1964 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Buffalo Bills

1st Title

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1961

Biggest Overachiever

Buffalo Bills

4.44 wins above expected

12 wins · 7.56 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

3.32 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.82 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	12	2	0	.857	—	400	242	+158	7.56	+4.44
2	Boston Patriots	10	3	1	.750	1.5	365	297	+68	7.67	+2.83
3	New York Jets	5	8	1	.393	6.5	278	315	-37	6.56	-1.06
4	Houston Oilers	4	10	0	.286	8	310	355	-45	6.72	-2.72

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	8	5	1	.607	—	341	300	+41	7.68	+0.82
2	Kansas City Chiefs	7	7	0	.500	1.5	366	306	+60	7.15	-0.15
3	Oakland Raiders	5	7	2	.429	2.5	303	350	-47	6.84	-0.84
4	Denver Broncos	2	11	1	.179	6	240	438	-198	5.82	-3.32

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Buffalo Bills 20

San Diego Chargers 7

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Buffalo Bills	East	1559	12	7.56	+4.44	99.93%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Boston Patriots	East	1543	10.5	7.67	+2.83	99.09%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Diego Chargers	West	1534	8.5	7.68	+0.82	88.57%	1	4	6	7	9	10	13
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1518	7	7.15	-0.15	65.58%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Oakland Raiders	West	1491	6	6.84	-0.84	72.15%	0	4	5	6	8	9	13
Houston Oilers	East	1473	4	6.72	-2.72	15.40%	1	3	5	6	8	9	13
New York Jets	East	1464	5.5	6.56	-1.06	57.43%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Denver Broncos	West	1418	2.5	5.82	-3.32	14.11%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)

Within West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Denver Broncos	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	3.57%
7–13	—	1.79%	2.68%	4.46%	1.79%	2.68%	0.89%	14.29%
14–20	—	2.68%	8.93%	4.46%	8.04%	1.79%	1.79%	27.68%
21–27	—	4.46%	4.46%	7.14%	2.68%	1.79%	—	20.54%
28–34	1.79%	1.79%	8.04%	2.68%	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	17.86%
35–41	0.89%	2.68%	1.79%	1.79%	0.89%	—	0.89%	8.93%
42+	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	—	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	7.14%
Total	3.57%	14.29%	27.68%	20.54%	17.86%	8.93%	7.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.24	23.24	+0.00
SD	10.79	10.79	17.00
CV	0.46	0.46	—
Max	49	49	+43
Min	3	3	-43

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	—	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.07	21.21	+4.86
SD	10.18	10.84	12.83
CV	0.39	0.51	—
Max	43	43	+29
Min	12	7	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	42.86%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.57	17.29	+11.29
SD	8.21	8.17	10.49
CV	0.29	0.47	—
Max	48	36	+31
Min	13	3	-8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.14	31.29	-14.14
SD	9.49	10.28	12.40
CV	0.55	0.33	—
Max	39	49	+6
Min	6	12	-33

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	—	35.71%	28.57%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.14	25.36	-3.21
SD	10.83	8.41	15.77
CV	0.49	0.33	—
Max	42	48	+21
Min	7	15	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.14	21.86	+4.29
SD	12.71	12.33	19.75
CV	0.49	0.56	—
Max	49	39	+43
Min	7	6	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.86	22.50	-2.64
SD	10.48	9.63	17.48
CV	0.53	0.43	—
Max	35	38	+24
Min	3	6	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	25.00	-3.36
SD	11.03	11.98	16.14
CV	0.51	0.48	—
Max	43	43	+33
Min	7	7	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	—	50.00%	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.36	21.43	+2.93
SD	10.77	10.85	19.89
CV	0.44	0.51	—
Max	42	49	+35
Min	3	3	-43

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills	12	7.56	+4.44
2	Boston Patriots	10.5	7.67	+2.83
3	San Diego Chargers	8.5	7.68	+0.82
4	Kansas City Chiefs	7	7.15	-0.15
5	Oakland Raiders	6	6.84	-0.84

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	2.5	5.82	-3.32
2	Houston Oilers	4	6.72	-2.72
3	New York Jets	5.5	6.56	-1.06
4	Oakland Raiders	6	6.84	-0.84
5	Kansas City Chiefs	7	7.15	-0.15

