1980 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Oakland Raiders

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1976

Runner-Up

Philadelphia Eagles

1st SB App.

Last Appearance: 1960

Biggest Overachiever

Atlanta Falcons

3.39 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.61 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New Orleans Saints

4.53 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.53 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	11	5	.688	—	295	251	+44	9.01	+1.99
2	Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	357	310	+47	8.57	+2.43
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	2	352	313	+39	10.22	-1.22
4	Cincinnati Bengals	6	10	.375	5	244	312	-68	6.29	-0.29

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	11	5	.688	—	320	260	+60	8.59	+2.41
2	New England Patriots	10	6	.625	1	441	325	+116	9.72	+0.28
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	3	266	305	-39	8.25	-0.25
4	Baltimore Colts	7	9	.438	4	355	387	-32	7.10	-0.10
5	New York Jets	4	12	.250	7	302	395	-93	6.34	-2.34

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	11	5	.688	—	364	306	+58	8.56	+2.44
2	San Diego Chargers Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	418	327	+91	10.03	+0.97
3	Kansas City Chiefs	8	8	.500	3	319	336	-17	7.07	+0.93
4	Denver Broncos	8	8	.500	3	310	323	-13	8.23	-0.23
5	Seattle Seahawks	4	12	.250	7	291	408	-117	7.13	-3.13

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	9	7	0	.562	—	317	308	+9	7.66	+1.34
2	Detroit Lions	9	7	0	.562	—	334	272	+62	8.75	+0.25
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	0	.438	2	304	264	+40	7.98	-0.98
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	10	1	.344	3.5	271	341	-70	7.40	-1.90
5	Green Bay Packers	5	10	1	.344	3.5	231	371	-140	6.85	-1.35

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	12	4	.750	—	384	222	+162	10.25	+1.75
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	12	4	.750	—	454	311	+143	10.03	+1.97
3	Washington Redskins	6	10	.375	6	261	293	-32	7.15	-1.15
4	St. Louis Cardinals	5	11	.312	7	299	350	-51	6.96	-1.96
5	New York Giants	4	12	.250	8	249	425	-176	5.69	-1.69

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	12	4	.750	—	405	272	+133	8.61	+3.39
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	424	289	+135	9.38	+1.62
3	San Francisco 49ers	6	10	.375	6	320	415	-95	6.61	-0.61
4	New Orleans Saints	1	15	.062	11	291	487	-196	5.53	-4.53

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Oakland Raiders 27

Houston Oilers 7

Dec 28

Divisional Round

San Diego Chargers 20

Buffalo Bills 14

Jan 3

Oakland Raiders 14

Cleveland Browns (1st) 12

Jan 4

Conference Championship

Oakland Raiders 34

San Diego Chargers 27

Jan 11

NFC

Wild Card Round

Dallas Cowboys 34

Los Angeles Rams 13

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles 31

Minnesota Vikings 16

Jan 3

Dallas Cowboys 30

Atlanta Falcons 27

Jan 4

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 20

Dallas Cowboys 7

Jan 11

Super Bowl

Oakland Raiders 27

Philadelphia Eagles 10

Jan 25

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1631	12	10.03	+1.97	91.23%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1630	12	10.25	+1.75	88.70%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1609	11	9.38	+1.62	87.13%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1598	11	10.03	+0.97	78.40%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1598	12	8.61	+3.39	98.29%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1595	11	8.56	+2.44	93.78%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1590	10	9.72	+0.28	66.42%	2	7	8	10	11	13	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1587	11	9.01	+1.99	90.42%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1580	9	10.22	-1.22	34.49%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1565	11	8.57	+2.43	93.84%	2	5	7	9	10	12	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1560	11	8.59	+2.41	93.91%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1513	7	7.98	-0.98	41.55%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1512	8	8.23	-0.23	56.88%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1508	9	7.66	+1.34	83.09%	0	4	6	8	9	11	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1505	8	8.25	-0.25	56.46%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1496	9	8.75	+0.25	65.54%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1489	8	7.07	+0.93	77.91%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1486	6	7.15	-1.15	37.89%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1443	7	7.10	-0.10	59.13%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1440	6	6.29	-0.29	55.75%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1417	5	6.96	-1.96	23.67%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1408	4	6.34	-2.34	16.81%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1404	6	6.61	-0.61	49.36%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1399	4	7.13	-3.13	8.88%	0	4	6	7	8	10	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1394	5.5	7.40	-1.90	17.03%	0	4	6	7	9	11	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1377	5.5	6.85	-1.35	25.46%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1350	4	5.69	-1.69	27.90%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1315	1	5.53	-4.53	1.03%	0	3	4	5	7	9	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.2 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.7 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	3-0 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.45%	1.12%	1.56%	2.46%	0.45%	0.45%	—	6.47%
7–13	1.12%	3.12%	5.36%	3.35%	2.46%	0.67%	0.89%	16.96%
14–20	1.56%	5.36%	11.16%	5.58%	3.35%	1.79%	0.22%	29.02%
21–27	2.46%	3.35%	5.58%	8.48%	2.68%	2.01%	0.67%	25.22%
28–34	0.45%	2.46%	3.35%	2.68%	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	12.50%
35–41	0.45%	0.67%	1.79%	2.01%	0.89%	1.34%	—	7.14%
42+	—	0.89%	0.22%	0.67%	0.89%	—	—	2.68%
Total	6.47%	16.96%	29.02%	25.22%	12.50%	7.14%	2.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.49	20.49	+0.00
SD	10.32	10.32	14.45
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	61	61	+54
Min	0	0	-54

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	50.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.31	17.00	+8.31
SD	11.05	6.14	10.25
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	43	28	+27
Min	7	6	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	24.19	-2.00
SD	8.15	10.36	10.39
CV	0.37	0.43	—
Max	35	47	+14
Min	10	9	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	16.25	+3.75
SD	8.97	8.93	11.45
CV	0.45	0.55	—
Max	35	30	+18
Min	2	0	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	16.50	+2.50
SD	13.98	10.81	20.19
CV	0.74	0.66	—
Max	61	38	+54
Min	3	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	12.50%	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%	12.50%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	19.50	-4.25
SD	8.98	9.59	10.86
CV	0.59	0.49	—
Max	34	33	+14
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	19.38	+2.94
SD	7.29	8.24	10.38
CV	0.33	0.43	—
Max	34	34	+24
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.38	19.44	+8.94
SD	13.64	12.62	18.80
CV	0.48	0.65	—
Max	59	41	+45
Min	10	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.38	20.19	-0.81
SD	10.02	6.55	11.80
CV	0.52	0.32	—
Max	41	31	+21
Min	3	9	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.88	17.00	+3.88
SD	9.82	10.81	16.15
CV	0.47	0.64	—
Max	41	43	+22
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.44	23.19	-8.75
SD	7.25	15.14	17.92
CV	0.50	0.65	—
Max	25	61	+13
Min	3	3	-54

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.44	15.69	+2.75
SD	7.91	10.69	9.89
CV	0.43	0.68	—
Max	38	34	+20
Min	6	0	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	56.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	21.00	-1.06
SD	9.54	5.51	10.41
CV	0.48	0.26	—
Max	38	31	+17
Min	6	13	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.50	18.06	+8.44
SD	14.17	10.13	15.62
CV	0.53	0.56	—
Max	51	41	+30
Min	7	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	56.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.62	19.06	-2.44
SD	7.92	6.52	12.14
CV	0.48	0.34	—
Max	35	34	+21
Min	0	13	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	19.25	+0.56
SD	12.43	9.90	17.55
CV	0.63	0.51	—
Max	39	42	+34
Min	0	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.56	20.31	+7.25
SD	10.55	10.90	14.51
CV	0.38	0.54	—
Max	47	38	+34
Min	13	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	31.25%	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.19	30.44	-12.25
SD	8.95	8.29	9.33
CV	0.49	0.27	—
Max	35	45	+1
Min	3	20	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.56	26.56	-11.00
SD	12.32	8.82	13.33
CV	0.79	0.33	—
Max	41	44	+6
Min	0	12	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.88	24.69	-5.81
SD	6.09	9.21	8.49
CV	0.32	0.37	—
Max	31	38	+7
Min	10	7	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.75	19.12	+3.62
SD	11.14	8.28	10.56
CV	0.49	0.43	—
Max	45	34	+19
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.00	13.88	+10.12
SD	8.65	9.47	13.18
CV	0.36	0.68	—
Max	42	35	+35
Min	10	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	19.56	+2.44
SD	8.97	10.19	11.71
CV	0.41	0.52	—
Max	38	45	+35
Min	0	3	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	—	12.50%	6.25%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.12	20.44	+5.69
SD	7.35	11.43	15.06
CV	0.28	0.56	—
Max	44	42	+37
Min	13	7	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	25.94	-5.94
SD	8.53	13.73	14.53
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	38	59	+12
Min	10	0	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.19	25.50	-7.31
SD	7.73	12.32	15.52
CV	0.43	0.48	—
Max	31	51	+19
Min	3	0	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.69	21.88	-3.19
SD	11.07	9.54	14.42
CV	0.59	0.44	—
Max	40	41	+33
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.94	21.31	-4.38
SD	8.13	8.05	9.36
CV	0.48	0.38	—
Max	30	38	+17
Min	0	9	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	25.00%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.31	18.31	-2.00
SD	10.98	9.78	15.46
CV	0.67	0.53	—
Max	40	39	+24
Min	0	0	-25

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Atlanta Falcons	12	8.61	+3.39
2	Oakland Raiders	11	8.56	+2.44
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	8.57	+2.43
4	Buffalo Bills	11	8.59	+2.41
5	Houston Oilers	11	9.01	+1.99

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New Orleans Saints	1	5.53	-4.53
2	Seattle Seahawks	4	7.13	-3.13
3	New York Jets	4	6.34	-2.34
4	St. Louis Cardinals	5	6.96	-1.96
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.5	7.40	-1.90

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atlanta Falcons	9	Oct 19 – Dec 14	1 in 166
2	Oakland Raiders	6	Oct 12 – Nov 17	1 in 57
3	Buffalo Bills	5	Sep 7 – Oct 5	1 in 41
4	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Oct 5 – Oct 26	1 in 36
5	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Oct 5 – Nov 23	1 in 27

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	14	Sep 7 – Dec 7	1 in 657
2	Seattle Seahawks	9	Oct 26 – Dec 21	1 in 160
3	San Francisco 49ers	8	Sep 28 – Nov 16	1 in 63
4	New York Giants	8	Sep 14 – Nov 2	1 in 33
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 33

