1940 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

4th Title

Last Title: 1933

Runner-Up

Washington Redskins

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1937

Biggest Overachiever

Brooklyn Dodgers

2.57 wins above expected

8 wins · 5.43 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

3.44 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.44 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	9	2	0	.818	—	245	142	+103	6.76	+2.24
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	8	3	0	.727	1	186	120	+66	5.43	+2.57
3	New York Giants	6	4	1	.591	2.5	131	133	-2	6.38	+0.12
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	7	2	.273	6	60	178	-118	4.69	-1.69
5	Philadelphia Eagles	1	10	0	.091	8	111	211	-100	4.44	-3.44

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	8	3	0	.727	—	238	152	+86	6.15	+1.85
2	Green Bay Packers	6	4	1	.591	1.5	238	155	+83	6.22	+0.28
3	Detroit Lions	5	5	1	.500	2.5	138	153	-15	5.76	-0.26
4	Cleveland Rams	4	6	1	.409	3.5	171	191	-20	5.06	-0.56
5	Chicago Cardinals	2	7	2	.273	5	139	222	-83	4.11	-1.11

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 73

Washington Redskins 0

Dec 8

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1587	8	6.15	+1.85	96.32%	0	3	5	6	7	8	11
Washington Redskins	East	1580	9	6.76	+2.24	98.12%	1	4	5	6	7	9	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1562	6.5	6.22	+0.28	65.87%	0	3	5	6	7	8	11
New York Giants	East	1522	6.5	6.38	+0.12	61.34%	0	3	5	6	7	9	11
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1505	8	5.43	+2.57	98.82%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1502	5.5	5.76	-0.26	53.20%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Cleveland Rams	West	1489	4.5	5.06	-0.56	45.81%	0	2	4	5	6	7	10
Chicago Cardinals	West	1430	3	4.11	-1.11	44.87%	0	1	3	4	5	6	10
Pittsburgh Pirates	East	1418	3	4.69	-1.69	29.57%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1405	1	4.44	-3.44	3.88%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—
New York Giants	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	—	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	3.64%	8.18%	0.91%	3.64%	0.91%	—	—	17.27%
7–13	8.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	0.91%	2.73%	0.91%	30.91%
14–20	0.91%	4.55%	7.27%	4.55%	3.64%	—	0.91%	21.82%
21–27	3.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	1.82%	0.91%	0.91%	16.36%
28–34	0.91%	0.91%	3.64%	1.82%	—	—	—	7.27%
35–41	—	2.73%	—	0.91%	—	—	—	3.64%
42+	—	0.91%	0.91%	0.91%	—	—	—	2.73%
Total	17.27%	30.91%	21.82%	16.36%	7.27%	3.64%	2.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	15.06	+0.00
SD	10.99	10.99	15.09
CV	0.73	0.73	—
Max	50	50	+43
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
21–27	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	27.27%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.91	10.91	+6.00
SD	7.83	6.92	9.57
CV	0.46	0.63	—
Max	30	24	+21
Min	7	0	-9

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
42+	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	18.18%	36.36%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	13.82	+7.82
SD	15.06	8.17	12.42
CV	0.70	0.59	—
Max	47	25	+31
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	27.27%
21–27	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	36.36%	—	9.09%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.64	20.18	-7.55
SD	7.42	13.70	13.63
CV	0.59	0.68	—
Max	23	43	+14
Min	0	0	-29

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	27.27%
21–27	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	36.36%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	—	9.09%	100%

Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.55	17.36	-1.82
SD	7.97	14.12	14.49
CV	0.51	0.81	—
Max	26	47	+24
Min	0	0	-22

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
14–20	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	18.18%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.55	13.91	-1.36
SD	13.06	14.44	19.76
CV	1.04	1.04	—
Max	43	50	+29
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	36.36%	27.27%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	14.09	+7.55
SD	13.73	10.86	20.43
CV	0.63	0.77	—
Max	50	41	+43
Min	3	3	-31

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	18.18%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	45.45%	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.91	12.09	-0.18
SD	6.99	10.09	10.89
CV	0.59	0.83	—
Max	21	37	+14
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	9.09%	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	36.36%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.09	19.18	-9.09
SD	6.44	9.84	7.41
CV	0.64	0.51	—
Max	20	34	+7
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	27.27%	—	18.18%	—	—	—	45.45%
7–13	9.09%	27.27%	—	—	—	18.18%	—	54.55%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	54.55%	—	18.18%	—	18.18%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	5.45	16.18	-10.73
SD	4.34	12.67	12.30
CV	0.80	0.78	—
Max	10	40	+4
Min	0	3	-30

