2024 NFL Season

272 regular-season games · 14 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2017

Runner-Up

Kansas City Chiefs

7th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2023

Biggest Overachiever

Detroit Lions

3.70 wins above expected

15 wins · 11.30 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New Orleans Saints

3.55 wins below expected

5 wins · 8.55 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	13	4	.765	—	525	368	+157	11.72	+1.28
2	Miami Dolphins	8	9	.471	5	345	364	-19	8.41	-0.41
3	New York Jets	5	12	.294	8	338	404	-66	6.89	-1.89
4	New England Patriots	4	13	.235	9	289	417	-128	5.82	-1.82

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	12	5	.706	—	518	361	+157	10.78	+1.22
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	10	7	.588	2	380	347	+33	9.63	+0.37
3	Cincinnati Bengals	9	8	.529	3	472	434	+38	8.56	+0.44
4	Cleveland Browns	3	14	.176	9	258	435	-177	5.56	-2.56

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	10	7	.588	—	372	372	0	9.03	+0.97
2	Indianapolis Colts	8	9	.471	2	377	427	-50	8.13	-0.13
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	13	.235	6	320	435	-115	7.01	-3.01
4	Tennessee Titans	3	14	.176	7	311	460	-149	6.22	-3.22

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	15	2	.882	—	385	326	+59	11.80	+3.20
2	Los Angeles Chargers Playoffs	11	6	.647	4	402	301	+101	9.62	+1.38
3	Denver Broncos Playoffs	10	7	.588	5	425	311	+114	8.97	+1.03
4	Las Vegas Raiders	4	13	.235	11	309	434	-125	6.01	-2.01

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	14	3	.824	—	463	303	+160	10.91	+3.09
2	Washington Commanders Playoffs	12	5	.706	2	485	391	+94	9.12	+2.88
3	Dallas Cowboys	7	10	.412	7	350	468	-118	7.65	-0.65
4	New York Giants	3	14	.176	11	273	415	-142	5.89	-2.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	15	2	.882	—	564	342	+222	11.30	+3.70
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	14	3	.824	1	432	332	+100	10.61	+3.39
3	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	11	6	.647	4	460	338	+122	10.19	+0.81
4	Chicago Bears	5	12	.294	10	310	370	-60	6.95	-1.95

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	10	7	.588	—	502	385	+117	10.01	-0.01
2	Atlanta Falcons	8	9	.471	2	389	423	-34	8.08	-0.08
3	New Orleans Saints	5	12	.294	5	338	398	-60	8.55	-3.55
4	Carolina Panthers	5	12	.294	5	341	534	-193	4.93	+0.07

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	7	.588	—	367	386	-19	8.05	+1.95
2	Seattle Seahawks	10	7	.588	—	375	368	+7	8.39	+1.61
3	Arizona Cardinals	8	9	.471	2	400	379	+21	7.73	+0.27
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	11	.353	4	389	436	-47	9.53	-3.53

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 32

Los Angeles Chargers 12

Jan 11

Baltimore Ravens 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Jan 11

Buffalo Bills 31

Denver Broncos 7

Jan 12

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs 23

Houston Texans 14

Jan 18

Buffalo Bills 27

Baltimore Ravens 25

Jan 19

Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs 32

Buffalo Bills 29

Jan 26

NFC

Wild Card Round

Philadelphia Eagles 22

Green Bay Packers 10

Jan 12

Washington Commanders 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Jan 12

Los Angeles Rams 27

Minnesota Vikings 9

Jan 13

Divisional Round

Washington Commanders 45

Detroit Lions 31

Jan 18

Philadelphia Eagles 28

Los Angeles Rams 22

Jan 19

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 55

Washington Commanders 23

Jan 26

Super Bowl

Philadelphia Eagles 40

Kansas City Chiefs 22

Feb 9

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1770	15	11.30	+3.70	99.31%	3	8	10	11	13	14	17
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1726	12	10.78	+1.22	82.28%	4	8	9	11	12	14	17
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1719	13	11.72	+1.28	83.79%	4	9	10	12	13	15	17
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1716	14	10.91	+3.09	98.09%	3	8	10	11	12	14	17
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1709	15	11.80	+3.20	98.60%	4	9	11	12	13	15	17
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1648	11	10.19	+0.81	75.09%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1647	14	10.61	+3.39	98.24%	3	7	9	11	12	14	17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1601	10	10.01	-0.01	60.50%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1591	11	9.62	+1.38	82.88%	2	6	8	10	11	13	17
Washington Commanders	NFC	NFC East	1586	12	9.12	+2.88	96.25%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1581	10	8.97	+1.03	78.55%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1564	9	8.56	+0.44	68.90%	2	5	7	9	10	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1547	10	8.39	+1.61	85.70%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1538	10	8.05	+1.95	89.62%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1531	10	9.63	+0.37	66.70%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1508	10	9.03	+0.97	77.60%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1477	8	8.41	-0.41	52.47%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1476	8	7.73	+0.27	65.73%	1	4	6	8	9	11	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1431	7	7.65	-0.65	47.53%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1427	6	9.53	-3.53	6.01%	1	6	8	10	11	13	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1418	8	8.13	-0.13	57.51%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1417	5	6.89	-1.89	24.64%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1411	8	8.08	-0.08	58.92%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1372	5	6.95	-1.95	22.01%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1362	5	8.55	-3.55	6.18%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1354	4	7.01	-3.01	10.14%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1337	4	6.01	-2.01	21.63%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1325	5	4.93	+0.07	64.65%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1306	4	5.82	-1.82	25.59%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1306	3	5.89	-2.89	10.07%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1304	3	5.56	-2.56	13.12%	0	3	4	5	7	9	14
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1294	3	6.22	-3.22	7.27%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Commanders
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Commanders	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Commanders	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	4-0 (3.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-4 (2.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.37%	0.55%	0.55%	0.92%	1.10%	0.37%	0.18%	4.04%
7–13	0.55%	1.10%	3.49%	2.02%	3.68%	2.02%	0.55%	13.42%
14–20	0.55%	3.49%	8.09%	7.72%	4.41%	1.84%	0.92%	27.02%
21–27	0.92%	2.02%	7.72%	8.46%	5.15%	0.92%	0.55%	25.74%
28–34	1.10%	3.68%	4.41%	5.15%	1.84%	1.84%	0.37%	18.38%
35–41	0.37%	2.02%	1.84%	0.92%	1.84%	0.37%	0.37%	7.72%
42+	0.18%	0.55%	0.92%	0.55%	0.37%	0.37%	0.74%	3.68%
Total	4.04%	13.42%	27.02%	25.74%	18.38%	7.72%	3.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.91	22.91	+0.00
SD	9.80	9.80	14.57
CV	0.43	0.43	—
Max	52	52	+46
Min	0	0	-46

Games Played: 272

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%
21–27	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	35.29%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	5.88%	17.65%	23.53%	23.53%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.53	22.29	+1.24
SD	11.10	10.43	16.34
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	47	42	+31
Min	6	6	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	5.88%	29.41%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.76%	23.53%	29.41%	17.65%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.88	24.88	-2.00
SD	10.03	10.42	14.08
CV	0.44	0.42	—
Max	38	44	+27
Min	6	7	-32

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
28–34	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	29.41%
35–41	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	41.18%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	17.65%	17.65%	35.29%	17.65%	5.88%	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.47	21.24	+9.24
SD	7.84	9.72	12.90
CV	0.26	0.46	—
Max	41	38	+31
Min	16	2	-7

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
14–20	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	17.65%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
35–41	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%	17.65%
Total	—	29.41%	17.65%	29.41%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.88	21.65	+9.24
SD	10.26	10.92	15.09
CV	0.33	0.50	—
Max	48	44	+37
Min	10	10	-25

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	17.65%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	35.29%
21–27	—	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
Total	—	—	5.88%	29.41%	29.41%	23.53%	11.76%	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.06	31.41	-11.35
SD	11.05	8.86	15.48
CV	0.55	0.28	—
Max	44	48	+14
Min	3	17	-37

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	23.53%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	41.18%	17.65%	23.53%	5.88%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.24	21.76	-3.53
SD	9.48	8.27	13.48
CV	0.52	0.38	—
Max	36	38	+26
Min	3	6	-25

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
21–27	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	—	11.76%	—	11.76%	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	29.41%	5.88%	23.53%	5.88%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.76	25.53	+2.24
SD	8.92	11.43	9.76
CV	0.32	0.45	—
Max	41	44	+18
Min	10	6	-20

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	23.53%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	47.06%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	23.53%	41.18%	11.76%	17.65%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.18	25.59	-10.41
SD	7.61	7.53	9.55
CV	0.50	0.29	—
Max	32	41	+5
Min	3	13	-25

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	29.41%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	29.41%	29.41%	23.53%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.59	27.53	-6.94
SD	8.57	9.93	16.91
CV	0.42	0.36	—
Max	34	47	+16
Min	6	14	-38

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	11.76%	17.65%	—	—	—	—	29.41%
35–41	11.76%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	29.41%	23.53%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	18.29	+6.71
SD	10.74	11.23	17.20
CV	0.43	0.61	—
Max	41	41	+38
Min	6	0	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	5.88%	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	29.41%
Total	11.76%	17.65%	35.29%	5.88%	23.53%	—	5.88%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	33.18	20.12	+13.06
SD	11.06	11.28	15.16
CV	0.33	0.56	—
Max	52	48	+46
Min	16	6	-6

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	52.94%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	23.53%	23.53%	29.41%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.06	19.88	+7.18
SD	6.45	9.33	12.35
CV	0.24	0.47	—
Max	38	34	+34
Min	14	0	-10

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	29.41%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	47.06%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	17.65%	29.41%	35.29%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.88	21.88	+0.00
SD	9.07	7.08	13.56
CV	0.41	0.32	—
Max	41	34	+24
Min	2	10	-29

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	17.65%	41.18%	23.53%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.18	25.12	-2.94
SD	8.81	8.40	7.99
CV	0.40	0.33	—
Max	38	45	+8
Min	6	10	-18

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
7–13	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	23.53%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
21–27	—	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	23.53%	17.65%	23.53%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.82	25.59	-6.76
SD	8.57	12.10	15.00
CV	0.46	0.47	—
Max	37	52	+16
Min	6	6	-46

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	11.76%	23.53%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	47.06%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	47.06%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.65	19.18	+3.47
SD	7.41	7.86	12.35
CV	0.33	0.41	—
Max	30	38	+19
Min	0	7	-38

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
14–20	—	—	23.53%	5.88%	23.53%	—	—	52.94%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	29.41%	17.65%	35.29%	11.76%	—	100%

Las Vegas Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.18	25.53	-7.35
SD	4.90	8.99	9.56
CV	0.27	0.35	—
Max	26	41	+15
Min	9	10	-19

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
21–27	5.88%	17.65%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	29.41%	41.18%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	100%

Los Angeles Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.65	17.71	+5.94
SD	8.68	9.37	13.62
CV	0.37	0.53	—
Max	40	40	+33
Min	10	3	-23

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	—	5.88%	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
Total	5.88%	11.76%	23.53%	35.29%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.59	22.71	-1.12
SD	8.11	10.56	10.68
CV	0.38	0.47	—
Max	44	42	+10
Min	10	6	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
14–20	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	41.18%	11.76%	35.29%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.29	21.41	-1.12
SD	9.27	8.45	13.22
CV	0.46	0.39	—
Max	34	32	+19
Min	3	3	-21

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
21–27	—	11.76%	11.76%	17.65%	—	—	—	41.18%
28–34	5.88%	11.76%	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	35.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	5.88%	29.41%	11.76%	29.41%	23.53%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.41	19.53	+5.88
SD	7.78	8.76	11.90
CV	0.31	0.45	—
Max	42	31	+27
Min	9	6	-22

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
14–20	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	35.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	29.41%	29.41%	11.76%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	24.53	-7.53
SD	6.05	9.99	12.45
CV	0.36	0.41	—
Max	25	41	+16
Min	3	3	-33

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	17.65%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	—	11.76%	29.41%	41.18%	11.76%	—	5.88%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.88	23.41	-3.53
SD	12.57	9.91	18.28
CV	0.63	0.42	—
Max	47	51	+37
Min	0	10	-34

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	17.65%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	17.65%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
Total	—	—	41.18%	23.53%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.06	24.41	-8.35
SD	10.15	6.58	11.78
CV	0.63	0.27	—
Max	45	35	+12
Min	3	14	-27

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	11.76%	—	29.41%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	41.18%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	29.41%	23.53%	11.76%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.88	23.76	-3.88
SD	7.58	9.60	12.90
CV	0.38	0.40	—
Max	32	40	+21
Min	6	3	-26

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	29.41%
28–34	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
35–41	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	23.53%	35.29%	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.24	17.82	+9.41
SD	7.77	9.02	12.48
CV	0.29	0.51	—
Max	41	36	+34
Min	15	3	-17

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
Total	5.88%	17.65%	35.29%	23.53%	11.76%	5.88%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.35	20.41	+1.94
SD	9.06	8.97	11.62
CV	0.41	0.44	—
Max	44	38	+22
Min	10	6	-19

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	23.53%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	17.65%	17.65%	29.41%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.88	25.65	-2.76
SD	9.54	9.84	14.69
CV	0.42	0.38	—
Max	38	47	+25
Min	6	12	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	5.88%	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
28–34	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	17.65%	—	29.41%	23.53%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.06	21.65	+0.41
SD	7.48	10.98	12.16
CV	0.34	0.51	—
Max	34	42	+21
Min	6	3	-21

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	—	29.41%
35–41	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	—	11.76%	35.29%	29.41%	11.76%	11.76%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.53	22.65	+6.88
SD	10.51	8.78	14.68
CV	0.36	0.39	—
Max	51	41	+34
Min	7	7	-19

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	23.53%	5.88%	—	11.76%	52.94%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.76%	17.65%	35.29%	11.76%	11.76%	11.76%	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.29	27.06	-8.76
SD	7.51	10.87	12.53
CV	0.41	0.40	—
Max	32	52	+19
Min	6	10	-38

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	35.29%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	—	11.76%	35.29%	17.65%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

Washington Commanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.53	23.00	+5.53
SD	8.54	8.57	13.51
CV	0.30	0.37	—
Max	42	37	+33
Min	18	7	-17

Games Played: 17

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	15	11.30	+3.70
2	Minnesota Vikings	14	10.61	+3.39
3	Kansas City Chiefs	15	11.80	+3.20
4	Philadelphia Eagles	14	10.91	+3.09
5	Washington Commanders	12	9.12	+2.88

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New Orleans Saints	5	8.55	-3.55
2	San Francisco 49ers	6	9.53	-3.53
3	Tennessee Titans	3	6.22	-3.22
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	7.01	-3.01
5	New York Giants	3	5.89	-2.89

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	11	Sep 22 – Dec 5	1 in 117
2	Philadelphia Eagles	10	Oct 13 – Dec 15	1 in 94
3	Los Angeles Rams	5	Dec 1 – Dec 28	1 in 50
4	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Sep 5 – Nov 10	1 in 49
5	Minnesota Vikings	9	Nov 3 – Dec 29	1 in 27

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	7	Sep 22 – Nov 3	1 in 311
2	Chicago Bears	10	Oct 27 – Dec 26	1 in 123
3	New York Giants	10	Oct 13 – Dec 22	1 in 83
4	Las Vegas Raiders	10	Oct 6 – Dec 16	1 in 40
5	New England Patriots	6	Sep 15 – Oct 20	1 in 26

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	84.61%	12.80%	2.34%	0.25%
Miami Dolphins	11.14%	51.91%	25.98%	10.97%
New York Jets	3.32%	23.77%	41.96%	30.95%
New England Patriots	0.93%	11.52%	29.72%	57.83%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	58.10%	28.44%	11.91%	1.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	28.64%	39.35%	26.67%	5.34%
Cincinnati Bengals	12.70%	28.45%	45.78%	13.07%
Cleveland Browns	0.56%	3.76%	15.64%	80.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	49.92%	28.56%	15.05%	6.47%
Indianapolis Colts	30.09%	31.90%	23.57%	14.44%
Jacksonville Jaguars	13.45%	23.64%	32.15%	30.76%
Tennessee Titans	6.54%	15.90%	29.23%	48.33%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	70.11%	21.78%	7.29%	0.82%
Los Angeles Chargers	17.91%	39.43%	33.69%	8.97%
Denver Broncos	11.27%	34.09%	41.71%	12.93%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.71%	4.70%	17.31%	77.28%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	68.14%	23.86%	6.65%	1.35%
Washington Commanders	22.92%	44.89%	23.81%	8.38%
Dallas Cowboys	7.53%	22.87%	44.71%	24.89%
New York Giants	1.41%	8.38%	24.83%	65.38%

