1933 NFL Season
57 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Chicago Bears
3rd Title
Runner-Up
New York Giants
1st Appearance
Biggest Overachiever
Chicago Bears
3.99 wins above expected
10 wins · 6.51 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Chicago Cardinals
3.78 wins below expected
1 wins · 5.28 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 11 | 3 | 0 | .786 | — | 244 | 101 | +143 | 7.20 | +3.80 |
| 2 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 5 | 4 | 1 | .550 | 3.5 | 93 | 54 | +39 | 5.30 | +0.20 |
| 3 | Boston Redskins | 5 | 5 | 2 | .500 | 4 | 103 | 97 | +6 | 5.99 | +0.01 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 5 | 1 | .389 | 5 | 77 | 158 | -81 | 4.73 | -1.23 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 6 | 2 | .364 | 5.5 | 67 | 208 | -141 | 5.23 | -1.23 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears Division | 10 | 2 | 1 | .808 | — | 133 | 82 | +51 | 6.51 | +3.99 |
| 2 | Portsmouth Spartans | 6 | 5 | 0 | .545 | 3.5 | 128 | 87 | +41 | 5.46 | +0.54 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 7 | 1 | .423 | 5 | 170 | 107 | +63 | 6.37 | -0.87 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 6 | 1 | .350 | 5.5 | 38 | 110 | -72 | 4.93 | -1.43 |
| 5 | Chicago Cardinals | 1 | 9 | 1 | .136 | 8 | 52 | 101 | -49 | 5.28 | -3.78 |
Playoff Bracket
NFL Championship Game
Chicago Bears
23
New York Giants
21
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | East | 1530 | 11 | 7.20 | +3.80 | 99.65% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Chicago Bears | West | 1521 | 10.5 | 6.51 | +3.99 | 99.58% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | |
| Portsmouth Spartans | West | 1508 | 6 | 5.46 | +0.54 | 82.99% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | East | 1505 | 5.5 | 5.30 | +0.20 | 66.34% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1505 | 5.5 | 6.37 | -0.87 | 43.34% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | |
| Boston Redskins | East | 1501 | 6 | 5.99 | +0.01 | 73.39% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1487 | 3.5 | 4.73 | -1.23 | 28.31% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | |
| Cincinnati Reds | West | 1487 | 3.5 | 4.93 | -1.43 | 26.02% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Chicago Cardinals | West | 1481 | 1.5 | 5.28 | -3.78 | 1.50% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | East | 1475 | 4 | 5.23 | -1.23 | 44.50% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Within East
| Team | Redskins | Dodgers | Giants | Eagles | Pirates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Redskins | — |
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Brooklyn Dodgers |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
—
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Reds | Packers | Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Redskins |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Brooklyn Dodgers |
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| New York Giants |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Reds | Packers | Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
—
|
3-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Cincinnati Reds |
—
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
—
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
0-3
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Portsmouth Spartans |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Redskins | Dodgers | Giants | Eagles | Pirates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Cincinnati Reds |
—
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Portsmouth Spartans |
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
Win
Loss
Same range
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 14.04% | 11.40% | 5.26% | 7.02% | 0.88% | — | 1.75% | 40.35% |
| 7–13 | 11.40% | 12.28% | 5.26% | 0.88% | — | 0.88% | — | 30.70% |
| 14–20 | 5.26% | 5.26% | 5.26% | 0.88% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 21–27 | 7.02% | 0.88% | 0.88% | — | — | — | — | 8.77% |
| 28–34 | 0.88% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.88% |
| 35–41 | — | 0.88% | — | — | — | — | — | 0.88% |
| 42+ | 1.75% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.75% |
| Total | 40.35% | 30.70% | 16.67% | 8.77% | 0.88% | 0.88% | 1.75% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 9.69 | 9.69 | +0.00 |
