1966 AFL Season

63 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

2nd Title

Last Title: 1962

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1965

Biggest Overachiever

Kansas City Chiefs

3.12 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.38 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

3.83 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.83 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	9	4	1	.679	—	358	255	+103	8.41	+1.09
2	Boston Patriots	8	4	2	.643	0.5	315	283	+32	7.28	+1.72
3	New York Jets	6	6	2	.500	2.5	322	312	+10	7.23	-0.23
4	Miami Dolphins	3	11	0	.214	6.5	213	362	-149	2.90	+0.10
5	Houston Oilers	3	11	0	.214	6.5	335	396	-61	6.83	-3.83

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	11	2	1	.821	—	448	276	+172	8.38	+3.12
2	Oakland Raiders	8	5	1	.607	3	315	288	+27	7.79	+0.71
3	San Diego Chargers	7	6	1	.536	4	335	284	+51	8.09	-0.59
4	Denver Broncos	4	10	0	.286	7.5	196	381	-185	6.09	-2.09

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Kansas City Chiefs 31

Buffalo Bills 7

Jan 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1593	11.5	8.38	+3.12	99.77%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Buffalo Bills	East	1589	9.5	8.41	+1.09	93.22%	2	5	7	8	9	11	13
San Diego Chargers	West	1555	7.5	8.09	-0.59	70.18%	1	5	6	8	9	10	14
Oakland Raiders	West	1548	8.5	7.79	+0.71	89.92%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Boston Patriots	East	1542	9	7.28	+1.72	98.35%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	East	1509	7	7.23	-0.23	84.09%	1	4	5	7	8	10	13
Houston Oilers	East	1459	3	6.83	-3.83	5.75%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Denver Broncos	West	1435	4	6.09	-2.09	27.61%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
Miami Dolphins	East	1271	3	2.90	+0.10	79.04%	0	0	1	2	3	5	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Dolphins	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)

Within West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Dolphins	Jets
Denver Broncos	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	2.38%	1.59%	1.59%	—	—	5.56%
7–13	—	—	3.97%	3.17%	3.97%	0.79%	3.17%	15.08%
14–20	2.38%	3.97%	9.52%	3.97%	2.38%	2.38%	1.59%	26.19%
21–27	1.59%	3.17%	3.97%	7.94%	2.38%	1.59%	3.17%	23.81%
28–34	1.59%	3.97%	2.38%	2.38%	3.17%	0.79%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	0.79%	2.38%	1.59%	0.79%	1.59%	—	7.14%
42+	—	3.17%	1.59%	3.17%	—	—	—	7.94%
Total	5.56%	15.08%	26.19%	23.81%	14.29%	7.14%	7.94%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.52	22.52	+0.00
SD	11.78	11.78	18.06
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	58	58	+46
Min	0	0	-46

Games Played: 63

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	28.57%	—	—	7.14%	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	35.71%	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	20.21	+2.29
SD	9.70	10.79	13.62
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	38	43	+24
Min	0	3	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%	28.57%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.57	18.21	+7.36
SD	14.99	10.32	17.66
CV	0.59	0.57	—
Max	58	42	+34
Min	3	0	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	50.00%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.00	27.21	-13.21
SD	9.28	13.99	16.24
CV	0.66	0.51	—
Max	40	56	+10
Min	3	7	-46

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.93	28.29	-4.36
SD	9.16	16.62	22.05
CV	0.38	0.59	—
Max	45	52	+38
Min	13	0	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
Total	—	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.00	19.71	+12.29
SD	12.56	7.50	17.41
CV	0.39	0.38	—
Max	56	34	+46
Min	13	10	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	—	14.29%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.21	25.86	-10.64
SD	7.54	13.07	14.89
CV	0.50	0.51	—
Max	29	58	+17
Min	0	7	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	22.29	+0.71
SD	12.99	9.82	15.45
CV	0.56	0.44	—
Max	52	42	+39
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	20.57	+1.93
SD	11.22	9.31	17.11
CV	0.50	0.45	—
Max	41	32	+22
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	21.43%	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	50.00%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	14.29%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.93	20.29	+3.64
SD	9.44	10.67	16.07
CV	0.39	0.53	—
Max	44	41	+34
Min	14	0	-22

