1951 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Los Angeles Rams

2nd Title

Last Title: 1945

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1950

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns (1st)

2.52 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.48 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

2.46 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.46 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	11	1	0	.917	—	331	152	+179	8.48	+2.52
2	New York Giants	9	2	1	.792	1.5	254	161	+93	7.74	+1.76
3	Washington Redskins	5	7	0	.417	6	183	296	-113	4.12	+0.88
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	7	1	.375	6.5	183	235	-52	5.38	-0.88
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	8	0	.333	7	234	264	-30	6.46	-2.46
6	Chicago Cardinals	3	9	0	.250	8	210	287	-77	4.35	-1.35

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	8	4	0	.667	—	392	261	+131	7.95	+0.05
2	San Francisco 49ers	7	4	1	.625	0.5	255	205	+50	5.91	+1.59
3	Detroit Lions	7	4	1	.625	0.5	336	259	+77	6.80	+0.70
4	Chicago Bears	7	5	0	.583	1	286	282	+4	7.48	-0.48
5	Green Bay Packers	3	9	0	.250	5	254	375	-121	3.56	-0.56
6	New York Yanks	1	9	2	.167	6	241	382	-141	3.77	-1.77

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Los Angeles Rams 24

Cleveland Browns (1st) 17

Dec 23

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1759	11	8.48	+2.52	99.27%	2	6	7	8	9	11	12
New York Giants	East	1655	9.5	7.74	+1.76	90.74%	2	5	6	7	8	10	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1610	8	7.95	+0.05	70.38%	2	5	7	8	9	10	12
Detroit Lions	West	1560	7.5	6.80	+0.70	72.79%	1	4	5	6	8	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1549	7.5	5.91	+1.59	88.48%	0	3	4	6	7	8	11
Chicago Bears	West	1498	7	7.48	-0.48	58.36%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1490	4	6.46	-2.46	16.36%	1	3	5	6	7	9	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1449	4.5	5.38	-0.88	37.80%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Chicago Cardinals	East	1419	3	4.35	-1.35	38.91%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Washington Redskins	East	1407	5	4.12	+0.88	86.43%	0	1	3	4	5	6	10
New York Yanks	West	1319	2	3.77	-1.77	28.00%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Green Bay Packers	West	1285	3	3.56	-0.56	59.28%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Yanks	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	—	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	—	—

Within West

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Yanks	49ers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Yanks	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Yanks	—	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.08%	1.39%	0.69%	1.39%	—	0.69%	6.25%
7–13	2.08%	4.17%	2.78%	3.47%	2.08%	0.69%	—	15.28%
14–20	1.39%	2.78%	5.56%	4.17%	4.86%	1.39%	2.78%	22.92%
21–27	0.69%	3.47%	4.17%	9.72%	2.78%	2.08%	2.78%	25.69%
28–34	1.39%	2.08%	4.86%	2.78%	1.39%	2.08%	0.69%	15.28%
35–41	—	0.69%	1.39%	2.08%	2.08%	—	0.69%	6.94%
42+	0.69%	—	2.78%	2.78%	0.69%	0.69%	—	7.64%
Total	6.25%	15.28%	22.92%	25.69%	15.28%	6.94%	7.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.94	21.94	+0.00
SD	11.48	11.48	16.10
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	54	54	+45
Min	0	0	-45

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.83	23.50	+0.33
SD	9.09	13.39	16.91
CV	0.38	0.57	—
Max	45	42	+27
Min	13	0	-25

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	25.00%	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	25.00%	—	16.67%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	23.92	-6.42
SD	9.08	13.34	12.04
CV	0.52	0.56	—
Max	28	49	+14
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.58	12.67	+14.92
SD	13.83	10.59	14.63
CV	0.50	0.84	—
Max	49	28	+45
Min	10	0	-14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	25.00%	33.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.00	21.58	+6.42
SD	11.45	7.45	11.95
CV	0.41	0.35	—
Max	52	35	+27
Min	10	10	-10