| SD | 9.79 | 9.79 | 15.53 |
| CV | 1.01 | 1.01 | — |
| Max | 56 | 56 | +56 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -56 |
Games Played: 57
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 8.33% | 25.00% | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | 41.67% |
| 7–13 | 16.67% | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 14–20 | — | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 21–27 | 8.33% | — | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 33.33% | 41.67% | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Boston Redskins — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 8.58 | 8.08 | +0.50 |
| SD | 8.75 | 6.53 | 9.81 |
| CV | 1.02 | 0.81 | — |
| Max | 21 | 20 | +15 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -14 |
Games Played: 12
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 20.00% | 30.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 14–20 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 21–27 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 28–34 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 60.00% | 30.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 9.30 | 5.40 | +3.90 |
| SD | 11.55 | 7.14 | 16.16 |
| CV | 1.24 | 1.32 | — |
| Max | 32 | 21 | +32 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -14 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 15.38% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | — | 23.08% |
| 7–13 | 23.08% | 15.38% | — | — | — | — | — | 38.46% |
| 14–20 | — | 23.08% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 30.77% |
| 21–27 | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 46.15% | 46.15% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 10.23 | 6.31 | +3.92 |
| SD | 6.73 | 4.05 | 6.50 |
| CV | 0.66 | 0.64 | — |
| Max | 22 | 14 | +16 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -10 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 27.27% | 27.27% | 9.09% | 9.09% | — | — | — | 72.73% |
| 7–13 | — | 18.18% | 9.09% | — | — | — | — | 27.27% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 27.27% | 45.45% | 18.18% | 9.09% | — | — | — | 100% |
Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 4.73 | 9.18 | -4.45 |
| SD | 4.50 | 6.66 | 5.37 |
| CV | 0.95 | 0.73 | — |
| Max | 13 | 22 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -16 |
Games Played: 11
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 30.00% | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 70.00% |
| 7–13 | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Cincinnati Reds — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 3.80 | 11.00 | -7.20 |
| SD | 4.92 | 9.57 | 12.02 |
| CV | 1.29 | 0.87 | — |
| Max | 12 | 27 | +10 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -27 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 15.38% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 23.08% |
| 7–13 | 7.69% | 23.08% | 15.38% | — | — | — | — | 46.15% |
| 14–20 | 15.38% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 42+ | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| Total | 30.77% | 46.15% | 23.08% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 13.08 | 8.23 | +4.85 |
| SD | 13.27 | 6.25 | 16.93 |
| CV | 1.01 | 0.76 | — |
| Max | 47 | 20 | +47 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -13 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 42.86% |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 50.00% | 21.43% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 100% |
New York Giants — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.43 | 7.21 | +10.21 |
| SD | 13.15 | 7.02 | 16.02 |
| CV | 0.75 | 0.97 | — |
| Max | 56 | 21 | +56 |
| Min | 3 | 0 | -10 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 22.22% | 11.11% | — | 11.11% | — | — | 11.11% | 55.56% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | 11.11% | — | 11.11% |
| 14–20 | 11.11% | — | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 22.22% |
| 21–27 | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 44.44% | 11.11% | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | 11.11% | 11.11% | 100% |
Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 8.56 | 17.56 | -9.00 |
| SD | 9.28 | 18.60 | 23.80 |
| CV | 1.08 | 1.06 | — |