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	53.16%	28.06%	14.49%	4.29%
Houston Oilers	25.41%	32.90%	28.83%	12.86%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.59%	29.74%	35.00%	16.67%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.84%	9.30%	21.68%	66.18%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New England Patriots	45.67%	26.35%	15.63%	8.38%	3.97%
Buffalo Bills	24.03%	26.25%	22.78%	16.55%	10.39%
Miami Dolphins	18.96%	24.23%	25.18%	19.51%	12.12%
Baltimore Colts	7.42%	14.53%	20.60%	27.65%	29.80%
New York Jets	3.92%	8.64%	15.81%	27.91%	43.72%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	51.81%	23.47%	14.29%	7.15%	3.28%
Oakland Raiders	20.17%	26.44%	22.83%	18.42%	12.14%
Denver Broncos	15.59%	23.51%	24.07%	20.48%	16.35%
Seattle Seahawks	6.45%	14.19%	19.52%	26.82%	33.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.98%	12.39%	19.29%	27.13%	35.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	35.71%	24.63%	17.50%	13.35%	8.81%
Chicago Bears	22.42%	23.32%	20.82%	18.61%	14.83%
Minnesota Vikings	18.11%	20.56%	21.09%	21.52%	18.72%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14.24%	17.11%	21.64%	23.02%	23.99%
Green Bay Packers	9.52%	14.38%	18.95%	23.50%	33.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	47.12%	33.93%	12.68%	4.95%	1.32%
Dallas Cowboys	42.08%	35.80%	14.91%	5.57%	1.64%
Washington Redskins	4.99%	13.91%	29.62%	30.14%	21.34%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.39%	11.45%	28.03%	31.51%	24.62%
New York Giants	1.42%	4.91%	14.76%	27.83%	51.08%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	54.46%	29.83%	12.14%	3.57%
Atlanta Falcons	34.40%	39.31%	19.19%	7.10%
San Francisco 49ers	8.33%	20.84%	40.01%	30.82%
New Orleans Saints	2.81%	10.02%	28.66%	58.51%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	23.59%	16.31%	14.18%	10.80%	8.83%	6.59%	5.27%	4.80%	3.49%	2.29%	1.61%	1.18%	0.77%	0.29%
San Diego Chargers	20.37%	17.10%	13.08%	10.29%	8.37%	7.25%	5.82%	5.02%	4.06%	2.87%	2.14%	1.74%	1.24%	0.65%
New England Patriots	14.71%	14.78%	12.93%	10.90%	9.82%	7.97%	6.55%	5.51%	4.99%	4.00%	3.02%	2.19%	1.46%	1.17%
Houston Oilers	9.11%	9.45%	10.10%	9.70%	9.71%	9.48%	8.35%	8.28%	7.21%	5.70%	4.78%	3.62%	3.16%	1.35%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.19%	6.94%	7.29%	8.59%	9.31%	9.62%	9.49%	8.86%	9.41%	7.40%	5.62%	5.33%	3.83%	2.12%
Buffalo Bills	6.31%	7.75%	8.50%	8.72%	8.90%	8.87%	8.57%	8.48%	7.87%	6.38%	6.54%	5.17%	4.28%	3.66%
Oakland Raiders	5.87%	7.14%	8.17%	8.53%	9.37%	8.86%	8.47%	8.21%	7.85%	7.40%	6.76%	5.46%	4.72%	3.19%
Miami Dolphins	4.64%	6.13%	6.80%	7.48%	7.89%	9.30%	8.60%	8.54%	8.84%	7.91%	7.72%	6.39%	5.27%	4.49%
Denver Broncos	4.08%	5.82%	6.82%	7.91%	8.07%	7.88%	8.91%	8.82%	7.98%	8.27%	7.76%	6.82%	6.25%	4.61%
Seattle Seahawks	1.39%	2.31%	3.22%	4.09%	4.76%	5.83%	7.04%	7.45%	7.81%	9.68%	10.81%	11.27%	11.98%	12.36%
Baltimore Colts	1.43%	2.30%	3.00%	4.34%	4.81%	5.99%	6.78%	7.46%	8.08%	9.13%	10.35%	10.93%	11.83%	13.57%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.18%	2.29%	2.98%	3.76%	4.52%	5.34%	6.84%	7.11%	8.07%	10.04%	10.71%	11.05%	12.98%	13.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.67%	0.81%	1.35%	2.56%	2.79%	3.37%	4.61%	5.75%	7.17%	9.67%	11.55%	16.12%	16.71%	16.87%
New York Jets	0.46%	0.87%	1.58%	2.33%	2.85%	3.65%	4.70%	5.71%	7.17%	9.26%	10.63%	12.73%	15.52%	22.54%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Philadelphia Eagles	28.50%	17.37%	13.07%	11.35%	9.00%	5.84%	4.78%	3.11%	2.56%	1.69%	1.29%	0.76%	0.45%	0.23%
Dallas Cowboys	24.44%	16.09%	14.11%	12.04%	9.45%	6.77%	5.38%	3.72%	2.56%	2.20%	1.40%	1.01%	0.53%	0.30%
Los Angeles Rams	14.70%	16.74%	14.13%	11.39%	9.64%	9.14%	6.29%	5.14%	4.38%	3.06%	2.15%	1.73%	1.12%	0.39%
Atlanta Falcons	7.80%	10.03%	11.13%	10.56%	11.02%	11.13%	9.13%	7.13%	6.73%	5.26%	3.83%	3.25%	2.10%	0.90%
Detroit Lions	8.37%	12.18%	11.41%	10.61%	10.18%	8.74%	7.31%	7.00%	6.00%	5.58%	4.51%	3.36%	2.99%	1.76%
Chicago Bears	3.95%	7.13%	8.10%	8.80%	9.23%	9.41%	8.32%	8.54%	7.66%	7.57%	7.03%	5.63%	5.14%	3.49%
Minnesota Vikings	3.49%	5.19%	6.88%	7.35%	8.24%	8.18%	8.89%	8.96%	8.24%	8.50%	7.94%	6.80%	6.44%	4.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.57%	4.46%	5.40%	6.01%	7.26%	7.34%	8.70%	8.94%	8.74%	9.00%	9.00%	8.59%	7.56%	6.43%
Washington Redskins	1.76%	2.60%	3.88%	5.31%	5.77%	7.01%	8.94%	9.84%	10.06%	9.82%	10.10%	9.02%	8.27%	7.62%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.82%	2.41%	3.35%	4.34%	5.08%	6.28%	8.74%	9.35%	9.23%	9.98%	10.80%	10.02%	8.92%	9.68%
Green Bay Packers	1.18%	2.72%	3.58%	5.13%	5.43%	6.53%	7.51%	8.18%	9.02%	9.07%	9.49%	10.71%	11.03%	10.42%
San Francisco 49ers	0.96%	1.82%	3.19%	4.12%	5.01%	6.83%	7.13%	9.19%	10.45%	10.26%	10.60%	11.14%	10.68%	8.62%
New Orleans Saints	0.20%	0.57%	0.80%	1.31%	2.35%	3.49%	4.41%	5.37%	7.74%	8.94%	10.93%	15.19%	18.66%	20.04%
New York Giants	0.26%	0.69%	0.97%	1.68%	2.34%	3.31%	4.47%	5.53%	6.63%	9.07%	10.93%	12.79%	16.11%	25.22%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Philadelphia Eagles	14.78%	12.01%	8.99%	8.23%	6.59%	6.39%	5.19%	6.17%	4.30%	4.97%	3.14%	2.82%	2.63%	2.75%	1.70%	1.59%	1.29%	1.42%	1.14%	0.80%	0.79%	0.58%	0.55%	0.48%	0.20%	0.27%	0.16%	0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.21%	10.49%	9.85%	7.78%	7.99%	6.18%	6.14%	4.65%	4.66%	4.04%	3.65%	2.72%	2.72%	2.17%	2.63%	1.96%	1.54%	1.23%	1.07%	0.98%	0.88%	0.63%	0.62%	0.43%	0.33%	0.23%	0.13%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	11.87%	10.71%	8.14%	8.46%	7.09%	6.77%	5.50%	5.92%	4.46%	4.97%	3.37%	3.88%	2.68%	3.12%	1.92%	1.90%	1.52%	1.51%	1.12%	1.35%	0.84%	0.86%	0.58%	0.62%	0.34%	0.19%	0.21%	0.10%
San Diego Chargers	12.58%	9.45%	9.49%	7.77%	7.75%	5.88%	5.93%	4.39%	4.57%	3.76%	3.73%	3.44%	3.09%	2.28%	2.76%	2.35%	1.93%	1.62%	1.28%	1.27%	1.18%	0.77%	0.71%	0.47%	0.82%	0.44%	0.18%	0.11%
New England Patriots	8.43%	8.13%	8.16%	7.17%	7.00%	6.11%	5.99%	5.12%	5.43%	4.35%	4.11%	3.53%	3.37%	2.75%	3.05%	2.63%	2.97%	1.84%	1.66%	1.76%	1.58%	1.00%	1.23%	0.82%	0.59%	0.50%	0.47%	0.25%
Los Angeles Rams	6.44%	7.49%	6.88%	8.07%	6.06%	7.25%	5.12%	6.34%	4.66%	5.50%	4.19%	4.39%	3.68%	3.49%	2.50%	2.76%	2.33%	2.70%	1.79%	1.70%	1.28%	1.24%	1.18%	0.99%	0.91%	0.53%	0.36%	0.17%
Houston Oilers	4.87%	5.04%	5.56%	5.15%	5.56%	5.00%	5.48%	4.75%	4.97%	4.36%	5.23%	4.35%	4.59%	3.87%	4.48%	3.44%	3.43%	2.92%	3.03%	2.59%	2.49%	1.62%	1.92%	1.66%	1.51%	1.10%	0.74%	0.29%
Detroit Lions	3.29%	4.55%	4.81%	6.09%	4.76%	5.95%	4.54%	5.71%	4.64%	5.24%	4.15%	4.71%	3.89%	4.38%	3.57%	3.61%	3.09%	3.26%	2.72%	3.03%	2.40%	2.63%	2.02%	1.69%	1.64%	1.64%	1.09%	0.90%
Atlanta Falcons	2.85%	4.39%	3.81%	4.95%	4.85%	5.49%	4.64%	5.74%	5.07%	5.28%	4.71%	5.35%	4.56%	5.22%	3.31%	4.23%	3.52%	3.87%	2.88%	2.84%	2.41%	2.36%	1.81%	1.97%	1.19%	1.35%	0.78%	0.57%
Buffalo Bills	3.35%	3.63%	4.54%	3.84%	4.75%	4.10%	5.12%	4.25%	4.56%	4.43%	5.29%	4.30%	4.27%	3.83%	4.67%	4.01%	3.89%	3.34%	3.45%	3.30%	3.25%	2.85%	2.50%	2.19%	2.12%	1.71%	1.62%	0.84%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.98%	3.72%	3.62%	3.68%	4.62%	4.14%	5.14%	4.03%	4.54%	4.81%	5.21%	4.93%	4.76%	4.02%	5.06%	4.10%	4.41%	3.90%	3.58%	3.17%	3.23%	2.31%	2.73%	2.05%	1.95%	1.52%	1.10%	0.69%
Oakland Raiders	2.98%	3.71%	3.95%	3.77%	4.61%	4.13%	4.89%	4.04%	5.37%	4.04%	4.91%	4.69%	4.45%	3.64%	4.56%	3.99%	4.32%	3.63%	3.82%	3.05%	3.47%	2.53%	2.82%	2.45%	2.04%	1.67%	1.62%	0.85%
Miami Dolphins	2.25%	2.86%	3.33%	3.35%	3.57%	3.65%	4.40%	3.72%	4.42%	4.01%	4.66%	4.81%	4.63%	4.09%	5.03%	3.94%	4.12%	3.72%	4.50%	3.73%	4.09%	3.34%	2.89%	2.62%	2.70%	2.21%	2.08%	1.28%
Denver Broncos	2.26%	2.38%	3.39%	3.03%	3.83%	3.65%	4.76%	3.82%	4.39%	3.70%	4.35%	4.27%	4.51%	3.94%	4.95%	4.27%	4.61%	3.35%	4.24%	3.87%	3.65%	3.59%	3.41%	3.06%	3.06%	2.37%	1.82%	1.47%
Chicago Bears	1.42%	2.15%	3.01%	3.39%	2.97%	4.17%	3.45%	4.81%	4.41%	4.59%	3.95%	4.66%	4.50%	4.65%	3.59%	4.38%	4.03%	4.61%	3.79%	4.07%	3.55%	4.02%	3.25%	3.02%	2.71%	2.76%	2.29%	1.80%
Minnesota Vikings	1.07%	1.84%	1.94%	2.62%	2.88%	3.48%	3.08%	3.68%	3.79%	4.06%	3.72%	4.31%	4.37%	4.72%	4.05%	4.41%	3.95%	4.82%	3.78%	4.56%	4.10%	4.49%	3.64%	4.09%	3.37%	3.65%	2.61%	2.92%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.84%	1.26%	1.78%	2.20%	2.08%	2.85%	2.62%	3.26%	3.32%	3.41%	3.17%	3.95%	3.78%	4.67%	3.61%	4.69%	4.52%	4.98%	4.02%	4.92%	4.33%	5.02%	4.31%	4.83%	4.03%	4.34%	3.50%	3.71%
Washington Redskins	0.42%	0.88%	1.22%	1.39%	1.73%	1.76%	2.36%	2.56%	2.80%	2.95%	3.04%	3.45%	3.73%	4.95%	3.88%	4.95%	4.45%	5.46%	4.58%	5.18%	4.73%	5.77%	4.95%	4.76%	4.52%	5.02%	4.34%	4.17%
Seattle Seahawks	0.62%	0.88%	1.28%	1.20%	1.90%	1.87%	2.29%	1.83%	2.61%	2.86%	3.32%	3.18%	3.55%	3.26%	4.51%	4.04%	4.64%	3.77%	5.26%	4.46%	5.55%	5.31%	5.46%	5.20%	5.95%	4.98%	6.08%	4.14%
Baltimore Colts	0.50%	0.92%	1.27%	1.34%	1.58%	1.70%	2.28%	2.42%	2.72%	2.48%	3.58%	2.90%	3.67%	3.41%	4.48%	3.96%	4.55%	3.79%	5.33%	4.35%	5.55%	4.60%	5.59%	5.07%	6.06%	5.07%	5.90%	4.93%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.52%	0.83%	1.04%	1.14%	1.50%	1.79%	1.74%	2.02%	2.27%	2.90%	2.94%	2.95%	3.44%	4.66%	3.75%	4.86%	4.10%	5.12%	4.37%	5.40%	4.97%	5.88%	5.22%	5.34%	4.87%	5.65%	5.15%	5.58%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.47%	0.67%	1.17%	1.51%	1.71%	1.58%	2.24%	1.99%	2.41%	2.29%	3.50%	2.89%	3.66%	2.99%	4.11%	3.97%	4.55%	3.95%	5.63%	4.94%	5.55%	5.00%	5.83%	5.31%	5.66%	5.73%	6.14%	4.55%
Green Bay Packers	0.33%	0.58%	1.00%	1.30%	1.32%	1.87%	1.79%	2.66%	2.64%	2.86%	2.80%	3.17%	3.28%	3.70%	3.78%	3.98%	4.06%	4.68%	4.72%	4.83%	4.47%	5.33%	5.06%	5.87%	5.64%	6.44%	5.56%	6.28%
