1949 NFL Season

60 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

2nd Title

Last Title: 1948

Runner-Up

Los Angeles Rams

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1945

Biggest Overachiever

Philadelphia Eagles

2.26 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.74 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Bulldogs

1.90 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.40 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	11	1	0	.917	—	364	134	+230	8.74	+2.26
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5	1	.542	4.5	224	214	+10	5.84	+0.66
3	New York Giants	6	6	0	.500	5	287	298	-11	5.43	+0.57
4	Washington Redskins	4	7	1	.375	6.5	268	339	-71	5.54	-1.04
5	New York Bulldogs	1	10	1	.125	9.5	153	368	-215	3.40	-1.90

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	8	2	2	.750	—	360	239	+121	7.77	+1.23
2	Chicago Bears	9	3	0	.750	—	332	218	+114	8.25	+0.75
3	Chicago Cardinals	6	5	1	.542	2.5	360	301	+59	7.30	-0.80
4	Detroit Lions	4	8	0	.333	5	237	259	-22	4.16	-0.16
5	Green Bay Packers	2	10	0	.167	7	114	329	-215	3.58	-1.58

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Philadelphia Eagles 14

Los Angeles Rams 0

Dec 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1774	11	8.74	+2.26	98.93%	2	6	7	8	9	11	12
Chicago Bears	West	1720	9	8.25	+0.75	85.49%	1	5	7	8	9	10	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1637	9	7.77	+1.23	91.47%	1	5	6	7	8	10	12
Chicago Cardinals	West	1575	6.5	7.30	-0.80	40.00%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1476	6.5	5.84	+0.66	74.57%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
New York Giants	East	1453	6	5.43	+0.57	82.66%	0	2	4	5	6	8	10
Washington Redskins	East	1434	4.5	5.54	-1.04	35.35%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1420	4	4.16	-0.16	70.07%	0	1	3	4	5	6	9
New York Bulldogs	East	1258	1.5	3.40	-1.90	14.99%	0	1	2	3	4	5	9
Green Bay Packers	West	1254	2	3.58	-1.58	34.09%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Bulldogs	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
New York Bulldogs	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
New York Bulldogs	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bulldogs	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.83%	2.50%	2.50%	1.67%	—	0.83%	8.33%
7–13	0.83%	1.67%	1.67%	4.17%	3.33%	2.50%	0.83%	15.00%
14–20	2.50%	1.67%	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	3.33%	3.33%	19.17%
21–27	2.50%	4.17%	3.33%	5.00%	4.17%	1.67%	3.33%	24.17%
28–34	1.67%	3.33%	1.67%	4.17%	1.67%	0.83%	—	13.33%
35–41	—	2.50%	3.33%	1.67%	0.83%	1.67%	0.83%	10.83%
42+	0.83%	0.83%	3.33%	3.33%	—	0.83%	—	9.17%
Total	8.33%	15.00%	19.17%	24.17%	13.33%	10.83%	9.17%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.49	22.49	+0.00
SD	13.42	13.42	20.25
CV	0.60	0.60	—
Max	65	65	+45
Min	0	0	-45

Games Played: 60

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	—	50.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.67	18.17	+9.50
SD	10.03	11.29	13.18
CV	0.36	0.62	—
Max	52	35	+31
Min	16	0	-15

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
42+	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	8.33%	33.33%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.00	25.08	+4.92
SD	18.02	11.82	23.57
CV	0.60	0.47	—
Max	65	52	+45
Min	3	7	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	50.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	21.58	-1.83
SD	10.65	9.82	14.29
CV	0.54	0.46	—
Max	45	42	+24
Min	7	7	-23

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	—	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.50	27.42	-17.92
SD	7.19	13.19	15.42
CV	0.76	0.48	—
Max	21	48	+19
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	—	33.33%	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.00	19.92	+10.08
SD	13.21	10.50	17.48
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	53	38	+41
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	16.67%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	100%

