1949 AAFC Season

42 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns

4th Title

Last Title: 1948

Runner-Up

San Francisco 49ers

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns

2.19 wins above expected

9 wins · 7.81 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Baltimore Colts (1st)

3.94 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.94 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Yankees Division	8	4	0	.667	—	196	206	-10	6.15	+1.85
2	Buffalo Bills (1st) Playoffs	5	5	2	.500	2	236	256	-20	5.69	+0.31
3	Baltimore Colts (1st)	1	11	0	.083	7	172	341	-169	4.94	-3.94

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns Division	9	1	2	.833	—	339	171	+168	7.81	+2.19
2	San Francisco 49ers Playoffs	9	3	0	.750	1	416	227	+189	7.45	+1.55
3	Chicago Hornets	4	8	0	.333	6	179	268	-89	4.33	-0.33
4	Los Angeles Dons	4	8	0	.333	6	253	322	-69	5.64	-1.64

Playoff Bracket

AAFC Playoffs

Division Round

Cleveland Browns 31

Buffalo Bills (1st) 21

Dec 4

San Francisco 49ers 17

New York Yankees 7

Dec 4

AAFC Championship Game

Cleveland Browns 21

San Francisco 49ers 7

Dec 11

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns	West	1622	10	7.81	+2.19	99.75%	2	5	6	7	9	10	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1604	9	7.45	+1.55	92.74%	1	4	6	7	8	10	12
New York Yankees	East	1507	8	6.15	+1.85	95.02%	0	3	5	6	7	8	12
Buffalo Bills (1st)	East	1491	6	5.69	+0.31	90.51%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Los Angeles Dons	West	1471	4	5.64	-1.64	32.16%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
Chicago Hornets	West	1405	4	4.33	-0.33	63.92%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
Baltimore Colts (1st)	East	1401	1	4.94	-3.94	2.56%	0	2	3	5	6	7	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	(1st)	Yankees
Baltimore Colts (1st)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Yankees	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Hornets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Yankees	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)

Within West

Team	Hornets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Chicago Hornets	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	(1st)	Yankees
Chicago Hornets	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.19%	2.38%	2.38%	1.19%	1.19%	—	8.33%
7–13	1.19%	4.76%	2.38%	1.19%	1.19%	1.19%	3.57%	15.48%
14–20	2.38%	2.38%	11.90%	2.38%	3.57%	2.38%	3.57%	28.57%
21–27	2.38%	1.19%	2.38%	4.76%	—	2.38%	1.19%	14.29%
28–34	1.19%	1.19%	3.57%	—	4.76%	1.19%	2.38%	14.29%
35–41	1.19%	1.19%	2.38%	2.38%	1.19%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	3.57%	3.57%	1.19%	2.38%	—	—	10.71%
Total	8.33%	15.48%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	8.33%	10.71%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.32	21.32	+0.00
SD	13.35	13.35	19.89
CV	0.63	0.63	—
Max	61	61	+47
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 42

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	8.33%	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

Baltimore Colts (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.33	28.42	-14.08
SD	8.89	8.95	11.11
CV	0.62	0.31	—
Max	35	49	+7
Min	0	17	-32

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	33.33%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	8.33%	50.00%	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	100%

Buffalo Bills (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.67	21.33	-1.67
SD	10.03	14.82	16.46
CV	0.51	0.69	—
Max	38	51	+24
Min	7	0	-44

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	—	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Chicago Hornets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.92	22.33	-7.42
SD	10.44	13.53	17.45
CV	0.70	0.61	—
Max	35	42	+28
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	41.67%
35–41	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	41.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.25	14.25	+14.00
SD	14.23	16.54	20.47
CV	0.50	1.16	—
Max	61	56	+47
Min	7	0	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%	33.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%	100%

Los Angeles Dons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.08	26.83	-5.75
SD	12.82	16.14	22.51
CV	0.61	0.60	—
Max	49	61	+32
Min	7	10	-47

