1942 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Washington Redskins

2nd Title

Last Title: 1937

Runner-Up

Chicago Bears

6th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1941

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

3.14 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.86 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Detroit Lions

3.87 wins below expected

0 wins · 3.87 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	10	1	0	.909	—	227	102	+125	6.88	+3.12
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	4	0	.636	3	167	119	+48	4.88	+2.12
3	New York Giants	5	5	1	.500	4.5	155	139	+16	5.94	-0.44
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	8	0	.273	7	100	168	-68	5.62	-2.62
5	Philadelphia Eagles	2	9	0	.182	8	134	239	-105	4.08	-2.08

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	0	0	1.000	—	376	84	+292	7.86	+3.14
2	Green Bay Packers	8	2	1	.773	2.5	300	215	+85	6.71	+1.79
3	Cleveland Rams	5	6	0	.455	6	150	207	-57	4.58	+0.42
4	Chicago Cardinals	3	8	0	.273	8	98	209	-111	4.59	-1.59
5	Detroit Lions	0	11	0	.000	11	38	263	-225	3.87	-3.87

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Washington Redskins 14

Chicago Bears 6

Dec 13

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1716	11	7.86	+3.14	100.00%	2	5	7	8	9	10	11
Washington Redskins	East	1609	10	6.88	+3.12	99.56%	0	4	6	7	8	9	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1600	8.5	6.71	+1.79	89.30%	1	4	6	7	8	9	11
New York Giants	East	1525	5.5	5.94	-0.44	42.19%	0	3	5	6	7	8	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1499	7	4.88	+2.12	95.77%	0	2	4	5	6	7	11
Cleveland Rams	West	1464	5	4.58	+0.42	74.97%	0	2	3	4	6	7	10
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1440	3	5.62	-2.62	10.87%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Chicago Cardinals	West	1410	3	4.59	-1.59	28.15%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1385	2	4.08	-2.08	17.35%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Detroit Lions	West	1353	0	3.87	-3.87	0.92%	0	1	3	4	5	6	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
New York Giants	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.27%	7.27%	0.91%	0.91%	0.91%	1.82%	19.09%
7–13	7.27%	1.82%	6.36%	5.45%	2.73%	2.73%	—	26.36%
14–20	7.27%	6.36%	—	1.82%	1.82%	2.73%	0.91%	20.91%
21–27	0.91%	5.45%	1.82%	3.64%	0.91%	—	0.91%	13.64%
28–34	0.91%	2.73%	1.82%	0.91%	—	—	1.82%	8.18%
35–41	0.91%	2.73%	2.73%	—	—	—	—	6.36%
42+	1.82%	—	0.91%	0.91%	1.82%	—	—	5.45%
Total	19.09%	26.36%	20.91%	13.64%	8.18%	6.36%	5.45%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.86	15.86	+0.00
SD	12.82	12.82	18.78
CV	0.81	0.81	—
Max	55	55	+47
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	54.55%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	45.45%	27.27%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.09	15.27	-6.18
SD	12.44	8.52	17.22
CV	1.37	0.56	—
Max	35	35	+21
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	27.27%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
42+	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	34.18	7.64	+26.55
SD	11.16	8.55	11.67
CV	0.33	1.12	—
Max	47	28	+47
Min	16	0	+14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
7–13	27.27%	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	54.55%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	8.91	19.00	-10.09
SD	6.71	17.61	15.17
CV	0.75	0.93	—
Max	24	55	+13
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
7–13	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
14–20	18.18%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	—	18.18%	100%

Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.64	18.82	-5.18
SD	9.83	17.53	20.33
CV	0.72	0.93	—
Max	28	47	+20
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	18.18%	27.27%	—	—	—	9.09%	54.55%
7–13	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	—	45.45%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.18%	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.45	23.91	-20.45
SD	3.50	11.56	10.01
CV	1.01	0.48	—
Max	7	42	-7
Min	0	7	-42

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	18.18%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	27.27%
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	—	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.27	19.55	+7.73
SD	14.78	13.53	19.00
CV	0.54	0.69	—
Max	55	44	+31
Min	7	0	-31

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	54.55%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	36.36%	18.18%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.09	12.64	+1.45
SD	8.62	8.31	11.94
CV	0.61	0.66	—
Max	35	26	+18
Min	7	0	-19

