1939 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Green Bay Packers

5th Title

Last Title: 1936

Runner-Up

New York Giants

5th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1938

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

3.00 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.50 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

3.25 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.75 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	9	1	1	.864	—	168	85	+83	6.50	+3.00
2	Washington Redskins	8	2	1	.773	1	242	94	+148	6.20	+2.30
3	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	6	1	.409	5	108	219	-111	5.50	-1.00
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	9	1	.136	8	114	216	-102	4.51	-3.01
5	Philadelphia Eagles	1	9	1	.136	8	105	200	-95	4.75	-3.25

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	9	2	0	.818	—	233	153	+80	6.39	+2.61
2	Chicago Bears	8	3	0	.727	1	298	157	+141	6.04	+1.96
3	Detroit Lions	6	5	0	.545	3	145	150	-5	5.89	+0.11
4	Cleveland Rams	5	5	1	.500	3.5	195	164	+31	5.18	+0.32
5	Chicago Cardinals	1	10	0	.091	8	84	254	-170	4.04	-3.04

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Green Bay Packers 27

New York Giants 0

Dec 10

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	West	1577	9	6.39	+2.61	98.83%	3	5	6	7	9	11
Chicago Bears	West	1575	8	6.04	+1.96	96.44%	3	5	6	7	8	11
New York Giants	East	1567	9.5	6.50	+3.00	98.70%	4	5	6	7	9	11
Washington Redskins	East	1559	8.5	6.20	+2.30	95.40%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1521	6	5.89	+0.11	71.51%	3	4	6	7	8	11
Cleveland Rams	West	1487	5.5	5.18	+0.32	66.19%	2	4	5	6	7	10
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1444	4.5	5.50	-1.00	33.54%	3	4	5	6	8	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1430	1.5	4.75	-3.25	2.30%	2	3	4	6	7	10
Chicago Cardinals	West	1420	1	4.04	-3.04	6.31%	1	3	4	5	6	10
Pittsburgh Pirates	East	1419	1.5	4.51	-3.01	3.29%	2	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—
Washington Redskins	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Chicago Bears	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	3.64%	6.36%	2.73%	0.91%	1.82%	—	0.91%	16.36%
7–13	6.36%	5.45%	5.45%	7.27%	2.73%	1.82%	1.82%	30.91%
14–20	2.73%	5.45%	5.45%	6.36%	—	—	0.91%	20.91%
21–27	0.91%	7.27%	6.36%	1.82%	1.82%	0.91%	—	19.09%
28–34	1.82%	2.73%	—	1.82%	—	—	—	6.36%
35–41	—	1.82%	—	0.91%	—	—	—	2.73%
42+	0.91%	1.82%	0.91%	—	—	—	—	3.64%
Total	16.36%	30.91%	20.91%	19.09%	6.36%	2.73%	3.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.38	15.38	+0.00
SD	10.95	10.95	16.35
CV	0.71	0.71	—
Max	48	48	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	36.36%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	36.36%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.82	19.91	-10.09
SD	8.57	14.10	18.16
CV	0.87	0.71	—
Max	23	42	+11
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	9.09%	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	18.18%	36.36%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.09	14.27	+12.82
SD	13.78	7.94	17.19
CV	0.51	0.56	—
Max	48	27	+41
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	9.09%	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	18.18%	63.64%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	—	36.36%	27.27%	9.09%	—	18.18%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.64	23.09	-15.45
SD	5.77	13.69	14.70
CV	0.76	0.59	—
Max	20	48	+10
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	36.36%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.73	14.91	+2.82
SD	8.79	11.97	13.27
CV	0.50	0.80	—
Max	35	35	+24
Min	6	0	-14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.18	13.64	-0.45
SD	7.22	9.66	14.22
CV	0.55	0.71	—
Max	27	31	+20
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	9.09%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	63.64%
28–34	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.18	13.91	+7.27
SD	7.03	9.18	9.20
CV	0.33	0.66	—
Max	28	30	+28
Min	7	0	-3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
21–27	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	63.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.27	7.73	+7.55
SD	8.44	4.76	7.99
CV	0.55	0.62	—
Max	28	18	+21
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	27.27%	—	—	—	—	—	36.36%
7–13	—	—	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	27.27%	—	—	—	36.36%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	45.45%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.55	18.18	-8.64
SD	6.27	10.69	7.45
CV	0.66	0.59	—
Max	17	35	+3
Min	0	0	-22

