1960 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Houston Oilers

1st Title

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.98 wins above expected

10 wins · 7.02 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

2.47 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.97 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	10	4	0	.714	—	379	285	+94	7.26	+2.74
2	New York Titans	7	7	0	.500	3	382	399	-17	7.03	-0.03
3	Buffalo Bills	5	8	1	.393	4.5	296	303	-7	6.84	-1.34
4	Boston Patriots	5	9	0	.357	5	286	349	-63	6.91	-1.91

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	10	4	0	.714	—	373	336	+37	7.02	+2.98
2	Dallas Texans	8	6	0	.571	2	362	253	+109	7.14	+0.86
3	Oakland Raiders	6	8	0	.429	4	319	388	-69	6.83	-0.83
4	Denver Broncos	4	9	1	.321	5.5	309	393	-84	6.97	-2.47

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Houston Oilers 24

San Diego Chargers 16

Jan 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Houston Oilers	East	1525	10	7.26	+2.74	96.84%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Dallas Texans	West	1519	8	7.14	+0.86	78.53%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Diego Chargers	West	1514	10	7.02	+2.98	97.69%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
New York Titans	East	1496	7	7.03	-0.03	63.58%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Buffalo Bills	East	1494	5.5	6.84	-1.34	46.37%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Oakland Raiders	West	1485	6	6.83	-0.83	46.12%	1	4	5	7	8	10	13
Boston Patriots	East	1485	5	6.91	-1.91	24.85%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Denver Broncos	West	1482	4.5	6.97	-2.47	24.63%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Boston Patriots	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New York Titans	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Titans	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)

Within West

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Dallas Texans	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Dallas Texans	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	1.79%	0.89%	—	6.25%
7–13	0.89%	1.79%	4.46%	3.57%	0.89%	0.89%	0.89%	13.39%
14–20	0.89%	4.46%	3.57%	2.68%	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	16.96%
21–27	1.79%	3.57%	2.68%	7.14%	5.36%	2.68%	0.89%	24.11%
28–34	1.79%	0.89%	1.79%	5.36%	3.57%	1.79%	2.68%	17.86%
35–41	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	2.68%	1.79%	5.36%	—	13.39%
42+	—	0.89%	1.79%	0.89%	2.68%	—	1.79%	8.04%
Total	6.25%	13.39%	16.96%	24.11%	17.86%	13.39%	8.04%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.16	24.16	+0.00
SD	12.07	12.07	16.70
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	52	52	+38
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.43	24.93	-4.50
SD	13.57	12.07	20.55
CV	0.66	0.48	—
Max	42	45	+35
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.14	21.64	-0.50
SD	12.47	12.51	17.67
CV	0.59	0.58	—
Max	38	45	+29
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Dallas Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.86	18.07	+7.79
SD	10.26	14.72	16.96
CV	0.40	0.81	—
Max	45	42	+34
Min	10	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.07	28.07	-6.00
SD	9.88	11.74	14.32
CV	0.45	0.42	—
Max	38	48	+17
Min	7	10	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	—	21.43%	7.14%	57.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.07	20.36	+6.71
SD	12.29	6.56	11.19
CV	0.45	0.32	—
Max	45	28	+20
Min	0	10	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

New York Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.29	28.50	-1.21
SD	9.44	11.74	10.48
CV	0.35	0.41	—
Max	43	50	+24
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.79	27.71	-4.93
SD	9.62	13.25	18.23
CV	0.42	0.48	—
Max	48	52	+38
Min	9	7	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.64	24.00	+2.64
SD	17.56	10.87	19.38
CV	0.66	0.45	—
Max	52	43	+29
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	10	7.02	+2.98
2	Houston Oilers	10	7.26	+2.74
3	Dallas Texans	8	7.14	+0.86
4	New York Titans	7	7.03	-0.03
5	Oakland Raiders	6	6.83	-0.83