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	8.33%	—	41.67%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	41.67%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

New York Yankees — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.33	17.17	-0.83
SD	10.05	9.33	14.31
CV	0.62	0.54	—
Max	38	35	+21
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	34.67	18.92	+15.75
SD	14.59	8.43	18.81
CV	0.42	0.45	—
Max	56	30	+44
Min	3	7	-21

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns	10	7.81	+2.19
2	New York Yankees	8	6.15	+1.85
3	San Francisco 49ers	9	7.45	+1.55
4	Buffalo Bills (1st)	6	5.69	+0.31
5	Chicago Hornets	4	4.33	-0.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Colts (1st)	1	4.94	-3.94
2	Los Angeles Dons	4	5.64	-1.64
3	Chicago Hornets	4	4.33	-0.33
4	Buffalo Bills (1st)	6	5.69	+0.31
5	San Francisco 49ers	9	7.45	+1.55

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Yankees	5	Sep 22 – Oct 30	1 in 28
2	Chicago Hornets	2	Sep 9 – Sep 16	1 in 8
3	Cleveland Browns	4	Sep 11 – Oct 2	1 in 6
4	Buffalo Bills (1st)	2	Oct 23 – Nov 6	1 in 6
5	San Francisco 49ers	3	Aug 28 – Sep 18	1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Baltimore Colts (1st)	6	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 46
2	Los Angeles Dons	4	Sep 9 – Oct 2	1 in 15
3	Chicago Hornets	5	Oct 28 – Nov 24	1 in 9
4	Buffalo Bills (1st)	3	Oct 2 – Oct 16	1 in 9
5	San Francisco 49ers	2	Oct 23 – Oct 30	1 in 5

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3
New York Yankees	46.69%	32.41%	20.90%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	34.21%	36.97%	28.82%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	19.10%	30.62%	50.28%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns	49.73%	32.80%	13.93%	3.54%
San Francisco 49ers	39.08%	37.54%	17.85%	5.53%
Los Angeles Dons	9.11%	21.40%	42.75%	26.74%
Chicago Hornets	2.08%	8.26%	25.47%	64.19%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Cleveland Browns	40.51%	25.06%	15.24%	9.74%	5.18%	2.98%	1.29%
San Francisco 49ers	31.73%	25.04%	17.41%	12.10%	7.10%	4.32%	2.30%
New York Yankees	10.19%	15.93%	18.71%	18.17%	16.19%	12.45%	8.36%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	7.01%	11.66%	15.76%	17.83%	19.03%	16.24%	12.47%
Los Angeles Dons	6.47%	11.74%	15.58%	17.73%	17.97%	16.75%	13.76%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	2.97%	6.52%	10.49%	14.14%	18.75%	23.75%	23.38%
Chicago Hornets	1.12%	4.05%	6.81%	10.29%	15.78%	23.51%	38.44%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns	40.51%	25.06%	15.24%	9.74%	9.45%
San Francisco 49ers	31.73%	25.04%	17.41%	12.10%	13.72%
New York Yankees	10.19%	15.93%	18.71%	18.17%	37.00%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	7.01%	11.66%	15.76%	17.83%	47.74%
Los Angeles Dons	6.47%	11.74%	15.58%	17.73%	48.48%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	2.97%	6.52%	10.49%	14.14%	65.88%
Chicago Hornets	1.12%	4.05%	6.81%	10.29%	77.73%

