1948 NFL Season

60 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

1st Title

Runner-Up

Chicago Cardinals

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1947

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Cardinals

3.05 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.95 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Green Bay Packers

2.99 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.99 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	9	2	1	.792	—	376	156	+220	8.12	+1.38
2	Washington Redskins	7	5	0	.583	2.5	291	287	+4	6.02	+0.98
3	New York Giants	4	8	0	.333	5.5	297	388	-91	4.83	-0.83
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	8	0	.333	5.5	200	243	-43	5.68	-1.68
5	Boston Yanks	3	9	0	.250	6.5	174	372	-198	3.54	-0.54

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Cardinals Division	11	1	0	.917	—	395	226	+169	7.95	+3.05
2	Chicago Bears	10	2	0	.833	1	375	151	+224	8.56	+1.44
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	5	1	.542	4.5	327	269	+58	5.98	+0.52
4	Green Bay Packers	3	9	0	.250	8	154	290	-136	5.99	-2.99
5	Detroit Lions	2	10	0	.167	9	200	407	-207	3.34	-1.34

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Philadelphia Eagles 7

Chicago Cardinals 0

Dec 19

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1719	10	8.56	+1.44	92.77%	3	6	7	8	9	11	12
Chicago Cardinals	West	1706	11	7.95	+3.05	99.54%	2	5	7	8	9	10	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1649	9.5	8.12	+1.38	84.03%	3	5	7	8	9	10	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1573	6.5	5.98	+0.52	64.16%	0	3	5	6	7	9	11
Washington Redskins	East	1487	7	6.02	+0.98	83.60%	0	3	5	6	7	9	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1432	4	5.68	-1.68	25.81%	0	3	4	6	7	8	11
New York Giants	East	1399	4	4.83	-0.83	46.02%	0	2	4	5	6	7	11
Boston Yanks	East	1362	3	3.54	-0.54	53.68%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Green Bay Packers	West	1346	3	5.99	-2.99	6.86%	0	3	5	6	7	8	12
Detroit Lions	West	1328	2	3.34	-1.34	32.09%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Boston Yanks	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Boston Yanks	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
New York Giants	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.83%	1.67%	0.83%	1.67%	—	3.33%	8.33%
7–13	0.83%	5.00%	0.83%	4.17%	0.83%	2.50%	3.33%	17.50%
14–20	1.67%	0.83%	5.00%	2.50%	3.33%	2.50%	2.50%	18.33%
21–27	0.83%	4.17%	2.50%	5.00%	3.33%	—	5.00%	20.83%
28–34	1.67%	0.83%	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	0.83%	—	11.67%
35–41	—	2.50%	2.50%	—	0.83%	—	1.67%	7.50%
42+	3.33%	3.33%	2.50%	5.00%	—	1.67%	—	15.83%
Total	8.33%	17.50%	18.33%	20.83%	11.67%	7.50%	15.83%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.24	23.24	+0.00
SD	14.71	14.71	23.22
CV	0.63	0.63	—
Max	63	63	+46
Min	0	0	-46

Games Played: 60

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	—	33.33%	100%

Boston Yanks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.50	31.00	-16.50
SD	10.67	16.50	19.84
CV	0.74	0.53	—
Max	37	59	+23
Min	0	7	-45

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	41.67%
Total	25.00%	25.00%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.25	12.58	+18.67
SD	15.11	6.88	15.00
CV	0.48	0.55	—
Max	51	24	+38
Min	7	0	-5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	—	41.67%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.92	18.83	+14.08
SD	15.61	9.15	14.16
CV	0.47	0.49	—
Max	63	35	+36
Min	17	7	-11

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	25.00%	—	33.33%	—	41.67%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.67	33.92	-17.25
SD	7.51	13.04	14.42
CV	0.45	0.38	—
Max	27	56	+4
Min	0	14	-37

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	16.67%	50.00%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.83	24.17	-11.33
SD	10.09	16.75	23.62
CV	0.79	0.69	—
Max	33	49	+31
Min	3	0	-46

