1941 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

5th Title

Last Title: 1940

Runner-Up

New York Giants

6th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1939

Biggest Overachiever

Green Bay Packers

3.40 wins above expected

10 wins · 6.60 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cleveland Rams

2.77 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.77 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	8	3	0	.727	—	238	114	+124	6.87	+1.13
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	7	4	0	.636	1	158	127	+31	5.85	+1.15
3	Washington Redskins	6	5	0	.545	2	176	174	+2	6.10	-0.10
4	Philadelphia Eagles	2	8	1	.227	5.5	119	218	-99	4.42	-1.92
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	9	1	.136	6.5	103	276	-173	3.88	-2.38

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	1	0	.909	—	258	120	+138	6.60	+3.40
2	Chicago Bears Playoffs	10	1	0	.909	—	396	147	+249	7.39	+2.61
3	Detroit Lions	4	6	1	.409	5.5	121	195	-74	4.96	-0.46
4	Chicago Cardinals	3	7	1	.318	6.5	127	197	-70	4.16	-0.66
5	Cleveland Rams	2	9	0	.182	8	116	244	-128	4.77	-2.77

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

Chicago Bears 33

Green Bay Packers 14

Dec 14

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 37

New York Giants 9

Dec 21

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1653	10	7.39	+2.61	99.34%	1	5	6	7	8	10	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1608	10	6.60	+3.40	99.78%	1	4	5	6	7	9	11
New York Giants	East	1556	8	6.87	+1.13	88.32%	1	4	6	7	8	9	11
Washington Redskins	East	1525	6	6.10	-0.10	65.33%	1	3	5	6	7	8	11
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1522	7	5.85	+1.15	87.13%	0	3	5	6	7	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1483	4.5	4.96	-0.46	45.35%	0	2	4	5	6	7	11
Chicago Cardinals	West	1441	3.5	4.16	-0.66	40.54%	0	1	3	4	5	6	10
Cleveland Rams	West	1427	2	4.77	-2.77	9.45%	0	2	3	4	6	7	10
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1402	2.5	4.42	-1.92	14.32%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1383	1.5	3.88	-2.38	7.33%	0	1	3	4	5	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Rams	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.82%	1.82%	3.64%	3.64%	—	—	0.91%	11.82%
7–13	1.82%	7.27%	9.09%	4.55%	3.64%	1.82%	1.82%	30.00%
14–20	3.64%	9.09%	9.09%	5.45%	—	—	1.82%	29.09%
21–27	3.64%	4.55%	5.45%	—	0.91%	0.91%	0.91%	16.36%
28–34	—	3.64%	—	0.91%	—	—	—	4.55%
35–41	—	1.82%	—	0.91%	—	—	—	2.73%
42+	0.91%	1.82%	1.82%	0.91%	—	—	—	5.45%
Total	11.82%	30.00%	29.09%	16.36%	4.55%	2.73%	5.45%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.47	16.47	+0.00
SD	11.68	11.68	18.32
CV	0.71	0.71	—
Max	54	54	+49
Min	0	0	-49

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
14–20	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	54.55%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.36	11.55	+2.82
SD	9.76	7.80	14.04
CV	0.68	0.68	—
Max	35	30	+28
Min	0	3	-23

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	27.27%	27.27%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	36.00	13.36	+22.64
SD	12.47	7.42	15.94
CV	0.35	0.56	—
Max	53	24	+49
Min	14	0	-2

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	9.09%	45.45%
14–20	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.55	17.91	-6.36
SD	6.28	14.78	15.74
CV	0.54	0.83	—
Max	24	53	+14
Min	3	0	-46

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	9.09%	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
14–20	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	9.09%	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	9.09%	45.45%	9.09%	9.09%	—	18.18%	100%

Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.55	22.18	-11.64
SD	6.59	14.74	12.13
CV	0.63	0.66	—
Max	21	49	+4
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
7–13	—	—	18.18%	18.18%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	9.09%	36.36%	27.27%	—	—	9.09%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.00	17.73	-6.73
SD	7.40	13.28	19.35
CV	0.67	0.75	—
Max	21	49	+18
Min	0	0	-49

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	54.55%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.45	10.91	+12.55
SD	11.17	6.66	15.10
CV	0.48	0.61	—
Max	54	25	+47
Min	14	0	-8

