2025 NFL Season

272 games played · 32 teams · 100,000 simulations

Live

Champion

Seattle Seahawks

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2013

Runner-Up

New England Patriots

12th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2018

Biggest Overachiever

Jacksonville Jaguars

3.86 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.14 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Arizona Cardinals

3.96 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.96 expected wins

Current Standings

Each team's record through games played. SimW is the model's expected wins through the same games — the sum of pregame win probabilities over completed games. vsSim shows actual wins minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	14	3	.824	—	490	320	+170	10.21	+3.79
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	12	5	.706	2	481	365	+116	11.66	+0.34
3	Miami Dolphins	7	10	.412	7	347	424	-77	7.85	-0.85
4	New York Jets	3	14	.176	11	300	503	-203	5.60	-2.60

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	7	.588	—	397	387	+10	8.80	+1.20
2	Baltimore Ravens	8	9	.471	2	424	398	+26	9.67	-1.67
3	Cincinnati Bengals	6	11	.353	4	414	492	-78	7.36	-1.36
4	Cleveland Browns	5	12	.294	5	279	379	-100	5.62	-0.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Jacksonville Jaguars Division	13	4	.765	—	474	336	+138	9.14	+3.86
2	Houston Texans Playoffs	12	5	.706	1	404	295	+109	9.91	+2.09
3	Indianapolis Colts	8	9	.471	5	466	412	+54	8.87	-0.87
4	Tennessee Titans	3	14	.176	10	284	478	-194	4.12	-1.12

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	14	3	.824	—	401	311	+90	10.82	+3.18
2	Los Angeles Chargers Playoffs	11	6	.647	3	368	340	+28	9.64	+1.36
3	Kansas City Chiefs	6	11	.353	8	362	328	+34	9.79	-3.79
4	Las Vegas Raiders	3	14	.176	11	241	432	-191	5.44	-2.44

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	11	6	0	.647	—	379	325	+54	11.38	-0.38
2	Dallas Cowboys	7	9	1	.441	3.5	471	511	-40	7.72	-0.22
3	Washington Commanders	5	12	0	.294	6	356	451	-95	7.68	-2.68
4	New York Giants	4	13	0	.235	7	381	439	-58	5.32	-1.32

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	6	0	.647	—	441	415	+26	8.13	+2.87
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	9	7	1	.559	1.5	391	360	+31	10.71	-1.21
3	Detroit Lions	9	8	0	.529	2	481	413	+68	10.23	-1.23
4	Minnesota Vikings	9	8	0	.529	2	344	333	+11	8.37	+0.63

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	8	9	.471	—	311	380	-69	6.81	+1.19
2	Atlanta Falcons	8	9	.471	—	353	401	-48	7.08	+0.92
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	9	.471	—	380	411	-31	9.55	-1.55
4	New Orleans Saints	6	11	.353	2	306	383	-77	6.41	-0.41

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	14	3	.824	—	483	292	+191	10.97	+3.03
2	San Francisco 49ers Playoffs	12	5	.706	2	437	371	+66	9.04	+2.96
3	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	12	5	.706	2	518	346	+172	11.13	+0.87
4	Arizona Cardinals	3	14	.176	11	355	488	-133	6.96	-3.96

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Buffalo Bills 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Jan 11

New England Patriots 16

Los Angeles Chargers 3

Jan 11

Houston Texans 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 6

Jan 12

Divisional Round

Denver Broncos 33

Buffalo Bills 30

Jan 17

New England Patriots 28

Houston Texans 16

Jan 18

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 10

Denver Broncos 7

Jan 25

NFC

Wild Card Round

Los Angeles Rams 34

Carolina Panthers 31

Jan 10

Chicago Bears 31

Green Bay Packers 27

Jan 10

San Francisco 49ers 23

Philadelphia Eagles 19

Jan 11

Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks 41

San Francisco 49ers 6

Jan 17

Los Angeles Rams 20

Chicago Bears 17

Jan 18

Conference Championship

Seattle Seahawks 31

Los Angeles Rams 27

Jan 25

Super Bowl

Seattle Seahawks 29

New England Patriots 13

Feb 8

Current Playoff Probabilities

Current playoff probabilities according to the model. Teams under 2% are pooled into the "Others" category. Hover or tap a segment for the team and its exact odds.

Hover or tap on a team

AFC · 8 spots

NFC · 8 spots

Each bar is one group’s playoff spots, divided by how likely the model thinks each team is to claim one. Teams under 2% are pooled into a gray “Others.”

Changes in Playoff Odds

Which teams are surging into contention and which ones are slipping out of it over the last 14 days?

Biggest Improvements

#	Team	Δ	Now
1	Arizona Cardinals	+0.00%	0.00%
2	Atlanta Falcons	+0.00%	0.00%
3	Cincinnati Bengals	+0.00%	0.00%
4	Cleveland Browns	+0.00%	0.00%
5	Dallas Cowboys	+0.00%	0.00%

Biggest Losers

#	Team	Δ	Now
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-37.10%	0.00%
2	Indianapolis Colts	-5.20%	0.00%
3	Detroit Lions	-4.30%	0.00%
4	Baltimore Ravens	-2.70%	0.00%
5	Arizona Cardinals	+0.00%	0.00%

Recent Elo Movers

What are the hottest and coldest teams over the last 14 days according to their Elo ratings?

Biggest Elo Gainers

#	Team	Δ Elo	Current Elo
1	New York Giants	+92.19	1389
2	Cleveland Browns	+56.96	1370
3	Minnesota Vikings	+49.49	1560
4	Denver Broncos	+42.41	1690
5	Baltimore Ravens	+38.90	1552

Biggest Elo Losers

#	Team	Δ Elo	Current Elo
1	Green Bay Packers	-63.90	1559
2	Indianapolis Colts	-62.90	1456
3	Los Angeles Chargers	-43.25	1558
4	Arizona Cardinals	-37.88	1309
5	Kansas City Chiefs	-37.22	1458

Season Summary

Every team's current record alongside their projected end-of-season totals from 10,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Exp. Wins Rem. is the average number of additional wins the model expects each team to add between now and the end of the regular season.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Record	Avg. Wins	Exp. Wins Rem.	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1751	14-3	10.96	-3.04	2	8	10	11	12	14	17
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1690	14-3	10.82	-3.18	4	8	10	11	12	14	17
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1687	12-5	9.90	-2.10	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1687	12-5	11.13	-0.87	3	8	10	11	12	14	17
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1671	13-4	9.14	-3.86	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1660	12-5	11.67	-0.33	5	9	10	12	13	15	17
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1647	14-3	10.18	-3.82	4	7	9	10	11	13	17
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1613	12-5	9.05	-2.95	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1589	11-6	11.40	0.40	4	8	10	11	13	14	17
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1566	9-8	10.22	1.22	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1560	9-8	8.39	-0.61	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1559	9-7-1	10.72	1.22	4	8	9	11	12	14	17
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1558	11-6	9.66	-1.34	2	6	8	10	11	13	17
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1555	11-6	8.12	-2.88	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1552	8-9	9.64	1.64	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1536	10-7	8.84	-1.16	2	6	7	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1458	6-11	9.78	3.78	3	7	8	10	11	13	17
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1456	8-9	8.85	0.85	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1455	8-9	7.08	-0.92	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1451	8-9	9.56	1.56	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1449	6-11	7.37	1.37	1	4	6	7	9	11	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1409	7-9-1	7.69	0.19	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1409	6-11	6.43	0.43	0	3	5	6	8	10	13
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1405	7-10	7.88	0.88	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1396	8-9	6.79	-1.21	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Washington Commanders	NFC	NFC East	1393	5-12	7.69	2.69	0	5	6	8	9	11	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1389	4-13	5.29	1.29	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1370	5-12	5.60	0.60	0	3	4	5	7	9	13
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1309	3-14	6.97	3.97	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1281	3-14	4.13	1.13	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1253	3-14	5.62	2.62	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1234	3-14	5.41	2.41	0	3	4	5	7	8	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-4 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	—
New York Jets	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (0.8 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—
Las Vegas Raiders	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
Los Angeles Chargers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Commanders
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Washington Commanders	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-3-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Commanders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (3.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.55%	0.55%	1.47%	1.65%	0.37%	—	4.60%
7–13	0.55%	1.84%	3.86%	2.76%	2.39%	1.29%	0.92%	13.60%
14–20	0.55%	3.86%	5.88%	7.90%	3.12%	1.84%	0.37%	23.53%
21–27	1.47%	2.76%	7.90%	8.46%	4.96%	1.47%	1.47%	28.49%
28–34	1.65%	2.39%	3.12%	4.96%	4.04%	1.10%	0.37%	17.65%
35–41	0.37%	1.29%	1.84%	1.47%	1.10%	2.21%	0.18%	8.46%
42+	—	0.92%	0.37%	1.47%	0.37%	0.18%	0.37%	3.68%
Total	4.60%	13.60%	23.53%	28.49%	17.65%	8.46%	3.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.01	23.01	+0.00
SD	9.94	9.94	14.31
CV	0.43	0.43	—
Max	52	52	+38
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 272

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	17.65%	5.88%	52.94%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	23.53%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	47.06%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	17.65%	35.29%	5.88%	23.53%	11.76%	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.88	28.71	-7.82
SD	3.94	10.24	11.43
CV	0.19	0.36	—
Max	27	45	+10
Min	14	13	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	11.76%	—	—	52.94%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	29.41%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.76	23.59	-2.82
SD	8.69	8.41	13.58
CV	0.42	0.36	—
Max	34	37	+16
Min	0	6	-30

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
14–20	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
28–34	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	5.88%	29.41%	17.65%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.94	23.41	+1.53
SD	10.23	12.47	16.66
CV	0.41	0.53	—
Max	41	44	+24
Min	3	0	-34

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	17.65%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	29.41%
42+	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
Total	—	29.41%	11.76%	29.41%	23.53%	5.88%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.29	21.47	+6.82
SD	10.18	9.82	12.66
CV	0.36	0.46	—
Max	44	40	+31
Min	12	7	-17

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	5.88%	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	5.88%	5.88%	41.18%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	5.88%	29.41%	35.29%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.29	22.35	-4.06
SD	8.67	10.52	14.42
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	31	42	+30
Min	7	0	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	23.53%	17.65%	5.88%	—	5.88%	52.94%
28–34	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
Total	5.88%	—	41.18%	17.65%	17.65%	—	17.65%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.94	24.41	+1.53
SD	7.86	12.20	12.72
CV	0.30	0.50	—
Max	47	52	+28
Min	16	3	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	11.76%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	11.76%
Total	—	—	23.53%	29.41%	17.65%	17.65%	11.76%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.35	28.94	-4.59
SD	13.50	10.56	16.89
CV	0.55	0.36	—
Max	45	48	+24
Min	0	14	-38

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	35.29%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	23.53%	—	5.88%	—	41.18%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	11.76%	11.76%	35.29%	23.53%	5.88%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.41	22.29	-5.88
SD	7.29	10.16	14.23
CV	0.44	0.46	—
Max	31	41	+25
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	11.76%	17.65%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	5.88%	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	—	—	5.88%	35.29%	35.29%	11.76%	11.76%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.71	30.06	-2.35
SD	9.10	8.26	12.83
CV	0.33	0.27	—
Max	44	44	+22
Min	14	16	-20

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	35.29%
21–27	—	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	11.76%	23.53%	23.53%	23.53%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.59	18.29	+5.29
SD	8.19	9.53	8.96
CV	0.35	0.52	—
Max	44	34	+25
Min	10	3	-14

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
Total	—	11.76%	11.76%	41.18%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.29	24.29	+4.00
SD	12.63	8.14	14.09
CV	0.45	0.33	—
Max	52	41	+31
Min	9	9	-14

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	47.06%
28–34	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	17.65%	29.41%	29.41%	5.88%	11.76%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	21.18	+1.82
SD	9.96	9.69	9.48
CV	0.43	0.46	—
Max	40	41	+17
Min	3	6	-17

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	11.76%	23.53%	5.88%	—	—	—	41.18%
21–27	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	5.88%	17.65%	52.94%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.76	17.35	+6.41
SD	10.21	7.36	11.39
CV	0.43	0.42	—
Max	44	30	+34
Min	9	0	-8

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	11.76%	23.53%	—	5.88%	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
35–41	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	41.18%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.41	24.24	+3.18
SD	8.80	10.34	15.48
CV	0.32	0.43	—
Max	41	48	+34
Min	16	6	-21

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	35.29%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	23.53%
35–41	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	11.76%	17.65%	29.41%	11.76%	17.65%	11.76%	—	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.88	19.76	+8.12
SD	9.98	10.08	15.67
CV	0.36	0.51	—
Max	48	36	+34
Min	7	3	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	23.53%	5.88%	—	—	—	29.41%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	47.06%	17.65%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.29	19.29	+2.00
SD	8.22	8.43	12.60
CV	0.39	0.44	—
Max	37	31	+31
Min	9	0	-17

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	17.65%
7–13	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
14–20	—	17.65%	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	35.29%
21–27	—	—	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
28–34	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	5.88%	23.53%	35.29%	11.76%	—	100%

Las Vegas Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.18	25.41	-11.24
SD	8.37	9.84	13.48
CV	0.59	0.39	—
Max	29	41	+10
Min	0	10	-34

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
28–34	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	41.18%	23.53%	—	11.76%	—	100%

Los Angeles Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.65	20.00	+1.65
SD	9.40	8.16	14.43
CV	0.43	0.41	—
Max	37	38	+27
Min	3	9	-29

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	23.53%
42+	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	5.88%	23.53%	29.41%	17.65%	17.65%	5.88%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.47	20.35	+10.12
SD	8.91	10.57	11.92
CV	0.29	0.52	—
Max	45	38	+28
Min	14	3	-7

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	—	5.88%	41.18%
28–34	—	17.65%	—	—	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	11.76%	11.76%	41.18%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.41	24.94	-4.53
SD	9.12	10.27	16.91
CV	0.45	0.41	—
Max	34	45	+24
Min	6	10	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	17.65%	—	—	—	17.65%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
14–20	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	35.29%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	11.76%	17.65%	11.76%	47.06%	5.88%	5.88%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.24	19.59	+0.65
SD	11.58	9.62	17.51
CV	0.57	0.49	—
Max	48	37	+38
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
21–27	—	—	23.53%	5.88%	—	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	11.76%	5.88%	17.65%	—	5.88%	—	41.18%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	—	29.41%	35.29%	29.41%	—	5.88%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.82	18.82	+10.00
SD	8.06	6.59	12.25
CV	0.28	0.35	—
Max	42	35	+32
Min	13	10	-7

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	23.53%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	29.41%	41.18%	11.76%	—	5.88%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	22.53	-4.53
SD	7.56	9.20	13.84
CV	0.42	0.41	—
Max	34	44	+23
Min	3	6	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	17.65%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	23.53%	29.41%	29.41%	11.76%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.41	25.82	-3.41
SD	9.41	8.67	12.37
CV	0.42	0.34	—
Max	37	40	+24
Min	6	10	-18

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	35.29%
14–20	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	11.76%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.76%	5.88%	23.53%	29.41%	17.65%	11.76%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.65	29.59	-11.94
SD	10.05	9.41	12.09
CV	0.57	0.32	—
Max	39	48	+7
Min	6	13	-32

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	29.41%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	17.65%	23.53%	47.06%	5.88%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	19.12	+3.18
SD	8.01	8.17	10.88
CV	0.36	0.43	—
Max	38	34	+31
Min	10	0	-17

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
21–27	—	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	—	5.88%	—	41.18%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	35.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	17.65%	17.65%	35.29%	23.53%	5.88%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.35	22.76	+0.59
SD	8.62	8.07	11.05
CV	0.37	0.35	—
Max	34	35	+22
Min	6	9	-19

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	35.29%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	17.65%	—	—	5.88%	29.41%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
Total	—	29.41%	5.88%	47.06%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.71	21.82	+3.88
SD	11.53	9.70	11.32
CV	0.45	0.44	—
Max	48	42	+21
Min	3	8	-16

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	—	23.53%
42+	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	11.76%	23.53%	35.29%	17.65%	—	11.76%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.41	17.18	+11.24
SD	9.93	9.98	11.53
CV	0.35	0.58	—
Max	44	38	+31
Min	13	0	-4

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	23.53%	11.76%	—	—	—	35.29%
21–27	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	—	35.29%	23.53%	23.53%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.35	24.18	-1.82
SD	7.85	9.33	10.29
CV	0.35	0.39	—
Max	38	44	+20
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	17.65%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
14–20	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	23.53%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	17.65%	23.53%	29.41%	23.53%	—	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.71	28.12	-11.41
SD	8.67	8.98	12.31
CV	0.52	0.32	—
Max	31	41	+17
Min	0	9	-34

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	11.76%	52.94%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	29.41%	29.41%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Washington Commanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	26.53	-5.59
SD	9.20	10.53	15.09
CV	0.44	0.40	—
Max	41	44	+17
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 17