Team	1	2	3	4
Detroit Lions	46.70%	31.32%	18.73%	3.25%
Minnesota Vikings	29.93%	33.79%	29.43%	6.85%
Green Bay Packers	22.51%	31.14%	37.00%	9.35%
Chicago Bears	0.86%	3.75%	14.84%	80.55%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	57.61%	27.93%	12.45%	2.01%
New Orleans Saints	23.70%	35.52%	32.12%	8.66%
Atlanta Falcons	17.71%	31.87%	39.19%	11.23%
Carolina Panthers	0.98%	4.68%	16.24%	78.10%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	46.60%	26.74%	16.96%	9.70%
Seattle Seahawks	21.68%	26.39%	26.67%	25.26%
Los Angeles Rams	17.84%	25.37%	28.30%	28.49%
Arizona Cardinals	13.88%	21.50%	28.07%	36.55%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Buffalo Bills	29.37%	24.01%	16.51%	9.64%	6.75%	4.57%	3.51%	2.05%	1.40%	0.95%	0.60%	0.30%	0.19%	0.10%	0.04%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	32.75%	21.09%	14.82%	9.48%	7.42%	4.67%	3.10%	2.40%	1.63%	1.01%	0.90%	0.42%	0.14%	0.12%	0.05%	—
Baltimore Ravens	15.23%	17.02%	16.77%	12.24%	9.28%	7.73%	6.49%	4.60%	3.49%	2.80%	1.88%	1.32%	0.58%	0.26%	0.25%	0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.73%	8.52%	9.94%	11.10%	10.79%	10.82%	9.04%	7.76%	6.52%	6.15%	4.64%	3.73%	2.19%	1.54%	1.02%	0.51%
Los Angeles Chargers	5.53%	7.76%	9.17%	10.06%	10.83%	10.41%	9.06%	8.54%	7.80%	6.66%	4.95%	3.25%	2.80%	1.73%	1.09%	0.36%
Houston Texans	3.06%	5.90%	8.17%	11.15%	10.49%	9.61%	10.10%	8.80%	7.98%	6.73%	5.19%	4.50%	3.33%	2.40%	1.52%	1.07%
Denver Broncos	3.12%	4.37%	6.42%	8.25%	9.74%	9.67%	9.26%	9.57%	8.75%	8.71%	7.15%	5.49%	3.59%	3.11%	1.88%	0.92%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.82%	3.88%	4.74%	6.40%	8.07%	8.34%	9.32%	9.17%	10.02%	9.28%	8.69%	6.91%	4.97%	3.93%	2.87%	1.59%
Miami Dolphins	1.46%	2.78%	4.57%	5.98%	7.67%	9.18%	10.56%	10.68%	9.58%	8.84%	7.46%	7.00%	5.15%	4.13%	2.89%	2.07%
Indianapolis Colts	1.16%	2.67%	4.60%	7.06%	7.27%	8.56%	8.46%	9.23%	8.98%	8.29%	8.02%	7.72%	6.18%	5.03%	3.78%	2.99%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.19%	0.70%	1.56%	3.27%	3.67%	4.90%	5.67%	7.20%	8.12%	8.67%	9.94%	9.99%	10.07%	9.57%	8.38%	8.10%
New York Jets	0.30%	0.66%	1.23%	2.03%	2.84%	4.41%	5.45%	6.74%	7.38%	9.24%	10.54%	10.82%	10.71%	9.77%	9.15%	8.73%
Tennessee Titans	0.09%	0.25%	0.61%	1.54%	2.09%	2.52%	3.46%	4.59%	5.95%	6.99%	8.79%	10.29%	11.90%	12.73%	13.99%	14.21%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.08%	0.17%	0.40%	0.78%	1.28%	1.65%	2.36%	3.13%	4.55%	5.62%	7.26%	9.77%	13.35%	15.71%	17.39%	16.50%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.14%	0.31%	0.56%	1.13%	1.75%	2.50%	3.45%	4.76%	5.98%	7.62%	10.00%	12.06%	13.79%	15.74%	20.17%
Cleveland Browns	0.07%	0.08%	0.18%	0.46%	0.68%	1.21%	1.66%	2.09%	3.09%	4.08%	6.37%	8.49%	12.79%	16.08%	19.96%	22.71%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Detroit Lions	26.98%	15.64%	11.80%	10.63%	8.66%	6.73%	4.77%	4.29%	3.48%	2.61%	1.77%	1.19%	0.74%	0.46%	0.17%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.25%	18.23%	15.27%	11.35%	9.15%	7.70%	6.01%	4.44%	3.30%	2.52%	1.84%	1.37%	0.78%	0.42%	0.27%	0.10%
Minnesota Vikings	15.41%	12.56%	10.98%	10.97%	10.13%	8.15%	6.58%	6.32%	5.75%	4.31%	3.19%	2.15%	1.83%	0.97%	0.49%	0.21%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.92%	11.58%	12.00%	11.48%	9.75%	8.73%	8.53%	7.21%	5.93%	4.93%	3.90%	2.90%	1.83%	1.10%	0.85%	0.36%
Green Bay Packers	11.65%	10.01%	9.41%	10.06%	9.69%	8.62%	7.54%	7.69%	7.68%	5.65%	4.15%	3.04%	2.36%	1.48%	0.73%	0.24%
San Francisco 49ers	6.35%	8.90%	9.91%	9.60%	9.18%	8.89%	8.68%	7.25%	6.56%	6.41%	5.18%	4.59%	3.30%	2.67%	1.81%	0.72%
Washington Commanders	3.14%	6.33%	7.02%	7.28%	8.84%	8.95%	9.64%	9.02%	7.89%	7.82%	6.83%	5.83%	4.21%	3.37%	2.60%	1.23%
New Orleans Saints	2.47%	4.02%	5.18%	5.78%	7.06%	7.86%	8.09%	8.26%	8.95%	8.10%	8.34%	8.27%	6.80%	4.70%	3.63%	2.49%
Seattle Seahawks	2.33%	3.42%	4.74%	5.34%	5.93%	7.65%	7.50%	7.33%	8.17%	8.12%	8.61%	7.91%	7.81%	7.04%	5.47%	2.63%
Atlanta Falcons	1.37%	2.63%	3.65%	4.76%	5.26%	6.25%	7.44%	8.43%	7.96%	8.84%	9.88%	10.08%	8.44%	6.56%	4.92%	3.53%
Los Angeles Rams	1.73%	2.44%	3.75%	4.55%	5.36%	6.26%	7.05%	7.48%	8.30%	8.39%	8.54%	8.35%	8.98%	8.25%	6.55%	4.02%
Arizona Cardinals	1.19%	1.84%	2.94%	3.60%	4.27%	5.16%	6.38%	6.52%	7.37%	8.93%	8.86%	8.90%	10.31%	9.82%	9.08%	4.83%
Dallas Cowboys	0.93%	1.69%	2.14%	2.73%	3.69%	5.23%	5.88%	6.99%	7.44%	9.79%	10.36%	11.00%	9.04%	9.36%	8.39%	5.34%
Chicago Bears	0.20%	0.47%	0.71%	1.14%	1.87%	2.18%	3.00%	4.45%	6.00%	6.65%	8.53%	11.54%	15.19%	16.05%	13.42%	8.60%
New York Giants	0.07%	0.19%	0.39%	0.50%	0.85%	1.26%	2.02%	3.05%	3.55%	4.60%	6.26%	7.73%	10.52%	15.60%	21.44%	21.97%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.05%	0.11%	0.23%	0.31%	0.38%	0.89%	1.27%	1.67%	2.33%	3.76%	5.15%	7.86%	12.15%	20.18%	43.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Kansas City Chiefs	19.41%	14.33%	11.07%	9.74%	7.02%	6.41%	5.35%	4.50%	3.85%	3.45%	2.57%	2.19%	1.79%	1.50%	1.30%	1.10%	0.80%	0.77%	0.66%	0.52%	0.45%	0.37%	0.23%	0.22%	0.12%	0.11%	0.08%	0.04%	0.04%	0.01%	—	—
Buffalo Bills	17.62%	13.68%	12.16%	10.01%	7.61%	7.61%	4.91%	4.97%	3.28%	3.68%	2.21%	2.29%	1.96%	1.55%	1.19%	1.11%	0.92%	0.71%	0.56%	0.54%	0.35%	0.25%	0.20%	0.20%	0.13%	0.13%	0.04%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	—
Detroit Lions	13.58%	12.04%	9.03%	7.80%	7.37%	5.70%	6.12%	4.97%	4.88%	3.75%	3.71%	2.92%	2.96%	2.06%	2.62%	1.67%	1.75%	1.21%	1.33%	0.98%	0.84%	0.70%	0.53%	0.39%	0.38%	0.17%	0.19%	0.18%	0.07%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.00%	9.01%	8.69%	9.25%	8.10%	7.37%	6.20%	5.76%	4.91%	4.82%	4.01%	3.47%	3.30%	2.67%	2.54%	2.01%	1.65%	1.59%	1.27%	1.06%	1.09%	0.72%	0.70%	0.52%	0.36%	0.27%	0.23%	0.16%	0.13%	0.05%	0.05%	0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	8.43%	7.68%	8.91%	7.60%	8.05%	7.21%	6.24%	5.88%	5.08%	4.46%	4.06%	3.77%	3.27%	3.34%	2.13%	2.42%	1.67%	1.90%	1.49%	1.40%	0.94%	1.22%	0.74%	0.70%	0.37%	0.37%	0.29%	0.12%	0.12%	0.09%	0.05%	—
Minnesota Vikings	7.07%	7.62%	6.99%	6.48%	6.43%	6.04%	5.78%	5.44%	5.38%	4.73%	4.41%	4.01%	3.56%	3.00%	3.16%	3.30%	2.87%	2.10%	2.29%	1.73%	1.67%	1.12%	1.09%	0.99%	0.82%	0.61%	0.46%	0.33%	0.24%	0.18%	0.08%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.73%	5.00%	5.36%	6.13%	6.39%	5.82%	5.92%	5.49%	5.58%	4.83%	4.72%	4.20%	4.46%	4.19%	4.08%	3.23%	3.33%	2.86%	2.27%	2.42%	1.98%	1.61%	1.39%	1.23%	0.98%	0.76%	0.70%	0.43%	0.38%	0.27%	0.20%	0.06%
Green Bay Packers	4.97%	5.79%	5.76%	5.60%	5.01%	5.37%	5.84%	4.56%	5.26%	4.61%	5.26%	3.93%	4.03%	3.36%	4.53%	3.44%	4.18%	2.94%	2.59%	2.24%	2.23%	1.82%	1.55%	1.33%	1.17%	0.79%	0.59%	0.50%	0.36%	0.26%	0.09%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.76%	3.38%	4.00%	4.60%	4.56%	5.21%	5.08%	5.71%	5.31%	4.71%	4.94%	5.35%	4.20%	4.60%	3.66%	3.87%	3.58%	3.23%	2.85%	3.41%	2.34%	2.66%	2.05%	1.64%	1.37%	1.23%	1.08%	0.95%	0.66%	0.57%	0.23%	0.21%
San Francisco 49ers	2.51%	3.51%	3.95%	4.74%	5.08%	5.00%	4.94%	4.87%	5.11%	4.79%	4.82%	4.08%	4.90%	4.14%	3.98%	3.58%	3.54%	3.27%	3.37%	3.05%	2.96%	2.21%	2.21%	1.99%	1.77%	1.45%	1.18%	1.03%	0.82%	0.62%	0.34%	0.19%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.52%	3.49%	3.89%	4.18%	4.67%	4.43%	4.86%	4.60%	4.93%	5.47%	4.70%	5.07%	4.62%	4.38%	4.41%	4.01%	3.87%	4.17%	3.17%	3.19%	2.58%	2.74%	1.81%	1.77%	1.56%	1.36%	1.00%	0.94%	0.67%	0.59%	0.21%	0.14%
Houston Texans	1.30%	2.23%	2.59%	2.76%	3.80%	4.09%	4.30%	5.14%	4.53%	5.33%	4.32%	5.26%	4.71%	5.28%	3.78%	4.41%	4.04%	4.68%	3.31%	3.65%	3.17%	2.96%	2.26%	2.53%	2.00%	1.91%	1.28%	1.40%	1.14%	0.74%	0.60%	0.50%
Washington Commanders	1.22%	1.89%	2.74%	3.42%	3.31%	3.99%	3.91%	4.28%	4.55%	4.59%	4.84%	4.54%	4.90%	4.35%	4.69%	4.68%	4.01%	3.77%	4.03%	3.84%	3.37%	3.10%	3.11%	2.73%	2.24%	1.91%	1.53%	1.51%	1.18%	0.82%	0.60%	0.35%
Denver Broncos	1.47%	1.62%	2.17%	2.66%	3.15%	3.21%	3.71%	4.35%	4.44%	4.37%	4.71%	4.53%	4.29%	4.62%	4.30%	5.36%	4.10%	4.54%	4.13%	4.30%	3.37%	3.70%	3.12%	3.00%	2.16%	2.05%	1.80%	1.63%	1.14%	0.96%	0.69%	0.35%
New Orleans Saints	0.76%	1.51%	1.72%	2.19%	2.56%	2.56%	3.15%	3.21%	3.96%	3.82%	3.95%	3.87%	4.15%	4.41%	4.38%	4.25%	4.46%	4.18%	4.37%	4.22%	4.07%	4.10%	4.12%	3.87%	3.42%	2.82%	2.46%	2.04%	1.81%	1.53%	1.46%	0.62%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.82%	1.12%	1.79%	1.82%	2.26%	2.65%	3.09%	3.06%	3.78%	3.87%	3.93%	4.14%	4.49%	4.75%	4.37%	4.63%	4.55%	4.99%	4.17%	4.84%	3.85%	4.93%	3.41%	3.41%	2.95%	2.85%	2.12%	2.39%	1.71%	1.54%	1.05%	0.67%
Miami Dolphins	0.69%	0.85%	1.39%	1.64%	1.97%	2.44%	2.83%	3.39%	3.29%	3.82%	3.98%	4.54%	4.05%	5.58%	4.22%	5.04%	4.17%	5.76%	4.32%	4.30%	4.11%	4.12%	3.48%	3.63%	3.06%	2.93%	2.40%	2.59%	1.79%	1.60%	1.17%	0.85%
Seattle Seahawks	0.81%	1.16%	1.51%	1.71%	2.23%	2.89%	2.63%	3.11%	3.29%	3.14%	4.05%	3.92%	4.16%	3.84%	4.29%	3.84%	4.34%	3.76%	4.36%	4.10%	4.68%	3.93%	3.81%	3.90%	3.94%	3.22%	3.40%	2.92%	2.59%	1.95%	1.71%	0.81%
Indianapolis Colts	0.42%	0.58%	1.41%	1.25%	2.06%	2.35%	2.71%	3.49%	3.00%	3.60%	3.34%	4.59%	4.06%	4.41%	3.59%	4.73%	4.30%	4.89%	4.13%	4.46%	3.95%	4.19%	3.91%	4.06%	3.59%	3.64%	3.24%	2.58%	2.31%	2.04%	1.90%	1.22%
Atlanta Falcons	0.48%	0.77%	1.13%	1.44%	1.97%	2.00%	2.23%	2.55%	2.37%	2.98%	3.39%	3.29%	4.17%	4.01%	4.32%	4.02%	4.18%	4.22%	4.78%	4.25%	4.85%	4.59%	5.18%	4.71%	4.19%	3.93%	3.19%	3.01%	2.66%	2.30%	1.74%	1.10%
Los Angeles Rams	0.58%	0.79%	1.07%	1.49%	1.68%	1.92%	2.28%	2.54%	2.75%	3.03%	3.41%	3.19%	3.60%	3.98%	4.36%	3.74%	4.25%	3.90%	4.46%	4.40%	4.85%	4.00%	4.45%	4.08%	4.66%	4.04%	3.86%	3.55%	3.10%	2.37%	2.17%	1.45%
Arizona Cardinals	0.33%	0.67%	0.86%	1.07%	1.34%	1.40%	1.97%	1.84%	2.28%	2.32%	2.87%	2.87%	3.20%	3.08%	4.04%	3.38%	4.00%	4.06%	4.94%	4.40%	4.67%	4.24%	4.57%	4.57%	5.43%	4.54%	4.94%	4.14%	4.11%	3.37%	2.70%	1.80%
Dallas Cowboys	0.27%	0.58%	0.72%	0.86%	1.02%	1.44%	1.45%	1.30%	2.06%	2.28%	2.93%	2.58%	3.28%	3.19%	3.89%	3.64%	3.94%	3.80%	5.34%	4.71%	5.05%	4.85%	5.46%	5.15%	4.63%	4.48%	4.51%	4.28%	4.11%	3.30%	2.90%	2.00%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.05%	0.19%	0.30%	0.39%	0.63%	0.74%	1.22%	1.51%	1.42%	1.77%	1.99%	2.61%	2.39%	3.14%	2.69%	3.50%	3.57%	4.33%	3.74%	4.54%	4.37%	5.54%	4.54%	5.59%	4.62%	5.57%	5.49%	5.43%	4.79%	4.75%	4.44%	4.15%
New York Jets	0.11%	0.21%	0.25%	0.34%	0.59%	0.65%	1.02%	0.87%	1.20%	1.49%	1.64%	2.38%	2.11%	2.85%	2.79%	3.07%	3.46%	3.87%	4.08%	4.55%	4.50%	5.35%	4.82%	5.54%	5.56%	6.10%	5.27%	5.57%	4.85%	5.29%	4.99%	4.63%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.11%	0.23%	0.24%	0.41%	0.42%	0.66%	0.59%	0.97%	1.26%	1.36%	1.31%	1.61%	1.78%	2.79%	2.83%	3.73%	2.66%	3.86%	3.78%	5.24%	4.64%	6.38%	5.45%	7.42%	6.33%	8.06%	5.99%	6.69%	5.07%	4.64%	3.46%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%	0.06%	0.08%	0.15%	0.20%	0.28%	0.51%	0.79%	0.71%	0.91%	1.13%	1.54%	1.49%	1.37%	1.73%	2.42%	2.68%	3.01%	3.06%	3.22%	3.79%	4.43%	4.81%	5.50%	5.68%	6.21%	5.96%	7.43%	7.26%	8.17%	7.63%	7.78%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.01%	0.02%	0.10%	0.10%	0.16%	0.22%	0.27%	0.35%	0.47%	0.74%	0.72%	0.91%	1.11%	1.17%	1.38%	1.58%	2.03%	2.07%	2.63%	2.93%	3.44%	3.80%	4.31%	5.01%	5.55%	6.78%	7.02%	8.60%	8.59%	9.94%	9.04%	8.95%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.12%	0.11%	0.21%	0.23%	0.26%	0.50%	0.54%	0.72%	0.92%	1.02%	1.06%	1.42%	1.81%	1.84%	2.32%	2.77%	2.87%	3.33%	3.89%	4.41%	4.64%	5.30%	6.76%	6.56%	7.25%	7.84%	9.71%	10.04%	11.51%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.06%	0.05%	0.10%	0.16%	0.23%	0.30%	0.27%	0.31%	0.41%	0.66%	0.90%	1.13%	1.09%	1.69%	1.49%	2.05%	1.81%	2.64%	2.50%	3.17%	3.15%	4.28%	4.52%	5.34%	6.00%	7.35%	7.93%	9.67%	9.70%	10.30%	10.73%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.06%	0.10%	0.06%	0.17%	0.23%	0.34%	0.35%	0.50%	0.58%	0.59%	0.72%	1.06%	1.15%	1.39%	1.56%	1.72%	2.33%	2.74%	3.10%	3.92%	4.14%	5.29%	6.32%	7.60%	8.33%	9.90%	10.97%	11.98%	12.70%
Carolina Panthers	—	—	0.02%	0.06%	—	0.08%	0.12%	0.12%	0.21%	0.08%	0.15%	0.25%	0.44%	0.53%	0.62%	0.69%	0.75%	1.07%	1.31%	1.27%	2.00%	1.97%	3.15%	2.99%	3.94%	4.36%	6.12%	6.69%	9.24%	11.16%	16.95%	23.66%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	32.75%	20.77%	12.86%	3.73%	12.50%	6.77%	3.63%	6.99%
Buffalo Bills	29.37%	25.42%	19.59%	10.23%	3.49%	3.41%	3.21%	5.28%
Baltimore Ravens	15.23%	17.63%	18.00%	7.24%	10.72%	8.41%	6.98%	15.79%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.73%	8.25%	9.73%	4.93%	13.73%	12.24%	10.37%	35.02%
Los Angeles Chargers	5.53%	6.47%	4.29%	1.62%	18.96%	13.78%	10.75%	38.60%
Denver Broncos	3.12%	3.42%	3.29%	1.44%	15.02%	12.43%	10.75%	50.53%
Houston Texans	3.06%	6.41%	11.28%	29.17%	1.98%	3.89%	6.16%	38.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.82%	3.73%	4.64%	2.51%	8.11%	10.13%	10.14%	58.92%
Miami Dolphins	1.46%	2.78%	4.15%	2.75%	7.07%	11.02%	12.16%	58.61%
Indianapolis Colts	1.16%	2.97%	6.45%	19.51%	1.70%	4.45%	6.13%	57.63%
New York Jets	0.30%	0.67%	1.25%	1.10%	2.62%	4.42%	6.00%	83.64%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.19%	0.80%	2.58%	9.88%	0.86%	2.60%	4.49%	78.60%
Tennessee Titans	0.09%	0.33%	1.08%	5.04%	0.58%	1.62%	2.56%	88.70%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.08%	0.11%	0.32%	0.20%	1.40%	1.75%	2.41%	93.73%
Cleveland Browns	0.07%	0.08%	0.18%	0.23%	0.58%	1.28%	1.59%	95.99%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.16%	0.31%	0.42%	0.68%	1.80%	2.67%	93.92%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Detroit Lions	26.98%	12.13%	5.46%	2.13%	21.17%	10.29%	6.49%	15.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.25%	21.01%	17.24%	12.64%	4.93%	7.00%	5.46%	14.47%
Minnesota Vikings	15.41%	8.98%	4.23%	1.31%	22.03%	12.87%	8.91%	26.26%
Green Bay Packers	11.65%	6.51%	3.04%	1.31%	20.32%	13.07%	9.88%	34.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.92%	13.44%	16.69%	18.56%	3.13%	5.49%	6.27%	27.50%
San Francisco 49ers	6.35%	10.52%	14.29%	15.44%	3.56%	5.11%	7.17%	37.56%
Washington Commanders	3.14%	7.37%	6.76%	5.65%	6.50%	10.90%	10.31%	49.37%
New Orleans Saints	2.47%	4.91%	7.06%	9.26%	3.26%	6.42%	7.57%	59.05%
Seattle Seahawks	2.33%	3.95%	6.72%	8.68%	2.96%	5.76%	6.77%	62.83%
Los Angeles Rams	1.73%	2.99%	5.61%	7.51%	2.65%	4.87%	6.36%	68.28%
Atlanta Falcons	1.37%	3.37%	5.25%	7.72%	2.44%	5.17%	6.56%	68.12%
Arizona Cardinals	1.19%	2.20%	4.38%	6.11%	2.18%	3.87%	5.58%	74.49%
Dallas Cowboys	0.93%	1.91%	2.39%	2.30%	2.38%	5.09%	6.63%	78.37%
Chicago Bears	0.20%	0.29%	0.24%	0.13%	1.91%	2.60%	3.37%	91.26%
New York Giants	0.07%	0.33%	0.39%	0.62%	0.48%	1.18%	1.97%	94.96%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.09%	0.25%	0.63%	0.10%	0.31%	0.70%	97.91%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	71.26%	71.26%	50.10%	33.30%	19.90%
Buffalo Bills	77.58%	77.58%	49.49%	28.09%	14.64%
Kansas City Chiefs	75.86%	75.86%	47.90%	26.80%	13.72%
Baltimore Ravens	68.98%	65.96%	42.24%	24.81%	13.66%
Philadelphia Eagles	68.28%	65.52%	42.55%	23.96%	12.94%
Minnesota Vikings	58.33%	50.61%	25.99%	12.49%	5.88%
Green Bay Packers	54.13%	44.17%	22.06%	10.07%	4.61%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	63.58%	43.68%	19.89%	7.93%	3.17%
Los Angeles Chargers	55.87%	33.20%	14.03%	5.70%	2.33%
Washington Commanders	47.49%	26.95%	11.58%	4.56%	1.85%
Denver Broncos	46.35%	25.11%	9.92%	3.82%	1.56%
Pittsburgh Steelers	59.25%	30.89%	10.58%	3.21%	1.12%
Cincinnati Bengals	39.26%	19.95%	7.82%	2.92%	1.04%
Houston Texans	58.89%	28.81%	8.97%	2.62%	0.76%
Los Angeles Rams	29.99%	14.99%	5.27%	1.82%	0.69%
Seattle Seahawks	34.84%	17.55%	6.41%	2.05%	0.66%
San Francisco 49ers	56.09%	23.33%	5.98%	1.21%	0.32%
Miami Dolphins	39.93%	14.46%	3.66%	1.09%	0.30%
Arizona Cardinals	24.32%	10.19%	3.24%	0.95%	0.30%
Dallas Cowboys	20.70%	6.99%	1.78%	0.53%	0.15%
Atlanta Falcons	30.51%	10.01%	2.29%	0.54%	0.13%
New Orleans Saints	38.48%	10.99%	2.19%	0.48%	0.09%
Indianapolis Colts	41.21%	14.09%	3.02%	0.55%	0.09%
New York Jets	16.06%	4.10%	0.92%	0.24%	0.05%
Jacksonville Jaguars	21.21%	5.06%	0.78%	0.10%	0.03%
Tennessee Titans	11.21%	2.03%	0.28%	0.03%	0.01%
New England Patriots	6.04%	0.94%	0.11%	0.01%	—
New York Giants	4.97%	0.95%	0.16%	—	—
Cleveland Browns	3.94%	0.70%	0.08%	—	—
Chicago Bears	8.54%	2.35%	0.43%	0.10%	—
Carolina Panthers	2.08%	0.46%	0.08%	0.01%	—
Las Vegas Raiders	6.19%	1.26%	0.20%	0.01%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		3.08%	4.82%	0.60%	4.63%	5.01%	4.17%	2.44%	2.96%	0.98%	5.43%	4.71%	0.99%	2.02%	7.64%	1.25%
Buffalo Bills	3.17%		4.21%	0.81%	4.95%	3.31%	3.37%	2.06%	2.44%	1.02%	5.34%	6.42%	1.32%	2.79%	5.78%	1.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.77%	1.60%		0.15%	1.23%	2.62%	1.88%	1.20%	1.55%	0.25%	1.47%	1.25%	0.26%	0.63%	1.75%	0.52%
Cleveland Browns	0.08%	0.05%	0.04%		0.05%	0.09%	0.07%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%		0.03%	0.06%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.80%	1.97%	1.07%	0.12%		3.78%	2.90%	1.62%	1.71%	0.20%	1.07%	1.33%	0.22%	0.57%	2.65%	0.98%
Houston Texans	1.68%	1.07%	1.98%	0.35%	3.07%		2.23%	1.26%	1.71%	0.58%	3.40%	2.54%	0.38%	1.18%	3.61%	0.71%