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	18.18%	9.09%	45.45%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.18%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.18	21.73	-9.55
SD	9.20	12.81	11.99
CV	0.75	0.59	—
Max	27	45	+10
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.18	10.82	+4.36
SD	8.69	10.41	13.49
CV	0.57	0.96	—
Max	35	28	+28
Min	0	0	-14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	18.18%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	36.36%
21–27	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	9.09%	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.64	9.27	+11.36
SD	8.39	7.99	9.51
CV	0.41	0.86	—
Max	33	27	+28
Min	7	0	-7

Games Played: 11

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	11	7.86	+3.14
2	Washington Redskins	10	6.88	+3.12
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	4.88	+2.12
4	Green Bay Packers	8.5	6.71	+1.79
5	Cleveland Rams	5	4.58	+0.42

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	0	3.87	-3.87
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	5.62	-2.62
3	Philadelphia Eagles	2	4.08	-2.08
4	Chicago Cardinals	3	4.59	-1.59
5	New York Giants	5.5	5.94	-0.44

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Redskins	9	Oct 4 – Nov 29	1 in 72
2	Chicago Bears	11	Sep 27 – Dec 6	1 in 54
3	Green Bay Packers	6	Oct 4 – Nov 8	1 in 16
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	Nov 1 – Nov 29	1 in 16
5	Cleveland Rams	2	Sep 20 – Sep 27	1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	11	Sep 20 – Nov 29	1 in 178
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	6	Nov 1 – Dec 6	1 in 61
3	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Sep 20 – Nov 8	1 in 52
4	Chicago Cardinals	6	Oct 25 – Dec 6	1 in 22
5	New York Giants	3	Oct 18 – Nov 1	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	47.74%	25.09%	15.11%	8.63%	3.43%
New York Giants	22.25%	25.54%	23.54%	17.71%	10.96%
Brooklyn Dodgers	17.16%	24.32%	24.08%	21.24%	13.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.43%	16.11%	22.54%	26.86%	25.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.42%	8.94%	14.73%	25.56%	47.35%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	62.50%	26.15%	8.20%	2.54%	0.61%
Green Bay Packers	28.47%	41.38%	19.02%	8.17%	2.96%
Chicago Cardinals	3.81%	12.75%	27.40%	29.71%	26.33%
Cleveland Rams	3.72%	12.74%	27.50%	29.84%	26.20%
Detroit Lions	1.50%	6.98%	17.88%	29.74%	43.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	43.16%	22.40%	14.43%	9.06%	4.36%	3.47%	1.54%	0.98%	0.47%	0.13%
Washington Redskins	18.15%	24.41%	16.31%	13.10%	9.81%	7.09%	4.79%	3.29%	2.01%	1.04%
Green Bay Packers	17.49%	16.54%	18.83%	16.72%	9.60%	8.49%	5.45%	3.81%	1.94%	1.13%
New York Giants	8.45%	12.05%	13.47%	13.82%	13.59%	11.06%	10.64%	7.77%	5.70%	3.45%
Brooklyn Dodgers	5.57%	9.65%	11.87%	13.74%	13.91%	12.08%	11.22%	9.60%	7.23%	5.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.36%	5.56%	7.36%	9.60%	12.69%	11.74%	13.49%	13.16%	12.97%	11.07%
Chicago Cardinals	1.92%	2.99%	5.72%	7.19%	10.64%	13.56%	14.09%	15.41%	14.06%	14.42%
Cleveland Rams	1.57%	2.99%	5.72%	7.11%	11.04%	13.88%	13.42%	15.08%	14.26%	14.93%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.77%	2.12%	3.51%	5.42%	7.41%	9.02%	13.20%	15.00%	21.65%	21.90%
Detroit Lions	0.56%	1.29%	2.78%	4.24%	6.95%	9.61%	12.16%	15.90%	19.71%	26.80%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	47.74%	52.26%
New York Giants	22.25%	77.75%
Brooklyn Dodgers	17.16%	82.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.43%	90.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.42%	96.58%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	62.50%	37.50%
Green Bay Packers	28.47%	71.53%
Chicago Cardinals	3.81%	96.19%
Cleveland Rams	3.72%	96.28%
Detroit Lions	1.50%	98.50%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	62.50%	44.45%
Washington Redskins	47.74%	20.47%
Green Bay Packers	28.47%	16.65%
New York Giants	22.25%	7.32%
Brooklyn Dodgers	17.16%	4.34%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.43%	2.66%
Cleveland Rams	3.72%	1.65%
Chicago Cardinals	3.81%	1.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.42%	0.66%
Detroit Lions	1.50%	0.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Brooklyn Dodgers	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Rams	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers		1.80%	0.45%	0.35%	0.16%	1.58%
Chicago Bears	7.94%						10.30%	1.77%	4.73%	19.71%
Chicago Cardinals	0.41%						0.29%	0.06%	0.13%	0.46%
Cleveland Rams	0.29%						0.68%	0.06%	0.18%	0.44%
Detroit Lions	0.12%						0.08%	0.03%	0.05%	0.17%
Green Bay Packers	4.06%						3.58%	0.84%	1.68%	6.49%
New York Giants		3.53%	0.67%	0.60%	0.23%	2.29%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.27%	0.11%	0.02%	0.06%	0.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers		1.42%	0.25%	0.15%	0.07%	0.77%
Washington Redskins		11.03%	0.98%	0.95%	0.53%	6.98%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	64.71%
Washington Redskins	35.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		64.71%
Washington Redskins	35.29%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 64.71% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.71%