| Max | 25 | 56 | +19 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -56 |
Games Played: 9
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | 18.18% | — | — | 36.36% | 9.09% | — | 9.09% | 72.73% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 9.09% | 9.09% | 9.09% | — | — | — | — | 27.27% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 27.27% | 9.09% | 9.09% | 36.36% | 9.09% | — | 9.09% | 100% |
Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 6.09 | 18.91 | -12.82 |
| SD | 6.53 | 14.17 | 17.97 |
| CV | 1.07 | 0.75 | — |
| Max | 17 | 47 | +14 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -47 |
Games Played: 11
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 9.09% | — | — | — | — | 9.09% |
| 7–13 | 27.27% | 18.18% | 9.09% | — | — | — | — | 54.55% |
| 14–20 | — | 9.09% | 9.09% | — | — | — | — | 18.18% |
| 21–27 | 18.18% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.18% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 45.45% | 27.27% | 27.27% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Portsmouth Spartans — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 11.64 | 7.91 | +3.73 |
| SD | 7.26 | 7.30 | 12.84 |
| CV | 0.62 | 0.92 | — |
| Max | 25 | 17 | +25 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -17 |
Games Played: 11
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 10.5 | 6.51 | +3.99 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 11 | 7.20 | +3.80 |
| 3 | Portsmouth Spartans | 6 | 5.46 | +0.54 |
| 4 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 5.5 | 5.30 | +0.20 |
| 5 | Boston Redskins | 6 | 5.99 | +0.01 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cardinals | 1.5 | 5.28 | -3.78 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Reds | 3.5 | 4.93 | -1.43 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3.5 | 4.73 | -1.23 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 5.23 | -1.23 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 5.5 | 6.37 | -0.87 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 7 | Nov 5 – Dec 10 | 1 in 102 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 6 | Sep 24 – Oct 29 | 1 in 75 |
| 3 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 3 | Nov 12 – Nov 26 | 1 in 14 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Reds | 2 | Nov 12 – Nov 19 | 1 in 6 |
| 5 | Portsmouth Spartans | 3 | Sep 17 – Oct 1 | 1 in 5 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cardinals | 7 | Oct 15 – Nov 30 | 1 in 340 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | Sep 17 – Oct 15 | 1 in 15 |
| 3 | Portsmouth Spartans | 3 | Nov 19 – Dec 3 | 1 in 10 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | Oct 15 – Oct 29 | 1 in 8 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | Nov 12 – Dec 3 | 1 in 8 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 51.22% | 21.99% | 13.04% | 8.39% | 5.36% |
| Boston Redskins | 23.56% | 27.40% | 20.28% | 16.41% | 12.35% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 10.20% | 20.05% | 23.93% | 23.48% | 22.34% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 9.45% | 17.11% | 21.89% | 22.91% | 28.64% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5.57% | 13.45% | 20.86% | 28.81% | 31.31% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 34.21% | 24.52% | 18.14% | 13.50% | 9.63% |
| Green Bay Packers | 34.39% | 23.94% | 18.18% | 14.29% | 9.20% |
| Portsmouth Spartans | 12.94% | 18.26% | 21.09% | 23.32% | 24.39% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 11.28% | 17.77% | 21.62% | 22.97% | 26.36% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 7.18% | 15.51% | 20.97% | 25.92% | 30.42% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 31.48% | 19.61% | 11.91% | 9.65% | 7.01% | 6.58% | 4.64% | 4.11% | 3.06% | 1.95% |
| Chicago Bears | 18.69% | 16.05% | 13.05% | 11.65% | 9.29% | 8.73% | 6.82% | 6.43% | 4.91% | 4.38% |
| Green Bay Packers | 17.53% | 16.30% | 12.13% | 11.75% | 9.58% | 8.93% | 7.58% | 6.43% | 5.35% | 4.42% |
| Boston Redskins | 12.10% | 12.09% | 12.77% | 11.90% | 10.56% | 9.63% | 9.44% | 8.24% | 7.20% | 6.07% |
