1945 NFL Season
50 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Cleveland Rams
1st Title
Runner-Up
Washington Redskins
6th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1943
Biggest Overachiever
Cleveland Rams
3.27 wins above expected
9 wins · 5.73 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Pittsburgh Steelers
2.20 wins below expected
2 wins · 4.20 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Redskins Division | 8 | 2 | 0 | .800 | — | 209 | 121 | +88 | 6.37 | +1.63 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 3 | 0 | .700 | 1 | 272 | 133 | +139 | 6.16 | +0.84 |
| 3 | Boston Yanks | 3 | 6 | 1 | .350 | 4.5 | 123 | 211 | -88 | 3.21 | +0.29 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 3 | 6 | 1 | .350 | 4.5 | 179 | 198 | -19 | 5.29 | -1.79 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | 6 | 79 | 220 | -141 | 4.20 | -2.20 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Rams Division | 9 | 1 | 0 | .900 | — | 244 | 136 | +108 | 5.73 | +3.27 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 3 | 0 | .700 | 2 | 195 | 194 | +1 | 5.72 | +1.28 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 4 | 0 | .600 | 3 | 258 | 173 | +85 | 6.26 | -0.26 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 3 | 7 | 0 | .300 | 6 | 192 | 235 | -43 | 4.98 | -1.98 |
| 5 | Chicago Cardinals | 1 | 9 | 0 | .100 | 8 | 98 | 228 | -130 | 2.08 | -1.08 |
Playoff Bracket
NFL Championship Game
Cleveland Rams
15
Washington Redskins
14
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Rams | West | 1646 | 9 | 5.73 | +3.27 | 99.80% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1616 | 7 | 6.16 | +0.84 | 84.34% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1608 | 8 | 6.37 | +1.63 | 95.26% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1600 | 6 | 6.26 | -0.26 | 59.03% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1554 | 7 | 5.72 | +1.28 | 89.62% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1508 | 3.5 | 5.29 | -1.79 | 13.35% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | |
| Chicago Bears | West | 1479 | 3 | 4.98 | -1.98 | 17.20% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Boston Yanks | East | 1367 | 3.5 | 3.21 | +0.29 | 62.21% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | 1357 | 2 | 4.20 | -2.20 | 12.58% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | |
| Chicago Cardinals | West | 1266 | 1 | 2.08 | -1.08 | 37.72% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Within East
| Team | Yanks | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Yanks | — |
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
0-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Yanks |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Washington Redskins |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Rams |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Yanks | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Rams |
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Green Bay Packers |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
Win
Loss
Same range
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 2.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | 3.00% | — | 1.00% | 16.00% |
| 7–13 | 2.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 1.00% | 3.00% | 1.00% | — | 15.00% |
| 14–20 | 5.00% | 4.00% | — | 5.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | — | 21.00% |
| 21–27 | 5.00% | 1.00% | 5.00% | 2.00% | 6.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% | 22.00% |
| 28–34 | 3.00% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 6.00% | — | 1.00% | — | 17.00% |
| 35–41 | — | 1.00% | 3.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% | — | — | 7.00% |
