1947 NFL Season

60 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Chicago Cardinals

2nd Title

Runner-Up

Philadelphia Eagles

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Cardinals

2.24 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.76 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

2.28 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.28 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	8	4	0	.667	—	240	259	-19	6.26	+1.74
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	8	4	0	.667	—	308	242	+66	6.91	+1.09
3	Boston Yanks	4	7	1	.375	3.5	168	256	-88	4.84	-0.34
4	Washington Redskins	4	8	0	.333	4	295	367	-72	5.39	-1.39
5	New York Giants	2	8	2	.250	5	190	309	-119	5.28	-2.28

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Cardinals Division	9	3	0	.750	—	306	231	+75	6.76	+2.24
2	Chicago Bears	8	4	0	.667	1	363	241	+122	7.38	+0.62
3	Green Bay Packers	6	5	1	.542	2.5	274	210	+64	6.39	+0.11
4	Los Angeles Rams	6	6	0	.500	3	259	214	+45	6.50	-0.50
5	Detroit Lions	3	9	0	.250	6	231	305	-74	4.30	-1.30

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

Philadelphia Eagles 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 0

Dec 21

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Cardinals 28

Philadelphia Eagles 21

Dec 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1627	8	7.38	+0.62	78.86%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
Chicago Cardinals	West	1609	9	6.76	+2.24	97.04%	1	4	5	7	8	9	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1564	6.5	6.39	+0.11	57.12%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1559	8	6.91	+1.09	85.91%	1	4	6	7	8	9	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1520	8	6.26	+1.74	93.48%	0	3	5	6	7	9	11
Los Angeles Rams	West	1517	6	6.50	-0.50	54.61%	0	4	5	6	7	9	12
Washington Redskins	East	1423	4	5.39	-1.39	34.36%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Boston Yanks	East	1410	4.5	4.84	-0.34	47.46%	0	2	4	5	6	7	11
New York Giants	East	1398	3	5.28	-2.28	16.79%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1373	3	4.30	-1.30	36.05%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Boston Yanks	—	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Boston Yanks	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	0.83%	1.67%	0.83%	—	—	3.33%
7–13	—	1.67%	5.00%	5.00%	2.50%	3.33%	1.67%	19.17%
14–20	0.83%	5.00%	6.67%	3.33%	5.83%	1.67%	0.83%	24.17%
21–27	1.67%	5.00%	3.33%	5.00%	2.50%	4.17%	2.50%	24.17%
28–34	0.83%	2.50%	5.83%	2.50%	—	0.83%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	3.33%	1.67%	4.17%	0.83%	—	—	10.00%
42+	—	1.67%	0.83%	2.50%	—	—	1.67%	6.67%
Total	3.33%	19.17%	24.17%	24.17%	12.50%	10.00%	6.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.95	21.95	+0.00
SD	11.90	11.90	18.26
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	56	56	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 60

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	41.67%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	—	100%

Boston Yanks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.00	21.33	-7.33
SD	8.94	11.21	14.93
CV	0.64	0.53	—
Max	27	40	+14
Min	0	0	-32

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	16.67%	33.33%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.25	20.08	+10.17
SD	14.62	8.13	20.36
CV	0.48	0.40	—
Max	56	31	+42
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	41.67%	8.33%	33.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.50	19.25	+6.25
SD	11.69	12.07	16.23
CV	0.46	0.63	—
Max	45	45	+24
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.25	25.42	-6.17
SD	9.38	11.79	16.69
CV	0.49	0.46	—
Max	38	45	+28
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	58.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.83	17.50	+5.33
SD	8.17	5.45	11.24
CV	0.36	0.31	—
Max	35	28	+21
Min	10	10	-14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	16.67%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	33.33%	41.67%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.58	17.83	+3.75
SD	11.84	10.09	18.69
CV	0.55	0.57	—
Max	48	41	+41
Min	7	7	-20

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	8.33%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.83	25.75	-9.92
SD	12.36	10.96	15.01
CV	0.78	0.43	—
Max	35	41	+25
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	16.67%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
Total	25.00%	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.67	20.17	+5.50
SD	11.60	17.03	20.42
CV	0.45	0.84	—
Max	45	45	+32
Min	7	0	-33