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	4.5	6.97	-2.47
2	Boston Patriots	5	6.91	-1.91
3	Buffalo Bills	5.5	6.84	-1.34
4	Oakland Raiders	6	6.83	-0.83
5	New York Titans	7	7.03	-0.03

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Chargers	4	Oct 16 – Nov 13	1 in 24
2	New York Titans	3	Nov 24 – Dec 11	1 in 9
3	Dallas Texans	3	Oct 30 – Nov 13	1 in 9
4	Houston Oilers	3	Oct 9 – Oct 23	1 in 8
5	Boston Patriots	3	Nov 4 – Nov 18	1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Titans	4	Oct 23 – Nov 11	1 in 22
2	Denver Broncos	4	Oct 30 – Nov 20	1 in 16
3	Boston Patriots	4	Nov 25 – Dec 18	1 in 12
4	Dallas Texans	3	Oct 2 – Oct 16	1 in 10
5	Oakland Raiders	3	Nov 27 – Dec 11	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Oilers	29.65%	25.72%	23.90%	20.73%
New York Titans	25.37%	25.25%	24.74%	24.64%
Boston Patriots	22.64%	24.80%	26.00%	26.56%
Buffalo Bills	22.34%	24.23%	25.36%	28.07%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Texans	27.51%	25.35%	24.61%	22.53%
San Diego Chargers	25.61%	25.30%	24.75%	24.34%
Denver Broncos	24.49%	25.60%	24.54%	25.37%
Oakland Raiders	22.39%	23.75%	26.10%	27.76%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Houston Oilers	15.10%	14.12%	13.51%	13.08%	11.75%	11.86%	10.66%	9.92%
Dallas Texans	14.33%	13.12%	13.04%	12.26%	11.99%	12.17%	12.14%	10.95%
New York Titans	12.29%	12.93%	12.75%	13.04%	12.35%	12.36%	12.21%	12.07%
San Diego Chargers	13.13%	11.96%	12.79%	12.50%	12.30%	13.00%	11.73%	12.59%
Denver Broncos	12.27%	12.21%	11.81%	12.97%	12.37%	12.83%	12.98%	12.56%
Boston Patriots	11.63%	11.98%	12.06%	11.93%	13.25%	12.51%	13.00%	13.64%
Buffalo Bills	10.86%	11.94%	11.86%	12.18%	12.91%	12.51%	13.32%	14.42%
Oakland Raiders	10.39%	11.74%	12.18%	12.04%	13.08%	12.76%	13.96%	13.85%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Houston Oilers	29.65%	70.35%
New York Titans	25.37%	74.63%
Boston Patriots	22.64%	77.36%
Buffalo Bills	22.34%	77.66%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Texans	27.51%	72.49%
San Diego Chargers	25.61%	74.39%
Denver Broncos	24.49%	75.51%
Oakland Raiders	22.39%	77.61%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Houston Oilers	29.65%	15.73%
Dallas Texans	27.51%	14.30%
San Diego Chargers	25.61%	12.93%
New York Titans	25.37%	12.73%
Denver Broncos	24.49%	11.66%
Boston Patriots	22.64%	11.09%
Buffalo Bills	22.34%	11.07%
Oakland Raiders	22.39%	10.49%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Dallas Texans	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	New York Titans	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots			2.81%	2.70%			2.83%	2.75%
Buffalo Bills			3.00%	2.75%			2.68%	2.64%
Dallas Texans	3.16%	3.16%			4.11%	3.87%
Denver Broncos	2.79%	2.70%			3.29%	2.88%
Houston Oilers			4.34%	3.95%			3.50%	3.94%
New York Titans			3.06%	3.43%			2.89%	3.35%
Oakland Raiders	2.65%	2.22%			3.03%	2.59%
San Diego Chargers	2.95%	3.19%			3.49%	3.30%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Houston Oilers	51.50%	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	48.50%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	San Diego Chargers
Houston Oilers		51.50%
San Diego Chargers	48.50%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Houston Oilers 51.50% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.50%

