1998 NFL Season

240 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Denver Broncos

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1997

Runner-Up

Atlanta Falcons

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Minnesota Vikings

4.25 wins above expected

15 wins · 10.75 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

2.70 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.70 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Jacksonville Jaguars Division	11	5	.688	—	392	338	+54	9.56	+1.44
2	Tennessee Oilers	8	8	.500	3	330	320	+10	7.71	+0.29
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	9	.438	4	263	303	-40	8.52	-1.52
4	Baltimore Ravens	6	10	.375	5	269	335	-66	7.04	-1.04
5	Cincinnati Bengals	3	13	.188	8	268	452	-184	5.65	-2.65

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Jets Division	12	4	.750	—	416	266	+150	8.84	+3.16
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	400	333	+67	8.19	+1.81
3	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	321	265	+56	8.70	+1.30
4	New England Patriots Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	337	329	+8	8.59	+0.41
5	Indianapolis Colts	3	13	.188	9	310	444	-134	5.46	-2.46

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	14	2	.875	—	501	309	+192	12.15	+1.85
2	Seattle Seahawks	8	8	.500	6	372	310	+62	8.40	-0.40
3	Oakland Raiders	8	8	.500	6	288	356	-68	7.34	+0.66
4	Kansas City Chiefs	7	9	.438	7	327	363	-36	8.29	-1.29
5	San Diego Chargers	5	11	.312	9	241	342	-101	6.15	-1.15

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	15	1	.938	—	556	296	+260	10.75	+4.25
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	11	5	.688	4	408	319	+89	10.75	+0.25
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	8	.500	7	314	295	+19	7.78	+0.22
4	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	10	306	378	-72	7.00	-2.00
5	Chicago Bears	4	12	.250	11	276	368	-92	5.54	-1.54

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	10	6	.625	—	381	275	+106	10.09	-0.09
2	Arizona Cardinals Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	325	378	-53	7.67	+1.33
3	New York Giants	8	8	.500	2	287	309	-22	7.70	+0.30
4	Washington Redskins	6	10	.375	4	319	421	-102	6.57	-0.57
5	Philadelphia Eagles	3	13	.188	7	161	344	-183	5.70	-2.70

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	14	2	.875	—	442	289	+153	9.88	+4.12
2	San Francisco 49ers Playoffs	12	4	.750	2	479	328	+151	11.07	+0.93
3	New Orleans Saints	6	10	.375	8	305	359	-54	6.52	-0.52
4	St. Louis Rams	4	12	.250	10	285	378	-93	6.32	-2.32
5	Carolina Panthers	4	12	.250	10	336	413	-77	6.09	-2.09

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 24

Buffalo Bills 17

Jan 2

Jacksonville Jaguars 25

New England Patriots 10

Jan 3

Divisional Round

Denver Broncos 38

Miami Dolphins 3

Jan 9

New York Jets 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Jan 10

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 23

New York Jets 10

Jan 17

NFC

Wild Card Round

Arizona Cardinals 20

Dallas Cowboys 7

Jan 2

San Francisco 49ers 30

Green Bay Packers 27

Jan 3

Divisional Round

Atlanta Falcons 20

San Francisco 49ers 18

Jan 9

Minnesota Vikings 41

Arizona Cardinals 21

Jan 10

Conference Championship

Atlanta Falcons 30

Minnesota Vikings 27

Jan 17

Super Bowl

Denver Broncos 34

Atlanta Falcons 19

Jan 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1771	15	10.75	+4.25	99.93%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1729	14	12.15	+1.85	93.60%	5	9	11	12	13	15	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1704	14	9.88	+4.12	99.72%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1693	12	8.84	+3.16	97.94%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1656	12	11.07	+0.93	79.13%	5	8	10	11	12	14	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1645	11	10.75	+0.25	66.19%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC Central	1604	11	9.56	+1.44	86.45%	1	7	8	10	11	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1583	10	8.70	+1.30	83.47%	2	6	7	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1572	10	10.09	-0.09	59.10%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1566	10	8.19	+1.81	88.69%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1534	8	8.40	-0.40	52.94%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1533	8	7.78	+0.22	64.95%	1	5	6	8	9	11	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1531	9	8.59	+0.41	69.29%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Tennessee Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1525	8	7.71	+0.29	66.63%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1511	8	7.70	+0.30	66.84%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1496	7	8.29	-1.29	33.90%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1466	7	8.52	-1.52	29.82%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1446	6	6.57	-0.57	49.78%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1431	9	7.67	+1.33	83.59%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1428	8	7.34	+0.66	73.63%	0	4	6	7	9	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1428	5	7.00	-2.00	21.30%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC Central	1415	6	7.04	-1.04	39.42%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1408	6	6.52	-0.52	50.19%	0	4	5	6	8	10	13
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC West	1407	4	6.09	-2.09	19.70%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1362	4	6.32	-2.32	16.46%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1358	4	5.54	-1.54	28.48%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1330	5	6.15	-1.15	37.11%	0	3	5	6	7	9	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1309	3	5.46	-2.46	12.94%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1282	3	5.65	-2.65	11.83%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1276	3	5.70	-2.70	10.86%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Jaguars	Steelers	Oilers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Tennessee Oilers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Oilers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	3-1 (3.1 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	4-0 (3.1 exp.)	—	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cardinals	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	49ers	Rams
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.62%	1.67%	1.88%	1.25%	0.62%	0.21%	6.25%
7–13	0.62%	5.42%	4.58%	2.08%	3.33%	1.04%	0.42%	17.50%
14–20	1.67%	4.58%	7.50%	6.67%	3.75%	1.67%	0.42%	26.25%
21–27	1.88%	2.08%	6.67%	5.83%	4.58%	1.04%	1.04%	23.12%
28–34	1.25%	3.33%	3.75%	4.58%	2.50%	1.67%	0.21%	17.29%
35–41	0.62%	1.04%	1.67%	1.04%	1.67%	0.42%	0.21%	6.67%
42+	0.21%	0.42%	0.42%	1.04%	0.21%	0.21%	0.42%	2.92%
Total	6.25%	17.50%	26.25%	23.12%	17.29%	6.67%	2.92%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.28	21.28	+0.00
SD	10.08	10.08	14.54
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	51	51	+40
Min	0	0	-40

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	62.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	23.62	-3.31
SD	8.66	11.58	12.34
CV	0.43	0.49	—
Max	45	42	+14
Min	7	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.62	18.06	+9.56
SD	11.41	6.07	13.71
CV	0.41	0.34	—
Max	51	31	+31
Min	3	10	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.81	20.94	-4.12
SD	9.58	10.48	11.74
CV	0.57	0.50	—
Max	38	45	+14
Min	3	10	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	20.81	+4.19
SD	11.89	7.82	11.71
CV	0.48	0.38	—
Max	45	34	+23
Min	7	10	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	25.81	-4.81
SD	6.61	11.48	11.31
CV	0.31	0.44	—
Max	31	51	+14
Min	9	13	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	23.00	-5.75
SD	7.61	9.82	11.09
CV	0.44	0.43	—
Max	31	48	+21
Min	3	3	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.75	28.25	-11.50
SD	9.53	7.95	11.18
CV	0.57	0.28	—
Max	34	44	+6
Min	0	13	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	17.19	+6.62
SD	10.55	12.80	15.54
CV	0.44	0.74	—
Max	38	46	+34
Min	3	0	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	43.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.31	19.31	+12.00
SD	7.67	6.71	10.44
CV	0.24	0.35	—
Max	42	31	+26
Min	16	7	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.12	23.62	-4.50
SD	7.54	11.18	14.00
CV	0.39	0.47	—
Max	28	38	+23
Min	6	3	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.50	19.94	+5.56
SD	8.25	9.13	12.50
CV	0.32	0.46	—
Max	38	37	+34
Min	13	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.38	27.75	-8.38
SD	9.12	7.62	11.89
CV	0.47	0.27	—
Max	39	44	+13
Min	6	12	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.50	21.12	+3.38
SD	9.08	11.03	15.97
CV	0.37	0.52	—
Max	45	50	+26
Min	10	3	-40

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.44	22.69	-2.25
SD	9.65	10.22	14.09
CV	0.47	0.45	—
Max	37	40	+20
Min	7	6	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.06	16.56	+3.50
SD	6.89	10.70	11.76
CV	0.34	0.65	—
Max	31	38	+21
Min	9	0	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	34.75	18.50	+16.25
SD	8.28	10.26	11.47
CV	0.24	0.55	—
Max	50	36	+40
Min	24	3	-3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.06	20.56	+0.50
SD	8.80	9.62	15.41
CV	0.42	0.47	—
Max	40	41	+30
Min	9	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	43.75%	—	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.06	22.44	-3.38
SD	7.81	12.51	13.70
CV	0.41	0.56	—
Max	33	45	+21
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	19.31	-1.38
SD	10.57	10.40	18.25
CV	0.59	0.54	—
Max	34	37	+27
Min	3	0	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.00	16.62	+9.38
SD	10.52	10.16	15.70
CV	0.40	0.61	—
Max	48	36	+38
Min	10	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	22.25	-4.25
SD	6.62	11.36	12.65
CV	0.37	0.51	—
Max	31	44	+17
Min	7	6	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.06	21.50	-11.44
SD	7.04	9.51	13.22
CV	0.70	0.44	—
Max	21	41	+5
Min	0	9	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	37.50%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.44	18.94	-2.50
SD	9.34	8.14	10.81
CV	0.57	0.43	—
Max	31	41	+15
Min	0	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	21.38	-6.31
SD	7.32	10.26	8.55
CV	0.49	0.48	—
Max	38	38	+6
Min	6	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.94	20.50	+9.44
SD	7.06	10.13	14.56
CV	0.24	0.49	—
Max	45	36	+35
Min	19	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.25	19.38	+3.88
SD	9.05	8.33	13.58
CV	0.39	0.43	—
Max	38	32	+38
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

St. Louis Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.81	23.62	-5.81
SD	10.01	9.02	12.19
CV	0.56	0.38	—
Max	34	38	+20
Min	0	10	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.62	18.44	+1.19
SD	9.05	10.35	14.77
CV	0.46	0.56	—
Max	35	31	+35
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Tennessee Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.62	20.00	+0.62
SD	10.79	7.16	11.74
CV	0.52	0.36	—
Max	44	31	+30
Min	3	8	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	6.25%	—	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	26.31	-6.38
SD	9.76	11.84	16.15
CV	0.49	0.45	—
Max	42	45	+25
Min	7	3	-35

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Minnesota Vikings	15	10.75	+4.25
2	Atlanta Falcons	14	9.88	+4.12
3	New York Jets	12	8.84	+3.16
4	Denver Broncos	14	12.15	+1.85
5	Buffalo Bills	10	8.19	+1.81

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	3	5.70	-2.70
2	Cincinnati Bengals	3	5.65	-2.65
3	Indianapolis Colts	3	5.46	-2.46
4	St. Louis Rams	4	6.32	-2.32
5	Carolina Panthers	4	6.09	-2.09

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Oakland Raiders	5	Sep 27 – Nov 1	1 in 84
2	Buffalo Bills	5	Oct 4 – Nov 1	1 in 49
3	Denver Broncos	13	Sep 7 – Dec 6	1 in 41
4	Atlanta Falcons	9	Nov 1 – Dec 27	1 in 39
5	New York Giants	4	Dec 6 – Dec 27	1 in 38

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Nov 26 – Dec 28	1 in 84
2	Kansas City Chiefs	6	Oct 11 – Nov 22	1 in 68
3	Cincinnati Bengals	9	Oct 18 – Dec 13	1 in 40
4	Carolina Panthers	7	Sep 6 – Oct 25	1 in 36
5	Washington Redskins	7	Sep 6 – Oct 18	1 in 23