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	36.36%	18.18%	—	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.27	12.91	+9.36
SD	11.54	6.11	12.44
CV	0.52	0.47	—
Max	40	21	+30
Min	7	3	-14

Games Played: 11

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Brooklyn Dodgers	8	5.43	+2.57
2	Washington Redskins	9	6.76	+2.24
3	Chicago Bears	8	6.15	+1.85
4	Green Bay Packers	6.5	6.22	+0.28
5	New York Giants	6.5	6.38	+0.12

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	1	4.44	-3.44
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	4.69	-1.69
3	Chicago Cardinals	3	4.11	-1.11
4	Cleveland Rams	4.5	5.06	-0.56
5	Detroit Lions	5.5	5.76	-0.26

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Redskins	7	Sep 15 – Nov 3	1 in 50
2	Chicago Bears	5	Oct 6 – Nov 3	1 in 23
3	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	Nov 10 – Dec 1	1 in 18
4	Cleveland Rams	2	Nov 3 – Nov 10	1 in 7
5	New York Giants	3	Sep 28 – Oct 20	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Philadelphia Eagles	9	Sep 15 – Nov 17	1 in 236
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	Sep 29 – Nov 3	1 in 27
3	Cleveland Rams	3	Sep 29 – Oct 13	1 in 6
4	Detroit Lions	2	Oct 27 – Nov 3	1 in 5
5	Chicago Cardinals	4	Sep 29 – Oct 20	1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	41.88%	28.47%	16.21%	9.42%	4.02%
New York Giants	33.10%	28.39%	19.36%	12.60%	6.55%
Brooklyn Dodgers	14.06%	21.13%	25.19%	22.99%	16.63%
Pittsburgh Pirates	6.03%	12.17%	21.14%	27.76%	32.90%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.93%	9.84%	18.10%	27.23%	39.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Green Bay Packers	32.93%	26.26%	20.04%	13.72%	7.05%
Chicago Bears	28.73%	26.25%	21.55%	15.23%	8.24%
Detroit Lions	22.91%	23.53%	22.51%	19.18%	11.87%
Cleveland Rams	11.68%	16.22%	21.90%	27.89%	22.31%
Chicago Cardinals	3.75%	7.74%	14.00%	23.98%	50.53%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Washington Redskins	25.34%	17.95%	15.37%	11.95%	9.51%	6.94%	5.14%	4.00%	2.52%	1.28%
New York Giants	19.55%	15.12%	15.05%	11.80%	10.83%	8.73%	7.04%	5.71%	3.90%	2.27%
Green Bay Packers	14.53%	16.71%	14.03%	12.75%	11.21%	9.55%	7.95%	6.00%	4.59%	2.68%
Chicago Bears	13.87%	14.66%	12.95%	13.42%	11.23%	10.36%	8.44%	6.83%	5.19%	3.05%
Detroit Lions	10.37%	11.21%	11.88%	12.25%	11.27%	11.28%	9.76%	9.04%	7.51%	5.43%
Brooklyn Dodgers	6.69%	8.17%	10.10%	11.01%	12.21%	11.85%	11.96%	10.99%	9.30%	7.72%
Cleveland Rams	4.37%	6.47%	7.70%	8.96%	10.40%	11.83%	12.83%	14.11%	11.86%	11.47%
Pittsburgh Pirates	2.33%	3.99%	5.47%	7.15%	9.15%	11.62%	13.53%	14.14%	16.61%	16.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.83%	3.44%	4.21%	6.06%	8.17%	9.48%	12.82%	14.82%	17.78%	21.39%
Chicago Cardinals	1.12%	2.28%	3.24%	4.65%	6.02%	8.36%	10.53%	14.36%	20.74%	28.70%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	41.88%	58.12%
New York Giants	33.10%	66.90%
Brooklyn Dodgers	14.06%	85.94%
Pittsburgh Pirates	6.03%	93.97%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.93%	95.07%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	32.93%	67.07%
Chicago Bears	28.73%	71.27%
Detroit Lions	22.91%	77.09%
Cleveland Rams	11.68%	88.32%
Chicago Cardinals	3.75%	96.25%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	41.88%	29.71%
New York Giants	33.10%	21.18%
Green Bay Packers	32.93%	12.40%
Chicago Bears	28.73%	11.98%
Brooklyn Dodgers	14.06%	8.57%
Detroit Lions	22.91%	6.82%
Cleveland Rams	11.68%	3.49%
Pittsburgh Pirates	6.03%	2.81%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.93%	2.21%
Chicago Cardinals	3.75%	0.83%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Brooklyn Dodgers	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Rams	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Pirates	Washington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers		2.40%	0.34%	0.75%	2.25%	2.83%
Chicago Bears	1.58%						3.99%	1.25%	1.26%	3.90%
Chicago Cardinals	0.09%						0.41%	0.09%	0.06%	0.18%
Cleveland Rams	0.50%						1.17%	0.17%	0.39%	1.26%
Detroit Lions	1.34%						2.51%	0.32%	0.62%	2.03%
Green Bay Packers	1.98%						3.84%	0.89%	0.89%	4.80%
New York Giants		5.41%	1.07%	2.51%	6.14%	6.05%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.62%	0.08%	0.19%	0.53%	0.79%
Pittsburgh Pirates		0.82%	0.13%	0.57%	0.61%	0.68%
Washington Redskins		7.50%	1.30%	4.17%	6.56%	10.18%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	65.84%
Chicago Bears	34.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		34.16%
Washington Redskins	65.84%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Washington Redskins 65.84% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.84%