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%	16.67%
14–20	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	33.33%	—	—	16.67%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	21.58	-1.58
SD	11.53	14.08	21.34
CV	0.58	0.65	—
Max	38	49	+17
Min	0	7	-42

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
Total	—	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%	—	25.00%	16.67%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.58	30.58	-6.00
SD	12.28	12.19	19.26
CV	0.50	0.40	—
Max	45	56	+27
Min	10	13	-36

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Cardinals	9	6.76	+2.24
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	6.26	+1.74
3	Philadelphia Eagles	8	6.91	+1.09
4	Chicago Bears	8	7.38	+0.62
5	Green Bay Packers	6.5	6.39	+0.11

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	3	5.28	-2.28
2	Washington Redskins	4	5.39	-1.39
3	Detroit Lions	3	4.30	-1.30
4	Los Angeles Rams	6	6.50	-0.50
5	Boston Yanks	4.5	4.84	-0.34

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	Oct 12 – Nov 16	1 in 61
2	Chicago Bears	8	Oct 12 – Nov 27	1 in 57
3	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Oct 26 – Nov 16	1 in 12
4	Chicago Cardinals	4	Oct 26 – Nov 16	1 in 6
5	New York Giants	2	Nov 30 – Dec 7	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	7	Oct 5 – Nov 16	1 in 130
2	Los Angeles Rams	4	Oct 26 – Nov 16	1 in 46
3	Washington Redskins	5	Oct 19 – Nov 16	1 in 18
4	Boston Yanks	2	Oct 5 – Oct 12	1 in 9
5	Chicago Cardinals	2	Nov 23 – Nov 30	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	42.54%	24.73%	16.26%	10.74%	5.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers	26.05%	26.37%	21.15%	16.25%	10.18%
Washington Redskins	13.10%	18.99%	21.12%	23.04%	23.75%
New York Giants	11.44%	16.93%	21.44%	24.14%	26.05%
Boston Yanks	6.87%	12.98%	20.03%	25.83%	34.29%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	37.33%	25.45%	18.83%	13.46%	4.93%
Chicago Cardinals	23.70%	24.82%	23.41%	18.93%	9.14%
Los Angeles Rams	18.81%	23.36%	24.72%	21.76%	11.35%
Green Bay Packers	18.20%	21.20%	23.20%	24.50%	12.90%
Detroit Lions	1.96%	5.17%	9.84%	21.35%	61.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	25.97%	17.65%	13.92%	11.43%	9.07%	7.44%	6.47%	4.06%	2.68%	1.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.38%	17.95%	13.57%	12.01%	10.27%	9.11%	7.25%	5.88%	4.12%	2.46%
Chicago Cardinals	14.86%	13.87%	14.23%	12.12%	11.65%	10.17%	8.82%	6.46%	4.91%	2.91%
Los Angeles Rams	12.13%	11.19%	13.64%	11.80%	12.67%	10.53%	10.33%	7.82%	6.27%	3.62%
Green Bay Packers	11.78%	11.04%	11.86%	10.98%	12.21%	10.70%	11.01%	8.90%	7.15%	4.37%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.64%	11.75%	11.11%	14.12%	11.29%	12.15%	9.97%	9.14%	6.92%	4.91%
Washington Redskins	3.77%	5.88%	7.96%	9.12%	10.19%	11.09%	11.43%	14.24%	12.40%	13.92%
New York Giants	3.11%	5.68%	6.49%	8.52%	9.17%	11.53%	11.97%	14.39%	13.94%	15.20%
Boston Yanks	1.56%	3.37%	4.30%	6.45%	7.89%	10.74%	12.21%	15.85%	18.10%	19.53%
Detroit Lions	0.80%	1.62%	2.92%	3.45%	5.59%	6.54%	10.54%	13.26%	23.51%	31.77%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	42.54%	57.46%
Pittsburgh Steelers	26.05%	73.95%
Washington Redskins	13.10%	86.90%
New York Giants	11.44%	88.56%
Boston Yanks	6.87%	93.13%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	37.33%	62.67%
Chicago Cardinals	23.70%	76.30%
Los Angeles Rams	18.81%	81.19%
Green Bay Packers	18.20%	81.80%
Detroit Lions	1.96%	98.04%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	37.33%	29.05%
Chicago Cardinals	23.70%	17.63%
Philadelphia Eagles	42.54%	14.33%
Green Bay Packers	18.20%	12.61%
Los Angeles Rams	18.81%	11.86%
Pittsburgh Steelers	26.05%	7.75%
Washington Redskins	13.10%	2.72%
New York Giants	11.44%	1.89%
Boston Yanks	6.87%	1.16%
Detroit Lions	1.96%	1.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Yanks	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Boston Yanks		0.31%	0.19%	0.03%	0.32%	0.31%
Chicago Bears	2.10%						3.99%	11.68%	7.41%	3.87%
Chicago Cardinals	1.23%						2.04%	7.14%	4.73%	2.49%
Detroit Lions	0.09%						0.14%	0.39%	0.24%	0.14%
Green Bay Packers	1.20%						1.78%	4.74%	2.99%	1.90%
Los Angeles Rams	1.09%						1.60%	4.26%	2.93%	1.98%
New York Giants		0.55%	0.39%	0.08%	0.39%	0.48%
Philadelphia Eagles		4.63%	2.99%	0.52%	2.89%	3.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers		2.08%	1.95%	0.22%	1.55%	1.95%
Washington Redskins		0.71%	0.55%	0.11%	0.44%	0.91%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Cardinals	70.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.77%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Cardinals	Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Cardinals		70.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.77%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Cardinals 70.23% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.23%