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Jacksonville Jaguars	50.75%	25.65%	14.09%	7.03%	2.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	24.67%	29.62%	23.28%	15.43%	7.00%
Tennessee Oilers	13.81%	22.25%	26.11%	23.43%	14.40%
Baltimore Ravens	8.40%	16.11%	23.00%	29.45%	23.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.37%	6.37%	13.52%	24.66%	53.08%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Jets	28.45%	26.18%	22.12%	16.75%	6.50%
Miami Dolphins	27.42%	24.34%	22.43%	18.74%	7.07%
New England Patriots	24.36%	24.42%	23.62%	20.09%	7.51%
Buffalo Bills	18.45%	21.61%	23.67%	24.19%	12.08%
Indianapolis Colts	1.32%	3.45%	8.16%	20.23%	66.84%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	84.60%	11.27%	3.20%	0.85%	0.08%
Seattle Seahawks	6.50%	32.82%	29.42%	20.84%	10.42%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.55%	31.68%	29.45%	21.28%	12.04%
Oakland Raiders	2.74%	17.75%	24.07%	31.02%	24.42%
San Diego Chargers	0.61%	6.48%	13.86%	26.01%	53.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Green Bay Packers	47.20%	36.21%	12.23%	3.77%	0.59%
Minnesota Vikings	43.68%	37.98%	13.31%	4.22%	0.81%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.75%	14.50%	36.63%	28.20%	14.92%
Detroit Lions	2.91%	9.06%	26.67%	36.64%	24.72%
Chicago Bears	0.46%	2.25%	11.16%	27.17%	58.96%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	63.38%	21.69%	9.57%	4.16%	1.20%
New York Giants	14.61%	29.03%	26.34%	18.73%	11.29%
Arizona Cardinals	13.75%	26.56%	26.38%	20.46%	12.85%
Washington Redskins	5.79%	14.67%	22.69%	29.39%	27.46%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.47%	8.05%	15.02%	27.26%	47.20%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Francisco 49ers	64.96%	27.42%	5.87%	1.51%	0.24%
Atlanta Falcons	30.13%	48.85%	14.44%	5.07%	1.51%
New Orleans Saints	2.16%	9.20%	29.05%	31.49%	28.10%
St. Louis Rams	1.42%	7.36%	27.03%	31.27%	32.92%
Carolina Panthers	1.33%	7.17%	23.61%	30.66%	37.23%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Denver Broncos	63.32%	17.40%	7.80%	4.04%	2.69%	1.76%	1.28%	0.61%	0.52%	0.27%	0.15%	0.10%	0.05%	0.01%	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.06%	17.74%	16.15%	11.64%	9.39%	8.49%	6.21%	5.38%	5.07%	3.48%	2.58%	2.21%	1.27%	0.83%	0.50%
New York Jets	4.17%	10.96%	11.17%	10.16%	9.48%	9.22%	8.59%	7.63%	6.97%	5.80%	5.06%	4.46%	2.97%	2.20%	1.16%
Miami Dolphins	4.62%	9.77%	10.00%	10.13%	9.09%	8.61%	8.12%	7.95%	7.05%	6.27%	6.18%	5.19%	3.18%	2.52%	1.32%
New England Patriots	3.87%	8.98%	9.29%	9.45%	9.50%	8.67%	8.44%	8.12%	7.60%	7.18%	5.81%	5.43%	3.49%	2.74%	1.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.21%	8.91%	9.35%	9.14%	9.36%	9.57%	8.75%	7.90%	8.04%	6.12%	5.93%	5.42%	3.80%	2.65%	1.85%
Seattle Seahawks	3.16%	4.51%	7.59%	9.03%	9.90%	9.33%	9.29%	8.93%	8.91%	7.87%	6.63%	5.70%	4.35%	3.32%	1.48%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.84%	5.04%	6.46%	9.60%	9.39%	8.83%	9.86%	8.53%	7.61%	8.21%	7.24%	5.59%	4.97%	3.56%	2.27%
Buffalo Bills	2.40%	6.78%	7.74%	7.86%	8.10%	8.15%	8.44%	8.44%	7.76%	7.57%	7.54%	6.89%	5.09%	4.35%	2.89%
Tennessee Oilers	1.37%	4.44%	5.54%	6.07%	7.11%	8.23%	7.90%	8.75%	8.81%	8.74%	8.40%	8.09%	6.92%	5.63%	4.00%
Oakland Raiders	1.12%	1.89%	3.21%	5.17%	5.90%	6.37%	7.24%	8.32%	8.28%	9.41%	9.95%	9.88%	9.84%	7.60%	5.82%
Baltimore Ravens	0.52%	2.59%	3.37%	4.07%	4.96%	5.94%	6.43%	7.08%	8.39%	8.78%	10.11%	10.48%	9.91%	9.52%	7.85%
San Diego Chargers	0.26%	0.42%	0.78%	1.69%	2.21%	2.91%	4.07%	5.40%	5.52%	8.06%	9.28%	10.96%	15.18%	16.79%	16.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%	0.34%	0.99%	1.11%	1.72%	2.45%	3.09%	3.79%	5.49%	6.37%	7.82%	9.89%	13.45%	17.54%	25.89%
Indianapolis Colts	0.02%	0.23%	0.56%	0.84%	1.20%	1.47%	2.29%	3.17%	3.98%	5.87%	7.32%	9.71%	15.53%	20.74%	27.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
San Francisco 49ers	27.69%	22.54%	15.94%	11.47%	9.18%	5.34%	3.02%	2.04%	1.27%	0.61%	0.51%	0.18%	0.16%	0.05%	—
Green Bay Packers	23.47%	17.79%	15.36%	13.87%	10.50%	6.83%	4.92%	2.76%	1.79%	1.32%	0.76%	0.34%	0.19%	0.06%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	21.42%	17.71%	15.78%	14.41%	10.51%	7.23%	5.14%	2.71%	2.10%	1.41%	0.80%	0.39%	0.23%	0.12%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	12.08%	16.58%	18.95%	13.41%	10.92%	8.94%	6.01%	4.32%	3.22%	1.89%	1.72%	0.91%	0.51%	0.38%	0.16%
Atlanta Falcons	9.82%	12.83%	13.48%	14.70%	15.21%	11.27%	6.86%	5.28%	4.00%	2.43%	1.76%	1.01%	0.68%	0.47%	0.20%
New York Giants	1.13%	3.08%	4.56%	6.49%	8.64%	10.83%	10.61%	10.27%	9.52%	8.32%	7.65%	6.83%	5.24%	3.82%	3.01%
Arizona Cardinals	0.85%	2.55%	4.51%	6.18%	7.72%	11.13%	10.13%	10.05%	9.78%	8.72%	7.31%	7.24%	5.95%	4.27%	3.61%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.60%	2.75%	3.65%	6.08%	6.84%	9.18%	11.83%	10.56%	10.18%	9.26%	8.21%	6.88%	5.36%	4.75%	2.87%
Detroit Lions	0.80%	1.16%	2.06%	3.20%	4.51%	6.04%	8.75%	9.39%	9.98%	10.49%	10.98%	9.96%	8.73%	7.45%	6.50%
Washington Redskins	0.37%	0.81%	1.79%	2.63%	4.01%	5.85%	7.09%	8.00%	9.10%	10.06%	9.83%	10.94%	10.89%	9.62%	9.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.81%	1.24%	2.15%	3.51%	5.07%	6.56%	9.02%	9.18%	10.45%	10.67%	10.88%	10.39%	10.01%	9.74%
St. Louis Rams	0.21%	0.48%	0.88%	1.91%	2.94%	3.80%	6.14%	8.40%	9.44%	9.93%	10.38%	10.86%	10.83%	11.39%	12.41%
Carolina Panthers	0.17%	0.48%	0.82%	1.52%	2.47%	3.61%	5.45%	7.15%	8.15%	9.18%	10.72%	11.13%	12.12%	13.40%	13.63%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.04%	0.26%	0.62%	1.14%	1.95%	3.04%	3.99%	5.30%	6.99%	7.84%	9.59%	11.51%	13.42%	16.03%	18.28%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.17%	0.36%	0.84%	1.09%	1.84%	3.50%	4.75%	5.30%	8.09%	9.11%	10.94%	15.30%	18.18%	20.50%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
Denver Broncos	36.24%	22.81%	10.91%	8.58%	4.98%	4.03%	2.73%	1.91%	1.83%	1.20%	1.16%	0.81%	0.72%	0.52%	0.37%	0.27%	0.36%	0.21%	0.06%	0.09%	0.07%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	—	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	14.80%	14.95%	12.77%	10.66%	8.85%	6.66%	5.68%	4.91%	4.43%	3.55%	2.63%	2.25%	1.34%	1.56%	1.11%	0.90%	0.76%	0.56%	0.34%	0.36%	0.28%	0.19%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.10%	0.05%	0.01%	—	—
Green Bay Packers	11.64%	12.71%	11.28%	8.78%	8.62%	7.23%	6.65%	5.43%	4.86%	4.36%	3.50%	3.05%	2.21%	2.19%	1.64%	1.29%	0.97%	0.85%	0.75%	0.52%	0.42%	0.40%	0.18%	0.17%	0.13%	0.06%	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	11.49%	11.56%	11.24%	8.36%	9.15%	7.09%	7.09%	5.80%	5.02%	4.39%	3.44%	3.00%	2.51%	2.05%	1.42%	1.33%	1.17%	0.88%	0.70%	0.69%	0.43%	0.34%	0.23%	0.18%	0.20%	0.12%	0.03%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	6.08%	7.71%	8.82%	9.06%	9.22%	8.01%	6.35%	6.59%	5.42%	4.94%	4.33%	3.92%	2.84%	3.14%	2.29%	1.87%	1.87%	1.51%	1.24%	0.99%	0.80%	0.83%	0.58%	0.53%	0.29%	0.27%	0.20%	0.17%	0.10%	0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	4.62%	6.27%	7.52%	6.91%	7.40%	7.35%	6.95%	6.89%	6.37%	6.74%	4.80%	5.06%	3.17%	3.86%	2.50%	2.70%	1.96%	1.89%	1.53%	1.16%	0.99%	0.80%	0.54%	0.64%	0.37%	0.38%	0.22%	0.17%	0.18%	0.06%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.72%	4.97%	6.68%	8.59%	7.19%	7.94%	6.29%	6.94%	5.76%	4.93%	4.82%	4.01%	3.52%	3.67%	3.36%	2.73%	2.56%	2.06%	1.80%	1.47%	1.60%	1.19%	1.07%	0.88%	0.77%	0.45%	0.43%	0.26%	0.23%	0.11%
New York Jets	1.56%	2.72%	3.81%	5.12%	5.04%	5.73%	5.88%	5.34%	5.18%	5.01%	5.20%	4.84%	4.88%	4.15%	4.44%	3.71%	3.88%	3.30%	3.30%	2.63%	2.51%	2.36%	2.27%	1.59%	1.55%	1.35%	1.13%	0.74%	0.53%	0.25%
Miami Dolphins	1.65%	2.30%	3.73%	4.87%	4.20%	5.69%	5.46%	5.09%	4.73%	5.18%	4.86%	4.68%	4.62%	4.22%	4.57%	3.81%	3.87%	3.33%	3.33%	2.97%	3.35%	2.46%	2.42%	2.18%	1.71%	1.45%	1.31%	0.95%	0.59%	0.42%
New England Patriots	1.56%	2.10%	3.36%	4.13%	4.61%	4.74%	4.85%	4.91%	5.15%	4.89%	5.28%	4.49%	4.78%	4.09%	4.56%	4.26%	4.09%	3.49%	3.67%	3.67%	3.19%	2.56%	2.69%	1.99%	1.68%	1.78%	1.27%	0.94%	0.77%	0.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.08%	1.99%	3.49%	3.89%	4.48%	4.78%	4.88%	4.71%	4.78%	5.05%	5.32%	4.77%	4.63%	4.41%	4.65%	4.31%	4.28%	3.61%	3.39%	3.23%	3.21%	2.80%	2.57%	2.17%	1.83%	1.70%	1.54%	1.03%	0.80%	0.62%
Seattle Seahawks	1.06%	1.64%	1.90%	2.61%	3.29%	4.12%	4.29%	5.00%	4.83%	5.30%	5.06%	5.11%	5.07%	4.37%	5.25%	4.56%	5.01%	3.95%	4.27%	3.76%	3.54%	2.85%	2.84%	2.31%	2.28%	1.78%	1.60%	1.15%	0.80%	0.40%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.90%	1.53%	2.21%	2.69%	3.31%	3.35%	4.74%	4.53%	5.10%	4.74%	5.11%	4.38%	5.71%	4.46%	4.79%	4.05%	4.58%	3.94%	4.25%	3.74%	4.28%	2.85%	2.74%	2.41%	2.62%	1.91%	1.85%	1.47%	1.10%	0.66%
Buffalo Bills	0.79%	1.47%	2.48%	3.25%	3.29%	4.20%	3.86%	4.17%	4.39%	4.35%	4.51%	4.52%	4.82%	4.31%	4.58%	4.14%	4.37%	3.76%	4.01%	3.77%	3.75%	3.71%	3.49%	2.95%	2.55%	2.22%	2.07%	1.83%	1.39%	1.00%
New York Giants	0.40%	0.68%	1.60%	1.75%	2.57%	2.20%	3.17%	3.25%	4.04%	4.09%	4.58%	5.23%	4.71%	5.42%	4.24%	5.19%	4.17%	5.27%	3.96%	4.47%	3.73%	4.31%	3.69%	3.62%	3.12%	3.04%	2.14%	2.21%	1.69%	1.46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.55%	0.93%	1.74%	1.55%	2.05%	2.33%	3.05%	3.29%	3.56%	3.51%	4.27%	4.45%	4.89%	5.47%	4.54%	5.10%	5.09%	4.92%	4.38%	4.55%	3.95%	4.17%	3.86%	3.59%	2.95%	3.05%	2.53%	2.42%	1.89%	1.37%
Tennessee Oilers	0.47%	0.85%	1.29%	2.05%	2.32%	2.97%	2.97%	3.42%	3.93%	3.77%	4.16%	3.99%	4.63%	4.28%	4.64%	4.35%	4.79%	4.63%	4.81%	4.41%	4.29%	3.96%	4.18%	3.85%	3.71%	2.65%	2.80%	2.53%	1.96%	1.34%
Arizona Cardinals	0.26%	0.79%	1.23%	1.60%	2.12%	2.66%	2.74%	3.53%	3.46%	4.19%	4.55%	5.18%	4.34%	5.06%	4.94%	4.98%	4.20%	5.09%	4.15%	4.38%	3.72%	3.92%	3.92%	3.71%	3.23%	3.28%	2.74%	2.32%	2.11%	1.60%
Oakland Raiders	0.26%	0.50%	0.73%	1.23%	1.35%	1.81%	2.23%	2.85%	2.70%	3.27%	3.78%	3.38%	4.24%	3.53%	4.53%	4.33%	4.92%	4.14%	5.11%	4.02%	5.67%	4.68%	5.51%	4.41%	4.48%	4.23%	3.93%	2.92%	3.04%	2.22%
Baltimore Ravens	0.22%	0.34%	0.66%	1.20%	1.23%	1.99%	1.92%	2.14%	2.53%	2.78%	2.67%	3.66%	3.49%	3.46%	3.88%	3.90%	4.54%	4.16%	4.77%	4.68%	5.17%	5.05%	4.90%	5.24%	5.42%	4.08%	4.49%	4.25%	3.83%	3.35%
Detroit Lions	0.25%	0.34%	0.75%	0.80%	1.11%	1.07%	1.68%	1.84%	2.26%	2.26%	2.84%	3.13%	3.72%	4.13%	4.36%	4.35%	4.67%	4.86%	4.39%	5.60%	4.87%	5.72%	4.49%	5.77%	4.58%	4.73%	4.19%	4.22%	3.70%	3.32%
Washington Redskins	0.13%	0.23%	0.35%	0.47%	0.83%	0.99%	1.12%	1.41%	1.82%	2.08%	2.03%	3.33%	3.02%	3.67%	3.09%	3.87%	3.73%	5.21%	4.43%	5.06%	4.39%	5.63%	4.78%	6.18%	5.32%	6.47%	5.22%	5.18%	5.01%	4.95%
New Orleans Saints	0.08%	0.23%	0.41%	0.40%	0.72%	0.63%	1.10%	1.15%	1.77%	1.74%	2.37%	2.72%	2.81%	3.23%	3.47%	4.29%	4.06%	4.89%	4.56%	5.07%	4.81%	5.79%	4.98%	5.86%	5.29%	5.62%	5.48%	5.69%	5.30%	5.48%
St. Louis Rams	0.06%	0.13%	0.24%	0.32%	0.53%	0.43%	1.03%	1.04%	1.30%	1.54%	1.82%	2.26%	2.51%	2.96%	3.35%	4.04%	3.44%	4.94%	4.63%	5.02%	4.44%	5.72%	5.54%	5.59%	5.33%	6.29%	6.04%	6.33%	6.50%	6.63%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.11%	0.27%	0.28%	0.41%	0.47%	0.85%	0.70%	1.20%	1.40%	1.57%	1.70%	2.21%	2.61%	2.81%	3.70%	3.09%	4.49%	3.83%	5.02%	4.09%	5.96%	4.91%	6.46%	5.57%	6.93%	6.41%	7.77%	7.16%	8.01%
San Diego Chargers	0.08%	0.06%	0.20%	0.25%	0.36%	0.36%	0.62%	1.02%	1.10%	1.21%	1.41%	1.64%	2.47%	2.17%	2.89%	2.83%	3.14%	3.30%	4.50%	4.24%	5.56%	4.49%	5.94%	5.17%	7.47%	6.96%	7.95%	7.17%	8.02%	7.42%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.02%	0.12%	0.15%	0.26%	0.33%	0.46%	0.68%	0.75%	1.05%	1.01%	1.55%	1.76%	2.11%	2.27%	2.56%	2.85%	3.25%	3.61%	4.00%	4.28%	4.77%	5.47%	6.15%	6.25%	7.22%	7.88%	9.29%	8.98%	10.91%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.02%	0.11%	0.16%	0.27%	0.38%	0.59%	0.62%	0.72%	1.05%	1.15%	1.18%	1.87%	1.79%	1.98%	2.31%	2.80%	2.72%	3.67%	3.30%	4.39%	3.83%	5.36%	5.09%	6.88%	6.47%	8.55%	8.63%	11.55%	12.53%
Chicago Bears	—	0.03%	0.05%	0.17%	0.09%	0.24%	0.47%	0.34%	0.58%	0.66%	0.93%	0.91%	1.29%	1.83%	1.82%	2.45%	2.37%	2.70%	3.33%	4.04%	3.83%	4.64%	5.23%	5.81%	6.65%	8.18%	8.38%	10.17%	10.64%	12.17%
Indianapolis Colts	—	0.01%	0.05%	0.12%	0.15%	0.22%	0.30%	0.50%	0.43%	0.77%	0.84%	0.80%	1.22%	1.28%	1.66%	1.82%	2.41%	2.09%	3.23%	3.09%	4.39%	3.99%	5.43%	5.39%	7.68%	7.21%	9.51%	10.10%	12.10%	13.21%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Denver Broncos	63.32%	15.89%	5.39%	7.41%	3.11%	1.84%	3.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.06%	19.88%	21.81%	6.81%	7.41%	7.89%	27.14%
Miami Dolphins	4.62%	10.98%	11.82%	7.35%	8.81%	8.69%	47.73%
New York Jets	4.17%	12.01%	12.27%	8.24%	9.19%	9.18%	44.94%
New England Patriots	3.87%	10.03%	10.46%	7.62%	9.08%	8.64%	50.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.21%	9.73%	11.73%	7.15%	8.70%	9.18%	50.30%
Seattle Seahawks	3.16%	2.03%	1.31%	15.13%	11.85%	9.77%	56.75%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.84%	1.88%	0.83%	15.97%	10.78%	9.59%	58.11%
Buffalo Bills	2.40%	7.67%	8.38%	6.59%	7.93%	8.01%	59.02%
Tennessee Oilers	1.37%	5.07%	7.37%	4.32%	6.91%	7.87%	67.09%
Oakland Raiders	1.12%	0.90%	0.72%	7.38%	6.62%	6.79%	76.47%
Baltimore Ravens	0.52%	3.00%	4.88%	2.85%	4.48%	5.83%	78.44%
San Diego Chargers	0.26%	0.17%	0.18%	2.01%	2.55%	3.05%	91.78%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%	0.44%	1.87%	0.69%	1.50%	2.25%	93.19%
Indianapolis Colts	0.02%	0.32%	0.98%	0.48%	1.08%	1.42%	95.70%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	27.69%	24.02%	13.25%	11.34%	10.24%	5.59%	7.87%
Green Bay Packers	23.47%	15.97%	7.76%	20.89%	12.34%	7.27%	12.30%
Minnesota Vikings	21.42%	15.32%	6.94%	22.69%	12.84%	7.80%	12.99%
Dallas Cowboys	12.08%	18.58%	32.72%	3.76%	6.40%	7.72%	18.74%
Atlanta Falcons	9.82%	12.43%	7.88%	17.56%	17.94%	11.58%	22.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.60%	2.44%	1.71%	6.71%	7.42%	9.95%	70.17%
New York Giants	1.13%	3.52%	9.96%	3.35%	6.90%	10.14%	65.00%
Arizona Cardinals	0.85%	3.09%	9.81%	2.98%	6.12%	10.30%	66.85%
Detroit Lions	0.80%	1.03%	1.08%	3.40%	4.80%	6.50%	82.39%
Washington Redskins	0.37%	1.07%	4.35%	1.14%	3.28%	5.40%	84.39%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.95%	0.89%	1.96%	3.59%	5.27%	87.02%
St. Louis Rams	0.21%	0.55%	0.66%	1.54%	3.11%	4.05%	89.88%
Carolina Panthers	0.17%	0.50%	0.66%	1.48%	2.41%	3.76%	91.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.04%	0.35%	2.08%	0.55%	1.39%	2.75%	92.84%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.18%	0.25%	0.65%	1.22%	1.92%	95.75%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	93.31%	93.31%	72.84%	53.61%	28.12%
Minnesota Vikings	73.35%	73.35%	50.10%	32.97%	20.78%
San Francisco 49ers	75.93%	75.93%	43.11%	20.59%	10.39%
Atlanta Falcons	56.14%	56.14%	32.50%	17.02%	9.66%
Green Bay Packers	67.87%	67.87%	34.35%	17.09%	8.06%
New York Jets	43.46%	43.46%	25.93%	12.76%	6.41%
Jacksonville Jaguars	56.94%	56.94%	28.57%	11.06%	4.41%
Dallas Cowboys	60.81%	60.81%	23.84%	8.50%	3.49%
Miami Dolphins	36.67%	36.30%	16.97%	6.10%	2.08%
Buffalo Bills	30.91%	26.50%	11.16%	3.85%	1.49%
New England Patriots	35.80%	31.24%	12.76%	3.89%	1.36%
Seattle Seahawks	38.06%	23.19%	7.08%	2.29%	0.83%
Kansas City Chiefs	37.17%	20.20%	5.45%	1.85%	0.57%
Tennessee Oilers	26.47%	18.62%	6.32%	1.90%	0.52%
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.76%	27.92%	8.57%	1.74%	0.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25.79%	13.71%	4.23%	1.30%	0.47%
New York Giants	30.35%	16.42%	4.32%	1.07%	0.40%
Oakland Raiders	21.51%	8.63%	1.79%	0.50%	0.13%
Arizona Cardinals	29.21%	12.74%	2.88%	0.62%	0.12%
Baltimore Ravens	18.04%	8.86%	1.93%	0.35%	0.08%
Washington Redskins	14.17%	5.64%	1.20%	0.27%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	15.78%	5.69%	1.24%	0.22%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	4.04%	1.06%	0.17%	0.04%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	11.71%	4.15%	0.89%	0.18%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.31%	1.62%	0.23%	0.03%	0.01%
St. Louis Rams	9.36%	2.38%	0.51%	0.06%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers	8.31%	2.71%	0.54%	0.07%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	3.96%	1.03%	0.13%	0.04%	—
Philadelphia Eagles	6.77%	1.40%	0.12%	—	—