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Buffalo Bills	9	Sep 13 – Nov 8	1 in 291
2	San Diego Chargers	6	Oct 9 – Nov 15	1 in 84
3	Boston Patriots	5	Nov 6 – Dec 6	1 in 36
4	Kansas City Chiefs	2	Sep 27 – Oct 4	1 in 5
5	Houston Oilers	2	Sep 19 – Sep 27	1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	9	Oct 4 – Nov 29	1 in 440
2	Oakland Raiders	5	Sep 13 – Oct 10	1 in 37
3	Denver Broncos	4	Sep 12 – Oct 4	1 in 14
4	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Oct 11 – Oct 23	1 in 9
5	New York Jets	3	Nov 8 – Nov 22	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Boston Patriots	34.17%	29.23%	21.15%	15.45%
Buffalo Bills	32.64%	26.88%	23.65%	16.83%
Houston Oilers	17.76%	22.39%	27.27%	32.58%
New York Jets	15.43%	21.50%	27.93%	35.14%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	39.37%	28.68%	19.36%	12.59%
Kansas City Chiefs	28.32%	28.19%	25.36%	18.13%
Oakland Raiders	22.28%	26.30%	28.82%	22.60%
Denver Broncos	10.03%	16.83%	26.46%	46.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Boston Patriots	18.84%	17.45%	14.97%	13.62%	11.41%	9.82%	8.37%	5.52%
San Diego Chargers	19.49%	17.33%	14.69%	13.33%	11.20%	9.46%	8.13%	6.37%
Buffalo Bills	18.22%	15.72%	14.82%	12.83%	11.83%	11.23%	8.91%	6.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.21%	13.50%	13.09%	13.16%	13.18%	12.28%	11.73%	9.85%
Oakland Raiders	9.87%	11.06%	12.50%	12.78%	13.50%	13.95%	14.12%	12.22%
Houston Oilers	9.01%	9.97%	11.64%	12.37%	14.01%	14.32%	14.31%	14.37%
New York Jets	7.48%	9.66%	11.09%	12.38%	13.19%	14.36%	15.57%	16.27%
Denver Broncos	3.88%	5.31%	7.20%	9.53%	11.68%	14.58%	18.86%	28.96%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Boston Patriots	34.17%	65.83%
Buffalo Bills	32.64%	67.36%
Houston Oilers	17.76%	82.24%
New York Jets	15.43%	84.57%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	39.37%	60.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	28.32%	71.68%
Oakland Raiders	22.28%	77.72%
Denver Broncos	10.03%	89.97%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	39.37%	20.21%
Boston Patriots	34.17%	19.05%
Buffalo Bills	32.64%	18.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	28.32%	13.55%
Oakland Raiders	22.28%	9.84%
Houston Oilers	17.76%	8.29%
New York Jets	15.43%	6.91%
Denver Broncos	10.03%	3.47%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots			2.26%		5.08%		4.72%	6.99%
Buffalo Bills			2.28%		5.23%		4.41%	6.76%
Denver Broncos	1.20%	1.01%		0.77%		0.49%
Houston Oilers			1.11%		2.31%		1.97%	2.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.08%	4.22%		2.71%		2.54%
New York Jets			0.91%		2.15%		1.34%	2.51%
Oakland Raiders	2.99%	2.99%		2.10%		1.76%
San Diego Chargers	6.85%	5.74%		3.89%		3.73%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills	54.16%	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	45.84%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		54.16%
San Diego Chargers	45.84%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Buffalo Bills 54.16% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.16%