Washington Redskins 35.29% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.29%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1942-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-14	1512.17	1449.04	57.66%	39.77%	+15.83	1-0
1942-10-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1528.00	1458.84	58.49%	38.94%	+15.50	2-0
1942-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-7	1543.50	1424.00	65.13%	32.31%	-14.83	2-1
1942-10-18	Washington Redskins	L 10-21	1528.67	1536.41	47.60%	49.83%	-13.65	2-2
1942-10-25	New York Giants	W 17-7	1515.02	1527.35	46.94%	50.49%	+13.79	3-2
1942-11-01	Cleveland Rams	L 0-17	1528.81	1452.83	59.42%	38.01%	-21.10	3-3
1942-11-08	Chicago Bears	L 0-35	1507.71	1657.05	28.67%	68.77%	-14.81	3-4
1942-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-14	1492.90	1375.23	64.89%	32.54%	-14.78	3-5
1942-11-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-23	1478.12	1589.98	33.28%	64.16%	-12.96	3-6
1942-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-13	1465.16	1490.18	45.13%	52.30%	-14.09	3-7
1942-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 0-10	1451.07	1514.08	39.79%	57.64%	-10.93	3-8
1942-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 44-28	1587.41	1547.87	54.36%	43.07%	+14.93	1-0
1942-10-04	@ Cleveland Rams	W 21-7	1602.34	1482.15	65.21%	32.22%	+10.51	2-0
1942-10-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 41-14	1612.85	1488.39	65.75%	31.69%	+14.36	3-0
1942-10-18	New York Giants	W 26-7	1627.21	1541.25	60.76%	36.67%	+13.90	4-0
1942-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-14	1641.11	1399.32	78.35%	19.10%	+9.33	5-0
1942-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 16-0	1650.44	1405.37	78.64%	18.81%	+6.61	6-0
1942-11-08	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 35-0	1657.05	1507.71	68.77%	28.67%	+14.81	7-0
1942-11-15	Green Bay Packers	W 38-7	1671.86	1609.43	57.56%	39.87%	+19.28	8-0
1942-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-0	1691.14	1365.68	84.73%	12.73%	+7.26	9-0
1942-11-29	Cleveland Rams	W 47-0	1698.40	1476.63	76.50%	20.94%	+12.59	10-0
1942-12-06	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 21-7	1710.99	1414.55	82.75%	14.70%	+4.84	11-0
1942-09-13	Cleveland Rams	W 7-0	1469.34	1463.21	49.60%	47.83%	+10.94	1-0
1942-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 13-0	1480.28	1490.63	47.23%	50.20%	+15.63	2-0
1942-10-04	Green Bay Packers	L 13-17	1495.91	1532.94	43.42%	54.01%	-7.52	2-1
1942-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-41	1488.39	1612.85	31.69%	65.75%	-14.36	2-2
1942-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 7-0	1474.03	1426.28	55.52%	41.91%	+9.62	3-2
1942-10-25	@ Cleveland Rams	L 3-7	1483.65	1443.44	54.46%	42.97%	-9.39	3-3
1942-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-55	1474.26	1581.23	33.90%	63.53%	-16.45	3-4
1942-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-28	1457.81	1565.51	33.81%	63.62%	-15.58	3-5
1942-11-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-19	1442.23	1474.92	44.04%	53.39%	-15.26	3-6
1942-11-29	@ New York Giants	L 7-21	1426.97	1501.66	38.19%	59.24%	-12.42	3-7
1942-12-06	Chicago Bears	L 7-21	1414.55	1710.99	14.70%	82.75%	-4.84	3-8
1942-09-13	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 0-7	1463.21	1469.34	47.83%	49.60%	-10.94	0-1
1942-09-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1452.27	1462.75	47.21%	50.22%	+13.72	1-1
1942-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-0	1465.99	1475.00	47.42%	50.01%	+16.16	2-1