San Diego Chargers	7.79%	2.18%	0.27%	0.03%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Oilers
Baltimore Ravens		0.45%	0.09%	0.05%	0.10%	0.57%	0.70%	0.43%	0.43%	0.34%	0.39%	0.60%	0.23%	0.60%	0.36%
Buffalo Bills	1.18%		0.29%	0.29%	0.19%	1.64%	2.00%	1.33%	1.57%	1.03%	1.30%	1.76%	0.71%	2.06%	1.08%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.05%	0.13%		0.01%	0.01%	0.09%	0.19%	0.12%	0.09%	0.11%	0.08%	0.08%	0.02%	0.09%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	0.88%	1.09%	0.36%		0.15%	1.20%	1.15%	1.44%	1.52%	1.27%	0.90%	1.45%	0.37%	1.24%	1.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.11%	0.04%	0.07%	0.03%	0.12%	0.07%	0.04%	0.07%	0.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.00%	2.16%	0.87%	0.41%	0.42%		3.30%	2.33%	2.36%	1.74%	2.34%	3.81%	0.89%	2.93%	2.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.07%	1.45%	0.46%	0.26%	0.28%	1.61%		1.47%	1.79%	1.01%	0.78%	2.44%	0.26%	1.27%	1.33%
Miami Dolphins	1.30%	1.58%	0.61%	0.44%	0.46%	1.59%	2.91%		1.94%	1.37%	1.85%	1.93%	0.78%	2.61%	1.33%
New England Patriots	1.18%	1.18%	0.36%	0.42%	0.26%	1.38%	2.24%	1.56%		1.24%	1.69%	1.99%	0.64%	1.94%	1.26%
New York Jets	1.40%	1.88%	0.73%	0.66%	0.31%	2.34%	3.36%	2.51%	2.85%		2.17%	2.93%	0.73%	3.33%	2.08%
Oakland Raiders	0.37%	0.55%	0.18%	0.11%	0.16%	0.70%	0.60%	0.69%	0.89%	0.40%		1.04%	0.09%	0.38%	0.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.93%	1.13%	0.45%	0.28%	0.30%	1.68%	1.83%	1.07%	1.53%	0.81%	1.30%		0.62%	1.94%	1.11%
San Diego Chargers	0.15%	0.11%	0.10%	0.09%	0.05%	0.17%	0.08%	0.20%	0.18%	0.11%	0.07%	0.16%		0.11%	0.17%
Seattle Seahawks	1.42%	1.89%	0.50%	0.30%	0.33%	1.70%	1.66%	1.69%	2.00%	1.41%	0.96%	2.31%	0.32%		1.51%
Tennessee Oilers	0.72%	0.86%	0.18%	0.32%	0.25%	1.24%	1.56%	1.09%	1.24%	0.73%	0.95%	1.21%	0.34%	1.49%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.56%	0.39%	0.25%	2.03%	0.60%	0.82%	0.40%	0.55%	0.71%	0.37%	0.56%	0.35%	0.69%	0.52%
Atlanta Falcons	2.77%		0.64%	0.55%	3.30%	2.44%	6.49%	4.95%	0.91%	2.76%	0.72%	2.75%	0.81%	3.44%	1.36%
Carolina Panthers	0.31%	0.13%		0.04%	0.27%	0.12%	0.24%	0.11%	0.03%	0.27%	0.08%	0.17%	0.01%	0.19%	0.07%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.07%	0.06%		0.18%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%	0.07%	0.06%	0.08%	0.03%	0.07%
Dallas Cowboys	4.94%	2.39%	1.04%	0.72%		2.02%	2.02%	1.77%	1.53%	4.38%	1.44%	1.22%	1.39%	2.86%	2.43%
Detroit Lions	0.40%	0.34%	0.08%	0.04%	0.59%		0.35%	0.23%	0.28%	0.41%	0.17%	0.29%	0.19%	0.26%	0.23%
Green Bay Packers	2.88%	4.90%	1.12%	0.31%	2.86%	1.43%		1.60%	1.37%	2.88%	0.69%	3.66%	1.38%	1.93%	1.42%
Minnesota Vikings	3.13%	7.40%	1.28%	0.42%	3.56%	1.67%	2.57%		1.75%	3.27%	0.89%	5.07%	1.48%	2.46%	1.66%
New Orleans Saints	0.27%	0.21%	0.04%	0.03%	0.44%	0.28%	0.41%	0.18%		0.29%	0.07%	0.14%	0.06%	0.25%	0.21%
New York Giants	1.22%	1.03%	0.53%	0.23%	2.59%	0.80%	1.24%	0.57%	0.55%		0.32%	0.75%	0.42%	0.99%	0.53%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.11%	0.07%	0.04%		0.17%	0.04%	0.08%	0.03%	0.09%	0.14%		0.07%	0.06%	0.08%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	2.38%	2.46%	0.59%	0.49%	1.70%	1.77%	4.00%	2.72%	1.11%	2.14%	0.52%		0.92%	2.42%	1.00%
St. Louis Rams	0.15%	0.13%	0.01%	0.02%	0.23%	0.11%	0.15%	0.13%	0.03%	0.24%	0.06%	0.10%		0.13%	0.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.35%	1.14%	0.28%	0.03%	1.66%	0.36%	1.12%	0.74%	0.35%	0.68%	0.27%	1.03%	0.35%		0.31%
Washington Redskins	0.47%	0.24%	0.17%	0.06%	0.87%	0.27%	0.31%	0.19%	0.25%	0.32%	0.09%	0.33%	0.24%	0.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Oilers
Baltimore Ravens		0.18%	0.01%	0.23%		0.18%	0.12%	0.34%	0.34%	0.21%	0.05%	0.11%	0.02%	0.07%	0.07%
Buffalo Bills	0.63%		0.16%	1.81%	0.04%	2.36%	0.58%	0.75%	0.63%	0.76%	0.21%	1.48%	0.06%	0.60%	1.09%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.01%		0.03%			0.02%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%		0.01%
Denver Broncos	2.33%	6.15%	0.47%		0.25%	8.80%	8.56%	7.02%	6.59%	7.68%	3.64%	6.11%	0.99%	9.40%	4.85%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.01%					0.01%	0.03%		0.02%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.57%	3.47%	0.06%	3.29%	0.30%		1.57%	4.46%	4.28%	4.33%	0.83%	2.19%	0.21%	1.79%	1.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.21%	0.30%	0.02%	1.94%	0.01%	0.73%		0.58%	0.44%	0.23%	0.06%	0.38%	0.01%	0.31%	0.23%
Miami Dolphins	0.89%	0.87%	0.15%	2.32%	0.02%	3.91%	0.89%		1.28%	1.08%	0.43%	2.52%	0.13%	0.98%	1.50%
New England Patriots	0.74%	0.57%	0.15%	1.46%	0.04%	3.45%	0.69%	1.04%		0.75%	0.34%	1.78%	0.12%	0.74%	0.89%
New York Jets	1.07%	1.48%	0.27%	4.51%	0.02%	6.15%	1.18%	1.93%	1.99%		0.61%	3.49%	0.19%	1.27%	1.77%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.15%		0.44%	0.02%	0.29%	0.14%	0.12%	0.17%	0.15%		0.15%		0.09%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.16%	1.07%	0.03%	1.04%	0.09%	0.97%	0.39%	1.24%	1.20%	1.14%	0.29%		0.11%	0.55%	0.29%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.01%		0.08%		0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%		0.03%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.20%	0.38%	0.06%	2.31%	0.03%	0.83%	0.30%	0.73%	0.63%	0.45%	0.15%	0.66%	0.04%		0.31%
Tennessee Oilers	0.08%	0.69%	0.01%	1.00%	0.08%	0.66%	0.29%	1.05%	0.87%	0.73%	0.17%	0.39%	0.03%	0.27%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.51%	0.05%	0.03%	0.27%	0.04%	0.53%	0.42%	0.06%	0.07%	0.01%	0.78%	0.03%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	1.53%		0.17%	0.05%	7.23%	0.55%	4.90%	4.45%	0.35%	1.81%	0.19%	9.06%	0.18%	1.10%	0.93%
Carolina Panthers	0.04%	0.05%			0.06%	0.01%	0.11%	0.08%		0.04%	0.01%	0.11%		0.02%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.01%				0.02%		0.02%	0.01%		0.04%		0.04%		0.01%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.85%	3.90%	0.38%	0.13%		0.82%	4.86%	3.08%	0.67%	1.04%	0.12%	6.00%	0.35%	1.39%	0.25%
Detroit Lions	0.09%	0.12%	0.02%	0.01%	0.20%		0.22%	0.16%		0.07%	0.01%	0.20%	0.03%	0.08%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	1.98%	4.27%	0.42%	0.12%	7.07%	0.65%		8.08%	0.60%	2.21%	0.24%	5.42%	0.38%	2.09%	0.82%
Minnesota Vikings	2.14%	6.08%	0.55%	0.27%	9.48%	0.94%	14.68%		0.68%	3.11%	0.24%	8.51%	0.32%	2.20%	0.90%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.04%		0.01%	0.25%	0.02%	0.07%	0.07%		0.13%	0.01%	0.24%			0.01%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.63%	0.04%	0.03%	0.61%	0.13%	0.71%	0.67%	0.08%			1.12%	0.04%	0.16%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%			0.06%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	2.82%	7.44%	0.49%	0.23%	10.51%	1.20%	6.28%	5.54%	0.75%	3.36%	0.41%		0.49%	2.27%	1.32%
St. Louis Rams	0.05%	0.05%			0.13%		0.09%	0.05%		0.02%	0.01%	0.08%		0.01%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.22%	0.42%	0.04%	0.01%	0.97%	0.05%	0.73%	0.50%	0.02%	0.19%	0.02%	0.92%	0.05%		0.09%
Washington Redskins	0.03%	0.13%			0.16%	0.03%	0.31%	0.14%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.28%		0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Oilers
Baltimore Ravens		0.03%		0.14%		0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%		0.05%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%			1.49%		0.57%	0.24%	0.33%	0.26%	0.25%	0.08%	0.19%	0.01%	0.26%	0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals				0.01%				0.01%						0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.04%	5.01%	0.08%		0.06%	12.35%	1.22%	7.60%	6.33%	9.63%	0.55%	4.58%	0.06%	2.13%	2.97%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%			0.02%		0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.11%	0.64%	0.01%	5.22%	0.01%		0.58%	0.79%	0.60%	1.35%	0.20%	0.38%	0.04%	0.80%	0.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%	0.18%	0.01%	0.30%	0.01%	0.34%		0.23%	0.22%	0.25%		0.10%		0.06%	0.12%
Miami Dolphins	0.04%	0.22%	0.03%	2.66%		0.88%	0.28%		0.26%	0.49%	0.15%	0.39%	0.04%	0.44%	0.22%
New England Patriots	0.08%	0.14%	0.01%	1.59%		0.47%	0.30%	0.26%		0.37%	0.04%	0.25%	0.01%	0.29%	0.08%
New York Jets	0.12%	0.71%	0.04%	5.69%	0.01%	2.01%	0.60%	0.96%	0.67%		0.21%	0.57%	0.04%	0.66%	0.47%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.02%		0.13%		0.09%		0.04%	0.04%	0.09%		0.06%			0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.11%		0.70%		0.20%	0.12%	0.18%	0.09%	0.18%	0.03%		0.02%	0.06%	0.03%
San Diego Chargers				0.01%				0.01%		0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.07%	0.16%	0.01%	0.49%		0.36%	0.09%	0.26%	0.26%	0.36%		0.17%	0.01%		0.05%
Tennessee Oilers	0.01%	0.09%	0.01%	0.78%		0.22%	0.15%	0.19%	0.11%	0.14%	0.03%	0.09%		0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.08%	0.01%		0.03%		0.20%	0.08%	0.01%	0.04%		0.15%		0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	0.36%		0.04%	0.03%	2.69%	0.21%	4.33%	4.82%	0.06%	0.54%	0.02%	3.10%	0.06%	0.58%	0.18%
Carolina Panthers		0.01%			0.02%			0.02%		0.01%					0.01%
Chicago Bears		0.01%			0.02%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.10%	1.68%	0.05%	0.01%		0.15%	1.82%	1.99%	0.10%	0.11%	0.02%	2.06%	0.05%	0.33%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	0.01%	0.01%			0.05%		0.01%	0.04%		0.01%		0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.47%	3.86%	0.13%	0.02%	2.80%	0.11%		2.78%	0.16%	0.58%	0.01%	5.62%	0.12%	0.33%	0.10%
Minnesota Vikings	0.84%	6.86%	0.13%	0.03%	6.22%	0.24%	4.91%		0.25%	1.27%	0.06%	10.87%	0.16%	0.74%	0.39%
New Orleans Saints		0.01%			0.03%	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%				0.03%
New York Giants		0.19%	0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.02%	0.26%	0.22%	0.01%			0.21%		0.06%
San Francisco 49ers	0.45%	2.53%	0.09%	0.03%	3.20%	0.26%	5.44%	6.77%	0.10%	0.61%	0.01%		0.04%	0.86%	0.20%
St. Louis Rams					0.02%		0.01%	0.01%				0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.19%	0.01%		0.16%	0.02%	0.17%	0.30%	0.02%	0.06%		0.32%	0.01%		0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.05%			0.02%		0.05%	0.05%		0.02%		0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Oilers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals									0.08%				0.01%							0.03%
Atlanta Falcons			0.03%	0.52%			0.02%		4.52%				1.09%	0.25%	0.81%		0.53%			1.16%	0.06%	0.19%	0.01%		0.25%			0.22%
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%						0.01%			0.01%					0.01%		0.01%	0.01%					0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.19%						0.18%			0.27%					0.38%		0.01%	0.03%					0.33%		0.01%	0.06%		0.01%
Carolina Panthers									0.01%
Chicago Bears				0.01%					0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals											0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.05%	0.17%					1.56%			0.01%	0.52%	0.14%	0.27%		0.16%			0.38%	0.02%	0.07%			0.10%			0.04%
Denver Broncos	0.29%	4.35%			0.04%			2.99%		0.12%	5.41%					7.65%		0.08%	0.48%					6.05%		0.02%	0.48%		0.16%
Detroit Lions									0.02%				0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.05%	0.34%					3.54%				1.19%	0.21%	0.57%		0.47%			0.96%	0.08%	0.23%			0.20%			0.22%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.08%	0.78%						0.44%		0.01%	0.91%					1.04%		0.02%	0.01%					1.05%			0.06%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.12%						0.08%		0.01%	0.13%					0.15%			0.01%					0.07%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%	0.32%			0.01%	0.01%		0.23%		0.02%	0.40%					0.47%		0.03%						0.54%		0.01%	0.01%		0.02%
Minnesota Vikings			0.08%	0.84%					10.35%			0.01%	2.53%	0.34%	1.56%		0.85%			2.41%	0.13%	0.46%	0.01%		0.61%			0.60%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.22%			0.01%	0.01%		0.13%			0.26%					0.33%			0.03%					0.32%		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints																				0.01%
New York Giants			0.01%	0.03%					0.18%				0.05%	0.02%	0.04%					0.05%		0.01%						0.01%
New York Jets	0.04%	0.96%						0.73%		0.02%	1.24%					1.71%		0.02%	0.08%					1.45%			0.15%		0.01%
Oakland Raiders		0.02%						0.02%			0.04%					0.02%								0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.14%						0.04%		0.01%	0.08%					0.10%			0.01%					0.11%
San Francisco 49ers			0.05%	0.43%					4.94%			0.02%	1.20%	0.32%	0.73%		0.50%			1.28%	0.08%	0.27%	0.01%		0.28%			0.28%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	0.15%						0.08%			0.16%					0.23%								0.16%			0.04%
St. Louis Rams																				0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers				0.02%					0.25%				0.04%		0.03%		0.02%			0.06%		0.02%			0.02%			0.01%
Tennessee Oilers	0.03%	0.10%						0.08%			0.11%					0.10%			0.01%					0.07%			0.02%
Washington Redskins									0.03%				0.01%		0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	77.89%	57.14%	32.93%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	100.00%	78.65%	54.59%	26.88%	Won Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	75.07%	27.29%	14.02%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New York Jets	100.00%	73.03%	30.14%	13.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	64.55%	16.82%	6.49%	3.13%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Jacksonville Jaguars	71.90%	20.09%	6.75%	2.45%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	79.21%	18.25%	4.94%	2.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	35.45%	9.94%	3.78%	1.83%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins	65.87%	14.60%	4.51%	1.60%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	34.13%	7.97%	2.52%	0.96%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New England Patriots	28.10%	5.66%	1.49%	0.39%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Arizona Cardinals	20.79%	2.03%	0.36%	0.04%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills			34.13%
Jacksonville Jaguars				71.90%
Miami Dolphins	65.87%
New England Patriots		28.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals		20.79%
Dallas Cowboys	79.21%
Green Bay Packers				35.45%
San Francisco 49ers			64.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Buffalo Bills		5.54%				2.43%
Denver Broncos	18.72%			37.49%	22.44%
Jacksonville Jaguars						20.09%
Miami Dolphins		10.15%				4.45%
New England Patriots		5.66%
New York Jets	7.44%		51.81%	13.78%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals					2.03%
Atlanta Falcons			60.96%	4.99%		9.12%
Dallas Cowboys		18.25%
Green Bay Packers		2.72%			7.22%
Minnesota Vikings	18.76%			20.52%		38.61%
San Francisco 49ers		3.96%			12.86%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Buffalo Bills		0.53%	0.55%		0.28%	1.16%
Denver Broncos	1.52%		11.92%	2.59%		38.56%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.93%	4.07%		1.75%
Miami Dolphins		0.83%	0.87%		0.71%	2.10%
New England Patriots	0.10%			0.32%		1.07%
New York Jets	2.90%	18.63%		5.43%	3.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals		0.26%		0.04%		0.06%
Atlanta Falcons	1.19%			3.41%	16.62%	6.07%
Dallas Cowboys				0.95%	2.53%	1.46%
Green Bay Packers	0.18%	2.20%	0.66%		0.74%
Minnesota Vikings		41.57%	11.07%	1.76%		2.74%
San Francisco 49ers	0.30%	3.75%	1.58%		0.86%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals					0.04%
Atlanta Falcons			0.35%		7.21%		1.10%	0.82%		0.35%	4.19%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%	0.31%		0.07%		0.05%			0.44%			0.08%
Dallas Cowboys			0.07%		0.97%		0.17%	0.11%		0.04%	0.64%
Denver Broncos	0.17%	7.69%		1.57%		1.10%			14.30%			2.05%
Green Bay Packers			0.09%		0.97%		0.17%	0.10%		0.01%	0.49%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.04%	0.73%		0.21%		0.09%			1.18%			0.20%
Miami Dolphins	0.03%	0.54%		0.12%		0.06%			0.74%			0.11%
Minnesota Vikings			0.98%		16.84%		2.66%	1.67%		0.64%	10.14%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.12%		0.03%		0.02%			0.20%			0.01%
New York Jets	0.06%	3.88%		0.94%		0.63%			7.35%			0.91%
San Francisco 49ers			0.07%		1.68%		0.20%	0.21%		0.06%	0.91%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Minnesota Vikings 32.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