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
Total	—	25.00%	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.25	22.42	+4.83
SD	14.85	10.81	18.06
CV	0.54	0.48	—
Max	52	42	+37
Min	0	7	-21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%	—	16.67%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%	16.67%
42+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%	25.00%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.75	32.33	-7.58
SD	13.59	17.82	25.40
CV	0.55	0.55	—
Max	49	63	+46
Min	0	3	-45

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	25.00%	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	41.67%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.33	13.00	+18.33
SD	13.73	12.58	21.58
CV	0.44	0.97	—
Max	45	37	+45
Min	12	0	-23

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	33.33%	8.33%	33.33%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.67	20.25	-3.58
SD	12.41	9.73	15.71
CV	0.74	0.48	—
Max	38	34	+31
Min	0	7	-27

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	33.33%	8.33%	25.00%	—	8.33%	25.00%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.25	23.92	+0.33
SD	17.00	15.74	27.11
CV	0.70	0.66	—
Max	59	48	+38
Min	0	7	-45

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Cardinals	11	7.95	+3.05
2	Chicago Bears	10	8.56	+1.44
3	Philadelphia Eagles	9.5	8.12	+1.38
4	Washington Redskins	7	6.02	+0.98
5	Los Angeles Rams	6.5	5.98	+0.52

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	3	5.99	-2.99
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	5.68	-1.68
3	Detroit Lions	2	3.34	-1.34
4	New York Giants	4	4.83	-0.83
5	Boston Yanks	3	3.54	-0.54

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	10	Oct 10 – Dec 12	1 in 81
2	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Oct 10 – Nov 28	1 in 23
3	Washington Redskins	4	Oct 24 – Nov 14	1 in 10
4	Boston Yanks	2	Oct 9 – Oct 17	1 in 7
5	Los Angeles Rams	3	Nov 28 – Dec 12	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	7	Oct 24 – Dec 5	1 in 109
2	Detroit Lions	5	Sep 22 – Oct 24	1 in 11
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 17 – Oct 31	1 in 9
4	Boston Yanks	6	Oct 24 – Nov 28	1 in 5
5	Washington Redskins	3	Nov 21 – Dec 5	1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	67.06%	21.56%	8.30%	2.49%	0.59%
Washington Redskins	15.85%	32.22%	26.68%	17.50%	7.75%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.83%	26.55%	29.62%	21.86%	11.14%
New York Giants	5.21%	14.63%	24.19%	32.39%	23.58%
Boston Yanks	1.05%	5.04%	11.21%	25.76%	56.94%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	53.53%	30.25%	11.87%	4.01%	0.34%
Chicago Cardinals	33.43%	37.86%	19.09%	8.60%	1.02%
Green Bay Packers	6.18%	15.47%	32.55%	35.77%	10.03%
Los Angeles Rams	6.72%	15.38%	31.87%	34.63%	11.40%
Detroit Lions	0.14%	1.04%	4.62%	16.99%	77.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	37.97%	23.36%	17.53%	9.54%	6.16%	3.04%	1.61%	0.65%	0.12%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	25.05%	29.79%	16.18%	13.01%	6.79%	5.02%	2.28%	1.35%	0.44%	0.09%
Chicago Cardinals	23.72%	19.08%	22.01%	13.55%	9.48%	6.19%	3.46%	1.78%	0.60%	0.13%
Washington Redskins	3.39%	7.74%	10.32%	16.08%	14.52%	16.17%	12.14%	10.26%	6.29%	3.09%
Green Bay Packers	2.94%	5.61%	10.56%	12.04%	17.28%	14.55%	16.38%	11.46%	5.68%	3.50%
Los Angeles Rams	3.80%	5.68%	10.01%	11.69%	17.13%	14.25%	15.50%	11.93%	6.51%	3.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.18%	5.57%	7.98%	13.60%	13.06%	17.10%	13.75%	13.17%	8.25%	5.34%
New York Giants	0.81%	2.59%	4.08%	7.10%	9.43%	13.28%	16.29%	19.63%	15.78%	11.01%
Boston Yanks	0.06%	0.46%	0.78%	2.27%	3.58%	6.60%	9.73%	16.45%	24.70%	35.37%
Detroit Lions	0.08%	0.12%	0.55%	1.12%	2.57%	3.80%	8.86%	13.32%	31.63%	37.95%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	67.06%	32.94%
Washington Redskins	15.85%	84.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.83%	89.17%
New York Giants	5.21%	94.79%
Boston Yanks	1.05%	98.95%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	53.53%	46.47%
Chicago Cardinals	33.43%	66.57%
Los Angeles Rams	6.72%	93.28%
Green Bay Packers	6.18%	93.82%
Detroit Lions	0.14%	99.86%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	67.06%	35.96%
Chicago Bears	53.53%	32.07%
Chicago Cardinals	33.43%	19.28%
Washington Redskins	15.85%	4.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.83%	2.88%
Los Angeles Rams	6.72%	2.69%
New York Giants	5.21%	1.18%
Green Bay Packers	6.18%	0.90%
Boston Yanks	1.05%	0.20%
Detroit Lions	0.14%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Yanks	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Boston Yanks		0.09%	0.05%		0.02%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.44%						2.28%	18.25%	5.12%	5.98%
Chicago Cardinals	0.37%						1.46%	10.85%	2.23%	4.37%
Detroit Lions								0.02%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%						0.08%	0.51%	0.17%	0.12%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%						0.21%	1.47%	0.43%	0.56%
New York Giants		0.55%	0.42%	0.01%	0.12%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles		17.10%	11.39%	0.09%	4.20%	3.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers		1.53%	0.71%		0.38%	0.26%
Washington Redskins		2.19%	1.58%	0.01%	0.56%	0.47%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	51.61%
Chicago Cardinals	48.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Cardinals	Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Cardinals		48.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	51.61%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Philadelphia Eagles 51.61% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.61%

