1946 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

7th Title

Last Title: 1943

Runner-Up

New York Giants

8th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1944

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.02 wins above expected

8 wins · 6.48 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Detroit Lions

3.32 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.32 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	7	3	1	.682	—	236	162	+74	6.29	+1.21
2	Philadelphia Eagles	6	5	0	.545	1.5	231	220	+11	5.79	+0.21
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	5	1	.500	2	136	117	+19	5.46	+0.04
4	Washington Redskins	5	5	1	.500	2	171	191	-20	6.17	-0.67
5	Boston Yanks	2	8	1	.227	5	189	273	-84	3.93	-1.43

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	8	2	1	.773	—	289	193	+96	6.48	+2.02
2	Los Angeles Rams	6	4	1	.591	2	277	257	+20	5.91	+0.59
3	Chicago Cardinals	6	5	0	.545	2.5	260	198	+62	4.84	+1.16
4	Green Bay Packers	6	5	0	.545	2.5	148	158	-10	5.81	+0.19
5	Detroit Lions	1	10	0	.091	7.5	142	310	-168	4.32	-3.32

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 24

New York Giants 14

Dec 15

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1595	8.5	6.48	+2.02	93.78%	0	3	5	6	7	9	11
New York Giants	East	1588	7.5	6.29	+1.21	83.84%	0	3	5	6	7	8	11
Chicago Cardinals	West	1547	6	4.84	+1.16	89.48%	0	2	3	4	6	7	10
Los Angeles Rams	West	1546	6.5	5.91	+0.59	73.13%	0	3	4	6	7	8	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1526	6	5.79	+0.21	74.70%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1519	6	5.81	+0.19	74.73%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Washington Redskins	East	1491	5.5	6.17	-0.67	43.11%	1	3	5	6	7	8	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1476	5.5	5.46	+0.04	60.36%	0	2	4	5	6	8	10
Boston Yanks	East	1388	2.5	3.93	-1.43	25.30%	0	1	2	3	5	6	11
Detroit Lions	West	1325	1	4.32	-3.32	4.89%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Boston Yanks	—	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Boston Yanks	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.82%	2.73%	0.91%	0.91%	—	0.91%	7.27%
7–13	1.82%	7.27%	7.27%	0.91%	3.64%	—	—	20.91%
14–20	2.73%	7.27%	9.09%	5.45%	2.73%	4.55%	0.91%	32.73%
21–27	0.91%	0.91%	5.45%	1.82%	2.73%	0.91%	1.82%	14.55%
28–34	0.91%	3.64%	2.73%	2.73%	3.64%	0.91%	—	14.55%
35–41	—	—	4.55%	0.91%	0.91%	—	—	6.36%
42+	0.91%	—	0.91%	1.82%	—	—	—	3.64%
Total	7.27%	20.91%	32.73%	14.55%	14.55%	6.36%	3.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.90	18.90	+0.00
SD	11.13	11.13	15.42
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	49	49	+36
Min	0	0	-36

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	9.09%	36.36%	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Boston Yanks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.18	24.82	-7.64
SD	12.80	12.06	16.92
CV	0.75	0.49	—
Max	40	49	+24
Min	0	10	-26

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	36.36%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.27	17.55	+8.73
SD	12.91	9.25	14.40
CV	0.49	0.53	—
Max	45	35	+36
Min	0	6	-14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	9.09%	54.55%	—	27.27%	—	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.64	18.00	+5.64
SD	10.98	8.54	14.79
CV	0.46	0.47	—
Max	36	34	+24
Min	7	6	-17

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	27.27%	—	54.55%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.91	28.18	-15.27
SD	6.79	14.44	13.05
CV	0.53	0.51	—
Max	24	45	+10
Min	0	7	-36

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	36.36%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	54.55%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	54.55%	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.45	14.36	-0.91
SD	5.59	11.99	13.99
CV	0.42	0.83	—
Max	20	38	+13
Min	6	0	-23