1942-10-04	Chicago Bears	L 7-21	1482.15	1602.34	32.22%	65.21%	-10.51	2-2
1942-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-33	1471.64	1520.63	41.73%	55.69%	-15.78	2-3
1942-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-45	1455.86	1557.52	34.59%	62.84%	-12.42	2-4
1942-10-25	Chicago Cardinals	W 7-3	1443.44	1483.65	42.97%	54.46%	+9.39	3-4
1942-11-01	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 17-0	1452.83	1528.81	38.01%	59.42%	+21.09	4-4
1942-11-08	Green Bay Packers	L 12-30	1473.92	1597.67	31.77%	65.66%	-11.75	4-5
1942-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 27-7	1462.17	1380.15	60.24%	37.19%	+14.46	5-5
1942-11-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-47	1476.63	1698.40	20.94%	76.50%	-12.59	5-6
1942-09-20	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 0-13	1490.63	1480.28	50.20%	47.23%	-15.63	0-1
1942-09-27	Cleveland Rams	L 0-14	1475.00	1465.99	50.01%	47.42%	-16.16	0-2
1942-10-04	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-28	1458.84	1528.00	38.94%	58.49%	-15.50	0-3
1942-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-38	1443.34	1540.46	35.19%	62.24%	-17.06	0-4
1942-10-18	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-7	1426.28	1474.03	41.91%	55.52%	-9.61	0-5
1942-10-25	Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1416.67	1569.93	28.21%	69.23%	-11.30	0-6
1942-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-16	1405.37	1650.44	18.81%	78.64%	-6.60	0-7
1942-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-35	1398.77	1456.30	40.54%	56.88%	-18.62	0-8
1942-11-15	@ Cleveland Rams	L 7-27	1380.15	1462.17	37.19%	60.24%	-14.47	0-9
1942-11-22	Chicago Bears	L 0-42	1365.68	1691.14	12.73%	84.73%	-7.26	0-10
1942-11-29	Washington Redskins	L 3-15	1358.42	1602.95	18.85%	78.59%	-5.74	0-11
1942-09-27	Chicago Bears	L 28-44	1547.87	1587.41	43.07%	54.36%	-14.93	0-1
1942-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-13	1532.94	1495.91	54.01%	43.42%	+7.52	1-1
1942-10-11	Detroit Lions	W 38-7	1540.46	1443.34	62.24%	35.19%	+17.06	2-1
1942-10-18	Cleveland Rams	W 45-28	1557.52	1455.86	62.84%	34.59%	+12.41	3-1
1942-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1569.93	1416.67	69.23%	28.21%	+11.30	4-1
1942-11-01	Chicago Cardinals	W 55-24	1581.23	1474.26	63.53%	33.90%	+16.44	5-1
1942-11-08	@ Cleveland Rams	W 30-12	1597.67	1473.92	65.66%	31.77%	+11.76	6-1
1942-11-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-38	1609.43	1671.86	39.87%	57.56%	-19.28	6-2
1942-11-22	@ New York Giants	T 21-21	1590.15	1501.14	61.17%	36.26%	-0.52	6-2
1942-11-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-0	1589.63	1390.00	74.31%	23.13%	+5.36	7-2
1942-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-21	1594.99	1504.27	61.40%	36.03%	+5.43	8-2
1942-09-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1527.19	1525.22	49.00%	48.43%	+11.07	1-0
1942-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-13	1538.26	1414.21	65.70%	31.74%	-9.79	1-1
1942-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-17	1528.47	1426.72	62.85%	34.58%	+12.78	2-1
1942-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-26	1541.25	1627.21	36.67%	60.76%	-13.90	2-2
1942-10-25	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-17	1527.35	1515.02	50.49%	46.94%	-13.79	2-3
1942-11-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-17	1513.56	1441.97	58.82%	38.61%	-14.33	2-4
1942-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-0	1499.23	1386.03	64.33%	33.10%	+10.80	3-4
