1943 NFL Season
40 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Chicago Bears
6th Title
Last Title: 1941
Runner-Up
Washington Redskins
5th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1942
Biggest Overachiever
Green Bay Packers
1.75 wins above expected
7 wins · 5.75 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Chicago Cardinals
2.94 wins below expected
0 wins · 2.94 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | — | 197 | 170 | +27 | 5.27 | +1.23 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins Playoffs | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | — | 229 | 137 | +92 | 6.70 | -0.20 |
| 3 | Phil Pitt Steagles | 5 | 4 | 1 | .550 | 1 | 225 | 230 | -5 | 5.20 | +0.30 |
| 4 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | 4.5 | 65 | 234 | -169 | 3.58 | -1.58 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears Division | 8 | 1 | 1 | .850 | — | 303 | 157 | +146 | 6.97 | +1.53 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 2 | 1 | .750 | 1 | 264 | 172 | +92 | 5.75 | +1.75 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 3 | 6 | 1 | .350 | 5 | 178 | 218 | -40 | 3.60 | -0.10 |
| 4 | Chicago Cardinals | 0 | 10 | 0 | .000 | 8.5 | 95 | 238 | -143 | 2.94 | -2.94 |
Playoff Bracket
Division Playoff
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | West | 1676 | 8.5 | 6.97 | +1.53 | 91.69% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1608 | 7.5 | 5.75 | +1.75 | 92.64% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1578 | 6.5 | 6.70 | -0.20 | 53.89% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1543 | 6.5 | 5.27 | +1.23 | 85.88% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Phil Pitt Steagles | East | 1504 | 5.5 | 5.20 | +0.30 | 67.90% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1392 | 3.5 | 3.60 | -0.10 | 59.63% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | East | 1365 | 2 | 3.58 | -1.58 | 32.51% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Chicago Cardinals | West | 1332 | 0 | 2.94 | -2.94 | 4.54% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Within East
| Team | Dodgers | Giants | Steagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | — |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Phil Pitt Steagles |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
1-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers |
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Phil Pitt Steagles |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
Within West
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Dodgers | Giants | Steagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 2.50% | 2.50% | 3.75% | 3.75% | — | — | — | 12.50% |
| 7–13 | 2.50% | 5.00% | 1.25% | 5.00% | 6.25% | — | 2.50% | 22.50% |
| 14–20 | 3.75% | 1.25% | 2.50% | 1.25% | 1.25% | 5.00% | 2.50% | 17.50% |
| 21–27 | 3.75% | 5.00% | 1.25% | 5.00% | 1.25% | 2.50% | 1.25% | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 6.25% | 1.25% | 1.25% | — | 2.50% | — | 11.25% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 5.00% | 2.50% | 2.50% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 42+ | — | 2.50% | 2.50% | 1.25% | — | — | — | 6.25% |
| Total | 12.50% | 22.50% | 17.50% | 20.00% | 11.25% | 10.00% | 6.25% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.45 | 19.45 | +0.00 |
| SD | 13.19 | 13.19 | 19.58 |
| CV | 0.68 | 0.68 | — |
| Max | 56 | 56 | +49 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -49 |
Games Played: 40
