1981 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Cincinnati Bengals

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

San Francisco 49ers

4.36 wins above expected

13 wins · 8.64 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New England Patriots

5.74 wins below expected

2 wins · 7.74 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	12	4	.750	—	421	304	+117	8.58	+3.42
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	8	.500	4	356	297	+59	8.96	-0.96
3	Houston Oilers	7	9	.438	5	281	355	-74	7.94	-0.94
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	11	.312	7	276	375	-99	7.16	-2.16

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	4	1	.719	—	345	275	+70	8.98	+2.52
2	New York Jets Playoffs	10	5	1	.656	1	355	287	+68	8.29	+2.21
3	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	10	6	0	.625	1.5	311	276	+35	8.81	+1.19
4	New England Patriots	2	14	0	.125	9.5	322	370	-48	7.74	-5.74
5	Baltimore Colts	2	14	0	.125	9.5	259	533	-274	5.17	-3.17

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	10	6	.625	—	478	390	+88	9.58	+0.42
2	Denver Broncos	10	6	.625	—	321	289	+32	8.78	+1.22
3	Kansas City Chiefs	9	7	.562	1	343	290	+53	8.41	+0.59
4	Oakland Raiders	7	9	.438	3	273	343	-70	8.32	-1.32
5	Seattle Seahawks	6	10	.375	4	322	388	-66	6.42	-0.42

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	9	7	.562	—	315	268	+47	7.75	+1.25
2	Detroit Lions	8	8	.500	1	397	322	+75	8.29	-0.29
3	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	1	324	361	-37	6.90	+1.10
4	Minnesota Vikings	7	9	.438	2	325	369	-44	8.06	-1.06
5	Chicago Bears	6	10	.375	3	253	324	-71	6.63	-0.63

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	—	367	277	+90	10.09	+1.91
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	368	221	+147	10.26	-0.26
3	New York Giants Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	295	257	+38	7.20	+1.80
4	Washington Redskins	8	8	.500	4	347	349	-2	7.11	+0.89
5	St. Louis Cardinals	7	9	.438	5	315	408	-93	6.94	+0.06

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	3	.812	—	357	250	+107	8.64	+4.36
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	6	426	355	+71	9.04	-2.04
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	10	.375	7	303	351	-48	8.28	-2.28
4	New Orleans Saints	4	12	.250	9	207	378	-171	5.67	-1.67

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Buffalo Bills 31

New York Jets 27

Dec 27

Divisional Round

San Diego Chargers 41

Miami Dolphins 38

Jan 2

Cincinnati Bengals 28

Buffalo Bills 21

Jan 3

Conference Championship

Cincinnati Bengals 27

San Diego Chargers 7

Jan 10

NFC

Wild Card Round

New York Giants 27

Philadelphia Eagles 21

Dec 27

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

Jan 2

San Francisco 49ers 38

New York Giants 24

Jan 3

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 28

Dallas Cowboys 27

Jan 10

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 26

Cincinnati Bengals 21

Jan 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1623	12	10.09	+1.91	91.30%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1618	13	8.64	+4.36	99.63%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1611	12	8.58	+3.42	98.08%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1592	10	10.26	-0.26	55.51%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1587	11.5	8.98	+2.52	91.69%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1587	10	9.58	+0.42	68.97%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1556	8	8.96	-0.96	40.80%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1556	10.5	8.29	+2.21	88.28%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1545	10	8.78	+1.22	81.86%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1538	10	8.81	+1.19	81.32%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1533	8	8.29	-0.29	54.91%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1532	9	8.41	+0.59	71.95%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1524	7	9.04	-2.04	21.31%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1519	9	7.75	+1.25	82.67%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1510	9	7.20	+1.80	89.38%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1509	8	7.11	+0.89	78.46%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1468	8	6.90	+1.10	80.45%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1461	7	8.32	-1.32	33.71%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1455	6	8.28	-2.28	17.70%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1452	7	7.94	-0.94	40.98%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1452	7	8.06	-1.06	39.13%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1449	6	6.63	-0.63	48.40%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1446	6	6.42	-0.42	53.54%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1442	7	6.94	+0.06	61.96%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1408	5	7.16	-2.16	19.72%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1406	2	7.74	-5.74	0.38%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1334	4	5.67	-1.67	28.09%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1287	2	5.17	-3.17	6.27%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	—
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-4 (2.0 exp.)	—
New York Jets	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	4-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	3-0 (1.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.34%	1.56%	1.12%	0.67%	—	5.58%
7–13	0.89%	4.46%	6.25%	4.91%	1.56%	2.01%	0.45%	20.54%
14–20	1.34%	6.25%	7.14%	4.02%	4.69%	1.34%	0.89%	25.67%
21–27	1.56%	4.91%	4.02%	7.14%	2.68%	1.79%	1.12%	23.21%
28–34	1.12%	1.56%	4.69%	2.68%	4.46%	0.45%	0.45%	15.40%
35–41	0.67%	2.01%	1.34%	1.79%	0.45%	0.45%	—	6.70%
42+	—	0.45%	0.89%	1.12%	0.45%	—	—	2.90%
Total	5.58%	20.54%	25.67%	23.21%	15.40%	6.70%	2.90%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.67	20.67	+0.00
SD	10.14	10.14	14.95
CV	0.49	0.49	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.62	22.19	+4.44
SD	8.99	9.42	13.41
CV	0.34	0.42	—
Max	41	37	+31
Min	13	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—	25.00%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.19	33.31	-17.12
SD	8.59	7.21	10.86
CV	0.53	0.22	—
Max	29	43	+2
Min	0	21	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.44	17.25	+2.19
SD	9.60	9.27	15.32
CV	0.49	0.54	—
Max	35	33	+32
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.81	20.25	-4.44
SD	8.21	9.73	12.45
CV	0.52	0.48	—
Max	35	48	+17
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.31	19.00	+7.31
SD	12.31	6.14	12.97
CV	0.47	0.32	—
Max	41	30	+27
Min	3	7	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	23.44	-6.19
SD	8.99	11.22	12.26
CV	0.52	0.48	—
Max	42	44	+14
Min	3	9	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	31.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.94	17.31	+5.62
SD	8.15	9.37	12.61
CV	0.36	0.54	—
Max	37	45	+24
Min	10	9	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.06	18.06	+2.00
SD	8.60	11.20	12.20
CV	0.43	0.62	—
Max	42	38	+18
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.81	20.12	+4.69
SD	10.37	9.74	15.44
CV	0.42	0.48	—
Max	48	33	+38
Min	10	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.25	22.56	-2.31
SD	11.40	9.13	16.38
CV	0.56	0.40	—
Max	35	37	+28
Min	3	7	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	22.19	-4.62
SD	7.95	9.56	12.18
CV	0.45	0.43	—
Max	35	38	+18
Min	6	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.44	18.12	+3.31
SD	9.80	10.91	13.43
CV	0.46	0.60	—
Max	40	42	+27
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.94	21.94	-3.00
SD	10.32	8.02	11.84
CV	0.54	0.37	—
Max	37	35	+17
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.56	17.19	+4.38
SD	6.50	9.97	9.24
CV	0.30	0.58	—
Max	31	33	+20
Min	13	6	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	23.06	-2.75
SD	9.42	10.88	14.54
CV	0.46	0.47	—
Max	35	45	+17
Min	6	10	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	23.12	-3.00
SD	9.19	6.68	10.71
CV	0.46	0.29	—
Max	38	35	+28
Min	3	10	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.94	23.62	-10.69
SD	7.39	8.53	13.42
CV	0.57	0.36	—
Max	27	41	+10
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	25.00%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.44	16.06	+2.38
SD	8.48	9.17	13.37
CV	0.46	0.57	—
Max	34	30	+32
Min	7	0	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	17.94	+4.25
SD	11.30	11.07	17.94
CV	0.51	0.62	—
Max	41	38	+27
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.06	21.44	-4.38
SD	12.32	11.20	16.03
CV	0.72	0.52	—
Max	36	55	+26
Min	0	9	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	43.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	13.81	+9.19
SD	12.60	7.77	16.59
CV	0.55	0.56	—
Max	52	35	+42
Min	10	0	-12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	18.56	+3.69
SD	9.51	10.65	15.23
CV	0.43	0.57	—
Max	38	37	+28
Min	7	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	43.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.88	24.38	+5.50
SD	10.87	10.98	17.37
CV	0.36	0.45	—
Max	55	44	+34
Min	17	10	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	6.25%	56.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	15.62	+6.69
SD	8.55	8.59	11.36
CV	0.38	0.55	—
Max	45	34	+31
Min	12	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	24.25	-4.12
SD	11.71	9.32	15.37
CV	0.58	0.38	—
Max	44	40	+21
Min	0	3	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	25.50	-5.81
SD	10.96	13.92	20.40
CV	0.56	0.55	—
Max	40	52	+27
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	16.75	+2.94
SD	8.14	7.07	13.78
CV	0.41	0.42	—
Max	37	28	+34
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.69	21.81	-0.12
SD	11.11	9.70	14.75
CV	0.51	0.44	—
Max	42	40	+24
Min	7	7	-23

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	13	8.64	+4.36
2	Cincinnati Bengals	12	8.58	+3.42
3	Miami Dolphins	11.5	8.98	+2.52
4	New York Jets	10.5	8.29	+2.21
5	Dallas Cowboys	12	10.09	+1.91

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	2	7.74	-5.74
2	Baltimore Colts	2	5.17	-3.17
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	8.28	-2.28
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	7.16	-2.16
5	Atlanta Falcons	7	9.04	-2.04

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Francisco 49ers	7	Sep 27 – Nov 8	1 in 98
2	Minnesota Vikings	5	Sep 20 – Oct 18	1 in 56
3	New York Jets	5	Nov 1 – Nov 29	1 in 26
4	Cincinnati Bengals	5	Nov 1 – Nov 29	1 in 22
5	Chicago Bears	3	Dec 6 – Dec 20	1 in 21

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	9	Oct 25 – Dec 20	1 in 433
2	Baltimore Colts	14	Sep 13 – Dec 13	1 in 316
3	Minnesota Vikings	5	Nov 23 – Dec 20	1 in 48
4	Los Angeles Rams	5	Nov 8 – Dec 6	1 in 44
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 22 – Dec 13	1 in 40

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.89%	27.59%	20.37%	13.15%
Cincinnati Bengals	30.64%	28.13%	23.80%	17.43%
Houston Oilers	19.30%	25.60%	28.79%	26.31%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	11.17%	18.68%	27.04%	43.11%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	34.36%	27.15%	20.73%	13.67%	4.09%
Buffalo Bills	29.78%	26.56%	22.05%	16.10%	5.51%
New York Jets	20.18%	23.80%	24.66%	22.33%	9.03%
New England Patriots	14.52%	19.04%	24.39%	28.07%	13.98%
Baltimore Colts	1.16%	3.45%	8.17%	19.83%	67.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	37.61%	26.32%	18.50%	12.21%	5.36%
Denver Broncos	23.49%	24.08%	22.27%	18.55%	11.61%
Kansas City Chiefs	18.28%	21.51%	22.79%	22.91%	14.51%
Oakland Raiders	17.48%	21.10%	23.85%	22.24%	15.33%
Seattle Seahawks	3.14%	6.99%	12.59%	24.09%	53.19%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	32.14%	24.64%	19.97%	13.75%	9.50%
Minnesota Vikings	26.66%	24.13%	20.30%	16.21%	12.70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21.35%	22.20%	21.87%	19.47%	15.11%
Green Bay Packers	10.73%	15.65%	19.44%	24.62%	29.56%
Chicago Bears	9.12%	13.38%	18.42%	25.95%	33.13%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	45.68%	32.46%	14.06%	5.67%	2.13%
Dallas Cowboys	41.48%	33.87%	14.75%	7.00%	2.90%
New York Giants	4.67%	12.12%	24.34%	29.07%	29.80%
Washington Redskins	4.57%	10.93%	24.18%	30.06%	30.26%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.60%	10.62%	22.67%	28.20%	34.91%