Indianapolis Colts	0.85%	0.57%	1.08%	0.19%	1.32%	1.45%		0.54%	0.83%	0.20%	1.72%	1.40%	0.26%	0.46%	1.77%	0.29%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.22%	0.22%	0.42%	0.04%	0.42%	0.42%	0.32%		0.45%	0.11%	0.65%	0.52%	0.10%	0.15%	0.71%	0.12%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.61%	2.12%	3.50%	0.45%	4.30%	4.97%	4.01%	2.25%		0.82%	5.33%	3.98%	0.72%	2.08%	4.70%	1.27%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.12%	0.10%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	0.22%	0.18%	0.06%	0.08%		0.06%	0.06%		0.01%	0.13%	0.08%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.97%	2.11%	1.52%	0.17%	1.29%	4.80%	3.97%	1.93%	2.41%	0.21%		1.98%	0.33%	1.01%	2.96%	1.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.99%	1.48%	0.68%	0.07%	0.66%	2.00%	1.54%	0.79%	0.88%	0.13%	1.27%		0.11%	0.33%	1.53%	0.54%
New England Patriots	0.05%	0.09%	0.04%		0.05%	0.17%	0.08%	0.05%	0.09%		0.04%	0.04%		0.01%	0.15%	0.04%
New York Jets	0.25%	0.45%	0.16%	0.05%	0.21%	0.64%	0.49%	0.25%	0.28%	0.04%	0.20%	0.15%	0.01%		0.44%	0.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.57%	2.05%	1.47%	0.27%	1.95%	3.49%	2.95%	1.79%	1.58%	0.39%	1.90%	2.39%	0.39%	0.92%		1.05%
Tennessee Titans	0.12%	0.18%	0.10%	0.03%	0.20%	0.17%	0.12%	0.07%	0.14%	0.07%	0.28%	0.13%	0.05%	0.07%	0.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.60%	0.02%	0.14%	0.44%	0.48%	0.82%	0.36%	0.76%	0.73%	0.09%	0.60%	1.60%	0.62%	1.04%	0.70%
Atlanta Falcons	0.31%		0.03%	0.31%	0.62%	0.43%	0.63%	0.39%	0.76%	0.92%	0.11%	0.63%	1.37%	0.41%	1.09%	0.63%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.06%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.09%		0.05%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	0.08%	0.14%	0.03%		0.10%	0.09%	0.05%	0.10%	0.05%	0.26%	0.05%	0.12%	0.45%	0.17%	0.40%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	0.35%	0.41%	0.04%	0.16%		0.18%	0.37%	0.48%	0.40%	0.67%	0.08%	0.54%	0.90%	0.39%	0.78%	0.31%
Detroit Lions	2.49%	3.02%	0.26%	0.68%	1.64%		3.03%	2.89%	3.37%	4.09%	0.44%	3.94%	6.25%	3.41%	5.41%	3.36%
Green Bay Packers	1.83%	2.76%	0.24%	0.27%	1.05%	1.43%		2.15%	1.88%	3.22%	0.40%	2.82%	5.32%	2.34%	4.38%	2.43%
Los Angeles Rams	0.52%	0.90%	0.01%	0.44%	0.61%	0.80%	1.32%		1.29%	1.14%	0.15%	1.01%	2.05%	0.70%	1.25%	1.07%
Minnesota Vikings	2.21%	2.72%	0.19%	0.39%	1.54%	1.66%	1.79%	2.34%		3.61%	0.47%	3.07%	5.49%	2.82%	4.39%	2.51%
New Orleans Saints	0.45%	0.64%	0.04%	0.36%	0.45%	0.37%	0.65%	0.41%	0.75%		0.14%	0.54%	1.30%	0.50%	1.21%	0.71%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.12%		0.01%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.09%		0.06%	0.18%	0.09%	0.11%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.47%	3.31%	0.23%	1.11%	3.02%	2.94%	4.86%	2.41%	4.76%	4.39%	0.80%		4.63%	3.12%	3.81%	6.41%
San Francisco 49ers	0.98%	1.37%	0.11%	0.63%	1.19%	0.87%	1.65%	1.16%	1.91%	2.16%	0.30%	0.85%		1.37%	1.07%	1.36%
Seattle Seahawks	0.64%	0.85%	0.07%	0.45%	0.86%	0.88%	1.29%	0.78%	1.42%	1.60%	0.25%	1.04%	2.71%		1.30%	1.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.79%	3.11%	0.16%	1.04%	2.02%	2.08%	3.39%	1.94%	3.87%	4.57%	0.49%	1.92%	3.30%	2.10%		2.98%
Washington Commanders	1.16%	1.91%	0.20%	0.38%	1.02%	1.09%	1.69%	1.29%	1.85%	2.48%	0.31%	2.85%	3.47%	1.58%	2.53%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		8.94%	2.08%	0.06%	3.16%	4.56%	2.21%	0.97%	8.26%	0.23%	3.81%	2.17%	0.16%	0.63%	4.58%	0.42%
Buffalo Bills	8.14%		3.99%	0.18%	4.12%	5.53%	3.14%	1.14%	7.37%	0.21%	5.43%	2.90%	0.24%	0.85%	5.79%	0.46%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.93%	1.64%		0.02%	0.41%	0.67%	0.42%	0.12%	1.49%	0.04%	0.76%	0.41%	0.02%	0.12%	0.74%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.03%							0.01%		0.01%				0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.52%	1.96%	0.48%	0.01%		0.88%	0.46%	0.16%	2.13%	0.01%	0.74%	0.48%	0.03%	0.17%	0.85%	0.04%
Houston Texans	1.21%	1.92%	0.52%	0.04%	0.63%		0.21%	0.09%	1.90%	0.03%	0.78%	0.51%	0.01%	0.12%	0.96%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.44%	0.62%	0.16%	0.02%	0.23%	0.11%		0.02%	0.58%	0.04%	0.28%	0.18%	0.02%	0.02%	0.28%	0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.13%	0.19%	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%			0.15%		0.12%	0.01%			0.14%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.38%	7.40%	3.22%	0.21%	4.77%	5.07%	3.02%	1.15%		0.33%	5.76%	2.84%	0.27%	0.87%	5.11%	0.50%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.02%	0.04%				0.02%	0.02%		0.05%			0.01%	0.01%		0.03%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.93%	2.66%	0.81%	0.05%	0.75%	1.18%	0.68%	0.30%	3.21%	0.08%		0.74%	0.03%	0.24%	1.31%	0.06%
Miami Dolphins	0.48%	0.65%	0.25%	0.01%	0.23%	0.38%	0.20%	0.08%	0.70%	0.01%	0.29%				0.35%	0.03%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%						0.04%		0.01%
New York Jets	0.18%	0.14%	0.05%		0.06%	0.08%	0.03%	0.03%	0.10%		0.09%	0.01%			0.14%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.29%	1.81%	0.55%	0.02%	0.80%	1.33%	0.68%	0.22%	1.89%	0.08%	1.05%	0.52%	0.04%	0.16%		0.14%
Tennessee Titans	0.03%	0.06%			0.02%	0.01%			0.08%		0.04%	0.02%			0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.13%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.28%	0.40%	0.09%	0.44%	0.21%	0.01%	0.55%	0.23%	0.05%	0.48%	0.24%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%			0.01%	0.10%	0.31%	0.21%	0.11%	0.29%	0.08%		0.47%	0.20%	0.09%	0.19%	0.15%
Carolina Panthers		0.01%				0.03%	0.01%				0.01%					0.02%
Chicago Bears					0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.02%	0.08%	0.02%		0.10%	0.03%		0.05%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.05%	0.06%		0.03%		0.25%	0.23%	0.06%	0.24%	0.13%	0.01%	0.25%	0.17%	0.06%	0.19%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	1.63%	1.95%	0.10%	0.40%	1.38%		7.28%	2.36%	8.46%	2.01%	0.22%	6.70%	3.86%	3.23%	6.27%	4.25%
Green Bay Packers	0.62%	0.97%	0.03%	0.14%	0.74%	3.72%		0.94%	3.39%	1.11%	0.09%	3.11%	1.70%	1.19%	2.46%	1.85%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	0.24%	0.01%	0.05%	0.15%	0.86%	0.52%		0.67%	0.23%	0.01%	0.93%	0.39%	0.11%	0.53%	0.50%
Minnesota Vikings	1.01%	0.95%	0.07%	0.36%	0.73%	4.10%	3.82%	1.30%		1.17%	0.14%	3.34%	2.52%	1.37%	2.95%	2.16%
New Orleans Saints	0.13%	0.05%		0.02%	0.07%	0.19%	0.19%	0.13%	0.26%			0.44%	0.28%	0.11%	0.18%	0.14%
New York Giants		0.01%				0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%		0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.72%	1.83%	0.08%	0.52%	1.04%	5.71%	4.68%	2.66%	5.54%	1.73%	0.11%		3.88%	2.64%	7.10%	3.31%
San Francisco 49ers	0.16%	0.26%	0.02%	0.06%	0.13%	0.77%	0.52%	0.24%	0.72%	0.49%	0.04%	0.88%		0.30%	0.88%	0.51%
Seattle Seahawks	0.20%	0.27%	0.01%	0.06%	0.16%	0.87%	0.65%	0.19%	0.79%	0.43%	0.03%	0.97%	0.47%		0.86%	0.45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.83%	0.59%	0.02%	0.19%	0.46%	2.43%	2.21%	0.94%	2.44%	0.68%	0.09%	3.67%	2.27%	1.34%		1.73%
Washington Commanders	0.45%	0.40%	0.02%	0.04%	0.16%	1.59%	1.31%	0.67%	1.29%	0.49%	0.03%	1.52%	1.34%	0.64%	1.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		7.53%	1.19%		1.70%	1.44%	0.68%	0.13%	7.48%	0.06%	2.19%	0.56%	0.03%	0.14%	1.61%	0.07%
Buffalo Bills	6.73%		1.42%	0.03%	1.86%	1.90%	0.67%	0.22%	9.08%	0.04%	2.86%	0.66%	0.04%	0.12%	2.39%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.45%	0.60%			0.22%	0.17%	0.08%	0.02%	0.79%		0.33%	0.13%		0.01%	0.11%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.68%	0.99%	0.14%			0.31%	0.08%	0.02%	0.91%		0.21%	0.13%		0.04%	0.31%
Houston Texans	0.62%	0.72%	0.08%		0.10%		0.02%	0.02%	0.60%	0.01%	0.21%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.14%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.13%	0.08%	0.04%		0.06%	0.04%			0.10%		0.03%	0.04%			0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%						0.03%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.85%	8.86%	1.44%	0.04%	1.58%	1.78%	0.68%	0.21%		0.04%	2.06%	0.74%	0.01%	0.29%	2.16%	0.06%
Las Vegas Raiders		0.01%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.18%	1.60%	0.36%	0.01%	0.29%	0.41%	0.13%	0.05%	1.05%			0.10%		0.04%	0.47%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.24%	0.18%	0.08%		0.06%	0.05%	0.03%		0.18%		0.15%			0.01%	0.10%	0.01%
New England Patriots					0.01%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%		0.02%		0.01%		0.09%		0.01%	0.01%			0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.52%	0.77%	0.12%		0.18%	0.25%	0.09%	0.01%	0.79%	0.04%	0.27%	0.13%	0.01%	0.02%		0.01%
Tennessee Titans					0.02%										0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals				0.01%	0.01%	0.20%	0.15%	0.03%	0.12%		0.01%	0.15%	0.05%	0.02%	0.11%	0.09%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%				0.01%	0.16%	0.04%	0.02%	0.10%	0.02%		0.06%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers																0.01%
Chicago Bears		0.01%							0.02%			0.04%		0.01%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.01%	0.02%				0.09%	0.07%	0.01%	0.12%	0.02%		0.07%		0.02%	0.07%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	0.86%	0.57%	0.01%	0.08%	0.52%		4.27%	1.29%	4.84%	0.76%	0.05%	9.04%	1.68%	1.54%	4.97%	2.82%
Green Bay Packers	0.25%	0.24%	0.01%	0.05%	0.14%	2.18%		0.23%	1.34%	0.14%	0.02%	2.33%	0.50%	0.40%	1.36%	0.88%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%	0.08%		0.01%	0.05%	0.48%	0.23%		0.24%	0.03%	0.01%	0.26%	0.07%	0.05%	0.17%	0.13%
Minnesota Vikings	0.28%	0.18%	0.01%	0.03%	0.10%	2.76%	1.43%	0.48%		0.25%	0.02%	3.24%	0.68%	0.50%	1.65%	0.88%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%					0.05%	0.08%	0.02%	0.13%			0.07%	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.55%	0.39%	0.04%	0.13%	0.23%	7.25%	3.45%	0.80%	4.22%	0.23%	0.02%		1.16%	1.18%	2.93%	1.38%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.02%			0.02%	0.28%	0.13%	0.03%	0.18%	0.03%		0.25%		0.04%	0.09%	0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	0.04%	0.07%			0.02%	0.44%	0.28%	0.06%	0.28%	0.04%		0.46%	0.05%		0.12%	0.19%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.17%	0.10%		0.01%	0.09%	1.82%	1.21%	0.34%	1.10%	0.11%	0.03%	1.74%	0.44%	0.33%		0.44%
Washington Commanders	0.06%	0.07%		0.01%	0.06%	1.09%	0.65%	0.14%	0.81%	0.08%		0.88%	0.11%	0.18%	0.42%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals			0.03%	0.10%			0.01%		0.01%						0.10%		0.02%		0.01%						0.02%
Atlanta Falcons			0.04%	0.03%											0.04%		0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	0.14%	0.13%				0.02%		0.08%		3.52%	1.63%							0.28%		2.00%		0.15%		3.08%		0.19%	0.30%	1.36%		0.78%
Buffalo Bills	0.20%	0.08%				0.03%		0.12%		4.03%	1.67%							0.32%		1.95%		0.17%		3.13%		0.26%	0.47%	1.34%		0.87%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%									0.28%	0.11%							0.03%		0.12%		0.01%		0.20%		0.03%	0.05%	0.14%		0.06%
Dallas Cowboys			0.03%	0.03%								0.04%			0.04%										0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.03%	0.03%				0.01%		0.02%		0.44%	0.18%							0.01%		0.22%				0.33%		0.05%	0.04%	0.10%		0.10%
Detroit Lions			4.52%	5.41%			0.69%		0.79%			0.63%	0.13%	0.01%	5.29%	0.01%	1.23%		0.37%				0.08%		0.74%
Green Bay Packers			0.92%	1.12%			0.16%		0.25%			0.18%	0.07%	0.02%	1.18%		0.37%		0.09%				0.03%		0.22%
Houston Texans		0.01%						0.01%		0.19%	0.10%							0.04%		0.10%		0.01%		0.12%		0.03%	0.05%	0.06%		0.04%
Indianapolis Colts										0.02%	0.01%									0.01%				0.03%				0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars																								0.02%				0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.22%	0.11%				0.02%		0.13%		3.94%	1.41%							0.32%		1.72%		0.05%		3.20%		0.23%	0.34%	1.39%		0.64%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.02%	0.03%				0.01%		0.01%		0.60%	0.25%							0.08%		0.27%				0.56%		0.07%	0.09%	0.20%		0.14%
Los Angeles Rams			0.14%	0.19%			0.04%		0.05%			0.01%			0.20%		0.04%								0.02%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%				0.01%					0.09%								0.02%		0.04%				0.09%				0.01%		0.03%
Minnesota Vikings			1.31%	1.43%			0.17%		0.37%			0.26%	0.09%	0.02%	1.44%		0.42%		0.08%				0.01%		0.27%				0.01%
New Orleans Saints			0.02%	0.01%			0.01%								0.03%		0.01%								0.01%
New York Jets		0.01%								0.01%										0.01%				0.01%				0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			2.93%	3.44%			0.53%		0.52%			0.45%	0.08%	0.01%	3.39%		0.84%		0.17%				0.06%		0.51%				0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.01%				0.01%				0.28%	0.10%							0.03%		0.17%				0.25%		0.03%	0.05%	0.12%		0.05%
San Francisco 49ers			0.04%	0.09%			0.02%		0.03%			0.02%	0.01%		0.08%		0.01%								0.02%
Seattle Seahawks			0.07%	0.15%			0.03%		0.02%				0.02%		0.19%		0.12%								0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.71%	0.88%			0.15%		0.14%			0.20%	0.05%	0.01%	0.64%		0.19%		0.04%		0.01%		0.01%		0.14%
Tennessee Titans								0.01%
Washington Commanders			0.39%	0.57%			0.07%		0.08%			0.07%	0.01%		0.46%		0.10%		0.03%						0.07%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Detroit Lions	100.00%	69.48%	44.43%	25.81%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	68.78%	35.41%	16.70%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens	77.29%	42.66%	24.92%	12.89%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	71.52%	40.37%	22.79%	11.57%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	62.00%	41.32%	20.42%	10.91%	Won Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	62.78%	27.36%	11.11%	5.23%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	38.00%	13.15%	7.32%	3.60%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	54.68%	22.11%	7.91%	3.27%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Chargers	58.58%	20.41%	7.43%	2.92%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Washington Commanders	45.32%	15.21%	5.51%	2.37%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	28.48%	9.68%	4.09%	1.62%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	37.22%	11.37%	3.30%	1.24%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Houston Texans	41.42%	10.56%	2.88%	1.00%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.71%	7.54%	2.48%	0.87%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens						77.29%
Buffalo Bills			71.52%
Denver Broncos		28.48%
Houston Texans					41.42%
Los Angeles Chargers				58.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Green Bay Packers				38.00%
Los Angeles Rams			37.22%
Minnesota Vikings		62.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	62.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers						54.68%
Washington Commanders					45.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		26.43%		7.09%		9.14%
Buffalo Bills	28.58%			5.11%		6.68%
Denver Broncos					9.68%
Houston Texans	1.89%	1.53%			6.03%		1.11%
Kansas City Chiefs			18.80%	17.39%		20.78%	11.81%
Los Angeles Chargers	4.16%	3.19%			10.81%		2.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers				1.27%	4.70%	1.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Detroit Lions		24.85%	9.86%	14.02%			20.75%
Green Bay Packers	13.15%
Los Angeles Rams	2.77%				2.80%	2.95%	2.85%
Minnesota Vikings	6.95%				6.75%	7.15%	6.51%
Philadelphia Eagles			7.83%	11.02%		22.47%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			4.77%	6.21%	11.13%
Washington Commanders	7.65%		3.39%	4.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens			3.61%	2.29%	15.33%	3.69%
Buffalo Bills				2.27%	14.48%	3.66%	2.38%
Denver Broncos	1.87%			0.64%		1.06%	0.52%
Houston Texans	0.66%	0.81%	0.39%		0.76%		0.26%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.55%	14.03%		2.26%		4.19%	1.38%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.66%	1.80%	1.18%		2.27%		0.52%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.94%	0.41%	0.22%	0.53%	0.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Detroit Lions			4.47%	9.08%	16.91%	10.64%	3.33%
Green Bay Packers			1.11%	2.50%		2.09%	1.62%
Los Angeles Rams	1.53%	0.79%			0.43%	0.31%	0.24%
Minnesota Vikings	4.93%	2.17%			1.87%	1.16%	0.98%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.62%		1.40%	2.87%			3.53%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.52%	1.71%	0.63%	1.05%
Washington Commanders	1.45%	1.16%	0.46%	0.75%	1.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Baltimore Ravens				5.35%	0.89%				0.63%	1.46%	2.63%		1.16%	0.77%
Buffalo Bills				4.45%	0.81%				0.43%	1.50%	2.37%		1.11%	0.90%
Denver Broncos				0.73%	0.11%				0.09%	0.15%	0.29%		0.15%	0.10%
Detroit Lions	6.07%	5.49%	1.16%			0.91%	9.34%	2.05%				0.79%
Green Bay Packers	0.91%	0.76%	0.19%			0.10%	1.11%	0.41%				0.12%
Houston Texans				0.40%	0.10%				0.02%	0.10%	0.15%		0.15%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs				6.33%	1.48%				0.67%	2.11%	3.39%		1.66%	1.06%
Los Angeles Chargers				0.99%	0.28%				0.14%	0.39%	0.53%		0.37%	0.22%
Los Angeles Rams	0.23%	0.30%	0.06%			0.04%	0.49%	0.09%				0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	1.28%	1.01%	0.26%			0.24%	1.91%	0.39%				0.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.37%	2.41%	0.49%			0.37%	3.95%	0.97%				0.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers				0.37%	0.05%				0.08%	0.17%	0.15%		0.04%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.61%	0.73%	0.22%			0.16%	1.13%	0.32%				0.10%
Washington Commanders	0.56%	0.52%	0.09%			0.06%	0.78%	0.28%				0.08%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Detroit Lions 25.81% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