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | 100% |
Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 6.50 | 23.40 | -16.90 |
| SD | 6.95 | 13.54 | 14.26 |
| CV | 1.07 | 0.58 | — |
| Max | 21 | 48 | +7 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -38 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 21–27 | — | 10.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 42+ | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| Total | 10.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 60.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 30.30 | 15.70 | +14.60 |
| SD | 14.37 | 8.23 | 16.77 |
| CV | 0.47 | 0.52 | — |
| Max | 56 | 24 | +49 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -14 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 7–13 | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 40.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 30.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% | — | 100% |
Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 9.50 | 23.80 | -14.30 |
| SD | 8.13 | 11.52 | 6.48 |
| CV | 0.86 | 0.48 | — |
| Max | 24 | 35 | -6 |
| Min | 0 | 7 | -21 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 30.00% | — | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | 30.00% | 10.00% | 100% |
Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.80 | 21.80 | -4.00 |
| SD | 11.83 | 16.44 | 17.59 |
| CV | 0.66 | 0.75 | — |
| Max | 35 | 42 | +27 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -22 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | 20.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 40.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 100% |
Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 26.40 | 17.20 | +9.20 |
| SD | 11.36 | 9.21 | 17.20 |
| CV | 0.43 | 0.54 | — |
| Max | 38 | 33 | +24 |
| Min | 7 | 6 | -26 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | 30.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| Total | 20.00% | 40.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 100% |
New York Giants — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.70 | 17.00 | +2.70 |
| SD | 11.92 | 17.69 | 23.35 |
| CV | 0.60 | 1.04 | — |
| Max | 42 | 56 | +28 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -49 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | 30.00% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | 30.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | 100% |
Phil Pitt Steagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 22.50 | 23.00 | -0.50 |
| SD | 9.35 | 16.00 | 17.46 |
| CV | 0.42 | 0.70 | — |
| Max | 35 | 48 | +21 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -28 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 28–34 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| Total | 10.00% | 40.00% | 30.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 22.90 | 13.70 | +9.20 |
| SD | 14.11 | 9.73 | 19.66 |
| CV | 0.62 | 0.71 | — |
| Max | 48 | 31 | +38 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -24 |
Games Played: 10
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | 5.75 | +1.75 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 8.5 | 6.97 | +1.53 |
| 3 | New York Giants | 6.5 | 5.27 | +1.23 |
| 4 | Phil Pitt Steagles | 5.5 | 5.20 | +0.30 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 3.5 | 3.60 | -0.10 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cardinals | 0 | 2.94 | -2.94 |