| 42+ | 1.00% | — | — | 1.00% | — | — | — | 2.00% |
| Total | 16.00% | 15.00% | 21.00% | 22.00% | 17.00% | 7.00% | 2.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 18.49 | 18.49 | +0.00 |
| SD | 11.59 | 11.59 | 17.70 |
| CV | 0.63 | 0.63 | — |
| Max | 57 | 57 | +42 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -42 |
Games Played: 50
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 60.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Boston Yanks — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 12.30 | 21.10 | -8.80 |
| SD | 9.12 | 12.07 | 17.61 |
| CV | 0.74 | 0.57 | — |
| Max | 28 | 38 | +21 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -28 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | 30.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | 40.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 10.00% | 40.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.20 | 23.50 | -4.30 |
| SD | 10.12 | 10.30 | 12.20 |
| CV | 0.53 | 0.44 | — |
| Max | 28 | 41 | +21 |
| Min | 0 | 7 | -20 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 10.00% | — | 40.00% | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | — | 10.00% | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 20.00% | — | 50.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | 100% |
Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 9.80 | 22.80 | -13.00 |
| SD | 9.48 | 8.89 | 10.50 |
| CV | 0.97 | 0.39 | — |
| Max | 21 | 35 | +9 |
| Min | 0 | 7 | -26 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 40.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 24.40 | 13.60 | +10.80 |
| SD | 8.38 | 9.66 | 10.15 |
| CV | 0.34 | 0.71 | — |
| Max | 41 | 28 | +21 |
| Min | 14 | 0 | -14 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 30.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 30.00% | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 100% |
Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.50 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| SD | 8.25 | 18.39 | 17.59 |
| CV | 0.42 | 0.95 | — |
| Max | 35 | 57 | +26 |
| Min | 10 | 0 | -36 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| Total | 10.00% | — | 50.00% | 30.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 25.80 | 17.30 | +8.50 |
| SD | 15.74 | 8.07 | 18.11 |
| CV | 0.61 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 57 | 28 | +36 |
| Min | 3 | 0 | -13 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 7–13 | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 30.00% | — | 10.00% | — | 40.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 50.00% | — | 10.00% | — | 100% |
New York Giants — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.90 | 19.80 | -1.90 |
| SD | 11.30 | 8.44 | 16.20 |
| CV | 0.63 | 0.43 | — |
| Max | 35 | 38 | +28 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -21 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 28–34 | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 42+ | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| Total | 40.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 100% |
Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 27.20 | 13.30 | +13.90 |
| SD | 9.94 | 10.49 | 16.58 |
| CV | 0.37 | 0.79 | — |
| Max | 45 | 28 | +42 |
| Min | 14 | 0 | -10 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | 60.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 40.00% | — | 10.00% | 100% |
Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 7.90 | 22.00 | -14.10 |
| SD | 7.89 | 13.86 | 19.81 |
| CV | 1.00 | 0.63 | — |
