1956 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New York Giants

4th Title

Last Title: 1938

Runner-Up

Chicago Bears

9th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1946

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.32 wins above expected

9 wins · 7.18 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

2.07 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.57 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	8	3	1	.708	—	264	197	+67	7.00	+1.50
2	Chicago Cardinals	7	5	0	.583	1.5	240	182	+58	6.25	+0.75
3	Washington Redskins	6	6	0	.500	2.5	183	225	-42	5.62	+0.38
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	7	0	.417	3.5	217	250	-33	4.92	+0.08
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	7	0	.417	3.5	167	177	-10	6.66	-1.66
6	Philadelphia Eagles	3	8	1	.292	5	143	215	-72	5.57	-2.07

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	9	2	1	.792	—	363	246	+117	7.18	+2.32
2	Detroit Lions	9	3	0	.750	0.5	300	188	+112	6.92	+2.08
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	6	1	.458	4	233	284	-51	4.82	+0.68
4	Baltimore Colts	5	7	0	.417	4.5	270	322	-52	5.67	-0.67
5	Green Bay Packers	4	8	0	.333	5.5	264	342	-78	5.67	-1.67
6	Los Angeles Rams	4	8	0	.333	5.5	291	307	-16	5.72	-1.72

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

New York Giants 47

Chicago Bears 7

Dec 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1616	9.5	7.18	+2.32	93.76%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
Detroit Lions	West	1588	9	6.92	+2.08	95.70%	1	4	6	7	8	9	12
New York Giants	East	1574	8.5	7.00	+1.50	84.21%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
Chicago Cardinals	East	1544	7	6.25	+0.75	80.30%	1	3	5	6	7	9	11
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1517	5	6.66	-1.66	27.84%	1	4	5	7	8	9	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1482	5	4.92	+0.08	68.59%	0	2	4	5	6	7	11
Washington Redskins	East	1473	6	5.62	+0.38	74.01%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Los Angeles Rams	West	1469	4	5.72	-1.72	26.97%	0	3	4	6	7	8	11
San Francisco 49ers	West	1452	5.5	4.82	+0.68	69.97%	0	2	3	5	6	7	10
Baltimore Colts	West	1440	5	5.67	-0.67	50.57%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1425	3.5	5.57	-2.07	12.69%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1420	4	5.67	-1.67	27.23%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—
New York Giants	—	0-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.69%	2.08%	1.39%	1.39%	—	—	5.56%
7–13	0.69%	4.17%	4.17%	5.56%	3.47%	0.69%	1.39%	20.14%
14–20	2.08%	4.17%	16.67%	1.39%	2.78%	1.39%	0.69%	29.17%
21–27	1.39%	5.56%	1.39%	2.78%	2.08%	5.56%	2.08%	20.83%
28–34	1.39%	3.47%	2.78%	2.08%	1.39%	0.69%	—	11.81%
35–41	—	0.69%	1.39%	5.56%	0.69%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	1.39%	0.69%	2.08%	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	5.56%	20.14%	29.17%	20.83%	11.81%	8.33%	4.17%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.38	20.38	+0.00
SD	11.10	11.10	16.10
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	58	58	+38
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	8.33%	16.67%	33.33%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	26.83	-4.33
SD	13.75	12.72	18.84
CV	0.61	0.47	—
Max	56	58	+35
Min	3	7	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	33.33%	—	—	—	41.67%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	50.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.25	20.50	+9.75
SD	13.82	10.08	16.87
CV	0.46	0.49	—
Max	58	42	+31
Min	10	3	-32

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	25.00%	33.33%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	15.17	+4.83
SD	11.54	8.63	12.00
CV	0.58	0.57	—
Max	38	27	+28
Min	3	3	-13