Chicago Cardinals 48.39% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.39%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1948-09-17	Green Bay Packers	L 0-31	1442.82	1540.52	44.30%	53.83%	-36.64	0-1
1948-09-23	New York Giants	L 7-27	1406.18	1440.36	53.40%	44.73%	-35.36	0-2
1948-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1370.82	1479.75	26.20%	71.93%	-12.39	0-3
1948-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1358.43	1391.24	35.50%	62.63%	+16.03	1-3
1948-10-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-7	1374.46	1502.76	40.01%	58.13%	+21.06	2-3
1948-10-24	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 27-49	1395.52	1607.91	16.37%	81.77%	-11.52	2-4
1948-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-59	1384.00	1484.20	27.18%	70.95%	-25.06	2-5
1948-11-07	Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1358.94	1509.26	37.00%	61.13%	-22.05	2-6
1948-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-45	1336.89	1668.76	8.96%	89.18%	-9.05	2-7
1948-11-21	Chicago Bears	L 17-51	1327.84	1694.80	14.44%	83.70%	-12.65	2-8
1948-11-28	@ New York Giants	L 14-28	1315.19	1424.27	26.18%	71.95%	-14.65	2-9
1948-12-05	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-14	1300.54	1702.22	12.14%	86.00%	+61.02	3-9
1948-09-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 45-7	1577.16	1577.16	39.93%	58.20%	+53.07	1-0
1948-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-17	1630.23	1579.45	47.10%	51.03%	+25.07	2-0
1948-10-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 42-21	1655.30	1536.72	72.99%	25.14%	+17.24	3-0
1948-10-17	Detroit Lions	W 28-0	1672.54	1375.20	87.42%	10.71%	+8.53	4-0
1948-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-12	1681.07	1608.10	50.30%	47.83%	-16.66	4-1
1948-10-31	New York Giants	W 35-14	1664.41	1406.81	85.03%	13.11%	+9.03	5-1
1948-11-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-6	1673.44	1496.56	64.61%	33.52%	+19.36	6-1
1948-11-14	Green Bay Packers	W 7-6	1692.80	1438.21	84.83%	13.31%	+2.00	7-1
1948-11-21	@ Boston Yanks	W 51-17	1694.80	1327.84	83.70%	14.44%	+12.65	8-1
1948-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 48-13	1707.45	1529.73	78.85%	19.28%	+17.11	9-1
1948-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-14	1724.56	1346.34	84.48%	13.66%	+10.86	10-1
1948-12-12	Chicago Cardinals	L 21-24	1735.42	1689.85	64.30%	33.83%	-16.46	10-2
1948-09-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-14	1564.76	1545.44	60.84%	37.30%	+14.69	1-0
1948-10-04	Chicago Bears	L 17-28	1579.45	1630.23	51.03%	47.10%	-25.07	1-1
1948-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-7	1554.38	1537.05	42.35%	55.78%	+26.10	2-1
1948-10-17	@ New York Giants	W 63-35	1580.48	1413.25	63.37%	34.76%	+27.43	3-1
1948-10-24	Boston Yanks	W 49-27	1607.91	1395.52	81.77%	16.37%	+11.52	4-1
1948-10-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-22	1619.43	1510.77	55.38%	42.75%	+14.21	5-1
1948-11-07	Detroit Lions	W 56-20	1633.64	1368.71	85.50%	12.63%	+11.40	6-1
1948-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-7	1645.04	1471.45	64.19%	33.94%	+20.87	7-1