| Max | 23 | 45 | +23 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -42 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 20.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 30.00% | 10.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.90 | 12.10 | +8.80 |
| SD | 9.19 | 9.99 | 13.31 |
| CV | 0.44 | 0.83 | — |
| Max | 34 | 28 | +27 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -16 |
Games Played: 10
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Rams | 9 | 5.73 | +3.27 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 8 | 6.37 | +1.63 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 5.72 | +1.28 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 6.16 | +0.84 |
| 5 | Boston Yanks | 3.5 | 3.21 | +0.29 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 4.20 | -2.20 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 3 | 4.98 | -1.98 |
| 3 | New York Giants | 3.5 | 5.29 | -1.79 |
| 4 | Chicago Cardinals | 1 | 2.08 | -1.08 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 6.26 | -0.26 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Redskins | 6 | Oct 14 – Nov 18 | 1 in 19 |
| 2 | Cleveland Rams | 5 | Nov 4 – Dec 2 | 1 in 13 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | Oct 28 – Nov 25 | 1 in 11 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 5 | Oct 14 – Nov 11 | 1 in 11 |
| 5 | Chicago Cardinals | 1 | Oct 14 – Oct 14 | 1 in 8 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 5 | Sep 30 – Oct 28 | 1 in 77 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 4 | Oct 21 – Nov 11 | 1 in 70 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | Sep 25 – Oct 14 | 1 in 10 |
| 4 | Boston Yanks | 5 | Nov 4 – Dec 9 | 1 in 6 |
| 5 | Chicago Cardinals | 6 | Oct 21 – Dec 2 | 1 in 5 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 39.86% | 30.72% | 18.33% | 8.36% | 2.73% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 35.56% | 30.36% | 20.66% | 10.22% | 3.20% |
| New York Giants | 18.70% | 24.02% | 27.29% | 19.77% | 10.22% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.30% | 10.55% | 21.61% | 35.32% | 28.22% |
| Boston Yanks | 1.58% | 4.35% | 12.11% | 26.33% | 55.63% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 39.92% | 26.82% | 19.84% | 12.31% | 1.11% |
| Cleveland Rams | 24.51% | 27.99% | 26.33% | 18.35% | 2.82% |
| Detroit Lions | 25.41% | 26.51% | 25.13% | 19.46% | 3.49% |
| Chicago Bears | 10.04% | 17.95% | 25.80% | 37.93% | 8.28% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.12% | 0.73% | 2.90% | 11.95% | 84.30% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 20.35% | 19.68% | 16.20% | 14.13% | 10.79% | 8.00% | 5.11% | 3.48% | 1.88% | 0.38% |
| Green Bay Packers | 20.17% | 18.38% | 15.32% | 13.24% | 10.87% | 8.85% | 6.39% | 4.79% | 1.47% | 0.52% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 18.77% | 17.01% | 14.51% | 14.34% | 11.40% | 9.80% | 6.72% | 4.74% | 2.22% | 0.49% |
| Cleveland Rams | 12.11% | 12.73% | 13.80% | 14.18% | 13.34% | 12.56% | 9.70% | 7.63% | 2.97% | 0.98% |
| Detroit Lions | 12.64% | 13.22% | 13.46% | 12.95% | 13.17% | 11.69% | 9.26% | 8.82% | 3.11% | 1.68% |
| New York Giants | 9.75% | 9.13% | 11.70% | 11.70% | 12.65% | 13.42% | 11.86% | 10.37% | 7.04% | 2.38% |
| Chicago Bears | 4.28% | 6.26% | 8.59% | 10.66% | 12.74% | 14.51% | 17.88% | 14.46% | 7.15% | 3.47% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.34% | 2.61% | 4.64% | 5.91% | 9.23% | 12.61% | 16.59% | 20.56% | 17.89% | 8.62% |
| Boston Yanks | 0.56% | 0.90% | 1.62% | 2.48% | 4.63% | 6.83% | 12.17% | 16.94% | 32.87% | 21.00% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.41% | 1.18% | 1.73% | 4.32% | 8.21% | 23.40% | 60.48% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 39.86% | 60.14% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 35.56% | 64.44% |