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Cleveland Browns	61.70%	38.77%
San Francisco 49ers	55.93%	31.65%
New York Yankees	26.71%	10.66%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	20.99%	7.98%
Los Angeles Dons	19.39%	6.80%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	9.25%	2.39%
Chicago Hornets	6.03%	1.75%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts (1st)	Buffalo Bills (1st)	Chicago Hornets	Cleveland Browns	Los Angeles Dons	New York Yankees	San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)		0.36%	0.07%	0.81%	0.19%	0.34%	0.62%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	0.46%		0.29%	2.53%	1.08%	1.16%	2.46%
Chicago Hornets	0.14%	0.19%		0.47%	0.19%	0.23%	0.53%
Cleveland Browns	2.81%	5.49%	1.82%		5.69%	7.07%	15.89%
Los Angeles Dons	0.45%	0.92%	0.24%	2.14%		1.19%	1.86%
New York Yankees	0.86%	1.51%	0.42%	3.68%	1.27%		2.92%
San Francisco 49ers	2.14%	4.54%	1.44%	13.30%	4.17%	6.06%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Cleveland Browns	43.49%	Won Championship Game
San Francisco 49ers	34.70%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills (1st)	Cleveland Browns	New York Yankees	San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills (1st)			3.49%	6.08%
Cleveland Browns			15.66%	27.83%
New York Yankees	4.92%	7.32%
San Francisco 49ers	13.43%	21.27%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns 43.49% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