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	27.27%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	45.45%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.18	23.36	+1.82
SD	10.14	8.37	15.83
CV	0.40	0.36	—
Max	41	40	+21
Min	10	14	-24

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	18.18%	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
28–34	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	—	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.45	14.73	+6.73
SD	10.71	12.54	14.51
CV	0.50	0.85	—
Max	45	31	+31
Min	7	0	-10

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
21–27	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	—	18.18%	36.36%	36.36%	—	—	9.09%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	20.00	+1.00
SD	13.85	10.46	16.62
CV	0.66	0.52	—
Max	49	45	+26
Min	7	7	-28

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	18.18%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	63.64%	36.36%	—	—	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.36	10.64	+1.73
SD	8.33	4.61	10.48
CV	0.67	0.43	—
Max	33	17	+26
Min	0	7	-10

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	9.09%	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	9.09%	54.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.55	17.36	-1.82
SD	8.31	7.62	12.80
CV	0.53	0.44	—
Max	27	31	+17
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 11

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	8.5	6.48	+2.02
2	New York Giants	7.5	6.29	+1.21
3	Chicago Cardinals	6	4.84	+1.16
4	Los Angeles Rams	6.5	5.91	+0.59
5	Philadelphia Eagles	6	5.79	+0.21

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	1	4.32	-3.32
2	Boston Yanks	2.5	3.93	-1.43
3	Washington Redskins	5.5	6.17	-0.67
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5.5	5.46	+0.04
5	Green Bay Packers	6	5.81	+0.19

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	4	Nov 3 – Nov 24	1 in 10
2	Green Bay Packers	3	Oct 13 – Oct 27	1 in 10
3	Boston Yanks	2	Nov 24 – Nov 28	1 in 9
4	Los Angeles Rams	2	Dec 1 – Dec 8	1 in 8
5	Washington Redskins	3	Oct 6 – Oct 20	1 in 6