Chicago Bears 34.16% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.16%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1940-09-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-24	1462.16	1537.21	22.08%	71.37%	-3.21	0-1
1940-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 10-3	1458.95	1462.29	29.93%	63.33%	+8.79	1-1
1940-10-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-17	1467.74	1448.38	65.26%	28.04%	+5.51	2-1
1940-10-13	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 21-0	1473.25	1438.88	67.00%	26.34%	+6.60	3-1
1940-10-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-16	1479.85	1566.47	20.97%	72.52%	-3.46	3-2
1940-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-7	1476.39	1429.19	36.36%	56.83%	+11.19	4-2
1940-11-03	New York Giants	L 7-10	1487.58	1527.93	57.74%	35.45%	-5.26	4-3
1940-11-10	Washington Redskins	W 16-14	1482.32	1585.43	49.05%	44.09%	+3.32	5-3
1940-11-17	Cleveland Rams	W 29-14	1485.64	1501.37	60.95%	32.28%	+6.79	6-3
1940-11-24	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-9	1492.43	1435.71	69.46%	23.94%	+2.93	7-3
1940-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 14-6	1495.36	1531.63	26.13%	67.21%	+9.96	8-3
1940-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 41-10	1545.73	1547.46	30.13%	63.13%	+18.44	1-0
1940-09-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-21	1564.17	1454.40	45.04%	48.10%	-8.98	1-1
1940-10-06	@ Cleveland Rams	W 21-14	1555.19	1493.55	38.30%	54.87%	+7.65	2-1
1940-10-13	Detroit Lions	W 7-0	1562.84	1516.94	68.28%	25.08%	+3.63	3-1
1940-10-20	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 16-7	1566.47	1479.85	72.52%	20.97%	+3.46	4-1
1940-10-27	@ New York Giants	W 37-21	1569.93	1540.36	34.04%	59.17%	+12.43	5-1
1940-11-03	Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1582.36	1535.44	68.40%	24.97%	+3.62	6-1
1940-11-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1585.98	1507.17	40.67%	52.49%	-3.78	6-2
1940-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-7	1582.20	1582.11	30.35%	62.91%	-3.30	6-3
1940-11-24	Cleveland Rams	W 47-25	1578.90	1494.59	72.29%	21.19%	+5.46	7-3
1940-12-01	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-23	1584.36	1432.77	78.24%	15.49%	+2.42	8-3
1940-09-08	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	T 7-7	1454.20	1456.58	30.05%	63.21%	+0.42	0-0
1940-09-15	Detroit Lions	T 0-0	1454.62	1511.92	55.46%	37.71%	-0.22	0-0
1940-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 21-7	1454.40	1564.17	48.10%	45.04%	+8.98	1-0
1940-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-31	1463.38	1529.02	23.02%	70.40%	-6.32	1-1
1940-10-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-43	1457.06	1509.76	24.36%	69.03%	-7.19	1-2
1940-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1449.87	1561.02	18.74%	74.83%	-2.73	1-3
1940-10-20	@ Cleveland Rams	L 14-26	1447.14	1480.33	26.47%	66.86%	-5.01	1-4
1940-10-27	Cleveland Rams	W 17-7	1442.13	1485.34	57.36%	35.83%	+6.12	2-4
1940-11-10	Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1448.25	1531.83	51.82%	41.33%	-12.54	2-5
1940-11-24	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 9-14	1435.71	1492.43	23.94%	69.46%	-2.94	2-6
1940-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-31	1432.77	1584.36	15.49%	78.24%	-2.42	2-7
1940-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-13	1493.39	1459.38	66.95%	26.38%	+4.08	1-0
1940-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-6	1497.47	1505.84	29.33%	63.95%	-3.92	1-1
1940-10-06	Chicago Bears	L 14-21	1493.55	1555.19	54.87%	38.30%	-7.64	1-2
1940-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-31	1485.91	1535.34	24.70%	68.67%	-5.58	1-3
1940-10-20	Chicago Cardinals	W 26-14	1480.33	1447.14	66.86%	26.47%	+5.01	2-3
1940-10-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-17	1485.34	1442.13	35.83%	57.36%	-6.11	2-4