| 2 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | 3.58 | -1.58 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 6.5 | 6.70 | -0.20 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 3.5 | 3.60 | -0.10 |
| 5 | Phil Pitt Steagles | 5.5 | 5.20 | +0.30 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 4 | Nov 21 – Dec 12 | 1 in 20 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 7 | Oct 3 – Nov 14 | 1 in 12 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 4 | Oct 10 – Oct 31 | 1 in 7 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 3 | Nov 14 – Dec 5 | 1 in 5 |
| 5 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | Nov 7 – Nov 14 | 1 in 4 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cardinals | 10 | Sep 19 – Nov 28 | 1 in 76 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 3 | Nov 28 – Dec 12 | 1 in 57 |
| 3 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 6 | Sep 26 – Oct 31 | 1 in 16 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 1 | Oct 17 – Oct 17 | 1 in 3 |
| 5 | Phil Pitt Steagles | 2 | Oct 17 – Oct 24 | 1 in 3 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 59.87% | 24.87% | 11.84% | 3.42% |
| New York Giants | 19.51% | 32.50% | 31.86% | 16.13% |
| Phil Pitt Steagles | 17.58% | 32.44% | 33.41% | 16.57% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 3.04% | 10.19% | 22.89% | 63.88% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 69.10% | 25.70% | 4.69% | 0.51% |
| Green Bay Packers | 27.22% | 52.29% | 16.28% | 4.21% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.74% | 14.85% | 46.90% | 35.51% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.94% | 7.16% | 32.13% | 59.77% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 38.97% | 27.88% | 15.53% | 10.02% | 4.51% | 2.13% | 0.85% | 0.11% |
| Washington Redskins | 31.02% | 27.16% | 17.14% | 11.70% | 7.48% | 3.69% | 1.47% | 0.34% |
| Green Bay Packers | 13.25% | 16.15% | 21.25% | 21.32% | 12.67% | 8.84% | 4.36% | 2.16% |
| New York Giants | 8.34% | 12.40% | 17.52% | 17.93% | 18.72% | 12.67% | 8.39% | 4.03% |
| Phil Pitt Steagles | 6.67% | 11.72% | 17.56% | 18.02% | 20.20% | 13.14% | 8.72% | 3.97% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.78% | 1.96% | 4.54% | 8.61% | 14.47% | 23.34% | 22.84% | 23.46% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 0.76% | 2.17% | 4.60% | 8.31% | 13.20% | 18.71% | 28.93% | 23.32% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.21% | 0.56% | 1.86% | 4.09% | 8.75% | 17.48% | 24.44% | 42.61% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 59.87% | 40.13% |
| New York Giants | 19.51% | 80.49% |
| Phil Pitt Steagles | 17.58% | 82.42% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 3.04% | 96.96% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 69.10% | 30.90% |
| Green Bay Packers | 27.22% | 72.78% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.74% | 97.26% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.94% | 99.06% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 69.10% | 52.09% |
| Green Bay Packers | 27.22% | 18.76% |
| Washington Redskins | 59.87% | 18.32% |
| New York Giants | 19.51% | 5.30% |
| Phil Pitt Steagles | 17.58% | 3.91% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.74% | 1.00% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 3.04% | 0.33% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.94% | 0.29% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Brooklyn Dodgers | Chicago Bears | Chicago Cardinals | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | Phil Pitt Steagles | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.08% | ||||