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	6	Sep 30 – Nov 3	1 in 53
2	Boston Yanks	7	Oct 1 – Nov 10	1 in 36
3	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Nov 10 – Nov 24	1 in 11
4	Washington Redskins	2	Oct 27 – Nov 3	1 in 6
5	Green Bay Packers	2	Sep 29 – Oct 6	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	31.51%	25.45%	20.49%	14.99%	7.56%
Washington Redskins	28.07%	24.54%	21.65%	17.17%	8.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	21.28%	22.98%	22.24%	20.52%	12.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.00%	20.37%	23.43%	23.86%	16.34%
Boston Yanks	3.14%	6.66%	12.19%	23.46%	54.55%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	37.63%	26.52%	17.81%	11.75%	6.29%
Los Angeles Rams	24.66%	25.08%	22.12%	16.95%	11.19%
Green Bay Packers	22.21%	22.44%	23.58%	18.97%	12.80%
Chicago Cardinals	9.96%	15.75%	19.78%	26.32%	28.19%
Detroit Lions	5.54%	10.21%	16.71%	26.01%	41.53%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	20.32%	16.57%	13.76%	12.56%	9.92%	8.49%	6.87%	5.52%	3.72%	2.27%
New York Giants	17.47%	14.90%	13.22%	12.21%	10.80%	9.55%	7.78%	6.64%	4.73%	2.70%
Washington Redskins	14.80%	14.23%	13.04%	11.56%	11.13%	10.47%	8.96%	7.36%	5.12%	3.33%
Los Angeles Rams	11.56%	12.30%	12.28%	12.13%	12.07%	10.36%	9.54%	8.29%	7.04%	4.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.03%	10.86%	11.87%	11.47%	11.58%	10.64%	10.47%	9.25%	7.64%	5.19%
Green Bay Packers	10.40%	11.66%	11.35%	11.46%	11.01%	11.66%	9.93%	9.65%	8.05%	4.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.68%	9.32%	10.16%	10.20%	11.25%	11.85%	11.38%	10.89%	9.31%	7.96%
Chicago Cardinals	3.80%	5.28%	7.04%	8.43%	9.36%	10.69%	12.68%	13.52%	14.84%	14.36%
Detroit Lions	1.79%	3.10%	4.34%	5.87%	7.22%	9.26%	11.85%	15.06%	18.98%	22.53%
Boston Yanks	1.15%	1.78%	2.94%	4.11%	5.66%	7.03%	10.54%	13.82%	20.57%	32.40%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	31.51%	68.49%
Washington Redskins	28.07%	71.93%
Philadelphia Eagles	21.28%	78.72%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.00%	84.00%
Boston Yanks	3.14%	96.86%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	37.63%	62.37%
Los Angeles Rams	24.66%	75.34%
Green Bay Packers	22.21%	77.79%
Chicago Cardinals	9.96%	90.04%
Detroit Lions	5.54%	94.46%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	37.63%	21.49%
New York Giants	31.51%	19.17%
Washington Redskins	28.07%	12.83%
Los Angeles Rams	24.66%	12.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	21.28%	10.38%
Green Bay Packers	22.21%	9.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.00%	6.78%
Chicago Cardinals	9.96%	4.74%
Detroit Lions	5.54%	1.20%
Boston Yanks	3.14%	1.13%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Yanks	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Boston Yanks		0.30%	0.06%	0.08%	0.37%	0.32%
Chicago Bears	0.99%						5.05%	4.81%	4.42%	6.22%
Chicago Cardinals	0.17%						1.08%	1.20%	0.69%	1.60%
Detroit Lions	0.05%						0.26%	0.32%	0.20%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	0.42%						2.89%	2.14%	1.68%	2.78%
Los Angeles Rams	0.38%						3.06%	2.43%	2.23%	4.27%
New York Giants		5.84%	1.88%	1.96%	5.06%	4.43%
Philadelphia Eagles		3.22%	1.35%	1.02%	2.49%	2.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers		2.53%	0.64%	0.38%	1.42%	1.81%
Washington Redskins		4.25%	1.29%	0.90%	2.96%	3.43%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	52.72%
Chicago Bears	47.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New York Giants
Chicago Bears		47.28%
New York Giants	52.72%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New York Giants 52.72% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.72%

