baltimore Colts		45.07%
New York Giants	54.93%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New York Giants 54.93% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.93%

Baltimore Colts 45.07% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.07%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1958-09-28	Detroit Lions	W 28-15	1521.95	1558.28	53.03%	42.43%	+16.89	1-0
1958-10-04	Chicago Bears	W 51-38	1538.84	1518.89	60.71%	34.76%	+13.93	2-0
1958-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1552.77	1417.58	56.45%	39.01%	+11.43	3-0
1958-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 40-14	1564.20	1517.14	43.95%	51.51%	+28.74	4-0
1958-10-26	Washington Redskins	W 35-10	1592.94	1494.83	70.14%	25.36%	+14.22	5-0
1958-11-02	Green Bay Packers	W 56-0	1607.16	1401.48	80.08%	15.46%	+13.10	6-0
1958-11-09	@ New York Giants	L 21-24	1620.26	1548.42	47.50%	47.96%	-9.03	6-1
1958-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-0	1611.23	1559.03	44.68%	50.78%	+22.92	7-1
1958-11-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-7	1634.15	1559.99	67.43%	28.05%	+16.31	8-1
1958-11-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-27	1650.46	1453.38	79.42%	16.12%	+5.16	9-1
1958-12-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 28-30	1655.62	1554.00	51.76%	43.70%	-8.01	9-2
1958-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 12-21	1647.61	1462.12	63.10%	32.37%	-20.62	9-3
1958-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-20	1498.59	1437.51	45.95%	49.51%	+20.30	1-0
1958-10-04	@ Baltimore Colts	L 38-51	1518.89	1538.84	34.76%	60.71%	-13.93	1-1
1958-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-6	1504.96	1475.27	61.97%	33.50%	+17.49	2-1
1958-10-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-10	1522.45	1561.43	52.65%	42.81%	+21.63	3-1
1958-10-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-14	1544.08	1472.35	47.48%	47.98%	+18.99	4-1
1958-11-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 35-41	1563.07	1510.74	44.70%	50.76%	-12.05	4-2
1958-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1551.02	1388.38	76.54%	18.98%	+8.01	5-2
1958-11-16	Baltimore Colts	L 0-17	1559.03	1611.23	50.78%	44.68%	-22.93	5-3
1958-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-7	1536.10	1552.74	35.20%	60.27%	+23.69	6-3
1958-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1559.79	1518.87	43.08%	52.38%	-17.78	6-4
1958-12-07	Chicago Cardinals	W 30-14	1542.01	1391.04	75.48%	20.04%	+9.04	7-4
1958-12-14	Detroit Lions	W 21-16	1551.05	1526.65	61.29%	34.19%	+8.50	8-4
1958-09-28	New York Giants	L 7-37	1444.88	1521.17	47.32%	48.14%	-28.47	0-1
1958-10-04	Washington Redskins	W 37-10	1416.41	1527.67	42.34%	53.12%	+30.18	1-1
1958-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-35	1446.59	1579.09	21.79%	73.71%	-6.49	1-2
1958-10-19	@ New York Giants	W 23-6	1440.10	1554.73	23.60%	71.90%	+32.28	2-2
1958-10-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-38	1472.38	1596.77	40.50%	54.96%	-16.76	2-3
1958-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	T 21-21	1455.62	1409.19	64.09%	31.39%	-0.87	2-3
1958-11-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 31-45	1454.75	1467.79	35.67%	59.80%	-14.82	2-4
1958-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-49	1439.93	1395.54	43.57%	51.89%	-25.41	2-5
1958-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-27	1414.52	1505.72	45.19%	50.28%	-13.16	2-6
1958-11-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-20	1401.36	1543.68	38.04%	57.43%	-10.32	2-7
1958-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-30	1391.04	1542.01	20.04%	75.48%	-9.04	2-8
1958-12-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-38	1382.00	1536.49	19.71%	75.81%	-9.16	2-9
1958-09-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-27	1537.33	1512.56	40.81%	54.65%	+10.34	1-0
1958-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-12	1547.67	1489.46	45.54%	49.92%	+31.42	2-0