| Chicago Bears | 1.88% | 9.87% | 9.95% | 30.39% | ||||
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.22% | ||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 0.55% | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.77% | 4.14% | 3.46% | 10.39% | ||||
| New York Giants | 3.22% | 0.17% | 0.35% | 1.56% | ||||
| Phil Pitt Steagles | 2.45% | 0.08% | 0.27% | 1.11% | ||||
| Washington Redskins | 11.15% | 0.38% | 1.08% | 5.71% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 73.56% |
| Washington Redskins | 26.44% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Bears | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 73.56% | |
| Washington Redskins | 26.44% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1943-09-26 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-27 | 1446.96 | 1405.95 | 40.53% | 51.47% | -20.22 | 0-1 |
| 1943-10-02 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | L 0-17 | 1426.74 | 1500.00 | 26.08% | 66.08% | -10.58 | 0-2 |
| 1943-10-10 | @ Washington Redskins | L 0-27 | 1416.16 | 1566.98 | 18.45% | 73.92% | -9.54 | 0-3 |
| 1943-10-17 | New York Giants | L 0-20 | 1406.62 | 1492.87 | 45.03% | 46.96% | -19.19 | 0-4 |
| 1943-10-24 | @ Chicago Bears | L 21-33 | 1387.43 | 1642.77 | 11.10% | 81.68% | -3.85 | 0-5 |
| 1943-10-31 | Washington Redskins | L 10-48 | 1383.58 | 1606.80 | 27.10% | 65.04% | -16.41 | 0-6 |
| 1943-11-07 | Chicago Cardinals | W 7-0 | 1367.17 | 1358.73 | 58.18% | 33.87% | +8.71 | 1-6 |
| 1943-11-14 | Phil Pitt Steagles | W 13-7 | 1375.88 | 1503.29 | 39.23% | 52.78% | +12.18 | 2-6 |
| 1943-11-21 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-31 | 1388.06 | 1579.76 | 30.82% | 61.26% | -14.74 | 2-7 |
| 1943-11-28 | @ New York Giants | L 7-24 | 1373.32 | 1493.18 | 21.26% | 71.01% | -8.70 | 2-8 |
| 1943-09-26 | @ Green Bay Packers | T 21-21 | 1618.34 | 1550.00 | 44.39% | 47.60% | +0.07 | 0-0 |
| 1943-10-03 | @ Detroit Lions | W 27-21 | 1618.41 | 1426.18 | 61.33% | 30.76% | +7.36 | 1-0 |
| 1943-10-10 | Chicago Cardinals | W 20-0 | 1625.77 | 1390.04 | 80.45% | 12.25% | +5.48 | 2-0 |
| 1943-10-17 | Phil Pitt Steagles | W 48-21 | 1631.25 | 1523.03 | 69.84% | 22.40% | +11.52 | 3-0 |
| 1943-10-24 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 33-21 | 1642.77 | 1387.43 | 81.68% | 11.10% | +3.85 | 4-0 |
| 1943-10-31 | Detroit Lions | W 35-14 | 1646.62 | 1406.14 | 80.75% | 11.96% | +5.49 | 5-0 |
| 1943-11-07 | Green Bay Packers | W 21-7 | 1652.11 | 1583.59 | 65.54% | 26.61% | +9.78 | 6-0 |
| 1943-11-14 | @ New York Giants | W 56-7 | 1661.89 | 1511.32 | 55.94% | 36.09% | +24.45 | 7-0 |
| 1943-11-21 | @ Washington Redskins | L 7-21 | 1686.34 | 1629.10 | 42.81% | 49.18% | -15.32 | 7-1 |
| 1943-11-28 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 35-24 | 1671.02 | 1337.76 | 75.92% | 16.53% | +5.47 | 8-1 |
| 1943-09-19 | @ Detroit Lions | L 17-35 | 1422.51 | 1389.88 | 39.37% | 52.64% | -16.07 | 0-1 |
| 1943-10-03 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-28 | 1406.44 | 1549.93 | 37.04% | 54.98% | -16.40 | 0-2 |
| 1943-10-10 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-20 | 1390.04 | 1625.77 | 12.25% | 80.45% | -5.48 | 0-3 |
| 1943-10-17 | Detroit Lions | L 0-7 | 1384.56 | 1410.28 | 53.60% | 38.42% | -13.35 | 0-4 |
| 1943-10-24 | @ Washington Redskins | L 7-13 | 1371.21 | 1603.75 | 12.44% | 80.24% | -3.05 | 0-5 |
| 1943-10-31 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | L 13-34 | 1368.16 | 1493.61 | 20.74% | 71.56% | -9.43 | 0-6 |