San Diego Chargers 45.84% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.84%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-09-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-14	1513.99	1507.88	36.54%	57.82%	+3.70	1-0
1964-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-28	1517.69	1528.55	34.31%	60.07%	+4.95	2-0
1964-09-27	New York Jets	W 26-10	1522.64	1481.55	63.92%	30.51%	+4.62	3-0
1964-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 39-10	1527.26	1452.79	46.06%	48.27%	+9.66	4-0
1964-10-09	San Diego Chargers	L 17-26	1536.92	1516.34	61.33%	33.06%	-6.77	4-1
1964-10-16	Oakland Raiders	T 43-43	1530.15	1482.80	64.68%	29.75%	-0.32	4-1
1964-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-7	1529.83	1503.83	62.03%	32.37%	+5.06	5-1
1964-10-31	@ New York Jets	L 14-35	1534.89	1482.31	42.94%	51.39%	-7.36	5-2
1964-11-06	Houston Oilers	W 25-24	1527.53	1481.79	64.49%	29.95%	+1.13	6-2
1964-11-15	@ Buffalo Bills	W 36-28	1528.66	1552.09	32.70%	61.70%	+6.43	7-2
1964-11-20	Denver Broncos	W 12-7	1535.09	1429.77	71.25%	23.30%	+1.99	8-2
1964-11-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 34-17	1537.08	1470.24	44.97%	49.36%	+7.56	9-2
1964-12-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1544.64	1502.80	41.43%	52.91%	+5.18	10-2
1964-12-20	Buffalo Bills	L 14-24	1549.82	1551.78	58.38%	35.99%	-6.81	10-3
1964-09-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-17	1498.51	1507.58	57.42%	36.94%	+5.74	1-0
1964-09-20	Denver Broncos	W 30-13	1504.25	1466.67	63.48%	30.94%	+4.83	2-0
1964-09-26	San Diego Chargers	W 30-3	1509.08	1523.60	56.69%	37.67%	+7.37	3-0
1964-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 23-20	1516.45	1491.54	61.89%	32.51%	+2.13	4-0
1964-10-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 48-17	1518.58	1503.33	37.77%	56.59%	+11.63	5-0
1964-10-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-22	1530.21	1511.29	38.27%	56.09%	+7.47	6-0
1964-10-24	New York Jets	W 34-24	1537.68	1485.82	65.23%	29.21%	+3.51	7-0
1964-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 24-10	1541.19	1485.88	65.64%	28.81%	+4.09	8-0
1964-11-08	@ New York Jets	W 20-7	1545.28	1489.67	43.37%	50.96%	+6.81	9-0
1964-11-15	Boston Patriots	L 28-36	1552.09	1528.66	61.70%	32.70%	-6.42	9-1
1964-11-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-24	1545.67	1549.14	35.27%	59.10%	+3.77	10-1
1964-12-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-16	1549.44	1486.31	44.44%	49.89%	-2.87	10-2
1964-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-19	1546.57	1427.72	52.40%	41.94%	+5.21	11-2
1964-12-20	@ Boston Patriots	W 24-14	1551.78	1549.82	35.99%	58.38%	+6.80	12-2
1964-09-12	@ New York Jets	L 6-30	1473.23	1474.99	35.50%	58.87%	-6.56	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-30	1466.67	1504.25	30.94%	63.48%	-4.84	0-2
1964-09-27	Houston Oilers	L 17-38	1461.83	1500.47	53.36%	40.98%	-9.04	0-3
1964-10-04	Boston Patriots	L 10-39	1452.79	1527.26	48.27%	46.06%	-9.66	0-4
1964-10-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-27	1443.13	1515.47	48.57%	45.75%	+4.18	1-4
1964-10-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-42	1447.31	1523.12	26.46%	68.03%	-5.34	1-5
1964-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-40	1441.97	1483.11	30.50%	63.92%	-6.64	1-6
1964-11-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 39-49	1435.33	1498.77	27.86%	66.60%	-3.35	1-7
1964-11-08	San Diego Chargers	L 20-31	1431.98	1536.18	44.01%	50.32%	-5.46	1-8
1964-11-15	New York Jets	W 20-16	1426.52	1482.86	50.86%	43.47%	+3.25	2-8
1964-11-20	@ Boston Patriots	L 7-12	1429.77	1535.09	23.30%	71.25%	-1.99	2-9