New York Bulldogs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.75	30.67	-17.92
SD	10.86	15.45	16.19
CV	0.85	0.50	—
Max	31	65	+7
Min	0	7	-45

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.92	24.83	-0.92
SD	14.50	11.57	16.78
CV	0.61	0.47	—
Max	45	45	+24
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	41.67%	8.33%	33.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.33	11.17	+19.17
SD	12.53	11.04	15.37
CV	0.41	0.99	—
Max	49	38	+42
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	41.67%	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.67	17.83	+0.83
SD	7.77	12.78	17.95
CV	0.42	0.72	—
Max	30	38	+27
Min	7	0	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	41.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	—	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.33	28.25	-5.92
SD	10.19	17.35	21.83
CV	0.46	0.61	—
Max	38	53	+30
Min	7	0	-35

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	11	8.74	+2.26
2	Los Angeles Rams	9	7.77	+1.23
3	Chicago Bears	9	8.25	+0.75
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6.5	5.84	+0.66
5	New York Giants	6	5.43	+0.57

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Bulldogs	1.5	3.40	-1.90
2	Green Bay Packers	2	3.58	-1.58
3	Washington Redskins	4.5	5.54	-1.04
4	Chicago Cardinals	6.5	7.30	-0.80
5	Detroit Lions	4	4.16	-0.16

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Rams	6	Sep 23 – Oct 30	1 in 24
2	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Oct 23 – Dec 11	1 in 14
3	Chicago Bears	6	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 7
4	New York Giants	2	Sep 30 – Oct 9	1 in 6
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 8 – Oct 23	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Bulldogs	5	Sep 22 – Oct 23	1 in 14
2	Chicago Bears	2	Oct 23 – Oct 30	1 in 11
3	Green Bay Packers	6	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 10
4	Washington Redskins	3	Nov 13 – Nov 27	1 in 4
5	Detroit Lions	4	Sep 23 – Oct 16	1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	79.57%	14.32%	4.69%	1.28%	0.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.74%	31.72%	27.45%	22.96%	9.13%
Washington Redskins	5.90%	25.64%	28.60%	27.00%	12.86%
New York Giants	5.40%	24.64%	29.78%	27.28%	12.90%
New York Bulldogs	0.39%	3.68%	9.48%	21.48%	64.97%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	45.21%	31.40%	19.59%	3.45%	0.35%
Los Angeles Rams	32.06%	33.89%	27.65%	5.41%	0.99%
Chicago Cardinals	21.99%	30.67%	36.12%	9.17%	2.05%
Detroit Lions	0.55%	2.68%	10.24%	47.43%	39.10%
Green Bay Packers	0.19%	1.36%	6.40%	34.54%	57.51%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Philadelphia Eagles	38.69%	29.66%	14.04%	8.81%	4.55%	2.78%	0.97%	0.38%	0.10%	0.02%
Chicago Bears	27.16%	23.12%	20.99%	12.49%	8.75%	4.39%	1.95%	0.85%	0.27%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	17.70%	19.91%	21.69%	15.86%	12.48%	6.76%	3.34%	1.55%	0.57%	0.14%
Chicago Cardinals	11.81%	15.02%	19.63%	17.39%	16.20%	9.86%	5.22%	3.03%	1.43%	0.41%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.10%	4.81%	8.12%	15.81%	15.99%	17.78%	14.32%	11.30%	6.41%	3.36%
Washington Redskins	1.34%	3.67%	7.05%	11.72%	14.35%	18.23%	16.90%	13.67%	8.63%	4.44%
New York Giants	1.01%	3.11%	5.57%	12.11%	14.92%	18.96%	16.50%	13.67%	9.11%	5.04%
Detroit Lions	0.15%	0.46%	1.65%	2.78%	6.18%	8.81%	17.17%	22.21%	22.17%	18.42%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	0.14%	0.74%	1.55%	3.46%	6.11%	13.02%	18.12%	25.03%	31.81%
New York Bulldogs	0.02%	0.10%	0.52%	1.48%	3.12%	6.32%	10.61%	15.22%	26.28%	36.33%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	79.57%	20.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.74%	91.26%
Washington Redskins	5.90%	94.10%
New York Giants	5.40%	94.60%
New York Bulldogs	0.39%	99.61%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	45.21%	54.79%
Los Angeles Rams	32.06%	67.94%
Chicago Cardinals	21.99%	78.01%
Detroit Lions	0.55%	99.45%
Green Bay Packers	0.19%	99.81%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	79.57%	50.98%
Chicago Bears	45.21%	23.31%
Los Angeles Rams	32.06%	13.59%
Chicago Cardinals	21.99%	6.99%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.74%	2.22%
Washington Redskins	5.90%	1.37%
New York Giants	5.40%	1.35%
Detroit Lions	0.55%	0.12%
New York Bulldogs	0.39%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers	0.19%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Bulldogs	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears						0.22%	1.84%	15.77%	3.17%	2.31%
Chicago Cardinals						0.05%	0.63%	4.07%	1.35%	0.89%
Detroit Lions							0.01%	0.07%		0.04%
Green Bay Packers								0.02%		0.01%
Los Angeles Rams						0.08%	1.57%	8.66%	2.00%	1.28%
New York Bulldogs	0.01%				0.03%
New York Giants	0.45%	0.43%	0.02%		0.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.34%	13.32%	0.33%	0.14%	16.85%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.64%	0.78%	0.04%		0.76%
Washington Redskins	0.46%	0.47%	0.04%	0.02%	0.38%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	56.75%
Chicago Bears	43.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears		43.25%
Philadelphia Eagles	56.75%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Philadelphia Eagles 56.75% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.75%