Record Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	10	Sep 28 – Dec 1	1 in 260
2	Denver Broncos	11	Sep 29 – Dec 14	1 in 165
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	8	Nov 16 – Jan 4	1 in 70
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	Dec 11 – Jan 4	1 in 65
5	Houston Texans	9	Nov 9 – Jan 4	1 in 54

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Chiefs	6	Nov 27 – Jan 4	1 in 681
2	Washington Commanders	8	Oct 13 – Dec 7	1 in 127
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	Dec 7 – Dec 28	1 in 76
4	Arizona Cardinals	9	Nov 9 – Jan 4	1 in 38
5	New York Jets	7	Sep 7 – Oct 19	1 in 37

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	68.50%	25.61%	5.40%	0.49%
New England Patriots	26.42%	52.73%	17.93%	2.92%
Miami Dolphins	4.70%	18.37%	56.20%	20.73%
New York Jets	0.38%	3.29%	20.47%	75.86%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	52.60%	29.53%	13.95%	3.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers	33.92%	37.55%	21.72%	6.81%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.10%	24.88%	41.79%	22.23%
Cleveland Browns	2.38%	8.04%	22.54%	67.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	46.83%	30.68%	21.06%	1.43%
Jacksonville Jaguars	30.77%	34.83%	31.68%	2.72%
Indianapolis Colts	22.21%	33.31%	40.58%	3.90%
Tennessee Titans	0.19%	1.18%	6.68%	91.95%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	49.46%	30.86%	18.20%	1.48%
Kansas City Chiefs	26.29%	34.02%	34.85%	4.84%
Los Angeles Chargers	23.89%	33.06%	37.33%	5.72%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.36%	2.06%	9.62%	87.96%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	83.59%	13.15%	2.83%	0.43%
Dallas Cowboys	8.25%	38.30%	37.17%	16.28%
Washington Commanders	7.47%	39.77%	37.06%	15.70%
New York Giants	0.69%	8.78%	22.94%	67.59%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	46.00%	29.82%	16.54%	7.64%
Detroit Lions	35.50%	33.41%	20.19%	10.90%
Minnesota Vikings	10.08%	19.12%	33.38%	37.42%
Chicago Bears	8.42%	17.65%	29.89%	44.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	65.88%	21.09%	9.32%	3.71%
Atlanta Falcons	14.58%	30.31%	29.63%	25.48%
Carolina Panthers	12.03%	27.09%	30.48%	30.40%
New Orleans Saints	7.51%	21.51%	30.57%	40.41%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	46.42%	34.57%	15.72%	3.29%
Seattle Seahawks	40.71%	35.91%	18.34%	5.04%
San Francisco 49ers	11.36%	23.21%	43.33%	22.10%
Arizona Cardinals	1.51%	6.31%	22.61%	69.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Buffalo Bills	31.51%	19.13%	13.61%	9.76%	6.93%	6.31%	4.09%	3.31%	2.25%	1.28%	1.00%	0.49%	0.21%	0.09%	0.03%	—
Denver Broncos	17.01%	15.72%	13.28%	10.54%	9.18%	8.32%	6.83%	5.56%	4.68%	3.66%	2.63%	1.53%	0.67%	0.29%	0.08%	0.02%
New England Patriots	9.60%	9.98%	10.36%	10.73%	11.21%	10.32%	9.84%	7.76%	6.27%	4.98%	3.94%	2.42%	1.46%	0.71%	0.31%	0.11%
Houston Texans	8.51%	10.03%	10.48%	10.50%	10.05%	9.47%	8.76%	8.11%	6.84%	5.79%	4.94%	3.50%	1.64%	0.89%	0.32%	0.17%
Baltimore Ravens	7.43%	9.19%	9.94%	10.43%	9.89%	8.70%	8.84%	7.98%	7.05%	6.25%	5.17%	4.04%	2.56%	1.46%	0.77%	0.30%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.14%	8.65%	9.06%	9.49%	9.93%	8.74%	8.91%	8.31%	7.93%	7.59%	5.63%	3.89%	1.91%	1.19%	0.48%	0.15%
Los Angeles Chargers	6.65%	8.37%	8.46%	9.12%	9.32%	8.93%	8.49%	8.80%	8.86%	7.39%	5.94%	4.65%	2.60%	1.57%	0.63%	0.22%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.84%	6.02%	7.72%	8.15%	8.33%	9.31%	9.26%	9.84%	8.62%	8.07%	7.83%	6.17%	3.51%	1.94%	0.95%	0.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.15%	5.14%	6.49%	7.66%	7.83%	8.72%	9.48%	9.37%	9.38%	8.30%	7.80%	7.17%	4.30%	2.94%	1.68%	0.59%
Indianapolis Colts	2.69%	4.65%	5.43%	6.69%	8.20%	8.84%	9.11%	9.59%	9.62%	9.94%	9.54%	7.59%	4.07%	2.34%	1.14%	0.56%
Miami Dolphins	0.85%	1.73%	2.60%	3.49%	4.04%	5.28%	6.62%	7.71%	10.48%	11.91%	12.25%	11.75%	9.05%	6.04%	4.53%	1.67%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.50%	1.13%	2.00%	2.39%	3.43%	4.49%	5.57%	7.56%	8.21%	10.45%	11.69%	13.88%	11.44%	8.47%	5.83%	2.96%
Cleveland Browns	0.04%	0.08%	0.28%	0.53%	0.67%	1.01%	1.58%	2.31%	3.18%	5.07%	6.95%	10.05%	15.86%	18.22%	18.94%	15.23%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.09%	0.14%	0.27%	0.48%	0.88%	1.36%	1.88%	3.43%	4.75%	7.30%	10.13%	15.98%	18.82%	19.96%	14.48%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.03%	0.06%	0.11%	0.24%	0.38%	0.59%	0.98%	1.45%	2.45%	3.38%	5.17%	8.70%	16.76%	20.97%	21.35%	17.38%
Tennessee Titans	—	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.13%	0.09%	0.28%	0.46%	0.75%	1.19%	2.22%	4.04%	7.98%	14.06%	23.00%	45.72%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Philadelphia Eagles	24.50%	19.56%	16.55%	11.12%	8.53%	6.22%	4.42%	3.09%	2.21%	1.50%	0.93%	0.60%	0.44%	0.20%	0.07%	0.06%
Los Angeles Rams	19.73%	16.70%	14.04%	11.51%	10.06%	7.75%	6.26%	4.45%	3.32%	2.34%	1.51%	1.06%	0.59%	0.44%	0.23%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	16.84%	15.64%	12.79%	11.83%	10.75%	8.17%	6.76%	5.07%	3.99%	2.87%	2.00%	1.35%	1.00%	0.60%	0.27%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	14.54%	14.59%	13.22%	11.63%	9.61%	8.69%	6.93%	5.53%	4.48%	3.55%	2.79%	1.80%	1.31%	0.82%	0.41%	0.10%
Detroit Lions	10.28%	11.42%	11.12%	11.15%	10.44%	9.95%	7.57%	6.65%	5.53%	4.57%	4.07%	2.64%	2.09%	1.41%	0.70%	0.41%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.52%	7.59%	10.19%	12.53%	11.46%	9.58%	8.69%	7.34%	6.78%	5.23%	4.38%	3.65%	2.98%	1.93%	1.39%	0.76%
San Francisco 49ers	3.44%	4.44%	5.62%	7.16%	7.72%	8.71%	9.36%	9.73%	8.77%	8.86%	7.26%	5.73%	4.86%	4.03%	2.87%	1.44%
Minnesota Vikings	1.66%	2.90%	4.08%	4.80%	6.64%	7.20%	7.96%	8.65%	8.92%	9.20%	8.35%	8.01%	7.52%	6.94%	4.64%	2.53%
Chicago Bears	1.23%	2.26%	3.36%	4.56%	5.74%	6.66%	7.20%	7.62%	8.57%	8.90%	8.72%	8.82%	8.70%	8.21%	5.97%	3.48%
Dallas Cowboys	0.82%	1.39%	2.53%	3.21%	4.20%	6.34%	7.65%	8.16%	8.91%	9.21%	9.77%	9.21%	8.83%	7.73%	6.33%	5.71%
Washington Commanders	0.57%	1.31%	2.35%	3.02%	4.13%	6.24%	7.61%	8.91%	9.23%	9.48%	9.75%	8.94%	9.49%	7.40%	6.80%	4.77%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%	0.68%	1.29%	2.44%	3.75%	4.40%	5.77%	6.77%	7.53%	8.28%	9.32%	9.96%	9.74%	10.01%	10.58%	9.10%
Carolina Panthers	0.13%	0.59%	1.13%	1.98%	2.76%	3.76%	4.86%	5.92%	6.50%	7.90%	8.98%	10.30%	10.33%	10.66%	12.08%	12.12%
Arizona Cardinals	0.26%	0.59%	0.92%	1.35%	2.00%	3.11%	4.03%	5.47%	6.68%	7.72%	9.08%	10.66%	12.33%	14.53%	12.42%	8.85%
New Orleans Saints	0.08%	0.30%	0.69%	1.49%	1.76%	2.48%	3.48%	4.74%	5.86%	6.97%	7.81%	10.42%	10.87%	12.16%	14.76%	16.13%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.04%	0.12%	0.22%	0.45%	0.74%	1.45%	1.90%	2.72%	3.42%	5.28%	6.85%	8.92%	12.93%	20.48%	34.46%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Buffalo Bills	17.26%	13.38%	10.00%	9.23%	7.32%	6.85%	5.08%	4.67%	3.99%	3.87%	3.24%	2.46%	2.23%	2.02%	1.67%	1.54%	1.18%	1.01%	0.77%	0.52%	0.40%	0.49%	0.20%	0.28%	0.14%	0.08%	0.05%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—
Philadelphia Eagles	14.59%	11.53%	10.08%	8.43%	8.31%	6.77%	6.07%	5.15%	4.61%	3.96%	3.20%	2.96%	2.63%	2.20%	1.87%	1.50%	1.24%	1.14%	0.86%	0.57%	0.62%	0.38%	0.42%	0.28%	0.23%	0.15%	0.12%	0.04%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	11.01%	9.44%	9.24%	7.67%	7.17%	6.63%	6.22%	5.24%	5.19%	4.86%	4.10%	3.41%	3.12%	2.95%	2.45%	2.06%	1.80%	1.55%	1.15%	1.05%	0.85%	0.72%	0.61%	0.35%	0.38%	0.26%	0.28%	0.08%	0.10%	0.05%	0.01%	—
Seattle Seahawks	9.25%	8.62%	8.16%	7.50%	7.00%	6.59%	6.00%	5.51%	4.94%	4.77%	4.43%	3.75%	3.49%	3.07%	2.89%	2.22%	2.10%	1.94%	1.46%	1.44%	1.24%	0.80%	0.62%	0.57%	0.60%	0.36%	0.28%	0.19%	0.11%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	7.71%	8.93%	7.90%	8.02%	6.26%	6.87%	5.59%	5.68%	4.95%	4.26%	4.52%	4.02%	3.59%	3.30%	2.78%	2.69%	2.49%	1.82%	1.72%	1.56%	1.34%	1.27%	0.79%	0.70%	0.39%	0.48%	0.14%	0.11%	0.09%	0.02%	0.01%	—
Green Bay Packers	7.67%	7.79%	7.36%	7.49%	6.95%	5.92%	5.93%	5.57%	4.75%	4.69%	4.55%	3.70%	3.83%	3.08%	3.26%	2.58%	2.40%	2.07%	2.09%	1.68%	1.48%	1.11%	1.25%	0.74%	0.67%	0.47%	0.42%	0.20%	0.12%	0.14%	0.04%	—
Detroit Lions	5.12%	5.18%	6.09%	5.92%	5.97%	5.30%	5.74%	5.18%	5.38%	5.04%	4.76%	4.61%	4.18%	3.72%	3.60%	3.08%	2.97%	2.59%	2.57%	2.24%	2.30%	1.74%	1.53%	1.17%	1.06%	1.01%	0.67%	0.53%	0.24%	0.31%	0.15%	0.05%
New England Patriots	3.94%	5.19%	4.76%	5.86%	5.11%	5.55%	5.36%	6.00%	5.22%	5.84%	4.79%	5.36%	4.37%	4.88%	3.66%	4.08%	3.01%	3.13%	2.33%	2.39%	1.96%	2.03%	1.10%	1.19%	0.77%	0.76%	0.56%	0.25%	0.22%	0.20%	0.09%	0.04%
Houston Texans	4.13%	4.14%	4.79%	5.30%	4.90%	5.08%	5.06%	5.44%	5.71%	4.66%	5.07%	4.87%	4.26%	4.39%	4.28%	3.76%	3.42%	3.34%	2.98%	3.02%	2.25%	2.38%	1.51%	1.72%	0.96%	1.03%	0.48%	0.44%	0.29%	0.17%	0.14%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.35%	4.08%	4.34%	4.39%	4.83%	4.61%	5.01%	4.95%	5.16%	4.95%	4.76%	4.39%	4.46%	4.23%	3.99%	4.36%	4.37%	3.62%	3.21%	3.46%	2.52%	2.90%	1.81%	1.75%	1.19%	1.12%	0.69%	0.65%	0.41%	0.26%	0.14%	0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	3.16%	3.84%	4.19%	4.71%	4.76%	5.38%	5.13%	4.65%	4.75%	5.35%	4.35%	4.78%	4.21%	4.32%	4.04%	4.28%	3.25%	3.91%	3.11%	2.95%	2.66%	2.59%	1.87%	2.11%	1.42%	1.19%	0.88%	0.84%	0.49%	0.43%	0.30%	0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.82%	3.01%	4.07%	3.63%	4.92%	4.95%	5.30%	5.88%	5.59%	5.66%	4.43%	4.79%	4.70%	4.34%	3.83%	3.60%	3.73%	3.71%	3.01%	2.59%	2.47%	2.21%	2.24%	2.02%	1.66%	1.25%	1.15%	0.75%	0.79%	0.44%	0.33%	0.13%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.61%	3.77%	3.89%	4.16%	4.26%	4.75%	5.12%	4.84%	4.50%	4.45%	4.56%	4.85%	4.31%	4.04%	4.57%	4.39%	4.60%	3.73%	3.84%	3.41%	2.75%	2.80%	2.08%	2.09%	1.62%	1.30%	0.82%	0.86%	0.44%	0.27%	0.20%	0.12%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.51%	2.25%	2.63%	2.91%	3.68%	3.89%	4.11%	4.22%	4.36%	4.52%	4.48%	4.65%	4.46%	5.16%	4.61%	4.84%	3.97%	4.56%	3.89%	4.23%	3.45%	3.68%	2.49%	3.25%	2.06%	1.76%	1.35%	1.18%	0.87%	0.48%	0.25%	0.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.23%	1.79%	2.32%	2.42%	3.06%	3.30%	3.48%	4.05%	4.11%	4.05%	4.23%	4.39%	4.67%	4.97%	4.57%	4.38%	4.49%	4.76%	4.07%	4.10%	3.72%	4.03%	3.15%	3.62%	2.59%	2.28%	1.66%	1.62%	1.10%	0.96%	0.57%	0.26%
San Francisco 49ers	1.47%	1.89%	2.47%	2.50%	2.95%	2.95%	3.40%	3.74%	3.68%	4.23%	4.29%	4.85%	4.57%	4.55%	4.66%	4.98%	4.28%	4.53%	4.59%	4.36%	3.86%	3.45%	3.22%	2.72%	2.60%	2.18%	2.35%	1.59%	1.37%	0.76%	0.79%	0.17%
Indianapolis Colts	0.85%	1.59%	1.82%	2.44%	2.73%	3.16%	3.11%	3.47%	4.03%	4.29%	4.78%	4.36%	4.68%	4.64%	4.60%	4.95%	4.94%	4.52%	4.68%	5.08%	4.24%	4.32%	3.37%	3.50%	2.51%	2.08%	1.62%	1.31%	0.89%	0.78%	0.47%	0.19%
Minnesota Vikings	0.67%	0.96%	1.46%	1.43%	1.96%	2.12%	2.61%	2.74%	3.21%	3.03%	3.65%	3.62%	4.45%	3.64%	4.78%	4.33%	4.61%	4.46%	4.75%	4.31%	4.91%	4.03%	4.57%	4.19%	4.02%	3.38%	3.75%	2.58%	2.47%	1.57%	1.26%	0.48%
Chicago Bears	0.51%	0.64%	1.06%	1.21%	1.60%	1.95%	2.21%	2.28%	2.71%	2.94%	3.43%	3.43%	3.60%	3.57%	4.34%	3.99%	3.93%	4.31%	4.88%	4.75%	5.04%	4.24%	5.08%	3.98%	4.71%	4.29%	4.15%	3.58%	2.97%	2.11%	1.76%	0.75%
Miami Dolphins	0.29%	0.40%	0.67%	1.09%	1.27%	1.41%	1.65%	1.90%	1.87%	2.32%	2.57%	3.16%	3.53%	3.32%	4.05%	4.11%	5.44%	4.58%	5.48%	5.17%	5.22%	6.14%	5.19%	5.66%	4.61%	4.58%	3.70%	2.92%	2.63%	2.57%	1.67%	0.83%
Dallas Cowboys	0.23%	0.41%	0.70%	0.91%	0.98%	1.40%	1.57%	1.73%	1.76%	2.34%	2.93%	3.14%	3.36%	4.34%	3.57%	4.12%	4.51%	4.59%	4.62%	5.18%	5.06%	4.80%	5.20%	4.62%	4.97%	4.54%	4.58%	3.40%	3.43%	2.83%	2.53%	1.65%
Washington Commanders	0.22%	0.33%	0.57%	0.70%	1.03%	1.19%	1.60%	1.43%	1.92%	2.28%	2.78%	3.11%	3.67%	4.12%	3.98%	4.43%	4.52%	5.05%	4.88%	4.75%	5.22%	4.98%	5.27%	4.26%	5.03%	4.99%	4.16%	3.85%	3.37%	2.69%	2.55%	1.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.18%	0.19%	0.37%	0.72%	0.90%	0.92%	1.22%	1.36%	1.66%	1.70%	1.99%	2.47%	2.86%	2.99%	3.68%	3.50%	4.26%	4.29%	4.97%	4.88%	5.11%	5.67%	5.90%	6.68%	5.71%	5.53%	4.77%	4.62%	3.53%	3.54%	2.19%	1.64%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%	0.30%	0.23%	0.38%	0.68%	0.63%	0.89%	1.29%	1.75%	1.71%	1.83%	2.06%	2.85%	3.11%	2.98%	3.66%	3.71%	4.04%	4.22%	4.50%	5.02%	4.70%	5.35%	5.18%	5.81%	5.46%	5.59%	5.05%	5.69%	4.38%	4.39%	2.48%