San Diego Chargers 48.50% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.50%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1960-09-09	Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1500.00	1500.00	53.33%	44.42%	-1.91	0-1
1960-09-17	@ New York Titans	W 28-24	1498.09	1504.51	43.51%	54.24%	+2.24	1-1
1960-09-23	Buffalo Bills	L 0-13	1500.33	1492.84	54.39%	43.36%	-4.04	1-2
1960-10-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 35-0	1496.29	1498.46	44.11%	53.64%	+6.54	2-2
1960-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-27	1502.83	1489.74	46.29%	51.46%	-3.45	2-3
1960-10-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1499.38	1504.09	43.75%	54.00%	-2.40	2-4
1960-10-28	San Diego Chargers	L 16-45	1496.98	1494.20	53.73%	44.03%	-5.97	2-5
1960-11-04	Oakland Raiders	W 34-28	1491.01	1489.34	53.57%	44.18%	+2.25	3-5
1960-11-11	New York Titans	W 38-21	1493.26	1496.26	52.90%	44.85%	+3.82	4-5
1960-11-18	Dallas Texans	W 42-14	1497.08	1512.87	51.08%	46.67%	+5.11	5-5
1960-11-25	Houston Oilers	L 10-24	1502.19	1520.04	50.78%	46.97%	-3.92	5-6
1960-12-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1498.27	1494.99	44.89%	52.86%	-4.55	5-7
1960-12-11	@ Dallas Texans	L 0-34	1493.72	1510.17	42.10%	55.66%	-5.09	5-8
1960-12-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-37	1488.63	1521.63	39.79%	57.96%	-3.30	5-9
1960-09-11	@ New York Titans	L 3-27	1500.00	1500.00	44.42%	53.33%	-4.51	0-1
1960-09-18	Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1495.49	1501.91	52.42%	45.33%	-2.65	0-2
1960-09-23	@ Boston Patriots	W 13-0	1492.84	1500.33	43.36%	54.39%	+4.05	1-2
1960-10-02	San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1496.89	1494.32	53.70%	44.06%	-4.15	1-3
1960-10-16	New York Titans	L 13-17	1492.74	1503.44	51.80%	45.95%	-2.13	1-4
1960-10-23	Oakland Raiders	W 38-9	1490.61	1493.19	52.96%	44.79%	+4.99	2-4
1960-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 25-24	1495.60	1515.18	50.53%	47.22%	+0.98	3-4
1960-11-06	Dallas Texans	L 28-45	1496.58	1503.77	52.31%	45.45%	-4.45	3-5
1960-11-13	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-20	1492.13	1487.10	45.14%	52.61%	-3.37	3-6
1960-11-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 32-3	1488.76	1505.95	41.99%	55.76%	+6.19	4-6
1960-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	T 38-38	1494.95	1492.40	44.78%	52.97%	+0.04	4-6
1960-12-04	Boston Patriots	W 38-14	1494.99	1498.27	52.86%	44.89%	+4.55	5-6
1960-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 23-31	1499.54	1519.19	41.65%	56.10%	-2.44	5-7
1960-12-18	@ Dallas Texans	L 7-24	1497.10	1515.26	41.86%	55.90%	-3.58	5-8
1960-09-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-21	1500.00	1500.00	44.42%	53.33%	-0.92	0-1
1960-09-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-16	1499.08	1495.74	44.90%	52.85%	+4.63	1-1