Team	1	2	3	4
Atlanta Falcons	40.93%	30.39%	21.37%	7.31%
San Francisco 49ers	31.10%	32.55%	26.67%	9.68%
Los Angeles Rams	24.86%	29.30%	32.55%	13.29%
New Orleans Saints	3.11%	7.76%	19.41%	69.72%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Diego Chargers	18.77%	13.07%	11.05%	9.92%	9.03%	7.58%	6.66%	5.51%	5.41%	4.17%	3.13%	2.86%	1.98%	0.86%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.59%	11.45%	10.50%	9.58%	8.74%	8.29%	7.97%	7.01%	6.32%	5.27%	5.12%	4.63%	2.46%	1.07%
Miami Dolphins	10.98%	11.24%	10.89%	9.53%	9.33%	8.82%	7.42%	6.93%	6.31%	5.87%	5.04%	3.69%	2.39%	1.56%
Buffalo Bills	10.06%	9.85%	9.84%	9.13%	8.03%	8.83%	7.73%	7.85%	6.97%	6.21%	5.70%	4.71%	2.90%	2.19%
Denver Broncos	10.12%	8.88%	8.77%	8.62%	9.01%	8.12%	7.69%	7.75%	6.87%	6.72%	5.85%	5.07%	4.14%	2.39%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.88%	9.61%	9.21%	8.06%	8.99%	8.37%	7.83%	7.79%	8.02%	7.06%	5.72%	5.93%	3.63%	1.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.23%	7.45%	7.47%	8.15%	7.79%	7.36%	8.23%	7.93%	7.92%	7.89%	7.58%	6.33%	5.54%	3.13%
Oakland Raiders	6.92%	6.72%	6.80%	7.93%	8.15%	7.72%	8.67%	7.91%	7.92%	7.57%	7.50%	6.58%	6.15%	3.46%
New York Jets	5.45%	7.07%	7.55%	7.92%	7.90%	8.76%	8.16%	8.08%	7.67%	8.39%	7.62%	6.05%	5.28%	4.10%
Houston Oilers	4.32%	5.69%	6.55%	6.95%	7.53%	8.02%	8.21%	9.42%	8.66%	8.64%	8.04%	8.07%	6.73%	3.17%
New England Patriots	3.83%	4.59%	5.27%	6.10%	6.72%	7.43%	7.57%	8.29%	8.49%	8.87%	9.65%	9.08%	7.43%	6.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.88%	3.00%	3.93%	4.84%	4.94%	5.84%	7.25%	7.30%	9.28%	9.68%	10.48%	13.09%	11.52%	6.97%
Seattle Seahawks	0.83%	1.14%	1.79%	2.50%	2.90%	3.51%	4.63%	5.44%	6.32%	8.80%	10.58%	13.08%	20.18%	18.30%
Baltimore Colts	0.14%	0.24%	0.38%	0.77%	0.94%	1.35%	1.98%	2.79%	3.84%	4.86%	7.99%	10.83%	19.67%	44.22%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Philadelphia Eagles	28.97%	17.32%	13.08%	11.00%	8.00%	6.06%	4.72%	3.62%	2.65%	1.60%	1.37%	0.74%	0.57%	0.30%
Dallas Cowboys	26.22%	16.39%	12.67%	11.04%	8.58%	6.64%	5.41%	3.43%	3.22%	2.33%	1.61%	1.27%	0.74%	0.45%
Atlanta Falcons	11.28%	13.77%	11.96%	10.59%	9.77%	8.97%	7.88%	6.60%	5.76%	4.31%	3.53%	2.99%	1.70%	0.89%
San Francisco 49ers	7.25%	10.05%	10.36%	10.43%	10.29%	10.03%	8.64%	8.03%	7.83%	5.30%	4.57%	3.37%	2.60%	1.25%
Detroit Lions	5.66%	8.59%	10.36%	8.91%	8.95%	9.02%	8.98%	7.90%	7.04%	6.42%	6.14%	4.66%	4.01%	3.36%
Los Angeles Rams	5.49%	8.18%	8.67%	8.62%	9.64%	9.78%	8.66%	8.85%	8.72%	6.94%	6.15%	4.84%	3.37%	2.09%
Minnesota Vikings	4.37%	7.39%	8.43%	8.12%	9.14%	8.71%	8.31%	8.06%	7.38%	7.30%	7.07%	5.74%	5.60%	4.38%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.08%	5.80%	6.80%	7.04%	8.18%	8.51%	8.47%	8.73%	8.19%	8.48%	7.80%	7.15%	6.07%	5.70%
New York Giants	1.95%	2.62%	3.74%	4.85%	5.62%	6.21%	7.78%	8.61%	8.75%	10.05%	10.13%	9.98%	10.16%	9.55%
Washington Redskins	1.83%	2.41%	3.45%	4.72%	4.60%	6.15%	7.49%	8.38%	9.22%	10.13%	11.05%	10.68%	10.02%	9.87%
Green Bay Packers	1.24%	2.75%	3.40%	4.94%	5.68%	5.89%	6.51%	7.53%	8.02%	9.33%	9.71%	10.82%	11.47%	12.71%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.44%	2.06%	2.80%	4.51%	4.81%	5.97%	7.24%	8.05%	8.40%	10.05%	10.16%	10.32%	12.41%	11.78%
Chicago Bears	0.85%	1.90%	3.14%	3.77%	4.44%	5.19%	6.14%	7.39%	8.07%	9.98%	10.28%	11.57%	12.76%	14.52%
New Orleans Saints	0.37%	0.77%	1.14%	1.46%	2.30%	2.87%	3.77%	4.82%	6.75%	7.78%	10.43%	15.87%	18.52%	23.15%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Philadelphia Eagles	16.77%	12.40%	9.30%	8.21%	6.45%	6.24%	5.69%	5.01%	3.61%	4.28%	2.98%	3.02%	2.25%	2.62%	1.89%	1.80%	1.39%	1.36%	0.88%	0.77%	0.75%	0.79%	0.45%	0.32%	0.26%	0.27%	0.15%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	15.41%	11.28%	8.84%	7.84%	6.23%	6.06%	5.45%	4.98%	4.12%	4.31%	3.45%	2.92%	2.58%	2.90%	1.91%	1.86%	1.89%	1.59%	1.05%	1.27%	0.87%	0.71%	0.72%	0.66%	0.35%	0.35%	0.23%	0.17%
San Diego Chargers	9.82%	8.84%	7.44%	6.40%	5.83%	5.87%	5.67%	4.70%	4.81%	4.22%	3.81%	3.53%	3.52%	2.89%	2.95%	2.89%	2.85%	2.24%	1.96%	1.78%	1.61%	1.54%	1.41%	1.04%	1.00%	0.65%	0.44%	0.29%
Atlanta Falcons	5.86%	6.22%	6.39%	6.11%	5.56%	5.73%	5.21%	5.39%	4.26%	5.08%	4.28%	4.54%	3.86%	4.08%	3.23%	3.18%	3.15%	3.14%	2.25%	2.22%	1.92%	1.97%	1.78%	1.55%	1.13%	0.94%	0.68%	0.29%
Miami Dolphins	4.97%	6.07%	6.10%	5.04%	5.84%	5.58%	5.20%	4.58%	5.23%	4.42%	4.45%	4.27%	4.12%	3.55%	3.59%	3.38%	3.10%	2.98%	2.93%	2.91%	2.34%	2.29%	1.97%	1.63%	1.27%	0.91%	0.80%	0.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.72%	5.77%	5.72%	6.02%	5.47%	5.13%	5.11%	4.68%	4.83%	4.23%	4.72%	3.88%	3.99%	3.81%	3.95%	3.04%	3.26%	2.80%	2.74%	2.53%	2.63%	2.33%	1.87%	2.22%	1.21%	1.21%	0.78%	0.35%
Buffalo Bills	5.16%	4.98%	5.40%	4.64%	5.20%	4.78%	4.99%	4.40%	4.26%	4.36%	4.94%	4.01%	4.08%	3.55%	4.27%	3.63%	3.61%	3.17%	3.10%	3.22%	2.56%	2.73%	2.47%	1.84%	1.64%	1.19%	1.02%	0.80%
San Francisco 49ers	3.73%	3.84%	4.62%	4.76%	4.94%	5.04%	5.05%	5.10%	4.67%	4.87%	4.00%	5.60%	4.48%	4.80%	3.85%	3.89%	3.44%	4.13%	2.90%	3.14%	2.42%	2.68%	2.07%	1.67%	1.41%	1.41%	1.01%	0.48%
Denver Broncos	4.66%	4.98%	5.12%	4.80%	4.77%	4.47%	4.76%	4.33%	4.92%	4.25%	4.72%	4.00%	3.90%	3.34%	4.15%	3.75%	3.65%	2.98%	3.48%	2.95%	2.99%	2.84%	2.26%	2.14%	2.22%	1.55%	1.27%	0.75%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.65%	4.38%	4.95%	4.82%	4.90%	4.24%	4.50%	4.02%	4.87%	4.26%	4.67%	3.92%	4.12%	3.58%	4.37%	3.65%	3.75%	3.63%	3.68%	3.36%	3.41%	2.76%	2.51%	2.52%	1.85%	1.59%	1.22%	0.82%
Detroit Lions	2.58%	3.16%	3.84%	4.57%	4.19%	4.91%	4.02%	4.94%	4.16%	4.21%	4.17%	4.51%	4.56%	4.85%	3.49%	3.89%	3.83%	3.82%	3.28%	3.58%	3.26%	3.00%	2.83%	2.76%	2.44%	2.03%	1.69%	1.43%
Los Angeles Rams	2.54%	3.14%	3.68%	4.09%	4.02%	4.15%	3.85%	4.55%	4.58%	4.75%	4.15%	4.76%	4.52%	4.81%	3.84%	4.12%	3.96%	4.72%	3.78%	3.70%	3.18%	3.26%	2.83%	2.79%	1.97%	1.81%	1.29%	1.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.28%	3.65%	3.71%	4.25%	4.25%	3.79%	4.55%	4.13%	3.68%	4.04%	4.59%	3.86%	4.15%	3.49%	4.62%	3.93%	4.01%	3.60%	3.97%	3.55%	3.75%	3.26%	3.40%	3.16%	2.29%	2.17%	1.86%	1.01%
Oakland Raiders	2.90%	3.80%	3.49%	3.69%	3.72%	3.51%	4.38%	4.04%	4.34%	3.90%	4.59%	3.95%	4.07%	3.80%	4.39%	4.26%	4.22%	3.54%	3.80%	3.56%	3.98%	3.25%	3.34%	2.87%	3.08%	2.52%	1.69%	1.32%
New York Jets	2.60%	2.83%	3.49%	3.76%	3.84%	3.95%	4.31%	4.19%	4.27%	4.07%	4.55%	4.41%	4.19%	3.65%	4.21%	4.48%	3.79%	3.76%	4.02%	3.95%	4.10%	3.29%	2.70%	3.11%	2.85%	2.23%	2.08%	1.32%
Minnesota Vikings	2.11%	2.37%	3.31%	3.56%	3.78%	4.12%	3.65%	4.44%	3.99%	4.47%	3.90%	4.46%	4.03%	4.66%	3.85%	3.85%	3.86%	4.11%	3.61%	4.02%	3.24%	3.79%	3.48%	3.22%	2.96%	3.11%	2.26%	1.79%
Houston Oilers	1.53%	2.38%	3.00%	3.00%	3.53%	3.75%	3.29%	3.36%	4.29%	3.81%	4.11%	3.93%	4.40%	4.00%	4.95%	4.42%	4.32%	4.23%	4.38%	3.94%	4.12%	3.85%	4.17%	3.32%	3.31%	3.01%	2.12%	1.48%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.47%	1.73%	2.46%	2.93%	2.96%	3.30%	3.25%	3.45%	3.78%	4.02%	3.93%	4.15%	4.30%	4.62%	3.82%	4.33%	4.29%	4.58%	4.06%	4.48%	3.63%	4.14%	3.68%	4.36%	3.55%	3.16%	3.16%	2.41%
New England Patriots	1.60%	2.16%	2.28%	2.46%	3.03%	2.53%	3.18%	3.34%	3.53%	3.61%	4.11%	3.49%	3.86%	3.71%	4.43%	4.14%	4.54%	3.88%	4.58%	4.58%	4.38%	4.53%	4.56%	4.18%	3.74%	3.32%	3.73%	2.52%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.61%	1.03%	1.30%	1.68%	2.20%	2.28%	2.33%	2.29%	2.78%	2.44%	2.88%	3.30%	3.71%	3.57%	3.87%	4.10%	4.15%	4.53%	5.29%	4.61%	5.21%	4.90%	6.21%	5.88%	5.65%	5.16%	4.47%	3.57%
New York Giants	0.78%	1.09%	1.02%	1.34%	1.87%	2.05%	2.23%	2.42%	2.66%	2.98%	3.13%	3.14%	3.50%	3.85%	3.74%	4.43%	4.58%	4.42%	5.06%	5.05%	4.83%	5.24%	5.14%	5.21%	5.46%	5.17%	5.31%	4.30%
Washington Redskins	0.65%	1.06%	1.09%	1.20%	1.69%	1.90%	1.96%	2.38%	2.04%	2.74%	2.69%	3.13%	3.34%	4.24%	3.51%	4.35%	4.37%	4.76%	4.92%	5.10%	5.60%	5.55%	5.59%	5.60%	5.54%	5.35%	5.15%	4.50%
Green Bay Packers	0.46%	0.83%	0.84%	1.39%	1.48%	1.73%	1.88%	2.60%	2.73%	2.73%	2.67%	3.00%	3.10%	3.77%	3.50%	3.72%	3.56%	4.34%	4.80%	4.82%	4.72%	5.18%	5.58%	5.49%	6.16%	6.05%	6.60%	6.27%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.53%	0.80%	0.92%	1.19%	1.34%	1.55%	2.03%	2.23%	2.34%	2.41%	2.68%	3.14%	3.19%	3.56%	3.76%	4.36%	3.91%	4.43%	4.50%	5.12%	4.99%	5.38%	5.21%	5.41%	6.04%	6.84%	6.04%	6.10%
Chicago Bears	0.32%	0.46%	0.72%	1.01%	1.44%	1.54%	1.47%	1.95%	2.06%	2.10%	2.18%	2.61%	3.01%	3.22%	3.23%	3.29%	4.03%	4.68%	4.49%	5.23%	5.10%	5.58%	5.45%	6.40%	6.46%	7.31%	7.33%	7.33%
Seattle Seahawks	0.20%	0.47%	0.61%	0.71%	0.79%	0.90%	1.17%	1.31%	1.70%	1.74%	1.78%	2.17%	2.44%	2.20%	3.05%	3.36%	3.52%	3.01%	4.52%	4.17%	5.63%	5.41%	6.54%	6.89%	8.67%	9.09%	8.96%	8.99%
New Orleans Saints	0.05%	0.21%	0.23%	0.41%	0.54%	0.67%	0.48%	0.79%	0.94%	1.23%	1.20%	1.54%	1.72%	1.83%	1.99%	2.42%	3.03%	3.55%	3.44%	3.67%	4.86%	5.64%	6.19%	7.92%	8.68%	10.52%	11.63%	14.62%
Baltimore Colts	0.04%	0.07%	0.13%	0.12%	0.14%	0.23%	0.34%	0.40%	0.55%	0.47%	0.67%	0.76%	1.01%	1.05%	1.59%	1.48%	1.94%	2.02%	2.53%	2.72%	3.92%	4.11%	5.59%	5.84%	8.81%	11.08%	17.03%	25.36%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	18.77%	11.78%	7.06%	13.52%	9.85%	39.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.59%	12.41%	14.89%	7.10%	7.43%	46.58%