1948-11-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1665.91	1502.81	77.50%	20.63%	+5.36	8-1
1948-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-14	1671.27	1356.77	79.55%	18.58%	+10.43	9-1
1948-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 42-7	1681.70	1353.97	88.99%	9.15%	+8.15	10-1
1948-12-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-21	1689.85	1735.42	33.83%	64.30%	+16.46	11-1
1948-09-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-44	1431.10	1510.55	29.61%	68.52%	-26.90	0-1
1948-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-33	1404.20	1524.09	25.00%	73.13%	-12.96	0-2
1948-10-09	Boston Yanks	L 14-17	1391.24	1358.43	62.63%	35.50%	-16.04	0-3
1948-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-28	1375.20	1672.54	10.71%	87.42%	-8.53	0-4
1948-10-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 27-34	1366.67	1495.02	40.00%	58.13%	-15.75	0-5
1948-10-31	Green Bay Packers	W 24-20	1350.92	1493.98	37.98%	60.15%	+17.79	1-5
1948-11-07	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 20-56	1368.71	1633.64	12.63%	85.50%	-11.40	1-6
1948-11-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-46	1357.31	1531.30	19.62%	78.51%	-14.71	1-7
1948-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1342.60	1450.58	42.84%	55.29%	+14.17	2-7
1948-11-25	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-28	1356.77	1671.27	18.58%	79.55%	-10.43	2-8
1948-12-05	Chicago Bears	L 14-42	1346.34	1724.56	13.66%	84.48%	-10.86	2-9
1948-12-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-45	1335.48	1641.19	10.26%	87.88%	-7.57	2-10
1948-09-17	@ Boston Yanks	W 31-0	1540.52	1442.82	53.83%	44.30%	+36.64	1-0
1948-09-26	Chicago Bears	L 7-45	1577.16	1577.16	58.20%	39.93%	-53.07	1-1
1948-10-03	Detroit Lions	W 33-21	1524.09	1404.20	73.13%	25.00%	+12.96	2-1
1948-10-10	Chicago Cardinals	L 7-17	1537.05	1554.38	55.78%	42.35%	-26.11	2-2
1948-10-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 16-0	1510.94	1519.48	57.01%	41.12%	+24.46	3-2
1948-10-24	Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1535.40	1442.77	70.08%	28.06%	-41.42	3-3
1948-10-31	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-24	1493.98	1350.92	60.15%	37.98%	-17.79	3-4
1948-11-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-38	1476.19	1433.47	45.95%	52.18%	-37.98	3-5
1948-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-7	1438.21	1692.80	13.31%	84.83%	-2.00	3-6
1948-11-21	New York Giants	L 3-49	1436.21	1355.43	68.68%	29.45%	-68.84	3-7
1948-11-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1367.37	1497.45	23.91%	74.22%	-13.40	3-8
1948-12-05	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-42	1353.97	1681.70	9.15%	88.99%	-8.15	3-9
1948-09-22	Detroit Lions	W 44-7	1510.55	1431.10	68.52%	29.61%	+26.91	1-0
1948-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	T 28-28	1537.46	1530.75	59.12%	39.01%	-0.74	1-0
1948-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-42	1536.72	1655.30	25.14%	72.99%	-17.24	1-1
1948-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-16	1519.48	1510.94	41.12%	57.01%	-24.46	1-2
1948-10-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-27	1495.02	1366.67	58.13%	40.00%	+15.75	2-2
