1948 AAFC Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Buffalo Bills (1st)

3rd Title

Last Title: 1947

Runner-Up

Baltimore Colts (1st)

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns

5.10 wins above expected

14 wins · 8.90 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Rockets

4.60 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.60 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills (1st) Division	7	7	.500	—	360	358	+2	7.03	-0.03
2	Baltimore Colts (1st) Playoffs	7	7	.500	—	333	327	+6	6.14	+0.86
3	New York Yankees	6	8	.429	1	265	301	-36	7.20	-1.20
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	2	12	.143	5	253	387	-134	5.68	-3.68

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns	14	0	1.000	—	389	190	+199	8.90	+5.10
2	San Francisco 49ers	12	2	.857	2	495	248	+247	8.36	+3.64
3	Los Angeles Dons	7	7	.500	7	258	305	-47	7.08	-0.08
4	Chicago Rockets	1	13	.071	13	202	439	-237	5.60	-4.60

Playoff Bracket

AAFC Championship Game

Buffalo Bills (1st) 28

Baltimore Colts (1st) 17

Dec 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns	West	1629	14	8.90	+5.10	100.00%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
San Francisco 49ers	West	1598	12	8.36	+3.64	99.26%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
New York Yankees	East	1504	6	7.20	-1.20	37.56%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills (1st)	East	1501	7	7.03	-0.03	61.37%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Los Angeles Dons	West	1492	7	7.08	-0.08	60.70%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Baltimore Colts (1st)	East	1475	7	6.14	+0.86	78.66%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1413	2	5.68	-3.68	3.78%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
Chicago Rockets	West	1387	1	5.60	-4.60	0.82%	0	3	4	5	7	9	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Dodgers	(1st)	Yankees
Baltimore Colts (1st)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Yankees	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Rockets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New York Yankees	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team	Rockets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Chicago Rockets	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Dodgers	(1st)	Yankees
Chicago Rockets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	0.89%	0.89%	—	1.79%	—	4.46%
7–13	0.89%	—	4.46%	4.46%	2.68%	0.89%	2.68%	16.07%
14–20	0.89%	4.46%	3.57%	2.68%	4.46%	8.04%	0.89%	25.00%
21–27	0.89%	4.46%	2.68%	1.79%	2.68%	2.68%	0.89%	16.07%
28–34	—	2.68%	4.46%	2.68%	1.79%	0.89%	1.79%	14.29%
35–41	1.79%	0.89%	8.04%	2.68%	0.89%	1.79%	0.89%	16.96%
42+	—	2.68%	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	0.89%	—	7.14%
Total	4.46%	16.07%	25.00%	16.07%	14.29%	16.96%	7.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.81	22.81	+0.00
SD	12.62	12.62	18.75
CV	0.55	0.55	—
Max	63	63	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	—	50.00%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.79	23.36	+0.43
SD	12.83	11.27	18.71
CV	0.54	0.48	—
Max	45	56	+20
Min	7	14	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.07	27.64	-9.57
SD	11.14	13.70	12.38
CV	0.62	0.50	—
Max	40	63	+21
Min	0	7	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.71	25.57	+0.14
SD	10.67	10.64	18.50
CV	0.41	0.42	—
Max	42	42	+35
Min	13	7	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	14.29%	42.86%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	100%

Chicago Rockets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.43	31.36	-16.93
SD	9.96	12.23	11.26
CV	0.69	0.39	—
Max	35	49	+7
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	57.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	50.00%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.79	13.57	+14.21
SD	8.05	6.38	8.39
CV	0.29	0.47	—
Max	42	28	+29
Min	14	7	+3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	57.14%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	—	21.43%	28.57%	—	100%

Los Angeles Dons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.43	21.79	-3.36
SD	10.35	13.75	16.20
CV	0.56	0.63	—
Max	49	38	+21
Min	6	0	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

New York Yankees — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.93	21.50	-2.57
SD	11.99	14.60	23.12
CV	0.63	0.68	—
Max	42	45	+35
Min	0	3	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
42+	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	35.36	17.71	+17.64
SD	14.15	10.24	13.53
CV	0.40	0.58	—
Max	63	40	+42
Min	7	0	-7