Carolina Panthers	0.03%	0.09%	0.30%	0.23%	0.46%	0.69%	0.75%	1.07%	1.34%	1.22%	1.67%	2.02%	2.19%	2.09%	2.67%	3.04%	3.16%	3.77%	3.89%	4.15%	4.83%	4.95%	5.66%	4.88%	6.02%	5.62%	6.37%	5.46%	6.28%	5.92%	5.74%	3.44%
Arizona Cardinals	0.08%	0.09%	0.31%	0.36%	0.41%	0.40%	0.73%	0.78%	0.97%	1.05%	1.70%	1.56%	1.85%	2.20%	2.94%	2.71%	3.01%	3.38%	4.08%	4.56%	5.17%	4.80%	6.03%	5.95%	6.39%	6.59%	7.41%	6.59%	6.21%	4.98%	4.23%	2.48%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.08%	0.11%	0.19%	0.34%	0.39%	0.55%	0.59%	0.90%	0.87%	1.10%	1.30%	1.48%	1.92%	2.10%	2.51%	2.55%	3.16%	3.32%	3.78%	4.26%	4.67%	5.85%	4.98%	6.00%	6.21%	7.03%	6.56%	7.96%	6.47%	7.28%	5.48%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.03%	0.08%	0.13%	0.23%	0.25%	0.37%	0.35%	0.49%	0.58%	0.70%	0.75%	1.11%	0.99%	1.56%	1.76%	2.21%	2.71%	2.87%	3.49%	4.02%	5.37%	5.89%	7.33%	7.05%	10.05%	9.09%	10.77%	9.71%	9.99%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.04%	0.05%	0.06%	0.14%	0.14%	0.24%	0.26%	0.55%	0.50%	0.50%	0.65%	0.86%	1.43%	1.53%	1.76%	2.39%	2.27%	3.11%	3.78%	4.41%	5.19%	6.24%	7.16%	7.49%	9.39%	9.30%	11.18%	9.63%	9.66%
Las Vegas Raiders	—	0.02%	—	0.06%	0.03%	0.09%	0.07%	0.11%	0.15%	0.25%	0.30%	0.35%	0.42%	0.58%	0.78%	0.78%	1.23%	1.18%	1.83%	1.72%	2.31%	2.75%	3.90%	4.87%	6.07%	7.64%	7.90%	10.17%	10.13%	12.34%	10.33%	11.64%
New York Giants	—	0.03%	0.01%	0.05%	0.02%	0.05%	0.06%	0.09%	0.18%	0.20%	0.40%	0.45%	0.61%	0.75%	0.69%	0.85%	1.40%	1.38%	1.69%	1.97%	2.64%	2.97%	3.78%	3.94%	5.04%	5.33%	7.54%	7.74%	10.87%	10.82%	15.23%	13.22%
Tennessee Titans	—	—	—	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	—	0.05%	0.03%	0.07%	0.05%	0.17%	0.11%	0.14%	0.26%	0.34%	0.36%	0.46%	0.65%	1.12%	1.13%	1.53%	2.19%	2.64%	3.59%	4.99%	7.37%	8.48%	12.47%	17.96%	33.78%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	31.51%	19.11%	11.52%	6.36%	10.17%	7.58%	4.94%	8.81%
Denver Broncos	17.01%	15.70%	10.95%	5.80%	12.48%	10.19%	8.16%	19.71%
New England Patriots	9.60%	8.17%	5.54%	3.11%	18.53%	14.90%	11.40%	28.75%
Houston Texans	8.51%	10.92%	13.92%	13.48%	5.92%	7.33%	8.13%	31.79%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.14%	8.21%	6.26%	3.68%	13.68%	11.88%	9.97%	38.18%
Baltimore Ravens	7.43%	10.08%	14.27%	20.82%	3.58%	4.44%	6.04%	33.34%
Los Angeles Chargers	6.65%	7.93%	5.89%	3.42%	13.03%	11.25%	9.91%	41.92%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.84%	6.35%	10.12%	10.46%	5.31%	7.64%	8.92%	47.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.15%	5.58%	9.22%	15.97%	3.37%	5.51%	7.46%	49.74%
Indianapolis Colts	2.69%	4.91%	7.13%	7.48%	5.80%	8.14%	9.15%	54.70%
Miami Dolphins	0.85%	1.50%	1.42%	0.93%	5.34%	5.99%	7.36%	76.61%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.50%	1.27%	2.96%	6.37%	1.70%	2.97%	4.77%	79.46%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.07%	0.10%	0.16%	0.44%	0.85%	1.33%	97.00%
Cleveland Browns	0.04%	0.11%	0.54%	1.69%	0.29%	0.69%	1.21%	95.43%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.03%	0.06%	0.09%	0.18%	0.31%	0.55%	1.00%	97.78%
Tennessee Titans	—	0.03%	0.07%	0.09%	0.05%	0.09%	0.25%	99.42%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	24.50%	21.34%	23.94%	13.81%	2.16%	2.95%	3.18%	8.12%
Los Angeles Rams	19.73%	15.31%	8.79%	2.59%	19.30%	11.23%	7.87%	15.18%
Seattle Seahawks	16.84%	14.18%	7.41%	2.28%	19.91%	12.67%	8.11%	18.60%
Green Bay Packers	14.54%	14.73%	12.20%	4.53%	12.34%	11.05%	8.62%	21.99%
Detroit Lions	10.28%	11.61%	9.66%	3.95%	12.53%	13.15%	9.36%	29.46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.52%	8.42%	15.84%	36.10%	1.02%	2.00%	3.27%	27.83%
San Francisco 49ers	3.44%	3.75%	2.93%	1.24%	10.93%	10.68%	11.31%	55.72%
Minnesota Vikings	1.66%	2.97%	3.55%	1.90%	5.89%	8.36%	8.76%	66.91%
Chicago Bears	1.23%	2.32%	3.25%	1.62%	4.91%	7.79%	8.24%	70.64%
Dallas Cowboys	0.82%	1.57%	3.14%	2.72%	3.29%	5.66%	8.09%	74.71%
Washington Commanders	0.57%	1.47%	3.00%	2.43%	3.30%	5.82%	7.85%	75.56%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%	0.78%	2.45%	10.97%	0.84%	2.02%	3.88%	78.68%
Arizona Cardinals	0.26%	0.48%	0.53%	0.24%	2.00%	3.00%	4.48%	89.01%
Carolina Panthers	0.13%	0.67%	1.92%	9.31%	0.72%	1.68%	3.14%	82.43%
New Orleans Saints	0.08%	0.33%	1.17%	5.93%	0.55%	1.33%	2.50%	88.11%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.07%	0.22%	0.38%	0.31%	0.61%	1.34%	97.05%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks	65.63%	65.63%	46.35%	31.69%	19.73%
Los Angeles Rams	65.09%	64.65%	40.29%	24.10%	12.89%
Denver Broncos	63.28%	58.62%	36.43%	20.68%	11.18%
Buffalo Bills	68.55%	68.55%	39.53%	21.32%	10.80%
Houston Texans	59.70%	48.43%	29.02%	16.74%	9.14%
New England Patriots	61.65%	44.08%	23.76%	12.26%	6.19%
Jacksonville Jaguars	48.80%	33.71%	19.40%	10.88%	5.82%
Philadelphia Eagles	67.38%	62.30%	30.53%	13.00%	5.14%
Green Bay Packers	63.47%	47.43%	20.49%	7.82%	3.12%
San Francisco 49ers	40.84%	26.05%	13.39%	6.48%	3.04%
Detroit Lions	60.26%	41.74%	18.70%	7.22%	2.81%
Baltimore Ravens	59.23%	36.60%	15.17%	5.72%	2.35%
Los Angeles Chargers	51.43%	29.52%	11.99%	4.59%	1.62%
Pittsburgh Steelers	47.11%	23.73%	8.80%	3.22%	1.31%
Minnesota Vikings	31.43%	17.04%	7.67%	3.00%	1.16%
Chicago Bears	28.13%	14.42%	6.08%	2.24%	0.96%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	66.65%	28.94%	8.56%	2.43%	0.73%
Kansas City Chiefs	53.68%	24.61%	7.21%	2.20%	0.68%
Indianapolis Colts	42.61%	16.55%	4.96%	1.42%	0.38%
Cincinnati Bengals	20.04%	7.24%	2.04%	0.50%	0.22%
Atlanta Falcons	20.94%	7.27%	2.23%	0.68%	0.19%
Miami Dolphins	22.54%	6.46%	1.44%	0.42%	0.12%
Carolina Panthers	17.44%	4.80%	1.18%	0.31%	0.12%
New Orleans Saints	11.81%	3.32%	0.89%	0.25%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	24.47%	7.22%	1.78%	0.35%	0.08%
Washington Commanders	23.87%	6.34%	1.31%	0.34%	0.08%
Cleveland Browns	4.53%	1.00%	0.20%	0.05%	0.03%
Arizona Cardinals	10.73%	2.15%	0.40%	0.06%	0.01%
New York Giants	2.93%	0.70%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%
New York Jets	2.95%	0.50%	0.02%	—	—
Tennessee Titans	0.58%	0.06%	0.03%	—	—
Las Vegas Raiders	2.19%	0.34%	—	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		2.19%	1.32%	0.25%	2.63%	1.56%	2.46%	1.38%	4.19%	0.27%	3.43%	2.29%	3.76%	0.40%	2.99%	0.05%
Buffalo Bills	3.90%		1.97%	0.62%	2.56%	2.44%	3.97%	2.21%	4.28%	0.28%	3.37%	2.66%	4.96%	0.28%	3.47%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.72%	0.62%		0.06%	0.59%	0.30%	0.63%	0.38%	1.04%	0.02%	0.62%	0.46%	0.68%	0.06%	0.53%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns	0.10%	0.10%	0.04%		0.07%	0.05%	0.08%	0.03%	0.13%	0.01%	0.10%	0.04%	0.13%	0.02%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	4.49%	2.82%	1.85%	0.40%		3.67%	4.00%	3.44%	5.78%	0.21%	4.78%	2.23%	3.62%	0.22%	4.02%	0.08%
Houston Texans	3.20%	3.49%	1.54%	0.47%	3.36%		4.19%	3.76%	5.21%	0.28%	4.55%	2.35%	3.99%	0.30%	3.16%	0.07%
Indianapolis Colts	1.47%	1.23%	0.74%	0.19%	1.24%	1.08%		0.80%	2.20%	0.09%	1.46%	0.88%	1.26%	0.14%	1.06%	0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.70%	2.73%	0.93%	0.28%	2.46%	2.92%	2.80%		4.11%	0.15%	3.42%	1.74%	3.06%	0.27%	2.28%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.12%	1.25%	0.97%	0.32%	1.39%	1.27%	2.12%	1.06%		0.08%	1.54%	0.99%	1.12%	0.16%	2.05%	0.03%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.06%	0.04%			0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.03%	0.01%	0.03%		0.04%
Los Angeles Chargers	3.05%	1.69%	1.09%	0.30%	2.21%	1.98%	2.57%	1.87%	2.69%	0.14%		1.01%	1.78%	0.26%	2.17%	0.06%
Miami Dolphins	0.98%	0.60%	0.28%	0.05%	0.37%	0.45%	0.48%	0.28%	0.61%	0.05%	0.40%		0.34%	0.02%	0.68%	0.02%
New England Patriots	4.73%	4.20%	1.80%	0.50%	2.86%	2.77%	3.38%	2.63%	3.73%	0.14%	2.51%	1.05%		0.16%	3.98%	0.04%
New York Jets	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%	0.07%	0.03%	0.10%		0.02%		0.03%		0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.51%	1.62%	0.76%	0.12%	1.84%	1.23%	1.99%	1.03%	3.12%	0.16%	2.33%	1.22%	2.41%	0.21%		0.03%
Tennessee Titans		0.01%			0.03%	0.01%			0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.09%	0.09%	0.03%	0.11%	0.20%	0.18%	0.14%	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%	0.32%	0.04%	0.10%	0.43%	0.07%
Atlanta Falcons	0.23%		0.06%	0.34%	0.53%	0.67%	0.81%	0.82%	0.31%	0.10%	0.02%	0.54%	0.56%	0.58%	0.87%	0.45%
Carolina Panthers	0.21%	0.06%		0.32%	0.25%	0.66%	0.46%	0.37%	0.28%	0.08%	0.03%	0.45%	0.36%	0.29%	0.52%	0.33%
Chicago Bears	0.25%	0.52%	0.58%		0.54%	1.46%	1.74%	0.85%	0.44%	0.38%	0.08%	1.93%	0.58%	0.59%	2.52%	0.73%
Dallas Cowboys	0.11%	0.32%	0.27%	0.34%		0.80%	0.83%	0.49%	0.30%	0.20%	0.02%	0.98%	0.26%	0.28%	0.97%	0.23%
Detroit Lions	1.01%	1.81%	1.30%	1.58%	2.15%		4.90%	1.80%	1.90%	0.91%	0.24%	3.38%	1.87%	1.35%	5.26%	2.00%
Green Bay Packers	0.82%	1.71%	1.50%	2.05%	2.39%	4.36%		1.76%	2.22%	1.09%	0.34%	3.45%	2.11%	1.55%	5.16%	2.38%
Los Angeles Rams	1.30%	2.87%	2.28%	1.96%	2.51%	4.15%	4.10%		2.24%	1.68%	0.28%	4.73%	2.76%	3.63%	7.81%	2.62%
Minnesota Vikings	0.37%	0.62%	0.50%	0.65%	0.60%	1.59%	1.95%	1.07%		0.47%	0.11%	2.23%	0.78%	0.90%	2.81%	0.73%
New Orleans Saints	0.11%	0.05%	0.07%	0.12%	0.17%	0.50%	0.35%	0.35%	0.15%		0.01%	0.21%	0.24%	0.24%	0.49%	0.18%
New York Giants		0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.10%	0.03%	0.05%			0.18%	0.07%	0.05%	0.08%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.86%	1.14%	1.21%	2.75%	3.79%	4.46%	4.08%	3.19%	3.17%	0.71%	0.37%		3.26%	2.57%	1.94%	3.30%
San Francisco 49ers	0.26%	0.97%	1.17%	0.88%	0.98%	2.07%	2.52%	1.72%	0.84%	0.64%	0.11%	3.25%		1.39%	4.92%	0.89%
Seattle Seahawks	1.18%	2.68%	2.63%	2.23%	2.33%	4.41%	4.81%	4.94%	2.27%	1.48%	0.33%	6.00%	2.84%		8.37%	2.29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.97%	0.99%	0.81%	1.48%	1.52%	2.91%	3.01%	2.22%	1.50%	0.70%	0.28%	0.98%	2.25%	1.92%		1.88%
Washington Commanders	0.16%	0.21%	0.27%	0.19%	0.19%	0.53%	0.74%	0.42%	0.32%	0.12%	0.01%	0.95%	0.25%	0.33%	1.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		2.57%	0.23%		2.20%	1.97%	0.97%	1.30%	1.38%	0.02%	1.48%	0.36%	1.90%	0.03%	0.76%
Buffalo Bills	4.31%		1.48%	0.27%	5.11%	4.69%	2.72%	3.30%	3.50%	0.14%	3.73%	1.12%	5.38%	0.13%	3.63%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.10%	0.42%			0.35%	0.26%	0.13%	0.05%	0.17%		0.24%	0.06%	0.16%		0.10%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.03%			0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	4.14%	5.54%	0.94%	0.14%		4.49%	2.40%	3.56%	3.40%	0.06%	3.45%	0.88%	4.21%	0.10%	3.12%
Houston Texans	4.10%	5.45%	0.70%	0.08%	4.12%		1.32%	1.72%	2.49%	0.04%	2.57%	0.64%	3.17%	0.10%	2.52%
Indianapolis Colts	0.60%	0.91%	0.12%	0.01%	0.78%	0.41%		0.22%	0.40%		0.55%	0.15%	0.46%		0.35%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.52%	3.91%	0.41%	0.09%	2.79%	1.45%	0.74%		1.58%		1.92%	0.53%	1.85%	0.02%	1.59%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.74%	1.12%	0.24%	0.07%	1.03%	0.74%	0.53%	0.51%		0.01%	0.62%	0.22%	0.85%		0.53%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.43%	2.18%	0.30%	0.05%	1.45%	1.33%	0.69%	0.97%	1.17%	0.03%		0.27%	1.27%	0.03%	0.81%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.15%	0.32%	0.06%		0.11%	0.12%	0.13%	0.06%	0.23%	0.01%	0.08%		0.08%	0.01%	0.08%
New England Patriots	2.80%	4.82%	0.63%	0.09%	2.96%	2.87%	1.34%	1.84%	2.28%	0.02%	2.12%	0.53%		0.02%	1.44%
New York Jets		0.01%						0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.53%	1.74%	0.09%		1.27%	1.06%	0.58%	0.76%	0.76%	0.01%	0.74%	0.25%	0.98%	0.03%
Tennessee Titans									0.02%		0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.01%		0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%			0.12%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.05%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%		0.01%	0.12%	0.04%	0.30%	0.39%	0.27%	0.07%			0.48%	0.14%	0.21%	0.12%	0.06%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.02%		0.03%	0.03%	0.17%	0.22%	0.12%	0.01%	0.01%		0.25%	0.06%	0.14%	0.08%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	0.05%	0.09%	0.05%		0.11%	0.71%	0.84%	0.89%	0.12%	0.01%	0.02%	1.30%	0.29%	0.75%	0.76%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.07%	0.04%	0.09%		0.24%	0.23%	0.25%	0.05%			0.21%	0.09%	0.20%	0.26%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	0.19%	0.55%	0.41%	0.76%	0.48%		2.97%	2.60%	0.85%	0.24%	0.10%	3.54%	0.99%	2.17%	2.28%	0.57%