San Francisco 49ers	0.29%	0.50%	0.53%	0.96%	1.08%	1.65%	1.54%	2.16%	1.91%	2.68%	2.31%	3.36%	3.24%	4.23%	2.87%	4.52%	4.51%	5.45%	4.84%	5.13%	4.88%	5.85%	5.74%	6.36%	5.80%	6.37%	5.55%	5.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.19%	0.40%	0.56%	0.46%	0.81%	0.79%	1.26%	1.17%	1.70%	1.58%	2.01%	1.89%	2.71%	2.51%	3.47%	3.08%	3.67%	3.71%	5.33%	4.91%	5.71%	5.30%	7.71%	7.12%	7.77%	7.81%	8.29%	8.08%
New York Jets	0.12%	0.32%	0.33%	0.55%	0.86%	1.00%	1.17%	1.28%	1.61%	1.74%	2.20%	1.98%	2.60%	2.43%	3.38%	3.17%	3.81%	3.75%	5.36%	4.24%	5.94%	4.97%	6.46%	6.38%	8.47%	7.00%	9.59%	9.29%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.12%	0.24%	0.25%	0.36%	0.42%	0.75%	0.91%	1.05%	1.12%	1.35%	1.52%	1.77%	2.22%	2.24%	2.77%	2.80%	3.63%	3.30%	4.92%	4.76%	5.96%	5.91%	7.29%	6.98%	9.20%	11.38%	16.72%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.09%	0.11%	0.35%	0.19%	0.38%	0.59%	0.60%	0.72%	1.02%	1.41%	1.60%	1.87%	2.05%	2.09%	2.44%	3.39%	3.97%	3.41%	4.65%	4.37%	6.19%	5.90%	7.86%	8.77%	10.25%	11.26%	14.46%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	23.59%	15.98%	13.59%	12.21%	8.56%	26.07%
San Diego Chargers	20.37%	17.74%	13.70%	9.35%	8.13%	30.71%
New England Patriots	14.71%	15.72%	15.24%	8.92%	8.96%	36.45%
Houston Oilers	9.11%	8.21%	8.09%	12.23%	10.37%	51.99%
Buffalo Bills	6.31%	8.23%	9.49%	7.75%	8.58%	59.64%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.19%	6.21%	6.19%	9.79%	9.90%	61.72%
Oakland Raiders	5.87%	7.12%	7.18%	9.14%	9.49%	61.20%
Miami Dolphins	4.64%	6.50%	7.82%	6.36%	7.78%	66.90%
Denver Broncos	4.08%	5.59%	5.92%	8.30%	8.36%	67.75%
Baltimore Colts	1.43%	2.36%	3.63%	3.72%	4.84%	84.02%
Seattle Seahawks	1.39%	2.35%	2.71%	4.40%	4.82%	84.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.18%	2.16%	2.64%	3.92%	4.57%	85.53%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.67%	0.71%	1.46%	2.43%	2.86%	91.87%
New York Jets	0.46%	1.12%	2.34%	1.48%	2.78%	91.82%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	28.50%	12.92%	5.70%	20.73%	10.74%	21.41%
Dallas Cowboys	24.44%	11.80%	5.84%	21.80%	11.49%	24.63%
Los Angeles Rams	14.70%	19.34%	20.42%	6.77%	7.39%	31.38%
Detroit Lions	8.37%	14.10%	13.24%	7.12%	9.77%	47.40%
Atlanta Falcons	7.80%	11.43%	15.17%	7.75%	10.07%	47.78%
Chicago Bears	3.95%	8.35%	10.12%	5.60%	8.99%	62.99%
Minnesota Vikings	3.49%	6.37%	8.25%	5.19%	7.74%	68.96%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.57%	5.38%	6.29%	4.18%	6.87%	74.71%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.82%	1.61%	0.96%	5.67%	6.01%	83.93%
Washington Redskins	1.76%	1.72%	1.51%	6.70%	6.61%	81.70%
Green Bay Packers	1.18%	3.31%	5.03%	3.23%	5.29%	81.96%
San Francisco 49ers	0.96%	2.36%	5.01%	2.83%	4.51%	84.33%
New York Giants	0.26%	0.58%	0.58%	1.65%	2.49%	94.44%
New Orleans Saints	0.20%	0.73%	1.88%	0.78%	2.03%	94.38%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	69.10%	69.10%	44.45%	25.37%	14.55%
Dallas Cowboys	65.13%	65.13%	41.99%	24.08%	13.83%
Los Angeles Rams	62.68%	62.68%	35.55%	19.56%	10.43%
San Diego Chargers	61.89%	61.89%	35.35%	19.23%	9.76%
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.87%	64.87%	35.30%	18.32%	8.63%
New England Patriots	55.51%	55.51%	29.65%	15.80%	7.70%
Atlanta Falcons	44.59%	44.59%	23.73%	12.27%	6.58%
Houston Oilers	38.00%	38.00%	20.05%	10.56%	5.02%
Oakland Raiders	30.86%	30.86%	16.63%	8.84%	4.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	29.50%	29.50%	14.91%	7.42%	3.53%
Buffalo Bills	32.67%	32.67%	15.69%	7.73%	3.36%
Detroit Lions	42.65%	42.65%	15.74%	5.95%	2.25%
Chicago Bears	28.44%	28.44%	11.09%	4.12%	1.80%
Miami Dolphins	24.94%	24.94%	10.22%	4.01%	1.68%
Minnesota Vikings	23.38%	23.38%	8.94%	3.48%	1.63%
Denver Broncos	23.05%	23.05%	9.63%	3.77%	1.45%
Washington Redskins	13.31%	10.82%	4.68%	1.84%	0.75%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.31%	9.31%	3.52%	1.38%	0.47%
Baltimore Colts	10.21%	10.21%	3.23%	1.17%	0.41%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.29%	4.86%	1.68%	0.58%	0.25%
Seattle Seahawks	9.22%	9.09%	2.71%	0.76%	0.25%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17.07%	17.07%	4.15%	0.94%	0.24%
San Francisco 49ers	10.47%	10.47%	2.90%	0.78%	0.22%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.68%	8.13%	2.87%	0.74%	0.21%
Green Bay Packers	11.61%	11.61%	2.42%	0.60%	0.18%
New York Jets	5.24%	5.24%	1.43%	0.43%	0.13%
New Orleans Saints	3.43%	3.43%	0.79%	0.10%	0.03%
New York Giants	4.14%	2.50%	0.70%	0.17%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.06%	0.13%	0.27%	0.40%	0.34%	0.16%	0.17%	0.12%	0.02%	0.32%	0.34%	0.21%	0.25%
Buffalo Bills	0.29%		0.31%	0.93%	0.93%	1.00%	0.66%	0.54%	0.33%	0.17%	0.93%	1.04%	0.82%	0.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.10%	0.25%		0.05%	0.27%	0.21%	0.13%	0.14%	0.15%	0.11%	0.20%	0.14%	0.14%	0.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.71%	0.96%	0.24%		1.21%	0.93%	0.60%	1.08%	1.20%	0.29%	1.07%	0.67%	1.07%	0.88%
Denver Broncos	0.52%	0.67%	0.36%	0.84%		1.06%	0.13%	0.91%	0.76%	0.21%	0.53%	0.86%	0.33%	0.28%
Houston Oilers	0.85%	1.13%	0.29%	0.89%	1.47%		0.70%	1.25%	1.20%	0.48%	1.28%	0.60%	1.36%	1.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.20%	0.42%	0.08%	0.37%	0.20%	0.41%		0.31%	0.42%	0.14%	0.13%	0.34%	0.17%	0.14%
Miami Dolphins	0.28%	0.25%	0.23%	0.57%	0.69%	0.62%	0.46%		0.28%	0.05%	0.54%	0.91%	0.51%	0.59%
New England Patriots	0.27%	0.42%	0.48%	1.09%	1.22%	1.27%	0.68%	0.42%		0.10%	0.91%	1.19%	1.00%	0.79%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.03%	0.06%	0.18%	0.19%	0.10%	0.10%	0.04%	0.07%		0.11%	0.12%	0.15%	0.12%
Oakland Raiders	0.80%	0.95%	0.43%	1.28%	0.60%	1.59%	0.36%	1.02%	0.88%	0.45%		1.59%	0.41%	0.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.80%	1.27%	0.17%	0.61%	1.29%	0.52%	0.79%	1.16%	1.17%	0.52%	1.34%		1.11%	0.96%
San Diego Chargers	0.63%	1.09%	0.36%	1.32%	0.54%	1.68%	0.31%	0.92%	1.12%	0.34%	0.48%	0.96%		0.33%
Seattle Seahawks	0.27%	0.19%	0.13%	0.38%	0.19%	0.28%	0.08%	0.20%	0.34%	0.06%	0.10%	0.30%	0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.76%	2.09%	0.84%	0.70%	0.08%	0.56%	0.08%	0.39%	1.63%	0.21%	1.02%	0.78%	1.05%
Chicago Bears	0.53%		1.17%	0.24%	0.13%	0.32%	0.22%	0.16%	0.33%	0.92%	0.42%	0.60%	0.25%	0.73%
Dallas Cowboys	2.55%	2.56%		3.14%	1.86%	2.04%	2.51%	0.46%	0.45%	0.62%	1.44%	1.58%	2.46%	1.38%
Detroit Lions	0.45%	0.25%	1.25%		0.18%	0.44%	0.19%	0.22%	0.33%	1.50%	0.33%	0.71%	0.40%	0.69%
Green Bay Packers	0.17%	0.14%	0.39%	0.09%		0.06%	0.04%	0.05%	0.11%	0.30%	0.09%	0.27%	0.12%	0.26%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	0.70%	1.51%	0.77%	0.50%		0.49%	0.09%	0.39%	1.67%	0.20%	0.63%	0.60%	0.65%
Minnesota Vikings	0.42%	0.21%	1.04%	0.31%	0.21%	0.26%		0.12%	0.27%	0.93%	0.24%	0.56%	0.23%	0.47%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.02%	0.06%	0.06%	0.13%		0.03%		0.02%	0.08%	0.03%	0.07%	0.03%	0.05%
New York Giants	0.08%	0.10%	0.07%	0.10%	0.06%	0.06%	0.13%	0.01%		0.09%	0.09%	0.09%	0.12%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.37%	2.47%	0.74%	2.98%	1.69%	1.84%	2.26%	0.63%	0.41%		1.33%	1.57%	2.22%	1.47%
San Francisco 49ers	0.09%	0.19%	0.36%	0.18%	0.14%	0.04%	0.14%	0.01%	0.13%	0.32%		0.19%	0.18%	0.17%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.22%	0.38%	0.53%	0.31%	0.29%	0.29%	0.44%	0.12%	0.02%	0.37%	0.23%		0.32%	0.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.20%	0.14%	0.51%	0.12%	0.02%	0.13%	0.15%	0.09%	0.12%	0.52%	0.21%	0.36%		0.26%
Washington Redskins	0.49%	0.65%	0.52%	0.81%	0.52%	0.38%	0.50%	0.15%	0.09%	0.54%	0.38%	0.29%	0.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.08%	0.35%	0.24%	0.51%	0.17%				0.31%	0.68%	0.75%	0.14%
Buffalo Bills			0.32%	1.70%	1.74%	2.17%	0.69%				1.71%	3.63%	2.86%	0.87%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.08%	0.20%			0.16%		0.07%	0.10%	0.43%	0.05%	0.19%		0.33%	0.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.66%	1.82%			1.22%		0.54%	1.83%	2.79%	0.35%	1.61%		3.38%	0.71%
Denver Broncos	0.57%	1.00%	0.17%	1.08%		1.25%		1.22%	1.69%	0.22%		2.43%
Houston Oilers	0.86%	2.48%			1.89%		0.75%	2.25%	3.90%	0.42%	2.41%		4.13%	0.96%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.15%	0.46%	0.10%	0.30%		0.46%		0.37%	0.65%	0.16%		0.87%
Miami Dolphins			0.27%	1.13%	1.21%	1.38%	0.37%				0.88%	2.33%	2.12%	0.53%
New England Patriots			0.77%	3.46%	2.93%	4.00%	1.45%				3.18%	6.85%	5.74%	1.27%
New York Jets			0.04%	0.09%	0.22%	0.21%	0.07%				0.10%	0.33%	0.28%	0.09%
Oakland Raiders	0.87%	1.91%	0.37%	1.91%		2.49%		1.52%	3.10%	0.31%		4.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.69%	4.43%			3.81%		1.68%	3.57%	6.53%	1.06%	3.84%		6.95%	1.74%
San Diego Chargers	1.96%	4.26%	0.93%	4.34%		5.25%		3.50%	6.36%	1.11%		7.64%
Seattle Seahawks	0.14%	0.42%	0.13%	0.23%		0.23%		0.36%	0.41%	0.13%		0.66%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		1.92%	4.89%	3.52%	1.20%		1.72%		0.35%	5.78%		1.04%	2.09%	1.22%
Chicago Bears	1.63%		2.52%			2.09%		0.15%	0.19%	2.74%	0.58%	0.65%		0.54%
Dallas Cowboys	6.23%	5.21%		7.92%	2.63%	8.95%	4.40%	0.80%			2.32%		3.53%
Detroit Lions	2.08%		3.97%			2.58%		0.28%	0.36%	3.56%	0.93%	0.87%		1.11%
Green Bay Packers	0.35%		0.46%			0.37%		0.11%	0.06%	0.65%	0.14%	0.08%		0.20%
Los Angeles Rams		3.54%	7.74%	5.18%	1.69%		2.62%		0.51%	8.31%		1.38%	2.35%	2.23%
Minnesota Vikings	1.21%		1.97%			1.90%		0.23%	0.13%	1.99%	0.38%	0.73%		0.40%
New Orleans Saints		0.15%	0.13%	0.12%	0.06%		0.04%		0.01%	0.09%		0.07%	0.09%	0.03%