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns	14	8.90	+5.10
2	San Francisco 49ers	12	8.36	+3.64
3	Baltimore Colts (1st)	7	6.14	+0.86
4	Buffalo Bills (1st)	7	7.03	-0.03
5	Los Angeles Dons	7	7.08	-0.08

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Rockets	1	5.60	-4.60
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	2	5.68	-3.68
3	New York Yankees	6	7.20	-1.20
4	Los Angeles Dons	7	7.08	-0.08
5	Buffalo Bills (1st)	7	7.03	-0.03

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns	14	Sep 3 – Dec 5	1 in 711
2	San Francisco 49ers	10	Aug 29 – Nov 7	1 in 164
3	Buffalo Bills (1st)	3	Oct 24 – Nov 7	1 in 7
4	New York Yankees	3	Oct 31 – Nov 14	1 in 6
5	Baltimore Colts (1st)	2	Sep 16 – Sep 26	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Rockets	11	Sep 17 – Dec 4	1 in 250
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	6	Aug 27 – Oct 10	1 in 25
3	New York Yankees	4	Sep 5 – Sep 29	1 in 25
4	Los Angeles Dons	2	Oct 15 – Oct 24	1 in 5
5	Baltimore Colts (1st)	3	Oct 24 – Nov 7	1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
New York Yankees	36.89%	28.18%	20.98%	13.95%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	33.06%	28.53%	22.44%	15.97%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	17.75%	24.33%	28.44%	29.48%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.30%	18.96%	28.14%	40.60%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns	47.83%	30.00%	16.47%	5.70%
San Francisco 49ers	34.15%	35.37%	21.83%	8.65%
Los Angeles Dons	14.09%	24.19%	37.17%	24.55%
Chicago Rockets	3.93%	10.44%	24.53%	61.10%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Cleveland Browns	37.11%	22.21%	15.21%	9.73%	7.33%	4.64%	2.65%	1.12%
San Francisco 49ers	25.23%	22.68%	16.47%	12.58%	9.64%	6.68%	4.59%	2.13%
New York Yankees	10.37%	13.63%	15.74%	14.55%	14.42%	12.88%	10.55%	7.86%
Los Angeles Dons	9.85%	12.60%	14.60%	15.29%	14.65%	13.46%	10.84%	8.71%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	8.98%	12.28%	14.88%	15.07%	14.59%	13.60%	11.74%	8.86%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	3.73%	7.10%	9.71%	12.77%	14.25%	16.12%	18.15%	18.17%
Brooklyn Dodgers	2.39%	4.96%	6.75%	10.24%	12.78%	16.49%	20.61%	25.78%
Chicago Rockets	2.34%	4.54%	6.64%	9.77%	12.34%	16.13%	20.87%	27.37%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Yankees	36.89%	63.11%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	33.06%	66.94%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	17.75%	82.25%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.30%	87.70%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns	47.83%	52.17%
San Francisco 49ers	34.15%	65.85%
Los Angeles Dons	14.09%	85.91%
Chicago Rockets	3.93%	96.07%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Cleveland Browns	47.83%	32.85%
San Francisco 49ers	34.15%	22.40%
New York Yankees	36.89%	13.73%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	33.06%	12.95%
Los Angeles Dons	14.09%	7.33%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	17.75%	6.02%
Brooklyn Dodgers	12.30%	3.43%
Chicago Rockets	3.93%	1.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts (1st)	Brooklyn Dodgers	Buffalo Bills (1st)	Chicago Rockets	Cleveland Browns	Los Angeles Dons	New York Yankees	San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)				0.47%	2.63%	1.18%		1.74%
Brooklyn Dodgers				0.30%	1.24%	0.63%		1.26%
Buffalo Bills (1st)				0.96%	5.56%	2.31%		4.12%
Chicago Rockets	0.36%	0.18%	0.37%				0.38%
Cleveland Browns	6.11%	4.60%	10.57%				11.57%
Los Angeles Dons	1.32%	1.07%	2.33%				2.61%
New York Yankees				0.91%	5.55%	2.64%		4.63%
San Francisco 49ers	3.94%	3.02%	6.84%				8.60%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills (1st)	32.38%	Won Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills (1st)	Cleveland Browns
Buffalo Bills (1st)		32.38%
Cleveland Browns	67.62%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns 67.62% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Buffalo Bills (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.62%