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Kansas City Chiefs	11.5	8.38	+3.12
2	Boston Patriots	9	7.28	+1.72
3	Buffalo Bills	9.5	8.41	+1.09
4	Oakland Raiders	8.5	7.79	+0.71
5	Miami Dolphins	3	2.90	+0.10

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	3	6.83	-3.83
2	Denver Broncos	4	6.09	-2.09
3	San Diego Chargers	7.5	8.09	-0.59
4	New York Jets	7	7.23	-0.23
5	Miami Dolphins	3	2.90	+0.10

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Miami Dolphins	2	Oct 16 – Oct 23	1 in 25
2	Buffalo Bills	5	Oct 30 – Nov 24	1 in 18
3	Boston Patriots	3	Oct 8 – Oct 30	1 in 14
4	San Diego Chargers	4	Sep 4 – Oct 2	1 in 9
5	Oakland Raiders	3	Oct 9 – Oct 23	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	8	Oct 23 – Dec 18	1 in 898
2	New York Jets	4	Oct 16 – Nov 13	1 in 19
3	Denver Broncos	4	Oct 8 – Oct 30	1 in 17
4	San Diego Chargers	3	Nov 6 – Nov 27	1 in 16
5	Oakland Raiders	3	Sep 10 – Sep 25	1 in 10

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	44.20%	27.81%	17.33%	9.91%	0.75%
Boston Patriots	20.88%	25.91%	26.34%	24.13%	2.74%
New York Jets	20.38%	24.07%	27.45%	24.93%	3.17%
Houston Oilers	14.39%	21.78%	26.97%	31.81%	5.05%
Miami Dolphins	0.15%	0.43%	1.91%	9.22%	88.29%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	37.64%	29.99%	21.56%	10.81%
San Diego Chargers	31.55%	29.66%	25.32%	13.47%
Oakland Raiders	25.02%	27.79%	29.32%	17.87%
Denver Broncos	5.79%	12.56%	23.80%	57.85%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Buffalo Bills	22.07%	18.19%	15.91%	13.55%	10.44%	9.20%	6.25%	3.83%	0.56%
Kansas City Chiefs	21.59%	18.12%	15.95%	12.66%	11.25%	9.20%	6.82%	3.94%	0.47%
San Diego Chargers	18.12%	16.22%	15.06%	13.49%	12.43%	9.84%	8.79%	5.31%	0.74%
Oakland Raiders	13.06%	13.91%	14.20%	14.18%	13.80%	12.37%	10.09%	7.15%	1.24%
Boston Patriots	8.85%	11.07%	11.77%	13.40%	12.90%	14.22%	13.44%	12.13%	2.22%
New York Jets	8.85%	10.35%	11.15%	12.54%	13.58%	14.54%	14.28%	12.39%	2.32%
Houston Oilers	5.39%	7.68%	9.77%	11.77%	14.10%	14.40%	16.65%	16.09%	4.15%
Denver Broncos	2.05%	4.38%	6.07%	8.18%	10.92%	14.82%	19.81%	26.29%	7.48%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%	0.08%	0.12%	0.23%	0.58%	1.41%	3.87%	12.87%	80.82%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	44.20%	55.80%
Boston Patriots	20.88%	79.12%
New York Jets	20.38%	79.62%
Houston Oilers	14.39%	85.61%
Miami Dolphins	0.15%	99.85%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	37.64%	62.36%
San Diego Chargers	31.55%	68.45%
Oakland Raiders	25.02%	74.98%
Denver Broncos	5.79%	94.21%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Buffalo Bills	44.20%	23.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	37.64%	22.03%
San Diego Chargers	31.55%	16.51%
Oakland Raiders	25.02%	12.93%
Boston Patriots	20.88%	9.96%
New York Jets	20.38%	8.41%
Houston Oilers	14.39%	5.01%
Denver Broncos	5.79%	2.07%
Miami Dolphins	0.15%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots			0.79%		3.08%			2.65%	3.44%
Buffalo Bills			1.74%		7.96%			6.29%	7.09%
Denver Broncos	0.34%	0.82%		0.40%			0.51%
Houston Oilers			0.47%		1.55%			1.28%	1.71%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.29%	8.25%		3.75%		0.05%	5.69%
New York Jets			0.72%		3.02%			1.87%	2.80%
Oakland Raiders	3.01%	5.40%		2.13%		0.04%	2.35%
San Diego Chargers	3.28%	6.65%		3.10%		0.06%	3.42%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Kansas City Chiefs	57.62%	Won Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Patriots	Kansas City Chiefs
Boston Patriots		42.38%
Kansas City Chiefs	57.62%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Kansas City Chiefs 57.62% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Boston Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.62%