Chicago Bears 43.25% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.25%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1949-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-0	1651.06	1394.47	76.24%	17.01%	+11.81	1-0
1949-10-02	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-7	1662.87	1638.81	49.16%	43.92%	+22.49	2-0
1949-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-31	1685.36	1584.87	61.09%	32.03%	-37.69	2-1
1949-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-21	1647.67	1670.99	44.03%	49.05%	+32.50	3-1
1949-10-23	@ New York Giants	L 28-35	1680.17	1452.23	73.75%	19.46%	-31.06	3-2
1949-10-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1649.11	1645.82	46.18%	46.90%	-12.91	3-3
1949-11-06	Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1636.20	1369.29	77.98%	15.31%	+11.85	4-3
1949-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1648.05	1364.44	79.20%	14.11%	+4.13	5-3
1949-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-21	1652.18	1473.03	68.92%	24.24%	+12.79	6-3
1949-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1664.97	1410.91	76.03%	17.22%	+13.29	7-3
1949-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-21	1678.26	1465.13	73.46%	19.76%	+9.95	8-3
1949-12-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 52-21	1688.21	1605.99	58.74%	34.36%	+31.42	9-3
1949-09-26	Washington Redskins	W 38-7	1611.54	1491.43	63.51%	29.61%	+27.27	1-0
1949-10-02	Chicago Bears	L 7-17	1638.81	1662.87	43.92%	49.16%	-22.48	1-1
1949-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-28	1616.33	1636.23	42.87%	50.21%	-34.76	1-2
1949-10-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 39-17	1581.57	1389.73	70.25%	22.93%	+17.97	2-2
1949-10-23	Detroit Lions	L 7-24	1599.54	1347.81	76.79%	16.48%	-50.43	2-3
1949-10-30	New York Giants	L 38-41	1549.11	1483.29	56.57%	36.53%	-15.65	2-4
1949-11-06	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-19	1533.46	1386.57	65.32%	27.82%	+22.13	3-4
1949-11-13	@ New York Bulldogs	W 65-20	1555.59	1321.78	74.28%	18.94%	+21.36	4-4
1949-11-20	Los Angeles Rams	T 28-28	1576.95	1623.97	40.69%	52.40%	+0.44	4-4
1949-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 41-21	1577.39	1308.89	78.10%	15.19%	+11.47	5-4
1949-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1588.86	1632.42	39.56%	53.53%	+17.13	6-4
1949-12-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-52	1605.99	1688.21	34.36%	58.74%	-31.42	6-5
1949-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1387.11	1551.54	24.58%	68.58%	-7.10	0-1
1949-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-22	1380.01	1627.78	17.74%	75.50%	-8.44	0-2
1949-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1371.57	1459.22	33.66%	59.45%	-14.64	0-3
1949-10-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-21	1356.93	1622.56	16.29%	76.98%	-9.12	0-4
1949-10-23	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-7	1347.81	1599.54	16.48%	76.79%	+50.44	1-4
1949-10-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1398.25	1357.62	51.51%	41.58%	-11.68	1-5
1949-11-06	Chicago Cardinals	L 19-42	1386.57	1533.46	27.82%	65.32%	-22.13	1-6