1960-09-25	San Diego Chargers	W 17-0	1503.71	1498.04	54.13%	43.62%	+3.72	2-1
1960-10-02	New York Titans	L 35-37	1507.43	1504.12	53.80%	43.95%	-1.57	2-2
1960-10-09	Oakland Raiders	L 19-20	1505.86	1488.59	55.77%	41.98%	-1.15	2-3
1960-10-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-20	1504.71	1508.24	43.92%	53.83%	-2.87	2-4
1960-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1501.84	1506.49	43.76%	53.99%	+1.93	3-4
1960-11-06	@ Buffalo Bills	W 45-28	1503.77	1496.58	45.45%	52.31%	+4.45	4-4
1960-11-13	Denver Broncos	W 34-7	1508.22	1499.76	54.53%	43.22%	+4.65	5-4
1960-11-18	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-42	1512.87	1497.08	46.67%	51.08%	-5.11	5-5
1960-11-24	@ New York Titans	L 35-41	1507.76	1492.44	46.61%	51.14%	-2.36	5-6
1960-12-04	Houston Oilers	W 24-0	1505.40	1523.96	50.68%	47.07%	+4.77	6-6
1960-12-11	Boston Patriots	W 34-0	1510.17	1493.72	55.66%	42.10%	+5.09	7-6
1960-12-18	Buffalo Bills	W 24-7	1515.26	1497.10	55.90%	41.86%	+3.57	8-6
1960-09-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 13-10	1500.00	1500.00	44.42%	53.33%	+1.91	1-0
1960-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-21	1501.91	1495.49	45.33%	52.42%	+2.65	2-0
1960-09-23	@ New York Titans	L 24-28	1504.56	1502.27	44.75%	53.01%	-1.86	2-1
1960-10-02	Oakland Raiders	W 31-14	1502.70	1492.26	54.81%	42.94%	+3.67	3-1
1960-10-16	San Diego Chargers	L 19-23	1506.37	1491.91	55.38%	42.38%	-2.28	3-2
1960-10-23	Boston Patriots	W 31-24	1504.09	1499.38	54.00%	43.75%	+2.40	4-2
1960-10-30	Dallas Texans	L 14-17	1506.49	1501.84	53.99%	43.76%	-1.93	4-3
1960-11-06	Houston Oilers	L 25-45	1504.56	1514.20	51.95%	45.80%	-4.80	4-4
1960-11-13	@ Dallas Texans	L 7-34	1499.76	1508.22	43.22%	54.53%	-4.65	4-5
1960-11-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-20	1495.11	1517.33	41.29%	56.46%	-2.71	4-6
1960-11-27	Buffalo Bills	T 38-38	1492.40	1494.95	52.97%	44.78%	-0.04	4-6
1960-12-04	New York Titans	L 27-30	1492.36	1494.80	52.98%	44.77%	-1.89	4-7
1960-12-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 33-41	1490.47	1509.27	41.77%	55.99%	-2.45	4-8
1960-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-48	1488.02	1479.13	45.69%	52.06%	-5.83	4-9
1960-09-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 37-22	1500.00	1500.00	44.42%	53.33%	+4.26	1-0
1960-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 38-28	1504.26	1500.92	53.81%	43.95%	+2.88	2-0
1960-09-25	Oakland Raiders	L 13-14	1507.14	1491.11	55.60%	42.16%	-1.15	2-1
1960-10-09	New York Titans	W 27-21	1505.99	1505.69	53.37%	44.38%	+2.25	3-1
1960-10-16	Dallas Texans	W 20-10	1508.24	1504.71	53.83%	43.92%	+2.88	4-1
1960-10-23	@ New York Titans	W 42-28	1511.12	1505.58	45.21%	52.54%	+4.06	5-1
1960-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-25	1515.18	1495.60	47.22%	50.53%	-0.98	5-2
1960-11-06	@ Denver Broncos	W 45-25	1514.20	1504.56	45.80%	51.95%	+4.80	6-2