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	—	41.67%
14–20	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	33.33%	25.00%	33.33%	—	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.92	14.75	-0.83
SD	6.20	7.97	12.35
CV	0.45	0.54	—
Max	24	24	+17
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	8.33%	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	15.67	+9.33
SD	9.68	9.33	15.74
CV	0.39	0.60	—
Max	45	38	+38
Min	16	3	-17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	—	16.67%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	—	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	28.50	-6.50
SD	9.69	10.35	14.96
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	42	49	+25
Min	7	17	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	16.67%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.25	25.58	-1.33
SD	10.62	15.28	20.79
CV	0.44	0.60	—
Max	49	56	+28
Min	7	6	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	25.00%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	33.33%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	16.42	+5.58
SD	9.91	10.08	15.76
CV	0.45	0.61	—
Max	38	35	+28
Min	7	3	-26

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	41.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.92	17.92	-6.00
SD	9.06	6.60	10.87
CV	0.76	0.37	—
Max	35	28	+14
Min	0	7	-20

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	25.00%	33.33%	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.08	20.83	-2.75
SD	8.74	14.31	18.46
CV	0.48	0.69	—
Max	30	45	+23
Min	7	0	-38

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	50.00%	—	25.00%	16.67%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.42	23.67	-4.25
SD	10.10	9.30	13.65
CV	0.52	0.39	—
Max	38	38	+18
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	41.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	58.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	41.67%	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	18.75	-3.50
SD	8.61	7.85	15.05
CV	0.56	0.42	—
Max	33	31	+26
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	9.5	7.18	+2.32
2	Detroit Lions	9	6.92	+2.08
3	New York Giants	8.5	7.00	+1.50
4	Chicago Cardinals	7	6.25	+0.75
5	San Francisco 49ers	5.5	4.82	+0.68

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	3.5	5.57	-2.07
2	Los Angeles Rams	4	5.72	-1.72
3	Green Bay Packers	4	5.67	-1.67
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	6.66	-1.66
5	Baltimore Colts	5	5.67	-0.67

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Redskins	5	Oct 21 – Nov 25	1 in 123
2	Detroit Lions	6	Sep 30 – Nov 4	1 in 56
3	Chicago Bears	7	Oct 7 – Nov 18	1 in 29
4	Chicago Cardinals	4	Sep 30 – Oct 21	1 in 24
5	New York Giants	5	Oct 14 – Nov 11	1 in 17