Buffalo Bills (1st) 32.38% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.38%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1948-09-05	New York Yankees	W 45-28	1454.74	1534.43	38.13%	60.61%	+10.46	1-0
1948-09-10	@ Chicago Rockets	L 14-21	1465.20	1454.24	50.94%	47.79%	-5.65	1-1
1948-09-16	@ New York Yankees	W 27-14	1459.55	1511.20	42.00%	56.73%	+8.57	2-1
1948-09-26	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 35-20	1468.12	1447.48	52.33%	46.40%	+7.54	3-1
1948-10-05	Cleveland Browns	L 10-14	1475.66	1579.23	34.94%	63.79%	-2.94	3-2
1948-10-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-56	1472.72	1569.29	35.86%	62.87%	-9.78	3-3
1948-10-15	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 29-14	1462.94	1517.81	41.55%	57.19%	+9.27	4-3
1948-10-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-21	1472.21	1585.04	33.74%	65.00%	-4.71	4-4
1948-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 17-35	1467.50	1492.42	45.79%	52.95%	-8.15	4-5
1948-11-07	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-28	1459.35	1600.73	30.17%	68.57%	-5.83	4-6
1948-11-14	Chicago Rockets	W 38-24	1453.52	1403.04	56.57%	42.17%	+6.63	5-6
1948-11-21	Los Angeles Dons	L 14-17	1460.15	1500.95	43.53%	55.21%	-3.17	5-7
1948-11-28	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 38-20	1456.98	1423.97	54.10%	44.64%	+7.95	6-7
1948-12-05	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 35-15	1464.93	1511.37	42.74%	56.00%	+10.49	7-7
1948-08-27	New York Yankees	L 3-21	1466.92	1527.16	40.80%	57.93%	-7.27	0-1
1948-09-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-36	1459.65	1530.09	39.39%	59.35%	-6.63	0-2
1948-09-10	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 7-17	1453.02	1506.74	41.71%	57.02%	-5.54	0-3
1948-09-26	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 20-35	1447.48	1468.12	46.40%	52.33%	-7.54	0-4
1948-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 21-31	1439.94	1486.74	42.68%	56.05%	-5.67	0-5
1948-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-30	1434.27	1582.17	29.39%	69.35%	-4.47	0-6
1948-10-15	Chicago Rockets	W 21-7	1429.80	1435.22	48.59%	50.15%	+7.87	1-6
1948-10-24	@ Chicago Rockets	W 35-14	1437.67	1427.35	50.85%	47.89%	+9.20	2-6
1948-10-31	Los Angeles Dons	L 0-17	1446.87	1500.25	41.76%	56.98%	-7.23	2-7
1948-11-07	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 21-26	1439.64	1500.58	40.71%	58.03%	-3.82	2-8
1948-11-14	@ New York Yankees	L 7-21	1435.82	1506.42	39.37%	59.37%	-6.20	2-9
1948-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 40-63	1429.62	1589.62	27.96%	70.78%	-5.65	2-10
1948-11-28	Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 20-38	1423.97	1456.98	44.64%	54.10%	-7.95	2-11
1948-12-05	Cleveland Browns	L 21-31	1416.02	1626.39	22.51%	76.23%	-3.01	2-12
1948-08-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-35	1498.87	1521.22	46.16%	52.58%	-8.88	0-1
1948-09-06	Chicago Rockets	W 42-7	1489.99	1465.63	52.87%	45.87%	+11.39	1-1
1948-09-12	Cleveland Browns	L 13-42	1501.38	1558.72	41.21%	57.53%	-9.32	1-2
1948-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1492.06	1558.16	39.99%	58.75%	-5.32	1-3
1948-10-03	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 31-21	1486.74	1439.94	56.05%	42.68%	+5.67	2-3
1948-10-10	New York Yankees	L 13-14	1492.41	1496.11	48.84%	49.90%	-2.05	2-4
1948-10-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-31	1490.36	1586.64	35.90%	62.83%	-6.22	2-5
1948-10-24	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 35-21	1484.14	1508.54	45.87%	52.87%	+8.28	3-5
1948-10-31	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 35-17	1492.42	1467.50	52.95%	45.79%	+8.16	4-5
1948-11-07	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 26-21	1500.58	1439.64	58.03%	40.71%	+3.82	5-5
1948-11-14	Los Angeles Dons	L 20-27	1504.40	1495.33	50.67%	48.06%	-5.62	5-6
