1938 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New York Giants

3rd Title

Last Title: 1934

Runner-Up

Green Bay Packers

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1936

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

2.43 wins above expected

8 wins · 6.07 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Pittsburgh Pirates

2.99 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.99 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	8	2	1	.773	—	194	79	+115	6.07	+2.43
2	Washington Redskins	6	3	2	.636	1.5	148	154	-6	6.10	+0.90
3	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	4	3	.500	3	131	161	-30	4.99	+0.51
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	6	0	.455	3.5	154	164	-10	4.87	+0.13
5	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	9	0	.182	6.5	79	169	-90	4.99	-2.99

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	8	3	.727	—	223	118	+105	6.20	+1.80
2	Detroit Lions	7	4	.636	1	119	108	+11	6.19	+0.81
3	Chicago Bears	6	5	.545	2	194	148	+46	6.04	-0.04
4	Cleveland Rams	4	7	.364	4	131	215	-84	4.61	-0.61
5	Chicago Cardinals	2	9	.182	6	111	168	-57	4.93	-2.93

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

New York Giants 23

Green Bay Packers 17

Dec 11

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	West	1568	8	6.20	+1.80	95.03%	3	5	6	7	8	11
New York Giants	East	1548	8.5	6.07	+2.43	96.12%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Chicago Bears	West	1547	6	6.04	-0.04	69.45%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1542	7	6.19	+0.81	84.69%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Washington Redskins	East	1519	7	6.10	+0.90	86.58%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1464	5.5	4.99	+0.51	71.64%	2	3	5	6	7	10
Chicago Cardinals	West	1460	2	4.93	-2.93	10.07%	2	3	4	6	7	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1459	5	4.87	+0.13	74.33%	2	3	4	6	7	10
Cleveland Rams	West	1455	4	4.61	-0.61	57.89%	2	3	4	5	7	11
Pittsburgh Pirates	East	1438	2	4.99	-2.99	9.98%	2	3	5	6	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Pirates	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Rams	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.27%	6.36%	3.64%	0.91%	1.82%	0.91%	—	20.91%
7–13	6.36%	10.91%	8.18%	1.82%	3.64%	1.82%	—	32.73%
14–20	3.64%	8.18%	3.64%	3.64%	2.73%	—	—	21.82%
21–27	0.91%	1.82%	3.64%	5.45%	—	—	—	11.82%
28–34	1.82%	3.64%	2.73%	—	1.82%	—	—	10.00%
35–41	0.91%	1.82%	—	—	—	—	—	2.73%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.91%	32.73%	21.82%	11.82%	10.00%	2.73%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.49	13.49	+0.00
SD	9.61	9.61	13.51
CV	0.71	0.71	—
Max	37	37	+36
Min	0	0	-36

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	36.36%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.91	14.64	-2.73
SD	8.08	10.74	14.21
CV	0.68	0.73	—
Max	32	35	+18
Min	3	0	-28

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.64	13.45	+4.18
SD	10.92	8.65	11.95
CV	0.62	0.64	—
Max	34	28	+24
Min	2	0	-7

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	36.36%	—	—	—	—	—	45.45%
7–13	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.09	15.27	-5.18
SD	11.77	9.67	8.73
CV	1.17	0.63	—
Max	31	34	+14
Min	0	6	-21

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	27.27%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	27.27%	9.09%	—	100%

Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.91	19.55	-7.64
SD	7.79	11.33	12.56
CV	0.65	0.58	—
Max	23	37	+7
Min	0	6	-28

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
14–20	—	27.27%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	45.45%	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.82	9.82	+1.00
SD	4.69	9.27	10.32
CV	0.43	0.94	—
Max	17	28	+10
Min	5	0	-21

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	27.27%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	36.36%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.27	10.73	+9.55
SD	11.59	7.14	13.74
CV	0.57	0.67	—
Max	35	22	+28
Min	0	0	-12