| 1943-11-07 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 0-7 | 1358.73 | 1367.17 | 33.87% | 58.18% | -8.70 | 0-7 |
| 1943-11-14 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-35 | 1350.03 | 1573.80 | 12.99% | 79.65% | -5.96 | 0-8 |
| 1943-11-21 | @ New York Giants | L 13-24 | 1344.07 | 1486.87 | 19.15% | 73.19% | -6.31 | 0-9 |
| 1943-11-28 | Chicago Bears | L 24-35 | 1337.76 | 1671.02 | 16.53% | 75.92% | -5.47 | 0-10 |
| 1943-09-19 | Chicago Cardinals | W 35-17 | 1389.88 | 1422.51 | 52.64% | 39.37% | +16.07 | 1-0 |
| 1943-09-26 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 27-0 | 1405.95 | 1446.96 | 51.47% | 40.53% | +20.23 | 2-0 |
| 1943-10-03 | Chicago Bears | L 21-27 | 1426.18 | 1618.41 | 30.76% | 61.33% | -7.36 | 2-1 |
| 1943-10-10 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-35 | 1418.82 | 1566.33 | 18.74% | 73.62% | -8.54 | 2-2 |
| 1943-10-17 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 7-0 | 1410.28 | 1384.56 | 38.42% | 53.60% | +13.35 | 3-2 |
| 1943-10-24 | Green Bay Packers | L 6-27 | 1423.63 | 1547.64 | 39.70% | 52.30% | -17.49 | 3-3 |
| 1943-10-31 | @ Chicago Bears | L 14-35 | 1406.14 | 1646.62 | 11.96% | 80.75% | -5.49 | 3-4 |
| 1943-11-07 | New York Giants | T 0-0 | 1400.65 | 1511.51 | 41.53% | 50.46% | +0.20 | 3-4 |
| 1943-11-14 | @ Washington Redskins | L 20-42 | 1400.85 | 1622.96 | 13.10% | 79.53% | -6.15 | 3-5 |
| 1943-11-21 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | L 34-35 | 1394.70 | 1491.10 | 23.60% | 68.61% | -2.33 | 3-6 |
| 1943-09-26 | Chicago Bears | T 21-21 | 1550.00 | 1618.34 | 47.60% | 44.39% | -0.07 | 0-0 |
| 1943-10-03 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 28-7 | 1549.93 | 1406.44 | 54.98% | 37.04% | +16.40 | 1-0 |
| 1943-10-10 | Detroit Lions | W 35-14 | 1566.33 | 1418.82 | 73.62% | 18.74% | +8.54 | 2-0 |
| 1943-10-17 | Washington Redskins | L 7-33 | 1574.87 | 1576.52 | 56.85% | 35.19% | -27.23 | 2-1 |
| 1943-10-24 | @ Detroit Lions | W 27-6 | 1547.64 | 1423.63 | 52.30% | 39.70% | +17.50 | 3-1 |
| 1943-10-31 | @ New York Giants | W 35-21 | 1565.14 | 1529.96 | 39.72% | 52.29% | +18.45 | 4-1 |
| 1943-11-07 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-21 | 1583.59 | 1652.11 | 26.61% | 65.54% | -9.79 | 4-2 |
| 1943-11-14 | Chicago Cardinals | W 35-14 | 1573.80 | 1350.03 | 79.65% | 12.99% | +5.96 | 5-2 |
| 1943-11-21 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 31-7 | 1579.76 | 1388.06 | 61.26% | 30.82% | +14.74 | 6-2 |
| 1943-12-05 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | W 38-28 | 1594.50 | 1518.37 | 45.51% | 46.48% | +13.97 | 7-2 |
| 1943-10-09 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | L 14-28 | 1505.32 | 1510.58 | 34.28% | 57.76% | -12.45 | 0-1 |
| 1943-10-17 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 20-0 | 1492.87 | 1406.62 | 46.96% | 45.03% | +19.18 | 1-1 |
| 1943-10-24 | Phil Pitt Steagles | W 42-14 | 1512.05 | 1511.51 | 57.14% | 34.90% | +17.91 | 2-1 |
| 1943-10-31 | Green Bay Packers | L 21-35 | 1529.96 | 1565.14 | 52.29% | 39.72% | -18.45 | 2-2 |
| 1943-11-07 | @ Detroit Lions | T 0-0 | 1511.51 | 1400.65 | 50.46% | 41.53% | -0.19 | 2-2 |
| 1943-11-14 | Chicago Bears | L 7-56 | 1511.32 | 1661.89 | 36.09% | 55.94% | -24.45 | 2-3 |
| 1943-11-21 | Chicago Cardinals | W 24-13 | 1486.87 | 1344.07 | 73.19% | 19.15% | +6.31 | 3-3 |
| 1943-11-28 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 24-7 | 1493.18 | 1373.32 | 71.01% | 21.26% | +8.69 | 4-3 |