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—	33.33%	50.00%	—	16.67%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.17	31.25	-10.08
SD	11.80	8.24	12.43
CV	0.56	0.26	—
Max	37	52	+13
Min	0	24	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	41.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	25.00%	16.67%	—	—	—	41.67%
Total	8.33%	—	33.33%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.67	21.75	+10.92
SD	12.62	11.68	20.91
CV	0.39	0.54	—
Max	54	44	+40
Min	17	0	-27

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	41.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.17	13.42	+7.75
SD	11.09	8.85	8.69
CV	0.52	0.66	—
Max	37	31	+21
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	16.67%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	100%

New York Yanks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.08	31.83	-11.75
SD	7.33	12.76	14.01
CV	0.36	0.40	—
Max	31	54	+3
Min	10	10	-40

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	33.33%	41.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	22.00	-2.50
SD	9.13	7.05	12.21
CV	0.47	0.32	—
Max	35	37	+21
Min	7	13	-18

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	25.00%	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	19.58	-4.33
SD	11.75	9.53	15.02
CV	0.77	0.49	—
Max	33	35	+21
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	33.33%	33.33%	33.33%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	17.08	+4.17
SD	9.92	5.85	10.39
CV	0.47	0.34	—
Max	44	27	+27
Min	7	10	-7

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
7–13	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	24.67	-9.42
SD	9.79	12.17	17.35
CV	0.64	0.49	—
Max	31	45	+15
Min	0	3	-45

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	8.48	+2.52
2	New York Giants	9.5	7.74	+1.76
3	San Francisco 49ers	7.5	5.91	+1.59
4	Washington Redskins	5	4.12	+0.88
5	Detroit Lions	7.5	6.80	+0.70

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	4	6.46	-2.46
2	New York Yanks	2	3.77	-1.77
3	Chicago Cardinals	3	4.35	-1.35
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	4.5	5.38	-0.88
5	Green Bay Packers	3	3.56	-0.56

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	Oct 7 – Dec 16	1 in 90
2	Green Bay Packers	2	Oct 7 – Oct 14	1 in 22
3	Washington Redskins	2	Oct 21 – Oct 28	1 in 13
4	Detroit Lions	4	Nov 4 – Nov 22	1 in 12
5	San Francisco 49ers	3	Dec 2 – Dec 16	1 in 10