Green Bay Packers	0.20%	0.66%	0.43%	0.76%	0.63%	2.93%		3.33%	0.86%	0.23%	0.07%	3.70%	1.48%	2.64%	1.93%	0.64%
Los Angeles Rams	0.36%	0.98%	0.87%	1.87%	1.16%	5.23%	6.16%		2.09%	0.46%	0.15%	7.13%	2.96%	6.24%	3.65%	0.98%
Minnesota Vikings	0.06%	0.15%	0.09%	0.12%	0.20%	0.66%	1.04%	1.11%		0.02%	0.02%	1.76%	0.44%	1.10%	0.69%	0.21%
New Orleans Saints					0.03%	0.10%	0.17%	0.10%				0.31%	0.04%	0.04%	0.04%	0.06%
New York Giants	0.01%			0.01%		0.02%	0.04%	0.01%				0.02%			0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.35%	1.16%	0.73%	1.55%	0.91%	4.06%	4.43%	3.76%	1.86%	0.63%	0.06%		2.32%	3.49%	4.45%	0.77%
San Francisco 49ers	0.06%	0.21%	0.12%	0.43%	0.33%	1.84%	2.18%	2.00%	0.56%	0.13%	0.01%	2.94%		1.29%	1.05%	0.24%
Seattle Seahawks	0.32%	1.05%	0.80%	2.18%	1.19%	5.59%	6.54%	8.62%	2.39%	0.62%	0.11%	7.88%	3.21%		4.77%	1.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.06%	0.05%	0.37%	0.30%	1.06%	1.51%	1.10%	0.42%	0.06%	0.01%	1.94%	0.57%	0.83%		0.22%
Washington Commanders	0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.11%	0.18%	0.17%	0.08%	0.02%		0.19%	0.06%	0.15%	0.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.35%	0.06%		1.09%	0.86%	0.24%	0.76%	0.28%	0.35%	0.05%	0.50%		0.18%
Buffalo Bills	2.15%		0.40%	0.04%	5.05%	3.44%	0.81%	2.32%	1.28%	1.90%	0.16%	2.39%	0.01%	1.36%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.10%			0.09%	0.13%		0.04%	0.01%	0.03%		0.06%		0.01%
Cleveland Browns			0.01%		0.01%	0.01%				0.01%		0.01%
Denver Broncos	2.20%	5.30%	0.24%	0.03%		3.30%	0.76%	2.15%	0.84%	1.31%	0.23%	3.09%		1.22%	0.01%
Houston Texans	1.72%	4.01%	0.34%	0.01%	3.34%		0.52%	1.14%	0.76%	1.16%	0.23%	2.55%		0.96%
Indianapolis Colts	0.20%	0.28%	0.05%		0.25%	0.13%		0.07%	0.08%	0.12%		0.14%		0.10%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.99%	2.72%	0.20%	0.03%	1.90%	1.23%	0.32%		0.43%	0.91%	0.11%	1.40%		0.63%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.15%	0.50%	0.03%		0.35%	0.33%	0.11%	0.18%		0.14%	0.02%	0.29%		0.10%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.41%	1.16%	0.05%		0.59%	0.61%	0.20%	0.41%	0.22%		0.03%	0.58%		0.33%
Miami Dolphins	0.06%	0.05%	0.01%		0.06%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%		0.06%
New England Patriots	1.17%	2.21%	0.12%	0.03%	2.55%	1.70%	0.48%	1.09%	0.85%	1.25%	0.12%			0.69%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.37%	0.53%	0.03%	0.01%	0.47%	0.43%	0.09%	0.34%	0.24%	0.20%	0.07%	0.43%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals						0.01%	0.02%	0.01%				0.02%
Atlanta Falcons				0.03%	0.04%	0.09%	0.07%	0.16%	0.01%			0.11%	0.02%	0.14%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers				0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.07%	0.02%			0.04%	0.01%	0.06%	0.01%
Chicago Bears		0.04%	0.04%		0.02%	0.10%	0.19%	0.53%	0.03%	0.02%		0.37%	0.17%	0.48%	0.19%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys				0.02%		0.02%	0.05%	0.05%				0.03%	0.08%	0.08%	0.02%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.13%	0.07%	0.27%	0.12%		0.88%	1.54%	0.31%	0.06%		1.27%	0.52%	1.57%	0.41%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%	0.10%	0.09%	0.19%	0.12%	0.81%		1.67%	0.29%	0.06%	0.02%	1.51%	0.53%	1.81%	0.55%	0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	0.05%	0.33%	0.22%	1.18%	0.31%	3.06%	3.55%		1.33%	0.13%	0.02%	5.31%	1.65%	4.93%	1.73%	0.30%
Minnesota Vikings		0.05%	0.03%	0.12%	0.05%	0.27%	0.30%	0.59%			0.01%	0.62%	0.16%	0.57%	0.16%	0.07%
New Orleans Saints						0.03%	0.05%	0.06%				0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.02%
New York Giants						0.01%						0.01%		0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.23%	0.09%	0.54%	0.05%	1.55%	1.77%	3.11%	0.63%	0.06%			0.97%	3.16%	0.70%	0.11%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.10%	0.06%	0.18%	0.10%	0.96%	0.75%	1.22%	0.21%	0.06%		1.08%		1.29%	0.38%	0.06%
Seattle Seahawks	0.15%	0.54%	0.26%	1.16%	0.56%	4.21%	4.67%	6.68%	1.65%	0.24%	0.07%	6.75%	2.56%		1.92%	0.27%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%		0.01%	0.14%	0.05%	0.27%	0.29%	0.45%	0.19%	0.01%		0.36%	0.19%	0.44%		0.02%
Washington Commanders	0.01%	0.03%				0.06%	0.03%	0.05%				0.04%	0.03%	0.06%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals														0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%	0.05%						0.05%			0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%				0.01%				0.01%
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%			0.01%	0.03%					0.31%	0.22%						0.50%		0.04%		0.02%		0.42%		0.16%	0.55%	0.05%	0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.11%			0.01%	0.29%			0.07%		0.90%	0.95%						2.38%		0.45%		0.05%		1.68%		0.66%	2.79%	0.42%	0.02%
Carolina Panthers			0.01%	0.03%						0.03%			0.04%		0.01%
Chicago Bears			0.06%	0.22%						0.19%			0.15%	0.02%	0.13%	0.05%	0.04%				0.04%				0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.01%				0.01%					0.04%	0.03%						0.05%		0.01%						0.01%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns						0.01%					0.01%																	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys				0.02%											0.01%						0.03%				0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.01%	0.16%			0.04%	0.30%			0.07%		0.94%	0.91%						2.67%		0.44%		0.04%		1.64%		0.91%	2.70%	0.30%	0.05%
Detroit Lions			0.12%	0.64%			0.02%			0.56%			0.42%	0.03%	0.25%	0.02%	0.21%		0.02%		0.44%				0.08%
Green Bay Packers			0.19%	0.69%			0.01%			0.65%			0.47%	0.04%	0.30%	0.08%	0.16%		0.02%		0.40%				0.11%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.07%			0.06%	0.29%			0.05%		0.78%	0.96%						2.07%		0.34%		0.01%	0.01%	1.51%		0.57%	2.01%	0.34%	0.05%
Indianapolis Colts						0.01%					0.03%	0.04%						0.08%		0.02%				0.02%		0.05%	0.10%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.03%			0.02%	0.13%			0.05%		0.46%	0.51%						1.15%		0.19%		0.01%	0.01%	0.92%		0.48%	1.64%	0.16%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs					0.01%	0.01%					0.05%	0.08%						0.17%		0.03%		0.01%		0.11%		0.05%	0.14%	0.01%	0.01%
Los Angeles Chargers		0.01%				0.04%					0.21%	0.12%						0.33%		0.04%		0.01%		0.38%		0.06%	0.36%	0.06%
Los Angeles Rams			0.90%	2.91%			0.11%			2.43%			1.87%	0.24%	1.32%	0.32%	0.81%		0.08%		1.41%				0.49%
Miami Dolphins					0.01%						0.02%	0.02%						0.02%						0.01%			0.04%
Minnesota Vikings			0.14%	0.25%			0.02%			0.18%			0.17%	0.02%	0.08%	0.09%	0.04%		0.01%		0.11%				0.05%
New England Patriots		0.07%			0.03%	0.13%			0.02%		0.56%	0.72%						1.49%		0.23%				0.92%		0.39%	1.34%	0.25%	0.04%
New Orleans Saints				0.02%						0.02%			0.02%		0.01%						0.01%				0.01%
New York Giants													0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.31%	0.82%			0.02%			1.02%			0.93%	0.13%	0.50%	0.19%	0.31%		0.05%		0.67%				0.19%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.02%				0.03%			0.01%		0.10%	0.14%						0.30%		0.05%		0.01%		0.25%		0.10%	0.23%	0.07%
San Francisco 49ers			0.21%	0.64%			0.01%			0.51%			0.40%	0.07%	0.29%	0.12%	0.21%		0.02%		0.47%				0.09%
Seattle Seahawks			1.32%	4.06%			0.08%	0.02%		3.78%			3.04%	0.45%	2.02%	0.58%	1.11%		0.10%		2.39%				0.78%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.09%	0.17%			0.01%			0.07%			0.06%	0.01%	0.11%	0.06%	0.06%				0.07%				0.02%
Washington Commanders			0.01%							0.01%				0.01%	0.02%		0.01%				0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Seattle Seahawks	100.00%	70.53%	46.98%	26.83%	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	59.69%	32.30%	15.32%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Los Angeles Rams	82.45%	45.03%	22.63%	11.87%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Houston Texans	67.19%	34.27%	17.64%	9.46%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Jacksonville Jaguars	55.65%	29.63%	15.53%	8.07%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New England Patriots	66.13%	33.51%	16.16%	7.68%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	44.35%	20.56%	10.55%	5.24%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	49.88%	25.26%	9.14%	3.82%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
San Francisco 49ers	50.12%	18.95%	8.31%	3.60%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	52.63%	23.84%	7.43%	2.87%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	47.37%	12.51%	4.92%	2.10%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	32.81%	10.86%	3.88%	1.56%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Chargers	33.87%	11.48%	3.94%	1.43%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Carolina Panthers	17.55%	3.88%	0.59%	0.15%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Los Angeles Chargers	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills			44.35%
Houston Texans						67.19%
Jacksonville Jaguars	55.65%
Los Angeles Chargers					33.87%
New England Patriots				66.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers		32.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Carolina Panthers				17.55%
Chicago Bears			52.63%
Green Bay Packers		47.37%
Los Angeles Rams	82.45%
Philadelphia Eagles						49.88%
San Francisco 49ers					50.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Los Angeles Chargers	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		13.08%	4.30%				3.18%
Denver Broncos	16.19%		13.03%		22.39%		8.08%
Houston Texans	5.63%	12.05%		6.01%		10.58%
Jacksonville Jaguars			6.63%			18.72%	4.28%
Los Angeles Chargers		11.48%
New England Patriots			8.96%	18.14%			6.41%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.97%	3.70%		1.87%		3.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers		1.35%			0.82%	1.16%	0.55%
Chicago Bears	3.19%			8.37%	12.28%
Green Bay Packers							12.51%
Los Angeles Rams		13.76%			11.52%	11.72%	8.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.39%	13.68%		8.19%
San Francisco 49ers	3.04%			7.53%			8.38%
Seattle Seahawks	4.05%		34.86%	13.33%		18.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Los Angeles Chargers	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		2.41%	2.17%		1.72%	3.38%	0.87%
Denver Broncos	2.49%		6.81%	9.68%		10.42%	2.90%
Houston Texans	2.41%	6.87%		2.78%	2.72%	2.86%
Jacksonville Jaguars		8.38%	3.27%		2.42%		1.46%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.86%		1.24%	1.15%			0.69%
New England Patriots	3.69%	8.27%	3.14%				1.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.56%	1.46%		0.49%	0.68%	0.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers		0.03%	0.14%		0.11%	0.06%	0.25%
Chicago Bears	0.18%			1.29%		1.67%	4.29%
Green Bay Packers	0.33%			2.15%	1.32%	1.12%
Los Angeles Rams		2.45%	4.06%		2.57%	2.68%	10.87%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.23%		1.74%	1.72%			5.45%
San Francisco 49ers	0.31%	1.76%	1.65%	1.90%			2.69%
Seattle Seahawks	2.24%	12.17%		15.34%	12.12%	5.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	New England Patriots	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.03%	0.49%		0.30%				1.18%		0.49%		0.55%	2.20%
Carolina Panthers				0.08%		0.03%	0.03%			0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.22%			1.00%		0.46%	0.41%	0.22%		0.38%		0.18%
Denver Broncos		0.18%	1.53%		0.92%				3.35%		1.73%		1.46%	6.15%
Green Bay Packers	0.22%			0.76%		0.27%	0.26%	0.15%		0.31%		0.13%
Houston Texans		0.04%	0.76%		0.53%				2.36%		0.93%		0.85%	3.99%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.07%	0.73%		0.48%				1.74%		0.95%		0.73%	3.37%
Los Angeles Chargers			0.17%		0.06%				0.29%		0.16%		0.18%	0.57%
Los Angeles Rams	1.35%			3.85%		1.78%	1.69%	0.50%		2.14%		0.56%
New England Patriots		0.11%	0.72%		0.43%				1.50%		0.91%		0.81%	3.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.34%			1.33%		0.51%	0.51%	0.27%		0.72%		0.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.01%	0.16%		0.10%				0.34%		0.15%		0.13%	0.67%
San Francisco 49ers	0.40%			1.14%		0.62%	0.65%	0.13%		0.48%		0.18%
Seattle Seahawks	2.78%			8.82%		4.51%	3.91%	1.24%		4.44%		1.13%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Seattle Seahawks 26.83% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