Philadelphia Eagles 29.77% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.77%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1947-09-29	New York Giants	T 7-7	1450.44	1530.48	50.45%	46.16%	-0.13	0-0
1947-10-05	Detroit Lions	L 7-21	1450.31	1398.70	67.96%	28.65%	-31.55	0-1
1947-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-30	1418.76	1447.47	57.66%	38.95%	-28.66	0-2
1947-10-19	@ New York Giants	W 14-0	1390.10	1495.17	22.79%	73.83%	+34.28	1-2
1947-10-26	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-27	1424.38	1554.02	20.40%	76.23%	-11.62	1-3
1947-11-02	Chicago Bears	L 24-28	1412.76	1589.58	36.83%	59.79%	-9.27	1-4
1947-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-16	1403.49	1568.77	17.27%	79.37%	+32.69	2-4
1947-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-32	1436.18	1566.13	20.37%	76.26%	-14.67	2-5
1947-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-14	1421.51	1580.80	39.21%	57.40%	+18.88	3-5
1947-11-30	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1440.39	1428.60	63.05%	33.56%	+7.33	4-5
1947-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1447.72	1508.99	27.53%	69.09%	-11.03	4-6
1947-12-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-40	1436.69	1396.50	40.53%	56.08%	-26.44	4-7
1947-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-29	1551.48	1507.47	41.06%	55.55%	-15.45	0-1
1947-10-05	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-31	1536.03	1537.55	34.89%	61.72%	-21.55	0-2
1947-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 40-7	1514.48	1540.62	58.01%	38.60%	+27.87	1-2
1947-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 33-24	1542.35	1409.78	76.50%	20.13%	+7.69	2-2
1947-10-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 56-20	1550.04	1487.46	43.68%	52.93%	+39.54	3-2
1947-11-02	@ Boston Yanks	W 28-24	1589.58	1412.76	59.79%	36.83%	+9.27	4-2
1947-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1598.85	1537.41	69.11%	27.51%	+6.04	5-2
1947-11-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 41-21	1604.89	1536.08	44.56%	52.05%	+28.99	6-2
1947-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 49-7	1633.88	1547.05	71.93%	24.69%	+20.31	7-2
1947-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-14	1654.19	1411.03	68.16%	28.46%	+16.12	8-2
1947-12-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-17	1670.31	1484.10	81.03%	15.61%	-17.44	8-3
1947-12-14	Chicago Cardinals	L 21-30	1652.87	1583.39	70.02%	26.60%	-26.06	8-4
1947-09-28	Detroit Lions	W 45-21	1523.74	1412.51	74.45%	22.17%	+13.81	1-0
1947-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 31-7	1537.55	1536.03	61.72%	34.89%	+21.55	2-0
1947-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-10	1559.10	1531.84	38.75%	57.86%	+14.38	3-0
1947-10-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-27	1573.48	1577.93	34.51%	62.10%	-19.46	3-1
1947-10-26	Boston Yanks	W 27-7	1554.02	1424.38	76.23%	20.40%	+11.62	4-1
1947-11-02	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-10	1565.64	1581.14	59.46%	37.15%	+12.37	5-1
1947-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-7	1578.01	1418.43	57.44%	39.17%	+15.56	6-1
1947-11-16	Green Bay Packers	W 21-20	1593.57	1531.38	69.19%	27.43%	+3.47	7-1