49.57%

Win Prob

75.01%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

72.75%

Win Prob

71.44%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

51.14%

Win Prob

54.08%

Denver Broncos 26.88% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

47.67%

Win Prob

78.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

70.64%

Win Prob

67.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

53.20%

Win Prob

45.92%

Atlanta Falcons 14.02% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

81.20%

Win Prob

76.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

60.90%

Win Prob

28.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

51.43%

Win Prob

48.39%

New York Jets 13.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

70.94%

Win Prob

72.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

61.81%

Win Prob

32.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

53.38%

Win Prob

42.02%

San Francisco 49ers 3.13% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.55%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

76.46%

Win Prob

24.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

57.78%

Win Prob

38.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

53.67%

Win Prob

45.04%

Jacksonville Jaguars 2.45% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

60.30%

Win Prob

25.45%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

48.16%

Win Prob

30.73%

Dallas Cowboys 2.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

79.21%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.04%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

51.21%

Win Prob

18.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

48.50%

Win Prob

38.19%

Green Bay Packers 1.83% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.45%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

72.64%

Win Prob

26.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

58.20%

Win Prob

39.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

53.01%

Win Prob

46.86%

Miami Dolphins 1.60% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.87%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

69.52%

Win Prob

21.31%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

46.56%

Win Prob

27.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

46.25%

Win Prob

30.71%

Buffalo Bills 0.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.13%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

