1934 NFL Season

60 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New York Giants

2nd Title

Runner-Up

Chicago Bears

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1933

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

5.94 wins above expected

13 wins · 7.06 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cincinnati Reds

3.92 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.92 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	8	5	.615	—	147	107	+40	6.77	+1.23
2	Boston Redskins	6	6	.500	1.5	107	94	+13	6.03	-0.03
3	Philadelphia Eagles	4	7	.364	3	127	85	+42	5.36	-1.36
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	7	.364	3	61	153	-92	5.51	-1.51
5	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	10	.167	5.5	51	206	-155	5.57	-3.57

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	13	0	1.000	—	286	86	+200	7.06	+5.94
2	Detroit Lions	10	3	.769	3	238	59	+179	7.06	+2.94
3	Green Bay Packers	7	6	.538	6	156	112	+44	6.63	+0.37
4	Chicago Cardinals	5	6	.455	7	80	84	-4	5.09	-0.09
5	Cincinnati Reds	1	10	.091	11	37	304	-267	4.92	-3.92

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

New York Giants 30

Chicago Bears 13

Dec 9

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1566	13	7.06	+5.94	100.00%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Detroit Lions	West	1543	10	7.06	+2.94	97.65%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
New York Giants	East	1526	8	6.77	+1.23	84.56%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Green Bay Packers	West	1510	7	6.63	+0.37	69.10%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Boston Redskins	East	1503	6	6.03	-0.03	62.23%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Chicago Cardinals	West	1493	5	5.09	-0.09	61.50%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1492	4	5.36	-1.36	31.61%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1480	4	5.51	-1.51	28.46%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
Pittsburgh Pirates	East	1448	2	5.57	-3.57	3.63%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Cincinnati Reds	West	1440	1	4.92	-3.92	1.65%	0	2	4	5	6	8	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Redskins	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates
Boston Redskins	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Reds	Lions	Packers
Boston Redskins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
New York Giants	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Reds	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)
Cincinnati Reds	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Redskins	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—
Cincinnati Reds	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	13.33%	10.00%	8.33%	5.00%	1.67%	2.50%	0.83%	41.67%
7–13	10.00%	6.67%	4.17%	2.50%	—	2.50%	—	25.83%
14–20	8.33%	4.17%	1.67%	1.67%	—	—	—	15.83%
21–27	5.00%	2.50%	1.67%	—	—	—	—	9.17%
28–34	1.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.67%
35–41	2.50%	2.50%	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%
42+	0.83%	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.83%
Total	41.67%	25.83%	15.83%	9.17%	1.67%	5.00%	0.83%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.75	10.75	+0.00
SD	11.50	11.50	18.95
CV	1.07	1.07	—
Max	64	64	+64
Min	0	0	-64

Games Played: 60

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	16.67%	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	50.00%
7–13	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	25.00%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Boston Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	8.92	7.83	+1.08
SD	10.88	8.55	16.44
CV	1.22	1.09	—
Max	39	24	+39
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	54.55%
7–13	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	5.55	13.91	-8.36
SD	6.79	9.46	15.15
CV	1.22	0.68	—
Max	21	28	+18
Min	0	0	-28

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	15.38%	—	—	—	—	—	15.38%
14–20	15.38%	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	23.08%
21–27	15.38%	23.08%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	46.15%
28–34	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
35–41	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.46%	46.15%	15.38%	—	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	6.62	+15.38
SD	8.06	5.04	9.70
CV	0.37	0.76	—
Max	41	16	+34
Min	10	0	+1

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	18.18%	9.09%	27.27%	—	—	—	—	54.55%
7–13	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	54.55%	9.09%	36.36%	—	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.27	7.64	-0.36
SD	7.20	8.24	13.31
CV	0.99	1.08	—
Max	21	20	+21
Min	0	0	-20

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	18.18%	9.09%	72.73%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%	—	18.18%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	—	36.36%	9.09%	100%

Cincinnati Reds — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.36	27.64	-24.27
SD	4.63	18.68	19.75
CV	1.38	0.68	—
Max	14	64	+6
Min	0	0	-64