| Portsmouth Spartans | 5.61% | 7.75% | 9.62% | 9.57% | 10.98% | 11.02% | 11.22% | 11.62% | 11.63% | 10.98% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 3.45% | 6.45% | 9.92% | 10.37% | 11.29% | 11.69% | 12.24% | 11.37% | 12.00% | 11.22% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 4.13% | 7.12% | 9.18% | 9.45% | 10.88% | 11.02% | 10.97% | 11.71% | 12.53% | 13.01% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 3.41% | 6.07% | 8.40% | 9.47% | 10.44% | 10.80% | 12.14% | 12.13% | 13.45% | 13.69% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1.93% | 4.83% | 7.20% | 8.98% | 10.10% | 10.98% | 12.00% | 13.08% | 14.27% | 16.63% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.67% | 3.73% | 5.82% | 7.21% | 9.87% | 10.62% | 12.95% | 14.88% | 15.60% | 17.65% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 51.22% | 48.78% |
| Boston Redskins | 23.56% | 76.44% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 10.20% | 89.80% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 9.45% | 90.55% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5.57% | 94.43% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 34.39% | 65.61% |
| Chicago Bears | 34.21% | 65.79% |
| Portsmouth Spartans | 12.94% | 87.06% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 11.28% | 88.72% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 7.18% | 92.82% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 34.21% | 21.60% |
| Green Bay Packers | 34.39% | 21.08% |
| New York Giants | 51.22% | 20.93% |
| Boston Redskins | 23.56% | 8.44% |
| Portsmouth Spartans | 12.94% | 7.90% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 11.28% | 6.83% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 7.18% | 4.24% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 10.20% | 3.91% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 9.45% | 3.04% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5.57% | 2.03% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Boston Redskins | Brooklyn Dodgers | Chicago Bears | Chicago Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Pirates | Portsmouth Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Redskins | 2.80% | 0.79% | 0.65% | 3.13% | 1.07% | |||||
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 1.40% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 1.56% | 0.58% | |||||
| Chicago Bears | 4.95% | 2.16% | 10.60% | 1.30% | 2.59% | |||||
| Chicago Cardinals | 1.47% | 0.38% | 3.99% | 0.48% | 0.51% | |||||
| Cincinnati Reds | 1.35% | 0.31% | 2.23% | 0.15% | 0.20% | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 5.48% | 2.60% | 9.74% | 1.07% | 2.19% | |||||
| New York Giants | 6.63% | 2.85% | 1.92% | 6.84% | 2.69% | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.69% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.69% | 0.25% | |||||
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.09% | 0.27% | 0.14% | 1.09% | 0.45% | |||||
| Portsmouth Spartans | 1.87% | 0.84% | 3.73% | 0.54% | 0.92% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 61.38% |
| New York Giants | 38.62% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Bears | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 61.38% | |
| New York Giants | 38.62% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Chicago Bears
61.38% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. New York Giants
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
61.38%
New York Giants
38.62% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Chicago Bears
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
38.62%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1933-09-17 | @ Green Bay Packers | T 7-7 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 33.58% | 57.61% | +0.13 | 0-0 |
| 1933-10-01 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-7 | 1500.13 | 1503.51 | 33.16% | 58.06% | -2.10 | 0-1 |
| 1933-10-04 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 21-6 | 1498.03 | 1494.74 | 34.00% | 57.17% | +5.10 | 1-1 |
| 1933-10-08 | New York Giants | W 21-20 | 1503.13 | 1505.78 | 57.26% | 33.91% | +0.81 | 2-1 |
| 1933-10-15 | Portsmouth Spartans | L 0-13 | 1503.94 | 1503.56 | 57.66% | 33.53% | -4.78 | 2-2 |
| 1933-10-22 | Chicago Cardinals | W 10-0 | 1499.16 | 1499.34 | 57.59% | 33.60% | +2.54 | 3-2 |
| 1933-10-29 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 14-16 | 1501.70 | 1487.41 | 59.50% | 31.81% | -1.94 | 3-3 |
| 1933-11-05 | Chicago Bears | W 10-0 | 1499.76 | 1514.06 | 55.68% | 35.41% | +2.68 | 4-3 |
| 1933-11-12 | @ New York Giants | L 0-7 | 1502.44 | 1513.55 | 32.20% | 59.08% | -2.04 | 4-4 |