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Oct 14 – Oct 28	1 in 47
2	Chicago Cardinals	5	Oct 14 – Nov 11	1 in 25
3	Green Bay Packers	7	Nov 4 – Dec 16	1 in 17
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 7 – Oct 21	1 in 12
5	New York Yanks	4	Oct 28 – Nov 18	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.37%	27.45%	12.60%	4.68%	1.61%	0.29%
New York Giants	29.80%	34.97%	20.22%	9.74%	4.03%	1.24%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.17%	21.61%	29.92%	20.70%	11.40%	5.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.05%	10.10%	19.65%	28.81%	23.38%	14.01%
Chicago Cardinals	0.94%	3.44%	9.65%	19.70%	31.25%	35.02%
Washington Redskins	0.67%	2.43%	7.96%	16.37%	28.33%	44.24%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Los Angeles Rams	42.82%	28.58%	17.29%	8.45%	2.38%	0.48%
Chicago Bears	32.42%	30.40%	20.89%	11.53%	3.79%	0.97%
Detroit Lions	16.06%	23.20%	27.39%	22.29%	8.34%	2.72%
San Francisco 49ers	7.94%	14.83%	24.95%	32.12%	14.91%	5.25%
New York Yanks	0.54%	1.84%	4.97%	13.39%	35.12%	44.14%
Green Bay Packers	0.22%	1.15%	4.51%	12.22%	35.46%	46.44%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	34.23%	20.21%	14.80%	11.23%	8.18%	5.12%	3.19%	1.70%	0.82%	0.36%	0.11%	0.05%
Los Angeles Rams	20.55%	19.97%	16.90%	13.29%	10.55%	7.31%	5.27%	3.19%	1.51%	0.84%	0.42%	0.20%
New York Giants	15.94%	17.05%	17.19%	15.47%	11.28%	8.79%	5.96%	3.82%	2.31%	1.30%	0.69%	0.20%
Chicago Bears	13.84%	16.79%	15.02%	15.23%	12.04%	10.04%	6.87%	4.77%	2.55%	1.68%	0.75%	0.42%
Detroit Lions	6.25%	9.86%	11.78%	12.41%	13.39%	13.18%	11.51%	9.26%	5.40%	3.88%	2.07%	1.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.72%	7.40%	9.98%	11.82%	13.77%	13.80%	11.97%	10.46%	7.07%	4.72%	2.93%	1.36%
San Francisco 49ers	2.58%	4.34%	6.69%	8.74%	11.38%	14.00%	14.36%	14.02%	9.60%	7.31%	4.31%	2.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.27%	2.77%	4.24%	5.88%	9.04%	10.80%	13.71%	15.22%	13.38%	10.07%	8.18%	5.44%
Chicago Cardinals	0.26%	0.72%	1.30%	2.53%	3.85%	5.85%	9.43%	11.16%	16.08%	16.54%	17.55%	14.73%
Washington Redskins	0.22%	0.44%	1.04%	1.68%	3.21%	4.68%	7.49%	10.40%	15.00%	16.38%	21.21%	18.25%
New York Yanks	0.10%	0.31%	0.69%	1.05%	1.83%	3.27%	5.48%	8.11%	12.96%	19.07%	21.26%	25.87%
Green Bay Packers	0.04%	0.14%	0.37%	0.67%	1.48%	3.16%	4.76%	7.89%	13.32%	17.85%	20.52%	29.80%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.37%	46.63%
New York Giants	29.80%	70.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.17%	88.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.05%	95.95%
Chicago Cardinals	0.94%	99.06%
Washington Redskins	0.67%	99.33%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	42.82%	57.18%
Chicago Bears	32.42%	67.58%
Detroit Lions	16.06%	83.94%
San Francisco 49ers	7.94%	92.06%
New York Yanks	0.54%	99.46%
Green Bay Packers	0.22%	99.78%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.37%	41.12%
New York Giants	29.80%	18.60%
Los Angeles Rams	42.82%	17.35%
Chicago Bears	32.42%	8.67%
Detroit Lions	16.06%	5.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.17%	4.57%
San Francisco 49ers	7.94%	2.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.05%	1.45%
Chicago Cardinals	0.94%	0.29%
Washington Redskins	0.67%	0.18%
New York Yanks	0.54%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	0.22%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	New York Yanks	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		0.16%	2.97%				2.72%		1.89%	0.86%		0.07%
Chicago Cardinals	0.05%			0.11%		0.11%					0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	13.98%			7.13%	0.10%	16.17%		0.36%			3.38%
Detroit Lions		0.18%	1.94%				1.70%		0.81%	0.43%		0.05%
Green Bay Packers			0.02%				0.01%
Los Angeles Rams		0.25%	6.28%				5.99%		3.40%	1.18%		0.25%
New York Giants	6.88%			2.90%	0.06%	7.06%		0.10%			1.60%
New York Yanks			0.02%						0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.04%			0.62%	0.01%	1.59%		0.02%			0.29%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.73%			0.18%	0.01%	0.45%		0.01%			0.07%
San Francisco 49ers		0.06%	1.02%				0.78%		0.49%	0.12%		0.11%
Washington Redskins	0.07%			0.01%	0.01%	0.09%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	70.03%
Los Angeles Rams	29.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Rams
Cleveland Browns (1st)		70.03%
Los Angeles Rams	29.97%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns (1st) 70.03% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.03%