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	9.09%	27.27%	—	—	—	—	—	36.36%
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	54.55%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	10.36	+11.27
SD	12.62	6.31	14.80
CV	0.58	0.61	—
Max	49	21	+35
Min	7	0	-14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	36.36%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.18%	36.36%	36.36%	—	—	9.09%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.82	19.82	-9.00
SD	6.91	11.36	12.22
CV	0.64	0.57	—
Max	21	49	+7
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	18.18%	—	—	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	63.64%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.36	25.09	-15.73
SD	4.80	14.55	16.29
CV	0.51	0.58	—
Max	20	54	+7
Min	3	7	-47

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	9.09%	—	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	36.36%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	18.18%	45.45%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.00	15.82	+0.18
SD	6.90	9.37	9.21
CV	0.43	0.59	—
Max	24	35	+20
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 11

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	10	6.60	+3.40
2	Chicago Bears	10	7.39	+2.61
3	Brooklyn Dodgers	7	5.85	+1.15
4	New York Giants	8	6.87	+1.13
5	Washington Redskins	6	6.10	-0.10

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Rams	2	4.77	-2.77
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.5	3.88	-2.38
3	Philadelphia Eagles	2.5	4.42	-1.92
4	Chicago Cardinals	3.5	4.16	-0.66
5	Detroit Lions	4.5	4.96	-0.46

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	8	Oct 5 – Nov 30	1 in 94
2	New York Giants	5	Sep 13 – Oct 19	1 in 17
3	Washington Redskins	5	Oct 5 – Nov 2	1 in 13
4	Chicago Bears	5	Sep 28 – Oct 26	1 in 11
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	Oct 26 – Nov 9	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Rams	9	Sep 21 – Nov 23	1 in 175
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	Sep 7 – Nov 2	1 in 31
3	Washington Redskins	4	Nov 9 – Nov 30	1 in 11
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	Oct 5 – Oct 19	1 in 9
5	New York Giants	2	Oct 26 – Nov 2	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	46.71%	26.77%	16.09%	7.63%	2.80%
Washington Redskins	24.00%	29.29%	24.34%	14.92%	7.45%
Brooklyn Dodgers	21.22%	25.72%	26.24%	17.30%	9.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.45%	11.27%	19.13%	31.89%	32.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.62%	6.95%	14.20%	28.26%	47.97%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	54.28%	27.43%	11.53%	5.01%	1.75%
Green Bay Packers	30.31%	34.74%	19.40%	10.64%	4.91%
Detroit Lions	6.96%	15.98%	26.84%	26.65%	23.57%
Cleveland Rams	5.81%	13.31%	24.24%	29.61%	27.03%
Chicago Cardinals	2.64%	8.54%	17.99%	28.09%	42.74%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	33.10%	23.07%	14.76%	11.11%	7.09%	4.58%	3.08%	1.73%	1.04%	0.44%
New York Giants	21.61%	22.07%	15.64%	12.68%	9.52%	7.25%	4.91%	3.35%	1.88%	1.09%
Green Bay Packers	17.48%	15.62%	17.59%	14.70%	10.97%	8.08%	6.26%	4.69%	2.94%	1.67%
Washington Redskins	10.35%	12.74%	14.59%	14.60%	12.84%	12.16%	8.32%	6.87%	4.74%	2.79%
Brooklyn Dodgers	8.44%	11.60%	12.55%	13.15%	13.85%	12.07%	9.63%	8.73%	5.61%	4.37%
Detroit Lions	3.10%	4.72%	7.67%	9.17%	12.50%	13.04%	13.55%	13.14%	12.63%	10.48%
Cleveland Rams	2.58%	3.99%	5.97%	8.29%	10.35%	12.85%	14.41%	15.15%	14.62%	11.79%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.57%	2.99%	4.81%	6.87%	8.77%	10.87%	14.24%	15.80%	15.92%	18.16%
Chicago Cardinals	1.04%	1.76%	3.67%	5.24%	8.23%	10.14%	13.51%	15.01%	19.73%	21.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.73%	1.44%	2.75%	4.19%	5.88%	8.96%	12.09%	15.53%	20.89%	27.54%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	46.71%	53.29%
Washington Redskins	24.00%	76.00%
Brooklyn Dodgers	21.22%	78.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.45%	94.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.62%	97.38%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	54.28%	45.72%
Green Bay Packers	30.31%	69.69%
Detroit Lions	6.96%	93.04%
Cleveland Rams	5.81%	94.19%
Chicago Cardinals	2.64%	97.36%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	54.28%	38.88%
Green Bay Packers	30.31%	20.20%
New York Giants	46.71%	17.24%
Washington Redskins	24.00%	8.11%
Brooklyn Dodgers	21.22%	6.62%
Detroit Lions	6.96%	3.72%
Cleveland Rams	5.81%	2.60%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.45%	1.15%
Chicago Cardinals	2.64%	1.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.62%	0.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Brooklyn Dodgers	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Rams	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers		3.41%	0.38%	0.64%	0.49%	1.70%
Chicago Bears	9.19%						17.43%	2.18%	1.20%	8.88%
Chicago Cardinals	0.16%						0.41%	0.05%	0.05%	0.33%
Cleveland Rams	0.57%						0.99%	0.24%	0.10%	0.70%
Detroit Lions	0.73%						1.44%	0.20%	0.23%	1.12%
Green Bay Packers	3.95%						9.20%	1.63%	0.56%	4.86%
New York Giants		7.86%	0.65%	1.56%	1.47%	5.70%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.36%	0.06%	0.13%	0.16%	0.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.23%	0.07%	0.06%	0.06%	0.06%
Washington Redskins		3.54%	0.48%	0.82%	1.06%	2.21%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	69.39%
New York Giants	30.61%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New York Giants
Chicago Bears		69.39%
New York Giants	30.61%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 69.39% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.39%

