1961 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Houston Oilers

2nd Title

Last Title: 1960

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1960

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

4.28 wins above expected

12 wins · 7.72 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Oakland Raiders

4.37 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.37 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	10	3	1	.750	—	513	242	+271	7.62	+2.88
2	Boston Patriots	9	4	1	.679	1	413	313	+100	6.95	+2.55
3	New York Titans	7	7	0	.500	3.5	301	390	-89	6.81	+0.19
4	Buffalo Bills	6	8	0	.429	4.5	294	342	-48	6.84	-0.84

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	12	2	.857	—	396	219	+177	7.72	+4.28
2	Dallas Texans	6	8	.429	6	334	343	-9	7.22	-1.22
3	Denver Broncos	3	11	.214	9	251	432	-181	6.47	-3.47
4	Oakland Raiders	2	12	.143	10	237	458	-221	6.37	-4.37

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Houston Oilers 10

San Diego Chargers 3

Dec 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Houston Oilers	East	1560	10.5	7.62	+2.88	98.76%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
San Diego Chargers	West	1545	12	7.72	+4.28	99.74%	0	5	6	8	9	11	14
Boston Patriots	East	1517	9.5	6.95	+2.55	97.70%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Dallas Texans	West	1504	6	7.22	-1.22	37.96%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	East	1487	6	6.84	-0.84	46.09%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
New York Titans	East	1486	7	6.81	+0.19	67.57%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Denver Broncos	West	1453	3	6.47	-3.47	6.08%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Oakland Raiders	West	1447	2	6.37	-4.37	1.76%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Boston Patriots	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Titans	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Titans	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Dallas Texans	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Denver Broncos	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Dallas Texans	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	0.89%	—	—	1.79%	1.79%	4.46%
7–13	—	—	1.79%	6.25%	2.68%	1.79%	2.68%	15.18%
14–20	0.89%	1.79%	5.36%	3.57%	2.68%	—	3.57%	17.86%
21–27	—	6.25%	3.57%	8.93%	3.57%	2.68%	2.68%	27.68%
28–34	—	2.68%	2.68%	3.57%	1.79%	2.68%	—	13.39%
35–41	1.79%	1.79%	—	2.68%	2.68%	—	0.89%	9.82%
42+	1.79%	2.68%	3.57%	2.68%	—	0.89%	—	11.61%
Total	4.46%	15.18%	17.86%	27.68%	13.39%	9.82%	11.61%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.46	24.46	+0.00
SD	12.47	12.47	21.11
CV	0.51	0.51	—
Max	55	55	+55
Min	0	0	-55

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	—	21.43%	50.00%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.50	22.36	+7.14
SD	10.70	9.42	15.94
CV	0.36	0.42	—
Max	52	38	+41
Min	15	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	50.00%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	24.43	-3.43
SD	8.61	10.06	12.74
CV	0.41	0.41	—
Max	41	52	+13
Min	10	10	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
Total	—	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	—	100%

Dallas Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.86	24.50	-0.64
SD	13.61	7.65	17.46
CV	0.57	0.31	—
Max	49	38	+32
Min	7	11	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.93	30.86	-12.93
SD	7.77	14.25	17.91
CV	0.43	0.46	—
Max	28	55	+17
Min	0	10	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	36.64	17.29	+19.36
SD	13.47	8.99	20.16
CV	0.37	0.52	—
Max	55	34	+55
Min	12	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	100%

New York Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	27.86	-6.36
SD	8.90	14.97	17.96
CV	0.41	0.54	—
Max	37	49	+21
Min	10	6	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	28.57%	—	14.29%	35.71%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.93	32.71	-15.79
SD	11.32	12.65	19.94
CV	0.67	0.39	—
Max	35	55	+14
Min	0	14	-55

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.29	15.64	+12.64
SD	13.13	11.74	22.42
CV	0.46	0.75	—
Max	48	41	+44
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	12	7.72	+4.28
2	Houston Oilers	10.5	7.62	+2.88
3	Boston Patriots	9.5	6.95	+2.55
4	New York Titans	7	6.81	+0.19
5	Buffalo Bills	6	6.84	-0.84

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	2	6.37	-4.37
2	Denver Broncos	3	6.47	-3.47
3	Dallas Texans	6	7.22	-1.22
4	Buffalo Bills	6	6.84	-0.84
5	New York Titans	7	6.81	+0.19