69.51%

Win Prob

22.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

46.03%

Win Prob

28.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

45.83%

Win Prob

30.99%

New England Patriots 0.39% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

20.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

71.81%

Win Prob

25.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

51.28%

Win Prob

23.81%

Arizona Cardinals 0.04% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

20.79%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

9.76%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

72.22%

Win Prob

17.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

19.05%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1998-09-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1440.10	1487.46	30.88%	68.90%	-25.98	0-1
1998-09-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-33	1414.12	1560.31	20.19%	79.60%	-14.00	0-2
1998-09-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-3	1400.12	1407.33	61.83%	37.96%	+22.57	1-2
1998-09-27	@ St. Louis Rams	W 20-17	1422.69	1425.03	36.67%	63.12%	+17.36	2-2
1998-10-04	Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1440.05	1446.55	61.93%	37.86%	-17.03	2-3
1998-10-11	Chicago Bears	W 20-7	1423.02	1417.92	63.48%	36.30%	+20.80	3-3
1998-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 7-34	1443.82	1449.92	36.17%	63.62%	-29.87	3-4
1998-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-15	1413.95	1457.81	31.32%	68.47%	+15.38	4-4
1998-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 29-27	1429.33	1379.01	69.26%	30.52%	+6.86	5-4
1998-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-35	1436.19	1610.27	38.28%	61.51%	-16.10	5-5
1998-11-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-42	1420.09	1398.92	39.87%	59.92%	+16.48	6-5
1998-11-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-34	1436.57	1475.77	31.90%	67.89%	-16.03	6-6
1998-12-06	New York Giants	L 19-23	1420.54	1416.92	63.29%	36.50%	-20.10	6-7
1998-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1400.44	1310.73	49.59%	50.20%	+13.81	7-7
1998-12-20	New Orleans Saints	W 19-17	1414.25	1443.98	58.73%	41.05%	+9.23	8-7
1998-12-27	San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1423.48	1337.76	73.41%	26.38%	+7.26	9-7
1998-09-06	@ Carolina Panthers	W 19-14	1474.27	1490.68	34.81%	64.97%	+23.07	1-0
1998-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-12	1497.34	1416.92	72.81%	26.98%	+9.59	2-0
1998-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-31	1506.93	1613.95	24.07%	75.72%	-12.69	2-1
1998-10-04	Carolina Panthers	W 51-23	1494.24	1439.50	69.80%	29.99%	+25.22	3-1
1998-10-11	@ New York Giants	W 34-20	1519.46	1484.37	41.80%	57.98%	+34.45	4-1
1998-10-18	New Orleans Saints	W 31-23	1553.91	1444.16	76.00%	23.78%	+10.70	5-1
1998-10-25	@ New York Jets	L 3-28	1564.61	1508.09	44.83%	54.96%	-35.61	5-2
1998-11-01	St. Louis Rams	W 37-15	1529.00	1406.10	77.35%	22.44%	+16.73	6-2
1998-11-08	@ New England Patriots	W 41-10	1545.73	1578.94	32.65%	67.14%	+59.36	7-2
1998-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-19	1605.09	1644.98	57.31%	42.48%	+23.38	8-2
1998-11-22	Chicago Bears	W 20-13	1628.47	1373.08	87.90%	11.89%	+5.00	9-2
1998-11-29	@ St. Louis Rams	W 21-10	1633.47	1372.07	72.51%	27.28%	+14.39	10-2
1998-12-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-21	1647.86	1321.54	91.55%	8.23%	+3.46	11-2
1998-12-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-17	1651.32	1462.20	63.53%	36.25%	+18.22	12-2
1998-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1669.54	1463.31	65.78%	34.01%	+14.30	13-2
1998-12-27	Miami Dolphins	W 38-16	1683.84	1603.20	72.84%	26.95%	+20.10	14-2
1998-09-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-20	1477.55	1537.10	54.53%	45.26%	-22.91	0-1
1998-09-13	@ New York Jets	W 24-10	1454.64	1484.57	33.07%	66.72%	+39.64	1-1
1998-09-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-24	1494.28	1546.76	30.26%	69.53%	-18.00	1-2
1998-09-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-24	1476.28	1470.06	63.63%	36.15%	+15.21	2-2
1998-10-11	Tennessee Oilers	L 8-12	1491.49	1473.28	65.21%	34.58%	-20.71	2-3
1998-10-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-16	1470.78	1532.42	29.16%	70.63%	-14.66	2-4
1998-10-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1456.12	1597.27	20.66%	79.12%	-13.94	2-5
1998-11-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 19-45	1442.18	1574.73	44.06%	55.73%	-35.70	2-6
1998-11-08	Oakland Raiders	W 13-10	1406.48	1531.06	45.19%	54.59%	+15.02	3-6
1998-11-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-14	1421.50	1380.34	42.65%	57.13%	-6.78	3-7
1998-11-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1414.72	1393.17	39.92%	59.87%	+25.15	4-7
1998-11-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-31	1439.87	1331.61	75.85%	23.94%	+10.07	5-7
1998-12-06	@ Tennessee Oilers	L 14-16	1449.94	1527.64	27.29%	72.50%	-6.13	5-8
1998-12-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-38	1443.81	1718.25	25.82%	73.97%	-12.98	5-9
1998-12-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-24	1430.83	1328.09	51.46%	48.32%	-37.46	5-10
1998-12-27	Detroit Lions	W 19-10	1393.37	1449.01	55.08%	44.70%	+21.31	6-10
1998-09-06	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-16	1457.47	1432.87	40.34%	59.44%	-9.06	0-1
1998-09-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-13	1448.41	1529.71	26.88%	72.91%	-10.47	0-2
1998-09-20	St. Louis Rams	L 33-34	1437.94	1414.57	65.88%	33.91%	-10.46	0-3
1998-10-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 26-21	1427.48	1626.64	34.93%	64.86%	+23.03	1-3
1998-10-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-24	1450.51	1379.90	46.84%	52.94%	+22.25	2-3
1998-10-18	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-16	1472.76	1596.82	45.27%	54.52%	+8.65	3-3
1998-10-25	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-14	1481.41	1398.75	48.57%	51.21%	+32.54	4-3
1998-11-01	Miami Dolphins	W 30-24	1513.95	1557.22	56.83%	42.95%	+16.72	5-3
1998-11-08	@ New York Jets	L 12-34	1530.67	1561.09	33.00%	66.78%	-24.61	5-4
1998-11-15	New England Patriots	W 13-10	1506.06	1519.58	60.97%	38.82%	+10.68	6-4
1998-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-11	1516.74	1345.30	81.84%	17.95%	+13.70	7-4
1998-11-29	@ New England Patriots	L 21-25	1530.44	1521.12	38.24%	61.54%	-12.16	7-5
1998-12-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-20	1518.28	1347.57	61.05%	38.74%	+22.20	8-5
1998-12-13	Oakland Raiders	W 44-21	1540.48	1451.40	73.78%	26.01%	+19.83	9-5
1998-12-19	New York Jets	L 10-17	1560.31	1656.53	49.26%	50.53%	-20.70	9-6
1998-12-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 45-33	1539.61	1434.75	51.77%	48.02%	+26.42	10-6
1998-09-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-19	1490.68	1474.27	64.97%	34.81%	-23.07	0-1
1998-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-19	1467.61	1467.20	37.04%	62.75%	-13.17	0-2
1998-09-27	Green Bay Packers	L 30-37	1454.44	1648.97	35.54%	64.25%	-14.94	0-3
1998-10-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 23-51	1439.50	1494.24	29.99%	69.80%	-25.22	0-4
1998-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1414.28	1568.86	19.42%	80.36%	-8.18	0-5
1998-10-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-16	1406.10	1488.91	26.71%	73.08%	-7.35	0-6
1998-10-25	Buffalo Bills	L 14-30	1398.75	1481.41	51.21%	48.57%	-32.54	0-7
1998-11-01	New Orleans Saints	W 31-17	1366.21	1451.26	50.87%	48.92%	+29.08	1-7
1998-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 23-25	1395.29	1642.19	12.41%	87.38%	-2.80	1-8
1998-11-15	Miami Dolphins	L 9-13	1392.49	1549.59	40.61%	59.17%	-12.90	1-9
1998-11-22	@ St. Louis Rams	W 24-20	1379.59	1392.56	35.26%	64.52%	+20.49	2-9
1998-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 21-48	1400.08	1620.91	14.14%	85.65%	-11.69	2-10
1998-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-31	1388.39	1642.88	28.08%	71.71%	-7.73	2-11
1998-12-13	Washington Redskins	L 25-28	1380.66	1432.03	55.69%	44.10%	-15.32	2-12
1998-12-20	St. Louis Rams	W 20-13	1365.34	1385.90	60.00%	39.78%	+16.73	3-12
1998-12-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-19	1382.07	1334.75	43.52%	56.26%	+25.27	4-12
1998-09-06	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 23-24	1447.62	1522.82	52.28%	47.50%	-8.30	0-1
1998-09-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-17	1439.32	1560.01	22.66%	77.13%	-8.06	0-2
1998-09-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 15-27	1431.26	1473.83	31.48%	68.31%	-17.33	0-3
1998-09-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-31	1413.93	1572.48	40.41%	59.37%	-11.13	0-4
1998-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 31-27	1402.80	1478.47	52.22%	47.57%	+15.12	1-4
1998-10-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-20	1417.92	1423.02	36.30%	63.48%	-20.81	1-5
1998-10-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-12	1397.11	1577.04	37.49%	62.30%	+9.90	2-5
1998-10-25	@ Tennessee Oilers	W 23-20	1407.01	1523.75	23.06%	76.73%	+21.10	3-5
1998-11-08	St. Louis Rams	L 12-20	1428.11	1389.36	67.83%	31.95%	-30.47	3-6
1998-11-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-26	1397.64	1434.24	32.22%	67.56%	-24.56	3-7
1998-11-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-20	1373.08	1628.47	11.89%	87.90%	-5.00	3-8
1998-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-31	1368.08	1444.39	52.12%	47.66%	-30.98	3-9
1998-12-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-48	1337.10	1713.12	6.31%	93.47%	-5.12	3-10
1998-12-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-26	1331.98	1621.72	9.97%	89.82%	-3.89	3-11
1998-12-20	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-3	1328.09	1430.83	48.32%	51.46%	+37.46	4-11
1998-12-27	Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1365.55	1638.20	26.02%	73.77%	-7.17	4-12
1998-09-06	Tennessee Oilers	L 14-23	1490.68	1508.71	60.35%	39.43%	-28.75	0-1
1998-09-13	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-28	1461.93	1493.32	32.88%	66.91%	+26.02	1-1
1998-09-20	Green Bay Packers	L 6-13	1487.95	1631.07	42.57%	57.22%	-17.89	1-2
1998-09-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-31	1470.06	1476.28	36.15%	63.63%	-15.21	1-3
1998-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 25-20	1454.85	1550.33	49.37%	50.42%	+17.91	2-3
1998-10-18	@ Tennessee Oilers	L 14-44	1472.76	1493.99	34.18%	65.60%	-29.76	2-4
1998-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-27	1443.00	1468.15	33.68%	66.11%	-22.07	2-5
1998-11-01	Denver Broncos	L 26-33	1420.93	1714.75	23.74%	76.05%	-9.99	2-6
1998-11-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 11-24	1410.94	1610.43	15.69%	84.09%	-9.00	2-7
1998-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-24	1401.94	1654.99	12.03%	87.76%	-8.77	2-8
1998-11-22	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-20	1393.17	1414.72	59.87%	39.92%	-25.15	2-9
1998-11-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-34	1368.02	1596.51	31.20%	68.59%	-20.45	2-10
1998-12-06	Buffalo Bills	L 20-33	1347.57	1518.28	38.74%	61.05%	-22.20	2-11
1998-12-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 26-39	1325.37	1318.07	37.97%	61.82%	-21.75	2-12
1998-12-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 25-24	1303.62	1496.11	16.23%	83.55%	+13.27	3-12
1998-12-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-35	1316.89	1497.73	37.36%	62.42%	-35.13	3-13
1998-09-06	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-10	1487.46	1440.10	68.90%	30.88%	+25.98	1-0
1998-09-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-42	1513.44	1610.60	25.12%	74.67%	-17.41	1-1
1998-09-21	@ New York Giants	W 31-7	1496.03	1524.58	33.24%	66.54%	+51.76	2-1
1998-09-27	Oakland Raiders	L 12-13	1547.79	1434.42	76.38%	23.41%	-12.13	2-2
1998-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-10	1535.66	1413.96	54.18%	45.61%	+33.20	3-2
1998-10-11	Carolina Panthers	W 27-20	1568.86	1414.28	80.36%	19.42%	+8.18	4-2
1998-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 12-13	1577.04	1397.11	62.30%	37.49%	-9.90	4-3
1998-11-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-0	1567.14	1371.74	64.36%	35.42%	+32.83	5-3
1998-11-08	New York Giants	W 16-6	1599.97	1456.91	79.30%	20.48%	+10.30	6-3
1998-11-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 35-28	1610.27	1436.19	61.51%	38.28%	+16.10	7-3
1998-11-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-22	1626.37	1527.31	74.87%	24.92%	+11.20	8-3
1998-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 36-46	1637.57	1684.87	56.27%	43.52%	-28.25	8-4
1998-12-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-22	1609.32	1418.03	63.82%	35.97%	-44.17	8-5
1998-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1565.15	1488.53	47.71%	52.08%	-13.13	8-6
1998-12-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-9	1552.02	1296.92	87.88%	11.91%	+3.79	9-6
1998-12-27	Washington Redskins	W 23-7	1555.81	1461.98	74.30%	25.48%	+16.21	10-6
1998-09-07	New England Patriots	W 27-21	1598.89	1544.82	69.72%	30.07%	+11.71	1-0
1998-09-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-23	1610.60	1513.44	74.67%	25.12%	+17.41	2-0
1998-09-20	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-17	1628.01	1460.05	60.67%	39.11%	+25.63	3-0
1998-09-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-16	1653.64	1438.47	66.92%	32.87%	+24.50	4-0
1998-10-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-16	1678.14	1375.09	90.48%	9.30%	+7.40	5-0
1998-10-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 21-16	1685.54	1555.32	55.39%	44.39%	+15.77	6-0
1998-10-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-24	1701.31	1588.17	76.36%	23.43%	+13.44	7-0
1998-11-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-26	1714.75	1420.93	76.05%	23.74%	+9.98	8-0
1998-11-08	San Diego Chargers	W 27-10	1724.73	1385.38	92.10%	7.68%	+5.04	9-0
1998-11-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-7	1729.77	1508.24	67.72%	32.06%	+24.45	10-0
1998-11-22	Oakland Raiders	W 40-14	1754.22	1527.06	86.09%	13.70%	+11.11	11-0
1998-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-16	1765.33	1395.15	83.08%	16.71%	+10.29	12-0
1998-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-31	1775.62	1491.80	89.51%	10.28%	+3.27	13-0
1998-12-13	@ New York Giants	L 16-20	1778.89	1437.02	80.69%	19.10%	-25.62	13-1
1998-12-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-31	1753.27	1571.81	62.51%	37.28%	-31.39	13-2
1998-12-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-21	1721.88	1540.99	82.62%	17.16%	+7.22	14-2
1998-09-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-38	1511.05	1603.93	25.59%	74.20%	-17.73	0-1
1998-09-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-34	1493.32	1461.93	66.91%	32.88%	-26.02	0-2
1998-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 6-29	1467.30	1552.30	26.46%	73.33%	-20.18	0-3
1998-09-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-6	1447.12	1491.17	56.72%	43.06%	+31.35	1-3
1998-10-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 27-31	1478.47	1402.80	47.57%	52.22%	-15.11	1-4
1998-10-15	Green Bay Packers	W 27-20	1463.36	1622.23	40.37%	59.42%	+24.97	2-4
1998-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-34	1488.33	1636.14	41.91%	57.88%	-30.52	2-5
1998-11-01	Arizona Cardinals	L 15-17	1457.81	1413.95	68.47%	31.32%	-15.37	2-6
1998-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-10	1442.44	1338.91	51.58%	48.21%	-8.20	2-7
1998-11-15	Chicago Bears	W 26-3	1434.24	1397.64	67.56%	32.22%	+24.57	3-7
1998-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-25	1458.81	1461.77	36.59%	63.20%	+17.38	4-7
1998-11-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-16	1476.19	1572.97	49.18%	50.61%	+13.92	5-7
1998-12-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 22-37	1490.11	1616.96	22.04%	77.74%	-13.58	5-8
1998-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-35	1476.53	1650.61	17.73%	82.06%	-13.22	5-9
1998-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-24	1463.31	1669.54	34.01%	65.78%	-14.30	5-10
1998-12-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-19	1449.01	1393.37	44.70%	55.08%	-21.31	5-11
1998-09-06	Detroit Lions	W 38-19	1603.93	1511.05	74.20%	25.59%	+17.73	1-0
1998-09-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-15	1621.66	1483.24	78.86%	20.92%	+9.41	2-0
1998-09-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-6	1631.07	1487.95	57.22%	42.57%	+17.90	3-0
1998-09-27	@ Carolina Panthers	W 37-30	1648.97	1454.44	64.25%	35.54%	+14.94	4-0
1998-10-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-37	1663.91	1583.60	72.80%	26.99%	-41.68	4-1
1998-10-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-27	1622.23	1463.36	59.42%	40.37%	-24.96	4-2
1998-10-25	Baltimore Ravens	W 28-10	1597.27	1456.12	79.12%	20.66%	+13.94	5-2
1998-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 36-22	1611.21	1668.94	54.78%	45.00%	+26.75	6-2
1998-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-27	1637.96	1538.90	50.93%	48.85%	-21.40	6-3