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	23.08%	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.08%
7–13	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	23.08%
14–20	—	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
21–27	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
28–34	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
35–41	7.69%	15.38%	—	—	—	—	—	23.08%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	61.54%	30.77%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.31	4.54	+13.77
SD	14.34	6.25	15.24
CV	0.78	1.38	—
Max	40	19	+38
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	23.08%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	38.46%
7–13	7.69%	—	—	7.69%	—	—	—	15.38%
14–20	23.08%	—	—	7.69%	—	—	—	30.77%
21–27	—	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	61.54%	7.69%	15.38%	15.38%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.00	8.62	+3.38
SD	11.73	9.23	15.72
CV	0.98	1.07	—
Max	41	27	+41
Min	0	0	-14

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	15.38%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	30.77%
7–13	—	7.69%	—	7.69%	—	—	—	15.38%
14–20	23.08%	23.08%	—	—	—	—	—	46.15%
21–27	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	46.15%	38.46%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.31	8.23	+3.08
SD	7.94	8.35	13.30
CV	0.70	1.01	—
Max	27	27	+27
Min	0	0	-20

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	45.45%
7–13	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	45.45%	27.27%	27.27%	—	—	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.55	7.73	+3.82
SD	18.18	7.11	22.55
CV	1.58	0.92	—
Max	64	19	+64
Min	0	0	-17

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	58.33%
7–13	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	—	41.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	4.25	17.17	-12.92
SD	5.08	12.85	14.98
CV	1.20	0.75	—
Max	13	40	+13
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	13	7.06	+5.94
2	Detroit Lions	10	7.06	+2.94
3	New York Giants	8	6.77	+1.23
4	Green Bay Packers	7	6.63	+0.37
5	Boston Redskins	6	6.03	-0.03

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cincinnati Reds	1	4.92	-3.92
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	5.57	-3.57
3	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	5.51	-1.51
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	5.36	-1.36
5	Chicago Cardinals	5	5.09	-0.09

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	13	Sep 23 – Dec 2	1 in 3,292
2	Detroit Lions	10	Sep 23 – Nov 18	1 in 420
3	New York Giants	5	Oct 3 – Oct 28	1 in 24
4	Philadelphia Eagles	2	Nov 25 – Dec 2	1 in 5
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	2	Nov 11 – Nov 18	1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Reds	8	Sep 9 – Nov 6	1 in 148
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	7	Oct 10 – Nov 18	1 in 65
3	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Oct 7 – Oct 28	1 in 15
4	Detroit Lions	3	Nov 25 – Dec 2	1 in 9
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	Oct 7 – Oct 21	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	38.52%	23.76%	17.29%	12.01%	8.42%
Boston Redskins	21.70%	22.80%	20.57%	18.78%	16.15%
