1965 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Buffalo Bills

2nd Title

Last Title: 1964

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1964

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.66 wins above expected

9 wins · 7.84 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

2.55 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.55 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	10	3	1	.750	—	313	226	+87	8.07	+2.43
2	New York Jets	5	8	1	.393	5	285	303	-18	6.38	-0.88
3	Boston Patriots	4	8	2	.357	5.5	244	302	-58	6.81	-1.81
4	Houston Oilers	4	10	0	.286	6.5	298	429	-131	6.55	-2.55

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	9	2	3	.750	—	340	227	+113	7.84	+2.66
2	Oakland Raiders	8	5	1	.607	2	298	239	+59	7.16	+1.34
3	Kansas City Chiefs	7	5	2	.571	2.5	322	285	+37	7.28	+0.72
4	Denver Broncos	4	10	0	.286	6.5	303	392	-89	5.91	-1.91

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Buffalo Bills 23

San Diego Chargers 0

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Buffalo Bills	East	1567	10.5	8.07	+2.43	99.08%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
San Diego Chargers	West	1555	10.5	7.84	+2.66	99.90%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1523	8	7.28	+0.72	94.78%	0	4	5	6	8	10	13
Oakland Raiders	West	1518	8.5	7.16	+1.34	95.33%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Boston Patriots	East	1493	5	6.81	-1.81	59.66%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Jets	East	1474	5.5	6.38	-0.88	69.70%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Houston Oilers	East	1441	4	6.55	-2.55	24.62%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Denver Broncos	West	1428	4	5.91	-1.91	37.25%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)

Within West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Denver Broncos	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	0.89%	0.89%	0.89%	—	—	2.68%
7–13	—	7.14%	4.46%	5.36%	3.57%	1.79%	0.89%	23.21%
14–20	0.89%	4.46%	5.36%	3.57%	6.25%	0.89%	0.89%	22.32%
21–27	0.89%	5.36%	3.57%	5.36%	5.36%	1.79%	0.89%	23.21%
28–34	0.89%	3.57%	6.25%	5.36%	1.79%	—	—	17.86%
35–41	—	1.79%	0.89%	1.79%	—	1.79%	0.89%	7.14%
42+	—	0.89%	0.89%	0.89%	—	0.89%	—	3.57%
Total	2.68%	23.21%	22.32%	23.21%	17.86%	7.14%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.46	21.46	+0.00
SD	10.23	10.23	15.08
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	52	52	+35
Min	3	3	-35

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	14.29%	—	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	42.86%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.43	21.57	-4.14
SD	10.02	7.92	14.23
CV	0.57	0.37	—
Max	42	31	+28
Min	7	6	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	35.71%	42.86%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.36	16.14	+6.21
SD	8.78	7.52	12.89
CV	0.39	0.47	—
Max	34	34	+18
Min	3	7	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	28.00	-6.36
SD	7.80	10.45	13.43
CV	0.36	0.37	—
Max	35	45	+17
Min	10	10	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.29	30.64	-9.36
SD	7.02	11.01	14.26
CV	0.33	0.36	—
Max	38	52	+21
Min	14	10	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
Total	—	42.86%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	20.36	+2.64
SD	14.51	11.59	14.80
CV	0.63	0.57	—
Max	52	38	+31
Min	7	7	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.36	21.64	-1.29
SD	11.61	9.34	17.43
CV	0.57	0.43	—
Max	45	38	+35
Min	7	10	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	50.00%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.29	17.07	+4.21
SD	9.47	4.57	10.76
CV	0.44	0.27	—
Max	37	24	+27
Min	6	10	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.29	16.21	+8.07
SD	11.86	9.11	15.94
CV	0.49	0.56	—
Max	38	31	+31
Min	6	3	-24

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	10.5	7.84	+2.66
2	Buffalo Bills	10.5	8.07	+2.43
3	Oakland Raiders	8.5	7.16	+1.34
4	Kansas City Chiefs	8	7.28	+0.72
5	New York Jets	5.5	6.38	-0.88

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	4	6.55	-2.55
2	Denver Broncos	4	5.91	-1.91
3	Boston Patriots	5	6.81	-1.81
4	New York Jets	5.5	6.38	-0.88
5	Kansas City Chiefs	8	7.28	+0.72

