1944 NFL Season
50 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Green Bay Packers
6th Title
Last Title: 1939
Runner-Up
New York Giants
7th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1941
Biggest Overachiever
Philadelphia Eagles
3.11 wins above expected
7 wins · 4.89 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Brooklyn Tigers
3.83 wins below expected
0 wins · 3.83 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 8 | 1 | 1 | .850 | — | 206 | 75 | +131 | 6.67 | +1.83 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 1 | 2 | .800 | 0.5 | 267 | 131 | +136 | 4.89 | +3.11 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | 2 | 169 | 180 | -11 | 7.14 | -0.64 |
| 4 | Boston Yanks | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | 6.5 | 82 | 233 | -151 | 2.04 | -0.04 |
| 5 | Brooklyn Tigers | 0 | 10 | 0 | .000 | 8.5 | 69 | 166 | -97 | 3.83 | -3.83 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers Division | 8 | 2 | 0 | .800 | — | 238 | 141 | +97 | 6.79 | +1.21 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | 1.5 | 258 | 172 | +86 | 6.71 | -0.21 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | 1.5 | 216 | 151 | +65 | 4.82 | +1.68 |
| 4 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | 4 | 188 | 224 | -36 | 3.76 | +0.24 |
| 5 | Card Pitt Carpets | 0 | 10 | 0 | .000 | 8 | 108 | 328 | -220 | 3.34 | -3.34 |
Playoff Bracket
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | West | 1665 | 6.5 | 6.71 | -0.21 | 53.13% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1660 | 8.5 | 6.67 | +1.83 | 94.35% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1659 | 8 | 6.79 | +1.21 | 92.49% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1570 | 6.5 | 4.82 | +1.68 | 92.21% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1550 | 6.5 | 7.14 | -0.64 | 40.14% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1537 | 8 | 4.89 | +3.11 | 99.74% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | |
| Cleveland Rams | West | 1457 | 4 | 3.76 | +0.24 | 77.73% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | |
| Brooklyn Tigers | East | 1331 | 0 | 3.83 | -3.83 | 0.58% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | |
| Card Pitt Carpets | West | 1331 | 0 | 3.34 | -3.34 | 2.19% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Boston Yanks | East | 1240 | 2 | 2.04 | -0.04 | 77.57% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Within East
| Team | Yanks | Tigers | Giants | Eagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Yanks | — |
2-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Brooklyn Tigers |
0-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
0-1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Carpets | Bears | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Yanks |
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
—
|
| Brooklyn Tigers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Washington Redskins |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Carpets | Bears | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card Pitt Carpets | — |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Rams |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Yanks | Tigers | Giants | Eagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card Pitt Carpets |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
| Cleveland Rams |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Green Bay Packers |
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 3.00% | 1.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% | 1.00% | — | 14.00% |
| 7–13 | 3.00% | — | 6.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 22.00% |
| 14–20 | 1.00% | 6.00% | 8.00% | 3.00% | — | 1.00% | 1.00% | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | 4.00% | 4.00% | — | 2.00% | 4.00% | — | 1.00% | 15.00% |