Chicago Bears 47.28% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.28%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1946-10-01	New York Giants	L 0-17	1466.85	1501.91	45.09%	47.89%	-27.81	0-1
1946-10-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-49	1439.04	1554.32	27.84%	65.21%	-20.95	0-2
1946-10-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-16	1418.09	1469.54	35.80%	57.21%	-16.29	0-3
1946-10-20	Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1401.80	1551.53	29.75%	63.28%	-12.89	0-4
1946-10-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-33	1388.91	1466.68	39.08%	53.91%	-30.08	0-5
1946-11-03	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-28	1358.83	1503.92	30.31%	62.72%	-17.36	0-6
1946-11-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1341.47	1528.31	20.35%	72.77%	-5.47	0-7
1946-11-17	@ New York Giants	T 28-28	1336.00	1573.92	16.01%	77.19%	+2.22	0-7
1946-11-24	Los Angeles Rams	W 40-21	1338.22	1526.61	25.31%	67.75%	+43.49	1-7
1946-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-10	1381.71	1375.64	43.74%	49.25%	+35.88	2-7
1946-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-40	1417.59	1495.92	39.00%	53.99%	-30.03	2-8
1946-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-7	1494.81	1524.88	38.68%	54.31%	+38.54	1-0
1946-10-06	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-17	1533.35	1462.15	53.00%	39.99%	+24.86	2-0
1946-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	T 28-28	1558.21	1526.31	54.56%	38.43%	-0.57	2-0
1946-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-14	1557.64	1542.74	52.21%	40.78%	+16.25	3-0
1946-10-27	@ New York Giants	L 0-14	1573.89	1531.04	49.00%	43.98%	-27.28	3-1
1946-11-03	Green Bay Packers	W 10-7	1546.61	1531.66	52.22%	40.77%	+10.64	4-1
1946-11-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-21	1557.25	1533.23	46.31%	46.68%	+17.06	5-1
1946-11-17	Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1574.31	1533.78	55.74%	37.26%	+11.28	6-1
1946-11-24	Detroit Lions	W 42-6	1585.59	1394.23	73.19%	19.94%	+18.59	7-1
1946-12-01	Chicago Cardinals	L 28-35	1604.18	1522.83	61.09%	31.93%	-23.83	7-2
1946-12-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 45-24	1580.35	1339.76	73.06%	20.06%	+14.28	8-2
1946-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1441.43	1464.21	39.68%	53.31%	-15.84	0-1
1946-09-30	Detroit Lions	W 34-14	1425.59	1513.41	37.71%	55.29%	+36.56	1-1
1946-10-06	Chicago Bears	L 17-34	1462.15	1533.35	39.99%	53.00%	-24.85	1-2
1946-10-13	@ Detroit Lions	W 36-14	1437.30	1471.35	38.14%	54.86%	+38.06	2-2
1946-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 24-28	1475.36	1519.92	36.72%	56.28%	-11.13	2-3
1946-10-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-10	1464.23	1548.20	38.23%	54.76%	+39.69	3-3
1946-11-03	@ Boston Yanks	W 28-14	1503.92	1358.83	62.72%	30.31%	+17.35	4-3
1946-11-10	Green Bay Packers	L 7-19	1521.27	1521.03	50.14%	42.84%	-25.81	4-4
1946-11-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-17	1495.46	1516.17	39.97%	53.02%	-10.43	4-5
1946-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-6	1485.03	1561.11	32.60%	60.42%	+37.80	5-5
1946-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-28	1522.83	1604.18	31.93%	61.09%	+23.82	6-5
1946-09-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 14-34	1513.41	1425.59	55.29%	37.71%	-36.56	0-1
1946-10-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-17	1476.85	1525.03	36.23%	56.77%	-5.50	0-2
1946-10-13	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-36	1471.35	1437.30	54.86%	38.14%	-38.06	0-3
1946-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-35	1433.29	1526.88	30.42%	62.61%	-21.32	0-4
1946-10-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-10	1411.97	1524.16	28.20%	64.85%	-7.50	0-5
1946-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-41	1404.47	1508.52	35.53%	57.47%	-24.72	0-6