Los Angeles Rams 29.97% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.97%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1951-09-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-20	1553.52	1348.22	72.80%	21.38%	+11.97	1-0
1951-10-07	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 14-28	1565.49	1464.19	61.01%	33.12%	-36.91	1-1
1951-10-14	New York Yanks	W 24-21	1528.58	1383.77	66.33%	27.82%	+8.06	2-1
1951-10-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 13-7	1536.64	1483.24	54.61%	39.50%	+15.96	3-1
1951-10-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-23	1552.60	1519.85	51.73%	42.38%	+15.57	4-1
1951-11-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-0	1568.17	1402.47	68.69%	25.46%	+22.21	5-1
1951-11-11	Detroit Lions	L 28-41	1590.38	1518.04	57.20%	36.92%	-33.40	5-2
1951-11-18	Green Bay Packers	W 24-13	1556.98	1345.77	73.37%	20.81%	+11.66	6-2
1951-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-42	1568.64	1703.18	29.02%	65.12%	-22.22	6-3
1951-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-42	1546.42	1574.60	43.03%	51.08%	-35.32	6-4
1951-12-09	@ New York Yanks	W 45-21	1511.10	1347.11	68.50%	25.65%	+21.09	7-4
1951-12-16	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-24	1532.19	1385.14	66.59%	27.56%	-34.01	7-5
1951-09-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1473.35	1585.34	31.77%	62.36%	-9.16	0-1
1951-10-07	Chicago Bears	W 28-14	1464.19	1565.49	33.12%	61.01%	+36.90	1-1
1951-10-14	@ New York Giants	L 17-28	1501.09	1572.22	37.08%	57.03%	-20.34	1-2
1951-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-7	1480.75	1359.48	63.51%	30.62%	-20.52	1-3
1951-10-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-28	1460.23	1443.38	49.47%	44.64%	-30.15	1-4
1951-11-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-34	1430.08	1661.18	18.99%	75.21%	-13.25	1-5
1951-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-45	1416.83	1574.76	26.32%	67.83%	-21.63	1-6
1951-11-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-21	1395.20	1514.93	30.81%	63.32%	+25.07	2-6
1951-11-25	New York Giants	L 0-10	1420.27	1596.68	24.31%	69.85%	-12.93	2-7
1951-12-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-49	1407.34	1725.40	12.45%	81.82%	-9.72	2-8
1951-12-09	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1397.62	1419.33	43.94%	50.16%	-12.48	2-9
1951-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1385.14	1532.19	27.56%	66.59%	+34.01	3-9
1951-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-24	1628.28	1438.36	71.26%	22.91%	-43.07	0-1
1951-10-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-23	1585.21	1606.89	43.95%	50.16%	+31.62	1-1
1951-10-14	Washington Redskins	W 45-0	1616.83	1380.54	75.66%	18.54%	+21.05	2-1
1951-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-0	1637.88	1460.14	69.99%	24.17%	+16.76	3-1
1951-10-28	New York Giants	W 14-13	1654.64	1602.52	54.44%	39.68%	+6.54	4-1
1951-11-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-17	1661.18	1430.08	75.21%	18.99%	+13.25	5-1
1951-11-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1674.43	1560.36	62.62%	31.51%	+9.09	6-1
1951-11-18	@ New York Giants	W 10-0	1683.52	1616.34	56.50%	37.62%	+19.66	7-1
1951-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 42-21	1703.18	1568.64	65.12%	29.02%	+22.22	8-1
1951-12-02	Chicago Cardinals	W 49-28	1725.40	1407.34	81.82%	12.45%	+9.73	9-1
1951-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-0	1735.13	1436.28	80.55%	13.70%	+12.35	10-1
1951-12-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-9	1747.48	1501.84	76.47%	17.74%	+11.65	11-1
1951-09-30	Washington Redskins	W 35-17	1481.29	1429.19	54.43%	39.68%	+27.75	1-0
1951-10-08	New York Yanks	W 37-10	1509.04	1412.93	60.34%	33.79%	+29.16	2-0
1951-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1538.20	1575.28	41.77%	52.34%	-16.82	2-1
1951-10-21	New York Yanks	T 24-24	1521.38	1375.71	66.43%	27.72%	-1.53	2-1
1951-10-28	Chicago Bears	L 23-28	1519.85	1552.60	42.38%	51.73%	-15.56	2-2
1951-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1504.29	1387.73	62.93%	31.20%	+13.75	3-2