| 1933-11-19 | Green Bay Packers | W 20-7 | 1500.40 | 1507.09 | 56.71% | 34.43% | +2.96 | 5-4 |
| 1933-11-26 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 0-14 | 1503.36 | 1508.60 | 32.92% | 58.31% | -2.95 | 5-5 |
| 1933-12-03 | @ Chicago Cardinals | T 0-0 | 1500.41 | 1481.45 | 36.01% | 55.05% | +0.10 | 5-5 |
| 1933-10-08 | Chicago Bears | L 0-10 | 1500.00 | 1505.61 | 56.86% | 34.29% | -4.14 | 0-1 |
| 1933-10-15 | Cincinnati Reds | W 27-0 | 1495.86 | 1490.98 | 58.26% | 32.97% | +4.10 | 1-1 |
| 1933-10-22 | @ New York Giants | L 7-21 | 1499.96 | 1510.87 | 32.22% | 59.06% | -2.89 | 1-2 |
| 1933-10-29 | Chicago Cardinals | W 7-0 | 1497.07 | 1496.79 | 57.65% | 33.55% | +2.12 | 2-2 |
| 1933-11-05 | Pittsburgh Pirates | T 3-3 | 1499.19 | 1489.35 | 58.92% | 32.36% | -0.14 | 2-2 |
| 1933-11-12 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 32-0 | 1499.05 | 1489.49 | 34.80% | 56.33% | +7.34 | 3-2 |
| 1933-11-19 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 3-0 | 1506.39 | 1488.67 | 35.85% | 55.22% | +2.21 | 4-2 |
| 1933-11-26 | Boston Redskins | W 14-0 | 1508.60 | 1503.36 | 58.31% | 32.92% | +2.95 | 5-2 |
| 1933-11-30 | New York Giants | L 0-10 | 1511.55 | 1519.51 | 56.54% | 34.59% | -4.12 | 5-3 |
| 1933-12-03 | @ Cincinnati Reds | L 0-10 | 1507.43 | 1484.08 | 36.59% | 54.45% | -2.76 | 5-4 |
| 1933-09-24 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 14-7 | 1500.00 | 1499.87 | 33.60% | 57.59% | +3.51 | 1-0 |
| 1933-10-01 | Boston Redskins | W 7-0 | 1503.51 | 1500.13 | 58.06% | 33.16% | +2.10 | 2-0 |
| 1933-10-08 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 10-0 | 1505.61 | 1500.00 | 34.29% | 56.86% | +4.14 | 3-0 |
| 1933-10-15 | Chicago Cardinals | W 12-9 | 1509.75 | 1500.68 | 58.81% | 32.45% | +1.35 | 4-0 |
| 1933-10-22 | Green Bay Packers | W 10-7 | 1511.10 | 1502.98 | 58.69% | 32.57% | +1.35 | 5-0 |
| 1933-10-29 | New York Giants | W 14-10 | 1512.45 | 1513.76 | 57.44% | 33.75% | +1.61 | 6-0 |
| 1933-11-05 | @ Boston Redskins | L 0-10 | 1514.06 | 1499.76 | 35.41% | 55.68% | -2.67 | 6-1 |
| 1933-11-12 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | T 3-3 | 1511.39 | 1487.05 | 36.72% | 54.31% | +0.10 | 6-1 |
| 1933-11-19 | @ New York Giants | L 0-3 | 1511.49 | 1515.59 | 33.07% | 58.16% | -1.37 | 6-2 |
| 1933-11-26 | Portsmouth Spartans | W 17-14 | 1510.12 | 1513.92 | 57.10% | 34.06% | +1.41 | 7-2 |
| 1933-11-30 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 22-6 | 1511.53 | 1486.46 | 36.82% | 54.21% | +5.01 | 8-2 |
| 1933-12-03 | @ Portsmouth Spartans | W 17-7 | 1516.54 | 1512.51 | 34.09% | 57.07% | +4.16 | 9-2 |
| 1933-12-10 | Green Bay Packers | W 7-6 | 1520.70 | 1505.70 | 59.59% | 31.73% | +0.76 | 10-2 |
| 1933-09-27 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | L 13-14 | 1500.00 | 1493.92 | 34.35% | 56.80% | -0.82 | 0-1 |
| 1933-10-01 | @ Portsmouth Spartans | L 6-7 | 1499.18 | 1506.24 | 32.70% | 58.55% | -0.78 | 0-2 |
| 1933-10-08 | @ Cincinnati Reds | W 3-0 | 1498.40 | 1496.32 | 33.84% | 57.33% | +2.28 | 1-2 |
| 1933-10-15 | @ Chicago Bears | L 9-12 | 1500.68 | 1509.75 | 32.45% | 58.81% | -1.34 | 1-3 |
| 1933-10-22 | @ Boston Redskins | L 0-10 | 1499.34 | 1499.16 | 33.60% | 57.59% | -2.55 | 1-4 |
| 1933-10-29 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 0-7 | 1496.79 | 1497.07 | 33.55% | 57.65% | -2.12 | 1-5 |
| 1933-11-05 | Green Bay Packers | L 6-14 | 1494.67 | 1505.52 | 56.15% | 34.96% | -3.66 | 1-6 |
| 1933-11-12 | Cincinnati Reds | L 9-12 | 1491.01 | 1483.47 | 58.61% | 32.64% | -2.34 | 1-7 |
| 1933-11-19 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 0-3 | 1488.67 | 1506.39 | 55.22% | 35.85% | -2.21 | 1-8 |
| 1933-11-30 | Chicago Bears | L 6-22 | 1486.46 | 1511.53 | 54.21% | 36.82% | -5.01 | 1-9 |
| 1933-12-03 | Boston Redskins | T 0-0 | 1481.45 | 1500.41 | 55.05% | 36.01% | -0.10 | 1-9 |
| 1933-09-17 | @ Portsmouth Spartans | L 0-21 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 33.58% | 57.61% | -3.68 | 0-1 |
| 1933-10-08 | Chicago Cardinals | L 0-3 | 1496.32 | 1498.40 | 57.33% | 33.84% | -2.29 | 0-2 |
| 1933-10-11 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | L 3-17 | 1494.03 | 1489.64 | 34.14% | 57.02% | -3.05 | 0-3 |
| 1933-10-15 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 0-27 | 1490.98 | 1495.86 | 32.97% | 58.26% | -4.10 | 0-4 |
| 1933-10-22 | Pittsburgh Pirates | T 0-0 | 1486.88 | 1487.28 | 57.56% | 33.63% | -0.13 | 0-4 |