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%	—	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.64	7.18	+10.45
SD	10.35	5.88	12.48
CV	0.59	0.82	—
Max	36	14	+36
Min	6	0	-4

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
21–27	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	45.45%	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.00	14.91	-0.91
SD	7.14	10.37	12.90
CV	0.51	0.70	—
Max	27	32	+20
Min	6	0	-22

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	—	18.18%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	54.55%
14–20	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	45.45%	18.18%	—	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.18	15.36	-8.18
SD	5.76	7.45	9.89
CV	0.80	0.48	—
Max	17	27	+14
Min	0	3	-20

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	18.18%
7–13	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
14–20	9.09%	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.45	14.00	-0.55
SD	10.80	11.88	16.66
CV	0.80	0.85	—
Max	37	36	+24
Min	0	0	-36

Games Played: 11

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	8.5	6.07	+2.43
2	Green Bay Packers	8	6.20	+1.80
3	Washington Redskins	7	6.10	+0.90
4	Detroit Lions	7	6.19	+0.81
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	5.5	4.99	+0.51

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	4.99	-2.99
2	Chicago Cardinals	2	4.93	-2.93
3	Cleveland Rams	4	4.61	-0.61
4	Chicago Bears	6	6.04	-0.04
5	Philadelphia Eagles	5	4.87	+0.13

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	6	Oct 9 – Nov 20	1 in 60
2	Green Bay Packers	5	Oct 16 – Nov 13	1 in 23
3	Cleveland Rams	3	Oct 2 – Oct 23	1 in 22
4	Chicago Bears	3	Sep 11 – Oct 2	1 in 7
5	Detroit Lions	3	Oct 23 – Nov 6	1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	8	Sep 25 – Nov 20	1 in 161
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	Oct 9 – Dec 4	1 in 55
3	Chicago Bears	3	Oct 23 – Nov 6	1 in 14
4	Cleveland Rams	4	Oct 30 – Nov 27	1 in 11
5	New York Giants	2	Sep 25 – Oct 3	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	31.36%	25.49%	18.45%	14.77%	9.93%
Washington Redskins	31.80%	24.80%	19.36%	14.17%	9.87%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.89%	16.55%	21.35%	23.61%	25.60%
Pittsburgh Pirates	12.90%	17.11%	20.44%	23.28%	26.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.05%	16.05%	20.40%	24.17%	28.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	28.63%	25.28%	20.84%	15.07%	10.18%
Green Bay Packers	28.87%	24.66%	20.48%	16.06%	9.93%
Chicago Bears	25.78%	23.91%	21.63%	16.85%	11.83%
Chicago Cardinals	9.78%	14.32%	19.30%	27.02%	29.58%
Cleveland Rams	6.94%	11.83%	17.75%	25.00%	38.48%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Detroit Lions	16.87%	14.08%	13.16%	12.00%	10.95%	8.82%	8.00%	6.63%	5.45%	4.04%