Pittsburgh Pirates	15.55%	18.91%	20.45%	21.64%	23.45%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.57%	18.47%	20.99%	23.56%	24.41%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.66%	16.06%	20.70%	24.01%	27.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	34.36%	26.87%	19.95%	12.12%	6.70%
Chicago Bears	33.38%	27.92%	19.78%	12.34%	6.58%
Green Bay Packers	22.87%	25.40%	23.40%	16.80%	11.53%
Chicago Cardinals	4.80%	10.15%	18.53%	29.11%	37.41%
Cincinnati Reds	4.59%	9.66%	18.34%	29.63%	37.78%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	21.87%	15.83%	14.47%	11.67%	9.60%	8.03%	6.40%	5.50%	3.67%	2.96%
Detroit Lions	21.47%	16.64%	13.69%	11.59%	9.90%	8.02%	6.40%	5.44%	3.73%	3.12%
New York Giants	17.56%	16.25%	12.59%	12.15%	9.84%	9.23%	7.56%	6.13%	5.20%	3.49%
Green Bay Packers	14.66%	13.10%	12.97%	11.39%	11.54%	9.48%	8.22%	7.61%	5.96%	5.07%
Boston Redskins	8.01%	10.90%	10.93%	11.49%	10.73%	11.07%	10.22%	9.91%	9.07%	7.67%
Pittsburgh Pirates	4.83%	7.95%	8.79%	10.04%	10.55%	10.88%	10.94%	11.48%	12.05%	12.49%
Brooklyn Dodgers	4.10%	6.48%	8.51%	9.92%	10.15%	11.41%	12.12%	12.51%	12.81%	11.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.32%	6.09%	7.55%	8.99%	9.99%	10.99%	11.98%	13.06%	13.87%	14.16%
Chicago Cardinals	2.24%	3.56%	5.44%	6.62%	8.95%	10.39%	13.22%	14.33%	17.21%	18.04%
Cincinnati Reds	1.94%	3.20%	5.06%	6.14%	8.75%	10.50%	12.94%	14.03%	16.43%	21.01%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	38.52%	61.48%
Boston Redskins	21.70%	78.30%
Pittsburgh Pirates	15.55%	84.45%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.57%	87.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.66%	88.34%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Detroit Lions	34.36%	65.64%
Chicago Bears	33.38%	66.62%
Green Bay Packers	22.87%	77.13%
Chicago Cardinals	4.80%	95.20%
Cincinnati Reds	4.59%	95.41%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	33.38%	20.09%
New York Giants	38.52%	19.19%
Detroit Lions	34.36%	18.69%
Green Bay Packers	22.87%	11.18%
Boston Redskins	21.70%	10.22%
Pittsburgh Pirates	15.55%	6.05%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.57%	5.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.66%	4.99%
Chicago Cardinals	4.80%	2.41%
Cincinnati Reds	4.59%	1.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Redskins	Brooklyn Dodgers	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Pirates
Boston Redskins			3.04%	0.43%	0.72%	3.27%	2.76%
Brooklyn Dodgers			1.53%	0.27%	0.34%	1.65%	1.50%
Chicago Bears	4.14%	2.61%						7.09%	2.76%	3.49%
Chicago Cardinals	0.38%	0.23%						1.12%	0.26%	0.42%
Cincinnati Reds	0.47%	0.38%						0.71%	0.13%	0.20%
Detroit Lions	4.21%	2.27%						6.77%	2.30%	3.14%
Green Bay Packers	2.28%	1.79%						3.64%	1.22%	2.25%
New York Giants			5.38%	1.15%	1.27%	7.01%	4.38%
Philadelphia Eagles			1.65%	0.21%	0.18%	1.80%	1.15%
Pittsburgh Pirates			1.69%	0.33%	0.19%	1.94%	1.90%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	53.63%
New York Giants	46.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New York Giants
Chicago Bears		53.63%
New York Giants	46.37%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 53.63% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.63%

