1963 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Boston Patriots

1st Title

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

3.73 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.27 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

3.94 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.44 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	7	6	1	.536	—	304	291	+13	6.93	+0.57
2	Boston Patriots Playoffs	7	6	1	.536	—	327	257	+70	7.33	+0.17
3	Houston Oilers	6	8	0	.429	1.5	302	372	-70	7.15	-1.15
4	New York Jets	5	8	1	.393	2	249	399	-150	6.66	-1.16

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers	11	3	0	.786	—	399	255	+144	7.27	+3.73
2	Oakland Raiders	10	4	0	.714	1	363	282	+81	6.93	+3.07
3	Kansas City Chiefs	5	7	2	.429	5	347	263	+84	7.30	-1.30
4	Denver Broncos	2	11	1	.179	8.5	301	473	-172	6.44	-3.94

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Boston Patriots 26

Buffalo Bills 8

Dec 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Diego Chargers	West	1542	11	7.27	+3.73	99.65%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Boston Patriots	East	1522	7.5	7.33	+0.17	80.02%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Oakland Raiders	West	1515	10	6.93	+3.07	98.87%	1	4	5	7	8	9	13
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1511	6	7.30	-1.30	62.68%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	East	1506	7.5	6.93	+0.57	86.17%	1	4	5	7	8	10	13
Houston Oilers	East	1497	6	7.15	-1.15	43.44%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
New York Jets	East	1459	5.5	6.66	-1.16	55.21%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Denver Broncos	West	1447	2.5	6.44	-3.94	6.63%	1	3	5	6	7	9	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Denver Broncos	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	—	0.89%	1.79%	6.25%
7–13	1.79%	3.57%	5.36%	4.46%	1.79%	—	1.79%	18.75%
14–20	0.89%	5.36%	7.14%	2.68%	1.79%	2.68%	1.79%	22.32%
21–27	0.89%	4.46%	2.68%	3.57%	3.57%	2.68%	1.79%	19.64%
28–34	—	1.79%	1.79%	3.57%	3.57%	0.89%	1.79%	13.39%
35–41	0.89%	—	2.68%	2.68%	0.89%	1.79%	—	8.93%
42+	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	—	1.79%	10.71%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	22.32%	19.64%	13.39%	8.93%	10.71%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.14	23.14	+0.00
SD	13.66	13.66	19.19
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	59	59	+52
Min	0	0	-52

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.36	18.36	+5.00
SD	13.99	9.74	17.55
CV	0.60	0.53	—
Max	46	35	+42
Min	3	3	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.71	20.79	+0.93
SD	10.74	9.41	13.20
CV	0.49	0.45	—
Max	45	35	+31
Min	7	0	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	33.79	-12.29
SD	11.66	14.84	17.86
CV	0.54	0.44	—
Max	50	59	+16
Min	7	10	-52

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	42.86%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	35.71%	7.14%	—	21.43%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	26.57	-5.00
SD	13.48	12.92	17.57
CV	0.62	0.49	—
Max	49	52	+21
Min	0	7	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.79	18.79	+6.00
SD	18.43	11.81	25.74
CV	0.74	0.63	—
Max	59	38	+52
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.79	28.50	-10.71
SD	9.86	16.94	20.41
CV	0.55	0.59	—
Max	35	53	+17
Min	0	0	-48

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
Total	—	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.93	20.14	+5.79
SD	15.83	12.01	10.53
CV	0.61	0.60	—
Max	52	49	+23
Min	0	7	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.50	18.21	+10.29
SD	14.04	14.14	17.72
CV	0.49	0.78	—
Max	58	50	+46
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	11	7.27	+3.73
2	Oakland Raiders	10	6.93	+3.07
3	Buffalo Bills	7.5	6.93	+0.57
4	Boston Patriots	7.5	7.33	+0.17
5	Houston Oilers	6	7.15	-1.15

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	2.5	6.44	-3.94
2	Kansas City Chiefs	6	7.30	-1.30
3	New York Jets	5.5	6.66	-1.16
4	Houston Oilers	6	7.15	-1.15
5	Boston Patriots	7.5	7.33	+0.17

