1937 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Washington Redskins

1st Title

Runner-Up

Chicago Bears

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1934

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

3.15 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.35 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cleveland Rams

3.93 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.93 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	8	3	0	.727	—	195	120	+75	5.87	+2.13
2	New York Giants	6	3	2	.636	1	128	109	+19	5.80	+1.20
3	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	7	0	.364	4	122	145	-23	5.18	-1.18
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	7	1	.318	4.5	82	174	-92	4.91	-1.41
5	Philadelphia Eagles	2	8	1	.227	5.5	86	177	-91	4.63	-2.13

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	9	1	1	.864	—	201	100	+101	6.35	+3.15
2	Detroit Lions	7	4	0	.636	2.5	180	105	+75	6.11	+0.89
3	Green Bay Packers	7	4	0	.636	2.5	220	122	+98	6.15	+0.85
4	Chicago Cardinals	5	5	1	.500	4	135	165	-30	5.06	+0.44
5	Cleveland Rams	1	10	0	.091	8.5	75	207	-132	4.93	-3.93

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Washington Redskins 28

Chicago Bears 21

Dec 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1583	9.5	6.35	+3.15	98.97%	3	5	6	7	9	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1561	7	6.15	+0.85	85.31%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Detroit Lions	West	1560	7	6.11	+0.89	86.47%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Washington Redskins	East	1524	8	5.87	+2.13	96.71%	3	4	5	7	8	11
New York Giants	East	1513	7	5.80	+1.20	89.91%	3	4	5	6	8	11
Chicago Cardinals	West	1484	5.5	5.06	+0.44	70.53%	2	4	5	6	7	10
Pittsburgh Pirates	East	1457	4	5.18	-1.18	44.85%	2	4	5	6	7	11
Cleveland Rams	West	1452	1	4.93	-3.93	2.43%	2	3	4	6	7	10
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1446	3.5	4.91	-1.41	26.62%	2	3	4	6	7	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1420	2.5	4.63	-2.13	14.17%	2	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
New York Giants	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Washington Redskins	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Chicago Cardinals	—	—	0-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Green Bay Packers	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.45%	4.55%	5.45%	6.36%	1.82%	—	—	23.64%
7–13	4.55%	14.55%	9.09%	1.82%	1.82%	2.73%	—	34.55%
14–20	5.45%	9.09%	—	2.73%	1.82%	—	0.91%	20.00%
21–27	6.36%	1.82%	2.73%	—	—	—	—	10.91%
28–34	1.82%	1.82%	1.82%	—	—	—	0.91%	6.36%
35–41	—	2.73%	—	—	—	—	—	2.73%
42+	—	—	0.91%	—	0.91%	—	—	1.82%
Total	23.64%	34.55%	20.00%	10.91%	6.36%	2.73%	1.82%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.95	12.95	+0.00
SD	10.24	10.24	15.41
CV	0.79	0.79	—
Max	49	49	+35
Min	0	0	-35

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
7–13	—	36.36%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	54.55%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	36.36%	9.09%	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.45	15.82	-8.36
SD	7.31	9.46	15.93
CV	0.98	0.60	—
Max	23	30	+23
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	18.18%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
Total	45.45%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.27	9.09	+9.18
SD	11.03	10.07	8.65
CV	0.60	1.11	—
Max	42	28	+22
Min	3	0	-10

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	18.18%	27.27%	—	9.09%	—	—	54.55%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	36.36%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.27	15.00	-2.73
SD	7.00	12.62	10.02
CV	0.57	0.84	—
Max	28	42	+7
Min	6	0	-21

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
7–13	—	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	—	18.18%	—	63.64%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	18.18%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	—	100%

Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	6.82	18.82	-12.00
SD	5.72	11.15	13.70
CV	0.84	0.59	—
Max	21	35	+18
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
21–27	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.36	9.55	+6.82
SD	9.60	9.89	16.35
CV	0.59	1.04	—
Max	30	28	+30
Min	0	0	-20