| 35–41 | 1.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | — | — | — | 5.00% |
| 42+ | — | 2.00% | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — | — | 4.00% |
| Total | 14.00% | 22.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 18.01 | 18.01 | +0.00 |
| SD | 11.82 | 11.82 | 19.18 |
| CV | 0.66 | 0.66 | — |
| Max | 49 | 49 | +42 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -42 |
Games Played: 50
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 60.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | — | 20.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Boston Yanks — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 8.20 | 23.30 | -15.10 |
| SD | 5.55 | 10.53 | 14.99 |
| CV | 0.68 | 0.45 | — |
| Max | 17 | 38 | +7 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -38 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 30.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 40.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 30.00% | — | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 30.00% | 50.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Brooklyn Tigers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 6.90 | 16.60 | -9.70 |
| SD | 5.72 | 7.38 | 9.13 |
| CV | 0.83 | 0.44 | — |
| Max | 14 | 34 | -3 |
| Min | 0 | 7 | -34 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | 40.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | — | 30.00% | 40.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 100% |
Card Pitt Carpets — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 10.80 | 32.80 | -22.00 |
| SD | 8.73 | 8.38 | 10.49 |
| CV | 0.81 | 0.26 | — |
| Max | 28 | 49 | -2 |
| Min | 0 | 21 | -42 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | 40.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | 40.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| Total | 10.00% | 40.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 100% |
Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 25.80 | 17.20 | +8.60 |
| SD | 10.88 | 14.63 | 20.06 |
| CV | 0.42 | 0.85 | — |
| Max | 49 | 42 | +42 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -20 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | 30.00% |
| 14–20 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% | — | 10.00% | 100% |
Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 18.80 | 22.40 | -3.60 |
| SD | 8.24 | 11.24 | 16.47 |
| CV | 0.44 | 0.50 | — |
| Max | 33 | 42 | +27 |
| Min | 7 | 6 | -35 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 30.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.60 | 15.10 | +6.50 |
| SD | 12.62 | 7.09 | 16.30 |
| CV | 0.58 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 41 | 27 | +31 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -21 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 42+ | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| Total | 20.00% | 30.00% | 10.00% | 30.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 23.80 | 14.10 | +9.70 |
| SD | 15.87 | 9.64 | 18.91 |
| CV | 0.67 | 0.68 | — |
| Max | 42 | 28 | +35 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -24 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | — | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 28–34 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 50.00% | 30.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
New York Giants — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.60 | 7.50 | +13.10 |
| SD | 7.44 | 9.26 | 13.38 |
| CV | 0.36 | 1.24 | — |
| Max | 31 | 24 | +31 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -7 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 28–34 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 35–41 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 40.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 100% |
Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 26.70 | 13.10 | +13.60 |
| SD | 9.24 | 10.93 | 18.09 |
| CV | 0.35 | 0.83 | — |
| Max | 38 | 31 | +38 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -21 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | 30.00% |
| 14–20 | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| Total | 10.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | 100% |
Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 16.90 | 18.00 | -1.10 |
| SD | 12.06 | 11.78 | 16.88 |
| CV | 0.71 | 0.65 | — |
| Max | 42 | 37 | +22 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -31 |
Games Played: 10
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 4.89 | +3.11 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 8.5 | 6.67 | +1.83 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 6.5 | 4.82 | +1.68 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 6.79 | +1.21 |
| 5 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | 3.76 | +0.24 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooklyn Tigers | 0 | 3.83 | -3.83 |
| 2 | Card Pitt Carpets | 0 | 3.34 | -3.34 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 6.5 | 7.14 | -0.64 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 6.5 | 6.71 | -0.21 |
| 5 | Boston Yanks | 2 | 2.04 | -0.04 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 5 | Nov 5 – Dec 3 | 1 in 28 |
| 2 | Cleveland Rams | 3 | Sep 24 – Oct 15 | 1 in 22 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | Oct 22 – Nov 5 | 1 in 15 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 4 | Nov 19 – Dec 10 | 1 in 13 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | Sep 17 – Oct 29 | 1 in 12 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooklyn Tigers | 10 | Sep 17 – Dec 3 | 1 in 536 |
| 2 | Card Pitt Carpets | 10 | Sep 24 – Dec 3 | 1 in 133 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 2 | Sep 24 – Oct 8 | 1 in 7 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 1 | Oct 29 – Oct 29 | 1 in 5 |
| 5 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | Oct 22 – Nov 12 | 1 in 5 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 55.32% | 31.84% | 10.49% | 2.22% | 0.13% |
| New York Giants | 36.30% | 41.57% | 16.83% | 4.83% | 0.47% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.83% | 19.05% | 44.66% | 24.24% | 5.22% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 1.51% | 7.12% | 24.43% | 51.09% | 15.85% |
| Boston Yanks | 0.04% | 0.42% | 3.59% | 17.62% | 78.33% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.63% | 34.27% | 14.02% | 4.90% | 1.18% |
| Chicago Bears | 43.62% | 35.32% | 14.95% | 4.73% | 1.38% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.70% | 19.05% | 37.90% | 23.73% | 11.62% |
| Cleveland Rams | 2.05% | 7.29% | 19.56% | 35.41% | 35.69% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 1.00% | 4.07% | 13.57% | 31.23% | 50.13% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 30.00% | 25.90% | 18.29% | 12.62% | 6.81% | 3.85% | 1.49% | 0.80% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| Green Bay Packers | 23.60% | 21.49% | 17.88% | 16.09% | 10.04% | 5.41% | 3.17% | 1.46% | 0.77% | 0.09% |
| Chicago Bears | 20.36% | 21.68% | 18.74% | 17.46% | 9.64% | 6.53% | 2.98% | 1.72% | 0.72% | 0.17% |
| New York Giants | 19.98% | 18.79% | 21.58% | 17.28% | 10.56% | 6.36% | 3.15% | 1.49% | 0.63% | 0.18% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.63% | 4.46% | 8.81% | 11.27% | 18.86% | 21.18% | 13.50% | 11.43% | 4.97% | 2.89% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.22% | 4.76% | 7.37% | 12.56% | 18.41% | 18.61% | 15.70% | 10.27% | 7.48% | 2.62% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 0.46% | 0.95% | 3.02% | 4.52% | 9.77% | 14.15% | 19.14% | 25.27% | 12.80% | 9.92% |