Boston Patriots 42.38% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.38%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1966-09-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-24	1523.65	1563.63	36.53%	55.45%	-7.50	0-1
1966-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-10	1516.15	1476.49	47.68%	44.23%	+6.84	1-1
1966-09-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-43	1522.99	1561.13	44.44%	47.46%	-8.01	1-2
1966-10-02	New York Jets	T 24-24	1514.98	1531.28	47.58%	44.33%	-0.03	1-2
1966-10-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-10	1514.95	1568.61	34.73%	57.29%	+7.37	2-2
1966-10-23	San Diego Chargers	W 35-17	1522.32	1577.26	42.06%	49.86%	+8.67	3-2
1966-10-30	Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1530.99	1532.43	49.70%	42.22%	+3.04	4-2
1966-11-06	Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1534.03	1436.43	62.90%	29.27%	-6.75	4-3
1966-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 27-21	1527.28	1485.09	55.75%	36.24%	+3.72	5-3
1966-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	T 27-27	1531.00	1581.43	35.15%	56.86%	+0.21	5-3
1966-11-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-14	1531.21	1273.52	74.17%	18.61%	+1.95	6-3
1966-12-04	Buffalo Bills	W 14-3	1533.16	1591.35	41.60%	50.31%	+6.84	7-3
1966-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 38-14	1540.00	1470.18	51.95%	39.98%	+8.16	8-3
1966-12-17	@ New York Jets	L 28-38	1548.16	1502.24	48.57%	43.34%	-6.31	8-4
1966-09-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-27	1571.81	1555.43	44.34%	47.57%	-8.20	0-1
1966-09-11	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-42	1563.61	1541.94	52.94%	39.00%	-10.14	0-2
1966-09-18	Miami Dolphins	W 58-24	1553.47	1270.76	80.70%	12.74%	+3.17	1-2
1966-09-25	Houston Oilers	W 27-20	1556.64	1503.23	57.25%	34.76%	+3.87	2-2
1966-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 29-14	1560.51	1569.14	40.81%	51.12%	+8.10	3-2
1966-10-08	Boston Patriots	L 10-20	1568.61	1514.95	57.29%	34.73%	-7.37	3-3
1966-10-16	San Diego Chargers	T 17-17	1561.24	1577.23	47.62%	44.28%	-0.03	3-3
1966-10-30	@ New York Jets	W 33-23	1561.21	1520.30	47.86%	44.05%	+5.76	4-3
1966-11-06	@ Miami Dolphins	W 29-0	1566.97	1282.26	76.56%	16.43%	+3.79	5-3
1966-11-13	New York Jets	W 14-3	1570.76	1514.53	57.63%	34.40%	+4.79	6-3
1966-11-20	@ Houston Oilers	W 42-20	1575.55	1481.37	55.31%	36.67%	+7.21	7-3
1966-11-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-10	1582.76	1551.30	46.50%	45.40%	+8.59	8-3
1966-12-04	@ Boston Patriots	L 3-14	1591.35	1533.16	50.31%	41.60%	-6.84	8-4
1966-12-18	Denver Broncos	W 38-21	1584.51	1439.36	68.40%	24.01%	+4.22	9-4
1966-09-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-45	1487.06	1492.64	41.23%	50.69%	-10.57	0-1
1966-09-18	Boston Patriots	L 10-24	1476.49	1516.15	44.23%	47.68%	-6.85	0-2
1966-09-25	New York Jets	L 7-16	1469.64	1526.07	41.85%	50.06%	-5.21	0-3
1966-10-02	Houston Oilers	W 40-38	1464.43	1499.36	44.90%	47.00%	+2.74	1-3
1966-10-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-37	1467.17	1561.04	29.72%	62.44%	-6.54	1-4
1966-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-24	1460.63	1262.70	68.13%	24.27%	-11.37	1-5