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Rams	5	Oct 7 – Nov 4	1 in 27
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	Oct 14 – Oct 28	1 in 23
3	Green Bay Packers	4	Oct 28 – Nov 18	1 in 20
4	San Francisco 49ers	5	Oct 14 – Nov 11	1 in 10
5	Washington Redskins	3	Sep 30 – Oct 14	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
New York Giants	31.53%	22.48%	17.46%	13.09%	9.37%	6.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	25.32%	21.93%	17.94%	14.60%	11.87%	8.34%
Chicago Cardinals	17.86%	19.02%	19.16%	17.68%	14.66%	11.62%
Washington Redskins	10.57%	13.42%	17.04%	18.24%	20.74%	19.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.67%	14.24%	16.59%	19.20%	20.36%	19.94%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.05%	8.91%	11.81%	17.19%	23.00%	34.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Chicago Bears	35.18%	24.21%	16.70%	11.66%	7.84%	4.41%
Detroit Lions	29.27%	24.65%	17.74%	13.79%	9.31%	5.24%
Los Angeles Rams	10.99%	14.66%	17.79%	19.30%	19.44%	17.82%
Baltimore Colts	10.14%	14.18%	17.49%	19.52%	19.89%	18.78%
Green Bay Packers	9.99%	13.87%	17.76%	19.81%	20.47%	18.10%
San Francisco 49ers	4.43%	8.43%	12.52%	15.92%	23.05%	35.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Chicago Bears	20.22%	15.31%	13.31%	10.51%	8.98%	7.71%	6.68%	5.13%	4.40%	3.57%	2.66%	1.52%
New York Giants	17.46%	14.13%	12.20%	10.70%	9.26%	8.03%	7.51%	5.85%	4.94%	4.38%	3.33%	2.21%
Detroit Lions	15.62%	14.38%	11.99%	11.90%	9.04%	8.48%	6.92%	6.93%	5.22%	4.39%	3.04%	2.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.36%	12.82%	11.38%	10.12%	9.77%	8.59%	8.20%	6.95%	6.35%	5.53%	4.59%	3.34%
Chicago Cardinals	8.50%	9.66%	9.19%	9.55%	10.03%	8.90%	9.22%	8.86%	8.12%	6.80%	6.05%	5.12%
Los Angeles Rams	4.95%	5.87%	7.33%	7.89%	8.15%	9.24%	9.20%	9.79%	9.62%	9.49%	9.09%	9.38%
Baltimore Colts	4.38%	5.63%	6.94%	8.10%	8.09%	9.00%	9.19%	9.58%	9.76%	10.28%	10.16%	8.89%
Green Bay Packers	4.61%	5.66%	6.74%	7.36%	8.55%	9.03%	9.43%	9.56%	10.41%	10.04%	9.55%	9.06%
Washington Redskins	4.69%	5.71%	6.20%	6.98%	8.77%	8.94%	9.06%	9.32%	9.79%	10.77%	10.23%	9.54%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.65%	5.42%	6.95%	7.51%	7.98%	8.86%	9.48%	10.04%	9.87%	9.96%	10.07%	10.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.87%	2.76%	3.88%	4.99%	5.50%	6.65%	7.94%	9.47%	11.12%	11.93%	16.01%	17.88%
San Francisco 49ers	1.69%	2.65%	3.89%	4.39%	5.88%	6.57%	7.17%	8.52%	10.40%	12.86%	15.22%	20.76%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	31.53%	68.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	25.32%	74.68%
Chicago Cardinals	17.86%	82.14%
Washington Redskins	10.57%	89.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.67%	90.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.05%	94.95%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	35.18%	64.82%
Detroit Lions	29.27%	70.73%
Los Angeles Rams	10.99%	89.01%
Baltimore Colts	10.14%	89.86%
Green Bay Packers	9.99%	90.01%
San Francisco 49ers	4.43%	95.57%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	31.53%	20.14%
Chicago Bears	35.18%	18.68%
Detroit Lions	29.27%	14.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	25.32%	13.77%
Chicago Cardinals	17.86%	10.75%
Washington Redskins	10.57%	5.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.67%	4.22%
Los Angeles Rams	10.99%	3.45%
Baltimore Colts	10.14%	2.94%
Green Bay Packers	9.99%	2.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.05%	2.72%
San Francisco 49ers	4.43%	1.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			0.45%	0.69%				0.83%	0.46%	0.23%		0.28%
Chicago Bears			2.79%	5.10%				4.61%	2.46%	1.19%		2.53%
Chicago Cardinals	1.40%	3.05%			2.96%	1.16%	1.53%				0.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.60%	4.31%			3.88%	1.43%	1.68%				0.87%
Detroit Lions			2.59%	4.01%				3.81%	1.61%	0.52%		1.59%
Green Bay Packers			0.43%	0.62%				0.80%	0.40%	0.19%		0.37%
Los Angeles Rams			0.62%	0.81%				1.04%	0.37%	0.12%		0.49%
New York Giants	2.72%	5.22%			5.56%	2.78%	2.90%				0.96%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.62%	1.44%			0.95%	0.64%	0.43%				0.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.38%	0.83%			0.65%	0.35%	0.35%				0.16%
San Francisco 49ers			0.23%	0.32%				0.30%	0.15%	0.08%		0.22%
Washington Redskins	0.48%	1.65%			1.14%	0.82%	0.65%				0.35%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	53.79%
Chicago Bears	46.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New York Giants
Chicago Bears		46.21%
New York Giants	53.79%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New York Giants 53.79% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.79%