| Cleveland Rams | 0.53% | 1.36% | 2.67% | 4.92% | 9.18% | 12.66% | 19.02% | 18.16% | 20.77% | 10.73% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 0.22% | 0.61% | 1.51% | 3.02% | 5.86% | 8.97% | 16.97% | 18.65% | 28.29% | 15.90% |
| Boston Yanks | — | — | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.87% | 2.28% | 4.88% | 10.75% | 23.36% | 57.47% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 55.32% | 44.68% |
| New York Giants | 36.30% | 63.70% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.83% | 93.17% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 1.51% | 98.49% |
| Boston Yanks | 0.04% | 99.96% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.63% | 54.37% |
| Chicago Bears | 43.62% | 56.38% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.70% | 92.30% |
| Cleveland Rams | 2.05% | 97.95% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 1.00% | 99.00% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.63% | 24.49% |
| Chicago Bears | 43.62% | 23.70% |
| Washington Redskins | 55.32% | 23.46% |
| New York Giants | 36.30% | 21.05% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.70% | 3.38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.83% | 2.74% |
| Cleveland Rams | 2.05% | 0.61% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 1.51% | 0.33% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 1.00% | 0.24% |
| Boston Yanks | 0.04% | — |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Boston Yanks | Brooklyn Tigers | Card Pitt Carpets | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Rams | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Tigers | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.12% | ||||||
| Card Pitt Carpets | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.14% | |||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.53% | 7.41% | 1.52% | 14.24% | ||||||
| Cleveland Rams | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.06% | 0.33% | ||||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.09% | 1.14% | 0.39% | 1.76% | ||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.04% | 0.53% | 6.46% | 2.07% | 15.39% | |||||
| New York Giants | 0.32% | 9.31% | 0.70% | 1.91% | 8.81% | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.05% | 0.83% | 0.09% | 0.26% | 1.51% | |||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.39% | 9.61% | 0.62% | 2.14% | 10.70% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| New York Giants | 57.64% |
| Green Bay Packers | 42.36% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 42.36% | |
| New York Giants | 57.64% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1944-09-26 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-28 | 1275.00 | 1384.64 | 37.92% | 55.00% | -23.40 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | New York Giants | L 10-22 | 1251.60 | 1557.56 | 16.48% | 76.66% | -7.94 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | Washington Redskins | L 14-21 | 1243.66 | 1606.13 | 12.49% | 80.76% | -4.62 | 0-3 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-38 | 1239.04 | 1409.31 | 19.68% | 73.39% | -16.79 | 0-4 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 17-14 | 1222.25 | 1423.32 | 17.04% | 76.09% | +17.29 | 1-4 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ New York Giants | L 0-31 | 1239.54 | 1569.12 | 8.96% | 84.45% | -6.99 | 1-5 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-21 | 1232.55 | 1658.07 | 5.39% | 88.29% | -2.83 | 1-6 |
| 1944-11-19 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 13-6 | 1229.72 | 1373.42 | 33.41% | 59.52% | +20.69 | 2-6 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Washington Redskins | L 7-14 | 1250.41 | 1590.94 | 8.46% | 84.97% | -3.14 | 2-7 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-38 | 1247.27 | 1562.73 | 9.64% | 83.73% | -7.52 | 2-8 |