1966-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-56	1449.26	1557.00	34.88%	57.13%	-9.94	1-6
1966-10-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-24	1439.32	1568.59	25.69%	66.63%	-2.89	1-7
1966-11-06	@ Boston Patriots	W 17-10	1436.43	1534.03	29.27%	62.90%	+6.75	2-7
1966-11-20	Oakland Raiders	L 3-17	1443.18	1545.72	35.56%	56.44%	-5.59	2-8
1966-11-27	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1437.59	1555.64	33.55%	58.49%	+4.12	3-8
1966-12-04	Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1441.71	1271.57	71.04%	21.53%	+2.91	4-8
1966-12-11	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-28	1444.62	1542.55	29.24%	62.94%	-5.26	4-9
1966-12-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-38	1439.36	1584.51	24.01%	68.40%	-4.21	4-10
1966-09-03	Denver Broncos	W 45-7	1492.64	1487.06	50.69%	41.23%	+10.57	1-0
1966-09-10	Oakland Raiders	W 31-0	1503.21	1541.51	44.42%	47.48%	+10.88	2-0
1966-09-18	@ New York Jets	L 13-52	1514.09	1515.21	41.86%	50.06%	-10.86	2-1
1966-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-27	1503.23	1556.64	34.76%	57.25%	-3.87	2-2
1966-10-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 38-40	1499.36	1464.43	47.00%	44.90%	-2.73	2-3
1966-10-16	New York Jets	W 24-0	1496.63	1533.32	44.65%	47.25%	+9.52	3-3
1966-10-23	Miami Dolphins	L 13-20	1506.15	1274.07	76.78%	16.22%	-8.19	3-4
1966-10-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-48	1497.96	1566.94	32.77%	59.30%	-6.90	3-5
1966-11-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 23-38	1491.06	1529.39	36.75%	55.23%	-5.97	3-6
1966-11-13	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-27	1485.09	1527.28	36.24%	55.75%	-3.72	3-7
1966-11-20	Buffalo Bills	L 20-42	1481.37	1575.55	36.67%	55.31%	-7.20	3-8
1966-12-04	San Diego Chargers	L 22-28	1474.17	1551.53	38.95%	53.00%	-3.99	3-9
1966-12-11	Boston Patriots	L 14-38	1470.18	1540.00	39.98%	51.95%	-8.16	3-10
1966-12-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-29	1462.02	1268.06	67.69%	24.68%	-2.74	3-11
1966-09-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 42-20	1541.94	1563.61	39.00%	52.94%	+10.15	1-0
1966-09-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 32-10	1552.09	1530.63	45.06%	46.84%	+9.04	2-0
1966-09-25	@ Boston Patriots	W 43-24	1561.13	1522.99	47.46%	44.44%	+8.01	3-0
1966-10-02	Buffalo Bills	L 14-29	1569.14	1560.51	51.12%	40.81%	-8.10	3-1
1966-10-08	Denver Broncos	W 37-10	1561.04	1467.17	62.44%	29.72%	+6.54	4-1
1966-10-16	Oakland Raiders	L 13-34	1567.58	1518.36	56.70%	35.31%	-10.58	4-2
1966-10-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 56-10	1557.00	1449.26	57.13%	34.88%	+9.94	5-2
1966-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 48-23	1566.94	1497.96	59.30%	32.77%	+6.91	6-2
1966-11-06	San Diego Chargers	W 24-14	1573.85	1571.49	50.23%	41.68%	+5.48	7-2
1966-11-13	Miami Dolphins	W 34-16	1579.33	1278.47	81.94%	11.65%	+2.10	8-2
1966-11-20	Boston Patriots	T 27-27	1581.43	1531.00	56.86%	35.15%	-0.21	8-2
1966-11-27	@ New York Jets	W 32-24	1581.22	1512.58	51.78%	40.15%	+4.74	9-2
1966-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 19-18	1585.96	1268.66	79.18%	14.07%	+0.60	10-2