New York Giants 30.61% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.61%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1941-09-21	Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1503.41	1490.74	55.91%	39.73%	+6.51	1-0
1941-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-13	1509.92	1438.45	51.68%	43.95%	+8.99	2-0
1941-10-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-3	1518.91	1522.28	41.02%	54.62%	-4.39	2-1
1941-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-30	1514.52	1554.86	35.98%	59.66%	-10.73	2-2
1941-10-19	Chicago Cardinals	L 6-20	1503.79	1438.58	62.90%	32.75%	-14.36	2-3
1941-10-26	New York Giants	W 16-13	1489.43	1561.38	43.88%	51.75%	+5.50	3-3
1941-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 15-6	1494.93	1425.59	63.42%	32.23%	+6.03	4-3
1941-11-09	Washington Redskins	W 13-7	1500.96	1547.13	47.57%	48.06%	+7.23	5-3
1941-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1508.19	1394.93	57.51%	38.13%	-9.30	5-4
1941-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-7	1498.89	1391.85	67.99%	27.68%	+9.18	6-4
1941-12-07	@ New York Giants	W 21-7	1508.07	1570.37	33.12%	62.53%	+14.27	7-4
1941-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 25-17	1571.65	1562.25	42.81%	52.82%	+9.15	1-0
1941-10-05	@ Cleveland Rams	W 48-21	1580.80	1494.06	53.84%	41.79%	+13.43	2-0
1941-10-12	Chicago Cardinals	W 53-7	1594.23	1448.58	72.23%	23.46%	+10.00	3-0
1941-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 49-0	1604.23	1492.29	68.55%	27.12%	+11.89	4-0
1941-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-7	1616.12	1407.20	78.18%	17.57%	+5.77	5-0
1941-11-02	Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1621.89	1580.53	59.80%	35.84%	-5.17	5-1
1941-11-09	Cleveland Rams	W 31-13	1616.72	1451.96	74.16%	21.55%	+5.76	6-1
1941-11-16	Washington Redskins	W 35-21	1622.48	1539.90	65.07%	30.59%	+7.15	7-1
1941-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-7	1629.63	1480.89	62.21%	33.44%	+8.59	8-1
1941-11-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 49-14	1638.22	1415.07	71.03%	24.66%	+9.16	9-1
1941-12-07	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-24	1647.38	1446.36	68.57%	27.10%	+5.37	10-1
1941-09-16	Cleveland Rams	L 6-10	1456.33	1497.01	48.36%	47.27%	-5.94	0-1
1941-09-27	Detroit Lions	T 14-14	1450.39	1484.23	49.34%	46.29%	-0.04	0-1
1941-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-14	1450.35	1553.09	28.18%	67.49%	-1.77	0-2
1941-10-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-53	1448.58	1594.23	23.46%	72.23%	-10.00	0-3
1941-10-19	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 20-6	1438.58	1503.79	32.75%	62.90%	+14.36	1-3
1941-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-21	1452.94	1418.03	46.44%	49.19%	-7.56	1-4
1941-11-02	@ New York Giants	W 10-7	1445.38	1555.89	27.28%	68.39%	+7.22	2-4
1941-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-17	1452.60	1585.69	24.78%	70.90%	-4.40	2-5
1941-11-23	@ Cleveland Rams	W 7-0	1448.20	1435.99	43.21%	52.43%	+8.50	3-5
1941-11-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-21	1456.70	1472.30	39.32%	56.31%	-10.34	3-6
1941-12-07	Chicago Bears	L 24-34	1446.36	1647.38	27.10%	68.57%	-5.37	3-7
1941-09-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1493.29	1441.16	61.22%	34.43%	+3.72	1-0
1941-09-16	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 10-6	1497.01	1456.33	47.27%	48.36%	+5.94	2-0
1941-09-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-24	1502.95	1553.35	34.66%	60.99%	-8.89	2-1
1941-10-05	Chicago Bears	L 21-48	1494.06	1580.80	41.79%	53.84%	-13.43	2-2
1941-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1480.63	1484.27	40.98%	54.66%	-8.02	2-3