Chicago Bears 46.21% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.21%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1956-09-30	Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1474.29	1518.19	51.98%	44.95%	+13.39	1-0
1956-10-06	Detroit Lions	L 14-31	1487.68	1504.16	55.85%	41.07%	-25.78	1-1
1956-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 33-38	1461.90	1459.01	39.19%	57.73%	-9.90	1-2
1956-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 27-58	1452.00	1546.07	26.94%	69.99%	-17.09	1-3
1956-10-28	Green Bay Packers	W 28-21	1434.91	1494.19	49.78%	47.15%	+14.03	2-3
1956-11-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-7	1448.94	1522.49	29.33%	67.60%	+28.26	3-3
1956-11-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-27	1477.20	1562.33	27.97%	68.97%	-15.60	3-4
1956-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 56-21	1461.60	1465.01	57.66%	39.27%	+26.26	4-4
1956-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1487.86	1399.63	69.32%	27.61%	-13.42	4-5
1956-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-31	1474.44	1421.01	46.31%	50.62%	-25.52	4-6
1956-12-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-30	1448.92	1435.07	40.71%	56.22%	-16.58	4-7
1956-12-23	Washington Redskins	W 19-17	1432.34	1479.82	51.47%	45.46%	+7.24	5-7
1956-09-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-28	1518.19	1474.29	44.95%	51.98%	-13.39	0-1
1956-10-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 37-21	1504.80	1483.74	41.72%	55.21%	+24.73	1-1
1956-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-7	1529.53	1458.99	67.24%	29.69%	+16.54	2-1
1956-10-21	Baltimore Colts	W 58-27	1546.07	1452.00	69.99%	26.94%	+17.09	3-1
1956-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-21	1563.16	1437.15	56.63%	40.29%	+18.76	4-1
1956-11-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 35-24	1581.92	1470.20	54.64%	42.29%	+15.82	5-1
1956-11-11	Green Bay Packers	W 38-14	1597.74	1454.39	75.21%	21.73%	+12.17	6-1
1956-11-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-21	1609.91	1472.67	74.60%	22.34%	+7.66	7-1
1956-11-25	@ New York Giants	T 17-17	1617.57	1574.30	44.85%	52.07%	+0.19	7-1
1956-12-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-42	1617.76	1561.13	46.77%	50.16%	-29.75	7-2
1956-12-09	Chicago Cardinals	W 10-3	1588.01	1524.61	66.37%	30.56%	+9.19	8-2
1956-12-16	Detroit Lions	W 38-21	1597.20	1607.20	56.75%	40.18%	+18.71	9-2
1956-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 9-7	1480.44	1558.87	47.02%	49.90%	+7.92	1-0
1956-10-07	New York Giants	W 35-27	1488.36	1546.51	49.94%	46.98%	+14.94	2-0
1956-10-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-3	1503.30	1474.02	42.87%	54.05%	+32.05	3-0
1956-10-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-6	1535.35	1517.87	41.21%	55.71%	+23.34	4-0
1956-10-28	Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1558.69	1461.45	70.35%	26.58%	-13.62	4-1
1956-11-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-17	1545.07	1480.95	66.46%	30.47%	+11.49	5-1
1956-11-11	@ New York Giants	L 10-23	1556.56	1592.71	33.98%	62.94%	-13.90	5-2
1956-11-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1542.66	1439.51	53.43%	43.50%	-15.84	5-3
1956-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-27	1526.82	1455.35	67.35%	29.58%	+11.16	6-3
1956-12-02	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1537.98	1451.78	69.09%	27.84%	-13.37	6-4
1956-12-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-10	1524.61	1588.01	30.56%	66.37%	-9.19	6-5
1956-12-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-7	1515.42	1545.36	34.79%	62.14%	+28.64	7-5
1956-09-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-9	1558.87	1480.44	49.90%	47.02%	-7.92	0-1
1956-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-10	1550.95	1486.42	47.90%	49.02%	+11.01	1-1
1956-10-14	New York Giants	L 9-21	1561.96	1531.56	62.20%	34.73%	-24.09	1-2
1956-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-20	1537.87	1441.97	52.40%	44.53%	-19.48	1-3