1942-11-15	Washington Redskins	L 7-14	1510.03	1581.09	38.68%	58.75%	-8.89	3-5
1942-11-22	Green Bay Packers	T 21-21	1501.14	1590.15	36.26%	61.17%	+0.52	3-5
1942-11-29	Chicago Cardinals	W 21-7	1501.66	1426.97	59.24%	38.19%	+12.42	4-5
1942-12-06	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 10-0	1514.08	1451.07	57.64%	39.79%	+10.93	5-5
1942-09-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-14	1449.86	1438.98	50.28%	47.15%	+12.89	1-0
1942-09-20	@ Cleveland Rams	L 14-24	1462.75	1452.27	50.22%	47.21%	-13.71	1-1
1942-09-27	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-35	1449.04	1512.17	39.77%	57.66%	-15.83	1-2
1942-10-04	Washington Redskins	L 10-14	1433.21	1514.14	37.34%	60.09%	-6.49	1-3
1942-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 17-35	1426.72	1528.47	34.58%	62.85%	-12.78	1-4
1942-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-14	1413.94	1438.83	45.15%	52.28%	-14.62	1-5
1942-10-25	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-45	1399.32	1641.11	19.10%	78.35%	-9.34	1-6
1942-11-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 27-30	1389.98	1561.55	26.12%	71.31%	-3.95	1-7
1942-11-08	New York Giants	L 0-14	1386.03	1499.23	33.10%	64.33%	-10.80	1-8
1942-11-15	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 14-7	1375.23	1492.90	32.54%	64.89%	+14.77	2-8
1942-11-29	Green Bay Packers	L 0-7	1390.00	1589.63	23.13%	74.31%	-5.36	2-9
1942-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1438.98	1449.86	47.15%	50.28%	-12.89	0-1
1942-09-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-28	1426.09	1513.34	36.49%	60.94%	-11.88	0-2
1942-10-04	New York Giants	W 13-10	1414.21	1538.26	31.74%	65.70%	+9.79	1-2
1942-10-11	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 7-0	1424.00	1543.50	32.31%	65.13%	+14.83	2-2
1942-10-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-0	1438.83	1413.94	52.28%	45.15%	+14.62	3-2
1942-10-25	Washington Redskins	L 0-14	1453.45	1550.07	35.25%	62.18%	-11.48	3-3
1942-11-01	@ New York Giants	W 17-9	1441.97	1513.56	38.61%	58.82%	+14.33	4-3
1942-11-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 35-7	1456.30	1398.77	56.88%	40.54%	+18.62	5-3
1942-11-22	Chicago Cardinals	W 19-3	1474.92	1442.23	53.39%	44.04%	+15.26	6-3
1942-11-29	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 13-0	1490.18	1465.16	52.30%	45.13%	+14.09	7-3
1942-12-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1504.27	1594.99	36.03%	61.40%	-5.43	7-4
1942-09-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-14	1513.34	1426.09	60.94%	36.49%	+11.88	1-0
1942-09-27	New York Giants	L 7-14	1525.22	1527.19	48.43%	49.00%	-11.08	1-1
1942-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-10	1514.14	1433.21	60.09%	37.34%	+6.49	2-1
1942-10-11	Cleveland Rams	W 33-14	1520.63	1471.64	55.69%	41.73%	+15.78	3-1
1942-10-18	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-10	1536.41	1528.67	49.83%	47.60%	+13.66	4-1
1942-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-0	1550.07	1453.45	62.18%	35.25%	+11.48	5-1
1942-11-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-27	1561.55	1389.98	71.31%	26.12%	+3.96	6-1
1942-11-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-0	1565.51	1457.81	63.62%	33.81%	+15.58	7-1
1942-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 14-7	1581.09	1510.03	58.75%	38.68%	+8.89	8-1
1942-11-22	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 23-3	1589.98	1478.12	64.16%	33.28%	+12.97	9-1
1942-11-29	@ Detroit Lions	W 15-3	1602.95	1358.42	78.59%	18.85%	+5.73	10-1