1958-10-12	Chicago Cardinals	W 35-28	1579.09	1446.59	73.71%	21.79%	+6.49	3-0
1958-10-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-10	1585.58	1476.52	71.32%	24.18%	+11.19	4-0
1958-10-26	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 38-24	1596.77	1472.38	54.96%	40.50%	+16.76	5-0
1958-11-02	New York Giants	L 17-21	1613.53	1533.59	68.10%	27.39%	-14.83	5-1
1958-11-09	Detroit Lions	L 10-30	1598.70	1508.62	69.25%	26.24%	-33.72	5-2
1958-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-10	1564.98	1482.61	49.01%	46.45%	+16.15	6-2
1958-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-14	1581.13	1420.95	76.32%	19.20%	+8.10	7-2
1958-11-30	Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1589.23	1448.76	74.49%	21.02%	+6.27	8-2
1958-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-14	1595.50	1403.89	63.87%	31.61%	+9.32	9-2
1958-12-14	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1604.82	1568.36	42.45%	53.01%	-8.11	9-3
1958-09-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 15-28	1558.28	1521.95	42.43%	53.03%	-16.88	0-1
1958-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	T 13-13	1541.40	1417.20	54.93%	40.53%	-0.38	0-1
1958-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 28-42	1541.02	1537.56	58.52%	36.95%	-23.88	0-2
1958-10-19	Baltimore Colts	L 14-40	1517.14	1564.20	51.51%	43.95%	-28.74	0-3
1958-10-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 41-24	1488.40	1539.80	30.78%	64.70%	+29.05	1-3
1958-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1517.45	1453.36	46.38%	49.08%	-8.83	1-4
1958-11-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-10	1508.62	1598.70	26.24%	69.25%	+33.71	2-4
1958-11-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-21	1542.33	1439.01	70.70%	24.79%	+10.41	3-4
1958-11-23	Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1552.74	1536.10	60.27%	35.20%	-23.68	3-5
1958-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1529.06	1341.58	78.66%	16.88%	+6.03	4-5
1958-12-07	New York Giants	L 17-19	1535.09	1559.92	54.64%	40.82%	-8.44	4-6
1958-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-21	1526.65	1551.05	34.19%	61.29%	-8.50	4-7
1958-09-28	Chicago Bears	L 20-34	1437.51	1498.59	49.51%	45.95%	-20.31	0-1
1958-10-05	Detroit Lions	T 13-13	1417.20	1541.40	40.53%	54.93%	+0.38	0-1
1958-10-12	Baltimore Colts	L 17-24	1417.58	1552.77	39.01%	56.45%	-11.42	0-2
1958-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-37	1406.16	1482.38	27.81%	67.67%	-12.45	0-3
1958-10-26	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-35	1393.71	1416.96	54.86%	40.60%	+7.77	1-3
1958-11-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-56	1401.48	1607.16	15.46%	80.08%	-13.10	1-4
1958-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1388.38	1551.02	18.98%	76.54%	-8.01	1-5
1958-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-20	1380.37	1545.99	34.93%	60.54%	-14.00	1-6
1958-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-33	1366.37	1428.60	49.35%	46.12%	-24.79	1-7
1958-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-24	1341.58	1529.06	16.88%	78.66%	-6.03	1-8
1958-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-48	1335.55	1448.23	23.80%	71.70%	-13.90	1-9
1958-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-34	1321.65	1562.01	13.03%	82.54%	-5.53	1-10
1958-09-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-30	1512.56	1537.33	54.65%	40.81%	-10.34	0-1
1958-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 33-3	1502.22	1510.61	36.29%	59.18%	+35.34	1-1
1958-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-28	1537.56	1541.02	36.95%	58.52%	+23.87	2-1
1958-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-31	1561.43	1522.45	42.81%	52.65%	-21.63	2-2
1958-10-26	Detroit Lions	L 24-41	1539.80	1488.40	64.70%	30.78%	-29.06	2-3
1958-11-02	Chicago Bears	W 41-35	1510.74	1563.07	50.76%	44.70%	+12.06	3-3
1958-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 56-7	1522.80	1462.20	65.83%	29.66%	+23.19	4-3