1940-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 24-0	1479.23	1516.45	58.16%	35.04%	+9.27	3-4
1940-11-10	@ New York Giants	W 13-0	1488.50	1533.18	25.21%	68.15%	+12.87	4-4
1940-11-17	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-29	1501.37	1485.64	32.28%	60.95%	-6.78	4-5
1940-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 25-47	1494.59	1578.90	21.19%	72.29%	-5.46	4-6
1940-12-01	Green Bay Packers	T 13-13	1489.13	1561.65	53.37%	39.80%	-0.17	4-6
1940-09-15	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 0-0	1511.92	1454.62	37.71%	55.46%	+0.22	0-0
1940-09-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	L 7-10	1512.14	1456.00	69.40%	24.00%	-6.30	0-1
1940-09-29	Cleveland Rams	W 6-0	1505.84	1497.47	63.95%	29.33%	+3.92	1-1
1940-10-05	Chicago Cardinals	W 43-14	1509.76	1457.06	69.03%	24.36%	+7.18	2-1
1940-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-7	1516.94	1562.84	25.08%	68.28%	-3.63	2-2
1940-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-14	1513.31	1540.92	27.10%	66.22%	+10.41	3-2
1940-10-27	Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1523.72	1573.84	56.44%	36.75%	-7.27	3-3
1940-11-03	@ Cleveland Rams	L 0-24	1516.45	1479.23	35.04%	58.16%	-9.28	3-4
1940-11-10	Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1507.17	1585.98	52.49%	40.67%	+3.78	4-4
1940-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-0	1510.95	1414.73	43.12%	50.03%	+12.13	5-4
1940-11-24	Green Bay Packers	L 7-50	1523.08	1540.75	60.70%	32.53%	-20.89	5-5
1940-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1544.34	1462.50	72.05%	21.42%	+3.12	1-0
1940-09-22	Chicago Bears	L 10-41	1547.46	1545.73	63.13%	30.13%	-18.44	1-1
1940-09-29	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-6	1529.02	1463.38	70.40%	23.02%	+6.32	2-1
1940-10-13	Cleveland Rams	W 31-14	1535.34	1485.91	68.67%	24.70%	+5.58	3-1
1940-10-20	Detroit Lions	L 14-23	1540.92	1513.31	66.22%	27.10%	-10.41	3-2
1940-10-27	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 24-3	1530.51	1428.59	73.98%	19.56%	+4.93	4-2
1940-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-14	1535.44	1582.36	24.97%	68.40%	-3.61	4-3
1940-11-10	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-7	1531.83	1448.25	41.33%	51.82%	+12.54	5-3
1940-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 3-7	1544.37	1520.31	33.34%	59.88%	-3.62	5-4
1940-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 50-7	1540.75	1523.08	32.53%	60.70%	+20.90	6-4
1940-12-01	@ Cleveland Rams	T 13-13	1561.65	1489.13	39.80%	53.37%	+0.17	6-4
1940-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	T 10-10	1531.98	1456.16	40.25%	52.91%	+0.16	0-0
1940-09-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-21	1532.14	1540.41	29.34%	63.93%	-5.98	0-1
1940-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1526.16	1455.30	39.57%	53.60%	+6.92	1-1
1940-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-7	1533.08	1442.87	72.87%	20.63%	+3.59	2-1
1940-10-20	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 12-0	1536.67	1432.28	74.21%	19.34%	+3.69	3-1
1940-10-27	Chicago Bears	L 21-37	1540.36	1569.93	59.17%	34.04%	-12.43	3-2
1940-11-03	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 10-7	1527.93	1487.58	35.45%	57.74%	+5.25	4-2
1940-11-10	Cleveland Rams	L 0-13	1533.18	1488.50	68.15%	25.21%	-12.87	4-3
1940-11-17	Green Bay Packers	W 7-3	1520.31	1544.37	59.88%	33.34%	+3.61	5-3
1940-11-24	Washington Redskins	W 21-7	1523.92	1585.41	54.89%	38.28%	+7.71	6-3
1940-12-01	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 6-14	1531.63	1495.36	67.21%	26.13%	-9.96	6-4
1940-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1462.50	1544.34	21.42%	72.05%	-3.12	0-1
1940-09-22	@ Cleveland Rams	L 13-21	1459.38	1493.39	26.38%	66.95%	-4.08	0-2
1940-09-28	New York Giants	L 14-20	1455.30	1526.16	53.60%	39.57%	-6.92	0-3