35.77%

Win Prob

65.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

38.06%

Win Prob

57.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.19%

Win Prob

59.60%

Kansas City Chiefs 16.70% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

30.21%

Win Prob

65.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

39.62%

Win Prob

49.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

37.90%

Win Prob

40.40%

Baltimore Ravens 12.89% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

77.29%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

61.95%

Win Prob

48.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

61.52%

Win Prob

53.08%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

41.51%

Win Prob

46.85%

Buffalo Bills 11.57% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.52%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

70.80%

Win Prob

51.95%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

63.54%

Win Prob

50.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

38.46%

Win Prob

44.77%

Philadelphia Eagles 10.91% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

54.38%

Win Prob

66.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

61.80%

Win Prob

42.74%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.21%

Win Prob

53.81%

Minnesota Vikings 5.23% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.78%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

26.13%

Win Prob

53.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

44.37%

Win Prob

35.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.52%

Win Prob

47.51%

Green Bay Packers 3.60% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

34.15%

Win Prob

53.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

30.83%

Win Prob

42.86%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.27% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Commanders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.68%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

50.34%

Win Prob

33.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

57.14%

Win Prob

29.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.56%

Win Prob

40.50%

Los Angeles Chargers 2.92% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.58%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

52.96%

Win Prob

34.22%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

30.55%

Win Prob

35.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

33.90%

Win Prob

32.57%

Washington Commanders 2.37% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.32%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

50.30%

Win Prob

26.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

30.67%

Win Prob

32.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

32.91%

Win Prob

42.39%

Denver Broncos 1.62% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.48%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

45.72%

Win Prob

34.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

45.06%

Win Prob

38.62%

Los Angeles Rams 1.24% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.22%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

25.95%

Win Prob

38.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

46.36%

Win Prob

25.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

39.52%

Win Prob

42.24%

Houston Texans 1.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.42%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

57.10%

Win Prob

25.75%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

28.12%

Win Prob

26.30%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

40.00%

Win Prob

30.53%

Pittsburgh Steelers 0.87% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.71%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