1958-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-7	1545.99	1380.37	60.54%	34.93%	+14.00	5-3
1958-11-23	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-34	1559.99	1634.15	28.05%	67.43%	-16.31	5-4
1958-11-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 20-14	1543.68	1401.36	57.43%	38.04%	+10.32	6-4
1958-12-06	Baltimore Colts	W 30-28	1554.00	1655.62	43.70%	51.76%	+8.01	7-4
1958-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 34-20	1562.01	1321.65	82.54%	13.03%	+5.53	8-4
1958-09-28	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 37-7	1521.17	1444.88	48.14%	47.32%	+28.46	1-0
1958-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1549.63	1440.00	52.89%	42.57%	-10.01	1-1
1958-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1539.62	1497.50	43.25%	52.21%	+15.11	2-1
1958-10-19	Chicago Cardinals	L 6-23	1554.73	1440.10	71.90%	23.60%	-32.28	2-2
1958-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-6	1522.45	1465.32	65.40%	30.08%	+11.14	3-2
1958-11-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-17	1533.59	1613.53	27.39%	68.10%	+14.83	4-2
1958-11-09	Baltimore Colts	W 24-21	1548.42	1620.26	47.96%	47.50%	+9.03	5-2
1958-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-31	1557.45	1481.54	48.08%	47.38%	-24.18	5-3
1958-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 30-0	1533.27	1466.47	66.57%	28.92%	+17.70	6-3
1958-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-10	1550.97	1412.85	74.26%	21.25%	+8.95	7-3
1958-12-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 19-17	1559.92	1535.09	40.82%	54.64%	+8.44	8-3
1958-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-10	1568.36	1604.82	53.01%	42.45%	+8.12	9-3
1958-09-28	Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1457.56	1510.11	50.73%	44.73%	-17.56	0-1
1958-10-05	New York Giants	W 27-24	1440.00	1549.63	42.57%	52.89%	+10.01	1-1
1958-10-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-24	1450.01	1458.04	36.34%	59.13%	-18.48	1-2
1958-10-19	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-30	1431.53	1457.78	54.44%	41.02%	-14.57	1-3
1958-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 35-38	1416.96	1393.71	40.60%	54.86%	-7.77	1-4
1958-11-02	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 21-21	1409.19	1455.62	31.39%	64.09%	+0.87	1-4
1958-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-31	1410.06	1467.01	50.10%	45.36%	-14.52	1-5
1958-11-16	Chicago Cardinals	W 49-21	1395.54	1439.93	51.89%	43.57%	+25.41	2-5
1958-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-28	1420.95	1581.13	19.20%	76.32%	-8.10	2-6
1958-11-30	@ New York Giants	L 10-24	1412.85	1550.97	21.25%	74.26%	-8.96	2-7
1958-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-21	1403.89	1595.50	31.61%	63.87%	-9.32	2-8
1958-12-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1394.57	1442.65	31.18%	64.29%	-15.55	2-9
1958-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1496.47	1503.60	36.46%	59.01%	-7.01	0-1
1958-10-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 12-45	1489.46	1547.67	49.92%	45.54%	-31.42	0-2
1958-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-3	1458.04	1450.01	59.13%	36.34%	+18.48	1-2
1958-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-27	1476.52	1585.58	24.18%	71.32%	-11.20	1-3
1958-10-26	@ New York Giants	L 6-17	1465.32	1522.45	30.08%	65.40%	-11.13	1-4
1958-11-02	Washington Redskins	W 24-16	1454.19	1480.61	54.42%	41.05%	+12.82	2-4
1958-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-24	1467.01	1410.06	45.36%	50.10%	+14.53	3-4
1958-11-16	New York Giants	W 31-10	1481.54	1557.45	47.38%	48.08%	+24.18	4-4
1958-11-23	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 27-20	1505.72	1414.52	50.28%	45.19%	+13.15	5-4
1958-11-30	Chicago Bears	W 24-10	1518.87	1559.79	52.38%	43.08%	+17.78	6-4
1958-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	T 14-14	1536.65	1442.50	50.70%	44.76%	-0.16	6-4
1958-12-13	Chicago Cardinals	W 38-21	1536.49	1382.00	75.81%	19.71%	+9.17	7-4