| New York Giants | 18.70% | 81.30% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.30% | 95.70% |
| Boston Yanks | 1.58% | 98.42% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 39.92% | 60.08% |
| Detroit Lions | 25.41% | 74.59% |
| Cleveland Rams | 24.51% | 75.49% |
| Chicago Bears | 10.04% | 89.96% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.12% | 99.88% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 39.92% | 25.82% |
| Cleveland Rams | 24.51% | 17.34% |
| Washington Redskins | 39.86% | 15.85% |
| Detroit Lions | 25.41% | 15.13% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 35.56% | 14.70% |
| New York Giants | 18.70% | 5.31% |
| Chicago Bears | 10.04% | 5.01% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.30% | 0.54% |
| Boston Yanks | 1.58% | 0.28% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.12% | 0.02% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Boston Yanks | Chicago Bears | Chicago Cardinals | Cleveland Rams | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Yanks | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.09% | |||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.19% | 1.32% | 1.77% | 0.25% | 1.48% | |||||
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.01% | 0.01% | ||||||||
| Cleveland Rams | 0.34% | 3.68% | 5.27% | 0.95% | 7.10% | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.32% | 3.28% | 4.76% | 1.03% | 5.74% | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.45% | 5.11% | 9.05% | 1.53% | 9.68% | |||||
| New York Giants | 1.00% | 0.01% | 1.04% | 1.46% | 1.80% | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.20% | 0.06% | 2.66% | 3.80% | 5.98% | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.21% | 0.18% | ||||||
| Washington Redskins | 1.74% | 0.01% | 3.30% | 4.75% | 6.05% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Rams | 67.60% |
| Washington Redskins | 32.40% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Rams | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Rams | 67.60% | |
| Washington Redskins | 32.40% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Cleveland Rams
67.60% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Washington Redskins
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
67.60%
Washington Redskins
32.40% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Cleveland Rams
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
32.40%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1945-09-25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 28-7 | 1373.70 | 1498.84 | 44.29% | 53.66% | +36.46 | 1-0 |
| 1945-10-07 | Washington Redskins | W 28-20 | 1410.16 | 1521.68 | 46.24% | 51.71% | +21.71 | 2-0 |
| 1945-10-14 | New York Giants | T 13-13 | 1431.87 | 1607.13 | 37.34% | 60.61% | +0.85 | 2-0 |
| 1945-10-21 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-38 | 1432.72 | 1584.51 | 19.04% | 78.92% | -14.04 | 2-1 |
| 1945-10-28 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 10-6 | 1418.68 | 1443.25 | 32.85% | 65.10% | +19.28 | 3-1 |
| 1945-11-04 | Detroit Lions | L 9-10 | 1437.96 | 1556.90 | 45.18% | 52.77% | -6.72 | 3-2 |
| 1945-11-11 | @ Washington Redskins | L 7-34 | 1431.24 | 1577.82 | 19.51% | 78.45% | -15.25 | 3-3 |
| 1945-11-18 | Green Bay Packers | L 0-28 | 1415.99 | 1568.94 | 40.39% | 57.56% | -31.86 | 3-4 |
| 1945-12-02 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 7-20 | 1384.13 | 1640.02 | 11.44% | 86.52% | -6.22 | 3-5 |
| 1945-12-09 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-35 | 1377.91 | 1605.72 | 13.18% | 84.78% | -10.52 | 3-6 |
| 1945-09-30 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 21-31 | 1581.99 | 1579.41 | 36.39% | 61.56% | -17.19 | 0-1 |