1946-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-7	1379.75	1516.50	31.34%	61.68%	+28.76	1-6
1946-11-17	Green Bay Packers	L 0-9	1408.51	1546.83	31.14%	61.88%	-14.28	1-7
1946-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-42	1394.23	1585.59	19.94%	73.19%	-18.59	1-8
1946-11-28	Boston Yanks	L 10-34	1375.64	1381.71	49.25%	43.74%	-35.88	1-9
1946-12-08	Chicago Bears	L 24-45	1339.76	1580.35	20.06%	73.06%	-14.28	1-10
1946-09-29	Chicago Bears	L 7-30	1524.88	1494.81	54.31%	38.68%	-38.54	0-1
1946-10-06	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-21	1486.34	1512.46	46.37%	46.61%	-13.85	0-2
1946-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-7	1472.49	1575.27	29.31%	63.73%	+32.52	1-2
1946-10-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-7	1505.01	1485.83	52.81%	40.18%	+19.15	2-2
1946-10-27	Detroit Lions	W 10-7	1524.16	1411.97	64.85%	28.20%	+7.50	3-2
1946-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-10	1531.66	1546.61	40.77%	52.22%	-10.63	3-3
1946-11-10	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 19-7	1521.03	1521.27	42.84%	50.14%	+25.80	4-3
1946-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 9-0	1546.83	1408.51	61.88%	31.14%	+14.28	5-3
1946-11-24	Chicago Cardinals	L 6-24	1561.11	1485.03	60.42%	32.60%	-37.80	5-4
1946-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-7	1523.31	1552.56	38.79%	54.20%	+28.92	6-4
1946-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-38	1552.23	1512.76	48.52%	44.46%	-33.10	6-5
1946-09-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-25	1537.72	1529.06	51.33%	41.65%	-25.26	0-1
1946-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-17	1512.46	1486.34	46.61%	46.37%	+13.85	1-1
1946-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	T 28-28	1526.31	1558.21	38.43%	54.56%	+0.57	1-1
1946-10-20	Detroit Lions	W 35-14	1526.88	1433.29	62.61%	30.42%	+21.32	2-1
1946-10-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 10-34	1548.20	1464.23	54.76%	38.23%	-39.68	2-2
1946-11-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-20	1508.52	1404.47	57.47%	35.53%	+24.71	3-2
1946-11-10	Chicago Bears	L 21-27	1533.23	1557.25	46.68%	46.31%	-17.06	3-3
1946-11-17	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-14	1516.17	1495.46	53.02%	39.97%	+10.44	4-3
1946-11-24	@ Boston Yanks	L 21-40	1526.61	1338.22	67.75%	25.31%	-43.49	4-4
1946-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 31-21	1483.12	1585.08	29.41%	63.63%	+29.64	5-4
1946-12-08	Green Bay Packers	W 38-17	1512.76	1552.23	44.46%	48.52%	+33.10	6-4
1946-10-01	@ Boston Yanks	W 17-0	1501.91	1466.85	47.89%	45.09%	+27.81	1-0
1946-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1529.72	1480.74	49.88%	43.11%	+11.20	2-0
1946-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1540.92	1530.52	44.35%	48.63%	-21.00	2-1
1946-10-20	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-24	1519.92	1475.36	56.28%	36.72%	+11.12	3-1
1946-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 14-0	1531.04	1573.89	43.98%	49.00%	+27.28	4-1
1946-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1558.32	1542.88	45.08%	47.91%	-21.32	4-2
1946-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-17	1537.00	1564.20	46.22%	46.76%	+36.92	5-2
1946-11-17	Boston Yanks	T 28-28	1573.92	1336.00	77.19%	16.01%	-2.22	5-2
1946-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 7-0	1571.70	1500.26	59.82%	33.19%	+13.38	6-2
1946-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-31	1585.08	1483.12	63.63%	29.41%	-29.65	6-3
1946-12-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-0	1555.43	1523.64	54.55%	38.45%	+32.35	7-3
1946-09-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 25-14	1529.06	1537.72	41.65%	51.33%	+25.26	1-0
1946-10-06	Boston Yanks	W 49-25	1554.32	1439.04	65.21%	27.84%	+20.95	2-0
1946-10-13	Green Bay Packers	L 7-19	1575.27	1472.49	63.73%	29.31%	-32.53	2-1