1958-09-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1503.60	1496.47	59.01%	36.46%	+7.01	1-0
1958-10-05	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-33	1510.61	1502.22	59.18%	36.29%	-35.34	1-1
1958-10-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-28	1475.27	1504.96	33.50%	61.97%	-17.49	1-2
1958-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-24	1457.78	1431.53	41.02%	54.44%	+14.57	2-2
1958-10-26	Chicago Bears	L 14-27	1472.35	1544.08	47.98%	47.48%	-18.99	2-3
1958-11-02	Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1453.36	1517.45	49.08%	46.38%	+8.84	3-3
1958-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-56	1462.20	1522.80	29.66%	65.83%	-23.19	3-4
1958-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-35	1439.01	1542.33	24.79%	70.70%	-10.41	3-5
1958-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 33-12	1428.60	1366.37	46.12%	49.35%	+24.78	4-5
1958-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 27-35	1453.38	1650.46	16.12%	79.42%	-5.15	4-6
1958-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 48-21	1448.23	1335.55	71.70%	23.80%	+13.89	5-6
1958-12-14	Baltimore Colts	W 21-12	1462.12	1647.61	32.37%	63.10%	+20.62	6-6
1958-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1510.11	1457.56	44.73%	50.73%	+17.56	1-0
1958-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 10-37	1527.67	1416.41	53.12%	42.34%	-30.17	1-1
1958-10-12	New York Giants	L 14-21	1497.50	1539.62	52.21%	43.25%	-15.12	1-2
1958-10-19	Green Bay Packers	W 37-21	1482.38	1406.16	67.67%	27.81%	+12.45	2-2
1958-10-26	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-35	1494.83	1592.94	25.36%	70.14%	-14.22	2-3
1958-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-24	1480.61	1454.19	41.05%	54.42%	-12.82	2-4
1958-11-09	Chicago Cardinals	W 45-31	1467.79	1454.75	59.80%	35.67%	+14.82	3-4
1958-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-20	1482.61	1564.98	46.45%	49.01%	-16.14	3-5
1958-11-23	@ New York Giants	L 0-30	1466.47	1533.27	28.92%	66.57%	-17.71	3-6
1958-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-21	1448.76	1589.23	21.02%	74.49%	-6.26	3-7
1958-12-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 14-14	1442.50	1536.65	44.76%	50.70%	+0.15	3-7
1958-12-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-0	1442.65	1394.57	64.29%	31.18%	+15.56	4-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1958-12-28	@ New York Giants	W 23-17	1626.99	1590.53	44.70%	55.30%	+14.20	1-0
1958-12-21	@ New York Giants	L 0-10	1596.71	1576.48	42.40%	57.60%	-14.05	0-1
1958-12-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-0	1576.48	1596.71	57.60%	42.40%	+14.05	1-0
1958-12-28	Baltimore Colts	L 17-23	1590.53	1626.99	55.30%	44.70%	-14.20	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1958-10-19	23.60%	Chicago Cardinals	1440.10	23	@ New York Giants	1554.73	6
2	1958-11-09	26.24%	Detroit Lions	1508.62	30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1598.70	10
3	1958-11-02	27.39%	New York Giants	1533.59	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1613.53	17
4	1958-10-26	30.78%	Detroit Lions	1488.40	41	@ Los Angeles Rams	1539.80	24
5	1958-12-14	32.37%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1462.12	21	Baltimore Colts	1647.61	12
6	1958-11-23	35.20%	Chicago Bears	1536.10	20	@ Detroit Lions	1552.74	7
7	1958-10-05	36.29%	Los Angeles Rams	1502.22	33	@ San Francisco 49ers	1510.61	3
8	1958-10-12	36.95%	Los Angeles Rams	1537.56	42	@ Detroit Lions	1541.02	28
9	1958-09-28	40.81%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1537.33	30	@ Los Angeles Rams	1512.56	27
10	1958-12-07	40.82%	New York Giants	1559.92	19	@ Detroit Lions	1535.09	17
11	1958-10-19	41.02%	San Francisco 49ers	1457.78	30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1431.53	24
12	1958-10-04	42.34%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1416.41	37	Washington Redskins	1527.67	10
13	1958-10-05	42.57%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1440.00	27	New York Giants	1549.63	24