1956-10-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-24	1518.39	1436.55	68.58%	28.35%	-21.68	1-4
1956-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-7	1496.71	1480.17	41.08%	55.84%	+25.78	2-4
1956-11-11	Baltimore Colts	L 7-21	1522.49	1448.94	67.60%	29.33%	-28.26	2-5
1956-11-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-0	1494.23	1480.32	40.72%	56.21%	+25.17	3-5
1956-11-25	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1519.40	1513.20	58.97%	37.95%	-11.43	3-6
1956-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1507.97	1454.21	65.18%	31.75%	+6.24	4-6
1956-12-09	@ New York Giants	W 24-7	1514.21	1587.82	29.32%	67.61%	+31.15	5-6
1956-12-16	Chicago Cardinals	L 7-24	1545.36	1515.42	62.14%	34.79%	-28.64	5-7
1956-09-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-16	1490.97	1496.93	37.99%	58.94%	+13.19	1-0
1956-10-06	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-14	1504.16	1487.68	41.07%	55.85%	+25.78	2-0
1956-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1529.94	1519.75	59.51%	37.41%	+7.33	3-0
1956-10-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1537.27	1442.45	70.08%	26.86%	+5.30	4-0
1956-10-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-7	1542.57	1487.14	46.59%	50.33%	+16.95	5-0
1956-11-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1559.52	1418.38	58.71%	38.22%	+8.64	6-0
1956-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-18	1568.16	1475.07	52.00%	44.93%	-5.83	6-1
1956-11-18	Baltimore Colts	W 27-3	1562.33	1477.20	68.97%	27.97%	+15.60	7-1
1956-11-22	Green Bay Packers	L 20-24	1577.93	1434.98	75.17%	21.77%	-16.80	7-2
1956-12-02	Chicago Bears	W 42-10	1561.13	1617.76	50.16%	46.77%	+29.75	8-2
1956-12-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-7	1590.88	1461.94	73.76%	23.18%	+16.32	9-2
1956-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-38	1607.20	1597.20	40.18%	56.75%	-18.71	9-3
1956-09-30	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1496.93	1490.97	58.94%	37.99%	-13.19	0-1
1956-10-07	Chicago Bears	L 21-37	1483.74	1504.80	55.21%	41.72%	-24.73	0-2
1956-10-14	Baltimore Colts	W 38-33	1459.01	1461.90	57.73%	39.19%	+9.91	1-2
1956-10-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 42-17	1468.92	1512.42	52.04%	44.89%	+25.27	2-2
1956-10-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-28	1494.19	1434.91	47.15%	49.78%	-14.02	2-3
1956-11-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-24	1480.17	1496.71	55.84%	41.08%	-25.78	2-4
1956-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-38	1454.39	1597.74	21.73%	75.21%	-12.17	2-5
1956-11-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-17	1442.22	1391.45	64.81%	32.12%	-7.24	2-6
1956-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1434.98	1577.93	21.77%	75.17%	+16.80	3-6
1956-12-02	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-21	1451.78	1537.98	27.84%	69.09%	+13.37	4-6
1956-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-38	1465.15	1413.05	46.12%	50.81%	-22.02	4-7
1956-12-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-49	1443.13	1446.53	38.33%	58.59%	-22.93	4-8
1956-09-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-7	1510.22	1505.24	58.81%	38.12%	+19.28	1-0
1956-10-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 30-33	1529.50	1449.23	50.16%	46.76%	-9.75	1-1
1956-10-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-24	1519.75	1529.94	37.41%	59.51%	-7.33	1-2
1956-10-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-42	1512.42	1468.92	44.89%	52.04%	-25.28	1-3
1956-10-28	Detroit Lions	L 7-16	1487.14	1542.57	50.33%	46.59%	-16.94	1-4
1956-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 24-35	1470.20	1581.92	42.29%	54.64%	-15.82	1-5
1956-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-6	1454.38	1409.74	64.03%	32.90%	+18.29	2-5
1956-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-30	1472.67	1609.91	22.34%	74.60%	-7.66	2-6