1940-10-04	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 17-30	1448.38	1467.74	28.04%	65.26%	-5.51	0-4
1940-10-13	@ New York Giants	L 7-17	1442.87	1533.08	20.63%	72.87%	-3.59	0-5
1940-10-20	Washington Redskins	L 17-34	1439.28	1563.75	45.99%	47.16%	-10.09	0-6
1940-10-26	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-21	1429.19	1476.39	56.83%	36.36%	-11.18	0-7
1940-11-10	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 3-7	1418.01	1419.33	30.18%	63.09%	-3.28	0-8
1940-11-17	Detroit Lions	L 0-21	1414.73	1510.95	50.03%	43.12%	-12.13	0-9
1940-11-28	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 7-0	1402.60	1422.62	60.40%	32.82%	+4.70	1-9
1940-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-13	1407.30	1577.70	14.14%	79.66%	-2.07	1-10
1940-09-08	Chicago Cardinals	T 7-7	1456.58	1454.20	63.21%	30.05%	-0.42	0-0
1940-09-15	New York Giants	T 10-10	1456.16	1531.98	52.91%	40.25%	-0.16	0-0
1940-09-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 10-7	1456.00	1512.14	24.00%	69.40%	+6.29	1-0
1940-09-29	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 3-10	1462.29	1458.95	63.33%	29.93%	-8.78	1-1
1940-10-06	Washington Redskins	L 10-40	1453.51	1546.39	50.51%	42.64%	-14.63	1-2
1940-10-13	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-21	1438.88	1473.25	26.34%	67.00%	-6.60	1-3
1940-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 0-12	1432.28	1536.67	19.34%	74.21%	-3.69	1-4
1940-10-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-24	1428.59	1530.51	19.56%	73.98%	-4.94	1-5
1940-11-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-37	1423.65	1581.11	15.06%	78.69%	-4.32	1-6
1940-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-3	1419.33	1418.01	63.09%	30.18%	+3.29	2-6
1940-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-7	1422.62	1402.60	32.82%	60.40%	-4.71	2-7
1940-09-15	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 24-17	1537.21	1462.16	71.37%	22.08%	+3.20	1-0
1940-09-22	New York Giants	W 21-7	1540.41	1532.14	63.93%	29.34%	+5.98	2-0
1940-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 40-10	1546.39	1453.51	42.64%	50.51%	+14.63	3-0
1940-10-13	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-21	1561.02	1449.87	74.83%	18.74%	+2.73	4-0
1940-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-17	1563.75	1439.28	47.16%	45.99%	+10.09	5-0
1940-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-14	1573.84	1523.72	36.75%	56.44%	+7.27	6-0
1940-11-03	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 37-10	1581.11	1423.65	78.69%	15.06%	+4.32	7-0
1940-11-10	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-16	1585.43	1482.32	44.09%	49.05%	-3.32	7-1
1940-11-17	Chicago Bears	W 7-3	1582.11	1582.20	62.91%	30.35%	+3.30	8-1
1940-11-24	@ New York Giants	L 7-21	1585.41	1523.92	38.28%	54.89%	-7.71	8-2
1940-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-6	1577.70	1407.30	79.66%	14.14%	+2.07	9-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1940-12-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 73-0	1586.78	1579.77	34.24%	65.76%	+27.82	1-0
1940-12-08	Chicago Bears	L 0-73	1579.77	1586.78	65.76%	34.24%	-27.81	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1940-09-22	24.00%	Pittsburgh Pirates	1456.00	10	@ Detroit Lions	1512.14	7
2	1940-11-10	25.21%	Cleveland Rams	1488.50	13	@ New York Giants	1533.18	0
3	1940-12-01	26.13%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1495.36	14	@ New York Giants	1531.63	6
4	1940-10-20	27.10%	Detroit Lions	1513.31	23	@ Green Bay Packers	1540.92	14
5	1940-09-29	29.93%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1458.95	10	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1462.29	3
6	1940-09-22	30.13%	Chicago Bears	1545.73	41	@ Green Bay Packers	1547.46	10
7	1940-11-24	32.53%	Green Bay Packers	1540.75	50	@ Detroit Lions	1523.08	7