| 1945-10-07 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 0-17 | 1564.80 | 1496.85 | 45.46% | 52.49% | -27.88 | 0-2 |
| 1945-10-14 | Chicago Cardinals | L 7-16 | 1536.92 | 1296.13 | 85.61% | 12.35% | -38.06 | 0-3 |
| 1945-10-21 | Cleveland Rams | L 21-41 | 1498.86 | 1564.13 | 52.87% | 45.08% | -35.08 | 0-4 |
| 1945-10-28 | @ Detroit Lions | L 10-16 | 1463.78 | 1547.41 | 25.83% | 72.13% | -9.49 | 0-5 |
| 1945-11-04 | Green Bay Packers | W 28-24 | 1454.29 | 1605.34 | 40.65% | 57.30% | +16.98 | 1-5 |
| 1945-11-11 | Detroit Lions | L 28-35 | 1471.27 | 1563.63 | 48.99% | 48.96% | -19.25 | 1-6 |
| 1945-11-18 | @ Washington Redskins | L 21-28 | 1452.02 | 1593.07 | 20.01% | 77.94% | -7.96 | 1-7 |
| 1945-11-25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 28-7 | 1444.06 | 1387.17 | 69.07% | 28.88% | +19.83 | 2-7 |
| 1945-12-02 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 28-20 | 1463.89 | 1281.06 | 61.63% | 36.32% | +15.34 | 3-7 |
| 1945-09-23 | Detroit Lions | L 0-10 | 1332.29 | 1536.42 | 33.54% | 64.42% | -15.86 | 0-1 |
| 1945-09-30 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 0-21 | 1316.43 | 1484.70 | 17.62% | 80.33% | -12.15 | 0-2 |
| 1945-10-07 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 6-21 | 1304.28 | 1520.62 | 13.95% | 84.00% | -8.15 | 0-3 |
| 1945-10-14 | @ Chicago Bears | W 16-7 | 1296.13 | 1536.92 | 12.35% | 85.61% | +38.06 | 1-3 |
| 1945-10-21 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-26 | 1334.19 | 1535.89 | 15.00% | 82.96% | -11.52 | 1-4 |
| 1945-10-28 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-33 | 1322.67 | 1598.54 | 10.32% | 87.64% | -6.80 | 1-5 |
| 1945-11-04 | @ Washington Redskins | L 21-24 | 1315.87 | 1574.88 | 11.26% | 86.70% | -2.94 | 1-6 |
| 1945-11-11 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-23 | 1312.93 | 1378.55 | 27.86% | 70.09% | -20.03 | 1-7 |
| 1945-11-18 | Cleveland Rams | L 21-35 | 1292.90 | 1607.66 | 21.06% | 76.89% | -11.84 | 1-8 |
| 1945-12-02 | Chicago Bears | L 20-28 | 1281.06 | 1463.89 | 36.32% | 61.63% | -15.35 | 1-9 |
| 1945-09-30 | Chicago Cardinals | W 21-0 | 1484.70 | 1316.43 | 80.33% | 17.62% | +12.15 | 1-0 |
| 1945-10-07 | Chicago Bears | W 17-0 | 1496.85 | 1564.80 | 52.49% | 45.46% | +27.89 | 2-0 |
| 1945-10-14 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 27-14 | 1524.74 | 1623.90 | 24.15% | 73.80% | +39.39 | 3-0 |
| 1945-10-21 | @ Chicago Bears | W 41-21 | 1564.13 | 1498.86 | 45.08% | 52.87% | +35.07 | 4-0 |
| 1945-10-28 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-28 | 1599.20 | 1501.49 | 49.73% | 48.22% | -27.63 | 4-1 |
| 1945-11-04 | @ New York Giants | W 21-17 | 1571.57 | 1530.08 | 41.71% | 56.24% | +16.67 | 5-1 |
| 1945-11-11 | Green Bay Packers | W 20-7 | 1588.24 | 1588.36 | 61.89% | 36.06% | +19.42 | 6-1 |
| 1945-11-18 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 35-21 | 1607.66 | 1292.90 | 76.89% | 21.06% | +11.84 | 7-1 |
| 1945-11-22 | @ Detroit Lions | W 28-21 | 1619.50 | 1549.88 | 45.70% | 52.25% | +20.52 | 8-1 |
| 1945-12-02 | Boston Yanks | W 20-7 | 1640.02 | 1384.13 | 86.52% | 11.44% | +6.22 | 9-1 |
| 1945-09-23 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 10-0 | 1536.42 | 1332.29 | 64.42% | 33.54% | +15.86 | 1-0 |
| 1945-10-07 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 21-57 | 1552.28 | 1596.60 | 30.39% | 67.56% | -27.31 | 1-1 |
| 1945-10-14 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-24 | 1524.97 | 1528.77 | 61.40% | 36.55% | +10.92 | 2-1 |
| 1945-10-21 | Chicago Cardinals | W 26-0 | 1535.89 | 1334.19 | 82.96% | 15.00% | +11.52 | 3-1 |
| 1945-10-28 | Chicago Bears | W 16-10 | 1547.41 | 1463.78 | 72.13% | 25.83% | +9.49 | 4-1 |