New York Giants	0.05%	0.11%		0.16%	0.07%	0.13%	0.09%				0.03%		0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.87%	5.27%		7.96%	2.79%	8.97%	4.44%	0.83%			2.54%		3.78%
San Francisco 49ers		0.22%	0.60%	0.47%	0.18%		0.32%		0.07%	0.55%		0.14%	0.23%	0.12%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.40%	0.44%		0.44%	0.24%	0.50%	0.29%	0.08%			0.19%		0.29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.48%		0.86%			0.77%		0.09%	0.12%	0.98%	0.26%	0.30%		0.29%
Washington Redskins	0.56%	0.49%		1.14%	0.33%	0.87%	0.52%	0.07%			0.20%		0.50%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.09%	0.01%	0.12%	0.10%	0.14%		0.03%	0.13%		0.06%	0.19%	0.26%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.19%		0.10%	0.54%	0.58%	1.07%	0.16%	0.40%	1.08%	0.04%	0.45%	1.39%	1.57%	0.16%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.02%		0.04%	0.02%	0.08%	0.03%	0.02%	0.08%	0.02%	0.05%	0.07%	0.13%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.12%	0.78%	0.08%		0.27%	0.65%	0.18%	0.43%	1.17%	0.06%	0.41%	1.50%	1.64%	0.13%
Denver Broncos	0.12%	0.35%	0.06%	0.28%		0.34%	0.07%	0.22%	0.49%	0.02%	0.32%	0.65%	0.77%	0.08%
Houston Oilers	0.24%	0.95%	0.07%	0.77%	0.54%		0.20%	0.74%	1.68%	0.07%	0.89%	2.21%	2.04%	0.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.13%	0.07%	0.14%		0.09%	0.23%	0.04%	0.13%	0.25%	0.20%
Miami Dolphins	0.10%	0.27%	0.07%	0.35%	0.33%	0.33%	0.14%		0.62%	0.02%	0.29%	0.72%	0.68%	0.09%
New England Patriots	0.32%	1.30%	0.19%	1.07%	0.83%	1.62%	0.42%	1.06%		0.11%	1.65%	3.56%	3.44%	0.23%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.01%			0.04%	0.09%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%		0.01%	0.12%	0.06%	0.03%
Oakland Raiders	0.14%	0.78%	0.07%	0.69%	0.58%	0.86%	0.16%	0.57%	1.58%	0.14%		1.64%	1.46%	0.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.44%	1.71%	0.20%	1.71%	1.34%	2.09%	0.31%	1.22%	3.47%	0.24%	1.36%		3.75%	0.48%
San Diego Chargers	0.30%	1.60%	0.20%	1.77%	1.15%	2.04%	0.45%	1.35%	3.19%	0.24%	2.12%	4.46%		0.36%
Seattle Seahawks	0.05%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.05%	0.11%		0.05%	0.22%	0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.97%	2.79%	1.36%	0.25%	2.28%	0.71%	0.09%	0.05%	2.51%	0.26%	0.23%	0.45%	0.32%
Chicago Bears	0.66%		0.74%	0.47%	0.06%	0.80%	0.21%	0.05%	0.04%	0.75%	0.11%	0.11%	0.07%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	3.29%	1.74%		2.35%	0.45%	4.51%	1.22%	0.18%	0.04%	7.92%	0.46%	0.41%	0.69%	0.82%
Detroit Lions	0.78%	0.52%	0.99%		0.07%	1.28%	0.38%	0.02%	0.04%	1.28%	0.19%	0.10%	0.18%	0.12%
Green Bay Packers	0.08%	0.04%	0.14%	0.06%		0.11%	0.01%		0.01%	0.08%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	2.60%	1.49%	4.15%	2.26%	0.40%		1.51%	0.09%	0.13%	4.83%	0.24%	0.49%	0.82%	0.55%
Minnesota Vikings	0.52%	0.17%	0.56%	0.33%	0.04%	0.75%		0.03%	0.04%	0.67%	0.15%	0.05%	0.07%	0.10%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%		0.02%	0.01%		0.03%				0.02%			0.01%
New York Giants	0.04%	0.04%	0.02%	0.02%		0.02%				0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.93%	1.69%	7.76%	2.53%	0.49%	5.55%	1.27%	0.15%	0.16%		0.62%	0.62%	0.79%	0.81%
San Francisco 49ers	0.08%	0.06%	0.12%	0.11%	0.01%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.21%		0.03%	0.02%	0.03%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.06%	0.04%	0.09%	0.03%		0.15%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.21%	0.04%		0.05%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.14%	0.08%	0.15%	0.10%	0.01%	0.15%	0.04%	0.01%		0.19%	0.03%	0.03%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.27%	0.13%	0.38%	0.16%	0.04%	0.31%	0.03%	0.05%		0.38%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.04%	0.65%		0.03%	0.45%		0.24%			0.63%	0.12%		0.32%		1.10%			0.06%	0.54%		1.29%	1.05%		0.06%
Baltimore Colts	0.04%			0.02%			0.14%		0.03%				0.07%		0.02%		0.01%				0.05%			0.02%				0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.39%			0.13%			0.73%		0.34%	0.02%			0.53%		0.11%						0.96%			0.04%		0.02%	0.06%	0.03%
Chicago Bears		0.01%	0.20%		0.02%	0.06%		0.09%			0.22%	0.03%		0.08%		0.24%				0.17%		0.41%	0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%			0.02%			0.06%		0.04%				0.03%								0.06%			0.01%				0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.37%			0.17%			0.84%		0.26%	0.01%			0.65%		0.16%		0.01%				0.81%			0.05%		0.11%	0.02%	0.07%
Dallas Cowboys		0.24%	1.19%		0.09%	1.14%		0.61%			1.42%	0.26%		0.57%		2.07%			0.06%	1.08%		2.44%	2.54%		0.12%
Denver Broncos	0.14%			0.08%			0.34%		0.10%	0.02%			0.25%		0.05%						0.41%			0.01%		0.02%		0.03%
Detroit Lions		0.05%	0.17%		0.02%	0.17%		0.07%			0.25%	0.04%		0.13%		0.37%			0.01%	0.18%		0.46%	0.31%		0.02%
Green Bay Packers		0.02%	0.02%									0.01%		0.01%		0.05%				0.01%		0.02%	0.03%		0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.65%			0.29%			1.13%		0.28%	0.07%			1.05%		0.23%			0.03%			1.04%			0.04%		0.03%	0.05%	0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.05%			0.01%			0.06%		0.05%	0.01%			0.08%		0.03%						0.12%			0.01%			0.03%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams		0.15%	0.72%		0.07%	0.88%		0.56%			1.28%	0.18%		0.44%		1.42%			0.04%	0.70%		1.96%	1.89%		0.14%
Miami Dolphins	0.27%			0.10%			0.30%		0.14%	0.01%			0.38%		0.04%		0.01%	0.01%			0.33%			0.03%		0.01%	0.03%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings		0.01%	0.10%			0.10%		0.06%			0.19%	0.03%		0.08%		0.31%				0.10%		0.34%	0.29%		0.02%
New England Patriots	0.94%			0.38%			1.59%		0.62%	0.07%			1.49%		0.34%		0.01%	0.05%			1.71%			0.07%		0.07%	0.12%	0.24%
New Orleans Saints																						0.01%	0.02%
New York Giants																						0.01%
New York Jets	0.01%						0.02%						0.05%								0.04%							0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.57%			0.27%			1.01%		0.33%	0.06%			0.88%		0.25%		0.02%	0.02%			0.99%			0.05%		0.02%	0.05%	0.13%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.22%	1.19%		0.09%	1.02%		0.61%			1.37%	0.21%		0.66%		2.28%			0.13%	1.31%		2.48%	2.87%		0.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.05%			0.31%			1.90%		0.70%	0.05%			1.62%		0.31%		0.01%	0.04%			2.00%			0.11%		0.13%	0.19%	0.21%
San Diego Chargers	1.17%			0.51%			2.12%		0.79%	0.10%			1.96%		0.31%			0.01%			2.24%			0.11%		0.12%	0.14%	0.18%
San Francisco 49ers			0.02%		0.01%			0.01%			0.03%	0.03%				0.02%				0.02%		0.06%	0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	0.02%			0.03%			0.01%		0.02%				0.09%								0.06%			0.01%			0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals			0.03%			0.01%					0.04%					0.04%				0.03%		0.03%	0.02%		0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.02%			0.04%		0.01%			0.02%			0.02%		0.03%				0.02%		0.05%	0.03%
Washington Redskins		0.02%	0.06%			0.02%		0.06%			0.09%			0.02%		0.17%				0.03%		0.13%	0.13%		0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	63.75%	34.00%	18.67%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	58.12%	33.68%	16.63%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	56.36%	29.34%	14.58%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	51.81%	23.38%	10.46%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	56.78%	29.77%	15.24%	8.78%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	41.42%	18.61%	8.13%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	55.52%	28.46%	13.98%	6.93%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	43.22%	19.40%	10.09%	5.72%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	44.48%	20.19%	10.35%	5.31%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	30.72%	11.33%	4.79%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Oakland Raiders
Houston Oilers		44.48%
Oakland Raiders	55.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Cowboys		56.78%
Los Angeles Rams	43.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		19.73%			21.69%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	24.75%			27.06%
Houston Oilers					20.19%
Oakland Raiders		28.46%
San Diego Chargers	33.83%		24.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons		27.01%		29.35%
Dallas Cowboys	29.77%
Los Angeles Rams					19.40%
Minnesota Vikings	13.87%				16.85%
Philadelphia Eagles			23.82%	39.93%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		4.85%	4.34%	5.52%	3.90%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	5.68%		5.50%		12.20%
Houston Oilers	4.46%	5.89%
Oakland Raiders	5.64%				8.34%
San Diego Chargers	7.03%	17.69%		8.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons			6.67%	5.14%	17.53%
Dallas Cowboys				5.48%	9.76%
Los Angeles Rams	6.27%			3.82%
Minnesota Vikings	2.84%	3.39%	2.64%		2.46%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.91%	11.14%		4.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Houston Oilers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	San Diego Chargers
Atlanta Falcons		2.82%	3.49%		1.56%			2.03%		4.68%
Buffalo Bills	2.50%			1.21%		0.72%	1.08%		2.62%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.38%			1.36%		0.90%	1.62%		3.20%
Dallas Cowboys		1.73%	2.05%		0.78%			1.32%		2.90%
Houston Oilers	1.74%			0.64%		0.51%	0.85%		1.57%
Los Angeles Rams		1.14%	1.47%		0.47%			0.68%		1.96%
Minnesota Vikings		1.05%	1.20%		0.51%			0.63%		1.40%
Oakland Raiders	1.93%			1.06%		0.63%	0.81%		2.50%
Philadelphia Eagles		3.74%	4.71%		1.72%			2.39%		6.11%
San Diego Chargers	5.21%			2.19%		1.61%	2.18%		5.44%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Philadelphia Eagles 18.67% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