1951-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-28	1518.04	1590.38	36.92%	57.20%	+33.40	4-2
1951-11-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-10	1551.44	1551.27	47.08%	47.03%	+32.59	5-2
1951-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 52-35	1584.03	1334.11	76.83%	17.38%	+12.15	6-2
1951-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-20	1596.18	1488.23	61.85%	32.28%	-31.62	6-3
1951-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-22	1564.56	1609.92	40.61%	53.50%	+12.28	7-3
1951-12-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-21	1576.84	1532.05	53.42%	40.69%	-17.34	7-4
1951-09-30	Chicago Bears	L 20-31	1348.22	1553.52	21.38%	72.80%	-11.97	0-1
1951-10-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-33	1336.25	1491.30	26.65%	67.50%	+15.42	1-1
1951-10-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-24	1351.67	1608.44	16.82%	77.39%	+45.13	2-1
1951-10-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-28	1396.80	1592.10	22.36%	71.81%	-19.95	2-2
1951-10-28	@ New York Yanks	W 29-27	1376.85	1377.23	47.00%	47.11%	+10.88	3-2
1951-11-04	Detroit Lions	L 17-24	1387.73	1504.29	31.20%	62.93%	-13.75	3-3
1951-11-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-28	1373.98	1444.08	37.22%	56.89%	-28.21	3-4
1951-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-24	1345.77	1556.98	20.81%	73.37%	-11.66	3-5
1951-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 35-52	1334.11	1584.03	17.38%	76.83%	-12.15	3-6
1951-12-02	New York Yanks	L 28-31	1321.96	1334.27	45.29%	48.82%	-12.84	3-7
1951-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-31	1309.12	1519.85	20.86%	73.32%	-12.20	3-8
1951-12-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-42	1296.92	1597.64	13.58%	80.68%	-12.24	3-9
1951-09-28	New York Yanks	W 54-14	1575.92	1443.91	64.82%	29.32%	+30.97	1-0
1951-10-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-38	1606.89	1585.21	50.16%	43.95%	-31.61	1-1
1951-10-14	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-21	1575.28	1538.20	52.34%	41.77%	+16.82	2-1
1951-10-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-0	1592.10	1396.80	71.81%	22.36%	+19.94	3-1
1951-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-44	1612.04	1467.29	66.32%	27.82%	-55.67	3-2
1951-11-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-16	1556.37	1522.96	51.82%	42.29%	+18.39	4-2
1951-11-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 45-21	1574.76	1416.83	67.83%	26.32%	+21.62	5-2
1951-11-18	New York Yanks	W 48-21	1596.38	1348.07	76.69%	17.51%	+15.43	6-2
1951-11-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-31	1611.81	1406.27	72.82%	21.36%	-37.21	6-3
1951-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 42-17	1574.60	1546.42	51.08%	43.03%	+35.32	7-3
1951-12-09	Detroit Lions	L 22-24	1609.92	1564.56	53.50%	40.61%	-12.28	7-4
1951-12-16	Green Bay Packers	W 42-14	1597.64	1296.92	80.68%	13.58%	+12.23	8-4
1951-10-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 13-13	1551.99	1490.63	55.71%	38.41%	-0.67	0-0
1951-10-07	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-14	1551.32	1401.44	66.91%	27.23%	+20.90	1-0
1951-10-14	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-17	1572.22	1501.09	57.03%	37.08%	+20.34	2-0
1951-10-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-24	1592.56	1563.32	51.23%	42.88%	+9.96	3-0
1951-10-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-14	1602.52	1654.64	39.68%	54.44%	-6.54	3-1
1951-11-04	New York Yanks	W 37-31	1595.98	1366.35	75.07%	19.12%	+7.92	4-1
1951-11-11	Washington Redskins	W 28-14	1603.90	1380.26	74.53%	19.66%	+12.44	5-1
1951-11-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-10	1616.34	1683.52	37.62%	56.50%	-19.66	5-2
1951-11-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 10-0	1596.68	1420.27	69.85%	24.31%	+12.92	6-2
1951-12-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-0	1609.60	1452.88	67.69%	26.46%	+16.60	7-2
1951-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-7	1626.20	1523.77	61.15%	32.98%	+21.93	8-2
1951-12-16	@ New York Yanks	W 27-17	1648.13	1326.02	82.08%	12.20%	+6.58	9-2
1951-09-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-54	1443.91	1575.92	29.32%	64.82%	-30.98	0-1