62.33%

Win Prob

28.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

37.90%

Win Prob

28.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

42.53%

Win Prob

31.90%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2024-09-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-34	1454.35	1566.59	31.64%	68.12%	-13.64	0-1
2024-09-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 41-10	1440.71	1485.34	46.45%	53.31%	+52.20	1-1
2024-09-22	Detroit Lions	L 13-20	1492.91	1529.07	47.66%	52.09%	-22.19	1-2
2024-09-29	Washington Commanders	L 14-42	1470.72	1450.97	55.68%	44.07%	-51.82	1-3
2024-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-23	1418.90	1578.58	26.04%	73.71%	+12.96	2-3
2024-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-34	1431.86	1554.70	30.33%	69.42%	-24.47	2-4
2024-10-21	Los Angeles Chargers	W 17-15	1407.39	1519.60	37.02%	62.73%	+15.60	3-4
2024-10-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 28-27	1422.99	1416.36	47.84%	51.91%	+9.13	4-4
2024-11-03	Chicago Bears	W 29-9	1432.12	1526.24	39.48%	60.27%	+47.41	5-4
2024-11-10	New York Jets	W 31-6	1479.53	1459.14	55.77%	43.98%	+38.70	6-4
2024-11-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-16	1518.23	1482.27	52.06%	47.69%	-28.96	6-5
2024-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-23	1489.27	1620.47	29.32%	70.43%	-5.17	6-6
2024-12-08	Seattle Seahawks	L 18-30	1484.10	1526.49	46.77%	52.99%	-28.51	6-7
2024-12-15	New England Patriots	W 30-17	1455.59	1336.14	69.01%	30.75%	+19.53	7-7
2024-12-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 30-36	1475.12	1279.35	73.10%	26.65%	-31.49	7-8
2024-12-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-13	1443.63	1549.67	32.41%	67.34%	-11.42	7-9
2025-01-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 47-24	1432.21	1470.83	47.31%	52.44%	+44.25	8-9
2024-09-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-18	1465.39	1500.38	47.83%	51.92%	-23.81	0-1
2024-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-21	1441.58	1527.39	35.02%	64.74%	+11.39	1-1
2024-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-22	1452.97	1591.51	33.56%	66.19%	-13.21	1-2
2024-09-29	New Orleans Saints	W 26-24	1439.76	1581.19	33.19%	66.56%	+16.55	2-2
2024-10-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 36-30	1456.31	1542.49	40.58%	59.18%	+25.49	3-2
2024-10-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 38-20	1481.80	1353.08	64.92%	34.83%	+26.02	4-2
2024-10-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-34	1507.82	1470.14	58.21%	41.55%	-45.78	4-3
2024-10-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-26	1462.04	1541.30	35.88%	63.88%	+25.12	5-3
2024-11-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-21	1487.16	1478.76	54.06%	45.69%	+19.69	6-3
2024-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1506.85	1408.10	60.91%	38.85%	-18.55	6-4
2024-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-38	1488.30	1516.33	42.90%	56.85%	-42.71	6-5
2024-12-01	Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-17	1445.59	1570.36	35.35%	64.40%	-12.45	6-6
2024-12-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-42	1433.14	1625.63	22.57%	77.18%	-18.23	6-7
2024-12-16	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 15-9	1414.91	1298.30	63.32%	36.43%	+15.72	7-7
2024-12-22	New York Giants	W 34-7	1430.63	1288.98	71.66%	28.09%	+25.71	8-7
2024-12-29	@ Washington Commanders	L 24-30	1456.34	1559.96	32.72%	67.04%	-14.12	8-8
2025-01-05	Carolina Panthers	L 38-44	1442.22	1294.15	72.40%	27.35%	-31.18	8-9
2024-09-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1579.05	1562.72	49.24%	50.52%	-22.92	0-1
2024-09-15	Las Vegas Raiders	L 23-26	1556.13	1466.71	65.21%	34.54%	-19.86	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-25	1536.27	1528.47	48.01%	51.74%	+15.76	1-2
2024-09-29	Buffalo Bills	W 35-10	1552.03	1645.43	39.58%	60.17%	+52.92	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-38	1604.95	1482.88	64.05%	35.71%	+10.89	3-2
2024-10-13	Washington Commanders	W 30-23	1615.84	1534.03	64.22%	35.54%	+16.55	4-2
2024-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-31	1632.39	1565.38	56.49%	43.26%	+24.08	5-2
2024-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns	L 24-29	1656.47	1383.01	80.90%	18.85%	-31.82	5-3
2024-11-03	Denver Broncos	W 41-10	1624.65	1559.58	61.98%	37.78%	+37.03	6-3
2024-11-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-34	1661.68	1503.65	73.53%	26.23%	+4.62	7-3
2024-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-18	1666.30	1611.45	54.77%	44.99%	-13.62	7-4
2024-11-25	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 30-23	1652.68	1590.85	55.76%	44.00%	+20.48	8-4
2024-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-24	1673.16	1668.05	53.59%	46.16%	-21.08	8-5
2024-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 35-14	1652.08	1299.35	86.92%	12.83%	+10.37	9-5
2024-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-17	1662.45	1596.92	62.04%	37.72%	+27.37	10-5
2024-12-25	@ Houston Texans	W 31-2	1689.82	1533.51	68.43%	31.32%	+29.70	11-5
2025-01-04	Cleveland Browns	W 35-10	1719.52	1310.82	92.01%	7.75%	+6.83	12-5
2024-09-08	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-28	1566.59	1454.35	68.12%	31.64%	+13.64	1-0
2024-09-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-10	1580.23	1531.67	53.87%	45.89%	+37.00	2-0
2024-09-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 47-10	1617.23	1460.00	73.44%	26.32%	+28.20	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-35	1645.43	1552.03	60.17%	39.58%	-52.92	3-1
2024-10-06	@ Houston Texans	L 20-23	1592.51	1504.98	59.36%	40.39%	-18.08	3-2
2024-10-14	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1574.43	1487.35	59.30%	40.45%	+12.33	4-2
2024-10-20	Tennessee Titans	W 34-10	1586.76	1427.02	73.72%	26.04%	+22.47	5-2
2024-10-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-10	1609.23	1515.92	60.16%	39.59%	+31.94	6-2
2024-11-03	Miami Dolphins	W 30-27	1641.17	1407.22	81.08%	18.68%	+5.70	7-2
2024-11-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-20	1646.87	1471.15	70.79%	28.97%	+16.13	8-2
2024-11-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-21	1663.00	1698.01	47.83%	51.93%	+27.40	9-2
2024-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-10	1690.40	1531.17	73.66%	26.09%	+22.98	10-2
2024-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 42-44	1713.38	1486.10	76.50%	23.26%	-19.02	10-3
2024-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 48-42	1694.36	1745.55	39.67%	60.08%	+25.88	11-3
2024-12-22	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1720.24	1316.62	91.80%	7.96%	+2.43	12-3
2024-12-29	New York Jets	W 40-14	1722.67	1386.57	88.44%	11.31%	+10.17	13-3
2025-01-05	@ New England Patriots	L 16-23	1732.84	1291.84	91.62%	8.14%	-14.21	13-4
2024-09-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-47	1432.23	1512.70	35.72%	64.04%	-38.25	0-1
2024-09-15	Los Angeles Chargers	L 3-26	1393.98	1504.79	37.21%	62.55%	-31.41	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 36-22	1362.57	1486.57	30.19%	69.57%	+45.77	1-2
2024-09-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-34	1408.34	1457.38	45.82%	53.94%	-25.50	1-3
2024-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-36	1382.84	1483.03	33.16%	66.60%	-29.76	1-4
2024-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-38	1353.08	1481.80	34.83%	64.92%	-26.02	1-5
2024-10-20	@ Washington Commanders	L 7-40	1327.06	1517.47	22.78%	76.97%	-23.06	1-6
2024-10-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-28	1304.00	1547.82	17.83%	81.93%	-11.75	1-7
2024-11-03	New Orleans Saints	W 23-22	1292.25	1419.49	35.03%	64.73%	+11.38	2-7
2024-11-10	New York Giants	W 20-17	1303.63	1370.93	43.22%	56.53%	+17.22	3-7
2024-11-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-30	1320.85	1670.61	13.03%	86.73%	-3.97	3-8
2024-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-26	1316.88	1520.76	25.75%	74.01%	-7.86	3-9
2024-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-22	1309.02	1689.13	9.01%	90.75%	-3.89	3-10
2024-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-30	1305.13	1420.37	36.62%	63.14%	-25.78	3-11
2024-12-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 36-30	1279.35	1475.12	26.65%	73.10%	+31.48	4-11
2024-12-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-48	1310.83	1574.20	16.24%	83.52%	-16.68	4-12
2025-01-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-38	1294.15	1442.22	27.35%	72.40%	+31.19	5-12
2024-09-08	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1482.93	1466.16	55.26%	44.50%	+20.72	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Houston Texans	L 13-19	1503.65	1511.40	45.78%	53.97%	-19.73	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-21	1483.92	1447.75	52.09%	47.66%	-20.50	1-2
2024-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-18	1463.42	1453.52	54.28%	45.48%	+19.61	2-2
2024-10-06	Carolina Panthers	W 36-10	1483.03	1382.84	66.60%	33.16%	+29.76	3-2
2024-10-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-16	1512.79	1435.52	63.61%	36.14%	+27.74	4-2
2024-10-27	@ Washington Commanders	L 15-18	1540.53	1540.53	46.89%	52.86%	-14.29	4-3
2024-11-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 9-29	1526.24	1432.12	60.27%	39.48%	-47.41	4-4
2024-11-10	New England Patriots	L 3-19	1478.83	1336.88	71.70%	28.06%	-50.43	4-5
2024-11-17	Green Bay Packers	L 19-20	1428.40	1575.34	32.49%	67.26%	-5.73	4-6
2024-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 27-30	1422.67	1612.12	27.37%	72.38%	-8.35	4-7
2024-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1414.32	1731.37	12.46%	87.30%	-3.80	4-8
2024-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-38	1410.52	1508.19	33.48%	66.28%	-29.47	4-9
2024-12-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 12-30	1381.05	1643.86	16.28%	83.47%	-12.18	4-10
2024-12-22	Detroit Lions	L 17-34	1368.87	1719.67	12.96%	86.80%	-9.41	4-11
2024-12-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-6	1359.46	1514.06	31.53%	68.22%	-9.62	4-12
2025-01-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-22	1349.84	1669.88	12.27%	87.48%	+21.76	5-12
2024-09-08	New England Patriots	L 10-16	1513.58	1451.10	61.63%	38.13%	-26.55	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 25-26	1487.03	1585.64	33.36%	66.40%	-5.87	0-2
2024-09-23	Washington Commanders	L 33-38	1481.16	1427.19	60.47%	39.29%	-23.78	0-3
2024-09-29	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-24	1457.38	1408.34	53.94%	45.82%	+25.50	1-3
2024-10-06	Baltimore Ravens	L 38-41	1482.88	1604.95	35.71%	64.05%	-10.89	1-4
2024-10-13	@ New York Giants	W 17-7	1471.99	1458.07	48.89%	50.86%	+28.29	2-4
2024-10-20	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-14	1500.28	1401.07	60.97%	38.78%	+18.07	3-4
2024-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-37	1518.35	1547.20	48.71%	51.04%	-38.33	3-5
2024-11-03	Las Vegas Raiders	W 41-24	1480.02	1375.08	67.20%	32.55%	+23.63	4-5
2024-11-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 34-35	1503.65	1661.68	26.23%	73.53%	-4.62	4-6
2024-11-17	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 27-34	1499.03	1573.86	36.47%	63.29%	-16.99	4-7
2024-12-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 38-44	1482.04	1593.38	37.14%	62.62%	-16.01	4-8
2024-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-20	1466.03	1443.47	50.14%	49.62%	+23.10	5-8
2024-12-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 37-27	1489.13	1353.51	65.82%	33.94%	+18.89	6-8
2024-12-22	Cleveland Browns	W 24-6	1508.02	1352.82	73.21%	26.54%	+19.84	7-8
2024-12-28	Denver Broncos	W 30-24	1527.86	1578.99	45.52%	54.24%	+23.37	8-8
2025-01-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-17	1551.23	1543.87	47.95%	51.81%	+12.89	9-8
2024-09-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-33	1500.84	1545.72	46.41%	53.34%	-32.67	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 18-13	1468.17	1481.54	44.98%	54.77%	+21.54	1-1
2024-09-22	New York Giants	L 15-21	1489.71	1411.48	63.74%	36.01%	-27.45	1-2
2024-09-29	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 16-20	1462.26	1440.80	49.98%	49.78%	-17.59	1-3
2024-10-06	@ Washington Commanders	L 13-34	1444.67	1502.79	38.72%	61.03%	-31.23	1-4
2024-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-20	1413.44	1498.50	35.11%	64.64%	-12.37	1-5
2024-10-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1401.07	1500.28	38.78%	60.97%	-18.06	1-6
2024-10-27	Baltimore Ravens	W 29-24	1383.01	1656.47	18.85%	80.90%	+31.82	2-6
2024-11-03	Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-27	1414.83	1533.20	36.20%	63.56%	-26.28	2-7
2024-11-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-35	1388.55	1426.66	41.49%	58.27%	-33.46	2-8
2024-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-19	1355.09	1625.07	19.16%	80.59%	+31.69	3-8
2024-12-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 32-41	1386.78	1571.74	23.34%	76.42%	-12.33	3-9
2024-12-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1374.45	1609.40	18.59%	81.17%	-11.81	3-10
2024-12-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-21	1362.64	1685.52	14.88%	84.88%	-9.82	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-24	1352.82	1508.02	26.54%	73.21%	-19.83	3-12
2024-12-29	Miami Dolphins	L 3-20	1332.99	1495.75	30.53%	69.23%	-22.17	3-13
2025-01-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-35	1310.82	1719.52	7.75%	92.01%	-6.83	3-14
2024-09-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 33-17	1545.72	1500.84	53.34%	46.41%	+32.67	1-0
2024-09-15	New Orleans Saints	L 19-44	1578.39	1550.95	56.77%	42.99%	-49.92	1-1
2024-09-22	Baltimore Ravens	L 25-28	1528.47	1536.27	51.74%	48.01%	-15.77	1-2
2024-09-26	@ New York Giants	W 20-15	1512.70	1438.94	57.44%	42.31%	+16.65	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1529.35	1551.36	43.75%	56.00%	+17.06	3-2
2024-10-13	Detroit Lions	L 9-47	1546.41	1582.07	47.74%	52.02%	-51.77	3-3
2024-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-30	1494.64	1566.84	36.82%	62.94%	-15.88	3-4
2024-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1478.76	1487.16	45.69%	54.06%	-19.69	3-5
2024-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-34	1459.07	1595.81	33.79%	65.96%	-31.49	3-6
2024-11-18	Houston Texans	L 10-34	1427.58	1510.56	41.02%	58.73%	-35.37	3-7
2024-11-24	@ Washington Commanders	W 34-26	1392.21	1539.49	27.44%	72.31%	+35.97	4-7
2024-11-28	New York Giants	W 27-20	1428.18	1325.39	66.93%	32.82%	+15.29	5-7
2024-12-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-27	1443.47	1466.03	49.62%	50.14%	-23.10	5-8
2024-12-15	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-14	1420.37	1305.13	63.14%	36.62%	+25.79	6-8
2024-12-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-24	1446.16	1590.85	32.78%	66.98%	+16.65	7-8
2024-12-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-41	1462.81	1695.63	18.78%	80.98%	-19.29	7-9
2025-01-05	Washington Commanders	L 19-23	1443.52	1574.07	34.60%	65.16%	-12.18	7-10
2024-09-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-26	1480.88	1495.19	44.85%	54.91%	-19.33	0-1
2024-09-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-13	1461.55	1524.19	43.88%	55.87%	-20.43	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-7	1441.12	1557.96	31.07%	68.69%	+52.65	1-2
2024-09-29	@ New York Jets	W 10-9	1493.77	1511.09	44.42%	55.34%	+9.73	2-2
2024-10-06	Las Vegas Raiders	W 34-18	1503.50	1458.39	59.24%	40.51%	+28.53	3-2
2024-10-13	Los Angeles Chargers	L 16-23	1532.03	1492.39	58.48%	41.27%	-27.22	3-3
2024-10-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-10	1504.81	1491.70	48.78%	50.98%	+43.01	4-3
2024-10-27	Carolina Panthers	W 28-14	1547.82	1304.00	81.93%	17.83%	+11.76	5-3
2024-11-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-41	1559.58	1624.65	37.78%	61.98%	-37.03	5-4
2024-11-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1522.55	1691.78	25.00%	74.76%	-6.22	5-5
2024-11-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-6	1516.33	1488.30	56.85%	42.90%	+42.71	6-5
2024-11-24	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 29-19	1559.04	1327.32	76.95%	22.81%	+12.70	7-5
2024-12-02	Cleveland Browns	W 41-32	1571.74	1386.78	76.42%	23.34%	+12.34	8-5
2024-12-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-13	1584.08	1454.60	70.23%	29.53%	+22.06	9-5
2024-12-19	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 27-34	1606.14	1525.95	58.34%	41.41%	-27.15	9-6
2024-12-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-30	1578.99	1527.86	54.24%	45.52%	-23.37	9-7
2025-01-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-0	1555.62	1734.63	28.58%	71.17%	+25.72	10-7
2024-09-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 26-20	1529.49	1503.99	56.50%	43.26%	+18.65	1-0
2024-09-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-20	1548.14	1538.90	54.19%	45.57%	-19.07	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-13	1529.07	1492.91	52.09%	47.66%	+22.19	2-1
2024-09-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 42-29	1551.26	1562.90	51.19%	48.56%	+30.81	3-1
2024-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 47-9	1582.07	1546.41	52.02%	47.74%	+51.78	4-1
2024-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-29	1633.85	1620.78	48.77%	50.99%	+12.68	5-1
2024-10-27	Tennessee Titans	W 52-14	1646.53	1404.55	81.77%	17.98%	+19.54	6-1
2024-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1666.07	1599.45	56.44%	43.32%	+24.10	7-1
2024-11-10	@ Houston Texans	W 26-23	1690.17	1519.59	70.17%	29.58%	+9.03	8-1
2024-11-17	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 52-6	1699.20	1404.35	85.83%	13.92%	+16.64	9-1
2024-11-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-6	1715.84	1463.44	78.98%	20.78%	+15.53	10-1
2024-11-28	Chicago Bears	W 23-20	1731.37	1414.32	87.30%	12.46%	+3.81	11-1
2024-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 34-31	1735.18	1641.83	65.72%	34.03%	+10.37	12-1
2024-12-15	Buffalo Bills	L 42-48	1745.55	1694.36	60.08%	39.67%	-25.88	12-2
2024-12-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-17	1719.67	1368.87	86.80%	12.96%	+9.42	13-2
2024-12-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-34	1729.09	1479.94	78.67%	21.09%	+9.10	14-2
2025-01-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-9	1738.19	1678.77	61.21%	38.54%	+31.82	15-2
2024-09-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 29-34	1526.26	1507.90	49.53%	50.23%	-19.48	0-1
2024-09-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-10	1506.78	1465.44	58.72%	41.04%	+17.69	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Tennessee Titans	W 30-14	1524.47	1421.17	61.53%	38.23%	+26.91	2-1
2024-09-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 29-31	1551.38	1595.18	46.57%	53.19%	-11.58	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-19	1539.80	1433.92	61.88%	37.88%	+14.90	3-2
2024-10-13	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-13	1554.70	1431.86	69.42%	30.33%	+24.48	4-2
2024-10-20	Houston Texans	W 24-22	1579.18	1549.54	57.08%	42.68%	+10.62	5-2
2024-10-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-27	1589.80	1435.91	68.13%	31.62%	+9.65	6-2