| 1933-11-05 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-6 | 1486.75 | 1483.78 | 58.01% | 33.21% | -3.28 | 0-5 |
| 1933-11-12 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 12-9 | 1483.47 | 1491.01 | 32.64% | 58.61% | +2.34 | 1-5 |
| 1933-11-19 | Portsmouth Spartans | W 10-7 | 1485.81 | 1515.46 | 53.58% | 37.43% | +1.54 | 2-5 |
| 1933-11-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 3-20 | 1487.35 | 1490.39 | 33.20% | 58.02% | -3.27 | 2-6 |
| 1933-12-03 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 10-0 | 1484.08 | 1507.43 | 54.45% | 36.59% | +2.75 | 3-6 |
| 1933-09-17 | Boston Redskins | T 7-7 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 57.61% | 33.58% | -0.13 | 0-0 |
| 1933-09-24 | Chicago Bears | L 7-14 | 1499.87 | 1500.00 | 57.59% | 33.60% | -3.51 | 0-1 |
| 1933-10-01 | New York Giants | L 7-10 | 1496.36 | 1503.52 | 56.65% | 34.49% | -2.26 | 0-2 |
| 1933-10-08 | Portsmouth Spartans | W 17-0 | 1494.10 | 1507.03 | 55.87% | 35.23% | +3.47 | 1-2 |
| 1933-10-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 47-0 | 1497.57 | 1492.69 | 58.26% | 32.97% | +5.41 | 2-2 |
| 1933-10-22 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-10 | 1502.98 | 1511.10 | 32.57% | 58.69% | -1.35 | 2-3 |
| 1933-10-29 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-9 | 1501.63 | 1487.67 | 59.45% | 31.85% | +3.89 | 3-3 |
| 1933-11-05 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 14-6 | 1505.52 | 1494.67 | 34.96% | 56.15% | +3.66 | 4-3 |
| 1933-11-12 | @ Portsmouth Spartans | L 0-7 | 1509.18 | 1513.37 | 33.06% | 58.17% | -2.09 | 4-4 |
| 1933-11-19 | @ Boston Redskins | L 7-20 | 1507.09 | 1500.40 | 34.43% | 56.71% | -2.97 | 4-5 |
| 1933-11-26 | @ New York Giants | L 6-17 | 1504.12 | 1516.97 | 31.99% | 59.31% | -2.54 | 4-6 |
| 1933-12-03 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 10-0 | 1501.58 | 1493.67 | 34.58% | 56.55% | +4.12 | 5-6 |
| 1933-12-10 | @ Chicago Bears | L 6-7 | 1505.70 | 1520.70 | 31.73% | 59.59% | -0.76 | 5-7 |
| 1933-09-20 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 23-2 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 33.58% | 57.61% | +6.08 | 1-0 |
| 1933-09-24 | @ Portsmouth Spartans | L 7-17 | 1506.08 | 1503.68 | 33.88% | 57.29% | -2.56 | 1-1 |
| 1933-10-01 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 10-7 | 1503.52 | 1496.36 | 34.49% | 56.65% | +2.26 | 2-1 |
| 1933-10-08 | @ Boston Redskins | L 20-21 | 1505.78 | 1503.13 | 33.91% | 57.26% | -0.81 | 2-2 |
| 1933-10-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 56-0 | 1504.97 | 1500.00 | 58.27% | 32.96% | +5.90 | 3-2 |
| 1933-10-22 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 21-7 | 1510.87 | 1499.96 | 59.06% | 32.22% | +2.89 | 4-2 |
| 1933-10-29 | @ Chicago Bears | L 10-14 | 1513.76 | 1512.45 | 33.75% | 57.44% | -1.61 | 4-3 |
| 1933-11-05 | Portsmouth Spartans | W 13-10 | 1512.15 | 1514.77 | 57.26% | 33.91% | +1.40 | 5-3 |
| 1933-11-12 | Boston Redskins | W 7-0 | 1513.55 | 1502.44 | 59.08% | 32.20% | +2.04 | 6-3 |
| 1933-11-19 | Chicago Bears | W 3-0 | 1515.59 | 1511.49 | 58.16% | 33.07% | +1.38 | 7-3 |
| 1933-11-26 | Green Bay Packers | W 17-6 | 1516.97 | 1504.12 | 59.31% | 31.99% | +2.54 | 8-3 |
| 1933-11-30 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 10-0 | 1519.51 | 1511.55 | 34.59% | 56.54% | +4.12 | 9-3 |
| 1933-12-03 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 27-3 | 1523.63 | 1478.70 | 63.39% | 28.22% | +3.33 | 10-3 |
| 1933-12-10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 20-14 | 1526.96 | 1489.55 | 38.47% | 52.50% | +2.97 | 11-3 |
| 1933-10-15 | @ New York Giants | L 0-56 | 1500.00 | 1504.97 | 32.96% | 58.27% | -5.91 | 0-1 |
| 1933-10-18 | Portsmouth Spartans | L 0-25 | 1494.09 | 1508.35 | 55.69% | 35.40% | -6.42 | 0-2 |
| 1933-10-29 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 9-35 | 1487.67 | 1501.63 | 31.85% | 59.45% | -3.89 | 0-3 |
| 1933-11-05 | @ Cincinnati Reds | W 6-0 | 1483.78 | 1486.75 | 33.21% | 58.01% | +3.27 | 1-3 |
| 1933-11-12 | Chicago Bears | T 3-3 | 1487.05 | 1511.39 | 54.31% | 36.72% | -0.10 | 1-3 |
| 1933-11-19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 25-6 | 1486.95 | 1482.14 | 58.25% | 32.98% | +3.44 | 2-3 |
| 1933-11-26 | Cincinnati Reds | W 20-3 | 1490.39 | 1487.35 | 58.02% | 33.20% | +3.28 | 3-3 |