1960-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-24	1519.00	1504.28	46.52%	51.23%	-1.67	6-3
1960-11-20	Denver Broncos	W 20-10	1517.33	1495.11	56.46%	41.29%	+2.71	7-3
1960-11-25	@ Boston Patriots	W 24-10	1520.04	1502.19	46.97%	50.78%	+3.92	8-3
1960-12-04	@ Dallas Texans	L 0-24	1523.96	1505.40	47.07%	50.68%	-4.77	8-4
1960-12-11	Buffalo Bills	W 31-23	1519.19	1499.54	56.10%	41.65%	+2.44	9-4
1960-12-18	Boston Patriots	W 37-21	1521.63	1488.63	57.96%	39.79%	+3.31	10-4
1960-09-11	Buffalo Bills	W 27-3	1500.00	1500.00	53.33%	44.42%	+4.51	1-0
1960-09-17	Boston Patriots	L 24-28	1504.51	1498.09	54.24%	43.51%	-2.24	1-1
1960-09-23	Denver Broncos	W 28-24	1502.27	1504.56	53.01%	44.75%	+1.85	2-1
1960-10-02	@ Dallas Texans	W 37-35	1504.12	1507.43	43.95%	53.80%	+1.57	3-1
1960-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-27	1505.69	1505.99	44.38%	53.37%	-2.25	3-2
1960-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-13	1503.44	1492.74	45.95%	51.80%	+2.14	4-2
1960-10-23	Houston Oilers	L 28-42	1505.58	1511.12	52.54%	45.21%	-4.06	4-3
1960-10-28	Oakland Raiders	L 27-28	1501.52	1488.20	55.22%	42.54%	-1.14	4-4
1960-11-04	San Diego Chargers	L 7-21	1500.38	1500.17	53.36%	44.39%	-4.12	4-5
1960-11-11	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-38	1496.26	1493.26	44.85%	52.90%	-3.82	4-6
1960-11-24	Dallas Texans	W 41-35	1492.44	1507.76	51.14%	46.61%	+2.36	5-6
1960-12-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1494.80	1492.36	44.77%	52.98%	+1.89	6-6
1960-12-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-28	1496.69	1480.96	46.67%	51.08%	+1.83	7-6
1960-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 43-50	1498.52	1511.72	42.55%	55.20%	-2.34	7-7
1960-09-11	Houston Oilers	L 22-37	1500.00	1500.00	53.33%	44.42%	-4.26	0-1
1960-09-16	Dallas Texans	L 16-34	1495.74	1499.08	52.85%	44.90%	-4.63	0-2
1960-09-25	@ Houston Oilers	W 14-13	1491.11	1507.14	42.16%	55.60%	+1.15	1-2
1960-10-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-31	1492.26	1502.70	42.94%	54.81%	-3.67	1-3
1960-10-09	@ Dallas Texans	W 20-19	1488.59	1505.86	41.98%	55.77%	+1.15	2-3
1960-10-16	Boston Patriots	W 27-14	1489.74	1502.83	51.46%	46.29%	+3.45	3-3
1960-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-38	1493.19	1490.61	44.79%	52.96%	-4.99	3-4
1960-10-28	@ New York Titans	W 28-27	1488.20	1501.52	42.54%	55.22%	+1.14	4-4
1960-11-04	@ Boston Patriots	L 28-34	1489.34	1491.01	44.18%	53.57%	-2.24	4-5
1960-11-13	Buffalo Bills	W 20-7	1487.10	1492.13	52.61%	45.14%	+3.36	5-5
1960-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-52	1490.46	1499.76	43.10%	54.65%	-4.37	5-6
1960-12-04	San Diego Chargers	L 17-41	1486.09	1504.14	50.75%	47.00%	-5.13	5-7
1960-12-11	New York Titans	L 28-31	1480.96	1496.69	51.08%	46.67%	-1.83	5-8
1960-12-17	Denver Broncos	W 48-10	1479.13	1488.02	52.06%	45.69%	+5.83	6-8