1998-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 37-3	1616.56	1446.61	60.94%	38.84%	+35.99	7-3
1998-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-28	1652.55	1663.76	35.49%	64.29%	-21.11	7-4
1998-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-16	1631.44	1301.93	91.69%	8.09%	+3.65	8-4
1998-12-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 22-24	1635.09	1475.37	59.54%	40.25%	-13.37	8-5
1998-12-13	Chicago Bears	W 26-20	1621.72	1331.98	89.82%	9.97%	+3.88	9-5
1998-12-20	Tennessee Oilers	W 30-22	1625.60	1554.30	71.76%	28.02%	+12.60	10-5
1998-12-27	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1638.20	1365.55	73.77%	26.02%	+7.17	11-5
1998-09-06	Miami Dolphins	L 15-24	1462.34	1502.42	57.28%	42.50%	-27.30	0-1
1998-09-13	@ New England Patriots	L 6-29	1435.04	1533.11	25.02%	74.76%	-19.08	0-2
1998-09-20	@ New York Jets	L 6-44	1415.96	1444.93	33.19%	66.60%	-32.52	0-3
1998-09-27	New Orleans Saints	L 13-19	1383.44	1480.36	49.16%	50.63%	-19.12	0-4
1998-10-04	San Diego Chargers	W 17-12	1364.32	1414.14	55.91%	43.88%	+15.58	1-4
1998-10-11	Buffalo Bills	L 24-31	1379.90	1450.51	52.94%	46.84%	-22.24	1-5
1998-10-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-34	1357.66	1644.33	10.13%	89.66%	-2.79	1-6
1998-11-01	New England Patriots	L 16-21	1354.87	1567.12	33.24%	66.55%	-11.82	1-7
1998-11-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-27	1343.05	1540.50	15.85%	83.94%	-9.09	1-8
1998-11-15	New York Jets	W 24-23	1333.96	1585.70	28.40%	71.39%	+11.34	2-8
1998-11-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 11-34	1345.30	1516.74	17.95%	81.84%	-13.69	2-9
1998-11-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 31-38	1331.61	1439.87	23.94%	75.85%	-10.07	2-10
1998-12-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-28	1321.54	1647.86	8.23%	91.55%	-3.47	2-11
1998-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 39-26	1318.07	1325.37	61.82%	37.97%	+21.76	3-11
1998-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-27	1339.83	1535.91	15.95%	83.83%	-5.08	3-12
1998-12-27	Carolina Panthers	L 19-27	1334.75	1382.07	56.26%	43.52%	-25.27	3-13
1998-09-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-23	1522.82	1447.62	47.50%	52.28%	+8.30	1-0
1998-09-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-16	1531.12	1581.88	55.77%	44.01%	+15.64	2-0
1998-09-20	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-10	1546.76	1494.28	69.53%	30.26%	+18.00	3-0
1998-09-27	@ Tennessee Oilers	W 27-22	1564.76	1491.97	47.16%	52.63%	+18.69	4-0
1998-10-12	Miami Dolphins	W 28-21	1583.45	1543.55	67.98%	31.81%	+13.37	5-0
1998-10-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-17	1596.82	1472.76	54.52%	45.27%	-8.65	5-1
1998-10-25	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-37	1588.17	1701.31	23.43%	76.36%	-13.44	5-2
1998-11-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 45-19	1574.73	1442.18	55.73%	44.06%	+35.70	6-2
1998-11-08	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-11	1610.43	1410.94	84.09%	15.69%	+9.00	7-2
1998-11-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 29-24	1619.43	1468.81	80.00%	19.78%	+7.03	8-2
1998-11-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-30	1626.46	1543.02	48.69%	51.10%	-29.95	8-3
1998-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-17	1596.51	1368.02	68.59%	31.20%	+20.45	9-3
1998-12-06	Detroit Lions	W 37-22	1616.96	1490.11	77.74%	22.04%	+13.58	10-3
1998-12-13	Tennessee Oilers	L 13-16	1630.54	1533.78	74.62%	25.16%	-20.53	10-4
1998-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-50	1610.01	1731.23	22.61%	77.18%	-22.73	10-5
1998-12-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-3	1587.28	1482.84	75.45%	24.34%	+16.42	11-5
1998-09-06	Oakland Raiders	W 28-8	1564.26	1463.93	75.01%	24.78%	+17.62	1-0
1998-09-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-21	1581.88	1531.12	44.01%	55.77%	-15.64	1-1
1998-09-20	San Diego Chargers	W 23-7	1566.24	1470.91	74.47%	25.32%	+16.11	2-1
1998-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-21	1582.35	1384.76	64.65%	35.14%	+9.67	3-1
1998-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-6	1592.02	1573.53	65.25%	34.54%	+18.21	4-1
1998-10-11	@ New England Patriots	L 10-40	1610.23	1583.33	40.66%	59.13%	-35.39	4-2
1998-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-20	1574.84	1547.08	66.44%	33.34%	-27.91	4-3
1998-11-01	New York Jets	L 17-20	1546.93	1543.70	63.23%	36.55%	-17.39	4-4
1998-11-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 12-24	1529.54	1517.04	38.68%	61.11%	-21.30	4-5
1998-11-16	Denver Broncos	L 7-30	1508.24	1729.77	32.06%	67.72%	-24.44	4-6
1998-11-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 37-38	1483.80	1387.12	50.59%	49.19%	-8.03	4-7
1998-11-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-24	1475.77	1436.57	67.89%	31.90%	+16.03	5-7
1998-12-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 31-35	1491.80	1775.62	10.28%	89.51%	-3.27	5-8
1998-12-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1488.53	1565.15	52.08%	47.71%	+13.13	6-8
1998-12-20	@ New York Giants	L 7-28	1501.66	1462.64	42.35%	57.43%	-30.84	6-9
1998-12-26	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-24	1470.82	1453.76	39.30%	60.49%	+25.41	7-9
1998-09-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-15	1502.42	1462.34	42.50%	57.28%	+27.29	1-0
1998-09-13	Buffalo Bills	W 13-7	1529.71	1448.41	72.91%	26.88%	+10.46	2-0
1998-09-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-0	1540.17	1568.07	58.99%	40.80%	+29.71	3-0
1998-10-04	@ New York Jets	L 9-20	1569.88	1477.45	49.98%	49.81%	-26.33	3-1
1998-10-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-28	1543.55	1583.45	31.81%	67.98%	-13.38	3-2
1998-10-18	St. Louis Rams	W 14-0	1530.17	1443.55	73.51%	26.28%	+15.64	4-2
1998-10-25	New England Patriots	W 12-9	1545.81	1578.54	58.31%	41.47%	+11.41	5-2
1998-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-30	1557.22	1513.95	42.95%	56.83%	-16.72	5-3
1998-11-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-14	1540.50	1343.05	83.94%	15.85%	+9.09	6-3
1998-11-15	@ Carolina Panthers	W 13-9	1549.59	1392.49	59.17%	40.61%	+12.91	7-3
1998-11-23	@ New England Patriots	L 23-26	1562.50	1508.90	44.41%	55.37%	-12.22	7-4
1998-11-29	New Orleans Saints	W 30-10	1550.28	1434.50	76.63%	23.16%	+16.47	8-4
1998-12-06	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-17	1566.75	1476.58	49.65%	50.13%	+25.18	9-4
1998-12-13	New York Jets	L 16-21	1591.93	1636.41	56.66%	43.12%	-20.12	9-5
1998-12-21	Denver Broncos	W 31-21	1571.81	1753.27	37.28%	62.51%	+31.39	10-5
1998-12-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 16-38	1603.20	1683.84	26.95%	72.84%	-20.10	10-6
1998-09-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-7	1501.58	1513.27	61.22%	38.57%	+30.02	1-0
1998-09-13	@ St. Louis Rams	W 38-31	1531.60	1435.27	50.54%	49.24%	+20.70	2-0
1998-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 29-6	1552.30	1467.30	73.33%	26.46%	+20.18	3-0
1998-09-27	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1572.48	1413.93	59.37%	40.41%	+11.12	4-0
1998-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 37-24	1583.60	1663.91	26.99%	72.80%	+41.68	5-0
1998-10-18	Washington Redskins	W 41-7	1625.28	1366.99	88.07%	11.71%	+10.86	6-0
1998-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-13	1636.14	1488.33	57.88%	41.91%	+30.52	7-0
1998-11-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-27	1666.66	1478.47	63.41%	36.38%	-17.44	7-1
1998-11-08	New Orleans Saints	W 31-24	1649.22	1422.18	86.08%	13.71%	+5.77	8-1
1998-11-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1654.99	1401.94	87.76%	12.03%	+8.77	9-1
1998-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 28-14	1663.76	1652.55	64.29%	35.49%	+21.11	10-1
1998-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 46-36	1684.87	1637.57	43.52%	56.27%	+28.25	11-1
1998-12-06	Chicago Bears	W 48-22	1713.12	1337.10	93.47%	6.31%	+5.13	12-1
1998-12-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 38-28	1718.25	1443.81	73.97%	25.82%	+12.98	13-1
1998-12-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 50-10	1731.23	1610.01	77.18%	22.61%	+22.73	14-1
1998-12-26	@ Tennessee Oilers	W 26-16	1753.96	1541.70	66.55%	33.24%	+16.71	15-1
1998-09-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1544.82	1598.89	30.07%	69.72%	-11.71	0-1
1998-09-13	Indianapolis Colts	W 29-6	1533.11	1435.04	74.76%	25.02%	+19.08	1-1
1998-09-20	Tennessee Oilers	W 27-16	1552.19	1508.49	68.45%	31.34%	+16.52	2-1
1998-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-27	1568.71	1499.49	46.64%	53.14%	+14.62	3-1
1998-10-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 40-10	1583.33	1610.23	59.13%	40.66%	+35.39	4-1
1998-10-19	New York Jets	L 14-24	1618.72	1467.91	80.02%	19.76%	-40.18	4-2
1998-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-12	1578.54	1545.81	41.47%	58.31%	-11.42	4-3
1998-11-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 21-16	1567.12	1354.87	66.55%	33.24%	+11.82	5-3
1998-11-08	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-41	1578.94	1545.73	67.14%	32.65%	-59.36	5-4
1998-11-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-13	1519.58	1506.06	38.82%	60.97%	-10.68	5-5
1998-11-23	Miami Dolphins	W 26-23	1508.90	1562.50	55.37%	44.41%	+12.22	6-5
1998-11-29	Buffalo Bills	W 25-21	1521.12	1530.44	61.54%	38.24%	+12.16	7-5
1998-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-9	1533.28	1559.05	33.60%	66.19%	+39.32	8-5
1998-12-13	@ St. Louis Rams	L 18-32	1572.60	1345.23	68.45%	31.33%	-40.67	8-6
1998-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1531.93	1663.84	44.15%	55.63%	+15.31	9-6
1998-12-27	@ New York Jets	L 10-31	1547.24	1677.24	21.73%	78.05%	-15.84	9-7
1998-09-06	@ St. Louis Rams	W 24-17	1439.52	1462.95	33.90%	65.89%	+27.68	1-0
1998-09-13	Carolina Panthers	W 19-14	1467.20	1467.61	62.75%	37.04%	+13.16	2-0
1998-09-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 19-13	1480.36	1383.44	50.63%	49.16%	+19.13	3-0
1998-10-04	New England Patriots	L 27-30	1499.49	1568.71	53.14%	46.64%	-14.62	3-1
1998-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-31	1484.87	1603.61	46.03%	53.76%	-40.71	3-2
1998-10-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 23-31	1444.16	1553.91	23.78%	76.00%	-10.70	3-3
1998-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-3	1433.46	1496.27	54.06%	45.73%	+17.80	4-3
1998-11-01	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-31	1451.26	1366.21	48.92%	50.87%	-29.08	4-4
1998-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-31	1422.18	1649.22	13.71%	86.08%	-5.77	4-5
1998-11-15	St. Louis Rams	W 24-3	1416.41	1419.83	62.34%	37.44%	+27.27	5-5
1998-11-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-31	1443.68	1621.60	17.41%	82.38%	-9.18	5-6
1998-11-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-30	1434.50	1550.28	23.16%	76.63%	-16.47	5-7
1998-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 22-3	1418.03	1609.32	35.97%	63.82%	+44.17	6-7
1998-12-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-27	1462.20	1651.32	36.25%	63.53%	-18.22	6-8
1998-12-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-19	1443.98	1414.25	41.05%	58.73%	-9.23	6-9
1998-12-27	Buffalo Bills	L 33-45	1434.75	1539.61	48.02%	51.77%	-26.42	6-10
1998-09-06	Washington Redskins	W 31-24	1523.18	1515.60	63.81%	35.97%	+15.13	1-0
1998-09-13	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1538.31	1446.31	49.92%	49.87%	-13.73	1-1
1998-09-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1524.58	1496.03	66.54%	33.24%	-51.77	1-2
1998-09-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-16	1472.81	1454.80	39.43%	60.35%	+40.67	2-2
1998-10-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-20	1513.48	1459.81	44.42%	55.36%	-29.11	2-3
1998-10-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-34	1484.37	1519.46	57.98%	41.80%	-34.45	2-4
1998-10-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-7	1449.92	1443.82	63.62%	36.17%	+29.87	3-4
1998-11-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-21	1479.79	1356.12	54.46%	45.32%	-22.88	3-5
1998-11-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-16	1456.91	1599.97	20.48%	79.30%	-10.30	3-6
1998-11-15	Green Bay Packers	L 3-37	1446.61	1616.56	38.84%	60.94%	-35.99	3-7
1998-11-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-0	1410.62	1320.32	73.91%	25.87%	+18.39	4-7
1998-11-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-31	1429.01	1630.78	15.52%	84.27%	-12.09	4-8
1998-12-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-19	1416.92	1420.54	36.50%	63.29%	+20.10	5-8
1998-12-13	Denver Broncos	W 20-16	1437.02	1778.89	19.10%	80.69%	+25.62	6-8
1998-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-7	1462.64	1501.66	57.43%	42.35%	+30.84	7-8
1998-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1493.48	1293.13	65.01%	34.78%	+17.48	8-8
1998-09-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 30-36	1496.23	1551.48	29.92%	69.86%	-11.66	0-1
1998-09-13	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1484.57	1454.64	66.72%	33.07%	-39.64	0-2
1998-09-20	Indianapolis Colts	W 44-6	1444.93	1415.96	66.60%	33.19%	+32.52	1-2
1998-10-04	Miami Dolphins	W 20-9	1477.45	1569.88	49.81%	49.98%	+26.33	2-2
1998-10-11	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-30	1503.78	1407.67	50.51%	49.28%	-35.87	2-3
1998-10-19	@ New England Patriots	W 24-14	1467.91	1618.72	19.76%	80.02%	+40.18	3-3
1998-10-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-3	1508.09	1564.61	54.96%	44.83%	+35.61	4-3
1998-11-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1543.70	1546.93	36.55%	63.23%	+17.39	5-3
1998-11-08	Buffalo Bills	W 34-12	1561.09	1530.67	66.78%	33.00%	+24.61	6-3
1998-11-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-24	1585.70	1333.96	71.39%	28.40%	-11.34	6-4
1998-11-22	@ Tennessee Oilers	W 24-3	1574.36	1583.13	35.82%	63.97%	+46.55	7-4
1998-11-29	Carolina Panthers	W 48-21	1620.91	1400.08	85.65%	14.14%	+11.68	8-4
1998-12-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 32-31	1632.59	1525.04	75.77%	24.01%	+3.82	9-4
1998-12-13	@ Miami Dolphins	W 21-16	1636.41	1591.93	43.12%	56.66%	+20.12	10-4
1998-12-19	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1656.53	1560.31	50.53%	49.26%	+20.71	11-4
1998-12-27	New England Patriots	W 31-10	1677.24	1547.24	78.05%	21.73%	+15.83	12-4
1998-09-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 8-28	1463.93	1564.26	24.78%	75.01%	-17.62	0-1
1998-09-13	New York Giants	W 20-17	1446.31	1538.31	49.87%	49.92%	+13.74	1-1
1998-09-20	Denver Broncos	L 17-34	1460.05	1628.01	39.11%	60.67%	-25.63	1-2
1998-09-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 13-12	1434.42	1547.79	23.41%	76.38%	+12.13	2-2
1998-10-04	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-20	1446.55	1440.05	37.86%	61.93%	+17.03	3-2
1998-10-11	San Diego Chargers	W 7-6	1463.58	1398.55	71.03%	28.76%	+4.57	4-2
1998-10-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1468.15	1443.00	66.11%	33.68%	+22.07	5-2
1998-11-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-18	1490.22	1557.88	28.45%	71.34%	+40.84	6-2
1998-11-08	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-13	1531.06	1406.48	54.59%	45.19%	-15.01	6-3
1998-11-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1516.05	1538.33	59.77%	40.02%	+11.01	7-3
1998-11-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-40	1527.06	1754.22	13.70%	86.09%	-11.11	7-4
1998-11-29	Washington Redskins	L 19-29	1515.95	1382.44	78.39%	21.39%	-39.37	7-5
1998-12-06	Miami Dolphins	L 17-27	1476.58	1566.75	50.13%	49.65%	-25.18	7-6
1998-12-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-44	1451.40	1540.48	26.01%	73.78%	-19.83	7-7
1998-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-10	1431.57	1359.94	46.99%	52.80%	+22.19	8-7
1998-12-26	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-31	1453.76	1470.82	60.49%	39.30%	-25.41	8-8
1998-09-06	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-38	1474.67	1502.56	58.99%	40.80%	-57.75	0-1
1998-09-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 12-17	1416.92	1497.34	26.98%	72.81%	-9.59	0-2
1998-09-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 3-17	1407.33	1400.12	37.96%	61.83%	-22.57	0-3
1998-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1384.76	1582.35	35.14%	64.65%	-9.67	0-4
1998-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-41	1375.09	1678.14	9.30%	90.48%	-7.40	0-5
1998-10-11	Washington Redskins	W 17-12	1367.69	1380.76	61.03%	38.75%	+13.77	1-5
1998-10-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-13	1381.46	1393.98	35.32%	64.47%	-9.72	1-6
1998-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-34	1371.74	1567.14	35.42%	64.36%	-32.83	1-7
1998-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 10-9	1338.91	1442.44	48.21%	51.58%	+8.19	2-7
1998-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-28	1347.10	1372.14	33.69%	66.09%	-26.78	2-8
1998-11-22	@ New York Giants	L 0-20	1320.32	1410.62	25.87%	73.91%	-18.39	2-9
1998-11-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-24	1301.93	1631.44	8.09%	91.69%	-3.65	2-10
1998-12-03	St. Louis Rams	W 17-14	1298.28	1357.68	54.55%	45.24%	+12.45	3-10