14	1958-10-12	43.25%	New York Giants	1539.62	21	@ Washington Redskins	1497.50	14
15	1958-12-06	43.70%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1554.00	30	Baltimore Colts	1655.62	28
16	1958-10-19	43.95%	Baltimore Colts	1564.20	40	@ Detroit Lions	1517.14	14
17	1958-11-16	44.68%	Baltimore Colts	1611.23	17	@ Chicago Bears	1559.03	0
18	1958-12-28 *	44.70%	Baltimore Colts	1626.99	23	@ New York Giants	1590.53	17
19	1958-09-28	44.73%	Washington Redskins	1510.11	24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1457.56	14
20	1958-11-09	45.36%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1467.01	31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1410.06	24
21	1958-10-05	45.54%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1547.67	45	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1489.46	12
22	1958-09-28	45.95%	Chicago Bears	1498.59	34	@ Green Bay Packers	1437.51	20
23	1958-11-23	46.12%	San Francisco 49ers	1428.60	33	@ Green Bay Packers	1366.37	12
24	1958-11-16	47.38%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1481.54	31	New York Giants	1557.45	10
25	1958-10-26	47.48%	Chicago Bears	1544.08	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1472.35	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1958-10-05	35.34	Los Angeles Rams	33	1502.22	36.29%	@ San Francisco 49ers	3	1510.61	59.18%
2	1958-11-09	33.72	Detroit Lions	30	1508.62	26.24%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1598.70	69.25%
3	1958-10-19	32.28	Chicago Cardinals	23	1440.10	23.60%	@ New York Giants	6	1554.73	71.90%
4	1958-10-05	31.42	Cleveland Browns (1st)	45	1547.67	45.54%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	12	1489.46	49.92%
5	1958-10-04	30.18	@ Chicago Cardinals	37	1416.41	42.34%	Washington Redskins	10	1527.67	53.12%
6	1958-10-26	29.06	Detroit Lions	41	1488.40	30.78%	@ Los Angeles Rams	24	1539.80	64.70%
7	1958-10-19	28.74	Baltimore Colts	40	1564.20	43.95%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1517.14	51.51%
8	1958-09-28	28.47	New York Giants	37	1521.17	48.14%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1444.88	47.32%
9	1958-11-16	25.41	@ Philadelphia Eagles	49	1395.54	51.89%	Chicago Cardinals	21	1439.93	43.57%
10	1958-11-23	24.79	San Francisco 49ers	33	1428.60	46.12%	@ Green Bay Packers	12	1366.37	49.35%
11	1958-11-16	24.18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1481.54	47.38%	New York Giants	10	1557.45	48.08%
12	1958-10-12	23.88	Los Angeles Rams	42	1537.56	36.95%	@ Detroit Lions	28	1541.02	58.52%
13	1958-11-23	23.69	Chicago Bears	20	1536.10	35.20%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1552.74	60.27%
14	1958-11-09	23.19	@ Los Angeles Rams	56	1522.80	65.83%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1462.20	29.66%
15	1958-11-16	22.93	Baltimore Colts	17	1611.23	44.68%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1559.03	50.78%
16	1958-10-19	21.63	@ Chicago Bears	31	1522.45	52.65%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1561.43	42.81%
17	1958-12-14	20.62	@ San Francisco 49ers	21	1462.12	32.37%	Baltimore Colts	12	1647.61	63.10%
18	1958-09-28	20.31	Chicago Bears	34	1498.59	45.95%	@ Green Bay Packers	20	1437.51	49.51%
19	1958-10-26	18.99	Chicago Bears	27	1544.08	47.48%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1472.35	47.98%
20	1958-10-12	18.48	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1458.04	59.13%	Philadelphia Eagles	3	1450.01	36.34%
21	1958-11-30	17.78	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1518.87	52.38%	Chicago Bears	10	1559.79	43.08%
22	1958-11-23	17.71	@ New York Giants	30	1533.27	66.57%	Washington Redskins	0	1466.47	28.92%
23	1958-09-28	17.56	Washington Redskins	24	1510.11	44.73%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	14	1457.56	50.73%
24	1958-10-12	17.49	@ Chicago Bears	28	1504.96	61.97%	San Francisco 49ers	6	1475.27	33.50%
25	1958-09-28	16.89	@ Baltimore Colts	28	1521.95	53.03%	Detroit Lions	15	1558.28	42.43%