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1942-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1715.83	1608.68	64.95%	35.05%	-15.46	0-1
1942-12-13	Chicago Bears	W 14-6	1608.68	1715.83	35.05%	64.95%	+15.47	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1942-10-04	31.74%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1414.21	13	New York Giants	1538.26	10
2	1942-10-11	32.31%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1424.00	7	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1543.50	0
3	1942-11-15	32.54%	Philadelphia Eagles	1375.23	14	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1492.90	7
4	1942-12-13 *	35.05%	@ Washington Redskins	1608.68	14	Chicago Bears	1715.83	6
5	1942-11-01	38.01%	Cleveland Rams	1452.83	17	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1528.81	0
6	1942-11-01	38.61%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1441.97	17	@ New York Giants	1513.56	9
7	1942-10-25	42.97%	@ Cleveland Rams	1443.44	7	Chicago Cardinals	1483.65	3
8	1942-10-25	46.94%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1515.02	17	New York Giants	1527.35	7
9	1942-09-20	47.21%	@ Cleveland Rams	1452.27	24	Philadelphia Eagles	1462.75	14
10	1942-09-20	47.23%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1480.28	13	Detroit Lions	1490.63	0
11	1942-09-27	47.42%	Cleveland Rams	1465.99	14	@ Detroit Lions	1475.00	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1942-11-01	21.10	Cleveland Rams	17	1452.83	38.01%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1528.81	59.42%
2	1942-11-15	19.28	@ Chicago Bears	38	1671.86	57.56%	Green Bay Packers	7	1609.43	39.87%
3	1942-11-08	18.62	Pittsburgh Steelers	35	1456.30	56.88%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1398.77	40.54%
4	1942-10-11	17.06	@ Green Bay Packers	38	1540.46	62.24%	Detroit Lions	7	1443.34	35.19%
5	1942-11-01	16.45	@ Green Bay Packers	55	1581.23	63.53%	Chicago Cardinals	24	1474.26	33.90%
6	1942-09-27	16.16	Cleveland Rams	14	1465.99	47.42%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1475.00	50.01%
7	1942-09-27	15.83	Brooklyn Dodgers	35	1512.17	57.66%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	14	1449.04	39.77%
8	1942-10-11	15.78	@ Washington Redskins	33	1520.63	55.69%	Cleveland Rams	14	1471.64	41.73%
9	1942-09-20	15.63	@ Chicago Cardinals	13	1480.28	47.23%	Detroit Lions	0	1490.63	50.20%
10	1942-11-08	15.58	@ Washington Redskins	28	1565.51	63.62%	Chicago Cardinals	0	1457.81	33.81%
11	1942-10-04	15.50	Brooklyn Dodgers	28	1528.00	58.49%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1458.84	38.94%
12	1942-12-13 *	15.47	@ Washington Redskins	14	1608.68	35.05%	Chicago Bears	6	1715.83	64.95%
13	1942-11-22	15.26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	19	1474.92	53.39%	Chicago Cardinals	3	1442.23	44.04%
14	1942-09-27	14.93	Chicago Bears	44	1587.41	54.36%	@ Green Bay Packers	28	1547.87	43.07%
15	1942-10-11	14.83	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1424.00	32.31%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1543.50	65.13%
16	1942-11-08	14.81	Chicago Bears	35	1657.05	68.77%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1507.71	28.67%
17	1942-11-15	14.78	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1375.23	32.54%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	7	1492.90	64.89%
18	1942-10-18	14.62	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1438.83	52.28%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1413.94	45.15%
19	1942-11-15	14.47	@ Cleveland Rams	27	1462.17	60.24%	Detroit Lions	7	1380.15	37.19%
20	1942-10-11	14.36	@ Chicago Bears	41	1612.85	65.75%	Chicago Cardinals	14	1488.39	31.69%
21	1942-11-01	14.33	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	1441.97	38.61%	@ New York Giants	9	1513.56	58.82%
22	1942-11-29	14.09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1490.18	52.30%	Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1465.16	45.13%
23	1942-10-18	13.90	@ Chicago Bears	26	1627.21	60.76%	New York Giants	7	1541.25	36.67%
24	1942-10-25	13.79	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	17	1515.02	46.94%	New York Giants	7	1527.35	50.49%
25	1942-09-20	13.72	@ Cleveland Rams	24	1452.27	47.21%	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1462.75	50.22%