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Jets	4	Oct 31 – Nov 21	1 in 31
2	Buffalo Bills	4	Sep 11 – Oct 3	1 in 12
3	Boston Patriots	3	Nov 28 – Dec 18	1 in 11
4	Denver Broncos	2	Sep 24 – Oct 3	1 in 7
5	San Diego Chargers	3	Dec 4 – Dec 19	1 in 6

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	7	Nov 7 – Dec 18	1 in 165
2	Boston Patriots	5	Sep 11 – Oct 8	1 in 66
3	New York Jets	4	Sep 12 – Oct 3	1 in 17
4	Denver Broncos	4	Nov 21 – Dec 19	1 in 13
5	Kansas City Chiefs	2	Oct 17 – Oct 24	1 in 5

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	48.89%	26.02%	15.61%	9.48%
Boston Patriots	20.65%	26.50%	27.21%	25.64%
Houston Oilers	15.96%	24.56%	29.22%	30.26%
New York Jets	14.50%	22.92%	27.96%	34.62%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	39.50%	28.62%	20.41%	11.47%
Kansas City Chiefs	26.95%	28.28%	26.52%	18.25%
Oakland Raiders	25.02%	27.11%	27.00%	20.87%
Denver Broncos	8.53%	15.99%	26.07%	49.41%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Buffalo Bills	25.59%	19.40%	15.13%	12.46%	9.95%	7.77%	5.97%	3.73%
San Diego Chargers	22.00%	17.64%	15.52%	13.44%	10.84%	8.65%	7.28%	4.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.83%	14.75%	14.11%	13.61%	12.86%	11.91%	10.94%	7.99%
Oakland Raiders	12.85%	13.54%	13.32%	13.81%	12.79%	12.75%	11.24%	9.70%
Boston Patriots	8.91%	11.36%	12.88%	13.12%	13.17%	13.76%	13.73%	13.07%
Houston Oilers	6.86%	9.24%	10.91%	12.76%	14.16%	15.18%	15.28%	15.61%
New York Jets	6.23%	8.38%	10.18%	11.20%	13.26%	15.31%	17.12%	18.32%
Denver Broncos	3.73%	5.69%	7.95%	9.60%	12.97%	14.67%	18.44%	26.95%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	48.89%	51.11%
Boston Patriots	20.65%	79.35%
Houston Oilers	15.96%	84.04%
New York Jets	14.50%	85.50%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	39.50%	60.50%
Kansas City Chiefs	26.95%	73.05%
Oakland Raiders	25.02%	74.98%
Denver Broncos	8.53%	91.47%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Buffalo Bills	48.89%	27.76%
San Diego Chargers	39.50%	21.74%
Kansas City Chiefs	26.95%	13.20%
Oakland Raiders	25.02%	12.63%
Boston Patriots	20.65%	9.03%
New York Jets	14.50%	6.25%
Houston Oilers	15.96%	6.04%
Denver Broncos	8.53%	3.35%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots			0.90%		2.59%		2.16%	3.38%
Buffalo Bills			2.95%		7.72%		7.04%	10.05%
Denver Broncos	0.92%	1.30%		0.56%		0.57%
Houston Oilers			0.62%		1.75%		1.53%	2.14%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.90%	5.19%		2.74%		2.37%
New York Jets			0.71%		1.69%		1.66%	2.19%
Oakland Raiders	3.06%	5.12%		2.39%		2.06%
San Diego Chargers	4.74%	9.52%		4.23%		3.25%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills	51.41%	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	48.59%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		51.41%
San Diego Chargers	48.59%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Buffalo Bills 51.41% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.41%