1941-10-19	Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1472.61	1565.58	40.92%	54.71%	-4.38	2-4
1941-10-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-17	1468.23	1536.31	32.39%	63.27%	-4.04	2-5
1941-11-02	Detroit Lions	L 0-14	1464.19	1469.84	53.35%	42.28%	-12.23	2-6
1941-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-31	1451.96	1616.72	21.55%	74.16%	-5.75	2-7
1941-11-16	@ New York Giants	L 14-49	1446.21	1554.04	27.59%	68.08%	-10.22	2-8
1941-11-23	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-7	1435.99	1448.20	52.43%	43.21%	-8.50	2-9
1941-09-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-23	1501.43	1542.66	35.86%	59.78%	-10.69	0-1
1941-09-21	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-14	1490.74	1503.41	39.73%	55.91%	-6.51	0-2
1941-09-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 14-14	1484.23	1450.39	46.29%	49.34%	+0.04	0-2
1941-10-12	Cleveland Rams	W 17-7	1484.27	1480.63	54.66%	40.98%	+8.02	1-2
1941-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-49	1492.29	1604.23	27.12%	68.55%	-11.89	1-3
1941-10-26	Green Bay Packers	L 7-24	1480.40	1569.97	41.40%	54.24%	-10.56	1-4
1941-11-02	@ Cleveland Rams	W 14-0	1469.84	1464.19	42.28%	53.35%	+12.22	2-4
1941-11-09	@ New York Giants	L 13-20	1482.06	1548.66	32.57%	63.08%	-5.37	2-5
1941-11-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1476.69	1419.27	61.90%	33.75%	+4.20	3-5
1941-11-23	Chicago Bears	L 7-24	1480.89	1629.63	33.44%	62.21%	-8.59	3-6
1941-11-30	Chicago Cardinals	W 21-3	1472.30	1456.70	56.31%	39.32%	+10.34	4-6
1941-09-14	Detroit Lions	W 23-0	1542.66	1501.43	59.78%	35.86%	+10.69	1-0
1941-09-21	Cleveland Rams	W 24-7	1553.35	1502.95	60.99%	34.66%	+8.90	2-0
1941-09-28	Chicago Bears	L 17-25	1562.25	1571.65	52.82%	42.81%	-9.16	2-1
1941-10-05	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-13	1553.09	1450.35	67.49%	28.18%	+1.77	3-1
1941-10-12	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 30-7	1554.86	1514.52	59.66%	35.98%	+10.72	4-1
1941-10-19	@ Cleveland Rams	W 17-14	1565.58	1472.61	54.71%	40.92%	+4.39	5-1
1941-10-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-7	1569.97	1480.40	54.24%	41.40%	+10.56	6-1
1941-11-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-14	1580.53	1621.89	35.84%	59.80%	+5.16	7-1
1941-11-16	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-9	1585.69	1452.60	70.90%	24.78%	+4.40	8-1
1941-11-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 54-7	1590.09	1404.23	66.81%	28.86%	+12.38	9-1
1941-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 22-17	1602.47	1526.64	52.30%	43.33%	+5.98	10-1
1941-09-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-0	1512.79	1446.12	51.00%	44.63%	+13.48	1-0
1941-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1526.27	1531.16	40.81%	54.83%	+8.88	2-0
1941-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-10	1535.15	1431.64	56.17%	39.46%	+12.70	3-0
1941-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-0	1547.85	1429.45	69.29%	26.39%	+6.62	4-0
1941-10-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-7	1554.47	1414.11	71.68%	24.01%	+6.91	5-0
1941-10-26	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 13-16	1561.38	1489.43	51.75%	43.88%	-5.49	5-1
1941-11-02	Chicago Cardinals	L 7-10	1555.89	1445.38	68.39%	27.28%	-7.23	5-2
1941-11-09	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1548.66	1482.06	63.08%	32.57%	+5.38	6-2
1941-11-16	Cleveland Rams	W 49-14	1554.04	1446.21	68.08%	27.59%	+10.22	7-2
1941-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 20-13	1564.26	1532.75	58.48%	37.16%	+6.11	8-2
1941-12-07	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-21	1570.37	1508.07	62.53%	33.12%	-14.28	8-3
1941-09-13	New York Giants	L 0-24	1446.12	1512.79	44.63%	51.00%	-13.48	0-1