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	27.27%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	54.55%	36.36%	—	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	11.09	+8.91
SD	14.53	3.21	16.54
CV	0.73	0.29	—
Max	37	14	+30
Min	0	6	-12

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	27.27%
21–27	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.45%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.64	9.91	+1.73
SD	7.21	14.33	17.15
CV	0.62	1.45	—
Max	21	49	+21
Min	0	0	-35

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	—	18.18%	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	45.45%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	27.27%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.82	16.09	-8.27
SD	4.53	10.24	12.25
CV	0.58	0.64	—
Max	14	37	+14
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
7–13	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
21–27	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	54.55%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.09	13.18	-2.09
SD	10.10	9.18	13.53
CV	0.91	0.70	—
Max	27	34	+21
Min	0	0	-23

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.73	10.91	+6.82
SD	13.22	7.46	13.89
CV	0.75	0.68	—
Max	49	21	+35
Min	0	0	-14

Games Played: 11

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	9.5	6.35	+3.15
2	Washington Redskins	8	5.87	+2.13
3	New York Giants	7	5.80	+1.20
4	Detroit Lions	7	6.11	+0.89
5	Green Bay Packers	7	6.15	+0.85

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Rams	1	4.93	-3.93
2	Philadelphia Eagles	2.5	4.63	-2.13
3	Brooklyn Dodgers	3.5	4.91	-1.41
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	5.18	-1.18
5	Chicago Cardinals	5.5	5.06	+0.44

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	7	Oct 3 – Nov 14	1 in 104
2	Chicago Bears	5	Sep 19 – Oct 24	1 in 26
3	New York Giants	4	Sep 26 – Oct 24	1 in 12
4	Washington Redskins	3	Oct 17 – Oct 31	1 in 7
5	Detroit Lions	3	Nov 7 – Nov 21	1 in 6