1948-11-25	@ Chicago Rockets	W 39-35	1498.78	1396.41	63.64%	35.10%	+2.96	6-6
1948-11-28	@ New York Yankees	W 35-14	1501.74	1507.22	48.58%	50.16%	+9.63	7-6
1948-12-05	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 15-35	1511.37	1464.93	56.00%	42.74%	-10.48	7-7
1948-08-27	Los Angeles Dons	L 0-7	1470.55	1505.87	44.31%	54.43%	-4.92	0-1
1948-09-06	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 7-42	1465.63	1489.99	45.87%	52.87%	-11.39	0-2
1948-09-10	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 21-14	1454.24	1465.20	47.79%	50.94%	+5.65	1-2
1948-09-17	Cleveland Browns	L 7-28	1459.89	1568.04	34.35%	64.39%	-6.62	1-3
1948-09-26	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-21	1453.27	1574.67	32.65%	66.09%	-4.56	1-4
1948-10-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-31	1448.71	1563.47	33.49%	65.25%	-5.82	1-5
1948-10-08	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 28-49	1442.89	1510.14	39.83%	58.90%	-7.67	1-6
1948-10-15	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-21	1435.22	1429.80	50.15%	48.59%	-7.87	1-7
1948-10-24	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-35	1427.35	1437.67	47.89%	50.85%	-9.20	1-8
1948-10-31	@ New York Yankees	L 7-42	1418.15	1484.32	39.98%	58.76%	-9.94	1-9
1948-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-44	1408.21	1589.75	25.53%	73.21%	-5.17	1-10
1948-11-14	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 24-38	1403.04	1453.52	42.17%	56.57%	-6.63	1-11
1948-11-25	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 35-39	1396.41	1498.78	35.10%	63.64%	-2.95	1-12
1948-12-04	New York Yankees	L 7-28	1393.46	1497.59	34.87%	63.87%	-6.73	1-13
1948-09-03	Los Angeles Dons	W 19-14	1554.67	1510.79	55.64%	43.10%	+4.05	1-0
1948-09-12	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 42-13	1558.72	1501.38	57.53%	41.21%	+9.32	2-0
1948-09-17	@ Chicago Rockets	W 28-7	1568.04	1459.89	64.39%	34.35%	+6.63	3-0
1948-09-26	Chicago Rockets	W 21-10	1574.67	1453.27	66.09%	32.65%	+4.56	4-0
1948-10-05	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 14-10	1579.23	1475.66	63.79%	34.94%	+2.94	5-0
1948-10-10	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 30-17	1582.17	1434.27	69.35%	29.39%	+4.47	6-0
1948-10-17	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 31-14	1586.64	1490.36	62.83%	35.90%	+6.22	7-0
1948-10-24	New York Yankees	W 35-7	1592.86	1492.19	63.42%	35.32%	+7.87	8-0
1948-11-07	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 28-7	1600.73	1459.35	68.57%	30.17%	+5.82	9-0
1948-11-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-7	1606.55	1594.92	51.04%	47.70%	+5.30	10-0
1948-11-21	@ New York Yankees	W 34-21	1611.85	1512.61	63.23%	35.51%	+5.39	11-0
1948-11-25	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 31-14	1617.24	1504.12	65.03%	33.70%	+5.85	12-0
1948-11-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-28	1623.09	1595.28	53.36%	45.38%	+3.30	13-0
1948-12-05	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 31-21	1626.39	1416.02	76.23%	22.51%	+3.00	14-0
1948-08-27	@ Chicago Rockets	W 7-0	1505.87	1470.55	54.43%	44.31%	+4.92	1-0
1948-09-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-19	1510.79	1554.67	43.10%	55.64%	-4.05	1-1
1948-09-10	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 17-7	1506.74	1453.02	57.02%	41.71%	+5.55	2-1
1948-09-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-36	1512.29	1549.49	44.04%	54.69%	-8.68	2-2
1948-09-29	New York Yankees	W 20-10	1503.61	1502.64	49.51%	49.23%	+6.53	3-2
1948-10-08	Chicago Rockets	W 49-28	1510.14	1442.89	58.90%	39.83%	+7.67	4-2
1948-10-15	Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 14-29	1517.81	1462.94	57.19%	41.55%	-9.27	4-3
1948-10-24	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 21-35	1508.54	1484.14	52.87%	45.87%	-8.29	4-4