1949-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1364.44	1648.05	14.11%	79.20%	-4.13	1-7
1949-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 45-21	1360.31	1491.92	28.25%	64.89%	+50.60	2-7
1949-11-24	Chicago Bears	L 7-28	1410.91	1664.97	17.22%	76.03%	-13.30	2-8
1949-12-04	New York Bulldogs	W 28-27	1397.61	1284.45	62.67%	30.46%	+5.04	3-8
1949-12-11	Green Bay Packers	W 21-7	1402.65	1271.78	64.80%	28.34%	+17.57	4-8
1949-09-25	Chicago Bears	L 0-17	1394.47	1651.06	17.01%	76.24%	-11.82	0-1
1949-10-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-48	1382.65	1558.64	24.58%	68.58%	-26.24	0-2
1949-10-07	@ New York Bulldogs	W 19-0	1356.41	1357.03	45.62%	47.46%	+33.32	1-2
1949-10-16	Chicago Cardinals	L 17-39	1389.73	1581.57	22.93%	70.25%	-17.97	1-3
1949-10-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-35	1371.76	1631.67	15.84%	77.44%	-14.14	1-4
1949-10-30	Detroit Lions	W 16-14	1357.62	1398.25	41.58%	51.51%	+11.67	2-4
1949-11-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-24	1369.29	1636.20	15.31%	77.98%	-11.84	2-5
1949-11-13	New York Giants	L 10-30	1357.45	1468.20	32.19%	60.92%	-23.73	2-6
1949-11-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-30	1333.72	1450.90	31.39%	61.73%	-24.83	2-7
1949-11-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 21-41	1308.89	1577.39	15.19%	78.10%	-11.47	2-8
1949-12-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-30	1297.42	1429.09	28.24%	64.89%	-25.64	2-9
1949-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-21	1271.78	1402.65	28.34%	64.80%	-17.58	2-10
1949-09-23	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1551.54	1387.11	68.58%	24.58%	+7.10	1-0
1949-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 48-7	1558.64	1382.65	68.58%	24.58%	+26.23	2-0
1949-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-16	1584.87	1685.36	32.03%	61.09%	+37.69	3-0
1949-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-10	1622.56	1356.93	76.98%	16.29%	+9.11	4-0
1949-10-23	Green Bay Packers	W 35-7	1631.67	1371.76	77.44%	15.84%	+14.15	5-0
1949-10-30	Chicago Bears	W 27-24	1645.82	1649.11	46.90%	46.18%	+12.90	6-0
1949-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-38	1658.72	1688.21	41.52%	51.57%	-33.04	6-1
1949-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 7-7	1625.68	1449.19	68.64%	24.53%	-1.71	6-1
1949-11-20	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 28-28	1623.97	1576.95	52.40%	40.69%	-0.45	6-1
1949-11-27	New York Bulldogs	W 42-20	1623.52	1293.35	82.22%	11.17%	+8.90	7-1
1949-12-04	Chicago Cardinals	L 27-31	1632.42	1588.86	53.53%	39.56%	-17.13	7-2
1949-12-11	Washington Redskins	W 53-27	1615.29	1454.73	68.17%	24.99%	+21.23	8-2
1949-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-7	1402.50	1618.67	20.55%	72.66%	-9.12	0-1
1949-09-30	New York Giants	L 14-38	1393.38	1403.05	45.98%	47.10%	-36.35	0-2
1949-10-07	Green Bay Packers	L 0-19	1357.03	1356.41	47.46%	45.62%	-33.32	0-3
1949-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1323.71	1465.78	27.04%	66.10%	-22.00	0-4