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	36.36%
21–27	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	27.27%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.36	19.64	-9.27
SD	7.03	10.23	12.75
CV	0.68	0.52	—
Max	24	44	+12
Min	0	10	-32

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	8.55	+13.45
SD	16.08	7.41	16.36
CV	0.73	0.87	—
Max	44	24	+42
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 11

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	9.5	6.50	+3.00
2	Green Bay Packers	9	6.39	+2.61
3	Washington Redskins	8.5	6.20	+2.30
4	Chicago Bears	8	6.04	+1.96
5	Cleveland Rams	5.5	5.18	+0.32

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	1.5	4.75	-3.25
2	Chicago Cardinals	1	4.04	-3.04
3	Pittsburgh Pirates	1.5	4.51	-3.01
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	4.5	5.50	-1.00
5	Detroit Lions	6	5.89	+0.11

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	4	Nov 12 – Dec 3	1 in 23
2	Chicago Bears	4	Nov 5 – Nov 26	1 in 13
3	New York Giants	4	Oct 8 – Oct 29	1 in 11
4	Detroit Lions	4	Sep 10 – Oct 15	1 in 8
5	Washington Redskins	4	Nov 5 – Nov 26	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	8	Oct 1 – Nov 26	1 in 86
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	Sep 14 – Oct 22	1 in 59
3	Detroit Lions	4	Nov 12 – Dec 3	1 in 23
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	Oct 15 – Nov 19	1 in 9
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	Nov 12 – Nov 26	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	38.14%	25.96%	18.57%	11.17%	6.16%
Washington Redskins	30.37%	26.97%	20.24%	13.75%	8.67%
Brooklyn Dodgers	16.73%	21.47%	23.98%	21.67%	16.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.99%	13.80%	18.85%	26.70%	32.66%
Pittsburgh Pirates	6.77%	11.80%	18.36%	26.71%	36.36%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Green Bay Packers	33.88%	26.41%	19.41%	13.45%	6.85%
Chicago Bears	26.49%	23.79%	22.46%	17.78%	9.48%
Detroit Lions	23.68%	24.21%	22.43%	18.42%	11.26%
Cleveland Rams	12.71%	18.25%	22.77%	26.72%	19.55%
Chicago Cardinals	3.24%	7.34%	12.93%	23.63%	52.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
New York Giants	20.11%	17.39%	13.74%	12.53%	9.77%	8.74%	6.60%	5.26%	3.60%	2.26%
Green Bay Packers	18.26%	15.78%	14.68%	11.66%	10.42%	9.39%	7.19%	5.87%	4.35%	2.40%
Washington Redskins	15.99%	14.27%	13.65%	12.79%	10.97%	9.64%	7.87%	6.25%	5.39%	3.18%
Chicago Bears	13.49%	13.41%	11.80%	12.28%	11.38%	10.89%	9.50%	7.67%	5.34%	4.24%
Detroit Lions	12.38%	12.18%	12.29%	11.18%	11.52%	10.75%	10.06%	8.16%	6.84%	4.64%
Brooklyn Dodgers	7.78%	9.03%	10.64%	10.61%	11.68%	11.54%	11.11%	11.23%	9.42%	6.96%
Cleveland Rams	5.04%	7.57%	8.68%	9.90%	10.97%	11.36%	13.16%	12.47%	10.88%	9.97%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.28%	4.53%	6.17%	7.65%	9.26%	10.18%	12.21%	14.54%	16.55%	15.63%
Pittsburgh Pirates	2.36%	3.78%	5.23%	6.80%	8.36%	10.23%	11.93%	14.30%	17.42%	19.59%
Chicago Cardinals	1.31%	2.06%	3.12%	4.60%	5.67%	7.28%	10.37%	14.25%	20.21%	31.13%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	38.14%	61.86%
Washington Redskins	30.37%	69.63%
Brooklyn Dodgers	16.73%	83.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.99%	92.01%
Pittsburgh Pirates	6.77%	93.23%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	33.88%	66.12%
Chicago Bears	26.49%	73.51%
Detroit Lions	23.68%	76.32%
Cleveland Rams	12.71%	87.29%
Chicago Cardinals	3.24%	96.76%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	33.88%	23.92%
Chicago Bears	26.49%	18.06%
New York Giants	38.14%	15.31%
Detroit Lions	23.68%	14.58%
Washington Redskins	30.37%	12.07%
Cleveland Rams	12.71%	7.20%
Brooklyn Dodgers	16.73%	3.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.99%	1.92%
Chicago Cardinals	3.24%	1.55%
Pittsburgh Pirates	6.77%	1.40%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Brooklyn Dodgers	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Rams	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Pirates	Washington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers		1.08%	0.35%	0.56%	1.04%	0.96%
Chicago Bears	3.86%						5.79%	1.67%	1.22%	5.52%
Chicago Cardinals	0.36%						0.48%	0.23%	0.11%	0.37%
Cleveland Rams	1.21%						2.68%	0.47%	0.52%	2.32%
Detroit Lions	3.11%						4.83%	1.65%	1.30%	3.69%
Green Bay Packers	4.20%						9.05%	2.05%	2.22%	6.40%
New York Giants		3.42%	0.63%	2.54%	4.00%	4.72%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.43%	0.10%	0.24%	0.54%	0.61%
Pittsburgh Pirates		0.31%	0.06%	0.17%	0.43%	0.43%
Washington Redskins		3.19%	0.55%	2.00%	3.09%	3.24%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	64.05%
New York Giants	35.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants
Green Bay Packers		64.05%
New York Giants	35.95%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 64.05% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.05%