1966-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1586.56	1561.28	45.61%	46.29%	+6.03	11-2
1966-09-02	Oakland Raiders	L 14-23	1275.00	1539.19	18.07%	74.76%	-2.32	0-1
1966-09-09	New York Jets	L 14-19	1272.68	1513.29	20.11%	72.55%	-1.92	0-2
1966-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-58	1270.76	1553.47	12.74%	80.70%	-3.17	0-3
1966-10-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-44	1267.59	1576.45	11.20%	82.47%	-2.79	0-4
1966-10-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-21	1264.80	1516.26	14.80%	78.36%	-2.10	0-5
1966-10-16	Denver Broncos	W 24-7	1262.70	1460.63	24.27%	68.13%	+11.37	1-5
1966-10-23	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-13	1274.07	1506.15	16.22%	76.78%	+8.19	2-5
1966-11-06	Buffalo Bills	L 0-29	1282.26	1566.97	16.43%	76.56%	-3.79	2-6
1966-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-34	1278.47	1579.33	11.65%	81.94%	-2.11	2-7
1966-11-20	@ New York Jets	L 13-30	1276.36	1509.74	16.13%	76.89%	-2.84	2-8
1966-11-27	Boston Patriots	L 14-20	1273.52	1531.21	18.61%	74.17%	-1.95	2-9
1966-12-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-17	1271.57	1441.71	21.53%	71.04%	-2.91	2-10
1966-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	L 18-19	1268.66	1585.96	14.07%	79.18%	-0.60	2-11
1966-12-18	Houston Oilers	W 29-28	1268.06	1462.02	24.68%	67.69%	+2.74	3-11
1966-09-09	@ Miami Dolphins	W 19-14	1513.29	1272.68	72.55%	20.11%	+1.92	1-0
1966-09-18	Houston Oilers	W 52-13	1515.21	1514.09	50.06%	41.86%	+10.86	2-0
1966-09-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-7	1526.07	1469.64	50.06%	41.85%	+5.21	3-0
1966-10-02	@ Boston Patriots	T 24-24	1531.28	1514.98	44.33%	47.58%	+0.03	3-0
1966-10-08	San Diego Chargers	W 17-16	1531.31	1579.24	43.05%	48.86%	+2.01	4-0
1966-10-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-24	1533.32	1496.63	47.25%	44.65%	-9.53	4-1
1966-10-23	Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1523.79	1528.93	49.17%	42.74%	-3.49	4-2
1966-10-30	Buffalo Bills	L 23-33	1520.30	1561.21	44.05%	47.86%	-5.77	4-3
1966-11-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-14	1514.53	1570.76	34.40%	57.63%	-4.79	4-4
1966-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 30-13	1509.74	1276.36	76.89%	16.13%	+2.84	5-4
1966-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-32	1512.58	1581.22	40.15%	51.78%	-4.73	5-5
1966-12-03	@ Oakland Raiders	T 28-28	1507.85	1542.72	37.21%	54.76%	+0.17	5-5
1966-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 27-42	1508.02	1555.51	35.54%	56.46%	-5.78	5-6
1966-12-17	Boston Patriots	W 38-28	1502.24	1548.16	43.34%	48.57%	+6.31	6-6
1966-09-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-14	1539.19	1275.00	74.76%	18.07%	+2.32	1-0
1966-09-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-31	1541.51	1503.21	47.48%	44.42%	-10.88	1-1
1966-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-32	1530.63	1552.09	46.84%	45.06%	-9.05	1-2
1966-09-25	San Diego Chargers	L 20-29	1521.58	1571.13	42.82%	49.09%	-5.32	1-3
1966-10-09	Miami Dolphins	W 21-10	1516.26	1264.80	78.36%	14.80%	+2.10	2-3
1966-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-13	1518.36	1567.58	35.31%	56.70%	+10.57	3-3