1998-12-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-20	1310.73	1400.44	50.20%	49.59%	-13.81	3-11
1998-12-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-13	1296.92	1552.02	11.91%	87.88%	-3.79	3-12
1998-12-27	New York Giants	L 10-20	1293.13	1493.48	34.78%	65.01%	-17.47	3-13
1998-09-06	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 20-13	1537.10	1477.55	45.26%	54.53%	+22.91	1-0
1998-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 17-12	1560.01	1439.32	77.13%	22.66%	+8.06	2-0
1998-09-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1568.07	1540.17	40.80%	58.99%	-29.71	2-1
1998-09-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-10	1538.36	1585.50	56.29%	43.50%	+11.97	3-1
1998-10-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-25	1550.33	1454.85	50.42%	49.37%	-17.91	3-2
1998-10-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 16-6	1532.42	1470.78	70.63%	29.16%	+14.66	4-2
1998-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-13	1547.08	1574.84	33.34%	66.44%	+27.91	5-2
1998-11-01	Tennessee Oilers	L 31-41	1574.99	1502.65	71.88%	27.90%	-36.09	5-3
1998-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 27-20	1538.90	1637.96	48.85%	50.93%	+21.40	6-3
1998-11-15	@ Tennessee Oilers	L 14-23	1560.30	1565.85	36.24%	63.54%	-17.28	6-4
1998-11-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-15	1543.02	1626.46	51.10%	48.69%	+29.95	7-4
1998-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-19	1572.97	1476.19	50.61%	49.18%	-13.92	7-5
1998-12-06	New England Patriots	L 9-23	1559.05	1533.28	66.19%	33.60%	-39.32	7-6
1998-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-16	1519.73	1488.74	41.23%	58.56%	-23.62	7-7
1998-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-25	1496.11	1303.62	83.55%	16.23%	-13.27	7-8
1998-12-28	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-21	1482.84	1587.28	24.34%	75.45%	-16.42	7-9
1998-09-06	Buffalo Bills	W 16-14	1432.87	1457.47	59.44%	40.34%	+9.07	1-0
1998-09-13	@ Tennessee Oilers	W 13-7	1441.94	1537.46	25.30%	74.49%	+28.97	2-0
1998-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-23	1470.91	1566.24	25.32%	74.47%	-16.11	2-1
1998-09-27	New York Giants	L 16-34	1454.80	1472.81	60.35%	39.43%	-40.66	2-2
1998-10-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 12-17	1414.14	1364.32	43.88%	55.91%	-15.59	2-3
1998-10-11	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-7	1398.55	1463.58	28.76%	71.03%	-4.57	2-4
1998-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1393.98	1381.46	64.47%	35.32%	+9.73	3-4
1998-10-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-27	1403.71	1539.55	43.59%	56.19%	-18.33	3-5
1998-11-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-27	1385.38	1724.73	7.68%	92.10%	-5.04	3-6
1998-11-15	Baltimore Ravens	W 14-13	1380.34	1421.50	57.13%	42.65%	+6.78	4-6
1998-11-22	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-37	1387.12	1483.80	49.19%	50.59%	+8.03	5-6
1998-11-29	Denver Broncos	L 16-31	1395.15	1765.33	16.71%	83.08%	-10.29	5-7
1998-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-24	1384.86	1421.80	32.18%	67.61%	-10.23	5-8
1998-12-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-38	1374.63	1521.23	20.15%	79.63%	-14.69	5-9
1998-12-20	Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1359.94	1431.57	52.80%	46.99%	-22.18	5-10
1998-12-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-16	1337.76	1423.48	26.38%	73.41%	-7.27	5-11
1998-09-06	New York Jets	W 36-30	1551.48	1496.23	69.86%	29.92%	+11.66	1-0
1998-09-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-10	1563.14	1500.47	45.71%	54.08%	+50.81	2-0
1998-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-20	1613.95	1506.93	75.72%	24.07%	+12.69	3-0
1998-10-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-26	1626.64	1427.48	64.86%	34.93%	-23.03	3-1
1998-10-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-0	1603.61	1484.87	53.76%	46.03%	+40.72	4-1
1998-10-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-31	1644.33	1357.66	89.66%	10.13%	+2.79	5-1
1998-10-25	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-10	1647.12	1427.92	67.43%	32.36%	+21.82	6-1
1998-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 22-36	1668.94	1611.21	45.00%	54.78%	-26.75	6-2
1998-11-08	Carolina Panthers	W 25-23	1642.19	1395.29	87.38%	12.41%	+2.79	7-2
1998-11-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 19-31	1644.98	1605.09	42.48%	57.31%	-23.38	7-3
1998-11-22	New Orleans Saints	W 31-20	1621.60	1443.68	82.38%	17.41%	+9.18	8-3
1998-11-30	New York Giants	W 31-7	1630.78	1429.01	84.27%	15.52%	+12.10	9-3
1998-12-06	@ Carolina Panthers	W 31-28	1642.88	1388.39	71.71%	28.08%	+7.73	10-3
1998-12-14	Detroit Lions	W 35-13	1650.61	1476.53	82.06%	17.73%	+13.23	11-3
1998-12-20	@ New England Patriots	L 21-24	1663.84	1531.93	55.63%	44.15%	-15.31	11-4
1998-12-27	St. Louis Rams	W 38-19	1648.53	1369.17	89.27%	10.52%	+7.30	12-4
1998-09-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-0	1502.56	1474.67	40.80%	58.99%	+57.75	1-0
1998-09-13	Arizona Cardinals	W 33-14	1560.31	1414.12	79.60%	20.19%	+13.99	2-0
1998-09-20	Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1574.30	1449.66	77.52%	22.26%	+11.20	3-0
1998-09-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-13	1585.50	1538.36	43.50%	56.29%	-11.97	3-1
1998-10-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-17	1573.53	1592.02	34.54%	65.25%	-18.21	3-2
1998-10-11	Denver Broncos	L 16-21	1555.32	1685.54	44.39%	55.39%	-15.77	3-3
1998-10-25	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-20	1539.55	1403.71	56.19%	43.59%	+18.33	4-3
1998-11-01	Oakland Raiders	L 18-31	1557.88	1490.22	71.34%	28.45%	-40.84	4-4
1998-11-08	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-12	1517.04	1529.54	61.11%	38.68%	+21.29	5-4
1998-11-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1538.33	1516.05	40.02%	59.77%	-11.02	5-5
1998-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 22-30	1527.31	1626.37	24.92%	74.87%	-11.20	5-6
1998-11-29	Tennessee Oilers	W 20-18	1516.11	1536.58	60.02%	39.77%	+8.93	6-6
1998-12-06	@ New York Jets	L 31-32	1525.04	1632.59	24.01%	75.77%	-3.81	6-7
1998-12-13	San Diego Chargers	W 38-17	1521.23	1374.63	79.63%	20.15%	+14.68	7-7
1998-12-20	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-23	1535.91	1339.83	83.83%	15.95%	+5.08	8-7
1998-12-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-28	1540.99	1721.88	17.16%	82.62%	-7.22	8-8
1998-09-06	New Orleans Saints	L 17-24	1462.95	1439.52	65.89%	33.90%	-27.68	0-1
1998-09-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-38	1435.27	1531.60	49.24%	50.54%	-20.70	0-2
1998-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-33	1414.57	1437.94	33.91%	65.88%	+10.46	1-2
1998-09-27	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-20	1425.03	1422.69	63.12%	36.67%	-17.36	1-3
1998-10-11	New York Jets	W 30-10	1407.67	1503.78	49.28%	50.51%	+35.88	2-3
1998-10-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-14	1443.55	1530.17	26.28%	73.51%	-15.63	2-4
1998-10-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-28	1427.92	1647.12	32.36%	67.43%	-21.82	2-5
1998-11-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 15-37	1406.10	1529.00	22.44%	77.35%	-16.74	2-6
1998-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-12	1389.36	1428.11	31.95%	67.83%	+30.47	3-6
1998-11-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-24	1419.83	1416.41	37.44%	62.34%	-27.27	3-7
1998-11-22	Carolina Panthers	L 20-24	1392.56	1379.59	64.52%	35.26%	-20.49	3-8
1998-11-29	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-21	1372.07	1633.47	27.28%	72.51%	-14.39	3-9
1998-12-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1357.68	1298.28	45.24%	54.55%	-12.45	3-10
1998-12-13	New England Patriots	W 32-18	1345.23	1572.60	31.33%	68.45%	+40.67	4-10
1998-12-20	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-20	1385.90	1365.34	39.78%	60.00%	-16.73	4-11
1998-12-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-38	1369.17	1648.53	10.52%	89.27%	-7.29	4-12
1998-09-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1513.27	1501.58	38.57%	61.22%	-30.03	0-1
1998-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 15-23	1483.24	1621.66	20.92%	78.86%	-9.41	0-2
1998-09-20	Chicago Bears	W 27-15	1473.83	1431.26	68.31%	31.48%	+17.34	1-2
1998-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-27	1491.17	1447.12	43.06%	56.72%	-31.36	1-3
1998-10-04	New York Giants	W 20-3	1459.81	1513.48	55.36%	44.42%	+29.10	2-3
1998-10-18	Carolina Panthers	W 16-13	1488.91	1406.10	73.08%	26.71%	+7.36	3-3
1998-10-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-9	1496.27	1433.46	45.73%	54.06%	-17.80	3-4
1998-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-24	1478.47	1666.66	36.38%	63.41%	+17.44	4-4
1998-11-08	Tennessee Oilers	L 22-31	1495.91	1538.74	56.90%	42.89%	-27.10	4-5
1998-11-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-29	1468.81	1619.43	19.78%	80.00%	-7.04	4-6
1998-11-22	Detroit Lions	L 25-28	1461.77	1458.81	63.20%	36.59%	-17.38	4-7
1998-11-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-17	1444.39	1368.08	47.66%	52.12%	+30.98	5-7
1998-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 24-22	1475.37	1635.09	40.25%	59.54%	+13.37	6-7
1998-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-3	1488.74	1519.73	58.56%	41.23%	+23.62	7-7
1998-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-20	1512.36	1447.35	46.04%	53.75%	-14.63	7-8
1998-12-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-0	1497.73	1316.89	62.42%	37.36%	+35.13	8-8
1998-09-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-14	1508.71	1490.68	39.43%	60.35%	+28.75	1-0
1998-09-13	San Diego Chargers	L 7-13	1537.46	1441.94	74.49%	25.30%	-28.97	1-1
1998-09-20	@ New England Patriots	L 16-27	1508.49	1552.19	31.34%	68.45%	-16.52	1-2
1998-09-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 22-27	1491.97	1564.76	52.63%	47.16%	-18.69	1-3
1998-10-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 12-8	1473.28	1491.49	34.58%	65.21%	+20.71	2-3
1998-10-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-14	1493.99	1472.76	65.60%	34.18%	+29.76	3-3
1998-10-25	Chicago Bears	L 20-23	1523.75	1407.01	76.73%	23.06%	-21.10	3-4
1998-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-31	1502.65	1574.99	27.90%	71.88%	+36.09	4-4
1998-11-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-22	1538.74	1495.91	42.89%	56.90%	+27.11	5-4
1998-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-14	1565.85	1560.30	63.54%	36.24%	+17.28	6-4
1998-11-22	New York Jets	L 3-24	1583.13	1574.36	63.97%	35.82%	-46.55	6-5
1998-11-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 18-20	1536.58	1516.11	39.77%	60.02%	-8.94	6-6
1998-12-06	Baltimore Ravens	W 16-14	1527.64	1449.94	72.50%	27.29%	+6.14	7-6
1998-12-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 16-13	1533.78	1630.54	25.16%	74.62%	+20.52	8-6
1998-12-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 22-30	1554.30	1625.60	28.02%	71.76%	-12.60	8-7
1998-12-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-26	1541.70	1753.96	33.24%	66.55%	-16.71	8-8
1998-09-06	@ New York Giants	L 24-31	1515.60	1523.18	35.97%	63.81%	-15.13	0-1
1998-09-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-45	1500.47	1563.14	54.08%	45.71%	-50.81	0-2
1998-09-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-24	1449.66	1574.30	22.26%	77.52%	-11.19	0-3
1998-09-27	Denver Broncos	L 16-38	1438.47	1653.64	32.87%	66.92%	-24.51	0-4
1998-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-31	1413.96	1535.66	45.61%	54.18%	-33.20	0-5
1998-10-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 12-17	1380.76	1367.69	38.75%	61.03%	-13.77	0-6
1998-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-41	1366.99	1625.28	11.71%	88.07%	-10.87	0-7
1998-11-01	New York Giants	W 21-14	1356.12	1479.79	45.32%	54.46%	+22.89	1-7
1998-11-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 27-29	1379.01	1429.33	30.52%	69.26%	-6.87	1-8
1998-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-3	1372.14	1347.10	66.09%	33.69%	+26.78	2-8
1998-11-22	Arizona Cardinals	L 42-45	1398.92	1420.09	59.92%	39.87%	-16.48	2-9
1998-11-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 29-19	1382.44	1515.95	21.39%	78.39%	+39.36	3-9
1998-12-06	San Diego Chargers	W 24-20	1421.80	1384.86	67.61%	32.18%	+10.23	4-9
1998-12-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 28-25	1432.03	1380.66	44.10%	55.69%	+15.32	5-9
1998-12-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-16	1447.35	1512.36	53.75%	46.04%	+14.63	6-9
1998-12-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-23	1461.98	1555.81	25.48%	74.30%	-16.21	6-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1999-01-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-7	1430.74	1572.02	20.72%	79.28%	+45.31	1-0
1999-01-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-41	1476.05	1770.67	9.76%	90.24%	-6.92	1-1
1999-01-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-18	1703.94	1665.63	67.90%	32.10%	+7.20	1-0
1999-01-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-27	1711.14	1777.59	28.68%	71.32%	+19.58	2-0
1999-01-31	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-34	1730.72	1767.48	44.73%	55.27%	-27.46	2-1
1999-01-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1566.03	1583.10	34.82%	65.18%	-14.60	0-1
1999-01-02	Arizona Cardinals	L 7-20	1572.02	1430.74	79.28%	20.72%	-45.31	0-1
1999-01-09	Miami Dolphins	W 38-3	1729.10	1597.70	78.33%	21.67%	+20.32	1-0
1999-01-17	New York Jets	W 23-10	1749.42	1707.11	68.40%	31.60%	+18.06	2-0
1999-01-31	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-19	1767.48	1730.72	55.27%	44.73%	+27.46	3-0
1999-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-30	1645.37	1655.83	35.69%	64.31%	-9.80	0-1
1999-01-03	New England Patriots	W 25-10	1603.70	1531.40	72.01%	27.99%	+17.18	1-0
1999-01-10	@ New York Jets	L 24-34	1620.88	1693.07	28.01%	71.99%	-14.04	1-1
1999-01-02	Buffalo Bills	W 24-17	1583.10	1566.03	65.18%	34.82%	+14.60	1-0
1999-01-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-38	1597.70	1729.10	21.67%	78.33%	-20.32	1-1
1999-01-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 41-21	1770.67	1476.05	90.24%	9.76%	+6.92	1-0
1999-01-17	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-30	1777.59	1711.14	71.32%	28.68%	-19.58	1-1
1999-01-03	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-25	1531.40	1603.70	27.99%	72.01%	-17.19	0-1
1999-01-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-24	1693.07	1620.88	71.99%	28.01%	+14.04	1-0
1999-01-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-23	1707.11	1749.42	31.60%	68.40%	-18.06	1-1
1999-01-03	Green Bay Packers	W 30-27	1655.83	1645.37	64.31%	35.69%	+9.80	1-0
1999-01-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 18-20	1665.63	1703.94	32.10%	67.90%	-7.20	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1998-12-20	16.23%	Cincinnati Bengals	1303.62	25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1496.11	24
2	1998-12-13	19.10%	@ New York Giants	1437.02	20	Denver Broncos	1778.89	16
3	1998-10-19	19.76%	New York Jets	1467.91	24	@ New England Patriots	1618.72	14
4	1999-01-02 *	20.72%	Arizona Cardinals	1430.74	20	@ Dallas Cowboys	1572.02	7
5	1998-11-29	21.39%	Washington Redskins	1382.44	29	@ Oakland Raiders	1515.95	19
6	1998-10-25	23.06%	Chicago Bears	1407.01	23	@ Tennessee Oilers	1523.75	20
7	1998-09-27	23.41%	Oakland Raiders	1434.42	13	@ Dallas Cowboys	1547.79	12
8	1998-12-13	25.16%	Tennessee Oilers	1533.78	16	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1630.54	13
9	1998-09-13	25.30%	San Diego Chargers	1441.94	13	@ Tennessee Oilers	1537.46	7
10	1998-10-05	26.99%	Minnesota Vikings	1583.60	37	@ Green Bay Packers	1663.91	24
11	1998-11-01	27.90%	Tennessee Oilers	1502.65	41	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1574.99	31
12	1998-11-15	28.40%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1333.96	24	New York Jets	1585.70	23
13	1998-11-01	28.45%	Oakland Raiders	1490.22	31	@ Seattle Seahawks	1557.88	18
14	1999-01-17 *	28.68%	Atlanta Falcons	1711.14	30	@ Minnesota Vikings	1777.59	27
15	1998-11-01	31.32%	Arizona Cardinals	1413.95	17	@ Detroit Lions	1457.81	15
16	1998-12-13	31.33%	@ St. Louis Rams	1345.23	32	New England Patriots	1572.60	18
17	1998-11-08	31.95%	St. Louis Rams	1389.36	20	@ Chicago Bears	1428.11	12
18	1998-11-08	32.65%	Atlanta Falcons	1545.73	41	@ New England Patriots	1578.94	10
19	1998-09-13	32.88%	Cincinnati Bengals	1461.93	34	@ Detroit Lions	1493.32	28
20	1998-09-13	33.07%	Baltimore Ravens	1454.64	24	@ New York Jets	1484.57	10
21	1998-09-21	33.24%	Dallas Cowboys	1496.03	31	@ New York Giants	1524.58	7
22	1998-10-26	33.34%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1547.08	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1574.84	13
23	1998-12-06	33.60%	New England Patriots	1533.28	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1559.05	9
24	1998-09-06	33.90%	New Orleans Saints	1439.52	24	@ St. Louis Rams	1462.95	17
25	1998-09-20	33.91%	St. Louis Rams	1414.57	34	@ Buffalo Bills	1437.94	33