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Rams	9	Sep 26 – Nov 28	1 in 336
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	6	Oct 3 – Nov 14	1 in 46
3	Pittsburgh Pirates	5	Sep 26 – Oct 24	1 in 27
4	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Sep 5 – Sep 21	1 in 8
5	Green Bay Packers	2	Sep 12 – Sep 19	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	30.10%	24.07%	20.06%	14.52%	11.25%
New York Giants	28.70%	23.87%	19.30%	16.44%	11.69%
Pittsburgh Pirates	17.02%	20.02%	20.79%	21.94%	20.23%
Brooklyn Dodgers	13.34%	17.55%	20.69%	23.22%	25.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.84%	14.49%	19.16%	23.88%	31.63%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	30.08%	24.30%	20.74%	14.97%	9.91%
Green Bay Packers	26.40%	23.54%	20.89%	16.58%	12.59%
Detroit Lions	24.87%	23.72%	20.39%	18.01%	13.01%
Chicago Cardinals	9.58%	15.63%	18.96%	25.24%	30.59%
Cleveland Rams	9.07%	12.81%	19.02%	25.20%	33.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	19.21%	15.28%	13.97%	10.79%	10.67%	8.70%	7.43%	5.91%	4.70%	3.34%
Green Bay Packers	17.44%	13.15%	12.84%	10.90%	11.20%	9.03%	8.53%	6.84%	5.70%	4.37%
Detroit Lions	16.34%	13.29%	12.75%	10.85%	10.40%	9.30%	8.82%	7.63%	6.50%	4.12%
Washington Redskins	12.03%	13.30%	11.90%	11.96%	10.48%	10.71%	8.80%	7.55%	6.97%	6.30%
New York Giants	11.84%	12.92%	11.23%	12.15%	9.87%	10.47%	9.34%	8.32%	7.64%	6.22%
Pittsburgh Pirates	5.85%	8.22%	8.90%	10.13%	9.61%	10.88%	10.77%	12.01%	11.97%	11.66%
Chicago Cardinals	5.33%	6.25%	8.40%	8.68%	10.07%	9.90%	11.95%	12.31%	13.62%	13.49%
Brooklyn Dodgers	4.06%	6.57%	6.88%	9.11%	9.50%	10.99%	11.20%	13.67%	13.14%	14.88%
Cleveland Rams	4.86%	5.79%	7.22%	7.33%	10.28%	9.96%	12.11%	12.64%	14.66%	15.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.04%	5.23%	5.91%	8.10%	7.92%	10.06%	11.05%	13.12%	15.10%	20.47%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	30.10%	69.90%
New York Giants	28.70%	71.30%
Pittsburgh Pirates	17.02%	82.98%
Brooklyn Dodgers	13.34%	86.66%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.84%	89.16%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	30.08%	69.92%
Green Bay Packers	26.40%	73.60%
Detroit Lions	24.87%	75.13%
Chicago Cardinals	9.58%	90.42%
Cleveland Rams	9.07%	90.93%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	30.08%	19.15%
Green Bay Packers	26.40%	15.58%
Detroit Lions	24.87%	14.78%
Washington Redskins	30.10%	13.90%
New York Giants	28.70%	13.22%
Pittsburgh Pirates	17.02%	6.41%
Brooklyn Dodgers	13.34%	4.84%
Chicago Cardinals	9.58%	4.61%
Cleveland Rams	9.07%	4.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.84%	3.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Brooklyn Dodgers	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Rams	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Pirates	Washington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers		1.11%	0.85%	0.57%	0.88%	1.43%
Chicago Bears	2.34%						4.62%	2.77%	3.35%	6.07%
Chicago Cardinals	0.89%						1.27%	0.44%	0.81%	1.20%
Cleveland Rams	0.51%						1.46%	0.41%	0.77%	0.99%
Detroit Lions	2.19%						3.90%	2.08%	2.48%	4.13%
Green Bay Packers	2.57%						4.23%	1.77%	3.20%	3.81%
New York Giants		3.31%	1.71%	1.85%	3.00%	3.35%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.94%	0.40%	0.29%	1.01%	0.73%
Pittsburgh Pirates		1.47%	0.63%	0.88%	1.48%	1.95%
Washington Redskins		4.10%	1.38%	1.34%	3.72%	3.36%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	57.63%
Washington Redskins	42.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		57.63%
Washington Redskins	42.37%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 57.63% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.63%