1951-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-37	1412.93	1509.04	33.79%	60.34%	-29.16	0-2
1951-10-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-24	1383.77	1528.58	27.82%	66.33%	-8.06	0-3
1951-10-21	@ Detroit Lions	T 24-24	1375.71	1521.38	27.72%	66.43%	+1.52	0-3
1951-10-28	Green Bay Packers	L 27-29	1377.23	1376.85	47.11%	47.00%	-10.88	0-4
1951-11-04	@ New York Giants	L 31-37	1366.35	1595.98	19.12%	75.07%	-7.92	0-5
1951-11-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-19	1358.43	1504.57	27.66%	66.48%	-10.36	0-6
1951-11-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-48	1348.07	1596.38	17.51%	76.69%	-15.43	0-7
1951-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	T 10-10	1332.64	1489.86	26.40%	67.75%	+1.63	0-7
1951-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-28	1334.27	1321.96	48.82%	45.29%	+12.84	1-7
1951-12-09	Chicago Bears	L 21-45	1347.11	1511.10	25.65%	68.50%	-21.09	1-8
1951-12-16	New York Giants	L 17-27	1326.02	1648.13	12.20%	82.08%	-6.58	1-9
1951-09-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-14	1585.34	1473.35	62.36%	31.77%	+9.16	1-0
1951-10-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-14	1594.50	1481.44	62.49%	31.63%	+13.94	2-0
1951-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-37	1608.44	1351.67	77.39%	16.82%	-45.12	2-1
1951-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 24-26	1563.32	1592.56	42.88%	51.23%	-9.96	2-2
1951-10-28	Washington Redskins	L 23-27	1553.36	1380.01	69.52%	24.64%	-22.46	2-3
1951-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-13	1530.90	1473.53	55.16%	38.95%	+29.46	3-3
1951-11-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1560.36	1674.43	31.51%	62.62%	-9.09	3-4
1951-11-18	Detroit Lions	L 10-28	1551.27	1551.44	47.03%	47.08%	-32.59	3-5
1951-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1518.68	1433.83	58.86%	35.25%	-19.05	3-6
1951-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-21	1499.63	1443.48	54.99%	39.12%	+24.14	4-6
1951-12-09	New York Giants	L 7-23	1523.77	1626.20	32.98%	61.15%	-21.93	4-7
1951-12-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-24	1501.84	1747.48	17.74%	76.47%	-11.64	4-8
1951-10-01	New York Giants	T 13-13	1490.63	1551.99	38.41%	55.71%	+0.67	0-0
1951-10-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 33-35	1491.30	1336.25	67.50%	26.65%	-15.42	0-1
1951-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-28	1475.88	1467.50	48.26%	45.85%	-15.74	0-2
1951-10-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-17	1460.14	1637.88	24.17%	69.99%	-16.76	0-3
1951-10-28	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-14	1443.38	1460.23	44.64%	49.47%	+30.15	1-3
1951-11-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-34	1473.53	1530.90	38.95%	55.16%	-29.45	1-4
1951-11-11	Green Bay Packers	W 28-7	1444.08	1373.98	56.89%	37.22%	+28.20	2-4
1951-11-18	Washington Redskins	L 7-22	1472.28	1367.82	61.41%	32.72%	-38.45	2-5
1951-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-13	1433.83	1518.68	35.25%	58.86%	+19.05	3-5
1951-12-02	@ New York Giants	L 0-14	1452.88	1609.60	26.46%	67.69%	-16.60	3-6
1951-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-28	1436.28	1735.13	13.70%	80.55%	-12.35	3-7
1951-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-10	1423.93	1431.81	45.92%	48.19%	+24.86	4-7
1951-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-10	1438.36	1628.28	22.91%	71.26%	+43.08	1-0
1951-10-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-21	1481.44	1594.50	31.63%	62.49%	-13.94	1-1
1951-10-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-24	1467.50	1475.88	45.85%	48.26%	+15.74	2-1
1951-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-13	1483.24	1536.64	39.50%	54.61%	-15.95	2-2
1951-10-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 44-17	1467.29	1612.04	27.82%	66.32%	+55.67	3-2
1951-11-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-23	1522.96	1556.37	42.29%	51.82%	-18.39	3-3
1951-11-11	New York Yanks	W 19-14	1504.57	1358.43	66.48%	27.66%	+10.36	4-3
1951-11-18	Chicago Cardinals	L 21-27	1514.93	1395.20	63.32%	30.81%	-25.07	4-4