San Diego Chargers 48.59% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.59%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1965-09-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1521.07	1532.82	38.37%	50.47%	-6.71	0-1
1965-09-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-31	1514.36	1491.63	43.18%	45.58%	-8.30	0-2
1965-09-24	Denver Broncos	L 10-27	1506.06	1446.21	57.01%	32.13%	-9.60	0-3
1965-10-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-27	1496.46	1505.84	38.69%	50.14%	-5.19	0-4
1965-10-08	Oakland Raiders	L 10-24	1491.27	1498.15	47.84%	40.94%	-7.42	0-5
1965-10-17	San Diego Chargers	T 13-13	1483.85	1542.92	40.41%	48.38%	+0.07	0-5
1965-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-30	1483.92	1505.55	37.04%	51.85%	-4.72	0-6
1965-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	W 22-6	1479.20	1550.91	30.69%	58.56%	+9.55	1-6
1965-11-07	Buffalo Bills	L 7-23	1488.75	1550.89	39.99%	48.81%	-6.76	1-7
1965-11-14	New York Jets	L 20-30	1481.99	1471.89	50.24%	38.59%	-6.56	1-8
1965-11-21	Kansas City Chiefs	T 10-10	1475.43	1515.82	43.05%	45.71%	+0.03	1-8
1965-11-28	@ New York Jets	W 27-23	1475.46	1487.16	38.38%	50.46%	+4.16	2-8
1965-12-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-20	1479.62	1437.35	45.98%	42.78%	+5.08	3-8
1965-12-18	Houston Oilers	W 42-14	1484.70	1449.29	53.74%	35.22%	+7.96	4-8
1965-09-11	Boston Patriots	W 24-7	1532.82	1521.07	50.47%	38.37%	+6.71	1-0
1965-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-15	1539.53	1452.25	52.32%	36.58%	+6.03	2-0
1965-09-26	New York Jets	W 33-21	1545.56	1473.78	58.57%	30.68%	+4.58	3-0
1965-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 17-12	1550.14	1501.36	55.55%	33.51%	+3.21	4-0
1965-10-10	San Diego Chargers	L 3-34	1553.35	1531.01	51.94%	36.94%	-11.91	4-1
1965-10-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-7	1541.44	1515.95	43.57%	45.18%	+7.54	5-1
1965-10-24	Denver Broncos	W 31-13	1548.98	1460.18	60.73%	28.69%	+5.26	6-1
1965-10-31	Houston Oilers	L 17-19	1554.24	1486.50	58.05%	31.17%	-3.35	6-2
1965-11-07	@ Boston Patriots	W 23-7	1550.89	1488.75	48.81%	39.99%	+6.76	7-2
1965-11-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-14	1557.65	1512.45	46.40%	42.36%	+3.08	8-2
1965-11-25	@ San Diego Chargers	T 20-20	1560.73	1537.67	43.22%	45.53%	+0.02	8-2
1965-12-05	@ Houston Oilers	W 29-18	1560.75	1459.32	54.26%	34.73%	+4.93	9-2
1965-12-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-25	1565.68	1523.80	54.62%	34.39%	+4.41	10-2
1965-12-19	@ New York Jets	L 12-14	1570.09	1470.54	54.01%	34.97%	-3.14	10-3
1965-09-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 31-34	1454.62	1515.96	31.95%	57.21%	-2.37	0-1
1965-09-19	Buffalo Bills	L 15-30	1452.25	1539.53	36.58%	52.32%	-6.04	0-2
1965-09-24	@ Boston Patriots	W 27-10	1446.21	1506.06	32.13%	57.01%	+9.61	1-2
1965-10-03	New York Jets	W 16-13	1455.82	1469.20	46.92%	41.85%	+3.05	2-2
1965-10-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-31	1458.87	1511.02	41.38%	47.39%	-4.93	2-3
1965-10-17	Houston Oilers	W 28-17	1453.94	1490.17	43.64%	45.11%	+6.24	3-3
1965-10-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1460.18	1548.98	28.69%	60.73%	-5.25	3-4
1965-10-31	@ New York Jets	L 10-45	1454.93	1458.11	39.54%	49.27%	-9.90	3-5
1965-11-07	San Diego Chargers	L 21-35	1445.03	1541.36	35.39%	53.57%	-5.65	3-6
1965-11-14	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-21	1439.38	1483.15	34.15%	54.87%	+7.11	4-6