| 1933-12-03 | Green Bay Packers | L 0-10 | 1493.67 | 1501.58 | 56.55% | 34.58% | -4.12 | 3-4 |
| 1933-12-10 | New York Giants | L 14-20 | 1489.55 | 1526.96 | 52.50% | 38.47% | -2.98 | 3-5 |
| 1933-09-20 | New York Giants | L 2-23 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 57.61% | 33.58% | -6.08 | 0-1 |
| 1933-09-27 | Chicago Cardinals | W 14-13 | 1493.92 | 1500.00 | 56.80% | 34.35% | +0.82 | 1-1 |
| 1933-10-04 | Boston Redskins | L 6-21 | 1494.74 | 1498.03 | 57.17% | 34.00% | -5.10 | 1-2 |
| 1933-10-11 | Cincinnati Reds | W 17-3 | 1489.64 | 1494.03 | 57.02% | 34.14% | +3.05 | 2-2 |
| 1933-10-15 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 0-47 | 1492.69 | 1497.57 | 32.97% | 58.26% | -5.41 | 2-3 |
| 1933-10-22 | @ Cincinnati Reds | T 0-0 | 1487.28 | 1486.88 | 33.63% | 57.56% | +0.13 | 2-3 |
| 1933-10-29 | @ Boston Redskins | W 16-14 | 1487.41 | 1501.70 | 31.81% | 59.50% | +1.94 | 3-3 |
| 1933-11-05 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | T 3-3 | 1489.35 | 1499.19 | 32.36% | 58.92% | +0.14 | 3-3 |
| 1933-11-12 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 0-32 | 1489.49 | 1499.05 | 56.33% | 34.80% | -7.35 | 3-4 |
| 1933-11-19 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 6-25 | 1482.14 | 1486.95 | 32.98% | 58.25% | -3.44 | 3-5 |
| 1933-12-03 | @ New York Giants | L 3-27 | 1478.70 | 1523.63 | 28.22% | 63.39% | -3.32 | 3-6 |
| 1933-09-17 | Cincinnati Reds | W 21-0 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 57.61% | 33.58% | +3.68 | 1-0 |
| 1933-09-24 | New York Giants | W 17-7 | 1503.68 | 1506.08 | 57.29% | 33.88% | +2.56 | 2-0 |
| 1933-10-01 | Chicago Cardinals | W 7-6 | 1506.24 | 1499.18 | 58.55% | 32.70% | +0.79 | 3-0 |
| 1933-10-08 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 0-17 | 1507.03 | 1494.10 | 35.23% | 55.87% | -3.47 | 3-1 |
| 1933-10-15 | @ Boston Redskins | W 13-0 | 1503.56 | 1503.94 | 33.53% | 57.66% | +4.79 | 4-1 |
| 1933-10-18 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 25-0 | 1508.35 | 1494.09 | 35.40% | 55.69% | +6.42 | 5-1 |
| 1933-11-05 | @ New York Giants | L 10-13 | 1514.77 | 1512.15 | 33.91% | 57.26% | -1.40 | 5-2 |
| 1933-11-12 | Green Bay Packers | W 7-0 | 1513.37 | 1509.18 | 58.17% | 33.06% | +2.09 | 6-2 |
| 1933-11-19 | @ Cincinnati Reds | L 7-10 | 1515.46 | 1485.81 | 37.43% | 53.58% | -1.54 | 6-3 |
| 1933-11-26 | @ Chicago Bears | L 14-17 | 1513.92 | 1510.12 | 34.06% | 57.10% | -1.41 | 6-4 |
| 1933-12-03 | Chicago Bears | L 7-17 | 1512.51 | 1516.54 | 57.07% | 34.09% | -4.16 | 6-5 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1933-12-17 | New York Giants | W 23-21 | 1521.46 | 1529.93 | 61.13% | 38.87% | +1.17 | 1-0 |
| 1933-12-17 | @ Chicago Bears | L 21-23 | 1529.93 | 1521.46 | 38.87% | 61.13% | -1.17 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1933-10-29 | 31.81% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1487.41 | 16 | @ Boston Redskins | 1501.70 | 14 |
| 2 | 1933-11-12 | 32.64% | Cincinnati Reds | 1483.47 | 12 | @ Chicago Cardinals | 1491.01 | 9 |
| 3 | 1933-11-05 | 33.21% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1483.78 | 6 | @ Cincinnati Reds | 1486.75 | 0 |
| 4 | 1933-10-15 | 33.53% | Portsmouth Spartans | 1503.56 | 13 | @ Boston Redskins | 1503.94 | 0 |
| 5 | 1933-09-20 | 33.58% | New York Giants | 1500.00 | 23 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1500.00 | 2 |
| 6 | 1933-09-24 | 33.60% | Chicago Bears | 1500.00 | 14 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1499.87 | 7 |
| 7 | 1933-10-08 | 33.84% | Chicago Cardinals | 1498.40 | 3 | @ Cincinnati Reds | 1496.32 | 0 |
| 8 | 1933-10-04 | 34.00% | Boston Redskins | 1498.03 | 21 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1494.74 | 6 |
| 9 | 1933-12-03 | 34.09% | Chicago Bears | 1516.54 | 17 | @ Portsmouth Spartans | 1512.51 | 7 |
| 10 | 1933-10-08 | 34.29% | Chicago Bears | 1505.61 | 10 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1500.00 | 0 |
| 11 | 1933-10-01 | 34.49% | New York Giants | 1503.52 | 10 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1496.36 | 7 |
| 12 | 1933-12-03 | 34.58% | Green Bay Packers | 1501.58 | 10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1493.67 | 0 |
| 13 | 1933-11-30 | 34.59% | New York Giants | 1519.51 | 10 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1511.55 | 0 |