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Chargers	11	Sep 10 – Nov 19	1 in 1,024
2	Houston Oilers	9	Oct 22 – Dec 17	1 in 229
3	Boston Patriots	4	Nov 17 – Dec 17	1 in 18
4	Dallas Texans	3	Sep 24 – Oct 8	1 in 8
5	Buffalo Bills	2	Oct 8 – Oct 15	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	7	Oct 29 – Dec 10	1 in 68
2	Dallas Texans	6	Oct 15 – Nov 19	1 in 65
3	Oakland Raiders	6	Nov 11 – Dec 17	1 in 37
4	Buffalo Bills	3	Oct 22 – Nov 5	1 in 9
5	Houston Oilers	3	Sep 24 – Oct 8	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Oilers	35.80%	27.06%	21.30%	15.84%
Boston Patriots	22.72%	24.98%	25.63%	26.67%
Buffalo Bills	21.00%	24.01%	26.70%	28.29%
New York Titans	20.48%	23.95%	26.37%	29.20%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	40.14%	26.15%	20.09%	13.62%
Dallas Texans	27.95%	28.55%	24.52%	18.98%
Denver Broncos	16.65%	23.23%	27.56%	32.56%
Oakland Raiders	15.26%	22.07%	27.83%	34.84%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
San Diego Chargers	21.26%	16.48%	14.37%	12.80%	10.89%	9.65%	8.00%	6.55%
Houston Oilers	19.59%	15.79%	14.40%	13.05%	11.94%	9.86%	8.97%	6.40%
Dallas Texans	13.85%	14.39%	13.42%	12.87%	12.92%	11.83%	11.11%	9.61%
Boston Patriots	10.93%	12.47%	12.60%	12.88%	13.07%	12.99%	12.48%	12.58%
Buffalo Bills	10.19%	11.48%	12.40%	12.42%	13.28%	13.56%	13.37%	13.30%
New York Titans	9.76%	11.43%	12.35%	12.82%	12.99%	13.32%	13.58%	13.75%
Denver Broncos	7.88%	9.41%	10.31%	11.31%	12.37%	14.43%	15.99%	18.30%
Oakland Raiders	6.54%	8.55%	10.15%	11.85%	12.54%	14.36%	16.50%	19.51%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Houston Oilers	35.80%	64.20%
Boston Patriots	22.72%	77.28%
Buffalo Bills	21.00%	79.00%
New York Titans	20.48%	79.52%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	40.14%	59.86%
Dallas Texans	27.95%	72.05%
Denver Broncos	16.65%	83.35%
Oakland Raiders	15.26%	84.74%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	40.14%	21.45%
Houston Oilers	35.80%	20.47%
Dallas Texans	27.95%	13.31%
Boston Patriots	22.72%	11.94%
Buffalo Bills	21.00%	10.28%
New York Titans	20.48%	9.76%
Denver Broncos	16.65%	6.70%
Oakland Raiders	15.26%	6.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Dallas Texans	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	New York Titans	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots			3.42%	2.26%			2.16%	4.10%
Buffalo Bills			2.89%	1.72%			1.79%	3.88%
Dallas Texans	2.84%	2.91%			4.51%	3.05%
Denver Broncos	1.49%	1.32%			2.22%	1.67%
Houston Oilers			5.72%	3.99%			3.52%	7.24%
New York Titans			2.61%	1.98%			1.70%	3.47%
Oakland Raiders	1.57%	1.33%			1.96%	1.23%
San Diego Chargers	4.88%	5.16%			6.64%	4.77%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Houston Oilers	51.86%	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	48.14%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	San Diego Chargers
Houston Oilers		51.86%
San Diego Chargers	48.14%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Houston Oilers 51.86% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.86%