49.43%

Win Prob

73.59%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

32.65%

Win Prob

58.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

32.87%

Win Prob

58.92%

Denver Broncos 15.32% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

37.51%

Win Prob

66.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

32.26%

Win Prob

55.75%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

40.14%

Win Prob

41.08%

Los Angeles Rams 11.87% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

82.45%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

30.56%

Win Prob

62.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

48.03%

Win Prob

41.47%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

32.43%

Win Prob

53.47%

Houston Texans 9.46% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.19%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

35.16%

Win Prob

48.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.95%

Win Prob

50.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

42.18%

Win Prob

46.94%

Jacksonville Jaguars 8.07% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.65%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

63.18%

Win Prob

50.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

53.96%

Win Prob

46.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

41.76%

Win Prob

46.29%

New England Patriots 7.68% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.13%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

54.13%

Win Prob

49.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

51.18%

Win Prob

44.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

41.67%

Win Prob

41.88%

Buffalo Bills 5.24% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.35%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

63.62%

Win Prob

44.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

32.04%

Win Prob

47.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

41.98%

Win Prob

44.18%

Philadelphia Eagles 3.82% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.88%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

54.16%

Win Prob

52.70%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

59.63%

Win Prob

31.02%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.82%

Win Prob

43.46%

San Francisco 49ers 3.60% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.12%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

44.22%

Win Prob

31.42%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

32.37%

Win Prob

34.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

31.67%

Win Prob

43.85%

Chicago Bears 2.87% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.63%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

51.51%

Win Prob

47.30%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

57.74%

Win Prob

26.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.84%

Win Prob

39.53%

Green Bay Packers 2.10% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.37%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.41%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

43.70%

Win Prob

34.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

36.19%

Win Prob

45.24%

Pittsburgh Steelers 1.56% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.81%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.07%

Win Prob

31.41%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

37.63%

Win Prob

33.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

42.95%

Win Prob

37.22%

Los Angeles Chargers 1.43% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.87%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.89%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