Miami Dolphins	10.98%	11.94%	11.44%	8.57%	9.02%	48.05%
Denver Broncos	10.12%	7.69%	5.68%	10.89%	10.09%	55.53%
Buffalo Bills	10.06%	10.30%	9.42%	8.87%	8.17%	53.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.88%	10.05%	12.71%	6.54%	7.66%	55.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.23%	6.29%	4.76%	10.44%	8.55%	62.73%
Oakland Raiders	6.92%	6.11%	4.45%	9.18%	8.73%	64.61%
New York Jets	5.45%	7.37%	7.36%	7.28%	8.26%	64.28%
Houston Oilers	4.32%	6.41%	8.57%	5.61%	6.94%	68.15%
New England Patriots	3.83%	4.95%	5.74%	5.24%	6.80%	73.44%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.88%	3.31%	5.98%	3.64%	4.53%	80.66%
Seattle Seahawks	0.83%	1.14%	1.17%	2.55%	3.11%	91.20%
Baltimore Colts	0.14%	0.25%	0.77%	0.57%	0.86%	97.41%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	28.97%	11.97%	4.74%	21.34%	10.38%	22.60%
Dallas Cowboys	26.22%	11.11%	4.15%	21.81%	10.72%	25.99%
Atlanta Falcons	11.28%	16.01%	13.64%	8.00%	9.16%	41.91%
San Francisco 49ers	7.25%	11.76%	12.09%	7.71%	9.89%	51.30%
Detroit Lions	5.66%	10.75%	15.73%	4.34%	7.12%	56.40%
Los Angeles Rams	5.49%	9.73%	9.64%	6.64%	9.30%	59.20%
Minnesota Vikings	4.37%	9.21%	13.08%	4.29%	7.39%	61.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.08%	7.28%	10.99%	3.43%	6.99%	68.23%
New York Giants	1.95%	1.72%	1.00%	6.24%	6.56%	82.53%
Washington Redskins	1.83%	1.80%	0.94%	5.78%	5.59%	84.06%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.44%	1.25%	0.91%	5.06%	6.11%	85.23%
Green Bay Packers	1.24%	3.67%	5.82%	2.57%	5.01%	81.69%
Chicago Bears	0.85%	2.62%	5.65%	1.82%	3.65%	85.41%
New Orleans Saints	0.37%	1.12%	1.62%	0.97%	2.13%	93.79%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	63.22%	63.22%	41.39%	25.81%	14.68%
Philadelphia Eagles	66.24%	66.24%	41.72%	22.90%	11.96%
San Diego Chargers	51.21%	51.21%	29.93%	16.83%	8.54%
San Francisco 49ers	41.42%	41.42%	23.60%	13.54%	8.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	39.40%	39.40%	23.49%	13.66%	7.93%
Miami Dolphins	44.67%	44.67%	25.16%	14.16%	7.80%
Pittsburgh Steelers	46.69%	46.69%	24.44%	12.08%	5.74%
Buffalo Bills	38.59%	38.59%	20.41%	9.93%	4.89%
Atlanta Falcons	48.77%	48.77%	23.30%	10.28%	4.62%
Denver Broncos	34.51%	34.51%	17.85%	8.67%	4.13%
Detroit Lions	37.35%	37.35%	16.53%	7.33%	3.61%
New York Jets	28.50%	28.50%	14.42%	7.26%	3.54%
Kansas City Chiefs	28.32%	28.32%	13.82%	6.76%	2.87%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25.55%	25.55%	11.04%	4.34%	1.99%
Los Angeles Rams	30.54%	30.54%	11.41%	4.23%	1.66%
Minnesota Vikings	30.80%	30.80%	10.03%	3.81%	1.44%
Oakland Raiders	24.74%	24.74%	9.81%	3.68%	1.28%
Houston Oilers	24.03%	24.03%	8.90%	3.26%	1.04%
New York Giants	12.80%	10.55%	4.84%	2.15%	1.03%
Green Bay Packers	13.71%	13.71%	4.60%	1.63%	0.67%
Washington Redskins	11.37%	9.80%	4.58%	1.78%	0.60%
New England Patriots	18.52%	18.52%	5.57%	1.74%	0.56%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	13.89%	13.89%	4.13%	1.26%	0.45%
Chicago Bears	10.96%	10.96%	3.47%	1.08%	0.32%
Seattle Seahawks	5.66%	5.50%	1.85%	0.65%	0.28%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.17%	7.19%	2.68%	0.88%	0.28%
New Orleans Saints	3.90%	3.90%	0.81%	0.24%	0.05%
Baltimore Colts	1.43%	1.43%	0.22%	0.06%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.03%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.05%		0.57%	0.47%	1.27%	0.60%	1.02%	0.38%	0.40%	0.47%	1.26%	0.69%	1.19%	0.44%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.13%	0.84%		0.31%	0.92%	0.41%	1.01%	0.79%	0.78%	0.54%	1.03%	0.29%	1.32%	0.39%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.05%	0.15%	0.04%		0.39%	0.13%	0.33%	0.16%	0.31%	0.22%	0.43%	0.07%	0.32%	0.12%
Denver Broncos	0.16%	1.44%	0.59%	0.69%		1.07%	0.87%	1.05%	1.23%	1.11%	0.86%	1.00%	0.69%	0.26%
Houston Oilers	0.06%	0.37%	0.12%	0.11%	0.65%		0.63%	0.43%	0.49%	0.36%	0.67%	0.13%	0.57%	0.14%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.25%	1.07%	0.72%	0.77%	0.73%	0.94%		1.00%	0.87%	1.01%	0.82%	0.85%	0.79%	0.22%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%	0.40%	0.74%	0.52%	1.42%	0.92%	1.15%		0.52%	0.55%	1.41%	0.74%	1.40%	0.49%
New England Patriots	0.03%	0.24%	0.20%	0.27%	0.50%	0.44%	0.47%	0.17%		0.14%	0.61%	0.22%	0.55%	0.16%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.40%	0.63%	0.45%	1.21%	0.62%	0.96%	0.35%	0.40%		1.22%	0.63%	1.05%	0.35%
Oakland Raiders	0.07%	0.82%	0.48%	0.62%	0.70%	0.76%	0.48%	0.62%	0.75%	0.74%		0.52%	0.58%	0.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.12%	0.62%	0.16%	0.28%	1.08%	0.32%	0.86%	0.73%	0.64%	0.61%	0.97%		1.13%	0.28%
San Diego Chargers	0.11%	1.55%	0.94%	0.82%	0.87%	1.37%	1.02%	1.36%	1.36%	1.31%	1.18%	1.40%		0.31%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	0.32%	0.23%	0.13%	0.17%	0.19%	0.12%	0.24%	0.27%	0.15%	0.17%	0.18%	0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.25%	1.54%	0.45%	0.31%	0.37%	0.64%	0.08%	0.65%	1.60%	0.29%	0.70%	0.37%	0.59%
Chicago Bears	0.15%		0.38%	0.02%	0.01%	0.16%	0.06%	0.08%	0.20%	0.27%	0.10%	0.22%	0.06%	0.13%
Dallas Cowboys	2.90%	1.00%		1.86%	1.19%	3.01%	1.92%	0.67%	1.35%	0.89%	2.52%	1.46%	1.77%	1.20%
Detroit Lions	0.48%	0.05%	0.89%		0.11%	0.39%	0.15%	0.13%	0.49%	1.07%	0.37%	0.52%	0.15%	0.41%
Green Bay Packers	0.29%	0.05%	0.50%	0.10%		0.24%	0.10%	0.06%	0.26%	0.49%	0.24%	0.33%	0.07%	0.25%
Los Angeles Rams	0.26%	0.21%	1.21%	0.30%	0.20%		0.39%	0.05%	0.49%	0.94%	0.18%	0.62%	0.35%	0.48%
Minnesota Vikings	0.44%	0.09%	0.66%	0.03%	0.05%	0.51%		0.11%	0.38%	0.71%	0.28%	0.51%	0.06%	0.31%
New Orleans Saints	0.05%	0.01%	0.11%	0.03%	0.02%	0.06%	0.05%		0.09%	0.16%	0.05%	0.04%	0.04%	0.08%
New York Giants	0.57%	0.31%	0.76%	0.44%	0.34%	0.74%	0.48%	0.17%		0.78%	0.40%	0.24%	0.44%	0.21%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.54%	0.97%	0.76%	1.78%	1.23%	2.69%	2.37%	0.57%	1.32%		1.92%	1.42%	1.78%	1.21%
San Francisco 49ers	0.31%	0.23%	2.03%	0.53%	0.50%	0.60%	0.64%	0.09%	0.97%	2.20%		0.94%	0.49%	0.79%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.48%	0.17%	0.46%	0.23%	0.16%	0.54%	0.20%	0.16%	0.14%	0.48%	0.24%		0.16%	0.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.35%	0.03%	0.88%	0.08%	0.09%	0.34%	0.13%	0.06%	0.36%	0.87%	0.30%	0.40%		0.31%
Washington Redskins	0.50%	0.26%	0.61%	0.40%	0.39%	0.61%	0.41%	0.08%	0.22%	0.70%	0.39%	0.18%	0.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.02%				0.02%	0.03%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills			1.90%	1.48%	2.49%	2.23%	2.50%				2.27%	3.59%	3.20%	0.75%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.08%	2.89%			2.95%		2.68%	3.08%	1.85%	2.42%	3.02%		3.92%	0.60%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.03%	0.45%			0.51%		0.46%	0.49%	0.56%	0.40%	0.56%		0.55%	0.12%
Denver Broncos	0.18%	2.59%	2.17%	1.30%		1.95%		2.65%	1.93%	2.01%		3.07%
Houston Oilers	0.10%	1.19%			1.21%		1.00%	1.21%	0.79%	0.77%	1.11%		1.35%	0.17%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.16%	2.00%	1.53%	1.15%		1.55%		2.15%	1.48%	1.60%		2.20%
Miami Dolphins			2.93%	1.54%	3.55%	2.42%	2.86%				2.94%	3.54%	4.63%	0.75%
New England Patriots			0.76%	0.41%	0.65%	0.53%	0.62%				0.59%	0.96%	0.82%	0.23%
New York Jets			1.59%	0.71%	1.99%	1.48%	1.85%				1.75%	1.95%	2.78%	0.32%
Oakland Raiders	0.16%	1.32%	1.26%	0.94%		1.15%		1.41%	0.95%	0.93%		1.69%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.21%	3.20%			3.27%		2.51%	3.55%	2.14%	2.16%	2.67%		4.02%	0.71%
San Diego Chargers	0.28%	4.21%	3.59%	2.04%		3.53%		4.69%	3.02%	3.63%		4.94%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	0.33%	0.17%	0.17%		0.22%		0.28%	0.23%	0.16%		0.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		1.17%	4.38%	2.87%	1.09%		2.69%		1.31%	5.41%		1.08%	2.11%	1.19%
Chicago Bears	0.55%		0.70%			0.51%		0.10%	0.16%	0.91%	0.26%	0.13%		0.15%
Dallas Cowboys	7.95%	1.98%		6.04%	2.79%	5.53%	6.19%	0.91%			5.93%		4.07%
Detroit Lions	2.76%		3.64%			2.15%		0.30%	0.82%	3.70%	1.55%	0.78%		0.83%
Green Bay Packers	0.74%		1.02%			0.52%		0.11%	0.23%	1.13%	0.52%	0.16%		0.17%
Los Angeles Rams		0.55%	2.09%	1.53%	0.64%		1.36%		0.66%	2.61%		0.46%	0.98%	0.53%
Minnesota Vikings	1.55%		2.13%			1.21%		0.24%	0.69%	2.28%	0.99%	0.37%		0.57%
New Orleans Saints		0.02%	0.09%	0.09%	0.08%		0.09%		0.05%	0.19%		0.02%	0.12%	0.06%
New York Giants	1.04%	0.20%		0.76%	0.23%	0.61%	0.78%	0.13%			0.57%		0.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.85%	2.31%		5.98%	2.62%	5.98%	5.94%	0.86%			6.09%		4.09%
San Francisco 49ers		0.88%	5.42%	2.50%	1.26%		2.58%		1.27%	5.64%		1.09%	1.82%	1.14%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.54%	0.16%		0.33%	0.18%	0.42%	0.42%	0.05%			0.35%		0.23%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.62%		2.36%			1.47%		0.29%	0.52%	2.65%	1.13%	0.42%		0.58%