1951-11-25	@ New York Yanks	T 10-10	1489.86	1332.64	67.75%	26.40%	-1.63	4-4
1951-12-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-10	1488.23	1596.18	32.28%	61.85%	+31.62	5-4
1951-12-09	Green Bay Packers	W 31-19	1519.85	1309.12	73.32%	20.86%	+12.20	6-4
1951-12-16	Detroit Lions	W 21-17	1532.05	1576.84	40.69%	53.42%	+17.34	7-4
1951-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-35	1429.19	1481.29	39.68%	54.43%	-27.75	0-1
1951-10-07	New York Giants	L 14-35	1401.44	1551.32	27.23%	66.91%	-20.90	0-2
1951-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-45	1380.54	1616.83	18.54%	75.66%	-21.06	0-3
1951-10-21	Chicago Cardinals	W 7-3	1359.48	1480.75	30.62%	63.51%	+20.53	1-3
1951-10-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-23	1380.01	1553.36	24.64%	69.52%	+22.46	2-3
1951-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 0-27	1402.47	1568.17	25.46%	68.69%	-22.21	2-4
1951-11-11	@ New York Giants	L 14-28	1380.26	1603.90	19.66%	74.53%	-12.44	2-5
1951-11-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 22-7	1367.82	1472.28	32.72%	61.41%	+38.45	3-5
1951-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-21	1406.27	1611.81	21.36%	72.82%	+37.21	4-5
1951-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-35	1443.48	1499.63	39.12%	54.99%	-24.15	4-6
1951-12-09	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 20-17	1419.33	1397.62	50.16%	43.94%	+12.48	5-6
1951-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-20	1431.81	1423.93	48.19%	45.92%	-24.85	5-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1951-12-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-24	1759.13	1609.87	70.25%	29.75%	-28.57	0-1
1951-12-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-17	1609.87	1759.13	29.75%	70.25%	+28.57	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1951-10-14	16.82%	@ Green Bay Packers	1351.67	37	Philadelphia Eagles	1608.44	24
2	1951-11-25	21.36%	@ Washington Redskins	1406.27	31	Los Angeles Rams	1611.81	21
3	1951-09-30	22.91%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1438.36	24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1628.28	10
4	1951-10-28	24.64%	Washington Redskins	1380.01	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1553.36	23
5	1951-10-07	26.65%	@ Green Bay Packers	1336.25	35	Pittsburgh Steelers	1491.30	33
6	1951-12-16	27.56%	Chicago Cardinals	1385.14	24	@ Chicago Bears	1532.19	14
7	1951-10-28	27.82%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1467.29	44	Los Angeles Rams	1612.04	17
8	1951-12-23 *	29.75%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1609.87	24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1759.13	17
9	1951-10-21	30.62%	@ Washington Redskins	1359.48	7	Chicago Cardinals	1480.75	3
10	1951-11-18	30.81%	Chicago Cardinals	1395.20	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1514.93	21
11	1951-12-02	32.28%	San Francisco 49ers	1488.23	20	@ Detroit Lions	1596.18	10
12	1951-11-18	32.72%	Washington Redskins	1367.82	22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1472.28	7
13	1951-10-07	33.12%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1464.19	28	Chicago Bears	1565.49	14
14	1951-11-25	35.25%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1433.83	17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1518.68	13
15	1951-11-11	36.92%	Detroit Lions	1518.04	41	@ Chicago Bears	1590.38	28
16	1951-12-09	40.61%	Detroit Lions	1564.56	24	@ Los Angeles Rams	1609.92	22
17	1951-12-16	40.69%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1532.05	21	Detroit Lions	1576.84	17
18	1951-10-07	43.95%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1585.21	38	@ Los Angeles Rams	1606.89	23
19	1951-10-28	44.64%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1443.38	28	@ Chicago Cardinals	1460.23	14
20	1951-10-14	45.85%	San Francisco 49ers	1467.50	28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1475.88	24
21	1951-12-16	45.92%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1423.93	20	@ Washington Redskins	1431.81	10
22	1951-10-28	47.00%	Green Bay Packers	1376.85	29	@ New York Yanks	1377.23	27