New York Giants 35.95% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.95%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1939-09-14	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 12-7	1477.70	1465.27	61.37%	33.06%	+3.65	1-0
1939-09-20	Cleveland Rams	W 23-12	1481.35	1468.39	61.43%	32.99%	+5.40	2-0
1939-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-27	1486.75	1526.11	29.73%	64.73%	-6.59	2-1
1939-10-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 0-0	1480.16	1461.68	37.11%	57.29%	+0.24	2-1
1939-10-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-41	1480.40	1516.12	30.16%	64.29%	-7.90	2-2
1939-10-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-14	1472.50	1456.39	61.84%	32.59%	+4.82	3-2
1939-10-29	New York Giants	L 6-7	1477.32	1553.51	49.23%	45.14%	-2.38	3-3
1939-11-06	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 17-13	1474.94	1421.46	66.41%	28.06%	+2.78	4-3
1939-11-12	Washington Redskins	L 0-42	1477.72	1532.48	52.28%	42.10%	-16.36	4-4
1939-11-19	Green Bay Packers	L 0-28	1461.36	1556.62	46.49%	47.88%	-11.94	4-5
1939-11-26	@ New York Giants	L 7-28	1449.42	1559.73	21.97%	72.60%	-5.03	4-6
1939-09-15	Cleveland Rams	W 30-21	1528.34	1472.53	66.69%	27.79%	+4.14	1-0
1939-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-21	1532.48	1539.58	33.74%	60.68%	-3.72	1-1
1939-10-02	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 32-0	1528.76	1452.77	45.12%	49.26%	+13.49	2-1
1939-10-08	@ Cleveland Rams	W 35-21	1542.25	1468.76	44.76%	49.62%	+8.99	3-1
1939-10-15	Chicago Cardinals	W 44-7	1551.24	1468.95	69.67%	24.85%	+7.52	4-1
1939-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 13-16	1558.76	1550.47	35.75%	58.66%	-3.04	4-2
1939-10-29	Detroit Lions	L 0-10	1555.72	1538.17	62.02%	32.41%	-9.43	4-3
1939-11-05	Green Bay Packers	W 30-27	1546.29	1553.77	58.77%	35.64%	+3.04	5-3
1939-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-13	1549.33	1551.11	34.43%	59.99%	+9.12	6-3
1939-11-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-14	1558.45	1444.42	72.97%	21.61%	+3.89	7-3
1939-11-26	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 48-7	1562.34	1432.86	52.75%	41.63%	+13.02	8-3
1939-09-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-21	1479.97	1521.99	29.41%	65.05%	-4.12	0-1
1939-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-14	1475.85	1536.88	27.19%	67.29%	-2.70	0-2
1939-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 10-0	1473.15	1461.62	36.18%	58.23%	+8.86	1-2
1939-10-01	Detroit Lions	L 3-17	1482.01	1532.69	52.85%	41.53%	-9.54	1-3
1939-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1472.47	1537.52	26.74%	67.75%	-3.52	1-4
1939-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-44	1468.95	1551.24	24.85%	69.67%	-7.52	1-5
1939-10-22	Cleveland Rams	L 0-24	1461.43	1456.28	60.43%	33.99%	-14.23	1-6
1939-11-05	@ Cleveland Rams	L 0-14	1447.20	1470.07	31.74%	62.69%	-5.87	1-7
1939-11-12	@ New York Giants	L 7-17	1441.33	1552.38	21.90%	72.67%	-3.46	1-8
1939-11-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-28	1437.87	1548.84	21.90%	72.66%	-5.01	1-9
1939-11-26	Chicago Bears	L 7-48	1432.86	1562.34	41.63%	52.75%	-13.02	1-10
1939-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-30	1472.53	1528.34	27.79%	66.69%	-4.14	0-1
1939-09-20	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 12-23	1468.39	1481.35	32.99%	61.43%	-5.40	0-2
1939-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-24	1462.99	1543.30	25.06%	69.46%	+5.77	1-2
1939-10-08	Chicago Bears	L 21-35	1468.76	1542.25	49.62%	44.76%	-8.98	1-3
1939-10-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-15	1459.78	1542.24	24.83%	69.69%	-3.50	1-4
1939-10-22	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-0	1456.28	1461.43	33.99%	60.43%	+14.23	2-4
1939-10-29	Pittsburgh Pirates	T 14-14	1470.51	1421.02	65.94%	28.52%	-0.44	2-4
1939-11-05	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-0	1470.07	1447.20	62.69%	31.74%	+5.87	3-4
1939-11-19	Detroit Lions	W 14-3	1475.94	1541.99	50.68%	43.70%	+7.06	4-4