1949-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1301.71	1488.84	22.24%	70.95%	-12.33	0-5
1949-10-30	Washington Redskins	T 14-14	1289.38	1462.13	24.93%	68.23%	+1.67	0-5
1949-11-06	@ New York Giants	W 31-24	1291.05	1498.93	20.24%	72.97%	+30.73	1-5
1949-11-13	Chicago Cardinals	L 20-65	1321.78	1555.59	18.94%	74.28%	-21.35	1-6
1949-11-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-42	1300.43	1736.58	6.42%	87.18%	-7.08	1-7
1949-11-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-42	1293.35	1623.52	11.17%	82.22%	-8.90	1-8
1949-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-28	1284.45	1397.61	30.46%	62.67%	-5.03	1-9
1949-12-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1279.42	1455.18	24.61%	68.56%	-21.31	1-10
1949-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-28	1434.66	1457.02	42.52%	50.56%	-31.61	0-1
1949-09-30	@ New York Bulldogs	W 38-14	1403.05	1393.38	47.10%	45.98%	+36.36	1-1
1949-10-09	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-35	1439.41	1493.57	38.10%	54.99%	+27.79	2-1
1949-10-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1467.20	1473.86	46.42%	46.67%	-14.97	2-2
1949-10-23	Chicago Bears	W 35-28	1452.23	1680.17	19.46%	73.75%	+31.06	3-2
1949-10-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 41-38	1483.29	1549.11	36.53%	56.57%	+15.64	4-2
1949-11-06	New York Bulldogs	L 24-31	1498.93	1291.05	72.97%	20.24%	-30.73	4-3
1949-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-10	1468.20	1357.45	60.92%	32.19%	+23.72	5-3
1949-11-20	Detroit Lions	L 21-45	1491.92	1360.31	64.89%	28.25%	-50.59	5-4
1949-11-27	Washington Redskins	W 23-7	1441.33	1460.25	44.66%	48.43%	+31.15	6-4
1949-12-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-24	1472.48	1754.28	15.07%	78.23%	-11.66	6-5
1949-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1460.82	1765.94	12.68%	80.67%	-8.04	6-6
1949-09-22	@ New York Bulldogs	W 7-0	1618.67	1402.50	72.66%	20.55%	+9.11	1-0
1949-10-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 22-14	1627.78	1380.01	75.50%	17.74%	+8.45	2-0
1949-10-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-3	1636.23	1616.33	50.21%	42.87%	+34.76	3-0
1949-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-38	1670.99	1647.67	49.05%	44.03%	-32.51	3-1
1949-10-23	Washington Redskins	W 49-14	1638.48	1487.78	67.08%	26.07%	+25.65	4-1
1949-10-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-7	1664.13	1501.17	67.15%	26.00%	+24.08	5-1
1949-11-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-14	1688.21	1658.72	51.57%	41.52%	+33.05	6-1
1949-11-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 44-21	1721.26	1488.36	74.20%	19.02%	+15.32	7-1
1949-11-20	New York Bulldogs	W 42-0	1736.58	1300.43	87.18%	6.42%	+7.09	8-1
1949-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-17	1743.67	1475.73	78.05%	15.23%	+10.61	9-1
1949-12-04	@ New York Giants	W 24-3	1754.28	1472.48	78.23%	15.07%	+11.66	10-1
1949-12-11	New York Giants	W 17-3	1765.94	1460.82	80.67%	12.68%	+8.04	11-1
1949-09-25	New York Giants	W 28-7	1457.02	1434.66	50.56%	42.52%	+31.61	1-0
1949-10-03	Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1488.63	1464.16	50.86%	42.22%	-29.41	1-1