New York Giants 46.37% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.37%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1934-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 7-0	1500.57	1490.21	49.26%	49.61%	+3.41	1-0
1934-09-30	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 6-10	1503.98	1503.00	47.91%	50.96%	-2.49	1-1
1934-10-07	New York Giants	L 13-16	1501.49	1507.74	50.20%	48.67%	-2.26	1-2
1934-10-14	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 39-0	1499.23	1475.38	54.51%	44.36%	+7.21	2-2
1934-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-24	1506.44	1517.98	46.11%	52.76%	-5.88	2-3
1934-10-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 6-0	1500.56	1487.87	52.92%	45.95%	+2.93	3-3
1934-10-28	Chicago Cardinals	W 9-0	1503.49	1488.33	53.27%	45.60%	+3.56	4-3
1934-11-04	Green Bay Packers	L 0-10	1507.05	1512.91	50.26%	48.61%	-4.13	4-4
1934-11-11	Chicago Bears	L 0-21	1502.92	1551.83	44.09%	54.78%	-5.26	4-5
1934-11-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-7	1497.66	1487.19	49.27%	49.60%	+3.41	5-5
1934-11-25	@ New York Giants	L 0-3	1501.07	1520.82	44.94%	53.93%	-2.03	5-6
1934-12-02	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 13-3	1499.04	1483.62	53.31%	45.56%	+3.75	6-6
1934-09-30	Boston Redskins	W 10-6	1503.00	1503.98	50.96%	47.91%	+2.49	1-0
1934-10-07	Chicago Bears	L 7-21	1505.49	1520.44	48.95%	49.92%	-4.76	1-1
1934-10-14	@ New York Giants	L 0-14	1500.73	1510.00	46.44%	52.43%	-4.52	1-2
1934-10-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-28	1496.21	1523.86	43.82%	55.05%	-6.04	1-3
1934-10-28	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 21-3	1490.17	1464.78	54.73%	44.14%	+4.88	2-3
1934-11-06	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-21	1495.05	1484.78	52.58%	46.30%	-6.26	2-4
1934-11-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-7	1488.79	1489.49	47.67%	51.20%	+2.30	3-4
1934-11-18	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 10-0	1491.09	1451.23	53.49%	45.38%	+3.74	4-4
1934-11-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-13	1494.83	1483.78	52.69%	46.19%	-4.94	4-5
1934-11-29	New York Giants	L 0-27	1489.89	1522.84	46.37%	52.50%	-6.27	4-6
1934-12-02	@ Boston Redskins	L 3-13	1483.62	1499.04	45.56%	53.31%	-3.74	4-7
1934-09-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1510.37	1507.76	48.14%	50.73%	+4.93	1-0
1934-09-30	@ Cincinnati Reds	W 21-3	1515.30	1484.11	52.25%	46.62%	+5.14	2-0
1934-10-07	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-7	1520.44	1505.49	49.92%	48.95%	+4.76	3-0
1934-10-10	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 28-0	1525.20	1481.55	54.03%	44.84%	+6.18	4-0
1934-10-14	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 20-0	1531.38	1498.26	52.53%	46.34%	+5.39	5-0
1934-10-21	Cincinnati Reds	W 41-7	1536.77	1466.65	60.95%	37.92%	+5.76	6-0
1934-10-28	Green Bay Packers	W 27-14	1542.53	1517.06	54.74%	44.13%	+4.14	7-0
1934-11-04	New York Giants	W 27-7	1546.67	1522.53	54.55%	44.32%	+5.16	8-0
1934-11-11	@ Boston Redskins	W 21-0	1551.83	1502.92	54.78%	44.09%	+5.26	9-0
1934-11-18	@ New York Giants	W 10-9	1557.09	1522.02	52.81%	46.06%	+1.20	10-0
1934-11-25	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-6	1558.29	1493.00	60.30%	38.58%	+3.33	11-0
1934-11-29	@ Detroit Lions	W 19-16	1561.62	1546.95	49.88%	48.99%	+2.21	12-0
1934-12-02	Detroit Lions	W 10-7	1563.83	1544.74	53.83%	45.04%	+2.03	13-0
1934-09-23	@ Cincinnati Reds	W 9-0	1492.14	1488.05	48.36%	50.51%	+3.94	1-0
1934-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-6	1496.08	1508.84	45.94%	52.93%	-2.93	1-1
1934-10-07	@ Cincinnati Reds	W 16-0	1493.15	1478.97	49.81%	49.06%	+5.11	2-1
1934-10-14	Chicago Bears	L 0-20	1498.26	1531.38	46.34%	52.53%	-5.40	2-2
1934-10-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-15	1492.86	1512.53	44.96%	53.92%	-4.53	2-3
1934-10-28	@ Boston Redskins	L 0-9	1488.33	1503.49	45.60%	53.27%	-3.55	2-4