Green Bay Packers	16.85%	14.19%	13.24%	11.12%	10.95%	9.42%	8.24%	6.62%	5.48%	3.89%
Washington Redskins	14.90%	14.86%	12.59%	12.11%	10.40%	9.78%	7.65%	7.60%	5.26%	4.85%
New York Giants	14.35%	14.90%	12.93%	12.18%	10.06%	9.24%	8.64%	7.34%	5.60%	4.76%
Chicago Bears	14.71%	12.97%	12.77%	11.81%	10.90%	9.61%	8.66%	7.52%	6.54%	4.51%
Brooklyn Dodgers	5.30%	6.43%	7.35%	9.10%	9.60%	11.08%	11.58%	12.69%	13.10%	13.77%
Pittsburgh Pirates	5.00%	6.77%	7.54%	8.68%	9.53%	11.09%	11.28%	12.80%	13.05%	14.26%
Chicago Cardinals	4.80%	5.65%	7.13%	7.99%	9.82%	10.47%	12.32%	12.84%	14.21%	14.77%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.91%	5.87%	7.33%	8.33%	9.32%	10.84%	12.04%	12.78%	13.89%	15.69%
Cleveland Rams	3.31%	4.28%	5.96%	6.68%	8.47%	9.65%	11.59%	13.18%	17.42%	19.46%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	31.80%	68.20%
New York Giants	31.36%	68.64%
Pittsburgh Pirates	12.90%	87.10%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.89%	87.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.05%	88.95%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	28.87%	71.13%
Detroit Lions	28.63%	71.37%
Chicago Bears	25.78%	74.22%
Chicago Cardinals	9.78%	90.22%
Cleveland Rams	6.94%	93.06%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	31.36%	16.83%
Green Bay Packers	28.87%	16.64%
Detroit Lions	28.63%	15.65%
Washington Redskins	31.80%	15.52%
Chicago Bears	25.78%	14.05%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.89%	5.05%
Pittsburgh Pirates	12.90%	4.79%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.05%	4.69%
Chicago Cardinals	9.78%	4.06%
Cleveland Rams	6.94%	2.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Brooklyn Dodgers	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Rams	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Pirates	Washington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers		1.11%	0.56%	0.59%	1.73%	1.06%
Chicago Bears	1.86%						3.96%	1.53%	2.41%	4.29%
Chicago Cardinals	0.50%						1.02%	0.47%	0.70%	1.37%
Cleveland Rams	0.63%						0.52%	0.43%	0.32%	0.82%
Detroit Lions	2.71%						4.71%	1.89%	2.24%	4.10%
Green Bay Packers	2.14%						4.32%	2.04%	2.44%	5.70%
New York Giants		4.65%	1.94%	1.41%	4.81%	4.02%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.98%	0.54%	0.49%	1.23%	1.45%
Pittsburgh Pirates		1.28%	0.75%	0.45%	1.11%	1.20%
Washington Redskins		3.71%	1.93%	1.28%	4.10%	4.50%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	51.09%
New York Giants	48.91%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants
Green Bay Packers		51.09%
New York Giants	48.91%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 51.09% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.09%