1956-11-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-56	1465.01	1461.60	39.27%	57.66%	-26.25	2-7
1956-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-30	1438.76	1444.19	38.06%	58.87%	-17.75	2-8
1956-12-09	Baltimore Colts	W 31-7	1421.01	1474.44	50.62%	46.31%	+25.52	3-8
1956-12-16	Green Bay Packers	W 49-21	1446.53	1443.13	58.59%	38.33%	+22.94	4-8
1956-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-21	1522.86	1472.87	45.82%	51.11%	+23.65	1-0
1956-10-07	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 27-35	1546.51	1488.36	46.98%	49.94%	-14.95	1-1
1956-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-9	1531.56	1561.96	34.73%	62.20%	+24.09	2-1
1956-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-10	1555.65	1452.16	71.05%	25.89%	+15.61	3-1
1956-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-3	1571.26	1494.53	67.98%	28.95%	+13.58	4-1
1956-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1584.84	1458.22	56.72%	40.21%	+7.87	5-1
1956-11-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 23-10	1592.71	1556.56	62.94%	33.98%	+13.89	6-1
1956-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-33	1606.60	1480.90	56.59%	40.34%	-32.30	6-2
1956-11-25	Chicago Bears	T 17-17	1574.30	1617.57	52.07%	44.85%	-0.19	6-2
1956-12-02	Washington Redskins	W 28-14	1574.11	1524.63	64.65%	32.28%	+13.71	7-2
1956-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-24	1587.82	1514.21	67.61%	29.32%	-31.15	7-3
1956-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-7	1556.67	1443.04	54.90%	42.02%	+17.74	8-3
1956-09-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-27	1505.24	1510.22	38.12%	58.81%	-19.28	0-1
1956-10-06	Washington Redskins	W 13-9	1485.96	1482.69	58.57%	38.35%	+8.67	1-1
1956-10-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-21	1494.63	1475.40	41.46%	55.47%	+23.24	2-1
1956-10-21	Chicago Cardinals	L 6-20	1517.87	1535.35	55.71%	41.21%	-23.34	2-2
1956-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 3-20	1494.53	1571.26	28.95%	67.98%	-13.58	2-3
1956-11-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 17-28	1480.95	1545.07	30.47%	66.46%	-11.48	2-4
1956-11-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-7	1469.47	1450.36	60.71%	36.22%	+10.85	3-4
1956-11-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-16	1480.32	1494.23	56.21%	40.72%	-25.17	3-5
1956-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	T 10-10	1455.15	1398.70	65.52%	31.41%	-0.94	3-5
1956-12-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-17	1454.21	1507.97	31.75%	65.18%	-6.25	3-6
1956-12-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-19	1447.96	1510.91	30.61%	66.32%	-4.92	3-7
1956-12-15	New York Giants	L 7-21	1443.04	1556.67	42.02%	54.90%	-17.73	3-8
1956-09-30	Washington Redskins	W 30-13	1465.98	1503.12	52.94%	43.98%	+20.44	1-0
1956-10-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-14	1486.42	1550.95	49.02%	47.90%	-11.02	1-1
1956-10-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-35	1475.40	1494.63	55.47%	41.46%	-23.24	1-2
1956-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 10-38	1452.16	1555.65	25.89%	71.05%	-15.61	1-3
1956-10-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-16	1436.55	1518.39	28.35%	68.58%	+21.67	2-3
1956-11-04	New York Giants	L 14-17	1458.22	1584.84	40.21%	56.72%	-7.86	2-4
1956-11-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-14	1450.36	1469.47	36.22%	60.71%	-10.85	2-5
1956-11-18	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-7	1439.51	1542.66	43.50%	53.43%	+15.84	3-5
1956-11-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 27-38	1455.35	1526.82	29.58%	67.35%	-11.16	3-6
1956-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-13	1444.19	1438.76	58.87%	38.06%	+17.75	4-6
1956-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-45	1461.94	1590.88	23.18%	73.76%	-16.31	4-7
1956-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-0	1445.63	1515.83	29.73%	67.20%	+36.01	5-7