San Diego Chargers 48.14% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.14%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-09-09	New York Titans	L 20-21	1492.19	1497.86	52.52%	45.23%	-1.31	0-1
1961-09-16	Denver Broncos	W 45-17	1490.88	1495.34	52.70%	45.06%	+5.98	1-1
1961-09-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-21	1496.86	1495.66	44.59%	53.16%	+1.88	2-1
1961-10-01	@ New York Titans	L 30-37	1498.74	1498.46	44.46%	53.29%	-2.95	2-2
1961-10-07	San Diego Chargers	L 27-38	1495.79	1524.68	49.19%	48.56%	-4.09	2-3
1961-10-13	Houston Oilers	T 31-31	1491.70	1511.28	50.53%	47.22%	-0.02	2-3
1961-10-22	Buffalo Bills	W 52-21	1491.68	1496.84	52.60%	45.16%	+6.31	3-3
1961-10-29	@ Dallas Texans	W 18-17	1497.99	1506.81	43.17%	54.58%	+1.37	4-3
1961-11-03	Dallas Texans	W 28-21	1499.36	1505.45	52.46%	45.29%	+3.00	5-3
1961-11-12	@ Houston Oilers	L 15-27	1502.36	1529.44	40.61%	57.14%	-3.53	5-4
1961-11-17	Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1498.83	1467.03	57.79%	39.96%	+1.74	6-4
1961-12-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-24	1500.57	1461.08	50.08%	47.67%	+2.39	7-4
1961-12-09	@ Oakland Raiders	W 35-21	1502.96	1456.80	51.04%	46.71%	+4.38	8-4
1961-12-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-0	1507.34	1554.56	37.85%	59.91%	+9.59	9-4
1961-09-10	Denver Broncos	L 10-22	1496.75	1490.64	54.20%	43.55%	-4.69	0-1
1961-09-17	New York Titans	W 41-31	1492.06	1499.17	52.32%	45.43%	+3.60	1-1
1961-09-23	Boston Patriots	L 21-23	1495.66	1496.86	53.16%	44.59%	-1.88	1-2
1961-09-30	San Diego Chargers	L 11-19	1493.78	1521.18	49.41%	48.34%	-3.50	1-3
1961-10-08	@ Houston Oilers	W 22-12	1490.28	1515.78	40.83%	56.92%	+4.50	2-3
1961-10-15	Dallas Texans	W 27-24	1494.78	1515.11	50.42%	47.33%	+2.06	3-3
1961-10-22	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-52	1496.84	1491.68	45.16%	52.60%	-6.31	3-4
1961-10-29	Houston Oilers	L 16-28	1490.53	1517.54	49.46%	48.29%	-4.30	3-5
1961-11-05	Oakland Raiders	L 22-31	1486.23	1466.30	56.14%	41.61%	-4.21	3-6
1961-11-12	@ Dallas Texans	W 30-20	1482.02	1502.44	41.54%	56.21%	+4.44	4-6
1961-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-10	1486.46	1470.53	46.70%	51.05%	+4.61	5-6
1961-11-23	@ New York Titans	L 14-21	1491.07	1487.37	44.95%	52.80%	-2.98	5-7
1961-12-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 26-21	1488.09	1459.56	48.51%	49.25%	+2.76	6-7
1961-12-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-28	1490.85	1550.69	36.15%	61.60%	-3.87	6-8
1961-09-10	San Diego Chargers	L 10-26	1511.46	1505.40	54.19%	43.56%	-5.43	0-1
1961-09-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 42-35	1506.03	1477.00	48.58%	49.17%	+3.26	1-1
1961-10-01	Houston Oilers	W 26-21	1509.29	1518.34	52.04%	45.71%	+2.57	2-1
1961-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-12	1511.86	1482.11	48.68%	49.07%	+3.25	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1515.11	1494.78	47.33%	50.42%	-2.05	3-2
1961-10-22	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-38	1513.06	1511.30	44.67%	53.08%	-6.25	3-3
1961-10-29	Boston Patriots	L 17-18	1506.81	1497.99	54.58%	43.17%	-1.36	3-4
1961-11-03	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-28	1505.45	1499.36	45.29%	52.46%	-3.01	3-5
1961-11-12	Buffalo Bills	L 20-30	1502.44	1482.02	56.21%	41.54%	-4.45	3-6
1961-11-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-24	1497.99	1552.94	36.81%	60.95%	-2.93	3-7
1961-11-26	Oakland Raiders	W 43-11	1495.06	1465.29	57.51%	40.24%	+5.73	4-7
1961-12-03	@ New York Titans	L 7-28	1500.79	1490.36	45.91%	51.84%	-5.28	4-8
1961-12-10	Denver Broncos	W 49-21	1495.51	1458.69	58.49%	39.27%	+5.23	5-8
1961-12-17	New York Titans	W 35-24	1500.74	1489.68	54.90%	42.85%	+3.57	6-8
1961-09-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 22-10	1490.64	1496.75	43.55%	54.20%	+4.70	1-0