1947-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-45	1597.04	1389.83	63.76%	32.85%	-38.77	7-2
1947-11-30	@ New York Giants	L 31-35	1558.27	1373.94	60.79%	35.83%	-15.09	7-3
1947-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-21	1543.18	1579.67	30.47%	66.15%	+40.21	8-3
1947-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 30-21	1583.39	1652.87	26.60%	70.02%	+26.06	9-3
1947-09-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1421.51	1488.95	26.83%	69.79%	-9.00	0-1
1947-09-28	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 21-45	1412.51	1523.74	22.17%	74.45%	-13.81	0-2
1947-10-05	@ Boston Yanks	W 21-7	1398.70	1450.31	28.65%	67.96%	+31.55	1-2
1947-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-27	1430.25	1557.45	43.69%	52.92%	-20.47	1-3
1947-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-33	1409.78	1542.35	20.13%	76.50%	-7.69	1-4
1947-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-34	1402.09	1534.86	20.11%	76.52%	-10.56	1-5
1947-11-02	New York Giants	W 35-7	1391.53	1431.56	56.10%	40.51%	+26.90	2-5
1947-11-09	Chicago Cardinals	L 7-17	1418.43	1578.01	39.17%	57.44%	-15.56	2-6
1947-11-16	Washington Redskins	W 38-21	1402.87	1408.43	60.79%	35.83%	+18.61	3-6
1947-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-28	1421.48	1507.09	24.82%	71.80%	-10.45	3-7
1947-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 14-34	1411.03	1654.19	28.46%	68.16%	-16.12	3-8
1947-12-07	Green Bay Packers	L 14-35	1394.91	1560.83	38.30%	58.31%	-22.06	3-9
1947-09-28	Chicago Bears	W 29-20	1507.47	1551.48	55.55%	41.06%	+15.46	1-0
1947-10-05	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-14	1522.93	1566.36	55.63%	40.98%	+8.91	2-0
1947-10-12	Chicago Cardinals	L 10-14	1531.84	1559.10	57.86%	38.75%	-14.38	2-1
1947-10-19	Washington Redskins	W 27-10	1517.46	1504.86	63.15%	33.46%	+17.40	3-1
1947-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 34-17	1534.86	1402.09	76.52%	20.11%	+10.56	4-1
1947-11-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-18	1545.42	1522.13	64.51%	32.10%	-8.01	4-2
1947-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1537.41	1598.85	27.51%	69.11%	-6.03	4-3
1947-11-16	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 20-21	1531.38	1593.57	27.43%	69.19%	-3.48	4-4
1947-11-23	@ New York Giants	T 24-24	1527.90	1373.43	56.74%	39.87%	-0.51	4-4
1947-11-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-10	1527.39	1517.54	36.40%	60.21%	+33.44	5-4
1947-12-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 35-14	1560.83	1394.91	58.31%	38.30%	+22.07	6-4
1947-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-28	1582.90	1539.45	40.98%	55.63%	-19.24	6-5
1947-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 48-7	1519.74	1497.94	38.00%	58.61%	+46.62	1-0
1947-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1566.36	1522.93	40.98%	55.63%	-8.91	1-1
1947-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-13	1557.45	1430.25	52.92%	43.69%	+20.48	2-1
1947-10-19	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-7	1577.93	1573.48	62.10%	34.51%	+19.45	3-1
1947-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-14	1597.38	1496.08	49.22%	47.39%	-16.24	3-2
1947-11-02	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 10-17	1581.14	1565.64	37.15%	59.46%	-12.37	3-3