1956-09-30	New York Giants	L 21-38	1472.87	1522.86	51.11%	45.82%	-23.64	0-1
1956-10-07	Los Angeles Rams	W 33-30	1449.23	1529.50	46.76%	50.16%	+9.76	1-1
1956-10-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-31	1458.99	1529.53	29.69%	67.24%	-16.54	1-2
1956-10-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1442.45	1537.27	26.86%	70.08%	-5.30	1-3
1956-10-28	Chicago Bears	L 21-38	1437.15	1563.16	40.29%	56.63%	-18.77	1-4
1956-11-04	Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1418.38	1559.52	38.22%	58.71%	-8.64	1-5
1956-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-30	1409.74	1454.38	32.90%	64.03%	-18.29	1-6
1956-11-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-16	1391.45	1442.22	32.12%	64.81%	+7.25	2-6
1956-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 10-10	1398.70	1455.15	31.41%	65.52%	+0.93	2-6
1956-12-02	@ Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1399.63	1487.86	27.61%	69.32%	+13.42	3-6
1956-12-08	Green Bay Packers	W 38-20	1413.05	1465.15	50.81%	46.12%	+22.02	4-6
1956-12-16	Baltimore Colts	W 30-17	1435.07	1448.92	56.22%	40.71%	+16.57	5-6
1956-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-30	1503.12	1465.98	43.98%	52.94%	-20.43	0-1
1956-10-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-13	1482.69	1485.96	38.35%	58.57%	-8.67	0-2
1956-10-14	Chicago Cardinals	L 3-31	1474.02	1503.30	54.05%	42.87%	-32.05	0-3
1956-10-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-9	1441.97	1537.87	44.53%	52.40%	+19.48	1-3
1956-10-28	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-14	1461.45	1558.69	26.58%	70.35%	+13.62	2-3
1956-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 18-17	1475.07	1568.16	44.93%	52.00%	+5.83	3-3
1956-11-18	New York Giants	W 33-7	1480.90	1606.60	40.34%	56.59%	+32.30	4-3
1956-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1513.20	1519.40	37.95%	58.97%	+11.43	5-3
1956-12-02	@ New York Giants	L 14-28	1524.63	1574.11	32.28%	64.65%	-13.72	5-4
1956-12-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-17	1510.91	1447.96	66.32%	30.61%	+4.92	6-4
1956-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-23	1515.83	1445.63	67.20%	29.73%	-36.01	6-5
1956-12-23	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-19	1479.82	1432.34	45.46%	51.47%	-7.24	6-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1956-12-30	@ New York Giants	L 7-47	1615.91	1574.41	46.13%	53.87%	-31.78	0-1
1956-12-30	Chicago Bears	W 47-7	1574.41	1615.91	53.87%	46.13%	+31.77	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1956-11-22	21.77%	Green Bay Packers	1434.98	24	@ Detroit Lions	1577.93	20
2	1956-10-28	26.58%	Washington Redskins	1461.45	17	@ Chicago Cardinals	1558.69	14
3	1956-12-02	27.61%	San Francisco 49ers	1399.63	20	@ Baltimore Colts	1487.86	17
4	1956-12-02	27.84%	Green Bay Packers	1451.78	24	@ Chicago Cardinals	1537.98	21
5	1956-10-28	28.35%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1436.55	24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1518.39	16
6	1956-12-09	29.32%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1514.21	24	@ New York Giants	1587.82	7
7	1956-11-11	29.33%	Baltimore Colts	1448.94	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1522.49	7
8	1956-12-16	29.73%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1445.63	23	@ Washington Redskins	1515.83	0
9	1956-11-18	32.12%	San Francisco 49ers	1391.45	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1442.22	16
10	1956-10-14	34.73%	New York Giants	1531.56	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1561.96	9
11	1956-12-16	34.79%	Chicago Cardinals	1515.42	24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1545.36	7
12	1956-11-25	37.95%	Washington Redskins	1513.20	20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1519.40	17
13	1956-09-30	37.99%	Detroit Lions	1490.97	20	@ Green Bay Packers	1496.93	16
14	1956-11-18	40.34%	@ Washington Redskins	1480.90	33	New York Giants	1606.60	7