| 1945-11-04 | @ Boston Yanks | W 10-9 | 1556.90 | 1437.96 | 52.77% | 45.18% | +6.73 | 5-1 |
| 1945-11-11 | @ Chicago Bears | W 35-28 | 1563.63 | 1471.27 | 48.96% | 48.99% | +19.25 | 6-1 |
| 1945-11-18 | @ New York Giants | L 14-35 | 1582.88 | 1493.92 | 48.47% | 49.48% | -33.00 | 6-2 |
| 1945-11-22 | Cleveland Rams | L 21-28 | 1549.88 | 1619.50 | 52.25% | 45.70% | -20.51 | 6-3 |
| 1945-12-02 | Green Bay Packers | W 14-3 | 1529.37 | 1623.79 | 48.69% | 49.26% | +24.26 | 7-3 |
| 1945-09-30 | Chicago Bears | W 31-21 | 1579.41 | 1581.99 | 61.56% | 36.39% | +17.19 | 1-0 |
| 1945-10-07 | Detroit Lions | W 57-21 | 1596.60 | 1552.28 | 67.56% | 30.39% | +27.30 | 2-0 |
| 1945-10-14 | Cleveland Rams | L 14-27 | 1623.90 | 1524.74 | 73.80% | 24.15% | -39.39 | 2-1 |
| 1945-10-21 | Boston Yanks | W 38-14 | 1584.51 | 1432.72 | 78.92% | 19.04% | +14.03 | 3-1 |
| 1945-10-28 | Chicago Cardinals | W 33-14 | 1598.54 | 1322.67 | 87.64% | 10.32% | +6.80 | 4-1 |
| 1945-11-04 | @ Chicago Bears | L 24-28 | 1605.34 | 1454.29 | 57.30% | 40.65% | -16.98 | 4-2 |
| 1945-11-11 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 7-20 | 1588.36 | 1588.24 | 36.06% | 61.89% | -19.42 | 4-3 |
| 1945-11-18 | @ Boston Yanks | W 28-0 | 1568.94 | 1415.99 | 57.56% | 40.39% | +31.86 | 5-3 |
| 1945-11-25 | @ New York Giants | W 23-14 | 1600.80 | 1526.93 | 46.31% | 51.64% | +22.99 | 6-3 |
| 1945-12-02 | @ Detroit Lions | L 3-14 | 1623.79 | 1529.37 | 49.26% | 48.69% | -24.26 | 6-4 |
| 1945-10-07 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 34-6 | 1570.35 | 1462.37 | 51.20% | 46.74% | +36.78 | 1-0 |
| 1945-10-14 | @ Boston Yanks | T 13-13 | 1607.13 | 1431.87 | 60.61% | 37.34% | -0.85 | 1-0 |
| 1945-10-21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 7-21 | 1606.28 | 1396.96 | 83.51% | 14.45% | -46.29 | 1-1 |
| 1945-10-28 | Washington Redskins | L 14-24 | 1559.99 | 1544.98 | 63.87% | 34.08% | -29.91 | 1-2 |
| 1945-11-04 | Cleveland Rams | L 17-21 | 1530.08 | 1571.57 | 56.24% | 41.71% | -16.67 | 1-3 |
| 1945-11-11 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 17-38 | 1513.41 | 1574.55 | 28.38% | 69.57% | -19.49 | 1-4 |
| 1945-11-18 | Detroit Lions | W 35-14 | 1493.92 | 1582.88 | 49.48% | 48.47% | +33.01 | 2-4 |
| 1945-11-25 | Green Bay Packers | L 14-23 | 1526.93 | 1600.80 | 51.64% | 46.31% | -23.00 | 2-5 |
| 1945-12-02 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-21 | 1503.93 | 1626.64 | 44.64% | 53.31% | +20.92 | 3-5 |
| 1945-12-09 | @ Washington Redskins | L 0-17 | 1524.85 | 1590.35 | 27.88% | 70.07% | -17.22 | 3-6 |
| 1945-10-07 | Chicago Cardinals | W 21-6 | 1520.62 | 1304.28 | 84.00% | 13.95% | +8.15 | 1-0 |
| 1945-10-14 | @ Detroit Lions | L 24-28 | 1528.77 | 1524.97 | 36.55% | 61.40% | -10.91 | 1-1 |
| 1945-10-21 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-24 | 1517.86 | 1528.61 | 34.63% | 63.32% | -16.37 | 1-2 |
| 1945-10-28 | Cleveland Rams | W 28-14 | 1501.49 | 1599.20 | 48.22% | 49.73% | +27.63 | 2-2 |
| 1945-11-04 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 45-3 | 1529.12 | 1423.98 | 50.80% | 47.15% | +45.43 | 3-2 |
| 1945-11-11 | New York Giants | W 38-17 | 1574.55 | 1513.41 | 69.57% | 28.38% | +19.49 | 4-2 |
| 1945-11-18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 30-6 | 1594.04 | 1398.58 | 82.49% | 15.46% | +11.41 | 5-2 |
| 1945-11-25 | Washington Redskins | W 16-0 | 1605.45 | 1601.03 | 62.49% | 35.46% | +21.19 | 6-2 |
| 1945-12-02 | @ New York Giants | L 21-28 | 1626.64 | 1503.93 | 53.31% | 44.64% | -20.92 | 6-3 |
| 1945-12-09 | Boston Yanks | W 35-7 | 1605.72 | 1377.91 | 84.78% | 13.18% | +10.52 | 7-3 |
| 1945-09-25 | @ Boston Yanks | L 7-28 | 1498.84 | 1373.70 | 53.66% | 44.29% | -36.47 | 0-1 |