62.64%

Win Prob

70.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

52.68%

Win Prob

50.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

32.73%

Win Prob

52.90%

San Diego Chargers 16.63% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

58.21%

Win Prob

60.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

52.52%

Win Prob

59.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

32.71%

Win Prob

47.10%

Atlanta Falcons 14.58% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

52.08%

Win Prob

67.91%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

59.75%

Win Prob

49.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

32.10%

Win Prob

47.32%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 10.46% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

52.23%

Win Prob

48.74%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

52.18%

Win Prob

40.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

32.31%

Win Prob

49.20%

Dallas Cowboys 8.78% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.78%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.43%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

64.04%

Win Prob

46.70%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

33.03%

Win Prob

56.97%

Buffalo Bills 8.13% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

52.37%

Win Prob

39.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

29.66%

Win Prob

49.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

32.23%

Win Prob

41.19%

Oakland Raiders 6.93% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.52%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.26%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

59.66%

Win Prob

48.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

36.08%

Win Prob

51.12%

Los Angeles Rams 5.72% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.22%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.89%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

62.14%

Win Prob

48.45%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

34.27%

Win Prob

54.90%

Houston Oilers 5.31% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.48%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

56.91%

Win Prob

51.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

32.77%

Win Prob

52.73%

Minnesota Vikings 4.79% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.85%

Win Prob

29.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

29.92%

Win Prob

38.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

29.23%

Win Prob

39.11%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1980-09-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-24	1456.86	1470.90	43.04%	56.40%	-4.61	0-1
1980-09-14	@ New England Patriots	W 37-21	1452.25	1546.55	32.26%	67.19%	+28.73	1-1
1980-09-21	Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1480.98	1521.94	48.53%	50.91%	-9.00	1-2
1980-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1471.98	1481.18	43.73%	55.71%	+10.32	2-2
1980-10-05	Detroit Lions	W 43-28	1482.30	1537.26	46.52%	52.92%	+21.93	3-2
1980-10-12	New York Jets	L 7-14	1504.23	1416.14	66.40%	33.04%	-18.78	3-3
1980-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 41-14	1485.45	1397.88	57.55%	41.89%	+23.31	4-3
1980-10-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 13-10	1508.76	1577.94	44.49%	54.95%	+10.18	5-3
1980-11-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-14	1518.94	1556.98	39.69%	59.75%	+25.55	6-3
1980-11-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-27	1544.49	1463.99	56.56%	42.88%	+11.25	7-3
1980-11-16	New Orleans Saints	W 31-13	1555.74	1349.18	79.47%	19.97%	+9.09	8-3
1980-11-23	Chicago Bears	W 28-17	1564.83	1489.49	64.76%	34.68%	+12.33	9-3
1980-11-30	Washington Redskins	W 10-6	1577.16	1420.97	74.44%	25.00%	+5.37	10-3
1980-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1582.53	1647.63	36.03%	63.41%	+11.74	11-3
1980-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-10	1594.27	1424.72	75.85%	23.59%	+12.66	12-3
1980-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1606.93	1600.29	45.98%	53.46%	-8.53	12-4
1980-09-07	@ New York Jets	W 17-14	1454.96	1490.80	40.00%	59.44%	+11.01	1-0
1980-09-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1465.97	1608.54	34.44%	65.00%	-6.39	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-21	1459.58	1532.02	35.06%	64.38%	-8.41	1-2
1980-09-28	New York Jets	W 35-21	1451.17	1446.82	55.03%	44.42%	+17.80	2-2
1980-10-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-17	1468.97	1539.03	35.38%	64.07%	+24.69	3-2
1980-10-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-12	1493.66	1556.91	36.28%	63.16%	+15.10	4-2
1980-10-19	New England Patriots	L 21-37	1508.76	1581.87	43.93%	55.51%	-18.82	4-3
1980-10-26	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-17	1489.94	1453.63	59.51%	39.93%	-16.83	4-4
1980-11-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1473.11	1485.61	43.26%	56.18%	+15.90	5-4
1980-11-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-28	1489.01	1543.61	46.57%	52.87%	-4.99	5-5
1980-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 10-9	1484.02	1469.64	47.09%	52.35%	+5.60	6-5
1980-11-23	@ New England Patriots	L 21-47	1489.62	1564.33	34.77%	64.67%	-19.00	6-6
1980-11-30	Buffalo Bills	W 28-24	1470.62	1579.77	38.90%	60.54%	+12.95	7-6
1980-12-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 33-34	1483.57	1429.40	52.81%	46.63%	-5.65	7-7
1980-12-14	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1477.92	1508.17	50.07%	49.37%	-16.94	7-8
1980-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-38	1460.98	1471.27	52.94%	46.51%	-17.91	7-9
1980-09-07	Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1478.61	1535.88	46.19%	53.25%	+18.01	1-0
1980-09-14	New York Jets	W 20-10	1496.62	1479.79	56.79%	42.65%	+14.45	2-0
1980-09-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-26	1511.07	1463.86	51.81%	47.63%	+15.29	3-0
1980-09-28	Oakland Raiders	W 24-7	1526.36	1537.98	52.74%	46.70%	+20.61	4-0
1980-10-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 26-24	1546.97	1629.97	33.69%	65.75%	+9.94	5-0
1980-10-12	Baltimore Colts	L 12-17	1556.91	1493.66	63.16%	36.28%	-15.10	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1541.81	1489.98	52.47%	46.97%	-9.72	5-2
1980-10-26	New England Patriots	W 31-13	1532.09	1600.69	44.57%	54.87%	+24.89	6-2
1980-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-30	1556.98	1518.94	59.75%	39.69%	-25.55	6-3
1980-11-09	@ New York Jets	W 31-24	1531.43	1419.83	60.87%	38.57%	+10.93	7-3
1980-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-0	1542.36	1434.20	60.40%	39.04%	+15.65	8-3
1980-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-13	1558.01	1610.22	46.91%	52.53%	+21.76	9-3
1980-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-28	1579.77	1470.62	60.54%	38.90%	-12.94	9-4
1980-12-07	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-7	1566.83	1579.83	52.55%	46.89%	+8.69	10-4
1980-12-14	@ New England Patriots	L 2-24	1575.52	1558.23	47.51%	51.93%	-23.85	10-5
1980-12-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 18-13	1551.67	1412.06	64.62%	34.82%	+8.35	11-5
1980-09-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-12	1507.23	1461.17	51.65%	47.79%	-13.53	0-1
1980-09-14	New Orleans Saints	W 22-3	1493.70	1484.25	55.75%	43.69%	+20.39	1-1
1980-09-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-34	1514.09	1447.52	63.60%	35.84%	-30.41	1-2
1980-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-38	1483.68	1604.93	28.96%	70.48%	-18.37	1-3
1980-10-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-0	1465.31	1468.82	53.90%	45.54%	+23.38	2-3
1980-10-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-13	1488.69	1450.76	50.48%	48.96%	-13.23	2-4
1980-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 24-7	1475.46	1526.27	47.11%	52.33%	+23.08	3-4
1980-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1498.54	1607.24	30.47%	68.97%	-5.66	3-5
1980-11-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-27	1492.88	1533.28	39.37%	60.07%	-10.33	3-6
1980-11-09	Washington Redskins	W 35-21	1482.55	1457.28	57.97%	41.47%	+16.61	4-6
1980-11-16	Houston Oilers	L 6-10	1499.16	1563.47	45.18%	54.26%	-9.67	4-7
1980-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-28	1489.49	1564.83	34.68%	64.76%	-12.33	4-8
1980-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1477.16	1484.36	44.01%	55.43%	+14.52	5-8
1980-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 61-7	1491.68	1438.62	61.80%	37.64%	+29.64	6-8
1980-12-14	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1521.32	1435.05	66.17%	33.27%	-12.25	6-9
1980-12-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-13	1509.07	1398.17	60.78%	38.66%	+4.14	7-9
1980-09-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 12-17	1480.55	1480.24	54.45%	44.99%	-13.02	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1467.53	1517.87	38.01%	61.43%	-4.08	0-2
1980-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-28	1463.45	1614.93	33.29%	66.15%	+10.00	1-2
1980-09-28	Houston Oilers	L 10-13	1473.45	1540.42	44.80%	54.64%	-8.30	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-14	1465.15	1406.70	53.42%	46.02%	-12.78	1-4
1980-10-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-16	1452.37	1631.63	22.60%	76.84%	+8.21	2-4
1980-10-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-0	1460.58	1463.99	53.92%	45.52%	+18.24	3-4
1980-10-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-23	1478.82	1523.61	38.77%	60.67%	-18.58	3-5
1980-11-02	San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1460.24	1591.43	35.93%	63.51%	-15.87	3-6
1980-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-28	1444.37	1568.82	28.58%	70.86%	-10.17	3-7
1980-11-16	Buffalo Bills	L 0-14	1434.20	1542.36	39.04%	60.40%	-15.65	3-8
1980-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-31	1418.55	1541.65	28.74%	70.70%	-15.10	3-9
1980-11-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-6	1403.45	1479.69	34.57%	64.87%	+25.95	4-9
1980-12-07	Baltimore Colts	W 34-33	1429.40	1483.57	46.63%	52.81%	+5.65	5-9
1980-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1435.05	1521.32	33.27%	66.17%	+12.25	6-9
1980-12-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1447.30	1558.22	38.66%	60.78%	-7.18	6-10
1980-09-07	@ New England Patriots	L 17-34	1505.64	1528.06	41.87%	57.58%	-18.48	0-1
1980-09-15	Houston Oilers	L 7-16	1487.16	1515.88	50.29%	49.15%	-16.14	0-2
1980-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-13	1471.02	1453.24	56.92%	42.52%	+12.04	1-2
1980-09-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-27	1483.06	1484.27	44.86%	54.58%	+15.45	2-2
1980-10-05	Denver Broncos	L 16-19	1498.51	1499.44	54.27%	45.17%	-10.06	2-3
1980-10-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-3	1488.45	1527.23	39.59%	59.85%	+31.35	3-3
1980-10-19	Green Bay Packers	W 26-21	1519.80	1419.92	67.88%	31.56%	+7.57	4-3
1980-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-26	1527.37	1599.02	44.14%	55.30%	+5.91	5-3
1980-11-03	Chicago Bears	W 27-21	1533.28	1492.88	60.07%	39.37%	+10.33	6-3
1980-11-09	@ Baltimore Colts	W 28-27	1543.61	1489.01	52.87%	46.57%	+4.99	7-3
1980-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1548.60	1603.27	37.43%	62.02%	-6.95	7-4
1980-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-7	1541.65	1418.55	70.70%	28.74%	+15.10	8-4
1980-11-30	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-14	1556.75	1560.40	44.52%	54.92%	+10.18	9-4
1980-12-07	New York Jets	W 17-14	1566.93	1399.43	75.64%	23.80%	+4.42	10-4
1980-12-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-28	1571.35	1502.47	54.91%	44.53%	-13.13	10-5
1980-12-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1558.22	1447.30	60.78%	38.66%	+7.17	11-5
1980-09-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-3	1549.15	1518.48	49.43%	50.01%	+20.02	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-41	1569.17	1506.62	54.01%	45.43%	-26.47	1-1
1980-09-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-17	1542.70	1498.05	60.65%	38.79%	+13.78	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-7	1556.48	1424.28	63.64%	35.80%	+17.58	3-1
1980-10-05	New York Giants	W 24-3	1574.06	1420.24	74.18%	25.26%	+12.42	4-1
1980-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 59-14	1586.48	1452.42	71.97%	27.47%	+19.77	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-17	1606.25	1593.99	46.79%	52.65%	-13.25	5-2
1980-10-26	San Diego Chargers	W 42-31	1593.00	1608.19	52.23%	47.21%	+16.75	6-2
1980-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-24	1609.75	1470.46	64.58%	34.86%	+6.48	7-2
1980-11-09	@ New York Giants	L 35-38	1616.23	1356.95	78.29%	21.15%	-14.50	7-3
1980-11-16	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-21	1601.73	1452.74	73.65%	25.79%	+8.75	8-3
1980-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1610.48	1425.70	77.39%	22.05%	+4.73	9-3
1980-11-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 51-7	1615.21	1453.74	75.00%	24.44%	+17.40	10-3
1980-12-07	@ Oakland Raiders	W 19-13	1632.61	1588.73	51.33%	48.11%	+12.61	11-3