15	1956-11-18	40.72%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1494.23	16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1480.32	0
16	1956-10-06	41.07%	Detroit Lions	1504.16	31	@ Baltimore Colts	1487.68	14
17	1956-11-04	41.08%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1496.71	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1480.17	7
18	1956-10-21	41.21%	Chicago Cardinals	1535.35	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1517.87	6
19	1956-10-14	41.46%	Philadelphia Eagles	1494.63	35	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1475.40	21
20	1956-10-07	41.72%	Chicago Bears	1504.80	37	@ Green Bay Packers	1483.74	21
21	1956-10-14	42.87%	Chicago Cardinals	1503.30	31	@ Washington Redskins	1474.02	3
22	1956-11-18	43.50%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1439.51	14	Chicago Cardinals	1542.66	7
23	1956-10-21	44.53%	@ Washington Redskins	1441.97	20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1537.87	9
24	1956-11-11	44.93%	@ Washington Redskins	1475.07	18	Detroit Lions	1568.16	17
25	1956-09-30	45.82%	New York Giants	1522.86	38	@ San Francisco 49ers	1472.87	21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1956-12-16	36.01	Pittsburgh Steelers	23	1445.63	29.73%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1515.83	67.20%
2	1956-11-18	32.30	@ Washington Redskins	33	1480.90	40.34%	New York Giants	7	1606.60	56.59%
3	1956-10-14	32.05	Chicago Cardinals	31	1503.30	42.87%	@ Washington Redskins	3	1474.02	54.05%
4	1956-12-30 *	31.78	@ New York Giants	47	1574.41	53.87%	Chicago Bears	7	1615.91	46.13%
5	1956-12-09	31.15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	24	1514.21	29.32%	@ New York Giants	7	1587.82	67.61%
6	1956-12-02	29.75	@ Detroit Lions	42	1561.13	50.16%	Chicago Bears	10	1617.76	46.77%
7	1956-12-16	28.64	Chicago Cardinals	24	1515.42	34.79%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1545.36	62.14%
8	1956-11-11	28.26	Baltimore Colts	21	1448.94	29.33%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1522.49	67.60%
9	1956-11-25	26.26	@ Baltimore Colts	56	1461.60	57.66%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1465.01	39.27%
10	1956-10-06	25.78	Detroit Lions	31	1504.16	41.07%	@ Baltimore Colts	14	1487.68	55.85%
11	1956-11-04	25.78	Cleveland Browns (1st)	24	1496.71	41.08%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1480.17	55.84%
12	1956-12-09	25.52	@ Los Angeles Rams	31	1421.01	50.62%	Baltimore Colts	7	1474.44	46.31%
13	1956-10-21	25.28	@ Green Bay Packers	42	1468.92	52.04%	Los Angeles Rams	17	1512.42	44.89%
14	1956-11-18	25.17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	16	1494.23	40.72%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1480.32	56.21%
15	1956-10-07	24.73	Chicago Bears	37	1504.80	41.72%	@ Green Bay Packers	21	1483.74	55.21%
16	1956-10-14	24.09	New York Giants	21	1531.56	34.73%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	1561.96	62.20%
17	1956-09-30	23.65	New York Giants	38	1522.86	45.82%	@ San Francisco 49ers	21	1472.87	51.11%
18	1956-10-21	23.34	Chicago Cardinals	20	1535.35	41.21%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	6	1517.87	55.71%
19	1956-10-14	23.24	Philadelphia Eagles	35	1494.63	41.46%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	21	1475.40	55.47%
20	1956-12-16	22.94	@ Los Angeles Rams	49	1446.53	58.59%	Green Bay Packers	21	1443.13	38.33%
21	1956-12-08	22.02	@ San Francisco 49ers	38	1413.05	50.81%	Green Bay Packers	20	1465.15	46.12%
22	1956-10-28	21.68	Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1436.55	28.35%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	16	1518.39	68.58%
23	1956-09-30	20.44	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	30	1465.98	52.94%	Washington Redskins	13	1503.12	43.98%
24	1956-10-21	19.48	@ Washington Redskins	20	1441.97	44.53%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	1537.87	52.40%
25	1956-09-30	19.28	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1510.22	58.81%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1505.24	38.12%