1965-11-21	Oakland Raiders	L 20-28	1446.49	1509.37	39.89%	48.92%	-4.77	4-7
1965-12-05	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-24	1441.72	1514.14	30.61%	58.65%	-4.37	4-8
1965-12-12	Boston Patriots	L 20-28	1437.35	1479.62	42.78%	45.98%	-5.08	4-9
1965-12-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 35-45	1432.27	1519.39	28.89%	60.52%	-3.94	4-10
1965-09-12	New York Jets	W 27-21	1487.57	1481.62	49.66%	39.16%	+4.06	1-0
1965-09-19	Boston Patriots	W 31-10	1491.63	1514.36	45.58%	43.18%	+8.30	2-0
1965-09-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-21	1499.93	1497.96	40.25%	48.54%	-3.40	2-1
1965-10-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1496.53	1524.66	36.18%	52.74%	-6.36	2-2
1965-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-28	1490.17	1453.94	45.11%	43.64%	-6.24	2-3
1965-10-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-36	1483.93	1508.41	45.33%	43.43%	+2.57	3-3
1965-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-17	1486.50	1554.24	31.17%	58.05%	+3.35	4-3
1965-11-07	Oakland Raiders	L 21-33	1489.85	1505.75	46.56%	42.21%	-6.70	4-4
1965-11-14	Denver Broncos	L 21-31	1483.15	1439.38	54.87%	34.15%	-7.12	4-5
1965-11-21	@ New York Jets	L 14-41	1476.03	1478.45	39.65%	49.16%	-8.71	4-6
1965-11-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-52	1467.32	1515.80	33.55%	55.51%	-8.00	4-7
1965-12-05	Buffalo Bills	L 18-29	1459.32	1560.75	34.73%	54.26%	-4.92	4-8
1965-12-12	San Diego Chargers	L 26-37	1454.40	1545.48	36.08%	52.85%	-5.11	4-9
1965-12-18	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-42	1449.29	1484.70	35.22%	53.74%	-7.95	4-10
1965-09-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-37	1511.14	1495.20	42.21%	46.55%	-9.22	0-1
1965-09-18	@ New York Jets	W 14-10	1501.92	1477.56	43.41%	45.35%	+3.78	1-1
1965-09-26	@ San Diego Chargers	T 10-10	1505.70	1524.79	37.38%	51.49%	+0.14	1-1
1965-10-03	Boston Patriots	W 27-17	1505.84	1496.46	50.14%	38.69%	+5.18	2-1
1965-10-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-23	1511.02	1458.87	47.39%	41.38%	+4.93	3-1
1965-10-17	Buffalo Bills	L 7-23	1515.95	1541.44	45.18%	43.57%	-7.54	3-2
1965-10-24	@ Houston Oilers	L 36-38	1508.41	1483.93	43.43%	45.33%	-2.57	3-3
1965-10-31	Oakland Raiders	W 14-7	1505.84	1510.28	48.19%	40.60%	+4.53	4-3
1965-11-07	New York Jets	L 10-13	1510.37	1468.01	54.68%	34.33%	-3.88	4-4
1965-11-14	San Diego Chargers	W 31-7	1506.49	1547.01	43.03%	45.73%	+9.33	5-4
1965-11-21	@ Boston Patriots	T 10-10	1515.82	1475.43	45.71%	43.05%	-0.02	5-4
1965-11-28	Houston Oilers	W 52-21	1515.80	1467.32	55.51%	33.55%	+8.00	6-4
1965-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 25-34	1523.80	1565.68	34.39%	54.62%	-4.41	6-5
1965-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 45-35	1519.39	1432.27	60.52%	28.89%	+3.94	7-5
1965-09-12	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-27	1481.62	1487.57	39.16%	49.66%	-4.06	0-1
1965-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-14	1477.56	1501.92	45.35%	43.41%	-3.78	0-2
1965-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-33	1473.78	1545.56	30.68%	58.57%	-4.58	0-3
1965-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1469.20	1455.82	41.85%	46.92%	-3.05	0-4
1965-10-16	Oakland Raiders	T 24-24	1466.15	1505.57	43.18%	45.57%	+0.03	0-4
1965-10-23	San Diego Chargers	L 9-34	1466.18	1542.84	38.00%	50.85%	-8.07	0-5
1965-10-31	Denver Broncos	W 45-10	1458.11	1454.93	49.27%	39.54%	+9.90	1-5
1965-11-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1468.01	1510.37	34.33%	54.68%	+3.88	2-5