Washington Redskins	0.87%	0.22%		0.72%	0.22%	0.73%	0.72%	0.10%			0.43%		0.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.01%				0.01%			0.01%		0.01%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills			1.16%	0.37%	0.86%	0.87%	0.71%	1.29%	0.31%	0.50%	0.60%	1.66%	1.51%	0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	1.73%		0.24%	1.24%	0.66%	1.05%	2.17%	0.54%	0.99%	1.08%	1.48%	2.32%	0.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		0.14%	0.12%		0.08%	0.05%	0.15%	0.12%	0.04%	0.10%	0.07%	0.14%	0.22%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	0.01%	0.92%	0.86%	0.29%		0.65%	0.62%	1.09%	0.35%	0.66%	0.59%	1.08%	1.41%	0.14%
Houston Oilers		0.38%	0.27%	0.06%	0.34%		0.27%	0.49%	0.16%	0.30%	0.21%	0.30%	0.44%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.83%	0.81%	0.22%	0.54%	0.42%		0.73%	0.28%	0.38%	0.39%	0.92%	1.15%	0.09%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%	1.54%	1.95%	0.46%	1.36%	0.77%	0.96%		0.50%	1.04%	0.96%	2.11%	2.29%	0.20%
New England Patriots		0.13%	0.17%	0.04%	0.16%	0.12%	0.19%	0.12%		0.07%	0.14%	0.15%	0.41%	0.04%
New York Jets		0.70%	0.78%	0.29%	0.83%	0.46%	0.53%	0.79%	0.24%		0.43%	1.13%	1.03%	0.05%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.44%	0.35%	0.13%	0.31%	0.22%	0.30%	0.48%	0.15%	0.38%		0.39%	0.48%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	1.63%	1.20%	0.19%	1.53%	0.46%	1.10%	1.63%	0.48%	1.21%	0.69%		1.73%	0.17%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	2.00%	2.09%	0.53%	1.88%	0.92%	1.13%	2.03%	0.75%	1.49%	0.94%	2.88%		0.18%
Seattle Seahawks	0.02%	0.04%	0.06%	0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	0.04%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.11%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.26%	2.05%	1.08%	0.41%	0.59%	0.72%	0.04%	0.36%	2.23%	1.17%	0.18%	0.94%	0.25%
Chicago Bears	0.18%		0.21%	0.05%	0.01%	0.07%	0.09%		0.02%	0.24%	0.09%	0.04%	0.05%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	3.81%	0.70%		2.71%	0.67%	1.90%	1.68%	0.19%	0.70%	7.42%	2.84%	0.53%	1.93%	0.73%
Detroit Lions	1.20%	0.10%	1.36%		0.15%	0.58%	0.26%	0.05%	0.15%	1.83%	0.99%	0.14%	0.28%	0.24%
Green Bay Packers	0.22%	0.01%	0.25%	0.13%		0.16%	0.06%		0.04%	0.33%	0.28%	0.05%	0.06%	0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	0.45%	0.14%	0.68%	0.48%	0.18%		0.30%	0.01%	0.17%	0.88%	0.39%	0.10%	0.33%	0.12%
Minnesota Vikings	0.63%	0.04%	0.68%	0.21%	0.08%	0.32%		0.07%	0.08%	0.86%	0.51%	0.06%	0.16%	0.11%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%		0.06%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%			0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%
New York Giants	0.20%	0.06%	0.28%	0.20%	0.06%	0.22%	0.19%	0.01%		0.47%	0.24%	0.03%	0.15%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.40%	0.61%	6.13%	2.62%	0.68%	1.96%	1.44%	0.16%	0.60%		2.62%	0.35%	1.51%	0.82%
San Francisco 49ers	2.02%	0.33%	2.61%	1.28%	0.48%	0.80%	1.01%	0.02%	0.36%	3.07%		0.23%	1.06%	0.27%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.12%	0.02%	0.14%	0.07%	0.05%	0.10%	0.03%		0.02%	0.16%	0.06%		0.10%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.52%	0.08%	0.82%	0.26%	0.13%	0.37%	0.24%		0.16%	0.85%	0.70%	0.07%		0.14%
Washington Redskins	0.26%	0.04%	0.31%	0.10%	0.04%	0.10%	0.18%	0.02%	0.03%	0.42%	0.16%	0.01%	0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.50%		0.55%	0.09%		0.56%			0.19%	0.39%		0.44%		0.12%			0.31%	0.21%		0.53%	0.69%		0.04%
Baltimore Colts				0.01%			0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.50%			0.07%			1.04%		0.40%	0.07%			0.24%		0.13%		0.03%	0.14%			1.28%			0.61%		0.06%	0.24%	0.08%
Chicago Bears			0.03%		0.03%			0.01%			0.02%	0.01%		0.08%		0.01%			0.02%			0.05%	0.05%		0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.81%			0.07%			1.85%		0.59%	0.22%			0.40%		0.39%			0.19%			1.80%			0.88%		0.09%	0.43%	0.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.07%			0.01%			0.08%		0.06%				0.02%		0.06%			0.01%			0.08%			0.04%		0.01%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys		0.01%	1.45%		1.70%	0.21%		1.24%			0.70%	1.00%		1.75%		0.28%			1.24%	0.78%		1.85%	2.35%		0.12%
Denver Broncos	0.53%			0.07%			0.97%		0.36%	0.11%			0.18%		0.18%		0.03%	0.07%			0.89%			0.37%		0.08%	0.09%	0.20%
Detroit Lions			0.41%		0.44%	0.05%		0.35%			0.15%	0.24%		0.55%		0.09%			0.23%	0.13%		0.41%	0.54%		0.02%
Green Bay Packers			0.07%		0.07%	0.02%		0.08%			0.01%	0.02%		0.11%		0.02%			0.08%	0.01%		0.09%	0.09%
Houston Oilers	0.13%			0.01%			0.17%		0.09%	0.05%			0.09%		0.06%			0.02%			0.24%			0.13%		0.01%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.25%			0.03%			0.69%		0.29%	0.04%			0.14%		0.07%			0.06%			0.63%			0.42%		0.03%	0.16%	0.06%
Los Angeles Rams			0.17%		0.13%	0.01%		0.16%			0.10%	0.13%		0.11%		0.08%			0.13%	0.08%		0.26%	0.28%		0.02%
Miami Dolphins	0.96%			0.15%			1.86%		0.46%	0.14%			0.52%		0.42%		0.02%	0.18%			1.68%			0.82%		0.07%	0.40%	0.12%
Minnesota Vikings			0.12%		0.11%	0.05%		0.09%			0.08%	0.18%		0.17%		0.03%			0.11%	0.08%		0.22%	0.20%
New England Patriots	0.08%						0.17%		0.04%						0.02%						0.08%			0.12%		0.01%	0.04%
New Orleans Saints											0.01%			0.01%									0.02%		0.01%
New York Giants			0.10%		0.13%			0.09%			0.02%	0.14%		0.11%		0.02%			0.09%	0.07%		0.10%	0.15%		0.01%
New York Jets	0.46%			0.04%			0.74%		0.31%	0.07%			0.10%		0.20%		0.01%	0.03%			0.84%			0.31%		0.08%	0.25%	0.10%
Oakland Raiders	0.12%			0.03%			0.32%		0.08%	0.04%			0.05%		0.06%			0.09%			0.19%			0.19%		0.01%	0.07%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.02%	1.13%		1.34%	0.14%		0.98%			0.52%	0.92%		1.62%		0.25%			0.83%	0.50%		1.47%	2.18%		0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.56%			0.12%			1.24%		0.31%	0.12%			0.38%		0.35%		0.04%	0.14%			1.29%			0.66%		0.09%	0.28%	0.16%
San Diego Chargers	1.13%			0.15%			1.94%		0.72%	0.10%			0.43%		0.42%		0.05%	0.19%			1.90%			0.92%		0.06%	0.33%	0.20%
San Francisco 49ers			0.85%		0.85%	0.16%		0.69%			0.34%	0.60%		1.06%		0.20%			0.48%	0.42%		1.08%	1.24%		0.05%
Seattle Seahawks	0.06%						0.05%		0.01%				0.02%		0.01%		0.01%				0.04%			0.05%			0.02%	0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals			0.02%		0.03%			0.03%			0.02%	0.01%		0.05%					0.02%	0.01%			0.08%		0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.01%	0.13%		0.20%	0.06%		0.23%			0.05%	0.19%		0.27%		0.06%			0.14%	0.08%		0.23%	0.34%
Washington Redskins			0.06%		0.15%	0.02%		0.03%			0.01%	0.06%		0.03%		0.02%			0.04%	0.03%		0.05%	0.08%		0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	66.21%	42.66%	22.39%	Won Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals	100.00%	67.53%	43.68%	21.57%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	75.41%	36.00%	18.94%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	62.51%	27.52%	13.47%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	37.49%	17.23%	8.06%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	72.14%	25.82%	10.69%	5.70%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	100.00%	24.59%	8.28%	3.76%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Jets	64.97%	21.18%	7.57%	3.20%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Buffalo Bills	35.03%	11.29%	4.00%	1.75%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Giants	27.86%	7.97%	2.37%	1.16%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	New York Jets
Buffalo Bills		35.03%
New York Jets	64.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants		27.86%
Philadelphia Eagles	72.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		11.29%
Cincinnati Bengals	23.74%			43.79%
Miami Dolphins					62.51%
New York Jets		21.18%
San Diego Chargers			37.49%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys					75.41%
New York Giants				7.97%
Philadelphia Eagles				25.82%
San Francisco 49ers		19.89%	46.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills			2.42%		1.58%
Cincinnati Bengals			27.61%		16.07%
Miami Dolphins	4.53%	14.33%		8.66%
New York Jets			4.96%		2.61%
San Diego Chargers	2.76%	9.52%		4.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys		4.53%	12.25%	19.22%
New York Giants	1.57%				0.80%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.69%				3.00%
San Francisco 49ers	30.15%				12.51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		1.07%	2.88%	4.33%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Miami Dolphins	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills			0.67%		0.04%		0.21%		0.67%	0.16%
Cincinnati Bengals			7.37%		0.55%		2.24%		9.19%	2.22%
Dallas Cowboys	0.88%	7.93%		5.15%		1.73%		3.25%
Miami Dolphins			5.12%		0.35%		1.35%		5.52%	1.13%
New York Giants	0.05%	0.57%		0.27%		0.11%		0.16%
New York Jets			1.23%		0.08%		0.30%		1.26%	0.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.29%	2.59%		1.44%		0.38%		1.00%
San Diego Chargers			2.67%		0.19%		0.89%		3.63%	0.68%
San Francisco 49ers	0.95%	9.54%		6.13%		1.82%		3.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.08%	1.48%		1.06%		0.33%		0.81%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 22.39% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