1948-10-31	Chicago Cardinals	L 22-27	1510.77	1619.43	42.75%	55.38%	-14.21	2-3
1948-11-07	Chicago Bears	L 6-21	1496.56	1673.44	33.52%	64.61%	-19.36	2-4
1948-11-14	@ New York Giants	W 52-37	1477.20	1381.04	53.61%	44.52%	+25.61	3-4
1948-11-21	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 24-27	1502.81	1665.91	20.63%	77.50%	-5.36	3-5
1948-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1497.45	1367.37	74.22%	23.91%	+13.40	4-5
1948-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 41-13	1510.85	1512.62	39.69%	58.44%	+45.74	5-5
1948-12-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-14	1556.59	1447.76	71.92%	26.21%	+16.17	6-5
1948-09-23	@ Boston Yanks	W 27-7	1440.36	1406.18	44.73%	53.40%	+35.35	1-0
1948-10-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-41	1475.71	1467.55	41.06%	57.07%	-34.00	1-1
1948-10-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-45	1441.71	1531.48	28.39%	69.74%	-28.46	1-2
1948-10-17	Chicago Cardinals	L 35-63	1413.25	1580.48	34.76%	63.37%	-27.43	1-3
1948-10-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-27	1385.82	1481.70	44.56%	53.57%	+20.99	2-3
1948-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-35	1406.81	1664.41	13.11%	85.03%	-9.03	2-4
1948-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-35	1397.78	1652.02	24.41%	73.72%	-16.74	2-5
1948-11-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 37-52	1381.04	1477.20	44.52%	53.61%	-25.61	2-6
1948-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 49-3	1355.43	1436.21	29.45%	68.68%	+68.84	3-6
1948-11-28	Boston Yanks	W 28-14	1424.27	1315.19	71.95%	26.18%	+14.65	4-6
1948-12-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-38	1438.92	1428.28	41.41%	56.72%	-19.47	4-7
1948-12-12	Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1419.45	1466.88	51.51%	46.62%	-20.19	4-8
1948-09-24	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 14-21	1545.44	1564.76	37.30%	60.84%	-14.69	0-1
1948-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 28-28	1530.75	1537.46	39.01%	59.12%	+0.73	0-1
1948-10-10	New York Giants	W 45-0	1531.48	1441.71	69.74%	28.39%	+28.46	1-1
1948-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-0	1559.94	1490.93	49.73%	48.40%	+48.16	2-1
1948-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 12-7	1608.10	1681.07	47.83%	50.30%	+16.67	3-1
1948-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-7	1624.77	1460.72	62.95%	35.18%	+27.25	4-1
1948-11-07	@ New York Giants	W 35-14	1652.02	1397.78	73.72%	24.41%	+16.74	5-1
1948-11-14	Boston Yanks	W 45-0	1668.76	1336.89	89.18%	8.96%	+9.05	6-1
1948-11-21	Washington Redskins	W 42-21	1677.81	1546.02	74.40%	23.74%	+16.28	7-1
1948-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-0	1694.09	1436.41	85.03%	13.10%	+8.13	8-1
1948-12-05	@ Boston Yanks	L 14-37	1702.22	1300.54	86.00%	12.14%	-61.03	8-2
1948-12-12	Detroit Lions	W 45-21	1641.19	1335.48	87.88%	10.26%	+7.57	9-2
1948-09-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1491.29	1456.00	44.89%	53.24%	-11.54	0-1
1948-10-03	Boston Yanks	W 24-14	1479.75	1370.82	71.93%	26.20%	+12.39	1-1
1948-10-10	Washington Redskins	W 10-7	1492.14	1501.55	56.89%	41.24%	+10.62	2-1