31.47%

Win Prob

31.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

39.86%

Win Prob

31.49%

Carolina Panthers 0.15% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

17.55%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

34.79%

Win Prob

29.74%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

42.37%

Win Prob

10.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

53.33%

Win Prob

30.77%

Completed Games

Every regular-season game played so far this season from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2025-09-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-13	1491.52	1447.54	52.39%	47.13%	+23.41	1-0
2025-09-14	Carolina Panthers	W 27-22	1514.93	1385.56	70.66%	28.86%	+12.14	2-0
2025-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 15-16	1527.07	1512.32	48.19%	51.34%	-9.05	2-1
2025-09-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-23	1518.02	1566.36	46.51%	53.02%	-15.12	2-2
2025-10-05	Tennessee Titans	L 21-22	1502.90	1319.49	76.61%	22.91%	-14.37	2-3
2025-10-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-31	1488.53	1558.01	36.42%	63.11%	-13.69	2-4
2025-10-19	Green Bay Packers	L 23-27	1474.84	1606.19	35.03%	64.50%	-13.17	2-5
2025-11-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-17	1461.67	1474.74	44.21%	55.31%	+32.82	3-5
2025-11-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 22-44	1494.49	1643.93	26.55%	72.98%	-23.42	3-6
2025-11-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 22-41	1471.07	1490.95	50.60%	48.93%	-41.40	3-7
2025-11-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-27	1429.67	1516.38	41.08%	58.45%	-13.36	3-8
2025-11-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1416.31	1507.24	33.61%	65.92%	-10.94	3-9
2025-12-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-45	1405.37	1677.43	19.34%	80.18%	-19.27	3-10
2025-12-14	@ Houston Texans	L 20-40	1386.10	1643.76	16.24%	83.29%	-13.68	3-11
2025-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 19-26	1372.42	1391.41	50.73%	48.80%	-25.18	3-12
2025-12-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-37	1347.24	1436.92	33.77%	65.76%	-30.45	3-13
2026-01-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-37	1316.79	1679.58	9.57%	89.95%	-7.43	3-14
2025-09-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1461.13	1541.24	42.00%	57.52%	-13.66	0-1
2025-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 22-6	1447.47	1550.58	32.06%	67.46%	+50.61	1-1
2025-09-21	@ Carolina Panthers	L 0-30	1498.08	1373.42	63.61%	35.91%	-65.35	1-2
2025-09-28	Washington Commanders	W 34-27	1432.73	1569.94	34.27%	65.26%	+32.38	2-2
2025-10-13	Buffalo Bills	W 24-14	1465.11	1632.82	30.43%	69.10%	+40.98	3-2
2025-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-20	1506.09	1493.61	47.86%	51.66%	-28.41	3-3
2025-10-26	Miami Dolphins	L 10-34	1477.68	1351.39	70.30%	29.23%	-64.59	3-4
2025-11-02	@ New England Patriots	L 23-24	1413.09	1544.15	28.66%	70.86%	-5.39	3-5
2025-11-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 25-31	1407.70	1584.77	23.56%	75.96%	-10.86	3-6
2025-11-16	Carolina Panthers	L 27-30	1396.84	1394.43	53.80%	45.73%	-17.48	3-7
2025-11-23	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-10	1379.36	1363.02	48.42%	51.11%	+35.88	4-7
2025-11-30	@ New York Jets	L 24-27	1415.24	1344.42	56.22%	43.31%	-18.26	4-8
2025-12-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-37	1396.98	1679.08	18.46%	81.07%	-18.39	4-9
2025-12-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 29-28	1378.59	1488.75	31.18%	68.34%	+12.82	5-9
2025-12-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 26-19	1391.41	1372.42	48.80%	50.73%	+25.18	6-9
2025-12-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1416.59	1706.12	17.82%	81.70%	+26.55	7-9
2026-01-04	New Orleans Saints	W 19-17	1443.14	1420.74	56.63%	42.89%	+11.39	8-9
2025-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 40-41	1604.51	1601.48	46.51%	53.02%	-8.74	0-1
2025-09-14	Cleveland Browns	W 41-17	1595.77	1408.66	76.99%	22.54%	+20.78	1-1
2025-09-22	Detroit Lions	L 30-38	1616.55	1585.50	57.85%	41.67%	-30.69	1-2
2025-09-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-37	1585.86	1549.57	51.29%	48.24%	-39.69	1-3
2025-10-05	Houston Texans	L 10-44	1546.17	1493.35	60.86%	38.66%	-66.56	1-4
2025-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-17	1479.61	1553.93	42.82%	56.71%	-30.09	1-5
2025-10-26	Chicago Bears	W 30-16	1449.52	1492.02	47.35%	52.18%	+36.64	2-5
2025-10-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 28-6	1486.16	1415.98	56.13%	43.40%	+38.23	3-5
2025-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-19	1524.39	1507.79	48.45%	51.07%	+27.11	4-5
2025-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-16	1551.50	1358.73	72.06%	27.46%	+13.66	5-5
2025-11-23	New York Jets	W 23-10	1565.16	1358.42	78.90%	20.63%	+14.00	6-5
2025-11-27	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-32	1579.16	1360.23	80.02%	19.50%	-63.68	6-6
2025-12-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 22-27	1515.48	1478.04	58.74%	40.78%	-24.63	6-7
2025-12-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-0	1490.85	1415.22	56.89%	42.63%	+39.22	7-7
2025-12-21	New England Patriots	L 24-28	1530.07	1594.38	44.23%	55.30%	-16.61	7-8
2025-12-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 41-24	1513.46	1623.33	31.22%	68.31%	+52.82	8-8
2026-01-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-26	1566.28	1522.06	52.43%	47.10%	-13.92	8-9
2025-09-07	Baltimore Ravens	W 41-40	1601.48	1604.51	53.02%	46.51%	+8.73	1-0
2025-09-14	@ New York Jets	W 30-10	1610.21	1455.47	67.50%	32.03%	+26.93	2-0
2025-09-18	Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1637.14	1416.06	80.22%	19.31%	+11.49	3-0
2025-09-28	New Orleans Saints	W 31-19	1648.63	1375.79	84.44%	15.08%	+9.84	4-0
2025-10-05	New England Patriots	L 20-23	1658.47	1450.85	78.98%	20.55%	-25.65	4-1
2025-10-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-24	1632.82	1465.11	69.10%	30.43%	-40.98	4-2
2025-10-26	@ Carolina Panthers	W 40-9	1591.84	1443.03	66.75%	32.78%	+34.31	5-2
2025-11-02	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-21	1626.15	1656.48	49.10%	50.43%	+25.04	6-2
2025-11-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-30	1651.19	1377.75	80.30%	19.22%	-62.10	6-3
2025-11-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 44-32	1589.09	1561.16	57.41%	42.11%	+27.40	7-3
2025-11-20	@ Houston Texans	L 19-23	1616.49	1573.14	52.30%	47.22%	-19.63	7-4
2025-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-7	1596.86	1511.87	58.21%	41.32%	+33.83	8-4
2025-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 39-34	1630.69	1423.90	78.90%	20.62%	+8.68	9-4
2025-12-14	@ New England Patriots	W 35-31	1639.37	1613.03	49.86%	49.67%	+18.65	10-4
2025-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1658.02	1317.52	85.60%	13.92%	+4.54	11-4
2025-12-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 12-13	1662.56	1620.44	59.39%	40.14%	-11.14	11-5
2026-01-04	New York Jets	W 35-8	1651.42	1260.66	91.26%	8.27%	+8.09	12-5
2025-09-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-26	1417.65	1441.31	42.71%	56.81%	-32.09	0-1
2025-09-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 22-27	1385.56	1514.93	28.86%	70.66%	-12.14	0-2
2025-09-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-0	1373.42	1498.08	35.91%	63.61%	+65.35	1-2
2025-09-28	@ New England Patriots	L 13-42	1438.77	1398.44	51.87%	47.66%	-52.42	1-3
2025-10-05	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1386.35	1426.84	47.64%	51.89%	+16.87	2-3
2025-10-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-27	1403.22	1464.72	44.63%	54.90%	+17.84	3-3
2025-10-19	@ New York Jets	W 13-6	1421.06	1356.68	55.30%	44.22%	+21.97	4-3
2025-10-26	Buffalo Bills	L 9-40	1443.03	1591.84	32.78%	66.75%	-34.31	4-4
2025-11-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-13	1408.72	1642.97	18.16%	81.37%	+26.44	5-4
2025-11-09	New Orleans Saints	L 7-17	1435.16	1322.30	68.67%	30.85%	-40.73	5-5
2025-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-27	1394.43	1396.84	45.73%	53.80%	+17.48	6-5
2025-11-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 9-20	1411.91	1532.34	29.93%	69.60%	-18.67	6-6
2025-11-30	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-28	1393.24	1704.55	16.06%	83.46%	+27.12	7-6
2025-12-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1420.36	1345.60	56.77%	42.75%	-18.45	7-7
2025-12-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1401.91	1475.94	42.86%	56.67%	+18.42	8-7
2025-12-28	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-27	1420.33	1712.81	17.58%	81.95%	-13.65	8-8
2026-01-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-16	1406.68	1440.29	41.32%	58.21%	-10.97	8-9
2025-09-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1450.43	1537.22	41.07%	58.46%	-13.36	0-1
2025-09-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-52	1437.07	1553.68	30.39%	69.13%	-31.82	0-2
2025-09-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-14	1405.25	1470.05	44.16%	55.37%	+42.82	1-2
2025-09-28	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 25-24	1448.07	1408.83	51.71%	47.81%	+8.98	2-2
2025-10-13	@ Washington Commanders	W 25-24	1457.05	1581.36	29.46%	70.06%	+13.14	3-2
2025-10-19	New Orleans Saints	W 26-14	1470.19	1378.63	66.00%	33.53%	+21.83	4-2
2025-10-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 16-30	1492.02	1449.52	52.18%	47.35%	-36.63	4-3
2025-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 47-42	1455.39	1420.73	51.05%	48.47%	+20.34	5-3
2025-11-09	New York Giants	W 24-20	1475.73	1375.97	67.04%	32.48%	+12.22	6-3
2025-11-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 19-17	1487.95	1480.68	47.11%	52.41%	+13.90	7-3
2025-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-28	1501.85	1528.08	49.69%	49.84%	+16.21	8-3
2025-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-15	1518.06	1651.03	28.44%	71.09%	+39.99	9-3
2025-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-28	1558.05	1659.05	32.33%	67.20%	-16.08	9-4
2025-12-14	Cleveland Browns	W 31-3	1541.97	1338.36	78.60%	20.92%	+20.84	10-4
2025-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 22-16	1562.81	1650.23	40.98%	58.55%	+26.90	11-4
2025-12-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 38-42	1589.71	1621.22	41.61%	57.91%	-15.63	11-5
2026-01-04	Detroit Lions	L 16-19	1574.08	1547.49	57.23%	42.30%	-18.59	11-6
2025-09-07	@ Cleveland Browns	W 17-16	1529.28	1415.69	62.14%	37.39%	+7.03	1-0
2025-09-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-27	1536.31	1473.40	62.23%	37.30%	+14.01	2-0
2025-09-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-48	1550.32	1499.97	53.31%	46.22%	-61.65	2-1
2025-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-28	1488.67	1522.41	41.30%	58.23%	-38.79	2-2
2025-10-05	Detroit Lions	L 24-37	1449.88	1635.49	28.29%	71.23%	-19.19	2-3
2025-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 18-27	1430.69	1591.94	25.24%	74.28%	-14.24	2-4
2025-10-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-31	1416.45	1539.87	36.08%	63.45%	+16.83	3-4
2025-10-26	New York Jets	L 38-39	1433.28	1334.71	66.89%	32.63%	-12.55	3-5
2025-11-02	Chicago Bears	L 42-47	1420.73	1455.39	48.47%	51.05%	-20.35	3-6
2025-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-34	1400.38	1499.34	32.58%	66.94%	-28.73	3-7
2025-11-23	New England Patriots	L 20-26	1371.65	1588.46	24.79%	74.73%	-11.42	3-8
2025-11-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 32-14	1360.23	1579.16	19.50%	80.02%	+63.67	4-8
2025-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 34-39	1423.90	1630.69	20.62%	78.90%	-8.68	4-9
2025-12-14	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-24	1415.22	1490.85	42.63%	56.89%	-39.22	4-10
2025-12-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 45-21	1376.00	1469.96	33.22%	66.31%	+60.92	5-10
2025-12-28	Arizona Cardinals	W 37-14	1436.92	1347.24	65.76%	33.77%	+30.44	6-10
2026-01-04	Cleveland Browns	L 18-20	1467.36	1351.63	69.03%	30.50%	-18.31	6-11
2025-09-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-17	1415.69	1529.28	37.39%	62.14%	-7.03	0-1
2025-09-14	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-41	1408.66	1595.77	22.54%	76.99%	-20.78	0-2
2025-09-21	Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1387.88	1618.49	23.34%	76.18%	+24.75	1-2
2025-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-34	1412.63	1616.19	20.93%	78.60%	-19.30	1-3
2025-10-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-21	1393.33	1543.90	32.56%	66.97%	-12.24	1-4
2025-10-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-23	1381.09	1520.37	27.71%	71.82%	-19.50	1-5
2025-10-19	Miami Dolphins	W 31-6	1361.59	1399.77	47.97%	51.56%	+48.38	2-5
2025-10-26	@ New England Patriots	L 13-32	1409.97	1518.42	31.40%	68.13%	-25.73	2-6
2025-11-09	@ New York Jets	L 20-27	1384.24	1347.25	51.39%	48.14%	-25.51	2-7
2025-11-16	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-23	1358.73	1551.50	27.46%	72.06%	-13.67	2-8
2025-11-23	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 24-10	1345.06	1326.98	48.67%	50.86%	+35.71	3-8
2025-11-30	San Francisco 49ers	L 8-26	1380.77	1551.01	30.12%	69.41%	-24.03	3-9
2025-12-07	Tennessee Titans	L 29-31	1356.74	1238.64	69.31%	30.21%	-18.38	3-10
2025-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-31	1338.36	1541.97	20.92%	78.60%	-20.84	3-11
2025-12-21	Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1317.52	1658.02	13.92%	85.60%	-4.54	3-12
2025-12-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-6	1312.98	1560.71	21.62%	77.90%	+38.65	4-12
2026-01-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-18	1351.63	1467.36	30.50%	69.03%	+18.31	5-12
2025-09-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-24	1467.12	1629.65	25.11%	74.42%	-9.44	0-1
2025-09-14	New York Giants	W 40-37	1457.68	1400.12	61.51%	38.02%	+12.37	1-1
2025-09-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-31	1470.05	1405.25	55.37%	44.16%	-42.83	1-2
2025-09-28	Green Bay Packers	T 40-40	1427.22	1593.74	30.57%	68.95%	+1.80	1-2
2025-10-05	@ New York Jets	W 37-22	1429.02	1398.76	50.42%	49.11%	+35.70	2-2
2025-10-12	@ Carolina Panthers	L 27-30	1464.72	1403.22	54.90%	44.63%	-17.84	2-3
2025-10-19	Washington Commanders	W 44-22	1446.88	1568.22	36.35%	63.17%	+55.57	3-3
2025-10-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-44	1502.45	1598.45	32.96%	66.57%	-27.71	3-4
2025-11-03	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-27	1474.74	1461.67	55.31%	44.21%	-32.82	3-5
2025-11-17	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 33-16	1441.92	1359.23	57.89%	41.64%	+32.25	4-5
2025-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-21	1474.17	1674.73	26.58%	72.95%	+23.70	5-5
2025-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-28	1497.87	1631.10	34.78%	64.74%	+21.03	6-5
2025-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 30-44	1518.90	1607.43	33.92%	65.61%	-23.86	6-6
2025-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-34	1495.04	1472.08	56.71%	42.81%	-30.09	6-7
2025-12-21	Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-34	1464.95	1571.03	38.41%	61.12%	-29.75	6-8
2025-12-25	@ Washington Commanders	W 30-23	1435.20	1373.36	54.94%	44.58%	+22.15	7-8
2026-01-04	@ New York Giants	L 17-34	1457.35	1340.83	62.53%	37.00%	-48.36	7-9
2025-09-07	Tennessee Titans	W 20-12	1528.87	1417.74	68.46%	31.06%	+16.52	1-0
2025-09-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-29	1545.39	1509.95	51.17%	48.36%	-9.60	1-1
2025-09-21	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 20-23	1535.79	1570.88	41.11%	58.41%	-13.38	1-2
2025-09-29	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-3	1522.41	1488.67	58.23%	41.30%	+38.79	2-2
2025-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1561.20	1687.30	29.25%	70.28%	+26.36	3-2
2025-10-12	@ New York Jets	W 13-11	1587.56	1363.06	75.55%	23.98%	+6.38	4-2
2025-10-19	New York Giants	W 33-32	1593.94	1421.02	75.53%	24.00%	+4.51	5-2
2025-10-26	Dallas Cowboys	W 44-24	1598.45	1502.45	66.57%	32.96%	+27.71	6-2
2025-11-02	@ Houston Texans	W 18-15	1626.16	1564.91	54.86%	44.66%	+14.53	7-2
2025-11-06	Las Vegas Raiders	W 10-7	1640.69	1364.06	84.72%	14.81%	+4.83	8-2
2025-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-19	1645.52	1631.44	55.46%	44.07%	+14.33	9-2
2025-11-30	@ Washington Commanders	W 27-26	1659.85	1412.40	77.87%	21.65%	+4.08	10-2
2025-12-07	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 24-17	1663.93	1276.77	88.52%	11.00%	+5.48	11-2
2025-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 34-26	1669.41	1675.13	52.63%	46.89%	+24.90	12-2
2025-12-21	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-34	1694.31	1600.26	66.32%	33.21%	-46.53	12-3
2025-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-13	1647.78	1495.43	67.20%	32.33%	+16.08	13-3
2026-01-04	Los Angeles Chargers	W 19-3	1663.86	1583.88	64.50%	35.03%	+26.33	14-3
2025-09-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-27	1589.05	1559.10	50.38%	49.15%	-35.37	0-1
2025-09-14	Chicago Bears	W 52-21	1553.68	1437.07	69.13%	30.39%	+31.82	1-1
2025-09-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 38-30	1585.50	1616.55	41.67%	57.85%	+30.69	2-1
2025-09-28	Cleveland Browns	W 34-10	1616.19	1412.63	78.60%	20.93%	+19.30	3-1
2025-10-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-24	1635.49	1449.88	71.23%	28.29%	+19.18	4-1
2025-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-30	1654.67	1570.55	58.09%	41.44%	-39.28	4-2
2025-10-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-9	1615.39	1595.43	56.29%	43.24%	+31.44	5-2
2025-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1646.83	1483.59	74.50%	25.03%	-24.19	5-3
2025-11-09	@ Washington Commanders	W 44-22	1622.64	1453.46	69.28%	30.25%	+26.68	6-3
2025-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-16	1649.32	1652.03	45.69%	53.84%	-22.70	6-4
2025-11-23	New York Giants	W 34-27	1626.62	1352.43	84.54%	14.99%	+7.47	7-4
2025-11-27	Green Bay Packers	L 24-31	1634.09	1632.40	53.69%	45.83%	-26.66	7-5
2025-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 44-30	1607.43	1518.90	65.61%	33.92%	+23.86	8-5
2025-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 34-41	1631.29	1696.70	36.96%	62.57%	-18.38	8-6
2025-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-29	1612.91	1533.71	64.40%	35.13%	-27.01	8-7
2025-12-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1585.90	1510.99	56.80%	42.73%	-38.41	8-8
2026-01-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-16	1547.49	1574.08	42.30%	57.23%	+18.59	9-8
2025-09-07	Detroit Lions	W 27-13	1559.10	1589.05	49.15%	50.38%	+35.38	1-0
2025-09-11	Washington Commanders	W 27-18	1594.48	1570.08	56.92%	42.61%	+24.01	2-0
2025-09-21	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-13	1618.49	1387.88	76.18%	23.34%	-24.75	2-1
2025-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 40-40	1593.74	1427.22	68.95%	30.57%	-1.80	2-1
2025-10-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-18	1591.94	1430.69	74.28%	25.24%	+14.25	3-1
2025-10-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-23	1606.19	1474.84	64.50%	35.03%	+13.17	4-1
2025-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-25	1619.36	1523.04	59.78%	39.75%	+23.61	5-1
2025-11-02	Carolina Panthers	L 13-16	1642.97	1408.72	81.37%	18.16%	-26.43	5-2
2025-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1616.54	1635.54	50.72%	48.80%	-16.49	5-3
2025-11-16	@ New York Giants	W 27-20	1600.05	1363.76	76.76%	22.76%	+11.33	6-3
2025-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-6	1611.38	1466.78	72.43%	27.10%	+21.02	7-3
2025-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1632.40	1634.09	45.83%	53.69%	+26.65	8-3
2025-12-07	Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1659.05	1558.05	67.20%	32.33%	+16.08	9-3
2025-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 26-34	1675.13	1669.41	46.89%	52.63%	-24.90	9-4
2025-12-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-22	1650.23	1562.81	58.55%	40.98%	-26.90	9-5
2025-12-27	Baltimore Ravens	L 24-41	1623.33	1513.46	68.31%	31.22%	-52.82	9-6