1966-10-23	@ New York Jets	W 24-21	1528.93	1523.79	42.74%	49.17%	+3.50	4-3
1966-10-30	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-24	1532.43	1530.99	42.22%	49.70%	-3.04	4-4
1966-11-06	Houston Oilers	W 38-23	1529.39	1491.06	55.23%	36.75%	+5.96	5-4
1966-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-19	1535.35	1566.01	37.78%	54.18%	+10.37	6-4
1966-11-20	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-3	1545.72	1443.18	56.44%	35.56%	+5.58	7-4
1966-11-24	Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1551.30	1582.76	45.40%	46.50%	-8.58	7-5
1966-12-03	New York Jets	T 28-28	1542.72	1507.85	54.76%	37.21%	-0.17	7-5
1966-12-11	Denver Broncos	W 28-10	1542.55	1444.62	62.94%	29.24%	+5.25	8-5
1966-09-04	Buffalo Bills	W 27-7	1555.43	1571.81	47.57%	44.34%	+8.20	1-0
1966-09-10	Boston Patriots	W 24-0	1563.63	1523.65	55.45%	36.53%	+7.50	2-0
1966-09-25	@ Oakland Raiders	W 29-20	1571.13	1521.58	49.09%	42.82%	+5.32	3-0
1966-10-02	Miami Dolphins	W 44-10	1576.45	1267.59	82.47%	11.20%	+2.79	4-0
1966-10-08	@ New York Jets	L 16-17	1579.24	1531.31	48.86%	43.05%	-2.01	4-1
1966-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	T 17-17	1577.23	1561.24	44.28%	47.62%	+0.03	4-1
1966-10-23	@ Boston Patriots	L 17-35	1577.26	1522.32	49.86%	42.06%	-8.67	4-2
1966-10-30	Denver Broncos	W 24-17	1568.59	1439.32	66.63%	25.69%	+2.90	5-2
1966-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-24	1571.49	1573.85	41.68%	50.23%	-5.48	5-3
1966-11-13	Oakland Raiders	L 19-41	1566.01	1535.35	54.18%	37.78%	-10.37	5-4
1966-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1555.64	1437.59	58.49%	33.55%	-4.11	5-5
1966-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 28-22	1551.53	1474.17	53.00%	38.95%	+3.98	6-5
1966-12-11	New York Jets	W 42-27	1555.51	1508.02	56.46%	35.54%	+5.77	7-5
1966-12-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-27	1561.28	1586.56	46.29%	45.61%	-6.03	7-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1967-01-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-31	1588.73	1592.59	53.42%	46.58%	-9.92	0-1
1967-01-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-7	1592.59	1588.73	46.58%	53.42%	+9.92	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1966-10-23	16.22%	Miami Dolphins	1274.07	20	@ Houston Oilers	1506.15	13
2	1966-10-16	24.27%	@ Miami Dolphins	1262.70	24	Denver Broncos	1460.63	7
3	1966-12-18	24.68%	@ Miami Dolphins	1268.06	29	Houston Oilers	1462.02	28
4	1966-11-06	29.27%	Denver Broncos	1436.43	17	@ Boston Patriots	1534.03	10
5	1966-11-27	33.55%	@ Denver Broncos	1437.59	20	San Diego Chargers	1555.64	17
6	1966-10-08	34.73%	Boston Patriots	1514.95	20	@ Buffalo Bills	1568.61	10
7	1966-10-16	35.31%	Oakland Raiders	1518.36	34	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1567.58	13
8	1966-11-13	37.78%	Oakland Raiders	1535.35	41	@ San Diego Chargers	1566.01	19
9	1966-09-11	39.00%	Kansas City Chiefs	1541.94	42	@ Buffalo Bills	1563.61	20
10	1966-10-02	40.81%	Buffalo Bills	1560.51	29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1569.14	14
11	1966-12-04	41.60%	@ Boston Patriots	1533.16	14	Buffalo Bills	1591.35	3