1939-11-26	Green Bay Packers	L 6-7	1483.00	1568.57	47.89%	46.49%	-2.32	4-5
1939-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-13	1480.68	1436.63	65.30%	29.17%	+6.78	5-5
1939-09-10	Chicago Cardinals	W 21-13	1521.99	1479.97	65.05%	29.41%	+4.12	1-0
1939-09-24	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 27-7	1526.11	1486.75	64.73%	29.73%	+6.58	2-0
1939-10-01	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-3	1532.69	1482.01	41.53%	52.85%	+9.55	3-0
1939-10-15	Cleveland Rams	W 15-7	1542.24	1459.78	69.69%	24.83%	+3.49	4-0
1939-10-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-26	1545.73	1541.04	35.27%	59.13%	-7.56	4-1
1939-10-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1538.17	1555.72	32.41%	62.02%	+9.42	5-1
1939-11-05	New York Giants	W 18-14	1547.59	1555.90	58.66%	35.75%	+3.52	6-1
1939-11-12	Chicago Bears	L 13-23	1551.11	1549.33	59.99%	34.43%	-9.12	6-2
1939-11-19	@ Cleveland Rams	L 3-14	1541.99	1475.94	43.70%	50.68%	-7.07	6-3
1939-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1534.92	1553.85	32.24%	62.19%	-7.80	6-4
1939-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-12	1527.12	1570.89	53.82%	40.57%	-5.80	6-5
1939-09-17	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-10	1536.88	1475.85	67.29%	27.19%	+2.70	1-0
1939-09-24	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1539.58	1532.48	60.68%	33.74%	+3.72	2-0
1939-10-01	Cleveland Rams	L 24-27	1543.30	1462.99	69.46%	25.06%	-5.78	2-1
1939-10-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-20	1537.52	1472.47	67.75%	26.74%	+3.52	3-1
1939-10-22	Detroit Lions	W 26-7	1541.04	1545.73	59.13%	35.27%	+7.57	4-1
1939-10-29	Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1548.61	1536.39	61.34%	33.09%	+5.16	5-1
1939-11-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 27-30	1553.77	1546.29	35.64%	58.77%	-3.04	5-2
1939-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-16	1550.73	1450.31	48.62%	45.75%	+5.89	6-2
1939-11-19	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 28-0	1556.62	1461.36	47.88%	46.49%	+11.95	7-2
1939-11-26	@ Cleveland Rams	W 7-6	1568.57	1483.00	46.49%	47.89%	+2.32	8-2
1939-12-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 12-7	1570.89	1527.12	40.57%	53.82%	+5.80	9-2
1939-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-3	1531.46	1469.52	43.12%	51.26%	+7.84	1-0
1939-10-01	@ Washington Redskins	T 0-0	1539.30	1516.34	37.71%	56.68%	+0.22	1-0
1939-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 14-7	1539.52	1439.27	48.60%	45.78%	+5.88	2-0
1939-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1545.40	1461.45	69.85%	24.67%	+5.07	3-0
1939-10-22	Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1550.47	1558.76	58.66%	35.75%	+3.04	4-0
1939-10-29	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 7-6	1553.51	1477.32	45.14%	49.23%	+2.39	5-0
1939-11-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-18	1555.90	1547.59	35.75%	58.66%	-3.52	5-1
1939-11-12	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-7	1552.38	1441.33	72.67%	21.90%	+3.46	6-1
1939-11-19	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 23-7	1555.84	1418.67	75.17%	19.45%	+3.89	7-1
1939-11-26	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 28-7	1559.73	1449.42	72.60%	21.97%	+5.03	8-1
1939-12-03	Washington Redskins	W 9-7	1564.76	1561.65	60.16%	34.26%	+2.38	9-1
1939-09-17	Washington Redskins	L 0-7	1476.57	1509.28	55.35%	39.04%	-7.05	0-1
1939-09-24	New York Giants	L 3-13	1469.52	1531.46	51.26%	43.12%	-7.84	0-2
1939-10-01	Brooklyn Dodgers	T 0-0	1461.68	1480.16	57.29%	37.11%	-0.23	0-2
1939-10-15	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1461.45	1545.40	24.67%	69.85%	-5.06	0-3
1939-10-22	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-23	1456.39	1472.50	32.59%	61.84%	-4.83	0-4
1939-11-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-7	1451.56	1531.23	25.13%	69.39%	-1.25	0-5
1939-11-12	Green Bay Packers	L 16-23	1450.31	1550.73	45.75%	48.62%	-5.89	0-6
1939-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-27	1444.42	1558.45	21.61%	72.97%	-3.89	0-7