1934-11-06	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-0	1484.78	1495.05	46.30%	52.58%	+6.25	3-4
1934-11-11	Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1491.03	1542.07	43.79%	55.08%	-2.28	3-5
1934-11-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 9-0	1488.75	1512.40	44.39%	54.48%	+4.25	4-5
1934-11-25	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-17	1493.00	1558.29	38.58%	60.30%	-3.33	4-6
1934-11-29	Green Bay Packers	W 6-0	1489.67	1510.72	48.07%	50.80%	+3.23	5-6
1934-09-09	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 0-13	1492.62	1485.64	48.77%	50.10%	-4.57	0-1
1934-09-23	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-9	1488.05	1492.14	50.51%	48.36%	-3.94	0-2
1934-09-30	Chicago Bears	L 3-21	1484.11	1515.30	46.62%	52.25%	-5.14	0-3
1934-10-07	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-16	1478.97	1493.15	49.06%	49.81%	-5.10	0-4
1934-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-41	1473.87	1505.31	43.28%	55.59%	-7.22	0-5
1934-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-41	1466.65	1536.77	37.92%	60.95%	-5.76	0-6
1934-10-28	Detroit Lions	L 0-38	1460.89	1529.89	41.26%	57.61%	-6.62	0-7
1934-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-64	1454.27	1480.32	44.05%	54.83%	-9.17	0-8
1934-11-11	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 6-0	1445.10	1454.36	49.77%	49.10%	+3.12	1-8
1934-11-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-40	1448.22	1544.35	34.46%	64.41%	-5.16	1-9
1934-12-02	Green Bay Packers	L 14-21	1443.06	1507.49	41.90%	56.97%	-2.89	1-10
1934-09-23	New York Giants	W 9-0	1505.01	1514.58	49.73%	49.14%	+3.83	1-0
1934-09-30	Chicago Cardinals	W 6-0	1508.84	1496.08	52.93%	45.94%	+2.93	2-0
1934-10-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 3-0	1511.77	1507.58	48.37%	50.50%	+2.27	3-0
1934-10-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-0	1514.04	1491.81	50.97%	47.91%	+3.94	4-0
1934-10-17	Boston Redskins	W 24-0	1517.98	1506.44	52.76%	46.11%	+5.88	5-0
1934-10-21	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 28-0	1523.86	1496.21	55.05%	43.82%	+6.03	6-0
1934-10-28	@ Cincinnati Reds	W 38-0	1529.89	1460.89	57.61%	41.26%	+6.63	7-0
1934-11-04	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 40-7	1536.52	1459.90	61.83%	37.04%	+5.55	8-0
1934-11-11	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-13	1542.07	1491.03	55.08%	43.79%	+2.28	9-0
1934-11-18	Cincinnati Reds	W 40-7	1544.35	1448.22	64.41%	34.46%	+5.16	10-0
1934-11-25	Green Bay Packers	L 0-3	1549.51	1508.16	56.98%	41.89%	-2.56	10-1
1934-11-29	Chicago Bears	L 16-19	1546.95	1561.62	48.99%	49.88%	-2.21	10-2
1934-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-10	1544.74	1563.83	45.04%	53.83%	-2.03	10-3
1934-09-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-6	1503.42	1492.65	52.65%	46.22%	+4.34	1-0
1934-09-23	Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1507.76	1510.37	50.73%	48.14%	-4.93	1-1
1934-09-30	New York Giants	W 20-6	1502.83	1510.74	49.96%	48.91%	+4.75	2-1
1934-10-07	Detroit Lions	L 0-3	1507.58	1511.77	50.50%	48.37%	-2.27	2-2
1934-10-14	Cincinnati Reds	W 41-0	1505.31	1473.87	55.59%	43.28%	+7.22	3-2
1934-10-21	Chicago Cardinals	W 15-0	1512.53	1492.86	53.92%	44.96%	+4.53	4-2
1934-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-27	1517.06	1542.53	44.13%	54.74%	-4.15	4-3
1934-11-04	@ Boston Redskins	W 10-0	1512.91	1507.05	48.61%	50.26%	+4.14	5-3
1934-11-11	@ New York Giants	L 3-17	1517.05	1517.37	47.72%	51.15%	-4.65	5-4
1934-11-18	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-9	1512.40	1488.75	54.48%	44.39%	-4.24	5-5
1934-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 3-0	1508.16	1549.51	41.89%	56.98%	+2.56	6-5
1934-11-29	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 0-6	1510.72	1489.67	50.80%	48.07%	-3.23	6-6
1934-12-02	@ Cincinnati Reds	W 21-14	1507.49	1443.06	56.97%	41.90%	+2.88	7-6