2026-01-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-16	1570.51	1549.40	49.10%	50.42%	-11.08	9-7
2025-09-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-14	1516.22	1527.32	44.49%	55.04%	-18.68	0-1
2025-09-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-20	1497.54	1554.90	45.22%	54.31%	-8.49	0-2
2025-09-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-17	1489.05	1459.38	50.33%	49.19%	-25.00	0-3
2025-09-28	Tennessee Titans	W 26-0	1464.05	1348.79	68.97%	30.56%	+29.30	1-3
2025-10-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 44-10	1493.35	1546.17	38.66%	60.86%	+66.56	2-3
2025-10-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-27	1559.91	1588.49	42.02%	57.50%	-22.32	2-4
2025-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 26-15	1537.59	1522.02	55.67%	43.86%	+27.32	3-4
2025-11-02	Denver Broncos	L 15-18	1564.91	1626.16	44.66%	54.86%	-14.53	3-5
2025-11-09	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 36-29	1550.38	1468.17	64.79%	34.74%	+17.27	4-5
2025-11-16	@ Tennessee Titans	W 16-13	1567.65	1265.92	82.71%	16.82%	+5.49	5-5
2025-11-20	Buffalo Bills	W 23-19	1573.14	1616.49	47.22%	52.30%	+19.63	6-5
2025-11-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 20-16	1592.77	1581.64	47.67%	51.86%	+19.46	7-5
2025-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-10	1612.23	1610.07	46.38%	53.14%	+31.53	8-5
2025-12-14	Arizona Cardinals	W 40-20	1643.76	1386.10	83.29%	16.24%	+13.68	9-5
2025-12-21	Las Vegas Raiders	W 23-21	1657.44	1258.85	91.60%	7.93%	+2.11	10-5
2025-12-27	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-16	1659.55	1600.79	54.51%	45.02%	+16.91	11-5
2026-01-04	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-30	1676.46	1466.31	79.22%	20.31%	+10.81	12-5
2025-09-07	Miami Dolphins	W 33-8	1462.94	1490.92	49.43%	50.09%	+47.01	1-0
2025-09-14	Denver Broncos	W 29-28	1509.95	1545.39	48.36%	51.17%	+9.60	2-0
2025-09-21	@ Tennessee Titans	W 41-20	1519.55	1377.80	65.85%	33.68%	+29.01	3-0
2025-09-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-27	1548.56	1552.16	45.56%	53.97%	-22.63	3-1
2025-10-05	Las Vegas Raiders	W 40-6	1525.93	1399.85	70.27%	29.25%	+32.08	4-1
2025-10-12	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-27	1558.01	1488.53	63.11%	36.42%	+13.69	5-1
2025-10-19	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 38-24	1571.70	1526.29	52.60%	46.93%	+32.96	6-1
2025-10-26	Tennessee Titans	W 38-14	1604.66	1286.86	87.47%	12.06%	+11.13	7-1
2025-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-27	1615.79	1499.43	62.51%	37.02%	-31.02	7-2
2025-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-25	1584.77	1407.70	75.96%	23.56%	+10.86	8-2
2025-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1595.63	1617.11	43.02%	56.50%	-13.99	8-3
2025-11-30	Houston Texans	L 16-20	1581.64	1592.77	51.86%	47.67%	-19.46	8-4
2025-12-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 19-36	1562.18	1546.66	48.30%	51.23%	-37.39	8-5
2025-12-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-18	1524.79	1697.47	24.02%	75.50%	-6.39	8-6
2025-12-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-48	1518.40	1583.22	44.16%	55.37%	-38.00	8-7
2025-12-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-23	1480.40	1646.80	30.59%	68.94%	-14.09	8-8
2026-01-04	@ Houston Texans	L 30-38	1466.31	1676.46	20.31%	79.22%	-10.81	8-9
2025-09-07	Carolina Panthers	W 26-10	1441.31	1417.65	56.81%	42.71%	+32.09	1-0
2025-09-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-31	1473.40	1536.31	37.30%	62.23%	-14.02	1-1
2025-09-21	Houston Texans	W 17-10	1459.38	1489.05	49.19%	50.33%	+25.00	2-1
2025-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-21	1484.38	1521.36	40.85%	58.68%	+24.61	3-1
2025-10-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-28	1508.99	1589.25	41.98%	57.55%	+18.70	4-1
2025-10-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-20	1527.69	1562.79	48.41%	51.12%	-25.71	4-2
2025-10-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-35	1501.98	1584.01	41.73%	57.79%	-41.47	4-3
2025-11-02	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 30-29	1460.51	1371.72	58.74%	40.79%	+7.66	5-3
2025-11-09	@ Houston Texans	L 29-36	1468.17	1550.38	34.74%	64.79%	-17.28	5-4
2025-11-16	Los Angeles Chargers	W 35-6	1450.89	1584.89	34.68%	64.84%	+65.49	6-4
2025-11-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-24	1516.38	1429.67	58.45%	41.08%	+13.37	7-4
2025-11-30	@ Tennessee Titans	W 25-3	1529.75	1255.55	80.37%	19.15%	+16.91	8-4
2025-12-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 36-19	1546.66	1562.18	51.23%	48.30%	+37.38	9-4
2025-12-14	New York Jets	W 48-20	1584.04	1326.89	83.25%	16.28%	+16.22	10-4
2025-12-21	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-20	1600.26	1694.31	33.21%	66.32%	+46.54	11-4
2025-12-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-17	1646.80	1480.40	68.94%	30.59%	+14.08	12-4
2026-01-04	Tennessee Titans	W 41-7	1660.88	1291.46	90.28%	9.25%	+10.16	13-4
2025-09-05	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 21-27	1563.19	1521.38	52.08%	47.44%	-23.94	0-1
2025-09-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-20	1539.25	1639.10	39.26%	60.27%	-12.77	0-2
2025-09-21	@ New York Giants	W 22-9	1526.48	1387.75	65.46%	34.07%	+23.09	1-2
2025-09-28	Baltimore Ravens	W 37-20	1549.57	1585.86	48.24%	51.29%	+39.68	2-2
2025-10-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 28-31	1589.25	1508.99	57.55%	41.98%	-18.70	2-3
2025-10-12	Detroit Lions	W 30-17	1570.55	1654.67	41.44%	58.09%	+39.29	3-3
2025-10-19	Las Vegas Raiders	W 31-0	1609.84	1392.29	79.90%	19.63%	+20.57	4-3
2025-10-27	Washington Commanders	W 28-7	1630.41	1512.64	69.27%	30.25%	+26.07	5-3
2025-11-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-28	1656.48	1626.15	50.43%	49.10%	-25.04	5-4
2025-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-22	1631.44	1645.52	44.07%	55.46%	-14.33	5-5
2025-11-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1617.11	1595.63	56.50%	43.02%	+13.99	6-5
2025-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 28-31	1631.10	1497.87	64.74%	34.78%	-21.03	6-6
2025-12-07	Houston Texans	L 10-20	1610.07	1612.23	53.14%	46.38%	-31.53	6-7
2025-12-14	Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-16	1578.54	1552.46	57.15%	42.37%	-18.57	6-8
2025-12-21	@ Tennessee Titans	L 9-26	1559.97	1248.84	83.45%	16.08%	-64.54	6-9
2025-12-25	Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1495.43	1647.78	32.33%	67.20%	-16.08	6-10
2026-01-04	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 12-14	1479.35	1212.90	79.67%	19.85%	-21.14	6-11
2025-09-07	@ New England Patriots	W 20-13	1432.74	1418.41	48.13%	51.40%	+25.52	1-0
2025-09-15	Los Angeles Chargers	L 9-20	1458.26	1545.32	41.03%	58.50%	-25.56	1-1
2025-09-21	@ Washington Commanders	L 24-41	1432.70	1546.07	30.79%	68.74%	-23.87	1-2
2025-09-28	Chicago Bears	L 24-25	1408.83	1448.07	47.81%	51.71%	-8.98	1-3
2025-10-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-40	1399.85	1525.93	29.25%	70.27%	-32.07	1-4
2025-10-12	Tennessee Titans	W 20-10	1367.78	1333.86	58.25%	41.27%	+24.51	2-4
2025-10-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-31	1392.29	1609.84	19.63%	79.90%	-20.57	2-5
2025-11-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 29-30	1371.72	1460.51	40.79%	58.74%	-7.66	2-6
2025-11-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-10	1364.06	1640.69	14.81%	84.72%	-4.83	2-7
2025-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-33	1359.23	1441.92	41.64%	57.89%	-32.25	2-8
2025-11-23	Cleveland Browns	L 10-24	1326.98	1345.06	50.86%	48.67%	-35.71	2-9
2025-11-30	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 14-31	1291.27	1519.40	18.68%	80.84%	-14.50	2-10
2025-12-07	Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1276.77	1663.93	11.00%	88.52%	-5.49	2-11
2025-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-31	1271.28	1592.48	11.85%	87.67%	-12.43	2-12
2025-12-21	@ Houston Texans	L 21-23	1258.85	1657.44	7.93%	91.60%	-2.11	2-13
2025-12-28	New York Giants	L 10-34	1256.74	1297.00	47.67%	51.86%	-43.84	2-14
2026-01-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-12	1212.90	1479.35	19.85%	79.67%	+21.13	3-14
2025-09-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-21	1521.38	1563.19	47.44%	52.08%	+23.94	1-0
2025-09-15	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 20-9	1545.32	1458.26	58.50%	41.03%	+25.56	2-0
2025-09-21	Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1570.88	1535.79	58.41%	41.11%	+13.37	3-0
2025-09-28	@ New York Giants	L 18-21	1584.25	1364.66	75.03%	24.50%	-24.37	3-1
2025-10-05	Washington Commanders	L 10-27	1559.88	1537.56	56.62%	42.90%	-43.80	3-2
2025-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 29-27	1516.08	1409.97	61.12%	38.40%	+10.21	4-2
2025-10-19	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-38	1526.29	1571.70	46.93%	52.60%	-32.97	4-3
2025-10-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 37-10	1493.32	1534.25	47.57%	51.95%	+50.66	5-3
2025-11-02	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-20	1543.98	1275.73	79.84%	19.69%	+9.81	6-3
2025-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 25-10	1553.79	1530.45	56.77%	42.76%	+31.10	7-3
2025-11-16	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-35	1584.89	1450.89	64.84%	34.68%	-65.49	7-4
2025-11-30	Las Vegas Raiders	W 31-14	1519.40	1291.27	80.84%	18.68%	+14.50	8-4
2025-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-19	1533.90	1611.04	42.42%	57.11%	+18.56	9-4
2025-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1552.46	1578.54	42.37%	57.15%	+18.57	10-4
2025-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-17	1571.03	1464.95	61.12%	38.41%	+29.76	11-4
2025-12-27	Houston Texans	L 16-20	1600.79	1659.55	45.02%	54.51%	-16.91	11-5
2026-01-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-19	1583.88	1663.86	35.03%	64.50%	-26.34	11-6
2025-09-07	Houston Texans	W 14-9	1527.32	1516.22	55.04%	44.49%	+18.69	1-0
2025-09-14	@ Tennessee Titans	W 33-19	1546.01	1401.22	66.24%	33.29%	+23.41	2-0
2025-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 26-33	1569.42	1651.88	34.71%	64.82%	-17.26	2-1
2025-09-28	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-20	1552.16	1548.56	53.97%	45.56%	+22.64	3-1
2025-10-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-26	1574.80	1496.75	64.24%	35.28%	-20.87	3-2
2025-10-12	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-3	1553.93	1479.61	56.71%	42.82%	+30.08	4-2
2025-10-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-7	1584.01	1501.98	57.79%	41.73%	+41.48	5-2
2025-11-02	New Orleans Saints	W 34-10	1625.49	1335.06	85.69%	13.83%	+12.77	6-2
2025-11-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-26	1638.26	1518.43	62.97%	36.55%	+27.47	7-2
2025-11-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-19	1665.73	1667.36	53.22%	46.31%	+12.30	8-2
2025-11-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-7	1678.03	1533.76	72.39%	27.13%	+26.52	9-2
2025-11-30	@ Carolina Panthers	L 28-31	1704.55	1393.24	83.46%	16.06%	-27.12	9-3
2025-12-07	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 45-17	1677.43	1405.37	80.18%	19.34%	+19.27	10-3
2025-12-14	Detroit Lions	W 41-34	1696.70	1631.29	62.57%	36.96%	+18.38	11-3
2025-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 37-38	1715.08	1703.86	47.68%	51.84%	-8.96	11-4
2025-12-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-27	1706.12	1416.59	81.70%	17.82%	-26.54	11-5
2026-01-04	Arizona Cardinals	W 37-20	1679.58	1316.79	89.95%	9.57%	+7.44	12-5
2025-09-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 8-33	1490.92	1462.94	50.09%	49.43%	-47.01	0-1
2025-09-14	New England Patriots	L 27-33	1443.91	1392.90	60.61%	38.91%	-27.85	0-2
2025-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-31	1416.06	1637.14	19.31%	80.22%	-11.49	0-3
2025-09-29	New York Jets	W 27-21	1404.57	1421.03	51.09%	48.44%	+22.27	1-3
2025-10-05	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-27	1426.84	1386.35	51.89%	47.64%	-16.87	1-4
2025-10-12	Los Angeles Chargers	L 27-29	1409.97	1516.08	38.40%	61.12%	-10.20	1-5
2025-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-31	1399.77	1361.59	51.56%	47.97%	-48.38	1-6
2025-10-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-10	1351.39	1477.68	29.23%	70.30%	+64.59	2-6
2025-10-30	Baltimore Ravens	L 6-28	1415.98	1486.16	43.40%	56.13%	-38.23	2-7
2025-11-09	Buffalo Bills	W 30-13	1377.75	1651.19	19.22%	80.30%	+62.10	3-7
2025-11-16	Washington Commanders	W 16-13	1439.85	1426.78	55.31%	44.21%	+14.38	4-7
2025-11-30	New Orleans Saints	W 21-17	1454.23	1327.13	70.39%	29.13%	+10.96	5-7
2025-12-07	@ New York Jets	W 34-10	1465.19	1362.69	60.63%	38.90%	+35.80	6-7
2025-12-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-28	1500.99	1502.68	45.83%	53.69%	-31.03	6-8
2025-12-21	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-45	1469.96	1376.00	66.31%	33.22%	-60.92	6-9
2025-12-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1409.04	1457.52	46.49%	53.04%	+17.24	7-9
2026-01-04	@ New England Patriots	L 10-38	1426.28	1626.23	21.28%	78.25%	-21.19	7-10
2025-09-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-24	1537.22	1450.43	58.46%	41.07%	+13.36	1-0
2025-09-14	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-22	1550.58	1447.47	67.46%	32.06%	-50.61	1-1
2025-09-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 48-10	1499.97	1550.32	46.22%	53.31%	+61.66	2-1
2025-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-24	1561.63	1502.65	54.54%	44.99%	-17.73	2-2
2025-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-17	1543.90	1393.33	66.97%	32.56%	+12.24	3-2
2025-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-28	1556.14	1596.84	47.61%	51.92%	-21.89	3-3
2025-10-23	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-37	1534.25	1493.32	51.95%	47.57%	-50.66	3-4
2025-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1483.59	1646.83	25.03%	74.50%	+24.20	4-4
2025-11-09	Baltimore Ravens	L 19-27	1507.79	1524.39	51.07%	48.45%	-27.11	4-5
2025-11-16	Chicago Bears	L 17-19	1480.68	1487.95	52.41%	47.11%	-13.90	4-6
2025-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-23	1466.78	1611.38	27.10%	72.43%	-21.02	4-7
2025-11-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-26	1445.76	1659.95	19.94%	79.59%	-19.13	4-8
2025-12-07	Washington Commanders	W 31-0	1426.63	1408.33	56.06%	43.47%	+45.45	5-8
2025-12-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-26	1472.08	1495.04	42.81%	56.71%	+30.09	6-8
2025-12-21	@ New York Giants	W 16-13	1502.17	1305.81	72.47%	27.05%	+8.82	7-8
2025-12-25	Detroit Lions	W 23-10	1510.99	1585.90	42.73%	56.80%	+38.41	8-8
2026-01-04	Green Bay Packers	W 16-3	1549.40	1570.51	50.42%	49.10%	+11.08	9-8
2025-09-07	Las Vegas Raiders	L 13-20	1418.41	1432.74	51.40%	48.13%	-25.51	0-1
2025-09-14	@ Miami Dolphins	W 33-27	1392.90	1443.91	38.91%	60.61%	+27.84	1-1
2025-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-21	1420.74	1480.34	44.90%	54.63%	-22.30	1-2
2025-09-28	Carolina Panthers	W 42-13	1398.44	1438.77	47.66%	51.87%	+52.41	2-2
2025-10-05	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-20	1450.85	1658.47	20.55%	78.98%	+25.66	3-2
2025-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 25-19	1476.51	1398.06	57.29%	42.23%	+19.43	4-2
2025-10-19	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-13	1495.94	1309.34	71.35%	28.18%	+22.48	5-2
2025-10-26	Cleveland Browns	W 32-13	1518.42	1409.97	68.13%	31.40%	+25.73	6-2
2025-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1544.15	1413.09	70.86%	28.66%	+5.39	7-2
2025-11-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-23	1549.54	1585.72	40.96%	58.57%	+24.57	8-2
2025-11-13	New York Jets	W 27-14	1574.11	1372.77	78.38%	21.14%	+14.35	9-2
2025-11-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-20	1588.46	1371.65	74.73%	24.79%	+11.42	10-2
2025-12-01	New York Giants	W 33-15	1599.88	1344.96	83.07%	16.45%	+13.15	11-2
2025-12-14	Buffalo Bills	L 31-35	1613.03	1639.37	49.67%	49.86%	-18.65	11-3
2025-12-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 28-24	1594.38	1530.07	55.30%	44.23%	+16.61	12-3
2025-12-28	@ New York Jets	W 42-10	1610.99	1275.90	85.23%	14.30%	+15.24	13-3
2026-01-04	Miami Dolphins	W 38-10	1626.23	1426.28	78.25%	21.28%	+21.19	14-3
2025-09-07	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-20	1447.54	1491.52	47.13%	52.39%	-23.41	0-1
2025-09-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-26	1424.13	1494.08	43.43%	56.09%	-18.24	0-2
2025-09-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-44	1405.89	1536.26	28.74%	70.78%	-30.10	0-3
2025-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 19-31	1375.79	1648.63	15.08%	84.44%	-9.84	0-4
2025-10-05	New York Giants	W 26-14	1365.95	1389.03	50.14%	49.39%	+32.11	1-4
2025-10-12	New England Patriots	L 19-25	1398.06	1476.51	42.23%	57.29%	-19.43	1-5
2025-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-26	1378.63	1470.19	33.53%	66.00%	-21.83	1-6
2025-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-23	1356.80	1563.98	25.84%	73.69%	-21.74	1-7
2025-11-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-34	1335.06	1625.49	13.83%	85.69%	-12.76	1-8
2025-11-09	@ Carolina Panthers	W 17-7	1322.30	1435.16	30.85%	68.67%	+40.72	2-8
2025-11-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-24	1363.02	1379.36	51.11%	48.42%	-35.89	2-9
2025-11-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1327.13	1454.23	29.13%	70.39%	-10.95	2-10
2025-12-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-20	1316.18	1518.18	21.08%	78.45%	+29.42	3-10
2025-12-14	Carolina Panthers	W 20-17	1345.60	1420.36	42.75%	56.77%	+18.45	4-10
2025-12-21	New York Jets	W 29-6	1364.05	1310.67	60.94%	38.59%	+34.77	5-10
2025-12-28	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-26	1398.82	1313.38	58.27%	41.25%	+21.92	6-10
2026-01-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-19	1420.74	1443.14	42.89%	56.63%	-11.39	6-11
2025-09-07	@ Washington Commanders	L 6-21	1421.29	1548.90	29.07%	70.46%	-21.17	0-1
2025-09-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 37-40	1400.12	1457.68	38.02%	61.51%	-12.37	0-2
2025-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-22	1387.75	1526.48	34.07%	65.46%	-23.09	0-3
2025-09-28	Los Angeles Chargers	W 21-18	1364.66	1584.25	24.50%	75.03%	+24.37	1-3
2025-10-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-26	1389.03	1365.95	49.39%	50.14%	-32.11	1-4
2025-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-17	1356.92	1660.95	16.63%	82.89%	+64.10	2-4
2025-10-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 32-33	1421.02	1593.94	24.00%	75.53%	-4.51	2-5
2025-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-38	1416.51	1618.73	21.06%	78.47%	-16.82	2-6
2025-11-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-34	1399.69	1494.71	39.93%	59.60%	-23.72	2-7
2025-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-24	1375.97	1475.73	32.48%	67.04%	-12.21	2-8
2025-11-16	Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1363.76	1600.05	22.76%	76.76%	-11.33	2-9
2025-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-34	1352.43	1626.62	14.99%	84.54%	-7.47	2-10
2025-12-01	@ New England Patriots	L 15-33	1344.96	1599.88	16.45%	83.07%	-13.14	2-11
2025-12-14	Washington Commanders	L 21-29	1331.82	1362.87	48.99%	50.53%	-26.01	2-12
2025-12-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-16	1305.81	1502.17	27.05%	72.47%	-8.81	2-13
2025-12-28	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 34-10	1297.00	1256.74	51.86%	47.67%	+43.83	3-13
2026-01-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-17	1340.83	1457.35	37.00%	62.53%	+48.36	4-13
2025-09-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 32-34	1468.15	1507.55	47.79%	51.73%	-12.68	0-1
2025-09-14	Buffalo Bills	L 10-30	1455.47	1610.21	32.03%	67.50%	-26.94	0-2
2025-09-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-29	1428.53	1563.39	28.22%	71.31%	-7.50	0-3
2025-09-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-27	1421.03	1404.57	48.44%	51.09%	-22.27	0-4
2025-10-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 22-37	1398.76	1429.02	49.11%	50.42%	-35.70	0-5