New York Giants 48.91% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.91%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1938-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	T 16-16	1467.44	1518.41	37.42%	55.29%	+0.17	0-0
1938-09-23	Pittsburgh Pirates	L 3-17	1467.61	1457.90	49.52%	43.13%	-7.39	0-1
1938-10-02	Chicago Cardinals	W 13-0	1460.22	1480.17	45.27%	47.37%	+6.83	1-1
1938-10-09	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 17-7	1467.05	1469.01	44.23%	48.42%	+6.11	2-1
1938-10-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-35	1473.16	1541.31	35.14%	57.60%	-7.57	2-2
1938-10-23	@ New York Giants	L 14-28	1465.59	1513.67	37.81%	54.89%	-5.74	2-3
1938-10-30	Washington Redskins	T 6-6	1459.85	1528.56	38.44%	54.25%	+0.15	2-3
1938-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-7	1460.00	1455.75	45.12%	47.53%	+3.29	3-3
1938-11-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 32-14	1463.29	1452.46	49.68%	42.97%	+7.34	4-3
1938-11-20	Chicago Bears	L 6-24	1470.63	1545.00	37.67%	55.03%	-6.49	4-4
1938-11-24	New York Giants	T 7-7	1464.14	1537.88	37.76%	54.94%	+0.16	4-4
1938-09-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 16-13	1538.86	1490.24	54.96%	37.74%	+2.65	1-0
1938-09-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 2-0	1541.51	1541.05	44.58%	48.07%	+2.72	2-0
1938-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-6	1544.23	1466.20	55.53%	37.18%	+7.08	3-0
1938-10-09	@ Cleveland Rams	L 7-14	1551.31	1465.97	56.52%	36.20%	-5.92	3-1
1938-10-16	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-28	1545.39	1473.34	54.71%	37.98%	+3.77	4-1
1938-10-23	Cleveland Rams	L 21-23	1549.16	1471.89	58.80%	33.95%	-3.28	4-2
1938-10-30	Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1545.88	1543.47	48.48%	44.17%	-4.75	4-3
1938-11-06	Green Bay Packers	L 17-24	1541.13	1561.76	45.18%	47.47%	-4.79	4-4
1938-11-13	Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1536.34	1532.49	48.69%	43.96%	+8.66	5-4
1938-11-20	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 24-6	1545.00	1470.63	55.03%	37.67%	+6.48	6-4
1938-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-14	1551.48	1546.06	45.29%	47.36%	-4.80	6-5
1938-09-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1490.24	1538.86	37.74%	54.96%	-2.65	0-1
1938-09-17	@ Cleveland Rams	W 7-6	1487.59	1470.89	46.91%	45.74%	+1.83	1-1
1938-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1489.42	1538.33	37.70%	55.00%	-7.01	1-2
1938-09-28	Green Bay Packers	L 22-24	1482.41	1545.34	39.23%	53.45%	-2.24	1-3
1938-10-02	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-13	1480.17	1460.22	47.37%	45.27%	-6.83	1-4
1938-10-16	Chicago Bears	L 28-34	1473.34	1545.39	37.98%	54.71%	-3.78	1-5
1938-10-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-10	1469.56	1538.97	34.97%	57.77%	-4.50	1-6
1938-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-7	1465.06	1450.82	46.55%	46.09%	-4.93	1-7
1938-11-06	@ New York Giants	L 0-6	1460.13	1519.41	36.31%	56.41%	-3.62	1-8
1938-11-20	Detroit Lions	L 3-7	1456.51	1543.13	36.03%	56.69%	-2.93	1-9
1938-11-27	Cleveland Rams	W 31-17	1453.58	1457.10	47.63%	45.01%	+6.76	2-9
1938-09-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-26	1475.29	1536.65	36.03%	56.69%	-4.40	0-1
1938-09-17	Chicago Cardinals	L 6-7	1470.89	1487.59	45.74%	46.91%	-1.83	0-2
1938-09-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-37	1469.06	1518.25	37.66%	55.04%	-7.49	0-3
1938-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 21-17	1461.57	1539.96	37.13%	55.58%	+4.40	1-3
1938-10-09	Chicago Bears	W 14-7	1465.97	1551.31	36.20%	56.52%	+5.92	2-3
1938-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-21	1471.89	1549.16	33.95%	58.80%	+3.29	3-3
1938-10-30	Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1475.18	1554.88	36.95%	55.75%	-6.88	3-4