1980-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-38	1645.22	1571.13	55.65%	43.79%	-29.16	11-4
1980-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-27	1616.06	1644.82	50.28%	49.16%	+14.88	12-4
1980-09-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-27	1529.04	1524.46	45.69%	53.75%	-22.42	0-1
1980-09-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-20	1506.62	1569.17	45.43%	54.01%	+26.47	1-1
1980-09-21	San Diego Chargers	L 13-30	1533.09	1596.57	45.30%	54.14%	-19.99	1-2
1980-09-29	@ New England Patriots	L 14-23	1513.10	1530.98	42.50%	56.94%	-13.66	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-16	1499.44	1498.51	45.17%	54.27%	+10.06	2-3
1980-10-13	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1509.50	1464.36	60.72%	38.72%	+7.18	3-3
1980-10-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-23	1516.68	1460.26	62.25%	37.19%	-16.30	3-4
1980-10-26	@ New York Giants	W 14-9	1500.38	1381.68	61.84%	37.60%	+9.01	4-4
1980-11-02	Houston Oilers	L 16-20	1509.39	1542.18	49.70%	49.74%	-10.64	4-5
1980-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1498.75	1607.31	30.49%	68.95%	+19.51	5-5
1980-11-16	New York Jets	W 31-24	1518.26	1408.89	69.05%	30.39%	+8.62	6-5
1980-11-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 36-20	1526.88	1469.63	62.36%	37.08%	+15.89	7-5
1980-12-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-9	1542.77	1578.23	40.05%	59.39%	-10.51	7-6
1980-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-31	1532.26	1453.74	56.28%	43.16%	-24.81	7-7
1980-12-14	Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1507.45	1576.12	44.56%	54.88%	-8.26	7-8
1980-12-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 25-17	1499.19	1411.93	57.50%	41.94%	+12.70	8-8
1980-09-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 41-20	1444.72	1522.50	34.37%	65.07%	+31.88	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Green Bay Packers	W 29-7	1476.60	1474.71	45.31%	54.14%	+27.16	2-0
1980-09-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-7	1503.76	1452.76	61.52%	37.92%	+14.65	3-0
1980-09-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-7	1518.41	1477.93	60.08%	39.36%	+18.85	4-0
1980-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-43	1537.26	1482.30	52.92%	46.52%	-21.92	4-1
1980-10-12	New Orleans Saints	W 24-13	1515.34	1408.81	68.70%	30.74%	+10.93	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-24	1526.27	1475.46	52.33%	47.11%	-23.08	5-2
1980-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1503.19	1476.56	48.85%	50.59%	-9.05	5-3
1980-11-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1494.14	1412.68	65.55%	33.89%	+7.26	6-3
1980-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-34	1501.40	1460.39	50.92%	48.52%	-31.76	6-4
1980-11-16	Baltimore Colts	L 9-10	1469.64	1484.02	52.35%	47.09%	-5.60	6-5
1980-11-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-10	1464.04	1438.62	48.68%	50.76%	+20.32	7-5
1980-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 17-23	1484.36	1477.16	55.43%	44.01%	-14.52	7-6
1980-12-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-24	1469.84	1448.06	48.15%	51.29%	-5.16	7-7
1980-12-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1464.68	1412.77	61.64%	37.80%	+14.61	8-7
1980-12-21	Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1479.29	1393.63	66.09%	33.35%	+16.38	9-7
1980-09-07	Chicago Bears	W 12-6	1461.17	1507.23	47.79%	51.65%	+13.54	1-0
1980-09-14	Detroit Lions	L 7-29	1474.71	1476.60	54.14%	45.31%	-27.16	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-51	1447.55	1485.84	39.66%	59.78%	-23.27	1-2
1980-09-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1424.28	1556.48	35.80%	63.64%	-17.58	1-3
1980-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-9	1406.70	1465.15	46.02%	53.42%	+12.78	2-3
1980-10-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	T 14-14	1419.48	1445.44	41.37%	58.07%	+0.44	2-3
1980-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-26	1419.92	1519.80	31.56%	67.88%	-7.56	2-4
1980-10-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-3	1412.36	1445.75	49.62%	49.83%	+19.22	3-4
1980-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-22	1431.58	1593.10	24.43%	75.01%	-3.71	3-5
1980-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-16	1427.87	1405.41	57.58%	41.86%	+11.86	4-5
1980-11-16	@ New York Giants	L 21-27	1439.73	1371.45	54.82%	44.62%	-14.36	4-6
1980-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 25-13	1425.37	1504.03	34.25%	65.19%	+24.14	5-6
1980-11-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1449.51	1418.30	58.80%	40.64%	-10.89	5-7
1980-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-61	1438.62	1491.68	37.64%	61.80%	-29.64	5-8
1980-12-14	Houston Oilers	L 3-22	1408.98	1563.96	32.84%	66.60%	-15.35	5-9
1980-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-24	1393.63	1479.29	33.35%	66.09%	-16.38	5-10
1980-09-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-31	1530.40	1594.01	36.23%	63.21%	-14.52	0-1
1980-09-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-7	1515.88	1487.16	49.15%	50.29%	+16.14	1-1
1980-09-21	Baltimore Colts	W 21-16	1532.02	1459.58	64.38%	35.06%	+8.40	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-10	1540.42	1473.45	54.64%	44.80%	+8.31	3-1
1980-10-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-26	1548.73	1498.62	61.40%	38.04%	-28.61	3-2
1980-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-21	1520.12	1454.43	54.45%	44.99%	-5.83	3-3
1980-10-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-14	1514.29	1445.00	63.96%	35.48%	+9.32	4-3
1980-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-3	1523.61	1478.82	60.67%	38.77%	+18.57	5-3
1980-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 20-16	1542.18	1509.39	49.74%	49.70%	+10.64	6-3
1980-11-10	New England Patriots	W 38-34	1552.82	1585.90	49.66%	49.78%	+10.65	7-3
1980-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-6	1563.47	1499.16	54.26%	45.18%	+9.67	8-3
1980-11-23	@ New York Jets	L 28-31	1573.14	1400.27	68.83%	30.61%	-12.74	8-4
1980-11-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-17	1560.40	1556.75	54.92%	44.52%	-10.18	8-5
1980-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 6-0	1550.22	1601.77	47.01%	52.43%	+13.74	9-5
1980-12-14	@ Green Bay Packers	W 22-3	1563.96	1408.98	66.60%	32.84%	+15.35	10-5
1980-12-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-16	1579.31	1515.60	63.22%	36.22%	+7.76	11-5
1980-09-07	Oakland Raiders	L 14-27	1477.21	1521.87	48.00%	51.45%	-18.52	0-1
1980-09-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1458.69	1483.29	50.88%	48.56%	-5.45	0-2
1980-09-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-20	1453.24	1471.02	42.52%	56.92%	-12.04	0-3
1980-09-28	San Diego Chargers	L 7-24	1441.20	1616.57	30.31%	69.13%	-13.40	0-4
1980-10-05	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-17	1427.80	1517.37	32.85%	66.59%	+26.63	1-4
1980-10-12	Houston Oilers	W 21-20	1454.43	1520.12	44.99%	54.45%	+5.83	2-4
1980-10-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-17	1460.26	1516.68	37.19%	62.25%	+16.30	3-4
1980-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1476.56	1503.19	50.59%	48.85%	+9.05	4-4
1980-11-02	Baltimore Colts	L 24-31	1485.61	1473.11	56.18%	43.26%	-15.89	4-5
1980-11-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-30	1469.72	1481.65	43.34%	56.10%	+6.00	5-5
1980-11-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-20	1475.72	1587.80	30.06%	69.38%	-11.63	5-6
1980-11-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-13	1464.09	1443.99	47.91%	51.53%	+15.60	6-6
1980-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-20	1479.69	1403.45	64.87%	34.57%	-25.95	6-7
1980-12-07	Denver Broncos	W 31-14	1453.74	1532.26	43.16%	56.28%	+24.81	7-7
1980-12-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-21	1478.55	1588.03	30.38%	69.07%	-7.28	7-8
1980-12-21	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-28	1471.27	1460.98	46.51%	52.94%	+17.90	8-8
1980-09-07	Detroit Lions	L 20-41	1522.50	1444.72	65.07%	34.37%	-31.88	0-1
1980-09-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-10	1490.62	1493.27	44.66%	54.78%	-4.78	0-2
1980-09-21	Green Bay Packers	W 51-21	1485.84	1447.55	59.78%	39.66%	+23.27	1-2
1980-09-28	@ New York Giants	W 28-7	1509.11	1442.23	54.62%	44.82%	+21.98	2-2
1980-10-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 48-26	1531.09	1470.86	62.76%	36.68%	+18.44	3-2
1980-10-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-13	1549.53	1492.28	53.25%	46.19%	+13.98	4-2
1980-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-17	1563.51	1432.66	63.47%	35.98%	+14.43	5-2
1980-10-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-13	1577.94	1508.76	54.95%	44.49%	-10.18	5-3
1980-11-02	New Orleans Saints	W 45-31	1567.76	1365.28	79.10%	20.34%	+8.17	6-3
1980-11-09	Miami Dolphins	L 14-35	1575.93	1479.96	67.40%	32.04%	-33.01	6-4
1980-11-16	@ New England Patriots	W 17-14	1542.92	1575.25	40.48%	58.96%	+10.92	7-4
1980-11-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-7	1553.84	1340.08	73.59%	25.85%	+12.40	8-4
1980-11-30	New York Jets	W 38-13	1566.24	1413.02	74.11%	25.33%	+13.59	9-4
1980-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-10	1579.83	1566.83	46.89%	52.55%	-8.70	9-5
1980-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-14	1571.13	1645.22	43.79%	55.65%	+29.16	10-5
1980-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1600.29	1606.93	53.46%	45.98%	+8.52	11-5
1980-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-17	1535.88	1478.61	53.25%	46.19%	-18.01	0-1
1980-09-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-16	1517.87	1467.53	61.43%	38.01%	+4.07	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1521.94	1480.98	50.91%	48.53%	+8.99	2-1
1980-09-28	New Orleans Saints	W 21-16	1530.93	1448.57	65.67%	33.77%	+8.10	3-1
1980-10-05	Baltimore Colts	L 17-30	1539.03	1468.97	64.07%	35.38%	-24.69	3-2
1980-10-12	@ New England Patriots	L 0-34	1514.34	1557.52	38.99%	60.45%	-24.36	3-3
1980-10-19	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1489.98	1541.81	46.97%	52.47%	+9.72	4-3
1980-10-27	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1499.70	1419.47	56.52%	42.92%	-10.46	4-4
1980-11-02	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-16	1489.24	1559.55	35.34%	64.10%	-9.28	4-5
1980-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 35-14	1479.96	1575.93	32.04%	67.40%	+33.01	5-5
1980-11-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1512.97	1393.55	70.26%	29.18%	+6.26	6-5
1980-11-20	San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1519.23	1599.43	42.93%	56.51%	-7.96	6-6
1980-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1511.27	1588.45	34.44%	65.00%	-13.31	6-7
1980-12-08	New England Patriots	W 16-13	1497.96	1568.44	44.30%	55.14%	+10.21	7-7
1980-12-14	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-14	1508.17	1477.92	49.37%	50.07%	+16.94	8-7
1980-12-20	New York Jets	L 17-24	1525.11	1388.03	72.32%	27.12%	-20.45	8-8
1980-09-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1470.90	1456.86	56.40%	43.04%	+4.61	1-0
1980-09-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-42	1475.51	1546.87	44.18%	55.26%	-27.99	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-14	1447.52	1514.09	35.84%	63.60%	+30.41	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-27	1477.93	1518.41	39.36%	60.08%	-18.85	2-2
1980-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1459.08	1623.31	31.68%	67.76%	-8.32	2-3
1980-10-12	Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1450.76	1488.69	48.96%	50.48%	+13.23	3-3
1980-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-14	1463.99	1460.58	45.52%	53.92%	-18.24	3-4
1980-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-16	1445.75	1412.36	49.83%	49.62%	-19.22	3-5
1980-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 39-14	1426.53	1491.14	36.10%	63.34%	+33.86	4-5
1980-11-09	Detroit Lions	W 34-0	1460.39	1501.40	48.52%	50.92%	+31.77	5-5
1980-11-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-30	1492.16	1450.50	60.24%	39.20%	+11.87	6-5
1980-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 13-25	1504.03	1425.37	65.19%	34.25%	-24.14	6-6
1980-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1479.89	1327.68	66.25%	33.20%	+6.17	7-6
1980-12-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-10	1486.06	1429.19	53.20%	46.25%	+16.41	8-6
1980-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-23	1502.47	1571.35	44.53%	54.91%	+13.13	9-6
1980-12-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-20	1515.60	1579.31	36.22%	63.22%	-7.76	9-7
1980-09-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-17	1528.06	1505.64	57.58%	41.87%	+18.49	1-0
1980-09-14	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-37	1546.55	1452.25	67.19%	32.26%	-28.73	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 37-31	1517.82	1488.73	49.20%	50.24%	+13.16	2-1
1980-09-29	Denver Broncos	W 23-14	1530.98	1513.10	56.94%	42.50%	+13.66	3-1
1980-10-05	@ New York Jets	W 21-11	1544.64	1429.03	61.42%	38.02%	+12.88	4-1