2024-11-03	Detroit Lions	L 14-24	1599.45	1666.07	43.32%	56.44%	-24.11	6-3
2024-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-19	1575.34	1428.40	67.26%	32.49%	+5.72	7-3
2024-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 38-10	1581.06	1573.87	53.89%	45.86%	+42.70	8-3
2024-11-28	Miami Dolphins	W 30-17	1623.76	1485.12	71.31%	28.44%	+18.07	9-3
2024-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 31-34	1641.83	1735.18	34.03%	65.72%	-10.38	9-4
2024-12-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-13	1631.45	1555.00	57.82%	41.94%	+30.43	10-4
2024-12-23	New Orleans Saints	W 34-0	1661.88	1439.19	80.08%	19.68%	+20.22	11-4
2024-12-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 25-27	1682.10	1666.55	49.13%	50.63%	-12.22	11-5
2025-01-05	Chicago Bears	L 22-24	1669.88	1349.84	87.48%	12.27%	-21.76	11-6
2024-09-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-27	1499.01	1477.84	49.93%	49.82%	+12.39	1-0
2024-09-15	Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1511.40	1503.65	53.97%	45.78%	+19.73	2-0
2024-09-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-34	1531.13	1555.47	43.43%	56.33%	-39.71	2-1
2024-09-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1491.42	1431.80	61.24%	38.52%	+13.56	3-1
2024-10-06	Buffalo Bills	W 23-20	1504.98	1592.51	40.39%	59.36%	+18.09	4-1
2024-10-13	@ New England Patriots	W 41-21	1523.07	1384.96	66.14%	33.62%	+26.47	5-1
2024-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 22-24	1549.54	1579.18	42.68%	57.08%	-10.62	5-2
2024-10-27	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1538.92	1501.65	58.15%	41.61%	+12.68	6-2
2024-10-31	@ New York Jets	L 13-21	1551.60	1427.13	64.36%	35.39%	-32.01	6-3
2024-11-10	Detroit Lions	L 23-26	1519.59	1690.17	29.58%	70.17%	-9.03	6-4
2024-11-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-10	1510.56	1427.58	58.73%	41.02%	+35.38	7-4
2024-11-24	Tennessee Titans	L 27-32	1545.94	1369.73	75.50%	24.25%	-29.69	7-5
2024-12-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-20	1516.25	1387.71	64.90%	34.86%	+10.63	8-5
2024-12-15	Miami Dolphins	W 20-12	1526.88	1483.04	59.07%	40.69%	+20.25	9-5
2024-12-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-27	1547.13	1695.33	27.34%	72.42%	-13.62	9-6
2024-12-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 2-31	1533.51	1689.82	31.32%	68.43%	-29.70	9-7
2025-01-05	@ Tennessee Titans	W 23-14	1503.81	1298.01	74.22%	25.54%	+4.50	10-7
2024-09-08	Houston Texans	L 27-29	1477.84	1499.01	49.82%	49.93%	-12.40	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-16	1465.44	1506.78	41.04%	58.72%	-17.69	0-2
2024-09-22	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1447.75	1483.92	47.66%	52.09%	+20.49	1-2
2024-09-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1468.24	1570.04	38.43%	61.33%	+18.68	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 34-37	1486.92	1418.24	56.73%	43.03%	-17.28	2-3
2024-10-13	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-17	1469.64	1441.91	50.88%	48.88%	+14.90	3-3
2024-10-20	Miami Dolphins	W 16-10	1484.54	1433.47	60.07%	39.69%	+17.11	4-3
2024-10-27	@ Houston Texans	L 20-23	1501.65	1538.92	41.61%	58.15%	-12.68	4-4
2024-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-21	1488.97	1569.00	35.77%	63.98%	-17.82	4-5
2024-11-10	Buffalo Bills	L 20-30	1471.15	1646.87	28.97%	70.79%	-16.13	4-6
2024-11-17	@ New York Jets	W 28-27	1455.02	1420.44	51.86%	47.89%	+8.42	5-6
2024-11-24	Detroit Lions	L 6-24	1463.44	1715.84	20.78%	78.98%	-15.53	5-7
2024-12-01	@ New England Patriots	W 25-24	1447.91	1342.83	61.77%	37.98%	+6.69	6-7
2024-12-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-31	1454.60	1584.08	29.53%	70.23%	-22.07	6-8
2024-12-22	Tennessee Titans	W 38-30	1432.53	1334.61	66.31%	33.44%	+16.66	7-8
2024-12-29	@ New York Giants	L 33-45	1449.19	1263.27	71.98%	27.78%	-43.85	7-9
2025-01-05	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-23	1405.34	1366.45	58.38%	41.38%	+12.62	8-9
2024-09-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1494.81	1518.40	43.53%	56.22%	-13.27	0-1
2024-09-15	Cleveland Browns	L 13-18	1481.54	1468.17	54.77%	44.98%	-21.54	0-2
2024-09-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-47	1460.00	1617.23	26.32%	73.44%	-28.20	0-3
2024-09-29	@ Houston Texans	L 20-24	1431.80	1491.42	38.52%	61.24%	-13.56	0-4
2024-10-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 37-34	1418.24	1486.92	43.03%	56.73%	+17.28	1-4
2024-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-35	1435.52	1512.79	36.14%	63.61%	-27.73	1-5
2024-10-20	New England Patriots	W 32-16	1407.79	1358.49	59.82%	39.93%	+28.12	2-5
2024-10-27	Green Bay Packers	L 27-30	1435.91	1589.80	31.62%	68.13%	-9.65	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-28	1426.26	1585.53	26.09%	73.67%	-10.27	2-7
2024-11-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-12	1415.99	1586.81	29.55%	70.20%	-11.64	2-8
2024-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-52	1404.35	1699.20	13.92%	85.83%	-16.64	2-9
2024-12-01	Houston Texans	L 20-23	1387.71	1516.25	34.86%	64.90%	-10.63	2-10
2024-12-08	@ Tennessee Titans	W 10-6	1377.08	1371.84	47.64%	52.11%	+18.33	3-10
2024-12-15	New York Jets	L 25-32	1395.41	1380.76	54.96%	44.80%	-25.57	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 14-19	1369.84	1282.59	59.33%	40.43%	-23.33	3-12
2024-12-29	Tennessee Titans	W 20-13	1346.51	1317.95	56.93%	42.83%	+19.94	4-12
2025-01-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-26	1366.45	1405.34	41.38%	58.38%	-12.62	4-13
2024-09-05	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-20	1562.72	1579.05	50.52%	49.24%	+22.92	1-0
2024-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-25	1585.64	1487.03	66.40%	33.36%	+5.87	2-0
2024-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 22-17	1591.51	1452.97	66.19%	33.56%	+13.22	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 17-10	1604.73	1510.78	60.25%	39.51%	+18.39	4-0
2024-10-07	New Orleans Saints	W 26-13	1623.12	1564.64	61.08%	38.67%	+24.55	5-0
2024-10-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-18	1647.67	1591.80	54.91%	44.84%	+24.95	6-0
2024-10-27	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 27-20	1672.62	1383.23	82.26%	17.49%	+8.16	7-0
2024-11-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-24	1680.78	1516.18	74.25%	25.50%	+11.00	8-0
2024-11-10	Denver Broncos	W 16-14	1691.78	1522.55	74.76%	25.00%	+6.23	9-0
2024-11-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-30	1698.01	1663.00	51.93%	47.83%	-27.40	9-1
2024-11-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-27	1670.61	1320.85	86.73%	13.03%	+3.97	10-1
2024-11-29	Las Vegas Raiders	W 19-17	1674.58	1314.61	89.75%	10.01%	+2.50	11-1
2024-12-08	Los Angeles Chargers	W 19-17	1677.08	1582.81	65.84%	33.91%	+8.44	12-1
2024-12-15	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-7	1685.52	1362.64	84.88%	14.88%	+9.81	13-1
2024-12-21	Houston Texans	W 27-19	1695.33	1547.13	72.42%	27.34%	+13.62	14-1
2024-12-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-10	1708.95	1569.55	66.30%	33.45%	+25.68	15-1
2025-01-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-38	1734.63	1555.62	71.17%	28.58%	-25.72	15-2
2024-09-08	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-22	1497.31	1474.19	50.22%	49.54%	-30.60	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 26-23	1466.71	1556.13	34.54%	65.21%	+19.86	1-1
2024-09-22	Carolina Panthers	L 22-36	1486.57	1362.57	69.57%	30.19%	-45.77	1-2
2024-09-29	Cleveland Browns	W 20-16	1440.80	1462.26	49.78%	49.98%	+17.59	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 18-34	1458.39	1503.50	40.51%	59.24%	-28.53	2-3
2024-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-32	1429.86	1534.30	38.07%	61.68%	-29.21	2-4
2024-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 15-20	1400.65	1419.01	44.27%	55.48%	-17.42	2-5
2024-10-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1383.23	1672.62	17.49%	82.26%	-8.15	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-41	1375.08	1480.02	32.55%	67.20%	-23.64	2-7
2024-11-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 19-34	1351.44	1434.47	35.38%	64.38%	-24.12	2-8
2024-11-24	Denver Broncos	L 19-29	1327.32	1559.04	22.81%	76.95%	-12.71	2-9
2024-11-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-19	1314.61	1674.58	10.01%	89.75%	-2.49	2-10
2024-12-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-28	1312.12	1528.62	20.25%	79.51%	-13.82	2-11
2024-12-16	Atlanta Falcons	L 9-15	1298.30	1414.91	36.43%	63.32%	-15.71	2-12
2024-12-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 19-14	1282.59	1369.84	40.43%	59.33%	+23.33	3-12
2024-12-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 25-10	1305.92	1418.97	31.54%	68.22%	+46.47	4-12
2025-01-05	Los Angeles Chargers	L 20-34	1352.39	1575.45	23.70%	76.06%	-15.62	4-13
2024-09-08	Las Vegas Raiders	W 22-10	1474.19	1497.31	49.54%	50.22%	+30.60	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Carolina Panthers	W 26-3	1504.79	1393.98	62.55%	37.21%	+31.42	2-0
2024-09-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-20	1536.21	1544.62	45.69%	54.07%	-25.43	2-1
2024-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1510.78	1604.73	39.51%	60.25%	-18.39	2-2
2024-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-16	1492.39	1532.03	41.27%	58.48%	+27.21	3-2
2024-10-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-17	1519.60	1407.39	62.73%	37.02%	-15.60	3-3
2024-10-27	New Orleans Saints	W 26-8	1504.00	1448.69	60.65%	39.11%	+29.20	4-3
2024-11-03	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-10	1533.20	1414.83	63.56%	36.20%	+26.28	5-3
2024-11-10	Tennessee Titans	W 27-17	1559.48	1397.78	73.93%	25.82%	+14.38	6-3
2024-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-27	1573.86	1499.03	63.29%	36.47%	+16.99	7-3
2024-11-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 23-30	1590.85	1652.68	44.00%	55.76%	-20.49	7-4
2024-12-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1570.36	1445.59	64.40%	35.35%	+12.45	8-4
2024-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-19	1582.81	1677.08	33.91%	65.84%	-8.45	8-5
2024-12-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-40	1574.36	1542.44	57.40%	42.35%	-48.41	8-6
2024-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 34-27	1525.95	1606.14	41.41%	58.34%	+27.14	9-6
2024-12-28	@ New England Patriots	W 40-7	1553.09	1314.19	77.67%	22.09%	+22.36	10-6
2025-01-05	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 34-20	1575.45	1352.39	76.06%	23.70%	+15.62	11-6
2024-09-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-26	1503.99	1529.49	43.26%	56.50%	-18.65	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-41	1485.34	1440.71	53.31%	46.45%	-52.21	0-2
2024-09-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1433.13	1577.63	32.80%	66.95%	+20.39	1-2
2024-09-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 18-24	1453.52	1463.42	45.48%	54.28%	-19.60	1-3
2024-10-06	Green Bay Packers	L 19-24	1433.92	1539.80	37.88%	61.88%	-14.91	1-4
2024-10-20	Las Vegas Raiders	W 20-15	1419.01	1400.65	55.48%	44.27%	+17.42	2-4
2024-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-20	1436.43	1608.10	29.45%	70.30%	+39.10	3-4
2024-11-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 26-20	1475.53	1483.98	45.68%	54.07%	+23.30	4-4
2024-11-11	Miami Dolphins	L 15-23	1498.83	1401.53	66.23%	33.52%	-32.95	4-5
2024-11-17	@ New England Patriots	W 28-22	1465.88	1387.31	58.12%	41.64%	+17.96	5-5
2024-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-37	1483.84	1645.82	30.62%	69.13%	-22.24	5-6
2024-12-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-14	1461.60	1460.12	47.11%	52.65%	+24.50	6-6
2024-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 44-42	1486.10	1713.38	23.26%	76.50%	+19.03	7-6
2024-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 12-6	1505.13	1537.66	42.27%	57.49%	+24.77	8-6
2024-12-22	@ New York Jets	W 19-9	1529.90	1406.34	64.24%	35.51%	+19.77	9-6
2024-12-28	Arizona Cardinals	W 13-9	1549.67	1443.63	67.34%	32.41%	+11.41	10-6
2025-01-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 25-30	1561.08	1523.67	58.17%	41.59%	-22.88	10-7
2024-09-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-17	1518.40	1494.81	56.22%	43.53%	+13.27	1-0
2024-09-12	Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1531.67	1580.23	45.89%	53.87%	-37.01	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-24	1494.66	1529.01	42.01%	57.74%	-33.88	1-2
2024-09-30	Tennessee Titans	L 12-31	1460.78	1394.25	62.18%	37.58%	-47.66	1-3
2024-10-06	@ New England Patriots	W 15-10	1413.12	1405.32	48.01%	51.74%	+20.35	2-3
2024-10-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-16	1433.47	1484.54	39.69%	60.07%	-17.11	2-4
2024-10-27	Arizona Cardinals	L 27-28	1416.36	1422.99	51.91%	47.84%	-9.14	2-5
2024-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 27-30	1407.22	1641.17	18.68%	81.08%	-5.69	2-6
2024-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-15	1401.53	1498.83	33.52%	66.23%	+32.94	3-6
2024-11-17	Las Vegas Raiders	W 34-19	1434.47	1351.44	64.38%	35.38%	+24.12	4-6
2024-11-24	New England Patriots	W 34-15	1458.59	1369.36	65.19%	34.57%	+26.53	5-6
2024-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-30	1485.12	1623.76	28.44%	71.31%	-18.06	5-7
2024-12-08	New York Jets	W 32-26	1467.06	1396.75	62.69%	37.07%	+15.98	6-7
2024-12-15	@ Houston Texans	L 12-20	1483.04	1526.88	40.69%	59.07%	-20.25	6-8
2024-12-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 29-17	1462.79	1512.89	45.67%	54.09%	+32.96	7-8
2024-12-29	@ Cleveland Browns	W 20-3	1495.75	1332.99	69.23%	30.53%	+22.16	8-8
2025-01-05	@ New York Jets	L 20-32	1517.91	1376.40	66.57%	33.18%	-40.55	8-9
2024-09-08	@ New York Giants	W 28-6	1489.92	1467.33	50.14%	49.62%	+40.95	1-0
2024-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-17	1530.87	1602.23	42.65%	57.11%	+24.60	2-0
2024-09-22	Houston Texans	W 34-7	1555.47	1531.13	56.33%	43.43%	+39.71	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-29	1595.18	1551.38	53.19%	46.57%	+11.59	4-0
2024-10-06	New York Jets	W 23-17	1606.77	1501.36	67.26%	32.49%	+14.01	5-0
2024-10-20	Detroit Lions	L 29-31	1620.78	1633.85	50.99%	48.77%	-12.68	5-1
2024-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-30	1608.10	1436.43	70.30%	29.45%	-39.10	5-2
2024-11-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-13	1569.00	1488.97	63.98%	35.77%	+17.81	6-2
2024-11-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 12-7	1586.81	1415.99	70.20%	29.55%	+11.64	7-2
2024-11-17	@ Tennessee Titans	W 23-13	1598.45	1383.40	75.22%	24.54%	+13.67	8-2
2024-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 30-27	1612.12	1422.67	72.38%	27.37%	+8.35	9-2
2024-12-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-22	1620.47	1489.27	70.43%	29.32%	+5.16	10-2
2024-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 42-21	1625.63	1433.14	77.18%	22.57%	+18.23	11-2
2024-12-16	Chicago Bears	W 30-12	1643.86	1381.05	83.47%	16.28%	+12.17	12-2
2024-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1656.03	1524.57	65.28%	34.48%	+10.52	13-2
2024-12-29	Green Bay Packers	W 27-25	1666.55	1682.10	50.63%	49.13%	+12.22	14-2
2025-01-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-31	1678.77	1738.19	38.54%	61.21%	-31.82	14-3
2024-09-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-10	1451.10	1513.58	38.13%	61.63%	+26.55	1-0
2024-09-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-23	1477.65	1514.52	47.56%	52.19%	-14.49	1-1
2024-09-19	@ New York Jets	L 3-24	1463.16	1474.60	45.26%	54.50%	-36.50	1-2
2024-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-30	1426.66	1557.23	29.40%	70.36%	-21.34	1-3
2024-10-06	Miami Dolphins	L 10-15	1405.32	1413.12	51.74%	48.01%	-20.36	1-4
2024-10-13	Houston Texans	L 21-41	1384.96	1523.07	33.62%	66.14%	-26.47	1-5
2024-10-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-32	1358.49	1407.79	39.93%	59.82%	-28.12	1-6
2024-10-27	New York Jets	W 25-22	1330.37	1446.39	36.51%	63.24%	+19.27	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1349.64	1385.02	41.87%	57.89%	-12.76	2-7
2024-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-3	1336.88	1478.83	28.06%	71.70%	+50.43	3-7
2024-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 22-28	1387.31	1465.88	41.64%	58.12%	-17.95	3-8
2024-11-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 15-34	1369.36	1458.59	34.57%	65.19%	-26.53	3-9
2024-12-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-25	1342.83	1447.91	37.98%	61.77%	-6.69	3-10
2024-12-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-30	1336.14	1455.59	30.75%	69.01%	-19.52	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-24	1316.62	1720.24	7.96%	91.80%	-2.43	3-12
2024-12-28	Los Angeles Chargers	L 7-40	1314.19	1553.09	22.09%	77.67%	-22.35	3-13
2025-01-05	Buffalo Bills	W 23-16	1291.84	1732.84	8.14%	91.62%	+14.21	4-13
2024-09-08	Carolina Panthers	W 47-10	1512.70	1432.23	64.04%	35.72%	+38.25	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 44-19	1550.95	1578.39	42.99%	56.77%	+49.92	2-0
2024-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 12-15	1600.87	1516.00	64.62%	35.14%	-19.68	2-1
2024-09-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-26	1581.19	1439.76	66.56%	33.19%	-16.55	2-2
2024-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-26	1564.64	1623.12	38.67%	61.08%	-24.55	2-3
2024-10-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-51	1540.09	1516.99	56.16%	43.60%	-48.39	2-4
2024-10-17	Denver Broncos	L 10-33	1491.70	1504.81	50.98%	48.78%	-43.01	2-5
2024-10-27	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 8-26	1448.69	1504.00	39.11%	60.65%	-29.20	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 22-23	1419.49	1292.25	64.73%	35.03%	-11.39	2-7
2024-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1408.10	1506.85	38.85%	60.91%	+18.56	3-7
2024-11-17	Cleveland Browns	W 35-14	1426.66	1388.55	58.27%	41.49%	+33.46	4-7
2024-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-21	1460.12	1461.60	52.65%	47.11%	-24.50	4-8
2024-12-08	@ New York Giants	W 14-11	1435.62	1310.10	64.50%	35.25%	+10.75	5-8
2024-12-15	Washington Commanders	L 19-20	1446.37	1531.10	40.78%	58.98%	-7.18	5-9
2024-12-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-34	1439.19	1661.88	19.68%	80.08%	-20.22	5-10
2024-12-29	Las Vegas Raiders	L 10-25	1418.97	1305.92	68.22%	31.54%	-46.46	5-11
2025-01-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-27	1372.51	1590.88	20.08%	79.68%	-10.01	5-12
2024-09-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-28	1467.33	1489.92	49.62%	50.14%	-40.94	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Washington Commanders	L 18-21	1426.39	1412.28	48.92%	50.84%	-14.91	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-15	1411.48	1489.71	36.01%	63.74%	+27.46	1-2
2024-09-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 15-20	1438.94	1512.70	42.31%	57.44%	-16.65	1-3
2024-10-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 29-20	1422.29	1532.09	31.94%	67.82%	+35.78	2-3
2024-10-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1458.07	1471.99	50.86%	48.89%	-28.30	2-4