1938-11-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-6	1468.30	1548.21	33.61%	59.15%	-3.36	3-5
1938-11-13	@ New York Giants	L 0-28	1464.94	1523.03	36.46%	56.25%	-7.84	3-6
1938-11-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 17-31	1457.10	1453.58	45.01%	47.63%	-6.76	3-7
1938-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 13-7	1450.34	1442.58	45.62%	47.03%	+4.60	4-7
1938-09-09	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 16-7	1535.51	1477.55	56.23%	36.48%	+4.45	1-0
1938-10-02	@ Cleveland Rams	L 17-21	1539.96	1461.57	55.58%	37.13%	-4.41	1-1
1938-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-7	1535.55	1547.59	42.80%	49.85%	+6.28	2-1
1938-10-16	Washington Redskins	L 5-7	1541.83	1522.22	50.93%	41.73%	-2.86	2-2
1938-10-23	Chicago Cardinals	W 10-0	1538.97	1469.56	57.77%	34.97%	+4.50	3-2
1938-10-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1543.47	1545.88	44.17%	48.48%	+4.74	4-2
1938-11-06	Cleveland Rams	W 6-0	1548.21	1468.30	59.15%	33.61%	+3.37	5-2
1938-11-13	Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1551.58	1566.56	45.99%	46.66%	-8.45	5-3
1938-11-20	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 7-3	1543.13	1456.51	56.69%	36.03%	+2.93	6-3
1938-11-24	Chicago Bears	W 14-7	1546.06	1551.48	47.36%	45.29%	+4.81	7-3
1938-12-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-21	1550.87	1449.96	61.84%	30.98%	-9.13	7-4
1938-09-11	Cleveland Rams	W 26-17	1536.65	1475.29	56.69%	36.03%	+4.40	1-0
1938-09-18	Chicago Bears	L 0-2	1541.05	1541.51	48.07%	44.58%	-2.72	1-1
1938-09-25	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-7	1538.33	1489.42	55.00%	37.70%	+7.01	2-1
1938-09-28	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-22	1545.34	1482.41	53.45%	39.23%	+2.25	3-1
1938-10-09	Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1547.59	1535.55	49.85%	42.80%	-6.28	3-2
1938-10-16	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 35-7	1541.31	1473.16	57.60%	35.14%	+7.57	4-2
1938-10-23	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 20-0	1548.88	1462.90	59.94%	32.84%	+6.00	5-2
1938-10-30	@ Cleveland Rams	W 28-7	1554.88	1475.18	55.75%	36.95%	+6.88	6-2
1938-11-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1561.76	1541.13	47.47%	45.18%	+4.80	7-2
1938-11-13	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1566.56	1551.58	46.66%	45.99%	+8.44	8-2
1938-11-20	@ New York Giants	L 3-15	1575.00	1530.87	50.82%	41.84%	-7.01	8-3
1938-09-11	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 27-14	1506.90	1473.10	49.35%	43.30%	+6.28	1-0
1938-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-14	1513.18	1462.08	51.80%	40.87%	-4.12	1-1
1938-10-03	Pittsburgh Pirates	L 10-13	1509.06	1465.28	54.30%	38.39%	-3.73	1-2
1938-10-09	@ Washington Redskins	W 10-7	1505.33	1525.73	41.62%	51.04%	+3.52	2-2
1938-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-7	1508.85	1459.11	55.12%	37.58%	+4.82	3-2
1938-10-23	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 28-14	1513.67	1465.59	54.89%	37.81%	+5.74	4-2
1938-11-06	Chicago Cardinals	W 6-0	1519.41	1460.13	56.41%	36.31%	+3.62	5-2
1938-11-13	Cleveland Rams	W 28-0	1523.03	1464.94	56.25%	36.46%	+7.84	6-2
1938-11-20	Green Bay Packers	W 15-3	1530.87	1575.00	41.84%	50.82%	+7.01	7-2
1938-11-24	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	T 7-7	1537.88	1464.14	54.94%	37.76%	-0.16	7-2
1938-12-04	Washington Redskins	W 36-0	1537.72	1529.23	49.35%	43.30%	+10.45	8-2
1938-09-11	Washington Redskins	L 23-26	1455.94	1515.63	39.67%	53.00%	-2.78	0-1
1938-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 27-7	1453.16	1466.82	42.57%	50.09%	+8.92	1-1
1938-09-25	New York Giants	W 14-10	1462.08	1513.18	40.87%	51.80%	+4.12	2-1
1938-10-02	Chicago Bears	L 6-28	1466.20	1544.23	37.18%	55.53%	-7.09	2-2
1938-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 7-17	1459.11	1508.85	37.58%	55.12%	-4.82	2-3