1934-09-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-9	1514.58	1505.01	49.14%	49.73%	-3.84	0-1
1934-09-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-20	1510.74	1502.83	48.91%	49.96%	-4.75	0-2
1934-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 14-12	1505.99	1481.35	51.31%	47.56%	+1.75	1-2
1934-10-07	@ Boston Redskins	W 16-13	1507.74	1501.49	48.67%	50.20%	+2.26	2-2
1934-10-14	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 14-0	1510.00	1500.73	52.43%	46.44%	+4.52	3-2
1934-10-21	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 17-7	1514.52	1468.17	57.68%	41.19%	+3.39	4-2
1934-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-0	1517.91	1484.95	55.80%	43.07%	+4.62	5-2
1934-11-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-27	1522.53	1546.67	44.32%	54.55%	-5.16	5-3
1934-11-11	Green Bay Packers	W 17-3	1517.37	1517.05	51.15%	47.72%	+4.65	6-3
1934-11-18	Chicago Bears	L 9-10	1522.02	1557.09	46.06%	52.81%	-1.20	6-4
1934-11-25	Boston Redskins	W 3-0	1520.82	1501.07	53.93%	44.94%	+2.02	7-4
1934-11-29	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 27-0	1522.84	1489.89	52.50%	46.37%	+6.27	8-4
1934-12-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-6	1529.11	1488.71	53.57%	45.30%	-3.41	8-5
1934-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-19	1492.65	1503.42	46.22%	52.65%	-4.34	0-1
1934-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 17-0	1488.31	1486.80	47.99%	50.89%	+5.46	1-1
1934-10-07	Pittsburgh Pirates	L 7-9	1493.77	1479.60	53.13%	45.74%	-1.96	1-2
1934-10-14	Detroit Lions	L 0-10	1491.81	1514.04	47.91%	50.97%	-3.94	1-3
1934-10-21	@ Boston Redskins	L 0-6	1487.87	1500.56	45.95%	52.92%	-2.92	1-4
1934-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 0-17	1484.95	1517.91	43.07%	55.80%	-4.63	1-5
1934-11-06	Cincinnati Reds	W 64-0	1480.32	1454.27	54.83%	44.05%	+9.17	2-5
1934-11-11	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-10	1489.49	1488.79	51.20%	47.67%	-2.30	2-6
1934-11-18	Boston Redskins	L 7-14	1487.19	1497.66	49.60%	49.27%	-3.41	2-7
1934-11-25	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 13-0	1483.78	1494.83	46.19%	52.69%	+4.93	3-7
1934-12-02	New York Giants	W 6-0	1488.71	1529.11	45.30%	53.57%	+3.41	4-7
1934-09-09	Cincinnati Reds	W 13-0	1485.64	1492.62	50.10%	48.77%	+4.57	1-0
1934-09-16	Boston Redskins	L 0-7	1490.21	1500.57	49.61%	49.26%	-3.41	1-1
1934-09-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-17	1486.80	1488.31	50.89%	47.99%	-5.45	1-2
1934-10-03	New York Giants	L 12-14	1481.35	1505.99	47.56%	51.31%	-1.75	1-3
1934-10-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 9-7	1479.60	1493.77	45.74%	53.13%	+1.95	2-3
1934-10-10	Chicago Bears	L 0-28	1481.55	1525.20	44.84%	54.03%	-6.17	2-4
1934-10-14	@ Boston Redskins	L 0-39	1475.38	1499.23	44.36%	54.51%	-7.21	2-5
1934-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 7-17	1468.17	1514.52	41.19%	57.68%	-3.39	2-6
1934-10-28	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 3-21	1464.78	1490.17	44.14%	54.73%	-4.88	2-7
1934-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-40	1459.90	1536.52	37.04%	61.83%	-5.54	2-8
1934-11-11	@ Cincinnati Reds	L 0-6	1454.36	1445.10	49.10%	49.77%	-3.13	2-9
1934-11-18	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-10	1451.23	1491.09	45.38%	53.49%	-3.73	2-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1934-12-09	@ New York Giants	L 13-30	1565.86	1525.70	54.10%	45.90%	-5.74	0-1
1934-12-09	Chicago Bears	W 30-13	1525.70	1565.86	45.90%	54.10%	+5.73	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1934-11-25	41.89%	Green Bay Packers	1508.16	3	@ Detroit Lions	1549.51	0
2	1934-11-18	44.39%	Chicago Cardinals	1488.75	9	@ Green Bay Packers	1512.40	0
3	1934-12-02	45.30%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1488.71	6	New York Giants	1529.11	0
4	1934-10-07	45.74%	Pittsburgh Pirates	1479.60	9	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1493.77	7