1946-10-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-21	1542.74	1557.64	40.78%	52.21%	-16.24	2-2
1946-10-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 28-24	1526.50	1564.41	37.61%	55.38%	+16.38	3-2
1946-11-03	New York Giants	W 24-14	1542.88	1558.32	47.91%	45.08%	+21.32	4-2
1946-11-10	@ New York Giants	L 17-45	1564.20	1537.00	46.76%	46.22%	-36.92	4-3
1946-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-10	1527.28	1487.74	48.53%	44.45%	-12.52	4-4
1946-11-24	Washington Redskins	L 10-27	1514.76	1522.50	49.01%	43.97%	-30.06	4-5
1946-12-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1484.70	1486.88	49.80%	43.18%	+11.22	5-5
1946-12-08	@ Boston Yanks	W 40-14	1495.92	1417.59	53.99%	39.00%	+30.03	6-5
1946-09-20	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-7	1464.21	1441.43	53.31%	39.68%	+15.83	1-0
1946-09-29	@ Washington Redskins	T 14-14	1480.04	1525.73	36.56%	56.43%	+0.70	1-0
1946-10-06	New York Giants	L 14-17	1480.74	1529.72	43.11%	49.88%	-11.20	1-1
1946-10-13	Boston Yanks	W 16-7	1469.54	1418.09	57.21%	35.80%	+16.29	2-1
1946-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-17	1485.83	1505.01	40.18%	52.81%	-19.15	2-2
1946-10-27	@ Boston Yanks	W 33-7	1466.68	1388.91	53.91%	39.08%	+30.09	3-2
1946-11-03	Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1496.77	1548.04	42.78%	50.20%	+19.73	4-2
1946-11-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1516.50	1379.75	61.68%	31.34%	-28.76	4-3
1946-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-7	1487.74	1527.28	44.45%	48.53%	+12.52	5-3
1946-11-24	@ New York Giants	L 0-7	1500.26	1571.70	33.19%	59.82%	-13.38	5-4
1946-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1486.88	1484.70	43.18%	49.80%	-11.22	5-5
1946-09-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 14-14	1525.73	1480.04	56.43%	36.56%	-0.70	0-0
1946-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 17-16	1525.03	1476.85	56.77%	36.23%	+5.49	1-0
1946-10-13	New York Giants	W 24-14	1530.52	1540.92	48.63%	44.35%	+21.01	2-0
1946-10-20	@ Boston Yanks	W 14-6	1551.53	1401.80	63.28%	29.75%	+12.88	3-0
1946-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1564.41	1526.50	55.38%	37.61%	-16.37	3-1
1946-11-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1548.04	1496.77	50.20%	42.78%	-19.73	3-2
1946-11-10	Boston Yanks	W 17-14	1528.31	1341.47	72.77%	20.35%	+5.47	4-2
1946-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-24	1533.78	1574.31	37.26%	55.74%	-11.28	4-3
1946-11-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1522.50	1514.76	43.97%	49.01%	+30.06	5-3
1946-12-01	Green Bay Packers	L 7-20	1552.56	1523.31	54.20%	38.79%	-28.92	5-4
1946-12-08	@ New York Giants	L 0-31	1523.64	1555.43	38.45%	54.55%	-32.35	5-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1946-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 24-14	1594.63	1587.78	47.35%	52.65%	+23.11	1-0
1946-12-15	Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1587.78	1594.63	52.65%	47.35%	-23.11	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1946-11-24	25.31%	@ Boston Yanks	1338.22	40	Los Angeles Rams	1526.61	21
2	1946-10-13	29.31%	Green Bay Packers	1472.49	19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1575.27	7
3	1946-12-01	29.41%	Los Angeles Rams	1483.12	31	@ New York Giants	1585.08	21
4	1946-11-10	31.34%	@ Detroit Lions	1379.75	17	Pittsburgh Steelers	1516.50	7
5	1946-12-01	31.93%	Chicago Cardinals	1522.83	35	@ Chicago Bears	1604.18	28
6	1946-11-24	32.60%	Chicago Cardinals	1485.03	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1561.11	6
7	1946-10-27	37.61%	Philadelphia Eagles	1526.50	28	@ Washington Redskins	1564.41	24
8	1946-09-30	37.71%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1425.59	34	Detroit Lions	1513.41	14
9	1946-10-13	38.14%	Chicago Cardinals	1437.30	36	@ Detroit Lions	1471.35	14
10	1946-10-27	38.23%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1464.23	34	Los Angeles Rams	1548.20	10