1947-11-09	Boston Yanks	L 16-27	1568.77	1403.49	79.37%	17.27%	-32.69	3-4
1947-11-16	Chicago Bears	L 21-41	1536.08	1604.89	52.05%	44.56%	-28.99	3-5
1947-11-23	Detroit Lions	W 28-17	1507.09	1421.48	71.80%	24.82%	+10.45	4-5
1947-11-30	Green Bay Packers	L 10-30	1517.54	1527.39	60.21%	36.40%	-33.44	4-6
1947-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1484.10	1670.31	15.61%	81.03%	+17.43	5-6
1947-12-14	New York Giants	W 34-10	1501.53	1413.80	72.03%	24.60%	+15.30	6-6
1947-09-29	@ Boston Yanks	T 7-7	1530.48	1450.44	46.16%	50.45%	+0.13	0-0
1947-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-23	1530.61	1518.47	36.70%	59.91%	-22.16	0-1
1947-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-28	1508.45	1491.58	37.34%	59.27%	-13.28	0-2
1947-10-19	Boston Yanks	L 0-14	1495.17	1390.10	73.83%	22.79%	-34.29	0-3
1947-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-38	1460.88	1492.80	57.22%	39.39%	-29.32	0-4
1947-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-35	1431.56	1391.53	40.51%	56.10%	-26.91	0-5
1947-11-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-41	1404.65	1544.46	41.91%	54.70%	-21.67	0-6
1947-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-24	1382.98	1537.49	18.17%	78.46%	-9.55	0-7
1947-11-23	Green Bay Packers	T 24-24	1373.43	1527.90	39.87%	56.74%	+0.51	0-7
1947-11-30	Chicago Cardinals	W 35-31	1373.94	1558.27	35.83%	60.79%	+15.09	1-7
1947-12-07	Washington Redskins	W 35-10	1389.03	1421.26	57.18%	39.43%	+24.77	2-7
1947-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-34	1413.80	1501.53	24.60%	72.03%	-15.30	2-8
1947-09-28	Washington Redskins	W 45-42	1511.26	1494.93	63.63%	32.98%	+7.21	1-0
1947-10-05	New York Giants	W 23-0	1518.47	1530.61	59.91%	36.70%	+22.15	2-0
1947-10-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-40	1540.62	1514.48	38.60%	58.01%	-27.87	2-1
1947-10-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-35	1512.75	1476.13	40.04%	56.57%	-16.67	2-2
1947-10-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 14-7	1496.08	1597.38	47.39%	49.22%	+16.25	3-2
1947-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-14	1512.33	1447.92	43.93%	52.67%	+32.13	4-2
1947-11-09	@ New York Giants	W 41-24	1544.46	1404.65	54.70%	41.91%	+21.67	5-2
1947-11-16	Boston Yanks	W 32-0	1566.13	1436.18	76.26%	20.37%	+14.67	6-2
1947-11-23	@ Boston Yanks	L 14-21	1580.80	1421.51	57.40%	39.21%	-18.88	6-3
1947-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-0	1561.92	1526.73	65.99%	30.63%	+17.75	7-3
1947-12-07	Chicago Cardinals	L 21-45	1579.67	1543.18	66.15%	30.47%	-40.22	7-4
1947-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 28-14	1539.45	1582.90	55.63%	40.98%	+19.25	8-4
1947-09-21	Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1488.95	1421.51	69.79%	26.83%	+8.99	1-0
1947-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-48	1497.94	1519.74	58.61%	38.00%	-46.62	1-1
1947-10-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 26-27	1451.32	1487.73	30.48%	66.14%	-3.85	1-2
1947-10-12	@ Boston Yanks	W 30-14	1447.47	1418.76	38.95%	57.66%	+28.66	2-2
1947-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-24	1476.13	1512.75	56.57%	40.04%	+16.67	3-2
1947-10-26	@ New York Giants	W 38-21	1492.80	1460.88	39.39%	57.22%	+29.33	4-2
1947-11-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 18-17	1522.13	1545.42	32.10%	64.51%	+8.00	5-2