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1998-11-08	59.36	Atlanta Falcons	41	1545.73	32.65%	@ New England Patriots	10	1578.94	67.14%
2	1998-09-06	57.75	Seattle Seahawks	38	1502.56	40.80%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1474.67	58.99%
3	1998-09-21	51.77	Dallas Cowboys	31	1496.03	33.24%	@ New York Giants	7	1524.58	66.54%
4	1998-09-14	50.81	San Francisco 49ers	45	1563.14	45.71%	@ Washington Redskins	10	1500.47	54.08%
5	1998-11-22	46.55	New York Jets	24	1574.36	35.82%	@ Tennessee Oilers	3	1583.13	63.97%
6	1999-01-02 *	45.31	Arizona Cardinals	20	1430.74	20.72%	@ Dallas Cowboys	7	1572.02	79.28%
7	1998-12-06	44.17	@ New Orleans Saints	22	1418.03	35.97%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1609.32	63.82%
8	1998-10-05	41.68	Minnesota Vikings	37	1583.60	26.99%	@ Green Bay Packers	24	1663.91	72.80%
9	1998-11-01	40.84	Oakland Raiders	31	1490.22	28.45%	@ Seattle Seahawks	18	1557.88	71.34%
10	1998-10-11	40.72	San Francisco 49ers	31	1603.61	53.76%	@ New Orleans Saints	0	1484.87	46.03%
11	1998-09-27	40.67	New York Giants	34	1472.81	39.43%	@ San Diego Chargers	16	1454.80	60.35%
12	1998-12-13	40.67	@ St. Louis Rams	32	1345.23	31.33%	New England Patriots	18	1572.60	68.45%
13	1998-10-19	40.18	New York Jets	24	1467.91	19.76%	@ New England Patriots	14	1618.72	80.02%
14	1998-09-13	39.64	Baltimore Ravens	24	1454.64	33.07%	@ New York Jets	10	1484.57	66.72%
15	1998-11-29	39.37	Washington Redskins	29	1382.44	21.39%	@ Oakland Raiders	19	1515.95	78.39%
16	1998-12-06	39.32	New England Patriots	23	1533.28	33.60%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	9	1559.05	66.19%
17	1998-12-20	37.46	@ Chicago Bears	24	1328.09	48.32%	Baltimore Ravens	3	1430.83	51.46%
18	1998-11-01	36.09	Tennessee Oilers	41	1502.65	27.90%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1574.99	71.88%
19	1998-11-15	35.99	Green Bay Packers	37	1616.56	60.94%	@ New York Giants	3	1446.61	38.84%
20	1998-10-11	35.88	@ St. Louis Rams	30	1407.67	49.28%	New York Jets	10	1503.78	50.51%
21	1998-11-01	35.70	Jacksonville Jaguars	45	1574.73	55.73%	@ Baltimore Ravens	19	1442.18	44.06%
22	1998-10-25	35.61	@ New York Jets	28	1508.09	54.96%	Atlanta Falcons	3	1564.61	44.83%
23	1998-10-11	35.39	@ New England Patriots	40	1583.33	59.13%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1610.23	40.66%
24	1998-12-27	35.13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	35	1497.73	62.42%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	0	1316.89	37.36%
25	1998-10-11	34.45	Atlanta Falcons	34	1519.46	41.80%	@ New York Giants	20	1484.37	57.98%