1965-11-14	@ Boston Patriots	W 30-20	1471.89	1481.99	38.59%	50.24%	+6.56	3-5
1965-11-21	Houston Oilers	W 41-14	1478.45	1476.03	49.16%	39.65%	+8.71	4-5
1965-11-28	Boston Patriots	L 23-27	1487.16	1475.46	50.46%	38.38%	-4.17	4-6
1965-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-38	1482.99	1537.65	32.77%	56.33%	-7.83	4-7
1965-12-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-24	1475.16	1518.51	34.20%	54.82%	-4.62	4-8
1965-12-19	Buffalo Bills	W 14-12	1470.54	1570.09	34.97%	54.01%	+3.13	5-8
1965-09-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-10	1495.20	1511.14	46.55%	42.21%	+9.22	1-0
1965-09-19	San Diego Chargers	L 6-17	1504.42	1518.33	46.84%	41.93%	-6.46	1-1
1965-09-26	Houston Oilers	W 21-17	1497.96	1499.93	48.54%	40.25%	+3.40	2-1
1965-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-17	1501.36	1550.14	33.51%	55.55%	-3.21	2-2
1965-10-08	@ Boston Patriots	W 24-10	1498.15	1491.27	40.94%	47.84%	+7.42	3-2
1965-10-16	@ New York Jets	T 24-24	1505.57	1466.15	45.57%	43.18%	-0.02	3-2
1965-10-24	Boston Patriots	W 30-21	1505.55	1483.92	51.85%	37.04%	+4.73	4-2
1965-10-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-14	1510.28	1505.84	40.60%	48.19%	-4.53	4-3
1965-11-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 33-21	1505.75	1489.85	42.21%	46.56%	+6.70	5-3
1965-11-14	Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1512.45	1557.65	42.36%	46.40%	-3.08	5-4
1965-11-21	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-20	1509.37	1446.49	48.92%	39.89%	+4.77	6-4
1965-12-05	Denver Broncos	W 24-13	1514.14	1441.72	58.65%	30.61%	+4.37	7-4
1965-12-12	New York Jets	W 24-14	1518.51	1475.16	54.82%	34.20%	+4.63	8-4
1965-12-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-24	1523.14	1550.58	36.27%	52.65%	-4.89	8-5
1965-09-11	Denver Broncos	W 34-31	1515.96	1454.62	57.21%	31.95%	+2.37	1-0
1965-09-19	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-6	1518.33	1504.42	41.93%	46.84%	+6.46	2-0
1965-09-26	Kansas City Chiefs	T 10-10	1524.79	1505.70	51.49%	37.38%	-0.13	2-0
1965-10-03	Houston Oilers	W 31-14	1524.66	1496.53	52.74%	36.18%	+6.35	3-0
1965-10-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-3	1531.01	1553.35	36.94%	51.94%	+11.91	4-0
1965-10-17	@ Boston Patriots	T 13-13	1542.92	1483.85	48.38%	40.41%	-0.08	4-0
1965-10-23	@ New York Jets	W 34-9	1542.84	1466.18	50.85%	38.00%	+8.07	5-0
1965-10-31	Boston Patriots	L 6-22	1550.91	1479.20	58.56%	30.69%	-9.55	5-1
1965-11-07	@ Denver Broncos	W 35-21	1541.36	1445.03	53.57%	35.39%	+5.65	6-1
1965-11-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-31	1547.01	1506.49	45.73%	43.03%	-9.34	6-2
1965-11-25	Buffalo Bills	T 20-20	1537.67	1560.73	45.53%	43.22%	-0.02	6-2
1965-12-04	New York Jets	W 38-7	1537.65	1482.99	56.33%	32.77%	+7.83	7-2
1965-12-12	@ Houston Oilers	W 37-26	1545.48	1454.40	52.85%	36.08%	+5.10	8-2
1965-12-19	Oakland Raiders	W 24-14	1550.58	1523.14	52.65%	36.27%	+4.89	9-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1965-12-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-0	1566.95	1555.47	47.18%	52.82%	+9.40	1-0
1965-12-26	Buffalo Bills	L 0-23	1555.47	1566.95	52.82%	47.18%	-9.40	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1965-10-31	30.69%	Boston Patriots	1479.20	22	@ San Diego Chargers	1550.91	6
2	1965-10-31	31.17%	Houston Oilers	1486.50	19	@ Buffalo Bills	1554.24	17
3	1965-09-24	32.13%	Denver Broncos	1446.21	27	@ Boston Patriots	1506.06	10
4	1965-11-14	34.15%	Denver Broncos	1439.38	31	@ Houston Oilers	1483.15	21