1947-11-09	Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1530.13	1415.79	74.76%	21.87%	+7.36	6-2
1947-11-16	New York Giants	W 24-7	1537.49	1382.98	78.46%	18.17%	+9.56	7-2
1947-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-49	1547.05	1633.88	24.69%	71.93%	-20.32	7-3
1947-11-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-21	1526.73	1561.92	30.63%	65.99%	-17.74	7-4
1947-12-07	Boston Yanks	W 17-7	1508.99	1447.72	69.09%	27.53%	+11.03	8-4
1947-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 42-45	1494.93	1511.26	32.98%	63.63%	-7.20	0-1
1947-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-26	1487.73	1451.32	66.14%	30.48%	+3.85	1-1
1947-10-12	New York Giants	W 28-20	1491.58	1508.45	59.27%	37.34%	+13.28	2-1
1947-10-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-27	1504.86	1517.46	33.46%	63.15%	-17.40	2-2
1947-10-26	Chicago Bears	L 20-56	1487.46	1550.04	52.93%	43.68%	-39.54	2-3
1947-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-38	1447.92	1512.33	52.67%	43.93%	-32.13	2-4
1947-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-21	1415.79	1530.13	21.87%	74.76%	-7.36	2-5
1947-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-38	1408.43	1402.87	35.83%	60.79%	-18.60	2-6
1947-11-23	Chicago Cardinals	W 45-21	1389.83	1597.04	32.85%	63.76%	+38.77	3-6
1947-11-30	@ Boston Yanks	L 24-27	1428.60	1440.39	33.56%	63.05%	-7.34	3-7
1947-12-07	@ New York Giants	L 10-35	1421.26	1389.03	39.43%	57.18%	-24.76	3-8
1947-12-14	Boston Yanks	W 40-13	1396.50	1436.69	56.08%	40.53%	+26.43	4-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1947-12-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-21	1609.45	1590.77	65.79%	34.21%	+10.92	1-0
1947-12-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-0	1558.70	1520.02	41.97%	58.03%	+32.07	1-0
1947-12-28	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 21-28	1590.77	1609.45	34.21%	65.79%	-10.92	1-1
1947-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-21	1520.02	1558.70	58.03%	41.97%	-32.07	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1947-12-07	15.61%	Los Angeles Rams	1484.10	17	@ Chicago Bears	1670.31	14
2	1947-11-09	17.27%	Boston Yanks	1403.49	27	@ Los Angeles Rams	1568.77	16
3	1947-10-19	22.79%	Boston Yanks	1390.10	14	@ New York Giants	1495.17	0
4	1947-12-14	26.60%	Chicago Cardinals	1583.39	30	@ Chicago Bears	1652.87	21
5	1947-10-05	28.65%	Detroit Lions	1398.70	21	@ Boston Yanks	1450.31	7
6	1947-12-07	30.47%	Chicago Cardinals	1543.18	45	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1579.67	21
7	1947-11-02	32.10%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1522.13	18	@ Green Bay Packers	1545.42	17
8	1947-11-23	32.85%	@ Washington Redskins	1389.83	45	Chicago Cardinals	1597.04	21
9	1947-11-30	35.83%	@ New York Giants	1373.94	35	Chicago Cardinals	1558.27	31
10	1947-11-30	36.40%	Green Bay Packers	1527.39	30	@ Los Angeles Rams	1517.54	10
11	1947-09-29	38.00%	Los Angeles Rams	1519.74	48	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1497.94	7
12	1947-10-12	38.75%	Chicago Cardinals	1559.10	14	@ Green Bay Packers	1531.84	10
13	1947-10-12	38.95%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1447.47	30	@ Boston Yanks	1418.76	14