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Oakland Raiders	8	Oct 20 – Dec 22	1 in 314
2	San Diego Chargers	4	Nov 2 – Dec 1	1 in 37
3	Buffalo Bills	3	Oct 26 – Nov 9	1 in 7
4	Houston Oilers	3	Oct 13 – Oct 27	1 in 7
5	New York Jets	3	Sep 22 – Oct 5	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	7	Nov 3 – Dec 22	1 in 110
2	Kansas City Chiefs	5	Oct 13 – Nov 8	1 in 102
3	Houston Oilers	4	Dec 1 – Dec 22	1 in 20
4	Oakland Raiders	4	Sep 22 – Oct 11	1 in 12
5	New York Jets	3	Dec 8 – Dec 22	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Boston Patriots	30.70%	26.91%	22.95%	19.44%
Houston Oilers	27.18%	26.44%	24.25%	22.13%
Buffalo Bills	23.65%	24.21%	25.61%	26.53%
New York Jets	18.47%	22.44%	27.19%	31.90%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	30.33%	26.80%	23.14%	19.73%
San Diego Chargers	29.77%	27.04%	24.27%	18.92%
Oakland Raiders	23.77%	25.15%	25.53%	25.55%
Denver Broncos	16.13%	21.01%	27.06%	35.80%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Boston Patriots	16.16%	14.77%	13.76%	13.15%	11.28%	11.32%	10.63%	8.93%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.92%	13.93%	13.55%	12.65%	12.66%	11.10%	10.66%	9.53%
San Diego Chargers	15.08%	14.33%	13.72%	12.88%	12.23%	11.69%	10.92%	9.15%
Houston Oilers	13.64%	13.62%	12.89%	13.26%	12.71%	12.00%	11.33%	10.55%
Buffalo Bills	11.82%	12.22%	12.26%	12.15%	12.60%	13.20%	12.57%	13.18%
Oakland Raiders	11.49%	12.03%	12.59%	11.97%	12.84%	12.70%	13.02%	13.36%
New York Jets	8.93%	10.06%	11.10%	11.97%	13.45%	13.80%	14.79%	15.90%
Denver Broncos	6.96%	9.04%	10.13%	11.97%	12.23%	14.19%	16.08%	19.40%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Boston Patriots	30.70%	69.30%
Houston Oilers	27.18%	72.82%
Buffalo Bills	23.65%	76.35%
New York Jets	18.47%	81.53%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	30.33%	69.67%
San Diego Chargers	29.77%	70.23%
Oakland Raiders	23.77%	76.23%
Denver Broncos	16.13%	83.87%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	29.77%	17.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	30.33%	16.00%
Boston Patriots	30.70%	15.65%
Houston Oilers	27.18%	12.83%
Oakland Raiders	23.77%	12.61%
Buffalo Bills	23.65%	11.46%
New York Jets	18.47%	7.88%
Denver Broncos	16.13%	6.54%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots			3.05%		4.81%		3.60%	4.19%
Buffalo Bills			2.33%		3.44%		2.42%	3.27%
Denver Broncos	1.86%	1.46%		1.58%		1.64%
Houston Oilers			2.58%		3.71%		3.20%	3.34%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.78%	3.69%		4.46%		3.07%
New York Jets			1.63%		2.37%		1.94%	1.94%
Oakland Raiders	3.72%	2.88%		3.48%		2.53%
San Diego Chargers	4.69%	4.16%		4.83%		3.35%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills	44.71%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		44.71%
San Diego Chargers	55.29%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Diego Chargers 55.29% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.29%