63.99%

Win Prob

56.68%

San Francisco 49ers 34.70% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

61.30%

Win Prob

43.32%

New York Yankees 12.24% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

59.80%

Win Prob

31.85%

Buffalo Bills (1st) 9.57% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

63.53%

Win Prob

31.16%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1949-08-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-31	1472.41	1559.11	30.79%	63.34%	-5.59	0-1
1949-09-02	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 17-49	1466.82	1486.65	39.53%	54.53%	-10.73	0-2
1949-09-11	@ Cleveland Browns	L 0-21	1456.09	1576.68	26.81%	67.38%	-5.98	0-3
1949-09-16	Chicago Hornets	L 7-35	1450.11	1419.83	55.97%	38.10%	-13.97	0-4
1949-09-25	Cleveland Browns	L 20-28	1436.14	1587.68	30.98%	63.15%	-4.24	0-5
1949-10-02	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 35-28	1431.90	1491.84	34.16%	59.94%	+7.46	1-5
1949-10-16	New York Yankees	L 21-24	1439.36	1505.19	42.37%	51.68%	-3.51	1-6
1949-10-23	Chicago Hornets	L 7-17	1435.85	1419.61	54.04%	40.02%	-8.07	1-7
1949-10-30	@ New York Yankees	L 14-21	1427.78	1520.59	30.05%	64.09%	-3.85	1-8
1949-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-28	1423.93	1583.65	29.98%	64.16%	-6.18	1-9
1949-11-20	Los Angeles Dons	L 10-21	1417.75	1465.73	44.90%	49.15%	-7.10	1-10
1949-11-27	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 14-38	1410.65	1481.58	41.65%	52.40%	-9.76	1-11
1949-08-26	@ Chicago Hornets	L 14-17	1491.37	1418.42	52.69%	41.37%	-4.31	0-1
1949-09-05	Cleveland Browns	T 28-28	1487.06	1576.86	39.03%	55.03%	+0.18	0-1
1949-09-11	New York Yankees	L 14-17	1487.24	1495.19	50.63%	43.42%	-4.16	0-2
1949-09-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-17	1483.08	1579.92	38.07%	56.00%	+8.76	1-2
1949-10-02	Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 28-35	1491.84	1431.90	59.94%	34.16%	-7.46	1-3
1949-10-09	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 28-42	1484.38	1473.61	43.82%	50.23%	-7.83	1-4
1949-10-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-51	1476.55	1589.33	27.69%	66.48%	-8.94	1-5
1949-10-23	Los Angeles Dons	W 17-14	1467.61	1469.32	51.52%	42.53%	+3.53	2-5
1949-11-06	@ New York Yankees	W 17-14	1471.14	1524.45	35.02%	59.07%	+4.81	3-5
1949-11-13	@ Cleveland Browns	T 7-7	1475.95	1609.12	25.41%	68.80%	+0.50	3-5
1949-11-20	Chicago Hornets	W 10-0	1476.45	1412.17	60.50%	33.60%	+5.13	4-5
1949-11-27	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 38-14	1481.58	1410.65	52.40%	41.65%	+9.77	5-5
1949-08-26	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 17-14	1418.42	1491.37	41.37%	52.69%	+4.31	1-0
1949-09-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-42	1422.73	1564.70	24.47%	69.76%	-7.07	1-1
1949-09-09	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 23-21	1415.66	1497.38	31.40%	62.72%	+4.17	2-1
1949-09-16	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 35-7	1419.83	1450.11	38.10%	55.97%	+13.96	3-1
1949-09-30	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-42	1433.79	1571.16	32.75%	61.36%	-6.72	3-2
1949-10-07	New York Yankees	L 24-38	1427.07	1497.73	41.69%	52.36%	-7.46	3-3
1949-10-23	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 17-7	1419.61	1435.85	40.02%	54.04%	+8.06	4-3
1949-10-28	Los Angeles Dons	L 14-24	1427.67	1465.80	46.31%	47.73%	-6.96	4-4
1949-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns	L 2-35	1420.71	1603.37	20.42%	73.89%	-5.76	4-5
1949-11-13	@ New York Yankees	L 10-14	1414.95	1519.63	28.63%	65.52%	-2.78	4-6
1949-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 0-10	1412.17	1476.45	33.60%	60.50%	-5.14	4-7
1949-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-14	1407.03	1619.19	17.82%	76.57%	-2.47	4-8
1949-09-05	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	T 28-28	1576.86	1487.06	55.03%	39.03%	-0.18	0-0
1949-09-11	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 21-0	1576.68	1456.09	67.38%	26.81%	+5.98	1-0
1949-09-18	New York Yankees	W 14-3	1582.66	1499.34	62.92%	31.20%	+5.02	2-0
1949-09-25	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 28-20	1587.68	1436.14	63.15%	30.98%	+4.24	3-0
1949-10-02	Los Angeles Dons	W 42-7	1591.92	1481.66	66.18%	27.98%	+8.06	4-0