1948-10-17	@ Boston Yanks	L 7-13	1502.76	1374.46	58.13%	40.01%	-21.06	2-2
1948-10-24	@ New York Giants	L 27-34	1481.70	1385.82	53.57%	44.56%	-20.98	2-3
1948-10-31	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-34	1460.72	1624.77	35.18%	62.95%	-27.25	2-4
1948-11-07	Green Bay Packers	W 38-7	1433.47	1476.19	52.18%	45.95%	+37.98	3-4
1948-11-14	Chicago Cardinals	L 7-24	1471.45	1645.04	33.94%	64.19%	-20.87	3-5
1948-11-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1450.58	1342.60	55.29%	42.84%	-14.17	3-6
1948-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-17	1436.41	1694.09	13.10%	85.03%	-8.13	3-7
1948-12-05	New York Giants	W 38-28	1428.28	1438.92	56.72%	41.41%	+19.48	4-7
1948-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-31	1447.76	1556.59	26.21%	71.92%	-16.17	4-8
1948-09-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1456.00	1491.29	53.24%	44.89%	+11.55	1-0
1948-10-03	New York Giants	W 41-10	1467.55	1475.71	57.07%	41.06%	+34.00	2-0
1948-10-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-10	1501.55	1492.14	41.24%	56.89%	-10.62	2-1
1948-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-45	1490.93	1559.94	48.40%	49.73%	-48.16	2-2
1948-10-24	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-7	1442.77	1535.40	28.06%	70.08%	+41.43	3-2
1948-10-31	Boston Yanks	W 59-21	1484.20	1384.00	70.95%	27.18%	+25.06	4-2
1948-11-07	@ Boston Yanks	W 23-7	1509.26	1358.94	61.13%	37.00%	+22.04	5-2
1948-11-14	Detroit Lions	W 46-21	1531.30	1357.31	78.51%	19.62%	+14.72	6-2
1948-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-42	1546.02	1677.81	23.74%	74.40%	-16.29	6-3
1948-11-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-48	1529.73	1707.45	19.28%	78.85%	-17.11	6-4
1948-12-05	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-41	1512.62	1510.85	58.44%	39.69%	-45.74	6-5
1948-12-12	@ New York Giants	W 28-21	1466.88	1419.45	46.62%	51.51%	+20.19	7-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1948-12-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-7	1706.31	1648.76	49.01%	50.99%	-18.87	0-1
1948-12-19	Chicago Cardinals	W 7-0	1648.76	1706.31	50.99%	49.01%	+18.87	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1948-12-05	12.14%	@ Boston Yanks	1300.54	37	Philadelphia Eagles	1702.22	14
2	1948-10-24	28.06%	Washington Redskins	1442.77	23	@ Green Bay Packers	1535.40	7
3	1948-11-21	29.45%	New York Giants	1355.43	49	@ Green Bay Packers	1436.21	3
4	1948-12-12	33.83%	Chicago Cardinals	1689.85	24	@ Chicago Bears	1735.42	21
5	1948-10-09	35.50%	Boston Yanks	1358.43	17	@ Detroit Lions	1391.24	14
6	1948-10-31	37.98%	@ Detroit Lions	1350.92	24	Green Bay Packers	1493.98	20
7	1948-12-05	39.69%	Los Angeles Rams	1510.85	41	@ Washington Redskins	1512.62	13
8	1948-09-26	39.93%	Chicago Bears	1577.16	45	@ Green Bay Packers	1577.16	7
9	1948-10-17	40.01%	@ Boston Yanks	1374.46	13	Pittsburgh Steelers	1502.76	7
10	1948-10-10	42.35%	Chicago Cardinals	1554.38	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1537.05	7
11	1948-11-21	42.84%	@ Detroit Lions	1342.60	17	Pittsburgh Steelers	1450.58	14
12	1948-10-24	44.56%	@ New York Giants	1385.82	34	Pittsburgh Steelers	1481.70	27