1980-10-12	Miami Dolphins	W 34-0	1557.52	1514.34	60.45%	38.99%	+24.35	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 37-21	1581.87	1508.76	55.51%	43.93%	+18.82	6-1
1980-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1600.69	1532.09	54.87%	44.57%	-24.90	6-2
1980-11-02	New York Jets	W 34-21	1575.79	1429.94	73.30%	26.14%	+10.11	7-2
1980-11-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 34-38	1585.90	1552.82	49.78%	49.66%	-10.65	7-3
1980-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-17	1575.25	1542.92	58.96%	40.48%	-10.92	7-4
1980-11-23	Baltimore Colts	W 47-21	1564.33	1489.62	64.67%	34.77%	+19.00	8-4
1980-11-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-21	1583.33	1403.92	69.62%	29.82%	-14.89	8-5
1980-12-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1568.44	1497.96	55.14%	44.30%	-10.21	8-6
1980-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 24-2	1558.23	1575.52	51.93%	47.51%	+23.85	9-6
1980-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-27	1582.08	1322.57	78.31%	21.13%	+7.52	10-6
1980-09-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-26	1495.70	1442.66	61.79%	37.65%	-11.45	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-22	1484.25	1493.70	43.69%	55.75%	-20.39	0-2
1980-09-21	Buffalo Bills	L 26-35	1463.86	1511.07	47.63%	51.81%	-15.29	0-3
1980-09-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-21	1448.57	1530.93	33.77%	65.67%	-8.10	0-4
1980-10-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-40	1440.47	1460.61	51.52%	47.92%	-31.66	0-5
1980-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-24	1408.81	1515.34	30.74%	68.70%	-10.93	0-6
1980-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-41	1397.88	1485.45	41.89%	57.55%	-23.31	0-7
1980-10-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-22	1374.57	1481.84	30.64%	68.80%	-9.29	0-8
1980-11-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 31-45	1365.28	1567.76	20.34%	79.10%	-8.18	0-9
1980-11-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-34	1357.10	1623.48	20.48%	78.96%	-7.92	0-10
1980-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-31	1349.18	1555.74	19.97%	79.47%	-9.10	0-11
1980-11-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-27	1340.08	1553.84	25.85%	73.59%	-12.40	0-12
1980-11-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1327.68	1479.89	33.20%	66.25%	-6.17	0-13
1980-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 35-38	1321.51	1418.80	31.88%	67.56%	-5.92	0-14
1980-12-14	@ New York Jets	W 21-20	1315.59	1395.01	34.15%	65.29%	+6.98	1-14
1980-12-21	New England Patriots	L 27-38	1322.57	1582.08	21.13%	78.31%	-7.52	1-15
1980-09-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 41-35	1452.73	1476.42	41.69%	57.75%	+15.12	1-0
1980-09-14	Washington Redskins	L 21-23	1467.85	1498.46	50.02%	49.42%	-7.57	1-1
1980-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-35	1460.28	1574.86	29.76%	69.68%	-18.05	1-2
1980-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-28	1442.23	1509.11	44.82%	54.62%	-21.99	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1420.24	1574.06	25.26%	74.18%	-12.42	1-4
1980-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-31	1407.82	1581.30	30.54%	68.90%	-12.68	1-5
1980-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-44	1395.14	1594.72	20.62%	78.82%	-13.46	1-6
1980-10-26	Denver Broncos	L 9-14	1381.68	1500.38	37.60%	61.84%	-9.01	1-7
1980-11-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-30	1372.67	1441.24	35.57%	63.87%	-15.72	1-8
1980-11-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-35	1356.95	1616.23	21.15%	78.29%	+14.50	2-8
1980-11-16	Green Bay Packers	W 27-21	1371.45	1439.73	44.62%	54.82%	+14.36	3-8
1980-11-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-12	1385.81	1387.29	44.82%	54.62%	-16.62	3-9
1980-11-30	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-23	1369.19	1428.40	45.91%	53.53%	-19.66	3-10
1980-12-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1349.53	1436.35	33.20%	66.24%	+17.34	4-10
1980-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1366.87	1452.38	33.37%	66.07%	-6.19	4-11
1980-12-21	Oakland Raiders	L 17-33	1360.68	1584.39	24.77%	74.67%	-10.63	4-12
1980-09-07	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1490.80	1454.96	59.44%	40.00%	-11.01	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-20	1479.79	1496.62	42.65%	56.79%	-14.44	0-2
1980-09-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-37	1465.35	1462.65	54.79%	44.65%	-18.53	0-3
1980-09-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-35	1446.82	1451.17	44.42%	55.03%	-17.79	0-4
1980-10-05	New England Patriots	L 11-21	1429.03	1544.64	38.02%	61.42%	-12.89	0-5
1980-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-7	1416.14	1504.23	33.04%	66.40%	+18.78	1-5
1980-10-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-27	1434.92	1495.89	45.66%	53.78%	-15.45	1-6
1980-10-27	Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1419.47	1499.70	42.92%	56.52%	+10.47	2-6
1980-11-02	@ New England Patriots	L 21-34	1429.94	1575.79	26.14%	73.30%	-10.11	2-7
1980-11-09	Buffalo Bills	L 24-31	1419.83	1531.43	38.57%	60.87%	-10.94	2-8
1980-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1408.89	1518.26	30.39%	69.05%	-8.62	2-9
1980-11-23	Houston Oilers	W 31-28	1400.27	1573.14	30.61%	68.83%	+12.75	3-9
1980-11-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-38	1413.02	1566.24	25.33%	74.11%	-13.59	3-10
1980-12-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-17	1399.43	1566.93	23.80%	75.64%	-4.42	3-11
1980-12-14	New Orleans Saints	L 20-21	1395.01	1315.59	65.29%	34.15%	-6.98	3-12
1980-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-17	1388.03	1525.11	27.12%	72.32%	+20.45	4-12
1980-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-14	1521.87	1477.21	51.45%	48.00%	+18.52	1-0
1980-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-30	1540.39	1586.44	38.60%	60.85%	-10.13	1-1
1980-09-21	Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1530.26	1506.03	57.83%	41.61%	+7.72	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1537.98	1526.36	46.70%	52.74%	-20.61	2-2
1980-10-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1517.37	1427.80	66.59%	32.85%	-26.63	2-3
1980-10-12	San Diego Chargers	W 38-24	1490.74	1620.03	36.18%	63.26%	+25.30	3-3
1980-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-34	1516.04	1623.41	30.63%	68.81%	+24.40	4-3
1980-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-14	1540.44	1511.34	58.51%	40.93%	+19.11	5-3
1980-11-02	Miami Dolphins	W 16-10	1559.55	1489.24	64.10%	35.34%	+9.27	6-3
1980-11-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1568.82	1444.37	70.86%	28.58%	+10.17	7-3
1980-11-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-17	1578.99	1475.65	59.74%	39.70%	+6.02	8-3
1980-11-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1585.01	1646.37	36.53%	62.91%	-6.78	8-4
1980-12-01	Denver Broncos	W 9-3	1578.23	1542.77	59.39%	40.05%	+10.50	9-4
1980-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-19	1588.73	1632.61	48.11%	51.33%	-12.61	9-5
1980-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-21	1576.12	1507.45	54.88%	44.56%	+8.27	10-5
1980-12-21	@ New York Giants	W 33-17	1584.39	1360.68	74.67%	24.77%	+10.63	11-5
1980-09-07	Denver Broncos	W 27-6	1524.46	1529.04	53.75%	45.69%	+22.41	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-7	1546.87	1475.51	55.26%	44.18%	+27.99	2-0
1980-09-22	New York Giants	W 35-3	1574.86	1460.28	69.68%	29.76%	+18.05	3-0
1980-09-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-24	1592.91	1438.11	66.57%	32.87%	-22.51	3-1
1980-10-05	Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1570.40	1475.26	67.29%	32.15%	+10.90	4-1
1980-10-12	@ New York Giants	W 31-16	1581.30	1407.82	68.90%	30.54%	+12.69	5-1
1980-10-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1593.99	1606.25	52.65%	46.79%	+13.25	6-1
1980-10-26	Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1607.24	1498.54	68.97%	30.47%	+5.65	7-1
1980-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1612.89	1492.23	62.10%	37.34%	+10.59	8-1
1980-11-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 34-21	1623.48	1357.10	78.96%	20.48%	+7.93	9-1
1980-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-0	1631.41	1440.66	70.97%	28.47%	+14.96	10-1
1980-11-23	Oakland Raiders	W 10-7	1646.37	1585.01	62.91%	36.53%	+6.78	11-1
1980-11-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-22	1653.15	1607.39	51.60%	47.84%	-5.52	11-2
1980-12-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1647.63	1582.53	63.41%	36.03%	-11.74	11-3
1980-12-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-3	1635.89	1453.21	77.19%	22.26%	+8.93	12-3
1980-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-35	1644.82	1616.06	49.16%	50.28%	-14.87	12-4
1980-09-07	Houston Oilers	W 31-17	1594.01	1530.40	63.21%	36.23%	+14.53	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1608.54	1465.97	65.00%	34.44%	+6.39	2-0
1980-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-30	1614.93	1463.45	66.15%	33.29%	-10.00	2-1
1980-09-28	Chicago Bears	W 38-3	1604.93	1483.68	70.48%	28.96%	+18.38	3-1
1980-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-17	1623.31	1459.08	67.76%	31.68%	+8.32	4-1
1980-10-12	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-17	1631.63	1452.37	76.84%	22.60%	-8.22	4-2
1980-10-20	Oakland Raiders	L 34-45	1623.41	1516.04	68.81%	30.63%	-24.39	4-3
1980-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 26-27	1599.02	1527.37	55.30%	44.14%	-5.92	4-4
1980-11-02	Green Bay Packers	W 22-20	1593.10	1431.58	75.01%	24.43%	+3.71	5-4
1980-11-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-21	1596.81	1456.96	64.65%	34.79%	+6.46	6-4
1980-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-13	1603.27	1548.60	62.02%	37.43%	+6.95	7-4
1980-11-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-28	1610.22	1558.01	52.53%	46.91%	-21.77	7-5
1980-11-30	Miami Dolphins	W 23-10	1588.45	1511.27	65.00%	34.44%	+13.32	8-5
1980-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-6	1601.77	1550.22	52.43%	47.01%	-13.74	8-6
1980-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-16	1588.03	1478.55	69.07%	30.38%	+7.28	9-6
1980-12-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-26	1595.31	1583.20	46.77%	52.68%	-15.02	9-7
1980-09-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-13	1563.83	1505.90	53.35%	46.09%	+22.61	1-0
1980-09-14	Oakland Raiders	W 30-24	1586.44	1540.39	60.85%	38.60%	+10.13	2-0
1980-09-21	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-13	1596.57	1533.09	54.14%	45.30%	+20.00	3-0
1980-09-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-7	1616.57	1441.20	69.13%	30.31%	+13.40	4-0
1980-10-05	Buffalo Bills	L 24-26	1629.97	1546.97	65.75%	33.69%	-9.94	4-1
1980-10-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-38	1620.03	1490.74	63.26%	36.18%	-25.31	4-2
1980-10-19	New York Giants	W 44-7	1594.72	1395.14	78.82%	20.62%	+13.47	5-2
1980-10-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-42	1608.19	1593.00	47.21%	52.23%	-16.76	5-3
1980-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-14	1591.43	1460.24	63.51%	35.93%	+15.88	6-3
1980-11-09	Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1607.31	1498.75	68.95%	30.49%	-19.51	6-4
1980-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-7	1587.80	1475.72	69.38%	30.06%	+11.63	7-4
1980-11-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1599.43	1519.23	56.51%	42.93%	+7.96	8-4
1980-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-21	1607.39	1653.15	47.84%	51.60%	+5.52	9-4
1980-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-40	1612.91	1415.60	71.73%	27.71%	-36.77	9-5
1980-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-14	1576.14	1419.00	74.54%	24.90%	+7.06	10-5
1980-12-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-17	1583.20	1595.31	52.68%	46.77%	+15.02	11-5
1980-09-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-23	1442.66	1495.70	37.65%	61.79%	+11.45	1-0
1980-09-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-21	1454.11	1461.30	53.38%	46.06%	+8.54	2-0
1980-09-21	@ New York Jets	W 37-27	1462.65	1465.35	44.65%	54.79%	+18.53	3-0
1980-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1481.18	1471.98	55.71%	43.73%	-10.32	3-1
1980-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 26-48	1470.86	1531.09	36.68%	62.76%	-18.44	3-2
1980-10-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-59	1452.42	1586.48	27.47%	71.97%	-19.76	3-3
1980-10-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-31	1432.66	1563.51	35.98%	63.47%	-14.43	3-4
1980-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-24	1418.23	1435.69	51.91%	47.53%	-5.55	3-5
1980-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1412.68	1494.14	33.89%	65.55%	-7.27	3-6
1980-11-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-23	1405.41	1427.87	41.86%	57.58%	-11.86	3-7
1980-11-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-17	1393.55	1512.97	29.18%	70.26%	-6.26	3-8
1980-11-23	New York Giants	W 12-0	1387.29	1385.81	54.62%	44.82%	+16.63	4-8
1980-11-30	New England Patriots	W 21-17	1403.92	1583.33	29.82%	69.62%	+14.88	5-8
1980-12-07	New Orleans Saints	W 38-35	1418.80	1321.51	67.56%	31.88%	+5.92	6-8