1949-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-56	1599.98	1577.88	45.43%	48.62%	-11.45	4-1
1949-10-14	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 61-14	1588.53	1481.43	57.39%	36.69%	+12.11	5-1
1949-10-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-28	1600.64	1586.38	53.76%	40.30%	+2.73	6-1
1949-11-06	Chicago Hornets	W 35-2	1603.37	1420.71	73.89%	20.42%	+5.75	7-1
1949-11-13	Buffalo Bills (1st)	T 7-7	1609.12	1475.95	68.80%	25.41%	-0.49	7-1
1949-11-20	@ New York Yankees	W 31-0	1608.63	1522.42	54.54%	39.53%	+10.56	8-1
1949-11-24	Chicago Hornets	W 14-6	1619.19	1407.03	76.57%	17.82%	+2.47	9-1
1949-09-02	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 49-17	1486.65	1466.82	54.53%	39.53%	+10.73	1-0
1949-09-09	Chicago Hornets	L 21-23	1497.38	1415.66	62.72%	31.40%	-4.17	1-1
1949-09-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-42	1493.21	1571.77	31.79%	62.33%	-8.15	1-2
1949-09-22	@ New York Yankees	L 7-10	1485.06	1494.33	40.99%	53.06%	-3.40	1-3
1949-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-42	1481.66	1591.92	27.98%	66.18%	-8.05	1-4
1949-10-09	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 42-28	1473.61	1484.38	50.23%	43.82%	+7.82	2-4
1949-10-14	Cleveland Browns	L 14-61	1481.43	1588.53	36.69%	57.39%	-12.11	2-5
1949-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 14-17	1469.32	1467.61	42.53%	51.52%	-3.52	2-6
1949-10-28	@ Chicago Hornets	W 24-14	1465.80	1427.67	47.73%	46.31%	+6.96	3-6
1949-11-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-41	1472.76	1589.82	35.37%	58.72%	-7.03	3-7
1949-11-20	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 21-10	1465.73	1417.75	49.15%	44.90%	+7.10	4-7
1949-11-24	New York Yankees	L 16-17	1472.83	1511.86	46.18%	47.86%	-2.20	4-8
1949-09-11	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 17-14	1495.19	1487.24	43.42%	50.63%	+4.15	1-0
1949-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-14	1499.34	1582.66	31.20%	62.92%	-5.01	1-1
1949-09-22	Los Angeles Dons	W 10-7	1494.33	1485.06	53.06%	40.99%	+3.40	2-1
1949-10-07	@ Chicago Hornets	W 38-24	1497.73	1427.07	52.36%	41.69%	+7.46	3-1
1949-10-16	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 24-21	1505.19	1439.36	51.68%	42.37%	+3.51	4-1
1949-10-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-3	1508.70	1598.27	39.07%	55.00%	+11.89	5-1
1949-10-30	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 21-14	1520.59	1427.78	64.09%	30.05%	+3.86	6-1
1949-11-06	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 14-17	1524.45	1471.14	59.07%	35.02%	-4.82	6-2
1949-11-13	Chicago Hornets	W 14-10	1519.63	1414.95	65.52%	28.63%	+2.79	7-2
1949-11-20	Cleveland Browns	L 0-31	1522.42	1608.63	39.53%	54.54%	-10.56	7-3
1949-11-24	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 17-16	1511.86	1472.83	47.86%	46.18%	+2.19	8-3
1949-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-35	1514.05	1596.86	31.27%	62.86%	-6.94	8-4
1949-08-28	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 31-17	1559.11	1472.41	63.34%	30.79%	+5.59	1-0
1949-09-04	Chicago Hornets	W 42-7	1564.70	1422.73	69.76%	24.47%	+7.07	2-0
1949-09-18	Los Angeles Dons	W 42-14	1571.77	1493.21	62.33%	31.79%	+8.15	3-0
1949-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 17-28	1579.92	1483.08	56.00%	38.07%	-8.76	3-1
1949-09-30	@ Chicago Hornets	W 42-24	1571.16	1433.79	61.36%	32.75%	+6.72	4-1
1949-10-09	Cleveland Browns	W 56-28	1577.88	1599.98	48.62%	45.43%	+11.45	5-1
1949-10-16	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 51-7	1589.33	1476.55	66.48%	27.69%	+8.94	6-1
1949-10-23	@ New York Yankees	L 3-24	1598.27	1508.70	55.00%	39.07%	-11.89	6-2
1949-10-30	@ Cleveland Browns	L 28-30	1586.38	1600.64	40.30%	53.76%	-2.73	6-3
1949-11-06	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 28-10	1583.65	1423.93	64.16%	29.98%	+6.17	7-3
1949-11-13	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 41-24	1589.82	1472.76	58.72%	35.37%	+7.04	8-3
1949-11-27	New York Yankees	W 35-14	1596.86	1514.05	62.86%	31.27%	+6.94	9-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1949-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns	L 21-31	1491.35	1621.66	28.07%	71.93%	-3.97	0-1