11	1946-09-29	38.68%	Chicago Bears	1494.81	30	@ Green Bay Packers	1524.88	7
12	1946-12-01	38.79%	Green Bay Packers	1523.31	20	@ Washington Redskins	1552.56	7
13	1946-09-29	41.65%	Philadelphia Eagles	1529.06	25	@ Los Angeles Rams	1537.72	14
14	1946-11-03	42.78%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1496.77	14	Washington Redskins	1548.04	7
15	1946-11-10	42.84%	Green Bay Packers	1521.03	19	@ Chicago Cardinals	1521.27	7
16	1946-11-28	43.74%	Boston Yanks	1381.71	34	@ Detroit Lions	1375.64	10
17	1946-11-24	43.97%	Washington Redskins	1522.50	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1514.76	10
18	1946-10-27	43.98%	@ New York Giants	1531.04	14	Chicago Bears	1573.89	0
19	1946-11-17	44.45%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1487.74	10	Philadelphia Eagles	1527.28	7
20	1946-12-08	44.46%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1512.76	38	Green Bay Packers	1552.23	17
21	1946-11-10	46.22%	@ New York Giants	1537.00	45	Philadelphia Eagles	1564.20	17
22	1946-11-10	46.31%	Chicago Bears	1557.25	27	@ Los Angeles Rams	1533.23	21
23	1946-12-15 *	47.35%	Chicago Bears	1594.63	24	@ New York Giants	1587.78	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1946-11-24	43.49	@ Boston Yanks	40	1338.22	25.31%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1526.61	67.75%
2	1946-10-27	39.69	@ Chicago Cardinals	34	1464.23	38.23%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1548.20	54.76%
3	1946-09-29	38.54	Chicago Bears	30	1494.81	38.68%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1524.88	54.31%
4	1946-10-13	38.06	Chicago Cardinals	36	1437.30	38.14%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1471.35	54.86%
5	1946-11-24	37.80	Chicago Cardinals	24	1485.03	32.60%	@ Green Bay Packers	6	1561.11	60.42%
6	1946-11-10	36.92	@ New York Giants	45	1537.00	46.22%	Philadelphia Eagles	17	1564.20	46.76%
7	1946-09-30	36.56	@ Chicago Cardinals	34	1425.59	37.71%	Detroit Lions	14	1513.41	55.29%
8	1946-11-28	35.88	Boston Yanks	34	1381.71	43.74%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1375.64	49.25%
9	1946-12-08	33.10	@ Los Angeles Rams	38	1512.76	44.46%	Green Bay Packers	17	1552.23	48.52%
10	1946-10-13	32.53	Green Bay Packers	19	1472.49	29.31%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1575.27	63.73%
11	1946-12-08	32.35	@ New York Giants	31	1555.43	54.55%	Washington Redskins	0	1523.64	38.45%
12	1946-10-27	30.09	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	1466.68	53.91%	@ Boston Yanks	7	1388.91	39.08%
13	1946-11-24	30.06	Washington Redskins	27	1522.50	43.97%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1514.76	49.01%
14	1946-12-08	30.03	Philadelphia Eagles	40	1495.92	53.99%	@ Boston Yanks	14	1417.59	39.00%
15	1946-12-01	29.65	Los Angeles Rams	31	1483.12	29.41%	@ New York Giants	21	1585.08	63.63%
16	1946-12-01	28.92	Green Bay Packers	20	1523.31	38.79%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1552.56	54.20%
17	1946-11-10	28.76	@ Detroit Lions	17	1379.75	31.34%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1516.50	61.68%
18	1946-10-01	27.81	New York Giants	17	1501.91	47.89%	@ Boston Yanks	0	1466.85	45.09%
19	1946-10-27	27.28	@ New York Giants	14	1531.04	43.98%	Chicago Bears	0	1573.89	49.00%
20	1946-11-10	25.81	Green Bay Packers	19	1521.03	42.84%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1521.27	50.14%
21	1946-09-29	25.26	Philadelphia Eagles	25	1529.06	41.65%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1537.72	51.33%
22	1946-10-06	24.86	Chicago Bears	34	1533.35	53.00%	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1462.15	39.99%
23	1946-11-03	24.72	Los Angeles Rams	41	1508.52	57.47%	@ Detroit Lions	20	1404.47	35.53%
24	1946-12-01	23.83	Chicago Cardinals	35	1522.83	31.93%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1604.18	61.09%
25	1946-12-15 *	23.11	Chicago Bears	24	1594.63	47.35%	@ New York Giants	14	1587.78	52.65%