5	1965-11-07	34.33%	New York Jets	1468.01	13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1510.37	10
6	1965-12-19	34.97%	@ New York Jets	1470.54	14	Buffalo Bills	1570.09	12
7	1965-10-10	36.94%	San Diego Chargers	1531.01	34	@ Buffalo Bills	1553.35	3
8	1965-11-28	38.38%	Boston Patriots	1475.46	27	@ New York Jets	1487.16	23
9	1965-11-14	38.59%	New York Jets	1471.89	30	@ Boston Patriots	1481.99	20
10	1965-10-08	40.94%	Oakland Raiders	1498.15	24	@ Boston Patriots	1491.27	10
11	1965-09-19	41.93%	San Diego Chargers	1518.33	17	@ Oakland Raiders	1504.42	6
12	1965-11-07	42.21%	Oakland Raiders	1505.75	33	@ Houston Oilers	1489.85	21
13	1965-11-14	43.03%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1506.49	31	San Diego Chargers	1547.01	7
14	1965-09-18	43.41%	Kansas City Chiefs	1501.92	14	@ New York Jets	1477.56	10
15	1965-10-17	43.57%	Buffalo Bills	1541.44	23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1515.95	7
16	1965-10-17	43.64%	@ Denver Broncos	1453.94	28	Houston Oilers	1490.17	17
17	1965-12-26 *	47.18%	Buffalo Bills	1566.95	23	@ San Diego Chargers	1555.47	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1965-10-10	11.91	San Diego Chargers	34	1531.01	36.94%	@ Buffalo Bills	3	1553.35	51.94%
2	1965-10-31	9.90	@ New York Jets	45	1458.11	49.27%	Denver Broncos	10	1454.93	39.54%
3	1965-09-24	9.61	Denver Broncos	27	1446.21	32.13%	@ Boston Patriots	10	1506.06	57.01%
4	1965-10-31	9.55	Boston Patriots	22	1479.20	30.69%	@ San Diego Chargers	6	1550.91	58.56%
5	1965-12-26 *	9.40	Buffalo Bills	23	1566.95	47.18%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1555.47	52.82%
6	1965-11-14	9.34	@ Kansas City Chiefs	31	1506.49	43.03%	San Diego Chargers	7	1547.01	45.73%
7	1965-09-12	9.22	@ Oakland Raiders	37	1495.20	46.55%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1511.14	42.21%
8	1965-11-21	8.71	@ New York Jets	41	1478.45	49.16%	Houston Oilers	14	1476.03	39.65%
9	1965-09-19	8.30	@ Houston Oilers	31	1491.63	45.58%	Boston Patriots	10	1514.36	43.18%
10	1965-10-23	8.07	San Diego Chargers	34	1542.84	50.85%	@ New York Jets	9	1466.18	38.00%
11	1965-11-28	8.00	@ Kansas City Chiefs	52	1515.80	55.51%	Houston Oilers	21	1467.32	33.55%
12	1965-12-18	7.96	@ Boston Patriots	42	1484.70	53.74%	Houston Oilers	14	1449.29	35.22%
13	1965-12-04	7.83	@ San Diego Chargers	38	1537.65	56.33%	New York Jets	7	1482.99	32.77%
14	1965-10-17	7.54	Buffalo Bills	23	1541.44	43.57%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1515.95	45.18%
15	1965-10-08	7.42	Oakland Raiders	24	1498.15	40.94%	@ Boston Patriots	10	1491.27	47.84%
16	1965-11-14	7.12	Denver Broncos	31	1439.38	34.15%	@ Houston Oilers	21	1483.15	54.87%
17	1965-11-07	6.76	Buffalo Bills	23	1550.89	48.81%	@ Boston Patriots	7	1488.75	39.99%
18	1965-09-11	6.71	@ Buffalo Bills	24	1532.82	50.47%	Boston Patriots	7	1521.07	38.37%
19	1965-11-07	6.70	Oakland Raiders	33	1505.75	42.21%	@ Houston Oilers	21	1489.85	46.56%
20	1965-11-14	6.56	New York Jets	30	1471.89	38.59%	@ Boston Patriots	20	1481.99	50.24%
21	1965-09-19	6.46	San Diego Chargers	17	1518.33	41.93%	@ Oakland Raiders	6	1504.42	46.84%
22	1965-10-03	6.36	@ San Diego Chargers	31	1524.66	52.74%	Houston Oilers	14	1496.53	36.18%
23	1965-10-17	6.24	@ Denver Broncos	28	1453.94	43.64%	Houston Oilers	17	1490.17	45.11%
24	1965-09-19	6.04	Buffalo Bills	30	1539.53	52.32%	@ Denver Broncos	15	1452.25	36.58%
25	1965-11-07	5.65	San Diego Chargers	35	1541.36	53.57%	@ Denver Broncos	21	1445.03	35.39%