1939-11-23	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 17-14	1440.53	1414.78	63.05%	31.39%	+2.69	1-7
1939-11-26	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 12-24	1443.22	1412.09	38.82%	55.57%	-6.59	1-8
1939-12-03	@ Cleveland Rams	L 13-35	1436.63	1480.68	29.17%	65.30%	-6.78	1-9
1939-09-14	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-12	1465.27	1477.70	33.06%	61.37%	-3.65	0-1
1939-09-24	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-10	1461.62	1473.15	58.23%	36.18%	-8.85	0-2
1939-10-02	Chicago Bears	L 0-32	1452.77	1528.76	49.26%	45.12%	-13.50	0-3
1939-10-08	New York Giants	L 7-14	1439.27	1539.52	45.78%	48.60%	-5.88	0-4
1939-10-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-44	1433.39	1524.02	23.96%	70.57%	-6.54	0-5
1939-10-22	Washington Redskins	L 14-21	1426.85	1530.56	45.28%	49.09%	-5.83	0-6
1939-10-29	@ Cleveland Rams	T 14-14	1421.02	1470.51	28.52%	65.94%	+0.44	0-6
1939-11-06	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 13-17	1421.46	1474.94	28.06%	66.41%	-2.79	0-7
1939-11-19	@ New York Giants	L 7-23	1418.67	1555.84	19.45%	75.17%	-3.89	0-8
1939-11-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1414.78	1440.53	31.39%	63.05%	-2.69	0-9
1939-11-26	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-12	1412.09	1443.22	55.57%	38.82%	+6.59	1-9
1939-09-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-0	1509.28	1476.57	39.04%	55.35%	+7.06	1-0
1939-10-01	New York Giants	T 0-0	1516.34	1539.30	56.68%	37.71%	-0.22	1-0
1939-10-08	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 41-13	1516.12	1480.40	64.29%	30.16%	+7.90	2-0
1939-10-15	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 44-14	1524.02	1433.39	70.57%	23.96%	+6.54	3-0
1939-10-22	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 21-14	1530.56	1426.85	49.09%	45.28%	+5.83	4-0
1939-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1536.39	1548.61	33.09%	61.34%	-5.16	4-1
1939-11-05	Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-6	1531.23	1451.56	69.39%	25.13%	+1.25	5-1
1939-11-12	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 42-0	1532.48	1477.72	42.10%	52.28%	+16.36	6-1
1939-11-19	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-7	1548.84	1437.87	72.66%	21.90%	+5.01	7-1
1939-11-26	Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1553.85	1534.92	62.19%	32.24%	+7.80	8-1
1939-12-03	@ New York Giants	L 7-9	1561.65	1564.76	34.26%	60.16%	-2.39	8-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1939-12-10	New York Giants	W 27-0	1576.69	1567.14	64.00%	36.00%	+8.57	1-0
1939-12-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-27	1567.14	1576.69	36.00%	64.00%	-8.56	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1939-10-01	25.06%	Cleveland Rams	1462.99	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1543.30	24
2	1939-10-29	32.41%	Detroit Lions	1538.17	10	@ Chicago Bears	1555.72	0
3	1939-10-22	33.99%	Cleveland Rams	1456.28	24	@ Chicago Cardinals	1461.43	0
4	1939-11-12	34.43%	Chicago Bears	1549.33	23	@ Detroit Lions	1551.11	13
5	1939-09-24	36.18%	Chicago Cardinals	1473.15	10	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1461.62	0
6	1939-09-17	39.04%	Washington Redskins	1509.28	7	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1476.57	0
7	1939-12-03	40.57%	Green Bay Packers	1570.89	12	@ Detroit Lions	1527.12	7
8	1939-10-01	41.53%	Detroit Lions	1532.69	17	@ Chicago Cardinals	1482.01	3
9	1939-11-12	42.10%	Washington Redskins	1532.48	42	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1477.72	0
10	1939-09-24	43.12%	New York Giants	1531.46	13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1469.52	3
11	1939-10-08	44.76%	Chicago Bears	1542.25	35	@ Cleveland Rams	1468.76	21
12	1939-10-02	45.12%	Chicago Bears	1528.76	32	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1452.77	0
13	1939-10-29	45.14%	New York Giants	1553.51	7	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1477.32	6
14	1939-11-26	46.49%	Green Bay Packers	1568.57	7	@ Cleveland Rams	1483.00	6