| 1944-09-17 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-14 | 1459.47 | 1609.95 | 21.54% | 71.51% | -7.86 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Detroit Lions | L 14-19 | 1451.61 | 1474.10 | 36.47% | 56.46% | -11.01 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | New York Giants | L 7-14 | 1440.60 | 1565.49 | 35.87% | 57.06% | -12.82 | 0-3 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-17 | 1427.78 | 1610.74 | 18.55% | 74.54% | -4.46 | 0-4 |
| 1944-10-29 | Boston Yanks | L 14-17 | 1423.32 | 1222.25 | 76.09% | 17.04% | -17.29 | 0-5 |
| 1944-11-05 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-21 | 1406.03 | 1451.51 | 46.95% | 45.95% | -23.34 | 0-6 |
| 1944-11-12 | Washington Redskins | L 0-10 | 1382.69 | 1634.25 | 21.24% | 71.81% | -9.27 | 0-7 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Boston Yanks | L 6-13 | 1373.42 | 1229.72 | 59.52% | 33.41% | -20.69 | 0-8 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ New York Giants | L 0-7 | 1352.73 | 1611.13 | 12.88% | 80.36% | -4.76 | 0-9 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-34 | 1347.97 | 1503.49 | 21.06% | 72.00% | -16.96 | 0-10 |
| 1944-09-24 | Cleveland Rams | L 28-30 | 1500.00 | 1464.04 | 58.25% | 34.68% | -10.83 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-34 | 1489.17 | 1653.61 | 20.22% | 72.85% | -14.53 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-34 | 1474.64 | 1604.21 | 23.64% | 69.38% | -16.91 | 0-3 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ New York Giants | L 0-23 | 1457.73 | 1578.32 | 24.59% | 68.42% | -16.21 | 0-4 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Washington Redskins | L 20-42 | 1441.52 | 1615.20 | 19.37% | 73.71% | -12.59 | 0-5 |
| 1944-11-05 | Detroit Lions | L 6-27 | 1428.93 | 1461.49 | 48.80% | 44.10% | -29.63 | 0-6 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-21 | 1399.30 | 1491.12 | 27.79% | 65.19% | -14.22 | 0-7 |
| 1944-11-19 | Cleveland Rams | L 6-33 | 1385.08 | 1465.74 | 41.93% | 50.97% | -29.17 | 0-8 |
| 1944-11-26 | Green Bay Packers | L 20-35 | 1355.91 | 1649.84 | 17.45% | 75.67% | -9.38 | 0-9 |
| 1944-12-03 | Chicago Bears | L 7-49 | 1346.53 | 1649.46 | 16.72% | 76.42% | -15.06 | 0-10 |
| 1944-09-24 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 28-42 | 1654.33 | 1617.82 | 44.67% | 48.24% | -22.27 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 7-19 | 1632.06 | 1474.87 | 61.24% | 31.70% | -27.85 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 34-7 | 1604.21 | 1474.64 | 69.38% | 23.64% | +16.91 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-22 | Detroit Lions | T 21-21 | 1621.12 | 1473.45 | 71.23% | 21.82% | -1.58 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-29 | Cleveland Rams | W 28-21 | 1619.54 | 1505.57 | 67.70% | 25.30% | +9.19 | 2-2 |
| 1944-11-05 | Green Bay Packers | W 21-0 | 1628.73 | 1690.48 | 44.62% | 48.29% | +29.34 | 3-2 |
| 1944-11-12 | Boston Yanks | W 21-7 | 1658.07 | 1232.55 | 88.29% | 5.39% | +2.83 | 4-2 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Detroit Lions | L 21-41 | 1660.90 | 1505.35 | 61.04% | 31.91% | -35.84 | 4-3 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-7 | 1625.06 | 1527.89 | 53.28% | 39.63% | +24.40 | 5-3 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 49-7 | 1649.46 | 1346.53 | 76.42% | 16.72% | +15.06 | 6-3 |
| 1944-09-24 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 30-28 | 1464.04 | 1500.00 | 34.68% | 58.25% | +10.83 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-08 | Chicago Bears | W 19-7 | 1474.87 | 1632.06 | 31.70% | 61.24% | +27.84 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Detroit Lions | W 20-17 | 1502.71 | 1485.11 | 41.98% | 50.93% | +11.66 | 3-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 21-30 | 1514.37 | 1668.14 | 21.22% | 71.83% | -8.80 | 3-1 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Chicago Bears | L 21-28 | 1505.57 | 1619.54 | 25.30% | 67.70% | -9.19 | 3-2 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Washington Redskins | L 10-14 | 1496.38 | 1627.79 | 23.45% | 69.57% | -6.46 | 3-3 |