Washington Redskins 42.37% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.37%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1937-09-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-7	1471.40	1442.00	50.34%	41.96%	+3.93	1-0
1937-09-19	Pittsburgh Pirates	L 0-21	1475.33	1473.34	46.43%	45.86%	-8.08	1-1
1937-09-26	Cleveland Rams	W 9-7	1467.25	1498.13	41.75%	50.55%	+2.70	2-1
1937-10-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-11	1469.95	1497.47	42.22%	50.08%	-3.23	2-2
1937-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-30	1466.72	1548.94	34.79%	57.61%	-7.38	2-3
1937-10-24	@ New York Giants	L 0-21	1459.34	1511.19	38.84%	53.49%	-6.85	2-4
1937-10-31	Washington Redskins	L 0-21	1452.49	1501.39	39.25%	53.08%	-6.92	2-5
1937-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-14	1445.57	1421.96	49.52%	42.77%	-3.75	2-6
1937-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-29	1441.82	1563.01	29.92%	62.61%	-5.47	2-7
1937-11-21	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 23-0	1436.35	1466.00	41.92%	50.38%	+9.13	3-7
1937-11-25	New York Giants	T 13-13	1445.48	1524.19	35.25%	57.14%	+0.20	3-7
1937-09-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-2	1543.96	1536.26	47.25%	45.04%	+5.95	1-0
1937-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 7-0	1549.91	1478.53	56.16%	36.21%	+3.70	2-0
1937-10-10	@ Cleveland Rams	W 20-2	1553.61	1491.08	54.96%	37.39%	+6.12	3-0
1937-10-17	Chicago Cardinals	W 16-7	1559.73	1488.76	56.10%	36.27%	+4.20	4-0
1937-10-24	Detroit Lions	W 28-20	1563.93	1556.32	47.24%	45.05%	+4.86	5-0
1937-10-31	@ New York Giants	T 3-3	1568.79	1518.04	53.34%	38.99%	-0.13	5-0
1937-11-07	Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1568.66	1562.03	47.10%	45.19%	-5.65	5-1
1937-11-14	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 29-7	1563.01	1441.82	62.61%	29.92%	+5.47	6-1
1937-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-0	1568.48	1566.56	46.42%	45.87%	+6.29	7-1
1937-11-28	Cleveland Rams	W 15-7	1574.77	1455.70	62.35%	30.17%	+3.33	8-1
1937-12-05	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 42-28	1578.10	1488.48	58.59%	33.83%	+4.91	9-1
1937-09-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1485.77	1541.64	38.29%	54.04%	+5.38	1-0
1937-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-16	1491.15	1550.15	37.87%	54.47%	-4.38	1-1
1937-09-24	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1486.77	1502.33	43.92%	48.37%	+4.85	2-1
1937-09-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 6-6	1491.62	1431.76	54.59%	37.75%	-0.15	2-1
1937-10-03	@ Cleveland Rams	W 6-0	1491.47	1495.43	45.57%	46.71%	+4.35	3-1
1937-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-34	1495.82	1538.71	40.08%	52.24%	-7.06	3-2
1937-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-16	1488.76	1559.73	36.27%	56.10%	-4.20	3-3
1937-10-24	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 13-7	1484.56	1465.85	48.82%	43.47%	+4.07	4-3
1937-10-31	Cleveland Rams	W 13-7	1488.63	1470.40	48.76%	43.54%	+4.07	5-3
1937-11-21	Detroit Lions	L 7-16	1492.70	1562.33	36.44%	55.92%	-4.22	5-4
1937-12-05	Chicago Bears	L 28-42	1488.48	1578.10	33.83%	58.59%	-4.91	5-5
1937-09-10	Detroit Lions	L 0-28	1500.00	1541.98	40.20%	52.11%	-8.17	0-1
1937-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-3	1491.83	1438.06	53.75%	38.58%	+6.30	1-1
1937-09-26	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-9	1498.13	1467.25	50.55%	41.75%	-2.70	1-2
1937-10-03	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-6	1495.43	1491.47	46.71%	45.57%	-4.35	1-3
1937-10-10	Chicago Bears	L 2-20	1491.08	1553.61	37.39%	54.96%	-6.12	1-4
1937-10-17	Green Bay Packers	L 10-35	1484.96	1545.76	37.63%	54.72%	-7.25	1-5