1964-11-29	Oakland Raiders	T 20-20	1427.78	1486.25	50.56%	43.78%	-0.06	2-9
1964-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 19-30	1427.72	1546.57	41.94%	52.40%	-5.20	2-10
1964-12-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 15-34	1422.52	1468.31	29.94%	64.49%	-4.96	2-11
1964-09-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-27	1498.25	1525.57	32.21%	62.19%	-2.99	0-1
1964-09-19	Oakland Raiders	W 42-28	1495.26	1504.19	57.44%	36.92%	+5.21	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Denver Broncos	W 38-17	1500.47	1461.83	40.98%	53.36%	+9.04	2-1
1964-10-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-28	1509.51	1509.29	35.76%	58.61%	-6.18	2-2
1964-10-11	Buffalo Bills	L 17-48	1503.33	1518.58	56.59%	37.77%	-11.63	2-3
1964-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 21-24	1491.70	1483.41	36.83%	57.53%	-2.40	2-4
1964-10-25	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1489.30	1528.46	53.28%	41.06%	-3.42	2-5
1964-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-24	1485.88	1541.19	28.81%	65.64%	-4.09	2-6
1964-11-06	@ Boston Patriots	L 24-25	1481.79	1527.53	29.95%	64.49%	-1.14	2-7
1964-11-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-20	1480.65	1477.94	36.09%	58.28%	-4.30	2-8
1964-11-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-28	1476.35	1502.12	55.14%	39.20%	-6.11	2-9
1964-11-29	Boston Patriots	L 17-34	1470.24	1537.08	49.36%	44.97%	-7.56	2-10
1964-12-13	New York Jets	W 33-17	1462.68	1474.79	57.01%	37.35%	+5.63	3-10
1964-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 34-15	1468.31	1422.52	64.49%	29.94%	+4.95	4-10
1964-09-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-34	1507.58	1498.51	36.94%	57.42%	-5.73	0-1
1964-09-27	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-9	1501.85	1498.98	36.11%	58.26%	+7.44	1-1
1964-10-04	Houston Oilers	W 28-7	1509.29	1509.51	58.61%	35.76%	+6.18	2-1
1964-10-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 27-33	1515.47	1443.13	45.75%	48.57%	-4.18	2-2
1964-10-18	Buffalo Bills	L 22-35	1511.29	1530.21	56.09%	38.27%	-7.46	2-3
1964-10-23	@ Boston Patriots	L 7-24	1503.83	1529.83	32.37%	62.03%	-5.06	2-4
1964-11-01	Denver Broncos	W 49-39	1498.77	1435.33	66.60%	27.86%	+3.35	3-4
1964-11-08	Oakland Raiders	W 42-7	1502.12	1485.45	60.83%	33.56%	+7.51	4-4
1964-11-15	San Diego Chargers	L 14-28	1509.63	1541.63	54.28%	40.06%	-7.51	4-5
1964-11-22	@ Houston Oilers	W 28-19	1502.12	1476.35	39.20%	55.14%	+6.11	5-5
1964-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 14-27	1508.23	1475.60	40.15%	54.19%	-5.43	5-6
1964-12-06	Boston Patriots	L 24-31	1502.80	1544.64	52.91%	41.43%	-5.18	5-7
1964-12-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 49-6	1497.62	1551.62	28.96%	65.48%	+15.80	6-7
1964-12-20	New York Jets	W 24-7	1513.42	1469.16	64.31%	30.12%	+4.72	7-7
1964-09-12	Denver Broncos	W 30-6	1474.99	1473.23	58.87%	35.50%	+6.56	1-0
1964-09-27	@ Boston Patriots	L 10-26	1481.55	1522.64	30.51%	63.92%	-4.63	1-1
1964-10-03	San Diego Chargers	T 17-17	1476.92	1516.24	53.26%	41.08%	-0.11	1-1
1964-10-10	Oakland Raiders	W 35-13	1476.81	1489.41	56.95%	37.41%	+6.60	2-1
1964-10-17	Houston Oilers	W 24-21	1483.41	1491.70	57.53%	36.83%	+2.41	3-1
1964-10-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-34	1485.82	1537.68	29.21%	65.23%	-3.51	3-2
1964-10-31	Boston Patriots	W 35-14	1482.31	1534.89	51.39%	42.94%	+7.36	4-2
1964-11-08	Buffalo Bills	L 7-20	1489.67	1545.28	50.96%	43.37%	-6.81	4-3
1964-11-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-20	1482.86	1426.52	43.47%	50.86%	-3.25	4-4