2025-10-12	Denver Broncos	L 11-13	1363.06	1587.56	23.98%	75.55%	-6.38	0-6
2025-10-19	Carolina Panthers	L 6-13	1356.68	1421.06	44.22%	55.30%	-21.97	0-7
2025-10-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 39-38	1334.71	1433.28	32.63%	66.89%	+12.54	1-7
2025-11-09	Cleveland Browns	W 27-20	1347.25	1384.24	48.14%	51.39%	+25.52	2-7
2025-11-13	@ New England Patriots	L 14-27	1372.77	1574.11	21.14%	78.38%	-14.35	2-8
2025-11-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-23	1358.42	1565.16	20.63%	78.90%	-14.00	2-9
2025-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1344.42	1415.24	43.31%	56.22%	+18.27	3-9
2025-12-07	Miami Dolphins	L 10-34	1362.69	1465.19	38.90%	60.63%	-35.80	3-10
2025-12-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-48	1326.89	1584.04	16.28%	83.25%	-16.22	3-11
2025-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-29	1310.67	1364.05	38.59%	60.94%	-34.77	3-12
2025-12-28	New England Patriots	L 10-42	1275.90	1610.99	14.30%	85.23%	-15.24	3-13
2026-01-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 8-35	1260.66	1651.42	8.27%	91.26%	-8.09	3-14
2025-09-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1629.65	1467.12	74.42%	25.11%	+9.45	1-0
2025-09-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1639.10	1539.25	60.27%	39.26%	+12.78	2-0
2025-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 33-26	1651.88	1569.42	64.82%	34.71%	+17.25	3-0
2025-09-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-25	1669.13	1570.90	60.04%	39.48%	+18.17	4-0
2025-10-05	Denver Broncos	L 17-21	1687.30	1561.20	70.28%	29.25%	-26.35	4-1
2025-10-09	@ New York Giants	L 17-34	1660.95	1356.92	82.89%	16.63%	-64.11	4-2
2025-10-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-22	1596.84	1556.14	51.92%	47.61%	+21.89	5-2
2025-10-26	New York Giants	W 38-20	1618.73	1416.51	78.47%	21.06%	+16.81	6-2
2025-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 10-7	1635.54	1616.54	48.80%	50.72%	+16.49	7-2
2025-11-16	Detroit Lions	W 16-9	1652.03	1649.32	53.84%	45.69%	+22.70	8-2
2025-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1674.73	1474.17	72.95%	26.58%	-23.70	8-3
2025-11-28	Chicago Bears	L 15-24	1651.03	1518.06	71.09%	28.44%	-39.99	8-4
2025-12-08	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 19-22	1611.04	1533.90	57.11%	42.42%	-18.56	8-5
2025-12-14	Las Vegas Raiders	W 31-0	1592.48	1271.28	87.67%	11.85%	+12.43	9-5
2025-12-20	@ Washington Commanders	W 29-18	1604.91	1388.88	74.65%	24.88%	+15.53	10-5
2025-12-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-12	1620.44	1662.56	40.14%	59.39%	+11.14	11-5
2026-01-04	Washington Commanders	L 17-24	1631.58	1351.21	84.99%	14.54%	-42.18	11-6
2025-09-07	@ New York Jets	W 34-32	1507.55	1468.15	51.73%	47.79%	+12.69	1-0
2025-09-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-31	1520.24	1496.36	56.84%	42.68%	-39.90	1-1
2025-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 21-14	1480.34	1420.74	54.63%	44.90%	+22.31	2-1
2025-09-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-21	1502.65	1561.63	44.99%	54.54%	+17.72	3-1
2025-10-12	Cleveland Browns	W 23-9	1520.37	1381.09	71.82%	27.71%	+19.50	4-1
2025-10-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-33	1539.87	1416.45	63.45%	36.08%	-16.83	4-2
2025-10-26	Green Bay Packers	L 25-35	1523.04	1619.36	39.75%	59.78%	-23.61	4-3
2025-11-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-20	1499.43	1615.79	37.02%	62.51%	+31.02	5-3
2025-11-09	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-25	1530.45	1553.79	42.76%	56.77%	-31.11	5-4
2025-11-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-12	1499.34	1400.38	66.94%	32.58%	+28.74	6-4
2025-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 28-31	1528.08	1501.85	49.84%	49.69%	-16.21	6-5
2025-11-30	Buffalo Bills	L 7-26	1511.87	1596.86	41.32%	58.21%	-33.83	6-6
2025-12-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 27-22	1478.04	1515.48	40.78%	58.74%	+24.64	7-6
2025-12-15	Miami Dolphins	W 28-15	1502.68	1500.99	53.69%	45.83%	+31.03	8-6
2025-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-24	1533.71	1612.91	35.13%	64.40%	+27.00	9-6
2025-12-28	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-13	1560.71	1312.98	77.90%	21.62%	-38.65	9-7
2026-01-04	Baltimore Ravens	W 26-24	1522.06	1566.28	47.10%	52.43%	+13.91	10-7
2025-09-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1471.53	1518.91	39.41%	60.12%	+22.55	1-0
2025-09-14	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-21	1494.08	1424.13	56.09%	43.43%	+18.24	2-0
2025-09-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 16-15	1512.32	1527.07	51.34%	48.19%	+9.04	3-0
2025-09-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-26	1521.36	1484.38	58.68%	40.85%	-24.61	3-1
2025-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 26-23	1496.75	1574.80	35.28%	64.24%	+20.87	4-1
2025-10-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-30	1517.62	1571.42	38.53%	61.00%	-24.01	4-2
2025-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-10	1493.61	1506.09	51.66%	47.86%	+28.41	5-2
2025-10-26	@ Houston Texans	L 15-26	1522.02	1537.59	43.86%	55.67%	-27.31	5-3
2025-11-02	@ New York Giants	W 34-24	1494.71	1399.69	59.60%	39.93%	+23.72	6-3
2025-11-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 26-42	1518.43	1638.26	36.55%	62.97%	-27.48	6-4
2025-11-16	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 41-22	1490.95	1471.07	48.93%	50.60%	+41.39	7-4
2025-11-24	Carolina Panthers	W 20-9	1532.34	1411.91	69.60%	29.93%	+18.67	8-4
2025-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-8	1551.01	1380.77	69.41%	30.12%	+24.03	9-4
2025-12-14	Tennessee Titans	W 37-24	1575.04	1257.02	87.48%	12.05%	+8.18	10-4
2025-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 48-27	1583.22	1518.40	55.37%	44.16%	+38.00	11-4
2025-12-28	Chicago Bears	W 42-38	1621.22	1589.71	57.91%	41.61%	+15.63	12-4
2026-01-03	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-13	1636.85	1726.46	40.68%	58.85%	-24.16	12-5
2025-09-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-17	1518.91	1471.53	60.12%	39.41%	-22.55	0-1
2025-09-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-17	1496.36	1520.24	42.68%	56.84%	+39.90	1-1
2025-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 44-13	1536.26	1405.89	70.78%	28.74%	+30.10	2-1
2025-09-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-20	1566.36	1518.02	53.02%	46.51%	+15.12	3-1
2025-10-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 35-38	1581.48	1552.73	57.53%	42.00%	-18.69	3-2
2025-10-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-12	1562.79	1527.69	51.12%	48.41%	+25.70	4-2
2025-10-20	Houston Texans	W 27-19	1588.49	1559.91	57.50%	42.02%	+22.33	5-2
2025-11-02	@ Washington Commanders	W 38-14	1610.82	1486.58	63.56%	35.97%	+33.11	6-2
2025-11-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 44-22	1643.93	1494.49	72.98%	26.55%	+23.43	7-2
2025-11-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 19-21	1667.36	1665.73	46.31%	53.22%	-12.30	7-3
2025-11-23	@ Tennessee Titans	W 30-24	1655.06	1260.44	88.94%	10.59%	+4.89	8-3
2025-11-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-0	1659.95	1445.76	79.59%	19.94%	+19.13	9-3
2025-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 37-9	1679.08	1396.98	81.07%	18.46%	+18.39	10-3
2025-12-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 18-16	1697.47	1524.79	75.50%	24.02%	+6.39	11-3
2025-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-37	1703.86	1715.08	51.84%	47.68%	+8.95	12-3
2025-12-28	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-10	1712.81	1420.33	81.95%	17.58%	+13.65	13-3
2026-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-3	1726.46	1636.85	58.85%	40.68%	+24.16	14-3
2025-09-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1541.24	1461.13	57.52%	42.00%	+13.66	1-0
2025-09-15	@ Houston Texans	W 20-19	1554.90	1497.54	54.31%	45.22%	+8.49	2-0
2025-09-21	New York Jets	W 29-27	1563.39	1428.53	71.31%	28.22%	+7.51	3-0
2025-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-31	1570.90	1669.13	39.48%	60.04%	-18.17	3-1
2025-10-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 38-35	1552.73	1581.48	42.00%	57.53%	+18.69	4-1
2025-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-19	1571.42	1517.62	61.00%	38.53%	+24.01	5-1
2025-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-24	1595.43	1615.39	43.24%	56.29%	-31.45	5-2
2025-10-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-3	1563.98	1356.80	73.69%	25.84%	+21.74	6-2
2025-11-09	New England Patriots	L 23-28	1585.72	1549.54	58.57%	40.96%	-24.56	6-3
2025-11-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 32-44	1561.16	1589.09	42.11%	57.41%	-27.40	6-4
2025-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-34	1533.76	1678.03	27.13%	72.39%	-26.52	6-5
2025-11-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1507.24	1416.31	65.92%	33.61%	+10.94	7-5
2025-12-07	New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1518.18	1316.18	78.45%	21.08%	-29.43	7-6
2025-12-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-29	1488.75	1378.59	68.34%	31.18%	-12.81	7-7
2025-12-21	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-23	1475.94	1401.91	56.67%	42.86%	-18.42	7-8
2025-12-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1457.52	1409.04	53.04%	46.49%	-17.23	7-9
2026-01-03	Carolina Panthers	W 16-14	1440.29	1406.68	58.21%	41.32%	+10.97	8-9
2025-09-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 12-20	1417.74	1528.87	31.06%	68.46%	-16.52	0-1
2025-09-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 19-33	1401.22	1546.01	33.29%	66.24%	-23.42	0-2
2025-09-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-41	1377.80	1519.55	33.68%	65.85%	-29.01	0-3
2025-09-28	@ Houston Texans	L 0-26	1348.79	1464.05	30.56%	68.97%	-29.30	0-4
2025-10-05	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 22-21	1319.49	1502.90	22.91%	76.61%	+14.37	1-4
2025-10-12	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 10-20	1333.86	1367.78	41.27%	58.25%	-24.52	1-5
2025-10-19	New England Patriots	L 13-31	1309.34	1495.94	28.18%	71.35%	-22.48	1-6
2025-10-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-38	1286.86	1604.66	12.06%	87.47%	-11.13	1-7
2025-11-02	Los Angeles Chargers	L 20-27	1275.73	1543.98	19.69%	79.84%	-9.81	1-8
2025-11-16	Houston Texans	L 13-16	1265.92	1567.65	16.82%	82.71%	-5.48	1-9
2025-11-23	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-30	1260.44	1655.06	10.59%	88.94%	-4.89	1-10
2025-11-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-25	1255.55	1529.75	19.15%	80.37%	-16.91	1-11
2025-12-07	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-29	1238.64	1356.74	30.21%	69.31%	+18.38	2-11
2025-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-37	1257.02	1575.04	12.05%	87.48%	-8.18	2-12
2025-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-9	1248.84	1559.97	16.08%	83.45%	+64.54	3-12
2025-12-28	New Orleans Saints	L 26-34	1313.38	1398.82	41.25%	58.27%	-21.92	3-13
2026-01-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-41	1291.46	1660.88	9.25%	90.28%	-10.16	3-14
2025-09-07	New York Giants	W 21-6	1548.90	1421.29	70.46%	29.07%	+21.18	1-0
2025-09-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 18-27	1570.08	1594.48	42.61%	56.92%	-24.01	1-1
2025-09-21	Las Vegas Raiders	W 41-24	1546.07	1432.70	68.74%	30.79%	+23.87	2-1
2025-09-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 27-34	1569.94	1432.73	65.26%	34.27%	-32.38	2-2
2025-10-05	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-10	1537.56	1559.88	42.90%	56.62%	+43.80	3-2
2025-10-13	Chicago Bears	L 24-25	1581.36	1457.05	70.06%	29.46%	-13.14	3-3
2025-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 22-44	1568.22	1446.88	63.17%	36.35%	-55.58	3-4
2025-10-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-28	1512.64	1630.41	30.25%	69.27%	-26.06	3-5
2025-11-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-38	1486.58	1610.82	35.97%	63.56%	-33.12	3-6
2025-11-09	Detroit Lions	L 22-44	1453.46	1622.64	30.25%	69.28%	-26.68	3-7
2025-11-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1426.78	1439.85	44.21%	55.31%	-14.38	3-8
2025-11-30	Denver Broncos	L 26-27	1412.40	1659.85	21.65%	77.87%	-4.07	3-9
2025-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-31	1408.33	1426.63	43.47%	56.06%	-45.46	3-10
2025-12-14	@ New York Giants	W 29-21	1362.87	1331.82	50.53%	48.99%	+26.01	4-10
2025-12-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 18-29	1388.88	1604.91	24.88%	74.65%	-15.52	4-11
2025-12-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 23-30	1373.36	1435.20	44.58%	54.94%	-22.15	4-12
2026-01-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-17	1351.21	1631.58	14.54%	84.99%	+42.18	5-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2026-01-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-24	1659.51	1671.04	44.66%	55.34%	+17.90	1-0
2026-01-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 30-33	1677.41	1690.19	44.49%	55.51%	-14.39	1-1
2026-01-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 31-34	1395.71	1687.02	17.81%	82.19%	-5.77	0-1
2026-01-10	Green Bay Packers	W 31-27	1555.49	1559.43	53.12%	46.88%	+17.51	1-0
2026-01-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1573.00	1692.78	36.78%	63.22%	-11.90	1-1
2026-01-17	Buffalo Bills	W 33-30	1690.19	1677.41	55.51%	44.49%	+14.40	1-0
2026-01-25	New England Patriots	L 7-10	1704.59	1704.61	53.69%	46.31%	-17.37	1-1
2026-01-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 27-31	1559.43	1555.49	46.88%	53.12%	-17.51	0-1
2026-01-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-6	1687.27	1535.97	67.33%	32.67%	+29.90	1-0
2026-01-18	@ New England Patriots	L 16-28	1717.17	1670.29	53.05%	46.95%	-34.33	1-1
2026-01-11	Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1671.04	1659.51	55.34%	44.66%	-17.90	0-1
2026-01-11	@ New England Patriots	L 3-16	1557.54	1647.42	33.96%	66.04%	-22.87	0-1
2026-01-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-31	1687.02	1395.71	82.19%	17.81%	+5.76	1-0
2026-01-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1692.78	1573.00	63.22%	36.78%	+11.90	2-0
2026-01-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 27-31	1704.68	1784.09	35.32%	64.68%	-13.19	2-1
2026-01-11	Los Angeles Chargers	W 16-3	1647.42	1557.54	66.04%	33.96%	+22.87	1-0
2026-01-18	Houston Texans	W 28-16	1670.29	1717.17	46.95%	53.05%	+34.32	2-0
2026-01-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 10-7	1704.61	1704.59	46.31%	53.69%	+17.37	3-0
2026-02-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-29	1721.98	1797.29	39.33%	60.67%	-29.38	3-1
2026-01-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-23	1589.40	1612.69	50.35%	49.65%	-18.81	0-1
2026-01-12	Houston Texans	L 6-30	1535.97	1687.27	32.67%	67.33%	-29.90	0-1
2026-01-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-19	1612.69	1589.40	49.65%	50.35%	+18.81	1-0
2026-01-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-41	1631.50	1750.62	30.29%	69.71%	-33.47	1-1
2026-01-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-6	1750.62	1631.50	69.71%	30.29%	+33.47	1-0
2026-01-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1784.09	1704.68	64.68%	35.32%	+13.20	2-0
2026-02-08	New England Patriots	W 29-13	1797.29	1721.98	60.67%	39.33%	+29.38	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2026-01-04	14.54%	Washington Commanders	1351.21	24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1631.58	17
2	2025-11-30	16.06%	@ Carolina Panthers	1393.24	31	Los Angeles Rams	1704.55	28
3	2025-12-21	16.08%	@ Tennessee Titans	1248.84	26	Kansas City Chiefs	1559.97	9
4	2025-10-09	16.63%	@ New York Giants	1356.92	34	Philadelphia Eagles	1660.95	17
5	2025-12-29	17.82%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1416.59	27	Los Angeles Rams	1706.12	24
6	2025-11-02	18.16%	Carolina Panthers	1408.72	16	@ Green Bay Packers	1642.97	13
7	2025-11-09	19.22%	@ Miami Dolphins	1377.75	30	Buffalo Bills	1651.19	13
8	2025-11-27	19.50%	Cincinnati Bengals	1360.23	32	@ Baltimore Ravens	1579.16	14
9	2026-01-04	19.85%	@ Las Vegas Raiders	1212.90	14	Kansas City Chiefs	1479.35	12
10	2025-10-05	20.55%	New England Patriots	1450.85	23	@ Buffalo Bills	1658.47	20
11	2025-12-07	21.08%	New Orleans Saints	1316.18	24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1518.18	20
12	2025-12-28	21.62%	@ Cleveland Browns	1312.98	13	Pittsburgh Steelers	1560.71	6
13	2025-10-05	22.91%	Tennessee Titans	1319.49	22	@ Arizona Cardinals	1502.90	21
14	2025-09-21	23.34%	@ Cleveland Browns	1387.88	13	Green Bay Packers	1618.49	10
15	2025-09-28	24.50%	@ New York Giants	1364.66	21	Los Angeles Chargers	1584.25	18
16	2025-11-02	25.03%	Minnesota Vikings	1483.59	27	@ Detroit Lions	1646.83	24
17	2025-11-23	26.58%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1474.17	24	Philadelphia Eagles	1674.73	21
18	2025-11-28	28.44%	Chicago Bears	1518.06	24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1651.03	15
19	2025-10-26	29.23%	Miami Dolphins	1351.39	34	@ Atlanta Falcons	1477.68	10
20	2025-10-05	29.25%	Denver Broncos	1561.20	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1687.30	17
21	2025-10-13	29.46%	Chicago Bears	1457.05	25	@ Washington Commanders	1581.36	24
22	2025-12-07	30.21%	Tennessee Titans	1238.64	31	@ Cleveland Browns	1356.74	29
23	2025-10-13	30.43%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1465.11	24	Buffalo Bills	1632.82	14
24	2026-01-04	30.50%	Cleveland Browns	1351.63	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1467.36	18
25	2025-11-09	30.85%	New Orleans Saints	1322.30	17	@ Carolina Panthers	1435.16	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2025-10-05	66.56	Houston Texans	44	1493.35	38.66%	@ Baltimore Ravens	10	1546.17	60.86%
2	2025-11-16	65.49	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	35	1450.89	34.68%	Los Angeles Chargers	6	1584.89	64.84%
3	2025-09-21	65.35	@ Carolina Panthers	30	1373.42	35.91%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1498.08	63.61%
4	2025-10-26	64.59	Miami Dolphins	34	1351.39	29.23%	@ Atlanta Falcons	10	1477.68	70.30%
5	2025-12-21	64.54	@ Tennessee Titans	26	1248.84	16.08%	Kansas City Chiefs	9	1559.97	83.45%
6	2025-10-09	64.11	@ New York Giants	34	1356.92	16.63%	Philadelphia Eagles	17	1660.95	82.89%
7	2025-11-27	63.68	Cincinnati Bengals	32	1360.23	19.50%	@ Baltimore Ravens	14	1579.16	80.02%
8	2025-11-09	62.10	@ Miami Dolphins	30	1377.75	19.22%	Buffalo Bills	13	1651.19	80.30%
9	2025-09-21	61.66	@ Minnesota Vikings	48	1499.97	46.22%	Cincinnati Bengals	10	1550.32	53.31%
10	2025-12-21	60.92	Cincinnati Bengals	45	1376.00	33.22%	@ Miami Dolphins	21	1469.96	66.31%
11	2025-10-19	55.58	@ Dallas Cowboys	44	1446.88	36.35%	Washington Commanders	22	1568.22	63.17%
12	2025-12-27	52.82	Baltimore Ravens	41	1513.46	31.22%	@ Green Bay Packers	24	1623.33	68.31%
13	2025-09-28	52.42	@ New England Patriots	42	1398.44	47.66%	Carolina Panthers	13	1438.77	51.87%
14	2025-10-23	50.66	@ Los Angeles Chargers	37	1493.32	47.57%	Minnesota Vikings	10	1534.25	51.95%
15	2025-09-14	50.61	Atlanta Falcons	22	1447.47	32.06%	@ Minnesota Vikings	6	1550.58	67.46%
16	2025-10-19	48.38	@ Cleveland Browns	31	1361.59	47.97%	Miami Dolphins	6	1399.77	51.56%
17	2026-01-04	48.36	@ New York Giants	34	1340.83	37.00%	Dallas Cowboys	17	1457.35	62.53%
18	2025-09-07	47.01	@ Indianapolis Colts	33	1462.94	49.43%	Miami Dolphins	8	1490.92	50.09%
19	2025-12-21	46.54	Jacksonville Jaguars	34	1600.26	33.21%	@ Denver Broncos	20	1694.31	66.32%
20	2025-12-07	45.46	@ Minnesota Vikings	31	1426.63	56.06%	Washington Commanders	0	1408.33	43.47%
21	2025-12-28	43.84	New York Giants	34	1297.00	51.86%	@ Las Vegas Raiders	10	1256.74	47.67%
22	2025-10-05	43.80	Washington Commanders	27	1537.56	42.90%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	10	1559.88	56.62%
23	2025-09-21	42.83	@ Chicago Bears	31	1405.25	44.16%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1470.05	55.37%
24	2026-01-04	42.18	Washington Commanders	24	1351.21	14.54%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	17	1631.58	84.99%
25	2025-10-19	41.48	Los Angeles Rams	35	1584.01	57.79%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	7	1501.98	41.73%