| 1944-11-12 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-42 | 1489.92 | 1661.14 | 29.98% | 62.98% | -24.18 | 3-4 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 33-6 | 1465.74 | 1385.08 | 50.97% | 41.93% | +29.17 | 4-4 |
| 1944-11-26 | Detroit Lions | L 14-26 | 1494.91 | 1541.18 | 46.84% | 46.07% | -21.56 | 4-5 |
| 1944-12-10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 13-26 | 1473.35 | 1520.46 | 33.24% | 59.70% | -16.26 | 4-6 |
| 1944-10-01 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 6-27 | 1487.61 | 1640.10 | 21.35% | 71.70% | -13.51 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 19-14 | 1474.10 | 1451.61 | 56.46% | 36.47% | +11.01 | 1-1 |
| 1944-10-15 | Cleveland Rams | L 17-20 | 1485.11 | 1502.71 | 50.93% | 41.98% | -11.66 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Chicago Bears | T 21-21 | 1473.45 | 1621.12 | 21.82% | 71.23% | +1.58 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-29 | Green Bay Packers | L 0-14 | 1475.03 | 1676.94 | 26.40% | 66.58% | -13.54 | 1-3 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 27-6 | 1461.49 | 1428.93 | 44.10% | 48.80% | +29.63 | 2-3 |
| 1944-11-12 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 21-7 | 1491.12 | 1399.30 | 65.19% | 27.79% | +14.23 | 3-3 |
| 1944-11-19 | Chicago Bears | W 41-21 | 1505.35 | 1660.90 | 31.91% | 61.04% | +35.83 | 4-3 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 26-14 | 1541.18 | 1494.91 | 46.07% | 46.84% | +21.55 | 5-3 |
| 1944-12-03 | Boston Yanks | W 38-7 | 1562.73 | 1247.27 | 83.73% | 9.64% | +7.52 | 6-3 |
| 1944-09-17 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 14-7 | 1609.95 | 1459.47 | 71.51% | 21.54% | +7.87 | 1-0 |
| 1944-09-24 | Chicago Bears | W 42-28 | 1617.82 | 1654.33 | 48.24% | 44.67% | +22.28 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-01 | Detroit Lions | W 27-6 | 1640.10 | 1487.61 | 71.70% | 21.35% | +13.51 | 3-0 |
| 1944-10-08 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 34-7 | 1653.61 | 1489.17 | 72.85% | 20.22% | +14.53 | 4-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Cleveland Rams | W 30-21 | 1668.14 | 1514.37 | 71.83% | 21.22% | +8.80 | 5-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Detroit Lions | W 14-0 | 1676.94 | 1475.03 | 66.58% | 26.40% | +13.54 | 6-0 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-21 | 1690.48 | 1628.73 | 48.29% | 44.62% | -29.34 | 6-1 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 42-7 | 1661.14 | 1489.92 | 62.98% | 29.98% | +24.18 | 7-1 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ New York Giants | L 0-24 | 1685.32 | 1575.65 | 55.00% | 37.91% | -35.48 | 7-2 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 35-20 | 1649.84 | 1355.91 | 75.67% | 17.45% | +9.39 | 8-2 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Boston Yanks | W 22-10 | 1557.56 | 1251.60 | 76.66% | 16.48% | +7.93 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 14-7 | 1565.49 | 1440.60 | 57.06% | 35.87% | +12.83 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 23-0 | 1578.32 | 1457.73 | 68.42% | 24.59% | +16.21 | 3-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 17-24 | 1594.53 | 1426.10 | 73.22% | 19.85% | -25.41 | 3-1 |
| 1944-11-05 | Boston Yanks | W 31-0 | 1569.12 | 1239.54 | 84.45% | 8.96% | +6.99 | 4-1 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | T 21-21 | 1576.11 | 1474.85 | 53.85% | 39.07% | -0.46 | 4-1 |
| 1944-11-19 | Green Bay Packers | W 24-0 | 1575.65 | 1685.32 | 37.91% | 55.00% | +35.48 | 5-1 |