1961-09-16	@ Boston Patriots	L 17-45	1495.34	1490.88	45.06%	52.70%	-5.99	1-1
1961-09-24	@ New York Titans	L 28-35	1489.35	1495.57	43.54%	54.21%	-2.89	1-2
1961-10-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 19-33	1486.46	1473.74	46.23%	51.52%	-4.35	1-3
1961-10-08	Dallas Texans	L 12-19	1482.11	1511.86	49.07%	48.68%	-3.25	1-4
1961-10-15	Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1478.86	1478.09	53.44%	44.31%	+1.93	2-4
1961-10-22	New York Titans	W 27-10	1480.79	1496.62	51.07%	46.68%	+4.83	3-4
1961-10-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-37	1485.62	1539.87	36.90%	60.85%	-5.66	3-5
1961-11-05	Houston Oilers	L 14-55	1479.96	1521.84	47.33%	50.42%	-7.60	3-6
1961-11-12	San Diego Chargers	L 16-19	1472.36	1551.11	42.08%	55.67%	-1.83	3-7
1961-11-19	Buffalo Bills	L 10-23	1470.53	1486.46	51.05%	46.70%	-4.61	3-8
1961-11-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-45	1465.92	1538.85	34.43%	63.32%	-4.84	3-9
1961-12-03	Boston Patriots	L 24-28	1461.08	1500.57	47.67%	50.08%	-2.39	3-10
1961-12-10	@ Dallas Texans	L 21-49	1458.69	1495.51	39.27%	58.49%	-5.23	3-11
1961-09-09	Oakland Raiders	W 55-0	1514.23	1491.47	56.54%	41.21%	+7.69	1-0
1961-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-34	1521.92	1517.60	45.04%	52.72%	-3.58	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Dallas Texans	L 21-26	1518.34	1509.29	45.71%	52.04%	-2.56	1-2
1961-10-08	Buffalo Bills	L 12-22	1515.78	1490.28	56.92%	40.83%	-4.50	1-3
1961-10-13	@ Boston Patriots	T 31-31	1511.28	1491.70	47.22%	50.53%	+0.02	1-3
1961-10-22	Dallas Texans	W 38-7	1511.30	1513.06	53.08%	44.67%	+6.24	2-3
1961-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-16	1517.54	1490.53	48.29%	49.46%	+4.30	3-3
1961-11-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 55-14	1521.84	1479.96	50.42%	47.33%	+7.60	4-3
1961-11-12	Boston Patriots	W 27-15	1529.44	1502.36	57.14%	40.61%	+3.54	5-3
1961-11-19	New York Titans	W 49-13	1532.98	1493.24	58.89%	38.87%	+5.87	6-3
1961-11-26	Denver Broncos	W 45-14	1538.85	1465.92	63.32%	34.43%	+4.84	7-3
1961-12-03	San Diego Chargers	W 33-13	1543.69	1555.87	51.59%	46.16%	+5.18	8-3
1961-12-10	@ New York Titans	W 48-21	1548.87	1495.64	52.05%	45.70%	+5.96	9-3
1961-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	W 47-16	1554.83	1452.42	58.95%	38.80%	+5.44	10-3
1961-09-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 21-20	1497.86	1492.19	45.23%	52.52%	+1.31	1-0
1961-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-41	1499.17	1492.06	45.43%	52.32%	-3.60	1-1
1961-09-24	Denver Broncos	W 35-28	1495.57	1489.35	54.21%	43.54%	+2.89	2-1
1961-10-01	Boston Patriots	W 37-30	1498.46	1498.74	53.29%	44.46%	+2.95	3-1
1961-10-15	San Diego Chargers	L 10-25	1501.41	1528.77	49.41%	48.34%	-4.79	3-2
1961-10-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-27	1496.62	1480.79	46.68%	51.07%	-4.83	3-3
1961-10-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 14-6	1491.79	1469.85	47.56%	50.19%	+3.56	4-3
1961-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-48	1495.35	1545.53	37.45%	60.31%	-5.59	4-4
1961-11-11	Oakland Raiders	W 23-12	1489.76	1470.51	56.05%	41.70%	+3.48	5-4
1961-11-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-49	1493.24	1532.98	38.87%	58.89%	-5.87	5-5
1961-11-23	Buffalo Bills	W 21-14	1487.37	1491.07	52.80%	44.95%	+2.99	6-5
1961-12-03	Dallas Texans	W 28-7	1490.36	1500.79	51.84%	45.91%	+5.28	7-5
1961-12-10	Houston Oilers	L 21-48	1495.64	1548.87	45.70%	52.05%	-5.96	7-6
1961-12-17	@ Dallas Texans	L 24-35	1489.68	1500.74	42.85%	54.90%	-3.58	7-7
1961-09-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-55	1491.47	1514.23	41.21%	56.54%	-7.69	0-1
1961-09-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-44	1483.78	1510.82	40.62%	57.14%	-6.78	0-2