| 1945-10-07 | New York Giants | L 6-34 | 1462.37 | 1570.35 | 46.74% | 51.20% | -36.77 | 0-2 |
| 1945-10-14 | Washington Redskins | L 0-14 | 1425.60 | 1499.98 | 51.57% | 46.38% | -28.64 | 0-3 |
| 1945-10-21 | @ New York Giants | W 21-7 | 1396.96 | 1606.28 | 14.45% | 83.51% | +46.29 | 1-3 |
| 1945-10-28 | Boston Yanks | L 6-10 | 1443.25 | 1418.68 | 65.10% | 32.85% | -19.27 | 1-4 |
| 1945-11-04 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 3-45 | 1423.98 | 1529.12 | 47.15% | 50.80% | -45.43 | 1-5 |
| 1945-11-11 | Chicago Cardinals | W 23-0 | 1378.55 | 1312.93 | 70.09% | 27.86% | +20.03 | 2-5 |
| 1945-11-18 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 6-30 | 1398.58 | 1594.04 | 15.46% | 82.49% | -11.41 | 2-6 |
| 1945-11-25 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-28 | 1387.17 | 1444.06 | 28.88% | 69.07% | -19.83 | 2-7 |
| 1945-12-02 | @ Washington Redskins | L 0-24 | 1367.34 | 1579.84 | 14.22% | 83.73% | -10.51 | 2-8 |
| 1945-10-07 | @ Boston Yanks | L 20-28 | 1521.68 | 1410.16 | 51.71% | 46.24% | -21.70 | 0-1 |
| 1945-10-14 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 14-0 | 1499.98 | 1425.60 | 46.38% | 51.57% | +28.63 | 1-1 |
| 1945-10-21 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 24-14 | 1528.61 | 1517.86 | 63.32% | 34.63% | +16.37 | 2-1 |
| 1945-10-28 | @ New York Giants | W 24-14 | 1544.98 | 1559.99 | 34.08% | 63.87% | +29.90 | 3-1 |
| 1945-11-04 | Chicago Cardinals | W 24-21 | 1574.88 | 1315.87 | 86.70% | 11.26% | +2.94 | 4-1 |
| 1945-11-11 | Boston Yanks | W 34-7 | 1577.82 | 1431.24 | 78.45% | 19.51% | +15.25 | 5-1 |
| 1945-11-18 | Chicago Bears | W 28-21 | 1593.07 | 1452.02 | 77.94% | 20.01% | +7.96 | 6-1 |
| 1945-11-25 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-16 | 1601.03 | 1605.45 | 35.46% | 62.49% | -21.19 | 6-2 |
| 1945-12-02 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-0 | 1579.84 | 1367.34 | 83.73% | 14.22% | +10.51 | 7-2 |
| 1945-12-09 | New York Giants | W 17-0 | 1590.35 | 1524.85 | 70.07% | 27.88% | +17.22 | 8-2 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1945-12-16 | Washington Redskins | W 15-14 | 1646.24 | 1607.57 | 68.02% | 31.98% | +4.65 | 1-0 |
| 1945-12-16 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 14-15 | 1607.57 | 1646.24 | 31.98% | 68.02% | -4.65 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1945-10-14 | 12.35% | Chicago Cardinals | 1296.13 | 16 | @ Chicago Bears | 1536.92 | 7 |
| 2 | 1945-10-21 | 14.45% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1396.96 | 21 | @ New York Giants | 1606.28 | 7 |
| 3 | 1945-10-14 | 24.15% | Cleveland Rams | 1524.74 | 27 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1623.90 | 14 |
| 4 | 1945-10-28 | 32.85% | Boston Yanks | 1418.68 | 10 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1443.25 | 6 |
| 5 | 1945-10-28 | 34.08% | Washington Redskins | 1544.98 | 24 | @ New York Giants | 1559.99 | 14 |
| 6 | 1945-11-04 | 40.65% | @ Chicago Bears | 1454.29 | 28 | Green Bay Packers | 1605.34 | 24 |
| 7 | 1945-11-04 | 41.71% | Cleveland Rams | 1571.57 | 21 | @ New York Giants | 1530.08 | 17 |
| 8 | 1945-09-25 | 44.29% | @ Boston Yanks | 1373.70 | 28 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1498.84 | 7 |
| 9 | 1945-12-02 | 44.64% | @ New York Giants | 1503.93 | 28 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1626.64 | 21 |
| 10 | 1945-10-21 | 45.08% | Cleveland Rams | 1564.13 | 41 | @ Chicago Bears | 1498.86 | 21 |
| 11 | 1945-11-22 | 45.70% | Cleveland Rams | 1619.50 | 28 | @ Detroit Lions | 1549.88 | 21 |
| 12 | 1945-10-07 | 46.24% | @ Boston Yanks | 1410.16 | 28 | Washington Redskins | 1521.68 | 20 |
| 13 | 1945-11-25 | 46.31% | Green Bay Packers | 1600.80 | 23 | @ New York Giants | 1526.93 | 14 |