| 1944-11-26 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 7-0 | 1611.13 | 1352.73 | 80.36% | 12.88% | +4.76 | 6-1 |
| 1944-12-03 | Washington Redskins | W 16-13 | 1615.89 | 1594.08 | 56.36% | 36.56% | +8.55 | 7-1 |
| 1944-12-10 | @ Washington Redskins | W 31-0 | 1624.44 | 1585.53 | 45.01% | 47.90% | +35.37 | 8-1 |
| 1944-09-26 | @ Boston Yanks | W 28-7 | 1384.64 | 1275.00 | 55.00% | 37.92% | +23.41 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-08 | Washington Redskins | T 31-31 | 1408.05 | 1607.39 | 26.69% | 66.29% | +1.26 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Boston Yanks | W 38-0 | 1409.31 | 1239.04 | 73.39% | 19.68% | +16.79 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ New York Giants | W 24-17 | 1426.10 | 1594.53 | 19.85% | 73.22% | +25.41 | 3-0 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 21-7 | 1451.51 | 1406.03 | 45.95% | 46.95% | +23.34 | 4-0 |
| 1944-11-12 | New York Giants | T 21-21 | 1474.85 | 1576.11 | 39.07% | 53.85% | +0.46 | 4-0 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Washington Redskins | W 37-7 | 1475.31 | 1643.52 | 19.87% | 73.20% | +52.58 | 5-0 |
| 1944-11-26 | Chicago Bears | L 7-28 | 1527.89 | 1625.06 | 39.63% | 53.28% | -24.40 | 5-1 |
| 1944-12-03 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 34-0 | 1503.49 | 1347.97 | 72.00% | 21.06% | +16.97 | 6-1 |
| 1944-12-10 | Cleveland Rams | W 26-13 | 1520.46 | 1473.35 | 59.70% | 33.24% | +16.26 | 7-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | T 31-31 | 1607.39 | 1408.05 | 66.29% | 26.69% | -1.26 | 0-0 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Boston Yanks | W 21-14 | 1606.13 | 1243.66 | 80.76% | 12.49% | +4.61 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 17-14 | 1610.74 | 1427.78 | 74.54% | 18.55% | +4.46 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 42-20 | 1615.20 | 1441.52 | 73.71% | 19.37% | +12.59 | 3-0 |
| 1944-11-05 | Cleveland Rams | W 14-10 | 1627.79 | 1496.38 | 69.57% | 23.45% | +6.46 | 4-0 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 10-0 | 1634.25 | 1382.69 | 71.81% | 21.24% | +9.27 | 5-0 |
| 1944-11-19 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-37 | 1643.52 | 1475.31 | 73.20% | 19.87% | -52.58 | 5-1 |
| 1944-11-26 | Boston Yanks | W 14-7 | 1590.94 | 1250.41 | 84.97% | 8.46% | +3.14 | 6-1 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ New York Giants | L 13-16 | 1594.08 | 1615.89 | 36.56% | 56.36% | -8.55 | 6-2 |
| 1944-12-10 | New York Giants | L 0-31 | 1585.53 | 1624.44 | 47.90% | 45.01% | -35.37 | 6-3 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1944-12-17 | @ New York Giants | W 14-7 | 1659.23 | 1659.81 | 42.92% | 57.08% | +18.65 | 1-0 |
| 1944-12-17 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-14 | 1659.81 | 1659.23 | 57.08% | 42.92% | -18.65 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1944-10-29 | 17.04% | Boston Yanks | 1222.25 | 17 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 1423.32 | 14 |
| 2 | 1944-10-29 | 19.85% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1426.10 | 24 | @ New York Giants | 1594.53 | 17 |
| 3 | 1944-11-19 | 19.87% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1475.31 | 37 | @ Washington Redskins | 1643.52 | 7 |
| 4 | 1944-10-08 | 31.70% | @ Cleveland Rams | 1474.87 | 19 | Chicago Bears | 1632.06 | 7 |
| 5 | 1944-11-19 | 31.91% | @ Detroit Lions | 1505.35 | 41 | Chicago Bears | 1660.90 | 21 |
| 6 | 1944-11-19 | 33.41% | @ Boston Yanks | 1229.72 | 13 | Brooklyn Tigers | 1373.42 | 6 |
| 7 | 1944-09-24 | 34.68% | Cleveland Rams | 1464.04 | 30 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 1500.00 | 28 |
| 8 | 1944-11-19 | 37.91% | @ New York Giants | 1575.65 | 24 | Green Bay Packers | 1685.32 | 0 |
| 9 | 1944-10-15 | 41.98% | Cleveland Rams | 1502.71 | 20 | @ Detroit Lions | 1485.11 | 17 |