2024-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-28	1429.77	1510.87	41.29%	58.47%	-36.33	2-5
2024-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-26	1393.44	1592.14	21.96%	77.80%	-10.94	2-6
2024-11-03	Washington Commanders	L 22-27	1382.50	1554.82	29.37%	70.38%	-11.57	2-7
2024-11-10	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1370.93	1303.63	56.53%	43.22%	-17.22	2-8
2024-11-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-30	1353.71	1492.44	33.54%	66.22%	-28.32	2-9
2024-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1325.39	1428.18	32.82%	66.93%	-15.29	2-10
2024-12-08	New Orleans Saints	L 11-14	1310.10	1435.62	35.25%	64.50%	-10.75	2-11
2024-12-15	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-35	1299.35	1652.08	12.83%	86.92%	-10.37	2-12
2024-12-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-34	1288.98	1430.63	28.09%	71.66%	-25.71	2-13
2024-12-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-33	1263.27	1449.19	27.78%	71.98%	+43.85	3-13
2025-01-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-20	1307.12	1714.92	7.78%	91.97%	-1.21	3-14
2024-09-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-32	1470.45	1582.10	31.71%	68.05%	-20.13	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1450.32	1445.45	47.59%	52.16%	+24.28	1-1
2024-09-19	New England Patriots	W 24-3	1474.60	1463.16	54.50%	45.26%	+36.49	2-1
2024-09-29	Denver Broncos	L 9-10	1511.09	1493.77	55.34%	44.42%	-9.73	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-23	1501.36	1606.77	32.49%	67.26%	-14.01	2-3
2024-10-14	Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1487.35	1574.43	40.45%	59.30%	-12.34	2-4
2024-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-37	1475.01	1563.51	34.66%	65.09%	-28.62	2-5
2024-10-27	@ New England Patriots	L 22-25	1446.39	1330.37	63.24%	36.51%	-19.26	2-6
2024-10-31	Houston Texans	W 21-13	1427.13	1551.60	35.39%	64.36%	+32.01	3-6
2024-11-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-31	1459.14	1479.53	43.98%	55.77%	-38.70	3-7
2024-11-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-28	1420.44	1455.02	47.89%	51.86%	-8.43	3-8
2024-12-01	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-26	1412.01	1511.23	38.78%	60.97%	-15.26	3-9
2024-12-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 26-32	1396.75	1467.06	37.07%	62.69%	-15.99	3-10
2024-12-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 32-25	1380.76	1395.41	44.80%	54.96%	+25.58	4-10
2024-12-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 9-19	1406.34	1529.90	35.51%	64.24%	-19.77	4-11
2024-12-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-40	1386.57	1722.67	11.31%	88.44%	-10.17	4-12
2025-01-05	Miami Dolphins	W 32-20	1376.40	1517.91	33.18%	66.57%	+40.56	5-12
2024-09-06	Green Bay Packers	W 34-29	1507.90	1526.26	50.23%	49.53%	+19.49	1-0
2024-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-22	1527.39	1441.58	64.74%	35.02%	-11.39	1-1
2024-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	W 15-12	1516.00	1600.87	35.14%	64.62%	+19.69	2-1
2024-09-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-33	1535.69	1505.31	51.26%	48.50%	-37.19	2-2
2024-10-13	Cleveland Browns	W 20-16	1498.50	1413.44	64.64%	35.11%	+12.37	3-2
2024-10-20	@ New York Giants	W 28-3	1510.87	1429.77	58.47%	41.29%	+36.33	4-2
2024-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-17	1547.20	1518.35	51.04%	48.71%	+38.33	5-2
2024-11-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-23	1585.53	1426.26	73.67%	26.09%	+10.28	6-2
2024-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-6	1595.81	1459.07	65.96%	33.79%	+31.48	7-2
2024-11-14	Washington Commanders	W 26-18	1627.29	1558.02	62.55%	37.21%	+18.53	8-2
2024-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-20	1645.82	1483.84	69.13%	30.62%	+22.23	9-2
2024-12-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 24-19	1668.05	1673.16	46.16%	53.59%	+21.08	10-2
2024-12-08	Carolina Panthers	W 22-16	1689.13	1309.02	90.75%	9.01%	+3.89	11-2
2024-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-13	1693.02	1621.21	62.89%	36.87%	+24.29	12-2
2024-12-22	@ Washington Commanders	L 33-36	1717.31	1538.28	71.18%	28.58%	-21.68	12-3
2024-12-29	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-7	1695.63	1462.81	80.98%	18.78%	+19.29	13-3
2025-01-05	New York Giants	W 20-13	1714.92	1307.12	91.97%	7.78%	+1.21	14-3
2024-09-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 18-10	1500.38	1465.39	51.92%	47.83%	+23.81	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 13-6	1524.19	1461.55	55.87%	43.88%	+20.43	2-0
2024-09-22	Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-10	1544.62	1536.21	54.07%	45.69%	+25.42	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-27	1570.04	1468.24	61.33%	38.43%	-18.68	3-1
2024-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1551.36	1529.35	56.00%	43.75%	-17.06	3-2
2024-10-13	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 32-13	1534.30	1429.86	61.68%	38.07%	+29.21	4-2
2024-10-20	New York Jets	W 37-15	1563.51	1475.01	65.09%	34.66%	+28.63	5-2
2024-10-28	New York Giants	W 26-18	1592.14	1393.44	77.80%	21.96%	+10.94	6-2
2024-11-10	@ Washington Commanders	W 28-27	1603.08	1566.39	52.17%	47.59%	+8.37	7-2
2024-11-17	Baltimore Ravens	W 18-16	1611.45	1666.30	44.99%	54.77%	+13.62	8-2
2024-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns	L 19-24	1625.07	1355.09	80.59%	19.16%	-31.69	8-3
2024-12-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-38	1593.38	1482.04	62.62%	37.14%	+16.02	9-3
2024-12-08	Cleveland Browns	W 27-14	1609.40	1374.45	81.17%	18.59%	+11.81	10-3
2024-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-27	1621.21	1693.02	36.87%	62.89%	-24.29	10-4
2024-12-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-34	1596.92	1662.45	37.72%	62.04%	-27.37	10-5
2024-12-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-29	1569.55	1708.95	33.45%	66.30%	-25.68	10-6
2025-01-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-19	1543.87	1551.23	51.81%	47.95%	-12.89	10-7
2024-09-09	New York Jets	W 32-19	1582.10	1470.45	68.05%	31.71%	+20.13	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-23	1602.23	1530.87	57.11%	42.65%	-24.60	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1577.63	1433.13	66.95%	32.80%	-20.40	1-2
2024-09-29	New England Patriots	W 30-13	1557.23	1426.66	70.36%	29.40%	+21.35	2-2
2024-10-06	Arizona Cardinals	L 23-24	1578.58	1418.90	73.71%	26.04%	-12.96	2-3
2024-10-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 36-24	1565.62	1496.31	56.82%	42.94%	+26.18	3-3
2024-10-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 18-28	1591.80	1647.67	44.84%	54.91%	-24.96	3-4
2024-10-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-24	1566.84	1494.64	62.94%	36.82%	+15.88	4-4
2024-11-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1582.72	1505.18	57.97%	41.78%	+12.74	5-4
2024-11-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1595.46	1460.69	70.86%	28.90%	-21.59	5-5
2024-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-38	1573.87	1581.06	45.86%	53.89%	-42.70	5-6
2024-12-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-35	1531.17	1690.40	26.09%	73.66%	-22.98	5-7
2024-12-08	Chicago Bears	W 38-13	1508.19	1410.52	66.28%	33.48%	+29.47	6-7
2024-12-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-12	1537.66	1505.13	57.49%	42.27%	-24.77	6-8
2024-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-29	1512.89	1462.79	54.09%	45.67%	-32.95	6-9
2024-12-30	Detroit Lions	L 34-40	1479.94	1729.09	21.09%	78.67%	-9.11	6-10
2025-01-05	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-47	1470.83	1432.21	52.44%	47.31%	-44.24	6-11
2024-09-08	Denver Broncos	W 26-20	1495.19	1480.88	54.91%	44.85%	+19.33	1-0
2024-09-15	@ New England Patriots	W 23-20	1514.52	1477.65	52.19%	47.56%	+14.49	2-0
2024-09-22	Miami Dolphins	W 24-3	1529.01	1494.66	57.74%	42.01%	+33.89	3-0
2024-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 29-42	1562.90	1551.26	48.56%	51.19%	-30.81	3-1
2024-10-06	New York Giants	L 20-29	1532.09	1422.29	67.82%	31.94%	-35.78	3-2
2024-10-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-36	1496.31	1565.62	42.94%	56.82%	-26.17	3-3
2024-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-14	1470.14	1507.82	41.55%	58.21%	+45.78	4-3
2024-10-27	Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1515.92	1609.23	39.59%	60.16%	-31.94	4-4
2024-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1483.98	1475.53	54.07%	45.68%	-23.29	4-5
2024-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1460.69	1595.46	28.90%	70.86%	+21.58	5-5
2024-11-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 16-6	1482.27	1518.23	47.69%	52.06%	+28.96	6-5
2024-12-01	@ New York Jets	W 26-21	1511.23	1412.01	60.97%	38.78%	+15.26	7-5
2024-12-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 30-18	1526.49	1484.10	52.99%	46.77%	+28.51	8-5
2024-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 13-30	1555.00	1631.45	41.94%	57.82%	-30.43	8-6
2024-12-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1524.57	1656.03	34.48%	65.28%	-10.51	8-7
2024-12-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 6-3	1514.06	1359.46	68.22%	31.53%	+9.61	9-7
2025-01-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-25	1523.67	1561.08	41.59%	58.17%	+22.88	10-7
2024-09-08	Washington Commanders	W 37-20	1512.29	1438.89	63.10%	36.66%	+26.61	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-16	1538.90	1548.14	45.57%	54.19%	+19.06	2-0
2024-09-22	Denver Broncos	L 7-26	1557.96	1441.12	68.69%	31.07%	-52.65	2-1
2024-09-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-16	1505.31	1535.69	48.50%	51.26%	+37.18	3-1
2024-10-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 30-36	1542.49	1456.31	59.18%	40.58%	-25.50	3-2
2024-10-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 51-27	1516.99	1540.09	43.60%	56.16%	+48.39	4-2
2024-10-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 31-41	1565.38	1632.39	43.26%	56.49%	-24.08	4-3
2024-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	L 26-31	1541.30	1462.04	63.88%	35.88%	-25.12	4-4
2024-11-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-30	1516.18	1680.78	25.50%	74.25%	-11.00	4-5
2024-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1505.18	1582.72	41.78%	57.97%	-12.74	4-6
2024-11-24	@ New York Giants	W 30-7	1492.44	1353.71	66.22%	33.54%	+28.32	5-6
2024-12-01	@ Carolina Panthers	W 26-23	1520.76	1316.88	74.01%	25.75%	+7.86	6-6
2024-12-08	Las Vegas Raiders	W 28-13	1528.62	1312.12	79.51%	20.25%	+13.82	7-6
2024-12-15	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 40-17	1542.44	1574.36	42.35%	57.40%	+48.41	8-6
2024-12-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-26	1590.85	1446.16	66.98%	32.78%	-16.65	8-7
2024-12-29	Carolina Panthers	W 48-14	1574.20	1310.83	83.52%	16.24%	+16.68	9-7
2025-01-05	New Orleans Saints	W 27-19	1590.88	1372.51	79.68%	20.08%	+10.01	10-7
2024-09-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-24	1466.16	1482.93	44.50%	55.26%	-20.71	0-1
2024-09-15	New York Jets	L 17-24	1445.45	1450.32	52.16%	47.59%	-24.28	0-2
2024-09-22	Green Bay Packers	L 14-30	1421.17	1524.47	38.23%	61.53%	-26.92	0-3
2024-09-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-12	1394.25	1460.78	37.58%	62.18%	+47.66	1-3
2024-10-13	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1441.91	1469.64	48.88%	50.88%	-14.89	1-4
2024-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-34	1427.02	1586.76	26.04%	73.72%	-22.47	1-5
2024-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-52	1404.55	1646.53	17.98%	81.77%	-19.53	1-6
2024-11-03	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1385.02	1349.64	57.89%	41.87%	+12.76	2-6
2024-11-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-27	1397.78	1559.48	25.82%	73.93%	-14.38	2-7
2024-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-23	1383.40	1598.45	24.54%	75.22%	-13.67	2-8
2024-11-24	@ Houston Texans	W 32-27	1369.73	1545.94	24.25%	75.50%	+29.69	3-8
2024-12-01	@ Washington Commanders	L 19-42	1399.42	1503.52	32.66%	67.10%	-27.58	3-9
2024-12-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-10	1371.84	1377.08	52.11%	47.64%	-18.33	3-10
2024-12-15	Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-37	1353.51	1489.13	33.94%	65.82%	-18.90	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 30-38	1334.61	1432.53	33.44%	66.31%	-16.66	3-12
2024-12-29	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-20	1317.95	1346.51	42.83%	56.93%	-19.94	3-13
2025-01-05	Houston Texans	L 14-23	1298.01	1503.81	25.54%	74.22%	-4.50	3-14
2024-09-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-37	1438.89	1512.29	36.66%	63.10%	-26.61	0-1
2024-09-15	New York Giants	W 21-18	1412.28	1426.39	50.84%	48.92%	+14.91	1-1
2024-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-33	1427.19	1481.16	39.29%	60.47%	+23.78	2-1
2024-09-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 42-14	1450.97	1470.72	44.07%	55.68%	+51.82	3-1
2024-10-06	Cleveland Browns	W 34-13	1502.79	1444.67	61.03%	38.72%	+31.24	4-1
2024-10-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 23-30	1534.03	1615.84	35.54%	64.22%	-16.56	4-2
2024-10-20	Carolina Panthers	W 40-7	1517.47	1327.06	76.97%	22.78%	+23.06	5-2
2024-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 18-15	1540.53	1540.53	52.86%	46.89%	+14.29	6-2
2024-11-03	@ New York Giants	W 27-22	1554.82	1382.50	70.38%	29.37%	+11.57	7-2
2024-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-28	1566.39	1603.08	47.59%	52.17%	-8.37	7-3
2024-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 18-26	1558.02	1627.29	37.21%	62.55%	-18.53	7-4
2024-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 26-34	1539.49	1392.21	72.31%	27.44%	-35.97	7-5
2024-12-01	Tennessee Titans	W 42-19	1503.52	1399.42	67.10%	32.66%	+27.58	8-5
2024-12-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-19	1531.10	1446.37	58.98%	40.78%	+7.18	9-5
2024-12-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 36-33	1538.28	1717.31	28.58%	71.18%	+21.68	10-5
2024-12-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1559.96	1456.34	67.04%	32.72%	+14.11	11-5
2025-01-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-19	1574.07	1443.52	65.16%	34.60%	+12.18	12-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2025-01-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-14	1726.35	1530.98	77.63%	22.37%	+14.69	1-0
2025-01-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 25-27	1741.04	1743.31	46.69%	53.31%	-11.59	1-1
2025-01-12	Denver Broncos	W 31-7	1718.63	1581.34	71.30%	28.70%	+24.68	1-0
2025-01-19	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-25	1743.31	1741.04	53.31%	46.69%	+11.58	2-0
2025-01-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 29-32	1754.89	1722.98	51.60%	48.40%	-15.68	2-1
2025-01-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-31	1581.34	1718.63	28.70%	71.30%	-24.68	0-1
2025-01-18	Washington Commanders	L 31-45	1770.01	1602.99	74.67%	25.33%	-49.03	0-1
2025-01-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-22	1648.12	1716.13	37.49%	62.51%	-22.80	0-1
2025-01-11	Los Angeles Chargers	W 32-12	1508.31	1591.07	41.17%	58.83%	+46.17	1-0
2025-01-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-23	1554.48	1708.91	26.73%	73.27%	-14.07	1-1
2025-01-18	Houston Texans	W 23-14	1708.91	1554.48	73.27%	26.73%	+14.07	1-0
2025-01-26	Buffalo Bills	W 32-29	1722.98	1754.89	48.40%	51.60%	+15.68	2-0
2025-02-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-40	1738.66	1783.67	40.65%	59.35%	-30.26	2-1
2025-01-11	@ Houston Texans	L 12-32	1591.07	1508.31	58.83%	41.17%	-46.17	0-1
2025-01-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-9	1538.20	1646.95	37.60%	62.40%	+46.46	1-0
2025-01-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-28	1584.66	1738.92	26.75%	73.25%	-11.49	1-1
2025-01-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-27	1646.95	1538.20	62.40%	37.60%	-46.46	0-1
2025-01-12	Green Bay Packers	W 22-10	1716.13	1648.12	62.51%	37.49%	+22.79	1-0
2025-01-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-22	1738.92	1584.66	73.25%	26.75%	+11.50	2-0
2025-01-26	Washington Commanders	W 55-23	1750.42	1652.02	66.51%	33.49%	+33.25	3-0
2025-02-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 40-22	1783.67	1738.66	59.35%	40.65%	+30.27	4-0
2025-01-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-28	1530.98	1726.35	22.37%	77.63%	-14.69	0-1
2025-01-12	Washington Commanders	L 20-23	1600.89	1586.25	55.08%	44.92%	-16.74	0-1
2025-01-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1586.25	1600.89	44.92%	55.08%	+16.74	1-0
2025-01-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 45-31	1602.99	1770.01	25.33%	74.67%	+49.03	2-0
2025-01-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-55	1652.02	1750.42	33.49%	66.51%	-33.25	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2025-01-05	8.14%	@ New England Patriots	1291.84	23	Buffalo Bills	1732.84	16
2	2025-01-05	12.27%	Chicago Bears	1349.84	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1669.88	22
3	2024-10-27	18.85%	@ Cleveland Browns	1383.01	29	Baltimore Ravens	1656.47	24
4	2024-11-21	19.16%	@ Cleveland Browns	1355.09	24	Pittsburgh Steelers	1625.07	19
5	2024-12-08	23.26%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1486.10	44	Buffalo Bills	1713.38	42
6	2024-11-24	24.25%	Tennessee Titans	1369.73	32	@ Houston Texans	1545.94	27
7	2025-01-18 *	25.33%	Washington Commanders	1602.99	45	@ Detroit Lions	1770.01	31
8	2024-10-06	26.04%	Arizona Cardinals	1418.90	24	@ San Francisco 49ers	1578.58	23
9	2024-12-22	26.65%	@ Carolina Panthers	1279.35	36	Arizona Cardinals	1475.12	30
10	2025-01-05	27.35%	Carolina Panthers	1294.15	44	@ Atlanta Falcons	1442.22	38
11	2024-11-24	27.44%	Dallas Cowboys	1392.21	34	@ Washington Commanders	1539.49	26
12	2024-12-29	27.78%	@ New York Giants	1263.27	45	Indianapolis Colts	1449.19	33
13	2024-11-10	28.06%	New England Patriots	1336.88	19	@ Chicago Bears	1478.83	3
14	2024-12-22	28.58%	@ Washington Commanders	1538.28	36	Philadelphia Eagles	1717.31	33
15	2025-01-05	28.58%	@ Denver Broncos	1555.62	38	Kansas City Chiefs	1734.63	0
16	2024-11-17	28.90%	Seattle Seahawks	1460.69	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1595.46	17
17	2024-10-24	29.45%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1436.43	30	Minnesota Vikings	1608.10	20
18	2024-09-22	30.19%	Carolina Panthers	1362.57	36	@ Las Vegas Raiders	1486.57	22
19	2024-09-22	31.07%	Denver Broncos	1441.12	26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1557.96	7
20	2024-12-29	31.54%	Las Vegas Raiders	1305.92	25	@ New Orleans Saints	1418.97	10
21	2024-10-06	31.94%	New York Giants	1422.29	29	@ Seattle Seahawks	1532.09	20
22	2024-12-22	32.78%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1446.16	26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1590.85	24
23	2024-09-22	32.80%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1433.13	27	San Francisco 49ers	1577.63	24
24	2025-01-05	33.18%	@ New York Jets	1376.40	32	Miami Dolphins	1517.91	20
25	2024-09-29	33.19%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1439.76	26	New Orleans Saints	1581.19	24