1964-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-35	1479.61	1482.24	35.38%	58.99%	-4.01	4-5
1964-11-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-14	1475.60	1508.23	54.19%	40.15%	+5.44	5-5
1964-12-06	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-38	1481.04	1545.37	27.76%	66.71%	-6.25	5-6
1964-12-13	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-33	1474.79	1462.68	37.35%	57.01%	-5.63	5-7
1964-12-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-24	1469.16	1513.42	30.12%	64.31%	-4.71	5-8
1964-09-13	Boston Patriots	L 14-17	1507.88	1513.99	57.82%	36.54%	-3.69	0-1
1964-09-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 28-42	1504.19	1495.26	36.92%	57.44%	-5.21	0-2
1964-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-21	1498.98	1501.85	58.26%	36.11%	-7.44	0-3
1964-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1491.54	1516.45	32.51%	61.89%	-2.13	0-4
1964-10-10	@ New York Jets	L 13-35	1489.41	1476.81	37.41%	56.95%	-6.61	0-5
1964-10-16	@ Boston Patriots	T 43-43	1482.80	1530.15	29.75%	64.68%	+0.31	0-5
1964-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 40-7	1483.11	1441.97	63.92%	30.50%	+6.65	1-5
1964-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-31	1489.76	1531.87	30.38%	64.04%	-4.31	1-6
1964-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-42	1485.45	1502.12	33.56%	60.83%	-7.51	1-7
1964-11-15	Houston Oilers	W 20-10	1477.94	1480.65	58.28%	36.09%	+4.30	2-7
1964-11-22	New York Jets	W 35-26	1482.24	1479.61	58.99%	35.38%	+4.01	3-7
1964-11-29	@ Denver Broncos	T 20-20	1486.25	1427.78	43.78%	50.56%	+0.06	3-7
1964-12-06	Buffalo Bills	W 16-13	1486.31	1549.44	49.89%	44.44%	+2.87	4-7
1964-12-20	San Diego Chargers	W 21-20	1489.18	1535.82	52.23%	42.10%	+1.58	5-7
1964-09-12	Houston Oilers	W 27-21	1525.57	1498.25	62.19%	32.21%	+2.98	1-0
1964-09-20	Boston Patriots	L 28-33	1528.55	1517.69	60.07%	34.31%	-4.95	1-1
1964-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-30	1523.60	1509.08	37.67%	56.69%	-7.36	1-2
1964-10-03	@ New York Jets	T 17-17	1516.24	1476.92	41.08%	53.26%	+0.10	1-2
1964-10-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 26-17	1516.34	1536.92	33.06%	61.33%	+6.78	2-2
1964-10-18	Denver Broncos	W 42-14	1523.12	1447.31	68.03%	26.46%	+5.34	3-2
1964-10-25	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-17	1528.46	1489.30	41.06%	53.28%	+3.41	4-2
1964-11-01	Oakland Raiders	W 31-17	1531.87	1489.76	64.04%	30.38%	+4.31	5-2
1964-11-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-20	1536.18	1431.98	50.32%	44.01%	+5.45	6-2
1964-11-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-14	1541.63	1509.63	40.06%	54.28%	+7.51	7-2
1964-11-26	Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1549.14	1545.67	59.10%	35.27%	-3.77	7-3
1964-12-06	New York Jets	W 38-3	1545.37	1481.04	66.71%	27.76%	+6.25	8-3
1964-12-13	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-49	1551.62	1497.62	65.48%	28.96%	-15.80	8-4
1964-12-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-21	1535.82	1489.18	42.10%	52.23%	-1.58	8-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-12-26	San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1558.58	1534.24	64.86%	35.14%	+4.45	1-0
1964-12-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-20	1534.24	1558.58	35.14%	64.86%	-4.45	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1964-12-13	28.96%	Kansas City Chiefs	1497.62	49	@ San Diego Chargers	1551.62	6
2	1964-11-15	32.70%	Boston Patriots	1528.66	36	@ Buffalo Bills	1552.09	28
3	1964-10-09	33.06%	San Diego Chargers	1516.34	26	@ Boston Patriots	1536.92	17
4	1964-09-20	34.31%	Boston Patriots	1517.69	33	@ San Diego Chargers	1528.55	28