Buffalo Bills 44.71% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.71%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1963-09-08	New York Jets	W 38-14	1505.96	1487.28	64.70%	30.17%	+5.01	1-0
1963-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-17	1510.97	1498.99	34.01%	60.82%	-2.30	1-1
1963-09-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-14	1508.67	1494.85	34.25%	60.58%	+4.89	2-1
1963-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1513.56	1479.69	36.89%	57.92%	-2.48	2-2
1963-10-05	@ New York Jets	L 24-31	1511.08	1487.41	35.53%	59.28%	-3.16	2-3
1963-10-11	Oakland Raiders	W 20-14	1507.92	1484.24	65.30%	29.57%	+2.45	3-3
1963-10-18	Denver Broncos	W 40-21	1510.37	1481.06	65.98%	28.90%	+4.27	4-3
1963-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-28	1514.64	1494.77	35.03%	59.79%	-3.12	4-4
1963-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 45-3	1511.52	1523.12	60.87%	33.96%	+7.42	5-4
1963-11-10	San Diego Chargers	L 6-7	1518.94	1523.87	61.73%	33.11%	-2.03	5-5
1963-11-17	Kansas City Chiefs	T 24-24	1516.91	1497.32	64.81%	30.06%	-0.28	5-5
1963-12-01	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1516.63	1497.61	64.74%	30.13%	+3.22	6-5
1963-12-08	@ Houston Oilers	W 46-28	1519.85	1512.14	33.46%	61.37%	+8.58	7-5
1963-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-35	1528.43	1498.00	36.43%	58.38%	-6.93	7-6
1963-09-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-14	1502.13	1496.75	33.16%	61.68%	-2.24	0-1
1963-09-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-35	1499.89	1490.03	33.74%	61.10%	-4.83	0-2
1963-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	T 27-27	1495.06	1528.34	58.00%	36.81%	-0.17	0-2
1963-09-28	Houston Oilers	L 20-31	1494.89	1506.62	60.85%	33.98%	-6.65	0-3
1963-10-05	Oakland Raiders	W 12-0	1488.24	1488.03	62.39%	32.45%	+3.80	1-3
1963-10-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-26	1492.04	1528.80	28.03%	66.86%	+6.60	2-3
1963-10-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-28	1498.64	1514.33	30.54%	64.33%	-3.87	2-4
1963-10-26	Boston Patriots	W 28-21	1494.77	1514.64	59.79%	35.03%	+3.12	3-4
1963-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-28	1497.89	1477.04	35.16%	59.66%	+2.78	4-4
1963-11-09	Denver Broncos	W 27-17	1500.67	1474.26	65.63%	29.25%	+3.14	5-4
1963-11-17	San Diego Chargers	L 13-23	1503.81	1525.91	59.49%	35.33%	-6.20	5-5
1963-12-01	@ Boston Patriots	L 7-17	1497.61	1516.63	30.13%	64.74%	-3.23	5-6
1963-12-08	New York Jets	W 45-14	1494.38	1477.44	64.48%	30.38%	+5.73	6-6
1963-12-14	@ New York Jets	W 19-10	1500.11	1471.72	36.16%	58.66%	+5.80	7-6
1963-09-07	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-59	1496.40	1514.06	60.08%	34.75%	-14.28	0-1
1963-09-14	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1482.12	1507.39	29.38%	65.49%	-2.43	0-2
1963-09-29	Boston Patriots	W 14-10	1479.69	1513.56	57.92%	36.89%	+2.48	1-2
1963-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 50-34	1482.17	1505.82	59.29%	35.53%	+4.78	2-2
1963-10-13	Houston Oilers	L 24-33	1486.95	1508.44	59.57%	35.25%	-5.89	2-3
1963-10-18	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-40	1481.06	1510.37	28.90%	65.98%	-4.27	2-4
1963-10-26	@ New York Jets	T 35-35	1476.79	1483.08	31.69%	63.16%	+0.25	2-4
1963-11-03	Buffalo Bills	L 28-30	1477.04	1497.89	59.66%	35.16%	-2.78	2-5
1963-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-27	1474.26	1500.67	29.25%	65.63%	-3.13	2-6
1963-11-17	New York Jets	L 9-14	1471.13	1467.86	62.78%	32.07%	-4.62	2-7
1963-11-28	Oakland Raiders	L 10-26	1466.51	1499.54	58.03%	36.78%	-7.65	2-8
1963-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-52	1458.86	1492.64	28.38%	66.51%	-5.36	2-9
1963-12-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 31-35	1453.50	1511.77	25.61%	69.32%	-1.74	2-10
1963-12-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-58	1451.76	1537.64	22.72%	72.27%	-4.78	2-11
1963-09-07	Oakland Raiders	L 13-24	1514.62	1482.79	66.28%	28.61%	-7.23	0-1
1963-09-14	Denver Broncos	W 20-14	1507.39	1482.12	65.49%	29.38%	+2.44	1-1