13	1948-09-23	44.73%	New York Giants	1440.36	27	@ Boston Yanks	1406.18	7
14	1948-12-12	46.62%	Washington Redskins	1466.88	28	@ New York Giants	1419.45	21
15	1948-10-04	47.10%	Chicago Bears	1630.23	28	@ Chicago Cardinals	1579.45	17
16	1948-10-24	47.83%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1608.10	12	Chicago Bears	1681.07	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1948-11-21	68.84	New York Giants	49	1355.43	29.45%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1436.21	68.68%
2	1948-12-05	61.03	@ Boston Yanks	37	1300.54	12.14%	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1702.22	86.00%
3	1948-09-26	53.07	Chicago Bears	45	1577.16	39.93%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1577.16	58.20%
4	1948-10-17	48.16	Philadelphia Eagles	45	1559.94	49.73%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1490.93	48.40%
5	1948-12-05	45.74	Los Angeles Rams	41	1510.85	39.69%	@ Washington Redskins	13	1512.62	58.44%
6	1948-10-24	41.43	Washington Redskins	23	1442.77	28.06%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1535.40	70.08%
7	1948-11-07	37.98	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	38	1433.47	52.18%	Green Bay Packers	7	1476.19	45.95%
8	1948-09-17	36.64	Green Bay Packers	31	1540.52	53.83%	@ Boston Yanks	0	1442.82	44.30%
9	1948-09-23	35.36	New York Giants	27	1440.36	44.73%	@ Boston Yanks	7	1406.18	53.40%
10	1948-10-03	34.00	@ Washington Redskins	41	1467.55	57.07%	New York Giants	10	1475.71	41.06%
11	1948-10-10	28.46	@ Philadelphia Eagles	45	1531.48	69.74%	New York Giants	0	1441.71	28.39%
12	1948-10-17	27.43	Chicago Cardinals	63	1580.48	63.37%	@ New York Giants	35	1413.25	34.76%
13	1948-10-31	27.25	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1624.77	62.95%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1460.72	35.18%
14	1948-09-22	26.91	@ Los Angeles Rams	44	1510.55	68.52%	Detroit Lions	7	1431.10	29.61%
15	1948-10-10	26.11	Chicago Cardinals	17	1554.38	42.35%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1537.05	55.78%
16	1948-11-14	25.61	Los Angeles Rams	52	1477.20	53.61%	@ New York Giants	37	1381.04	44.52%
17	1948-10-04	25.07	Chicago Bears	28	1630.23	47.10%	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1579.45	51.03%
18	1948-10-31	25.06	@ Washington Redskins	59	1484.20	70.95%	Boston Yanks	21	1384.00	27.18%
19	1948-10-17	24.46	@ Green Bay Packers	16	1510.94	57.01%	Los Angeles Rams	0	1519.48	41.12%
20	1948-11-07	22.05	Washington Redskins	23	1509.26	61.13%	@ Boston Yanks	7	1358.94	37.00%
21	1948-10-17	21.06	@ Boston Yanks	13	1374.46	40.01%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1502.76	58.13%
22	1948-10-24	20.99	@ New York Giants	34	1385.82	44.56%	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1481.70	53.57%
23	1948-11-14	20.87	Chicago Cardinals	24	1645.04	64.19%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1471.45	33.94%
24	1948-12-12	20.19	Washington Redskins	28	1466.88	46.62%	@ New York Giants	21	1419.45	51.51%
25	1948-12-05	19.48	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	38	1428.28	56.72%	New York Giants	28	1438.92	41.41%