1938-10-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1454.29	1525.08	34.79%	57.95%	-3.47	2-4
1938-10-26	Chicago Cardinals	W 7-0	1450.82	1465.06	46.09%	46.55%	+4.93	3-4
1938-11-06	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-10	1455.75	1460.00	47.53%	45.12%	-3.29	3-5
1938-11-13	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-32	1452.46	1463.29	42.97%	49.68%	-7.34	3-6
1938-11-20	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 14-7	1445.12	1452.81	47.03%	45.61%	+4.84	4-6
1938-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-7	1449.96	1550.87	30.98%	61.84%	+9.13	5-6
1938-09-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-16	1477.55	1535.51	36.48%	56.23%	-4.45	0-1
1938-09-11	New York Giants	L 14-27	1473.10	1506.90	43.30%	49.35%	-6.28	0-2
1938-09-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-27	1466.82	1453.16	50.09%	42.57%	-8.92	0-3
1938-09-23	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 17-3	1457.90	1467.61	43.13%	49.52%	+7.38	1-3
1938-10-03	@ New York Giants	W 13-10	1465.28	1509.06	38.39%	54.30%	+3.73	2-3
1938-10-09	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-17	1469.01	1467.05	48.42%	44.23%	-6.11	2-4
1938-10-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-20	1462.90	1548.88	32.84%	59.94%	-6.00	2-5
1938-11-06	Washington Redskins	L 0-7	1456.90	1528.41	38.06%	54.64%	-4.09	2-6
1938-11-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-14	1452.81	1445.12	45.61%	47.03%	-4.83	2-7
1938-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-15	1447.98	1523.83	34.13%	58.62%	-5.40	2-8
1938-12-04	Cleveland Rams	L 7-13	1442.58	1450.34	47.03%	45.62%	-4.60	2-9
1938-09-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-23	1515.63	1455.94	53.00%	39.67%	+2.78	1-0
1938-09-18	Brooklyn Dodgers	T 16-16	1518.41	1467.44	55.29%	37.42%	-0.16	1-0
1938-09-25	Cleveland Rams	W 37-13	1518.25	1469.06	55.04%	37.66%	+7.48	2-0
1938-10-09	New York Giants	L 7-10	1525.73	1505.33	51.04%	41.62%	-3.51	2-1
1938-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 7-5	1522.22	1541.83	41.73%	50.93%	+2.86	3-1
1938-10-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1525.08	1454.29	57.95%	34.79%	+3.48	4-1
1938-10-30	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	T 6-6	1528.56	1459.85	54.25%	38.44%	-0.15	4-1
1938-11-06	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 7-0	1528.41	1456.90	54.64%	38.06%	+4.08	5-1
1938-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-31	1532.49	1536.34	43.96%	48.69%	-8.66	5-2
1938-11-27	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 15-0	1523.83	1447.98	58.62%	34.13%	+5.40	6-2
1938-12-04	@ New York Giants	L 0-36	1529.23	1537.72	43.30%	49.35%	-10.46	6-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1938-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 17-23	1567.99	1548.17	51.03%	48.97%	-4.63	0-1
1938-12-11	Green Bay Packers	W 23-17	1548.17	1567.99	48.97%	51.03%	+4.64	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1938-12-04	30.98%	Philadelphia Eagles	1449.96	21	@ Detroit Lions	1550.87	7
2	1938-10-23	33.95%	Cleveland Rams	1471.89	23	@ Chicago Bears	1549.16	21
3	1938-10-09	36.20%	@ Cleveland Rams	1465.97	14	Chicago Bears	1551.31	7
4	1938-10-02	37.13%	@ Cleveland Rams	1461.57	21	Detroit Lions	1539.96	17
5	1938-10-03	38.39%	Pittsburgh Pirates	1465.28	13	@ New York Giants	1509.06	10
6	1938-09-25	40.87%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1462.08	14	New York Giants	1513.18	10
7	1938-10-09	41.62%	New York Giants	1505.33	10	@ Washington Redskins	1525.73	7
8	1938-10-16	41.73%	Washington Redskins	1522.22	7	@ Detroit Lions	1541.83	5
9	1938-11-20	41.84%	@ New York Giants	1530.87	15	Green Bay Packers	1575.00	3
10	1938-09-16	42.57%	Philadelphia Eagles	1453.16	27	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1466.82	7