1960-09-10	Dallas Texans	W 21-20	1500.00	1500.00	53.33%	44.42%	+0.92	1-0
1960-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 28-38	1500.92	1504.26	43.95%	53.81%	-2.88	1-1
1960-09-25	@ Dallas Texans	L 0-17	1498.04	1503.71	43.62%	54.13%	-3.72	1-2
1960-10-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-10	1494.32	1496.89	44.06%	53.70%	+4.14	2-2
1960-10-08	Boston Patriots	L 0-35	1498.46	1496.29	53.64%	44.11%	-6.55	2-3
1960-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-19	1491.91	1506.37	42.38%	55.38%	+2.29	3-3
1960-10-28	@ Boston Patriots	W 45-16	1494.20	1496.98	44.03%	53.73%	+5.97	4-3
1960-11-04	@ New York Titans	W 21-7	1500.17	1500.38	44.39%	53.36%	+4.11	5-3
1960-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 24-21	1504.28	1519.00	51.23%	46.52%	+1.67	6-3
1960-11-20	Buffalo Bills	L 3-32	1505.95	1488.76	55.76%	41.99%	-6.19	6-4
1960-11-27	Oakland Raiders	W 52-28	1499.76	1490.46	54.65%	43.10%	+4.38	7-4
1960-12-04	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-17	1504.14	1486.09	47.00%	50.75%	+5.13	8-4
1960-12-10	Denver Broncos	W 41-33	1509.27	1490.47	55.99%	41.77%	+2.45	9-4
1960-12-18	New York Titans	W 50-43	1511.72	1498.52	55.20%	42.55%	+2.33	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-01-01	San Diego Chargers	W 24-16	1524.94	1514.05	56.01%	43.99%	+2.51	1-0
1961-01-01	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-24	1514.05	1524.94	43.99%	56.01%	-2.51	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1960-10-09	41.98%	Oakland Raiders	1488.59	20	@ Dallas Texans	1505.86	19
2	1960-11-20	41.99%	Buffalo Bills	1488.76	32	@ San Diego Chargers	1505.95	3
3	1960-09-25	42.16%	Oakland Raiders	1491.11	14	@ Houston Oilers	1507.14	13
4	1960-10-16	42.38%	San Diego Chargers	1491.91	23	@ Denver Broncos	1506.37	19
5	1960-10-28	42.54%	Oakland Raiders	1488.20	28	@ New York Titans	1501.52	27
6	1960-09-23	43.36%	Buffalo Bills	1492.84	13	@ Boston Patriots	1500.33	0
7	1960-09-17	43.51%	Boston Patriots	1498.09	28	@ New York Titans	1504.51	24
8	1960-10-30	43.76%	Dallas Texans	1501.84	17	@ Denver Broncos	1506.49	14
9	1960-10-02	43.95%	New York Titans	1504.12	37	@ Dallas Texans	1507.43	35
10	1960-10-28	44.03%	San Diego Chargers	1494.20	45	@ Boston Patriots	1496.98	16
11	1960-10-02	44.06%	San Diego Chargers	1494.32	24	@ Buffalo Bills	1496.89	10
12	1960-10-08	44.11%	Boston Patriots	1496.29	35	@ San Diego Chargers	1498.46	0
13	1960-11-04	44.39%	San Diego Chargers	1500.17	21	@ New York Titans	1500.38	7
14	1960-09-09	44.42%	Denver Broncos	1500.00	13	@ Boston Patriots	1500.00	10
15	1960-09-11	44.42%	Houston Oilers	1500.00	37	@ Oakland Raiders	1500.00	22
16	1960-12-04	44.77%	New York Titans	1494.80	30	@ Denver Broncos	1492.36	27
17	1960-09-16	44.90%	Dallas Texans	1499.08	34	@ Oakland Raiders	1495.74	16
18	1960-10-23	45.21%	Houston Oilers	1511.12	42	@ New York Titans	1505.58	28
19	1960-09-18	45.33%	Denver Broncos	1501.91	27	@ Buffalo Bills	1495.49	21