1961-09-24	Dallas Texans	L 35-42	1477.00	1506.03	49.17%	48.58%	-3.26	0-3
1961-10-01	Denver Broncos	W 33-19	1473.74	1486.46	51.52%	46.23%	+4.35	1-3
1961-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1478.09	1478.86	44.31%	53.44%	-1.93	1-4
1961-10-22	San Diego Chargers	L 10-41	1476.16	1533.56	45.10%	52.65%	-6.31	1-5
1961-10-29	New York Titans	L 6-14	1469.85	1491.79	50.19%	47.56%	-3.55	1-6
1961-11-05	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-22	1466.30	1486.23	41.61%	56.14%	+4.21	2-6
1961-11-11	@ New York Titans	L 12-23	1470.51	1489.76	41.70%	56.05%	-3.48	2-7
1961-11-17	@ Boston Patriots	L 17-20	1467.03	1498.83	39.96%	57.79%	-1.74	2-8
1961-11-26	@ Dallas Texans	L 11-43	1465.29	1495.06	40.24%	57.51%	-5.73	2-9
1961-12-03	Buffalo Bills	L 21-26	1459.56	1488.09	49.25%	48.51%	-2.76	2-10
1961-12-09	Boston Patriots	L 21-35	1456.80	1502.96	46.71%	51.04%	-4.38	2-11
1961-12-17	Houston Oilers	L 16-47	1452.42	1554.83	38.80%	58.95%	-5.44	2-12
1961-09-10	@ Dallas Texans	W 26-10	1505.40	1511.46	43.56%	54.19%	+5.42	1-0
1961-09-17	Oakland Raiders	W 44-0	1510.82	1483.78	57.14%	40.62%	+6.78	2-0
1961-09-24	Houston Oilers	W 34-24	1517.60	1521.92	52.72%	45.04%	+3.58	3-0
1961-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-11	1521.18	1493.78	48.34%	49.41%	+3.50	4-0
1961-10-07	@ Boston Patriots	W 38-27	1524.68	1495.79	48.56%	49.19%	+4.09	5-0
1961-10-15	@ New York Titans	W 25-10	1528.77	1501.41	48.34%	49.41%	+4.79	6-0
1961-10-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-10	1533.56	1476.16	52.65%	45.10%	+6.31	7-0
1961-10-29	Denver Broncos	W 37-0	1539.87	1485.62	60.85%	36.90%	+5.66	8-0
1961-11-05	New York Titans	W 48-13	1545.53	1495.35	60.31%	37.45%	+5.58	9-0
1961-11-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1551.11	1472.36	55.67%	42.08%	+1.83	10-0
1961-11-19	Dallas Texans	W 24-14	1552.94	1497.99	60.95%	36.81%	+2.93	11-0
1961-12-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-33	1555.87	1543.69	46.16%	51.59%	-5.18	11-1
1961-12-10	Buffalo Bills	W 28-10	1550.69	1490.85	61.60%	36.15%	+3.87	12-1
1961-12-17	Boston Patriots	L 0-41	1554.56	1507.34	59.91%	37.85%	-9.58	12-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 10-3	1560.27	1544.98	47.73%	52.27%	+3.39	1-0
1961-12-24	Houston Oilers	L 3-10	1544.98	1560.27	52.27%	47.73%	-3.39	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1961-12-17	37.85%	Boston Patriots	1507.34	41	@ San Diego Chargers	1554.56	0
2	1961-10-08	40.83%	Buffalo Bills	1490.28	22	@ Houston Oilers	1515.78	12
3	1961-11-12	41.54%	Buffalo Bills	1482.02	30	@ Dallas Texans	1502.44	20
4	1961-11-05	41.61%	Oakland Raiders	1466.30	31	@ Buffalo Bills	1486.23	22
5	1961-10-29	43.17%	Boston Patriots	1497.99	18	@ Dallas Texans	1506.81	17
6	1961-09-10	43.55%	Denver Broncos	1490.64	22	@ Buffalo Bills	1496.75	10
7	1961-09-10	43.56%	San Diego Chargers	1505.40	26	@ Dallas Texans	1511.46	10
8	1961-09-23	44.59%	Boston Patriots	1496.86	23	@ Buffalo Bills	1495.66	21
9	1961-09-09	45.23%	New York Titans	1497.86	21	@ Boston Patriots	1492.19	20
10	1961-11-19	46.70%	Buffalo Bills	1486.46	23	@ Denver Broncos	1470.53	10
11	1961-10-29	47.56%	New York Titans	1491.79	14	@ Oakland Raiders	1469.85	6
12	1961-12-24 *	47.73%	Houston Oilers	1560.27	10	@ San Diego Chargers	1544.98	3
13	1961-10-29	48.29%	Houston Oilers	1517.54	28	@ Buffalo Bills	1490.53	16
14	1961-09-30	48.34%	San Diego Chargers	1521.18	19	@ Buffalo Bills	1493.78	11
15	1961-10-15	48.34%	San Diego Chargers	1528.77	25	@ New York Titans	1501.41	10
16	1961-12-03	48.51%	Buffalo Bills	1488.09	26	@ Oakland Raiders	1459.56	21
17	1961-10-07	48.56%	San Diego Chargers	1524.68	38	@ Boston Patriots	1495.79	27
18	1961-09-24	48.58%	Dallas Texans	1506.03	42	@ Oakland Raiders	1477.00	35
19	1961-10-08	48.68%	Dallas Texans	1511.86	19	@ Denver Broncos	1482.11	12