5	1934-12-09 *	45.90%	@ New York Giants	1525.70	30	Chicago Bears	1565.86	13
6	1934-11-25	46.19%	Philadelphia Eagles	1483.78	13	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1494.83	0
7	1934-11-06	46.30%	Chicago Cardinals	1484.78	21	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1495.05	0
8	1934-11-11	47.67%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1488.79	10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1489.49	7
9	1934-09-26	47.99%	Philadelphia Eagles	1488.31	17	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1486.80	0
10	1934-11-29	48.07%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1489.67	6	Green Bay Packers	1510.72	0
11	1934-09-23	48.14%	Chicago Bears	1510.37	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1507.76	10
12	1934-09-23	48.36%	Chicago Cardinals	1492.14	9	@ Cincinnati Reds	1488.05	0
13	1934-10-07	48.37%	Detroit Lions	1511.77	3	@ Green Bay Packers	1507.58	0
14	1934-11-04	48.61%	Green Bay Packers	1512.91	10	@ Boston Redskins	1507.05	0
15	1934-10-07	48.67%	New York Giants	1507.74	16	@ Boston Redskins	1501.49	13
16	1934-09-16	49.26%	Boston Redskins	1500.57	7	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1490.21	0
17	1934-11-18	49.27%	Boston Redskins	1497.66	14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1487.19	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1934-11-06	9.17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	64	1480.32	54.83%	Cincinnati Reds	0	1454.27	44.05%
2	1934-10-14	7.22	@ Green Bay Packers	41	1505.31	55.59%	Cincinnati Reds	0	1473.87	43.28%
3	1934-10-14	7.21	@ Boston Redskins	39	1499.23	54.51%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1475.38	44.36%
4	1934-10-28	6.63	Detroit Lions	38	1529.89	57.61%	@ Cincinnati Reds	0	1460.89	41.26%
5	1934-11-29	6.27	New York Giants	27	1522.84	52.50%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1489.89	46.37%
6	1934-11-06	6.26	Chicago Cardinals	21	1484.78	46.30%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1495.05	52.58%
7	1934-10-10	6.18	Chicago Bears	28	1525.20	54.03%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1481.55	44.84%
8	1934-10-21	6.04	@ Detroit Lions	28	1523.86	55.05%	Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1496.21	43.82%
9	1934-10-17	5.88	@ Detroit Lions	24	1517.98	52.76%	Boston Redskins	0	1506.44	46.11%
10	1934-10-21	5.76	@ Chicago Bears	41	1536.77	60.95%	Cincinnati Reds	7	1466.65	37.92%
11	1934-12-09 *	5.74	@ New York Giants	30	1525.70	45.90%	Chicago Bears	13	1565.86	54.10%
12	1934-11-04	5.55	@ Detroit Lions	40	1536.52	61.83%	Pittsburgh Pirates	7	1459.90	37.04%
13	1934-09-26	5.46	Philadelphia Eagles	17	1488.31	47.99%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1486.80	50.89%
14	1934-10-14	5.40	Chicago Bears	20	1531.38	52.53%	@ Chicago Cardinals	0	1498.26	46.34%
15	1934-11-11	5.26	Chicago Bears	21	1551.83	54.78%	@ Boston Redskins	0	1502.92	44.09%
16	1934-11-04	5.16	@ Chicago Bears	27	1546.67	54.55%	New York Giants	7	1522.53	44.32%
17	1934-11-18	5.16	@ Detroit Lions	40	1544.35	64.41%	Cincinnati Reds	7	1448.22	34.46%
18	1934-09-30	5.14	Chicago Bears	21	1515.30	52.25%	@ Cincinnati Reds	3	1484.11	46.62%
19	1934-10-07	5.11	Chicago Cardinals	16	1493.15	49.81%	@ Cincinnati Reds	0	1478.97	49.06%
20	1934-11-25	4.94	Philadelphia Eagles	13	1483.78	46.19%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1494.83	52.69%
21	1934-09-23	4.93	Chicago Bears	24	1510.37	48.14%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1507.76	50.73%
22	1934-10-28	4.88	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1490.17	54.73%	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	1464.78	44.14%
23	1934-10-07	4.76	Chicago Bears	21	1520.44	49.92%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	7	1505.49	48.95%
24	1934-09-30	4.75	@ Green Bay Packers	20	1502.83	49.96%	New York Giants	6	1510.74	48.91%
25	1934-11-11	4.65	@ New York Giants	17	1517.37	51.15%	Green Bay Packers	3	1517.05	47.72%