| 10 | 1944-12-17 * | 42.92% | Green Bay Packers | 1659.23 | 14 | @ New York Giants | 1659.81 | 7 |
| 11 | 1944-11-05 | 44.10% | Detroit Lions | 1461.49 | 27 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 1428.93 | 6 |
| 12 | 1944-11-05 | 44.62% | @ Chicago Bears | 1628.73 | 21 | Green Bay Packers | 1690.48 | 0 |
| 13 | 1944-12-10 | 45.01% | New York Giants | 1624.44 | 31 | @ Washington Redskins | 1585.53 | 0 |
| 14 | 1944-11-05 | 45.95% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1451.51 | 21 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 1406.03 | 7 |
| 15 | 1944-11-26 | 46.07% | Detroit Lions | 1541.18 | 26 | @ Cleveland Rams | 1494.91 | 14 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1944-11-19 | 52.58 | Philadelphia Eagles | 37 | 1475.31 | 19.87% | @ Washington Redskins | 7 | 1643.52 | 73.20% |
| 2 | 1944-11-19 | 35.84 | @ Detroit Lions | 41 | 1505.35 | 31.91% | Chicago Bears | 21 | 1660.90 | 61.04% |
| 3 | 1944-11-19 | 35.48 | @ New York Giants | 24 | 1575.65 | 37.91% | Green Bay Packers | 0 | 1685.32 | 55.00% |
| 4 | 1944-12-10 | 35.37 | New York Giants | 31 | 1624.44 | 45.01% | @ Washington Redskins | 0 | 1585.53 | 47.90% |
| 5 | 1944-11-05 | 29.63 | Detroit Lions | 27 | 1461.49 | 44.10% | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 6 | 1428.93 | 48.80% |
| 6 | 1944-11-05 | 29.34 | @ Chicago Bears | 21 | 1628.73 | 44.62% | Green Bay Packers | 0 | 1690.48 | 48.29% |
| 7 | 1944-11-19 | 29.17 | Cleveland Rams | 33 | 1465.74 | 50.97% | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 6 | 1385.08 | 41.93% |
| 8 | 1944-10-08 | 27.85 | @ Cleveland Rams | 19 | 1474.87 | 31.70% | Chicago Bears | 7 | 1632.06 | 61.24% |
| 9 | 1944-10-29 | 25.41 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 1426.10 | 19.85% | @ New York Giants | 17 | 1594.53 | 73.22% |
| 10 | 1944-11-26 | 24.40 | Chicago Bears | 28 | 1625.06 | 53.28% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 1527.89 | 39.63% |
| 11 | 1944-11-12 | 24.18 | Green Bay Packers | 42 | 1661.14 | 62.98% | @ Cleveland Rams | 7 | 1489.92 | 29.98% |
| 12 | 1944-09-26 | 23.41 | Philadelphia Eagles | 28 | 1384.64 | 55.00% | @ Boston Yanks | 7 | 1275.00 | 37.92% |
| 13 | 1944-11-05 | 23.34 | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 1451.51 | 45.95% | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 7 | 1406.03 | 46.95% |
| 14 | 1944-09-24 | 22.28 | @ Green Bay Packers | 42 | 1617.82 | 48.24% | Chicago Bears | 28 | 1654.33 | 44.67% |
| 15 | 1944-11-26 | 21.56 | Detroit Lions | 26 | 1541.18 | 46.07% | @ Cleveland Rams | 14 | 1494.91 | 46.84% |
| 16 | 1944-11-19 | 20.69 | @ Boston Yanks | 13 | 1229.72 | 33.41% | Brooklyn Tigers | 6 | 1373.42 | 59.52% |
| 17 | 1944-12-17 * | 18.65 | Green Bay Packers | 14 | 1659.23 | 42.92% | @ New York Giants | 7 | 1659.81 | 57.08% |
| 18 | 1944-10-29 | 17.29 | Boston Yanks | 17 | 1222.25 | 17.04% | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 14 | 1423.32 | 76.09% |
| 19 | 1944-12-03 | 16.97 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 34 | 1503.49 | 72.00% | Brooklyn Tigers | 0 | 1347.97 | 21.06% |
| 20 | 1944-10-15 | 16.91 | @ Chicago Bears | 34 | 1604.21 | 69.38% | Card Pitt Carpets | 7 | 1474.64 | 23.64% |
| 21 | 1944-10-22 | 16.79 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 38 | 1409.31 | 73.39% | Boston Yanks | 0 | 1239.04 | 19.68% |
| 22 | 1944-12-10 | 16.26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 26 | 1520.46 | 59.70% | Cleveland Rams | 13 | 1473.35 | 33.24% |
| 23 | 1944-10-22 | 16.21 | @ New York Giants | 23 | 1578.32 | 68.42% | Card Pitt Carpets | 0 | 1457.73 | 24.59% |
| 24 | 1944-12-03 | 15.06 | Chicago Bears | 49 | 1649.46 | 76.42% | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 7 | 1346.53 | 16.72% |
| 25 | 1944-10-08 | 14.53 | @ Green Bay Packers | 34 | 1653.61 | 72.85% | Card Pitt Carpets | 7 | 1489.17 | 20.22% |