| 14 | 1945-10-14 | 46.38% | Washington Redskins | 1499.98 | 14 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1425.60 | 0 |
| 15 | 1945-10-28 | 48.22% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1501.49 | 28 | Cleveland Rams | 1599.20 | 14 |
| 16 | 1945-12-02 | 48.69% | @ Detroit Lions | 1529.37 | 14 | Green Bay Packers | 1623.79 | 3 |
| 17 | 1945-11-11 | 48.96% | Detroit Lions | 1563.63 | 35 | @ Chicago Bears | 1471.27 | 28 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1945-10-21 | 46.29 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 21 | 1396.96 | 14.45% | @ New York Giants | 7 | 1606.28 | 83.51% |
| 2 | 1945-11-04 | 45.43 | Philadelphia Eagles | 45 | 1529.12 | 50.80% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 1423.98 | 47.15% |
| 3 | 1945-10-14 | 39.39 | Cleveland Rams | 27 | 1524.74 | 24.15% | @ Green Bay Packers | 14 | 1623.90 | 73.80% |
| 4 | 1945-10-14 | 38.06 | Chicago Cardinals | 16 | 1296.13 | 12.35% | @ Chicago Bears | 7 | 1536.92 | 85.61% |
| 5 | 1945-10-07 | 36.78 | New York Giants | 34 | 1570.35 | 51.20% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 1462.37 | 46.74% |
| 6 | 1945-09-25 | 36.47 | @ Boston Yanks | 28 | 1373.70 | 44.29% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 1498.84 | 53.66% |
| 7 | 1945-10-21 | 35.08 | Cleveland Rams | 41 | 1564.13 | 45.08% | @ Chicago Bears | 21 | 1498.86 | 52.87% |
| 8 | 1945-11-18 | 33.01 | @ New York Giants | 35 | 1493.92 | 49.48% | Detroit Lions | 14 | 1582.88 | 48.47% |
| 9 | 1945-11-18 | 31.86 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1568.94 | 57.56% | @ Boston Yanks | 0 | 1415.99 | 40.39% |
| 10 | 1945-10-28 | 29.91 | Washington Redskins | 24 | 1544.98 | 34.08% | @ New York Giants | 14 | 1559.99 | 63.87% |
| 11 | 1945-10-14 | 28.64 | Washington Redskins | 14 | 1499.98 | 46.38% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 1425.60 | 51.57% |
| 12 | 1945-10-07 | 27.89 | @ Cleveland Rams | 17 | 1496.85 | 52.49% | Chicago Bears | 0 | 1564.80 | 45.46% |
| 13 | 1945-10-28 | 27.63 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 28 | 1501.49 | 48.22% | Cleveland Rams | 14 | 1599.20 | 49.73% |
| 14 | 1945-10-07 | 27.31 | @ Green Bay Packers | 57 | 1596.60 | 67.56% | Detroit Lions | 21 | 1552.28 | 30.39% |
| 15 | 1945-12-02 | 24.26 | @ Detroit Lions | 14 | 1529.37 | 48.69% | Green Bay Packers | 3 | 1623.79 | 49.26% |
| 16 | 1945-11-25 | 23.00 | Green Bay Packers | 23 | 1600.80 | 46.31% | @ New York Giants | 14 | 1526.93 | 51.64% |
| 17 | 1945-10-07 | 21.71 | @ Boston Yanks | 28 | 1410.16 | 46.24% | Washington Redskins | 20 | 1521.68 | 51.71% |
| 18 | 1945-11-25 | 21.19 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 16 | 1605.45 | 62.49% | Washington Redskins | 0 | 1601.03 | 35.46% |
| 19 | 1945-12-02 | 20.92 | @ New York Giants | 28 | 1503.93 | 44.64% | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 1626.64 | 53.31% |
| 20 | 1945-11-22 | 20.52 | Cleveland Rams | 28 | 1619.50 | 45.70% | @ Detroit Lions | 21 | 1549.88 | 52.25% |
| 21 | 1945-11-11 | 20.03 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 1378.55 | 70.09% | Chicago Cardinals | 0 | 1312.93 | 27.86% |
| 22 | 1945-11-25 | 19.83 | @ Chicago Bears | 28 | 1444.06 | 69.07% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 1387.17 | 28.88% |
| 23 | 1945-11-11 | 19.49 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 38 | 1574.55 | 69.57% | New York Giants | 17 | 1513.41 | 28.38% |
| 24 | 1945-11-11 | 19.42 | @ Cleveland Rams | 20 | 1588.24 | 61.89% | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1588.36 | 36.06% |
| 25 | 1945-10-28 | 19.28 | Boston Yanks | 10 | 1418.68 | 32.85% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 1443.25 | 65.10% |