11	1938-10-09	42.80%	Detroit Lions	1535.55	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1547.59	7
12	1938-09-23	43.13%	Pittsburgh Pirates	1457.90	17	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1467.61	3
13	1938-10-30	44.17%	Detroit Lions	1543.47	13	@ Chicago Bears	1545.88	7
14	1938-10-09	44.23%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1467.05	17	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1469.01	7
15	1938-09-18	44.58%	Chicago Bears	1541.51	2	@ Green Bay Packers	1541.05	0
16	1938-11-06	45.12%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1460.00	10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1455.75	7
17	1938-10-02	45.27%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1460.22	13	Chicago Cardinals	1480.17	0
18	1938-12-04	45.62%	Cleveland Rams	1450.34	13	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1442.58	7
19	1938-10-26	46.09%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1450.82	7	Chicago Cardinals	1465.06	0
20	1938-12-11 *	48.97%	@ New York Giants	1548.17	23	Green Bay Packers	1567.99	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1938-12-04	10.46	@ New York Giants	36	1537.72	49.35%	Washington Redskins	0	1529.23	43.30%
2	1938-12-04	9.13	Philadelphia Eagles	21	1449.96	30.98%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1550.87	61.84%
3	1938-09-16	8.92	Philadelphia Eagles	27	1453.16	42.57%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	7	1466.82	50.09%
4	1938-11-13	8.66	@ Chicago Bears	31	1536.34	48.69%	Washington Redskins	7	1532.49	43.96%
5	1938-11-13	8.45	Green Bay Packers	28	1566.56	46.66%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1551.58	45.99%
6	1938-11-13	7.84	@ New York Giants	28	1523.03	56.25%	Cleveland Rams	0	1464.94	36.46%
7	1938-10-16	7.57	@ Green Bay Packers	35	1541.31	57.60%	Brooklyn Dodgers	7	1473.16	35.14%
8	1938-09-25	7.49	@ Washington Redskins	37	1518.25	55.04%	Cleveland Rams	13	1469.06	37.66%
9	1938-09-23	7.39	Pittsburgh Pirates	17	1457.90	43.13%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	3	1467.61	49.52%
10	1938-11-13	7.34	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	32	1463.29	49.68%	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1452.46	42.97%
11	1938-10-02	7.09	Chicago Bears	28	1544.23	55.53%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	6	1466.20	37.18%
12	1938-11-20	7.01	@ New York Giants	15	1530.87	41.84%	Green Bay Packers	3	1575.00	50.82%
13	1938-09-25	7.01	@ Green Bay Packers	28	1538.33	55.00%	Chicago Cardinals	7	1489.42	37.70%
14	1938-10-30	6.88	Green Bay Packers	28	1554.88	55.75%	@ Cleveland Rams	7	1475.18	36.95%
15	1938-10-02	6.83	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	13	1460.22	45.27%	Chicago Cardinals	0	1480.17	47.37%
16	1938-11-27	6.76	@ Chicago Cardinals	31	1453.58	47.63%	Cleveland Rams	17	1457.10	45.01%
17	1938-11-20	6.49	Chicago Bears	24	1545.00	55.03%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	6	1470.63	37.67%
18	1938-09-11	6.28	New York Giants	27	1506.90	49.35%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	14	1473.10	43.30%
19	1938-10-09	6.28	Detroit Lions	17	1535.55	42.80%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1547.59	49.85%
20	1938-10-09	6.11	Brooklyn Dodgers	17	1467.05	44.23%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	7	1469.01	48.42%
21	1938-10-23	6.00	@ Green Bay Packers	20	1548.88	59.94%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1462.90	32.84%
22	1938-10-09	5.92	@ Cleveland Rams	14	1465.97	36.20%	Chicago Bears	7	1551.31	56.52%
23	1938-10-23	5.74	@ New York Giants	28	1513.67	54.89%	Brooklyn Dodgers	14	1465.59	37.81%
24	1938-11-27	5.40	@ Washington Redskins	15	1523.83	58.62%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1447.98	34.13%
25	1938-10-26	4.93	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1450.82	46.09%	Chicago Cardinals	0	1465.06	46.55%