8	1940-10-27	34.04%	Chicago Bears	1569.93	37	@ New York Giants	1540.36	21
9	1940-12-08 *	34.24%	Chicago Bears	1586.78	73	@ Washington Redskins	1579.77	0
10	1940-11-03	35.45%	New York Giants	1527.93	10	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1487.58	7
11	1940-10-26	36.36%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1476.39	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1429.19	7
12	1940-10-27	36.75%	Washington Redskins	1573.84	20	@ Detroit Lions	1523.72	14
13	1940-10-06	38.30%	Chicago Bears	1555.19	21	@ Cleveland Rams	1493.55	14
14	1940-09-28	39.57%	New York Giants	1526.16	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1455.30	14
15	1940-11-10	41.33%	Green Bay Packers	1531.83	28	@ Chicago Cardinals	1448.25	7
16	1940-10-06	42.64%	Washington Redskins	1546.39	40	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1453.51	10
17	1940-11-17	43.12%	Detroit Lions	1510.95	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1414.73	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1940-12-08 *	27.82	Chicago Bears	73	1586.78	34.24%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1579.77	65.76%
2	1940-11-24	20.90	Green Bay Packers	50	1540.75	32.53%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1523.08	60.70%
3	1940-09-22	18.44	Chicago Bears	41	1545.73	30.13%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1547.46	63.13%
4	1940-10-06	14.63	Washington Redskins	40	1546.39	42.64%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	10	1453.51	50.51%
5	1940-11-10	12.87	Cleveland Rams	13	1488.50	25.21%	@ New York Giants	0	1533.18	68.15%
6	1940-11-10	12.54	Green Bay Packers	28	1531.83	41.33%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1448.25	51.82%
7	1940-10-27	12.43	Chicago Bears	37	1569.93	34.04%	@ New York Giants	21	1540.36	59.17%
8	1940-11-17	12.13	Detroit Lions	21	1510.95	43.12%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1414.73	50.03%
9	1940-10-26	11.19	Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1476.39	36.36%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1429.19	56.83%
10	1940-10-20	10.41	Detroit Lions	23	1513.31	27.10%	@ Green Bay Packers	14	1540.92	66.22%
11	1940-10-20	10.09	Washington Redskins	34	1563.75	47.16%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	17	1439.28	45.99%
12	1940-12-01	9.96	Brooklyn Dodgers	14	1495.36	26.13%	@ New York Giants	6	1531.63	67.21%
13	1940-11-03	9.28	@ Cleveland Rams	24	1479.23	58.16%	Detroit Lions	0	1516.45	35.04%
14	1940-09-25	8.98	@ Chicago Cardinals	21	1454.40	48.10%	Chicago Bears	7	1564.17	45.04%
15	1940-09-29	8.79	Brooklyn Dodgers	10	1458.95	29.93%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	3	1462.29	63.33%
16	1940-11-24	7.71	@ New York Giants	21	1523.92	54.89%	Washington Redskins	7	1585.41	38.28%
17	1940-10-06	7.65	Chicago Bears	21	1555.19	38.30%	@ Cleveland Rams	14	1493.55	54.87%
18	1940-10-27	7.27	Washington Redskins	20	1573.84	36.75%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1523.72	56.44%
19	1940-10-05	7.19	@ Detroit Lions	43	1509.76	69.03%	Chicago Cardinals	14	1457.06	24.36%
20	1940-09-28	6.92	New York Giants	20	1526.16	39.57%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	14	1455.30	53.60%
21	1940-11-17	6.79	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	29	1485.64	60.95%	Cleveland Rams	14	1501.37	32.28%
22	1940-10-13	6.60	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1473.25	67.00%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1438.88	26.34%
23	1940-09-29	6.32	@ Green Bay Packers	31	1529.02	70.40%	Chicago Cardinals	6	1463.38	23.02%
24	1940-09-22	6.30	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	1456.00	24.00%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1512.14	69.40%
25	1940-10-27	6.12	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1442.13	57.36%	Cleveland Rams	7	1485.34	35.83%