69.96%

Win Prob

64.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

70.68%

Win Prob

61.07%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

42.61%

Win Prob

50.93%

Cincinnati Bengals 21.57% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

64.85%

Win Prob

67.40%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

63.21%

Win Prob

65.83%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.61%

Win Prob

49.07%

Dallas Cowboys 18.94% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.41%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

53.39%

Win Prob

38.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

41.87%

Win Prob

51.83%

Miami Dolphins 13.47% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

52.07%

Win Prob

34.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.98%

Win Prob

47.38%

San Diego Chargers 8.06% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

55.25%

Win Prob

37.20%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

45.04%

Win Prob

47.89%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.14%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

71.94%

Win Prob

38.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

45.44%

Win Prob

53.62%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.76% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.59%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

52.29%

Win Prob

25.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

39.36%

Win Prob

40.00%

New York Jets 3.20% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.97%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.60%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

65.52%

Win Prob

36.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

39.38%

Win Prob

40.91%

Buffalo Bills 1.75% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.03%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.23%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

60.50%

Win Prob

34.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

38.29%

Win Prob

43.23%

New York Giants 1.16% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.86%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

66.24%

Win Prob

25.74%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

49.14%

Win Prob

50.89%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1981-09-06	New Orleans Saints	W 27-0	1529.87	1450.39	72.01%	27.52%	+15.94	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1545.81	1471.19	47.97%	51.56%	+21.45	2-0
1981-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-17	1567.26	1470.89	73.91%	25.63%	+11.78	3-0
1981-09-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-28	1579.04	1478.23	51.74%	47.79%	-19.08	3-1
1981-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-16	1559.96	1607.75	31.31%	68.23%	-6.04	3-2
1981-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 35-37	1553.92	1550.34	62.51%	37.02%	-9.83	3-3
1981-10-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 41-20	1544.09	1433.96	75.39%	24.15%	+12.34	4-3
1981-10-25	New York Giants	L 24-27	1556.43	1487.03	70.84%	28.70%	-13.64	4-4
1981-11-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 41-10	1542.79	1403.38	57.24%	42.30%	+26.21	5-4
1981-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1569.00	1559.60	38.78%	60.75%	-7.47	5-5
1981-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-34	1561.53	1517.87	67.71%	31.82%	-28.16	5-6
1981-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-30	1533.37	1525.88	63.04%	36.50%	+4.06	6-6
1981-11-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-27	1537.43	1459.64	48.43%	51.10%	+11.37	7-6
1981-12-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-24	1548.80	1507.61	43.20%	56.33%	-4.81	7-7
1981-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-21	1543.99	1477.77	46.77%	52.77%	-11.63	7-8
1981-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-30	1532.36	1603.08	52.12%	47.41%	-8.20	7-9
1981-09-06	@ New England Patriots	W 29-28	1480.71	1533.22	30.73%	68.81%	+7.64	1-0
1981-09-13	Buffalo Bills	L 3-35	1488.35	1535.18	55.53%	44.00%	-34.92	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-28	1453.43	1502.01	31.21%	68.32%	-14.75	1-2
1981-09-27	Miami Dolphins	L 28-31	1438.68	1559.86	44.88%	54.66%	-8.65	1-3
1981-10-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-23	1430.03	1544.47	23.70%	75.84%	-6.47	1-4
1981-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-41	1423.56	1481.06	54.01%	45.52%	-28.17	1-5
1981-10-18	San Diego Chargers	L 14-43	1395.39	1569.53	37.51%	62.02%	-22.49	1-6
1981-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-42	1372.90	1482.31	24.22%	75.31%	-10.11	1-7
1981-11-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-27	1362.79	1553.67	16.67%	82.87%	-7.66	1-8
1981-11-08	New York Jets	L 14-41	1355.13	1487.67	43.27%	56.27%	-25.02	1-9
1981-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-38	1330.11	1630.00	9.65%	89.89%	-5.39	1-10
1981-11-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-35	1324.72	1428.32	47.39%	52.14%	-17.48	1-11
1981-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 0-25	1307.24	1538.43	13.69%	85.85%	-7.64	1-12
1981-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-37	1299.60	1609.42	21.56%	77.97%	-11.78	1-13
1981-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1287.82	1464.91	17.80%	81.74%	-9.73	1-14
1981-12-20	New England Patriots	W 23-21	1278.09	1414.56	42.71%	56.82%	+8.94	2-14
1981-09-06	New York Jets	W 31-0	1515.38	1472.52	67.61%	31.92%	+19.80	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-3	1535.18	1488.35	44.00%	55.53%	+34.92	2-0
1981-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-20	1570.10	1581.13	60.53%	39.00%	-16.48	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1553.62	1482.13	47.52%	52.01%	-9.15	2-2
1981-10-04	Baltimore Colts	W 23-17	1544.47	1430.03	75.84%	23.70%	+6.47	3-2
1981-10-12	Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1550.94	1567.05	59.83%	39.70%	+13.97	4-2
1981-10-18	@ New York Jets	L 14-33	1564.91	1462.75	51.93%	47.60%	-25.17	4-3
1981-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 9-7	1539.74	1558.12	59.52%	40.01%	+6.30	5-3
1981-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 22-13	1546.04	1492.41	68.94%	30.59%	+10.23	6-3
1981-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-27	1556.27	1595.66	32.36%	67.18%	-13.00	6-4
1981-11-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-24	1543.27	1396.60	58.25%	41.28%	-31.72	6-5
1981-11-22	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1511.55	1463.79	68.22%	31.31%	+6.04	7-5
1981-11-29	Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1517.59	1464.92	68.83%	30.71%	+9.05	8-5
1981-12-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-27	1526.64	1578.30	30.83%	68.70%	+7.64	9-5
1981-12-13	@ New England Patriots	W 19-10	1534.28	1430.36	52.19%	47.35%	+15.80	10-5
1981-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-16	1550.08	1574.62	34.26%	65.28%	-12.07	10-6
1981-09-06	Green Bay Packers	L 9-16	1505.39	1450.89	69.05%	30.48%	-20.30	0-1
1981-09-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-28	1485.09	1455.55	41.57%	57.97%	-15.35	0-2
1981-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-17	1469.74	1466.63	62.45%	37.08%	+13.70	1-2
1981-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-24	1483.44	1511.83	58.13%	41.41%	-26.64	1-3
1981-10-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1456.80	1488.28	33.36%	66.17%	-6.44	1-4
1981-10-11	Washington Redskins	L 7-24	1450.36	1401.28	68.39%	31.15%	-31.33	1-5
1981-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-48	1419.03	1487.43	28.82%	70.72%	-17.88	1-6
1981-10-25	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1401.15	1592.02	35.28%	64.25%	+12.37	2-6
1981-11-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1413.52	1492.98	27.53%	72.01%	-9.70	2-7
1981-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1403.82	1556.87	19.91%	79.62%	+15.32	3-7
1981-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1419.14	1417.11	37.78%	61.76%	-8.41	3-8
1981-11-22	Detroit Lions	L 7-23	1410.73	1504.31	48.83%	50.70%	-21.73	3-9
1981-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-10	1389.00	1607.79	14.55%	84.98%	-1.62	3-10
1981-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-9	1387.38	1492.49	47.18%	52.36%	+5.82	4-10
1981-12-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-6	1393.20	1505.55	23.91%	75.62%	+34.65	5-10
1981-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 35-24	1427.85	1565.63	42.53%	57.01%	+21.02	6-10
1981-09-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1478.63	1467.80	63.48%	36.05%	+9.83	1-0
1981-09-13	@ New York Jets	W 31-30	1488.46	1452.72	42.44%	57.10%	+6.35	2-0
1981-09-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1494.81	1465.54	65.89%	33.65%	-12.68	2-1
1981-09-27	Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1482.13	1553.62	52.01%	47.52%	+9.16	3-1
1981-10-04	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-17	1491.29	1512.27	34.72%	64.82%	-10.23	3-2
1981-10-11	@ Baltimore Colts	W 41-19	1481.06	1423.56	45.52%	54.01%	+28.16	4-2
1981-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-7	1509.22	1551.12	56.23%	43.30%	+25.04	5-2
1981-10-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-17	1534.26	1382.66	58.94%	40.60%	-20.71	5-3
1981-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 34-21	1513.55	1495.23	64.47%	35.07%	+14.08	6-3
1981-11-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 40-17	1527.63	1585.20	30.11%	69.42%	+37.00	7-3
1981-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-10	1564.63	1523.00	67.46%	32.08%	+13.37	8-3
1981-11-22	Denver Broncos	W 38-21	1578.00	1585.78	60.97%	38.56%	+17.70	9-3
1981-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-21	1595.70	1462.52	56.36%	43.18%	+21.49	10-3
1981-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-21	1617.19	1569.75	68.18%	31.35%	-32.15	10-4
1981-12-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1585.04	1579.99	38.19%	61.35%	+18.04	11-4
1981-12-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-28	1603.08	1532.36	47.41%	52.12%	+8.20	12-4
1981-09-07	San Diego Chargers	L 14-44	1516.89	1530.25	60.21%	39.32%	-36.66	0-1
1981-09-13	Houston Oilers	L 3-9	1480.23	1538.30	53.93%	45.60%	-14.69	0-2
1981-09-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1465.54	1494.81	33.65%	65.89%	+12.69	1-2
1981-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-17	1478.23	1579.04	47.79%	51.74%	+19.08	2-2
1981-10-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-27	1497.31	1538.47	32.13%	67.40%	-11.87	2-3
1981-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1485.44	1542.90	30.12%	69.41%	-8.23	2-4
1981-10-18	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1477.21	1387.76	73.14%	26.39%	+5.10	3-4
1981-10-25	Baltimore Colts	W 42-28	1482.31	1372.90	75.31%	24.22%	+10.10	4-4
1981-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-22	1492.41	1546.04	30.59%	68.94%	-10.22	4-5
1981-11-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1482.19	1556.80	28.09%	71.45%	-5.42	4-6
1981-11-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 15-12	1476.77	1567.08	26.30%	73.24%	+14.09	5-6
1981-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-32	1490.86	1546.03	54.35%	45.19%	-28.34	5-7
1981-11-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-41	1462.52	1595.70	43.18%	56.36%	-21.49	5-8
1981-12-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-17	1441.03	1448.27	36.53%	63.00%	-8.13	5-9
1981-12-12	New York Jets	L 13-14	1432.90	1533.85	47.77%	51.76%	-5.32	5-10
1981-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-42	1427.58	1427.08	37.57%	61.96%	-19.17	5-11
1981-09-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 26-10	1546.55	1495.48	44.60%	54.93%	+24.43	1-0
1981-09-13	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-17	1570.98	1451.76	76.33%	23.20%	+9.33	2-0
1981-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 35-21	1580.31	1514.39	46.72%	52.81%	+21.97	3-0
1981-09-27	New York Giants	W 18-10	1602.28	1464.30	78.20%	21.33%	+6.73	4-0
1981-10-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-20	1609.01	1442.52	60.99%	38.55%	-11.75	4-1
1981-10-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-45	1597.26	1491.47	52.46%	47.08%	-32.47	4-2
1981-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 29-17	1564.79	1560.17	62.65%	36.88%	+14.23	5-2
1981-10-25	Miami Dolphins	W 28-27	1579.02	1557.53	64.88%	34.65%	+3.86	6-2
1981-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1582.88	1616.33	33.11%	66.43%	+12.78	7-2
1981-11-09	Buffalo Bills	W 27-14	1595.66	1556.27	67.18%	32.36%	+13.00	8-2
1981-11-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1608.66	1493.97	53.73%	45.81%	-10.35	8-3
1981-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1598.31	1474.40	76.81%	22.72%	+9.48	9-3
1981-11-26	Chicago Bears	W 10-9	1607.79	1389.00	84.98%	14.55%	+1.63	10-3
1981-12-06	@ Baltimore Colts	W 37-13	1609.42	1299.60	77.97%	21.56%	+11.77	11-3
1981-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-10	1621.19	1588.20	66.37%	33.17%	+12.26	12-3
1981-12-19	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1633.45	1499.30	56.49%	43.04%	-10.88	12-4
1981-09-06	Oakland Raiders	W 9-7	1503.77	1548.59	55.82%	43.72%	+6.88	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1510.65	1457.96	44.84%	54.70%	-8.64	1-1
1981-09-20	Baltimore Colts	W 28-10	1502.01	1453.43	68.32%	31.21%	+14.75	2-1
1981-09-27	San Diego Chargers	W 42-24	1516.76	1594.55	51.11%	48.43%	+22.86	3-1
1981-10-04	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-0	1539.62	1558.94	34.94%	64.60%	+29.60	4-1
1981-10-11	Detroit Lions	W 27-21	1569.22	1495.11	71.39%	28.15%	+7.68	5-1
1981-10-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-28	1576.90	1522.28	45.11%	54.42%	-18.78	5-2
1981-10-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-9	1558.12	1539.74	40.01%	59.52%	-6.30	5-3
1981-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-17	1551.82	1506.26	67.95%	31.58%	+4.98	6-3
1981-11-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-20	1556.80	1482.19	71.45%	28.09%	+5.42	7-3
1981-11-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1562.22	1486.43	48.14%	51.39%	+23.56	8-3
1981-11-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-38	1585.78	1578.00	38.56%	60.97%	-17.70	8-4
1981-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-34	1568.08	1560.62	38.52%	61.02%	-17.68	8-5
1981-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1550.40	1547.81	62.38%	37.15%	+7.17	9-5
1981-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-13	1557.57	1435.14	76.66%	22.88%	+8.06	10-5
1981-12-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-35	1565.63	1427.85	57.01%	42.53%	-21.01	10-6
1981-09-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1498.56	1465.31	66.40%	33.14%	+9.77	1-0
1981-09-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-28	1508.33	1566.91	29.99%	69.55%	-7.48	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-26	1500.85	1454.41	43.95%	55.59%	-6.91	1-2
1981-09-27	Oakland Raiders	W 16-0	1493.94	1581.08	49.76%	49.77%	+22.14	2-2
1981-10-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-28	1516.08	1466.27	44.42%	55.11%	-20.97	2-3
1981-10-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1495.11	1569.22	28.15%	71.39%	-7.68	2-4
1981-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 48-17	1487.43	1419.03	70.72%	28.82%	+17.87	3-4
1981-10-25	Green Bay Packers	W 31-27	1505.30	1401.21	74.75%	24.79%	+5.53	4-4
1981-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-20	1510.83	1538.56	33.84%	65.69%	-9.97	4-5
1981-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 31-33	1500.86	1455.63	43.78%	55.76%	-6.89	4-6
1981-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-24	1493.97	1608.66	45.81%	53.73%	+10.34	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-7	1504.31	1410.73	50.70%	48.83%	+21.73	6-6
1981-11-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-10	1526.04	1567.66	56.27%	43.26%	+19.85	7-6
1981-12-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-31	1545.89	1433.66	53.38%	46.16%	-22.20	7-7
1981-12-12	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-7	1523.69	1486.67	66.88%	32.66%	+22.42	8-7
1981-12-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1546.11	1506.42	67.21%	32.32%	-12.94	8-8
1981-09-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-9	1450.89	1505.39	30.48%	69.05%	+20.30	1-0
1981-09-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-31	1471.19	1545.81	51.56%	47.97%	-21.45	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-35	1449.74	1499.85	31.02%	68.51%	-11.97	1-2