1963-09-22	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1509.83	1482.27	36.05%	58.77%	-3.21	1-2
1963-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-20	1506.62	1494.89	33.98%	60.85%	+6.65	2-2
1963-10-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-28	1513.27	1523.97	31.15%	63.71%	-4.83	2-3
1963-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 33-24	1508.44	1486.95	35.25%	59.57%	+5.89	3-3
1963-10-20	Buffalo Bills	W 28-14	1514.33	1498.64	64.33%	30.54%	+3.87	4-3
1963-10-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-7	1518.20	1512.44	63.09%	31.76%	+4.92	5-3
1963-11-01	@ Boston Patriots	L 3-45	1523.12	1511.52	33.96%	60.87%	-7.42	5-4
1963-11-10	New York Jets	W 31-27	1515.70	1469.70	67.93%	26.98%	+1.83	6-4
1963-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-27	1517.53	1532.11	30.67%	64.19%	-5.39	6-5
1963-12-08	Boston Patriots	L 28-46	1512.14	1519.85	61.37%	33.46%	-8.58	6-6
1963-12-15	San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1503.56	1532.92	58.53%	36.29%	-4.72	6-7
1963-12-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 49-52	1498.84	1513.52	30.66%	64.20%	-1.80	6-8
1963-09-07	@ Denver Broncos	W 59-7	1514.06	1496.40	34.75%	60.08%	+14.28	1-0
1963-09-22	@ Buffalo Bills	T 27-27	1528.34	1495.06	36.81%	58.00%	+0.17	1-0
1963-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1528.51	1501.28	36.00%	58.81%	-4.54	1-1
1963-10-06	Houston Oilers	W 28-7	1523.97	1513.27	63.71%	31.15%	+4.83	2-1
1963-10-13	Buffalo Bills	L 26-35	1528.80	1492.04	66.86%	28.03%	-6.60	2-2
1963-10-20	San Diego Chargers	L 17-38	1522.20	1503.14	64.74%	30.13%	-9.76	2-3
1963-10-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-28	1512.44	1518.20	31.76%	63.09%	-4.92	2-4
1963-11-03	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-10	1507.52	1489.33	34.81%	60.01%	-2.03	2-5
1963-11-08	Oakland Raiders	L 7-22	1505.49	1491.36	64.13%	30.73%	-8.17	2-6
1963-11-17	@ Boston Patriots	T 24-24	1497.32	1516.91	30.06%	64.81%	+0.28	2-6
1963-12-01	@ New York Jets	L 0-17	1497.60	1472.49	35.72%	59.09%	-4.96	2-7
1963-12-08	Denver Broncos	W 52-21	1492.64	1458.86	66.51%	28.38%	+5.36	3-7
1963-12-14	Boston Patriots	W 35-3	1498.00	1528.43	58.38%	36.43%	+6.93	4-7
1963-12-22	New York Jets	W 48-0	1504.93	1465.92	67.12%	27.77%	+6.53	5-7
1963-09-08	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-38	1487.28	1505.96	30.17%	64.70%	-5.01	0-1
1963-09-22	Houston Oilers	W 24-17	1482.27	1509.83	58.77%	36.05%	+3.21	1-1
1963-09-28	Oakland Raiders	W 10-7	1485.48	1489.97	61.79%	33.05%	+1.93	2-1
1963-10-05	Boston Patriots	W 31-24	1487.41	1511.08	59.28%	35.53%	+3.17	3-1
1963-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1490.58	1501.03	31.18%	63.68%	-2.11	3-2
1963-10-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-49	1488.47	1481.78	33.33%	61.51%	-5.39	3-3
1963-10-26	Denver Broncos	T 35-35	1483.08	1476.79	63.16%	31.69%	-0.26	3-3
1963-11-02	San Diego Chargers	L 7-53	1482.82	1510.75	58.72%	36.10%	-13.12	3-4
1963-11-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 27-31	1469.70	1515.70	26.98%	67.93%	-1.84	3-5
1963-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 14-9	1467.86	1471.13	32.07%	62.78%	+4.63	4-5
1963-12-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-0	1472.49	1497.60	59.09%	35.72%	+4.95	5-5
1963-12-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-45	1477.44	1494.38	30.38%	64.48%	-5.72	5-6
1963-12-14	Buffalo Bills	L 10-19	1471.72	1500.11	58.66%	36.16%	-5.80	5-7
1963-12-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-48	1465.92	1504.93	27.77%	67.12%	-6.53	5-8
1963-09-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-13	1482.79	1514.62	28.61%	66.28%	+7.24	1-0
1963-09-15	Buffalo Bills	W 35-17	1490.03	1499.89	61.10%	33.74%	+4.82	2-0
1963-09-22	Boston Patriots	L 14-20	1494.85	1508.67	60.58%	34.25%	-4.88	2-1
1963-09-28	@ New York Jets	L 7-10	1489.97	1485.48	33.05%	61.79%	-1.94	2-2
1963-10-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-12	1488.03	1488.24	32.45%	62.39%	-3.79	2-3