20	1960-11-06	45.45%	Dallas Texans	1503.77	45	@ Buffalo Bills	1496.58	28
21	1960-11-06	45.80%	Houston Oilers	1514.20	45	@ Denver Broncos	1504.56	25
22	1960-10-16	45.95%	New York Titans	1503.44	17	@ Buffalo Bills	1492.74	13
23	1960-12-11	46.67%	New York Titans	1496.69	31	@ Oakland Raiders	1480.96	28
24	1960-11-25	46.97%	Houston Oilers	1520.04	24	@ Boston Patriots	1502.19	10
25	1960-12-04	47.00%	San Diego Chargers	1504.14	41	@ Oakland Raiders	1486.09	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1960-10-08	6.55	Boston Patriots	35	1496.29	44.11%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1498.46	53.64%
2	1960-11-20	6.19	Buffalo Bills	32	1488.76	41.99%	@ San Diego Chargers	3	1505.95	55.76%
3	1960-10-28	5.97	San Diego Chargers	45	1494.20	44.03%	@ Boston Patriots	16	1496.98	53.73%
4	1960-12-17	5.83	@ Oakland Raiders	48	1479.13	52.06%	Denver Broncos	10	1488.02	45.69%
5	1960-12-04	5.13	San Diego Chargers	41	1504.14	47.00%	@ Oakland Raiders	17	1486.09	50.75%
6	1960-11-18	5.11	@ Boston Patriots	42	1497.08	51.08%	Dallas Texans	14	1512.87	46.67%
7	1960-12-11	5.09	@ Dallas Texans	34	1510.17	55.66%	Boston Patriots	0	1493.72	42.10%
8	1960-10-23	4.99	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1490.61	52.96%	Oakland Raiders	9	1493.19	44.79%
9	1960-11-06	4.80	Houston Oilers	45	1514.20	45.80%	@ Denver Broncos	25	1504.56	51.95%
10	1960-12-04	4.77	@ Dallas Texans	24	1505.40	50.68%	Houston Oilers	0	1523.96	47.07%
11	1960-11-13	4.65	@ Dallas Texans	34	1508.22	54.53%	Denver Broncos	7	1499.76	43.22%
12	1960-09-16	4.63	Dallas Texans	34	1499.08	44.90%	@ Oakland Raiders	16	1495.74	52.85%
13	1960-12-04	4.55	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1494.99	52.86%	Boston Patriots	14	1498.27	44.89%
14	1960-09-11	4.51	@ New York Titans	27	1500.00	53.33%	Buffalo Bills	3	1500.00	44.42%
15	1960-11-06	4.45	Dallas Texans	45	1503.77	45.45%	@ Buffalo Bills	28	1496.58	52.31%
16	1960-11-27	4.38	@ San Diego Chargers	52	1499.76	54.65%	Oakland Raiders	28	1490.46	43.10%
17	1960-09-11	4.26	Houston Oilers	37	1500.00	44.42%	@ Oakland Raiders	22	1500.00	53.33%
18	1960-10-02	4.15	San Diego Chargers	24	1494.32	44.06%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1496.89	53.70%
19	1960-11-04	4.12	San Diego Chargers	21	1500.17	44.39%	@ New York Titans	7	1500.38	53.36%
20	1960-10-23	4.06	Houston Oilers	42	1511.12	45.21%	@ New York Titans	28	1505.58	52.54%
21	1960-09-23	4.05	Buffalo Bills	13	1492.84	43.36%	@ Boston Patriots	0	1500.33	54.39%
22	1960-11-25	3.92	Houston Oilers	24	1520.04	46.97%	@ Boston Patriots	10	1502.19	50.78%
23	1960-11-11	3.82	@ Boston Patriots	38	1493.26	52.90%	New York Titans	21	1496.26	44.85%
24	1960-09-25	3.72	@ Dallas Texans	17	1503.71	54.13%	San Diego Chargers	0	1498.04	43.62%
25	1960-10-02	3.67	@ Denver Broncos	31	1502.70	54.81%	Oakland Raiders	14	1492.26	42.94%