| 14 | 1933-11-12 | 34.80% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1499.05 | 32 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1489.49 | 0 |
| 15 | 1933-11-05 | 34.96% | Green Bay Packers | 1505.52 | 14 | @ Chicago Cardinals | 1494.67 | 6 |
| 16 | 1933-10-18 | 35.40% | Portsmouth Spartans | 1508.35 | 25 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1494.09 | 0 |
| 17 | 1933-11-19 | 35.85% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1506.39 | 3 | @ Chicago Cardinals | 1488.67 | 0 |
| 18 | 1933-11-30 | 36.82% | Chicago Bears | 1511.53 | 22 | @ Chicago Cardinals | 1486.46 | 6 |
| 19 | 1933-12-10 | 38.47% | New York Giants | 1526.96 | 20 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1489.55 | 14 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1933-11-12 | 7.35 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 32 | 1499.05 | 34.80% | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 1489.49 | 56.33% |
| 2 | 1933-10-18 | 6.42 | Portsmouth Spartans | 25 | 1508.35 | 35.40% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 1494.09 | 55.69% |
| 3 | 1933-09-20 | 6.08 | New York Giants | 23 | 1500.00 | 33.58% | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 1500.00 | 57.61% |
| 4 | 1933-10-15 | 5.91 | @ New York Giants | 56 | 1504.97 | 58.27% | Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 1500.00 | 32.96% |
| 5 | 1933-10-15 | 5.41 | @ Green Bay Packers | 47 | 1497.57 | 58.26% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 1492.69 | 32.97% |
| 6 | 1933-10-04 | 5.10 | Boston Redskins | 21 | 1498.03 | 34.00% | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6 | 1494.74 | 57.17% |
| 7 | 1933-11-30 | 5.01 | Chicago Bears | 22 | 1511.53 | 36.82% | @ Chicago Cardinals | 6 | 1486.46 | 54.21% |
| 8 | 1933-10-15 | 4.79 | Portsmouth Spartans | 13 | 1503.56 | 33.53% | @ Boston Redskins | 0 | 1503.94 | 57.66% |
| 9 | 1933-12-03 | 4.16 | Chicago Bears | 17 | 1516.54 | 34.09% | @ Portsmouth Spartans | 7 | 1512.51 | 57.07% |
| 10 | 1933-10-08 | 4.14 | Chicago Bears | 10 | 1505.61 | 34.29% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1500.00 | 56.86% |
| 11 | 1933-11-30 | 4.12 | New York Giants | 10 | 1519.51 | 34.59% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1511.55 | 56.54% |
| 12 | 1933-12-03 | 4.12 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 1501.58 | 34.58% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 1493.67 | 56.55% |
| 13 | 1933-10-15 | 4.10 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 27 | 1495.86 | 58.26% | Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1490.98 | 32.97% |
| 14 | 1933-10-29 | 3.89 | @ Green Bay Packers | 35 | 1501.63 | 59.45% | Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | 1487.67 | 31.85% |
| 15 | 1933-09-17 | 3.68 | @ Portsmouth Spartans | 21 | 1500.00 | 57.61% | Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1500.00 | 33.58% |
| 16 | 1933-11-05 | 3.66 | Green Bay Packers | 14 | 1505.52 | 34.96% | @ Chicago Cardinals | 6 | 1494.67 | 56.15% |
| 17 | 1933-09-24 | 3.51 | Chicago Bears | 14 | 1500.00 | 33.60% | @ Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1499.87 | 57.59% |
| 18 | 1933-10-08 | 3.47 | @ Green Bay Packers | 17 | 1494.10 | 55.87% | Portsmouth Spartans | 0 | 1507.03 | 35.23% |
| 19 | 1933-11-19 | 3.44 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 1486.95 | 58.25% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6 | 1482.14 | 32.98% |
| 20 | 1933-12-03 | 3.33 | @ New York Giants | 27 | 1523.63 | 63.39% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 1478.70 | 28.22% |
| 21 | 1933-11-05 | 3.28 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 1483.78 | 33.21% | @ Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1486.75 | 58.01% |
| 22 | 1933-11-26 | 3.28 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 20 | 1490.39 | 58.02% | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 1487.35 | 33.20% |
| 23 | 1933-10-11 | 3.05 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17 | 1489.64 | 57.02% | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 1494.03 | 34.14% |
| 24 | 1933-12-10 | 2.98 | New York Giants | 20 | 1526.96 | 38.47% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 1489.55 | 52.50% |
| 25 | 1933-11-19 | 2.97 | @ Boston Redskins | 20 | 1500.40 | 56.71% | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1507.09 | 34.43% |