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2024-09-29	52.92	@ Baltimore Ravens	35	1552.03	39.58%	Buffalo Bills	10	1645.43	60.17%
2	2024-09-22	52.65	Denver Broncos	26	1441.12	31.07%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	1557.96	68.69%
3	2024-09-15	52.21	@ Arizona Cardinals	41	1440.71	46.45%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1485.34	53.31%
4	2024-09-29	51.82	Washington Commanders	42	1450.97	44.07%	@ Arizona Cardinals	14	1470.72	55.68%
5	2024-10-13	51.78	Detroit Lions	47	1582.07	52.02%	@ Dallas Cowboys	9	1546.41	47.74%
6	2024-11-10	50.43	New England Patriots	19	1336.88	28.06%	@ Chicago Bears	3	1478.83	71.70%
7	2024-09-15	49.92	New Orleans Saints	44	1550.95	42.99%	@ Dallas Cowboys	19	1578.39	56.77%
8	2025-01-18 *	49.03	Washington Commanders	45	1602.99	25.33%	@ Detroit Lions	31	1770.01	74.67%
9	2024-12-15	48.41	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40	1542.44	42.35%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	17	1574.36	57.40%
10	2024-10-13	48.39	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	51	1516.99	43.60%	@ New Orleans Saints	27	1540.09	56.16%
11	2024-09-30	47.66	Tennessee Titans	31	1394.25	37.58%	@ Miami Dolphins	12	1460.78	62.18%
12	2024-11-03	47.41	@ Arizona Cardinals	29	1432.12	39.48%	Chicago Bears	9	1526.24	60.27%
13	2024-12-29	46.47	Las Vegas Raiders	25	1305.92	31.54%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1418.97	68.22%
14	2025-01-13 *	46.46	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1538.20	37.60%	Minnesota Vikings	9	1646.95	62.40%
15	2025-01-11 *	46.17	@ Houston Texans	32	1508.31	41.17%	Los Angeles Chargers	12	1591.07	58.83%
16	2024-10-20	45.78	Seattle Seahawks	34	1470.14	41.55%	@ Atlanta Falcons	14	1507.82	58.21%
17	2024-09-22	45.77	Carolina Panthers	36	1362.57	30.19%	@ Las Vegas Raiders	22	1486.57	69.57%
18	2025-01-05	44.25	@ Arizona Cardinals	47	1432.21	47.31%	San Francisco 49ers	24	1470.83	52.44%
19	2024-12-29	43.85	@ New York Giants	45	1263.27	27.78%	Indianapolis Colts	33	1449.19	71.98%
20	2024-10-17	43.01	Denver Broncos	33	1504.81	48.78%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1491.70	50.98%
21	2024-11-17	42.71	@ Denver Broncos	38	1516.33	56.85%	Atlanta Falcons	6	1488.30	42.90%
22	2024-11-24	42.70	@ Green Bay Packers	38	1581.06	53.89%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1573.87	45.86%
23	2024-09-08	40.95	Minnesota Vikings	28	1489.92	50.14%	@ New York Giants	6	1467.33	49.62%
24	2025-01-05	40.56	@ New York Jets	32	1376.40	33.18%	Miami Dolphins	20	1517.91	66.57%
25	2024-09-22	39.71	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1555.47	56.33%	Houston Texans	7	1531.13	43.43%