1963-10-11	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-20	1484.24	1507.92	29.57%	65.30%	-2.46	2-4
1963-10-20	New York Jets	W 49-26	1481.78	1488.47	61.51%	33.33%	+5.40	3-4
1963-10-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-33	1487.18	1512.90	29.33%	65.55%	+2.15	4-4
1963-11-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 10-7	1489.33	1507.52	60.01%	34.81%	+2.03	5-4
1963-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-7	1491.36	1505.49	30.73%	64.13%	+8.18	6-4
1963-11-28	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-10	1499.54	1466.51	36.78%	58.03%	+7.65	7-4
1963-12-08	San Diego Chargers	W 41-27	1507.19	1537.50	58.40%	36.41%	+4.58	8-4
1963-12-15	Denver Broncos	W 35-31	1511.77	1453.50	69.32%	25.61%	+1.75	9-4
1963-12-22	Houston Oilers	W 52-49	1513.52	1498.84	64.20%	30.66%	+1.79	10-4
1963-09-08	Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1496.75	1502.13	61.68%	33.16%	+2.24	1-0
1963-09-14	Boston Patriots	W 17-13	1498.99	1510.97	60.82%	34.01%	+2.29	2-0
1963-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-10	1501.28	1528.51	58.81%	36.00%	+4.54	3-0
1963-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 34-50	1505.82	1482.17	35.53%	59.29%	-4.79	3-1
1963-10-13	New York Jets	W 24-20	1501.03	1490.58	63.68%	31.18%	+2.11	4-1
1963-10-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-17	1503.14	1522.20	30.13%	64.74%	+9.76	5-1
1963-10-27	Oakland Raiders	L 33-34	1512.90	1487.18	65.55%	29.33%	-2.15	5-2
1963-11-02	@ New York Jets	W 53-7	1510.75	1482.82	36.10%	58.72%	+13.12	6-2
1963-11-10	@ Boston Patriots	W 7-6	1523.87	1518.94	33.11%	61.73%	+2.04	7-2
1963-11-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-13	1525.91	1503.81	35.33%	59.49%	+6.20	8-2
1963-12-01	Houston Oilers	W 27-0	1532.11	1517.53	64.19%	30.67%	+5.39	9-2
1963-12-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-41	1537.50	1507.19	36.41%	58.40%	-4.58	9-3
1963-12-15	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-14	1532.92	1503.56	36.29%	58.53%	+4.72	10-3
1963-12-22	Denver Broncos	W 58-20	1537.64	1451.76	72.27%	22.72%	+4.77	11-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1963-12-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 26-8	1521.50	1505.91	36.89%	63.11%	+8.43	1-0
1964-01-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-51	1529.93	1542.41	33.21%	66.79%	-6.70	1-1
1963-12-28	Boston Patriots	L 8-26	1505.91	1521.50	63.11%	36.89%	-8.44	0-1
1964-01-05	Boston Patriots	W 51-10	1542.41	1529.93	66.79%	33.21%	+6.70	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1963-10-13	28.03%	Buffalo Bills	1492.04	35	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1528.80	26
2	1963-09-07	28.61%	Oakland Raiders	1482.79	24	@ Houston Oilers	1514.62	13
3	1963-10-27	29.33%	Oakland Raiders	1487.18	34	@ San Diego Chargers	1512.90	33
4	1963-10-20	30.13%	San Diego Chargers	1503.14	38	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1522.20	17
5	1963-11-08	30.73%	Oakland Raiders	1491.36	22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1505.49	7
6	1963-11-17	32.07%	New York Jets	1467.86	14	@ Denver Broncos	1471.13	9
7	1963-11-10	33.11%	San Diego Chargers	1523.87	7	@ Boston Patriots	1518.94	6
8	1963-12-08	33.46%	Boston Patriots	1519.85	46	@ Houston Oilers	1512.14	28
9	1963-09-28	33.98%	Houston Oilers	1506.62	31	@ Buffalo Bills	1494.89	20
10	1963-09-22	34.25%	Boston Patriots	1508.67	20	@ Oakland Raiders	1494.85	14
11	1963-09-07	34.75%	Kansas City Chiefs	1514.06	59	@ Denver Broncos	1496.40	7
12	1963-11-03	35.16%	Buffalo Bills	1497.89	30	@ Denver Broncos	1477.04	28
13	1963-10-13	35.25%	Houston Oilers	1508.44	33	@ Denver Broncos	1486.95	24
14	1963-11-17	35.33%	San Diego Chargers	1525.91	23	@ Buffalo Bills	1503.81	13
15	1963-11-02	36.10%	San Diego Chargers	1510.75	53	@ New York Jets	1482.82	7
16	1963-12-14	36.16%	Buffalo Bills	1500.11	19	@ New York Jets	1471.72	10
17	1963-12-15	36.29%	San Diego Chargers	1532.92	20	@ Houston Oilers	1503.56	14
18	1963-11-28	36.78%	Oakland Raiders	1499.54	26	@ Denver Broncos	1466.51	10
19	1963-12-28 *	36.89%	Boston Patriots	1521.50	26	@ Buffalo Bills	1505.91	8