1949-12-04	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 31-21	1621.66	1491.35	71.93%	28.07%	+3.97	1-0
1949-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-7	1625.63	1608.34	57.21%	42.79%	+7.16	2-0
1949-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-17	1507.11	1603.80	32.13%	67.87%	-4.54	0-1
1949-12-04	New York Yankees	W 17-7	1603.80	1507.11	67.87%	32.13%	+4.54	1-0
1949-12-11	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-21	1608.34	1625.63	42.79%	57.21%	-7.15	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1949-09-09	31.40%	Chicago Hornets	1415.66	23	@ Los Angeles Dons	1497.38	21
2	1949-10-02	34.16%	Baltimore Colts (1st)	1431.90	35	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	1491.84	28
3	1949-11-06	35.02%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	1471.14	17	@ New York Yankees	1524.45	14
4	1949-09-25	38.07%	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	1483.08	28	San Francisco 49ers	1579.92	17
5	1949-09-16	38.10%	Chicago Hornets	1419.83	35	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	1450.11	7
6	1949-10-23	39.07%	@ New York Yankees	1508.70	24	San Francisco 49ers	1598.27	3
7	1949-10-23	40.02%	Chicago Hornets	1419.61	17	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	1435.85	7
8	1949-08-26	41.37%	@ Chicago Hornets	1418.42	17	Buffalo Bills (1st)	1491.37	14
9	1949-09-11	43.42%	New York Yankees	1495.19	17	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	1487.24	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1949-09-16	13.97	Chicago Hornets	35	1419.83	38.10%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	7	1450.11	55.97%
2	1949-10-14	12.11	Cleveland Browns	61	1588.53	57.39%	@ Los Angeles Dons	14	1481.43	36.69%
3	1949-10-23	11.89	@ New York Yankees	24	1508.70	39.07%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1598.27	55.00%
4	1949-10-09	11.45	@ San Francisco 49ers	56	1577.88	48.62%	Cleveland Browns	28	1599.98	45.43%
5	1949-09-02	10.73	@ Los Angeles Dons	49	1486.65	54.53%	Baltimore Colts (1st)	17	1466.82	39.53%
6	1949-11-20	10.56	Cleveland Browns	31	1608.63	54.54%	@ New York Yankees	0	1522.42	39.53%
7	1949-11-27	9.77	Buffalo Bills (1st)	38	1481.58	52.40%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	14	1410.65	41.65%
8	1949-10-16	8.94	@ San Francisco 49ers	51	1589.33	66.48%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	7	1476.55	27.69%
9	1949-09-25	8.76	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	28	1483.08	38.07%	San Francisco 49ers	17	1579.92	56.00%
10	1949-09-18	8.15	@ San Francisco 49ers	42	1571.77	62.33%	Los Angeles Dons	14	1493.21	31.79%
11	1949-10-23	8.07	Chicago Hornets	17	1419.61	40.02%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	7	1435.85	54.04%
12	1949-10-02	8.06	@ Cleveland Browns	42	1591.92	66.18%	Los Angeles Dons	7	1481.66	27.98%
13	1949-10-09	7.83	@ Los Angeles Dons	42	1473.61	50.23%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	28	1484.38	43.82%
14	1949-10-07	7.46	New York Yankees	38	1497.73	52.36%	@ Chicago Hornets	24	1427.07	41.69%
15	1949-10-02	7.46	Baltimore Colts (1st)	35	1431.90	34.16%	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	28	1491.84	59.94%
16	1949-12-11 *	7.16	@ Cleveland Browns	21	1625.63	57.21%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1608.34	42.79%
17	1949-11-20	7.10	Los Angeles Dons	21	1465.73	49.15%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	10	1417.75	44.90%
18	1949-09-04	7.07	@ San Francisco 49ers	42	1564.70	69.76%	Chicago Hornets	7	1422.73	24.47%
19	1949-11-13	7.04	San Francisco 49ers	41	1589.82	58.72%	@ Los Angeles Dons	24	1472.76	35.37%
20	1949-10-28	6.96	Los Angeles Dons	24	1465.80	47.73%	@ Chicago Hornets	14	1427.67	46.31%
21	1949-11-27	6.94	@ San Francisco 49ers	35	1596.86	62.86%	New York Yankees	14	1514.05	31.27%
22	1949-09-30	6.72	San Francisco 49ers	42	1571.16	61.36%	@ Chicago Hornets	24	1433.79	32.75%
23	1949-11-06	6.18	San Francisco 49ers	28	1583.65	64.16%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	10	1423.93	29.98%
24	1949-09-11	5.98	@ Cleveland Browns	21	1576.68	67.38%	Baltimore Colts (1st)	0	1456.09	26.81%
25	1949-11-06	5.76	@ Cleveland Browns	35	1603.37	73.89%	Chicago Hornets	2	1420.71	20.42%