1981-09-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-30	1437.77	1461.33	58.80%	40.73%	-26.95	1-3
1981-10-04	@ New York Giants	W 27-14	1410.82	1457.57	31.44%	68.10%	+27.28	2-3
1981-10-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-21	1438.10	1487.25	55.20%	44.33%	-20.35	2-4
1981-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-13	1417.75	1523.94	47.02%	52.51%	-16.54	2-5
1981-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-31	1401.21	1505.30	24.79%	74.75%	-5.53	2-6
1981-11-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-24	1395.68	1417.67	59.02%	40.52%	+14.26	3-6
1981-11-08	New York Giants	W 26-24	1409.94	1467.73	53.97%	45.56%	+7.17	4-6
1981-11-15	Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1417.11	1419.14	61.76%	37.78%	+8.41	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-37	1425.52	1462.86	32.62%	66.92%	-21.18	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-23	1404.34	1521.81	23.38%	76.15%	+29.32	6-7
1981-12-06	Detroit Lions	W 31-17	1433.66	1545.89	46.16%	53.38%	+22.20	7-7
1981-12-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-7	1455.86	1368.74	49.77%	49.76%	+29.29	8-7
1981-12-20	@ New York Jets	L 3-28	1485.15	1539.17	30.54%	68.99%	-17.02	8-8
1981-09-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-20	1519.58	1531.80	35.87%	63.66%	+18.72	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 9-3	1538.30	1480.23	45.60%	53.93%	+14.69	2-0
1981-09-20	Miami Dolphins	L 10-16	1552.99	1542.59	63.42%	36.11%	-17.27	2-1
1981-09-27	@ New York Jets	L 17-33	1535.72	1427.98	52.73%	46.80%	-23.45	2-2
1981-10-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1512.27	1491.29	64.82%	34.72%	+10.23	3-2
1981-10-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-17	1522.50	1433.42	73.10%	26.44%	+12.50	4-2
1981-10-18	@ New England Patriots	L 10-38	1535.00	1491.88	43.48%	56.06%	-25.60	4-3
1981-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-26	1509.40	1526.08	35.28%	64.25%	-14.17	4-4
1981-11-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-34	1495.23	1513.55	35.07%	64.47%	-14.08	4-5
1981-11-08	Oakland Raiders	W 17-16	1481.15	1503.92	58.91%	40.62%	+4.52	5-5
1981-11-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-23	1485.67	1541.54	30.32%	69.22%	-12.18	5-6
1981-11-22	New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1473.49	1394.37	71.97%	27.57%	-13.85	5-7
1981-11-29	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-31	1459.64	1537.43	51.10%	48.43%	-11.37	5-8
1981-12-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-13	1448.27	1441.03	63.00%	36.53%	+8.14	6-8
1981-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-28	1456.41	1601.90	20.62%	78.92%	-10.78	6-9
1981-12-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-20	1445.63	1561.95	45.57%	53.96%	+6.00	7-9
1981-09-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-33	1496.02	1527.73	33.33%	66.20%	+14.71	1-0
1981-09-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-10	1510.73	1477.71	66.37%	33.16%	+11.09	2-0
1981-09-20	San Diego Chargers	L 31-42	1521.82	1574.38	54.72%	44.82%	-20.18	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-14	1501.64	1457.93	43.56%	55.97%	+15.24	3-1
1981-10-04	@ New England Patriots	L 17-33	1516.88	1482.95	42.18%	57.35%	-18.78	3-2
1981-10-11	Oakland Raiders	W 27-0	1498.10	1529.33	57.73%	41.80%	+24.18	4-2
1981-10-18	Denver Broncos	W 28-14	1522.28	1576.90	54.42%	45.11%	+18.78	5-2
1981-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-17	1541.06	1511.12	41.62%	57.91%	+21.35	6-2
1981-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-22	1562.41	1579.65	35.21%	64.33%	-5.54	6-3
1981-11-08	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1556.87	1403.82	79.62%	19.91%	-15.33	6-4
1981-11-15	Houston Oilers	W 23-10	1541.54	1485.67	69.22%	30.32%	+12.18	7-4
1981-11-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 40-13	1553.72	1442.82	75.47%	24.07%	+13.94	8-4
1981-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-27	1567.66	1526.04	43.26%	56.27%	-19.85	8-5
1981-12-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1547.81	1550.40	37.15%	62.38%	-7.17	8-6
1981-12-13	Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1540.64	1553.43	60.29%	39.24%	-21.19	8-7
1981-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 10-6	1519.45	1464.25	45.19%	54.34%	+12.08	9-7
1981-09-06	Houston Oilers	L 20-27	1531.80	1519.58	63.66%	35.87%	-18.72	0-1
1981-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-23	1513.08	1434.45	48.55%	50.98%	-13.23	0-2
1981-09-20	Green Bay Packers	W 35-23	1499.85	1449.74	68.51%	31.02%	+11.98	1-2
1981-09-28	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-7	1511.83	1483.44	41.41%	58.13%	+26.64	2-2
1981-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-16	1538.47	1497.31	67.40%	32.13%	+11.87	3-2
1981-10-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 37-35	1550.34	1553.92	37.02%	62.51%	+9.83	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-29	1560.17	1564.79	36.88%	62.65%	-14.23	4-3
1981-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1545.94	1540.49	38.24%	61.29%	-7.38	4-4
1981-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1538.56	1510.83	65.69%	33.84%	+9.98	5-4
1981-11-08	New Orleans Saints	L 13-21	1548.54	1377.17	81.25%	18.29%	-25.54	5-5
1981-11-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1523.00	1564.63	32.08%	67.46%	-13.37	5-6
1981-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 31-33	1509.63	1552.98	56.02%	43.51%	-8.81	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-24	1500.82	1574.37	28.21%	71.32%	-15.40	5-8
1981-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1485.42	1469.71	39.65%	59.89%	-7.65	5-9
1981-12-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-16	1477.77	1543.99	52.77%	46.77%	+11.64	6-9
1981-12-20	Washington Redskins	L 7-30	1489.41	1474.64	64.00%	35.53%	-34.12	6-10
1981-09-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-7	1501.27	1475.19	41.08%	58.45%	+23.42	1-0
1981-09-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-10	1524.69	1513.02	63.59%	35.94%	+17.90	2-0
1981-09-20	@ Houston Oilers	W 16-10	1542.59	1552.99	36.11%	63.42%	+17.27	3-0
1981-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-28	1559.86	1438.68	54.66%	44.88%	+8.65	4-0
1981-10-04	New York Jets	T 28-28	1568.51	1451.44	76.11%	23.42%	-1.46	4-0
1981-10-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-31	1567.05	1550.94	39.70%	59.83%	-13.98	4-1
1981-10-18	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1553.07	1432.61	76.46%	23.08%	+4.46	5-1
1981-10-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-28	1557.53	1579.02	34.65%	64.88%	-3.86	5-2
1981-11-01	Baltimore Colts	W 27-10	1553.67	1362.79	82.87%	16.67%	+7.66	6-2
1981-11-08	@ New England Patriots	W 30-27	1561.33	1495.44	46.72%	52.81%	+10.17	7-2
1981-11-15	Oakland Raiders	L 17-33	1571.50	1499.40	71.16%	28.38%	-31.63	7-3
1981-11-22	@ New York Jets	L 15-16	1539.87	1534.17	38.28%	61.26%	-4.26	7-4
1981-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1535.61	1606.38	52.11%	47.42%	+9.14	8-4
1981-12-06	New England Patriots	W 24-14	1544.75	1439.04	74.92%	24.62%	+8.68	9-4
1981-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-7	1553.43	1540.64	39.24%	60.29%	+21.19	10-4
1981-12-19	Buffalo Bills	W 16-6	1574.62	1550.08	65.28%	34.26%	+12.06	11-4
1981-09-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-21	1498.38	1464.43	42.19%	57.35%	-13.28	0-1
1981-09-14	Oakland Raiders	L 10-36	1485.10	1541.71	54.14%	45.39%	-30.69	0-2
1981-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 26-24	1454.41	1500.85	55.59%	43.95%	+6.92	1-2
1981-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-13	1461.33	1437.77	40.73%	58.80%	+26.95	2-2
1981-10-04	Chicago Bears	W 24-21	1488.28	1456.80	66.17%	33.36%	+6.43	3-2
1981-10-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-31	1494.71	1580.97	26.75%	72.78%	+11.44	4-2
1981-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-23	1506.15	1628.80	44.67%	54.86%	+21.13	5-2
1981-10-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-30	1527.28	1421.62	52.44%	47.10%	-21.02	5-3
1981-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-19	1506.26	1551.82	31.58%	67.95%	-4.98	5-4
1981-11-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-10	1501.28	1502.68	61.84%	37.69%	+16.26	6-4
1981-11-15	New Orleans Saints	W 20-10	1517.54	1402.71	75.88%	23.66%	+8.34	7-4
1981-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 30-31	1525.88	1533.37	36.50%	63.04%	-4.07	7-5
1981-11-29	Green Bay Packers	L 23-35	1521.81	1404.34	76.15%	23.38%	-29.32	7-6
1981-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-10	1492.49	1387.38	52.36%	47.18%	-5.82	7-7
1981-12-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-45	1486.67	1523.69	32.66%	66.88%	-22.42	7-8
1981-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-10	1464.25	1519.45	54.34%	45.19%	-12.09	7-9
1981-09-06	Baltimore Colts	L 28-29	1533.22	1480.71	68.81%	30.73%	-7.65	0-1
1981-09-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-13	1525.57	1569.96	31.73%	67.80%	-11.18	0-2
1981-09-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-35	1514.39	1580.31	52.81%	46.72%	-21.97	0-3
1981-09-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-27	1492.42	1513.50	34.71%	64.83%	-9.47	0-4
1981-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-17	1482.95	1516.88	57.35%	42.18%	+18.78	1-4
1981-10-11	@ New York Jets	L 24-28	1501.73	1452.90	44.29%	55.25%	-9.85	1-5
1981-10-18	Houston Oilers	W 38-10	1491.88	1535.00	56.06%	43.48%	+25.60	2-5
1981-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 22-24	1517.48	1428.16	50.09%	49.45%	-7.88	2-6
1981-11-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-27	1509.60	1489.77	40.22%	59.32%	-14.16	2-7
1981-11-08	Miami Dolphins	L 27-30	1495.44	1561.33	52.81%	46.72%	-10.17	2-8
1981-11-15	New York Jets	L 6-17	1485.27	1512.69	58.26%	41.27%	-21.48	2-9
1981-11-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-20	1463.79	1511.55	31.31%	68.22%	-6.04	2-10
1981-11-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-27	1457.75	1445.80	63.63%	35.91%	-18.71	2-11
1981-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1439.04	1544.75	24.62%	74.92%	-8.68	2-12
1981-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 10-19	1430.36	1534.28	47.35%	52.19%	-15.80	2-13
1981-12-20	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-23	1414.56	1278.09	56.82%	42.71%	-8.93	2-14
1981-09-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-27	1450.39	1529.87	27.52%	72.01%	-15.94	0-1
1981-09-13	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-17	1434.45	1513.08	50.98%	48.55%	+13.23	1-1
1981-09-20	@ New York Giants	L 7-20	1447.68	1449.33	37.28%	62.25%	-14.97	1-2
1981-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-21	1432.71	1459.11	34.02%	65.52%	-10.02	1-3
1981-10-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-20	1422.69	1522.97	47.87%	51.66%	-19.92	1-4
1981-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-31	1402.77	1613.79	32.68%	66.86%	-15.01	1-5
1981-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1387.76	1477.21	26.39%	73.14%	-5.10	1-6
1981-10-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-7	1382.66	1534.26	40.60%	58.94%	+20.72	2-6
1981-11-01	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-41	1403.38	1542.79	42.30%	57.24%	-26.21	2-7
1981-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-13	1377.17	1548.54	18.29%	81.25%	+25.54	3-7
1981-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-20	1402.71	1517.54	23.66%	75.88%	-8.34	3-8
1981-11-22	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-24	1394.37	1473.49	27.57%	71.97%	+13.85	4-8
1981-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-31	1408.22	1484.05	51.39%	48.15%	-23.56	4-9
1981-12-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-30	1384.66	1464.51	27.48%	72.05%	-15.92	4-10
1981-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 7-35	1368.74	1455.86	49.76%	49.77%	-29.28	4-11
1981-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-21	1339.46	1612.68	25.34%	74.20%	-5.65	4-12
1981-09-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-24	1445.08	1550.33	47.16%	52.38%	-19.63	0-1
1981-09-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-7	1425.45	1471.05	31.58%	67.96%	+23.88	1-1
1981-09-20	New Orleans Saints	W 20-7	1449.33	1447.68	62.25%	37.28%	+14.97	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-18	1464.30	1602.28	21.33%	78.20%	-6.73	2-2
1981-10-04	Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1457.57	1410.82	68.10%	31.44%	-27.29	2-3
1981-10-11	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-14	1430.28	1454.26	58.74%	40.79%	+20.31	3-3
1981-10-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 32-0	1450.59	1420.92	41.58%	57.95%	+36.44	4-3
1981-10-25	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1487.03	1556.43	28.70%	70.84%	+13.63	5-3
1981-11-01	New York Jets	L 7-26	1500.66	1454.73	68.00%	31.54%	-32.93	5-4
1981-11-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-26	1467.73	1409.94	45.56%	53.97%	-7.17	5-5
1981-11-15	Washington Redskins	L 27-30	1460.56	1462.51	61.77%	37.77%	-11.89	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1448.67	1635.39	17.00%	82.53%	+29.00	6-6
1981-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-17	1477.67	1561.79	27.00%	72.54%	-7.96	6-7
1981-12-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-7	1469.71	1485.42	59.89%	39.65%	+7.65	7-7
1981-12-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1477.36	1480.43	37.09%	62.44%	+21.94	8-7
1981-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1499.30	1633.45	43.04%	56.49%	+10.88	9-7
1981-09-06	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-31	1472.52	1515.38	31.92%	67.61%	-19.80	0-1
1981-09-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-31	1452.72	1488.46	57.10%	42.44%	-6.35	0-2
1981-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-38	1446.37	1495.12	31.19%	68.34%	-18.39	0-3
1981-09-27	Houston Oilers	W 33-17	1427.98	1535.72	46.80%	52.73%	+23.46	1-3
1981-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	T 28-28	1451.44	1568.51	23.42%	76.11%	+1.46	1-3
1981-10-11	New England Patriots	W 28-24	1452.90	1501.73	55.25%	44.29%	+9.85	2-3
1981-10-18	Buffalo Bills	W 33-14	1462.75	1564.91	47.60%	51.93%	+25.18	3-3
1981-10-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-19	1487.93	1384.48	74.68%	24.86%	-33.20	3-4
1981-11-01	@ New York Giants	W 26-7	1454.73	1500.66	31.54%	68.00%	+32.94	4-4
1981-11-08	@ Baltimore Colts	W 41-14	1487.67	1355.13	56.27%	43.27%	+25.02	5-4
1981-11-15	@ New England Patriots	W 17-6	1512.69	1485.27	41.27%	58.26%	+21.48	6-4
1981-11-22	Miami Dolphins	W 16-15	1534.17	1539.87	61.26%	38.28%	+4.26	7-4
1981-11-29	Baltimore Colts	W 25-0	1538.43	1307.24	85.85%	13.69%	+7.64	8-4
1981-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-27	1546.07	1422.93	54.93%	44.60%	-12.22	8-5
1981-12-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-13	1533.85	1432.90	51.76%	47.77%	+5.32	9-5
1981-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 28-3	1539.17	1485.15	68.99%	30.54%	+17.01	10-5
1981-09-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-9	1548.59	1503.77	43.72%	55.82%	-6.88	0-1
1981-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 36-10	1541.71	1485.10	45.39%	54.14%	+30.69	1-1
1981-09-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-10	1572.40	1466.60	74.93%	24.61%	+8.68	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-16	1581.08	1493.94	49.77%	49.76%	-22.14	2-2
1981-10-04	Denver Broncos	L 0-17	1558.94	1539.62	64.60%	34.94%	-29.61	2-3
1981-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-27	1529.33	1498.10	41.80%	57.73%	-24.17	2-4
1981-10-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 18-16	1505.16	1507.60	61.70%	37.83%	+5.96	3-4
1981-10-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-28	1511.12	1541.06	57.91%	41.62%	-21.35	3-5
1981-11-01	New England Patriots	W 27-17	1489.77	1509.60	59.32%	40.22%	+14.15	4-5
1981-11-08	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-17	1503.92	1481.15	40.62%	58.91%	-4.52	4-6
1981-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	W 33-17	1499.40	1571.50	28.38%	71.16%	+31.63	5-6
1981-11-22	San Diego Chargers	L 21-55	1531.03	1519.42	63.58%	35.95%	-41.20	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 32-31	1489.83	1428.88	46.01%	53.52%	+5.95	6-7
1981-12-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-27	1495.78	1589.77	48.77%	50.76%	+9.77	7-7
1981-12-13	Chicago Bears	L 6-23	1505.55	1393.20	75.62%	23.91%	-34.65	7-8