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1939-11-12	16.36	Washington Redskins	42	1532.48	42.10%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1477.72	52.28%
2	1939-10-22	14.23	Cleveland Rams	24	1456.28	33.99%	@ Chicago Cardinals	0	1461.43	60.43%
3	1939-10-02	13.50	Chicago Bears	32	1528.76	45.12%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1452.77	49.26%
4	1939-11-26	13.02	Chicago Bears	48	1562.34	52.75%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1432.86	41.63%
5	1939-11-19	11.95	Green Bay Packers	28	1556.62	47.88%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1461.36	46.49%
6	1939-10-01	9.55	Detroit Lions	17	1532.69	41.53%	@ Chicago Cardinals	3	1482.01	52.85%
7	1939-10-29	9.43	Detroit Lions	10	1538.17	32.41%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1555.72	62.02%
8	1939-11-12	9.12	Chicago Bears	23	1549.33	34.43%	@ Detroit Lions	13	1551.11	59.99%
9	1939-10-08	8.99	Chicago Bears	35	1542.25	44.76%	@ Cleveland Rams	21	1468.76	49.62%
10	1939-09-24	8.86	Chicago Cardinals	10	1473.15	36.18%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1461.62	58.23%
11	1939-12-10 *	8.57	@ Green Bay Packers	27	1576.69	64.00%	New York Giants	0	1567.14	36.00%
12	1939-10-08	7.90	@ Washington Redskins	41	1516.12	64.29%	Brooklyn Dodgers	13	1480.40	30.16%
13	1939-09-24	7.84	New York Giants	13	1531.46	43.12%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	3	1469.52	51.26%
14	1939-11-26	7.80	@ Washington Redskins	31	1553.85	62.19%	Detroit Lions	7	1534.92	32.24%
15	1939-10-22	7.57	@ Green Bay Packers	26	1541.04	59.13%	Detroit Lions	7	1545.73	35.27%
16	1939-10-15	7.52	@ Chicago Bears	44	1551.24	69.67%	Chicago Cardinals	7	1468.95	24.85%
17	1939-11-19	7.07	@ Cleveland Rams	14	1475.94	50.68%	Detroit Lions	3	1541.99	43.70%
18	1939-09-17	7.06	Washington Redskins	7	1509.28	39.04%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1476.57	55.35%
19	1939-12-03	6.78	@ Cleveland Rams	35	1480.68	65.30%	Philadelphia Eagles	13	1436.63	29.17%
20	1939-11-26	6.59	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	24	1412.09	55.57%	Philadelphia Eagles	12	1443.22	38.82%
21	1939-09-24	6.59	@ Detroit Lions	27	1526.11	64.73%	Brooklyn Dodgers	7	1486.75	29.73%
22	1939-10-15	6.54	@ Washington Redskins	44	1524.02	70.57%	Pittsburgh Pirates	14	1433.39	23.96%
23	1939-11-12	5.89	Green Bay Packers	23	1550.73	48.62%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	16	1450.31	45.75%
24	1939-10-08	5.88	New York Giants	14	1539.52	48.60%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	7	1439.27	45.78%
25	1939-11-05	5.87	@ Cleveland Rams	14	1470.07	62.69%	Chicago Cardinals	0	1447.20	31.74%