1941-09-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1432.64	1437.44	40.82%	54.82%	+5.81	1-1
1941-09-27	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 13-24	1438.45	1509.92	43.95%	51.68%	-9.00	1-2
1941-10-12	@ New York Giants	L 0-16	1429.45	1547.85	26.39%	69.29%	-6.62	1-3
1941-10-19	Washington Redskins	L 17-21	1422.83	1531.50	38.76%	56.88%	-4.80	1-4
1941-10-26	Chicago Cardinals	W 21-14	1418.03	1452.94	49.19%	46.44%	+7.56	2-4
1941-11-02	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 6-15	1425.59	1494.93	32.23%	63.42%	-6.03	2-5
1941-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 7-7	1419.56	1394.64	57.59%	38.05%	-0.29	2-5
1941-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-21	1419.27	1476.69	33.75%	61.90%	-4.20	2-6
1941-11-30	Chicago Bears	L 14-49	1415.07	1638.22	24.66%	71.03%	-9.16	2-7
1941-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1405.91	1520.66	26.80%	68.87%	-4.12	2-8
1941-09-07	@ Cleveland Rams	L 14-17	1441.16	1493.29	34.43%	61.22%	-3.72	0-1
1941-09-21	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1437.44	1432.64	54.82%	40.82%	-5.80	0-2
1941-10-05	New York Giants	L 10-37	1431.64	1535.15	39.46%	56.17%	-12.71	0-3
1941-10-12	Washington Redskins	L 20-24	1418.93	1526.68	38.88%	56.76%	-4.82	0-4
1941-10-19	@ New York Giants	L 7-28	1414.11	1554.47	24.01%	71.68%	-6.91	0-5
1941-10-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-34	1407.20	1616.12	17.57%	78.18%	-5.77	0-6
1941-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-23	1401.43	1540.34	24.17%	71.53%	-6.79	0-7
1941-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 7-7	1394.64	1419.56	38.05%	57.59%	+0.29	0-7
1941-11-16	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 14-7	1394.93	1508.19	38.13%	57.51%	+9.30	1-7
1941-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 7-54	1404.23	1590.09	28.86%	66.81%	-12.38	1-8
1941-11-30	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-35	1391.85	1498.89	27.68%	67.99%	-9.17	1-9
1941-09-28	New York Giants	L 10-17	1531.16	1526.27	54.83%	40.81%	-8.88	0-1
1941-10-05	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 3-0	1522.28	1518.91	54.62%	41.02%	+4.40	1-1
1941-10-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1526.68	1418.93	56.76%	38.88%	+4.82	2-1
1941-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1531.50	1422.83	56.88%	38.76%	+4.81	3-1
1941-10-26	Cleveland Rams	W 17-13	1536.31	1468.23	63.27%	32.39%	+4.03	4-1
1941-11-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-3	1540.34	1401.43	71.53%	24.17%	+6.79	5-1
1941-11-09	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-13	1547.13	1500.96	48.06%	47.57%	-7.23	5-2
1941-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-35	1539.90	1622.48	30.59%	65.07%	-7.15	5-3
1941-11-23	@ New York Giants	L 13-20	1532.75	1564.26	37.16%	58.48%	-6.11	5-4
1941-11-30	Green Bay Packers	L 17-22	1526.64	1602.47	43.33%	52.30%	-5.98	5-5
1941-12-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1520.66	1405.91	68.87%	26.80%	+4.12	6-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1941-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 33-14	1652.75	1608.45	62.50%	37.50%	+9.61	1-0
1941-12-21	New York Giants	W 37-9	1662.36	1556.09	70.43%	29.57%	+9.20	2-0
1941-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-33	1608.45	1652.75	37.50%	62.50%	-9.61	0-1
1941-12-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-37	1556.09	1662.36	29.57%	70.43%	-9.20	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1941-11-02	27.28%	Chicago Cardinals	1445.38	10	@ New York Giants	1555.89	7
2	1941-10-19	32.75%	Chicago Cardinals	1438.58	20	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1503.79	6