1937-10-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-35	1477.71	1553.02	35.69%	56.69%	-7.31	1-6
1937-10-31	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-13	1470.40	1488.63	43.54%	48.76%	-4.07	1-7
1937-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-27	1466.33	1549.75	34.63%	57.77%	-6.00	1-8
1937-11-21	Washington Redskins	L 7-16	1460.33	1502.66	40.15%	52.16%	-4.63	1-9
1937-11-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-15	1455.70	1574.77	30.17%	62.35%	-3.32	1-10
1937-09-10	@ Cleveland Rams	W 28-0	1541.98	1500.00	52.11%	40.20%	+8.17	1-0
1937-09-19	Chicago Cardinals	W 16-7	1550.15	1491.15	54.47%	37.87%	+4.38	2-0
1937-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-26	1554.53	1530.31	49.61%	42.69%	-8.39	2-1
1937-10-10	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 7-3	1546.14	1474.83	56.15%	36.22%	+2.80	3-1
1937-10-17	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 30-0	1548.94	1466.72	57.61%	34.79%	+7.38	4-1
1937-10-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-28	1556.32	1563.93	45.05%	47.24%	-4.86	4-2
1937-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 13-14	1551.46	1560.32	44.87%	47.42%	-1.71	4-3
1937-11-07	Cleveland Rams	W 27-7	1549.75	1466.33	57.77%	34.63%	+6.00	5-3
1937-11-14	@ New York Giants	W 17-0	1555.75	1524.34	50.63%	41.67%	+6.58	6-3
1937-11-21	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 16-7	1562.33	1492.70	55.92%	36.44%	+4.23	7-3
1937-11-25	Chicago Bears	L 0-13	1566.56	1568.48	45.87%	46.42%	-6.30	7-4
1937-09-12	Chicago Cardinals	L 7-14	1541.64	1485.77	54.04%	38.29%	-5.38	0-1
1937-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 2-14	1536.26	1543.96	45.04%	47.25%	-5.95	0-2
1937-10-03	Detroit Lions	W 26-6	1530.31	1554.53	42.69%	49.61%	+8.40	1-2
1937-10-10	Chicago Cardinals	W 34-13	1538.71	1495.82	52.24%	40.08%	+7.05	2-2
1937-10-17	@ Cleveland Rams	W 35-10	1545.76	1484.96	54.72%	37.63%	+7.26	3-2
1937-10-24	Cleveland Rams	W 35-7	1553.02	1477.71	56.69%	35.69%	+7.30	4-2
1937-10-31	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-13	1560.32	1551.46	47.42%	44.87%	+1.71	5-2
1937-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1562.03	1568.66	45.19%	47.10%	+5.66	6-2
1937-11-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-7	1567.69	1425.71	65.12%	27.49%	+5.89	7-2
1937-11-21	@ New York Giants	L 0-10	1573.58	1517.75	54.04%	38.30%	-6.44	7-3
1937-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1567.14	1507.29	54.59%	37.75%	-5.81	7-4
1937-09-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-13	1503.25	1496.67	47.09%	45.20%	-5.66	0-1
1937-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 10-7	1497.59	1481.43	48.46%	43.83%	+2.90	1-1
1937-10-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-7	1500.49	1431.91	55.78%	36.58%	+4.24	2-1
1937-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-0	1504.73	1435.60	55.86%	36.51%	+6.46	3-1
1937-10-24	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-0	1511.19	1459.34	53.49%	38.84%	+6.85	4-1
1937-10-31	Chicago Bears	T 3-3	1518.04	1568.79	38.99%	53.34%	+0.13	4-1
1937-11-07	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 17-0	1518.17	1466.52	53.46%	38.87%	+6.17	5-1
1937-11-14	Detroit Lions	L 0-17	1524.34	1555.75	41.67%	50.63%	-6.59	5-2
1937-11-21	Green Bay Packers	W 10-0	1517.75	1573.58	38.30%	54.04%	+6.44	6-2
1937-11-25	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	T 13-13	1524.19	1445.48	57.14%	35.25%	-0.20	6-2
1937-12-05	Washington Redskins	L 14-49	1523.99	1513.10	47.71%	44.58%	-10.70	6-3
1937-09-05	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 14-27	1447.97	1467.36	43.37%	48.92%	-5.97	0-1
1937-09-10	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-13	1442.00	1471.40	41.96%	50.34%	-3.94	0-2