1948-10-31	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 17-0	1500.25	1446.87	56.98%	41.76%	+7.23	5-4
1948-11-07	@ New York Yankees	L 6-38	1507.48	1494.26	51.27%	47.47%	-12.15	5-5
1948-11-14	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 27-20	1495.33	1504.40	48.06%	50.67%	+5.62	6-5
1948-11-21	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 17-14	1500.95	1460.15	55.21%	43.53%	+3.17	7-5
1948-11-25	Cleveland Browns	L 14-31	1504.12	1617.24	33.70%	65.03%	-5.85	7-6
1948-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-38	1498.27	1591.98	36.24%	62.49%	-6.29	7-7
1948-08-27	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-3	1527.16	1466.92	57.93%	40.80%	+7.27	1-0
1948-09-05	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 28-45	1534.43	1454.74	60.61%	38.13%	-10.46	1-1
1948-09-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-41	1523.97	1536.72	47.54%	51.20%	-12.77	1-2
1948-09-16	Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 14-27	1511.20	1459.55	56.73%	42.00%	-8.56	1-3
1948-09-29	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 10-20	1502.64	1503.61	49.23%	49.51%	-6.53	1-4
1948-10-10	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 14-13	1496.11	1492.41	49.90%	48.84%	+2.05	2-4
1948-10-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-21	1498.16	1579.07	37.96%	60.77%	-5.97	2-5
1948-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-35	1492.19	1592.86	35.32%	63.42%	-7.87	2-6
1948-10-31	Chicago Rockets	W 42-7	1484.32	1418.15	58.76%	39.98%	+9.94	3-6
1948-11-07	Los Angeles Dons	W 38-6	1494.26	1507.48	47.47%	51.27%	+12.16	4-6
1948-11-14	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-7	1506.42	1435.82	59.37%	39.37%	+6.19	5-6
1948-11-21	Cleveland Browns	L 21-34	1512.61	1611.85	35.51%	63.23%	-5.39	5-7
1948-11-28	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 14-35	1507.22	1501.74	50.16%	48.58%	-9.63	5-8
1948-12-04	@ Chicago Rockets	W 28-7	1497.59	1393.46	63.87%	34.87%	+6.72	6-8
1948-08-29	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 35-14	1521.22	1498.87	52.58%	46.16%	+8.87	1-0
1948-09-05	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 36-20	1530.09	1459.65	59.35%	39.39%	+6.63	2-0
1948-09-12	New York Yankees	W 41-0	1536.72	1523.97	51.20%	47.54%	+12.77	3-0
1948-09-19	Los Angeles Dons	W 36-14	1549.49	1512.29	54.69%	44.04%	+8.67	4-0
1948-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 38-28	1558.16	1492.06	58.75%	39.99%	+5.31	5-0
1948-10-01	@ Chicago Rockets	W 31-14	1563.47	1448.71	65.25%	33.49%	+5.82	6-0
1948-10-10	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 56-14	1569.29	1472.72	62.87%	35.86%	+9.78	7-0
1948-10-17	@ New York Yankees	W 21-7	1579.07	1498.16	60.77%	37.96%	+5.97	8-0
1948-10-24	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 21-10	1585.04	1472.21	65.00%	33.74%	+4.71	9-0
1948-11-07	Chicago Rockets	W 44-21	1589.75	1408.21	73.21%	25.53%	+5.17	10-0
1948-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-14	1594.92	1606.55	47.70%	51.04%	-5.30	10-1
1948-11-21	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 63-40	1589.62	1429.62	70.78%	27.96%	+5.66	11-1
1948-11-28	Cleveland Browns	L 28-31	1595.28	1623.09	45.38%	53.36%	-3.30	11-2
1948-12-05	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 38-21	1591.98	1498.27	62.49%	36.24%	+6.29	12-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1948-12-12	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 17-28	1475.42	1500.89	46.34%	53.66%	-6.36	0-1
1948-12-12	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 28-17	1500.89	1475.42	53.66%	46.34%	+6.36	1-0
1948-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-49	1507.25	1629.39	33.11%	66.89%	-8.89	1-1
1948-12-19	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 49-7	1629.39	1507.25	66.89%	33.11%	+8.88	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1948-09-05	38.13%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	1454.74	45	New York Yankees	1534.43	28