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1951-10-28	55.67	@ San Francisco 49ers	44	1467.29	27.82%	Los Angeles Rams	17	1612.04	66.32%
2	1951-10-14	45.13	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1351.67	16.82%	Philadelphia Eagles	24	1608.44	77.39%
3	1951-09-30	43.08	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1438.36	22.91%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1628.28	71.26%
4	1951-11-18	38.45	Washington Redskins	22	1367.82	32.72%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1472.28	61.41%
5	1951-11-25	37.21	@ Washington Redskins	31	1406.27	21.36%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1611.81	72.82%
6	1951-10-07	36.91	@ Chicago Cardinals	28	1464.19	33.12%	Chicago Bears	14	1565.49	61.01%
7	1951-12-02	35.32	Los Angeles Rams	42	1574.60	51.08%	@ Chicago Bears	17	1546.42	43.03%
8	1951-12-16	34.01	Chicago Cardinals	24	1385.14	27.56%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1532.19	66.59%
9	1951-11-11	33.40	Detroit Lions	41	1518.04	36.92%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1590.38	57.20%
10	1951-11-18	32.59	Detroit Lions	28	1551.44	47.08%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1551.27	47.03%
11	1951-12-02	31.62	San Francisco 49ers	20	1488.23	32.28%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1596.18	61.85%
12	1951-10-07	31.62	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1585.21	43.95%	@ Los Angeles Rams	23	1606.89	50.16%
13	1951-09-28	30.98	@ Los Angeles Rams	54	1575.92	64.82%	New York Yanks	14	1443.91	29.32%
14	1951-10-28	30.15	Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1443.38	44.64%	@ Chicago Cardinals	14	1460.23	49.47%
15	1951-11-04	29.46	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1530.90	55.16%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1473.53	38.95%
16	1951-10-08	29.16	@ Detroit Lions	37	1509.04	60.34%	New York Yanks	10	1412.93	33.79%
17	1951-12-23 *	28.57	@ Los Angeles Rams	24	1609.87	29.75%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	17	1759.13	70.25%
18	1951-11-11	28.21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1444.08	56.89%	Green Bay Packers	7	1373.98	37.22%
19	1951-09-30	27.75	@ Detroit Lions	35	1481.29	54.43%	Washington Redskins	17	1429.19	39.68%
20	1951-11-18	25.07	Chicago Cardinals	27	1395.20	30.81%	@ San Francisco 49ers	21	1514.93	63.32%
21	1951-12-16	24.86	Pittsburgh Steelers	20	1423.93	45.92%	@ Washington Redskins	10	1431.81	48.19%
22	1951-12-02	24.15	Philadelphia Eagles	35	1499.63	54.99%	@ Washington Redskins	21	1443.48	39.12%
23	1951-10-28	22.46	Washington Redskins	27	1380.01	24.64%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	23	1553.36	69.52%
24	1951-11-25	22.22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	42	1703.18	65.12%	Chicago Bears	21	1568.64	29.02%
25	1951-11-04	22.21	Chicago Bears	27	1568.17	68.69%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1402.47	25.46%