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1963-09-07	14.28	Kansas City Chiefs	59	1514.06	34.75%	@ Denver Broncos	7	1496.40	60.08%
2	1963-11-02	13.12	San Diego Chargers	53	1510.75	36.10%	@ New York Jets	7	1482.82	58.72%
3	1963-10-20	9.76	San Diego Chargers	38	1503.14	30.13%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	1522.20	64.74%
4	1963-12-08	8.58	Boston Patriots	46	1519.85	33.46%	@ Houston Oilers	28	1512.14	61.37%
5	1963-12-28 *	8.44	Boston Patriots	26	1521.50	36.89%	@ Buffalo Bills	8	1505.91	63.11%
6	1963-11-08	8.18	Oakland Raiders	22	1491.36	30.73%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1505.49	64.13%
7	1963-11-28	7.65	Oakland Raiders	26	1499.54	36.78%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1466.51	58.03%
8	1963-11-01	7.42	@ Boston Patriots	45	1511.52	60.87%	Houston Oilers	3	1523.12	33.96%
9	1963-09-07	7.24	Oakland Raiders	24	1482.79	28.61%	@ Houston Oilers	13	1514.62	66.28%
10	1963-12-14	6.93	@ Kansas City Chiefs	35	1498.00	58.38%	Boston Patriots	3	1528.43	36.43%
11	1964-01-05 *	6.70	@ San Diego Chargers	51	1542.41	66.79%	Boston Patriots	10	1529.93	33.21%
12	1963-09-28	6.65	Houston Oilers	31	1506.62	33.98%	@ Buffalo Bills	20	1494.89	60.85%
13	1963-10-13	6.60	Buffalo Bills	35	1492.04	28.03%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	26	1528.80	66.86%
14	1963-12-22	6.53	@ Kansas City Chiefs	48	1504.93	67.12%	New York Jets	0	1465.92	27.77%
15	1963-11-17	6.20	San Diego Chargers	23	1525.91	35.33%	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1503.81	59.49%
16	1963-10-13	5.89	Houston Oilers	33	1508.44	35.25%	@ Denver Broncos	24	1486.95	59.57%
17	1963-12-14	5.80	Buffalo Bills	19	1500.11	36.16%	@ New York Jets	10	1471.72	58.66%
18	1963-12-08	5.73	@ Buffalo Bills	45	1494.38	64.48%	New York Jets	14	1477.44	30.38%
19	1963-10-20	5.40	@ Oakland Raiders	49	1481.78	61.51%	New York Jets	26	1488.47	33.33%
20	1963-12-01	5.39	@ San Diego Chargers	27	1532.11	64.19%	Houston Oilers	0	1517.53	30.67%
21	1963-12-08	5.36	@ Kansas City Chiefs	52	1492.64	66.51%	Denver Broncos	21	1458.86	28.38%
22	1963-09-08	5.01	@ Boston Patriots	38	1505.96	64.70%	New York Jets	14	1487.28	30.17%
23	1963-12-01	4.96	@ New York Jets	17	1472.49	59.09%	Kansas City Chiefs	0	1497.60	35.72%
24	1963-10-27	4.92	@ Houston Oilers	28	1518.20	63.09%	Kansas City Chiefs	7	1512.44	31.76%
25	1963-09-22	4.89	Boston Patriots	20	1508.67	34.25%	@ Oakland Raiders	14	1494.85	60.58%