1980-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-35	1424.72	1594.27	23.59%	75.85%	-12.66	6-9
1980-12-21	Buffalo Bills	L 13-18	1412.06	1551.67	34.82%	64.62%	-8.34	6-10
1980-09-07	San Diego Chargers	L 13-34	1505.90	1563.83	46.09%	53.35%	-22.61	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1483.29	1458.69	48.56%	50.88%	+5.44	1-1
1980-09-21	New England Patriots	L 31-37	1488.73	1517.82	50.24%	49.20%	-13.16	1-2
1980-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-0	1475.57	1498.31	41.82%	57.62%	+23.05	2-2
1980-10-05	@ Houston Oilers	W 26-7	1498.62	1548.73	38.04%	61.40%	+28.61	3-2
1980-10-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-27	1527.23	1488.45	59.85%	39.59%	-31.34	3-3
1980-10-19	@ New York Jets	W 27-17	1495.89	1434.92	53.78%	45.66%	+15.45	4-3
1980-10-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-33	1511.34	1540.44	40.93%	58.51%	-19.11	4-4
1980-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-27	1492.23	1612.89	37.34%	62.10%	-10.58	4-5
1980-11-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-31	1481.65	1469.72	56.10%	43.34%	-6.00	4-6
1980-11-17	Oakland Raiders	L 17-19	1475.65	1578.99	39.70%	59.74%	-6.02	4-7
1980-11-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-36	1469.63	1526.88	37.08%	62.36%	-15.89	4-8
1980-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-51	1453.74	1615.21	24.44%	75.00%	-17.39	4-9
1980-12-07	New York Giants	L 21-27	1436.35	1349.53	66.24%	33.20%	-17.35	4-10
1980-12-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1419.00	1576.14	24.90%	74.54%	-7.07	4-11
1980-12-21	Denver Broncos	L 17-25	1411.93	1499.19	41.94%	57.50%	-12.70	4-12
1980-09-07	New York Giants	L 35-41	1476.42	1452.73	57.75%	41.69%	-15.12	0-1
1980-09-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1461.30	1454.11	46.06%	53.38%	-8.54	0-2
1980-09-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-20	1452.76	1503.76	37.92%	61.52%	-14.65	0-3
1980-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1438.11	1592.91	32.87%	66.57%	+22.50	1-3
1980-10-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 40-7	1460.61	1440.47	47.92%	51.52%	+31.67	2-3
1980-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-21	1492.28	1549.53	46.19%	53.25%	-13.99	2-4
1980-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-23	1478.29	1457.18	48.06%	51.38%	-24.66	2-5
1980-10-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-10	1453.63	1489.94	39.93%	59.51%	+16.83	3-5
1980-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1470.46	1609.75	34.86%	64.58%	-6.47	3-6
1980-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-33	1463.99	1544.49	42.88%	56.56%	-11.25	3-7
1980-11-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1452.74	1601.73	25.79%	73.65%	-8.75	3-8
1980-11-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-21	1443.99	1464.09	51.53%	47.91%	-15.59	3-9
1980-11-30	@ New York Giants	W 23-7	1428.40	1369.19	53.53%	45.91%	+19.66	4-9
1980-12-07	Detroit Lions	W 24-23	1448.06	1469.84	51.29%	48.15%	+5.15	5-9
1980-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1453.21	1635.89	22.26%	77.19%	-8.94	5-10
1980-12-21	Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1444.27	1458.57	52.36%	47.08%	-27.44	5-11
1980-09-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-12	1480.24	1480.55	44.99%	54.45%	+13.03	1-0
1980-09-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-9	1493.27	1490.62	54.78%	44.66%	+4.78	2-0
1980-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-28	1498.05	1542.70	38.79%	60.65%	-13.78	2-1
1980-09-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-34	1484.27	1483.06	54.58%	44.86%	-15.45	2-2
1980-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-23	1468.82	1465.31	45.54%	53.90%	-23.38	2-3
1980-10-12	Green Bay Packers	T 14-14	1445.44	1419.48	58.07%	41.37%	-0.44	2-3
1980-10-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1445.00	1514.29	35.48%	63.96%	-9.31	2-4
1980-10-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-23	1435.69	1418.23	47.53%	51.91%	+5.55	3-4
1980-11-02	New York Giants	W 30-13	1441.24	1372.67	63.87%	35.57%	+15.72	4-4
1980-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-24	1456.96	1596.81	34.79%	64.65%	-6.46	4-5
1980-11-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 30-38	1450.50	1492.16	39.20%	60.24%	-11.88	4-6
1980-11-23	Detroit Lions	L 10-24	1438.62	1464.04	50.76%	48.68%	-20.32	4-7
1980-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1418.30	1449.51	40.64%	58.80%	+10.89	5-7
1980-12-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-21	1429.19	1486.06	46.25%	53.20%	-16.42	5-8
1980-12-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-27	1412.77	1464.68	37.80%	61.64%	-14.60	5-9
1980-12-20	Chicago Bears	L 13-14	1398.17	1509.07	38.66%	60.78%	-4.14	5-10
1980-09-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-17	1518.48	1549.15	50.01%	49.43%	-20.02	0-1
1980-09-14	@ New York Giants	W 23-21	1498.46	1467.85	49.42%	50.02%	+7.57	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1506.03	1530.26	41.61%	57.83%	-7.72	1-2
1980-09-28	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-14	1498.31	1475.57	57.62%	41.82%	-23.05	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1475.26	1570.40	32.15%	67.29%	-10.90	1-4
1980-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1464.36	1509.50	38.72%	60.72%	-7.18	1-5
1980-10-19	St. Louis Cardinals	W 23-0	1457.18	1478.29	51.38%	48.06%	+24.66	2-5
1980-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 22-14	1481.84	1374.57	68.80%	30.64%	+9.30	3-5
1980-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-39	1491.14	1426.53	63.34%	36.10%	-33.86	3-6
1980-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-35	1457.28	1482.55	41.47%	57.97%	-16.62	3-7
1980-11-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-24	1440.66	1631.41	28.47%	70.97%	-14.96	3-8
1980-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-14	1425.70	1610.48	22.05%	77.39%	-4.73	3-9
1980-11-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-10	1420.97	1577.16	25.00%	74.44%	-5.37	3-10
1980-12-07	San Diego Chargers	W 40-17	1415.60	1612.91	27.71%	71.73%	+36.78	4-10
1980-12-13	New York Giants	W 16-13	1452.38	1366.87	66.07%	33.37%	+6.19	5-10
1980-12-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-7	1458.57	1444.27	47.08%	52.36%	+27.44	6-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1981-01-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 27-30	1598.40	1651.51	47.06%	52.94%	-8.67	0-1
1981-01-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1560.02	1598.22	39.94%	60.06%	-10.41	0-1
1981-01-04	Oakland Raiders	L 12-14	1565.39	1616.04	47.42%	52.58%	-7.13	0-1
1980-12-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-13	1630.94	1608.81	57.82%	42.18%	+20.57	1-0
1981-01-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-27	1651.51	1598.40	52.94%	47.06%	+8.67	2-0
1981-01-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1660.18	1641.93	47.93%	52.07%	-18.38	2-1
1980-12-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-27	1587.07	1595.02	44.18%	55.82%	-21.02	0-1
1980-12-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-34	1608.81	1630.94	42.18%	57.82%	-20.56	0-1
1981-01-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-31	1507.84	1629.95	29.09%	70.91%	-11.99	0-1
1980-12-28	Houston Oilers	W 27-7	1595.02	1587.07	55.82%	44.18%	+21.02	1-0
1981-01-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-12	1616.04	1565.39	52.58%	47.42%	+7.14	2-0
1981-01-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-27	1623.18	1608.63	47.39%	52.61%	+14.80	3-0
1981-01-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1637.98	1660.32	46.79%	53.21%	+23.35	4-0
1981-01-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-16	1629.95	1507.84	70.91%	29.09%	+11.98	1-0
1981-01-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-7	1641.93	1660.18	52.07%	47.93%	+18.39	2-0
1981-01-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-27	1660.32	1637.98	53.21%	46.79%	-23.34	2-1
1981-01-03	Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1598.22	1560.02	60.06%	39.94%	+10.41	1-0
1981-01-11	Oakland Raiders	L 27-34	1608.63	1623.18	52.61%	47.39%	-14.81	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1980-11-09	21.15%	@ New York Giants	1356.95	38	Dallas Cowboys	1616.23	35
2	1980-10-12	22.60%	Cincinnati Bengals	1452.37	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1631.63	16
3	1980-12-20	27.12%	New York Jets	1388.03	24	@ Miami Dolphins	1525.11	17
4	1980-12-07	27.71%	@ Washington Redskins	1415.60	40	San Diego Chargers	1612.91	17
5	1980-11-30	29.82%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1403.92	21	New England Patriots	1583.33	17
6	1980-11-09	30.49%	Denver Broncos	1498.75	20	@ San Diego Chargers	1607.31	13
7	1980-11-23	30.61%	@ New York Jets	1400.27	31	Houston Oilers	1573.14	28
8	1980-10-20	30.63%	Oakland Raiders	1516.04	45	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1623.41	34
9	1980-11-09	32.04%	Miami Dolphins	1479.96	35	@ Los Angeles Rams	1575.93	14
10	1980-09-14	32.26%	Atlanta Falcons	1452.25	37	@ New England Patriots	1546.55	21
11	1980-10-05	32.85%	Kansas City Chiefs	1427.80	31	@ Oakland Raiders	1517.37	17
12	1980-09-28	32.87%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1438.11	24	Philadelphia Eagles	1592.91	14
13	1980-10-12	33.04%	New York Jets	1416.14	14	@ Atlanta Falcons	1504.23	7
14	1980-12-07	33.20%	New York Giants	1349.53	27	@ Seattle Seahawks	1436.35	21
15	1980-12-14	33.27%	Cincinnati Bengals	1435.05	17	@ Chicago Bears	1521.32	14
16	1980-09-21	33.29%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1463.45	30	Pittsburgh Steelers	1614.93	28
17	1980-10-05	33.69%	Buffalo Bills	1546.97	26	@ San Diego Chargers	1629.97	24
18	1980-12-14	34.15%	New Orleans Saints	1315.59	21	@ New York Jets	1395.01	20
19	1980-11-23	34.25%	Green Bay Packers	1425.37	25	@ Minnesota Vikings	1504.03	13
20	1980-09-07	34.37%	Detroit Lions	1444.72	41	@ Los Angeles Rams	1522.50	20
21	1980-11-30	34.57%	Cincinnati Bengals	1403.45	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1479.69	6
22	1980-10-05	35.38%	Baltimore Colts	1468.97	30	@ Miami Dolphins	1539.03	17
23	1980-09-21	35.84%	Minnesota Vikings	1447.52	34	@ Chicago Bears	1514.09	14
24	1980-12-07	36.03%	Atlanta Falcons	1582.53	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1647.63	17
25	1980-11-02	36.10%	Minnesota Vikings	1426.53	39	@ Washington Redskins	1491.14	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1980-12-07	36.78	@ Washington Redskins	40	1415.60	27.71%	San Diego Chargers	17	1612.91	71.73%
2	1980-11-02	33.86	Minnesota Vikings	39	1426.53	36.10%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1491.14	63.34%
3	1980-11-09	33.01	Miami Dolphins	35	1479.96	32.04%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1575.93	67.40%
4	1980-09-07	31.88	Detroit Lions	41	1444.72	34.37%	@ Los Angeles Rams	20	1522.50	65.07%
5	1980-11-09	31.77	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1460.39	48.52%	Detroit Lions	0	1501.40	50.92%
6	1980-10-05	31.67	St. Louis Cardinals	40	1460.61	47.92%	@ New Orleans Saints	7	1440.47	51.52%
7	1980-10-12	31.35	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1488.45	39.59%	@ Seattle Seahawks	3	1527.23	59.85%
8	1980-09-21	30.41	Minnesota Vikings	34	1447.52	35.84%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1514.09	63.60%
9	1980-12-07	29.64	@ Chicago Bears	61	1491.68	61.80%	Green Bay Packers	7	1438.62	37.64%
10	1980-12-15	29.16	@ Los Angeles Rams	38	1571.13	43.79%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1645.22	55.65%
11	1980-09-14	28.73	Atlanta Falcons	37	1452.25	32.26%	@ New England Patriots	21	1546.55	67.19%
12	1980-10-05	28.61	Seattle Seahawks	26	1498.62	38.04%	@ Houston Oilers	7	1548.73	61.40%
13	1980-09-14	27.99	Philadelphia Eagles	42	1546.87	55.26%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1475.51	44.18%
14	1980-12-21	27.44	Washington Redskins	31	1458.57	47.08%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	7	1444.27	52.36%
15	1980-09-14	27.16	Detroit Lions	29	1476.60	45.31%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1474.71	54.14%
16	1980-10-05	26.63	Kansas City Chiefs	31	1427.80	32.85%	@ Oakland Raiders	17	1517.37	66.59%
17	1980-09-14	26.47	@ Denver Broncos	41	1506.62	45.43%	Dallas Cowboys	20	1569.17	54.01%
18	1980-11-30	25.95	Cincinnati Bengals	20	1403.45	34.57%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	6	1479.69	64.87%
19	1980-11-02	25.55	Atlanta Falcons	30	1518.94	39.69%	@ Buffalo Bills	14	1556.98	59.75%
20	1980-10-12	25.31	@ Oakland Raiders	38	1490.74	36.18%	San Diego Chargers	24	1620.03	63.26%
21	1980-10-26	24.90	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1532.09	44.57%	New England Patriots	13	1600.69	54.87%
22	1980-12-07	24.81	@ Kansas City Chiefs	31	1453.74	43.16%	Denver Broncos	14	1532.26	56.28%
23	1980-10-05	24.69	Baltimore Colts	30	1468.97	35.38%	@ Miami Dolphins	17	1539.03	64.07%
24	1980-10-19	24.66	@ Washington Redskins	23	1457.18	51.38%	St. Louis Cardinals	0	1478.29	48.06%
25	1980-10-20	24.40	Oakland Raiders	45	1516.04	30.63%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1623.41	68.81%