| 1943-12-05 | Washington Redskins | W 14-10 | 1501.87 | 1619.49 | 40.59% | 51.41% | +9.71 | 5-3 |
| 1943-12-12 | @ Washington Redskins | W 31-7 | 1511.58 | 1609.78 | 23.42% | 68.80% | +31.53 | 6-3 |
| 1943-10-02 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 17-0 | 1500.00 | 1426.74 | 66.08% | 26.08% | +10.58 | 1-0 |
| 1943-10-09 | New York Giants | W 28-14 | 1510.58 | 1505.32 | 57.76% | 34.28% | +12.45 | 2-0 |
| 1943-10-17 | @ Chicago Bears | L 21-48 | 1523.03 | 1631.25 | 22.40% | 69.84% | -11.52 | 2-1 |
| 1943-10-24 | @ New York Giants | L 14-42 | 1511.51 | 1512.05 | 34.90% | 57.14% | -17.90 | 2-2 |
| 1943-10-31 | Chicago Cardinals | W 34-13 | 1493.61 | 1368.16 | 71.56% | 20.74% | +9.42 | 3-2 |
| 1943-11-07 | Washington Redskins | T 14-14 | 1503.03 | 1623.21 | 40.23% | 51.77% | +0.26 | 3-2 |
| 1943-11-14 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 7-13 | 1503.29 | 1375.88 | 52.78% | 39.23% | -12.19 | 3-3 |
| 1943-11-21 | Detroit Lions | W 35-34 | 1491.10 | 1394.70 | 68.61% | 23.60% | +2.33 | 4-3 |
| 1943-11-28 | @ Washington Redskins | W 27-14 | 1493.43 | 1644.42 | 18.44% | 73.93% | +24.94 | 5-3 |
| 1943-12-05 | Green Bay Packers | L 28-38 | 1518.37 | 1594.50 | 46.48% | 45.51% | -13.97 | 5-4 |
| 1943-10-10 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 27-0 | 1566.98 | 1416.16 | 73.92% | 18.45% | +9.54 | 1-0 |
| 1943-10-17 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 33-7 | 1576.52 | 1574.87 | 35.19% | 56.85% | +27.23 | 2-0 |
| 1943-10-24 | Chicago Cardinals | W 13-7 | 1603.75 | 1371.21 | 80.24% | 12.44% | +3.05 | 3-0 |
| 1943-10-31 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 48-10 | 1606.80 | 1383.58 | 65.04% | 27.10% | +16.41 | 4-0 |
| 1943-11-07 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | T 14-14 | 1623.21 | 1503.03 | 51.77% | 40.23% | -0.25 | 4-0 |
| 1943-11-14 | Detroit Lions | W 42-20 | 1622.96 | 1400.85 | 79.53% | 13.10% | +6.14 | 5-0 |
| 1943-11-21 | Chicago Bears | W 21-7 | 1629.10 | 1686.34 | 49.18% | 42.81% | +15.32 | 6-0 |
| 1943-11-28 | Phil Pitt Steagles | L 14-27 | 1644.42 | 1493.43 | 73.93% | 18.44% | -24.93 | 6-1 |
| 1943-12-05 | @ New York Giants | L 10-14 | 1619.49 | 1501.87 | 51.41% | 40.59% | -9.71 | 6-2 |
| 1943-12-12 | New York Giants | L 7-31 | 1609.78 | 1511.58 | 68.80% | 23.42% | -31.53 | 6-3 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1943-12-26 | Washington Redskins | W 41-21 | 1676.49 | 1604.34 | 70.54% | 29.46% | +11.53 | 1-0 |
| 1943-12-19 | Washington Redskins | L 0-28 | 1543.11 | 1578.25 | 56.35% | 43.65% | -26.09 | 0-1 |
| 1943-12-19 | @ New York Giants | W 28-0 | 1578.25 | 1543.11 | 43.65% | 56.35% | +26.09 | 1-0 |
| 1943-12-26 | @ Chicago Bears | L 21-41 | 1604.34 | 1676.49 | 29.46% | 70.54% | -11.52 | 1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1943-11-28 | 18.44% | Phil Pitt Steagles | 1493.43 | 27 | @ Washington Redskins | 1644.42 | 14 |
| 2 | 1943-12-12 | 23.42% | New York Giants | 1511.58 | 31 | @ Washington Redskins | 1609.78 | 7 |
| 3 | 1943-10-17 | 35.19% | Washington Redskins | 1576.52 | 33 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1574.87 | 7 |
| 4 | 1943-10-17 | 38.42% | Detroit Lions | 1410.28 | 7 | @ Chicago Cardinals | 1384.56 | 0 |
| 5 | 1943-11-14 | 39.23% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1375.88 | 13 | Phil Pitt Steagles | 1503.29 | 7 |
| 6 | 1943-10-31 | 39.72% | Green Bay Packers | 1565.14 | 35 | @ New York Giants | 1529.96 | 21 |
| 7 | 1943-12-05 | 40.59% | @ New York Giants | 1501.87 | 14 | Washington Redskins | 1619.49 | 10 |