5	1964-11-26	35.27%	Buffalo Bills	1545.67	27	@ San Diego Chargers	1549.14	24
6	1964-12-20	35.99%	Buffalo Bills	1551.78	24	@ Boston Patriots	1549.82	14
7	1964-09-27	36.11%	Kansas City Chiefs	1501.85	21	@ Oakland Raiders	1498.98	9
8	1964-09-13	36.54%	Boston Patriots	1513.99	17	@ Oakland Raiders	1507.88	14
9	1964-10-11	37.77%	Buffalo Bills	1518.58	48	@ Houston Oilers	1503.33	17
10	1964-10-18	38.27%	Buffalo Bills	1530.21	35	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1511.29	22
11	1964-11-22	39.20%	Kansas City Chiefs	1502.12	28	@ Houston Oilers	1476.35	19
12	1964-11-15	40.06%	San Diego Chargers	1541.63	28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1509.63	14
13	1964-09-27	40.98%	Houston Oilers	1500.47	38	@ Denver Broncos	1461.83	17
14	1964-10-25	41.06%	San Diego Chargers	1528.46	20	@ Houston Oilers	1489.30	17
15	1964-12-06	41.43%	Boston Patriots	1544.64	31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1502.80	24
16	1964-11-08	43.37%	Buffalo Bills	1545.28	20	@ New York Jets	1489.67	7
17	1964-11-29	44.97%	Boston Patriots	1537.08	34	@ Houston Oilers	1470.24	17
18	1964-10-04	46.06%	Boston Patriots	1527.26	39	@ Denver Broncos	1452.79	10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1964-12-13	15.80	Kansas City Chiefs	49	1497.62	28.96%	@ San Diego Chargers	6	1551.62	65.48%
2	1964-10-11	11.63	Buffalo Bills	48	1518.58	37.77%	@ Houston Oilers	17	1503.33	56.59%
3	1964-10-04	9.66	Boston Patriots	39	1527.26	46.06%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1452.79	48.27%
4	1964-09-27	9.04	Houston Oilers	38	1500.47	40.98%	@ Denver Broncos	17	1461.83	53.36%
5	1964-11-29	7.56	Boston Patriots	34	1537.08	44.97%	@ Houston Oilers	17	1470.24	49.36%
6	1964-11-08	7.51	@ Kansas City Chiefs	42	1502.12	60.83%	Oakland Raiders	7	1485.45	33.56%
7	1964-11-15	7.51	San Diego Chargers	28	1541.63	40.06%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	14	1509.63	54.28%
8	1964-10-18	7.47	Buffalo Bills	35	1530.21	38.27%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	22	1511.29	56.09%
9	1964-09-27	7.44	Kansas City Chiefs	21	1501.85	36.11%	@ Oakland Raiders	9	1498.98	58.26%
10	1964-09-26	7.37	@ Buffalo Bills	30	1509.08	56.69%	San Diego Chargers	3	1523.60	37.67%
11	1964-10-31	7.36	@ New York Jets	35	1482.31	51.39%	Boston Patriots	14	1534.89	42.94%
12	1964-11-08	6.81	Buffalo Bills	20	1545.28	43.37%	@ New York Jets	7	1489.67	50.96%
13	1964-12-20	6.81	Buffalo Bills	24	1551.78	35.99%	@ Boston Patriots	14	1549.82	58.38%
14	1964-10-09	6.78	San Diego Chargers	26	1516.34	33.06%	@ Boston Patriots	17	1536.92	61.33%
15	1964-10-25	6.65	@ Oakland Raiders	40	1483.11	63.92%	Denver Broncos	7	1441.97	30.50%
16	1964-10-10	6.61	@ New York Jets	35	1476.81	56.95%	Oakland Raiders	13	1489.41	37.41%
17	1964-09-12	6.56	@ New York Jets	30	1474.99	58.87%	Denver Broncos	6	1473.23	35.50%
18	1964-11-15	6.43	Boston Patriots	36	1528.66	32.70%	@ Buffalo Bills	28	1552.09	61.70%
19	1964-12-06	6.25	@ San Diego Chargers	38	1545.37	66.71%	New York Jets	3	1481.04	27.76%
20	1964-10-04	6.18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	28	1509.29	58.61%	Houston Oilers	7	1509.51	35.76%
21	1964-11-22	6.11	Kansas City Chiefs	28	1502.12	39.20%	@ Houston Oilers	19	1476.35	55.14%
22	1964-09-13	5.74	@ Buffalo Bills	34	1498.51	57.42%	Kansas City Chiefs	17	1507.58	36.94%
23	1964-12-13	5.63	@ Houston Oilers	33	1462.68	57.01%	New York Jets	17	1474.79	37.35%
24	1964-11-08	5.46	San Diego Chargers	31	1536.18	50.32%	@ Denver Broncos	20	1431.98	44.01%
25	1964-11-29	5.44	@ New York Jets	27	1475.60	54.19%	Kansas City Chiefs	14	1508.23	40.15%