1937-09-21	Cleveland Rams	L 3-21	1438.06	1491.83	38.58%	53.75%	-6.30	0-3
1937-09-26	Chicago Cardinals	T 6-6	1431.76	1491.62	37.75%	54.59%	+0.15	0-3
1937-10-03	New York Giants	L 7-16	1431.91	1500.49	36.58%	55.78%	-4.24	0-4
1937-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-0	1427.67	1500.71	35.99%	56.38%	+7.93	1-4
1937-10-17	@ New York Giants	L 0-21	1435.60	1504.73	36.51%	55.86%	-6.47	1-5
1937-10-24	Washington Redskins	L 7-10	1429.13	1498.95	36.42%	55.95%	-2.43	1-6
1937-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 7-16	1426.70	1461.78	41.16%	51.15%	-4.74	1-7
1937-11-07	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 14-10	1421.96	1445.57	42.77%	49.52%	+3.75	2-7
1937-11-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-37	1425.71	1567.69	27.49%	65.12%	-5.89	2-8
1937-09-05	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-14	1467.36	1447.97	48.92%	43.37%	+5.98	1-0
1937-09-19	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-0	1473.34	1475.33	45.86%	46.43%	+8.09	2-0
1937-09-26	New York Giants	L 7-10	1481.43	1497.59	43.83%	48.46%	-2.90	2-1
1937-10-04	Chicago Bears	L 0-7	1478.53	1549.91	36.21%	56.16%	-3.70	2-2
1937-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-7	1474.83	1546.14	36.22%	56.15%	-2.80	2-3
1937-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-34	1472.03	1492.78	43.18%	49.12%	-6.18	2-4
1937-10-24	Chicago Cardinals	L 7-13	1465.85	1484.56	43.47%	48.82%	-4.07	2-5
1937-10-31	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-7	1461.78	1426.70	51.15%	41.16%	+4.74	3-5
1937-11-07	@ New York Giants	L 0-17	1466.52	1518.17	38.87%	53.46%	-6.17	3-6
1937-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 21-13	1460.35	1508.31	39.38%	52.95%	+5.65	4-6
1937-11-21	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-23	1466.00	1436.35	50.38%	41.92%	-9.14	4-7
1937-09-16	New York Giants	W 13-3	1496.67	1503.25	45.20%	47.09%	+5.66	1-0
1937-09-24	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-21	1502.33	1486.77	48.37%	43.92%	-4.86	1-1
1937-10-03	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 11-7	1497.47	1469.95	50.08%	42.22%	+3.24	2-1
1937-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-14	1500.71	1427.67	56.38%	35.99%	-7.93	2-2
1937-10-17	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 34-20	1492.78	1472.03	49.12%	43.18%	+6.17	3-2
1937-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-7	1498.95	1429.13	55.95%	36.42%	+2.44	4-2
1937-10-31	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-0	1501.39	1452.49	53.08%	39.25%	+6.92	5-2
1937-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 13-21	1508.31	1460.35	52.95%	39.38%	-5.65	5-3
1937-11-21	@ Cleveland Rams	W 16-7	1502.66	1460.33	52.16%	40.15%	+4.63	6-3
1937-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 14-6	1507.29	1567.14	37.75%	54.59%	+5.81	7-3
1937-12-05	@ New York Giants	W 49-14	1513.10	1523.99	44.58%	47.71%	+10.71	8-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1937-12-12	Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1583.01	1523.81	58.44%	41.56%	-5.43	0-1
1937-12-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1523.81	1583.01	41.56%	58.44%	+5.43	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1937-10-10	35.99%	Philadelphia Eagles	1427.67	14	@ Washington Redskins	1500.71	0
2	1937-11-28	37.75%	@ Washington Redskins	1507.29	14	Green Bay Packers	1567.14	6
3	1937-09-12	38.29%	Chicago Cardinals	1485.77	14	@ Green Bay Packers	1541.64	7
4	1937-11-21	38.30%	@ New York Giants	1517.75	10	Green Bay Packers	1573.58	0
5	1937-11-14	39.38%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1460.35	21	Washington Redskins	1508.31	13
6	1937-12-12 *	41.56%	Washington Redskins	1523.81	28	@ Chicago Bears	1583.01	21