| 8 | 1943-12-19 * | 43.65% | Washington Redskins | 1578.25 | 28 | @ New York Giants | 1543.11 | 0 |
| 9 | 1943-12-05 | 45.51% | Green Bay Packers | 1594.50 | 38 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | 1518.37 | 28 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1943-12-12 | 31.53 | New York Giants | 31 | 1511.58 | 23.42% | @ Washington Redskins | 7 | 1609.78 | 68.80% |
| 2 | 1943-10-17 | 27.23 | Washington Redskins | 33 | 1576.52 | 35.19% | @ Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1574.87 | 56.85% |
| 3 | 1943-12-19 * | 26.09 | Washington Redskins | 28 | 1578.25 | 43.65% | @ New York Giants | 0 | 1543.11 | 56.35% |
| 4 | 1943-11-28 | 24.94 | Phil Pitt Steagles | 27 | 1493.43 | 18.44% | @ Washington Redskins | 14 | 1644.42 | 73.93% |
| 5 | 1943-11-14 | 24.45 | Chicago Bears | 56 | 1661.89 | 55.94% | @ New York Giants | 7 | 1511.32 | 36.09% |
| 6 | 1943-09-26 | 20.23 | @ Detroit Lions | 27 | 1405.95 | 51.47% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1446.96 | 40.53% |
| 7 | 1943-10-17 | 19.19 | New York Giants | 20 | 1492.87 | 46.96% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1406.62 | 45.03% |
| 8 | 1943-10-31 | 18.45 | Green Bay Packers | 35 | 1565.14 | 39.72% | @ New York Giants | 21 | 1529.96 | 52.29% |
| 9 | 1943-10-24 | 17.91 | @ New York Giants | 42 | 1512.05 | 57.14% | Phil Pitt Steagles | 14 | 1511.51 | 34.90% |
| 10 | 1943-10-24 | 17.50 | Green Bay Packers | 27 | 1547.64 | 52.30% | @ Detroit Lions | 6 | 1423.63 | 39.70% |
| 11 | 1943-10-31 | 16.41 | Washington Redskins | 48 | 1606.80 | 65.04% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 10 | 1383.58 | 27.10% |
| 12 | 1943-10-03 | 16.40 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1549.93 | 54.98% | @ Chicago Cardinals | 7 | 1406.44 | 37.04% |
| 13 | 1943-09-19 | 16.07 | @ Detroit Lions | 35 | 1389.88 | 52.64% | Chicago Cardinals | 17 | 1422.51 | 39.37% |
| 14 | 1943-11-21 | 15.32 | @ Washington Redskins | 21 | 1629.10 | 49.18% | Chicago Bears | 7 | 1686.34 | 42.81% |
| 15 | 1943-11-21 | 14.74 | Green Bay Packers | 31 | 1579.76 | 61.26% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 7 | 1388.06 | 30.82% |
| 16 | 1943-12-05 | 13.97 | Green Bay Packers | 38 | 1594.50 | 45.51% | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | 28 | 1518.37 | 46.48% |
| 17 | 1943-10-17 | 13.35 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 1410.28 | 38.42% | @ Chicago Cardinals | 0 | 1384.56 | 53.60% |
| 18 | 1943-10-09 | 12.45 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | 28 | 1510.58 | 57.76% | New York Giants | 14 | 1505.32 | 34.28% |
| 19 | 1943-11-14 | 12.19 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 13 | 1375.88 | 39.23% | Phil Pitt Steagles | 7 | 1503.29 | 52.78% |
| 20 | 1943-12-26 * | 11.53 | @ Chicago Bears | 41 | 1676.49 | 70.54% | Washington Redskins | 21 | 1604.34 | 29.46% |
| 21 | 1943-10-17 | 11.52 | @ Chicago Bears | 48 | 1631.25 | 69.84% | Phil Pitt Steagles | 21 | 1523.03 | 22.40% |
| 22 | 1943-10-02 | 10.58 | @ Phil Pitt Steagles | 17 | 1500.00 | 66.08% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1426.74 | 26.08% |
| 23 | 1943-11-07 | 9.79 | @ Chicago Bears | 21 | 1652.11 | 65.54% | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1583.59 | 26.61% |
| 24 | 1943-12-05 | 9.71 | @ New York Giants | 14 | 1501.87 | 40.59% | Washington Redskins | 10 | 1619.49 | 51.41% |
| 25 | 1943-10-10 | 9.54 | @ Washington Redskins | 27 | 1566.98 | 73.92% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1416.16 | 18.45% |