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1961-12-17	9.59	Boston Patriots	41	1507.34	37.85%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1554.56	59.91%
2	1961-09-09	7.69	@ Houston Oilers	55	1514.23	56.54%	Oakland Raiders	0	1491.47	41.21%
3	1961-11-05	7.60	Houston Oilers	55	1521.84	50.42%	@ Denver Broncos	14	1479.96	47.33%
4	1961-09-17	6.78	@ San Diego Chargers	44	1510.82	57.14%	Oakland Raiders	0	1483.78	40.62%
5	1961-10-22	6.31	San Diego Chargers	41	1533.56	52.65%	@ Oakland Raiders	10	1476.16	45.10%
6	1961-10-22	6.31	@ Boston Patriots	52	1491.68	52.60%	Buffalo Bills	21	1496.84	45.16%
7	1961-10-22	6.25	@ Houston Oilers	38	1511.30	53.08%	Dallas Texans	7	1513.06	44.67%
8	1961-09-16	5.99	@ Boston Patriots	45	1490.88	52.70%	Denver Broncos	17	1495.34	45.06%
9	1961-12-10	5.96	Houston Oilers	48	1548.87	52.05%	@ New York Titans	21	1495.64	45.70%
10	1961-11-19	5.87	@ Houston Oilers	49	1532.98	58.89%	New York Titans	13	1493.24	38.87%
11	1961-11-26	5.73	@ Dallas Texans	43	1495.06	57.51%	Oakland Raiders	11	1465.29	40.24%
12	1961-10-29	5.66	@ San Diego Chargers	37	1539.87	60.85%	Denver Broncos	0	1485.62	36.90%
13	1961-11-05	5.59	@ San Diego Chargers	48	1545.53	60.31%	New York Titans	13	1495.35	37.45%
14	1961-12-17	5.44	Houston Oilers	47	1554.83	58.95%	@ Oakland Raiders	16	1452.42	38.80%
15	1961-09-10	5.43	San Diego Chargers	26	1505.40	43.56%	@ Dallas Texans	10	1511.46	54.19%
16	1961-12-03	5.28	@ New York Titans	28	1490.36	51.84%	Dallas Texans	7	1500.79	45.91%
17	1961-12-10	5.23	@ Dallas Texans	49	1495.51	58.49%	Denver Broncos	21	1458.69	39.27%
18	1961-12-03	5.18	@ Houston Oilers	33	1543.69	51.59%	San Diego Chargers	13	1555.87	46.16%
19	1961-11-26	4.84	@ Houston Oilers	45	1538.85	63.32%	Denver Broncos	14	1465.92	34.43%
20	1961-10-22	4.83	@ Denver Broncos	27	1480.79	51.07%	New York Titans	10	1496.62	46.68%
21	1961-10-15	4.79	San Diego Chargers	25	1528.77	48.34%	@ New York Titans	10	1501.41	49.41%
22	1961-09-10	4.70	Denver Broncos	22	1490.64	43.55%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1496.75	54.20%
23	1961-11-19	4.61	Buffalo Bills	23	1486.46	46.70%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1470.53	51.05%
24	1961-10-08	4.50	Buffalo Bills	22	1490.28	40.83%	@ Houston Oilers	12	1515.78	56.92%
25	1961-11-12	4.45	Buffalo Bills	30	1482.02	41.54%	@ Dallas Texans	20	1502.44	56.21%