12	1966-10-23	42.06%	@ Boston Patriots	1522.32	35	San Diego Chargers	1577.26	17
13	1966-10-23	42.74%	Oakland Raiders	1528.93	24	@ New York Jets	1523.79	21
14	1966-10-08	43.05%	@ New York Jets	1531.31	17	San Diego Chargers	1579.24	16
15	1966-12-17	43.34%	@ New York Jets	1502.24	38	Boston Patriots	1548.16	28
16	1966-09-10	44.42%	@ Houston Oilers	1503.21	31	Oakland Raiders	1541.51	0
17	1966-10-16	44.65%	@ Houston Oilers	1496.63	24	New York Jets	1533.32	0
18	1966-10-02	44.90%	@ Denver Broncos	1464.43	40	Houston Oilers	1499.36	38
19	1966-09-18	45.06%	Kansas City Chiefs	1552.09	32	@ Oakland Raiders	1530.63	10
20	1966-12-18	45.61%	Kansas City Chiefs	1586.56	27	@ San Diego Chargers	1561.28	17
21	1967-01-01 *	46.58%	Kansas City Chiefs	1592.59	31	@ Buffalo Bills	1588.73	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1966-10-16	11.37	@ Miami Dolphins	24	1262.70	24.27%	Denver Broncos	7	1460.63	68.13%
2	1966-09-10	10.88	@ Houston Oilers	31	1503.21	44.42%	Oakland Raiders	0	1541.51	47.48%
3	1966-09-18	10.86	@ New York Jets	52	1515.21	50.06%	Houston Oilers	13	1514.09	41.86%
4	1966-10-16	10.58	Oakland Raiders	34	1518.36	35.31%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	13	1567.58	56.70%
5	1966-09-03	10.57	@ Houston Oilers	45	1492.64	50.69%	Denver Broncos	7	1487.06	41.23%
6	1966-11-13	10.37	Oakland Raiders	41	1535.35	37.78%	@ San Diego Chargers	19	1566.01	54.18%
7	1966-09-11	10.15	Kansas City Chiefs	42	1541.94	39.00%	@ Buffalo Bills	20	1563.61	52.94%
8	1966-10-23	9.94	Kansas City Chiefs	56	1557.00	57.13%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1449.26	34.88%
9	1967-01-01 *	9.92	Kansas City Chiefs	31	1592.59	46.58%	@ Buffalo Bills	7	1588.73	53.42%
10	1966-10-16	9.53	@ Houston Oilers	24	1496.63	44.65%	New York Jets	0	1533.32	47.25%
11	1966-09-18	9.05	Kansas City Chiefs	32	1552.09	45.06%	@ Oakland Raiders	10	1530.63	46.84%
12	1966-10-23	8.67	@ Boston Patriots	35	1522.32	42.06%	San Diego Chargers	17	1577.26	49.86%
13	1966-11-24	8.59	Buffalo Bills	31	1582.76	46.50%	@ Oakland Raiders	10	1551.30	45.40%
14	1966-09-04	8.20	@ San Diego Chargers	27	1555.43	47.57%	Buffalo Bills	7	1571.81	44.34%
15	1966-10-23	8.19	Miami Dolphins	20	1274.07	16.22%	@ Houston Oilers	13	1506.15	76.78%
16	1966-12-11	8.16	Boston Patriots	38	1540.00	51.95%	@ Houston Oilers	14	1470.18	39.98%
17	1966-10-02	8.10	Buffalo Bills	29	1560.51	40.81%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	14	1569.14	51.12%
18	1966-09-25	8.01	Kansas City Chiefs	43	1561.13	47.46%	@ Boston Patriots	24	1522.99	44.44%
19	1966-09-10	7.50	@ San Diego Chargers	24	1563.63	55.45%	Boston Patriots	0	1523.65	36.53%
20	1966-10-08	7.37	Boston Patriots	20	1514.95	34.73%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1568.61	57.29%
21	1966-11-20	7.21	Buffalo Bills	42	1575.55	55.31%	@ Houston Oilers	20	1481.37	36.67%
22	1966-10-30	6.91	@ Kansas City Chiefs	48	1566.94	59.30%	Houston Oilers	23	1497.96	32.77%
23	1966-09-18	6.85	Boston Patriots	24	1516.15	47.68%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1476.49	44.23%
24	1966-12-04	6.84	@ Boston Patriots	14	1533.16	41.60%	Buffalo Bills	3	1591.35	50.31%
25	1966-11-06	6.75	Denver Broncos	17	1436.43	29.27%	@ Boston Patriots	10	1534.03	62.90%