1949-10-08	Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1459.22	1371.57	59.45%	33.66%	+14.64	2-1
1949-10-16	@ New York Giants	W 21-17	1473.86	1467.20	46.67%	46.42%	+14.98	3-1
1949-10-23	New York Bulldogs	W 24-13	1488.84	1301.71	70.95%	22.24%	+12.33	4-1
1949-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-38	1501.17	1664.13	26.00%	67.15%	-24.07	4-2
1949-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1477.10	1460.45	48.10%	44.98%	-27.91	4-3
1949-11-13	Los Angeles Rams	T 7-7	1449.19	1625.68	24.53%	68.64%	+1.71	4-3
1949-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-7	1450.90	1333.72	61.73%	31.39%	+24.83	5-3
1949-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-34	1475.73	1743.67	15.23%	78.05%	-10.60	5-4
1949-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-30	1465.13	1678.26	19.76%	73.46%	-9.95	5-5
1949-12-11	@ New York Bulldogs	W 27-0	1455.18	1279.42	68.56%	24.61%	+21.31	6-5
1949-09-26	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-38	1491.43	1611.54	29.61%	63.51%	-27.27	0-1
1949-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-14	1464.16	1488.63	42.22%	50.86%	+29.41	1-1
1949-10-09	New York Giants	L 35-45	1493.57	1439.41	54.99%	38.10%	-27.79	1-2
1949-10-16	New York Bulldogs	W 38-14	1465.78	1323.71	66.10%	27.04%	+22.00	2-2
1949-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-49	1487.78	1638.48	26.07%	67.08%	-25.65	2-3
1949-10-30	@ New York Bulldogs	T 14-14	1462.13	1289.38	68.23%	24.93%	-1.68	2-3
1949-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-14	1460.45	1477.10	44.98%	48.10%	+27.91	3-3
1949-11-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-44	1488.36	1721.26	19.02%	74.20%	-15.33	3-4
1949-11-20	Chicago Bears	L 21-31	1473.03	1652.18	24.24%	68.92%	-12.78	3-5
1949-11-27	@ New York Giants	L 7-23	1460.25	1441.33	48.43%	44.66%	-31.16	3-6
1949-12-04	Green Bay Packers	W 30-0	1429.09	1297.42	64.89%	28.24%	+25.64	4-6
1949-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-53	1454.73	1615.29	24.99%	68.17%	-21.22	4-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1949-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-14	1636.52	1773.98	31.91%	68.09%	-17.92	0-1
1949-12-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 14-0	1773.98	1636.52	68.09%	31.91%	+17.92	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1949-10-23	16.48%	Detroit Lions	1347.81	24	@ Chicago Cardinals	1599.54	7
2	1949-10-23	19.46%	@ New York Giants	1452.23	35	Chicago Bears	1680.17	28
3	1949-11-06	20.24%	New York Bulldogs	1291.05	31	@ New York Giants	1498.93	24
4	1949-11-20	28.25%	Detroit Lions	1360.31	45	@ New York Giants	1491.92	21
5	1949-10-09	32.03%	Los Angeles Rams	1584.87	31	@ Chicago Bears	1685.36	16
6	1949-10-30	36.53%	New York Giants	1483.29	41	@ Chicago Cardinals	1549.11	38
7	1949-10-09	38.10%	New York Giants	1439.41	45	@ Washington Redskins	1493.57	35
8	1949-12-04	39.56%	Chicago Cardinals	1588.86	31	@ Los Angeles Rams	1632.42	27
9	1949-10-30	41.58%	@ Green Bay Packers	1357.62	16	Detroit Lions	1398.25	14
10	1949-10-03	42.22%	Washington Redskins	1464.16	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1488.63	14