1981-12-21	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-23	1470.90	1576.66	24.61%	74.92%	-9.89	7-9
1981-09-06	@ New York Giants	W 24-10	1550.33	1445.08	52.38%	47.16%	+19.63	1-0
1981-09-13	New England Patriots	W 13-3	1569.96	1525.57	67.80%	31.73%	+11.17	2-0
1981-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1581.13	1570.10	39.00%	60.53%	+16.48	3-0
1981-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 36-13	1597.61	1433.74	80.60%	18.94%	+10.14	4-0
1981-10-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 16-13	1607.75	1559.96	68.23%	31.31%	+6.04	5-0
1981-10-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-14	1613.79	1402.77	66.86%	32.68%	+15.01	6-0
1981-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-35	1628.80	1506.15	54.86%	44.67%	-21.13	6-1
1981-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1607.67	1501.64	74.95%	24.58%	+8.66	7-1
1981-11-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1616.33	1582.88	66.43%	33.11%	-12.78	7-2
1981-11-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 52-10	1603.55	1423.05	62.88%	36.66%	+26.45	8-2
1981-11-15	Baltimore Colts	W 38-13	1630.00	1330.11	89.89%	9.65%	+5.39	9-2
1981-11-22	New York Giants	L 10-20	1635.39	1448.67	82.53%	17.00%	-29.01	9-3
1981-11-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1606.38	1535.61	47.42%	52.11%	-9.14	9-4
1981-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-15	1597.24	1455.87	57.51%	42.02%	-9.04	9-5
1981-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-21	1588.20	1621.19	33.17%	66.37%	-12.25	9-6
1981-12-20	St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-0	1575.95	1458.48	76.15%	23.38%	+16.07	10-6
1981-09-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 33-37	1527.73	1496.02	66.20%	33.33%	-14.71	0-1
1981-09-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-30	1513.02	1524.69	35.94%	63.59%	-17.90	0-2
1981-09-20	New York Jets	W 38-10	1495.12	1446.37	68.34%	31.19%	+18.38	1-2
1981-09-27	New England Patriots	W 27-21	1513.50	1492.42	64.83%	34.71%	+9.47	2-2
1981-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-6	1522.97	1422.69	51.66%	47.87%	+19.93	3-2
1981-10-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-7	1542.90	1485.44	69.41%	30.12%	+8.22	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-34	1551.12	1509.22	43.30%	56.23%	-25.04	4-3
1981-10-26	Houston Oilers	W 26-13	1526.08	1509.40	64.25%	35.28%	+14.17	5-3
1981-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1540.25	1547.86	61.00%	38.54%	-11.75	5-4
1981-11-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-24	1528.50	1403.41	55.21%	44.32%	-10.63	5-5
1981-11-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-20	1517.87	1561.53	31.82%	67.71%	+28.16	6-5
1981-11-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 32-10	1546.03	1490.86	45.19%	54.35%	+28.34	7-5
1981-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-0	1574.37	1500.82	71.32%	28.21%	+15.40	8-5
1981-12-07	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-30	1589.77	1495.78	50.76%	48.77%	-9.78	8-6
1981-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1579.99	1585.04	61.35%	38.19%	-18.04	8-7
1981-12-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-21	1561.95	1445.63	53.96%	45.57%	-6.00	8-8
1981-09-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 44-14	1530.25	1516.89	39.32%	60.21%	+36.66	1-0
1981-09-13	Detroit Lions	W 28-23	1566.91	1508.33	69.55%	29.99%	+7.47	2-0
1981-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 42-31	1574.38	1521.82	44.82%	54.72%	+20.17	3-0
1981-09-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-42	1594.55	1516.76	48.43%	51.11%	-22.85	3-1
1981-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-10	1571.70	1442.69	77.32%	22.21%	+9.27	4-1
1981-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-33	1580.97	1494.71	72.78%	26.75%	-11.44	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Baltimore Colts	W 43-14	1569.53	1395.39	62.02%	37.51%	+22.49	5-2
1981-10-25	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1592.02	1401.15	64.25%	35.28%	-12.37	5-3
1981-11-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-20	1579.65	1562.41	64.33%	35.21%	+5.55	6-3
1981-11-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-40	1585.20	1527.63	69.42%	30.11%	-37.00	6-4
1981-11-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-44	1548.20	1414.04	56.49%	43.04%	-28.78	6-5
1981-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 55-21	1519.42	1531.03	35.95%	63.58%	+41.20	7-5
1981-11-29	Denver Broncos	W 34-17	1560.62	1568.08	61.02%	38.52%	+17.68	8-5
1981-12-06	Buffalo Bills	L 27-28	1578.30	1526.64	68.70%	30.83%	-7.63	8-6
1981-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-23	1570.67	1512.42	45.63%	53.91%	+5.99	9-6
1981-12-21	Oakland Raiders	W 23-10	1576.66	1470.90	74.92%	24.61%	+9.89	10-6
1981-09-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-24	1465.31	1498.56	33.14%	66.40%	-9.76	0-1
1981-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 28-17	1455.55	1485.09	57.97%	41.57%	+15.34	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1470.89	1567.26	25.63%	73.91%	-11.78	1-2
1981-09-27	New Orleans Saints	W 21-14	1459.11	1432.71	65.52%	34.02%	+10.03	2-2
1981-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-17	1469.14	1423.61	43.82%	55.72%	+22.33	3-2
1981-10-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 45-14	1491.47	1597.26	47.08%	52.46%	+32.47	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-3	1523.94	1417.75	52.51%	47.02%	+16.55	5-2
1981-10-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1540.49	1545.94	61.29%	38.24%	+7.37	6-2
1981-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1547.86	1540.25	38.54%	61.00%	+11.74	7-2
1981-11-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1559.60	1569.00	60.75%	38.78%	+7.48	8-2
1981-11-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 12-15	1567.08	1476.77	73.24%	26.30%	-14.10	8-3
1981-11-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 33-31	1552.98	1509.63	43.51%	56.02%	+8.81	9-3
1981-11-29	New York Giants	W 17-10	1561.79	1477.67	72.54%	27.00%	+7.96	10-3
1981-12-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-3	1569.75	1617.19	31.35%	68.18%	+32.15	11-3
1981-12-13	Houston Oilers	W 28-6	1601.90	1456.41	78.92%	20.62%	+10.78	12-3
1981-12-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-17	1612.68	1339.46	74.20%	25.34%	+5.65	13-3
1981-09-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-27	1467.80	1478.63	36.05%	63.48%	-9.84	0-1
1981-09-13	Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1457.96	1510.65	54.70%	44.84%	+8.64	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-20	1466.60	1572.40	24.61%	74.93%	-8.67	1-2
1981-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-20	1457.93	1501.64	55.97%	43.56%	-15.24	1-3
1981-10-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1442.69	1571.70	22.21%	77.32%	-9.27	1-4
1981-10-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-35	1433.42	1522.50	26.44%	73.10%	-12.50	1-5
1981-10-18	New York Giants	L 0-32	1420.92	1450.59	57.95%	41.58%	-36.44	1-6
1981-10-25	@ New York Jets	W 19-3	1384.48	1487.93	24.86%	74.68%	+33.19	2-6
1981-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-34	1417.67	1395.68	40.52%	59.02%	-14.26	2-7
1981-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-21	1403.41	1528.50	44.32%	55.21%	+10.63	3-7
1981-11-16	San Diego Chargers	W 44-23	1414.04	1548.20	43.04%	56.49%	+28.78	4-7
1981-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-40	1442.82	1553.72	24.07%	75.47%	-13.94	4-8
1981-11-29	Oakland Raiders	L 31-32	1428.88	1489.83	53.52%	46.01%	-5.95	4-9
1981-12-06	New York Jets	W 27-23	1422.93	1546.07	44.60%	54.93%	+12.21	5-9
1981-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1435.14	1557.57	22.88%	76.66%	-8.06	5-10
1981-12-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-21	1427.08	1427.58	61.96%	37.57%	+19.17	6-10
1981-09-06	Miami Dolphins	L 7-20	1475.19	1501.27	58.45%	41.08%	-23.43	0-1
1981-09-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-30	1451.76	1570.98	23.20%	76.33%	-9.32	0-2
1981-09-20	Washington Redskins	W 40-30	1442.44	1447.17	61.39%	38.15%	+13.43	1-2
1981-09-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1455.87	1452.93	37.90%	61.63%	-13.35	1-3
1981-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1442.52	1609.01	38.55%	60.99%	+11.74	2-3
1981-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 14-34	1454.26	1430.28	40.79%	58.74%	-20.30	2-4
1981-10-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-41	1433.96	1544.09	24.15%	75.39%	-12.34	2-5
1981-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-17	1421.62	1527.28	47.10%	52.44%	+21.02	3-5
1981-11-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-42	1442.64	1436.03	38.40%	61.13%	-19.59	3-6
1981-11-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-52	1423.05	1603.55	36.66%	62.88%	-26.45	3-7
1981-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 24-0	1396.60	1543.27	41.28%	58.25%	+31.72	4-7
1981-11-22	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-24	1428.32	1324.72	52.14%	47.39%	+17.48	5-7
1981-11-29	@ New England Patriots	W 27-20	1445.80	1457.75	35.91%	63.63%	+18.71	6-7
1981-12-06	New Orleans Saints	W 30-3	1464.51	1384.66	72.05%	27.48%	+15.92	7-7
1981-12-13	New York Giants	L 10-20	1480.43	1477.36	62.44%	37.09%	-21.95	7-8
1981-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-38	1458.48	1575.95	23.38%	76.15%	-16.07	7-9
1981-09-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-13	1464.43	1498.38	57.35%	42.19%	+13.28	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-19	1477.71	1510.73	33.16%	66.37%	-11.08	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-28	1466.63	1469.74	37.08%	62.45%	-13.70	1-2
1981-09-27	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1452.93	1455.87	61.63%	37.90%	+13.34	2-2
1981-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 28-10	1466.27	1516.08	55.11%	44.42%	+20.98	3-2
1981-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1487.25	1438.10	44.33%	55.20%	+20.35	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-18	1507.60	1505.16	37.83%	61.70%	-5.96	4-3
1981-10-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-20	1501.64	1607.67	24.58%	74.95%	-8.66	4-4
1981-11-01	Chicago Bears	W 20-10	1492.98	1413.52	72.01%	27.53%	+9.70	5-4
1981-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-25	1502.68	1501.28	37.69%	61.84%	-16.25	5-5
1981-11-15	Denver Broncos	L 7-24	1486.43	1562.22	51.39%	48.14%	-23.57	5-6
1981-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 37-3	1462.86	1425.52	66.92%	32.62%	+21.19	6-6
1981-11-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-14	1484.05	1408.22	48.15%	51.39%	+23.56	7-6
1981-12-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1507.61	1548.80	56.33%	43.20%	+4.81	8-6
1981-12-13	San Diego Chargers	L 23-24	1512.42	1570.67	53.91%	45.63%	-6.00	8-7
1981-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1506.42	1546.11	32.32%	67.21%	+12.94	9-7
1981-09-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-26	1495.48	1546.55	54.93%	44.60%	-24.43	0-1
1981-09-13	New York Giants	L 7-17	1471.05	1425.45	67.96%	31.58%	-23.88	0-2
1981-09-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 30-40	1447.17	1442.44	38.15%	61.39%	-13.43	0-3
1981-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-36	1433.74	1597.61	18.94%	80.60%	-10.13	0-4
1981-10-04	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-30	1423.61	1469.14	55.72%	43.82%	-22.33	0-5
1981-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-7	1401.28	1450.36	31.15%	68.39%	+31.33	1-5
1981-10-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1432.61	1553.07	23.08%	76.46%	-4.45	1-6
1981-10-25	New England Patriots	W 24-22	1428.16	1517.48	49.45%	50.09%	+7.87	2-6
1981-11-01	St. Louis Cardinals	W 42-21	1436.03	1442.64	61.13%	38.40%	+19.60	3-6
1981-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 33-31	1455.63	1500.86	55.76%	43.78%	+6.88	4-6
1981-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 30-27	1462.51	1460.56	37.77%	61.77%	+11.89	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1474.40	1598.31	22.72%	76.81%	-9.48	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-21	1464.92	1517.59	30.71%	68.83%	-9.05	5-8
1981-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 15-13	1455.87	1597.24	42.02%	57.51%	+9.04	6-8
1981-12-13	Baltimore Colts	W 38-14	1464.91	1287.82	81.74%	17.80%	+9.73	7-8
1981-12-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-7	1474.64	1489.41	35.53%	64.00%	+34.11	8-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1981-12-27	@ New York Jets	W 31-27	1538.01	1556.18	35.30%	64.70%	+14.33	1-0
1982-01-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-28	1552.34	1611.28	30.14%	69.86%	-8.83	1-1
1982-01-03	Buffalo Bills	W 28-21	1611.28	1552.34	69.86%	30.14%	+8.82	1-0
1982-01-10	San Diego Chargers	W 27-7	1620.10	1598.50	65.15%	34.85%	+17.26	2-0
1982-01-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-26	1637.36	1633.72	50.52%	49.48%	-12.51	2-1
1982-01-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-0	1622.57	1519.36	74.94%	25.06%	+17.10	1-0
1982-01-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-28	1639.67	1629.39	39.12%	60.88%	-4.33	1-1
1982-01-02	San Diego Chargers	L 38-41	1586.68	1586.55	62.29%	37.71%	-11.94	0-1
1981-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-21	1510.18	1592.02	27.44%	72.56%	+19.68	1-0
1982-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-38	1529.86	1618.33	26.69%	73.31%	-11.06	1-1
1981-12-27	Buffalo Bills	L 27-31	1556.18	1538.01	64.70%	35.30%	-14.32	0-1
1981-12-27	New York Giants	L 21-27	1592.02	1510.18	72.56%	27.44%	-19.68	0-1
1982-01-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 41-38	1586.55	1586.68	37.71%	62.29%	+11.95	1-0
1982-01-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-27	1598.50	1620.10	34.85%	65.15%	-17.26	1-1
1982-01-03	New York Giants	W 38-24	1618.33	1529.86	73.31%	26.69%	+11.06	1-0
1982-01-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-27	1629.39	1639.67	60.88%	39.12%	+4.33	2-0
1982-01-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-21	1633.72	1637.36	49.48%	50.52%	+12.50	3-0
1982-01-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-38	1519.36	1622.57	25.06%	74.94%	-17.10	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1981-11-22	17.00%	New York Giants	1448.67	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1635.39	10
2	1981-11-08	18.29%	New Orleans Saints	1377.17	21	@ Los Angeles Rams	1548.54	13
3	1981-11-08	19.91%	Chicago Bears	1403.82	16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1556.87	13
4	1981-11-29	23.38%	Green Bay Packers	1404.34	35	@ Minnesota Vikings	1521.81	23
5	1981-12-13	23.91%	Chicago Bears	1393.20	23	@ Oakland Raiders	1505.55	6
6	1981-10-25	24.86%	Seattle Seahawks	1384.48	19	@ New York Jets	1487.93	3
7	1981-11-15	26.30%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1476.77	15	@ San Francisco 49ers	1567.08	12
8	1981-10-11	26.75%	Minnesota Vikings	1494.71	33	@ San Diego Chargers	1580.97	31
9	1981-12-27 *	27.44%	New York Giants	1510.18	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1592.02	21
10	1981-11-22	27.57%	New Orleans Saints	1394.37	27	@ Houston Oilers	1473.49	24
11	1981-11-15	28.38%	Oakland Raiders	1499.40	33	@ Miami Dolphins	1571.50	17
12	1981-10-25	28.70%	New York Giants	1487.03	27	@ Atlanta Falcons	1556.43	24
13	1981-11-08	30.11%	Cincinnati Bengals	1527.63	40	@ San Diego Chargers	1585.20	17
14	1981-09-06	30.48%	Green Bay Packers	1450.89	16	@ Chicago Bears	1505.39	9
15	1981-09-06	30.73%	Baltimore Colts	1480.71	29	@ New England Patriots	1533.22	28
16	1981-12-06	30.83%	Buffalo Bills	1526.64	28	@ San Diego Chargers	1578.30	27
17	1981-10-11	31.15%	Washington Redskins	1401.28	24	@ Chicago Bears	1450.36	7
18	1981-12-06	31.35%	San Francisco 49ers	1569.75	21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1617.19	3
19	1981-10-04	31.44%	Green Bay Packers	1410.82	27	@ New York Giants	1457.57	14
20	1981-11-01	31.54%	New York Jets	1454.73	26	@ New York Giants	1500.66	7
21	1981-09-13	31.58%	New York Giants	1425.45	17	@ Washington Redskins	1471.05	7
22	1981-11-15	31.82%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1517.87	34	@ Atlanta Falcons	1561.53	20
23	1981-12-20	32.32%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1506.42	20	@ Detroit Lions	1546.11	17
24	1981-11-01	33.11%	Dallas Cowboys	1582.88	17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1616.33	14
25	1981-09-06	33.33%	Kansas City Chiefs	1496.02	37	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1527.73	33