7	1937-09-26	41.75%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1467.25	9	Cleveland Rams	1498.13	7
8	1937-11-21	41.92%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1436.35	23	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1466.00	0
9	1937-10-03	42.69%	@ Green Bay Packers	1530.31	26	Detroit Lions	1554.53	6
10	1937-11-07	42.77%	Philadelphia Eagles	1421.96	14	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1445.57	10
11	1937-09-24	43.92%	Chicago Cardinals	1486.77	21	@ Washington Redskins	1502.33	14
12	1937-12-05	44.58%	Washington Redskins	1513.10	49	@ New York Giants	1523.99	14
13	1937-11-07	45.19%	Green Bay Packers	1562.03	24	@ Chicago Bears	1568.66	14
14	1937-09-16	45.20%	@ Washington Redskins	1496.67	13	New York Giants	1503.25	3
15	1937-10-03	45.57%	Chicago Cardinals	1491.47	6	@ Cleveland Rams	1495.43	0
16	1937-09-19	45.86%	Pittsburgh Pirates	1473.34	21	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1475.33	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1937-12-05	10.71	Washington Redskins	49	1513.10	44.58%	@ New York Giants	14	1523.99	47.71%
2	1937-11-21	9.14	Brooklyn Dodgers	23	1436.35	41.92%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1466.00	50.38%
3	1937-10-03	8.40	@ Green Bay Packers	26	1530.31	42.69%	Detroit Lions	6	1554.53	49.61%
4	1937-09-10	8.17	Detroit Lions	28	1541.98	52.11%	@ Cleveland Rams	0	1500.00	40.20%
5	1937-09-19	8.09	Pittsburgh Pirates	21	1473.34	45.86%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1475.33	46.43%
6	1937-10-10	7.93	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1427.67	35.99%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1500.71	56.38%
7	1937-10-17	7.38	@ Detroit Lions	30	1548.94	57.61%	Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1466.72	34.79%
8	1937-10-24	7.31	@ Green Bay Packers	35	1553.02	56.69%	Cleveland Rams	7	1477.71	35.69%
9	1937-10-17	7.26	Green Bay Packers	35	1545.76	54.72%	@ Cleveland Rams	10	1484.96	37.63%
10	1937-10-10	7.06	@ Green Bay Packers	34	1538.71	52.24%	Chicago Cardinals	13	1495.82	40.08%
11	1937-10-31	6.92	Washington Redskins	21	1501.39	53.08%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1452.49	39.25%
12	1937-10-24	6.85	@ New York Giants	21	1511.19	53.49%	Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1459.34	38.84%
13	1937-11-14	6.59	Detroit Lions	17	1555.75	50.63%	@ New York Giants	0	1524.34	41.67%
14	1937-10-17	6.47	@ New York Giants	21	1504.73	55.86%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1435.60	36.51%
15	1937-11-21	6.44	@ New York Giants	10	1517.75	38.30%	Green Bay Packers	0	1573.58	54.04%
16	1937-09-21	6.30	Cleveland Rams	21	1491.83	53.75%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	3	1438.06	38.58%
17	1937-11-25	6.30	Chicago Bears	13	1568.48	46.42%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1566.56	45.87%
18	1937-10-17	6.18	@ Washington Redskins	34	1492.78	49.12%	Pittsburgh Pirates	20	1472.03	43.18%
19	1937-11-07	6.17	@ New York Giants	17	1518.17	53.46%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1466.52	38.87%
20	1937-10-10	6.12	Chicago Bears	20	1553.61	54.96%	@ Cleveland Rams	2	1491.08	37.39%
21	1937-11-07	6.00	@ Detroit Lions	27	1549.75	57.77%	Cleveland Rams	7	1466.33	34.63%
22	1937-09-05	5.98	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	27	1467.36	48.92%	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1447.97	43.37%
23	1937-09-19	5.95	Chicago Bears	14	1543.96	47.25%	@ Green Bay Packers	2	1536.26	45.04%
24	1937-11-14	5.89	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1567.69	65.12%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1425.71	27.49%
25	1937-11-28	5.81	@ Washington Redskins	14	1507.29	37.75%	Green Bay Packers	6	1567.14	54.59%