3	1941-12-07	33.12%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1508.07	21	@ New York Giants	1570.37	7
4	1941-11-02	35.84%	Green Bay Packers	1580.53	16	@ Chicago Bears	1621.89	14
5	1941-11-16	38.13%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1394.93	14	Brooklyn Dodgers	1508.19	7
6	1941-09-28	40.81%	New York Giants	1526.27	17	@ Washington Redskins	1531.16	10
7	1941-09-21	40.82%	Philadelphia Eagles	1432.64	10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1437.44	7
8	1941-11-02	42.28%	Detroit Lions	1469.84	14	@ Cleveland Rams	1464.19	0
9	1941-09-28	42.81%	Chicago Bears	1571.65	25	@ Green Bay Packers	1562.25	17
10	1941-11-23	43.21%	Chicago Cardinals	1448.20	7	@ Cleveland Rams	1435.99	0
11	1941-10-26	43.88%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1489.43	16	New York Giants	1561.38	13
12	1941-09-16	47.27%	Cleveland Rams	1497.01	10	@ Chicago Cardinals	1456.33	6
13	1941-11-09	47.57%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1500.96	13	Washington Redskins	1547.13	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1941-10-19	14.36	Chicago Cardinals	20	1438.58	32.75%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	6	1503.79	62.90%
2	1941-12-07	14.28	Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1508.07	33.12%	@ New York Giants	7	1570.37	62.53%
3	1941-09-13	13.48	New York Giants	24	1512.79	51.00%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1446.12	44.63%
4	1941-10-05	13.43	Chicago Bears	48	1580.80	53.84%	@ Cleveland Rams	21	1494.06	41.79%
5	1941-10-05	12.71	New York Giants	37	1535.15	56.17%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1431.64	39.46%
6	1941-11-23	12.38	Green Bay Packers	54	1590.09	66.81%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1404.23	28.86%
7	1941-11-02	12.23	Detroit Lions	14	1469.84	42.28%	@ Cleveland Rams	0	1464.19	53.35%
8	1941-10-19	11.89	@ Chicago Bears	49	1604.23	68.55%	Detroit Lions	0	1492.29	27.12%
9	1941-10-12	10.73	@ Green Bay Packers	30	1554.86	59.66%	Brooklyn Dodgers	7	1514.52	35.98%
10	1941-09-14	10.69	@ Green Bay Packers	23	1542.66	59.78%	Detroit Lions	0	1501.43	35.86%
11	1941-10-26	10.56	Green Bay Packers	24	1569.97	54.24%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1480.40	41.40%
12	1941-11-30	10.34	@ Detroit Lions	21	1472.30	56.31%	Chicago Cardinals	3	1456.70	39.32%
13	1941-11-16	10.22	@ New York Giants	49	1554.04	68.08%	Cleveland Rams	14	1446.21	27.59%
14	1941-10-12	10.00	@ Chicago Bears	53	1594.23	72.23%	Chicago Cardinals	7	1448.58	23.46%
15	1941-12-14 *	9.61	@ Chicago Bears	33	1652.75	62.50%	Green Bay Packers	14	1608.45	37.50%
16	1941-11-16	9.30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1394.93	38.13%	Brooklyn Dodgers	7	1508.19	57.51%
17	1941-12-21 *	9.20	@ Chicago Bears	37	1662.36	70.43%	New York Giants	9	1556.09	29.57%
18	1941-11-30	9.18	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	35	1498.89	67.99%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1391.85	27.68%
19	1941-09-28	9.16	Chicago Bears	25	1571.65	42.81%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1562.25	52.82%
20	1941-11-30	9.16	Chicago Bears	49	1638.22	71.03%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	14	1415.07	24.66%
21	1941-09-27	9.00	Brooklyn Dodgers	24	1509.92	51.68%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1438.45	43.95%
22	1941-09-21	8.90	@ Green Bay Packers	24	1553.35	60.99%	Cleveland Rams	7	1502.95	34.66%
23	1941-09-28	8.88	New York Giants	17	1526.27	40.81%	@ Washington Redskins	10	1531.16	54.83%
24	1941-11-23	8.59	Chicago Bears	24	1629.63	62.21%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1480.89	33.44%
25	1941-11-23	8.50	Chicago Cardinals	7	1448.20	43.21%	@ Cleveland Rams	0	1435.99	52.43%