2	1948-10-15	41.55%	Baltimore Colts (1st)	1462.94	29	@ Los Angeles Dons	1517.81	14
3	1948-09-16	42.00%	Baltimore Colts (1st)	1459.55	27	@ New York Yankees	1511.20	14
4	1948-12-05	42.74%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	1464.93	35	Buffalo Bills (1st)	1511.37	15
5	1948-10-24	45.87%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	1484.14	35	@ Los Angeles Dons	1508.54	21
6	1948-11-07	47.47%	@ New York Yankees	1494.26	38	Los Angeles Dons	1507.48	6
7	1948-09-10	47.79%	@ Chicago Rockets	1454.24	21	Baltimore Colts (1st)	1465.20	14
8	1948-11-14	48.06%	Los Angeles Dons	1495.33	27	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	1504.40	20
9	1948-11-28	48.58%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	1501.74	35	@ New York Yankees	1507.22	14
10	1948-10-15	48.59%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1429.80	21	Chicago Rockets	1435.22	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1948-09-12	12.77	@ San Francisco 49ers	41	1536.72	51.20%	New York Yankees	0	1523.97	47.54%
2	1948-11-07	12.16	@ New York Yankees	38	1494.26	47.47%	Los Angeles Dons	6	1507.48	51.27%
3	1948-09-06	11.39	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	42	1489.99	52.87%	Chicago Rockets	7	1465.63	45.87%
4	1948-12-05	10.49	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	35	1464.93	42.74%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	15	1511.37	56.00%
5	1948-09-05	10.46	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	45	1454.74	38.13%	New York Yankees	28	1534.43	60.61%
6	1948-10-31	9.94	@ New York Yankees	42	1484.32	58.76%	Chicago Rockets	7	1418.15	39.98%
7	1948-10-10	9.78	San Francisco 49ers	56	1569.29	62.87%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	14	1472.72	35.86%
8	1948-11-28	9.63	Buffalo Bills (1st)	35	1501.74	48.58%	@ New York Yankees	14	1507.22	50.16%
9	1948-09-12	9.32	Cleveland Browns	42	1558.72	57.53%	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	13	1501.38	41.21%
10	1948-10-15	9.27	Baltimore Colts (1st)	29	1462.94	41.55%	@ Los Angeles Dons	14	1517.81	57.19%
11	1948-10-24	9.20	Brooklyn Dodgers	35	1437.67	50.85%	@ Chicago Rockets	14	1427.35	47.89%
12	1948-12-19 *	8.89	@ Cleveland Browns	49	1629.39	66.89%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	7	1507.25	33.11%
13	1948-08-29	8.88	@ San Francisco 49ers	35	1521.22	52.58%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	14	1498.87	46.16%
14	1948-09-19	8.68	@ San Francisco 49ers	36	1549.49	54.69%	Los Angeles Dons	14	1512.29	44.04%
15	1948-09-16	8.57	Baltimore Colts (1st)	27	1459.55	42.00%	@ New York Yankees	14	1511.20	56.73%
16	1948-10-24	8.29	Buffalo Bills (1st)	35	1484.14	45.87%	@ Los Angeles Dons	21	1508.54	52.87%
17	1948-10-31	8.16	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	35	1492.42	52.95%	Baltimore Colts (1st)	17	1467.50	45.79%
18	1948-11-28	7.95	Baltimore Colts (1st)	38	1456.98	54.10%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	20	1423.97	44.64%
19	1948-10-15	7.87	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1429.80	48.59%	Chicago Rockets	7	1435.22	50.15%
20	1948-10-24	7.87	@ Cleveland Browns	35	1592.86	63.42%	New York Yankees	7	1492.19	35.32%
21	1948-10-08	7.67	@ Los Angeles Dons	49	1510.14	58.90%	Chicago Rockets	28	1442.89	39.83%
22	1948-09-26	7.54	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	35	1468.12	52.33%	Brooklyn Dodgers	20	1447.48	46.40%
23	1948-08-27	7.27	New York Yankees	21	1527.16	57.93%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	3	1466.92	40.80%
24	1948-10-31	7.23	Los Angeles Dons	17	1500.25	56.98%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1446.87	41.76%
25	1948-12-04	6.73	New York Yankees	28	1497.59	63.87%	@ Chicago Rockets	7	1393.46	34.87%