14	1947-11-23	39.21%	@ Boston Yanks	1421.51	21	Philadelphia Eagles	1580.80	14
15	1947-10-26	39.39%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1492.80	38	@ New York Giants	1460.88	21
16	1947-12-21 *	41.97%	Philadelphia Eagles	1558.70	21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1520.02	0
17	1947-10-26	43.68%	Chicago Bears	1550.04	56	@ Washington Redskins	1487.46	20
18	1947-11-02	43.93%	Philadelphia Eagles	1512.33	38	@ Washington Redskins	1447.92	14
19	1947-11-16	44.56%	Chicago Bears	1604.89	41	@ Los Angeles Rams	1536.08	21
20	1947-10-26	47.39%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1496.08	14	Los Angeles Rams	1597.38	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1947-09-29	46.62	Los Angeles Rams	48	1519.74	38.00%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1497.94	58.61%
2	1947-12-07	40.22	Chicago Cardinals	45	1543.18	30.47%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	21	1579.67	66.15%
3	1947-10-26	39.54	Chicago Bears	56	1550.04	43.68%	@ Washington Redskins	20	1487.46	52.93%
4	1947-11-23	38.77	@ Washington Redskins	45	1389.83	32.85%	Chicago Cardinals	21	1597.04	63.76%
5	1947-10-19	34.29	Boston Yanks	14	1390.10	22.79%	@ New York Giants	0	1495.17	73.83%
6	1947-11-30	33.44	Green Bay Packers	30	1527.39	36.40%	@ Los Angeles Rams	10	1517.54	60.21%
7	1947-11-09	32.69	Boston Yanks	27	1403.49	17.27%	@ Los Angeles Rams	16	1568.77	79.37%
8	1947-11-02	32.13	Philadelphia Eagles	38	1512.33	43.93%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1447.92	52.67%
9	1947-12-21 *	32.07	Philadelphia Eagles	21	1558.70	41.97%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1520.02	58.03%
10	1947-10-05	31.55	Detroit Lions	21	1398.70	28.65%	@ Boston Yanks	7	1450.31	67.96%
11	1947-10-26	29.33	Pittsburgh Steelers	38	1492.80	39.39%	@ New York Giants	21	1460.88	57.22%
12	1947-11-16	28.99	Chicago Bears	41	1604.89	44.56%	@ Los Angeles Rams	21	1536.08	52.05%
13	1947-10-12	28.66	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	1447.47	38.95%	@ Boston Yanks	14	1418.76	57.66%
14	1947-10-12	27.87	@ Chicago Bears	40	1514.48	58.01%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1540.62	38.60%
15	1947-11-02	26.91	@ Detroit Lions	35	1391.53	56.10%	New York Giants	7	1431.56	40.51%
16	1947-12-14	26.44	@ Washington Redskins	40	1396.50	56.08%	Boston Yanks	13	1436.69	40.53%
17	1947-12-14	26.06	Chicago Cardinals	30	1583.39	26.60%	@ Chicago Bears	21	1652.87	70.02%
18	1947-12-07	24.77	@ New York Giants	35	1389.03	57.18%	Washington Redskins	10	1421.26	39.43%
19	1947-10-05	22.16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	23	1518.47	59.91%	New York Giants	0	1530.61	36.70%
20	1947-12-07	22.07	Green Bay Packers	35	1560.83	58.31%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1394.91	38.30%
21	1947-11-09	21.67	Philadelphia Eagles	41	1544.46	54.70%	@ New York Giants	24	1404.65	41.91%
22	1947-10-05	21.55	@ Chicago Cardinals	31	1537.55	61.72%	Chicago Bears	7	1536.03	34.89%
23	1947-10-12	20.48	Los Angeles Rams	27	1557.45	52.92%	@ Detroit Lions	13	1430.25	43.69%
24	1947-11-23	20.32	@ Chicago Bears	49	1633.88	71.93%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1547.05	24.69%
25	1947-10-19	19.46	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1577.93	62.10%	Chicago Cardinals	7	1573.48	34.51%