11	1949-10-16	44.03%	@ Chicago Bears	1647.67	38	Philadelphia Eagles	1670.99	21
12	1949-11-27	44.66%	@ New York Giants	1441.33	23	Washington Redskins	1460.25	7
13	1949-11-06	44.98%	@ Washington Redskins	1460.45	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1477.10	14
14	1949-10-07	45.62%	Green Bay Packers	1356.41	19	@ New York Bulldogs	1357.03	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1949-11-20	50.60	Detroit Lions	45	1360.31	28.25%	@ New York Giants	21	1491.92	64.89%
2	1949-10-23	50.44	Detroit Lions	24	1347.81	16.48%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1599.54	76.79%
3	1949-10-09	37.69	Los Angeles Rams	31	1584.87	32.03%	@ Chicago Bears	16	1685.36	61.09%
4	1949-09-30	36.36	New York Giants	38	1403.05	47.10%	@ New York Bulldogs	14	1393.38	45.98%
5	1949-10-08	34.76	@ Philadelphia Eagles	28	1636.23	50.21%	Chicago Cardinals	3	1616.33	42.87%
6	1949-10-07	33.32	Green Bay Packers	19	1356.41	45.62%	@ New York Bulldogs	0	1357.03	47.46%
7	1949-11-06	33.05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	38	1688.21	51.57%	Los Angeles Rams	14	1658.72	41.52%
8	1949-10-16	32.51	@ Chicago Bears	38	1647.67	44.03%	Philadelphia Eagles	21	1670.99	49.05%
9	1949-09-25	31.61	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1457.02	50.56%	New York Giants	7	1434.66	42.52%
10	1949-12-11	31.42	@ Chicago Bears	52	1688.21	58.74%	Chicago Cardinals	21	1605.99	34.36%
11	1949-11-27	31.16	@ New York Giants	23	1441.33	44.66%	Washington Redskins	7	1460.25	48.43%
12	1949-10-23	31.06	@ New York Giants	35	1452.23	19.46%	Chicago Bears	28	1680.17	73.75%
13	1949-11-06	30.73	New York Bulldogs	31	1291.05	20.24%	@ New York Giants	24	1498.93	72.97%
14	1949-10-03	29.41	Washington Redskins	27	1464.16	42.22%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1488.63	50.86%
15	1949-11-06	27.91	@ Washington Redskins	27	1460.45	44.98%	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1477.10	48.10%
16	1949-10-09	27.79	New York Giants	45	1439.41	38.10%	@ Washington Redskins	35	1493.57	54.99%
17	1949-09-26	27.27	@ Chicago Cardinals	38	1611.54	63.51%	Washington Redskins	7	1491.43	29.61%
18	1949-10-02	26.24	Los Angeles Rams	48	1558.64	68.58%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1382.65	24.58%
19	1949-10-23	25.65	@ Philadelphia Eagles	49	1638.48	67.08%	Washington Redskins	14	1487.78	26.07%
20	1949-12-04	25.64	@ Washington Redskins	30	1429.09	64.89%	Green Bay Packers	0	1297.42	28.24%
21	1949-11-20	24.83	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	1450.90	61.73%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1333.72	31.39%
22	1949-10-30	24.08	Philadelphia Eagles	38	1664.13	67.15%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1501.17	26.00%
23	1949-11-13	23.73	New York Giants	30	1468.20	60.92%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1357.45	32.19%
24	1949-10-02	22.49	Chicago Bears	17	1662.87	49.16%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1638.81	43.92%
25	1949-11-06	22.13	Chicago Cardinals	42	1533.46	65.32%	@ Detroit Lions	19	1386.57	27.82%