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1981-11-22	41.20	San Diego Chargers	55	1519.42	35.95%	@ Oakland Raiders	21	1531.03	63.58%
2	1981-11-08	37.00	Cincinnati Bengals	40	1527.63	30.11%	@ San Diego Chargers	17	1585.20	69.42%
3	1981-09-07	36.66	San Diego Chargers	44	1530.25	39.32%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1516.89	60.21%
4	1981-10-18	36.44	New York Giants	32	1450.59	41.58%	@ Seattle Seahawks	0	1420.92	57.95%
5	1981-09-13	34.92	Buffalo Bills	35	1535.18	44.00%	@ Baltimore Colts	3	1488.35	55.53%
6	1981-12-13	34.65	Chicago Bears	23	1393.20	23.91%	@ Oakland Raiders	6	1505.55	75.62%
7	1981-12-20	34.12	Washington Redskins	30	1474.64	35.53%	@ Los Angeles Rams	7	1489.41	64.00%
8	1981-10-25	33.20	Seattle Seahawks	19	1384.48	24.86%	@ New York Jets	3	1487.93	74.68%
9	1981-11-01	32.94	New York Jets	26	1454.73	31.54%	@ New York Giants	7	1500.66	68.00%
10	1981-10-11	32.47	@ San Francisco 49ers	45	1491.47	47.08%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1597.26	52.46%
11	1981-12-06	32.15	San Francisco 49ers	21	1569.75	31.35%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1617.19	68.18%
12	1981-11-15	31.72	@ St. Louis Cardinals	24	1396.60	41.28%	Buffalo Bills	0	1543.27	58.25%
13	1981-11-15	31.63	Oakland Raiders	33	1499.40	28.38%	@ Miami Dolphins	17	1571.50	71.16%
14	1981-10-11	31.33	Washington Redskins	24	1401.28	31.15%	@ Chicago Bears	7	1450.36	68.39%
15	1981-09-14	30.69	Oakland Raiders	36	1541.71	45.39%	@ Minnesota Vikings	10	1485.10	54.14%
16	1981-10-04	29.61	Denver Broncos	17	1539.62	34.94%	@ Oakland Raiders	0	1558.94	64.60%
17	1981-11-29	29.32	Green Bay Packers	35	1404.34	23.38%	@ Minnesota Vikings	23	1521.81	76.15%
18	1981-12-13	29.29	Green Bay Packers	35	1455.86	49.77%	@ New Orleans Saints	7	1368.74	49.76%
19	1981-11-22	29.01	New York Giants	20	1448.67	17.00%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1635.39	82.53%
20	1981-11-16	28.78	@ Seattle Seahawks	44	1414.04	43.04%	San Diego Chargers	23	1548.20	56.49%
21	1981-11-22	28.34	Pittsburgh Steelers	32	1546.03	45.19%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1490.86	54.35%
22	1981-10-11	28.17	Cincinnati Bengals	41	1481.06	45.52%	@ Baltimore Colts	19	1423.56	54.01%
23	1981-11-15	28.16	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1517.87	31.82%	@ Atlanta Falcons	20	1561.53	67.71%
24	1981-10-04	27.29	Green Bay Packers	27	1410.82	31.44%	@ New York Giants	14	1457.57	68.10%
25	1981-09-27	26.95	Minnesota Vikings	30	1461.33	40.73%	@ Green Bay Packers	13	1437.77	58.80%